Sports Betting

Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we get a good one tonight as two potential playoff teams square off in the Saints and Chiefs. We had a solid weekend as several of our experts were bullish on QB Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco, which helped immediately turn your lineups into a green screen. So we’ll look to cap off a great weekend with another money-making strategy article for this big showdown in KC. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Running Back

The Chiefs deploy a top-notch rushing defense. They allow the 5th lowest rushing yards per game and are ranked #3 in rush defense DVOA. Even more important, they allow the fewest fantasy points (DraftKings) to running backs. And it’s not like RB’s are doing damage in the pass game either, as they’ve allowed just 12 receptions to running backs, which is tied for fewest in the league coming into Week 5. As we know, a big part of RB Alvin Kamara’s game is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. So that’s an important stat to consider.

But the good news for Kamara is that he’s almost matchup proof. And that’s due to a high volume of usage, as Kamara has 97 touches in 4 games (24.5/game). And he leads the league with an 82% snap count over the first four weeks.

Therefore, regardless of the matchup, Kamara is a must play on most of your builds tonight. Backup RB Jamaal Williams did see 5 touches last week but has seen just 13% of the snaps this season.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: Jamaal Williams

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs are solid against WR’s too but do have some holes that can be exploited in the defensive backfield. For one, they rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA. Secondly, they’ve allowed four receiving TD’s to WR’s this season as well as 42 receptions. And according to PFF, the Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL in pass coverage. So there are points to be had in the passing game for the Saints.

DB Trent McDuffie has been very good for the Chiefs this season and has kept #1 WR’s, like Zay Flowers and Ja’Marr Chase, to minimal yardage games. On the other side, Jaylen Watson has been good too but susceptible to big plays.

After a slow Week 1, when he wasn’t needed, Chris Olave has turned it on. In the last three games he’s hauled in 18 of his 22 targets for 254 yards and 1 TD. The Saints #2 WR, Rashid Shaheed, has more targets than Olave on the season (25 to 24) and has averaged more fantasy points (13.5 to 13.3). No other Saints receiver has more than 4 catches on the season as they focus on the RB’s and TE’s outside of Shaheed and Olave.

Tier 1: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

Tier 2:

Punts: Mason Tipton

Tight End

The Chiefs have been vulnerable against TE’s this year as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to that position. IN fact, they are one of only two teams to allow over 300 yards receiving to TE’s this season (going into Week 5). We can all remember the big game that Isaiah Likely had in Week 1, which was followed up by a 7 reception 91 yard performance by Cincy TE Mike Gesicki.

With Taysom Hill out, I like Johnson to see the field over 50% of the snaps. Backup TE Foster Moreau could be considered for salary relief but being that Johnson is only $400 more, I’d focus on the starter for my builds.

Tier 1: Juwan Johnson

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable: Foster Moreau

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Running Back

The Chiefs are ravaged by injuries to key offensive players, especially at the RB position as lead Isaiah Pacheco is still on the IR with a broken leg. While they preferred to survive his absence with rookie RB Carson Steele, he has developed a case of fumble-itis resulting in his demotion last week. Instead, the Chiefs have turned to castoff Kareem Hunt who led the team with 14 carries last week against the Chargers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not been activated per this writing, so it looks to be Hunt then Samaje Perine with a sprinkle of Carson Steele if needed.

The Saints rank 8th in rushing defense DVOA and 19th in PFF’s rushing defense grading. Excluding Week 1 and 2, where the Saints blew away teams and forced them into passing, the Saints have allowed 260 yards rushing and an average of 6.5 yards per carry. So there is room to run against New Orleans, especially in more competitive game environments like the one predicted tonight.

Tier 1: Kareem Hunt 

Tier 2: Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs suffered another devastating injury last week this time to star WR Rashee Rice. The jury is still out to what the extent of his injury is. But it’s certain that he’ll be out a minimum of four week as he was officially placed on the IR last week.

Which means the KC receiving corps is where you have to be right tonight as I expect an unknown, or lowly owned, player to be the hero of the slate. The Saints have a strong defensive backfield led by CB Marshon Lattimore. But it’s Patrick Mahomes who can dissect any good defense. His passing numbers have been down of late, but he’s still the best in the game and has enough weapons to make big plays tonight.

I prefer the rookie, Xavier Worthy, the most as they use him in many different ways including the run game. After that it’s a crap shoot. But keep an eye on WR Justin Watson who saw the 3rd most targets last week and has the trust of Mahomes. Other names that need to be on your radar are Justyn Ross and Nikko Remigio, as both took snaps with the first team in practices this week with Mecole Hardman sitting out with a knee injury.

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: Justin Watson, JuJu Smith Schuster, Sky Moore

Tier 3/Cheap Options: Justyn Ross, Nikko Remigio

Tight End

We’re waiting for our first Travis Kelce breakout game of the season. And after watching what Eagles TE Dallas Goedert did against New Orleans, I’m betting that comes tonight on MNF. Kelce showed signs of life last week as he brought in 7 catches on 9 targets. To put that in perspective, he had just 8 receptions combined in the first 3 weeks. And the Saints, as alluded to with Goedert, have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TE’s this year.

Of note, Noah Gray saw four targets last week as the Chiefs did run many 2 TE sets with Rice injured.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Alvin Kamara, Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce. I’m passing on Derek Carr at the MVP position because he’s not playing the Panthers or Cowboys (averaged 9 fantasy points in weeks not playing Carolina and Dallas). Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll look at Kamara and Kelce as my favorites but my two favorites outside of those are Shaheed and Worthy.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes

FDMVP Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Chris Olave, Xavier Worthy

FDMVP Tier 3: Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Travis Kelce, Alvin Kamara

DK CPT Tier 2: Xavier Worthy, Rashid Shaheed, Kareem Hunt

DK CPT Tier 3: Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Patrick Mahomes

DK CPT Punt: Justin Watson

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Travis Kelce
• Alvin Kamara
• Xavier Worthy
• Patrick Mahomes
• Kareem Hunt
• Chris Olave
• Juwan Johnson
• Rashid Shaheed

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Derek Carr
• Noah Gray
• Justin Watson
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Harrison Butker
• Blake Grupe
• Saints D
• Chiefs D

