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Seattle Mariners

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 24)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means we have a split MLB DFS slate, with a 5-game early slate and an 8-game main slate. This article will be solely focused on the main slate tonight. This slate brings us not much in the way of pitching as we have just a few middle-tier pitchers throwing tonight and then just a bunch of bad arms. What it does bring us is plenty of options for stacks.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Chicago Cubs

Kodai Senga is coming off by far his best outing in the big leagues. In his last outing vs. the Rays, he was masterful, throwing 6 innings of 1 run ball and striking out a career-high 12 batters. He’ll look to build on that outing tonight vs. the Cubs. The Cubs are no walk in the park, as evidenced by their drubbing of Tylor Megill last night.

That said, I really like the spot for the Senga tonight as the Cubs are a team that can be beat. He also has some K upside tonight as the projected lineup for the Cubs has a strikeout rate of nearly 26% vs. righties. He doesn’t come without risk, but I’ll be rocking Senga tonight as my SP1.

Bryce Miller vs. Oakland Athletics

The pitcher with the best matchup tonight on paper goes to Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners. The A’s have been extremely poor against righties this season. As a team, they have a 26% K rate and an OPS under .650. They are bad, very bad. Although I just focused on how bad the A’s are, it shouldn’t take away from the fact that Miller has been really good.

Through his first 4 big league starts, Miller has pitched to a 1.42 ERA, an xFIP of 3.8, and a 25% K rate. The best number for him though has been his WHIP. His WHIP this season is a staggering .51. He’s done an amazing job of keeping runners off the bases and if he can continue with that tonight, he should be able to walk through a bad A’s team.

Other pitchers I’ll have interest in tonight will be James Paxton vs. the Angels and Sandy Alcantara vs. the Rockies.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Seattle Mariners vs. Ken Waldichuk

The Mariners were a huge bust last night, scoring just 3 runs vs. the 40-loss Oakland A’s. Luis Medina has been one of the better pitchers of the year and it’s understandable that they didn’t put up a mammoth number last night. That all changes today as Ken Waldichuk has been one of their worst pitchers of the year. He’s started 9 games so far this season and has allowed less than 3 ER just once.

Over the last month, he’s allowed 6 homers and 11 barrels in 26 innings of work. Most importantly though his WHIP over that stretch is pushing 2 at 1.85. He allows a ton of baserunners and if the Mariners can be patient, they can have a field day against Waldichuk. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits as both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .400 against him. That said, lefties have shown way more power against him with a .407 ISO.

I’m starting my Mariners stack tonight off with Jarred Kelenic. The kid has been a beast vs. lefties this season. All of his metrics this season have been better vs. lefties. His average is more than 70 points, his slugging 221 points, and his OPS is 1.099 vs. them. The past 2 seasons’ struggles seem to be a thing of the past and his top-prospect ability is finally showing.

I’ll look to also include Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and Cal Raleigh in this stack. Teoscar Hernandez is also in play but he’s been mostly a bust this season and very well could net you a big fat 0 today.

Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd

The 2023 version of Matthew Boyd has not been good. On the year Boyd has pitched to a 6.21 ERA and that’s ballooned to over 7 over the last month. Over his last 23 innings of work, Boyd has given up 5 homers and 6 barrels. It’s been the flyballs that have been killing him as his flyball rate over the last month is well over 50%.

It’s tough to succeed when the ball is in the air that much. With Boyd, we’ll want to focus on the righties. He’s significantly worse against them. Righties have a nearly .200 ISO vs. him this season and a wOBA over .350. All 6 of the homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties.

Knowing how bad Boyd has been against righties, we’ll start this stack off with our good friend Salvador Perez and his teammate Bobby Witt. Witt has been great vs. lefties this season. His ISO is up to .300 and his wOBA is at .341. He’s in line for a nice night tonight. With Perez, we have someone who has historically done really well vs. lefties. The power numbers are a bit down for him vs. lefties this season but he still has a respectable .154 ISO vs. them. Other bats I like here tonight will be Maikel Garcia, Edward Oliveras, and Matt Duffy. All 3 have decent numbers vs. southpaws.

