PGA GPP

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Memorial Park

7,432 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

It will be the second time we have seen this tournament at Memorial Park in recent memory. It was hosted here last season but hadn’t been inside of the PGA Tour rotation since 1963. The venue is one of the few municipal golf courses used on tour, costing around $30 for adults and $10 if you are under 18. That typically would lead you to believe that we are in store for a straightforward layout, but that wasn’t the case last year with a winning score of 13-under from Carlos Ortiz.

You get five par-threes and this heavy yardage total of over 7,400 yards, but I wouldn’t call this a venue where distance is the leading proponent. Sure, I think that particular variable will help decide the winner, but accuracy will be just as necessary with the way the property is designed. Large specimen oak trees are positioned to cause issues if you are wayward off the tee, and there are weird quirks throughout, including a clamshell landing area on the par-four 10th that will create problems if you go inside of it. A ravine runs throughout a handful of holes, and despite not having many bunkers, the misses are extreme because of the run-off areas.

The main difference here is that there isn’t as much undulation as we sometimes get from Tom Doak properties, but the overall structure looks like what you would expect. The track does an excellent job of featuring doglegs that move in both directions. That fact mixed with the potential for gusts means we need creativity and thought before hitting every shot, and we see that with wide areas but small targets.

• Weighted Total Driving (20%) – I made my model 57.5% versus 42.5% of distance over accuracy. We have dog legs that go in both directions, which means while length will help, the specimen oak and small landing areas put accuracy into the mix.
• Courses Over 7,400 Yards (10%) – That should artificially add in some measurable totals like distance, long iron proximity and an ability to handle a longer property.
• Weighted Par-Three (7.5%) – I felt compelled to weigh the category because there are five, but I didn’t want to get overly caught up. These range all over the map in yardage, and I tried to accurately assess that narrative by having each stand solo within my weighted model. Three are over 200+ yards, so I did include a reasonable mix of long iron proximity. 
• Weighted Par-Four (15%) – There are birdie holes at 5,13 and 17, but I prefer trying to find how the players perform at par-fours stretching over 500 yards. Five of the seven most challenging holes come between 490 to 529, and I added in some bogey avoidance and long iron proximity to complete that category.
• Weighted Par-Five (17.5%) – We saw 61.5% of Carlos Ortiz’s winning total came there last year. Nearly 73% of Hideki Matsuyama’s second-place production. And 66.6% of Talor Gooch’s fourth-place output. The only outlier was Dustin Johnson, who wins the tournament if he does better than 18%.
• Around The Green + GIR (15%) – It is a one-year data total. Please take that with a grain of salt, but 28.3% of the scoring dispersion came around the green last year. That is 14.3% higher than the tour average.
• Weighted Proximity (15%) – That incorporates the full statistical breakdown of what we got last season. That is going to be a heavy mix of long iron play. Some of the weighted par total categories also include a deeper dive into specific ranges, so I think marginally de-emphasizing approach play makes sense when added in as a secondary metric elsewhere.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Tony Finau (10,600) – Tony Finau was the top-ranked player from a statistical perspective in my model. He graded inside the top-50 in all metrics, including rating top-10 in weighted proximity, around the green + GIR, weighted par-three, weighted par-four and courses over 7,400 yards. He looks to be the lowest owned of the group at roughly 11% and carries great GPP appeal.

Cameron Smith ($10,200) – Cameron Smith has seen one of the more significant increases from Monday to Tuesday in ownership and looks to be about 15% in my model, but he possesses many of the intangibles I am trying to find. Smith is 23-ranking spots better in proximity at this course versus an average PGA Tour stop and comes into the week ranked second in par-five birdie or better, sixth in weighted par-three and sixth in strokes gained total over my long-term model.

Other Notable Players I Like – Sam Burns $11,100. You could argue he is a better cash-game play because of his popularity, but I think the price tag is reasonable for the built-in safety he brings to the table.

$9,000 Range

Brooks Koepka ($9,900) – I have been a pretty big proponent of no Brooks Koepka in non-majors over the past few months, but I am willing to come off that stance this week. Please note that Koepka would be GPP-only if you play him, but he is the most considerable model increase I have when looking at win equity versus overall rank. I’m not fond of the narrative that the American is only playable because he helped to design this track, but there is something to that when he is showing as one of the top values before we even take that into account.

Joaquin Niemann ($9,500) – Joaquin Niemann jumps off the page to me because of the leverage he creates in builds versus using Aaron Wise or Talor Gooch. I know DFS users continue to be frustrated by him because of his putter, but he has gained with his irons in 19 of his last 23 trackable starts and off the tee in 33 of 37. Perhaps that is something he can use to his advantage at a venue where missing the greens can be deadly. 

Cash Plays: Adam Scott ($9,600), Talor Gooch ($9,300), Aaron Wise ($9,200). I feel like the prices are fair on the group, but I prefer taking the safety they provide and playing them in cash.

$8,000 Range

Maverick McNealy ($8,500) – Maverick McNealy ranks 12th in both strokes gained off the tee and around the green over his last 24 rounds. We have seen him make 12 of 13 cuts in a row, including 10 of those resulting in a top-30.

