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Sacramento Kings

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr.

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 21)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With approximately ten games left in the regular season, every matchup counts for the NBA playoff picture. Moreover, others are looking to improve their position in the draft lottery. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic (-1.5)

Washington Wizards (+1.5)

The Wizards will be without Kyle Kuzma tonight, meaning the duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal will shoulder the offense. This game environment does not stand out above the others, but it has potential to be a shootout. Washington and Orlando are ranked 22nd and 16th in the NBA in pace, respectively, but also represent two bottom-ten defenses in the league. With Orlando 26th in three-pointers allowed per game, Beal will have ample opportunity to do damage from behind the arc, and has 20 or more points in eight of his last nine appearances.

Orlando Magic (-1.5)

There isn’t much to love about this offense on tonight’s NBA slate, but the Magic are in a good spot versus the Wizards. In balanced lineups, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. all deserve consideration. Meanwhile, Cole Anthony has scored 14 or more points in five straight appearances, logging 27 minutes or more per game in the absence of Jalen Suggs. However, usage is spread out amongst offensive contributors. All five players have a usage rate between 21% and 27% but they do provide a safe floor in a competitive game environment.

Boston Celtics @ Sacramento Kings (+4.5)

Boston Celtics (-4.5)

In what will certainly be the best game of the NBA slate, Jayson Tatum is poised to lead the pack in scoring. While he has only posted one 30-point effort in his last four games, Tatum has a tremendous matchup tonight. The Kings are the surprise of the Western Conference, if not of the entire league this season. However, while they boast an elite offense, they sit 25th in defensive rating and are last versus the combo wing player type.

Sacramento Kings (+4.5)

While the field has been wrongfully chasing Domantas Sabonis performances in the wrong spots, including last night, tonight is a much better matchup for the leading rebounder in the NBA. Not only is Sabonis the only player in the league to averaging over 12 rebounds per game this season, but he has two triple-doubles in his last five games, while missing two others by a single assist and rebound each time. During that span, Sabonis has averaged 20.4/15.2/9.8 on 55.7% shooting. While yesterday was a much better spot for De’Aaron Fox, as evidenced in projections, Sabonis is the key to a Kings victory here tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans (-11.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 16)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite only five games being on the NBA schedule tonight, there are many stars taking the court. A few matchups are heavily favored in the direction of two Championship contenders, but there are two games that stand above the rest. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets (-2.5)

Sacramento Kings (+2.5)

On the second half of a back-to-back, there is no question that the Kings find themselves in the best game environment of the NBA slate. Despite holding the #2 seed in the Western Conference, Sacramento is somehow not favored in this game. Thus, there is a chance that De’Aaron Fox is resting. However, until that news is confirmed, he is in a terrific spot. Not only has Fox strung together two straight 30-point performances, but he leads the league in clutch scoring. Should Brooklyn be unable to switch Mikal Bridges onto Fox routinely, which is going to be the case, Fox will have his way with Spencer Dinwiddie.

Brooklyn Nets (-2.5)

The Kings have the best offensive rating in the NBA, but rank 26th in defensive rating this season. Over their last ten games, they rank 29th with a whopping 120.1 net defensive rating, while allowing 126.3 points per game. Enter the duo of Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie, who have been carrying the offense since arriving to town. Moreover, Cam Johnson gets a matchup with a Kings defense that ranks 29th in wing defense, while allowing the 18th-most three-pointers per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)

There simply is no stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season. The face of the Thunder franchise now sits fifth in NBA scoring with 31.3 points per game. Moreover, he has scored 30 or more points in five straight games, averaging 36/6.2/4.6 on 51.8% shooting during that span. While Scottie Barnes is an elite perimeter defender, SGA will put on a show in front of his hometown crowd.

