The four best teams in the NFL remain, and only two will survive after today’s games in the Conference Championship round. We’re coming off a heater, going 3-0-1 last week with game bets. The Commanders and Bills both came through as outright winners despite being underdogs. And the two finalists from 2023, the Eagles and Chiefs, came through as home favorites to potentially setup a rematch from a classic Super Bowl two years ago.

Looking at today we have been gifted with an inter-division matchup meaning teams will see each other for a 3rd time this season in Washington and Philadelphia. Out west, we get another classic matchup of Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. Those two have met three times in the playoffs with the Chiefs winning each. But the Bills have gotten closer each time, losing by 14, by 6 and by 3 points last year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-4-1 game bets / 6-4 prop bets)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3:00 PM EST)

I’ll start this by saying I am an Eagles fan. Which you probably all know by now. So I’m trying my best to pick with my head not my heart here.

With that being said, I respect the heck out of Washington (much like LA last week). They pose so many challenges especially at the QB position. Jayden Daniels is putting up the best rookie season for a QB that we’ve ever seen. And they’re on a heater right now, winning seven straight coming into today’s NFC Championship Game. On defense, while the Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA, they created five turnovers last week in Detroit. They are opportunistic and aggressive, often creating havoc in the backfield at the expense of coverage in the secondary. Dan Quinn knows he’s undersized and undermanned on the D-Line, but he has still found ways to create pressure and impact games defensively.

However, the Commanders magic must run out at some point. The only position on the field today that they can claim to be better is the QB. And while that’s the most important of all positions, football is a team sport. Jalen Hurts had a great week of practice, and his mobility looked good. As long as he’s a threat in the run game, Washington will have fits trying to stop this Eagles offense.

In their last meeting, the Eagles scored touchdowns on three of their first four drives. And several of those were with backup QB Kenny Pickett. It wasn’t until the Commanders stacked the box that they limited the Eagles running game and held them to four FG’s the rest of the way. Pickett wasn’t a threat to run or throw deep. Hurts is both of those. His health and ability to play his game is everything today for the Eagles offense.

Then there’s the fact that Washington is playing their 4th straight road games. Teams in this situation since 2000, with a fourth straight road game in the playoffs, are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Washington is also missing two key players in OL Sam Cosmi and DT Daron Payne. And I haven’t even mentioned the Eagles defense yet. They are ranked #1 overall and #2 in points allowed. This unit has not allowed more than 23 points in a game at home all season. And they allow just 16 points per game at the Linc.

If the Eagles can’t contain Daniels and Hurts can’t be a factor in the running game, then yes, the Commanders can and likely will pull this one out. But the talent advantage all over the field tells me those will be two very tall mountains to climb for Washington. The Eagles will wear down the Commanders and we’ll see Saquon break one late to seal the game. I think it’ll play much like their matchup back in Week 11 when the Eagles won 26-18. The Commanders had the lead in that game heading into the 4th Q. But the Eagles physicality broke through as they recorded three rushing TD’s in the final frame enroute to the victory.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS (6:30 PM EST)

This game should be fantastic similar to last week’s great battle between Buffalo and Baltimore. There are so many storylines including the Chiefs quest to three-peat and the Bills trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years.

The Chiefs are 16-2 but have shown some vulnerability all season, winning an unprecedented 11 one-score games. In fact, Kansas City was 11-0 in games decided by 8 points or less. The mastery of Mahomes and Reid factored into that mark, but so did some luck like having Isaiah Likely’s toe just step out of bounds or seeing a chip shot FG by Denver get blocked as time expired. The fact is, this team knows how to win. And that’s even more so true in Kansas City where they are 10-0 this season.

The Bills on the other hand are the only team to beat Mahomes this season as the Chiefs only other loss came in Week 18 with Carson Wentz under center. Josh Allen is 4-4 in his career against the Chiefs and has had success in all those starts. The problem is he’s 0-3 in the playoffs, including 0-2 in Arrowhead.

As much as I think the Bills have the recipe and formula to beat the Chiefs. I tend to ask myself, and everyone else this. Who do you think wins if this is a close game? We’ve already laid out the remarkable number the Chiefs have in those situations. The Bills are just 5-3 in one-score games this year. It would take a significant call or some stroke of luck for the Bills to win this one. Which is something we can root for but I can’t let my wallet bet on. Until someone proves they can do it, I’m backing the Chiefs to march onto New Orleans for the Super Bowl.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The best weekend of football is here as we have the eight remaining teams left in the NFL Playoffs. The stories are endless as we have just two QB’s who have won a Super Bowl. But of the remaining six, there are MVP’s, ROY’s and loads of talent. Which shows each team has a chance to get to New Orleans and take claim to the throne as the NFL’s best team. The Wild Card Weekend was a roller coaster for us. The game bets went 2-4 but the prop bets went 4-2. The only reason I ended up on the plus side was due to a 5x bet on the Eagles. Some tailgate waters helped fuel that bravado. But we do need a better showing in the game bets this week to push us onto the plus side of the equation.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-4 game bets / 4-2 prop bets)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

The numbers are astounding for the Chiefs during the Divisional Round in the Patrick Mahomes era. They are 6-0 in this weekend’s games under their star QB. Mahomes has averaged over 300 yards per game and thrown for 16 TD’s to 0 INT’s in this round. And they are looking for their 7th straight trip to the conference championship which trails just the Patriots who went to eight straight during the 2011-2018 stretch. On the other side, Houston is 0-5 in Divisional Round games as they have never advanced to a Championship game. Additionally, they are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. Both marks make them standalone as they are the only team to never make a Championship game and never win a road playoff game.

And while I like to fade the public and zag when others zig, I saw how the Chiefs finished the regular season and know what type of animal they are in the playoffs. It’s almost like they slow-played their hand for 14 weeks and then started ramping up for the real season. Throwing out the Week 18 game when they rested the starters, the Chiefs ended the regular season 3-0 and covering all three of those games against the spread. They won those games by a collective score of 77 to 36.

And then there’s the Texans. I can’t erase the sights of CJ Stroud trying to throw the game away against LA only to see his defense bail them out. Houston won because they kept LA out of the endzone early (when the game was on the hinges) and then made them one-dimensional which created the turnover opportunities. They won’t get four INT’s today and they likely won’t get a defensive touchdown. For them to win, CJ Stroud will have to be great. And I’m just not sure he can be great enough to do that. The Texans were ranked 26th in offensive DVOA and was the second lowest scoring team of any playoff team at 21.9 ppg.

PROP BETS:

Nico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). This is a big number. But if you believe in my game script, the Texans will be down early and often. Setting up lots of throwing opportunities for Stroud to Collins. KC is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s and are top 12 against all other pass catchers.

