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PGA DFS Picks: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this PGA DFS picks column, we’re looking for all the right team at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and helping you navigate this team event!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Solid field of 160 golfers (80 teams)
Eight players out of the world top 20 teeing it up this week
Only one teammate per team is allowed on your DK lineup
36-hole Cut: Top 35 teams and ties play the weekend
2019 champion: Jon Rahm/Ryan Palmer
The course: TPC Louisiana (Pete Dye design)
- Par 72: 7,425 yards
- Small TifEagle Bermuda greens
- Iron play again an emphasis at these tough par 4s
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $11,000 and up):

Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,700) – I doubt these golfers will find much trouble off the tee and they look like the best combo of ball-striking and ability to capitalize on opportunities. Cantlay hasn’t played well recently, but in a team event, it’s easy to throw that out and look at the fact that both of these players are in the OWGR Top 10, and have the most combined talent in the field.

John Rahm/Ryan Palmer (DK $11,700) – They mastered this format last year, and Ryan Palmer lines up as a good proximity golfer from outside 200 yards (he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour). Combine their past success with Rahm’s overall talent and ability and you could have another winning combo in New Orleans. They’re a solid play in all formats.

Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith (DK $11,100) – These two were President’s Cup teammates and they both play the same ball – which is a bonus when they get to alternate stroke team play. Smith has shown an affinity for Pete Dye course and ranks fifth in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana, where he was a part of the winning team in 2017 alongside Jonas Blixt. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities every day for this team, which has a shot at winning.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa/Matthew Wolff (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $9,500 to $10,900):

Scottie Scheffler/Bubba Watson (DK $10,900) – I have no doubts about the team chemistry with these two birdie-makers, and while Watson has struggled in recent weeks, he’s a team player who seems to be more at ease when he’s outside his head. Scheffler’s ability to provide ample scoring opportunities will be a welcome sight for Bubba.

Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett (DK $10,300) – The English pair complement each other’s games quite well, with Hatton’s ball-striking and Willett’s putting possibly providing a winning combination of skill sets. I may not be overweight on the field if they get popular, but I’ll have shares.

Chris Kirk/Brendan Todd (DK $10,100) – A team that might end up making my single entry GPP lineups, Kirk/Todd (we can call them the UGA connection as former Georgia Bulldogs) should make the cut and give us some possible upside if they can get hot with the putters. They’ll be in play on these holes and we know Todd likes the small Bermuda greens and these types of “short-game forward” setups.

Max Homa/Talor Gooch (DK $9,900) – Both players can make birdies in bunches and that’s a good thing in team play. It’ll be easier to avoid big numbers that plague these golfers occasionally, and the sub-$10K tag is alluring in such a tight pricing format. The team fares well in combined models and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.

Victor Hovland/Kristoffer Ventura (DK $9,700) – They played together at Oklahoma State and a quick review of the metrics indicates another complementary pairing here. Hovland ranks at or near the top of the field in SG:OTT, Opps Gained and BoB%, while Ventura is one of the better putters on tour, ranking well overall and on Bermuda. This could be a sneaky team.

Also consider: Tony Finau/Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel/Sam Burns

Value PGA DFS (DK $8,000 to $9,400):

Brendan Steele/Keegan Bradley (DK $9,300) – Steele is the better putter and longer driver, and Bradley the better ball-striker, and Steele had a Top 10 at this event in 2018. It’s not an exciting team, but one that might be lingering come Sunday and make a run at a Top 5.

Thomas Pieters/Tom Lewis (DK $9,200) –Another EURO connection that combines experience and form (Pieters) with birdie-making and motivation (Lewis). Lewis wants his PGA Tour card and Pieters is motivated in his own right – looking for a spot on the Ryder Cup team. Sia had them in his initial picks and I’m firmly aboard this pairing as well.

Lucas Glover/Chez Reavie (DK $8,800) – I’m most worried about this group’s putting statistics, which lag far behind the ball-striking metrics, but that tends to get mitigated a bit in team events, when two heads are usually better than one of reading putts and bouncing back from the bad holes.

Jason Kokrak/Pat Perez (DK $8,300) – Both of these golfers are PGA Tour “nice guys” who have had mixed results in 2020-21, with Perez hitting a bit of a plateau and Kokrak breaking through with his first PGA Tour win in October. If DK gave out points for good vibes, they’d be priced even higher, but I’m loving the discount in the value range.

Cameron Tringale/Roberto Castro (DK $8,000) – Tringale, who’s had a solid 2020-21 season, is third on my model and while Roberto Castro struggles with consistent play, he’s No. 18 in the field for SG:APP at this golf course. I’m liking the price and upside, but it’s risky in single-entry GPP.

More value golfers to consider: Louis Oosthuizen/Charl Schwartzel, Erik van Rooyen/Wyndham Clark, Kevin Kisner/Scott Brown, Doug Ghim/Justin Suh

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $7,900 and under):

Matthew NeSmith/Chase Seiffert (DK $7,500) – This team will be very chalky, and they seem to be mispriced considering the talent level. They’re on a bit of a pricing island and seem to be one of the only exciting options between $7-8K.

Richy Werenski/Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – I’m glad that Joel brought these two (and Michael Thompson/Will Gordon) up in the Breakdown. Both teams caught my eye looking for cheap options that have upside, and I like the ability of Werenski/Uihlein to make a bunch of birdies in best ball and outperform their affordable salary.

