Well, I’ll be the first to say it. WHAT. A. WEEK. We carried on our hot streak, having already successfully tipped Ludvig Aberg to win the Genesis Invitational at 22/1 the week prior, with yet another outright winner! This time, it came on the DP World Tour with Jacques Kruyswijk winning the Magical Kenya Open at 66/1. Not only that, but we also had the golfer who placed 3rd, 4th, and 7th on our card! It was our most profitable week of the year, with full details in the tweet below. All this bodes incredibly well for this week’s preview of the Cognizant Classic, with it’s unique profile and a key comp course providing excellent guidance for this week’s event.
At the Mexico Open, our top selection Alex Smalley (30/1 with 8 places) looked the best candidate hitting the final round. On the front nine, he was just two shots off the lead and a potential to make a charge at the title. All came undone on the par 5 12th. After being greenside in two, a dreadful chip shot led to an untimely bogey. It really took the wind out of his sails, leading to another poor chip on the par 5 14th and a score of +4 on the 6 hole stretch.
Smalley wound up in 10th, just missing the place money at +600. Nicolai Hojgaard secured a full place finishing 8th at +800 along with a Top 20 at +240. Sigg and Highsmith also secured us Top 20s at +290 and +310 respectively.
We begin the Florida Swing this week on the PGA Tour, as we preview PGA National the host course of the Cognizant Classic. This golf course has hosted the tournament since 2007 (formerly the Honda Classic) along with the Ryder Cup in 1983, the 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000. In short, we have plenty of data to go off this week.
Firstly, the move from the West to East coast sees a change in grass type to Bermuda on the greens. As such, you may want to focus more on ball-striking metrics in recent tournaments and identify potential value leverage opportunities for players who generally putt better on this grass type. This will prevalent in upcoming Florida tournaments such as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, and the Valspar Championship.
Off the tee, premium is given to driving accuracy over distance. With water in play for 15 out of the 18 holes, trouble can be found readily if you aren’t dialed in with the driver. If you can have both accuracy and distance, this is of benefit. However, the key isn’t on bomb and gouge but, instead, restrained power.
Another key statistics at PGA National is SG: Approach. Particularly, we see a huge concentration of shots for SG: APP 150-200 yards. On average, nine approaches will occur from this small yardage bucket. When you consider that the three par 5s will often result in an approach shot of 200+, along with two par 3s over 200 yards, you gain an understanding of why this approach range is pivotal to finding success in the Cognizant Classic.
Over the years of the Cognizant Classic, we have seen a number of players who have found success in The Open Championship then play well in this preview to the Florida Swing. That may initially seem odd, as few aesthetic links can be found between tropical Florida and the commonly frigid conditions of a United Kingdom “summer”.
I believe the explanation here is two-fold. One, Florida often experiences higher than average wind speeds compared to common PGA Tour spots. This is commonly a factor at The Open (or British Open, if you insist). Secondly, PGA National asks similar questions in a different way. If you stray to far off the tee around PGA National, chances are you will find the water. Similarly, at The Open you will likely find either a pot bunker or extremely thick fescue grass and gorse bushes. Either way, this often results in a penalty of a stroke from an unplayable lie or inability to advance the ball.
Other good guides to PGA National can be found at the other Florida courses, particularly the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (accuracy and Bermuda greens) and TPC Sawgrass (accuracy, water hazards, similar approach metrics, and Bermuda greens).
On the Korn Ferry Tour, the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also played nearby and offers similar aesthetics. Benny An, Andrew Novak, Maverick McNealy, and Mark Hubbard connect these courses nicely.
Well, as promised, there is one particular golf which displays an extremely strong correlation to PGA National. And, of all places, it is a golf course in Scotland. That is the host of last year’s Open Championship, Royal Troon.
Firstly, we should discount the eventual Champion Golfer of the Year Xander Schauffele. He has only played at PGA National once. It was his first season on the PGA Tour in 2017 and arrived following four missed cut, a 60th, and 66th. Obviously, he developed into quite a different player to his sole appearance here.