Seamus Power ($8,400) – We see Seamus Power follow that same mold of Maverick McNealy. Fourteen made cuts over his past 15 starts. Eleven of those have resulted in a top-31. Form like that is very important during the offseason, and there aren’t many producing as often as those two.

GPP Pivot: Max Homa $8,000

$7,000 Range

Erik Van Rooyen $7,800 – Erik Van Rooyen carries some of the best cost versus upside potential we have talked about so far. Eleventh in my model from both an overall and upside perspective, it shouldn’t hurt matters that the South African finished 20th at the course last year. Van Rooyen ranks seventh in my weighted proximity category and is also 11th in total driving when trying to mimic the track in my spreadsheet.

Chad Ramey $7,500 – Chad Ramey seems to be one of the better Korn Ferry prospects we have entering the PGA Tour this year. His off the tee game has left something to be desired at times, but I have him 13th with his driver for this specific layout versus ranking 86th at a neutral track. Ramey’s ability to hit it long and straight should be a major benefit.

Charley Hoffman $7,300 – The recent form has been questionable, but we get all the narratives that typically spell out a Hoffman week, including Texas and wind. 

Ryan Palmer $7,100 – We saw some life from Ryan Palmer at Mayakoba last week. His preferred surface is Bermuda, and his best results tend to come in windy conditions. 

Talor Moore $7,100 – If you can’t tell, I am a big believer in a handful of these new PGA Tour kids. The one issue with Taylor Moore is that I don’t have a ton of data to work with for him up to this point, but he is the second-largest edge on the board right now in rank versus ownership.

GPP Pivot: Brian Harman ($7,100) – I love the ownership and leverage he can provide to builds

$6,000 Range

Sahith Theegala – Sahith Theegala is one of my favorite values on the board. His first place marks in bogey avoidance and scrambling should give him real upside to compete on the first page of the leaderboard if he brings his best stuff with him to Texas. 

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Luke List ($6,900) – I could do without the ownership. Tom Hoge, Lee Hodges, Peter Uihlein, Trey Mullinax, Wyndham Clark, Francesco Molinari

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

El Camaleon Golf Course

7,100 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Paspalum

The best way to describe El Camaleon Golf Course would be as an exposed oceanside track that features jungle terrain and swampland. That is a unique mixture since you get three different textures with that description, but golfers will need to traverse various hazards, including those of the architectural variety.

There are very few locations on the PGA Tour where distance doesn’t hold an advantage over precision, but nearly 65 percent of all top-10 finishers during the previous eights years have been shorter than average off the tee. It’s not to say that distance is a negative, but accuracy players will undoubtedly see a boost. One of the reasons for that has to do with golfers clubbing down to avoid the plethora of hazards that come into play. The rough is virtually non-existent, but the misses do compound.

While scoring might be easy for the winners, this track isn’t a given! The point gets enhanced when we dive a little deeper into the actual metrics, as El Camaleon ranks near the top-10 on tour every season in birdie or better percentage and double bogey or worse rate. Mistakes will be made when balls get sprayed, and golfers can start to feel as if they are trapped in a tiny bubble once things begin to go wrong. The greens typically register between a 10-11 on the Stimpmeter, which is extremely slow, and we receive that set up so the surface doesn’t get away from the grounds crew if winds do play a factor. Overall, golfers that can find fairways off the tee and pinpoint their irons from a shorter proximity range should be at an advantage, and the ability to play on a slow surface should only help matters.

• Weighted Ball-Striking (25%) – That is something I geared heavily towards accuracy when making my total driving stat, and I then took a smaller percentage on GIR and added that to my total driving to come up with a ball-striking number.
• Weighted Proximity (15%) – That encompassed all proximity values, but 60% of the weight came from 0-150 yards.
• Weighted Scoring (10%) – As I previously noted, El Camaleon ranks inside the top-10 in both birdie or better percentage and double bogey or worse rate. I wanted to find golfers that would not only score but also protect against a big number.
• Weighted Par-Four (15%) – A lot of these holes are going to be your most difficult, and I did come back around on adding a percentage of bogey avoidance here to account for whatever I lost when doing a heavier breakdown of birdies over bogeys in the weighted scoring 
• Weighted Par-Five (12.5%) -These are reachable in two and have been the number one decider between the three par totals in figuring out top-10 finishers over the last few years. 
• Weighted Slow-To-Average Greens (12.5%) – That is a mixture of strokes gained total and putting on a slower surface. Some notable top-10 finishers there were Hadwin, Hatton, Matt Jones, Justin Thomas, Kuchar, Seamus and Ancer.
• Strokes Gained Total At Courses Under 7,200 Yards (10%) – I considered adding in scoring at easy courses to along with it, but the mistakes compound at the track, making how someone plays at a shorter track more relevant.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas (11,200) – Justin Thomas was the number one golfer in my model from an overall rank sense. Thomas did drop to fifth when looking for just upside, which is a little discouraging for the best player in the field, but most of that comes down to him being inaccurate off the tee. Thomas should be able to club down, and I think Andy Lack was spot on when he tweeted eight of Thomas’ 14 PGA Tour wins have come between October and January. The American is the number one golfer in this field when given a slower surface, and as would be expected, the 28-year-old ranks first in my weighted proximity category. A lot is pointing in his direction when we remove one trait he might be able to get around because of the length he can carry his irons, and it is hard to ignore his potential to lap the field if he is dialed-in.