Scott Piercy/Ashkay Bhatia (DK $6,900) – It’s kind of an off-the-wall play considering the differing general makeup of these two golfers, but they could surprise some folks in the first couple of days, when they seem to play their best golf. The opportunities should be there, and Piercy won with Horschel in 2018, so they’re worth a look in GPPs.

Bo Hoag/Wes Roach (DK $6,300) – It’s a dart throw for sure,because neither of these players is known for their consistency, but Hoag projects well for this golf course on the mixed model (No. 36 overall) and Roach ranks No. 22 in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana.

Additional GPP punts: Michael Thompson/Will Gordon (GPP), Sepp Straka/Josh Teator, Tom Hoge/Beau Hossler (GPP), Roger Sloan/Aaron Baddeley, James Hahn/Martin Trainer

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Enormous, elite field of 154 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
No 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)
The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye design
- Par 72 (7,189 yards)
- Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf course
- Plays longer in March than it did in May
- Bermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialis
- Look for big scoring spreads like at Bay Hill
- Wind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill
6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.

Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.

Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.

Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.

Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.

More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie Hughes

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.

Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.

Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong invitational field of 123 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)
- Par 72 (7,466 yards)
- Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in play
- Played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last year
- Pressure golf at its most demanding
- Bermuda greens and fairways
Wind could play a factor this week, rain expected Saturday
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.

Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.

Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.

Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.

Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.

Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

4 years ago 0 comments

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Insight Sheet: 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Inside is my player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for over...

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Invitational

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re hot on the trail of some lucrative PGA DFS picks, looking for a big payday at the Genesis Invitational and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Reduced, elite invitational field of 120 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Adam Scott (-11)
The course: Riviera Country Club (Pacific Palisades, CA)
- Par 71, 7,300+ yards
- Redesigned by Tom Fazio in 2008
- Hard-to-hit fairways and greens, but everybody knows what to expect here
- Kikuyu fairways and rough can make for tough sledding in bad lies
- Old, quirky design with doglegs and a driveable but difficult 315-yard Par 4 (Hole #10)
- FAST Poa annua greens – three putts will abound
Sunny but cool weather (course will play longer in the mornings) this week
Wind expected around 7-10 MPH first two days, then blowing a bit harder
Recent (West Coast) form an important factor at Riviera
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – DJ has a solid course history (he ran away with the event in 2017 with a -17 score, five strokes clear of Thomas Pieters) and he is the betting favorite with ownership expected around 15-20 percent. One way to approach that in GPPs is by doubling the expected field ownership – a strategy I used last week with Patrick Cantlay.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – Thomas won’t be as popular as usual this week in GPPs, but he’s second in my model and he almost won here in 2019 – choking away his shot at victory with a four-over-par 75 in the final round. JT actually missed the cut here last season, so there are some bad vibes he’d like to exorcise. I’ll definitely have shares, but he’s almost a contrarian play this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory debuted at the Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale with a somewhat disappointing T13 and has nine consecutive top 25s. The troublesome part is that his last win came in November 2019 at the WGC-HSBC, so he’s a risky play at this price point. Perhaps his consecutive Top 5 finishes at Riviera and ability to both avoid bogeys and gain strokes off the tee (tops in the field in both categories) will allow for a breakthrough win.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahmbo drives it well, is a maestro on and around the green, and has been less affected by bad breaks as he matures. Let’s remember – the Spaniard is still just 26 years old, a fact that makes his failure to notch more than one Top 5 (T2 at the ZOZO in October) since September a bit more palatable. What he does have is six straight Top 15 finishes since his T23 at the U.S. Open, and the ability to win at just about any event.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,100) – If there’s a course that favors Bryson the Beefy Big Boy, his aggressive lines, bomb-and-gouge style and arm-lock putting style, it’s Riviera – because he’s still pretty decent around the greens and the ultra-fast Poa Annua could favor his ability to get the ball on the right line. He may not be the best cash game play because he’s still pretty volatile and he can let a few bogeys and bad shots get the better of him but taking a stand with him at 30-40% in GPPs could really pay off this week.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,900) – Schauffele (No. 10 on my mixed model) arrives with consecutive T2 finishes at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale and is a California kid playing in an event that favors high-performing West Coast swing golfers. He’s a near lock for cash games and single-entry tournaments and I’ll have plenty of shares (shooting for around 25-30 percent to stay ahead of the field) in large field GPPs.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay (Cash), Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – Finau could almost be a better cash game play than GPP this week, because he’s a great course fit who has made three straight cuts at Riviera – including a T2 in 2018 – and he usually sucks in the final round. We know he can burn us, but he’s No. 8 on my model because of his strength T2G, only lacking in the short game components and closing the deal on Sundays.

Adam Scott (DK $9,000) – The Aussie is a relatively safe play in all formats and I won’t talk you off including his in single entry – but he’s struggled to finish in the Top 10 (his T10 at Torrey Pines is his first since his two-shot victory here last year in a similarly strong field. That win came after a furious comeback that saw his make up eight shots over the last three rounds. Scott likes it here – he has six top 10s in 12 starts and is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader, according to PGATour.com.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – Bubba is a course horse and a great narrative this week (go read the recent PGA Tour article about his struggles with mental illness), so I’m grabbing a few shares in GPPs and hopefully coming in around the field number. He’s a “self-taught, highly visual” player (and No. 25 on my model) who has won here twice despite his volatility and tendency to make a few bogeys.