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Justyn Ross
• Sky Moore
• Nikko Remigio

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one stud RB, likely both. Both have tough matchups, but both teams also lack a full arsenal of WR’s. So they will use the RB’s in the passing game as much as possible.
• Travis Kelce is my favorite player of the night due to the Saints issues matching up with TE’s. And Kelce’s knack to step up in big game (i.e. prime time).
• If you play Kelce and Xavier Worthy then you’ll need to find space for Mahomes.
• I like Juwan Johnson a lot, and he’s good salary relief if building around the Chiefs passing game.
• Don’t be afraid to play one of the Chiefs less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Justin Watson as my favorite of the group. But both Remigio and Ross are intriguing and if play if we get news that one is starting.
• Only play 1 QB, or none. I prefer Mahomes over Carr. I don’t think there’s enough points scored to play both QB’s (total is 43)
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is 43 and the weather is calm. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 4 hung us with our first negative outcome of the season as surprising contenders, looking at you Minnesota and Washington, kept up their winning ways. Eventually, we will see regression with these teams but they have proven they are here to stay for the 2024 season. In the first weekend for byes, we look to a shorter slate to make our rebound and get back to, or over, 0.500. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 5 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 7-9)

MIAMI DOLPHINS +1 at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I wasn’t sure if it could get any worse for Miami after they were dominated in Seattle in Week 3. The addition of Tyler Huntley gave hope that the so-called offensive mastermind would be able to flip the switch quickly and have the Dolphins clicking on all cylinders. But then Monday night happened and we saw an absolute embarrassment of a performance as Miami put up just 184 total yards against Tennessee and lost 31-12. While I have major question marks about the Fins coaching staff, they still have premium talent on offense and some big names defensively. So I’m hopeful that a beatdown on national TV will inspire a group of proud men to make the necessary changes, starting this week in New England.

The Dolphins also have some good news as they are supposedly getting back RB Raheem Mostert, OL Terron Armstead and DB Kendall Fuller for this game. And the Patriots recently lost the key to their offensive line as C David Andrews is out with a shoulder injury.

I expect the Dolphins to slow this thing down to a halt and attack with their running game now that they have Mostert healthy and he can shed some of the load. The Patriots are having significant issues at RB (Stevenson fumbling) and OL, which the Dolphins should take advantage of and create havoc on QB Jacoby Brissett. I’ll bank on an ugly game but one where Huntley pulls out some magic late and is able to lead the Dolphins to a GW FG.

LA RAMS +3.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

Jordan Love made his return last week and almost brought the Packers back from 21 points down to beat the Vikings. He led the Pack on three touchdown scoring drives in the 4th quarter which gives hope that GB is back to the way they played last year when they made the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs.

However, I’m backing the Rams today as they gear up to play just their 2nd home game of the season. Yes, the Rams are banged up especially at WR as Cooper Kupp will miss his 3rd straight game. But they still have Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams, and Green Bay’s D has struggled this year ranking 19th in team defense DVOA and is allowing 23 points per game.

The main reason I’m backing LA is twofold. First, Green Bay has some dissention in the room as they have suspended WR Romeo Doubs for not showing up to practice this week. His omission from mandatory practice was due to him questioning his role in the offense. And secondly, when the Packers beat the Rams 20-3 last season, that marked the single lowest point total and yards gained in HC Sean McVay’s career. I’m sure he’s circled that and is chomping at the bit to ensure that doesn’t happen again. And as we speak, 71% of the bets and 80% of the money are backing the Pack setting this up for a big fade the public play.

CINCINATTI BENGALS +2.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS

Everyone saw the Ravens demolition of Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. It got so bad that Mitch Trubisky had to play a few series for the Bills as they threw up the white flag early in the 4th quarter. The most surprising part was Baltimore’s ability to run the ball as they gained an eye-opening 271 yards on the ground. We all know the Ravens are the best running team in the league, but to average 8.0 yards/carry against an NFL team for an entire game is impressive.

And those optics, are exactly why I like the Cincinatti Bengals today. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week in Carolina. The outcome was somewhat predictable, but the way they did it was surprising. The Bengals had their best rushing output of the season racking up 141 yards on the ground. RB Chase Brown broke out with 80 yards rushing and two TD’s. Being able to show a balanced offense will be a huge key to the Bengals getting back in the AFC North race.

Back to the optics, almost everyone will back the Ravens here as they have been on primetime in three of the four weeks to start the season. People have seen them almost beat KC, then dominate both Dallas and Buffalo. The eye test says the Ravens are great, and that’s what the public will back. We’re seeing 82% of the bets and 71% of the money on Baltimore.

And remember, the Bengals season ended at Baltimore last year when Joe Burrow went down with a wrist injury. Cincy had taken a 10-7 lead but learned quickly after a short TD throw that Burrow’s hand/wrist was severely injured. That spelled doom for that game and the rest of the season. Additionally, there is urgency with Cincinatti as falling to 1-4 could completely derail their season again. Getting to 2-3 and owning the tiebreaker against Baltimore would go a long way in getting back into the division race.

HOUSTON TEXANS -1 vs BUFFALO BILLS

It’s revenge day for someone today when the Bills travel to Houston to face the Texans. And I’m leaning on WR Stephon Diggs to have the last laugh. There has been much said about the relationship between QB Josh Allen and Diggs, and the two made a split this offseason as Diggs was shipped off to Houston. We’ve seen Allen perform admirably so far, with just 1 turnover in four games. But he is missing Diggs, as no Buffalo WR averages more than 57 yards receiving per game.

For Houston, last week’s comeback against Jacksonville was thrilling to say the least. But it did show another week of underwhelming results from the offense as they had only 17 points until the final drive. They are averaging just 19.9 points per game this season. But a win like that can be inspiring and I expect the offense to show some extra burst today as they have motivation and momentum on their side.

The public also backs Buffalo today with 69% of the bets coming in on the road team.

SURVIVOR PICK

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Gmen played tough against the Cowboys but managed just 5 FG’s. They struggle to score and that will be a factor today in the upper Northwest as the Seahawks are averaging 25.3 points per game..