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

This OKC defense is certainly far from elite, and they are most exposed to combo wings and on the inside. Two players are of high interest in this one, and they are not the familiar faces most will play when getting exposure to the Raptors offense. While the field trends toward Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, both OG Anunoby and Jakob Poeltl have terrific matchups. After missing a month with a wrist injury, Anunoby has yet to play under 30 minutes since his return, while averaging 27.5 points per game in his last two appearances. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl has been a walking double-double in his second stint with the team, averaging 14.7/9.3/2.7 in 13 appearances with the team.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons (+12.5)
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 6)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There may only be six games on the NBA schedule tonight, but many have playoff implications to them. Teams continue to fight injuries and aim to get healthy before the postseason, while others battle it out for the Play-In round. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons (+5.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5)

Despite being on the outside looking in, Portland has a real shot to make the NBA Play-In tournament. On an Eastern Conference road trip, the Trail Blazers squeaked by Orlando last night and must win this game versus Detroit. Thus, Damian Lillard will need to give it all he’s got to carry his team to another victory on the second half of a back-to-back. After another 40-point performance last night, Lillard has now averaged 38.1/5.6/6.2 over his last 15 appearances. Moreover, the duo of Jerami Grant and Cam Reddish are good ways to get exposure to an elite offense, if you cannot get to Dame Time.

Detroit Pistons (+5.5)

Riddled with injuries, the Pistons will be one of, if not the most popular rotation on the NBA slate. Detroit will be without the trio of Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart, in addition to Killian Hayes and James Wiseman listed as questionable. Until their final injury report is released, this rotation is up in the air. However, look for Marvin Bagley and Hamidou Diallo to play significant roles, in addition to Alec Burks, should any combination of Hayes and/or Wiseman miss this game.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5)

A team that once looked to be poised to make noise in the NBA Playoffs has been suffering from injuries all season long. Brandon Ingram missed significant time earlier this year, while Zion Williamson has been out since the first week of January. After missing the team’s last two games, Jonas Valanciunas returned to practice and is a candidate to return, but will have to test out his calf injury before getting the green light. Thus, the backcourt duo of CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram will have to carry this offense. The former turned in two elite performances in the absence of Valanciunas, averaging 24.5/6.5/6 during that span. Moreover, Ingram continues to lead the team in field goal attempts, amassing 20 or more in five of his last seven appearances.

Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

With De’Aaron Fox listed as questionable, the Kings’ injury report will be crucial to this NBA slate. There is no indication that Fox will miss this game, but if he does, the Kings’ supporting cast will have to step up in a tight Western Conference playoff picture. Harrison Barnes has now dropped 20 or more points in three straight games, averaging 23/6.7/1.3 on 56.8% shooting. Moreover, Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter will have more shot attempts if Fox is ruled out, but no one will have a more important role than Domantas Sabonis. The all-star has nine double-doubles over his last ten games, averaging 20.7/12.8/6.4 on 63.7% shooting during that span.

Honorable Mentions:

Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers (+6.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat (-3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 3)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Amongst a plethora of games on the NBA schedule are a few that stand above the rest. Moreover, a few key rotations are on the second half of a back-to-back. Injury reports will be crucial to monitor heading into the late games, as usual. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

Injuries for the Trail Blazers continue to get worse. While still missing Jusuf Nurkic to a calf injury, Anfernee Simons managed to log a mere 20 minutes before reaggravating his ankle injury after a two-week absence. The two have both been ruled out tonight, meaning this is once again an NBA slate where Damian Lillard will be amongst the most popular options in the field. After scoring 25 points versus Golden State, Lillard returned to form against the Pelicans, dropping an efficient 41 points in 39 minutes. He has now averaged 45.7/5.7/4.3 on 53.1% shooting in three games since the All-Star break, sporting an outrageous 41% usage rate. In the absence of Simons, look for Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle to see extended run.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

There are two ways to approach this Hawks offense tonight. The first, being the more clear path to success, is playing both Damian Lillard and Trae Young. However, be aware that, consequently, lineup construction is entirely dependent on this game being the highest scoring affair of the NBA slate. Young has logged three straight 30-point efforts since the All-Star break, averaging 33/2.7/8 through a commanding 40.1% usage rate. Moreover, the second approach is riskier. Both Clint Capela and John Collins have terrific matchups on the inside versus a Portland interior defense that struggles mightily in the paint and on the glass. However, Onyeka Okongwu is a candidate for increased minutes in favor of Capela, should Portland run a smaller lineup down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

The Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back and face another potential playoff opponent tonight. However, they are notorious for resting players in these types of situations, primarily Paul George and/or Kawhi Leonard. The former has said to have been on a minutes restriction lately, but his minutes say otherwise. Meanwhile, Leonard has been in and out of the lineup after serious injuries over the years. There is no clear cut way to get exposure here at the time of writing, but this is one of the best spots on the NBA slate for a team that is already missing Ivica Zubac (calf) and Marcus Morris Sr. (elbow).

Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Two of the best individual matchups on this NBA slate belong to the Sacramento Kings. If primary ball handlers versus the Clippers did not entice you enough over the years, the acquisition of Russell Westbrook only makes matters worse for Los Angeles. Enter De’Aaron Fox, who was back at practice yesterday after a wrist injury. In three appearances since the All-Star break, Fox has averaged 35.3/3.7/7.7 on 63.9% shooting. Moreover, Domantas Sabonis gets the matchup that the fantasy community loves: Mason Plumlee. The former Charlotte Hornet was a daily target to pick on, and the league’s leading rebounder will be no match for him.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5)

While this offense is dominated by Anthony Edwards in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, both Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels make for intriguing plays on this NBA slate. Since coming over from Utah, Conley has averaged 8.5/2.7/5.8 on a mere 36.7% shooting. While the numbers certainly do not jump off the page, the game environment is elite: the Lakers rank second in the league in pace, while ranking 27th against combo guards. Moreover, McDaniels has been a focal point of this defense, alongside Rudy Gobert. The former has been efficient on both ends of the court, scoring in double digits in five straight appearances while averaging 15.4/5.2/1.6 on 62.5% shooting during that span.

Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Make no mistake about it, a matchup versus Rudy Gobert does not limit Anthony Davis’ ceiling on this NBA slate. Not only is he a candidate to lead all players in fantasy points scored, but he has a tremendous floor for someone of his position on the pricing grid. Over his last two appearances, AD has averaged 29/17/2 on 53.8% shooting, amassing four blocks per game. After sitting out the second half of a back-to-back the other night, not only is the Lakers star rested, but there is no one more crucial to this team at the moment.

Honorable Mentions:

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 28)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

While two of the league’s best are missing in action for their respective teams, many elite matchups are on the NBA schedule tonight. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+8.5)

With LeBron James set to miss the next few weeks of the season, the Lakers will need all the help they can get from their newcomers. However, they will also have to do so without D’Angelo Russell tonight, who is doubtful to play because of an ankle injury. Dennis Schroder will start in the event that Russell is ruled out, while Malik Beasley and Jared Vanderbilt will have more offensive opportunity. Rui Hachimura will consequently dominate usage off the bench, but nothing is possible without Anthony Davis leading the charge. With LeBron off the court, Davis has posted a remarkable 1.49 fantasy points per minute through a 30.3% usage rate. With Steven Adams still missing from the Grizzlies lineup, Davis will dominate the paint on both ends of the court tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

Despite two mediocre performances following the NBA All-Star break, this is a terrific spot for Ja Morant. On the season, Morant leads the team with a 35% usage rate, averaging 27/5.9/8.1 on 46.3% shooting. Moreover, the Lakers currently rank 28th versus primary ball handlers, struggling mightily with their on-ball defense. Should Morant alter lineup construction too much, Desmond Bane makes for a viable pivot in tournaments.

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

Sacramento Kings (-2.5)

With the Thunder ranking 3rd in the NBA in pace, this is an elite game environment. Moreover, the Kings currently have the best offensive rating the league has ever seen. While this is tough to compare to prior teams considering the way the game has changed over the years, it’s an impressive feat nonetheless. Tonight, Domantas Sabonis gets the best matchup of the Kings offense. The Thunder not only rank 24th versus crafty centers, but also sit 26th in rebounding percentage. Sabonis not only leads the league in total rebounds, but in rebounds per game as well.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

In the absence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, all eyes will be on Josh Giddey. Likely to be one of the most popular players in the mid range of the pricing grid on this NBA slate, Giddey has a terrific combination of ceiling and floor. With his fellow backcourt teammate off the floor, Giddey sees his usage rate increase from 24.5% to 25.6%, while his fantasy points per minute actually decrease from 1.24 to 1.10. Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe make for viable plays as well, but having no exposure to this Thunder offense is a fine approach as well.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

Arguably the best scorer in the NBA this season, Damian Lillard has simply been unreal. Not only is he fresh off a 71-point performance, but he has scored 30 or more points in 11 of his last 13 appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 40.7/5.2/7.1 on 53% shooting during that span, taking nearly 13 shots from behind the arc per night and hitting at a 43.8% clip. It’s a lofty commitment to make on the pricing grid, but with the Warriors ranked 26th versus primary ball handlers, it’s never too late to jump on the Dame Time train.

Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

While Portland defends the three-ball at a decent rate, Klay Thompson has been lights out lately. Not only has he dropped 32 and 42 points, respectively, in his last two games, but he has made 18 three-pointers across those appearances. Moreover, Jordan Poole will continue to lead this offense and be overlooked on a large NBA slate considering he has struggled coming out of the All-Star break. Should Draymond Green suit up for this one, he makes for an interesting play in tournaments versus a depleted Portland frontcourt, while Kevon Looney is the preferable target between the two.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (+10.5)
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz (-9.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 23)

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

After a long break following All-Star weekend, the NBA is back. Many elite matchups kickoff the last third of the season tonight, with teams making a playoff push and others jockeying for seeding. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5)

There are many elite duos in games on this NBA slate. Beginning with one of the most competitive game environments, Ja Morant faces a tough task versus a stout Philadelphia perimeter defense. By shifting Tyrese Maxey to the bench, James Harden is no longer guarding primary ball handlers and Philly has the sixth-best defense in the league because of it. Desmond Bane gets the friendly matchup versus Harden, but his position on the pricing grid has risen quite a bit. Thus, look to the first combo big off the bench for the Grizzlies in Brandon Clarke. With Steven Adams (knee) still out, Xavier Tillman likely draws another start, alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. With the two being foul prone and facing a foul-drawing artist in Joel Embiid, Clarke will be relied upon heavily off the bench. Moreover, Dillon Brooks draws a friendly matchup in the starting unit but the volume is worrisome.

Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)

Joel Embiid was mentioned above and he is one of many marquee studs on this NBA slate. However, with a matchup versus Xavier Tillman looming, he has tremendous upside. Embiid leads the team with a 36.9% usage rate this season, good for third in the league. Moreover, he has averaged 33.1/10.2/4.1 on 53.7% shooting. James Harden makes for a good target in tournaments, possessing both a safe floor and a high ceiling. Before the break, Harden registered four double-doubles and recorded 20 or more points in four of his last five games. During that span, he averaged 24.4/4.6/10.2 on 48.1% shooting.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5)

Golden State Warriors (+4.5)

Coming out of the NBA All-Star break, many players have shifted upward on the pricing grid. One of the most affected teams are the Warriors, who are reflective of Steph Curry (leg) being out. However, the duo of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have slate-breaking upside, in balanced lineups, in a matchup versus the Lakers. Los Angeles gets LeBron James and Anthony Davis back together in a new-look offense, but this team still ranks second in pace and 18th in defensive rating. In the absence of Andrew Wiggins (personal), Donte DiVincenzo likely draws the start, but it’s Poole and Thompson who will combine for over 40 field goal attempts tonight.

Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5)

Similarly to how the Warriors offense is in a good spot, the Lakers are in just as good of one. While Los Angeles ranks second in the NBA in pace, it is the Warriors who currently lead the league. This one will play in transition, which is perfect for the duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Moreover, newcomers D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt round out a solidified starting unit. The preference is to allocate the core of lineups to this game environment, but there are solid value pieces here as well if you choose to prioritize the game below.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5)

If the core of lineups will not be centered around the Lakers versus Warriors, it should absolutely be around this game environment. The Blazers are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the NBA Play-In tournament, and no one is arguably as important to their team as Damian Lillard is right now. Fresh off winning the three-point contest last weekend, Dame left his mark before the break. Over his 12 games, Lillard has posted 30 or more points in ten appearances. Moreover, he has averaged a whopping 38.2/5.2/7.2 on 52.3% shooting during that span. In the absence of Anfernee Simons, Lillard has the potential to lead this slate in scoring based on his volume alone.

Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

While Jusuf Nurkic is a poor defender, Drew Eubanks is arguably worse when you watch this Trail Blazers defensive unit. Thus, as anticipated, Domantas Sabonis is an excellent pivot off Joel Embiid tonight in what could be the best game environment on the NBA slate. Portland not only ranks 26th in the league versus crafty centers, but they also rank 20th in points allowed in the paint and 17th in rebounding. On the season, Sabonis leads the NBA in both total rebounds and rebounds per game. Moreover, he has averaged 18.8/12.3/6.9 on 61.1% shooting this year.