Xavier Worthy over 4.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). In Worthy’s last three games, he’s ran for 50 yards on 8 carries. He’s had multiple carries in all three of those games. At this line, we likely just need one carry to get this number. But if we get two, he’s going well over this line. In the first matchup, Houston played 40% Cover 1. Something close to that will give HC Andy Reid the looks he likes to setup a jet sweep and block the outside zone coverage.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +9 at DETROIT LIONS

I love the Lions and still project them to be the NFC Champions this year. But this Washington Commanders team is playing with house money while Detroit has the most amount of pressure they’ve ever had. That, in and of itself, is a daunting task for a team that’s not used to playing the favorites role.

And that’s really part of this story. The Commanders played aggressive last weekend. Like they had nothing to lose. HC Dan Quinn went for it on 4th down on five occasions, converting three of those. And based on his aggression, the Commanders never punted last week. They either scored, or turned it over on downs, in their seven possessions. I expect more of the same from Quinn this week as he knows he has to score points to keep up with Detroit.

For the Lions, they welcome back David Montgomery which is a great sign. He is one of the leaders on their team and will surely give them a boost. But before last season, the Lions had not won a playoff game since 1991. In fact, they have just three playoff wins in franchise history in the modern Super Bowl era. While that’s not saying they can’t win today, it just highlights the extreme pressure this team has as it is the best one in franchise history.

I expect the Commanders to hang around long enough to give the Lions a scare. Tampa did so last year in this round as they were tied with Detroit heading into the 4th quarter.

PROP BETS:

Brian Robinson over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Commanders RB’s had 7 receptions last week against Tampa. And Robinson led the way with four. However, this week, Austin Ekeler has a reception prop of double Robinson’s. I’ll take the back that sees the field more to get over his reception prop. Detroit is 29th in the league in DVOA against RB’s in the passing game. If they decide to play the blitz heavy defense they did against Minnesota, Daniels will look for the quick check downs and not fall to the fate that Sam Darnold did.

Jameson Williams over 55.5 yards (-110 DK). The Lions can attack the Commanders defense any way they want. That’s primarily because of all the weapons at Detroit’s disposal. But it’s also because Washington is not very good defensively, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. With Lattimore back, I expect the Lions to exploit CB Mike Sainristill who allows 11.8 yards per catch (91st among DB’s) and has 13 missed tackles (ranked 205th among DB’s).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs LA RAMS

The Eagles were significantly better than the Rams in their first outing in LA. Philadelphia won that game by a score of 37-20. They dominated the game offensively and defensively. And despite what you saw from LA last week, they are not that much different than the first outing. The defensive pressure has improved but at the sake of the offense, which scored 20 or less in three of it’s last four games.

Then there’s the eye test. LA looked great against Minnesota. But we just saw the team that allowed just 9 points to the Vikings get completely throttled by the Commanders on Saturday. Yes, the Vikings were absolute frauds. While the Rams dominated the Vikings, that game showed more about Minnesota than it did LA.

The Eagles are better in every phase. Barring a crazy weather game or uncommon turnovers, the Eagles should dominate this game upfront which is where playoff games are won. While the weather is calling for snow, that should actually favor Philly as the offensive line should be able to plow over the smaller Rams defensive front opening up big holes for #26.

PROP BETS: TBD

BUFFALO BILLS +1.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is the hardest game of the weekend to handicap. These are two of the top teams in the NFL, and one will have to plan for Cancun weeks ahead of their preferred time. According to DVOA, these are the top 2 offenses in the NFL with Baltimore having a slight edge. Defensively, both teams rank in the top 11. Looking at the standings, both teams finished with a +157 point differential, which was the highest in the AFC and 3rd most in the NFL.

But in this matchup of even teams, I’m riding with the home boys in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a few things that I believe are motivational edges. First, they were embarrassed by the Ravens in prime time back in Week 4 losing by 25 points. Derrick Henry ran wild, accumulating 199 rushing yards on just 24 carries. But one thing to note is the Bills were without three starting defensive players in that game. Then there’s the weather factor as there will be snow, and it will be cold. The forecast is calling for single digit temperatures which Buffalo is well equipped for. The last playoff game that Baltimore played in Buffalo was also cold, and the Ravens scored just 3 points as they couldn’t adjust to the frigidness of western NY.

I also factor in Buffalo is 9-0 at home this year, with only 3 of those games being one score affairs. This team is built for this weather and they embrace their home field advantage. Lastly, the Ravens look like they will be without WR Zay Flowers. The lack of Flowers speed can allow Buffalo to creep the safeties up and help scheme against the powerful Ravens running game.

Baltimore is a great team but I’ve seen a few scattered results from them where they get away from who they are. I can easily see them winning but also realize they have some skeletons in their playoff closet too which could come creeping out again today.

PROP BETS: TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The day is finally here as 14 teams enter the NFL Playoffs with all the same goal, lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy come the night of February 9th. And what better way to celebrate the playoffs as a fan then have a little extra skin in the game. Which is exactly why we’re here. After a “mid” regular season where I finished 48-47-1, we’re looking to the end the year with a bang (similar to how we’ve nailed the College Football Bowl Season). So join us on this upcoming journey and tail, fade or pass. But either way get ready for the ride because these next 5 weeks will bring us some of the best football we’ve seen all year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS WILD CARD WEEKEND (2024 SEASON RECORD: 48-47-1, game bets only)

LA CHARGERS -2.5 at HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

If you’ve read my articles this year, then you understand that I like to fade heavy public interest in games. Typically, that is a winning strategy but this year it didn’t hit as often as we’d expect. So I adjusted late and bought into some of the games where there was heavy square money. The point of all that is what we’re seeing today in the Chargers and Texans game. Los Angeles is being picked to win by every NFL analyst whether on TV or the internet. And the window in Vegas is backing that as 72% of the bets and 71% of the money is on Jim Harbaugh’s team. And honestly, this is usually a zig when they zag spot for me, but today it’s not.

I just simply can’t ignore the Texans inefficiencies for most, if not all, of the season. Houston is the worst offensive team in the playoffs, and it’s not close. They rank 25th overall in offensive DVOA which puts them in the likes of New Orleans, Dallas, New York Giants and the Chicago Bears. Most of those teams will be picking in the top 10 of the draft and weren’t close to playoff football. From a pure statistics perspective, it wasn’t great either as the Texans racked up just 319.7 total yards per game which is good for 13th out of the 14 playoff teams (Pittsburgh only team worse at 319.4). Same goes with points scored as they averaged 21.9 points per game, also ranking 13th of the 14 playoff teams (LA Rams came in at 21.6 ppg).

A lot of the offensive issues were due to the injuries and an inconsistent QB and offensive line. Upfront, Houston ranked 19th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking. Because of that, the Texans allowed 54 sacks which was the third most in the NFL. At the helm, QB CJ Stroud took a step backwards in his sophomore season as he threw just 20 TD’s with 12 INT’s. The latter stat was tied for the 4th most in the NFL. The more concerning part is that Stroud was ranked 25th in QBR, with three rookie QB’s ranked higher as well as his fellow sophomore Bryce Young. A lot of that was due to teams bringing pressure against Stroud. The Texans were blitzed the 3rd most in the league but gave up the highest pressure rate at 27.2%.