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Titans and Dolphins in the early game and the Seahawks at the Lions slated for the normal MNF time slot.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 10 points apart. We have the Titans/Dolphins set at 37 points while the Seahawks/Lions are at 47 points. That’s important to note as we’ll want to be a little heavy on the later game tonight based on point scoring potential at 30% higher than the Titans/Dolphins game.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.

JARED GOFF ($6400 DK) – It’s safe to say the Lions have won two of their first three games despite Goff. On the season, he has 4 interceptions to go with just 3 TD’s. And his current QBR is 34.6 which is his lowest since 2016, his rookie season. And he faces a tough matchup tonight as the Seahawks have allowed the 2nd lowest passing yards in the league, at just 132.3 yds/game in the air. Additionally, Seattle’s pass coverage ranks as the top unit in the league posting an 89.9 grade on PFF. That’s mainly due to the dynamic duo of Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon at DB who both rank in the top 20 in the NFL according to PFF.

However, I still think there’s value in Goff for several reasons. First is his recent form against Seattle. The Lions have played the Seahawks in each of the past two seasons, and Goff has 701 yards passing and seven touchdowns in those games. Secondly, the Seahawks have faced a putrid trio of QB’s this season. The triumvirate of Bo Nix, Jacoby Brisset and Skylar Thompson don’t necessarily give us a good indication of how good Seattle’s pass D really is. Afterall, Seattle ranked 28th in DVOA pass defense in 2023. So I expect regression tonight and for that reason rank Goff as the top QB on the slate.

GENO SMITH ($5900 DK) – Geno Smith has the best matchup on the slate as the Lions rank 21st in passing yards allowed, giving up 216.7 per game through the air. He’s also coming off two productive games in a row, where he averaged 308 passing yards per game. Geno can also be a threat in the running game as he’s accounted for one rushing TD on eleven carries this year. Because the salary difference between Smith and Huntley/Levis is minimal, and the matchup is right, the Seahawks signal caller comes in as my QB#2 tonight.

TYLER HUNTLEY ($5500 DK) – Huntley was signed off the Baltimore practice squad earlier this week and is now being thrust into the lineup as the Fins starting QB. And this isn’t new to Huntley as he’s been forced into emergency action several times in the past three years. In fact, he’s seen the field 18 times since 2021 often filling in for an injured Lamar Jackson. So the lights won’t be too big for Huntley and he should be free to perform well with the weapons at his side.

While Tennessee has a good pass D, ranking 3rd in the NFL, they also haven’t seen dynamic passing offenses. Their pass D was one of the worst last year, ranking 24th in DVOA. Huntley is definitely in play for me tonight as he has nothing to lose and can play free an loose. Expect him to take some shots deep to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle while also using his legs to escape trouble when needed.

In reality, this is QB#2b for me tonight as I do have his projections close to Geno.

WILL LEVIS ($5200 DK) – Levis hasn’t been good for the 0-3 Titans. And he’s giving his head coach fits, as Brian Callahan has been forced to eat his words on a few occasions about his young QB. He’ll likely get volume tonight, but his eight turnovers are concerning. I can see a world where he would be worth it on a slate with high priced QB’s, but being he’s only a few hundred dollars less than Smith and Huntley, this is a pass for me.

Tier 1: Jared Goff, Geno Smith

Tier 2: Tyler Huntley

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.

DEVON ACHANE ($7200 DK) – The concern with Achane is the potential for opponents to stack the box because of poor QB play. But with Huntley starting, and being a serviceable QB in the league, there is some optimism that Achane could get back to his normal way. The other good news is the backfield is still clearly his. In their week 3 loss in Seattle, Achane had 74% of the snaps and 73.6% of the touches.

JAHMRY GIBBS ($6900 DK) – The Lions backfield is always hard to predict as snap counts are almost 50/50 on the year between Montgomery and Gibbs. As we all know, the production is clearly different as Gibbs has almost the same amount of yards as Montgomery but on 8 less touches. However, I’m sticking with Gibbs over Montgomery in most of my lineups due to explosive play potential and the need for Detroit to attack Seattle at the edges (including in the passing game).

DAVID MONTGOMERY ($6400 DK) – Montgomery has 51 carries in 3 weeks, which comes out to 17 per game. So he’s definitely in play tonight and you could pair him with Gibbs. In that case, you would need to pivot off Goff and use a different QB since you’re banking on big production in the run game.

KENNETH WALKER III ($6300 DK) – The return of Kenneth Walker III is great news for season long fantasy owners. However, tonight is not the greatest matchup as Detroit has the #1 ranked rush defense against fantasy RB’s. And this is coming off a season in 2023 where Detroit was #1 in rushing defense DVOA. I’d pivot away from the Seattle running game tonight and focus more on their WR’s. Plus we could be on a pitch count here with Charbonnet sharing some of the load.

TONY POLLARD ($6000 DK) – Pollard has the best matchup on the slate as Miami has been giving up big games to RB’s (remember James Cook on TNF in week 2). In order for Levis to stop his turnover, Tennessee needs more out of their running game. However, Callahan is a classic pass first coach so it’s hard to see him relying on the run game if things go awry. Pollard is in play because of matchup but I prefer the Miami and Detroit running games.

Tier 1: DEVON ACHANE, JAHMYR GIBBS

Tier 2: DAVID MONTGOMERY, TONY POLLARD

Wide Receiver

AMON-RA ST BROWN ($8200 DK) – St Brown has recovered from an off game in week 1 to come back with 18 catches and 198 yards in his past two games. Because Detroit moves him all around the field, I’m not concerned with him being blanketed by Woolen. And past history shows he has good numbers against the Seahawks reeling in 14 catches for 213 yards in two career games against Seattle. He’s virtually matchup proof.

TYREEK HIL ($7900 DK) – Since losing Tua, Hill has seen just 6 catches for 64 yards in two games. I do think Huntley will try to force him the ball and expect him to rebound tonight. The Cheetah can’t be held down for three games in a row.

DK METCALF ($6800 DK) – Great matchup and great history here. Metcalf gets a Lions defense that is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to WR this season. In three career games against Detroit, he’s averaging 6.3 catches, 95.7 yards and one TD. That’s good for over 20 points/game. This is my #1 WR tonight.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA ($5500 DK)/TYLER LOCKETT ($5000 DK) – Of the two I prefer JSN tonight as Detroit has struggled against slot WR’s. Just look at what Cooper Kupp did to them in Week 1. He also has more catches, targets and yards than Lockett. But both are in play.

