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Toronto Blue Jays

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 14)

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We are back! After a nice break thanks to the All-Star Game, we are blessed with a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. Teams are mostly rested and rotations are mostly reset. This should be a fun slate as we have a little bit of everything. We have good pitching, we have bad pitching, we have OK pitching.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kenta Maeda vs. Oakland Athletics

Kenta Maeda is my SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s very close. He has been, for the most part, lights out this season for the Twins. Over the last month, he’s dialed it up to a nearly 33% K rate and just a 1.59 ERA. His WHIP, an extremely important number, is under 1. That’s just phenomenal. He gets the pleasure of facing off against a terrible Oakland Athletics team.

Against righties this season, they’ve been bad. Like really bad. They have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .643. Both of those are just horrendous numbers. Can the Athletics surprise? Yeah, they’ve done it a few times this season. I just don’t see them doing it tonight vs. a very good pitcher in Maeda. Maeda, at just $7.7k on DK, is an absolute lock in all of my lineups tonight.

Tyler Glasnow vs. Kansas City Royals

His price has slowly started to creep up there and he’s above $10k on DK for the third straight outing. IF we’re being honest, I would have paid upwards of $11k for Glasnow tonight, he’s been that good. He’s coming off 2 outings against 2 very solid teams in Atlanta and Seattle in which he still scored over 20 DK points. He has a nearly 40% K rate over his last 26 innings of work and the last time he faced the Royals, he finished with 30 DK points.

Like the A’s, this is a bad Royals team. Outside of Bobby Whitt, there’s little to get excited for Royals fans. My most likely pairing of pitchers tonight will be Maeda and Glasnow. Combined, they’ll cost us just $18k. That will leave us right at $4k per bat, which is really good considering the upside we’re getting with our pitchers.

Charlie Morton vs. Chicago White Sox

If you want to get fancy tonight, Charlie Morton is also an option on the mound. The White Sox are huge disappointments this season and are 16 games under .500 heading into the unofficial second half of the baseball season. Morton for himself has been pretty good of late. Over his last 27 innings of work, Morton has an ERA of 2.28 and a K rate of nearly 29%.

He’s also a massive favorite in this one so getting the win bonus here is almost a certainty. Again, I’m more than likely sticking with Maeda/Glasnow as my starters, but if you were to substitute Morton for one of them you won’t be that far off from the best pairing of pitchers tonight. He should, in theory, be able to dominate this bad White Sox team.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Alec Marsh

When in doubt, stack the Rays. Just kidding, the Rays are always in play, even though they kind of sputtered into the All-Star Break. The Rays get a great matchup tonight vs. Alec Marsh. Marsh has now made 2 starts in the big leagues. His first went very poorly against the Dodgers and his second was just about average against an average Twins lineup. Combined, he’s allowed 3 homers in 9 innings of work and he’s also allowed a WHIP of 1.78.

A WHIP that high is very bad and it means he puts on nearly 2 runners per inning. Against a really good Rays lineup, that’s not going to cut it and if he does it again, the Rays are going to put up a mammoth number. I’m not going to be concerned with splits tonight. Marsh has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate.

At this point, when it comes to the Rays you know the drill. We’ll want to prioritize getting guys like Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Luke Raley, and Isaac Paredes. Wander Franco is the premier name in this lineup, but I’ll be honest he’s been average this season in most offensive categories and I’m having a hard time justifying paying $5.7k for him tonight.

So I’ll stick with Aroz, Lowe, Raley, and Paredes as my core. Each of these 4 has home run potential tonight against Marsh. Other bats to consider here will be Jose Siri and Brandon Lowe. This is a great spot for the Rays tonight. Vegas currently has them close to 6. We’ll just need to keep an eye on the weather as it’s supposed to storm in KC.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ryne Nelson

So far this season what we’ve learned about Ryne Nelson is that when he’s off, he’s really off. He’s coming off an outing that saw him give up 7 ER to the New York Mets. A couple of weeks before that, he gave up 5 to the Phillies. Over his last 32 innings of work, some of the numbers he has are baffling. 15 barrels, 5 homers, a 50% flyball rate, and just a 54% swing rate.

He’s not fooling hitters and they are swinging at balls they can hit. We’ll attack him tonight with a lineup for the Blue Jays that have been excellent vs. righties this season. They have a .751 OPS and a .166 ISO vs. them. Pretty solid numbers if you ask me.

Up and down this lineup we have some solid hitters. The first 2 bats I’m looking to lock in tonight here are going to be Home Run Derby Champion, Vladimir Guerrero. Over the last 30 days, he has a .213 ISO vs. righties and he’s facing off against a very beatable righty tonight.

After that, I’ll look to grab George Springer and Matt Chapman. Both guys have been really solid vs. righties this season and have actually turned it up a notch over the past 30 days. Springer has a .377 wOBA vs. them over the last 30 days and Chapman has a .346. Both guys should smash tonight! I also like Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho.

As is always the case, the Braves are in play vs. Michael Kopech. His ERA is low over the last month, but his numbers indicate he should be getting smashed. He’ll get smashed tonight vs. the Braves. I like Acuna, Murphy, and Albies the most here.

MLB DFS Summary

Welcome back y’all. We have a full Friday slate. We’ll want to keep an eye on the weather as there are a handful of games that have thunderstorm potential.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 1)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After a long few days of having to worry about weather and delays/ppd’s, the weather is beautiful for our 6-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate is a tough one. There are no true aces and few pitchers that are actually in good spots.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Drew Smyly vs. Washington Nationals

This is how bad pitching is today as I’m recommending Drew Smyly first. Smyly has pitched pretty respectably this year as he’s sporting an ERA of 3.21 and really hasn’t had a single start since his first start where he’s been blown up. The biggest concern here will be strikeouts. The Nationals don’t really strike out much vs. lefties. The projected lineup today has just a 17% k rate vs. lefties.

Smyly for his part isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He has just a 25% k rate on the year. I do think though that he pitches well enough to get into the teens tonight in terms of DK points and with how bad pitching is, that may be enough to get into the money.

Blake Snell vs. Cincinnati Reds

This is another tough one. Snell has all the talent in the world. He has shown to be dominant at times. There’s one thing though that he’s struggled with his entire career and that’s his control. He has a whopping 8.2 BB/9 this year. Until he can get that under control, it will be tough to consider him a top-tier pitching in the league.

That said, he gets a solid matchup today vs. the Reds. As a whole, the Reds have very pedestrian numbers vs. lefties this season, including a nearly 25% k rate. If Snell can cut down on his walks today, he has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Other pitchers I may have interest in are going to be Cal Quantrill vs. the Yankees if Judge is out again and Jose Berrios vs. Boston. Just know Berrios is never trustworthy.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber

The Toronto Blue Jays offense exploded for 10 runs yesterday after getting nearly no-hit by a spot starter making his major league debut. They have been one of the most inconsistent offenses all year and because of that, their ownership has been somewhat suppressed this season. This is a great spot for their offense to continue with the moment they built yesterday.

