PGA GPP

Before getting into our betting tips for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind The Players Championship golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Betting Strategies for The Players

The market this week is framed by Scottie Scheffler. Priced at just 5/1 with some bookmakers, it represents one of the shortest prices we have seen in recent times and certainly in this standard of field. That comes off the back of a 5 stroke victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he finally gained strokes putting, and having won this event by that same margin in 2023.

Whether the introduction of the mallet putter proves to be a permanent and worthy solution remains to be seen. Surely, if it has then the rest of the Tour will be rather worried. Had Scheffler gained an average of just +1 strokes per round putting he would’ve won upwards of 8 tournaments in recent times. If he putts well, he likely wins here. However, 6/1 represents a fair reflection of his chances.

Additionally, I do believe we need to interpret the betting market in terms of the course as well. This tournament has ranked inside the top 6 for volatility consistently over the years.

Previous Betting Odds at The Players

This is best emphasised in the odds of close contenders. On the face of it winners of Scheffler (10/1), Smith (30/1), Justin Thomas (18/1), and Rory McIlroy (12/1) points to the top of the market dominating this event. But for a few putts, or a ball in the water at an inopportune moment, the list could easily look quite different.

For 2023, Scheffler was a runaway victor, although Hoge at 130/1 was in my selections and finished 3rd. However, in 2022 Anirban Lahiri lost by one stroke at 1000/1. In 2021, Westwood 100/1 and Harman 200/1 went close. Then in 2019, Jim Furyk lost by one at 140/1. Before that, Webb Simpson won at 100/1 in 2018 and Si Woo Kim won at 500/1 in 2017.

My point is, if there was an event to take on the top of the board and find some DFV (being Deep ***ing Value), it is on a volatile golf course such as here.

Honourable Mentions

As always, we like to include some of the names who were close to making our betting card for The Players. Whether you want to include these players in match-ups or for DFS, hopefully this proves useful.

Russell Henley

Russell Henley was extremely close to making our betting card for The Players this week. This is a golf course that suits him well. He has finished 13th and 19th the past two years, as well as a 17th and 24th in the past. Henley also holds four consecutive Top 10s at heavily correlated Sedgefield, going 9-7-5-2 since 2020. He is a much improved golfer now, finishing outside the top 25 just 6 times since the last Players Championship, a 22 tournament stretch.

However, the subsequent cut in odds has been severe. From the 150/1, when I included him in my tips at this last year, compared to just 55/1 on open in 2024 (since cut further to just 40/1) is too hard to swallow for me. Furthermore, I have began to really question his ability to get across the finish line. Sitting as one of the top 20 golfers in the world and hitting the ball as he has been, he really should’ve won at least once by now. That was demonstrated again when I selected him at the Sony Open, where he was leading before fading with a +1 final 6 hole stretch.

Other Contenders

This course looks to also be tailormade for Collin Morikawa. He had his best appearance at TPC Sawgrass in 2023 finishing 13th and holds a 7th at the Pete Dye designed Harbour Town. However, his 8-over 2nd round last week was sufficiently concerning to see him excluded.

Brendon Todd looks to be underrated and drew my consideration. Last week’s 7th place finish was at a golf course far too long for him, relying on his long irons far more than this shorter test where his superb wedges will be in-play. Unfortunately, he is available at 200/1 in the UK and on the exchange but best priced at 150/1 or lower by most bookmakers.

Finally, Christiaan Bezuidenhout drew my attention at 100/1. He also finished 13th here in 2023, and was -7 after one round here in 2020 before the tournament was suspended with the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. He also has finished 28-33-19 in three attempts at Harbour Town as well as a record of 3-40-5 at Wentworth. Continuing a downward trajectory for his SG: APP over the last 5 consecutive events hints enough that his iron-play may be regressing at this time.

The Players Championship Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best pricing 11 Mar 7PM ET
Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – The Players Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3300 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
1u E/W +7000 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Byeong-Hun An
1u E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Brian Harman
1u E/W +8000 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Tom Hoge
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Billy Horschel – The Players Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
3u Top 40 +163 (Bet365)

Nick Taylor
0.5u E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
3u Top 40 +170 (Unibet)

Ryan Fox
0.25u E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 40 +200 (Bet365) or +275 (TAB)

The Players Championship Betting Player Profiles

Hideki Matsuyama – The Players Betting Tips Favourite

In that context, we begin our selections with our only betting tip on The Players card priced under 70/1. I was quite worried about Hideki Matsuyama last week. Oddly enough, not because of injury concerns in this instance. Instead, that should he win or remain competitive that his betting odds for The Players Championship would be unbackable.