CALVIN RIDLEY ($5900 DK)/DEANDRE HOPKINS ($5300 DK) – The Dolphins have been susceptible to bigger WR’s this season. We saw Brian Thomas Jr have the most catches and get the only receiving TD for the Jags in week 1. And DK Metcalf was the leading WR for Seattle last week. So my lean, of the two, is Hopkins. Both are underwhelming but on a short slate I may find some room for one Titan WR tonight.

Of note, GABE DAVIS ($4200 DK) is in revenge mode tonight against his former team. He’s worth noting as they may try to force the ball into Davis at times.

Tier 1: DK METCLAF, AMON-RA ST BROWN

Tier 2: TYREEK HILL, JAYLEN WADDLE,

TIER 3: JAXON SMITH NJIGBA, DEANDRE HOPKINS, JAMESON WILLIAMS, CALVIN RIDLEY

Tight End

With have one big name TE who has underperformed this season but has a plus matchup. The other TE’s are low salary and low volume.

Tier 1: SAM LAPORTA

Tier 2: CHIG OKONKWO, NOAH FANT, JONU SMITH

DEFENSE

I prefer the defenses in the early game and am hoping the later game is a shootout.

Tier 1: MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Tier 2: TENNESSEE TITANS, DETROIT LIONS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns. I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Devon Achane. I’ll also consider Gibbs, Goff, and Metcalf for the night game.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.

Best Rules for the slate (TEN at MIA):

• Play Devon Achane. Tennessee may sell out to stop him but he’s will still see 15+ touches.
• In showdowns, I may look at both Huntley and Levis since there could be issues getting points in other areas. Of the two I prefer Huntley.
• I will play one of Hill or Waddle. Not enough pass volume for both to go nuts.
• Tony Pollard is in play on showdowns. I still don’t feel comfortable with his role in a pass happy offense that is led by a turnover prone QB.
• My order of preference at Ten WR is DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley then Chig Okonkwo.
• l will play many lineups with Miami D. Levis has turned the ball over 8 times in three games and several resulted in defensive TD’s..
• Both kickers are in play.

Best Rules for the slate (SEA at DET):

• Play Amon-Ra St. Brown in most (if not all) lineups. I’ll primarily have him at MVP and CPT since we can find salary relief in other places. As I said earlier, he’s matchup proof.
• I prefer Jared Goff to Geno Smith but will see if I can fit both in my lineups as I fad Seattle running game.
• DK Metcalf will be in most, if not all, my lineups.
• Sam LaPorta has a plus matchup. If using him and St Brown, consider fading Lions running attack.
• Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
• Seattle should look to pass often, JSN and Lockett should be considered.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 3 was another slow week for us. Overall, we were 2-2 but fell trap to two AFC South teams that looked better than they actually are. However, the savvy pick of the Panthers helped close out that day and give us some momentum going into Week 4. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 3 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 6-6)

ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Jayden Daniels showed up and showed out on MNF this week against the Bengals. The 2nd pick in the draft set a rookie record for completion percentage by going 21 of 23 in the air. And he parlayed that with 39 rushing yards including a TD. The most impressive part is they scored on all 6 possessions outside of kneeling on the ball. Take that all the way back to Week 1, and they’ve scored on 14 straight possessions and haven’t punted since early in the 4th quarter against TB. The Commanders look like they have a special talent at QB and are going to be a force to be reckoned with this season.

But the issue they’re facing today is travel fatigue and betting over reaction. The Commanders have played in Florida, Maryland, Ohio and now Arizona. They’re traveling 5 hours in the air on a short week after playing on MNF. While it’s a small sample size, the two winners on Monday Football this season, are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS the following week. As for the public, they are running to the window to back Daniels and the Commanders. The issue they’re not factoring in is that the Washington Defense is last in the NFL in yards allowed and 2nd last in points allowed. DVOA ranks the Commanders as the worst defense in the league overall and against the pass. That’s not good news as the Cardinals have a strong offense that is averaging 27 ppg and 8th overall in offensive DVOA.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Pack are back! And they’re doing it with their backup QB in Malik Willis. The former 1st round pick is 2-0 and has a QBR of 89.5 in relief of Jordan Love. The latter has been practicing all week and is a game time decision for today’s game. But while Willis has been solid, it has been Green Bay’s running game that has propelled them to two straight wins. The Packers lead the NFL in rushing yards with 204 yards/game on the ground. Overall, they boast the 5th best offensive attack.

The Vikings have been the most impressive team in this young NFL season. With their own backup paving the way, Minnesota is 3-0 with wins against solid teams like San Francisco and Houston. Their defense has been the story ranking #1 in DVOA and creating 6 turnovers in three weeks. But they are just 14th in yards allowed as teams have been able to move the ball against them, particularly in the air.

The books are taking in 83% of the tickets on Minnesota but just 40% of the money. The sharps are on Green Bay and likely for good reason as they’ve started to play good defense of their own, as they lead the league with 7 interceptions.

BUFFALO BILLS +2.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

We have a great game for SNF tonight as the Bills travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in the Charm City. The Bills have been impressive this season sprinting out to a 3-0 record and leading the league in point differential with a +64 number. They’ve dominated the last two opponents in the Dolphins and Jaguars, winning each by a minimum of 21 points.

The Ravens got a much needed win last week in Dallas. They looked like a dominant team once again but had to hold on late as they allowed Dallas to outscore them 19-0 in the 4th quarter. And that gave me concerns once again with Baltimore as their pass defense was a sieve. On the season, they rank 32nd in pass D and are allowing almost 300 yards/game in the air.

The Ravens have looked sloppy in trying to close out games and they now face the best QB in the NFL right now. I’m seeing a revelation with Josh Allen’s game as he’s yet to turn the ball over in 3 weeks (first time he’s done that in his career). So I’m riding the team that has been showing their teeth and winning in every way possible versus a Ravens team that has been struggling to do the same.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +2.5 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Write up to be posted by 10am.