Max Homa (DK $8,200) – Homa’s game is really rounding into form (five straight made cuts after his MC at the Masters) and he’s starting to seem more comfortable on the leaderboard – something that could come in handy in this tough field. My model isn’t in love with him (his T2G and ARG game don’t crack the Top 100), but he’s a local resident who finished T7 at Pebble Beach last week and notched a personal-best T5 at Riviera last year, so I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he might make my single-entry GPP when it’s all said and done.

Kevin Na (DK $7,900) – Na is the prototypical GPP play this week on a course where he’s had lots of success (T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017) and a few dismal outcomes (MCs in 2015 and 2020). His Top 5 upside makes him a superb tournament option at this price point, and his 2021 form (a win at the Sony Open in January and a T21 in his last start in a EURO event at the Saudi International, keeps my confidence high enough to roster him in this tough field.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,800) – I know that his high ownership is going to scare folks off – Joel and Sia both talked about it in the breakdown video, but I still like his chance at a Top 10 here and might just try to outpace the field by locking him into a third of my large-field GPP lineups. Just be conscious of his ownership this week and know that everyone (and their mothers) will be on him.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – Joel brought up my bae Fitzy in the breakdown, and while the wispy Englishman is not popping on my model and he hasn’t played the West Coast swing, there’s plenty to like about his short game and what he could do at a second try at Riviera (T30 in his debut last year). He’s not a long hitter, but he likes super-fast greens and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys – which could keep him in contention if he can avoid the one bad round that sometimes plagues him.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Cameron Smith, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Tringale

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

James Hahn (DK $7,500) – Hahn checks a few boxes this week, from his West Coast form to his excellent course history at Riviera and inclusion in the Top 50 of my model. As long as ownership doesn’t eclipse 10%, he’ll make about 1/5 (or more) of my GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $7,400) – A big hitter with the tee ball game and lots of scoring upside, Burns is a dynamic player who’s fared well on the West Coast and hasn’t missed a cut since a disappointing performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. If he can scramble a little better than usual this week, he could contend.

Luke List (DK $7,300) – Both Sia and I are drawn to List and his dynamic game, and he’s shown an affinity for this venue despite some periodic struggles where good golf seems to somehow allude him. The long-hitting tour veteran has made four of his last five cuts here highlighted by three straight top 30 finishes, and he’s No. 23 on my mixed model – good enough to make a handful of my 20 max lineups and one or two large-field GPPs like the one on DK that pays $300K to the winner.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,200) – His last Top 10 was a T2 at last year’s Genesis Invitational, and the rest of his record here is pretty impressive. But last year’s finish came after a T16 at the Waste Management and T38 at Pebble Beach, so there was some form to consider. I can’t possibly recommend enormous shares of Kuchar this week, but he’s an elite scrambler and he could make for a decent fit in a lineup where you’re rostering DJ, DeChambeau and a bunch of guys around $7K.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,100) – K.H. has a great track record at Riviera and is somehow staying under the radar and 10% ownership despite a T2 at the Waste Management Open a couple of weeks ago – a tournament where he made just five bogeys in four days. There’s reasonable Top 10 upside this week despite the affordable price, and he’s got a good shot at making my big-money (for me) single-entry GPP team.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The WinDaily golf writer group text discussion kicked off this week with some Reavie talk, and I was immediately intrigued. This may be the precise moment to jump on him and ride him for a few events, because it’s all about timing with a low-owned Chez – who can have stretches of solid play and is coming off a T16 at Pebble Beach. The season stats are somewhat unimpressive, but he’s an excellent ball striker who’s had two top 10s in his last five tries at Riviera – two of the other three being missed cuts. Last year’s T10 here was on the heels of a T25 finish at the AT&T, and he just cracks the Top 50 of my model this week.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900) – Sia loves him for one good round, and Joel loves him for his sexy first name, but Dahmen’s game is pretty solid all-round and he’s finished T5 here last year, which was tied for his best finish of 2020 (the other being a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational). I won’t have big shares, but 10 percent of my GPPs will keep me way ahead of the field and allow for some leverage if he puts together three good rounds and posts a Top 25.

Michael Thompson (DL $6,700) – Thompson did have a MC at the Waste Management sandwiched between a T5 at the AMEX and a solid-enough T34 at Pebble Beach last week, but he’s a solid value play in a price range that usually doesn’t feature much Top 10 upside – which Thompson flashed at this very event with a T7 in 2019. The model isn’t farting out roses when it comes to Mr. T, but there’s a case to be made for his low-owned keister in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Talor Gooch (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Matthew NeSmith, Charles Howell (Cash), Harold Varner III, Brandon Grace (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Scott Piercy

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – Kang has been bad in 2021, but he wasn’t exceptional in 2020 when he posted a T2 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s a super high risk play only suited for 1/20 studs-and-scrubs GPPs, but that’s right around where his ownership will be because of he hasn’t missed a cut here.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – Stuard is my favorite play under $6,500, and that’s mainly because he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 25 last year, his form is decent (made cut in Phoenix and T16 at Pebble Beach last week) and he’s really good around the greens. He’s probably not gaining many strokes off the tee this week, but the T2G numbers are okay and he’s super cheap.

