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PGA GPP

PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Lots of big names in this solid field of 144+ golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties
First two major winners of 2020 (Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa) headline the event
Defending Champ and former winners:
- 2019 – Kevin Na (-23, beat Patrick Cantlay in playoff)
- 2018 – DeChambeau (-21, another Cantlay second place)
- 2017 – Cantlay (-9 in windy conditions, beat Whee Kim in playoff)
The course: TPC Summerlin (Las Vegas, NV)
- Par 71: 7,255+ yards
- Bentgrass greens
- Played at altitude, helping shorter hitters
- Easier setup with shorter Par 4s and three reachable par fives
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, Par 4s (400-450), Bogey Avoidance, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,800) – It’s going to be interesting to watch the new version at altitude, on a course he’s played well in the past. Expect the unexpected, unless that means the beefier Bryson not having his way with the golf course, where he’s had three Top 10s in four tries. I know it could come back to haunt me if he has some sort of meltdown, but I’m all in in all formats – regardless of ownership.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – If you’re looking for a GPP pivot who bears almost no resemblance to what will inevitably be a chalky DeChambeau, then Webb is your guy. His finishes here are a bit pedestrian, but they have improved each since 2015. He might even be a sneaky play if you’re building a cash lineup that features some serious bargain values that I’ll get to down the list.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – There are better golfers in this price range, but none have three straight finishes in the top two on this course, so we have to talk about Patrick. With a much better field than in previous installments, this may be the year he doesn’t contest on Sunday. It won’t be an all-out fade, but I’m not too enthusiastic given his lukewarm play over the past few months.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,800) – The reigning PGA Championship winner missed the cut at the U.S. Open in much more difficult conditions. With Morikawa’s ball-striking prowess and improving short game, this second-shot golf course should be a cakewalk. I’ll be overweight and trying to find ways to get him in along with Bryson.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,600) – Another X-factor who’s going to be a contender at big events for years to come, Wolff notched a Top 20 in his debut at TPC Summerlin in 2019. A great cash game and GPP play, especially if you’re looking for a relative bargain with Top 5 upside.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Harris English (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – The hardest working player on Tour makes a lot of sense despite limited experience at this venue (T15 in 2018, his only start here). I’m expecting a top 20 finish at TPC Summerlin and would feel comfortable being ahead of the field in my ownership.

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,000) – If there’s a golf course where Rickie could make his big resurgence after a series of swing changes, it’s this one. He’s got a fine record here when he’s made the stop, and the ownership should be low, so I’m all aboard in mid-range stocked GPP builds.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,700) – It’s been feast or famine for Ancer at the Shriners over the past four years, but his 2020 game has been on point, so I’m plenty interested in GPPs, where a ball striker like Accurate Abe could be a fine mid-range anchor.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,300) – There’s no course history to speak of, but Zalatoris is on the verge of becoming a tour regular with special temporary membership within his grasp. He missed the cut last week, but he’ll be prepared for this venue that could very well suit his strong T2G game.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman has made seven consecutive cuts made, including a pair of top 15s in the FedExCup Playoffs, and the history at TPC Summerlin is impressive, with top 20s in his last two appearances. The price is just too cheap for a course horse like Harman.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – If you want to shake things up with a GPP play the masses will avoid, McCarthy (who finished T6 last week) is your guy. Possibly the tour’s best putter (he’s led in SG: Putting both of the last two seasons) Dump-it-in Denny has notched a T15 and T9 here since a missed cut in 2018.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Na (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Zach Johnson, Cam Davis, Doc Redman, Cameron Smith

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,400) – Palmer fits in both cash game and GPP builds as a high upside play. He missed the cut at the U.S Open, but the PGA Tour veteran made six straight cuts before Winged Foot, and he finished T37 last year at Shriners.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – This is a great price for a golfer who just sounds like he should tear up the PGA event in Las Vegas. Kidding aside, he’s a talented player with a T18 in last year’s Shriners.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – The fourth-place finish in 2019 drew my attention, but my main concern is that the field could be a little too good for him to contend on Sunday this year. I wouldn’t fault you for using him in cash games at this relative bargain, but I’m not ready to commit in my core builds.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,900) – He’s now made nine consecutive cuts, though the best finish is a T12, making him (just like the Adam above) best deployed in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,900) – Always a favorite GPP play of mine, Tringale can turn it on with the putter and can handle the T2G expectations this golf course offers.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $6,700) – Speaking of getting hot with the putter, have we ever seen a guy fire it up like Frankie? There are massive concerns regarding his recent layoff, but he’s got a T4 in his only appearance here in 2016 and is an enormous bargain under $7K.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – He’s got some excellent finishes here (T18-T7-T4), and his form has been solid, with two top 20 finishes in his last five starts. We had to like that combination, don’t we?

More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner (cash), Sam Burns (GPP), Joel Dahmen, Pat Perez, Kyle Stanley, Maverick McNealy (GPP), Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge (GPP), Matthew NeSmith

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Beau Hossler (DK $6,500) – The Hossman has made his last four cuts, and he’s got three finishes in the Top 30 at the Shriners in the last three years (T29-23-T7). That’s a solid rationale to play him at just $6,500.