SURVIVOR PICK

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

The Patriots offensive line is a mess, and the 49ers will wreak havoc in the backfield creating negative plays and turnovers.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 3 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Jaguars and Bills in the early game and the Commanders at the Bengals slated for the normal MNF time slot.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two of them have premier matchups while the other two will need to find ways to score against quality pass defenses. Let’s dig in and see which QB’s make the most sense for our builds.

JOSH ALLEN ($7800 DK) – The Bills star has had two distinctly different performances in 2024. In week 1, his team went down early to Arizona and Allen was forced to wear a cape and win the game for Buffalo. By doing so, he ended up as the highest scoring QB with 31.2 fantasy points. In Week 2, his running game and defense dominated, and Allen was not asked to do much. That resulted in a 9.8 fantasy point outing good for 28th in the league. Overall, he’s 3rd in points per game at 20.5 and can break the slate on any given week regardless of matchup.

There are some concerns with Allen’s receiving corps as Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid have combined for just 9 catches and 95 yards in two games. He needs more out of those two in order to break free in the passing totals. But that should improve this week as Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing DVOA and has allowed the 8th most fantasy points/game to WR’s. They could be without nickel corner Darnell Savage Jr. tonight as well as he’s labeled as questionable.

Allen’s hand looks to be a non-factor. But if it puts him in more running situations, that would be good news for fantasy owners. While a small sample size, the Jags have allowed 31 yards rushing and 1 TD to opposing QB’s. And those were to signal callers who typically don’t run in DeShaun Watson and Tua Tagovailoa. Passing or running, I expect a big game from Allen and reason to back him as the top QB choice on the board.

TREVOR LAWRENCE ($5700 DK) – I’m not prepared to attack a good Bills pass defense with a QB that has a 51% completion rate and is averaging just 191 yards/game passing this season. TLaw has not been able to find rhythm and some of that is due to a bad offensive line (7 sacks allowed in 2 games). According to PFF the Jags have the 9th worst pass blocking unit this season. Which isn’t great news as the Bills have the 5th best pass rush, racking up six sacks of their own.

JAYDEN DANIELS ($6000 DK) – There are only two QB’s with a better fantasy point per game average better than Josh Allen. And one of those is tonight’s starting QB for the Commanders, Jayden Daniels. What is eye opening with that statement is that he’s done it with 0 passing TD’s this season. That’s because most of his damage has been done on the ground as he’s gained 132 yards and scored 2 TD’s rushing in the first two games of this season. Projecting how teams fare against rushing QB’s can be difficult, but we do know the Bengals are bleeding yards to runners. In fact, the two QB’s they’ve faced have each gone over 29 yards rushing and are averaging 5.5 yards/carry.

The concern for me tonight is seeing how Daniels will get his yards in the air. Last week the Commanders settled for 7 field goals and were 0 for 6 in the redzone. In week 1 against Tampa, Daniels managed to rack up points in the 2nd half but the game was already out of hand. But I’m using the college approach here and put Daniels as my QB2 tonight based on his versatility and dedicated focus on running. He will get 10+ carries and over 50 yards which offsets the potential lack of passing TD’s.

JOE BURROW ($6300 DK) – This is a great price for Burrow as he takes on the 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. We anticipate plenty of big plays in the Bengals passing game. And while I’ll gladly have shares of Burrow, the lack of a running game in Cincy limits his potential to put up huge numbers. While Washington has struggled in coverage and pass rush, they’re also bad at stopping the run. So I do expect Cincy to focus on getting that part right against a team they can exploit. Burrow becomes by QB3 based on the potential game script at hand.

Tier 1: Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels

Tier 2: Joe Burrow

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups and volume with our back usage.

TRAVIS ETIENNE JR ($7100 DK) – The Bills have allowed an average of 20.5 points to fantasy RB’s this season. That’s 7th most in the NFL. The big issue has been their inability to stop the RB’s in the passing game as opponent running backs have 15 catches in 2 games. Etienne is a threat as a receiver, catching 58 balls for 476 yards last season. Because I’m off Lawrence, I will be getting shares of the Jags running game tonight. It looks like Tank Bigsby may miss another game, leading to another game of 70% or more snaps for Etienne (72% in Week 2 w/o Bigsby).

JAMES COOK ($6800 DK) – Cook had a career game in Week 2, scoring three TD’s for Buffalo. But that came on just 12 touches as the Bills had a comfortable lead and were able to share duties. But he’s no doubt the premiere rusher in Buffalo and will be the focal point of their run game. The Jags fared well against the Dolphins in week 1, allowing just 3.2 yards/carry. That carried over to Week 2 as well, limiting the Browns to 4.3 yards/carry. For me, Cook is in play in my lineups with Daniels as QB. I’ll pair him up with Allen in a very small percentage of my lineups due to goal line carry concerns.

BRIAN ROBINSON ($5900 DK) – One of my favorite spots of the night at RB as Robinson is averaging 17.8 fantasy points over the first two games of the season. The Bengals allowed 170 yards rushing to the Patriots in Week 1 and 149 yards to the Chiefs in Week 2. Both primary RB’s went for 90+ rushing yards and at least 3 receptions. Because of the small slate, I feel comfortable pairing Robinson with Daniels when needed.

ZACK MOSS ($5600 DK) – The Bengals running game hasn’t been pretty. But the Commanders, although terrible at the pass, have allowed points to RB’s this season. So far, backs have gone for 190 yards rushing and 31 fantasy points in two games against the Commanders. At some point, the Bengals have to become two-dimensional and I think they’ll try to flex that tonight.

AUSTIN EKELER/CHASE BROWN/D’ERNEST JOHNSON – All backup RB’s with little value based on prices to the starting RB’s and low volume of snaps.

Tier 1: TRAVIS ETIENNE JR, BRIAN ROBINSON

Tier 2: JAMES COOK, ZACK MOSS

Wide Receiver

JA’MARR CHASE ($7500 DK) & TEE HIGGINS ($5900 DK) – Chase is clearly the #1 option available tonight and the only real receiver that can break the slate. He also gets the dream matchup of the Commanders pass D. The two #1 WR’s they faced, Mike Evans and Malik Nabers, have averaged 25.9 fantasy points. And the Commanders as a whole unit have allowed 6 receiving TD’s in two games. Higgins is in play too in case Washington looks to double Chase.

