Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. I despise referring to this preview as the British Open as much as the next golf writer. This is The 152nd Open Championship. Period. Unfortunately, all of you lovely friends over in the United States insist on referring to this as the British Open. If I want any chance of this preview finding an audience, I have to follow suit.
Now that is out of the way, let’s address the other metaphorical. We have been in great touch lately with our analysis. It was a very real chance to hit the winner on 3 different Tours last week, a feat which rarely presents itself. To walk away with only the one winner and feel disappointed may appear greedy on the face of it. However, given Coody was leader through all 3 rounds (with Hoey in a share for most) and Aberg looking in imperious form with a 2 shot lead entering Sunday, that is the reality.
Overall, it was another very profitable week. We are now at ROI for the year of +5.17%. Obviously, that number is substantially smaller than prior seasons (2023: +32.71%, 2022: +24.90%). However, much of this can be attributed to the manner of winners in 2024. A majority of events on PGA Tour have been won by unbackable very short-priced favourites (looking at you Scottie Scheffler) or extreme long-shots. These things do have a tendency to equalize themselves over time, and it is pleasing to be solidly in profit during what has been a tough year for most golf pundits.
Royal Troon plays host to the 152nd rendition of The Open Championship and is it’s 10th time hosting this prestigious event. Most recently, Royal Troon was host of the 2016 British Open. It resulted in one of the great golf duels of this generation. Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson traded blows in an eventful final two days, both finishing more than 11 shots ahead of their closest rivals.
This is a true, traditional Links test. A welcome return after The Renaissance Club last week, which is perhaps most aptly labelled as “Diet Links”. Think deep pot bunkers with revetted faces. There is thick gorse where you can lose a golf ball 5 metres in front of you. And the course is absolute seaside, leading to an exposed test where the elements and winds so often have their say.
Royal Troon eases you into the round with a number of makeable birdie chances. There are 3 opening par 4s all under 400 yards and two par 5s, with the long par 3 5th the only tricky test. Scoring is mainly compiled via finding the fairway safely, avoiding the pot bunkers and gorse, then hitting a good wedge shot in close. Typically, these holes are played downwind.
It makes for an interesting narrative, as golfers might already feel the pressure if they haven’t managed to stock a few birdies on the card to hold onto throughout the remainder of the round. I have no doubt you will see a player pop up at -5 or -6 for the front 9 at some point in the tournament.
The back 9 is quite the opposite. Where the front 9 is 3,539 yards and par 36, the back 9 is 3,846 yards but a par 35. For those final 9 holes to play more than 300 yards longer, despite being 1 stroke less, and into the prevailing wind outlines the stern finish that faces golfers this week. As a result, distance will be more of an advantage on the back 9 and there will be a higher prevalence of long irons.
That doesn’t change the fact that accuracy will still be important. A number of holes feature out of bounds. Particularly, the famous 11th hole “Railway” will be the toughest hole on the course and maybe even of the entire season. Nicklaus infamously made a 10 on this hole and Arnold Palmer described it as the “most dangerous hole I have ever seen”.
The keys to success here will be driving accuracy, SG: APP under 125 yards, SG: APP over 200+ yards, and putting.
First, a note about Royal Troon course history. When you preview the British Open, initial instinct may take you to the most recent event in 2016 to follow players who performed well.
My advice would be to take this form with a grain of salt. That 2016 Open had one of the largest weather wave advantages in major championship history. From the eventual top 21 on the leaderboard, 17 teed off before 11am on Friday. Furthermore, 2/3rd of the top 21 teed off before 9:45am. As such, I’m not going to penalize players who didn’t necessarily play well here in 2016. If golfers finished high up the leaderboard, it can be taken as a bonus.
Obviously, other links form is also a positive. The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship has a compilation of 3 different links golf courses that should prove a worthy guide. Other courses like Hillside, Castle Stuart, Portstweart, and Dundonald are helpful. Also, don’t disregard faux links courses like Yas Links. All of those are, or have been, on the DP World Tour in recent years.