Corey Kluber is no longer an ace but a back-end-of-the-rotation guy at best. He matches up extremely poorly with the Blue Jays. He’s a flyball pitcher facing a team that has a bunch of guys that have flyball rates over 40%. A home run derby is not out of the question tonight.

I’m starting out my Blue Jays stack with Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, and George Springer. Matt Chapman has been a beast this season. His average is up to .380 on the season and has already driven up 21 RBI. He also has a wOBA of .486. He’s been locked in all season and has shown.

After Chapman, I’ll lock in Bo Bichette. Bichette had a pair of homers this week and combined for 11 runs + rbi. Other bats I’ll look to here will be Vlad Guerrero, Danny Jensen, and Cavan Biggio,

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver

A case could be made to start Luke Weaver tonight. He’s one of the few pitchers tonight that has any strikeout upside. That said, he’s also giving up a boatload of runs. Through 11 innings of work, his ERA is up to 7.71. He’s given up 10 ER so far this season and 5 homers. He’ll have his hands full tonight as he gets to take on a fully healthy Padres lineup. I don’t care much about splits here. Both sides have been crushing him this season.

I’m going to build around Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado tonight. Both guys have really been coming around. Tatis is only about a week into the season after finishing up his suspension for PEDs. Over his last 23 AB, Tatis has 8 hits and has an OPS pushing 1.000. As he gets his timing back, he’s only going to get better. He’s expensive, but he’s in line for a solid night.

Machado has also been playing, but who wouldn’t after playing in Mexico for a couple of games? That park makes Coors look huge. He’s seeing the ball right now so we’ll want him in our lineups. Other guys I like here are Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Trent Grishman, and anyone else that cracks the lineup.

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling

I’ve never been a huge fan of Ross Stripling. He’s someone that gives up a lot of hard contact and a decent amount of flyballs. Often, those flyballs tend to go over the fence. I’ll be chasing that tonight. Through 15 innings of work this season, he’s already given up 6 homers. That’s not something that’s unfamiliar to him. They were down for him last season, but in the 2 years prior to that he gave up more than 2 HR/9.

When I play the Astros, I make it a point to play Yordan Alvarez. He’s a top 5 bat in the league IMO. Alvarez has quietly had a solid start to the year. While he only has 6 homers, he’s up to 27 RBI. With Altuve out, this lineup is built around him.

I’m also going to add in Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena. Pena is probably their hottest hitter right now. Over his last 24 AB, Pena has 8 hits and 3 homers. He’s hot at the plate and a priority for me. I’ll round out this stack with guys like Mauricio Dubon and Kyle Tucker.

MLB DFS Summary

This is a tough slate, there’s not sugar coating it. I plan on playing light tonight because there are field mines everywhere just waiting to explode.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 24)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday and we have a very manageable 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We are now close to a month into the 2023 season and some things have become abundantly clear. The A’s are bad, very very bad. The Tigers are bad, very very bad. These are 2 teams we’ll often want to pick on with pitching and stacking. Tonight will be no different.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Strider vs. Miami Marlins

From a pure strikeout standpoint, there isn’t a single pitcher on tonight’s slate that has the upside that Spencer Strider has. Through 22 innings of work this season, Strider is already up to 36 K’s. That equates to a massive 14.73 k/9. The next closest person pitching tonight is Lance Lynn at 11.81. Add in the fact that he’s facing the Marlins and we have a pitcher that has immense upside tonight.

He’s the clear SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s even close. He’ll be a lock in my lineups tonight. I’d only recommend fading if you are MME. Let’s not overthink this one.

Jordan Montgomery vs. San Francisco Giants

Lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season. They are at least for now. We saw Joey Lucchesi, the same pitcher that hadn’t pitched in close to 2 years, absolutely mow this team down the other night. The projected lineup tonight for the Giants has a 27% k rate vs. lefties and a sub .300 wOBA. They’ll get the luxury of facing off against Jordan Montgomery tonight.

While Montgomery is never a safe pick, he has shown at times to have some upside. He struck out 9 Brewers a couple of weeks ago. I tend to only use him when the matchup is solid and tonight’s matchup is solid. You’ll need a bottle of Tums, but he should do well tonight.

Colin Rea vs. Detroit Tigers

We just saw a questionable Baltimore Orioles pitching staff take full advantage of a bad Tigers lineup. Colin Rea will be making only his third start of the season but oh what a spot this is for him. He too is far from safe, but we’re limited with pitching options today as many of the teams are on the back ends of their rotation.

We’ve seen some mixed results from Rea this season. He dominated the Padres in his initial start but came right back down to earth against a very good Mariners lineup. With the Tigers being so bad, I’m willing to roll the dice here on Rea.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk

Until they prove otherwise, I will be stacking against the A’s on most nights. They currently have a -103 run different on April 24. The next closest team is the Colorado Rockies at -54. They are giving up runs in the teens on multiple occasions each week. Just this week alone they gave up 18 to the Rangers and 12 to the Cubs. The week before they gave up 17 to the Mets and 12 to the Orioles. On any given night, there is blow-up potential and with Ken Waldichuk on the hill tonight, it’s there again.

Has he pitched better of late? The box score says yes. I’m not buying it though. I’m going to stack against him with a team that has a .359 wOBA vs. lefties this season and a .813 OPS. The Angels can get to lefties and they’ll face a beatable one tonight.

My priority in this lineup are 2 lefty crushers. One guy goes by the name of Mike Trout and the other is Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe has been a beast against lefties so far this season. He’s up to a .333 ISO and a .566 wOBA. There’s an excellent chance that he takes Waldichuk deep tonight. There’s not much I need to say about Trout. He’s an excellent play every night, and tonight is exaggerated with a bad pitcher on the mound.

Shohei Ohtani is also very much in play in this L/L matchup. On the year, he has a .379 wOBA vs. lefties and can excel here. Other bats I really like on the Angels are anyone that it’s in the lineup. They are all in play.

Minnesota Twins vs. Jhony Brito

One of the things I like to look at when picking stacks is how many barrels a pitcher has given up. Barrels are a good indicator that a pitcher either makes mistakes and leaves the ball over the plate or the hitters just get a good look at what he’s throwing. Brito has given up 7 barrels already this season in just 15 innings of work. That’s an extremely high number of barrels in not a lot of innings of work.

With Brito, we want to focus on righties. He’s as extreme of a reverse splits pitcher as there is. Righties have a .445 wOBA vs. him this season vs. a .189 for righties. The ISO is also significantly higher for righties.

Knowing this, the first 2 batters I want to look at are going to be Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. There are few players in the game that have the type of upside that Buxton brings to the table. His only problem has been the ability to stay healthy. So far this season he’s been able to stay on the field and has hit safely in 4 straight games. With a beatable righty on the hill, he should be able to make it 5 straight with a full stat line.