ANDREI IOSIVAS ($4300 DK) – Iosavis will revert back to a 3rd pass catcher with the return of Tee Higgins. But he did play 49 snaps against the Chiefs which was 14 higher than the next WR in Trenton Irwin. So he looks to be clearly the 3rd guy, though I expect Jermain Burton to assume that role down the road. As WR #3 against a bad pass D, he’s in play tonight.

KEON COLEMAN ($4800 DK) – The Jaguars have struggled with outside receivers. The Dolphins primary catchers went for 239 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1. And Jerry Jeudy, of all people, had 73 yards receiving on 5 catches in Week 2. After being shutout last week, I look for Coleman to get heavily involved and win his matchup against Ronald Darby (40th in PFF coverage ranking) or Motaric Brown (72nd in PFF coverage ranking).

KHALIL SHAKIR ($5500 DK) – The Jags look to be without their nickel DB tonight which should open up some big holes for Shakir. And the Jags rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in pass coverage. Shakir has been Allen’s favorite target so far garnering 8 catches in two games.

BRIAN THOMAS JR ($4900 DK) – Bills CB Christian Benford has been excellent in 2024 as he ranks as the 8th best DB according to PFF. He’ll likely see more of Christian Kirk thus opening up chances for rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. The former LSU standout has been Lawrence’s favorite target to date, bringing in his only passing touchdown last week against Cleveland. I lean to Thomas over Kirk based on matchups.

TERRY MCLAURIN($5700 DK) & NOAH BROWN ($3300 DK)– The McClaurin breakout game is coming. He has only 39 yards on the season but has been targeted 12 times in two games. He is the only real receiving threat for the Commanders and will draw a tough matchup against Cam Taylor-Britt. I still will play McClaurin but I like Noah Brown better in this spot. Brown found some rapport with Daniels catching three balls for 56 yards last week against NYG.

Of note, GABE DAVIS ($4200 DK) is in revenge mode tonight against his former team. He’s worth noting as they may try to force the ball into Davis at times.

Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase

Tier 2: Brian Thomas Jr, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Bargain Shopping (Cheap options): Noah Brown, Gabe Davis, Andre Iosavis

Tight End

With Engram out for the Jags, there is only one TE priced above $4K. This is a spot where you can find value. I won’t spend time writing this area up as the passing game angles are still relevant here. Brenton Strange is my favorite play as he wound up with 7 targets last week with Engram out.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Mike Gesicki, Brenton Strange

Tier 2: Zach Ertz

DEFENSE

The Bills are facing an offense with big issues on the O Line. We saw what their pass rush did to Tua last week and it could be similar tonight against the Jags. The biggest concern will be keeping Trevor Lawrence in the pocket. If so, I see 3+ sacks for the Bills. The Bengals are the other team to consider as we’re seeing rookie QB’s struggle adapting to the NFL game. Daniels wasn’t able to find the endzone in 6 redzone trips last week and is reluctant to put the ball in tight windows. The Bengals could give him different looks that opens up the potential for turnovers tonight.

Tier 1: Buffalo Bills 

Tier 2: Cincinnati Bengals

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns. I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Allen or Travis Etienne in the early game. I’ll look at Ja’Marr Chase and Jayden Daniels as my wo primary MVPs in the night game.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.

Best Rules for the slate (JAX at BUFF):

• Play Josh Allen. I’ll primarily have him at MVP and CPT since we can find salary relief in other places.
• Both RB’s are in play and I’m comfortable pairing Cook with Allen in Showdowns.
• I will be heavy on Bills Defense tonight as they should rack up the sacks and create turnovers.
• I’m a full fade on Trevor Lawrence but will play some of his pass catchers.
• My order of preference at WR is Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas, Khalil Shakir, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis.
• Both TE’s are in play. But only pair with one other pass catcher, or none, from his team. Strange could be run naked as the only Jags pass catcher if you want to get different.
• Both kickers are in play but I favor Tyler Bass of Buffalo.

Best Rules for the slate (WASH at CIN):

• Play Ja’Marr Chase in most (if not all) lineups. I’ll primarily have him at MVP and CPT since we can find salary relief in other places. Washington has allowed the most points to #1 WR’s and is the worst pass defense in football.
• I prefer Jayden Daniels to Joe Burrow based on rushing potential. But I see a strategy where I can use both QB’s.
• Consider Noah Brown as WR #2 on Washington. Good salary relief too.
• Mike Gesicki is my preferred #3 pass catcher on Cincy. Could rise to #2 if he gets redzone targets.
• Brian Robinson will have a good game as Cincy has been charitable to #1 RB’s.
• Cincy D is in play.
• Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups. With Washington’s struggles in the redzone, I like Austin Seibert better (7 FG’s made last week).
• Zack Moss got 80% of the snaps and 76% of the touches last week. Until they get confidence in Brown, Moss looks to be the only viable option in the Cincy backfield.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 2 was just very good for us in the betting market. I went 12-4 in several pools, and more importantly won our Win Daily pool on the Sleeper App with an 11-5 mark. The position of fading the market and not buying the hype worked well. On the Win Daily page, I was just 2-2 and that puts us at 4-4 overall. But that’s solid as we’re going to grow the early season malaise into a winning way. So follow and hop on the train when you see fit. As I’m confident we’re on our way to another winning season here in the NFL betting market. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 3 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 4-4)

HOUSTON TEXANS -1 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I highlighted this last year, that I like to fade teams coming off a win versus the 49ers. But 2024 ended up being different as teams coming off a win versus the 49ers were 4-0 SU the following week (49ers had 5 losses but their 5th was in week 18 to Rams).

However, I’m back on the bandwagon of fading teams off a 49ers win and it starts this week with the Vikings. Minnesota has looked good in 2024 by beating the Giants soundly then following that up with a big win against SF. But the jury is still out as they have a mediocre QB in Sam Darnold and a bunch of misfit toys on offense with WR Justin Jefferson the only real threat for defenses. Minnesota will be once again without WR Jordan Addison as he’ll this week with an ankle injury.

The real key is the Vikings pass D which has been bad the past few years. The Texans strong point is their pass O, with CJ Stroud passing to a triumvirate of quality receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On the other side, the Texans are bringing a fierce pass rush and that will help befuddle Darnold and create turnover opportunities.

