Our pitching picks have been on point recently and I absolutely love this group of pitchers on this slate. What’s funny is that we’re actually going to fade a couple of studs. That truly says a lot about the very talented arms on this schedule and it’s dealers choice in terms of cheap or expensive arms.
Cash Game Pitcher of the Day
Blake Snell, TB at CLE
DK ($11,400) FD ($11,200)
There are a ton of great options on this slate, but Snell has the best matchup of all the studs. The Indians rank 24th in scoring, 26th in OPS and 25th in wOBA. They’re equally as bad against lefties, ranking 24th in both average and OPS while ranking 21st in strikeouts. That makes any pitcher worth considering against them, especially a guy who’s coming off an AL Cy Young. Snell is not far off of that 2018 form, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and owning a 71: 12 K:BB rate across 49 innings of action.
Top-Tier Options
Robbie Ray, ARI at SF
DK ($10,900) FD ($8,700)
While I can’t justify using him on DK at $10,900, the $8,700 price tag on FanDuel makes him tough to avoid. What I really like about Ray is this matchup, with the Giants ranking as one of the worst offenses in the league, In fact, San Francisco currently sits 27th in runs scored, 28th in OPS and 29th in wOBA. That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that Oracle Park is arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors. That puts Ray squarely in play, as his 30 percent K rate, .299 wOBA and 3.35 ERA is hard to overlook against a lineup like this.
Jose Berrios, MIN vs. CWS
DK ($10,200) FD ($9.900)
The Twins have been one of the biggest surprises in the league and Berrios is a huge reason why. The stud righty has broken out to post a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while providing a 60:11 K:BB rate. Those are some of the best numbers in the AL and it really makes him tough to fade against an offense like this. Not only does Chicago rank 20th in both runs scored and OPS, they also have the worst K rate in the Majors dating back to last season. That’s why Berrios enters this game as a –230 favorite, which only adds more spunk to his value.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. DET
DK ($10,100) FD ($10,600)
This is probably my favorite tournament play on the board, as Syndergaard’s upside is simply monstrous in a matchup like this. While the season-long numbers are nothing special, his peripherals are simply elite. In fact, Syndergaard has a 2.76 career FIP and 27 percent K rate while posting a .276 xwOBA so far this season. That means he’s been the victim of some bad luck and a start against the Tigers is a good way to regress back to the mean. Detroit currently ranks 29th in OPS, runs scored and K rate while sitting 28th in wOBA. That spells disaster in a pitching park like Citi Field, especially considering they’re about to lose a DH.
Mid-Tier Option
Joey Lucchesi, SD at TOR
DK ($8,900) FD ($7,000)
Lucchesi was my play of the week last Friday on FanDuel and he continues to be undervalued. While his 4.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP doesn’t look like anything special, his peripherals tell a different story. We’re talking about a guy with a .293 xwOBA and 3.50 xFIP to match his impressive 25.4 percent K rate. Those are elite peripherals and you’d usually see those sort of numbers from a $9,000 player. Getting to face Toronto is nothing to fear either, with the Blue Jays ranking 27th in wOBA, 20th in K rate and 26th in both runs scored and OPS. That’s why Lucchesi enters this matchup as the favorite with Toronto projected for only four runs.
Cheap Pitchers
Drew Pomeranz, SF vs. ARI
DK ($7,200) FD ($5,900)
Alright, we’re going to get a little risky here with these final two picks. I always have a hard time fading a Giants pitcher at home in a quality matchup, especially when they’re so cheap. Pitching at Oracle Park simply can’t be matched, as that’s easily the lowest-scoring park in the Majors. That’s why we’re looking at a 7.5-total here, with Arizona projected for fewer than four runs. Pomeranz is a decent bet for a quality start, which is all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply. The San Fran southpaw is not as bad as his numbers indicate either, as his 4.00 career ERA and 23 percent K rate are acceptable numbers from someone in such a good situation. The Diamondbacks ranking 23rd in xwOBA only adds to Pomeranz’s intrigue.
Kyle McGowin, WSH vs. MIA
DK ($7,000) FD ($5,500)
This is simply a punt play because anyone is worth starting against the Marlins. Miami’s offensive numbers are downright historic, as they rank last in wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG, runs scored and OPS. That puts any pitcher in play against them and it’s hard to overlook a guy who’s only $5,500 on FanDuel in such a premium matchup. McGowin’s Triple-A numbers are rather impressive too, with the right-hander having posted a 3.50 FIP and 26 percent K rate at that level over the last two years. He also enters this matchup as a –150 favorite with Miami projected for only four runs.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day
Jose Berrios 1.5 more strikeouts than Reynaldo Lopez
With Minnesota entering this game as a monster favorite, it seems likely that Berrios will last much longer than Lopez. That alone makes this a great spot, as Berrios is the far superior pitcher. The fact that Chicago ranks 25th in K rate while Minnesota sits third only adds to the value of this pick, as I could see Berrios recording four more Ks than Lopez.
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Noah Syndergaard over 6.5 strikeouts
The upside here is simply ridiculous. We’re talking about a pitcher with a 27 percent K rate facing the second-worst lineup in baseball. It’s not only that the Tigers have a horrible lineup, they also own the second-worst K rate in the Majors while playing without a DH. Those factors are hard to overlook and working in a pitcher’s park like Citi Field puts Syndergaard in play for double-digit Ks.
