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Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot (Apr. 2)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the latest edition of the Saturday Slapshot where we’ll be focusing on tonight’s 7 game main slate of NHL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re at the point of the year where teams are either playing for their playoff lives or jockeying for position. Thankfully, hockey is not like the NBA and we rarely see major players sitting out at the tail end of the season.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

Connor Hellebuyck ($7.8K DK/$7.2k FD) vs. Los Angeles Kings – We should see Hellebuyck in net tonight for the Jets in a home matchup vs. the Los Angeles Kings. Hellebuyck has back-to-back really solid outings, with 26 DK points against Buffalo and 22 points against Arizona. This is a similar match tonight for Hellebuyck as the Kings haven’t really been scoring. Over the last month, they’re scoring just 2.5 goals per game. This is a good sport for Hellebuyck to continue his solid recent play. He should be one of the top goalies on the night.

Jake Oettinger ($7.9k DK/$7.5k FD) vs. San Jose Sharks – The San Jose Sharks are just not a team that should strike fear into any goaltender. Over the last month, they’re scoring just 2.6 goals per game and outside of their top line, they have very little firepower. Oettinger has been a great story for the Stars this NHL season, with a 24-11-1 record and a GAA below 2.5. He’s won 5 of the last 7 games he’s started and tonight should make it 6 of 8.

Tonight with Goaltending I’m not going to stray too far from the two I mentioned. I will be locking in one of the two and just moving on. The only other goaltender I have any interest in is Jeremy Swayman, but he’s pricey on DK and I just don’t think I want to go that high for him.

Stacks

Toronto 1 (Matthews, Marner, Buntin) vs. Philadelphia

This line is going to be chalky, there’s no denying it. The Leafs are playing a Flyers team that is giving up almost 4 goals per game over the past month. That’s laughably high and it’s something we’ll want to take advantage of tonight. There isn’t much I need to say about Matthews to try to sell you on playing him. He’s already at the 50 goal mark and he’s at the point where he’s chasing 100 points. He’s one of, if not the best player in the NHL.

There isn’t much time left in the season for him to get there, but my guess is that he puts a dent into that number tonight. The duo of Matthews and Marner will be pricey tonight, but it will be well worth it. The two have combined for 19 points over their last 5 games and close to 40 scoring chances.

Tampa Bay 1 (Point, Kucherov, Stamkos) vs. Montreal

If you want to fade Toronto tonight, another option is Tampa Bay 1 tonight. Montreal is Montreal and they give up a ton of goals. They gave up close to 3.6 goals per game in the month of March. Brayden Point is playing some great hockey and if I do decide to fade Toronto, he’d be a priority. Over hist last 5 games he has 8 points and 20 scoring chances.

Between him and Stamkos, they have 42 scoring chances, 15 of which are considered to be high danger chances. The two of them will also come at a $4k discount over Matthews and Marner, making the rest of your team solid and not having to punt as much. I think I just sold myself on playing Tampa over Toronto today.

Boston 2 (Haula, Hall, Pastrnak) vs. Columbus

What going to Tampa 1 allows you to do tonight is to also grab some of Boston. Boston is playing Columbus tonight and they are always someone we want to play against. In March the Blue Jackets gave up more than 4 goals per game. That’s an accomplishment not worth bragging about.

I’m going down to their second line and playing Pasta and Haula. Haula is just $3.5k on DK tonight but he’s playing well above that salary. Over his last 5 games, he has 2 goals and 6 assists for 8 points. At his salary, he’s close to a free square. This line should combine to be one of the top lines on the slate as Boston obliterates Columbus.

Other stacks (Dal 1, Cgy 1 and 2, Stl 1, WPG 1, Phi 1)

Top Value NHL Defenseman

Noah Hanifin – $3.9k on DK – Always good for a few blocked shots and shots per game. Opens up salary.
Jacob Middleton – $2.7k on Dk – Back-to-back games with 3 blocks and some shots. Great value.
Jaycob Megna – $2.6k on DK and continues to have no regard for his body
Matt Dumba – $4.4k on DK – Double-digit points in 5 of his last 6 games. Should be over $5k. Great value.

NHL DFS Summary

We have some great offensive teams in just unbelievable positions tonight. Toronto is going to be extremely popular tonight. You’ll need to decide to play or fade them. If you fade, I may, Tampa is in just as good of a spot tonight and come in much cheaper. That’ll make the rest of your team that much better.

Make sure to use our optimizer before setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot (Mar. 26)

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to latest edition of the Saturday Slapshot where we’ll be focusing on tonight’s 9 game main slate of NHL on DraftKings and FanDuel. Teams are now at the point where they are jockeying for playoff positions. Thankfully, hockey is not like the NBA and we rarely see major players sitting out in the tail end of the season

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

James Reimer ($7.9K DK/$7.2k FD) vs. Anaheim Ducks – Reimer is far from a sexy name, but the man’s been getting the job done and won’t cost us an arm and a leg, especially if you’re playing NHL DFS on FanDuel where he’s only $7.2k. If we look at Reimer’s play of late, it hasn’t been that bad as he back-to-back wins with one of them coming against a solid Flames team. Reimer hasn’t allowed more than 3 goals in more than a month and with the Ducks’ offense now anemic, he stands a good chance of being one of the higher scoring goalies on the night.

