PGA GPP

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas ($10,900) – I know we have potential issues around Justin Thomas this week. He hasn’t played the Farmers since 2015 — an event where he missed the cut, but there are reasons to be optimistic about his 19th-place finish during the 2021 U.S. Open. The one-time major winner entered the back-nine that day with a real shot to win his second major, but multiple mistakes at the par-four 10th and par-three 16th sent the American freefalling off the first page of the leaderboard. By my math, Thomas has the second-best win equity in this field but is being treated like one of the forgotten about high-priced stars.

Xander Schauffele ($10.100) – It has been all-or-nothing for Xander Schauffele at Torrey Pines, as we have seen him three top-25 finishes during his last four stops at Torrey to go along with missing four of his first five. Schauffele is more of a boom-or-bust than anyone would care to recognize, but I believe we get the best version of him, which makes him a true threat for the title.

Other Consideration – There is decent leverage here in most spots.

$9,000 Range

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900) – There is always some downside when you back Bryson DeChambeau on the DFS slate, but the fact that we get him both sub-$10,000 and sub-10 percent is enough for me to find myself not exactly Hulk-smash fit but definitely overweight.

Other Targets: Scottie Scheffler $9,500 (GPPs),Marc Leishman $9,000 (all games). Finau is probably good chalk at $9,100.

$8,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($8,900) – I wouldn’t sweat the missed cut. The Farmers Insurance Open is. better layout for his game, and he has been on a rhythm when we remove last week’s debacle.

Maverick McNealy ($8,300) – We have seen tons of sharp money enter the market on Maverick McNealy. California and Poa are where he shines best.

Other Thoughts: Matthew Wolff $8,500 (GPPs), Max Homa $8,400 (GPPs)

$7,000 Range

Wyndham Clark ($7,200) – There is a potential opening for Wyndham Clark that my model noticed. There has been a change as of late after Clark managed to gain with his irons in four of six starts — highlighted by a 13th place finish during last week’s American Express. The 220th-ranked golfer in the world has two top-40s in his three tries at Torrey Pines, and this is with him averaging nearly three shots worse to the field with his irons in those finishes.

Additional Thoughts: Billy Horschel $7,800 (GPPs), Joaquin Niemann $7,700 (GPPs), Matt Jones $7,200

$6,000 Range

Sepp Straka ($6,300) – Sepp Straka opens up the world if you fit him into a build. Course history looks good. The current form is a positive. There is a ton to like about his potential.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I would play down here sparringly.

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

PGA West Stadium Course

7,200 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Overseeded Poa

I want to make sure I don’t overcomplicate this process because that might do more harm than good. There will be a ton of strange quirks that we aren’t used to seeing during most stops, which can add some hesitation on the correct way to handle everything in front of us. For me, I am going to try and make as many connections between the three setups this week as I can because that is the only way in my mind to play a tournament that has a 54-hole cut and rotational nature.

The first thing that stuck out to me was that it appears as if the Bermuda grass is dormant at all tracks. If that is the case, it means we will get a Poa overseeded texture. I didn’t use that in my calculations because all the venues are easy, but let’s instead talk about what numbers I did find pertinent to my research process. All three courses are under 7,200 yards. That places them inside the 15 shortest on tour. We also see all three rank inside the bottom-15 in difficulty — that is just another way of saying they are straightforward. There is only so much we can do from a statistical perspective to get unique, but here is how I ended up weighing my model.

• Total Driving (25%) – We have seen accuracy guys like Ancer find success here in the past, which is why it is being added to the equation, but I still believe distance over accuracy is the way to go because it does take away so many of the potential problems. That ended up being a 65/35 split to get total driving. 
• GIR Percentage Out Of Fairway Bunkers(10%) – If golfers do miss the fairways, it likely will leave them in these extensive fairway bunkers.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) -Golfers will get 16 chances to score on those holes across the three stops, and it has been the most indicative category to finding success of anything we get this week. 
• Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
• Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I condensed it to par-three average and bogey avoidance. You could get deeper with it and include proximity ranges, but I bypassed both. Maybe that is the incorrect mindset, but when you get courses as easy as these three, some of that almost burdens a model when you say a poor putter or bad proximity player can’t find a recipe for success. Those two stats aren’t exactly the most predictive in many ways.
• Strokes Gained Total On Easy Courses Under 7,200 (25%) – Categories like this combine all three tracks and give us an easily identified blueprint.
• Strokes Gained Total On Pete Dye (10%) – That only applies to the Stadium Course, but once again, that is where 50% of the rounds will take place.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on our Win Daily Show on Tuesday night, “You could make Jon Rahm $12,500, and it would be acceptable.” Let’s see where the ownership goes, but there is no reason he should be this close in price to the likes of Scottie Scheffler or as close in popularity as he is to Patrick Cantlay. Rahm is the best player in every field but is especially strong in a tournament that drops off like the American Express.

