PGA GPP

A star studded field for the Byron Nelson this week as the PGA pros get in a little Texas tune-up and prepare for next week’s PGA Championship. This week I’m focused on APP and PUTT as the rough is not penal and the green complexes are large. Expect relatively good GIR percentages across the board, but it will really be about scoring stats and creating opportunities. More on the course breakdown on the PGA Draftcast Tuesday night at 8:00.

Scottie Scheffler (10900) – Hard to doubt him at this point and he rates out very well SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB gained. APP and PUTT are important here and his recent form is elite in both areas. Add to that he gets to play in his home state. He’s the highest priced for very good reason.

Justin Thomas (10600) – He checks all the boxes. Great on APP, SG Par 5, BOB Gained and DK points. The PUTT can be up and down, but that goes for most players, even the elite ones. I like Scottie more than JT, but they are both great plays. I think Jordan Spieth is in a good spot for a pivot if his ownership is significantly lower than Scottie and JT. More on that Wednesday with @SicilyKid’s ownership article.

Hideki Matsuyama (9900) – He checks the main boxes here as he is good on APP and pretty good with the PUTT. Love him if ownership is low. We need to monitor his neck condition to make sure there hasn’t been an aggravation since his last time out, but it appears that all systems are go for him at the moment.

Sam Burns (9500) – Another guy who checks all the boxes with excellent ball striking and is elite with Par 5 scoring, DK Points and BoB Gained. Likely to be pretty chalky along with Zalatoris, but if I’m eating some chalk in between those two, I’m taking Burns and it’s not close.

Joaquin Niemann (9300) – The PUTT may be a big problem, but outside of that he’s a great course fit. Checks the boxes in the BS department and can put up birdies and DK points quickly. If he’s chalky I’ll likely pivot away as the PUTT scares me just enough to not play him at elevated ownership.

Talor Gooch (8600) – If he’s super chalky I’m more than happy to pivot but his game does set up well for the Byron Nelson. He’s well below average OTT, but that shouldn’t hurt him here. The APP game is very good and he does well in the Par 5 scoring and DK scoring departments.

Jhonnatan Vegas (8400) – His downfall is typically the ARG game which shouldn’t come into play too much here. He was amazing on APP last week and curiously bad OTT coming off surgery. If he stays dialed in on APP he’ll be tremendous value at this price.

Adam Hadwin (8000) – He’s shown significant upside from the outset of the calendar year including three Top 10s in a row. He’s been a monster on APP and can spike with the PUTT. An extremely good value at this price and likely a pretty popular option.

Alexander Noren (7900) – One of my favorite plays on the board for the Byron Nelson. Noren checks all the boxes including APP and PUTT. He’s inside the Top 30 SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB Gained. He was underwhelming at the RBC, but prior to that was a Top 25 machine.

Kurt Kitayama (7400) – Extremely risky but can spike with the APP and PUTT. He came in 3rd at the Honda and 2nd at Vedanta which tells you all you need to know about his upside. A GPP play only as his volatility can sink your cash lineup.

JJ Spaun (7200) – Another golfer who has been great in the BS department, can spike with the PUTT and has shown the upside to win as he did at The Valero. The PUTT can go south but he’s shown enough positive variance in that department to be played here at the Byron Nelson.

Patton Kizzire (7100) – He’s gained on APP in 8 of his last 10 measured events. A birdie-fest that relies on good APP game and good PUTT certainly suits him. Pretty great value considering his upside.

Brandon Wu (7000) – He’s made 5 cuts in a row all the while doing big things with his APP and PUTT game. The sample size isn’t huge but i’ll play the value and upside all day.

Doc Redman (6800) – Sneaky play as most will likely ignore him. He’s grades out quite well on APP and with the PUTT last 24 rounds.