Viktor Hovland ($10,900) – I have been saying for the last few months that Viktor Hovland is a hot putter away from winning again. Hovland ranks third in my upside model and has averaged 3.3 strokes with his irons over his last 10 trackable starts. The driver has been just as good, totaling positive strokes in 21 of his past 23, and he finally showed some life with his flat stick at the CJ Cup. The 24-year-old tends to run hot-and-cold with that aspect of his game, but he has followed up a positive showing on the greens with another the last four times he has started a new streak.

Abraham Ancer ($10,700) – If you listen to any of my shows regularly, you will know that I am never an Abraham Ancer guy. I find him to be overpriced because of his popularity throughout the industry, but I don’t believe that is the case here this week. Ancer has shown when he likes a particular track that he often keeps the run going, and we see that here with him having produced four top-21 results in a row. Tournaments like this where the top-three golfers in price are also the top-three on my board make it tough to avoid taking a chalky approach, but I believe you can always pivot elsewhere. I don’t mind a stars-and-scrubs strategy in this spot, and you can find yourself in a unique build by taking many different routes.

GPP Pivot – Tony Finau $10,600 – Finau has been erratic at this course with two top-16s and two missed cuts over his last four attempts, but I’ve noticed he performs better on these shorter tests sometimes than the bomb-and-gouge properties. That is not exactly what you would expect, but the data spells it out that way too, ranking fifth in this field at courses under 7,200 yards.

$9,000 Range

Scottie Scheffler ($9,900) – Scottie Scheffler could just as easily have been in the $10,000s if he didn’t provide two questionable showings in Vegas. I’d be more concerned if one factor of his game kept trending in the wrong direction, but this feels to be more of a situation where he just wasn’t clicking on all cylinders. I assume he will put the pieces together soon, and I find it relevant that he is a favorite in head-to-head matchups against Brooks Koepka, Billy Horschel and Tyrrell Hatton.

Favorite Pivots: Patrick Reed ($9,500), Shane Lowry $9,300 -Both are negative for me in price versus rank, but I don’t mind taking shots since it won’t take much for me to get overweight at five percent.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Tringale ($8,900) – If you are trying to figure out a spot to get contrarian, Cameron Tringale looks to be the natural GPP pivot off of Aaron Wise. Tringale’s course form doesn’t give you an idea that his upside might be as high, but the 34-year-old is a different golfer this season than he has been in his career. Tringale ranks fourth in my overall model and inside the top-40 of all weighted statistics.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800) – Matthew Fitzpatrick is the third-ranked golfer in this field in moderate-to-severe wind and is just a week removed from being the top-priced player on the board at the Bermuda Championship. Fitzpatrick isn’t necessarily a value for me on the surface, but any course that mimics Harbour Town will be one where I give him a second look.

Russell Henley ($8,200) – Russell Henley has been surprisingly bad at the course with two missed cuts and 29th, but as I have said numerous times throughout the week, I am not overly concerned with course history at this particular stop. Despite his popularity, I would use Henley as a GPP-only play because of some of the negative past trends, but he is top-10 in this field when it comes to weighted proximity, ball-striking, bogey avoidance and par-four scoring.

Mito Periera ($8,100) – Consider this a good price for a golfer who has demonstrated a high floor early in his career, and the fact we are getting him at a price tag outside of the top-20 golfers only enhances his ceiling since we don’t need as much upside for him to zoom past his built-in salary cap.

Other Thoughts: Sergio Garcia $8,700 and Maverick McNealy $8,500 are both in in play

$7,000 Range

Seamus Power $7,700 –   I know I keep stressing this point, but Seamus Power is an elite statistical golfer and has been for the past year.

Emiliano Grillo $7,500 – It is hard to say much bad about Emiliano Grillo at this track. I don’t love the popularity, but his four top-15 finishes in five tries can’t be ignored.

Ian Poulter $7,500 – Ian Poulter looks to be one of the better contrarian pivots. The Englishman is currently a small favorite over Seamus Power in a head-to-head bet, which is relevant since he is four times less popular. I like playing both but don’t forget to work the Poulter into your builds.

Brian Harman $7,300 – Similar mentality to the concept I just said with Ian Poulter. Brian Harman is -110 versus Emiliano Grillo at ownership projections of two percent versus 14 percent. Once again, find a way to work in both, but there is an opportunity to create leverage to your lineups.

Kevin Streelman $7,200 – I have a proper price on Kevin Streelman being in the mid $8,000s. The American is a positive value for me across the board in all game types, although the real value is coming from his upside in GPPs. Streelman ranked 10th for me from a statistical perspective and is 14th in that weighted proximity range I ran to mimic the event. 

Additional Thoughts: Justin Rose $7,900 (GPP), Joaquin Niemann $7,800, Talor Pendrith $7,200, Joel Dahmen $7.000, Brendan Steele $7,000 and Henrik Norlander $7,000 are all in play for me.