The past three winners of The Open Championship when hosted at Royal Troon were Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, and Todd Hamilton. All three have also won at PGA National! Further, Todd Hamilton was arguably one of the biggest shocks in major championship history. He was priced at a whopping 500/1 to win the event. He only won one other PGA Tour tournament in his career. You guessed it, at PGA National.
Looking at last year’s leaderboard from The Open Championship, here is a brief breakdown of the top finishers and their respective links to PGA National:
| Golfer | The 152nd Open Championship 2024 | PGA National Success |
| Xander Schauffele | 1st | Only played once in 2017, his debut season |
| Justin Rose | 2nd | 3 x Top 5s |
| Billy Horschel | 2nd | 5/8 recent starts 16th or better, including 3 x Top 10s |
| Thriston Lawrence | 4th | Never played |
| Russell Henley | 5th | Won (2014), 5 x Top 20s |
| Shane Lowry | 6th | Last 3 consecutive Top 5s (2-5-4) |
| Jon Rahm | 7th | Never played |
| Sungjae Im | 7th | Won (2020), 8th in 2021 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 7th | Never played |
| Matthew Jordan | 10th | Never played |
| Adam Scott | 10th | Won (2016), 5/6 recent starts 14th or better |
| Daniel Brown | 10th | Never played |
| Jason Day | 13th (22nd in 2016) | Only played once in 2008, his debut season |
| Alex Noren | 13th | 3/5 recent starts 9th or better |
| Byeong Hun An | 13th | 4/6 recent starts 21st or better, including a 4th and 5th |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 16th | 2nd in 2020, 5/6 made cuts |
| Collin Morikawa | 16th | Never played |
| John Catlin | 16th | Never played |
| Dean Burmester | 19th | Never played |
| Daniel Hillier | 19th | Never played |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 19th | Never played |
| Sepp Straka | 22nd | Won (2022), 5th in 2023 |
| Ewen Ferguson | 22nd | Never played |
| Padraig Harrington | 22nd | Won (2015) |
Essentially, the top 24 golfers had found success at PGA National if they had played it more than once. It is rare to see two courses with such strong correlation.
This extended to players with little form at other Open Championship venues. Even 2015 Honda Classic winner, Padraig Harrington, put together a solid week despite being aged 52!
We used this correlation to great effect at The 152nd Open Championship, resulting in our most profitable betting week of 2024 gaining +174.89 units.
There looks to be little chance of a significant weather wave advantage developing at this year’s Cognizant Classic. There will likely be some overnight rain on Wednesday and, combined with lower gusts Thursday AM, should see those going off first on Thursday have the best of the day. This is especially pertinent for First Round Leader bets.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are all forecast to play very similar to each other. Prevailing winds should be sustained in high single digits. Gusts will average between 12-18 mph but will be consistent all day.
Thank you for reading my Cognizant Classic preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
Every week, our resident experts compete against YOU as part of Team Audience in a live PGA DFS draft. Rewatch this week’s episode of the PGA Draftcast below as we preview the Cognizant Classic from a DFS perspective.
You can watch the episode here
It’s always a pleasure to cover PGA Tour golf tournaments for you, but even more so after a huge win! Ludvig Aberg duly won for us at last week’s Signature Event at the Genesis Invitational paying 22/1. As we delve into this week’s Mexico Open, it was wonderful to see so much success in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord.
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Now into its 4th rendition held at this course, we should have a fair understanding of how the course usually plays. And there are some key indicators you can preview which are beneficial to playing well at the Mexico Open.
Vidanta Vallarta is a resort-style golf course. Greg Norman never designed this with any thought to how a PGA Tour golfer may approach the venue. The rough is non-existent and any wind provides the only modicum of protection. Essentially, you will need to score low this week to find yourself with any chance at contention.