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – His last few tournaments haven’t inspired confidence, but he’s played better and better at every Shriners and 2020 has been somewhat of a breakthrough.

Patton Kizzire (DK 6,300) – Another bargain play who could help fill out your studs and scrubs GPP lineups, Kizzire has fared well at Summerlin, with two Top 5s (T2 in 2015, T2 in 2017) in his last four tries.

Additional punts: Mark Hubbard, Kevin Chappell, Will Gordon, William McGirt (GPP), Brian Gay (GPP), Wyndham Clark

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

Sia 5 years ago

written by Sia

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

The PGA Tour goes to the Dominican Republic this week to take a swing at a resort course which is sure to produce some very good scores. It helps to be long here, but if past winners are any indication, it is not a requirement. Tune in TONIGHT at 8:00 to the Win Daily Livestream @windailysports with the regular cast of characters as we go over the entire DFS slate and provide some outright and H2H picks. Don’t forget to check out the rest of the content we have coming on Win Daily Sports! Here are our Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (10100) – He’s long and accurate and has been in good form (he’s coming off a 7^th at the Safeway). Burns has a great shot to win this tournament and if I was doing the pricing, he’d be at the very top. He will be chalk for sure, but I’ll have him in my GPP’s and cash.

Emiliano Grillo (9800) – He’s played five tournaments since the restart and he’s made all five cuts. He is great T2G and his success typically comes down to whether or not he can figure out the putter.

Denny McCarthy (9600) – Coming off a missed cut at the Safeway should keep his ownership down, but he was very solid before that. Also has a nice track record here and is normally great on APP and good OTT.

Luke List (8700) – List is long and is no stranger to going low. The problem is his recent form hasn’t been great. With that said, he sets up very nicely for this course and he’s another guy that just needs to find a hot putter for a couple rounds.

Kyle Stanley (8100) – Stanley hasn’t been making a ton off cuts lately (only made 2 of his last 5) but it’s interesting to note that his ball striking has been very good. He is getting killed in the PUTT department and I’m willing to take a shot on him turning that around. If Stanley’s putter is average he should be within the Top 20 on Sunday.

Patrick Rodgers (8000) – maybe a bit of a misprice here and I’m going to go ahead and take advantage of that. Five made cuts in a row for Rodgers. His APP stats on the year aren’t great, but I’m going to take recent form into account and fire away on Rodgers. Take note that this is a boom or bust play.

Will Gordon (7600) – Gordon was a DFS darling a couple months back and is now relatively forgotten, which means it’s the right time to jump aboard. He makes birdies and he’s long off the tee which is a great recipe on this track. Needs to get his APP game in order as it’s been off lately.

Chris Kirk (7400) – He’s gained OTT in each of his last four tournaments and has made four out of five cuts since the restart. Kirk is a big time comeback story and he seems to have turned a page. If he can get his APP game clicking he’s got a shot to be competing near the top on Sunday.

Doug Ghim (7300) – Not an exciting name, but he’s made two of his last three cuts (including 14^th at the Safeway) and he’s gained strokes in almost every metric during that stretch. Ghim has been particularly good on APP and with the short game.

JJ Spaun (7000) – Just to be clear, Spaun has been mostly bad over the last 12 months. But his last two tournaments he’s been dialed in with his OTT and APP game and I’m taking a shot here. This is a GPP play only and I certainly won’t have too many shares, but I’m taking a shot with Spaun.

Secret Weapon (sub 6k/sub 5%) – Get into our Expert Discord Chat for the latest installment.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 5 years ago

written by Sia

Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

We’ve got a much easier layout this week relative to the PGA Championship and we will be seeing a lot of birdies. The course isn’t particularly long and our focus will revert back to APP this week as this is definitely a second shot golf course (please review The Range for a closer look on course dynamics). Please tune into Tuesday night’s Livestream at 8:30 for more on these picks and the picks of Joel Schrek, who is quickly becoming one of the best PGA DFS players in the industry. And finally, make sure you are constantly refreshing your page at windailysports.com as we have plenty of articles coming from our entire team, but here are out Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks. All pricing is for DraftKings.

Brooks Koepka (11400) – It’s curious that Brooks is even making the trip to this event. However, knowing that Brooks definitely considers himself one of the best in the world and that he is 92^nd in FedEx Cup standings, he actually needs the points boost. We remember what we last witnessed with Brooks, which was an awful Sunday, but overall at the PGA he gained almost six strokes APP and that will be key at the Wyndham.

Webb Simpson (11200) – Webb has finished 2^nd, 2^nd and 3^rd the last three years at this event and he has a daughter named after the event itself. Convinced? He’s also in very good form with great APP and PUTT metrics, both of which will prove to be very valuable on this track. Yes he will be super chalk but he’s a lock button in cash games and you’ll want to have some shares in GPPs.