$6,000 Range

Chris Kirk ($6,700) – It didn’t quite work for me at the ZOZO when I went overweight on Chris Kirk, but this is another potential opportunity to grab him under the radar. Kirk is the largest model differential for DraftKings that I have, and he has been good at this property with four top-50s in his last four trips, including a seventh-place result in 2016.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Tom Hoge $6,900, Ryan Palmer $6,900, Charles Howell III $6,900, Scott Piercy $6,900, Guido Migliozzi $6,900, Stephan Jaeger $6,800, Ryan Moore $6,700, Graeme McDowell $6,600, Chez Reavie $6,600, James Hahn $6,400, Brian Stuard $6,300, Eugenio-Lopez Chacarra $6,000 – I love the $6,000 range this week.

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Port Royal Golf Course

6,828 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Bermuda

Welcome to what will be one of the weakest fields of the year! One-hundred and thirty-two players are set to tee it up at the Bermuda Championship, and even if you added in a superstar like Jason Day to the mix, the field would still be considered flawed.

Port Royal Golf Course is positioned right on the Atlantic Ocean coastline. We can get into what that means from a strategy standpoint shortly, but this is the second shortest venue on the PGA Tour – behind only Pebble Beach. It should go without saying that the track plays as straightforward as the yardage might indicate, but it gets even more emphasized when you look at the construction of the property. Most of the yardage we see on the surface is baked into three of the four par-threes, with those three holes ranking as your most difficult. Each will feature between a 26.1 and 32.5% bogey or worse rate, and the yardage stretches between 213 to 235 yards. When we look at the top-10 finishers over the past two seasons, strokes gained on par threes have been the most impactful. That does flip when looking at just cut-makers, but to me, that shows earning shots on the par-fours and fives will be most crucial in making the cut, while being able to separate from the pack on par threes will give golfers the push they need to compete for the title.

The last part of the equation is the weather that I talked about to open this discussion, but I am not going to get overly concerned with pinpointing a specific tee time. Sure, it might end up coming into play marginally, but we aren’t talking about a more volatile location where winds will come and go. I’ll instead weigh wind in a model as a whole and go in with the mindset that you will always have to deal with steady breezes on a coastal course.

• Strokes Gained Total In Moderate to Severe Wind (12.5%) – Maybe there is an AM/PM split advantage, but I generally hate diving that deep into things. We are looking at 20+ MPH during all starting times, so it is not as if a group will have nothing to worry about. If anything, it could present a flip in my exposure the other way if the masses start flooding towards a given perceived advantage.
• Strokes Gained Total On Courses Under 7,200 Yards (12.5%) – I wanted to get a strong correlation of strokes gained data with information pertinent to this week’s venue, and I love how easily quantifable this metric is when building a model
• Weighted Slow Bermuda (10%) – That incorporates a mixture of stats on how golfers have performed during their career when given greens that mimic these. That doesn’t include just putting to derive a value, although the flat stick was heavily included for 40% of the aggregate. 
• Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I looked at par-three average, bogey avoidance and various iron proximity numbers – mostly those of over 200 yards.
• Weighted Par-Four (17.5%) – That is a combination of holes from 350-400, 400-450 and overall par-four totals.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%) – I do think you could raise that metric slightly, but these are rather simple and short. It wouldn’t shock me if someone caught fire on them that normally doesn’t play par-fives well. 
• Total Driving + GIR (15%) – The total driving was put together from a heavy split in favor of accuracy over distance and then I took that number and did a very even distribution between GIR and total driving. 
• Proximity From 0-150 Yards (12.5%) – Most of the varying distances outside of that group are on the par-threes and fives, which already has been looked into marginally in other areas. 

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Matthew Fitzpatrick (11,000) – I’m way lower on the $9,000 range this week than most, which means I will find myself in various builds where I have exposure to a ton of the $10,000+ options. There is nothing wrong with getting unique if you are playing a large-field MME, but I believe the five players in this zone for the Bermuda Championship are a step above the rest. Matthew Fitzpatrick ranks seventh overall in my model and has a slew of impressive statistics worth mentioning, including grading fourth in this field on slow Bermuda greens and inside the top-five when it comes to short courses and windy conditions over his past 50 rounds.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($10,700) – Christiaan Bezuidenhout is priced where he should be, according to my model. I know that sounds weird to say, but he ranks inside the top-16 in five of the eight categories I ran, which includes not finishing outside of 59th anywhere. He has been a little worse on slow Bermuda if we are looking at just his putting splits, but it is a marginal drop-off for someone that plays his best golf in windy conditions.

Patrick Reed ($10,400) – Patrick Reed is looking like the contrarian pivot of the group. My early projections have him just above 10%. The current form has not been good since returning from his battle with pneumonia that placed him in the hospital, which is why he is GPP-only, but I wouldn’t put it past him getting himself into contention. The field is weak. He is the only American inside of the top-100 playing this tournament. And I am willing to take a shot on his upside if it means I am getting him as the odd man out.

Seamus Power ($10,200) – There is a lot to like about Seamus Power. I’ve been saying it even before he went on this run a few months ago that I believe he is a borderline elite golfer from a statistical perspective, and this is the perfect course for him to continue his hot run. 