Other stacks to look at tonight will be the Nationals vs. Ryan Weathers, Padres vs. Trevor Williams, and Baltimore Orioles vs. Nestor Cortes. Cortes is not the same pitcher we saw in 2022 and should struggle against a very good Orioles lineup tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

This slate is packed with stacks that should do well. Pitching is suspect but I do really like both Senga and Miller tonight to have solid outings.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 22)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday Funday and that typically means a smaller MLB DFS slate. Today we have a 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. At some point, I really hope that sites adapt to the earlier start times because there are some solid games that start between 6-7 pm. Tonight’s slate is void of any true aces but we have some solid mid-tier pitching. We’ll also have some decent spots for offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Luis Castillo vs. Oakland Athletics

I suspect that Luis Castillo will be the chalk pitcher of the night and he’s going to be really tough to fade. The A’s are an extremely beatable team night in and night out. We saw Framber Valdez dominate this lineup yesterday, throwing a complete game shutout. Now Valdez is a lefty so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but this just isn’t a good team that Castillo will be facing.

Castillo has looked rather pedestrian over his last handful of starts. However, we need to look at who he has faced over that stretch. The Red Sox, Rangers, Houston, and Toronto. All very solid lineups. I like this matchup tonight for Castillo to get right and have one of his more dominant outings of the year. He’s the SP1 for me tonight and I don’t think it’s very close.

Michael Lorenzen vs. Kansas City Royals

After a decent stretch of offense for the Royals, they came crashing down hard against the White Sox. In the 3-game set vs. the White Sox, the Royals scored just 3 runs and struck out 28 times. Not a good look for a young team. While Lorenzen isn’t necessarily known for strikeouts, I think he has some upside here.

He was able to dial it up to 7 k’s in his last outing and he’ll be facing a projected Royals lineup tonight that has a 25% k rate vs. righties this year and an embarrassing .284 wOBA. This is a spot that screams upside for the Tigers right-hander. He’s always a risk because he’s an average at best pitcher, but I do really like this spot for him tonight.

Two other pitchers tonight that I don’t mind are Christian Javier vs. Milwaukee Brewers and Edward Cabrera vs. Colorado in Colorado. With Javier, he’ll be facing an inconsistent Brewers lineup. Javier has been one of the top pitchers in baseball this season and he should be able to navigate this lineup. My like for Cabrera is that he’s a ground ball pitcher that has a high k upside. Over the last month, he’s allowed just a 24.5% flyball rate. If he can keep the ball on the ground in Colorado, he should do well against a bad Rockies lineup.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Muller

Certain things in life are guaranteed, with death and taxes being 2 of them. This season, stacking against the Oakland Athletics has become close to a certainty. I’ll be stacking against them most nights and tonight will be no different. Muller is coming into this having allowed at least 5 ER in 3 straight games. He’s allowed at least 5 ER in 5 games this season. It’s not even June yet. While lefties will still be in play tonight, we want to prioritize getting the righties in here. They have a 48% hard-hit rate vs. him and a wOBA over .400

Before we get into which guys I want here, I need to give the bad first. The Mariners have not been good vs. lefties this season. They’ve actually struggled quite mightily. That said, it’s Kyle Muller and he’s no average lefty. He’s atrocious. The 3 guys I’ll look to prioritize here will be Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez.

Hernandez is my favorite of the bunch. He strikes out quite a bit vs. lefties, but he also has immense power with an ISO of .333. Ty France and AJ Pollock are also going to be options here. In fact, the whole team is in play because Muller and the A’s are just bad and will more often than not give up a lot of runs.

Atlanta Braves vs. Gavin Stone

Gavin Stone’s big league debut did not go well. Against the Phillies, he allowed 4 ER in just 4 innings of work. While he didn’t give up any homers, he did allow a ton of contact with an 87% contact rate. Things won’t get any easier for him as he gets to take on the first-place Atlanta Braves in his second outing. The Braves are one of the top lineups in the league and if it’s anything like the Phillies game, he’s going to struggle once again.

The three main attractions here will be Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and a surprising Orland Arcia. All three guys had monster weeks with OPSs of over 1.200. Arcia actually led the way with an OPS of 1.274 over the last week. Back to the star of the team in Acuna.

Acuna is seeing the ball as well as he has ever seen it. Over the last week, Acuna has 5 barrels and a 60% hard-hit rate. None of his contact over the last week has fallen into the Soft category. We are witnessing one of the top players in the league return to form and it’s a ton of fun to watch. Other options in this lineup tonight will be Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy. I also like Ozzie Albies here.