Correa should also excel here. Brito is a sinker ball pitcher. Over the last few years, Correa has a .415 wOBA vs. righty sinkers. Other bats to look at here will be Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Michael Taylor.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lance Lynn

I’m not opposed to attacking Lance Lynn tonight. So far this year we haven’t really seen the Lynn we’ve grown accustomed to over the last several seasons. All of his metrics are at or nearly at career-worst marks. Has the big fella hit the wall at age 35 season? It’s quite possible.

While the strikeouts are still there, the BB/9 and HR/9 are insanely high compared to his career numbers. He’s coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER to the Phillies. We’ll attack him until he gets things right if that happens at all.

The bats I want to prioritize here will be Vlad Guerrero and Matt Chapman. While Chapman has cooled a little bit after his torrid start, he still has 3 barrels over the last week which has resulted in 2 homers. He’s done well vs. righties this year with a .426 wOBA. Vlad Jr. has also done well vs. righties this season with a .254 ISO and a .394 wOBA. Other bats I’ll look to here will be George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho.

MLB DFS Summary

I’m going to prioritize getting Mike Trout into my lineups tonight. I normally shy away from prioritizing a super expensive player, but he has so much upside tonight in this matchup vs. an awful team.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 10/03

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a full 15 game final slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play. Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward.

When Manfred designed up having a second Wild Card spot what is occurring in the American League is probably what he had in mind. There is a logjam in the AL for both Wild Cards. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners are all battling for the 2 spots and are within a game of each other. If the Red Sox and Yankees both lose today and the Blue Jays and Mariners both win they are in. The Red Sox and Yankees are tied and cling to a 1 game lead over both the Mariners and Blue Jays. They win and they are in.

If we head out west today, the Giants and Dodgers are still battling for the NL West crown. We have the two teams with the most wins in the league. The winner of the NL West gets a few days off while the loser has to take on the red hot Cardinals in the Wild Card game. They will both be bringing it full force today.

This is shaping up to be the best final Sunday of baseball we’ve had in years.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Logan Webb ($8.7k) vs. San Francisco Giants – After a horrendous start vs. the Padres, Webb returned to form against the Dbacks with a 5 inning 6K effort. I’m not as worried with the going back to the well again against the Padres because it wasn’t really the Padres that did him in last time out. His command was off and never looked comfortable.

The Giants need to Webb to shine today to get them the W. The Padres over the last week have been very underwhelming. They have a 24% K rate and have hit for very limited power. I’m locking in Webb today and not looking back.

Dylan Cease ($9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I don’t expect Cease to throw more than 90 pitches today so we probably only get him for 5 to 6 innings. In his last outing vs. the Indians he went 5 innings and struck out 9 before leaving with an injury. No pitcher today has the K upside as Cease, even if he has an abbreviated outing.

At only $9k I’m ok stomaching a shorter than normal outing. Cease’s main strike out pitch is his slider and if it’s on today, he’s going to have a solid game. Up and down the Tigers lineup they have whiff rates exceeding 30%. Look for Cease to have a solid game today and end up as one of the highest scoring pitchers. The only thing that may stop him today is the weather. So keep an eye on the forecast.

Reiver Sanmartin ($7.1k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Sanmartin looked pretty decent in his first outing this year. He was able to strike out 5 Pirates through 5.2 innings. While the Pirates have been a pretty low strike out team this year, they’ve been striking out more of late. Over the last week they’ve been striking out nearly 25% of the time.

Sanmartin is getting the same match up against the Pirates but he should still be able to breeze through them again. He mostly throws a slider to lefties and should face 5 of them today. Those guys all have whiff rates over 35% against sliders. I really like his chances of ending the season on a strong note.

Outside of Webb, the pitchers that are in the playoff scenario spots all look like they have poor match ups. Sale is facing a young stingy team in the Nationals that are all out to make a name for themselves. There’s no better spot for them to do it in than this. Ryu is not in good form and I can see the Orioles exploding on him. Buehler is facing a Brewers team that will throw out a bunch of lefties. That’s his weakness. Tyler Anderson of the Mariners is very inconsistent and I have no faith in him.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bruce Zimmermann – Blue Jays lose today and they are out. If we look at Zimmermann’s outing vs. the Red Sox this week we’ll see a pitcher that gave up 2 hits in 4 innings of work while only allowing 1 runner to score. Box scores don’t tell the whole story. He also gave up a 58% fly ball rate, an 88% contact rate, and didn’t give up any soft contact. He’s going to get hit today and he’s going to hit very hard.

We have 3 guys in the middle of the lineup today that are just crushing lefties right now. Bichette ($3.9k), Guerrero ($4k), and Hernandez ($3.4k) all have ISO’s against lefties over .364 since early September. We’re not talking about a small sample size. While we normally talk about picking our pitchers first, I’m building the rest of my lineup today around them.

The other guy I’ll look to add in here is Santiago Espinal ($2.1k). He’s cheap and will help us stomach paying the salaries of the Blue Jays core. He’s also red hot over the last week with a .955 OPS and 8 hard hits in just 20 at bats.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jameson Taillon – On the final day of the season, this is my ode to Brian. I fully expect the Rays to play their regulars today. If they don’t, their regulars will have had 4 days off between games and that’s just asking for too much rust heading into the playoffs. I also expect them to try their hardest to get he Yankees to have to play even more baseball.

Taillon is a good pitcher, but if he has a weakness it’s lefties. They have a 54% fly ball rate vs. his him this year and a near .200 ISO. His walk rate also jumps from just 4% to righties to 12% against lefties. The Rays are normally pretty under owned, but I think we see that get to a whole new level today.

After a 3 homer day yesterday Lowe ($3.6k) sits just one away from 40. He gets it with a lead off homer today. I’ll also want Meadows ($3.1k) and Choi ($2.4k) here. They have ISO’s at .200 or better vs. righties over the last month. The Rays were a big staple of the WDS family this year and there’s no reason to change it on the final day of the year.

Seattle Mariners vs. Reid Detmers – Mariners get one of the best match ups of the teams playing for their playoff lives. Detmers hasn’t pitched much this year in the majors due to not being good and also sitting out a month with Covid. On the year he has a 6.48 xFIP and has given up a 46% fly ball rate. He’s been pretty bad against both sides of the plate so I’m going to go with Mariners that hit lefties the best.

Hello Mr. Haniger ($3.9k) and your .301 ISO against lefties over the last month. I also really like Torrens ($2.3k) here who sports a .242 ISO over the last 30 days vs. lefties. I wouldnt’s shy away from lefties like Kelenic ($3.2k) and Seager ($3.2k). Detmers shouldn’t last long in this game and righties from the bullpen will eventually pitch. Look for the Mariners to squeak into an extra playoff game tomorrow.

