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Robbie Ray

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 21)

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We’re at the point of the season where teams are starting to jockey for playoff position, or are fighting for the playoff lives.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray vs. Oakland Athletics

Robbie Ray has had an up-and-down season in 2022. He’s shown flashes of the 2021 Cy Young-winning pitcher, but he’s also thrown some duds like he did last time out vs. the Los Angeles Angels. That said, I do think he has one of his better outings tonight vs. a pesky, but average at best Oakland Athletics lineup.

He’s faced the Athletics 3 times already this season and has had double-digit strikeouts in 2 of them. The projected lineup tonight for the Athletics has just a .255 wOBA against lefties over the last month and a 26% K rate. There’s definitely going to be some upside for him tonight and he’s priced fairly at just $9.6k on DK tonight.

Triston McKenzie vs. Chicago White Sox

The price is a little on the high end for what I like to pay for Triston McKenzie, but options are extremely limited tonight, especially with one of the better pitchers on the mound in Snell being in an awful matchup. McKenzie has put together a really solid season. He’s reached double-digit wins for the first time in his career and he also has the lowest ERA at just 3.08.

Over the last month 2.5 months, he’s had just 2 games allowing more than 3 ER. If we ever attack the White Sox, it’s with a right-handed pitcher. They’re extremely beatable tonight and while McKenzie is expensive, he’s proven his worth this season. He has back-to-back games over 20DK points and hasn’t been in single digits since way back in June. He has sneaky upside tonight as the last time he faced the White Sox he K’d 14 of them.

Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals

I said options were limited tonight and I meant it. Ober is cheap tonight at just $7.7k on DK and gets a really solid matchup vs. a bad Royals team, a team that is on pace to lose well over 90 games this season. Their lineup has been more anemic than usual as they’ve scored just 15 runs over the last month.

The lineup that Ober is expected to face tonight has a .296 wOBA vs. righties over the last month and just a .108 ISO. Ober hasn’t pitched much this season due to injury, but his first start coming off the IL was very solid, allowing just 1 hit in 5 innings against the Guardians. He was also able to strike out 5 in that game. Against a much weaker Royals lineup, he should be able to come close to that again tonight. He’s a solid value SP2 tonight. Pairing him with Ray gives you more than $4k per batter on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner

This is the matchup that dreams are made of. The Dodgers tonight get the best matchup of the day as they’ll be taking on a pitcher in Madison Bumgarner that just continues to struggle night in and night out when he’s on the mound. MadBum got shelled in his last outing, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of work, while allowing 3 homers to the Padres. He continues to give up just a ton of hard contact.

Over the last month, he’s given up a hard-hit rate of over 42% and has allowed 11 barrels in his last 19 innings of work. MadBum has been especially bad against righties over the last month. They have a .319 ISO vs. him and a .429. While they will be my priority tonight, lefties won’t need to be ignored as they’ve been crushing him too.

Core: My core with the Dodgers tonight will be the trio of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and former Met Justin Turner. I don’t need to get into much detail about Betts and Turner. They are 2 of the better hitters in the game, especially against lefties. Betts has been absolutely crushing lefties over the last month with a .556 ISO and a .504 wOBA. He’s expensive at $6k on DK tonight, but on FanDuel he’s somehow just $3.5k. Someone was asleep at the wheel when they set that and he’s a must-play over there.

Justin Turner has also been crushing lefties recently. Over his last 20 AB, he has a .333 ISO and a .567 wOBA against them. At $4.7k on DK tonight, he’s absolutely in play with how well he’s handled lefties.

Secondary Pieces/Value: After my core, I’ll look to use the rest of the Dodgers lineup where they fit as the entire team will be in play tonight. The 3 guys at the back of this lineup will provide us a ton of value in a great spot. Trayce Thompson, Hanser Alberto, and Miguel Vargas are all under $3k tonight and will give us a ton of flexibility with our payroll tonight. They’ll make paying up for Betts and Tuner much easier to swallow.

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch

While Daniel Lynch has shown some promise, he’s still shown that he is young and makes a ton of mistakes. He has 3 consecutive starts allowing multiple homers, with one of those being against this same Twins team a week ago. Over his last 23 innings of work, Lynch has allowed 7 homers and a 38% hard-hit rate.

Until he can control the homers, he’s someone we should always consider stacking against. Especially with a high-powered offense like the Twins. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against Lynch. Over the last month, both sides of the plate have crushed him. He’s especially bad against lefties as they have a .532 wOBA during that stretch.

Core: My priority with the Twins tonight will be Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela. Combined, these two will cost us an average of $4.2k which isn’t too bad. Carlos Correa has been on fire over the last month vs. lefties, with a .579 wOBA and a .750 ISO. He’s also coming into this one hot as he has 8 hits over his last 14 AB. Although the Twins have been a huge disappointment this season, it hasn’t been due to Correa.

Next up is Gio Urshela. Urshela has also been very strong vs. lefties over the last month, with a .469 wOBA and a .269 ISO. He should continue with that strong hitting tonight with this matchup.