It is perhaps fortunate that he found the water twice on the back 9 Sunday to eventually finish 12th. Subsequently, the strength of his approach performance is hidden somewhat by those two shots as outliers to his overall ball-striking.

Overall, he looks to be back to his very best. Beyond the excellent performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he won the Genesis Invitational, with both being signature events and high caliber fields. Compared to those two courses, I actually think this is a better course fit for Matsuyama. He does his best work with his irons under 150 yards, with both those courses leaning more heavy on the long irons than wedges.

He holds a fabulous record at TPC Sawgrass right from debut with a form line of 23-17-7-22-MC-8-MC-5. Hidden in those results is the 2020 The Players Championship which wasn’t, where he set the then course record of -9 in the first round before the tournament was canned. Additionally, he has done well at the correlated Sedgefield with a 3rd, 11th, and 15th there.

As such, I was pleased to see him listed at longer than 25/1 to head up our betting card this week.

Tom Kim

We near immediately enter the speculative plays of The Players betting card. I’m willing to take a punt on Tom Kim at the generous odds of 70/1.

The reason for his pricing here is down to the fact that 2024 has been a relatively poor start of the year. Despite missing just one cut, he has finished no higher than 17th this calendar year. Much of that has come down to the putter, which I raised concerns earlier this season might be a bigger problem for Tom Kim than many are making.

However, of some promise is that Tom Kim is now four tournaments in a row putting at or above the field average. Certainly, it is not the +4 strokes or more per tournament he was gaining putting when he was on a run of 9 consecutive Top 25s in the end of 2023. But it is a positive trajectory I’m happy to roll the dice on at this price. Similar to Matsuyama, his approach play last week is disguised by a ball in the water Friday and two on Sunday. Outside those three shots, he gained +5.48 SG: APP which was 3rd best in the tournament. On a volatile and windy golf course, the misses are something I can give or take.

I’ve spoken extensively of the correlation to Sedgefield Country Club. Tom Kim opened with a quadruple bogey in his sole Wyndham Championship appearance. He would then still go on to win the tournament, by the small margin of 5 strokes. Should he win here, he would be the 4th player to complete that double.

Byeong-Hun An

Byeong-Hun An continues to be disrespected in betting markets despite compiling a superb season. It may be surprising to some, but Benny An has been the 8th best golfer in this field over the last 6 months for raw SG: TOTAL.

Included in that is another solid performance when 8th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That came in spite of losing on approach for 200+ yards for the last 12 months. He is much stronger in the 100-150 yard approach range, which is really what TPC Sawgrass demands.

Back on the DP World Tour, Benny An won the prestigious BMW PGA Championship on his debut there in 2015 subsequently followed up with a 33-24-15 run before moving to the PGA Tour. He additionally holds a 7th at the RBC Heritage. As for the Sedgefield form, that reads 18-MC-3-35 before he was runner-up in 2023.

Although he hasn’t ever fully translated that to performances at The Players Championship, the Orlando FL resident does hold a 30-26-MC-35 run. That was also when he was in nowhere near the form he is now. He has not missed a cut since July 2023, including 5 finishes of 8th or better. His 2022 Korn Ferry Tour victory also came in Florida on a similar enough course. He would love to complete his resurgent return to the PGA Tour in emphatic style here.

Brian Harman

Another who performed his expected output at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was Brian Harman. On a course that is realistically far too long for him, he finished 12th whilst also being 4th in the field for SG: APP.

That really belies the fact that he struggles on approach longer than 200 yards, with his real strength lying with his short game and his wedge play. The fact he actually lost strokes putting was another interesting data point. The fact he sits 7th in this field for putting over the last 12 months suggests some positive putting regression could be just around the corner.

Harman has typically putted well at The Players Championship, gaining strokes putting in 4/5 of his most recent appearances. 8th in 2015 and 2019, as well as a 3rd place finish in 2021, all suggest that he should find some comfort in this venue while arriving off a great recent start.

Complimenting this are finishes of 3rd and 6th at the Wyndham Championship and 7-44-9-23-MC-28-13-35-7 at the RBC Heritage. It would be no surprise to see The Open Championship winner put in another impressive performance in a strong field here.