If you want to play some Orioles today, I wouldn’t blame you. Ryu is attackable and hasn’t been in the best form in his last couple of outings. The Orioles have also had some success vs. him this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

What a final day of the season we have in store today. While the contests are smaller, it should be a fun day. We have 6 games today that involve teams with playoff implications. That’s nearly half the games today. Sit back, play some DFS, and enjoy the last day of the regular season.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 09/26

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a smaller than normal 8 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.4k) vs. New York Mets – The New York Mets are playing listless baseball right now. After being in first place the majority of the year, they’ve essentially mailed it in. Losers of 9 out of their last 10 they get a tough matchup in Peralta today. Peralta over the last month is in peak form as the Brewers get ready for the playoffs.

His K rate is approaching 35% and his hard hit rate is below 24%. While there’s concern with his pitch count limitations, he did reach 90 pitches in his last start. He very well could get to 40 FD points by the sixth inning today. Look for Peralta to have a solid day.

Shane Baz ($6.9k) vs. Miami Marlins – The Chris Archer trade continues to look awful for the Pirates. Meadows – Stud. Glasnow – Stud. Baz – Stud. Archer – back with the Rays. If you watched Baz in his last outing you noticed how easily the ball leaves his hand. He throws as effortless as I’ve ever seen a pitcher.

He was able to strike out 5 Blue Jays in just 5 innings. During that game he also had a 21% swinging strike rate. Today he gets to take on a much less imposing lineup in the Miami Marlins. The Marlins lineup hasn’t been awful of late. They’ve actually been decent. That said, if Baz can quiet down a Blue Jays lineup filled with All Stars, he can silence a Marlins lineup filled with youngsters.

John Means ($8.9k) vs. Texas Rangers – Means is starting to pitch better and with him getting to face a porous Rangers lineup I’m looking for him to continue his momentum going into the offseason. In his last outing he was able to quiet a solid a Phillies lineup, going 6 innings and striking out 6. While his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days, there’s upside with Means today.

The projected Rangers lineup has a 25% K rate over the last month vs. lefties. We saw a high K arm in Means earlier in the year. I think he comes back out to play against a Rangers lineup that has been quieted by the likes of Lowther and Wells. Means is a far superior talent to both those arms. The Rangers, just like the Mets, have mailed it in and are just playing out the string. I can see Means ending the day as the highest scoring pitcher.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Griffin Jax – We have a list. It’s a list of pitchers that when they take the mound we stack against them. Jax is on the list and to be honest, he’s getting closer to the top of the list with each outing. He now has 7 consecutive starts with an xFIP of at least 5. He’s started 16 games this season and has only 2 starts where his xFIP was under 5.

He gives up a ton of contact and that’s what we want to see when attacking pitchers. Over the last 30 days Jax’s fly ball rate is 52% and his hard hit rate is almost 46%. That’s just not going to cut it at the major league level. The Blue Jays are on the outside looking in right now for the Wild Card. They sit 2 games behind the Red Sox and Yankees with just 7 to play. They are going to continue to put their best foot forward and those are the types of teams you want to pick this late in the season.

The guy I’m building around today is Teoscar Hernandez ($4.2k). He is seeing the ball as well as anyone in the game right now. Semien ($4.1k) is another guys smashing the ball right now. He has a 1.141 OPS over the last past week. These 2 are my core but all Blue Jays are in play today. Especially Corey Dickerson ($2.3k) if he makes the lineup. He’s hitting the ball well and gives us a ton of flexibility with his salary.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Max Kranick – Phillies are another team battling for the playoffs right now. They sit just 1.5 games behind the Braves for the NL East. You know they aren’t going to be just playing out the string. Expect their A lineup today vs. a pitcher in Kranick that hasn’t been good in his limited time in the Bigs. On the year he has a 6.53 xFIP and has given up a 44% fly ball rate.

Because he’s a splits neutral pitcher, I’m going to lean on the Phillies that are the hottest right now. It starts at the top with the near min priced Vierling ($2.1k). Over the last week he has a 1.108 OPS and a .461 wOBA. He’s going to set the trend for the Phillies today. Other guys I like here are MPV candidate Harper ($4.5k) and JT Realmuto ($3.6k). Both guys are rolling and if the Phillies want to continue their push they’ll need them to produce.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jesus Luzardo – The Rays have already clinched the AL East so we’ll want to keep an eye on what lineup they put out. That said, they get a great match up vs. a pitcher in Luzardo who has struggled with the Marlins. Over the last month his xFIP is at 5.68. Luzardo has very clear splits. We want to prioritize righties here. They have a .280 ISO against Luzardo over the last month.

The guys that come to mind are Diaz ($3.2k) and Zunino ($3k). Both guys have been crushing lefties this year and especially over the last month. Both guys have ISO’s over .400 against them over the last month. Luplow ($2.3k) and Margot ($2.2k) will also make nice compliments here. Rays are cheap today.

They’ll help us grab the expensive bats from the Phillies or Blue Jays. Normally there’s a pinch hit threat with the Rays but with little to play for right now, we can probably expect some of these guys to stay in there while the veterans get a breather.

Cardinals are also in a great spot but at some point their magic will run out and I expect that to happen today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

While the contests are smaller today, this is shaping up to be a fun slate. Pitching today seems pretty clear in my eyes. I really love this kid in Baz and will be sure to use him today. He gives us a ton of salary relief too.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 09/23

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on each slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces (Early)

Max Scherzer ($11.3k) vs. Colorado Rockies – It’s a steep price to pay for a pitcher throwing in Coors but with a pitcher like Scherzer I’m not as concerned with “Coors effect” as I am others. When you have a near 20% swinging strike rate you’re just not putting as many balls in play as your peers.

Scherzer is in as good a form as we’ve seen him. Over the last month his K rate is hovering around the 38% mark. We chase K’s in DFS and with Scherzer on the hill, we chase. My hope is that with him being in Coors his ownership will be lower than normal. He’s the top pitcher on the slate and it’s not really close.

Logan Webb ($9.8k) vs. San Diego Padres – If you’ve made the decision to fade Scherzer the next best option would be Logan Webb. Webb is quietly putting together a solid season. Over the last month his xFIP is just 2.58, the lowest of any pitcher on the slate. While he doesn’t have the K upside of Scherzer, he’s still striking out around 27% of the batters over the last month.

Where he excels though is keeping the ball on the ground and inducing soft contact. More than 21% of the contact he’s been giving up is soft and his GB rate is approaching 60%. 10 of his last 11 starts have been quality starts so the QS bonus is almost a given. I really like his chances of making it 11 out of 12 today. If you want the $1,500 savings over Scherzer you could do a whole lot worse than Webb.

Adam Wainwright ($9.5k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – I’m going to stick with the top 2 pitchers, but if you want to go a different route Wainwright comes into the conversation. He lacks the K upside of the first two as his K rate is just 15% over the last month. What he provides us with is length which normally equates to another strike out or 2.

Similar to Webb, he also provides us a decent floor. In 9 of his last 10 starts he’s finished with a QS. That 4 point bonus is always key on FD as it’s essentially 1 more K. Brewers are striking out almost 25% of the time vs. righties over the last month and that’s good for Wainwright. He faced the Brewers a couple of weeks ago and had a 4K game with a Win and QS. Good for 38 points. He’s not my first choice today but he’s a solid choice if you go that route.