Pat Perez (DK $6,400) – Perez has had a rough 2021 but he’s trending up with a T26 last week and there’s plenty of correlation between Pebble and Riviera to weigh that more heavily than the four straight missed cuts in October-November. Conversely, he’s MADE four straight cuts in the Genesis and should fly under the radar this week.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,300) – I think Hubbard is mispriced at just $6,300 this week, because he’s very strong out of the gate (with opening rounds of 63 and 66 in his last two events) and has made seven of his last nine cuts. Perhaps he’s best used in first-round lineups or as a prop bet for low round of day, but I’m going to mix him into my GPPs. He hasn’t played here since 2017 but snuck under the cutline in his only two attempts.

Additional punt options: J.B. Holmes (GPP), Jim Furyk, Denny McCarthy (GPP), C.T. Pan, Jimmy Walker (GPP)

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (or No-Am)

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 156 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Nick Taylor (-19)
The courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) & Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
- PB: Par 72, 7,051 yards; SH: Par 72, 7,041
- Course comps similar to last two: Torrey Pines and Scottsdale
- No third course, no amateurs this year
- Poa annua greens
- Iron and wedge play, short game (chipping & putting) most important because of short par 4s and small greens
- 6/6 golfers making the cut will be harder this week with larger field
- Wind also a factor on these coastal courses (it’ll blow harder on the weekend), and weather looks bad this week (55-50 degrees with showers possible)
Recent winners include some scrubs and veterans (Taylor, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter in 2018)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 350-400, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-150

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,300) – A California native who is No. 1 on my model (Dustin Johnson was No. 2 but he WD), Cantlay checks all the boxes this week and LOVES this putting surface (my model ranks him at No. 75 SG:P overall, but No. 19 on Poa over his last 100 rounds). He’s got a single-digit ranking in six of my 10 focus stats, and he’s far and away my favorite to win. I can’t find a reason to fade him – ownership be damned – so I’m considering a 100 percent lock button in GPPs and I’ll wait for Sia or Joel to talk some sense into me.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Berger is the better option of the other two golfers priced above $10K this week, the other being Paul Casey and his ice-cold putter. We can use Berger in all formats, including cash, although there may be a way to get Cantlay and plenty of other consistent cut-makers in there without breaking the bank. There’s no real weakness to Berger’s game and he only ranks higher than 33rd in one category: Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – Last week was an important one for Spieth, because he found himself in contention on Sunday. Now he’s back on a course where he’s won and that shares more than a passing resemblance to the kind of second-shot courses he excels on. He’ll be popular in all formats, so I may choose to fade him in single-entry GPPs for leverage.

Jason Day (DK $9,500) – His resume at Pebble Beach (11-for-11 with nine Top 15s) is the best in the field outside 50-year-old Mickelson, and despite two missed cuts in his last two tournaments, he does have two Top 15s since the start of November. We saw Brooks Koepka find his magic last week after a couple of MCs, and we know that he and Day share more than a few similarities as dogged competitors.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,900) – Streelman notched a T22 last week with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s got a sparkling record at Pebble Beach (three straight top 10s including a solo second last year), and he’s No. 6 in my model. I’ll be using him as a staple in my single entry, though I imagine he’ll be popular as the “almost too good to be true” pick of the week.

Max Homa (DK $8,800) – Homa isn’t quite as attractive as Streelman at this price in the mid-range, but he does have some upside at this venue (T14 and T10 in his last two tries here) and his birdie-making ability and prowess on Par 5s puts him in the GPP conversation. I’ll have some exposure, but there’s no reason to go all-in.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,700) – You can’t argue with Norlander’s recent results (T12-T2-T22 in his last three events), but the best he’s finished at the AT&T is a T25 last year. It’s very possible he’s figured something out (SG:APP is No. 12 in the field) and we know he likes this Par 4 distance and approaches from 125-150. Norlander could get popular for his recent play, but as long as he’s not over 15 percent we should be okay.

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,600) – On courses over 7,100 yards I wouldn’t consider playing Lefty in a field this size, but he’s notched three straight top-three finishes at the AT&T, including a win in 2019, and there’s just no reason to assume that he’s not coming here to win again. His ownership appears to be holding at under 10%, and he knows these courses like the back of his hand. Why not?

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,500) – Tringale is popping at third overall on my model, though I’ve seen that happen before in events where he’s missed the cut. I’m a little worried about how his talents translate to closing on Sunday, and he’s struggled at Pebble Beach in the past, with only one top 50 in his last four tries. Far from a cash gameplay, I’ll have some shares in GPPs because he should play well here eventually.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $8,000) – My boy Rusty LOVES NeSmith, but he didn’t get into any PGS DFS action last week so he missed out on Matthew’s T7 finish. The model doesn’t hate NeSmith this week (No. 51 overall), and he debuted here last season with a T11, but the biggest concern is how his less-than-stellar short game will handle these small greens.