Other stacks to look at tonight will be the Marlins vs. Chase Anderson, Angels vs. Tanner Houck, and Twins vs. John Brebbia

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be an interesting slate. I plan on going heavy with the Mariners tonight, but also sprinkling in some Braves where I can afford them.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 12)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means we have day baseball as it’s getaway day for most teams. We have an 8 game early slate of MLB DFS today. This is going to be a slate packed with offense. We have a Coors game and we also have a warm and windy game in Wrigley. At first glance, pitching is limited on this slate.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler vs. Miami Marlins

With a lack of solid arms this afternoon, I suspect that Wheeler will be extremely popular tonight. He gets a nice matchup vs. a below-average Marlins lineup. Yes, they put an 8 spot vs. the Phillies last night. Aaron Nola has been mostly ineffective this season. Wheeler on the other hand has been pretty good.

After a questionable start to open the year vs. the Rangers, he settled down nicely against the Reds. This is a Marlins lineup that has essentially been terrible vs. righties this season. The projected lineup this afternoon has a K rate over 28% and a wOBA below .290. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but this has ceiling game written all over it for Wheels.

Sonny Gray vs. Chicago White Sox

This is where things start to get a little dicey. After Wheeler, there’s a ton of risk with all pitchers. Sonny Gray has been really solid to start the year. In his last outing, he was absolutely dominant. In 7 innings of work, he struck out 13 Astros. Yes, the lineup is missing Jose Altuve but it’s still a mighty lineup that he was able to beat.

The White Sox also possess a strong lineup, but that is much better against lefties. I tend to only attack them with righties and that’s what we’ll do today with Gray. He’s a slight risk, but he’s been really good to start the year. Look for him to have another really strong outing this afternoon at just $8.3k.

Blake Snell vs. New York Mets

This is also a risky pick, but the New York Mets just haven’t looked good vs. lefties for the past couple of seasons. As a Mets fan, I hope I’m wrong about this one, but I can really see Snell walking through this lineup this afternoon.

Outside of some control issues, Snell was able to do well against mostly the same lineup in the Wild Card Series last year. I’ll more than likely stick with Gray and Wheeler this afternoon, but if you can stomach it, Snell should do well today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jose Urena

I normally try to avoid this, but I’m going to a Coors team as my top stack today. The Cardinals get just a monster matchup today vs. an awful pitcher in Jose Urena. In 2 starts this year, Urena hasn’t made it past 2 innings of work. In each game, he’s given 4 ER and at least 1 homer. That trend should continue today vs. one of the better lineups in all of baseball.

Against Urena, I’m going to slightly favor lefties here. Since the start of the 2022 season, lefties have a wOBA of nearly .400 vs. him compared to just .300 for righties. That said, righties are still very much in play here.

I’m going to prioritize getting guys like Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson into my stack. Both Gorman and Burleson are priced under $4k today in what should be a splendid environment for baseball in Colorado today. They’ll each have the platoon advantage as well.

With the 2 of them being on the cheaper end, it will make paying up for Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt a smidge easier. If you can only afford one of the expensive pieces here, my lean would be Arenado as he’s swinging a better bat right now. We also can’t forget about rookie phenom Jordan Walker at just $3.4k today. Walker has so far hit safely in every game that he’s played. While he hasn’t full stat lines, the Cardinals should go ham today and Walker very well could be in the middle of it. And he’s dirt cheap.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Edward Cabrera

It’s going to be warm in Philly today and when it is, the ball travels in good ole Citizens Bank Ball Park. Cabrera has been shaky to start the season. In his 2 starts, he’s faced the Mets both times. He’s walked at least 6 in each of those outings. Against a strong Phillies lineup, you can’t put that many guys on and expect to survive very long.

If his control is off, he’s going to get pounded by this Phillies team. We’re going to want to actually prioritize the righties for the Phillies today. Righties have much better offensive metrics vs. him since the start of the last year.

Knowing that I’ll want to get Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos into my stack. Castle is my favorite of the 3 as he’s the one really hitting the ball well right now. Over his last 3 games, he has 6 hits and has scored or driven in 8 runs. At just $4.2k in this matchup, he’ll be a lock in my stack today.