The difficulty comes that the PGA Tour have no true links courses. The Renaissance Club comes in useful here for the last few years when it has been co-sanctioned between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. Again, this isn’t perfect as not all PGA Tour players compete in that event to preview some links golf prior to the British Open.
For rating PGA Tour golfers, one of the best guides is the Cognizant (formerly Honda) Classic and the host golf course since 2007 PGA National.
Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, and Rory McIlroy have all completed the double at Cognizant Classic with The Open. Then golfers like Lowry, Straka, Garcia, Fowler, Scott, and Woods have either a win or runner-up finish across both events.
In fact, there are some interesting links between the Honda Classic and Royal Troon in general. Shock 500/1 winner Todd Hamilton won The Open here in 2004 and his sole PGA Tour victory came in the Honda.
Justin Leonard also won it and he too lifted the Claret Jug at Royal Troon. And you can throw in Mark Calcavecchia for good measure. Although on neighbouring courses, it’s worthy of a cursory note. All three having proven their adeptness in the Florida winds, which translates well to what Royal Troon and links golf in general demands.
No preview of the British Open would be complete without a look at what the weather may (or may not) do. As seen at The Open Championship in 2016, the exposed nature of links courses can result in a significant weather advantage for certain weather waves. And initial forecasts indicate that weather could play a factor again in 2024.
Importantly, all players go off the 1st tee. This can mean that players don’t necessarily have such a clean AM/PM wave as in other tournaments. Therefore, it is imperative that you check both 1st and 2nd round tee times for your golfers.
Thursday morning looks to be the calmest winds of the day. There is potential rain assisting to soften the greens, as long as it doesn’t get too heavy. Winds will then escalate throughout the day. By the afternoon and evening, winds will reach the high teens and gusts will be significant.
Friday also looks to benefit those going off early. However, there is a notable window between 11am and 3pm where winds may calm a bit before building again later in the evening. That may see the Thursday AM/Friday PM groups get the best of it this week. Particularly, those teeing off in the 11:26am group on Friday onwards bear consideration.
Heavy rains are forecast on Saturday with more high winds forecast. It could be truly dreadful if it remains as currently forecast. Hopefully, the round can finish in regulation time. Given the cut at The Open Championship is Top 70 and ties, bear in mind more golfers will see the weekend.
Sunday should be dry based on current forecasts. However, winds will be high all day. It should lead to a fantastic finish on a very tough back 9 holes with a major championship on the line.
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We are off to Scotland for some links golf, as Rory McIlroy returns after his heart-breaking US Open defeat to defend the Scottish Open.
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Genesis Scottish Open!
Well, before jumping into our John Deere Classic preview, there is one thing we need to say first: WHAT. A. WEEK!
It was a fabulous week all round for our selections at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cam Davis was in our selections at a MASSIVE 70/1 and secured his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the same venue he won at in 2021. We also completed the quinella, with Min Woo Lee finishing runner-up within our selections. We cashed a full place on him at +360.
After three weeks of having hit a first-round leader top 5, we cashed in on Bhatia as first-round leader at 45/1. Sam Stevens finished in 10th, just one shot outside a place finish at 14/1. We cashed a Top 20 at +320 for him.
It is hard to find fault in a week like that. However, I might make an exception for Joel Dahmen. Sitting 7th entering the final round, he was the worst putter in the field by some margin on Sunday when he lost -4.70 SG: Putt. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place at 32/1. Even losing 2 strokes putting (still a substantially dreadful putting day), he would have locked in a Top 20 at +650. Instead, we had to settle on a Top 40 at +200.
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Much is made of this event, from notably receiving a hard time for the low quality of the field and the ease of scoring at TPC Deere Run. Mostly, it is hard to dispute both points.
However, the tournament has still generated it’s own storylines. Steve Stricker famously won 3 consecutive tournaments here from 2009-2011. Jordan Spieth won in both 2013 and 2015. Spieth appears here for the first time since that 2015 win. Largely, that is a result of his current FedEx Cup ranking. He sits outside the Top 50, a key mark to automatically earn his way into all the signature events in 2025. He returns in dreadful form, with question marks about an enduring wrist injury. But, it is Jordan Spieth. And in usual Spiethian fashion, just about anything could happen for him.