Russell Knox (DK $7,800) – Knox has two top 15s at this event in the last three years and ranks very well in SG: APP (No. 6 in the field) when the wind is blowing moderately or harder. We know his putter can let him down, but I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs at this affordable price. Knox looks even better to me when I think about the conditions: he’s got a fine draw and he’s solid in this windy/rainy stuff.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,600) – McNealy loves the poa annua surface and seems to fare well when he’s hitting greens – a true GPP-only birdie-maker if there ever was one, but his approach game from 100-150 leaves much to be desired. Still – if the putter can get going and he can re-live some of the magic of last years’ T5 at this event, the sky’s the limit.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Sam Burns, Cameron Davis (GPP), Brendan Steele (GPP), Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman, Matt Jones (GPP), Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner III, Nick Taylor

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Stallings isn’t an exciting play, but he’s a veteran grinder who likes the event (solo third in 2018 and solo seventh in 2017) and he’s right around the cutline in my model this week. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,400) – The model loves Furyk and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Like Mickelson, this is a course that favors his strengths and he’s far from finished on the Tour. The absurdly low price is a welcome invitation for any format.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore is somehow at No. 4 on my model, but is form is awful and the course record doesn’t inspire me much. I’d restrict him to multi-entry GPP and low exposure at that, but he’s on my radar. He gets a little weather bump for his decent numbers on windy coastals.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – Higgs played well in his AT&T debut last year (T18) and we know he can get it done on the greens. He’s not the best ball-striker but he fares on week on Par 4s this distance and he’s a wild card play.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,100) – The conditions this week could favor a golfer like Piercy, who’s played well at this venue in the past three seasons (all top 20s with a T10 in 2019). There’s no reason to lock him into all your lineups – but get some exposure to this tour vet and thank (or curse me out) later.

Brian Gay (DK $6,600) – Once we get under $7K, the pickings are slim, but Gay is one of my go-to GPP punts – a guy with enormous winning upside despite regularly posting terrible results. A poor man’s Brandt Snedeker without the elite short game, he just seems to love playing here and on courses with small greens – with five straight made cuts in the AT&T and two top 10s in his last three tries here.

More value golfers to consider: Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Michael Thompson (GPP), Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Armour, Chesson Hadley (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt (GPP), Kevin Chappell

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,500) – He’s No. 67 on my model, and while his upside is far lower than a guy like Brian Gay, he’s made his last two cuts and has shown glimpses of decent golf. He also finished in the top 35 here last season so I may mix him into one or two of my 20 max GPPs.

Nick Watney (DK $6,200) – The situation under $6,500 is pretty dire, but Watney stands out as a player who’s had success here in the past (solo second place in 2015 and T14 in 2017) and despite eight straight missed cuts, he’s No. 21 on my model this week. I’m a little freaked out by it, but I may work him into 1/10 large-field GPPs.

Additional punt options: Rob Oppenheim, Grayson Murray, Jimmy Walker, Vincent Whaley, Chris Baker, Matt Every

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 132 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
The courses: TPC Scottsdale
- Par 71 – 7,261 yards
- Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
- Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
- Fast Bermuda greens
6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: Farmers Insurance Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Farmers Insurance open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong, full field of 152 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Marc Leishman (-15)
The courses: Torrey Pines North (one of first two rounds) & South (three rounds of four)
- Both Par 72 (North: 7,258 South: 7,698 yards)
- Coastal courses so wind/elements are a factor
- South course is tougher, and a long driver helps
- Harder-to-hit greens
- North: Bentgrass greens; South: Poa Annua greens
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Driving Distance, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4s: 450-500

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Rahm’s sore back kept him out of the AMEX last week, but that’s about the only thing keeping me from clicking his name as a lock in all my lineups. He’s got a win (2017) along with a couple top five finishes here, has the all-around game to win again, and he’s second on my mixed model behind only Tony Finau. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from even going lock button, 100-percent Rahm, and he’ll be the core of my single-entry lineups.

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,000) – Initial ownership projections have McIlroy coming in under Rahm and Finau, but he’s priced with them and has top five finishes in both his visits. Sia likes him and will talk more about it in his livestream tonight, and McIlroy is tops in three very important focus stat categories: SG:APP, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. Rory occasionally has decent missed cut equity compared to the rest of the big names, but these courses and the possibility of some difficult conditions should play to his strengths.

Tony Finau (DK $10,700) – Finau is coming off a solo fourth last week (-19, four strokes behind the winner) and his track record here is solid, with five straight top 20s (but only one top five). Because he’s priced up so high and always struggles to actually win golf tournaments, he might be best used in cash. Finau could get really chalky in GPPs, so it might be a good time to fade him over the two guys above.

Xander Schauffele (DK $10,400) – Schauffele’s best pro finish here (his home course in high school, ironically) is a T25 in 2018 (surrounded by a bunch of missed cuts), but there’s nothing in the mixed model to suggest he shouldn’t play well here – aside from a minor dip when it comes to SG:P, where he’s 68th in the field. His excuse is that he’s been “consistently” sick when it’s time to tee it up at Torrey Pines, but with a COVID-19 diagnosis and recovery out of the way, maybe he’s finally ready to play well here.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Harris English (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff is the type of fearless golfing talent who could fare quite well at Torrey Pines with his length, and his T21 in last year’s debut run speaks to his ability to adjust well to a challenge. The biggest concern is how Wolff will rebound if he’s missing the Poa Annua greens (he’s No. 131 in the filed in SG:ARG). He’s definitely got the ball-striking and ability to thrive on this surface – it’s just a matter of avoiding some bad bounces and keeping his head on straight.

Marc Leishman (DK $8.700) – The form is good (T4 at the Sony Open) and he’s the defending champion at Torrey Pines – so he’ll be in plenty of my builds. I’m more than a little concerned about rostering a chalky Marc Leishman, but he’s projected closer to 10 percent, which means I could stomach using him in about 1/5 GPPs and even a low-cost single-entry.