Just because we like the righties here, doesn’t take away from my love for Kyle Schwarber today. I love targeting him when he faces pitch to contact pitchers. This is the type of matchup where Schwarber can take one very deep into the right-field seats today. With Cabrera’s walk tendencies this season, the Phillies are a full stack for me today. He’ll be putting lots of men on and we’ll want to secure that correlation.

Seattle Mariners vs. Marcus Stroman

I want at least a piece of this game today in Wrigley. It’s supposed to be 80 degrees and the wind blowing 20 mph out to dead center. When the weather is like this, regardless of who is on the mound, the stadium plays like Coors. The ball just absolutely flies and runs get scored. Vegas currently has both teams with an expected run total over 5.

Stroman has yet to yield a run this season, blanking both the Brewers and the Rangers. I just don’t see that happening again today with how the weather is expected to be. These 2 teams combined for 23 runs last night and the weather will be even better today. The pitching will be better, but again, when the weather is like this it doesn’t matter much.

My core with the Mariners today is going to be Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Ty France, and Jarred Kelenic. Let’s get to Kelenic. After struggling mightily in his Major League stints prior to this season, he finally appears to be putting it together. With Edwin Diaz out for the season, it’s making that trade look even worse for the New York Mets. It’s still very early in the season, but Kelenic’s average is up to .330 and most importantly his OBP is over .400. The kid has all the talent in the world and appears to finally be comfortable facing major league pitching. He’s also only $3k today. He’s a lock for me.

Cal Raleigh isn’t in my core, but he’s also in play. He’s crushing the ball right now, with 5 barrels over the last week. At $3.8k, he’s a cheap way to get a piece of an offense with a 5 projected total.

MLB DFS Summary

There’s going to be a lot of offense today. It’s one of the warmer days to start the season and pitching is suspect today. Two of the better pitchers on the slate will be pitching in an environment primed for offense.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 10)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

With more and more teams opting for 6:40 start times, the main slate has started to become smaller and smaller. Tonight’s main slate is just 8-games, but that makes for a much more manageable slate of MLB DFS. We have Coors and we also have Corbin on the hill vs. a very good Angels lineup. We also have a repeat of the NL Wild Card round from last year the Padres making their way to Citi Field. This is shaping up to be a fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Julio Urias vs. San Francisco Giants

So far to start the year, the Giants have really struggled vs. lefties. Through their first 60 AB vs. lefties, they’ve hit just .153 with just 1 homer. They also have a 40% strike-out rate and just a .213 wOBA. This is an attackable team right now vs. lefties and we’ll attack them with one of the best lefties in the game in Julio Urias.

Urias has had a solid start to the season. He’s sporting a nearly 28% k rate and an xFIP of just 2.72. When hitters have put the ball in play, he’s done an excellent job of limiting the damage by getting them to put the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his nearly 52% groundball rate. He should be able to dominate this Giants lineup tonight.

Luis Castillo vs. Chicago Cubs

Luis Castillo has started out the season with some impressive numbers. Through his first 2 starts of the season, Castillo is sporting a 30% K rate, while having an xFIP just over 3. He’s still yet to give up an ER and I doubt that continues too much longer, but with a date with the Chicago Cubs, an extension of his innings scoreless streak very well could continue tonight.

While the Cubs haven’t been awful to start the year, they are still an average at best lineup and one that Castillo should be able to handle with relative ease. A double ace combo of Urias and Castillo very well could be the combo that gets you to the winner’s circle tonight. A combined 50 points from the two is very well attainable.

Bryce Elder vs. Cincinnati Reds

If you want to go the cheap route tonight with one of your pitchers, Bryce Elder is more than likely the play. In his lone outing this season, he looked absolutely dominant vs. the Cardinals. In that start, he went 6 innings without allowing a single run. He also struck out 6 and gave up just 2 hits. The lineup that he’ll face tonight against the Reds will be far weaker than what he saw a week ago vs. the Cardinals. Can he do it again at just $6.6k? It’s absolutely in the realm of possibilities.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Before I get into my stacks I want to touch on Coors. Both teams are 100% in play. Anytime a team is playing in Coors, they are in play and you just don’t need me to tell you that. My goal here is to provide you with other options and that’s what I’ll be doing. I don’t want that to take away from the fact that both teams in Coors tonight have phenomenal matchups.