Tony Finau ($10.200) – Is the price tag a little high? Sure. But it has created quite the leverage spot for Tony Finau, who might end up being the lowest owned player above $9,000 this week. Finau has posted two top-14s in his stops to the event since 2020.

Other Consideration – Scottie Scheffler does grade third in my model. I have some concerns, but this is the kind of course we would anticipate him finding success.

$9,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($9,700) – The price and ownership might be problematic to some, but I wouldn’t let it affect my decision-making. Gooch is priced where he should be for the week, and I think we need to start accepting that this could be who he is as a player moving forward.

Other Targets: Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris (GPPs) – Sungjae Im is in play for all game types

$8,000 Range

Justin Rose ($8,600) – Justin Rose ranks inside the top-10 on easy courses and also has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. I have an outright ticket on him at 55/1.

Si Woo Kim ($8,300) – Pete Dye specialist? Check. Good on short courses? Check. I haven’t given up hope that Si Woo Kim turns everything around very shortly.

Carlos Ortiz ($8,200) – @StixPicks has ‘Hammer Kid’ locked Carlos Ortiz to come top-40. I have never seen him lose on a selection like that, which is good enough for me to roll with Ortiz in all game types this week.

Other Thoughts: Rickie Fowler ($8,500), Alex Noren ($8,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,100) are all in play for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Jason Day ($7,300) – Perhaps my favorite play above $7,000 on DraftKings this week is Jason Day. The problem with me saying this is that I have cried wolf for three straight years that every tournament was the Day show, even when he wasn’t in the field. Hence, why it might lose some of its luster after a while, but this is legitimately one of the first times that it isn’t just an act on my part. It kind of goes with what I have been saying about the model mimicking DraftKings pricing to a T, and then you get this massive deviation here with Day, who ranks 9th for me on my model. The Aussie is the number one golfer on short courses since 2018 – a time frame that does include the bad version of himself. I am legitimately encouraged by his potential this time around.

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,700), Taylor Moore ($7,300)

$6,000 Range

J.T. Poston ($6,400) – Three top-37s to go along with two missed cuts since 2017. Part of the reason for his success is the par-five scoring. He ranks inside the top-30 in this field

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Davis RIley $6,800, Dylan Frittelli $6,800

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

When we look at Waialae Country Club, the property was designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor but did undergo an enhancement by Tom Doak in 2016. The purpose of the improvement was to try and bring back the old-school feel of the property, and I think Doak did that job perfectly. The venue is straightforward in its flat, boring setup, but there are doglegs where golfers will need to work the ball in both directions.

There are 12 par-fours in general. Ten of those stretch between 400-500 yards. The condensed nature from those holes produces 12.8% more second shots from 125-200 yards than average. I noticed a heavy correlation between the PGA Tour’s definition of ball striking and positive results. That combination looks at a mixture of accuracy and distance and then blends in GIR % to derive a total. Most of it is cumulative in how their website looks into the data, but I always make mine slightly more weighted into particular areas that I find relevant over the PGA’s basic construction.

Before we get into the statistical breakdown that I used, the last two things worth noting would be that the wind is the one real defense of the property. We have seen a three-shot difference in production when gusts pick up, and the second area that I found interesting is putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than a typical stop.

• Ball-Striking (25%) – I took an even split of distance and accuracy. I realize accuracy is more pertinent to finding success at Waialae, but golfers can easily club down off the tee. That is what Justin Thomas and Patton Kizzire did during the years they won the title, and it was another scenario where I noticed pushing numbers too far towards accuracy seemed to do a disservice to the model. Maybe you could look at a stat like fairways gained and increase the weight that way, but I still don’t love it because there are so many courses some of your bombers nosedive their totals throughout the year. I then took the average of that total driving number and weighed it in with GIR percentage in a 65/35 split towards GIR.
• Pertinent Proximity Ranges (10%) – Sixty-seven percent of irons come between 125-200 yards. I am marginally lower on approach play this week than most in the industry, but there are roundabout ways to get unique. I think GIR % is one. Breaking it down into this specific distance is another. And the reason we receive 67% of irons from this relatively basic zone is because of what I mentioned earlier of there being 10 par-fours between 400-500 yards. There are a lot of landing areas that will be similar for all players in the field
• Weighted Par-Four (17.5%) – It is a pretty basic split there of 34% overall par-four average and then 33% each on 400-450 and 450-500. 
• Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
• Mixture of Strokes Gained Total on Bermuda + Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda (20%) – That is my way of looking into Bermuda as a whole and gradually inserting putting into the mix. Everyone knows that I don’t love putting numbers, but we can’t ignore it here. Putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than an average stop. Bermuda putting is one of the ways to make it more relevant to Waialae. 
• Birdie or Better Percentage (10%) – That is an extension of scoring to go along with how golfers perform at easy courses that are shorter. 