Austin Smotherman (6600) – He’s made 3 out of 4 cuts and profiles really well for this course as he can get after it on APP and with the PUTT. Perfect course fit and good value in this volatile range. I’d also consider Malnati and Swafford down here.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 53-20

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

A star studded field for the Byron Nelson this week as the PGA pros get in a little Texas tune-up and prepare for next week’s PGA Championship. This week I’m focused on APP and PUTT as the rough is not penal and the green complexes are large. Expect relatively good GIR percentages across the board, but it will really be about scoring stats and creating opportunities. More on the course breakdown on the PGA Draftcast Tuesday night at 8:00.

Scottie Scheffler (10900) – Hard to doubt him at this point and he rates out very well SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB gained. APP and PUTT are important here and his recent form is elite in both areas. Add to that he gets to play in his home state. He’s the highest priced for very good reason.

Justin Thomas (10600) – He checks all the boxes. Great on APP, SG Par 5, BOB Gained and DK points. The PUTT can be up and down, but that goes for most players, even the elite ones. I like Scottie more than JT, but they are both great plays. I think Jordan Spieth is in a good spot for a pivot if his ownership is significantly lower than Scottie and JT. More on that Wednesday with @SicilyKid’s ownership article.

Hideki Matsuyama (9900) – He checks the main boxes here as he is good on APP and pretty good with the PUTT. Love him if ownership is low. We need to monitor his neck condition to make sure there hasn’t been an aggravation since his last time out, but it appears that all systems are go for him at the moment.

Sam Burns (9500) – Another guy who checks all the boxes with excellent ball striking and is elite with Par 5 scoring, DK Points and BoB Gained. Likely to be pretty chalky along with Zalatoris, but if I’m eating some chalk in between those two, I’m taking Burns and it’s not close.

Joaquin Niemann (9300) – The PUTT may be a big problem, but outside of that he’s a great course fit. Checks the boxes in the BS department and can put up birdies and DK points quickly. If he’s chalky I’ll likely pivot away as the PUTT scares me just enough to not play him at elevated ownership.

Talor Gooch (8600) – If he’s super chalky I’m more than happy to pivot but his game does set up well for the Byron Nelson. He’s well below average OTT, but that shouldn’t hurt him here. The APP game is very good and he does well in the Par 5 scoring and DK scoring departments.

Jhonnatan Vegas (8400) – His downfall is typically the ARG game which shouldn’t come into play too much here. He was amazing on APP last week and curiously bad OTT coming off surgery. If he stays dialed in on APP he’ll be tremendous value at this price.

Adam Hadwin (8000) – He’s shown significant upside from the outset of the calendar year including three Top 10s in a row. He’s been a monster on APP and can spike with the PUTT. An extremely good value at this price and likely a pretty popular option.

Alexander Noren (7900) – One of my favorite plays on the board for the Byron Nelson. Noren checks all the boxes including APP and PUTT. He’s inside the Top 30 SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB Gained. He was underwhelming at the RBC, but prior to that was a Top 25 machine.

Kurt Kitayama (7400) – Extremely risky but can spike with the APP and PUTT. He came in 3rd at the Honda and 2nd at Vedanta which tells you all you need to know about his upside. A GPP play only as his volatility can sink your cash lineup.

JJ Spaun (7200) – Another golfer who has been great in the BS department, can spike with the PUTT and has shown the upside to win as he did at The Valero. The PUTT can go south but he’s shown enough positive variance in that department to be played here at the Byron Nelson.

Patton Kizzire (7100) – He’s gained on APP in 8 of his last 10 measured events. A birdie-fest that relies on good APP game and good PUTT certainly suits him. Pretty great value considering his upside.

Brandon Wu (7000) – He’s made 5 cuts in a row all the while doing big things with his APP and PUTT game. The sample size isn’t huge but i’ll play the value and upside all day.

Doc Redman (6800) – Sneaky play as most will likely ignore him. He’s grades out quite well on APP and with the PUTT last 24 rounds.