How I rank the group – It is extremely close, so I don’t want to make it sound as if someone is exponentially better than the other, but when considering ownership and price tag for GPPs, I would rank them : 1. Patrick Reed, 2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 3. Seamus Power, 4. Matthew Fitzpatrick and 5. Mito Periera.

$9,000 Range

Chad Ramey ($9,500) – Chad Ramey checks a ton of boxes. He ranks second in his young career when it comes to strokes gained approach and is an excellent driver of the ball that can score with the best of them on par-fives. If you want to get super contrarian, I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibilities to start a build with him or someone in the $8,000s, but that is more of an MME-type roster over what you would do in a single-entry or three-max. Ramey belongs in this range and works as the first or second man into your lineup.

Favorite Pivot: Matthias Schwab ($9,700) – If you want to use the argument that Matthias Schwab is overpriced, I am in agreement, but I don’t think he is any more so than whatever name you want to mention in this group. The only difference is that he is going to come at a fraction of the popularity. The mindset behind him is purely large-field GPPs, but I don’t mind throwing him into lineups with a ton of entries because of the leverage he creates if he stays sub-five percent

$8,000 Range

Sahith Theegala ($8,800) – Sahith Theegala looks like a nice bargain across the board after burning the industry at the Shriners. I love his ability to scramble and avoid making bogey. We see those two strengths in my model with his first-place grade in bogey avoidance and 2nd-place number in scrambling. That is a good combination to possess if the wind turns violent, and he continues to be a name to monitor because of what I said on my ‘Be The Number’ podcast about finally being over a wrist injury that derailed his career for a bit.

Guido Migliozzi ($8,700) – I have been happy to see Guido Migliozzi’s ownership projection steadily going in decline since yesterday. On Monday, there was a period when he was the second-most popular choice on the board, but that seems to be behind us now with an ownership rank that places him as a fringe top-10 choice. Migliozzi ranks third in my weighted par-four category, ninth in windy conditions and eighth at courses under 7,200 yards.

Stephan Jaeger ($8,400) – GPP-only, but Stephan Jaeger was the top point scorer on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. Yes, you read that correctly. Not everyone’s darling Mito Periera! Some of my math is lower on him because of the three tournaments I have in my system this year, but this is the perfect venue for him to provide a big result because of his bogey avoidance and short iron proximity numbers.

Ryan Armour ($8,100) – Back-to-back eighth-place showings at Port Royal Golf Course during the two years the event has been held at the venue, and while I do worry slightly about the form he is bringing into the week, the stats are where I would want them to be if I was going to ignore the fact that he has posted no top-50s in his last four starts. Armour earned his 13th-place rank in my model from how he stacked up statistically.

Other Thoughts: David Lipsky ($8,000) and Scott Stallings ($8,600) both carry GPP appeal.

$7,000 Range

Stacked With Talent –  I did this breakdown on the ‘Live Show’ with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck, but I want to pinpoint the golfers again that fit three sets of criteria. In 10 of the past 13 tournaments, my model was higher than DraftKings on the golfer that won the event. In all 13 of those, it was higher in some iteration when it came to rank versus ownership. And in 12 of the 13, the player was ranked somewhere between first to 18th. I will stretch this out towards the top-30 for the sake of this post, but these are the names that fit all three marks as of Tuesday night: Nick Hardy ($7,900), Alex Smalley ($7,600), Nick Taylor ($7,400), Matthew NeSmith ($7,300, I have some hesitation), Lee Hodges ($7,300), Aaron Rai ($7,300), Harry Hall ($7,200), Brian Stuard ($7,100), Bo Hoag ($7,000), Kramer Hickok ($7,000).

Additional Thoughts: Here is a list of other $7,000 golfers that missed the mark versus ownership but still graded as a value versus DraftKIngs: Mark Hubbard ($7,900), Russell Knox ($7,700), Hank Lebioda ($7,500), Austin Eckroat ($7,500), Jason Dufner ($7,200), David Hearn ($7,100), Anirban Lahiri ($7,100), Beau Hossler ($7,000), Vincent Whaley ($7,000). As you can tell, the group is stacked with potential plays.

$6,000 Range

Cameron Percy ($6,900) – Cameron Percy is priced too cheaply. I don’t love his upside, but I think we can get a top-30 or 40 out of him. Maybe that makes him a better cash play than anything else, but there are playable options if you do find yourself down in the $6,000s, starting with Percy who could be a $7,000+ choice just as easily.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Kurt Kitayama ($6,800), Chase Seiffert ($6,600), Austin Smotherman ($6,600), Sean O’Hair ($6,600), Dylan Wu ($6,500), Jon Pak ($6,500) and David Lingmerth ($6,200)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour’s drive east of Tokyo, Japan. It was initially built in 1976 and features what I would call a ‘claustrophobic design.’ The fairways are of average width, but the venue as a whole emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature where golfers will be required to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout the 18 holes. That means accuracy takes the podium over distance this week, and we should get a general idea of that with the venue measuring under 7,100 yards. I want to note that length isn’t irrelevant if you’re going to intensify your research and think a little outside of the box, but I geared mine towards accuracy when making a build.