Sergei Bobrovsky ($8.5k DK/$8.8k FD) vs. Ottawa Senators – If you find yourself with some extra cash laying around tonight, Bob should be your guy. He’s riding a 4 game winning streak and gets to face a Senators team scoring just 2.3 goals per game over the past month. With how powerful of a lineup the Panthers have built, I just don’t see a scenario tonight where Bob doesn’t get at least the W tonight. He’s probably more suited though for cash games if you’re a cash game player.

Stacks

We have some pretty clear spots for offense tonight. Toronto is in as good of a spot as they can be against a Canadiens team giving up more than 3.5 goals per game over the past month. The top line for Toronto will be extremely popular tonight, and rightfully so. I’m not going to write them up as a stack because they are an obvious play. They are just super expensive. My goal with my top 3 stacks tonight will be to find a way to be a little different than your competition in tournaments.

Montreal 1 (Suzuki, Caufield, Anderson) + Petry vs. Toronto

This game between 2 historic Canadian franchises has the makings of a high-scoring slate. We already know what the Maple Leafs can do on offense, but did you know that of all the teams playing tonight, no team is giving up more goals per game than the Leafs over the past month? That’s right, and tonight they turn over the crease to Erik Kallgren who met Mr. Regression in his last NHL start.

This top-line for Montreal is pretty good and pretty cheap. MSL has really tapped into the talent of Caufield as he has 4 goals in his last 5 games and has a very bright future in the NHL. The combo of Suzuki and Caufield will cost just a shade over $10k over on DK tonight. That same combo has combined for over 30 scoring chances in their last 5. They may go overlooked on the slate tonight, but they should do well.

Minnesota 1 (Hartman, Kaprizov, Zuccarello) vs. Columbus

Absolutely love this spot for the Wild tonight. The Wild really haven’t been blowing away the competition of late, but they are in a great spot tonight. Columbus is giving up 4 goals per game over the past month and will more than likely have Berube in net tonight. On the year, Berube has a 3.25 GAA a the NHL level. Although he has a small sample size, he doesn’t have a single game giving up less than 3 goals.

My core with the Wild tonight will be Hartman and Kaprizov as Zuc is in a little bit of a funk with his game offensively right now. Hartman and Kaprizov have combined for 6 goals and 10 points in their last 5 games. They should be able to put up a few goals tonight against a poor defensive team.

Florida 2 (Huberdeau, Duclair, Bennett) vs. Ottawa

I’ve actually used Forsberg this season more than I’ve stacked against him. He’s been extremely solid this year. That said, he’s in for a tough task tonight. This Florida team is stacked from top to bottom. Their top 3 lines can all take over a game. Tonight I’m going to go with their second line. Although their top line is one of the best in the game, Barkov is expensive and isn’t exactly playing his best hockey of late.

This second line has been really good. Over their last 5 games, they’ve combined for nearly 40 scoring chances and a handful of goals. While Bennett is solid, my core will be Huberdeau and Duclair. They are the guys with the offensive prowess and should do well against Ottawa.

Other stacks (Tor 1 and 2, Florida 1 and 3, Edm 1, Cgy 1, SJ 1)

Top Value Defenseman

Jeff Petry – $4k on DK – Keep an eye on his status as he’s a GTD, but always good for shots and blocks.
Alexander Romanov – $2.9k on Dk – 4 out of his last 5 games he’s had double digit points
Jaycob Megna – $2.5k on DK and has 16 blocked shots in his last 5
Vince Dunn – $3.4k on DK – becoming a bigger part of the offense in Seattle

Summary

There should be a ton of offense on tonight’s slate. Toronto should score a ton of goals and although they aren’t in my top stacks section, they are 100% in play. I just wanted to be a bit different since they will be chalky. Florida should also score a ton of goals tonight. Don’t sleep on Edmonton either tonight as they are facing a Calgary team that played last night.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot (Feb. 26)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot where I’ll be highlighting some of my top plays for tonight’s NHL DFS slate on Fanduel and DraftKings. Tonight we have a solid 7 game main slate.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

Jeremy Swayman ($8.2k DK/$8.1k FD) vs. San Jose Sharks – Over the past month, the Sharks have not been able to muster much offense. They’ve been averaging just 2.44 goals per game over the last 30 days. Guys like Hertl and Meier have gone ice cold and because of that, I’m happy to use a goalie against them tonight.

Swayman himself has been pretty good of late. Over his last 4 contests, he hasn’t scored less than 19 DK points and has only given up 4 goals over that stretch. He’s in a great spot tonight and I plan on going heavy on him. He’s already been confirmed as the starter tonight.

Andrew Hammond ($7.2k DK/$6.9k FD) vs.Ottawa Senators – Another team struggling to score goals right now is the Ottawa Senators. Since January 26, they’ve been averaging just 2.21 goals per game. That’s bad. Hammond hasn’t played much this season. In fact, he’s only played in one contest but he fared extremely well against the Islanders, stopping 30 of 32 shots. He’s not safe by any means. But he’s extremely cheap and opens up a ton of salary for us to spend on offense tonight.