Tom Hoge

Much like Russell Henley, Tom Hoge was on our card here last year. In 2023, he arrived here having just missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was priced at 130/1 when making our tips and finished 3rd for a juicy full place payout. So to see him only cut to 80/1 when in better form held much appeal.

Instead, we find him here in a great run of 17-56-6-17-8-28 followed by12th at the Arnold Palmer last week. We were on him there too, where he easily cashed his Top 20 ticket and went very close to a full place payout at +1600. Whilst doing so, he lead the field for SG: APP.

He has always played well at TPC Sawgrass, with form of 72-30-22-33-3. The 2020 tournament that wasn’t he opened with another solid -2 start as well. In his only appearance at Wentworth he finished 14th on debut, again suggesting this should be a strong venue for him.

Alongside being the best player in this field on approach over the last 3 months, I noted some significant improvement in driving accuracy over his last two starts. Typically a small loser or at best driving at the same accuracy at field average, he was 12th for driving accuracy last week and 7th for driving accuracy the week prior. He looks very close to putting it all together and I am happy to roll with Hoge again this week.

Billy Horschel – The Players Betting Tips Best Value

Shoutout to Team Audience, who ruined my hopes and dreams on the PGA Draftcast this week by stealing Billy Horschel away from me. You can catch the replay of the show at the end of this article.

Horschel absolutely jumped off the page for me this week. His performance on tight fiddly courses, such as the 18th at the Sony Open earlier this year. That was backed up by a solid Florida outing at the Cognizant Classic, when finishing 9th in his last start.

This passionate Floridian, who also is a former Florida Gator, has never won in the state and is on the record saying how much that would mean to him: “There’s a lot of goals I haven’t checked off and I’ve always wanted to win in the state of Florida, obviously more than once, but before my career is over,” said Horschel, a graduate of the University of Florida and resident of Jacksonville Beach.

If he is to do so, TPC Sawgrass on paper is a great venue. He holds an extremely strong record at Wentworth, never finishing worse than 18th with a 4-W-9-18 run in just four starts. Further, at the Wyndham Championship he has a 5-60-11-6-2-27-4 form line. Although this has never necessarily correlated to great success here, he only has two MC here before the dark years if 2022 and 2023. Included in that was a best finish of 13th.

Overall, this translates to some excellent value at odds as high as 160/1.

Nick Taylor

This will be the 2nd instance of me including Nick Taylor within these pages. It is fair to say the last time went pretty well.

It amazes me that you can secure Nick Taylor at odds as long as 175/1. The RBC Canadian Open win came at a tight driving test with a heavy reliance on wedge play. He recently secured another huge victory at the WM Phoenix Open in a strong field. He backed that up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational when finishing 12th last week. Both of those came at golf courses that actually doesn’t necessarily play to his strong driving accuracy and are, on paper, too long for him.

This is a much better fit, where he can really lean into his driving accuracy and strong approach play under 150 yards. He finished 16th here back in 2019, sitting 3rd in the tournament that week for SG: APP. An 8th and 10th at Sedgefield are another strong pointer towards a golfer who is criminally underpriced.

Ryan Fox

Finally, I can’t resist a small speculative play on Ryan Fox.

Needless to stay, it has not been a great start to 2024 for Fox since securing his PGA Tour card. Having had a lifelong goal of making the PGA Tour, perhaps this is a factor of needing to reset his goals now he has achieved that.

The main reason for the drop-off in that form has been a regression in his approach performance. We saw some more promising signs when last sighted. That came at a similar enough golf course here in Florida at the Cognizant Classic. He finished 12th for SG: APP at that event, gaining more than 4 strokes on approach.

Although there are concerns with driving accuracy for Fox, he has typically performed well enough on courses that demand that. Included in those are a 14th at the Dubai Invitational, on a narrow course with plenty of water, and in 2022 at the Soudal Open on a very tight tree-lined golf course. The latter of those results came when cracking the shaft on his 2-iron in the final round, a club he quite often will go too off the tee when needing to find the fairway. Further, he is the current BMW PGA Championship winner, beating Aaron Rai at Wentworth

A 27th on debut at TPC Sawgrass was impressive for Fox, on a golf course that typically requires a couple of sightings to really understand. Perhaps the famous 2002 victory of fellow Kiwi Craig Perks can provide some inspiration for Foxy here.

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