Secondary: Next up I’ll look to include guys like Jose Miranda, Gary Sanchez, and Nick Gordon. Even though Gordon is in the L/L matchup tonight, Lynch has struggled with lefties his whole career. Gordon will absolutely be a K risk but he has also sneaky power as he one of the top expected slugging %’s in all of baseball this season. He’s just $3.2k and is really hot right now, with 5 hits in his last 8 AB. He’ll someone that has upside at a low cost and low ownership.

Texas Rangers vs. Tucker Davidson

No team has been a bigger disappointment this season than the Texas Rangers, in real life and MLB DFS. They were expected to compete for a playoff spot this year but have already been eliminated. That said, they get a good matchup tonight vs. Tucker Davidson. This is also a team that has performed significantly better vs. southpaws this season than righties. In Davidson, we have a pitcher that has given up a 7.27 ERA over the last month and has also allowed 4 homers in 17 innings of work over that stretch.

His biggest struggle though has been his command. His BB/9 over the last month is an astounding 5.71. If the Rangers can show any level of patience tonight, they’ll get plenty of runners on. This is another matchup where we won’t need to worry about splits. Davidson has been equally bad against both sides of the plate, as each has a slugging % over .450.

Core: I’m going to start my build tonight with Nate Lowe, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia. Lowe is someone that i love using in L/L matchups. Over the last month Lowe has a wOBA over .400 vs. lefties. On the year, he’s hitting .341 against them and has a .553 slugging %. He excels in these matchups and is reasonably priced at $4.2k on DK.

Next up will be Marcus Semien. Semien has been hitting the ball well recently, with 6 hits in his last 17 AB. He’s also had a 46% hard-hit rate over that stretch. He should dominate in this matchup tonight.

Value: After my core with the Rangers, I’ll look to grab value. And they’ll have a ton of it tonight. Mark Mathias, Josh Jung, Leody Tavares, Sam Huff, and Bubba Thompson are all under $3k tonight and will provide for flexibility. My favorite of the bunch will be Jung as he’s been solid since being called up. Over 19 plate appearances against lefties, he has a .421 ISO and a .423 wOBA. He’s as solid of a value as we’ll see tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Mariners vs. James Kaprielian and both sides of the Coors game.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 16)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. With large slates, comes lots of options and we have that tonight.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Verlander vs. Oakland Athletics

The ageless wonder Justin Verlander takes the mound tonight vs. the Oakland Athletics. He’s arguably the best pitcher on the mound, while also in one of the best spots out of any pitcher. We saw last night what a really good right-handed pitcher can do to this offense as McCullers struck out 11 in 6 innings. He has nowhere near the K ability that Verlander has either.

Verlander is making his first start today in a little more than two weeks so there’s always the possibility that he’s on some type of limitation. That said, he has the ability to wrack up strikeouts quickly and his stay on the IL was not an arm injury. He has as much upside as anyone tonight, but he’s also pricy at $11k on DK.

Robbie Ray vs. Los Angeles Angels

After starting out his Mariners career a little on the rocky side, the last couple of months has been kind to last year’s AL Cy Young. Ray gets a strong matchup tonight vs. an Angels team that has little to play for at this point. A team that has the two best hitters in the game will have a 7th straight season under .500. If Ray can navigate around Trout and Ohtani tonight, he should be able to have one of his ceiling-type games.

He’s faced the Angels 3 times already this season and has 30 K’s across them. Really love the upside of a pitcher that has been dominant over the last month. He owns a 1.82 ERA over the last month and just a 28% hard-hit rate. He should be one of the higher-scoring pitchers by the end of the night.

Michael Wacha vs. Kansas City Royals

Did you know that Michael Wacha is only 31? Yeah, it seems like he’s been around since the 70’s but I guess he hasn’t. He gets a great matchup tonight vs. a lineup that is just going through the motions. Dylan Bundy was able to essentially silence this lineup for 4 innings last night. That’s really all you need to know about the matchup.

Wacha is coming into this one pitching well. He’s pitched to just a 3.34 ERA over the last month and has a respectable 24% K rate. Nothing special, but on a night without any true strikeout pitchers outside of Verlander and Ray, it will have to do. His numbers will only amplify against a lineup that has a 28% K rate over the last week and has scored a meager 11 runs. Great matchup, and he’ll make a solid SP2 tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Jonathan Heasley

Jonathan Heasley has slowly become of my favorite pitchers to use when building out my MLB DFS stacks. He’s a pitcher that gives up an extremely high amount of contact and he’s also an extreme flyball pitcher. A great combo if we’re searching for homers. Over the last month, he’s given up 4 homers in just 20 innings of work and has a nearly 84% contact rate. His flyball rate is over 52%. Giving up that many flyballs never ends well and most of Heasley’s starts do not end well.

With Heasley, we don’t need to be overly concerned with splits. He’s been pretty bad to both sides as they each have a slugging % over .470 and wOBAs over .350. That said, he’s even worse against lefties as they have a .533 slugging % and a wOBA of .384. 11 of the 17 homers he’s given up have been to lefties.

Core: My Red Sox stack will start with their 2 stars, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. These are not only the 2 big names in the lineup but the 2 guys that also do the most damage. Devers is my favorite of the two if you can only afford one of them tonight. On the year, he’s crushed righties with a .266 ISO and a .385 wOBA. In this type of matchup, he should smash and I’ll want to be sure to take advantage of it.