Playing as a par 71 at 7,456 yards, pound for pound it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average. The course is at sea level, so it will play the entirety of that distance.
Unsurprisingly, for our Mexico Open preview driving distance is ranked highly. However, the yardage goes further than that simplistic answer.
This also has significant implications for approach shots, particularly for SG: APP from 150-200 and 200+ yards. You will see a high concentration number of long-iron approach shots this week. 65% of all iron shots will occur from over 150+ yards. That includes an additional 2 shots from 150-200 yards and, on average, an additional 1.5 shots from 200+ yards compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.
Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be complete without speaking about the grass. Vidanta Vallarta features paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to be very slow compared to Poa Annua, Bermuda, or Bentgrass.
Several “Princes of Paspalum” have developed over the years. A huge advantage can be gained in identifying them. This has provided us with huge success at the Mexico Open over the years.
One of the best tournaments to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is the Corales Puntacana Championship. Corales Golf Club is another long golf course playing at 7,670 yards for a par 72, with a large concentration of long-iron approach shots, and features paspalum.
The most recent host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is a 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum. Grand Reserve Country Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open, is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events and Akshay Bhatia links these nicely.
The benefit of utilizing these comp courses goes beyond featuring similar topography as other exposed tropical golf courses. Additionally, they are more likely to feature cross-over players given they are typically weaker field events to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.
To find a way to differentiate yourself this week, consider looking at courses used on the Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, in Chile, and the Astara Championship in Colombia two weeks ago which can provide guidance.
Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp as should Royal Golf Club Bahrain from the DP World Tour. Both long tracks have been dominated by bombers, featuring large Paspalum greens with little danger off the tee.
Finally, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. This can be partially attributed to the Mexico Open being a lesser field than other tournaments that surround it on the schedule.
With next to no wind in the forecast this week, the sole possible defense of this golf course is notably absent. Expect the golfers to take advantage as a result and score low.
For purposes of First Round Leader (FRL) bets, I recommend looking at the early morning tee times. Any moisture in the ground is likely to be there first thing before drying out during the day. Further, is any winds are to arrive it will be in the afternoon as is common in golf courses next to the ocean with onshore breezes.
As always, in The WinDaily Sports Premium Discord channel, we provide weather updates right up to the first tee times using premium weather modeling. To make sure you have the best information is essential to finding success. This is particularly important in DFS, where the difference in one golfer making the cut to play the weekend has a sizeable impact.
Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.
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Before we delve into our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview, congratulations to Harris English backers at the Farmers Insurance Open. Over at WinDailySports, it is perhaps fair to feel a little aggrieved this week. Our best bet for the week was Ludvig Aberg at 12/1, who opened with an outstanding first round of 9-under. Bear in mind that English eventually won the tournament at just 8-under. Midway through the second round, Aberg’s odds had dropped as low as -160.
And then, the flu happened. Aberg caught the bug going around the field and was visibly struggling on course to just complete his round. 10 players withdrew from the tournament, the majority based on the illness.
It is one of those unfortunate moments that comes when betting on live sport. However, our course comps were completely on point once again and the statistics identified proved very useful in compiling a successful DFS week.
It is a Signature Event this week. This sees a limited field, the best in the game return, and $USD20m in prizes to be won. It is a very important event in the context of the season and a great opportunity to make some money for golfers and punters alike!
Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.
You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview marks the last tournament in course rotation season. This tournament will see golfers alternate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on Pebble Beach Golf Links.
Given only one round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played at Spyglass Hill, I will provide a brief preview only. As at Pebble Beach, the course is a short par 72 measuring just 7,041 yards. Unlike Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill is less exposed and features tree-lined fairways. Driving distance is more of an advantage there, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.
The reason is the quirky nature of Pebble Beach Golf Links. Pebble Beach is the shortest par 72 PGA Tour golf course at just 6,972 yards. It sees the largest reduction in driving distance to any other course. Cliffs and hazards determine that it simply can’t be overpowered by driver.