Seattle Mariners vs. Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly’s first start of the season could not have gone any worse. Against the Reds, he went just 4 innings and gave up 6 ER and 9 hits. It was a struggle for him right from the very start of the game and with facing a much better Mariners lineup tonight, we very well could expect to see the same thing.

The only thing that Smyly had going for him in that initial outing was that he was able to limit Reds hitters from inducing hard contact as they had a 16% hard-hit rate. One might say the BABIP gods weren’t in his favor. When you allow a nearly 81% contact rate though, you’re just asking for trouble and he’ll see some trouble tonight.

Core: My core with the Mariners tonight will be Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and AJ Pollock. 3 of the 4 guys have long track records of being able to hit lefties well. Hernandez last year absolutely annihilated lefties with a .450 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He’s one of my favorite bats on the board tonight and should excel in this matchup. Rodriguez has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games and a world of upside tonight.

Secondary: Other than my core with the Mariners, I’ll also look to add in guys like Sam Haggerty, Ty France, and Cal Raleigh. All three of them have good to solid numbers vs. lefties and should also do well in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Patrick Corbin

You knew I was going to go here right? If Corbin is on the mound, I’m stacking against him and that awful Nationals bullpen. Corbin has now thrown in 2 games and has an ERA of 8. While that seems high, his xFIP of nearly 5 does indicate that he’s awful. After giving up a 64% groundball rate in his first outing, he ended up giving up way more line drives and fly balls in his second out. If that continues tonight, he’s going to get rocked by a team that has done extremely well vs. lefties this season so far. So far in 2023, the Angels have an OPS of .946 and a wOBA over .400.

Core: The obvious part of the core here is going to be Trout and Ohtani. Nothing that I can say here will do their talents justice. They are two of the best in the game. I’m also going to add Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe to my core. Hunter Renfroe lines up extremely well tonight with Corbin. Over the past few seasons, he has a .423 ISO vs. lefty sinkers and a .577 wOBA. He’s going to homer tonight.

Secondary/Value: Other important bats here will be Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon. They should both smash in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Wade Miley

Wade Miley is coming off a shutout of the New York Mets. Even though he gave up 0 runs in that start, his xFIP for the start was well over 5. To go along with his 3 k’s in 6 innings, he also gave up a 48% flyball rate. Giving up flyballs almost half the time is asking for trouble and this Diamondbacks team has some sneaky power vs. lefties.

Core: We’ll want to get Christian Walker, Evan Longoria, and Lourdes Gurriel into our lineups tonight. Walker had a .232 ISO vs. lefties last season and a wOBA over .350. I’m also very intrigued by Gurriel tonight. He lines up very well with Miley. Miley throws his cutter more than 40% of the time to righties. This is a pitcher that Gurriel has handled well in his career. Over the last few years, he has a .429 ISO vs. it and a wOBA of .482.

Secondary Value: We’ll also want some shares of guys like Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte. They’ll all have the platoon advantage and that’s extremely key when a lefty is on the mound, especially one in Miley. Miley is dominant vs. lefties but can be beaten by righties.

MLB DFS Summary

Even though this is a Coor’s slate, we’ll have plenty of options tonight. There’s going to be lots of offense to go around.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/25 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/18 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,200)

Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.

Best GPP Value: Lance McCullers ($9,900)

I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,300)

Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.

GPP Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.

GPP Stack #2: Oakland Athletics

If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/11 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/31 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues to keep rack of other than a few daytime/evening storms in St. Louis (which could delay the start of MIN-STL but most likely won’t get serious enough for PPD) and possible pop-ups around Atlanta.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Darvish has struggled in July but he comes at a discount against a Colorado lineup that should have trouble hitting his pitch arsenal — especially the cutter. Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 7/31 Starting Rotation article that the Rockies are among the worst in the league (and registering a putrid -4.7 Pitch Value vs. wCT over the past 30 days). While the team’s swinging strike rate and K% has decreased over the past month or so, there’s stil a lot of K potential here for Darvish — who projects for the highest FD total tonight among the available SPs. I’m looking at a floor of around 30-35 FD points with upside around 45-50 if he can get the W and QS.

