The Memorial brings back great memories for Joel. The crew talks about that, give out their DFS and betting plays on The Memorial DFS Breakdown!
Sia – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Nick- @StixPicks
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!
Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.
Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.
Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.
Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.
Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.
Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.
Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)
Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.
Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.
Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.
Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.
Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.
Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.
More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)
Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.
Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.
Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.
Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander
If this is your first time reading my article, I’d like to talk about some PGA DFS basics. I only play on DraftKings (DK) so those are the salaries I refer to. My thoughts on the players should be good across the industry though. Strategy in DFS is very important. The players you pick differ substantially depending on the sport, type of game you are playing, and number of contestants in that particular game. This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments. Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. This article is intended to determine which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. For more on DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.
Muirfield Village is an aesthetically pleasing Jack Nicklaus designed golf course, just outside of Columbus, Ohio. The annual tournament got it’s name when it was completed, and dedicated on Memorial Day, 1974. Boasting a purse exceeding 9 million dollars, it sets up as the perfect test for the upcoming U.S. Open. Muirfield Village was re-designed after last year, to challenge the greatest all around golf games in the world. Setting up at 7,543 yards, this par 72 course is playing around 100 yards longer than last year. It seems they narrowed the landing zones of the fairways. They also added some sand, and 155 trees. Throw in the water, green-side bunkers, long Kentucky Blue-Grass rough, and this course will offer no leniency when penalizing strokes for errant shots. The oft elevated, newly contoured, and 75.8 rated Bentgrass greens will demand precision.
John Rahm is your defending champion, and Colin Morikawa won the Workday (played on the same, yet somewhat easier, course) the week prior to The Memorial in 2020. There is plenty of course history here, and on similar Jack Nicklaus designed courses. Let’s take a look at some key metrics that will help get our golfers on the leader board Sunday.
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG:APP) is important at every course, but it is extremely important here. Greens in regulation (GIR) is only 62% here in contrast to the tour average 66%, and the greens are small. This tells me that if a golfer can hit his approach shot, he’ll be close to the pin more often than not.
Par 4: 450-500. There are a lot of lengthy par 4s here. Having golfers that are good at them should help you climb the leader boards.
SG: Around The Green (ARG). This course will play long and players will miss the green (GIR mentioned above in the approach paragraph). Proximity to the hole out of green side bunkers is further here than any other course on tour. (It may be wise to at least look at sand saves. There’s a difference in ARG from the rough, or sand). Getting up and down in two will be a great tool to have in your bag.
Proximity 175-200. This will be the approach shot on almost all of the par 4’s and par 5’s.
SG: Putting (P). Golfers that are good on Bentgrass will be a big advantage. These small greens will require 2 putts or less on every hole.
SG: OTT. While not as important as most courses, your golfer will still need to avoid the lengthy rough. Also, having both SG:OTT, and SG:APP covers our ball striking (SG:BS) stat, yet keeps it separate so we can see the differences.
I want to start off by mentioning a trend I’ve been seeing. Balanced builds have recently been leading the way as far as DFS lineups are concerned. I also concur with a popular industry stance that there is no clear cut #1 player in the world. The PGA “studs” are all showing some flaws in their respective games right now. That being said, I will be fading the entire upper tier of salaries at this tournament, for the most part. I realize that everyone reading this article may not be entering cash games or small field GPP’s (only), so I’ll give my opinion on top tier rankings for those of you that are interested. Specifically referring to the six players $10K and up, this is how I’d break it down.
1. Rahm
2. Spieth
3. Morikawa
1. DeChambeau
2. Thomas
3. McIlroy
Now that we’ve got some house keeping done, let’s take a look at some of my core PGA DFS plays this week.
Viktor Hovland: $9900: Ranks in the top of the field in almost every key metric you can think of, INCLUDING SG:ARG, which is commonly thought of as his weakness. He’s been within a stroke of gaining in ARG in 22 of his last 25 tournaments.
Hideki Matsuyama: $9400: The Masters Champion is in great form, he’s great on Jack’s tracks, consistently under owned, SG:APP is his weapon, and he hasn’t lost over a stroke with the flat stick in 8 of his last 10.
Tony Finau: $9200: Another guy that’s great on Jack’s tracks, whose form seems to have made the turn for the better. Model has him 7th ARG, and 20th APP.
Scott Scheffler: $9000: Pure contrarian play. No one is on him after missing the cut last week, but he was T8 at the PGA Championship and DID shoot a 70 on Thursday last week. One of the best Jack’s tracks golfers in the field. I’m not jumping ship after one bad round, and neither should you.
Charlie Hoffman: $8300: History here has him priced too low. Just keep playing him in PGA DFS until his game tells you otherwise.