Jason Day (DK $8,600) – Day hasn’t played since a T12 at the RSM Classic in mid-November, but that could be a good thing – as his troublesome back may have benefited from the layoff. If we get word that Day (No. 8 in my mixed model) is looking healthy in the practice rounds, I’ve got no problem using him in GPPs and hoping his ownership stays down.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,400) – Palmer is 3/3 with a T2 here during the 2017-18 season, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open. The form is decent and he’s No. 7 in my model this week. Best deployed in cash games, he might get chalky in tournaments – so I’ll either be all-in (single entry lock and 50 percent ownership in GPPs) or trying to come in around the field in MMEs.

Adam Scott (DK $8,300) – Scott is another darling of my model this week, and he’s priced very affordably for a man who finished solo second in the 2019 Farmers (Justin Rose was -21, two strokes better than Scott’s -19). The tour veteran can struggle with has flatstick, but a solid ball-striking veteran like Accurate Adam can get hot enough knocking down flagsticks as that it doesn’t matter.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,900) – I was all over him last week, but once an unlucky flagstick strike that caromed back into the water turned a birdie into a quadruple bogey, his confidence was shot. Back on a course where his gargantuan length off the tee could be a huge advantage, I’m jumping back aboard in GPPs – but he’s way too risky for cash.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,600) –Gooch actually finished T3 in the aforementioned 2019 Farmers and he’s popping on my models (No. 11 overall). A T21 last week and a couple Top 5s since October help contribute to my interest in this straight hitter who fares ell in many of the focus stat categories.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Si Woo Kim (cash), Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel (GPP), Cameron Davis, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,500) – This would be a form play, as Ortiz has missed two straight cuts here and is only No. 67 on my model. Sia is with me on the inherent risk, but we both like him for his upside.

Charles Howell (DK $7,500) – A cash game staple this week, Howell has a solid Torrey Pines resume and is a fine play in all formats, as hi ownership may stay low coming off a MC at the AMEX.

Max Homa (DK $7,400) – Homa seems to be shaping up since a rough fall schedule, he finished T9 here last season, and he’s No. 38 overall in my model. Too risky for cash but worth a look in GPPs.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,200) – Ghim is a WinDaily favorite and one of the best single-round performers on tour. A T20 here in 2019 and his T5 last week make me interested in large-field GPPs – so hopefully his ownership stays low.

John Huh (DK $7,000) – Consistently good at this venue, Huh has three top 25 finishes over his past three months (including a top 15) and he’s been gaining strokes on the field at an alarming rate (5.7) over his last five tournaments. The price is just too low.

Brandt Snedeker ($7,000) – Stay away in cash and single-entry, but keep an eye on Snedeker for his performance at this venue and ability to putt and scramble himself onto the leaderboard. Sneds has missed three straight cuts but he’s 5-for-5 here since 2016.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,900) – Higgs finished T9 in 2020 at Torrey Pines and his ownership should stay around 5% or lower this week. He’s a longshot to win or even finish in the Top 10 again, but there is some upside here in this price range.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – He’s not the best ball striker in the field and there are plenty of obstacle to him finishing in the Top 15, but he made the cut here in 2019 after a rocky debut the previous year and he crept into the Top 40 of my model. With a 1-2% projected ownership, I’m comfortable using him in one or two of my 20 max entry GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Alex Noren (GPP), Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge (GPP), Luke List, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Richy Werenski (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,500) – This is not the land of sure things, so do not hit the lock button with NeSmith – who made the cut here last year in his debut and finished T30. For that, he’s a 1/20 option in large field GPPs.

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,400) – McCumber is actually No. 20 in my model, which was a pleasant surprise in looking for low-cost options in this range. He made the cut last week and like NeSmith, played well in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, finishing T21 with Will Gordon.

Will Gordon (DK $6,300) – Well, what do you know? The long-hitting Gordon is $100 cheaper than McCumber but doesn’t get any love from my model this week (No. 105 overall). If I play McCumber in 2/20 GPPs, I’ll use Gordon in one.

Additional punt options: Robbie Shelton, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler (GPP)

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The American Express

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the American Express and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weaker, full field of 156 golfers (no Pro-Am this year)
Cut: 36 holes (instead of the venue’s usual 54), Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Andrew Landry (-25)
The courses: PGA West in Palm Springs, CA (TPC Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament)
- Both Par 72 (7,100-7,300 yards)
- Reachable Par 5s and plenty of scoring
- Rough not too penal, some wind expected
- Bermuda greens, lots of sand and water
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – I’ve said many times that I’d never again roster Finau – but that’s an attitude antithetical to winning DFS play. The 31-year-old tour veteran ranks seventh in the field in BoB gained and 12th in SG:OTT. If you’re fading the Patricks (Reed and Cantlay) and don’t want to go near Brooks Koepka, Finau is a great guy to get behind in the top tier.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,900) – My model loves Im (second overall behind Russell Henley), and there’s no particular area where this hardworking tour grinder’s game suffers. While Henley’s had his struggles at this venue (1/4), Sungjae is 2-for-2 with a T10 and T12. He’s a fine play in all formats.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – It’ll be interesting to see how much cash game love Wolff gets this week, considering he missed the cut in his first try at PGA West last season, but there’s really no reason to fade him in GPPs. His talent and ability to record birdies in bunches makes him a top play.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,500) – Scheffler debuted at this tournament with a solo third place finish, he’s No. 15 on my model, and he’s even better than Finau in the aforementioned two categories (No. 3 in SG:OTT and No. 5 in BoB%) that are big strengths here. In a field without too many big names, Scheffler’s looms large.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Na (DK $9.200) – Na isn’t the kind of golfer we like to rely on for consistency, but his track record at this event is impressive: 6/6 with two top 20s since 2014. Last week’s champ might see his ownership spike considerably from last week, but he makes for an affordable cash game option who I’ll mix into a few GPPs.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9.100) – Ancer likes the venue and despite a few putting hiccups and his inability to close out tournaments, the price makes plenty of sense for Accurate Abe. He’s placed better each of the times he’s teed it up in Palm Springs, and a breakthrough win is only a hot putter away.