While this has been all about the Texans, the point here is the Chargers have a much better offense than Houston. LA ended up ranking 13th in offensive DVOA and 11th in points per game. Their QB, Justin Herbert, threw just three interceptions all season as the Chargers turned the ball over just 9 times this season, 2nd fewest in the league. While Houston’s defense will keep them in the game, I trust Herbert and his corps of receivers much more. I think this is the day we see the Chargers actually win a close playoff game and set their sights to next week and a possible matchup with KC.

NOTE: I’m buying a half point here which brings the juice up to -125. Most books have not moved off the key number of 3.

PROP BETS: John Metchie III over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). The Chargers rank 30th in DVOA against WR2’s. By default, Metchie has been playing WR2 for Houston.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

We’re back to our regularly scheduled program. I’m backing a team the public has totally dismissed in the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ve talked prior about how good of an underdog Mike Tomlin is. In fact, he’s the second-best coach ATS (active) as an underdog hitting at a 64% rate with a 62-35-3 record. And if we follow this rivalry close enough, we know these games are always tight as nine of the last ten have been one score games (the last game is the only one that wasn’t but a Russel Wilson fumble at goal line was likely the reason why).

Then there’s the Lamar in the playoffs factor as the Ravens QB is just 2-4 in the playoffs. This includes a 1-3 record at home. None of those games were with the sledgehammer he has in the backfield this year in Derrick Henry. But there’s still a little playoff uncertainty from the two-time NFL MVP.

In the end, this is a divisional game that is between two hated rivals. No rah-rah speeches are needed and they have enough motivation just seeing the other teams jersey to be ready for this one. There is split action at the windows, with 49% of the money on Pittsburgh and 51% on Baltimore. There are some major trends that do point to Baltimore (home favorites of 9+ in Wild Card Round are 10-1 ATS in last 20 years) but I’m sticking with my intuition here and banking on the Steelers to have enough offense to make this one scary for the Ravens.

PROP BETS: George Pickens over 56.5 yards (-110 DK). The Ravens allow the most yards to WR1 on the season. And it’s by a wide margin. Pickens has been trash but he’s also into the trash talk. Look for the Steelers to get him going early and let the talking fuel his game. Pittsburgh’s only chance to win is to get Pickens involved early and often.

BUFFALO BILLS -9 vs DENVER BRONCOS

This game is very intriguing on many levels. First off, I saw a pre-draft interview recently where HC Sean Payton said Bo Nix had similar qualities to the person he’s opposing today, Josh Allen. It was high praise considering Josh Allen is one of the best players in the NFL. But Nix hasn’t disappointed his coach’s claims as he had a stellar rookie season throwing for over 3700 yards and registering 29 passing TD’s to just 12 interceptions. And the last number is the key as he threw 9 of those 12 INT’s in just four games. And ever since he started to get acclimated to the league, Denver has been on a tear as they’ve won five of their last seven games. The only two losses were in OT to the Bengals and by one score to the Chargers.

The Bills on the other hand have absorbed playoff failure time and time again. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 5-5 in the playoffs. And it hasn’t been his fault, necessarily, on why they find ways to lose. Allen has a 21 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. But it’s always something with Sean McDermott’s team. Last season was setup perfectly for them, bringing the Chiefs to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. However, they still found a way to lose. Fitting the narrative that the weight of the playoffs often consumes this team.

My biggest concern this year is the lack of weapons at Allen’s disposal. However, the good news is the Broncos can be exposed in the passing game without using the WR’s. Denver allows the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s and the 2nd most receiving TD’s. And DVOA has them as the 31st ranked pass D against backs. So watchout for a big game from James Cook. I also think this is a good spot for Allen. Denver thrives on creating pressure at the line and he’s one of the best at alluding it.

Additionally, the way to attack Buffalo is on the ground as the air as they rank 28th versus WR1 and 29th versus WR2 according to DVOA. But I just can’t trust a rookie QB enough to put my money behind them in a game where he will be relied on to make big plays. Denver will keep it close for a while but Buffalo pulls away late and covers the number.

PROP BETS: James Cook over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Broncos are so good against the pass on the perimeter that you have to check down to your outlets. Plus they love to send pressure, sending the blitz 29.5% (7th in league), that we could see two RB packages that allow one of them to get free in coverage.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES –5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

First off, this may come with some bias. So tread carefully and tail if you believe what I’m saying. But if you’ve followed me this year, I’m very reluctant to bet on the Birds. And when I do, I’ve been on the right side.

To me, the difference in this game is the Eagles defense. They are the #1 ranked unit as far as yards per game and the second-best team in points per game. The Packers are without their one receiver that can stretch defenses, as Christian Watson is out with an injured knee. This will allow the Eagles to stack the box and try to control the Packers running game. Which is the strength of this team.

We’ve also know the Packers are just 1-5 against NFC playoff teams with their lone win against the Rams. And now they’re dealing with a potential injury to their best defender (outside of Xavier McKinney) in Quay Walker. While Green Bay was the surprise team last year, I don’t see them having enough bullets in the chamber to threaten the Eagles D.

PROP BETS: Saquon Barkley over 20.5 rushing attempts (-110 DK). Jalen Hurts is returning from a concussion so I expect most of the RPO’s to go to Barkley. The other thing is, I see the Eagles having a lead and trying to bleed the clock by running Saquon.

TAMPA BAY BUCS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

We have another matchup of teams that met way back in Week 1. Whatever we can glean from that game, is likely moot for this one. Both teams are much different then they were in September. Jayden Daniels ended up with the 4th best QBR in the NFL. But his WBR of 35.7 in Week 1 was his 3rd worst total of the season. His progress is a huge reason why Washington is seeded 6th and finished with 12 wins. As for Tampa, they look different than what they were in September mainly because of their offensive adjustments. After losing Chris Godwin, this team went into young mode and focused on growing their young WR corps, like Jalen McMillan, and shifting their primary RB from Rachaad White to rookie Bucky Irving.

The reason why I lean towards the home team is because of Todd Bowles ability to confuse and frustrate QB’s. He has made a living on that and will try to show young Jayden Daniels a litany of looks he hasn’t yet seen. And Washington thrived against lesser competition but was just 1-4 against playoff teams, including 0-3 on the road.

PROP BETS: Bucky Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). Washington was 26th in run defense DVOA. And they allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. If they decide to stack the box, Baker will shred them. I think they play an aggressive D that tries to create havoc and will leave holes for big plays with Irving.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 at LA RAMS

I’m riding on the Vikings in this one as they were the better team all season. The Lions exposed QB Sam Darnold last week as he played his worst game of the season while facing intense pressure all evening. But the throws that he missed can be coached up. And the Vikings were in the game until midway through the 3rd quarter. While I do think Minnesota is slightly overrated, they are a better offensive team and defensive team than the Rams.