While Devers is my lean, Bogaerts isn’t too far behind. He’s been the hotter of the 2 and has been crushing righties over the last month. He has a .254 ISO and a .439 wOBA against them over the last month. He has hits in 5 straight and should extend that streak tonight in a plus matchup.

Secondary Pieces/Value: After my core, I’ll just look to plug in pieces here as all Red Sox will be in play. Guys like Tommy Pham, Alex Verdugo, and Trevor Story will be my favorite secondary plays as they all possess the most upside in this lineup. Of that group, Story is my top target as he’s been doing well vs. righties over the last month with a .205 ISO and a .377 wOBA.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jordan Lyles

The old Jordan Lyles came out to play against the Red Sox when he gave up 8 ER in just 3 innings of work. A repeat performance vs. a Blue Jays team that is clicking right now is not out of the question. The Blue Jays’ 33 runs over the last week trail only 4 teams. They are hot right now and get the great matchup vs. Lyles.

Lyles has been giving up a ton of contact over the last month at nearly 88%. That’s an insanely high number and if that continues tonight vs. the Blue Jays, it will be a short outing. You can’t put that many balls in play against a lineup that has stars like the Blue Jays and expect to have any level of success.

Core: The Blue Jays’ offense is running right through Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero right now. Bichette may be the hottest hitting the game at this point. What he’s done so far in September has been just insane. Just halfway through the month, he’s up to 7 homers and 22 RBI. The matchup against Lyles tonight is one that he should be able to exploit as righties have been no match for him of late. He has a .432 wOBA vs. them over the last month.

Next up is Guerrero. There have been times this season that he’s been an easy fade for him because he was just pounding the ball into the ground. While he still has been having some groundball tendencies, his launch angle is actually positive right now. Over the last week, he’s had 10 hits in 31 AB and has scored 5 times. He’s hit in 9 straight and should get that streak up to double digits tonight.

Secondary/Value: After my core, I’m going to look to get guys like Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman, Raimel Tapia, and Cavan Biggio into my Blue Jays stack. Lyles has been worse against lefties this season, making plays like Tapia and Biggio more appealing tonight. They are both extremely cheap ways to get a part of this stack as they are both under $3k tonight.

San Diego Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner

The Padres have been extremely disappointing, with just 4 wins in their last 10. A matchup against Madison Bumgarner should be what gets them going and makes them a favorite for my MLB DFS stacks. Bumgarner continues to just give up a ton of hard contact. Over his last 20 innings, MadBum has given up a nearly 43% hard-hit rate and has given up 4 homers and 11 barrels in those innings. Just awful metrics for him.

With MadBum, we want to prioritize righties. He’s allowed a .504 slugging % vs. them and a .366 wOBA. 18 of the 21 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties.

Core: My core with the Padres will be Manny Machado and Brandon Drury. After a nearly two-week stint on the IL, Drury returned last night and picked up right where he left off. He had two hits in 3 AB, one of which was an extra-base hit. He’s been really good vs. lefties over the last month with a .390 wOBA and a .235 ISO. He should excel in this matchup.

I also like Machado here. His bat’s been a bit cold, but he’s still been solid vs. lefties. In his last 34 AB against them, he has a .339 wOBA and a .281 ISO. He has had some success vs. MadBum in the past and tonight should be no different. Another core piece here will be Will Myers. Myers has crushed lefties over the last month, with a .400 ISO and a .457 wOBA. He’s also an inexpensive piece here at just $3.2k on DK tonight.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I like here will be Jurickson Profar, Ha-seong Kim, and Josh Bell. Profar and Kim are very reasonably priced today considering the environment and matchup. Profar is under $4k and Kim is leading off at $4.1k. Neither is a priority but can be filled in where needed.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Diamondbacks vs. Blake Snell, Mets vs. Mitch Keller, and Marlins vs. Josiah Gray. I also really like the Yankees tonight vs. Adrian Houser.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/25 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Friday – 09/10

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 13 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Not sure what else there is to say about Robbie Ray at this point. He continues to go out and mow down batters. While his price is steep he’s someone that has unmatched strike out ability on this slate.

Over the last month he has a 40% k rate. He has 4 straight games with double digit strike outs. W/ a match up against an inconsistent Orioles team there’s no reason to think he can be slowed down. The Orioles haven’t been as good against lefties recently and have a 24% K rate over the last 30 days vs. them. I’m locking in Ray tonight in my lineup and not looking back.

Michael Wacha ($8.5k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I’m not as in love with this pick as I am with Ray, but Wacha has been pretty good over the last month. He has 3.18 xFIP and his K rate is approaching 30%. Of all the pitchers on the slate tonight there are only 2 others that have been striking out more batters over the past month than Wacha.

Wacha gets a decent match up too tonight as the Tigers offense hasn’t been doing much over the past week. They have a 26% K rate with limited barrels. At the end of the night tonight Wacha will be one of the higher scoring pitchers.

Tyler Mahle ($9.9k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – After Ray, there really isn’t much to love tonight. The majority of the pitchers have tough match ups but I think we can get some value with Mahle tonight. We’ve seen at times the Cardinals lineup go cold.

They’re in one of those stretches right now as they have a 27% K rate over the past week and haven’t done much in the power dept. They have 6 barrels over the past week and only 38 hard hit balls. League average over the past week is 54 hard hit balls so they are underperforming compared to the rest of the league.