It is also one of the last opportunities to qualify for The Open Championship. An alluring prize for those who are yet to make the field, and one that has ensured a somewhat improved field in recent years.
TPC Deere Run has ranked consistently as one of the lowest scoring venues on the PGA Tour in all iterations of the tournament. In the last 14 tournaments, no one has won at a score higher than -18 and typically something in the range of -20 to -25 is required for victory. The cutline has been -3 or -4 for the last 5 years.
In short, you need to make birdies and do so often to remain in contention here. It should be no surprise then that all of the last 7 winners here ranked 15 or better for the week in greens in regulation.
Given fairways are generous average of 36 yards, what may be more surprising in our John Deere Classic preview is that driving accuracy ranks as a high correlation to success. However, the course has ranked in the 9th or lower for rough penalty on the PGA Tour for all seasons in the last 8 years. This is also another factor of the scoring.
Fact is, when you need to make birdies in bunches, you are best placed to do so from the fairway. The course is not overly long, being a 7,289 par 71. This factors into our final point of our John Deere Classic course preview. That is short iron play is supremely important at TPC Deere Run.
A huge 35% of approach shots will occur between 100-150 yards. With a further two approach shots projected between 50-100 yards, that is 45% of approach shots with a wedge in hand. This is particularly intriguing, given the majority of recent golf courses have seen the opposite with a disproportionate number of long irons.
The recipe to success here is find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the subsequent putt.
First thing to note is that TPC Deere Run has one of the lowest correlations between prior success as a predictor of future performance. This might be somewhat confusing given this tournament has been held 23 times at this venue, so a wealth of data is available.
However, given the low scoring here and generally weaker fields, it should be factored into your decisions when you preview the John Deere Classic the prior performances should rated less highly than at other venues.
Finding success here can be linked to a number of other low scoring venues, where driving accuracy and wedge play are the key. Courses such as Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) come to mind here.
Furthermore, Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) could be an important course comp. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker, both multiple time winners of the John Deere Classic, have also won there.
Weather could well play a factor to our John Deere Classic preview this week. When you have to score so low, getting the right side of the weather wave can be essential to finding a winner in betting or DFS markets.
Currently, Thursday morning looks to be the best conditions by far across the first two rounds. Winds will increase to low teens for gusts that afternoon, with a chance of heavy rain and possibly delayed play. On Friday, winds increase even further.
Friday presents the highest winds in the afternoon, with prevailing winds between 14-17 mph and gust between 20-25 mph. However, winds will still be high on Friday morning. It is a very short window before winds begin to increase throughout the day.
As such, I think the best strategy here is for those going out early Thursday. Hopefully, they can make the most of the pristine calm conditions. The goal is to then hold on throughout Friday. The vast majority of players will be completing at least 9 holes in very high winds. Further, those going out Thursday afternoon could slip into the windy conditions Friday morning if substantial delays are experienced.
Over the weekend, winds should settle. On Sunday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the region. Again, this could result in some delays in play should forecasts remain true.
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It’s the final Signature Event of the season! Joel finally ended the Spencer win streak at the US Open, with Rory McIlroy leading the charge on his team if not the golf course. Who will win this week?
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Travelers Championship!
Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.
Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.
Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.
True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.
TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.
Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!
The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.
Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.
As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.
Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.
As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.
Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.
There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.
Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.
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Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).
Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.
That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.
The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!
Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.
Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.
It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.
Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.
Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).
There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.
Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.
Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.
As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.
I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.
The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.
In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.
Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.
Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!
If you want to read my golf betting tips for the 124th US Open, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!
Firstly, thank you all for being a little patient with me over the last fortnight with article production. I’ve been gallivanting around the world again for some work commitments, in this instance to the Philippines. And, as is often the case, I managed to get a bug on the way home. Initially, something I dubbed the “Manila Thriller” followed by a cold, but fortunately not COVID. It is great to be back into the swing of things for a signature event with our Memorial Tournament preview.