MLB DFS: The Bats (Early)

Atlanta Braves vs. Madison Bumgarner – I suspect the Braves will be popular to chalky today. They get a great match up vs. a pitcher that is a shell of what they used to be. Over the last month MadBum is pitching to a 6.17 xFIP. He’s giving up hard hits almost 46% of the time. He’s just not good anymore. We want to attack him with righties as his splits are pretty clear.

Righties have a .282 ISO vs. him and a .379 wOBA. Lefties have a .182 ISO and .250 wOBA. That’s a 100 point difference in the ISO category and we want power in DFS. With the Braves clinging to a 3 game lead over the Phillies we can expect them to put their best foot forward today.

My core with the Braves will be Soler ($3.2k), Riley ($3.5k), and Swanson ($2.8k). All three have historically hit lefties extremely well. Over the last 30 days they all have wOBA’s in the mid .300’s or greater vs. lefties. They should be able to get MadBum and then get to take on the Diamondbacks porous bullpen.

Oakland Athletics vs. Yusei Kikuchi – I used the A’s against Gonzales the other day and I’ll be honest, they were a disappointment. I’m going right back to the well with them today against another lefty. Kikuch is very attackable. I’ll add here though that if you go with the A’s today, you need to go all in. He doesn’t give up many homers so he’s not someone to use a one off hitter and hope that they homer. Kikuchi is more someone that gives up a ton of contact, and a ton of hard contact.

Of all the pitchers on the day slate no one is giving up more hard contact that Kikuchi. His hard hit rate over the last 30 days is sitting at 41%. While the match up is great here, the real reason I’m going here is that the A’s provide us value. The back of the A’s lineup is very cheap today. We have guys like Gomes ($2.8k), Pinder ($2.2k), and Davis ($2.1k) who all get the platoon advantage today and are all under $3k. With having an expensive pitcher in Scherzer we’ll need value. The A’s provide us that today.

San Francisco Giants vs. Yu Darvish – Darvish has had a very up and down year. He’s been brilliant at times and then absolutely awful at times. The match up today is screaming an awful outing for him. Over the last 30 days he has an extremely glaring weakness and that’s lefties. They have a .476 ISO and .521 wOBA against him. His K rate plummets from 39.7% against righties to just 6% against lefties.

The Giants have a lineup filled with lefties. I’m focused on the lefties here and I think we can chase homers with them too. It starts with Belt ($3.8k) who has a .485 ISO against righties over the last month. I think he takes Darvish deep today!

Other guys I like here are Crawford ($3.3k) and Wade ($2.9k). Both guys have ISO’s over .200 vs righties over the last month and have power upside. Giants are clinging to a 2 game lead over the Dodgers so you can be sure they are still playing their hardest. I think we can get some of these Giants at much lower ownership than they should be today.

MLB DFS: Main Slate

There are really only two arms I trust on the main slate tonight. Aaron Nola ($9.1k) and Lance McCullers ($10.2k). My lean right now would be to go with McCullers. The Angels have been striking out a ton of late and have a 28% K rate vs. righties over the last month. McCullers will more than likely face a lineup that has 5 lefties in it. Over the last month he’s striking out lefties at a 29% clip. This is a solid match up for McCullers.

My lean to McCullers over Nola is due to the Pirates being a low strike out team. Over the last 30 days they have just a 23% K rate vs. righties. While Nola does tend to strike out lefties at a higher rate this match up just doesn’t look like a good one for him. I can see Nola closer to his floor than ceiling tonight.

With bats we have some options. My lean right now is to favor the Texas Rangers vs. Zac Lowther. Lowther has been getting rocked over the last 30 days. His xFIP is in the mid 5’s and his hard hit rate is 68%. Just not what you want to see out of your starter. He has pretty clear splits.

Righties have a .306 ISO against him. The righties I’d pick here are Garcia ($3.4k), Ibanez ($2.8k), and Kiner-Falefa ($3k). Ibanez and Kiner are the hottest hitters on the Rangers right now. While Garcia has been struggling, he has a 45% fly ball rate over the last week and a modest 36% hard hit rate. If anyone can homer in this lineup, it’s him.

My core of bats will the Blue Jays. They’re going to be popular but it may be chalk we need to eat on a short slate. Blue Jays bats are hot right now. Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k) and Gurriel ($3.4k) are the hottest of the bunch. They both have OPS’s greater than 1.000. Gurriel is absolutely smashing the ball right now with 4 barrels over the last week.

Pineda is a guy that can be had and with the Blue Jays on the cusp of the final Wild Card sport you can be rest assured that they are going to continue to play as hard as anyone in the league. Blue Jays put up a big number today.

My final stack will be on the other side of the game with the Minnesota Twins vs. Steven Matz. Matz biggest weakness is righties. Over the last 30 days they have a 45% fly ball rate and 37% hard hit rate vs. him. The Twins have 3 guys at the top of the lineup that are crushing lefties over the last month.

Buxton ($3.8k), Polanco ($3.8k), and Donaldson ($3.3k) are my lean here. Polanco and Donaldson have ISO’s at or approaching .500 vs. lefties over the last month. Matz will not be able to cool them down. Garver ($2.5k) is also a nice cheap addition to this stack. On the year he has a .272 ISO against lefties and should be in the lineup.

Summary

We get two decent slates on the day. I do like the day slate much batter and with weather risk in the night slate a case could be made to just skip it and enjoy TNF.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 09/05

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – What a year that Robbie Ray has had! He made some pitch selection changes coming into the year and they have really paid off in a Cy Young level season. Over the last month Ray has been dominant. He has a 37.5% K rate which is way above the field.

Ray has also been really doing a great job of limiting the hard contact with just a 25.7% hard hit rate over the last 30 days. Ray sets up extremely well w/ the A’s. His main strike out pitch is his slider and it’s a pitch that the A’s can struggle with as they have a handful of batters that have whiff rates over 30%.

If he can neutralize Marte today he should have one of his 50 FD point outings. He’s my SP1.

Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Kansas City Royals – Cease put together a solid August. He had a 3.94 xFIP and an elite 33% K rate, trailing only Ray of all the starters going today. The match up vs. the Royals isn’t the greatest as they tend to be stingy, but if I’m going to attack the Royals it will almost always be with a righty.

Cease matches up pretty well w/ the Royals as his main pitch to strike batters out his slider. He has a 40% K rate with it this year and uses it about 30% of the time. Outside of Perez (my vote is to just intentionally walk him all day) the Royals lineup really struggles with sliders.

You have guys like Dozier and O’hearn who have whiff rates near 50%. If Cease’s slider is on today, sky’s the limit.

Luis Castillo ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Of all aces going today, Castillo probably gets the softest of the match ups. Tigers over the last 30 days have a 24% K rate vs. righties.

While Mahle didn’t have the greatest game against them last night he did strike out 8 Tigers. I see no reason why Castillo can’t match that strike out number and I have more confidence in him limited the damage done.