Stacks

Montreal 1 (Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Josh Anderson) + Jeff Petry

If you would have told me a month ago that I’d be writing up a Canadiens line as one of my favorite lines, I would have laughed at you. Martin St. Louis has changed the culture around the team. They’re currently riding a 4 game winning streak since MSL took over behind the bench and are finally playing some inspired hockey. With Montreal, it all starts the kid Cole Caufield.

Over his last 5 games he has 4 goals and 4 assists. He has a solid 19 scoring chances over that stretch as well. He’s making things happen right now and is somehow still priced under $5k on DK. I’m going to side with Anderson on this stack, although I wouldn’t blame if you go with Suzuki or all 3. Anderson is just $3.7k tonight on DK and has 3 goals in his last 5. Look for the good times to keep rolling against the Senators tonight.

Toronto 1 (Matthews, Bunting, Marner) + Reilly

With the savings we’re getting from the Canadiens tonight, we should be able to squeeze in the expensive and explosive Maple Leafs against the Red Wings tonight. If we look at what the Red Wings have done defensively over their last 10 games, they’re someone that we can attack. They’ve been averaging 4.20 goals against over their last 10. That’s the highest on the slate. It’s been due to some really poor goaltending as their goalies have just an 87% save percentage over their past 10.

When it comes to the Leafs’ offense, it all starts with Matthews. I saw an interesting stat about him the other day. Over his last 100 games, he has scored 77 goals. That’s an insane pace. The duo of Matthews and Marner is one of the best in the league. They are extremely expensive as they’ll combine for $17.2k on DK tonight. The cheap way to go here is to pair Matthews with Bunting tonight. The Leafs should put up a crooked number tonight and I’ll want a part of it.

Ottawa 1 (Stutzle, Tkachuk, Gaudette) + Chabot

I know, I recommended Hammond tonight. He’s a risky play and if you aren’t comfortable playing him, I’d recommend going with some Senators tonight. The Canadiens are playing much better hockey since MSL took over. That’s undeniable. That said though, it’s still the same personnel that’s been hot garbage for the majority of the year. While they’ve been solid for 4, over their last 11 games they are still giving up almost 4 goals per game. At some point the honeymoon will be over and the Canadiens defense will come back down to earth.

It’s entirely possible it happens tonight. While the Senators haven’t been scoring much, they still have some pieces that are doing well and are inexpensive. Stutzle has 4 goals over his past 5 games to go along with 13 scoring chances. While Tkachuk hasn’t been overly productive, he still has 18 scoring chances over his last 5, 7 of which were high danger chances. He’s got all the talent in the world and can easily blow up tonight against the Canadiens.

Other stacks (TB 1 and 2, Col 1, Nash 1, Det 1 and 2, CGY 1 and 2)

Top Defenseman

Moritz Seider
Thomas Chabot
Mikhail Sergachev
Brayden McNabb
Roman Josi
Christopher Tanev
Cale Makar

Summary

We have some high-powered offenses going tonight with the Leafs, Avalanche, and Flames in action. I love the Canadiens/Senators game as a potential game stack tonight. 2 suspect defenses going in that one.

Make sure to use our optimizer when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Nov. 6)

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot. I’m Jared and I’ll be your host. Tonight we have a solid 10 game slate where I’ll be highlighting some of my top plays for tonight’s NHL slate on Fanduel and Draftkings.

Before we dive in I want to highlight some terms you’ll see in my article that may be foreign to you:

Corsi – Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout
Even Strength – Play where both teams have the same number of players (including goalies) on the ice. Includes 5v5, 4v4, 3v3
Power Play – Play where the team has more players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 5v4, 5v3, 4v3
Penalty Kill – Play where the team has fewer players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 4v5, 3v4, 3v5

Goaltending

Craig Anderson ($7.9k DK/$6.9k FD) vs. Detroit Red Wings – I really love the spot tonight for Anderson. He hit a little bit of a bump in the road in his last start against San Jose but the Sharks are better than advertised. On the year Anderson has a solid .921 save % and 2.49 GAA. He’s facing a Red Wings team tonight that is currently struggling.

They’re riding a 4 game losing streak and have only scored once in 2 games in November. The Red Wings should also be without their Captain in Dylan Larkin who is away from the team for personal reason. I’m a big fan of him on both sites tonight, especially FD where he’s below $7k.

Robin Lehner ($7.8K DK/$7.4k FD) vs. Montreal Canadiens – If Lehner gets the nod in goal tonight I’m a big fan of him being one of the top goalies on the night. He’s coming off his best outing of the year after stopping 38 of 39 shots from the Senators. While he’s had a few rough outings this season so far, he also has a very solid .915 save %.

The Golden Knights give up a ton of shots and Lehner is facing a team tonight in the Canadiens that have one of the worst shooting %’s in the league at just 6.88%. Look for the Canadiens to fire a bunch of pucks on net tonight with Lehner saving almost all of them. He’s a solid pick on both sites.