We have a unique number of par threes, with all five measuring below 200 yards. The easiest of the five is the 13th, which yields nearly a 20% birdie or better percentage and plays at 141 yards. The three par-fives are lengthy, and all exceed 560 yards. The 14th is 608 yards and only has a 25.2% birdie or better rate – a number that is greatly reduced for what we typically see on tour. And then we have the 10 par-fours that are all over the map in design.

The only other notable point that you will hear a lot of throughout the industry this week is that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter, but golfers will need to be aware of it to avoid making any unnecessary mistakes.

• Weighted Par-Four (20%) – That is built towards Narashino Country Club being the venue in mind. It is going to include a combination of those key distances that I mentioned between 350-400 and 450-500 yards, as well as a varying amount of birdie or better mixed with bogey avoidance. 
• Weighted Par-Three (10%) -We have one more than usual, and four of the five are gettable. That stat is derived from par-three average and then some of the key proximity ranges where the holes are set up. 
• Weighted Par-Five (10%) – Overall par-five birdie or better, some long iron play and how a golfer has performed on longer par-fives throughout their career.
• Weighted Bentgrass (10%) – That is 70% strokes gained total at bentgrass properties and 30% strokes gained putting on bentgrass. I liked that combination because it added in some putting but still kept the premier course fits up top.
• Weighted Proximity (15%) – For the most part, that was removing a lot of the 200+ proximity ranges and recalculating the model to try and mimic some semblance of the venue this week. The percentages won’t be perfect because we don’t have data at hand, but I still think it works better removing the less critical elements from the equation. 
• Strokes Gained Total on Short Par 70s (10%) – Narashino is a specific layout that falls under an easily quantifiable metric. It doesn’t mean all players that have struggled at a shorter test will do so again, but it is nice to have an idea of who is more likely to pop from off the pace. 
• Weighted Driving (15%) – I used a combination of driving accuracy and fairways gained. 
• Sand Save (10%) – There are a lot of bunkers that surround the greens. Being able to get up and down should help salvage score.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Collin Morikawa ($11,200), Xander Schauffele ($11,000) – Unfortunately, pricing is really good, and maybe that has more to do with the fact that the field is watered down at the very bottom, but If I am being honest, I don’t love this tournament from a DraftKings perspective. You get these weird built-in scenarios when you have two golfers that are sub-eight/1 to win the event, and you have to at least consider fading one or both of them in any large-sized GPP if they reach 30%+. However, the problem with that is not only is the ownership warranted, but I also have a hard time seeing how they don’t at least stay competitive. I think the best course of action is to figure out which one you like the most, but you can get very contrarian, very quickly if you skip the big four and build in other directions. Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300) and Will Zalatoris ($10,500) are fine on the surface, but there isn’t a big enough drop-off in ownership or price for me to want to pivot in a separate direction from Morikawa or Schauffele. I’d want at least one of those things to be true, and I don’t think either will be the case in Japan. 

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000) – I realize this will be a contrarian take, but I was able to alter various portions of my model to show the Englishman as a value. Fleetwood is 37th for me out of 78 players when it comes to strokes gained approach, but when I condensed the proximity numbers to equal more of what he should get this weekend at Narashino, he grades eighth in this field. We know from experience that Fleetwood does his best work overseas, and as someone that constantly finds him overvalued, I don’t believe he is here. Playing Fleetwood in any capacity, whether as the second man in behind Morikawa/Xander or as your first option, is a surefire way to get unique.

Favorite Cash Play– Xander Schauffele ($11,000)

$9,000 Range

Joaquin Niemann ($9,900) – The first bet I placed before Paul Casey withdrew from the field was Joaquin Niemann at 28/1. We have seen him go ice cold with the putter recently, but the rest of his game has remained sharp. He has gained with his irons in 14 of 16. Off the tee in 11 of 13, and while we aren’t talking about massive numbers during most of those appearances, my math continues to believe another win is around the corner. The rest of the group is more of a mix-and-match for me. I like this section as a whole, but the majority are fairly priced options that become intriguing because of their reduced ownership number compared to my model. Alex Noren ($9,700) carries some of that Tommy Fleetwood type appeal. I like Erik Van Rooyen at $9,500. Keegan Bradley ($9,400) is more of a GPP target because some of his putting woes might get reduced on these manicured greens. Maverick McNealy ($9,300) and Cameron Tringale ($9,200) are both worth a look in various builds. My model prefers each for cash, but I can be convinced to grab a few shares at the right percentage. And Emiliano Grillo ($9,100) carries a lot of that same potential that we discussed with Keegan Bradley, although I do believe the American has more upside.

Additional Thoughts: Don’t be afraid to play some of these choices for above ownership consensus

$8,000 Range

Jhonattan Vegas ($8,900), K.H. Lee ($8,700) – Both Jhonattan Vegas and K.H. Lee are very much in play. I prefer them in cash because each ranks inside the top-eight of that model, but I am not going to talk anyone out of using them in GPP lineups.

Ryan Palmer ($8,300) – Ryan Palmer’s form looks shaky with multiple missed cuts in his last handful of showings, but I am willing to ignore most of that because of how he fits for the course. He ranks 10th in this field over his past 50 rounds on short par 70 layouts and is inside the top-20 for weighted proximity, putting from 5-10 feet and overall birdie or better percentage. 