In Mahle we’re getting a pitcher that has a 27% K rate over the past month and has done a nice job in limiting the hard hits w/ just a 24% hard hit rate. The Cardinals could wake up at any point, but I like Mahle’s chances of having a solid game tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matthew Boyd – Boyd hasn’t pitched much over the past month but from his two outings we can decipher that he’s not sharp. In both outings he last only 4 innings. In those 8 innings he’s managed to give up 3 homers. With the Rays current lineup we know that we can chase homers against Boyd.

Since coming off the IL it’s been righties that have been giving him the most trouble. In 35 PA righties have a .345 ISO against him. I’m going to load up on Rays righties tonight. The first two that I’m targeting are Mike Zunino ($3.4k) and Manual Margot ($2.3k). Let’s start with Zunino who is having just an amazing year. Over the past 30 days he has an unreal .773 ISO against lefties. I’ll let Brian do the home run calls, but Zunino has a great chance to have a solid night.

Other Rays I’m interested in are Nelson Cruz ($4k) and Jordan Luplow ($2.2k). Cruz is another guy that is absolutely crushing lefties right now with a .321 ISO over the last month. Look for the Rays to have another one of those monster nights tonight.

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch – Lynch is going to be a good pitcher one day. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle for him so far at the Major League level. Over the last 30 days it’s been an even bigger struggle as his xFIP and SIERA are both sitting in the mid 5’s. Lynch has very clear splits that we can take advantage of. He’s dominant against lefties. But righties. Righties are have a .405 wOBA against him over the last month.

He gives up way more hard contact and fly balls to righties. The middle of the Twins lineup is where I want to sit tonight and they are all very affordable. Refsnyder ($2.2k), Donaldson ($3.1k), Sano ($3.2k), and Rooker ($2.4k) are all extremely cheap given the match up. On a night where we want to get Ray and then the Rays, having a lineup like the Twins will help us afford what we want.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Eli Morgan – Morgan is another pitcher I want to pick on. He’s part of the young crop of pitchers that the Indians are developing and he’ll be solid one day. Right now, he’s just giving up way too many mistakes.

Over the last month he has a fly ball rate pushing 50%. In just 23 innings of work he’s managed to give up 8 barrels. If Morgan had a higher K rate I’d be willing to overlook the barrels but with a K rate of around 23% over the last month he’s just getting into too much trouble. Morgan also has some pretty clear splits.

Lefties have a hit distance more than 70 feet farther than righties do against him. With the Brewers I’m going to live at the back of the lineup tonight. Narvaez ($2.4k), Vogelbach ($2.3k) , and Tellez ($2.3k) are all underpriced for the match up vs. Morgan tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

I’ve listed 3 pitchers tonight but that’s only because my bosses require me to. I’m sticking w/ Ray tonight as he just has so much upside. With the stacks I laid out you should have no issue fitting in the Rays plus Ray plus some decent Twins.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 09/05

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – What a year that Robbie Ray has had! He made some pitch selection changes coming into the year and they have really paid off in a Cy Young level season. Over the last month Ray has been dominant. He has a 37.5% K rate which is way above the field.

Ray has also been really doing a great job of limiting the hard contact with just a 25.7% hard hit rate over the last 30 days. Ray sets up extremely well w/ the A’s. His main strike out pitch is his slider and it’s a pitch that the A’s can struggle with as they have a handful of batters that have whiff rates over 30%.

If he can neutralize Marte today he should have one of his 50 FD point outings. He’s my SP1.

Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Kansas City Royals – Cease put together a solid August. He had a 3.94 xFIP and an elite 33% K rate, trailing only Ray of all the starters going today. The match up vs. the Royals isn’t the greatest as they tend to be stingy, but if I’m going to attack the Royals it will almost always be with a righty.

Cease matches up pretty well w/ the Royals as his main pitch to strike batters out his slider. He has a 40% K rate with it this year and uses it about 30% of the time. Outside of Perez (my vote is to just intentionally walk him all day) the Royals lineup really struggles with sliders.

You have guys like Dozier and O’hearn who have whiff rates near 50%. If Cease’s slider is on today, sky’s the limit.

Luis Castillo ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Of all aces going today, Castillo probably gets the softest of the match ups. Tigers over the last 30 days have a 24% K rate vs. righties.

While Mahle didn’t have the greatest game against them last night he did strike out 8 Tigers. I see no reason why Castillo can’t match that strike out number and I have more confidence in him limited the damage done.

Over the past 30 days he’s been keeping batters in check w/ just a 26% hard hit rate and just 4 barrels in nearly 30 innings of work. Castillo has just 1 start under 30 FD points in the last 3 months. Look for him to continue that trend w/ a floor of 30 points today.

I love Burnes as a pitcher and he should do well today. He’s just overpriced in my opinion as he’s almost $2k more on FD than he is on DK.

Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this year and has only eclipsed 40 FD points once and that was back in April when he was striking out batters more consistently. I’m not saying don’t play him, I just think he’s closer to his floor today than he is his ceiling.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Griffin Jax – I’m going to channel my inner Brian and use the Rays as my top stack tonight. They get a match up in a pitcher that has been struggling to limit hard contact.