Igor Shesterkin ($7.3k DK/$7.9k FD) vs. Calgary Flames – The price of Shesterkin on DK tonight seems a bit low for a goaltender with a .943 save % and just a 1.85 GAA. Shesty as us Rangers fans like to call him has been one of the best goalies in the league so far. He’s reached at least 22 points in 4 of his 8 starts this year with 2 of them being over 30. Rangers give up close to 33 shots per game so we know there will be a ton of volume and volume is good for goalies in DFS. Flames have started out November pretty slow with back to back losses. Look for them to make it 3 straight losses tonight as they get stonewalled by Shesterkin.

Stacks

Buffalo 1 (Thompson/Skinner/Asplund/Dahlin)

The Red Wings have been one of the more defensively challenged teams so far on this young season. They have a corsi of 44% which is one of the worst numbers of the 20 teams on the ice tonight. They’re also giving up more than 3.5 goals per game. I’m going to target Detroit with the top line of Buffalo who has been pretty solid over their last 5 games.

Combined the group of Thompson, Skinner, and Asplund have 6 goals over the last 5 games and 12 points. They correlate very well together as they play together on the power play as well. Asplund is the cheapest of the bunch at just $3.6k tonight on DK and has been the most productive with 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 5. Buffalo is one of the my favorite teams on the night and they are extremely affordable.

Washington 1 (Ovechkin/Kuznetsov/Wilson/Carlson)

Our first stack in the Sabres was cheap and it opens up salary for us to be able to afford Ovechkin(Ovi). Ovi is on a heater right now with 5 goals and 8 points over his last 5 games. Philly hasn’t been giving too many goals this year, but it’s not for a lack of trying.

They’re giving up more than 33 shots per game and nearly 14 high danger chances per game. There will be a ton of volume for the Capitals in terms of shots and the Capitals are a team that loves to shoot the puck. While I love the entire line tonight, it’s possible that I end up just pairing Ovi with Carlson. Carlson is playing extremely well right now and I want a piece of him. He has points in 3 straight and has been averaging more than 4 shots plus bocks in those. The two of them also play together on the power play.

Vegas PP1 (Stephenson/Dadonov/Smith/Pietrangelo)

This is probably the Canadiens last game before they get Carey Price back and I want to take advantage of the spot. Jake Allen isn’t a bad goalie, but he’s not Carey Price. The Canadiens have struggled quite a bit this year, with goaltending being part of the problem.

They’re giving up more than 3 goals per games this year thanks to a save % less than 90. My thought process with picking Vegas top power play has to do with the fact that no team has given up more power play goals this season than the Canadiens. So far this year they’ve given up 15 goals when down at least a man.

While Vegas’ power play isn’t as strong with guys like Karlsson out, I still like their chances tonight. My core here would Stephenson and Dadonov as they play together at even strength too. Over the last 5 games, Stephenson and Dadonov have combined for 4 goals and 5 assists. They should do well tonight.

Other stacks (Colorado 1, Winnipeg 1, Seattle 2, San Jose 2, Toronto 1)

Top Defenseman

Brent Burns – San Jose
Adam Fox – New York Rangers
Moritz Seider – Detroit Red Wings
Filip Hronek – Detroit Red Wings
Shea Theodore – Vegas Golden Knights

Summary

On tap tonight we have an original 6 match up with the Boston Bruins heading to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs and we also have also have 4 teams (Rangers, Jets, Devils, and Coyotes) on the tail end of back to back games. While I didn’t write them up as one of my top 3 stacks tonight, I do really love the spot for the Seattle tonight. They’re facing a struggling Coyotes team that will also have tired legs.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Oct. 30)

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot. I’m Jared and I’ll be your host. Tonight we have a solid 8 game slate where I’ll be highlighting some of my top NHL DFS plays on Fanduel and Draftkings.

Before we dive in I want to highlight some terms you’ll see in my article that may be foreign to you:

Corsi – Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout
Even Strength – Play where both teams have the same number of players (including goalies) on the ice. Includes 5v5, 4v4, 3v3
Power Play – Play where the team has more players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 5v4, 5v3, 4v3
Penalty Kill – Play where the team has fewer players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 4v5, 3v4, 3v5

Goaltending

Thomas Greiss $6.9k DK/$6.7k FD) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Greiss burned me last weekend when I made him my top goaltending pick, but I’m going right back to the well. From a cost standpoint, Greiss has a great chance of returning some solid value tonight. He’s been in the net 4 times so far this season and has reached at least 17 DK points in 3 of those outings.

He’s facing a Maple Leafs team tonight that has struggled to put the puck in the net. They’re averaging over 34 shots per game and only scoring on average 2 goals. Greiss should face a barrage of shots tonight and that’s what we want to see from our goalie. While there’s a good chance he lets in a few goals tonight, he also stands a great chance of getting that 35 save bonus tonight.

Spencer Knight ($7.6K DK/$8.6k FD) vs. Boston Bruins – This is strictly a DraftKings play tonight as I don’t want to pay $8.6k for Knight, let alone really any goalie. Like Greiss, Knight is facing a Bruins that has been struggling to find the back of the net. Of all the teams playing tonight, the Bruins have one of the worst shooting %’s to start the year.

They’re averaging 34 shots per game and only 2.5 goals. At some point the Bruins are going to explode, I just don’t think it’s tonight. Look for Knight and his fellow Panthers to continue to roll and get to 9-0 tonight.