The Texans didn’t look great on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, but they won. Which is the sign of a good team. They’ll take those lessons learned and apply them into a big road win in Minnesota this weekend.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 vs CHICAGO BEARS

In a battle of promising young QB’s, I’m going with Anthony Richardson and the Colts today. Indianapolis lost a tough game at Green Bay last week. That was off the heels of a narrow loss to division rivals the Houston Texans. The big reason why they’re sitting at 0-2 instead of 2-0 is turnovers, as Richardson has four interceptions to his name already this season. And each one has been unforced and unfortunate. But the good news for the Colts is their offensive line has played stellar as they are #1 in pass blocking and run blocking this season. So there is room for yards to be had even against a tough Bears D.

On the other side, we have a team in the Bears that are 31st in the league in total offense. Chicago QB Caleb Williams is running for his life as he’s been sacked nine times in the first two games. It’s evident that teams are willing to blitz Williams and force him to flush out of the pocket. I expect the Colts will do the same today and make life hard, once again, on the 2024 #1 pick.

TENNESSEE TITANS -2 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Will Levis experience has not been fun for HC Brian Callahan. Two inexplicable turnovers in the first 2 weeks have cost the Titans dearly as they lost nailbiters to the Jets and Bears. The good news is the defense has been outstanding, holding teams to 206.5 yds/game. That ranks 1st in the league.

We know the issue in Tennessee is the QB play, especially the turnovers. In Green Bay, they have their own QB issues. Former Titan QB Malik Willis looks inline to get another start today. The Packers limited Willis to just 14 pass attempts last week as they chose to try to win a game like the 1960’s teams, with the running game. Green Bay ended up running the ball 53 times last week for a 79/21% run to pass ratio. That type of gameplan won’t work today in Tennessee as the Titans allow just 92.5 yards/game on the ground in 2024.

We need to keep an eye on the Jordan Love situation because if he is able to play this line will shift. And it could impact whether or not I play the Titans.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Close your eyes and say a prayer for me. As I’m betting the Carolina Panthers today when they travel to Vegas to take the field against the Raiders. I’m playing numbers here, as what we’ve seen on the gridiron so far could now have me logically back the Panthers. First, the switch to QB Andy Dalton should boost some life into an inept offense. Dalton has been solid wherever he’s gone and is a serviceable NFL QB. Secondly, the Raiders are traveling back west after one week on the east coast. And that week was productive as they pulled off a shocking upset of the Baltimore Ravens. However, the back-and-forth travel, plus the exuberance of a huge win will play against them today.

The other piece of good news is that these teams are much closer in DVOA than the spread suggests. The Raiders are 25th in defensive DVOA while the Panthers are 24th. Offensively, Carolina ranks 32nd, but Las Vegas isn’t far behind at 28th. In yardage, the Raiders allow 349.5 yds/game (24th) while the Panthers allow 364 yds/game (25th).

Lastly, the books are showing just 8% of the tickets and 7% of the bets coming in on Carolina. Yet, they’ve only moved this line by 0.5 points since it opened. Something seems fishy in Vegas as this shows signs of potential smart money coming in if the line is moved to 6.5 or 7. It’s a cat and mouse game at the windows that I’m sure bettors, and odds makers, are keeping an eye on. But the volume coming in now doesn’t align with line movement. Close my eyes and say a prayer, I’m playing the numbers and zagging against the public with the Carolina Panthers (note it’s worked the first two weeks).

SURVIVOR PICK

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 2 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And how lucky am I to be able to breakdown the showdown slate of the team I’m most familiar with as the Falcons travel to Philly to take on the Eagles in primetime. In a scheduling oddity, this will be the 3rd season in a row that Kirk Cousins plays in Philadelphia on MNF in Week 2. Simply put, even without AJ Brown, I expect there to be points scored tonight down on Pattison Ave. So let’s dig in and see what areas to exploit and how to win some money in the DFS Showdown market. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

ATLANTA FALCONS

Running Back

We’ve all been waiting for over a year for the Falcons to unleash the beast. After drafting RB Bijan Robinson in the top 10 of the 2023 draft, he was criminally underused in Arthur Smith’s system last year. And while he didn’t explode in Week 1 of this year, Bijan did get 23 touches in his first game under the Raheem Morris regime. Even better news was that Robinson received 89% of the snaps as backup RB Tyler Allgier saw just 3 touches and 18% snap count.

The better news is that the Falcons face an Eagles defense that looked similar to last season’s version against the run, POUROUS! In 2023, the Eagles ended up 22nd in rush defense DVOA. But they allowed the 10th lowest yards on the ground. Why the gap in numbers? That was because they were historically bad against the pass and teams ran the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the league against Philly. So, it masked their real inefficiency upfront.

This season, the Eagles invested in the defensive backfield to improve the horrendous pass D. And while that looked better in Week 1, it showed the gaps upfront as Green Bay ran for 163 yards on just 21 carries. PFF ranked the Eagles 28th run defense and they earned the 30th ranked rush defense in DVOA. For those reasons, as well as a new LB corps, I expect the Eagles to struggle against the run early in the season.

Bijan could be in line for a career high number tonight as long as the Falcons commit and stick with the run.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: None

Wide Receiver

There are a few concerning signs with the Falcons passing offense coming out of Week 1. The first is the overall health of newly signed QB Kirk Cousins. He looked immobile and was inaccurate in his return from a torn Achilles tendon. The other concern was the offensive line, as it was attacked and exposed by an aggressive Steeler defensive front. The Falcons OL was assigned a pass block grading of 44.3 for that game, which was 2nd worst in the league.

As highlighted in the RB section above, the Eagles invested heavily in their defensive backfield in the offseason. They resigned CB Avonte Maddox and used two early draft picks on highly regarded DB’s Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Birds are also banking on CB Isiah Rogers making an impact, Rogers was suspended for the entire 2023 season for gambling but was ranked as a top 20 defensive back the season prior.