Take a look at the photo of the 8th hole below to see why:
Pebble Beach Golf Links features numerous holes like this. Essentially, all golfers hit tee shots to the same area and play their approach shots there.
The protection of Pebble Beach comes from two key areas. One is the weather. The extremely exposed cliffs are at the mercy of the elements. Secondly, these are the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. These greens are a minuscule 3,500 sq ft, which effectively play even smaller due to undulations and mounding.
Given the small size of the targets, around the green and putting see a boost this week. Golfers will miss greens this week! And the ability to have a superb short game and make your putts is vital to keep momentum.
However, my advice would be that there is one statistic that has the largest correlation to success around Pebble Beach. And that is SG: APP from 100-150 yards.
Given the unique nature of the holes, we see a HUGE disparity in the number of approach shots from this range. Actually, it represents the greatest concentration of shots from a particular approach range we will experience all season.
1/3rd of shots will occur from 100-150 yards and 50% of all shots will occur from under 150 yards this week. Your ability to control your wedges is vital to finding yourself towards the top of the leaderboard this week. It also goes some way to explaining the struggles of Rory McIlroy here. If there is one gap in Rory’s game, it is his accuracy with his wedges. He has played this tournament twice, missing the cut and finishing a measly 66th in his other appearance.
This also supports the correlation with driving accuracy. The key to accuracy with wedges is your ability to control the spin generated. Doing so from the fairway is much easier than when you are in the rough.
Firstly, note that any prior course form is quite transitive here. This event has moved from a lesser full-field event to a signature event. Given their struggles to attract higher-end players, the field tended to change often depending on individual golfer’s status on the PGA Tour. I do think we can take benefit from players who played well here previously, especially if they have found success when putting on these poa annua greens which can be a little tricky.
The RSM Classic has proven a good guide to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It also features two golf courses, one more exposed and another played in-land with tree-lined fairways. Short game is imperative at both courses, and being seaside is another positive.
The other is the RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town Golf Links. This benefits for several reasons. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large reduction in driving distance and focus on placement off the tee. Greens are very small, resulting in precise iron play and short game being over-emphasised as a predictive factor.
With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week. Both Thursday and Friday, morning presents the best conditions. Winds will be lower before picking up in the afternoon, as well as making the most of any residual moisture in the ground which remains overnight.
If you were to draw any potential advantage, I believe it would be starting on Pebble Beach and playing your second round at Spyglass Hill. The winds currently forecast look to be ever so slightly higher on the Friday. As such, golfers may benefit from being a bit more sheltered on Friday by playing the Spyglass Hill Golf Course.
Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.
Thank you for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.
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Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!
Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.
You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!
Before we delve into our Farmers Insurance Open preview, a hearty congratulations to Sepp Straka backers at The American Express. The victory marked his 3rd victory in as many years, a player surely in the frame to again represent Team Europe at Bethpage in the Ryder Cup this year given his immense upside.
WinDaily Sports contributor Sia Nejad was heavily backing Sepp Straka all week. He was duly rewarded with a 66/1 winner as well as a couple of best-round bets at big odds. Well done Sia!
The Farmers Insurance Open also delivered our best win of 2024, as I successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at MASSIVE odds of 125/1 with 8 places. Looking at our golf course comps below, you’ll understand why we think there is another long shot this year with similar credentials and odds.
Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.
You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
And DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!
A reminder from our Farmers Insurance Open preview that we are firmly placed in course rotation season! This tournament will see the golfers alternate between the North and South courses over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.
Given only one round of the Farmers Insurance Open is played on the North course, I will provide a brief preview only. The North Course is much easier than the South Course. Not to say it is an absolute breeze given the prevalent coastal winds (see what I did there), but it is fundamental to take advantage of the minor relief the North course provides. All of the top 32 on the leaderboard last year shot under par on the North course. The worst score on the North course from the top 12 was a 3-under 69, with most going well under that total.