Mike Smith ($7.7k DK/$8k FD) vs. Vancouver Canucks – Mike Smith is expected to return from the IR tonight and if he does, I’m a big fan of this spot. You’ll notice a trend with my goal picks. Pick a goalie vs. a team that shoots a lot but doesn’t score a lot. Like the Maple Leafs and Bruins, the Canucks fit that mold.

On the year they’ve been averaging around 32 shots per game but only scoring 2.5 goals. Any time I can try to snag a goaltender that has a realistic shot at getting the 35 save bonus on DK, I’m going to jump at it. In Smith, we have that chance tonight as the Oilers have been giving up over 37 shots per game. If Smith does not suit up tonight and they go with Koskinen, I’m also a fan of his.

Stacks

Edmonton 1 (McDavid/Hyman/Puljujarvi/Bouchard)

You could put any 2 scrubs on the McDavid’s line against the best defensive team in the league and I’ll still recommend his line. In McDavid we’re witnessing the best player to the play the game since the Greztky/Lemieux era. Sorry Penguins fans, McDavid is greater than peak Crosby and it’s not even close.

Over his last 5 games McDavid is averaging close to 3 points per game. That’s an absurd pace and while there is always a chance that he gets a goose egg, I’m willing to take that chance. Even at his price. McDavid and his peers get to take on a Canucks team that has been prone to giving up some high danger chances as they’re giving up nearly 12 per game. High danger chances equals a greater chance of giving up goals. I love this line tonight and so should you.

St. Louis PP1 (Tarasenko/Schenn/Perron/Krug)

Vladimir Tarasenko is a must play on DK and IMO is also a free square. I know, you must be thinking that I’m crazy for calling someone that is $6,100 a free square. Tarasenko is on absolute fire right now and his price hasn’t even come close to catching up to his production. He’s had 4 straight games with at least 20 DK points. I don’t see him cooling down tonight as the Blues play arguably the worst team in the league tonight in the Blackhawks.

Of all the teams playing tonight the Blackhawks are averaging the most goals against at 4.5 goals per game to start the year. The Blues stand a great chance to put up a big number tonight. Tarasenko will be your core here and if you want to get some savings and not play the PP1 from St. Louis, you could pair him with Robert Thomas (not the same guy from Matchbox Twenty).

Maple Leafs 1 (Matthews/Buntin/Nylander/Reilly)

If you end up fading Greiss tonight, I’d recommend using the Maple Leafs top line. At some point the Maple Leafs are going to have their explosion and it could very well be tonight against a defensively challenged Red Wings team. The Red Wings are giving up a ton of high danger chances so far this year. In fact, no team on tonight’s slate is giving up more than them. Giving up 15 high danger chances per game is going to bite you more often than not.

With the Leafs, it all starts with Auston Matthews. While Matthews only has 2 points in his last 5 games, it hasn’t been for a lack of trying with his near 4.5 shots per game. Over his last 5 games he has an individual corsi of 45 which leads all skaters on tonight’s slate. He’s firing at all angles and at some point, they’ll find the back of the net.

Other stacks (Winnipeg 2, San Jose 1, Minnesota 1, Detroit 1)

Top Defenseman

Brent Burns – San Jose
Matt Dumba – Minnesota Wild
Seth Jones – Chicago Blackhawks
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Vancouver Canucks
Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers
Aaron Ekblad – Florida Panthers

Summary

We have a great slate tonight with 8 games on top. I plan on prioritizing both McDavid and Tarasenko (DK) tonight and building their line mates around them. If you want to game stack, the SJ/WPG game should be high scoring.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

NHL Sports Betting Premium

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Playoff Preview (First Round). A little different than my daily game pick articles. The NHL Playoffs are finally here! After a grueling 56-game season we are down to 16 teams. With the nuances of scheduling this year, each team will have a mini bracket within their division and then each team who makes it out of their division will be re-seeded for the Final 4. Not too many surprises with who made the playoffs. Here are the 16 teams who will be playing in the First Round:

We have some great First Round matchups. I will preview each series, post each series price and give my predictions. I will also keep a tracker for my entire slate of playoff bets, as I have some futures on who makes it out of their division, as well as who wins Lord Stanley. I will provide that info at the end as well as some general thoughts for betting the NHL Playoffs. Without further ado, let’s dive into the series.

East Division

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. #4 New York Islanders (+121)

Season Series: Penguins: 6-2-0, Islanders: 2-4-2

Preview: The Penguins sport the best home record in the league and have home-ice advantage in this series. They should be fully healthy with the returns of Malkin a few games ago and Tanev is projected to be ready for Game 1. The Penguins had a great season and are well deserved to be at the top of this division. The Islanders started of the season very nicely and were battling for first, but things unraveled for them after the Trade Deadline. The Penguins are known for their offense and the Islanders for their defense, but both teams can handle their own on the opposite spectrums as well. The Penguins are 2nd in GF over their last 20 games while the Islanders are 30th. The major X-factor right now is the health of Islanders’ top goaltender Seymon Varlamov. Sporting top-5 goaltending numbers this season, if he is unable to play than the Islanders will have to rely on Russian rookie Ilya Sorokin, who has decent numbers himself but not to the standard of Varlamov. Two teams trending in opposite directions leaves me no choice in my prediction.