Honorable Mentions:

Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers (+7.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz (-2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 14)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With only five games on the NBA schedule, there is no room for error. Moreover, there is a strong possibility that many of the league’s brightest stars are missing in action tonight. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Boston Celtics (+4.5)

The opening game of the NBA slate will have two of the most popular rotations. Jaylen Brown (face) remains out for the Celtics, while Jayson Tatum (illness) is doubtful to play. Moreover, Marcus Smart (ankle) remains out, while Robert Williams III (ankle), Malcolm Brogdon (achilles), and Grant Williams (elbow) are all questionable to suit up. Thus, Boston will have a thin rotation tonight. Derrick White will surely be on of the most popular options in the mid range of the pricing grid. He comes into this one averaging 19.4/4.9/5.2 over his last ten games, scoring in double digits in all ten appearances. Moreover, Payton Pritchard stems to gain offensive looks, as do Sam Hauser and Al Horford, depending on who is available.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Given that Vegas opened this line at a mere 4.5 points in the Bucks favor, there is a strong possibility that Giannis Antetokounmpo misses this one, despite being listed as probable. Should he evidently be available, there is a strong chance he leads the NBA slate in scoring. However, a lack of competitiveness in this game environment is apparent, should Tatum be ruled out. Should Antetokounmpo be ruled out, both Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez will get noticeable increases in offensive production, while Khris Middleton makes for an intriguing play in tournaments given his high volume, despite being on a minutes restriction.

Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns (-3.5)

Sacramento Kings (+3.5)

Since being snubbed from the NBA All-Star game, De’Aaron Fox has been on a tear. Over his last seven appearances, Fox has scored 30 or more points in six games. Moreover, he has averaged 29.7/4.1/7 on 50% shooting during that span. A model of consistency for the Kings this season, Domantas Sabonis has a notable advantage over Deandre Ayton in the paint on both ends of the court. Phoenix struggles on the glass in their own end, ranking 20th in the league in defensive rebounding.

Phoenix Suns (-3.5)

With the return of Devin Booker to the Suns lineup, this offense becomes much more potent. However, this greatly decreases the opportunities of both Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton in the pick-and-roll. While Booker continues to ease his way back into action after recovering from a hamstring injury, he figures to be on a soft minutes limit, as he has in his previous two games. In those appearances, which were his first since Christmas Day, Booker played 26 minutes, but took a combined 33 field goal attempts. There is simply no need to force exposure to the Suns on this NBA slate. Rather, keep an eye on the Golden State injury report since they are on the second half of a back-to-back and may sit Klay Thompson, making Jordan Poole a much better play than Chris Paul.

Honorable Mentions:

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors (-6.5)
Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 6)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Yesterday, we saw a rollercoaster of a storyline finally come to an end with Kyrie Irving being traded to the Dallas Mavericks. This not only has implications on future NBA slates, but also sets the wheels in motion for other negotiations to heat up. Injury reports will be key to monitor from now until the trade deadline. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets (+6.5)

Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

De’Aaron Fox missed a second straight game last night due to personal reasons. Should he be ruled out once again, Domantas Sabonis is a prime candidate to be one of the highest scoring players on this NBA slate. Houston is surprisingly the best rebounding team in the league at this point in the season, but they struggle mightily versus Sabonis, who has amassed 29 rebounds across two previous meetings between these two teams. Moreover, he has averaged 22/14.5/12.5 versus Houston this season. The Rockets rank 26th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game, setting the stage for a bounce back performance from the Kings All-Star after a disappointing outing last night.

Houston Rockets (+6.5)

Kevin Porter Jr. remains without a timetable to return, making Houston one of the more intriguing rotations to follow in the latter stages of the NBA season. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun hold bright futures, but the Rockets have a tough road ahead of them in this rebuild. The former returned to the lineup last game after missing the previous three, but struggled mightily with his shot. However, he led the team in usage rate and will do so again tonight. In the mid range of the pricing grid, Green carries a ton of risk, but has massive potential to be in the optimal lineup given his shot-making ability. KJ Martin and Eric Gordon make for intriguing plays in the mid range as well, but lack the upside that Green carries.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5)

Fresh off a 32-point blowout versus the Rockets, where the Thunder put up a ridiculous 153 points, OKC have been thriving in an up-tempo offense this season. They currently sit third in the NBA in pace, while sitting 13th in net rating. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was recently named an All-Star for the first time in his young career, and deservingly so. However, Josh Giddey offers tremendous upside in this matchup as well. Over his last three games, Giddey has averaged 19.3/8/8 on 53.1% shooting. Moreover, he led the team in rebounds during that stretch, as he has done for the duration of the season. Giddey offers a safe floor and a high ceiling in an elite game environment.

Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

The reigning NBA Champions have been dealing with injuries all season long. After an extended absence earlier this season, Steph Curry is now ruled out for multiple weeks. Thus, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will be tasked with picking up the bulk of minutes in the backcourt. On the year, Poole has averaged 20.5/2.8/4.3 on 43.5% shooting. Not only is he third in the team in scoring, but also in field goal attempts per night. However, with Curry off the court, Poole takes on a bigger role, both off the bench and in the starting unit. In this scenario, Poole sees his usage rate increase from 29.4% to a whopping 34.8%, while producing 1.12 fantasy points per minute.

Honorable Mentions:

Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets (+6.5)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

Key Injury Reports:

Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic (heel – out), Spencer Dinwiddie (traded – out), Christian Wood (thumb – questionable), Dorian Finney-Smith (traded – out)
Brooklyn Nets: Kevin Durant (knee – out), Kyrie Irving (traded – out), Ben Simmons (knee – questionable), Seth Curry (adductor – out)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 3)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

For those that enjoy narratives in fantasy sports, this is one of the best slates of the year. Yesterday, the final list for the NBA All-Star game was released and there are notable omissions. Luckily, some of those players are taking the court tonight. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

Sacramento Kings (-3.5)

These two teams will be linked for quite some time, as two players dealt for one another are entering their respective primes. For the Kings, Domantas Sabonis earned a well-deserved All-Star nod last night. Leading the NBA in total rebounds and rebounds per game, he has been a force in his first full season with the organization. Tonight, he takes on his former team without De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to personal reasons. On the season, Sabonis carries a 20.9% usage rate and has posted 1.34 fantasy points per minute. With Fox off the court, Sabonis gets little to no increase, but a matchup versus an Indiana frontcourt that ranks 26th in the NBA versus true centers.

Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

The Pacers are on the second half of a back-to-back, meaning there could be additional names added to their final injury report. Last night, Tyrese Haliburton returned after missing a month of action, posting 26/2/12 against the Lakers. Should he be deemed fit to play tonight, he makes for an excellent tournament play. However, do not overlook Buddy Hield. In his last two games, Hield has seen a decrease in shot attempts and will handle the ball less with Haliburton back. However, Hield leads the NBA in three-pointers made this season and is in a matchup versus a Kings defense that ranks last in the league versus wings.

Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons (-1.5)

Charlotte Hornets (+1.5)

The secondary player at the top of the pricing grid alongside Domantas Sabonis is contingent on LaMelo Ball’s availability tonight. The Hornets have nothing to play for except a higher chance in the NBA Draft lottery, and Ball has dealt with his fair share of injuries this season. The team is on the second half of a back-to-back and Ball was ejected from last night’s game. Nonetheless, this is a terrific spot for one of the most entertaining players in the league. Over his last four games, Ball has averaged 20/9/8 on a mere 35.5% shooting. Moreover, a matchup versus a Pistons defense that ranks 29th in the league versus primary ball handlers sets the stage for Ball to flirt with a triple-double. Look for updates in Discord should he be ruled out.

Detroit Pistons (-1.5)

Until the Pistons make trades to contending teams, their rotation is not friendly for fantasy purposes. Bojan Bogdanovic continues to have an excellent season, with the backcourt carousel of Ivey, Hayes, and Burks limits upside. All four are in an excellent game environment versus a Hornets team that ranks 7th in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive rating. They will be a steady source of production, but Jalen Duren is the primary target here. Taking over for Isaiah Stewart in the paint, Duren has seen 20 or more minutes in seven of his last eight appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 12.9/9.3/1 during that span, collecting over a steal and block, respectively, per game. The Hornets have been dreadful in the paint once again this season, ranking last in the NBA to opposing centers.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Washington Wizards (-4.5)
Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets (+5.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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