Over the past 30 days Jax has a near 48% hard hit rate with a 46% fly ball rate. Add those 2 numbers together and you have a pitcher in Jax that has given up 8 homers and 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.

Jax has been pretty awful to both sides of the plate as righties have a .317 ISO against him and lefties a .400 over the past month. If we look at this Rays lineup they just dominate righties.

Lowe ($3.4k) and Kiermaier ($2.2k) are my favorites here. Lowe has a .338 ISO against righties over the past month and Kiermaier has .279. Both guys are my core.

The other guys I’ll look to sprinkle in from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($3.4k) and Wander Franco ($4.2k). The Rays are hot again w/ the bats and a pitcher like Jax stands no chance at slowing them down.

New York Mets vs. Josiah Gray – Don’t look now but the Mets’ bats have finally woken up after sleeping through most of August. Look, Gray has a ton of talent. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game as he was part of the Turner/Scherzer deal.

That said, he’s still someone that is attackable with how he has been pitching of late. Over his last 27 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. When you give up a 55% fly ball rate you’re bound to see some balls leave the park.

The first bat I’m going to build my core around will be Jonathan Villar ($2.8k) as he’s been red hot over the last week. He has a 1.359 OPS and .565 wOBA. The next guy is Michael Conforto ($2.7k).

Conforto is as streaky of a hitter as there is in the game. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and when he’s locked in, you play him. He has a 53% hard hit rate over the past week. Enjoy the ride while it lasts with him.

Another disappointing Met that is starting to see the ball well again is Francisco Lindor ($3.3k). Lindor has a 53% hard hit rate and 47% fly ball rate over the past week. With the Mets finally hitting like they were supposed to they should get to Gray early today and then get the Nats bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cole Irvin – Irvin has not been good over the past 30 days. Frankly, he’s been awful. Over the last month he has a 6.31 xFIP. He’s giving up more walks per 9 than he has strike outs.

With that in mind, the Blue Jays today are a team that you need to either go all in on, or fade today. He’s going to put a ton of batters on as he has a 1.71 WHIP since the beginning of August. With the Blue Jays I want to focus on the bats that have been the hottest.

Lourdes Gurriel ($3.3k), Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k), and Bo Bichette ($4k) all have an OPS over 1.100 over the past week. They are hot and if you play the Blue Jays today they should be in your lineup.

My hope is that Breyvic Valera ($2k) makes the lineup today. Over his last 3 games he’s been extremely productive and is essentially a free square if he plays. Montoyo, please play Valera!

While these 3 are may favorite stacks today, there’s a ton of offense to go around. The White Sox vs. Singer should put up a big number as he just puts so many batters on base. Also have to love the Yankees vs. Keegan Akin.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have some really solid pitchers on the mound today. I will more than likely lock in Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray and then load up on the value plays from the Mets. Rays are extremely affordable on FD today and in a smash spot. This Sunday Funday has a great slate of games and we should see a ton of offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, August 13

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a 14 game day slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian while he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

It’s Friday and that means we’re back to having a loaded slate. With tonight’s slate we have a handful of pitchers that I’m looking to work in. It all starts with Robbie Ray ($9.2k). We’re getting Ray at the cheapest he’s been in a couple of months.

He’s seen a little bit of a downward trend of late as he has just a 24% K rate over the past month. That’s down significantly from his 30% yearly rate. If we look into what happened it’s mostly due to match ups. Three of his last 3 outings have been against the Red Sox and they are a top team against lefties. Tonight Ray gets a much softer match up in the Mariners and he should get back on track. Ray will more than likely be my SP1 tonight.

The next two pitchers I’m considering are Shane McClanahan ($7.8k) vs. Minnesota and Anthony DeSclafani ($9k) vs. Colorado. Both guys get soft match ups tonight. DeSclafani gets the softer match up as he gets the Rockies outside of Coors.

The Rockies are a very different team away from Coors and were man handled by Logan Webb last night. DeSclafani’s top pitch is his slider and it’s not a pitch that the Rockies handle. Only Blackmon has a whiff rate less than 30% to the pitch. This is the type of match up that gives DeSclafani a ton of upside.

If we switch gears to McClanahan he’s someone that gives us two things over Disco. A $1.2k savings (we can really use that tonight with some of the bats) and he has a higher strike out ability. Over the past month McClanahan has a 28% K rate and gets to take on a team that has been striking out quite a bit recently.

The Twins have struck out more than 28% of the time over the past week and this match up isn’t great for them.. Similar to DeSclafani, McClanahan will use his slider a ton. Twins as a team do not handle sliders well and it should give McClanahan some upside.

The first place I’m going to look to for offense tonight will be the Cleveland Indians. They get to take on the worst pitcher on the slate, Mr. Tyler Alexander. Over the last month Alexander has been getting shelled. Batters have a 45% hard hit rate and almost 57% fly ball rate. Add in the fact that he also has just a 5.5% swinging strike rate, he’s someone we need to attack.

The box score looked pretty good for Alexander last time out against the Indians. Looks can be deceiving though. He still gave up a couple of barrels, had a 40% hard hit rate against him, and had a 100% LOB. Lightning won’t strike twice tonight.