DEFENSE:

Minnesota: 5th in ppg (19.5),16th in yards per game (335.4), 2nd in DVOA

LA Rams: 17th in ppg (22.7), 26th in yards per game (353.1), 26th in DVOA

OFFENSE:

Minnesota: 9th in ppg (25.6), 12th in yards per game (349.4), 15th in DVOA

LA Rams: 20th in ppg (21.6), 15th in yards per game (331.4), 10th in DVOA

In all those stats, the Rams only have an edge in offensive DVOA, and it’s by the slightest of margins. While Stafford is the better QB, the Vikings are the overall better team and I see them playing inspired ball following their tough loss in Detroit and advancing to the Divisional Round with a win in LA, or Arizona against LA.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Happy New Years to the Win Daily family! I’m very much looking forward to the 2025 year with all of you as we continue to push out information to help us all “Win”. As we enter the final week of the regular season, I’m in need of a positive one to stay on the plus side of the marker for the season. What is unfortunate is there are not many games on the slate that have playoff meaning. But we still have some angles to attack including understanding motivation, bonuses, draft positioning, and backup player talent. We’ll start with the prime-time game on Saturday night and take it to Sunday’s thriller in Detroit to determine the #1 seed in the NFC.

NFL BETS WEEK 18 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 45-45-1, game bets only)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (SATURDAY 830PM)

The Steelers have experienced a rough taste of reality over the past three weeks. They were blown out by three of the best teams in the NFL in the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. All along, the Steelers weren’t truly a viable 10-3 team. They lack offensive firepower, and their defense has significant holes, especially in the back end as both Kansas City and Philadelphia torched the Steelers through the air. But there’s one thing that Mike Tomlin is, and that’s the ultimate underdog. He is 21-7-3 as a home underdog in his career, including two outright wins this season (Baltimore and NY Jets). And coming off a terrible three game stretch, combined with the home underdog status to an 8-8 team, should be enough motivation to get the troops fired up.

Additionally, as much as Cincy has everything to play for, their defense is still an issue. The Steelers scored 44 on the Bengals back in early December. Since week 1, every team has scored at least 20 points on the Bengals minus the Giants (31st in points per game) and Browns (32nd in points per game). Then there’s the kicking concern which reared it’s ugly head again last week when Cade York missed a short game-winning FG attempt. On the other side, Pittsburgh has one of the best in the game who rarely misses in his home stadium. Finally, over 63% of the bets and money is pouring in on Cincy as their offense and playoffs hopes attract public attention.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +6.5 vs LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers have everything to play for while the Raiders have everything to lose for. In LA, a win by the Chargers will lock them into the #5 seed and send them to Houston next weekend for a playoff meeting with the Texans. A loss would push them 1000+ miles more east to Baltimore. The much more preferable option is obviously the Texans who have limped to the AFC South title this season despite having a negative point differential (-9).

But I’m going to back the feisty Raiders in this one. While a loss would put them in the conversation for a top-5 pick, that doesn’t seem to be something that is on HC Antonio Pierce’s mind. The Raiders have won their last two games following a 10-game losing streak. The reinsertion of QB Aiden O’Connell has sparked that mini win streak. However, it’s also clear the Raiders aren’t willing to lay down for their coach and will play hard until the end. And if this is in fact Pierce’s last game, I’m certain he will do his best to win it to improve his resume.

While the Chargers have looked impressive in the past two weeks, I could also see them getting out to a lead and then benching people thus opening a back-door situation. Playing in Houston likely means an early Saturday game so getting some guys out early might be in the back of Harbaugh’s mind if he feels he has the game in hand.

Lastly, 19% of the bets and 7% of the money is coming in on Vegas. That is the lowest on the board today and feels like this is a spot where the real Vegas could cash in big.

CHICAGO BEARS +9.5 at GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers have won 11 straight games against their rivals from the south. It is the longest current winning streak that one team has over another in the NFL. And wouldn’t it be so Chicago if they snapped that streak today? It’s obviously a meaningless game for the Bears and one they should lose to improve their draft stock. With a win they would likely drop outside of the top 5.

On the other hand, Green Bay is already resting several defensive players. They can only improve their positioning in the NFC with a win if the Commanders lose. Otherwise, Green Bay is off to Philadelphia for the first round of the playoffs. There will likely be scoreboard watching in Lambeau and that will determine the fate of their star players like Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love and others. I see the Bears playing this one for momentum and pride, as in not to lose their 12th in a row to Green Bay. Give me Da Bears in a game they should play to do what they know best, lose. But will do what Da Bears do best, which is the opposite of what their fans want.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 at DETROIT LIONS

I love both teams as they’ve embattled injuries and played hard, solid football all season. Minnesota incurred an injury to their presumed starting QB, JJ McCarthy, in the preseason. And all they did was hand the keys to Sam Darnold and watch him drive this team to a top 10 offense in scoring and passing. Detroit has had to overcome significant injuries to both fronts, including their defensive star Aiden Hutchinson and heart-and-soul RB David Montgomery. But yet, they keep winning, and doing it in style.

But ultimately, I’m taking the healthier team tomorrow night in the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers, who have been in shambles for weeks, put up 475 yards of offense against the Lions last Monday Night. That included 400 yards of passing. We just stated how Minnesota has a top 5 passing offense which means we have a major issue for the Lions. If it wasn’t for two Brock Purdy INT’s, the Lions likely wouldn’t have held on last week.

And Minnesota has the top rush defense in the league which will give Detroit some issues in their offensive attack. I see the Vikings getting just enough stops, and scoring enough points, to win the biggest game of the weekend and get the much desired 1st round bye.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): NEW YORK JETS -1.5. Say goodbye to Aaron Rodgers for good! We will all be better off for it. But in classic Rodgers fashion, he’ll leave with a win and tell you how close they were this year and how good he is.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 17 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. The Lions head to San Francisco where is the place they lost the NFC Championship Game last season. Revenge is on their mind as well as the need to keep pace with the Minnesota Vikings for the #1 seed in the NFC. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total as Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite with a game total at 51. As for the weather, it will be mild and clear making a good night for football. Temperatures will be in the lwo 50’s with very low winds (7-10 mph).

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

DETROIT LIONS

Running Back

With the loss of David Montgomery, the Lions backfield has become much clearer. It’s Jahmyr Gibbs and almost nobody else. Gibbs saw 69% of the snaps and 85% of the touches in Week 16. Craig Reynolds will see some action, as he accounted for 5 touches. But he’s more of a flyer play who will only reach value based on an injury to Gibbs or a long run/catch.

The 49ers are a team you can attack confidently on the ground. They’ve allowed 121 rushing yards per game as well as they 8th most fantasy points to RB’s. DVOA ranks them at 25th overall for rushing defense.

Gibbs is in store for a big game and should be considered for all your lineups as well as CPT.

Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs

Tier 2: Craig Reynolds

Punt

Wide Receiver

The Lions will have to choose tonight on how they attack a beleaguered San Fran team. Their pass defense has been a strength, allowing the 3rd least yards per game at 183.3. They’ve also allowed the fewest fantasy points to WR’s. But several receivers have found room against the 49ers, including Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in recent weeks.

My theory on tonight is Gibbs will have a big game along with 1-2 receivers. I lean Sam LaPorta for one then either Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams or Tim Patrick. I’d play a mix of those four, and not loading up a 3 receiver stack for tonight.

Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tier 2: Jameson Williams,

Punts: Tim Patrick

Tight End

It’s been a down year for Sam LaPorta as he has just one game over 100 yards receiving on the season. But he’s been much more involved in recent weeks, reeling in 19 balls over the last four games with three touchdowns. Based on coverage schemes in San Fran, I think this could be a big game for LaPorta. I like him over Williams (who relies on the deep ball) and Patrick.

Tier 1: Sam LaPorta

Tier 2: Ben Wright

Punt/Fadeable:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Running Back

Isaac Guerendo is back for the 49ers which is good news. Without him last week, the 49ers managed jsut 30 yards on 9 carries from their running backs. Detroit has been good against the run all season, allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to that position. But injuries have depleted their front line and second level. Just two weeks ago, James Cook ran for 105 yards on 14 carries against their vaunted D.

Tier 1: Isaac Guerendo

Tier 2: Patrick Taylor Jr.

Wide Receiver

The way to beat the Lions has been through the air as they allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. Detroit has also allowed the 5th most passing yards at 240.4 per game. Last week we saw the 49ers make a concerted effort to get Deebo Samuel involved in the offense. I think they’ll do that again tonight and he will see 10+ targets against this Lions D. Also consider Jauan Jennings who leads the 49ers in receiving yards and TD’s. He’s slowed down of late but should have an opportunity for big plays down the field against a Lions D that is missing key players in the defensive backfield.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings

Tier 2: Ricky Pearsall

Cheap Options: Chris Conley

Tight End

The Lions allow the 2nd fewest points to TE’s this season. George Kittle is not your typical TE so do I expect him to outscore the Lions average output. However, the Lions have given up the fewest yards to TE’s so he’ll have to produce by scoring a TD against this tough coverage unit.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Jahmyr Gibbs. The QB’s are both in play as Goff should have big plays available and Purdy is going against the 2nd worst pass defense in the NFL. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe Gibbs is your best options as well as St. Brown or Deebo Samuel. The 2 QB’s are a good option at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel

FDMVP Tier 2: Jauan Jennings, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy

FDMVP Tier 3: Isaac Guerendo, Sam LaPorta

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel

DK CPT Tier 2:  Jauan Jennings, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy

DK CPT Tier 3: Isaac Guerendo, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle

DK CPT Punt: Jameson Williams

Best Rules for the slate:

• The weather will be decent for football and conducive for the teams to throw the ball.
• I’ll have Jahmyr Gibbs as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And the 49ers have been bleeding yards to RB’s all year.
• For the 49ers WR’s, I prefer Samuel the most based on how the 49ers played last week. He also will see 1-2 carries and potentially one near the goal line.
• St. Brown should have a big day against the 49ers. San Fran is good at defending the deep ball so Detroit will have to look for the underneath routes.
• Sam LaPorta is inline for a big game tonight. I see the 49ers selling out on the run and leaving the 2nd level open.
• Both QB’s are good options and I lean to Goff for the bigger output. The 49ers D hasn’t been good of late and has lost TOP in four of their last five games.
• I’ll consider both kickers, but Jake Moody is a mess and the 49ers have nothing to play for. I could see them avoiding FG’s. Therefore, I will play more Jake Bates and he’s only $200 more in salary.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Are you not entertained? One of the famous quotes from Maximus in the original Gladiator is how the NFL felt following yesterday’s slate of games. The thriller in Cincinnati was one of the games of the year. And the Rams and Cardinals followed that up with a defensive battle that ended with a turnover in the endzone. For us, Saturday was a great day as well. In the NFL, the Cardinals got us in the plus money to finish with a 2-1 record on the day. On Discord, I went 4-1 in bowl games on Saturday cashing in on a big public fade with BYU. Coming off a 4-1 bowl slate on Friday, that’s now 10-3 in the past two days. Let’s keep that rolling into today’s NFL card.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Packers last week which was as easy as they come.

NFL BETS WEEK 17 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 43-43-1, game bets only)

BUFFALO BILLS -8.5 vs NY JETS

The Bills had a scare last weekend against a divisional rival. I don’t see that story repeating itself today when the Jets come to town. Buffalo can wrap up the #2 seed in the AFC with a win today, which would give them a mini-bye next week heading into the playoffs. That should be enough motivation to put on a show today at home. But if that’s not enough, they welcome their rivals from the east, who are a circus and have been looking forward to the offseason since October.

Add to that, the weather is calling for 40-mph gusts of winds in Buffalo. Meaning this could turn into a ground game. The Bills are 2nd in offensive rushing DVOA while the Jets are 29th. Plus, arm strength will also be a factor and there’s no other QB with a bigger rocket attached to his right shoulder than Josh Allen. If the script plays out how I see it, Rodgers will be sitting alone on the bench in the 2nd half starting at the clouds in the sky, thinking about his next darkness retreat or appearance on the McAfee show.

TENNESSEE TITANS +1.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This is a game that will determine the top of the NFL draft. Both teams sit at 3-12 and are likely picking in the top 10 of the 2025 draft. But one could be in the top 3 if they play their hand correctly. I’m banking that will be the Jaguars who have a dead man walking at Head Coach and are very used to picking in the top 3 (had 1st pick twice in the past 5 years).

This one is difficult to handicap, but I like the Titans because of the small edge at QB between Mason Rudolph and Mac Jones. Rudolph kept the Titans in the game last week and put up 30 points against the Colts. He was able to win critical games late last year to propel the Steelers into the playoffs. I trust him more than Jones, who put up just 14 points in Las Vegas last week and has 5 TD’s to 7 INT’s on the season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

The Eagles a foaming at the mouth to play this game. They are still furious at the way they allowed Washington to comeback and steal the victory from them last week in DC. While Jalen Hurts has been ruled out, the Birds still hold a huge talent edge over their bitter rivals. Kenny Pickett will be starting at QB, which is a dream for the kid who grew up in South Jersey attending Eagles games and wearing TO and Wentz jerseys. Also, the Cowboys have a big loss as Cee Dee Lamb has been ruled out. Which begs the question, how will the Boys move the ball today in Philly? With Lamb in the lineup, Dallas scored just 6 points and gained a total of 146 yards against the Eagles back in Week 10.

The Eagles also have the motivation of locking up the NFC East, and would be the first team to win back-to-back Division titles since 2004. And to do that against a team they consider their biggest rivals would be the cherry on top.

GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The game of the day kicks off in the 4pm window today in Minnesota. The Packers and Vikings are both locks for the playoffs. But their seed is still to be determined. While Green Bay can’t win the Division, they could move up to the top wild card with a win and some help which would give them a game against the NFC South winner instead of the Rams. Which is a big motivator. But the biggest motivation is these two teams don’t like each other. From the days of Brett Favre wearing both jerseys to Randy Moss mooning the crowd in Green Bay, these two have hated the others jersey for decades. Which means both have some added motivation to win and build momentum going into the playoffs.

In this scenario, I lean Green Bay. For one, HC Matt LeFleur knows how to win. The Packers did so at the end of the regular season last year which included a 33-10 win in Minnesota in Week 17. The Packers have a defense that can create turnovers and should be motivated as they allowed 31 points to Minnesota in their previous game this season. On offense, the Packers are multi-dimensional and able to beat you on the ground or air, ranking 3rd overall in offensive DVOA. Minnesota has been great but has struggled at time scoring TD’s, and that will be the difference tonight.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): N/A

SURVIVOR PICK

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Joe Flacco magic. If you’re still alive, you likely don’t have any good teams remaining. So this would be a great spot to land on as the Giants are clearly tanking for the #1 pick.

Will provide a pick on Sunday’s slate

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 16 was a step backwards as we went 1-3 in our plays. Christmas Day we saw a 1-1 record, which was admirable but we wanted more. So we have two more weeks to hit a big one and we’ll start with Saturday’s 3-game slate. Speaking of a “big one”, I posted all five bowl games on Friday and am currently sitting at 3-0. Both the other bets are trending nicely but this could be a very big day. So keep an eye on Discord on Saturday, as there are 7 bowl games for our viewing, and betting pleasure.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Packers last week which was as easy as they come.

NFL BETS WEEK 17 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 41-42-1, game bets only)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +5.5 vs LA CHARGERS

The Patriots showed fight and heart last week against Buffalo. Which is important when handicapping bad teams at the end of the season. There were rumors that HC Jerod Mayo’s job was on the line and the team couldn’t show any regression, or quit, down the stretch. If not for some timely mistakes, including a backwards pass turned to TD, the Pats may have beaten their division rivals. Which is evident of no quit.

As for the Chargers, their defense drives this train for the playoff hopeful team. But we’ve seen some holes in that unit recently, as the Chargers have fallen to 13th overall in defensive DVOA. In the last 2 weeks, they’ve allowed a total of 67 points to their opponents. Which means I have some confidence the Patriots can put up some yards and ultimately turn those into points.

Add to that New England is 4-2 ATS at home this season while LA is just 4-3 on the road SU.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS

This is a win or go home game for the Bengals. And in reality, even if they win they could be going home as they need a lot of help to make the playoffs including a win by the Chiefs in Week 18 who have nothing to play for. The scary part of betting the Bengals this year, is their defense. That unit ranks 29th in DVOA and allows the 5th most points per game at 26.2. Even with a big lead, the Bengals D has found ways to allow teams back into games.

But the good news is that side of the ball has gotten much better in recent weeks. The Bengals D has forced 9 turnovers in the last 2 games and allowed just 33 points. If they continue that trend, this offense will have enough to cover a spread that has leaked over the key number.

In desperation, I’ll take the hungrier team and the more veteran QB. Which are both wearing black and orange stripes.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +6.5 at LA RAMS

This is the game of the year in the NFC West. With the Seahawks win on Thursday night, they’ve kept pace with the Rams and forced them to win this game to clinch the Division. And ultimately, that win may not be it as they still need some help from friends. But with a loss, it would almost certainly set them up for an elimination game in Week 18 against Seattle.

If you look back at the previous game this year, you’ll see the Cardinals whooped the Rams to a tune of 41-10. It was HC Sean McVay’s second worst defeat of his career as head coach in LA. The Rams are definitely a different team since then, winning 8 of their last 10. But are they different enough to win by a touchdown over a team that beat them by 4+ TD’s?

Since the Rams defeat of the Bills, by a score of 44 to 42, the defense has stepped up allowing just 15 points in the last two games, including 0 TD’s allowed. But that has been against the likes of the 49ers (in the pouring rain) and the Jets (in the freezing cold). With weather in LA looking balmy this weekend, I see the defense reverting to the one that allowed 42 to Buffalo and 37 to Philly. Arizona is a division rival and would like nothing more than to make things messy in the NFC West. I look for the Cardinals to play spoiler and keep this one close, if not pull off an outright upset.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): N/A

SURVIVOR PICK

N/A

Will provide a pick on Sunday’s slate

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. The Saints go marching into Green Bay looking to build some momentum for 2025. While the Packers need to win to keep pace with Minnesota and Detroit as they still have a very outside shot to win the NFC North. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Green Bay is a 14-point favorite with a game total at 43. As for the weather, it will be cold at Lambeau Field as there is snow in the forecast during the day. While that should clear out by game time, the temperature will be around 30 degrees F with a windchill in the low 20’s.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Running Back

Welcome to the uncertainty of late season football. Injuries have plagued the New Orleans Saints all season long. But one position that stayed relatively healthy was running back. That was until last week when star RB Alvin Kamara came up with a leg injury which will keep him out of tonight’s game.

New Orleans will turn the starting duties over to RB Kendre Miller tonight. Miller has had a precarious time with the Saints, as he’s often been injured which brought out some telling comments from his coaches and players earlier this year. The talented runner from TCU will have his chance to show the talent that attracted the Saints to draft him in the 3rd round in 2023. He’s a physical runner that runs north and south.

The concern with Miller tonight is twofold. First, he’s not a great receiver. The Packers allow the 10th least rushing yards per game but the 12th most fantasy points to RB’s. That’s due in part to them allowing the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s, including the 6th most receptions at 5.1 per game. That’s mainly how backs get points on this Packers D. Secondly, durability is a concern for me as Miller has often been injured in his career. I’m not sure he’s ready for a full workload.

Which brings us to RB #2, who is almost $6K cheaper and a more proven back; Jamaal Williams. He may also be the beneficiary of goal line touches, if the Saints get there.

Others to keep an eye on are Jordan Mims and Clyde Edward-Helaire (CEH). We’ll track this situation throughout the day.

Tier 1: Kendre Miller

Tier 2: Jamaal Williams

Punt: Jordan Mims, CEH

Wide Receiver

The Packers have been very good against WR’s this season, allowing the 4th lowest points to that position. And most of those stats have been without star CB Jaire Alexander, as he’s missed the last month due to a knee injury. The good news is, he’s listed as questionable tonight with a decent chance to play.

The Saints, on the other hand, have been devastated by injuries at WR. Their 2nd leading WR on the season, in terms of yards, is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And he joined the team in November. And he’s listed as questionable for tonight with an illness. If he’s in, he’ll be the top WR to target as he saw 78% of the snaps last week and a team high 7 targets.

As for the other receivers, Dante Pettis saw the 2nd highest number of targets with 5 last week. But he had just the 4th highest number of snaps at 26 (47%).