Prediction: Penguins 4-1

#2 Washington Capitals (+118) vs. #3 Boston Bruins (-143)

Season Series: Capitals: 4-4-0, Bruins 4-2-2

Preview: What a series this should play out to be. We have the 2018 Stanley Cup Champions versus the 2019 Stanley Cup Runner-Ups. We have the return of Zdeno Chara who spent 14 seasons with Boston and was the longest-tenured captain in the league before signing with Washington as a free agent in the offseason. Each team won 4 matchups against the other this season. The Capitals surprisingly are an underdog in this series, and that must be attributed to Boston’s recent form. They have been a freight train after acquiring Hall, Reilly, and Lazar at the Trade Deadline. The Bruins could not score pretty much all season but then finally woke up the last month. The Caps meanwhile have been battling injury concerns to their star players and also had to deal with the Tom Wilson/Battle of New York saga. The Bruins have been rolling and have been in the top-10 in offensive metrics over their last 20 games. The thing with the Capitals is their underlying numbers were not that good but they could mitigate that with their scoring talent. However, recently the Capitals haven’t been able to do that. Goaltending is also interesting for both teams as the Capitals will roll with the inexperienced tandem of Samsanov/Vanacek, while the Bruins will probably start with Rask but rookie Swayman could make a case for deserving that net. With the Bruins rolling and actually low key dominating their season series with Washington analytically despite it being tied 4-4, I have no choice here.

Prediction: Bruins 4-2

Central Division

#1 Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. #4 Nashville Predators (+190)

Season Series: Hurricanes: 6-2-0, Predators: 2-5-1

Preview: The Hurricanes have dominated this season series over Nashville winning 6 of 8. The Predators snuck into the playoffs on the curtails of Juuse Saros incredible goaltending. The Hurricanes offense has been rolling all season and there is no reason to see that slowing down here. A hot goaltender can change the complexion of a series, no doubt. But Saros will need to stand on his head to steal this one from Carolina. Nashville held their own in their matchups against Carolina this year despite only winning 2 of 8. Hurricanes offense, defense, and special teams have been better all season. The only edge you can really give to Nashville is goaltending. And there is a chance Mrazek/Ned can get on a roll and even out that edge. I feel generous to say the Preds won’t roll Carolina, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they do.

Prediction: Hurricanes 4-2

#2 Florida Panthers (+116) vs. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning (-143)

Season Series: Panthers: 5-2-1, Lightning: 3-5-0

Preview: The Battle of Florida. These teams do not like each other and this has the potential to be an absolute battle and best series of the first round. You could argue Tampa underperformed a little bit this year as the defending champs finishing 3rd in their division. But they were without their best player Nikita Kucherov all season and captain Steven Stamkos for the last 10 or so games. Kucherov is projected to be ready for the playoffs so we will see if he can come back right in stride or has some rust. The Panthers on the other hand had quite the season and outperformed expectations to a 2nd place finish in the division. A devastating blow to star defenseman Aaron Ekblad who sustained a season-ending injury with about 15 games to go. However Mackenzie Weegar has picked up the slack on the back end. Goaltending is where Tampa will display quite the edge with reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Bolts and probably Chris Dreidger in net for Florida, with Bobrovsky and rookie Spencer Knight there in case Dreidger falters. With the Lightning having some injury concerns and coming off a long cup run, I am going against the grain here.

Prediction: Panthers 4-3

North Division

#1 Toronto Maple Leafs (-275) vs. #4 Montreal Canadiens (+210)

Season Series: Maple Leafs: 7-2-1, Canadiens: 3-6-1

Preview: The Maple Leafs have been viewed as the favorites to make it out of the North Division since Day 1, and are actually the only team with minus odds (-135) to make it out of their division of the entire league. They will be squaring up with a Canadiens team that has been hot and cold all season. They started off really hot and people were even thinking they might be better than Toronto, then went ice cold and fired their coach, before finishing the season relatively strong. Defense is their specialty but they’ve had to deal with multiple injuries on the back end. It’s unclear if they will go with their most expensive asset (Carey Price) or the goaltender who has performed better this season (Jake Allen) for this series. Nothing would surprise me and could potentially see the Canadiens pulling an upset if they get hot, but the Leafs are definitely the stronger team and should take care of this series.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 4-2

#2 Edmonton Oilers (-186) vs. #3 Winnipeg Jets (+150)

Season Series: Oilers: 7-2-0, Jets 2-7-0

Preview: Two teams that are going in opposite directions. Behind the incredible season from Connor McDavid, Edmonton has had a strong end to the season. Winnipeg has been reeling behind all sorts of defensive problems all season, as well as an injury to their strongest winger in Nikolaj Ehlers. Luckily for Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goaltender in the league and the kind of goalie who can steal a series. The problem is the defense in front of him has been bad all year and towards the end of the season he had some games where he didn’t stand on his head. Oilers goalie Mike Smith has actually had quite a surprising season as a 39-year-old veteran on the last legs of his career. With the way McDavid and Draisaitl have been rolling all season, I cannot go against the best player(s) in the league.