Alexander’s biggest struggles come against righties as he’s given up a .354 wOBA against them this season and both his fly ball rate and hard hit rate balloon to the upper 40%’s. I’m not going all in on the Indians but I want to pluck a few of the really cheap right handed bats here as they’ll help to set up my primary stack. Myles Straw ($2.6k), Oscar Mercado ($2.3k), and Owen Miller ($2.5k) are all incredibly cheap and will have the platoon advantage tonight.

My priority stack tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Mitch Keller. Brewers will be popular tonight as they are red hot. That said, it’s a large slate and we normally see ownership a little more spread out. Keller has been getting shelled this year by both sides of the plate so I’m not overly concerned with platoon splits here.

Digging in to pitch data, Keller is going to throw his fastball almost 60% of the time tonight. It’s been getting drilled this season. Hitters have a 48% hard hit rate and near .500 slugging % against it. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Brewers lineup tonight as some of the guys are pretty beat up.

If they are all healthy, I’m going to prioritize Garcia ($4.5k), Adames ($5.5k), Escobar ($5.9k), and Narvaez ($4.5k). All four of these guys have slugging %’s greater than .500 against fastballs this year and are set up for solid nights.

If for some reason weather impacts this game or we want to pivot away from a chalky Brewers lineup, I’ll more than likely to move to the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Michael Pineda. Pineda is someone that we’ll want to attack with lefties as his splits are pretty clear. He’s giving up a .243 ISO to lefties this year. If we go Rays, I’ll look to prioritize Lowe ($4.6k), Choi ($3.7k), and Win Daily’s favorite hitter Austin Meadows ($4.5k). All three have the platoon advantage and set up well from a pitch mix stand point.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight we have some solid pitchers on the mound and we finally have a pool of more than 1 to select from. Depending on how ownership shakes out through the day, I’ll be selecting from a pool of Ray, McClanahan, and DeSclafani. My core batters will come from the Brew Crew, Rays, and Indians.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

With today’s slate we have a little bit of everything. Some great pitching with solid match-ups and strong offenses facing some poor pitching.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($10.8k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Robbie Ray draws a fantastic match-up tonight with Mariners coming to Buffalo. Ray is one of my favorite GPP pitchers in the league right now. Every time out he has double digit K potential.

Over his past 30 day he’s been especially dominant with a 36% K rate and just a 2.58 xFIP. With Ray on the mound there’s always the potential for the occasional long ball as he’s given up 4 in his last 28 innings of work. That said, with the match-up tonight I’m not overly worried as the Mariners have really struggled this season. Against lefties they have a 27% K rate to go with a wOBA that is below .300.

What has me sold on Ray tonight is that the Marines really struggle against sliders. Outside of Crawford and Moore, the entire projected lineup tonight has a whiff rate over 40% to left handed sliders. This is a great spot for Ray tonight and I’m all in.

Brandon Woodruff ($11.4k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Another pitcher that draws an absolutely beautiful match-up is Brandon Woodruff. While he’s pricey, he’s facing a team that has struck out almost 36% of the time over the past week. That is significantly higher than any other team as the White Sox come in second at 29%.

Woodruff, like Ray, has been dominant over the past 30 days. His K rate is greater than 31% and his xFIP is sitting at 2.68. Peralta was able to strikeout 8 Cubs in just 6 innings of work. With Woodruff being a more efficient pitcher than Peralta, I have no doubt in my mind that a replication of last night’s outing is the floor for Woodruff. While I’m siding with Ray tonight due to the $600 savings, Woodruff is a very close second.

Jose Urquidy ($9.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Orioles put up a big number last night. They do that from time to time. Most of that was against a suspect bullpen and a pitcher a couple years past his prime. Tonight the Orioles will be facing Urquidy who has really turned things around over the past 30 days.

While his xFIP on the year is 4.54, over the past 30 days it has come down to 3.5. His last outing was one of his best of the year, going 7 innings with 6 K’s and no runs. Who was it against? This same Orioles team in a much better hitting environment.

While it’s always risky to use a pitcher facing a team just 5 days later, Urquidy’s pitch mix leads me to believe we should expect a similar outing. Urquidy mostly throws sliders to righties and it’s a pitch that the Orioles have not done well against. Look for Urquidy to continue his stretch of 40 point outings.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Cleveland Indians vs. Jose Urena – Urena is one of my favorite pitchers to attack as he’s really struggled this year, and even more so of late. Over the past 30 days his xFIP is sitting at 7.29 compared to 5.37 on the year. Nothing is working for him right now.

While he’s normally a groundball pitcher, he’s been giving up a lot more fly balls of late. In his last 14 innings of work he’s given up 4 homers. For a groundball pitcher, that’s quite a bit!

The three guys that really standout in this lineup that have excelled at hitting the sinker are Jose Ramirez ($3.9k), Eddie Rosario ($3.1k), and Bobby Bradley ($3.5k). All three have ISO’s over .230 and low whiff rates to the pitch. I’d recommend including Amed Rosario ($2.6k) to the stack as he’s cheap and hits near the top of the order.

San Diego Padres vs. Tony Santillan – So far Santillan has been able to skate by with limited damage. Regression is going to happen and I do believe it happens tonight against the Padres powerful lineup.