Last week, the Packers were able to get big chunks in the passing game due to some defensive breakdowns. This happened mainly with their inside WR’s, namely Jayden Reed. Darius Slay was solid in coverage grading out as the 19th best DB in Week 1. But Avonte Maddox was attacked and exposed as he ended up 89th in DB ranking according to PFF. I’ll look to get Atlanta’s slot receivers involved tonight and play Drake London much lighter than most due to his matchup with Slay.

Of note, Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in targets (6) and had 27.3% of the overall targets to pass catchers.

Tier 1: Darnell Mooney

Tier 2: Drake London, Ray-Ray McCloud

Punts:

Tight End

The Eagles historically stink against TE’s. Green Bay did not expose that in Week 1 as they got just two catches out of their Tight Ends against Philly. That was primarily because of the Eagles new LB Zack Baun who had 15 tackles and ranked in the top 10 in coverage in Week 1. However, the Eagles other LB, Nakobe Dean, ranked 74th out of 75 LB’s overall. So there’s opportunity to be had for Kyle Pitts tonight if the Falcons are able to use motion and get the right matchups. For that reason, I think Pitts is the best receiver to use tonight for Atlanta.

Tier 1: Kyle Pitts

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Running Back

There’s nobody in the league having a harder start to the season than NY Giants General Manager Joe Schoen. While giving QB Daniel Jones the bag looks to be a critical error. His handling of the Saquon Barkley situation could haunt this team for years to come. Barkley debuted in Eagles green in Week 1 and put up a career game, totaling 132 yards and scoring three touchdowns against the Packers. He also saw 80% of the snaps and collected 93% of the touches. Which just signifies he’s the featured back in Philly and has no worries about sharing the ball.

He’ll have a tougher job tonight as Atlanta employs a strong defensive front. While they allowed 137 rushing yards to the Steelers in Week 1, it was on 41 carries. Because of that, they rated #8 in run defense per PFF and #6 in rushing DVOA. This aligns well to last season as they ended 11th in rush defense DVOA and allowed just 4.0 yds/carry which was 9th best in the NFL.

I still like Saquon tonight as the Eagles O Line is a top 5 unit in football. They ranked 5th best in run blocking in Week 1 and will continue to get better as C Cam Jurgens eases into the role of taking over for legendary Jason Kelce.

Tier 1: Saquon Barkley 

Tier 2: Will Shipley (Punt Play)

Wide Receiver

The big news for tonight is staring WR AJ Brown has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. This opens up potential for several Eagles WR’s to be the breakout player in tonight’s showdown. To me, this is the spot you have to win tonight in order to hit big in GPP’s.

If there was one major concern for the Falcons, it was the ability to pressure the QB. Atlanta has just 42 sacks in 2023 which was 22nd in the NFL. By drafting QB Michael Penix in the top 10, they passed on premium edge rush talent. Which forced them to make a move in the trade market. And they did so by making a deal with NE to acquire Matthew Judon. While Judon played well, it didn’t drastically change the issue. Atlanta ranked 31st in pass rush rate in Week 1.

On the other end, is a very good Eagles O Line. As we discussed above, this is top 5 unit in the league. Besides their propensity to open holes for RB’s, they also pass block very well as this unit ranked 2nd best in that category in Week 1.

So this looks like the biggest mismatch on paper. Meaning QB Jalen Hurts should have plenty of time to make good decisions and find the open receiver in Kellen Moore’s offense.

Jahan Dotson didn’t catch a ball in Week 1 but that will change this week. He’s had 9 days between games to further digest the offense. I’m looking for him to have a HUGE night in AJ Brown’s absence. New out of Philly is that rookie WR Johnny Wilson will get snaps tonight as WR3. Wilson is a big bodied receiver from FSU. His biggest flaw is he has big drops in big moments. But he could be a target in shorter fields, especially the endzone, so consider him as a cheap play tonight.

One longshot to also consider is WR Britian Covey. He returns kicks for the Eagles and keeps making the roster as a 5th WR. They like his speed, former track star, and could use him in some WR screen and jet sweep scenarios. Also, Wilson has a questionable tag so if he’s out this moves Covey into serious play.

Tier 1: DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson

Tier 2: Johnny Wilson

Tight End

Dallas Goedert should be used more tonight as the Eagles will need to adjust their gameplan for life without Brown. Atlanta uses a 3-4 defense with two primary coverage LB’s in Kaden Elliss and Troy Anderson. Elliss graded the best but was ranked just 30th among LB’s in Week 1. Additionally, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was targeted four times in Week 1 and caught each one.

Tier 1: Dallas Goedert

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts. I’m passing on Kirk Cousins at the MVP position because of his lack of mobility versus an aggressive Eagles pass rush. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we saw Nico Collins as the best Captain and he was in the top 3 in salary. So I can see a scenario where we go after a top RB, or Hurts, as our CPT. One other option is to take an Eagles WR, instead of Barkley, at CPT as either Smith or Dotson could be the big winner tonight with the Falcons struggling in Week 1 in creating pass rush and thus exposing their DBs in coverage.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley

FDMVP Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith

FDMVP Tier 3: Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts

DK CPT Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson (salary relief)

DK CPT Tier 3: DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney

DK CPT Punt: Ray-Ray McCloud, Dallas Goedert

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Jalen Hurts
• Bijan Robinson
• Saquon Barkley
• DeVonta Smith
• Kyle Pitts
• Jahan Dotson
• Darnell Mooney
• Ray-Ray McCloud

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Kirk Cousins
• Drake London
• Jake Elliott
• Dallas Goedert
• Younghoe Koo
• Eagles D
• Johnny Wilson

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Will Shipley
• Falcons D
• Britian Covey

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one stud RB, likely both. I like Bijan to have the best overall game but that doesn’t mean he has to be your CPT if someone of lesser value pops and provides room to roster Barkley and Bijan and Hurts/Smith.
• PLAY JAHAN DOTSON. Like last MNF, when Jordan Mason popped for CMAC, we have an opportunity to hit big on someone $4K or less.
• Play the Falcons second and third WR’s. Eagles struggled covering the slot and weak side in Week 1.
• Only play 1 QB, or none. I prefer Hurts and think he’ll have a solid game.
• Be careful of Drake London because of the potential for Slay to follow him around the field. He only got 3 targets in Week 1.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is 45.5 and the weather is calm. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Bijan Robinson over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 BET365) / Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs (+155 DK)

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