The receiver that saw the field the most behind MVS, was Kevin Austin who saw 74.5% of the snaps. He was only able to bring in 1 of his 3 targets but the snap count makes him a sneaky play tonight.

The other two receivers that see reps are Mason Tipton (55% of snaps) and Cedrick Wilson Jr (36% of snaps). But neither recorded a catch last week. Wilson has some upside but also plays a lot of special teams for NO which limits his offensive snaps.

Tier 1: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tier 2: Kevin Austin, Dante Pettis

Punts: Cedric Wilson Jr, Mason Tipton

Tight End

The TE’s ruled the targets last week with Haener and Rattler at QB. Combined, Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau had 6 catches for 51 yards and a TD. The Packers allow the 8th most points to TE’s so this is an area the Saints can attack. It makes sense as it aligns with the Packers second level defense being poor against RB’s in the receiving game.

The Saints ran a lot of double TE packages last week as Moreau saw 64% of snaps and Johnson saw 73%. While Moreau outpaced Johnson in the catching category, I still prefer Juwan for fantasy purposes.

Tier 1: Juwan Johnson

Tier 2: Foster Moreau

Punt/Fadeable:

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Running Back

There’s not much science to the Packers running game. It’s Josh Jacobs then hardly anyone else. Coming into Week 16, Jacobs is 11th in snaps per game for RB’s, sitting at 42.1. But he’s pushes the top of the RB list in touches, coming in at the 3rd highest behind just Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams.

The Saints have struggled against RB’s this season allowing the 10th most fantasy points. In particular, they break down at the goal line, as they’ve allowed 14 rushing TD’s which is tied for the 2nd most in the NFL. And that fits perfectly with Jacobs as he is 2nd in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns.

This is a premium spot for Jacobs and considering the weather and game script, he should be considered as your top player tonight.

Tier 1: Josh Jacobs

Tier 2:

Wide Receiver

It’s always tough to predict the Packers preferred WR week in and week out. Back in Week 14, Christian Watson led the way with 6 targets followed by Dontayvion Wicks with 5. But in Week 15, it was Jayden Reed that led the way with 6, which was tied with Watson as well. Close behind was Romeo Doubs with 5 but he converted two of those into TD’s, which were his first TD’s wince Week 5.

The Saints rank bad against the pass game too, allowing the 5th most passing yards per game and the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They’ve been particularly poor against outside receivers especially in recent weeks. Looks at these numbers just from a target/catch perspective:

• Week 15: Terry McClaurin – 10 targets/ 7 catches/ 73 yards / 2 TD
• Week 14: Malik Nabers – 10 targets / 5 catches / 79 yards / 0 TD’s
• Week 13: Puka Nacua – 8 targets / 5 catches / 56 yards / 1 TD
• Week 12: Jerry Jeudy – 11 targets/ 6 catches/ 142 yards/ 1 TD
• Week 11: Drake London – 13 targets/ 8 catches/ 97 yards/ 1 TD

So there is room to run against this Saints defensive backfield. If we truly knew who the Packers #1 was, then I’d be heavily invested in that player. But based on similarities of the receivers above, I’m going to rank Watson as my favorite followed by Reed. Romeo Doubs is too volatile as he has just two games with TD catches. And Wicks doesn’t see enough targets to be considered above Watson and Reed.

Tier 1: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed

Tier 2: Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks

Cheap Options: t

Tight End

The Saints allow the 18th most points to TE’s. It’s likely due to the other positions having big days. But Tucker Kraft is much like a WR in this offense so I consider him as a primary option tonight in your lineups. He’s scored 7 TD’s this season including two in the last three games.

Tier 1: Tucker Kraft

Tier 2: Ben Sims

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Jacobs. The QB’s are both in play as Love should have big plays available and Rattler will have to throw (and run) a lot. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft

FDMVP Tier 2: Christian Watson, Spencer Rattler

FDMVP Tier 3: Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Juwan Johnson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft

DK CPT Tier 2:  Christian Watson, Spencer Rattler

DK CPT Tier 3: Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Juwan Johnson

DK CPT Punt: Green Bay Defense

Best Rules for the slate:

• The weather will be decent for football once the snow clears out which should happen prior to kickoff. Winds are below 10 mph which will allow for passing and kicking games to be effective.
• I’ll have Josh Jacobs as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And the Saints have been bleeding yards to RB’s all year.
• For the Packers WR’s, I prefer Watson and Reed over Doubs and Wicks. The Packers do like to take shots downfield at least a few times per game. Watson should be the beneficiary of that.
• Of all the Packers receivers, Tucker Kraft is my favorite. I like him to be a big part of this offense tonight. With no Luke Musgrave (on IR), Kraft has seen an average of 90% of the snaps in the last 3 weeks. For the year, he’s seen 86% of the snaps. He also has the most receiving TD’s on the team with 7.
• For the Saints, the sneaky WR play I like is Kevin Austin. He saw almost 75% of the snaps last week and was acting as WR #2.
• The Saints TE’s should see some volume in the passing game as young QB’s often rely on them as a safety valve. Consider both Johnson and Moreau.
• My main concern with Rattler is the Saints could urn to Haener if the game gets out of control. But Rattler provides value as he gainst points with his legs; 9 rushes for 61 yards in 2 games he started.
• Green Bay Defense is a viable option tonight and one that could put up some big points against a broken down Saints offense.
• The only kicker I’ll consider is McManus as I don’t think the Saints will have many opportunities.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 15 was good for us as we posted a 3-2 record on our game bets. But yesterday wasn’t good for us in NFL as we went 0-2 backing both road dogs. On the good side, we did go 2-1 in college football yesterday so all wasn’t lost. We’re still hanging tough and staying above the red line, but we’re looking to take a big leap over the next three weeks so we can have a nice little wallet for the playoffs.

Of note, the dogs went 5-11 last week. Which is a reverse split from Week 14 when we saw the dogs rule the day. We have to assess whether this is a sign of things to come down the stretch or whether it was just an anomaly for Vegas.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Eagles last week and they came through. We’re trying to look at teams that you may not have taken yet based on schedule.

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 39-38-1, game bets only)

NEW YORK GIANTS +9 at ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons were the news story of this week as they turned the page on the Kirk Cousins experiment after only 14 games. Atlanta now hands the ball to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. The former Washington QB was picked in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft and led his team to the College Football Championship Game. He’s uber talented, and has a great set of receivers and backs to throw to in Atlanta.

The reason I’m backing the Giants today is because of the expected ramp up that is typically needed by a rookie QB. Even the great Jayden Daniels lost his first game this year when he played the Bucs. The same can be said for Bo Nix and Drake Maye. The only QB that won his first start this season was Caleb Williams but that was because Will Levis turned the ball over 3 times including a pick 6 to lose the game (Bears trailed 17-0 as well).