Keegan Bradley: $8000: One of the best ball strikers in the field, and his flat stick is finally coming around. Another great Jack’s tracks guy.
Emiliano Grillo: $7700: Flat stick and ARG are question marks, but his iron game, recent form, and history on Jack’s tracks are enough to make my list.
Xander Schauffele
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
Matt Fitzpatrick
Louis Oosthuizen
Shane Lowry
Gary Woodland
Kevin Streelman
Brendon Todd
Taylor Gooch
Aaron Wise
Alex Noren
Adam Hadwin
Kyle Stanley
It’s a good idea to read all the writers PGA DFS articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your lineups.
Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your PGA DFS lineups according to the contests you’re playing.
Join us in the Discord chat rooms as the writers break down and discuss our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone some keys to success at playing DFS and earn some extra money while doing something we love.
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**
***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***
Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)
Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.
Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.
****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****
Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.
Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.
Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.
Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.
Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.
Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.
Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?
Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.
Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.
Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.
*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****
Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)
******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)
Hopefully you have already reviewed The Range and are ready to start attacking lineups. Below are my initial picks in this loaded Memorial field. As subscribers know, these picks are further developed during the week in Discord, the Livestream and with further articles from our golf team which will isolate even more golfers to consider in cash and GPP. Please monitor the ownership projections that we deliver in Discord and that are put out by Steven early Wednesday evening. Let’s get after it.
Collin Morikawa (10000) – There are so many arguments that can be made for golfers in this elite price range and if I had to pick an honorable mention, it would be Bryson (certain to have a few shares of Bryson as well) but Morikawa appears to be the safer and more automatic option of the group. I just can’t really believe how unflappable this guy is and what he showed me on Sunday was that his next golf shot is just another shot. He is on auto-pilot and that’s what I prefer to fly with this weekend.
Patrick Cantlay (9800) – Wasn’t great to start at Workday but started to really catch fire on the weekend. Given that he has only played two tournaments since the restart I think we can legitimately attribute the slow start last week to some rust, and now we may have a guy that is ready to fire for all four rounds. The T2G numbers are outstanding and he won here last year and was 4th the year before (7th last week at Workday after that slow start).
Jon Rahm (9300) – I’d like to think Rahm found something last Sunday as he finally woke up and fired 8 birdies and an eagle (with two bogeys). His paltry 27th place finish will keep ownership down but we will have to monitor that as we head toward Thursday. Rahm hasn’t met his potential yet this year, but at 9300 we are definitely getting some value for a guy that is consistently thought of as a Top 5 golfer in the world.
Daniel Berger (8700) – There is a lot emerging talent in golf and Berger is clearly near the head of that class. He has been absent the last few weeks but he came out firing post-pandemic with a 1st and 3rd place finish. Add his 4th place at the Honda Classic before the pandemic and he has finished Top 4 in his last three tournaments. His APP and OTT numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page and he does tend to lean on a hot putter but I love where he is at right now and I put him squarely in the unflappable category along with Morikawa.
Gary Woodland (8600) – Fair to say the relationship between the DFS community and Gary Woodland is squarely in the love/hate department as of late. With that said, he absolutely dominated the weekend on this track just a few days ago and it all appears to be explained by his change in drivers. Prior to last week Woodland was losing a laughable amount of strokes OTT and it appears that he has corrected that. This may be a case of recency bias on my part, but I can’t ignore the success with the club change so I’ll go ahead and put Woodland in the love column.
Abraham Ancer (8500) – If there were such thing as a golf-crush, I’ve got it in Double-A. His history at The Memorial ain’t great with only a 65th and 57th over the last two years, but his ball striking is prime. He’s finished Top 15 in his last three events. He’s coming off of a two week layoff and I’m perfectly ok with that as I’m guessing his focal point this month was to be ready for The Memorial. Gains in every strokes gained category, and particularly on approach. Be weary of some chalk here, but still a solid cash and GPP play (he’s an outright play for me as well at 45 to 1).
Sergio Garcia (7800) – We know the ball striking can be elite with Sergio and we know he has plenty of upside, which includes a 5th place finish at the RBC. Most of Sergio’s issues reveal themselves with the putter and I’m always willing to take a risk on a guy who has good GIR but needs to get hot with the putter (much like Corey Conners who I will also have a few shares of).
Harris English (7300) – This feels like an easy call at this price which is why I’m weary of it, but I respect the SG metrics too much here to be off of Harris English. He gains OTT and on APP and can get hot with the putter. He’s only played two tournaments since the restart and that included a chalky missed cut and a nice 17th place finish bounce back at the RBC. Another good value play here.