Justin Rose (9900) – I’m not normally a Rose guy, but he seemed to be back into form last week and he gained a ton of strokes on APP and PUTT at the PGA. Normally I’d consider fading a guy who gained 7 full strokes putting the week prior, but his most APP metrics (4 SG at PGA) combined with the possibility of a hot putter spell a potentially big week for Rose. Add to that he’s not comfortably within the Top 125 of the FedEx standings (currently at 103) and I think he has plenty to play for.

Si Woo Kim (8600) – Making seven cuts in a row isn’t anything to celebrate for a guy in this price range but he is coming off a 13^th place at the PGA and finished 1^st here in 2016 and 5^th last year. Further, his ball striking has been great lately. His putter can go hot and cold but it feels like he’s comfortable here so I have no hesitation including him in a handful of lineups. Si Woo is 121^st in the FedEx Cup standings so if you’re a believer in that narrative, things set up nicely this week.

Ryan Moore (8100) – He’s been very good on APP as of late and has a very good track record at the Wyndham. I think Moore is a bit underpriced here. One of his biggest issues this year has been an inconsistent putter, but I’m always willing to gamble on that if the other important SG metrics are in great shape.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (7700) – I almost left this guy off my Initial Picks because I didn’t feel like typing out his name, but for the sake of a proper write-up, I added him to the list. CBez (there we go) has been very good lately with a 22^nd at the Memorial and a 20^th at the WGC Fed-Ex St. Jude (a comparable course to Wyndham). Even better his main weakness is OTT and that shouldn’t be a big factor here.

Tom Lewis (7600) – Coming off a bad week at the PGA sets up nicely for a ownership leverage play at Wyndham. As mentionned above, his week’s track is comparable to the WGC Fed-Ex St. Jude where Lewis finished an astounding 2^nd place. Add to that Lewis is teetering at 120^th in the FedEx Cup Standings and I think he’s ripe for a bounce back.

Henrik Norlander (7300) – A forgotten commodity as he’s been absent the last few tournaments, but he’s made five cuts in a row including a 6^th at The Memorial and a 12^th at the Rocket Mortgage. Norlander’s ball striking has been great over that stretch, particularly in the area of APP. His putter can be erratic but over the last three tournaments he’s gained plenty of strokes with the short stick.

Luke List (7200) – Ball striking has been excellent lately and main issue with List is his putter (He lost a full 7 strokes putting last week). Still, at this price and with great APP numbers I’m willing to take a chance on a guy who appears to be on the rise. He’s made 3 cuts in a row and is currently 112th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Brice Garnett (6700) – ball striking has been great since the re-start. Like many of the guys above he is prone to some bad putting but his last three at the Wyndham have resulted in 6^th, 20^th and 20^th so he’s clearly comfortable here. Solid value in this punt range.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – get into Discord Wednesday for the secret weapon. Rate of return of secret weapon has been incredible. Feels like it’s due to crash and burn this week . . . or is it?

Again, stay tuned for the Livestream TONIGHT at 8:30 for much more on these picks and the picks of Joel Schrek. And if you’re not already subscribed to the Win Daily podcast, lock that into your rotation. See everyone tonight!

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Memorial Golf Ownership Preview & Picks

Steven Polardi 5 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

The Memorial Golf Ownership projections are a key factor when creating your lineups for tournaments. So lets take a look at the numbers.

Hello everyone, it’s time to pick your poison, and based on the The Memorial Golf ownership % the 9K group is almost all at 20% or higher. If you can stay away from the 9 K group, a hard option to let go of, it offers you a 20-25 % leverage over the field unless one of them wins. Let’s get down to the numbers. These numbers are as of this report, and again expect a push from the 9K field.

Patrick Cantlay leads the field at 22%+ (+ is rising ) followed by Abraham Ancer at 21%, and The Man, Tiger Woods, rounding out the top 3 at 20%.

Jon Rahm is next at 18%, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, and Victor Hovland are 16.5%, Webb Simpson is at 16%, Rory McILroy is 15.5% and Bryson DeChambeau is 15%+, along with Daniel Berger and Hideki Matsuyama. Justin Thomas is 14.5 % and Paul Casey, a late bloomer has blossomed up to 13.5 % Joaquin Niemann is 12.5%. Rickie Fowler along with pal Dustin Johnson are 11.5%. Last weeks winner and Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s favorite pick Collin Morikawa is only 11% along with Patrick Reed and Kevin Streelman.Brooks Koepka is at 10.5%

The players at 10% include Adam Hadwin and Sergio Garcia and Billy Horschel.Lucas Glover is 9.5%. Harris English is 9% along with Jason Day, and Tony Finau. Matt Kuchar and Matthew Fitzpatrick are 8.5%. Ian Poulter is 8%. Corey Conners, Sungjae IM and Mark Leishman are at 7%. Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, and Scottie Scheffler are at 6.5%, Justin Rose and Danny Willett are at 6%. Doc Redman is at 5.5% Kevin Na and B An are at 5%

The sub 5% group includes Brendan Todd and Max Homa who are on the border at 4.75 % Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, and H Varner lll are at 4%, along with Brendan Steele. Chez Reavie is 3.5%, along with Taylor Gooch. Troy Merritt is at 3% along with Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen, Jim Furyk, Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ. Coming in at 2.5% are Joel Dahmen, Bubba Watson, Emiliano Grillo, Phil Mickelson, Lanto Griffin, and Maverick McNealy.