Giants are terrible and packing it in. But Atlanta’s defense isn’t strong enough to completely pin down the G-men. Malik Nabers is still an issue and the Giants have found some success on the ground of late. I’ll take the points today, reluctantly.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL square off today in South Florida. While both seam deflated, I’m backing the 49ers today to show up with some added motivation and play a distraction free game. For one, the incident involving their LB De’Vondre Campbell not wanting to play last week should galvanize this team. They should want to play as together as they had all season to help rid themselves of that noise and build a new foundation for 2025.

As for the Dolphins, Tua turned it over 4 times last week as the pass rush affected him greatly. San Fran still has a solid front and can create havoc along the line. Then there’s this little thing with the coaches as Mike McDonald comes from the Shannahan tree. I’ll take the teacher as the student has not shown up this season.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

The books, and me, got a little too excited by the Panthers recent play. From being a favorite versus a 5-win team, the Panthers are now a 5+ point dog against a 7-win team. This just feels like a little overreaction here to a bad game. The Cardinals haven’t been lighting it up, losers in three of their last four. And more troubling, they are 2-4 on the road SU this season. Those two wins were both by one point each so their overall point differential in those six games is -36 (they are +44 at home). I’m banking on the Panthers to return to their competitive ways and possibly pull off an outright win today in Carolina.

NEW YORK JETS +3.5 vs LA RAMS

I said I wouldn’t be the Jets again back in Week 13. But I broke that rule last week and it paid off. The reason being, the Jets are now playing with house money. Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game in years last week. Which just shows they’ve shutout the noise and are just playing football. My concern for the Rams is they are flying across the country, playing an early game, in freezing weather. Remember where Rodgers once played? Yes, cold shouldn’t be a factor. But it could for a QB that’s played his whole career in a dome and LA.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Chicago Bears +7.5 (-120)

SURVIVOR PICK

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Saints are a mess. The Packers aren’t. Do you think the Saints will be up to play in the freezing cold of Green Bay in December just 2 days before Christmas? I don’t.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We have an awesome day of football ahead of us on this last Saturday before Christmas. First, if last night’s inaugural College Football Playoff Game taught us anything, the atmosphere for the playoff games is second to none. And the pressure is definitely ramped up as we saw an Indiana team look completely overwhelmed by the moment.

As for the NFL, we have two tremendous games for our Saturday viewing pleasure as AFC heavyweights meet to determine playoff positioning.

So we’ll cover it all here and hope you can sit back and enjoy what is the most exciting day of football that we’ve seen in quite some time.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS

SMU MUSTANGS +9 at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (12pm EST)

There are several teams in this year’s playoffs that have benefited from their schedule. Obviously, Indiana was one and showed the world their metrics were weighted thanks to their weak opponents. And prior to the Big 10 title game, the same could be said of Penn State whose out of conference schedule consisted of West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State. In fact, they played two ranked opponents in the regular season, with both happening at home, and they were 1-1. Overall, Penn State ended with the 30th ranked SOS (strength of schedule).

On the other hand, SMU’s resume looks even worse. They played no teams in the top 15 this season. Their toughest game was the ACC Championship game, which they lost to Clemson. Only other ranked teams they played were Louisville and Pittsburgh, who were no higher than #18 in the polls. The Mustangs schedule was ranked 60th overall.

But the reason I’m backing the Mustangs today is twofold. First, Penn State under HC James Franklin does not perform well in high pressure situations. The Nittany Lions are 13-27 against ranked teams in Franklin’s 11 seasons as coach. They are 3-17 against top-10 teams.

But my second reason is the matchup. SMU allows just 93.4 yards rushing per game. That is 5th best in the nation. Penn State relies on the running game to open up their passing. The Lions average 202. yards per game rushing, good for 18th best in the nation. Additionally, SMU is a top 10 scoring offense and top 25 yardage offense. Penn State has played two teams ranked in the top 25 in total yardage, USC and Oregon, and they allowed a combined 75 points to those two teams. I think SMU has a strong front that can slow down Penn State and a good enough offense to stay in this game for all four quarters.

TEXAS LONGHORNS -12 vs CLEMSON TIGERS (4pm EST)

Watching Texas, they may have the most talented roster in College Football. Their issue is finishing drives and making mistakes at crucial times. They were the better team in the SEC Championship, but didn’t put Georgia away early as they settled for FG’s instead of converting them into TD’s. The Longhorns have the best defense in this playoffs and that will show today against Clemson.

The Tigers were fortunate to get into the show. It took some luck, as Syracuse knocked off Miami after being down 21 points to allow Clemson to play in the ACC Championship game. Then there’s the 57-yard FG to win the ACC. They’ll need more than luck today in Texas as they are playing a team that went toe-to-toe with everyone, including Georgia. Does anyone remember what Georgia did to Clemson earlier this year? Yeah, it was 34-3 with Clemson gaining just 188 total yards.

I know Texas got somewhat lucky with their schedule in the SEC. But they are a very good team who just loss a game they felt they should have won. I think they’ll put their best foot forward today and take out their frustrations on Clemson.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -7 vs TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (8pm EST)

There is no bigger spotlight in college football than the one pointing directly at Ohio State HC Ryan Day. After a fourth straight loss to rival Michigan, the Buckeyes leader is coaching for his life. And that’s rightfully so as he has failed to bring home the hardware, or beat their hated rival, with arguably the most talented team in the nation.

That pressure can break you or make you stronger. And for one night, I like the latter. Tennessee has a great running game but they struggle in the passing game. Ohio State was pushed around on the ground by Michigan, and many will point to that as reason to give the Volunteer’s hope. But I chalk that up to being 3 touchdown favorites and not taking their opponent seriously (which is obviously a mistake and coaching issue). That will change tonight in the big spotlight shining on the horseshoe. The Buckeyes will step up and force Tennessee to throw which will create turnovers and allow Will Smith to operate on a short field. I’m buying the Buckeyes and will back them in the biggest game of Ryan Day’s career.

NFL SATURDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1pm EST)

The Texans have been underwhelming this year, but have clinched the AFC South with a 9-5 record after 14 weeks. By clinching their spot in the postseason, they can now focus on setting up a run to New Orleans. And that starts today as they travel to the two-time defending Super Bowl Champs in Kansas City. I like the Texans to play one of their best games, specifically on defense, and keep this game close throughout. Houston allows the 4th least yards per game and 9th lowest points per game in the NFL. And KC is just 13th in points per game at 23.5. And the injury to Patrick Mahomes is a concern as the Texans rush the QB at a high rate as they rank 2nd in the NFL with 45 team sacks.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS (430pm EST)

This is a classic Mike Tomlin spot. Coming off an embarrassing defeat in Philadelphia, the Steelers are looking left for dead. No George Pickens and potentially no TJ Watt. But as a dog, Mike Tomlin thrives. He is 44-29-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Better yet, the Steelers have won 7 of the past 8 games against their bitter rivals. This is just too big of a number in one of the best division rivalries in the league.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.