Cameron Champ (DK 8,900) – I haven’t heard a ton of chatter about Champ in a while, and that means it might be time to get aboard; he’s a player with all the talent in the world to rip this course apart. Tops in the field in SG:OTT and 22nd in BoB% (you should be noticing a trend here), Champ just needs to keep it in the fairways and score well on the Par 3s.

Adam Long (DK $8,500) – Long missed the cut last year after winning this event as a rookie in the 2018-19 season, and he’s already notched four Top 15s in eight starts this season. He’s not among my favorites to win, but he’s a solid GPP play in this price range.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,400) – Kizzire might be the best putter on tour right now, and his usual issues off the tee have been mitigated by his performance on the greens. Think of him as a poor man’s Na without the requisite success at PGA West, and a guy that should be low-owned in tournaments at this increased price.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – He hasn’t played much competitive golf lately but Burns has a T18 and T6 in his two appearances here, and both he and Ryan Moore (also making his 2020-21 season debut) make for excellent plays in the $8,000-$8,500 range.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000) – Burns and Moore rank at No. 8 and No. 9 in my model, respectively, though they occupy different ends of the putting spectrum, with Moore’s flat stick lagging considerably. The slight discount on Moore could help make the decision in cash games, but they both make sense for GPPs.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,000) – The ultimate course horse, Hadwin’s performance at PGA West is downright astounding, with four straight finishes among the Top 6 from 2016 to 2019. I’ve tried 100 percent Hadwin ownership before and it worked out badly, but I’m tempted to try it again considering his unusual affection for the TPC Stadium course and the fact that the only reason he didn’t play here last year was due to the birth of his first child.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Erik Van Rooyen, Aaron Wise (GPP), Alex Noren

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Doc Redman (DK $7,500) – The luster has worn off a bit after his T61 in Houston and MC at the RSM Classic, so I feel comfortable enough to call Doc a “sleeper” pick this week. The final ownership percentages will tell the final story on how much I’ll be using, but he’s all the way up at third in my overall rankings this week.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) –Gooch has a top 5 here (2019) and two straight MCs at the RSM and Sony will keep his ownership down. What’s really bizarre is that he’s almost interchangeable in terms of model ranking (12th vs. 13th), past performance (both have a T4 in the past two seasons) and price point (same) with Sepp Straka.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,400) – What I said about Gooch goes for Sepp, right down to my infatuation with both for GPPs. I’ll be building a whole smattering of tournament lineups with either – or both – of these golfers, and hoping they can keep it together the first couple days and make the cut.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – Bradley seems like a one week on, one week off type of golfer, so I’m less concerned about his MC at the Sony Open than I am his Top 25 upside. Bradley always flies under the radar despite a solid approach game and excellent ball-striking off the tee.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,100) – He’s cheap, he can fire at flagsticks and we know he can score (-18 for a T8 at the Shriners in October). NeSmith may not be exciting, but he’s No. 33 in my model this week, he finished T17 in his debut here last season, and he may improve on that this year.

Andrew Landry (DK $7,000) – My model is not kind to Landry this year, but he’s the defending champ and I’ll work in some ownership in MMEs. Not only did he win here in 2020, but he lost in a playoff in this event in 2018, so there’s something about the place he digs.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,800) – I find it difficult to pin down exactly when to play Taylor, but he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 10 in 2019 – and his price (along with a Top 25 last week at the Sony) makes him an interesting punt option.

More value golfers to consider: Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Cameron Tringale, Tom Hoge, Russell Knox (GPP), Chex Reavie, John Huh, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

John Augenstein (DK $6,500) – First-timers seem to fare well here, and Augenstein, playing in his pro debut this week, ranks at No. 53 in my model. He’s got the star power to make this price seem ridiculous in subsequent events. I’ll be overweight on the field and hoping for some Sunday airtime.

Chase Seiffert (DK $6,400) – Seiffert is actually playing with Augenstein, so he can relay stories of his T21 finish in his debut here in 2020 and maybe get those good vibes going again. Seiffert falls just behind Augie, Tom Hoge and Brice Garnett in my model at No. 56, so there’s plenty to like as a bargain bin value option.

Grayson Murray (DK $6,300) – He’s a course horse of the not-quite highest order (with Hadwin in a class by himself) because he’s notched three Top 15s here in his four attempts (MC in 2019). Don’t go overboard, but don’t completely forget about him either.