The sub 2% group includes Bud Cauley, Zach Johnson, Bernd Weisberger, Tyler Duncan, Hao Tong Li, Carlos Ortiz, Sebastian Munoz, Eric V Rooyen, Nick Taylor, Jason Kokrak, Jason Dufner, Tom Hoge, Andrew Landry, Mackenzie Hughes, Steve Stricker, Branden Grace, Matt Wallace, Patrick Rodgers, Brian Stuard, Scott Piercy, Mark Hubbard, Dylan Frittelli, CT Pan and Vaughn Taylor along with the lower tiers not named.

My best value pick is Adam Hadwin, based on his metrics and ownership for this course. I also like Webb Simpson this week, and believe Gary Woodland will be in the mix.

My lower tier picks include Harris English, Troy Merritt and Lucas Glover.

My out in left field play is Ryan Moore, and last weeks pick,Nick Taylor.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money and I hope The Memorial Golf ownership projections helped you pick wisely.

Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Memorial: Initial DFS Picks

stephenbrown764@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

Hopefully you have already reviewed The Range and are ready to start attacking lineups. Below are my initial picks in this loaded Memorial field. As subscribers know, these picks are further developed during the week in Discord, the Livestream and with further articles from our golf team which will isolate even more golfers to consider in cash and GPP. Please monitor the ownership projections that we deliver in Discord and that are put out by Steven early Wednesday evening. Let’s get after it.

Collin Morikawa (10000) – There are so many arguments that can be made for golfers in this elite price range and if I had to pick an honorable mention, it would be Bryson (certain to have a few shares of Bryson as well) but Morikawa appears to be the safer and more automatic option of the group. I just can’t really believe how unflappable this guy is and what he showed me on Sunday was that his next golf shot is just another shot. He is on auto-pilot and that’s what I prefer to fly with this weekend.

Patrick Cantlay (9800) – Wasn’t great to start at Workday but started to really catch fire on the weekend. Given that he has only played two tournaments since the restart I think we can legitimately attribute the slow start last week to some rust, and now we may have a guy that is ready to fire for all four rounds. The T2G numbers are outstanding and he won here last year and was 4^th the year before (7^th last week at Workday after that slow start).

Jon Rahm (9300) – I’d like to think Rahm found something last Sunday as he finally woke up and fired 8 birdies and an eagle (with two bogeys). His paltry 27^th place finish will keep ownership down but we will have to monitor that as we head toward Thursday. Rahm hasn’t met his potential yet this year, but at 9300 we are definitely getting some value for a guy that is consistently thought of as a Top 5 golfer in the world.

Daniel Berger (8700) – There is a lot emerging talent in golf and Berger is clearly near the head of that class. He has been absent the last few weeks but he came out firing post-pandemic with a 1^st and 3^rd place finish. Add his 4^th place at the Honda Classic before the pandemic and he has finished Top 4 in his last three tournaments. His APP and OTT numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page and he does tend to lean on a hot putter but I love where he is at right now and I put him squarely in the unflappable category along with Morikawa.

Gary Woodland (8600) – Fair to say the relationship between the DFS community and Gary Woodland is squarely in the love/hate department as of late. With that said, he absolutely dominated the weekend on this track just a few days ago and it all appears to be explained by his change in drivers. Prior to last week Woodland was losing a laughable amount of strokes OTT and it appears that he has corrected that. This may be a case of recency bias on my part, but I can’t ignore the success with the club change so I’ll go ahead and put Woodland in the love column.

Abraham Ancer (8500) – If there were such thing as a golf-crush, I’ve got it in Double-A. His history at The Memorial ain’t great with only a 65^th and 57^th over the last two years, but his ball striking is prime. He’s finished Top 15 in his last three events. He’s coming off of a two week layoff and I’m perfectly ok with that as I’m guessing his focal point this month was to be ready for The Memorial. Gains in every strokes gained category, and particularly on approach. Be weary of some chalk here, but still a solid cash and GPP play (he’s an outright play for me as well at 45 to 1).

Sergio Garcia (7800) – We know the ball striking can be elite with Sergio and we know he has plenty of upside, which includes a 5^th place finish at the RBC. Most of Sergio’s issues reveal themselves with the putter and I’m always willing to take a risk on a guy who has good GIR but needs to get hot with the putter (much like Corey Conners who I will also have a few shares of).

Harris English (7300) – This feels like an easy call at this price which is why I’m weary of it, but I respect the SG metrics too much here to be off of Harris English. He gains OTT and on APP and can get hot with the putter. He’s only played two tournaments since the restart and that included a chalky missed cut and a nice 17^th place finish bounce back at the RBC. Another good value play here.