Prediction: Oilers 4-2

West Division

#1 Colorado Avalanche (-335) vs. #4 St. Louis Blues (+255)

Season Series: Avalanche: 5-3-0, Blues: 3-5-0

Preview: The Stanley Cup favorite and Presidents’ Trophy winning Avalanche begin their Cup run against the 2018 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues. The Avs have probably the strongest and deepest team in the 16-team field this year. They’ve dealt with some COVID and injury issues all season but should be healthy rolling into playoffs. This is the biggest series discrepancy based on Vegas lines as well as my Model. The Blues have been inconsistent this season and Binnington hasn’t played to the level he did when they won the Cup in 2018. The addition of Krug in the offseason was supposed to cancel out the loss of Pietrangelo, but it hasn’t been that simple. The Avs are a wagon and even though the Blues have playoff experience, I will rely on the data and the models here.

Prediction: Avalanche 4-1

#2 Vegas Golden Knights (-240) vs. #3 Minnesota Wild (+190)

Season Series: Golden Knights: 3-4-1, Wild: 5-1-2

Preview: Viewed as one of the favorites to win the Cup coming into the season, the Golden Knights have quite the draw in the First Round. Losing the top seed and Presidents’ Trophy with the Avs win last night, Vegas goes from playing a weaker St. Louis team to a young and exciting Minnesota team. To make matters even worse Minnesota has had Vegas’ number all season with only 1 regulation loss for Minnesota in 8 matchups. Vegas is deep at every position and will be interesting to see if they roll out Fluery or Lehner in net, both goalies are more than capable. Minnesota on the other side has been riding the coattails of exciting rookie Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov. With stronger than expected defensive and goaltending results they cruised to a 3rd place finish in the division and face a team they have matched up well against all season. There is definite series price value on Minnesota if you are looking for an upset to happen as there always is plenty in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I’m going to ride with the team I am confident can make a Cup run, but would not be surprised either way.

Prediction: Golden Knights 4-3

Current Bets and Notes

My approach for this playoff season is to ride a few Cup futures, bet some teams to make it out of their divisions, and then take any series or series spreads I think have some value. From there I might bet an individual game where I see value on a team or think the other team has a good chance to even the series. I really like taking the Game 1 loser in a series I think will be very evenly matched. I also may hedge some of my futures out if the opportunity presents itself (i.e. Vegas makes it to the Cup, take the other team to win the series and profit either way).

These are the futures I have so far, which will be updated as the playoffs roll on, and will also be on the Sports Betting Picks page:

Excited for the NHL Playoffs! Going to be a roller coaster of emotions with upsets and lots of things you won’t expect, which is what makes it the best sport on earth. Let’s ride this wave!!

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (May 12)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 5/12

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 5/12. This will be the last regular season article as we shift gears towards the playoffs. There will be a Playoff Preview article coming out on Friday before the first series begins Saturday. The Model went 1-1 last night with craziness happening in that Caps/Bruins game. In the morning I took the over 5.5 because that seemed like good value. Then this news came out:

So I quickly went to hammer the Caps because the ML at the time was -130. I instantly hated the over and hedged it out with the under. The Caps ML climbed all the way up to -210 giving me over a 10% CLV. And then the game took place and there was absolutely nothing going on. The B’s scored first and the Caps tied it. Then with a second left the Caps finished the game off and barely won 2-1. Quite the roller coaster of emotions. On to today, I doubt anything can top that.

We have 5 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Oilers Money Line (-127) over the Canadiens
Senators Puck Line (+1.5, -175) over the Maple Leafs
Senators/Leafs Under 6.5 (-110)
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +170) and Money Line (-143) over the Blues
Golden Knights Money Line (-200) over the Sharks
Avalanche Money Line (-360) over the Kings
Kings Puck Line (+1.5, +123) over the Avalanche

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. And also keep an eye out for players resting and playoff implications for these games. The Avs need to win out to get the top seed and the Kings have literally nothing to play for. The Oilers and Canadiens both have their seeding locked in, but Edmonton getting more points can give them an advantageous matchup if they make it out of their division.

My Picks

Senators/Maple Leafs Under 6.5 (-110): These teams have actually hit their overs against each other a decent amount going 5-3. However both teams have good under trends throughout the season and in the last month. Both teams are under 40% over win percentage in the last month and under 41% for the whole season. It is Andersen’s first NHL start in a couple months which slightly scares me, but he also might play well given he needs to earn his playoff spot. At that 6.5 number I like the under here.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 18)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/18

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/18. The Model had an even night going 2-2. The over/unders treated us well with the Sens/Habs hitting the under 6 in a 4-0 Sens victory, and the Caps/Flyers lighting up the board and allowing the over 6.5 to hit in a 6-3 Caps win. The Blues let us down starting up 2-0 then losing 3-2, and the Devils game gave us a roller coaster of emotion going down 4-0, then coming back to make it 4-3, before ultimately losing 6-3. We move on to Sunday to finish the week strong.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Capitals Money Line (+130) over the Bruins
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +123) over the Devils
Penguins Money Line (-250) over the Sabres
Islanders Money Line (-135) over the Flyers

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. The Sabres are playing a goalie I have never even heard of, and that is saying something for the Sabres who’s normal tandem is Linus Ullmark and Dustin Tokarski. The Canucks also are finally back of a long layoff with COVID. Unfortunately for them their symptoms were quite terrible and they draw an instant tough matchup with Toronto today.