Part of the reason scoring on the North Course is so key is that the South Course is an absolute brute. To start with, the course is just plain long. Playing at 7,765 yards for a par 72, it is one of the top 5 longest courses on the PGA Tour. But that is just the surface of the issue.
Fairways are narrow, measuring on average just 25 yards across. Miss the fairway, and you’ll be greeted by incredibly penal 4in rough which won’t be cut during the event. Greens are reasonably small at 5,000 sq ft on average. They are firm, fast, and undulating. We also have the first instance of poa annua grass, which can be bumpy and difficult to read. This only gets worse as the day goes on, with greens becoming grainier and picking up marks from previous play.
Given the above course analysis for our Farmers Insurance Open preview, there are some key statistics you can hone in on to provide yourself an advantage. Driving distance is a real asset at Torrey Pines. It is not to say you can’t be successful if you are short but accurate off the tee. However, your margin for error is small and the path to victory is narrow. Only one golfer in the last 15 years hit over 80% driving accuracy at this course.
Previously, drivers who are both long and accurate have had a stronger advantage. There was one specific note from the Course Superintendent this week which stood out for me. He stated, “This is the driest winter he has experienced in his nine years with the last significant rain event in early April.” This will only make the test even trickier. Fairways will be near impossible to hold for the entire field, as balls will run through on firm fairways into taht juicy 4in rough.
Essentially, I am less focused on any driving accuracy this week. I envision a case where simply being long is enough. Much like Bryson DeChambeau used this tactic to his advantage in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot.
Along with driving distance, I think the Clubhead Speed is an interesting statistic to consider. The benefit of this is twofold. One, they will be longer drivers of the golf ball. If you are going to miss the fairway anyway, it is better to be closer to the green. This is especially true with greens small and firm. The ability to approach greens with a more lofted club will be an advantage. Secondly, the extra thick rough this week means that a higher clubhead speed will mean a greater chance of advancing the ball.
Torrey Pines has a quite sticky course history. Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have usually had a few opportunities to preview the course before finding success.
As a regular US Open venue, and US Open-like conditions this week, you can apply a blank filter on performance at all US Open venues. It was probably a little unsurprising that our 150/1 selection here in 2024 Matthieu Pavon then finished 5th at the US Open later that year.
Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot are all akin to the test likely faced by the golfers this week. Part of our success in finding Pavon came from his performance on key long driving courses on the DP World Tour. Emirates Golf Club, Albatross Golf Resort, and Dom Pedro shape as options.
Particularly good guides are found at Jumeirah Golf Estates and Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. Jumeirah Golf Estates is where Pavon finished 5th to pip Rasmus Hojgaard to the post with the final PGA Tour card for finishing top 10 on the Race to Dubai rankings. Pavon had a 2nd and then a win at the Open de Espana, where we also successfully tipped him at 80/1.
Jon Rahm also links those two courses nicely. He is a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, with a superb record of W-29-5-2-7-W (US Open)-3-7-10. He is a three-time winner at the Jumeirah Golf Estates (with a measly 5th in his other attempt), and has two wins in Madrid with a record of W-17-W-9-2.
With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our Farmers Insurance Open preview this week. However, I do think there is an option to find a weather edge of sorts. Of the opening two rounds, Thursday looks by far the most windy. Winds are set to prevail at 10-12mph but gusts are predicted to top 30mph.
Now, you might think the idea would be to avoid the South Course in windy conditions. However, I take the other route. The North Course is fundamentally key to compiling a score at this event. The South Course will play very tough irrespective of what the weather is doing. Therefore, I would much rather my players for the North Course in the calmer winds forecast for Friday. The earlier that players are out the better for both days, but particularly Thursday when the winds will begin to kick in from approximately 11:30am onwards.
Heavy winds are again forecast for Saturday with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which may linger into Sunday morning.
Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.
Thank you for reading my Farmers Insurance Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.
JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!
Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.
You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!