Keegan Bradley (7200) – Believe it or not, Keegan led the field last week in APP. Not exactly savvy with the putter and finished a disappointing 39^th last week. If he can even moderately replicate what he did on APP and have couple hot days with the putter, you’ve got yourself a gem in Keegan. His track record at Memorial is up and down but it includes three Top 25 finishes in the last 5 years and two Top 10 finishes in 2015 and 2016.

Lucas Glover (7100) – A great ball striker who can also drive the ball. Glover checks most of the boxes, including the fact that he’s finished within the Top 25 in his last 4 tournaments. In a field like this, the upside is going to be limited with Glover but he can be a cut maker and a birdie maker on the weekend.

Bernd Wiesberger (6600) – When you get down to this price range you need to look for outliers and perhaps some narrative building. Bernd is a solid player with some solid wins under his belt, albeit on the Euro Tour. With that said, winning matters in fields like this because I think his expectation will be that he can hang with the big boys. He’s solid OTT and on APP and will need to have a hot putter to make the cut and do some weekend damage. Solid punt play here.

Troy Merritt (6600) – On him last week and it paid off as he finished 22^nd. He also finished 8^th at the Rocket Mortgage and finished 17^th here last year. Feels like we have a golfer who has found his stroke and is worthy of a couple shares in this punt-play range.

Again, stay tuned for much more from the Win Daily Golf Teamand tune into the Livestream tonight as I will talk golf (and much more) withMichael Rasile. And please subscribe tothe Win Daily Podcast. See you inDiscord!

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 5 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

Hello DFS Golf fans, it’s time for the Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections. One thing that is trending right now is the ownership % of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker. For the last three weeks the winning millionaire team came in at 13% + ownership, with at least two of the golfers at 5% each or lower. At Colonial it was 15%. The reason is that these new young Turks have no fear, one golfer this week put it best. “Normally there are 50 to 80,000 people in the galleries and walking the grounds, you hear a huge roar, like the “Tiger roar” or a huge roar for one of Bryson’s 370 yard drives. When these younger guys would hear it on the course, they’d think I have to make a move and perhaps press their game a bit, now with only the camera personnel and a few people in homes off the green clapping, there is no pressure and these new guys are showing up with their A game.” Indeed they are, with the exception of Bryson last week, most of the normal top 10 golfers have been nowhere in sight on Sunday afternoon and a new wave of younger names have replaced them. DJ also won but he was ranked 16th at the time. Time will tell if it’s an anomaly or if it’s the new way of the PGA. It is telling that the last three winners have had 13% ownership as a total group, when the average winning team has been at 15%+.

Here are your Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

Mr Hovland takes the honors this week with 25% ownership as of this report. Right behind him is Patrick Cantlay at 23%, with Justin Thomas at 22%, and another Justin, Mr. Rose at 21%. Hedeki Matsuyama is at 20%. Joaquin Niemann, one of my favorites, is now at 17.5%, I may have to go underweight on him. Gary Woodland is at 15% and so is Xander Schauffele. Brooks Koepka is at 14%+ (plus means rising) along with Mark Leishman and Adam Hadwin. Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm are at 13.5% Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed and Ricky Fowler are at 12%. Corey Conners comes in at 11.5%. Kevin Streelman, Joel Dahmen, and Scottie Scheffler are at 11%.

Coming in at 10% ownership are B. An, Harold Varner and Sungjae IM. Cameron Champ is 9.5%. Jordan Spieth and Billy Horschel are at 8.5 %. Max Homa is at 8%. Emiliano Grillo, Maverick McNealy, Russel Henley and Jason Day are at 7%. Bubba Watson is at 6%.Ryan Armour is at 5.5%. Mark Hubbard, Ian Poulter, Rory Sabbatini, Shane Lowry, Matthew Wolf and Louis Oosthuizen are at 5%.

The following golfers are under 5%: Sebastian Munoz, Scott Stallings, Matthew NeSmith, Michael Thompson, Richy Werenski, Jhonattan Vegas, Jason Kokrak, Bud Cauley, Ryan Palmer, Keegan Bradley, Luke List, Nick Taylor, Jim Furyk, Lanto Griffin, Kyle Stanley, Tom Hoge, Troy Merritt, Carlos Ortiz, Mackenzie Hughes, Jason Dufner, Sam Burns, Dylan Frittelli, Aaron Wise, and Adam Long.

The following golfers are at or under 2%: Chesson Hadley, JB Holmes, Brandon Wu, Hudson Swafford, Charl Schwartzel, S.Y. Noh, K H Lee, Cameron Davis,Keith Mitchell, Graeme McDowell, Harry Higgs, Steve Stricker, Matt Jones, Pat Perez, Adam Schenk, Chris Kirk, PHIL MICKELSON, Charles Howell lll, Brendan Steele, Chez Reavie, Si Woo Kim, Sung Kang, Sam Ryder, Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Taylor Gooch, Vaughn Taylor, Cameron Tringale, Brian Stuard, Zach Johnson, and Andrew Landry.