Austin Smotherman (6600) – He’s made 3 out of 4 cuts and profiles really well for this course as he can get after it on APP and with the PUTT. Perfect course fit and good value in this volatile range. I’d also consider Malnati and Swafford down here.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 53-20

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

The PGA Tour descends upon Mexico this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. It is the first time the PGA Tour has played here and therefore there is no course history, but there some solid course comps including The Puerto Rico Open and Corales. Vidanta is certainly long (7500 yard Par 71) but its length, and perhaps the wind, will be its main defense, and ultimately, this is still a resort course. For more on course comps and course dynamics make sure you tune into The PGA Draftcast on Tuesday night. As always please also make sure you camp out in Discord and you read our articles over the week, which include Tee 2 Green from Spencer and the Ownership article from Steven. Now let’s get to The Initial Picks.

Tony Finau (10400) – BS has been very good since the summer of 2021 and it’s the ARG and PUTT that have held him back. It looks like he’s starting to turn the PUTT around and the ARG game shouldn’t be too complex with this resort style course. I’ll note that Jon Rahm will be a play for me if his ownership is low, but I’m guessing it won’t be low enough to pay the high price tag. Stay tuned for our ownership article for more on that.

Gary Woodland (9900) – Not many issues with his game lately, but can get pretty wild OTT. A wild driver won’t crush him, especially if he continues to stay dialed in on APP. He’s always an MC risk, but I think that’s unlikely here and he has the upside to win.

Sebastian Munoz (9800) – Absolutely crushing it OTT and can spike with APP. The PUTT has been quite bad since August 2021, but over the last 3 tournaments it appears to be stabilizing. It’s a high price, but the metrics are there.

Cameron Tringale (9700) – He’s got good form coming by way of good ball striking. If the PUTT can be decent or get hot, this is a tourney he can contend in. I’m guessing the high price tag will keep ownership low and I’m only considering him if I’m right about that.

Aaron Wise (9500) – The BS has been elite for four tournaments in a row. He uncharacteristically lost on APP at RBC, but that is a mere blip on the radar as it will always come down to PUTT with Wise. I’m hopeful the Paspalum greens at The Mexico Open give him an edge in that department.

Matt Jones (9000) – There was a time period where Matt Jones would lose on APP in every single tournament. He’s reigned that in quite a bit and has popped on APP and can get after it OTT. He can also pop with the short game.

Sahith Theegala (8800) – He’s making cuts despite recent bad BS and poor PUTT but this feels like a good course for him and he was 22nd at Corales which is a solid comp course. The sample size is small but he’s certainly shown he can contend in fields deeper than this.

Charles Howell III (8400) – He’s 6^th OTT last 50 rounds and 29^th in Driving Distance which most people would be shocked by.  Long iron play isn’t great, but he’s made 7 out of 10 cuts and BS is trending in a great direction.  Only issue this year has been the PUTT. I’ll note that a very dangerous pivot that I’m likely to play in this range is Lanto Griffin (more on him in Discord).

Adam Long (7800) – The BS is trending and short game is very good.  He’s not necessarily the best course fit but he has made 5 out of 6 cuts and he flashed some upside at The RBC.

Austin Smotherman (7800) – He’s been missing cuts as of late, but curiously remains very good in the BS department. His big issue is ARG and that’s likely mitigated on this track.

Nate Lashley (7500) – Coming off an MC at the RBC, but prior to that had four Top 30s in a row which included a T15 at Corales and a T7 at Puerto Rico. Those are probably the two best comp courses to the Mexico Open at Vidanta and they were both played just last month.

Tyler Duncan (7200) – A relatively shorter hitter who has put some really good tournaments together making 5 out of his last 6 cuts including falling inside the Top 35 at Puerto Rico and Corales. While the lack of driving distance would appear to limit him, he rates out great OTT last 50 rounds and he’s 9th in DK Points. Worth a shot at this price.

Ryan Armour (6900) – The 6k range is fraught with murky water and I don’t plan to swim in it, but there are a couple options that may be viable. Armour is one of them and in spite of him being very short OTT, he makes up for it plenty with solid iron play. Finished 15th at Corales.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 52-19

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.