Shriners Children’s Open

Time flies when you’re having fun (or getting old). It’s 12 months since I was meeting up with our fellow WinDaily Sports superstar and fellow golf data nerd Spencer Aguiar (aka @TeeOffSports). We had an awesome time exploring TPC Summerlin and watching our Shriners Children’s Open picks during the first round in 2022. Work and child commitments meant I needed to fly back to New Zealand after a whistle stop 16 hours in Vegas.

But before leaving, we did get to witness one of the greatest shots of the year from Sungjae Im. We were standing by the green waiting for the group to play up and could not even see Im down in the waste area. He managed to produce the spectacular:

The Week Just Been

It was a week of close calls for us on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last week. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, our 200/1 selection Zecheng Dou was close to another first round leader. He bogeyed the last to miss out on the places at equivalent odds of +4000. We did however cash Top 20 and Top 40 bets on him at +500 and +200. We also cash a Top 40 on Vince Whaley at +170 and a Top 20 for Erik Van Rooyen +233 (reduced under dead-heat rules).

Over in Europe, sadly the Alfred Dunhill Links was heavily affected by adverse weather conditions. Heavy flooding saw two days abandoned and the tournament reduced to 54 holes with all professionals playing the three rounds. Matthew Southgate surged into the lead, only to be caught down the stretch by Matthew Fitzpatrick. His 2nd place finish cashes a full place at +1320 and our Top 20 at +260. Another huge priced outside Jeff Winther was our next near miss. Selected at 250/1, he finished just one shot outside the a place payout at +5000 in 10th. We cash a Top 20 at +750 and a Top 40 at +320.

All up, we finish the week with a small profit and a tinge of what could have been.

TPC Summerlin Course Analysis

Host for our Shriners Children’s Open picks is TPC Summerlin, an oasis in the desert of Las Vegas. The course plays as a par 71 at 7,255 yards. I’ve seen a lot of rhetoric, as we often do, that driving distance is an advantage here. Yes, driving distance is always an advantage at any golf course. Statistically, driving distance doesn’t have a massive predictive factor on final result here. We have seen both long drivers and accurate drivers find success here. Part of this is as a result of the course playing shorter than it’s yardage due to the high altitude and thinner air.

Approach does see an uptick for shots under 150 yards, with an additional two approach shots within this range. This is a combination of no truly drivable par 4 and of the 3 par 5s one is a long 606 yards and another features a gnarly second shot over water if going for it.

Primarily we see a significant uptick in SG: Putting and, secondly, SG: Around-The-Green. This correlates with an increase in bogey avoidance and birdie % here. It is no surprise that Cantlay has found such success on this course, having been in the top 5 on the PGA Tour for birdie percentage for the last couple of years.

Course Comps for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

The somewhat generic nature of TPC Summerlin is also reflected in the course comps this week. No one course stands out as a common thread between the course analysis and performance here. Where we do see correlation is on the leaderboards on other desert courses.

The American Express is played in the desert of neighbouring California. This has the added benefit of seeing an uptick in approach from under 150 yards and a heavy emphasis on putting performance. It often turns into a birdie fest and, as Rahm famously said, “a f*cking putting contest.”

For similar reasons, TPC San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open shows some correlation to TPC Summerlin leaderboards. Another desert course where the driver is somewhat neautralized, but with a heavy emphasis on the short game particularly around the green.

Finally, don’t discount form from the DP World Tour at the Dubai Desert Classic. The tournament always attracts one of the strongest fields on the DP to -World Tour. It is a Rolex Series event and they also pay generous appearance fees. Scores to win there typically range from -18 to -25.

Weather for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

There appears to be little weather edge to take advantage of this week. Thursday should see winds decrease as the day goes on. However, this will be offset somewhat by the greens firming up and getting faster in the Nevada sun. Friday morning will see winds marginally lower than in the afternoon.

Overall, I would give a small weighting on players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The edge is not substantial. Therefore, I would recommend only building a few stacks playing across those tee-times but certainly wouldn’t remove players from my player pool exclusively due to the weather forecast.

Shriners Children’s Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Adam Schenk – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Favourite
3pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Lucas Herbert
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300

Chesson Hadley – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +375

Erik Van Rooyen
1.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365)
And
4pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Shriners Children’s Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

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