Please look long and hard at the sub 5% and sub 2% owned players, there are two of them that with the right combo of higher priced players will make you a million dollars.

Please ask my self or our gifted team of writers any questions you may have in the Win Daily Sports discord channel after the reports go up. Don’t forget to check out the other great content over at WinDailySports.com, too!

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Workday Charity Open Ownership Preview

cdenny99@hotmail.com 5 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Workday Charity Open Ownership Preview

There are two tourneys in two weeks at Muirfield this year, normally driving distance and approach would be key factors, with the PGA determined to make it two distinct courses this weeks important metrics are SG TTG, scrambling and putting. Let’s look at some of the players who play well with those metrics for the first tournament. Here is your Workday Charity Open Ownership Preview for our DraftKings MillyMakers!

Patrick Reed (8800) Reed has been hit or miss since the start up, mostly miss, whatever ails him should be remedied at Muirfield with his game.

Matt Kuchar (8500) Just like Patrick Reed, Matt has a win and a runner up spot, and they both are cut makers at the event. Everything will hinge on their ownership %, they are considered safe values at the moment

Patrick Cantlay (10,600) Patrick won here last year, they are slowing the greens down for the first event, 11 on the stemp meter, that shouldn’t bother him, he went -19 last year on his way to victory.

Joaquin Niemann (8400) Joaquin has only played here twice, with a top 10 and top 30 result, his salary will come in handy for saving dollars.

Emiliano Grillo (7200) Emiliano has made four straight cuts here in his four tries, including a 9th and 11th, he will also provide you an ability to reach higher priced studs with his price on your roster

Sebastian Munoz (6800) Munoz is a bit more risky but has the metrics that will allow him to compete with the talent, and there is a lot of talent playing these next two weeks.

The PGA has notified the players that all tee boxes are in play this week, including the white tees, to mix up the distance. They will be slowing the greens as well to differentiate the following weeks Memorial, where the man himself, Jack Nicklaus, is the tournament host.

I will have projections early tomorrow evening and final picks for this week on Win Daily Sports. Please remember Sia has a live stream at 8:30 pm on the @WinDailySports twitter account, and the writers and I will be in the Discord channel to answer any questions you may have after the articles go up.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Rocket Mortgage Classic Final Ownership Projections

cdenny99@hotmail.com 5 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

The Rocket Mortgage Classic Final Ownership Projections

Last year a sub named Nate Lashley led from start to finish at the Detroit golf club and finished -25. The rough has been allowed to grow and thicken, I’m not sure how much that will deter scores, last year was a birdie bonanza, it should still be a high scoring affair this year. The weather is negligible for now for The Rocket Mortgage Classic so keep it in mind. Let’s get down to the ownership and picks.

The top man this week is Bryson DeChambeau by a large margin, he is at 29%. He deserves the love, but at 30% he would have to win to make value. Next is Victor Hovland at 23% and then a drop to Tyrrell Hatton at 19%. Patrick Reed follows at 18%, Doc Redman at 17%, Sneds is at 16%, Kevin Na at 16%. Kevin said Sunday night after finishing 5th last week that his back feels great, for now. I thought why would he add “for now ?” Patrick Scott caught a tweet from him last night that he hopes his back will allow him to make it thru this tourney, I was considering him for a core position, but I’m off now. Beware the injured golfer, he rates high, but it’s too risky for me. Webb Simpson is also 16% owned and is a great pivot off DeChambeau, the writers all agree he could do well.

Deki and Sungjae Im are 15% owned along with Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler, don’t be surprised to see Scottys % go up from the time of this report. Lucas Glover and EricVan Rooyen are at 14%, Adam Hadwin is 13%.

The following golfers are at 11% JT Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Christian Bezuidenhout, Brendan Todd, and Sebastian Munoz. Brian Stuard is at 10%, Lanto Griffin is at 9%, along with Brian Harmon, Kyle Stanley, Maverick McNealy, and Jason Day. Scott Stallings and last weeks underdog hero, Will Gordon are at 8%, along with my favorite pick Tyler Duncan, and Tom Hoge. Si Woo Kim is also 8%. In the 7% owned bracket you have Mark Hubbard, Matt Wolf, Sam Burns, and Patton Kizzire. At 6% you have Rafa Cabrera Bello, Kevin Kisner, Alex Noren, Kurt Kitayama who won a qualifier on Monday, Patrick Rodgers, Branden Grace, and Aaron Wise. At 5% and under some notables include Cameron Tringale, Chesson Hadley, Keegan Bradley, Emiliano Grillo, Luke List, Joseph Bramlett and Sepp Straka.

The following golfers may help your team place higher in the Draft Kings Million contest, please note this is for high entry GPP only, there is inherent and real risk involved to go after all the zeroes behind the 1.