Keegan Bradley (7200) – Believe it or not, Keegan led the field last week in APP. Not exactly savvy with the putter and finished a disappointing 39th last week. If he can even moderately replicate what he did on APP and have couple hot days with the putter, you’ve got yourself a gem in Keegan. His track record at Memorial is up and down but it includes three Top 25 finishes in the last 5 years and two Top 10 finishes in 2015 and 2016.
Lucas Glover (7100) – A great ball striker who can also drive the ball. Glover checks most of the boxes, including the fact that he’s finished within the Top 25 in his last 4 tournaments. In a field like this, the upside is going to be limited with Glover but he can be a cut maker and a birdie maker on the weekend.
Bernd Wiesberger (6600) – When you get down to this price range you need to look for outliers and perhaps some narrative building. Bernd is a solid player with some solid wins under his belt, albeit on the Euro Tour. With that said, winning matters in fields like this because I think his expectation will be that he can hang with the big boys. He’s solid OTT and on APP and will need to have a hot putter to make the cut and do some weekend damage. Solid punt play here.
Troy Merritt (6600) – On him last week and it paid off as he finished 22nd. He also finished 8th at the Rocket Mortgage and finished 17th here last year. Feels like we have a golfer who has found his stroke and is worthy of a couple shares in this punt-play range.
Again, stay tuned for much more from the Win Daily Golf Teamand tune into the Livestream tonight as I will talk golf (and much more) withMichael Rasile. And please subscribe tothe Win Daily Podcast. See you inDiscord!
The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour stays in Ohio as the players face off in The Memorial.
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Course
Par: 72
Length: 7,392 yards
Fairways: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass / Poa
Architect: Jack Nicklaus
Past winners: ’19 Cantlay (-19), ’18 DeChambeau (-15), ’17 Dufner (-13), ’16 McGirt (-15) & ’15 Lingmerth (-15)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.
Last week at the Workday Charity Open, my boy Collin Morikawa took down his second win on tour. The tournament was held at the Muirfield Village Golf Course. This week… it’s at the Muirfield Village Golf Course. For what I believe is the first time in PGA Tour history (at least recently), a tournament will held on the same course, on back to back weeks.
There will only be a few changes from last week and this week for The Memorial. One will be the speed of the greens. Last week they ran at around 11, with this tournament the speed reaching will be 13 on the stimp meter (fast). Also it’s said the grounds crew will be letting the rough become more penal. They’re letting it grow to 4″ where it was only 3″ last week. Other then that the course will play relatively the same.
The Memorial plays pretty average in terms of scoring, with the occasional low score. Last year Cantlay won it at -19 and just last week Morikawa won the tournament at -19 in a playoff against Justin Thomas’ The fairways are relatively easy to hit and while distance can help on a few holes, it’s negated with the setup of the course. While gaining strokes off the tee will help, the approach game is essential.
Bentgrass throughout the course, the greens are no exception. This week the greens’ speed will be ramped up and I believe this makes putting easier, overall on average. While I will still look at golfers who can stroke it with the short stick, it will not be as highly emphasized. Just last week two of the top 10 finished the week losing strokes to the field putting.
The Memorial has several par 4s that fall in the range from 450 – 500 yards. On the flip side the four easiest holes are all par 5 between 500 – 550 yards. While not exactly at 200 yards or less, all four par 3 are between 175 – 200 yards (hole 4 – 206 & hole 16 – 208). On average most of the approach shots come from this 175 – 200 yard range. Looking for golfers that perform well in these areas will be wise to not only scoring birdies but avoiding bogies.
Briefly mentioned up in the course breakdown section, Strokes Gained Ball Striking helps but I want to put a heavier weighting on Strokes Gained Approach. This course, like last week is a second shot course.
Using Fantasy National targeting golfers who do well in setting up themselves up to score birdies will be huge. On top, look at birdie or better and bogey avoidance for golfers who can score well here.
While we want all of our golfers to get up and down if not better with no problems, that’s simply not possible. To help with that though, golfers who do well in Greens In Regulation should be looked at. In case things that go sideways, scrambling will come in handy.
Last week there was a significant advantage to getting to the weekend stacking the PM/AM wave. Look again this week to see if there is a possible wave to take advantage. A stacked field at The Memorial chalk once again has a chance of winning. It will be finding the few diamonds in the rough that put your lineups over the top.
Course Setup
Average scoring
Easy to hit fairways
Bentgrass greens
Player Efficiencies
SG: Ball Striking (Heavier on Approach)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards
Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
GIR
Scrambling
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research for The Memorial. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
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