Firstly, a very Happy New Year to all our wonderful regular and new readers. And welcome back to full field golf tournaments for 2025!
Personally, I am excited for what 2025 will bring after a couple short weeks of R+R for myself. It was a big year, covering both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in full as well as moving house twice and buying a new home. All wonderful things!
From my perspective, the FedEx Cup Fall series is improved on prior years. There seems to be more on the line, a final chance for some favourites and regular names to retain PGA Tour playing privileges. But, the reality we all realise is fields are decidedly weaker than what we experience on the rest of the schedule. So, it is wonderful to have a few more well-known names joined by some up and coming talent this week in Honolulu.
Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.
Profits were down on 2022 (ROI 24.9%) and 2023 (ROI +32.7%). This is easily understandable. It came down to one golfer, who you might have heard of, named Scottie Scheffler.
When a golfer wins 56% of his tournament starts from March onwards, all as a very short single odd favourite, it makes turning a profit all the more difficult. The vast majority of golf punters ended the year in a loss. So, I am really proud to have delivered this result for our Premium customers in a tricky year.
You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!
Every year, Sony Open previews I read will immediately refer to trends. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “8 of the last 11 winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior.” My advice is to approach these with caution. Remember, correlation does not necessarily mean causation!
Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players on the PGA Tour from the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and, often, win in a typically weaker field.
Certainly, I acknowledge there can be a modicum of advantage gained in having played the week prior. Golfers get the chance to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust.
However, I do believe this trend is over-played. Punters and DFS players often completely end up excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That can be seen as an overreaction, to what I regard as a tentative link at best.
In poker, it is often spoken about playing the man not the cards. My advice this week is to play the course, not the trend!
Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is starkly different to last week’s host at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Arctic references may not seem as applicable in these warm climes of Hawaii, but the courses couldn’t be more polar opposite.
Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023 and 6th in 2024.
Unsurprisingly, driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees and doglegs in both directions. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. This grass really grabs the club and can produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational.
SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. This may be emphasised with some wind in the forecast and I predict we also see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold due some rain.
Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than almost any other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.
Make sure you take a strong look at those who have found prior success at this golf course. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin, followed by Waialae Country Club.
Keep your eye on players who have played well on other shorter courses. Particularly, those with dog legs in both directions and by the sea with higher winds. RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.
El Camaleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. That was before course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in a tropical environment.
To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Originally, it did seem a significant weather edge would develop. Thursday look set for thunderstorms, heavy rains, and high winds. This was likely to have resulted in an advantage for those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM, as they were likely to have delays and see those golfers get to play majority of their opening rounds on the calmer Friday.
However, those predictions have largely subsided. Thunderstorms now look set to arrive later on Thursday evening after play has concluded. I do still prefer the Thursday PM/Friday AM times as they will get lower winds Thursday afternoon and softer conditions on Friday after overnight rain.
Make sure you are honing in on the key approach numbers listed above. I also give a boost to SG: ATG and SG: Putting over typical tournaments at Waialae, with a higher likelihood of missed greens and needing to scramble to maintain momentum with par saves.
Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.
Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
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Well, before jumping into our John Deere Classic preview, there is one thing we need to say first: WHAT. A. WEEK!
It was a fabulous week all round for our selections at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cam Davis was in our selections at a MASSIVE 70/1 and secured his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the same venue he won at in 2021. We also completed the quinella, with Min Woo Lee finishing runner-up within our selections. We cashed a full place on him at +360.
After three weeks of having hit a first-round leader top 5, we cashed in on Bhatia as first-round leader at 45/1. Sam Stevens finished in 10th, just one shot outside a place finish at 14/1. We cashed a Top 20 at +320 for him.
It is hard to find fault in a week like that. However, I might make an exception for Joel Dahmen. Sitting 7th entering the final round, he was the worst putter in the field by some margin on Sunday when he lost -4.70 SG: Putt. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place at 32/1. Even losing 2 strokes putting (still a substantially dreadful putting day), he would have locked in a Top 20 at +650. Instead, we had to settle on a Top 40 at +200.