My Picks

Leafs -1.5 (-115): As mentioned this is the Canucks first game in about 3 weeks due to COVID. Their symptoms were so bad and players have admitted they still have not fully recovered. Their mind is on their health and family (as it should be), however that doesn’t mean we can’t bet against them. They are also missing 5 players still including their better goalie (Demko). The Leafs are the best team in the North Division and I expect them to dominate Vancouver tonight.

Penguins -1.5 (+100): Another -1.5 spread, how could this go wrong. The Penguins have played Buffalo 5 times this season and have covered the puck line in 4 of those games. The only time they didn’t was yesterday. However as mentioned above Buffalo is playing a goalie I have never even heard of before. That strategy worked against when I faded Swayman from Boston however he has turned out to be quite a good goalie. This guy playing for Buffalo couldn’t get starts over Tokarski and Johansson therefore I feel more comfortable this time around.

Bruins ML (-130): The Bruins seem to be turning the corner after a worse-than-expected start to the season. Their trade deadline additions of Reilly, Hall, and Lazar are already paying dividends. They have the rest advantage here and probably the goaltending advantage too. The Caps have been hard to evaluate this season because their underlying numbers don’t suggest they should be doing as well as they are. The Bruins are 3-1-2 against Washington this season, with their most recent battle an 8-1 loss last Sunday. Look for a Boston bounce back today.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 12)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/12

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/12. The Model had yet another undefeated night going 2-0. The Capitals absolutely trounced the Bruins 8-1 and then the Isles bailed us out in OT to win 3-2 and cash both of those money lines. It is Trade Deadline day and the deals are flowing! Hall, Foligno, Rittich, Riley, and more to come as the day progresses. Can have an impact on games tonight with players not available because of these trades. The Model will obviously take that into effect so no need to fear.

We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Maple Leafs Money Line (-141) over the Canadiens
Jets Money Line (-182) over the Senators
Hurricanes Money Line (-375) over the Red Wings
Red Wings/Hurricanes Under 5.5 (-113)
Blackhawks Puck Line (-1.5, +210) and Money Line (-122) over the Blue Jackets
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +180) and Money Line (-141) over the Blues
Golden Knights Money Line (-190) over the Kings
Sharks Money Line (-190) over the Ducks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Free Picks

Maple Leafs ML (-135): The Leafs are the class of the division. They are on a 6 game win streak and have gotten at least a point in 10 straight. Jack Campbell has yet to lose with Toronto. All of this points to Toronto possibly dropping a game tonight as they can’t keep winning right? However I am riding with the Leafs. This line shows Vegas slightly pricing the regression as The Model has the Leafs at -147. The Leafs hold a signficiant special teams edge and are +5.5u on the road with the Canadiens -4.8u at home. Let’s keep the streak buzzing and ride with the Leafs tonight.

Coyotes/Avalanche Over 5.5 (-120): Finally taking an over and not an under so we can root for some goals. These teams have been lighting the lamp against each other frequently hitting the over in their last 3 meetings and 4 of 7 this year. The Coyotes are playing Prosvetov in net and the Avs should have no problem getting a few by him tonight.

Premium Pick

Jets -1.5 (+135): The Jets have the highest puck line profit on the board tonight at +8.2u overall (+7u on the road). Out of 6 matchups this season the Jets have covered the puck line 3 times. The Sens are trading a couple important players during the deadline today which makes me like this even more. The Jets are also 6-6 (50% rate) hitting the puck line as a favorite this season which is tied for highest rate for teams over 10 games as a favorite. Hellebuyck is in net and we are riding the puck line tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 31)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 3/31

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 3/31. The Model had a rough one last night. 0-3. We were prime for a regression due to my unreal winning percentage as of late. We can’t overreact to 1 bad night. We take a step back and re-evaluate and move on to tonight.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Flyers Money Line (-200) and Puck Line (-1.5, +123) over the Sabres
Jets Puck Line (+1.5, -220) over the Maple Leafs
Golden Knights Money Line (-225) over the Kings
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +160) over the Sharks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. There are a couple leans tonight such as the Coyotes/Avs over 5.5. Colorado is 7-1 in their last 8 and Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5, but these teams also have gone multiple games in a row against each other on the under so take it with caution. The Kings +190 also has some value as The Model has their number around +173, but I also find it hard to bet against Vegas. However I am just taking 1 game tonight.

My Picks

Leafs ML (-140): Toronto is coming off an OT loss to Edmonton and Winnipeg is coming off a 5-1 win against Calgary. Both these teams have been inconsistent of late and are fighting for that top spot in the North. The Model has the Leafs as a -155 favorite so we get a decent edge on them here. In their season matchups this season the Leafs have 17.38 xG to the Jets 9.95, but the Jets have outscored the Leafs 13-11. I see a bounce back for the Leafs and like this price we can get them at.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

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