Here’s why I think regression is going to happen. In his first 13 innings of work Santillan has a BB/9 of 5.27, a FB rate of 51%, a LOB % of 95.7, and a hard hit rate of nearly 38%. So he’s walking guys, giving up a ton of fly balls, and getting hit hard. With metrics like that it’s only a matter of time.

Padres present a worst case scenario for him as they’ve been pretty good against righties. They have a .729 OPS and a wOBA of .318. We’re talking about a small sample size, but he’s been especially bad to lefties as they have a 50% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. Cronenworth ($3.3k), Hosmer ($2.7k), and Grisham ($2.7k) should highlight any Padres stack you roll out tonight. Tatis ($4.7K) is always in play too, just very expensive.

Oakland Athletics vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Love the A’s to put up a big number tonight. With Folty on the mound we know that at least 1 A’s player will hit a homer. It’s almost a given as Folty is giving up a homer once every 3 innings. That’s a pretty high rate, highest of any pitcher on the slate.

His match-up tonight against the A’s is not an easy one. The A’s on the year have been really good against righties. They’re hitting for power with a .174 ISO and an OPS of .726. Folty is giving up a ton of fly balls to lefties this year so I’m going to center my stacks around both Tony Kemp ($2.4k) and Matt Olson ($4.2k). Both guys profile extremely well against Folty. If Moreland ($2.5k) is in the lineup he too profiles very well tonight.

I didn’t write up the Angles but Ohtani ($4.3k) and Walsh ($3.4k) should both homer tonight against Taillon.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather tonight as there’s a chance of storms in most of the games on the east coast. This should be a fun slate though as we have both solid pitching in great match-up’s and really poor pitching that will be heavily exploited.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Friday – 6/18

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

For a slate as big as today, pitching options are somewhat scarce. The top pitcher on the slate is in Coors and the second “best” pitcher can no longer use spider tack. That said, the goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This pick doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies as the Orioles have actually been really good against lefties. But Ray has been one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers this year.

Ray changed his game plan this season to throw considerably less curveballs and more fastballs. The dividends have definitely been there as his walks are at a career low. While he still is prone to the home run ball, not having meaningless runners on via the walk means most of these are solo shots.

This is the most expensive we’ve seen Ray all year. His price up due to his recent performance though. Over the past 30 days he has a 36% K rate. He’s more expensive than I’d like, but we’re getting a pitcher that has elite K ability and that’s what we look for in DFS.

Corbin Burnes ($9.5k) vs. Colorado Rockies – While Ray is the most expensive he’s been all year, Burnes is the cheapest he’s been all year. At only $9.5k, we’re getting a steep discount on someone who has a 41% K rate on the year.

Rockies are a team that we can attack. After Woodruff gave up 5 in the first last night, he settled down to blank the Rockies for the next 4 innings. There’s always risk to using a starter in Coors but between Burnes’ whiff rate of nearly 19% and his high ground ball rate of around 51%, I think he’s set up nicely to do well in Coors. Again, not safe due to the environment but I like Burnes to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Texas Rangers – Outside of his start against the Royals a couple of weeks ago, Berrios has been pretty good this year and he has seen a nice uptick in his performance of late.

The lineup that he’s projected to face today has a K rate of more than 26% to righties on the year with an ISO south of .150. This sets up nicely for him to have a repeat performance of his last outing where he struck out 8 through 7.

One of Berrios’ favorite pitchers to throw is his curveball. Rangers, for the most part, struggle with this pitch. Only Nate Lowe has a wOBA greater than .300 to this pitch this year.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Carlos Martinez – Braves somewhat under-performed last night. It wasn’t for a lack of trying though as they did put a ton of runners on. Where they struggled last night was with runners on as they hit just .200 with RISP. Hoping that was just a blip and they continue tonight with putting runners on. One or two balls drop and last night would have been a different story for the offense.

They get a great match-up tonight against a pitcher who is a shell of his former self. Don’t let his last outing fool you. Martinez for the year has been bad. His splits have been pretty neutral so I’m not overly concerned with platoon advantages here.

In looking at his pitch mix of mostly fastballs, sliders, and cutters the guy I’m locking in first is Acuna ($4.5k). He’s expensive but has smashed fastballs and sliders all year. Almonte ($2.6k) profiles well too and his low salary will help balance out what you’re paying for Acuna.

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Folty has been brutal this year. He’s been especially brutal in his last couple of outings. The Twins get to face off against a guy that has a mid-5 xFIP who is also giving up just a ton of hard contact with a rate of 47%.

With Folty, we really want to attack from the left side of the plate (he’s bad to both sides though.) To lefties this year he’s giving up a .443 ISO and a 46.5% FB rate. The two main guys I’m going to build around tonight are Polanco ($3.6k) and Alex Kirilloff ($3k). Any Twins stack should have those guys squarely in the middle.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jose Urena – Really love this spot for the Angels tonight. Urena has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past 30 days. He has a 6.75 xFIP and just a 5.8% K rate over that span. He’s someone that just doesn’t miss any bats.

The Angels have a bunch of guys in the lineup that match-up really well to Urena’s pitch mix. Urena has been throwing his sinker about 48% of the time this year. Ohtani ($4k) and Walsh ($3.6k) have slugging %’s greater than .640 to that pitch this year. With them both having the platoon advantage, I’d start my builds with them.