Additional punt options: Andrew Putnam, Will Gordon, Sebastian Cappelen (GPP) Nate Lashley, Sean O’Hair

Good luck this week! – Antonio D’Arcangelis

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Vivint Houston Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at Vivint Houston open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 132 Golfers – not many big names
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Last year: Lanto Griffin (-14 at different venue: Golf Club of Houston)
The course: Memorial Park GC (Houston, TX – Tom Doak redesign)
- Par 72: 7,432 yards
- Bermuda greens
- Brooks Koepka helped with redesign as PGA player consultant
- Parkland – grass slopes and contours make it similar to Augusta
- Second-shot course favoring accuracy/proximity
- Five Par 5s, Five Par 3s
- No course history
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – If we’re taking a bombers and birdie-makers approach this week (SG:OTT and BoB% are two of our focus stats), we’ve got to like DJ in this prep for Augusta even though his game has been a bit unpredictable the past year. He’s the field favorite and a guy who can separate himself quickly from the field – in either direction.

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – The course layout and design sets up well for a player like Finau, who’s been pretty consistent as a Top 10-type golfer but has lacked the ability to close. This could be the week he finally breaks through with another PGA Tour win.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,800) – Any course with this many Par 5s should benefit Hovland, who’s excellent off the tee and seems to have worked out some of his late-summer struggles. He also provides a modest discount from the top few golfers.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – The Texas native’s stats off the tee and overall ball-striking have been elite this season, so most of how he finishes depends on his putter. There’s not a course he can’t manage, but the price among the top tier of golfers could keep some folks away – making him a solid GPP play.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – Another golfer with the game to flourish on this course, Im excels on Bermuda surfaces and is the ultimate grinder. If he can make some birdies this week and build some early momentum, he’ll be hard to keep out of the Top 15.

Adam Scott (DK $9,100) – Normally I’d consider Scott a better play in cash games and single-entry GPPs, but he’s making his return from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and is more of a risk to miss the cut than usual.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,600) – I’m always surprised how well Zach Johnson fares on longer courses, and this week is another such venue. There may be better value plays out there, but Johnson’s upside and cut-making consistency are undeniable.

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – Harman projects similarly to ZJ in this price range and has venue been more consistent this season, with eight straight finishes among the Top 40 and a neverending slew of made cuts. He makes for a fine cash game play.

Cameron Davis (DK $8,100) – Consider Davis a poor man’s Dustin Johnson, as he make a ton of birdies and can move the ball off the peg with the best of them. There’s oodles of value in Davis this week, though I imagine he’ll get popular at right around $8K.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,800) – Westwood has resurrected his career with some remarkably steady play this season on the European tour, and he finished T13 at the U.S. Open. I could see Westwood playing well the next couple weeks and smashing value at this bargain price.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,700) – Last week’s playoff loss to Brian Gay may haunt him, but Clark is a dynamic golfer who is playing well and fits the profile for this course. Now’s the time to stay aboard the ship – though we know it can go bad quickly for Wyndham and his bomb-and-gouge approach.

Also consider: Russell Henley (cash), Jason Day (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, James Hahn (GPP), Stewart Cink, Denny McCarthy (GPP), Erik Van Rooyen, Mackenzie Hughes

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – Continuing with our theme of bombers and birdie-makers, I present the inimitable Sam Burns, who misses a cut once in a while but has Top 10 upside on a course like this. A worthwhile GPP play at a bargain price.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,400) – Speaking of cuts, we’ve seen Wise miss the weekend five times over his last nine tournaments, so I can’t advocate for him in cash games and might steer clear in single-entry. But if he can get in the Top 65 by Friday night, he’s a solid GPP option with Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $7,100) – Schenk is a consistent player tee-to-green who makes for a fine cash game play at just $7,100, but he may be worth considering in all formats on a course that rewards his strength stats – SG on Par 5s and BoB%.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,000) – The price for Straka this week is just way too low given how well he’s capable of playing. The scoring opportunities should be there this week for the Austrian, who can get red hot with the putter.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – NeSmith is another guy who can go low when the putter catches fire, but the price reflects his inconsistent play. With three straight made cuts and an October Top 10 at the Shriners (T8), he’s on my radar this week.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – Looking for “birdies in bunches” this week could lead you to consider McNealy, who excels on Bermuda. I’ll have shares in GPPs.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – I’ve had a hard time handicapping Homa this season, but he’s got the tee game to compete in this field and the price is way too low given his GPP upside.

More value golfers to consider: Keegan Bradley (GPP), Luke List, Beau Hossler, Scott Stallings, Austin Cook (GPP), Tom Hoge, Charles Schwartzel (GPP), Troy Merritt (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Xinjun Zhang (DK $6,500) – He’s disappointed in his past two events, but Xinjun Zhang played well in Houston last season (T4), and the cheap price could make him a solid play despite the different venue.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,400) –Kizzire struggles with accuracy off the tee, but he’s a solid putter who could easily make value if he can hit some fairways this week. I’ll take a shot in a few large-field GPPs.

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,200) – I know Keith Mitchell is bad, but he’s usually pretty good off the tee (the last few tourneys notwithstanding) and he can putt. For damn near minimum salary we can use him in some “studs and scrubs” GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Hudson Swafford (GPP), Justin Harding, Will Gordon, John Huh, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $11,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $9,500 to $10,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $8,000 to $9,400):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $7,900 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

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