Best GPP Value: Joe Ross ($7,400)

The price on Ross, who hadn’t officially been named the SP for tonight’s game against the firesale-depleted Cubs as of 11 a.m. EST, is just way to low for his 45-50 point upside. The Cubs’ team K rate is probably on the rise, and that almost guarantees a 25-30 point floor for the Nats righty. I think both pitchers in this game can be moderately successful, but with the early absence of Ross in the available SPs (with the green box checked for “show only probably pitchers”) I could see MLB DFS ownership coming in way below what it should for good old JR. Hendricks is $200 more and doesn’t have the same upside, but I’ll use him in maybe 1/10 GPP lineups just to get some variance.

Contrarian GPP Play: Aaron Nola ($11,000)

While Yu Darvish is discounted on FanDuel, Nola is mispriced at just $9,700 on DK — so we could see the Phillies fireballer come in way at lower ownership than normal as the top-priced arm on FD. The strikeout potential is through the roof for Nola facing a Pirates team that struggles against his signature four-seamer, where he gets most of his Ks. On the surface, Nola’s price seems a bit high when compared to the overall numbers of both Brandon Woodruff ($200 cheaper on FD) and Darvish, so he makes for a fine MLB DFS GPP play that probably won’t eclipse 25 or 30% ownership. With some of the massive value that’s out there in our forthcoming stacks, it shouldn’t be a problem affording him.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Chicago White Sox

Both sides of this game could post monster offensive numbers, and while I like the Indians as a GPP stack, the White Sox offer the most safety in cash games and single-entry builds. Cleveland SP Triston McKenzie has some electric stuff, but he walks 6.37 batters per 9 IP and is carrying a 5.61/5.15 ERA/FIP heading into tonight’s matchup. The three most important MLB DFS hitters to roster are Tim Anderson ($3,600), Jose Abreu ($3,400) and Yoan Moncada ($2,900), who came alive last night (3-for-5 with a HR and two runs scored). Abreu got plunked in the helmet last night and that caused a near fracas, so he might be looking for revenge today with the boomstick. Keep an eye on the status of Eloy Jimenez ($3,300), who’s DTD to with a groin issue, and also consider Andrew Vaughn ($2,900).

Value Stack: New York Mets

The Mets are in a great spot tonight against southpaw Wade Miley, who they faced on July 20. I always like a second crack at the same starting pitcher within a two-week time frame, and Miley wasn’t exactly boasting his best stuff in his last start on July 26 (my birthday!). They’ve added Javier Baez ($3,400) to their lineup, and he’s exactly what they need (.410 wOBA vs. LHP) to supplement the potent bats of Pete Alonso ($3,800 — and an even better wOBA vs. LHP than Baez) and the value laden J.D. Davis ($2,800) and James McCann ($2,200). Keep an eye on the status of the still-cheap Brandon Nimmo ($2700 — DTD with a hamstring “pinch”) and whatever the new lineup looks like with Baez in the mix, and consider lefty Jeff McNeil ($2,700) if he’s starting, since he’s sporting a .330 wOBA vs. LHP.

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners aren’t a bunch that I get excited about stacking too often, but given the fact that they always fly under the radar and the smash spot some of these right-handed hitters are in for this matchup, I’m getting some exposure in GPPs. They immediately stood out when I looked at team totals and matchups for tonight and I as subsequently giddy to find out they were highlighted as the primary stack in Adam’s article (this could mean BIG GREEN SCREENS for WinDaily subscribers tonight)! I’m anchoring my stacks to Mitch Haniger ($3,400) and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP over his last 108 AB. Haniger has 10 HRs in those 108 AB and will be on all my SEA stacks. After that I’ll be mixing in three-man combinations among Ty France ($2,800), Luis Torrens ($2,600), Dylan Moore ($2,600), the recently acquired Abraham Toro ($2,500) and lefties Kyle Seager ($3,100) and leadoff hitter J.P Crawford ($2,500) — who both have wOBAs north of .300 against LHP.