Over the past 30 days he’s been keeping batters in check w/ just a 26% hard hit rate and just 4 barrels in nearly 30 innings of work. Castillo has just 1 start under 30 FD points in the last 3 months. Look for him to continue that trend w/ a floor of 30 points today.

I love Burnes as a pitcher and he should do well today. He’s just overpriced in my opinion as he’s almost $2k more on FD than he is on DK.

Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this year and has only eclipsed 40 FD points once and that was back in April when he was striking out batters more consistently. I’m not saying don’t play him, I just think he’s closer to his floor today than he is his ceiling.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Griffin Jax – I’m going to channel my inner Brian and use the Rays as my top stack tonight. They get a match up in a pitcher that has been struggling to limit hard contact.

Over the past 30 days Jax has a near 48% hard hit rate with a 46% fly ball rate. Add those 2 numbers together and you have a pitcher in Jax that has given up 8 homers and 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.

Jax has been pretty awful to both sides of the plate as righties have a .317 ISO against him and lefties a .400 over the past month. If we look at this Rays lineup they just dominate righties.

Lowe ($3.4k) and Kiermaier ($2.2k) are my favorites here. Lowe has a .338 ISO against righties over the past month and Kiermaier has .279. Both guys are my core.

The other guys I’ll look to sprinkle in from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($3.4k) and Wander Franco ($4.2k). The Rays are hot again w/ the bats and a pitcher like Jax stands no chance at slowing them down.

New York Mets vs. Josiah Gray – Don’t look now but the Mets’ bats have finally woken up after sleeping through most of August. Look, Gray has a ton of talent. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game as he was part of the Turner/Scherzer deal.

That said, he’s still someone that is attackable with how he has been pitching of late. Over his last 27 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. When you give up a 55% fly ball rate you’re bound to see some balls leave the park.

The first bat I’m going to build my core around will be Jonathan Villar ($2.8k) as he’s been red hot over the last week. He has a 1.359 OPS and .565 wOBA. The next guy is Michael Conforto ($2.7k).

Conforto is as streaky of a hitter as there is in the game. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and when he’s locked in, you play him. He has a 53% hard hit rate over the past week. Enjoy the ride while it lasts with him.

Another disappointing Met that is starting to see the ball well again is Francisco Lindor ($3.3k). Lindor has a 53% hard hit rate and 47% fly ball rate over the past week. With the Mets finally hitting like they were supposed to they should get to Gray early today and then get the Nats bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cole Irvin – Irvin has not been good over the past 30 days. Frankly, he’s been awful. Over the last month he has a 6.31 xFIP. He’s giving up more walks per 9 than he has strike outs.

With that in mind, the Blue Jays today are a team that you need to either go all in on, or fade today. He’s going to put a ton of batters on as he has a 1.71 WHIP since the beginning of August. With the Blue Jays I want to focus on the bats that have been the hottest.

Lourdes Gurriel ($3.3k), Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k), and Bo Bichette ($4k) all have an OPS over 1.100 over the past week. They are hot and if you play the Blue Jays today they should be in your lineup.

My hope is that Breyvic Valera ($2k) makes the lineup today. Over his last 3 games he’s been extremely productive and is essentially a free square if he plays. Montoyo, please play Valera!

While these 3 are may favorite stacks today, there’s a ton of offense to go around. The White Sox vs. Singer should put up a big number as he just puts so many batters on base. Also have to love the Yankees vs. Keegan Akin.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have some really solid pitchers on the mound today. I will more than likely lock in Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray and then load up on the value plays from the Mets. Rays are extremely affordable on FD today and in a smash spot. This Sunday Funday has a great slate of games and we should see a ton of offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 08/05

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a rather small 6 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

As is what we’ve become accustomed to, tonight’s slate is void of any ace. The good, this means we can essentially grab almost any bat bad we want. The bad, it means we’ll have to really dig in to find a pitcher that will provide us a safety net while also providing upside.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Touki Toussaint ($8.5k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Toussaint now has 3 starts under his belt for the year. Two very good ones, one very poor one. His poor start was his last outing and it was against a streaking Brewers team. When the Brewers are on, they are one of the toughest lineups to face so I’m going to cut Toussaint some slack.

Toussaint has historically been better against righties than lefties. Over the course of the last few years his K rate is significantly higher at 26.6% vs. just 21% against lefties. This year it’s over 30% to righties.

The lineup that he’s going to face tonight will be almost entirely righty with the exception of Carlson and Erdman. With pitching lacking tonight I want to go with the guys that have the most strikeout ability and Toussaint will bring us that. No pitcher is safe tonight and Toussaint is no exception.

Sonny Gray ($9.3k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Over the past 30 days Gray has seen a mixed bag of results. His last outing was superb, striking out 7 Mets and only giving up 1 run in 6 innings of work. The outing prior he gave up 8 runs in just 3 innings with only 3 strike outs against the Cards.

Gray has been a bit unlucky over the past month as his BABIP is close to .400. With tonight’s match up against the Pirates we should land somewhat closer to the Mets outing than the Cards. The Pirates lineup is nothing to be intimidated by, especially with Frazier shipped out of town. Look for Gray to continue the momentum from his last start.

Framber Valdez ($9.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – I will feel a lot more comfortable using Valdez if Donaldson sits again. It takes a righty out and gets another lefty in the lineup in Arraez. This would be a big win for Valdez as his K rate is almost 30% vs. lefties vs. just 21% for righties.

What I like the most about Valdez is that he provides us with somewhat of a floor. He hasn’t scored lower than 18 FD points all year, with only 2 outings under 20. With how volatile pitching has been this year, the floor is something we’ll need and want. While my early lean is to go with either Gray or Toussaint, the Twins lineup will dictate whether or not I play Valdez.

MLB DFS: The Bats

With brutal pitching comes a healthy amount of stacks. We have no shortage of viable stacks tonight.

Kansas City Royals vs. Dallas Keuchel – Over the past 30 days Keuchel has been a home run derby pitcher. He’s given up 8 in just 23 innings of work. That’s just an insane rate. A lot of is attributed to his bread and butter pitcher getting smoked this year.

Batters have a .559 slugging percentage and .414 wOBA against his sinker this year. The Royals have a handful of guys that have crushed sinkers this year. My core with the Royals will be built around Salvador Perez ($3.3k) who has a .466 slugging % and a 49% hard hit rate against sinkers this year with a whiff rate of less than 17%.

Other guys of interest here will be Whit Merrifield ($3.1k) and Michael Taylor ($2.2k) as they both have wOBA’s close .400 vs. the pitch.

Chicago White Sox vs. Daniel Lynch – In his first start after getting recalled from the minors we a saw a glimpse of why Lynch is a top pitching prospect for the Royals as he shut out the Tigers through 8. In his next outing we also saw a glimpse that he still needs some work to a reliable starter in the bigs.