Urena hasn’t made it past 6 innings since the start of May. The good news for us is that the Tigers have the worst bullpen over the past 2 weeks.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is going to be tough tonight, but we have acouple of elite K guys in Burnes and Ray who should do well tonight. The late night hammer of the Angels may lead you to the top!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday, 6/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

This slate brings us a healthy amount of options on both the pitching front and stacking front. We also have my favorite GPP pitcher in Robbie Ray in a bounce back position. Coors Field is back so we’ll also need to determine if we go all in or fade.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Tyler Glasnow ($10.7k) vs. New York Yankees – After a down performance vs. the Toronto Blue Jays Glasnow rebounded with arguably his most dominant performance of the year, 11 K’s and only 3 hits vs. the Royals.

Today he gets to take on a very up and down offense in the Yankees. For the season, the Yankees are striking out more than 25% of the time to righties. They’ve also shown limited power to righties with a sub .700 OPS and just a .141 ISO. The Yankees can be had. They can strikeout in bunches.

Glasnow has elite K ability with a strikeout rate of 36% on the year. While the Yankees can be an intimidating offense at times, they’re not clicking on all cylinders right now. Glasnow is the top arm on the slate and the Yankees propose a nice match-up for him.

Chris Bassitt ($9.3k) vs. Seattle Mariners – If you don’t want to spend all the way up for Glasnow, the next guy to be considered is Bassitt. Bassitt is not yet a household name due to pitching in Oakland, but he’s been one of the top pitchers in the league this year. He has a 26% K rate, a 3.58 xFIP, and a WHIP of only 1.

He’s also done an outstanding job of limiting hard contact. His hard hit rate this year is only 25%. Today he gets to face off against one of the worst offenses in the league, the Seattle Mariners.

Mariners on the year are striking out at a 25% clip to righties and have shown almost no power. Their .643 OPS is the second worst to the handedness of all the teams going today.

This is a great match-up for Bassitt. Salary wise, he’s my top arm today.

Robbie Ray ($9.1k) vs. Miami Marlins – When it comes to pitchers that are considered GPP only pitchers, Ray is at the top of the list.

Ray had his first rough outing of the year his last time out. Giving up 4 ER through 4, but he also managed 5 K’s which helped him still get to the 17 FD points. He proved last time out that even when he’s at his worst, he’s still going to get you some points and all is not lost.

Tonight presents Ray with a great bounce back opportunity. Marlins for the year have been striking out almost 28% of the time to lefties. Ray is never safe, but I like his chances at being one of the top scorers amongst the pitchers going tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

There’s a game in Coors tonight. You don’t need me to tell you that anytime there’s a game in Coors, both teams should be in your consideration. My goal here is to provide you other options if you decide to fade Coors.

Both pitchers in this game have been respectable this year and are high ground ball pitchers. With there being other solid spots for offense, fading the game is very reasonable today.

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales – The A’s get to take on Gonzales today and I really like this spot for them. Gonzales on the season has been giving up a ton of hard contact while also giving up more fly balls than he normally does. His GB rate is at the lowest point of his career. He’s also giving up one of the highest barrel rates of any pitcher on the slate.

This all sets up well for a team that has been really solid against lefties this season. They have a .181 ISO and 114 wRC+. A’s shouldn’t be highly owned and have the chance to put a big number. My favorite here is Mark Canha ($3.7k) who has a great history against the sinker. He should be the priority in any A’s stack.

Minnesota Twins vs. Bruce Zimmermann – One of these days I’m going to get the Twins right. Tonight I feel is that night. Twins are a high strikeout team. Zimmermann will get some K’s tonight. He’s also someone that will give up some home runs. He’s given up 10 already and I’m going to chase that.

The Twins have a lot of power from the right side. Kyle Garlick ($2.3k), Josh Donaldson ($2.8k), Nelson Cruz ($3.5k), and Mitch Garver ($3.1k) all have strong power numbers against lefties.

Twins disappointed big time yesterday; today should be a different story. Playing all 4 of these guys plus Glasnow still gives you $3,150 per player for the rest of your lineup.

San Francisco Giants vs. Andrew Heaney – Don’t look now, but the Giants offense is one of the hottest in the game. They’ve scored 8, 11, 5, and 6 runs in their last 4 games.

Tonight they get a good match-up against Heaney. While Heaney has gotten a little unlucky this year with his xFIP a run and half lower than his ERA, he’s still giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 36%.

Giants are a low strikeout team that has done really well against lefties this year. They have a .778 OPS, a .190 ISO, and a wRC+ of 115. The guys I’m going to target here are Austin Slater ($2.4k), Buster Posey ($3.4k), Mike Yastrzemski ($3k), and Mauricio Dubon ($2.1k).

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Robbie Ray is on the slate so I’m automatically excited for tonight! Pitching I believe is pretty clear tonight with the 3 pitches I mentioned. With so many good hitting spots I do think ownership should be more spread out.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/22 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Robbie Ray

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray vs. Oakland Athletics

Triston McKenzie vs. Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch

Texas Rangers vs. Tucker Davidson

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Verlander vs. Oakland Athletics

Robbie Ray vs. Los Angeles Angels

Michael Wacha vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Jonathan Heasley

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jordan Lyles

San Diego Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

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