However, the golf tips have kept rolling for a great couple of weeks. We hit Nacho Elvira at the Soudal Open for a 75/1 winner on the DP World Tour. We then backed that up with another fabulous week on both sides of the pond. At the European Open, we had both Niklas Norgaard and Julien Guerrier in 4th. Fellow Kiwi Ryan Fox held a 4-shot lead with 25 holes to play, before he looked at a leaderboard. 5 of our selections at the RBC Canadian Open finished 21st or better (with 4 of those in the top 10). It was especially pleasing considering we had limited data on a relatively rare appearance of Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
The signature event returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club, affectionately known as “Jack’s Place”. Jack Nicklaus designed the course in 1974 before the inaugural PGA Tour tournament in 1976. He then undertook a renovation in 2020 which saw all green complexes remodeled, restored bunkering, and lengthening of the course. As such, we have a wealth of data to delve into this week.
The course is perhaps Nickalus’ most iconic design and his stylization of this track is clear to see. A key for all of Nicklaus’ courses is that they should reward players for the gifts they possess. If you have distance, you should be able to use it. However, if you miss the fairway, you will be penalized. Muirfield Village was designed with Augusta National in mind, visible in the heavily undulating greens.
Despite on paper being a very long 7,533 yard par 72, driving accuracy has been a better predictor of success. The rough is thick and lush at 4 inches Kentucky bluegrass. It has been the highest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Adding to that, heavy rain has been experienced throughout May in Ohio.
Greens are relatively small at 5,000sq ft on average. The course has ranked in the top 5 most difficult for SG: APP on the PGA Tour every season since the 2020 restorations. We see 35% of all iron shots occur from 200+ yards and 50% of all approaches from 175+ yards. Notably, the Par 5s are still reachable by even the shorter hitters.
Finally, SG: ATG is a key factor. The course ranked in the 6 most difficult for SG: ATG since 2015. As such, we honed in on driving accuracy, SG: APP (particularly over 175 yards), and SG: ATG this week.
Given the Nicklaus signature design across the property, we can look at a couple of other designs from the Golden Bear for guidance. PGA National has always proven a stern major like test, and that is what we can expect to find this week. Winning scores should not get out of hand there, and a total of -10 to -15 can get the job done. Valhalla stacks up very well also. This has the added benefit of featuring bentgrass greens and ticking the box on recent form, given the PGA Championship was held there just a fortnight ago.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is also analogous. The Valspar Championship has always rewarded driving accuracy over distance (although both are preferable at each). That largely comes down to similar reasons to Muirfield Village: that the rough is long and the fairways are tree-lined. You see a disproportionate number of shots from over 200+ yards, as golfers favour accuracy off the tee and leave themselves a longer approach.
I’ll give a nod to the Wells Fargo Championship host, with Quail Hollow also looking for longer but accurate drivers and providing a stern test. And, of course, I do think it is a benefit if you have played well at Augusta National. Particularly, look for solid performance there around and on those undulating green complexes which we see emulated by Nicklaus here.
Often with signature events, there is little to say about the weather. With most of these events having no cut, they also feature condensed tee-times with all golfers hitting the course within two hours of the rest of the field. Without a cut, you are far more likely to see the cream rise to the top by the end of the week.
However, it is worth noting the differences this week. The event does feature a cut, albeit only to 50 golfers and ties or those within 10 strokes of the lead by the conclusion of round 2. Additionally, all groups will start on the 1st tee this week. That means there is a substantial gap between the field. The first players (a lone Davis Thompson) begin play at 7:40 am local with the final pair not going out until 2:00 pm.
There may be a benefit for those going out earliest on Thursday morning. Prevailing winds should sit in the single digits until around 11:00 am, before rising to mid-teens for the remainder of the day. Heavy gusts are predicted for later in the afternoon, reaching as strong as 25-28mph. Friday should be windy all day, with gusts of between 28-35mph.
With heavy rain overnight Wednesday, I suspect Thursday AM get both softer and calmer conditions. I would not be surprised to see lift, clean, and place in-play. That would further benefit those who gain on the field for driving accuracy.