He gets a very daunting task of facing one of the best teams vs. lefties in the White Sox. On the year they have .755 OPS and .328 wOBA. My main target here will be Jose Abreu ($3.4k) and his .303 ISO against lefties this year. The other 2 I’m looking at in this lineup that I’ll want to prioritize are Andrew Vaughn ($2.8k) and Cesar Hernandez ($3.1K).

Both guys have ISO’s approaching .300 against lefties on the year and line up fairly well with the Fastball, Slider, and Change up mix they’ll see tonight. White Sox were embarrassed by the Royals in front of the home fans last night. I expect them to return the favor with a big number tonight

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Triston McKenzie – McKenzie has gotten rocked in 2 of his last 3 outings. He gave up 5 ER and 2 homers vs. the Astros and 6 ER and 3 homers vs. White Sox. In between was a solid outing vs. the Rays.

The match up tonight is very similar to the match up that he had against the Astros and White Sox as both of those teams are heavy with right handed bats, just like the Blue Jays. McKenzie’s splits on the year show us he’s been way more susceptible to power from righties as his ISO is 80 points higher against them.

His hard hit rate jumps from 33% against lefties to a whopping 49% against righties. Vlad Guerrero ($4.6k) and George Springer ($4.2k) all have ISO’s greater than .360 on the year against righties. They will be chalky, but on a short slate like tonight we almost have to eat the inevitable chalk.

One way we can differentiate ourselves is by going with a 9,1,2 stack and use Kirk ($2.2k) who is near min priced tonight. After a little bit of a cold stretch with the bats, the Blue Jays are starting to heat up and I want to be along for the ride.

Another spot we can look at tonight to sprinkle in batters will be Cleveland vs. Stripling. Stripling is someone we can always rely on to give up at least one homer. The top of the Indians lineup with Rosario ($2.8K) and Zimmer ($2.2k) is very cheap and may help us afford the likes of Guerrero and Springer.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is going to give us heart burn tonight. I don’t think there’s anyway around it. There’s no clear cut ace and none of the pitchers really scream to us, “I’m safe”. Bats will be plenty as there will be a ton of desirable spots for offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 08/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Today we have another questionable pitching slate. I will say though we have an opportunity to take advantage of some pricing discrepancies between the two sites today. We have some pitchers priced up on one site, while others are priced up on the other. I plan on walking you through 3 of my top pitching plays and my top 3 pitchers to attack.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

We don’t have a single pitcher on FD priced over $10k today. The top 3 pitchers on FD are overpriced for my liking so I’m going to live in the mid-tier range today as they’ll provide us the most upside while also allowing us to build our lineups with very solid bats.

Jordan Montgomery ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – Gone from the Marlins lineup are some of the righty pop that we’d normally use against a lefty like Montgomery. Duvall was shipped to Atlanta and Marte was shipped out west to the A’s.

The projected lineup that Montgomery is scheduled to face today has a 28% K rate and just a .145 ISO against lefties this year. It’s a much weaker lineup than before the trade deadline and it’s one we’ll want to attack. Montgomery over the past 30 days has been pretty good himself which warrants even more consideration from us.

His xFIP is 3.92 and his K% is 26.5%. On a day where we don’t have may high K guys Montgomery is one that’s going to provide us some of the most upside on the slate.

Adbert Alzolay ($7.5k) vs. Washington Nationals – The Nationals, just like the Marlins, are going to be a watered down lineup from what we saw just a week ago. Gone are Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes. Outside of Juan Soto and Josh Bell this is going to be a very low power lineup that Alzolay will face today.

The projected lineup has a 24.5% K rate vs. righties and an extremely low ISO of .115. Alzolay isn’t someone that’s going to wow us with a double strike out game today, but he’s at a price point and against a lineup that can really bring us back some value.

He has at times shown some K upside with multiple games at 6 strikes outs or more. Today has the feeling of one of those days where he can dial it back and bring us at least 6 strike outs.

Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Kansas City Royals – One of the bigger trades of the deadline this year was Berrios heading up north to the Toronto Blue Jays. While the price is a littler higher than I’d like to pay for Berrios, he’s one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Of all the pitchers on today’s slate, no pitcher has a higher K rate over the past month than Berrios. His K rate over the last 30 days is just a shade under 30% and he’s really been able to limit the hard contact with just a 29% hard hit rate. The match up today is not easy as the Royals are a stingy team.

They are a low K team as the projected lineup today has just a 22% K rate vs. righties on the year. The subtraction of Soler from this lineup makes it a little less intimidating. I will most likely live with the top 2 pitchers in the article, but from a pure talent stand point Berrios is the guy that will provide the highest potential today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Foltynewicz – This is more a testament to the quality of the pitcher than the quality of the lineup. Although the Mariners have been playing some better ball of late. Folty is one of the worst pitchers in the game.

Over the past 30 days he’s brought it to a whole new level as his xFIP over his last 19 innings is 6.67. In his last 19 innings he’s give up 12, yes 12 homers. His fly ball rate over this period is nearly 70% and his hard hit rate is nearly 45%. He’s given up multiple homers in 4 consecutive games, with one of those games being against this same Mariners team.

My main building blocks here will be the lefties of Seattle as Folty’s fly ball rate jumps to 50% against them. Seager ($3.1k), Toro ($2.5k), and Kelenic ($2.1k) all stand a great chance of homering today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cal Quantrill – If we look at just box scores, Quantrill hasn’t pitched poorly over the past 30 days. However, if we dig in, the advanced metrics tell a very different story.

Both his SIERA and xFIP are more than 2 runs higher than his ERA. He’s giving up way more hard contact than soft contact and he’s not missing any bats with just a 14% K rate. One of the numbers that sticks out the most his LOB % at 88%.

He’s playing with fire and the White Sox are the team that lights him up. Quantrill throws his sinker more than any other pitch. Guys like Abreu ($3.4k), Moncada ($2.9k), and Sheets ($2.3k) all hit this pitch well and should be the building blocks to your stack.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brad Keller – Keller hasn’t pitched poorly recently, but he’s someone that we can attack because if we look at his season as a whole he’s been someone that has had some pretty rough outings.

I tend to use the Blue Jays more vs. righties than I do lefties. Blue Jays will most likely throw out 7 or 8 right handed hitters today so the pitch mix will be a bunch of sinkers and sliders from Keller. If we take a look at how the Blue Jays have handled this pitch mix from righties, this has the makings of a tough day for Keller.

It all starts at the top as Springer ($4.2k) has an ISO greater than .200 and wOBA over .380 to both pitches. Semien ($3.7K) and Bichette ($4.1k) also both profile extremely well. With how cheap the Mariners are today (and even the White Sox) we should have no issue fitting in the high priced Blue Jays today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather today as there are a few spots that have some potentially for showers and thunder showers. Pitching is going to be tough today as we have more cons than pros to almost all of them. There will be plenty of offense to go around and we have plenty of salary to fit the bats we want.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. A 4 game noon slate and a 5 game main slate.