Chris Kirk ($8,100) – I believe the stats are better than the form would indicate for Chris Kirk, and it is the same thought process I just mentioned with Ryan Palmer of how the shorter layout might provide more upside. Kirk has gained with his irons in eight of nine starts. Off the tee in four of seven, but this is the kind of venue you would anticipate seeing him find success because of his accuracy off the tee. He ranks 10th in my recalculated proximity category and is inside the top-15 for GIR, three-putt percentage, sand save percentage, overall bogey avoidance, scrambling, par-four average and scoring at a short par 70. Kirk is the most significant disparity in my model regarding my rank versus his price tag of anyone $8,000 or above.

Other Thoughts: I have given a deeper dive to Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) and Charley Hoffman ($8,500). I don’t mind fitting either into builds

$7,000 Range

Brendon Todd ($7,400) –  I love how Brendon Todd has played in his career on similar par-fours as the ones he has in front of him in Japan. He is the number one driver and number one putter in my model, which is a great combination for someone that at least can get hot with the irons out of nowhere. He has pretty much been rotating between earning and losing with his approach game over the last few months, but when he has gained, 2.6 at the Fortinet, 4.6 at the Wyndham – those are also courses that benefit finding fairways.

Pat Perez ($7,300) – I am curious to see where Pat Perez’s ownership goes, but it is worth noting that he withdrew from the Shriners on the final hole of the day on Friday after already being guaranteed to miss the cut. That isn’t an injury problem…that sounds like a man that wants to gamble on the Vegas strip.

Additional Thoughts: I like Garrick Higgo ($7,800) if you are looking for a contrarian dart throw in GPPs. Other top values for me are Harry Higgs ($7,500), Henrik Norlander ($7,400) – preferably cash, Matt Jones ($7,200) has playability across the board, Brendan Steele ($7,100) and my model likes Doug Ghim and Tom Hoge at $7,000.

$6,000 Range

Andrew Putnam ($6,700) – Andrew Putnam is ranked 28th for me overall. 23rd for safety and enters the week with two top-30s over his last three starts. There are certain players this week that received a boost because of their short games, and Putnam did fall into that category by ranking inside of the top-15 in sand save percentage, scrambling, bogey avoidance and bentgrass putting 

James Hahn ($6,300) – There is no guarantee that James Hahn performs in Japan, but he has shown he has winning upside when he does put himself into contention. I always prefer him at a course that rewards driving accuracy, and he should get that here in Narashino

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Roger Sloan ($6,800), Doc Redman ($6,800), Chan Kim ($6,500), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400), Adam Long ($6,300), Kazuki Higa ($6,500), Scott Vincent ($6,400), Rikuya Hoshino ($6,200), Kyle Stanley ($6,200), Wesley Bryan ($6,000) and Shaun Norris ($6,000)

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Summit Club

7,459 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bentgrass

We are back in Las Vegas for the second consecutive week, as the PGA Tour will highlight a course never seen before called the ‘Summit Club.’ And while the venue is just two neighborhoods down the road from where I live, it must be noted that this week’s Tom Fazio design is about as exclusive as you can find in this city. Membership to the facility costs $200,000 per year and finding any data has been extremely hard to come by for those attempting to gather information. Luckily, all is not lost since we should be able to make a few guesses on what to expect, so let’s dive into those answers.

One of the things I try to do is figure out what can be proven. That is information like yardage. What is par? What kind of greens are they playing? Those questions start to point us in a general direction that gives us a blueprint of what to look deeper into for the week. That’s the easy way to get an initial idea, but I do think we can take it a step further if we want to jump into the mix. Many course architects will similarly build their properties, and Tom Fazio is one of those designers. When I look at Fazio venues, there are a few courses that I think are decent comps. Shadow Creek is one, which is the Vegas course used last year, and the second would be Caves Valley – won by Patrick Cantlay a few months ago during the BMW Championship. In reality, you can essentially use any Fazio track for reference, but I went through my models to try and find any corollary stats that stood out across the board, and I noticed most were usually nearly identical each time.

Deep-bunkering will surround undulating fairways and greens. Three-putt avoidance typically means something since complexes are large. When you add to the equation that this surface should be fast because of the Vegas heat, it amplifies that notion even further. Distance almost always has some effect with the venues being wide open, and long iron play helps with the length of the shots in front of us. Other small factors are worth a deeper dive, but this is one of the better tracks we could get for having zero data at our disposal.

• Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split between distance over accuracy. I want golfers that can carry and cut off any of the danger along the way.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage (17.5%) – I will always be on the heavier side of things when given a Par-72.
• Weighted Bentrass (15%) – This category incorporates a 50/50 split between SG:Total on Bentgrass and SGl Putting on Bentgrass. The goal is to find who likes the surface and then marginally add putting into the mix so we don’t just get the premier ball-strikers that can’t finish their work.
• SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (12.5%) – ANOTHER POTENTIAL BIRDIE FEST.
• Proximity From 175+ Yards (15%) – That stat was a staple in almost any Fazio design that I looked into
• Three-putt Avoidance + Around The Green (10%) – The breakdown there is 60% three putt and 40% ATG. These are large surfaces that can get dried out because of the Vegas heat, and short game is going to matter with the undulation at the property
• Weighted Bunker Play (12.5%) – The stat is made up of 70% sand save percentage from green side traps and 30% GIR percentage from fairway bunkers. As I just mentiond. Players with distance will be able to cut off the doglegs, so that is why I weighed the green side ones heavier.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Dustin Johnson ($11,300) – Dustin Johnson is overpriced because of his Ryder Cup performance, but this is one of those spots where I can live with that notion because there is a chance to leverage his ownership to the field. He ranks inside the top five of my model and has always excelled on these fast bentgrass-type properties where straightforward scoring and distance matter. None of this is to say that we can’t fit in more options from the top, but Johnson is one of only two players in this range that grades as a value when looking at ownership versus rank. The other is the man coming up next.

Rory McIlroy ($10,100) – Rory McIlroy is probably my preferred play when looking at stats and ownership combined. McIlroy can easily be paired with another big gun, or you can even choose to start a lineup with him separately. I don’t think you are required to play anybody in this range if you are trying to get contrarian, but the perception is so poor around the Irishman lately that it is opening up a possibility to get him under the radar. McIlroy ranks as the #1 total driver in my model when I restructured the stats to fit this specific course.

Favorite Cash Play– Justin Thomas ($11,100)

$9,000 Range

Tony Finau ($9,600) – Tony Finau has a ton of statistical data pointing in his favor. He ranks second in strokes gained total at bentgrass properties, including being 19th when just looking at putting on these greens. Finau is a good bunker player and should be able to use his length to take advantage of the wide-open nature.

Cameron Smith ($9,200) – Surprisingly, Cameron Smith is actually the top-ranked golfer in my model. I build my spreadsheet without DraftKings prices being incorporated as any sort of a built-in total towards the weight, but you would be surprised how infrequently this scenario plays itself out of where a low-$9,000 dollar golfer grades as the top player. It did happen for Sungjae last week also, but that was a weaker field. I am speaking more of these star-studded events. I couldn’t tell you the last time I didn’t see Rahm, Cantlay, Thomas, Bryson, Rory, Dustin or Morikawa at the top. I know not all those players are in the field this week, but we do have enough to make it worthwhile that Smith is number one. The Aussie grades second in my weighted bentgrass category, first in par-five scoring and first in weighted bunker play.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) – I believe some DFS users might be jumping off the bandwagon too early after Scottie Scheffler’s disastrous showing at TPC Summerlin. Sure, it wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but the American is a golfer that succeeds at these easy courses that reward driving. Scheffler’s upside is unquestioned, and the no-cut narrative should ease some tension.

Additional Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($9,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) and Abraham Ancer ($9,100) are my three least favorite options in this range.

$8,000 Range

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,400) – Tyrrell Hatton ranks 11th in my model for scoring at short courses and ninth in long iron proximity. This will be GPP-only, but the Englishman has the firepower with his long irons to compete if he can keep his head on straight.

Paul Casey ($8,200) – Paul Casey has gained with his irons in 15 straight starts. OTT in seven of eight. And even though the putter has been ice cold, bentgrass is his best surface. Sometimes you don’t need to look any further than value, and Casey has proven he can pay off his salaries when priced this far down the board. I think he is one of the better values to be found.

Patrick Reed ($8,000) – I think Joel said it best on the live show we do here for Win Daily – “Patrick Reed is mispriced.” It has taken me longer in the week to come around to that realization, but the American is an incredible GPP target that has the upside to win this event. He shouldn’t be sub-five percent owned, and it won’t take much to find yourself overweight.

Other Thoughts: Harris English ($8,900) and Shane Lowry ($8,300) are playable in this range.

$7,000 Range

Joaquin Niemann ($7,400) – My model has Joaquin Niemann correctly priced at $9,100. Niemann ranks third for me in my recreated total driving stat and is also 13th for three-putt avoidance. The numbers are better than the form, as he has gained with his irons in 13 of 16 and off the tee in 10 of his past 12.

Alex Noren ($7,100) – Back-to-back top-10s for Alex Noren in his last two starts. The Swede is a great putter that can go low in these birdie shootouts, and while his proximity numbers might leave something to be desired, I do think his short game can clean up most of those mistakes.

Cameron Tringale ($7,000) – A lack of upside might hurt Cameron Tringale for a birdie shootout, but he is the 40th priced golfer in a field where he is a top-20 candidate. That is good enough for me to play him.

Additional Thoughts: Don’t say Jason Day… Don’t say Jason Day…Don’t say Jason Day…

$6,000 Range

Stewart Cink ($6,500) – Stewart Cink is the biggest advantage I have when looking at ownership versus model rank, and it amplifies when I use Cink’s upside as a weight. The American is sneaky long, and we still are looking at sub-one percent ownership. That is a potential recipe to win large-field GPPs

Carlos Ortiz ($6,200) – Irons have turned around for Carlos Ortiz as of late, gaining in eight of nine starts. His driver has seen a similar trajectory after recording a positive total in six of seven.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,400) – Davis didn’t make the main list because of ownership, Matt Jones ($6,300)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.