One or more of that group might sit out tonight, so keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/5 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather concerns, but there’s a game in Coors with an 11.5 point total and two pitchers, one — LHP Kyle Freeland — with 7 BB in 8.0 IP so far this season and the other, visiting lefty SP Cole Irvin — with a .358 career road wOBA. It goes without saying to get exposure to this game, but we’ll give you some other options to consider.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

It’s hard to click any other name at SP on FD, even though Kevin Gausman’s last four starts (averaging 52.5 FD points and 9 K per game) have the edge on deGrom’s last four (43.25 FD points and 8 K per game). The Mets ace costs just $300 more than Gausman and boasts a very silly 1.53 xFIP, compared to a still-impressive 3.07 for the Giants RHP. I’ll have shares of both, but deGrom is still deGOAT.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

He’s much harder to trust than the big dogs, but Muskrat Joe (2.08 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 11.72 K/9 in 11 starts this season) is a dynamic pitcher who can break a slate. The salary savings allow you to get whatever Coors game stack you want, albeit with a much higher risk. There are definitely signs that regression is coming, as Musgrove’s .212 BABIP is a solid 80 percentage points lower than his career metric (.294), but I’m willing to ride out another start about this pesky DFS darling.

Contrarian GPP Play: Kevin Gausman ($11,200)

Gausman’s numbers are amazing this season, and as discussed earlier in the deGrom writeup, he’s on a helluva run with his K numbers. The Cubs strike out at a 25.2% team rate, a lot more than the Padres (21.1%), so I’m inclined to be overweight on Gausman in GPPs for the additional leverage, as deGrom should still earn more ownership. Again — pricing is pretty soft for some of the high-projected-total games, so the big spend SPs will make up about 90 percent of the ownership.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies vs. OAK LHP Cole Irvin

The A’s are a fine choice for top spot too, with Mark Canha ($4,200), Matt Chapman ($3,800), Matt Olson ($4,400)and Jed Lowrie ($3,600) being the obvious four-man stack at or near the top of the order. But they are pretty expensive, and they might be tough to fit in some cases with deGrom or Gausman up top. Canha is an impressive hitter who sees the ball well and makes for an amazing leadoff hitter in Coors, so I’ll haver some Colorado stacks that add on him as the primary one-off for OAK, and then find a three-man stack from another game for leverage. For the Rockies, I prefer C.J. Cron ($3,700), Charlie Blackmon ($3,900), Garrett Hampson ($3,300) and Joshua Fuentes ($3,400) against Irvin (who’s given up 24 hits over his last three starts), though there may be some other necessary value plays depending on who starts.

Value Stack: New York Yankees vs. BOS LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been very “gettable” in his last three starts, and while the Yankees strike out a lot, Yankee Stadium is getting hot and humid and the wind is blowing out to right center today, aiding some of those power righty bats in the Bronx. There’s loads of value and upside in rostering a three or four-man Yankees stack tonight, with D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000), Aaron Judge ($3,600) and Gleyber Torres ($2,900) as my three favorite “spends” and Gio Urshela ($2,500), Gary Sanchez ($2,400) and Clint Frazier ($2,300) clocking in with serious bargain prices.

Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. SEA LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi has been okay in 2021, but he hasn’t been missing as many bats in his last few starts, opening himself up for a possible letdown against the home team Angels and their parade of right-handed power bats, including Justin Upton ($3,000), Anthony Rendon ($3,200) and Taylor Ward. ($2,600) And there’s obviously Shohei Ohtani ($4,000), whose metrics against LHP are a bit down in ’21. But $2K punts Phil Gosselin ($2,000) and Juan Lagares ($2,000) are in play (if they play) tonight, as Gosselin boasts great numbers vs. LHP (.460 wOBA in 26 AB this season)

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/29 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

It’s another busy day for weather, but initial forecasts project only one game on the main slate that could be impacted: ATL @NYM — which they should be able to get in with a late start and under a light, steady rain.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($11,500)

Ownership is going to be heavily weighted toward Urias, who’s the obvious choice in cash games. He’s got the most upside of any pitcher on the slate and easily boasts the highest floor because of the matchup. With four 50+ FD point performances among his last seven starts, Urias is coming into his own as a reliable fantasy starter after being brought slowly along by the Dodgers in his first few seasons in the big leagues. The Giants have a team K% of 26.2% — seventh highest in MLB — and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites in this four-game slate. Don’t overthink this one. Urias should be a lock for your cash games and in the majority of your GPP lineups.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($9,000)