For the first time in a while Fanduel split the slates properly. I’ll be walking you through options I like for both slates. We have a couple of decent pitching options on both slates and some solid stacks.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Gerrit Cole ($10.8K) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – After a stretch in June where Cole was really struggling with getting batters out and striking them out, it appears he has regained his form. Over the past 30 days Cole has a near 38% K rate and he’s brought his hard hit rate back down to just 26.9%.

The Rays hit for a lot of power, but we also know that if they aren’t hitting for power, they’re also striking out. Against righties this year they have a 25.5% K rate. Pitching against the Rays is never easy, but I like Cole to continue his stretch of solid pitching.

Luis Castillo ($8.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – It’s only a matter of time before the tear down of the Cubs happens. We’re quickly approaching the deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see some of the guys sit or get traded before the game.

In Castillo we’re getting a pitcher that’s been in excellent form. His last 2 starts have been arguably his best. He has 17 K’s in his last 13 innings of work. Look for Castillo to continue his solid string of outings with another dominant performance today.

Alec Mills ($7.1k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I will be sticking with the top 2 pitchers on the day slate, but if you want to get a little crazy (and who doesn’t like getting a little crazy every now and then) you want to take a look at Mills. There’s been a noticeable trend with the Reds in getaway days.

The offense generally is quiet and with the weather today being pitcher friendly Mills may be a good option. Over the last 30 days he’s actually been pretty good with a 3.53 xFIP that matches his ERA. His K rate is hovering around the 25% mark as well. Not a ‘wow’ guy, but he’s serviceable and should perform well today.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez – White Sox largely disappointed last night. I’m going right back to the well today because they get a match-up with a pitcher that’s been giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Over the past 30 days Hernandez is giving up a 41% hard hit rate with a 48% fly ball rate.

Hernandez doesn’t go deep so it means the Royals rely heavily on the bullpen when he pitches. In his last 7 outings the opposing team has scored 5 runs or greater in every outing. Hernandez’s fly ball rate shoots up to 50% against lefties so I want to ensure that Moncada ($3k), Sheets ($2.3k), and Goodwin ($2.4k) are in any White Sox stack today.

New York Mets vs. Drew Smyly – Really like this spot for the Mets today. Smyly is a very attackable pitcher. He’s a low strike out guy who’s been putting a lot of batters ton. His WHIP over the past 30 days is 1.43. If the Mets can show some patience today they should be able to get some runners on base for guys like Alonso ($3.6k) and Davis ($2.9k). Both guys should see a heavy dose of fastballs as Smyly throws it around 50% of the time to righties.

New York Yankees vs. Luis Patino – I should start with saying that Patino is a top pitching prospect. He’ll be a solid pitcher at the Major League level at some point. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle so far and if we look at his performance during July we can see we have a pitcher that we can attack.

He’s had a 38% hard hit rate and a near 49% fly ball rate. Until he can show he can consistently get hitters out, he’s someone we should attack. He tends to do worse against righties so I’m going to load up on the likes of Stanton ($3.4k), Judge ($4k), and Torres ($3.6k). All 3 have solid power numbers against sliders and they should see a healthy dose of them.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Frankie Montas ($8.8k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – On FD tonight i really don’t think you’ll need to stray from Montas. He’s cheap, he’s in peak form, and he’s facing a beaten up lineup that’s even more beaten up with Walsh going on the IL yesterday.

Montas over the last 30 days has a 30% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and just a 25% hard hit rate. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but he really is in a smash spot tonight. Outside of Ohtani, this is not an intimidating lineup. Montas is my SP1 tonight.

Freddy Peralta ($9.7k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is a little bit more than I’d like to pay for Peralta being that he hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in more than a month and he’ll continue to not go deep. But we’re very limited with pitching tonight so he’s one of the pitchers I’ll consider.

On the year Peralta has a 35% K rate which is one of the best in the game. The biggest red flag tonight with Peralta is that he’s facing a lineup that just doesn’t K much as the projected lineup has just a 22% K rate vs. righties this year.

Alex Cobb ($8.6k) vs. Oakland Athletics – If Cobb does indeed start tonight he’ll be in my top 3 pitchers to use. He’s not a sexy pick as his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days and isn’t much higher if we look at the year as a whole.

He is someone though that gives us one of the higher ceilings on the slate as he’s reached 45 FD points on multiple occasions over the past month and a half. While i will probably stick with Montas in this range, Cobb shouldn’t be too far behind in terms of results.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. Alex Wells – Who would have thought at the start of the year that the Tigers would be such a popular team to use as a stack? Not me. But here we are approaching August and the Tigers continue to put up big numbers.

Tonight they get a solid match up against a pitcher giving up lots of contact. In just 9 innings of work this year he’s given up a 46% hard hit rate and near 40% fly ball rate. With not being a high swing and miss guy, those numbers aren’t going to cut.

He throws is fastball more than 50% of the time and the Tigers have a bunch of guys that crush fastballs. My main targets here are Haase ($3.2k), Cabrera ($2.5k), and Schoop ($3.5k). Schoop will need to be monitored as he was a late scratch yesterday.

Baddoo ($3.5k) is hot and should also be a focus even though it’s a L/L match-up. Can’t expect Wells to go that long and at some point he’ll face a righty out of the pen.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Casey Mize – This is more a testament to the Tigers bullpen than it is for Mize. Mize hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month and we can’t really expect anything different tonight. We saw yesterday that the Tigers pen is prone to blow ups.

This game has the makings of a nice game stack. If we focus on Mize he has very clear splits. He is far more dominant vs. righties so we’ll want to key in on the Orioles lefties.

Mullins ($3.1k) and Stewart ($2.1k) are my primary targets as both guys have upside and Stewart is near min priced. While the rest of the Orioles are secondary pieces based on Mize, they turn to primary pieces once we get into the bullpen.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl – Kuhl has been much better over the past 30 days. His strikeouts are up and his xFIP is down. That said, I still want to pick on him because the Brewers lineup is hot with 4 of their last 5 games being at 6 runs or better.

Kuhl tends to give up harder contact against lefties and the Brewers have a few that we can attack him with. Wong ($3k), Narvaez ($2.4k), and Tellez ($2.2k) are my prime targets. If Escobar plays tonight he’s also be someone I’ll want to focus on.

Bonus Stack – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – There’s some weather concern in this game so I have it down on my list a bit. Blue Jays though are in a great spot. While Rodriguez has pitched well in his last couple of outings he’s also had a handful of outings this year where he’s blown up, with one coming against the Blue Jays in May.

Blue Jays line up very well with Rodriguez and his pitch type. They are a right handed heavy team and Rodriguez will throw them plenty of fastballs and change ups. We know that the Blue Jays are elite against fastballs, but they’re also great against change ups.

Guerrero ($4.5k), Semien ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.5k) all have ISO’s great than .200 against change ups. This could be another rough outing for Hernandez.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Both slates today will have limited pitching options. I will be focusing my efforts on Castillo in the early slate and Montas in the main slate. With limited pitching options we typically see great stacking opportunities and today is no exception.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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4 years ago 0 comments

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