Top Tier: Bryson DeChambeau (11,700) and Webb Simpson (11,000) Sungjae Im (9800)

Bryson is a beast and as long as he’s under 30 % a neutral play that can score points, he may go over 30 % owned, if he does, his perfect pivot is to Simpson, cheaper and the same upside as Bryson. Sungjae again projects well in this price range for value and upside. (He is my Na replacement)

Mid Tier: Kyle Stanley (7100), Scott Stallings (7500),and Rafa Cabrera Bello (8100)

With low ownership and really good numbers to make top 20, these three are projecting well in the model, and they allow you price wise to go for more top talent.

Low/ Mid Tier: Harold Varner lll (7600), Tyler Duncan (7000) Joseph Bramlett (7500)

These are the roster adds that can win a million, or blow up your team on Friday night, they are projecting at the top of the risk field.

Long Shot: Wes Roach (7300) Kevin Chappell (6600)
Their numbers indicate this course fits them, IF they putt well it could be a good week.

I spent some time this afternoon with Patrick and Sia trying to nail down some decent picks for you, our members, it’s extremely important to us, and I know Isaiah has already posted some great info as well. I play under the name SicilyKid, and you will see the above named players on my teams.

As always I hope to be with you, in the money!

Players and members please remember that the people who win millions every week have a common factor, they have two players whose ownership average is between 5 to 8% each, and their total team ownership comes in between 12-18%. Use ownership as a weapon, don’t be afraid to roster player X if you think he brings it.

The writers and I will be in the Discord Chat later to answer questions, do yourself a favor and check out all the golf reports, and as always, I hope to be with you, in the money. Check out more golf content for FREE over at WinDailySports.com/Golf.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Travelers Championship Final Ownership Projections

DFSGhost 5 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The Travelers Championship Final Ownership Projections

The ownership projections for the first two tournaments have been on lock. This week, as of this report, the top golfer is Bryson DeChambeau at 23%+ (+ is rising) Justin Thomas has shot up in the last hour at 22%, and Victor Hovland is at 21%+. There are still 57,000 entries available in the Milly Maker. This weeks numbers are more clustered together, last week Webb Simpson smoked the field in ownership. Here are The Travelers Championship Final Ownership Projections.

Ownership Projections

Jon Rahm, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann and Sungjae Im are next at 19% and Patrick Scott’s poster boy Collin Morikawa at 18% + along with Justin Rose and Bubba Watson. Scottie Scheffler is at 17%+ (I like Scotty ) along with Xander Schauffele and DJohnson.

Patrick Reed is 16%, with Rory McILroy, and Patrick Cantlay( first tourney in 4 months) coming in at 15%, followed by Gary Woodland +, and then Tony Finau at 14%.

M Fitzpatrick is 12%,M Leishman is at 11%, and so is Sergio Garcia. Ian Poulter and Corey Conners are coming in at just under 11%, along with Joel Dahmen, who has shot up quickly in the last hour, his % will go up.

Doc Redman, JT Poston and Jason Kokrak are just a shade under 8%, Billy Horschel, Max Homa and S. Munoz are at 6%, Jordan Spieth is at 5% along with Jason Day.

The following are at present sub 5% owned golfers:

Ryan Moore, Keegan Bradley, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Palmer,Kevin Kisner, Shane Lowry, Louie Oosthuizen, B. An, Shane Lowry, Bud Cauley, Vaughn Taylor, Chez Reavie, Rafa Cabrera Bello, H Varner III, K Streelman, Jim Furyk and others in the 6 K range.

Bryson and JT may top 25% by tourney lock out. If you roster them both, remember you will need four sub 8% owned players to get in the range to win the Milly, if you choose 1 you can play some mid to high priced player (s)as long as you have several low owned and diverse people in your lineup.

I was going to roster Shane Lowry in 9 lineups, now he’s in none. He played with Brooks Koepka, who’s caddy tested +, and Graeme McDowell, who’s caddy tested+. He may withdraw prior to tee off time, regardless he is too risky now to roster.

The following are players I believe may help:

Bubba Watson (8800) 18% owned. He is at the top of the ownership plateau, Data Golf docked him <2> for regression, what they did not do is allow him the customary .5 to .75 for history, when Bubba likes a course, he plays really well at it. He may or may not win his 4th championship in 10 years, even with the doc, he is still a + value, and on this course I won’t bet against him, although I have,and lost, many times. Secondary: Rory and Xander.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (8100) 12% owned, Marc Leishman (8000) 11% owned
These are two golfers hovering just over 10% with a decent short game and accuracy, they should provide decent value this weekend. Secondary Tony Finau (8200) and JT Poston (7900).

Doc Redman (6700) 7% owned. Max Homa (7000) 6% owned. I love Doc, he was eighth in strokes gained last week. I would like their ownership to be sub 5 but you can’t have everything, and you will get everything if these two make the cut and play golf as they have been, both rate as good values with + upside in my models.

