PGA GPP

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the three courses used this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the American Express golf betting tips below.

As always, a few honourable mentions for this week. Adam Hadwin has an excellent desert record and equally as impressive a record here previously. He would’ve been preferred at 70s to the 50s that are on offer in this strength of field. Stephan Jaeger entered the frame given his ball-striking. Questions still remain about the putter with him. Clearly, that is a factor this week more than most. This might be the type of test that should suit Michael Kim at 150/1. However, others were just preferred ahead of him in that price range.

Finally, as mentioned in my preview article the average winning odds here are 130/1. I would, however, again mention that this field has seen increasing strength the last two years. Favourite Jon Rahm was victorious in 2023 at just +650, back when he was busy winning at every tournament he started. Obviously, he is not here to defend his title this week. But many other big names are returning. They dominate the market and, as such, it may still remain difficult for a very long outsider to shock the golf world here. Although we have found some value spots, the American Express betting tips reflect that reality.

The American Express Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best odds at 00:00ET 16 January
Suggested Staking

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Unibet)

Austin Eckroat
0.5pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +162 (Bet365)

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +170 (TAB) or +162 (Bet365)

Joseph Bramlett
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +275 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite

We lead off the card with Sam Burns. Skipping the top of this betting board comes with obvious risks. However, if there was ever an event where we are going to take on the likes of Scheffler and Cantlay, it should probably be this one. Burns sits right below the elite of the game, yet receives a more generous price than some of his counterparts who for me rank in a similar tier. The 33/1 looks a fair few points too high when compared to the likes of Sungjae Im and Tom Kim at 20/1.

Unlike the latter of those two, Burns has plenty of driving distance ranking 11th in this field from the past 6 months. He also ticks the putting box, sitting 10th in SG: Putting in this field over the past year. An average week at The Sentry, when 33rd, can be forgiven when shaking off the rust. If anything, Burns looked consistent if not spectacular, carding 4 rounds in the 60s.

His course form here is superb, with a record of 18-6-MC-11. We see more hints to his potential suitability with a 2nd at the Byron Nelson on his first look there. Further, desert golf in Las Vegas has seen Burns secure a 20th, 34th, and 14th most recently.

The Pete Dye Stadium course, where two rounds are played, should suit him particularly well. Burns won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club, another Pete Dye design. Putting always receives a higher weighting in match-play events. Further, La Quinta Country Club has a large increase in long iron shots, with 35% of approach shots over 200 yards. That is very similar to the Copperhead Course, where Sam Burns has a fabulous record as two time winner of the Valspar Championship.

Min Woo Lee

With his first professional start in 2024, it naturally comes with some risk putting up a golfer who hasn’t played a tournament since early December. However, he is far from the only one in that boat. 2024 has been a ear-marked by many pundits as a potential break-through year for the talented young Australian. A victory in this type of field would give him plenty of confidence that he can go on to even better things.

Much of the hype comes from a very strong end to last year. He won an event in Macao, as he should’ve given the opposition, and then in a stronger field at the Australian PGA Championship. Given his youth, Min Woo doesn’t have much in the way of desert experience from the PGA Tour. However, having been born in Perth Western Australia, he would’ve had plenty of opportunity over the years as well as playing in the famous Melbourne sand-belt region including during his amateur years.

This does look like the type of test that should suit his game. He is the 2nd longest driver, 12th for SG: Putting, and 13th for SG: ATG in this field over the past 12 months. Where he can lack in approach, this has seen continual improvement and his best area is for approach over 200 yards. He began the 2023 season with aplomb, finishing a close 2nd in the desert at a DP World Tour Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi with one of the strongest fields of the season. Let’s hope for another quick start this year.

Cam Davis

We go back-to-back with the young Aussie golfers in our American Express betting tips with Cam Davis. Although he hails from the opposite side of Australia in Sydney, that is also closer to the sand belt region where he has a wealth of experience.

Davis’ sole PGA Tour victory came at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, far from the worse comp for here. Always a low scoring affair, it has become more of a bomber’s paradise over time. We perhaps expected Davis to kick-on from that victory earlier than he has. But, much akin to Min Woo, he had a strong end to 2023 and this could be the year he realizes that raw potential.