For whatever reason, Ian Anderson’s weekly start for Atlanta almost always lands on a Saturday night, which is just fine with me considering he’s my favorite young pitcher in baseball for selfish reasons: he’s from about a half-hour away in upstate New York’s Capital Region, and is probably the best pitcher to some out of this area in decades. Pitching in a steady rain should be a familiar thing for a guy from just north of Albany, NY. The talented hurler didn’t issue a walk or accumulated any earned runs in his last start en route to 46 FanDuel points — a perfectly viable number given the difficulty this slate presents for pitching options. While the Mets don’t strike out at a particularly high rate, they do have one of the league’s most feeble team wOBA marks — just .291. Compare that to what the Braves lineup offers — a /327 team wOBA — and you’ve got a recipe for another victory and 35-45 FD points.

Contrarian GPP Value: Mike Foltynewicz ($7,100)

This makes two SP options on tonight’s slate with WinDaily narratives. While I don’t know my area’s local product (Anderson) personally, Nick Bretwisch is buddies with Mike Foltynewicz (it’s a Minooka, Illinois thing) and he’s continually come through with the best spots to deploy Folty in our MLB DFS builds. On FanDuel tonight, he’s more of a large-field GPP contrarian play, since his K totals are a little lower this season. The silver lining, however, is in the opponent’s propensity to strike out. The Mariners have a team K% of 26.2% — sixth highest in baseball this season — and they sport the second-lowest team wOBA (.285) against RHP. If you’re hell-bent on jamming in the most expensive bats on the slate and/or want to get a little crazy at SP, Folty has some modest upside vs,. SEA.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. ARI RHP Seth Frankoff

Only two teams in yesterday’s slate scored more runs than the Cards, who beat the D-Backs 8-6 and helped secure a lot of green screens for folks that trusted they’d easily handle LHP Madison Bumgarner. Today they face a right-hander, but it’s a guy with considerably less major-league experience in Frankoff, who has just 13.1 IP under his belt in MLB. Frankoff is a 32-year-old journeyman who spent some time in Korea and is with his fifth major-league organization — a sign he’s not missing a whole lot of bats at this level. The Cards should be able to take advantage of his 6.46 FIP with their usual array of potent bats, including Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100), Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Dylan Carlson (underpriced at just $2,200) and Tyler O’Neill ($3,000) — who went deep last night and boasts a .370 wOBA and nine HR vs. RHP over his last 88 big league AB. I also like switch-hitting leadoff hitter Tommy Edman ($2,700) and there’s also an opportunity to do a full game stack here and run back some bats from Arizona: Josh Rojas ($2,300), Carson Kelly ($3,200), Ketel Marte ($3,300), David Peralta ($2,500), Pavin Smith ($2,600) and Eduardo Escobar ($2,700) are all woefully mispriced for this slate.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. SFG RHP Logan Webb

It’s bizarre to see the Dodgers listed as a value stack, but after you get past the high-priced bats of Mookie Betts ($3,900) and Max Muncy ($3,600), there’s a couple lefty hitters we can target for their value (Gavin Lux at $2,600 and upside-laden Matt Beaty at just $2,100) along with Justin Turner ($2,900), Chris Turner ($3,100) and Will Smith ($2,900). The Dodgers projected team run total is actually right around what the D-Backs are expected, so I’ll probably make a balance four-man stacks of each team (and some 2 LAD +2 ARI builds) against my four-man Cards stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Texas Rangers vs. SEA RHP Justin Dunn

Tonight might be a really good night to experiment with low-stakes multi-entry GPP and leaving some money on the table, which means we can use some combination of Rangers 1-5 hitters in a few stacks with Dunn on the mound for Seattle. Dunn’s 3.40 ERA belies an xFIP of 5.76 — good news for guys like Willie Calhoun ($3,000), Nate Lowe ($2,900), Adolis Garcia ($4,300) and Joey Gallo ($3,200). Brock Holt ($2,500) has excellent numbers vs. RHP as well. The price tag and RHP vs. RHB matchup for Garcia might scare some folks away, but he makes for a great one-off even if you’re not stacking the Rangers, with a .400 wOBA, a .330 ISO and nine HR in less than 100 AB vs. RHP. Whatever you plan on doing, I’d include some of these Rangers bats in my GPP builds at what could be relatively low ownership even on a slate this small.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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