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Well, I may have a small part of premonition on the PGA Tour last week in our preview of the Wells Fargo Championship. I mentioned that there may be some hope for punters trying to find some value with no Scottie Scheffler in the field and Ludvig Aberg WD with knee injury concerns. I went on to say that it probably meant Rory McIlroy would win. We duly struck a blow for punters, becoming yet another short-priced favourite to win on the PGA Tour. There, I will fess up, I jinxed it. Sorry, all.
True to form, I mentioned an interesting PGA stat I found in the lead-up to the Wells Fargo Championship preview. Just two winners had sat outside the Top 31 for ball speed when they won at Quail Hollow. It may be frustrating to see another short-priced winner, but it was reassuring to see our analysis played true in that regard.
But, let’s get honest. It has been a dire season for nearly all golf punters. It has been either very short-priced favourites or extreme long-shots taking out most tournaments for the season. So often, golf betting value is found in the 50/1 to 100/1 range. There have been just 4 such winners on the PGA Tour this year. Fortunately, finding Pavon at 125/1 at the Farmers Insurance Open has saved us from complete decimation. However, we stick to the process with the knowledge that when it comes to golf analysis following the numbers will eventually lead to a positive result over the long run.
Speaking of Rory McIlroy, the PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club, a course we last had the chance to preview some 10 years ago. That was the venue of Rory’s last major victory, and he arrives in a rich vein of form off the back of consecutive victories. Included in that was the win at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, where Quail Hollow should play analogous to Valhalla.
This feels like another venue that will do what it says on the tin. Valhalla, designed by Jack Nicklaus and played in the state of Kentucky, is an epic 7,609 yards par 71. Quail Hollow is also a par 71 and a mere 51 yards shorter. Both also feature a driveable par 4 and reasonably narrow fairways.
That is a hallmark of Nicklaus-designed golf courses. He tests every element of a player’s game. So, if pulling driver, you will be rewarded with extra distance if you keep the ball in-play. However, fairways narrow significantly at landing areas with thick hay and fairway bunkers awaiting any tee shot that falls too astray.
Greens are a little smaller than Quail Hollow and are bentgrass. They will be firm and fast, typical of a PGA Championship venue. Par will often be a very good score and see you gaining strokes on the field.
Finally, we have a rare emergence of zoysiagrass fairways. This grass type features rarely on the PGA Tour. We see this at regular stops at TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Southwind, and East Lake Golf Club. This polarizing grass has a higher rate of water retention. Some players comment that it feels like hitting the ball off a tee. Others complain that it can produce flyers, with the grass getting caught between the ball and club face and traveling further than expected.
As mentioned, this is a rare circumstance where last week’s tournament provides not only some guidance of recent form but a course that should demand similar skills from our golfers in this PGA Championship preview.
Quail Hollow matches in a large number of metrics, from overall performance off the tee, and similar approach metrics as expected this week where any shots over 175 yards will see a disproportionate weighting compared to other PGA Tour venues.
Given some of the weather to be discussed shortly, I think that the 2022 PGA Championship could be a reasonable guide to this week. Oak Hill also is far from the worst guide to consider.
I have also included some weighting in my model to recent zoysiagrass performances. Although the venues often produce lower-scoring tournaments, we can look into the approach numbers at these PGA Tour stops to identify players who may prefer this grass type.
Weather certainly looks like it could play a role in this year’s PGA Championship preview. Thursday currently looks to be quite calm, although early morning fog may see play delayed by an hour or two if heavy. Particularly, Thursday morning looks to be quite still and should provide optimal scoring conditions with the course still a little moist from rain earlier in the week.
Friday afternoon, we could see some more volatile weather arrive. There is a chance of thunderstorms from 1pm and winds will increase, gusting up to 25-30mph. There is always the risk with thunderstorms that play is delayed. This can cause any weather edge to flip 180°.
However, in this instance, forecasts have Saturday being very windy and high gusts all day. Thos on Friday PM would only find themselves in more volatile winds should they need to finish round 2 on Saturday morning.
That leads me to believe there should be a weather edge for tee-times from Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. That always comes with the caveat that weather forecasts can flip quickly, especially when there is the looming chance of thunderstorms.
Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge. You will find this information and more in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
If you want to read my golf betting tips for the PGA Championship, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.
Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the PGA Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
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