That included a run of 8 tournaments from July to November. Davis finished outside the top 12 just once in those events. Most relevant was a 7th place at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas, where he has never missed the cut in 5 appearances. Although missing the cut here last year, that only speaks to the volatility of this tournament. In 2021, he was 3rd at this event to compliment a 28th and 29th in his first two years on the PGA Tour.

A 4th at the PGA Championship and a 6th at The Players Championship suggest he is grown more comfortable in elite company. The latter of those two is hosted at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design. I like that Cam Davis saw marked improvement in both approach and driving accuracy across the two Hawaii tournaments. Look to the man who is the best putter in this field over the last 3 months to provide a strong showing this week.

Beau Hossler

A certain golfer made our 2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips write-up, where I noted he was possibly due for big things that year. The player was Wyndham Clark. He would later cash 80/1 winning tickets for us at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the US Open. I’ve included Beau Hossler among the names of golfers I think could be due for a big year in 2024.

Obviously, Clark was quite the anomaly and I don’t necessarily think that Hossler will go and win a major this year. I do see parallels in his improvement over the past 6 months though, and suspect a maiden victory is imminent.

Notably, we have seen some significant improvement from Hossler’s approach play in 2023. If looking at the past 24 months, Hossler ranks a lowly 123rd in SG: APP for this field. Over the past 3 months, he ranks 20th. In fact, over the past 6 months Hossler is 12th in this field for SG: TOTAL. Possessing plenty of distance off the tee and making plenty of putts, the approach is really the final key in the puzzle for him.

Having a 20th on debut at this event, he also holds a 17th at the Byron Nelson, and most recently was 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open. That started a run of 7-2-15 in his final 3 events of 2023. Whether he can start the season with the same fervor remains to be seen. The fact he is Californian born and raised might suggest some local comfort will be an assistance.

Austin Eckroat

We enter three long-shot selections in our American Express golf betting tips, with the bet weighting favoured towards top 20 and top 40 finishes.

Beginning that list is Austin Eckroat. Hailing from Oklahoma, this is the sophomore season for Eckroat who finished the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in 2nd place. It was a decent rookie season for him, where he finished in the Top 20 in 20% of his starts. Most notably, the 10th placed finish at the US Open would’ve caught the eye of many who were not already aware of this rising star.

That golf course should prove somewhat decent guidance to here. Unlike many other US Open venues, the tournament was also held in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The course was fairly generous off the tee, with driving distance still a requisite skill.

Further suggesting this may be a decent spot, Eckroat had his best finish of the season at the Byron Nelson. His runner-up finish there should be well correlated to what is needed for victory this week.

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value

We can probably keep things pretty simple with K.H. Lee. If the Byron Nelson is correlated to this tournament, K.H. Lee won that event for back-to-back victories in 2021 and 2022.

Adding to those claims, Lee’s recent run at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas has seen him finish 14-37-7 in his last three appearances there. Again, I’m not going to be overly critical of a mediocre record at this golf course. I take solace in the fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4 of 5 appearances, especially given that can be a hinderance to his performance.

Also eye-catching was Lee’s performance last week at the Sony Open. Although finishing 30th may not set the world alight, the irons looked back to their superb best sitting 6th for SG: APP. That was pleasing to see after not playing competitive golf since November. I believe he makes excellent value at 125/1.

Joseph Bramlett

Finally, I will wrap up my selections with a speculative bet on Joseph Bramlett.

Bramlett is 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the past 6 months, an impressive feat in a field with the likes of Scheffler, Cantlay, and Schauffele. It has long been the story for Bramlett that his excellent ball-striking can get left behind with the putter. That comes with some inherent risk at an event like this one. Much like Hossler, being born and going to college in California suggest that this type of surface may provide him with the best opportunity.

The desert form link at Byron Nelson is clear, where he finished 7th on debut followed by a 51st and 19th. Again, he doesn’t possess a stellar record here. However, he has made both previous cuts. Most pleasingly for our golf betting tips, he has putted at or above field average in 3/4 appearances at the American Express.

A 52nd last week was more promising than first viewed, considering it was the first event back after 6 months out with an undisclosed injury. That risk from both the rust from injury recovery and the putter do get built into the price, available at a whopping 200/1.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!