Deep Longshots: Tyler Duncan, Cameron Tringale, Ryan Moore

These three can win you the Milly Maker on your team, or they can blow it up in a second on Friday (cut) night. Duncan is a cut maker, he needs to learn that there are two more days after the cut to play. My model loves Tringale, and Ryan Moore should fit this course enough to make the cut.

Honorable Mention: Harry Higgs.
Harry has made 7 straight cuts and he drinks Tito’s Homemade Vodka, made right here in Austin TX. That’s good enough for me.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown

The time is near, we have the PGA to thank.
Let’s comb thru this data of the Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown, and put the money in the bank! Let’s all go try and take down that Million Dollars from DraftKings!

Last year the Colonial played as the 7th hardest course relative to par. It ranked near the bottom in strength of field. Not anymore.

Ownership Breakdown Percentage | DraftKings

Rory McILroy and Web Simpson will battle it out for top ownership %, presently at 24% and rising.

They are followed by John Rahm, Sunjae IM, Patrick Reed and Colin Morikawa (sorry Patrick) at 18% ownership and on an uptick.

Justin Thomas and Xander Shauffele are holding steady at 15%.

English, Kuchar, DJ, Na, Fowler, and Spieth are between 10 and 14%.

DeChambeau, Hovland, An, Fitzpatrick (my compliments Jason), Moore and Lowry are all sub 10 percent, ranging from 8% down to 5%.

The reason I mention these golfers above is that they all have a high percentage to make the cut, and a 20% + chance to make top 20 in the tourney, with the exception of Jordan Spieth, who is still a respectable 15% to make top 20. The following players deserve a mention as well.

M Leishman – 11% owned, 27% to T20
K Kisner – 11% owned 19% to T20
C.Conners – 11% owned 18% to T20
J. Day – 7% owned 25% to T20

R Moore, S Lowry, C Reavie, V Taylor, R Knox,C. Bezuidenhout, B Cauley, T Hoge all are under 5% ownership with 15% odds to make T 20.

High Priced | DraftKings

At first I was high on Rahm, after he said he’s just “praying not to shank the first 7 balls I hit…and I just need to work the rust off.” I’m going to pass and look hard at Rory and Bryson, with JT following closely behind Bryson. Also I wasn’t planning on rostering Koepka, after he said “my game is really coming around, after the Players it’s now a million times better.” Okay, that’s a few lineups for me, thank you. Sunjae Im has been playing 5 hours every day, so he is ready. Kevin Na: “I spent all my time at home, loved it, didn’t play any golf, I may be a bit rusty.” Sergio just had a baby! Congrats, No roster for you!

If you are playing in a high player GPP I wouldn’t go with more than 1 of the high priced players, and to be contrarian, I don’t feel it’s necessary to roster any. Web Simpson is popping all over my models, at 25% ownership, I may put him in 1 lineup in multiples and pivot to a lower owned choice, grudgingly.

In the mid tier it’s Day, Kuchar and Sheffler popping, with Day being one of the best contrarian pivots due to ownership,value,and a decent short game.

Golfers of Note	Odds to make cut (%)	Odds to T20(%)
Xander S	74.2	37.6
P Reed	70.9	34.3
Sunjae IM	69.7	33.8
C Morikawa	69.6	32.9
DJ	69.1	32.0
S Scheffler	68.9	30.9
R Fowler	66.9	28.6
M Fitzpatrick	66.4	28.1
M Kuchar	65.9	27.9
B Koepka	63.9	25.8
J Day	62.7	24.2
T Finau	62.6	22.9
D Berger	59.8	19.7
R Sabbatini	57.5	18.4
K Kisner	56.3	17.5
D Lee	53.2	15.6
M Homa	50.7	14.2

Max was the last to be close, although he didn’t quite hit the 15%, he has the short game to get a pass.

Value Plays | DraftKings

Adam Hadwin, B An, Abraham Ancer, Billy Horschel and Harris English are the top value plays with Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Bryan Harmon and Conners secondary value plays.

Deep deep sleepers: Munoz, Cauley, Duncan, Redmon, Cabrera-Bello, Stricker, Todd, – roster if you’re feeling frosty!

If you don’t see your golfers name listed anywhere above, it’s because of ownership, value, DraftKings pricing or data, and it doesn’t mean you can’t roster him. I haven’t listed any golfers with a less than 50% chance to make the cut, and at least a 15% chance to make the top 20. I feel the best golfers to get you the money are there, and I’ll be glad to answer any queries in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat once the writers reports are in. Make sure to keep checking Win Daily Sports for all the up to date news on all your Golf bets and DFS plays.

As always, I hope to see you there, in the money.

5 years ago 0 comments

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Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

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Here are your Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

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The Rocket Mortgage Classic Final Ownership Projections

The Travelers Championship Final Ownership Projections

Ownership Projections

The following are at present sub 5% owned golfers:

The following are players I believe may help:

Deep Longshots: Tyler Duncan, Cameron Tringale, Ryan Moore

Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown

Ownership Breakdown Percentage | DraftKings

High Priced | DraftKings

Value Plays | DraftKings

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