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Much is made of this event, from notably receiving a hard time for the low quality of the field and the ease of scoring at TPC Deere Run. Mostly, it is hard to dispute both points.
However, the tournament has still generated it’s own storylines. Steve Stricker famously won 3 consecutive tournaments here from 2009-2011. Jordan Spieth won in both 2013 and 2015. Spieth appears here for the first time since that 2015 win. Largely, that is a result of his current FedEx Cup ranking. He sits outside the Top 50, a key mark to automatically earn his way into all the signature events in 2025. He returns in dreadful form, with question marks about an enduring wrist injury. But, it is Jordan Spieth. And in usual Spiethian fashion, just about anything could happen for him.
It is also one of the last opportunities to qualify for The Open Championship. An alluring prize for those who are yet to make the field, and one that has ensured a somewhat improved field in recent years.
TPC Deere Run has ranked consistently as one of the lowest scoring venues on the PGA Tour in all iterations of the tournament. In the last 14 tournaments, no one has won at a score higher than -18 and typically something in the range of -20 to -25 is required for victory. The cutline has been -3 or -4 for the last 5 years.
In short, you need to make birdies and do so often to remain in contention here. It should be no surprise then that all of the last 7 winners here ranked 15 or better for the week in greens in regulation.
Given fairways are generous average of 36 yards, what may be more surprising in our John Deere Classic preview is that driving accuracy ranks as a high correlation to success. However, the course has ranked in the 9th or lower for rough penalty on the PGA Tour for all seasons in the last 8 years. This is also another factor of the scoring.
Fact is, when you need to make birdies in bunches, you are best placed to do so from the fairway. The course is not overly long, being a 7,289 par 71. This factors into our final point of our John Deere Classic course preview. That is short iron play is supremely important at TPC Deere Run.
A huge 35% of approach shots will occur between 100-150 yards. With a further two approach shots projected between 50-100 yards, that is 45% of approach shots with a wedge in hand. This is particularly intriguing, given the majority of recent golf courses have seen the opposite with a disproportionate number of long irons.
The recipe to success here is find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the subsequent putt.
First thing to note is that TPC Deere Run has one of the lowest correlations between prior success as a predictor of future performance. This might be somewhat confusing given this tournament has been held 23 times at this venue, so a wealth of data is available.
However, given the low scoring here and generally weaker fields, it should be factored into your decisions when you preview the John Deere Classic the prior performances should rated less highly than at other venues.
Finding success here can be linked to a number of other low scoring venues, where driving accuracy and wedge play are the key. Courses such as Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) come to mind here.
Furthermore, Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) could be an important course comp. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker, both multiple time winners of the John Deere Classic, have also won there.
Weather could well play a factor to our John Deere Classic preview this week. When you have to score so low, getting the right side of the weather wave can be essential to finding a winner in betting or DFS markets.
Currently, Thursday morning looks to be the best conditions by far across the first two rounds. Winds will increase to low teens for gusts that afternoon, with a chance of heavy rain and possibly delayed play. On Friday, winds increase even further.
Friday presents the highest winds in the afternoon, with prevailing winds between 14-17 mph and gust between 20-25 mph. However, winds will still be high on Friday morning. It is a very short window before winds begin to increase throughout the day.
As such, I think the best strategy here is for those going out early Thursday. Hopefully, they can make the most of the pristine calm conditions. The goal is to then hold on throughout Friday. The vast majority of players will be completing at least 9 holes in very high winds. Further, those going out Thursday afternoon could slip into the windy conditions Friday morning if substantial delays are experienced.
Over the weekend, winds should settle. On Sunday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the region. Again, this could result in some delays in play should forecasts remain true.
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Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.
Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.
Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.
True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.
TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.
Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!
The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.
Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.
As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.
Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.
As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.
Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.
There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.
Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
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