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Webb Simpson ($10,500) – We are going to have to be cognizant of collective ownership amongst our six golfers. It is going to be nearly impossible to bypass the chalk in general, so it will be a lineup-by-lineup decision for me when I make builds. Webb Simpson is the number overall player in my model. Unfortunately, he is also number one in ownership. You will have to make a decision when it comes to how much exposure you want, but nobody produces yearly at the same tracks in the fashion of Webb.

Sungjae Im ($10.300) – The ownership is where it should be for the week. The price tag is fair. Those aren’t exactly ringing endorsements for a golfer that is going to far exceed his projection, but I do think he is the second-best route on this board. Im’s irons have turned around after a cold stretch in the middle of 2021, and we have seen him average 2.25 over his last four starts with that approach game.

Other Consideration – Cameron Smith ($11,200) – Either Cameron Smith or Hideki Matsuyama will be your best leverage route to consider. I don’t love Hideki’s upside because of his inability to make putts at a birdie fest, but we know Smith is a winner.

$9,000 Range

Kevin Na ($9,900) – Joel and I mentioned this about Kevin Na on our show, but it bears repeating. While Kevin Na is technically overpriced as one of the big boys in this field at $9,900, the leverage he provides at roughly 10 percent more than makes up for the price tag. You want players you like to be higher priced because it creates more playability when others are down on them.

Corey Conners ($9,600) – Corey Conners should have likely been in the $10,000 zone. I wish he would have been for all the reasons I just mentioned about Kevin Na, but there is a ton to love about the Canadian. Conners ranks first in my model for ball-striking and has gained nearly twice as many strokes on these greens versus any other surface in the world. If the putter remains hot at the track, the sky is the limit.

Other Targets: Abraham Ancer (GPPs)

$8,000 Range

Billy Horschel ($8,700) – Billy Horschel isn’t going to be for everyone, and I am okay with that. The Florida product ranks 15th at easy courses under 7,200 yards and ninth in my mixture of Bermuda scoring. Sub-10 percent is a great number.

Matt Jones ($8,400) – I like Matt Jones to keep the train rolling in Hawaii. Let’s see where the ownership comes in for the week, but if he can hover outside of the top-15 projection totals on the board, the safety Jones brings allows us to remove some of the other qualities we would like to see in his statistical makeup.

Charles Howell III ($8,000) – Charles Howell IIII looks to be one of the better cash-game values on the board at $8,000. I am willing to give him a look in GPPs if the ownership remains sub-15 percent, and his course history has been magnificent. He hasn’t missed a cut during his career in 19 tries. He has provided 15 top-30s, with nine of those landing inside the top eight.

Other Thoughts: Kevin Kisner is playable at $8,900

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,700) – I have Si Woo Kim inside the top-10 in outright win equity. He places ninth at easy courses under 7,200 yards. There is always going to be combustibility that he falters, but he does rank inside of the top-60 in every category I ran. We know that when he gets into contention that he can win, and 6-7 percent is way too low for his popularity on DraftKings. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the first page of the leaderboard when all is said and done.

Additional Thoughts: I am going to mix-and-match options, but my next two favorite targets would be Keegan Bradley ($7,400) and Stewart Cink ($7,200)

$6,000 Range

Nick Hardy ($6,600) – Fourteenth here last year. A great iron player that hits a ton of greens in regulation. He will need to keep the ball in the fairway, but my numbers love him.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Max McGreevy $6,900, Michael Thompson $6,900, Harry Higgs $6,900, Chan Kim $6,300, Andrew Novak $6,300

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Kapalua Plantation Course

7,596 Yards – Par 73 – Greens: Bermuda

To me, this is one of the most straightforward courses that we have on tour every season. There are pros and cons to that answer since I tend to like the ability to diversify my thought process from the masses, but 50-yard wide fairways highlight a venue where players are going to be able to do anything they want off the tee. Think of a birdie fest where the tour wants golfers to receive a start of the year present to reward their accomplishment from the season before.

It is worth noting that Kapalua is the only Par 73 that golfers play on tour each year. That, along with elevation, quiets the nearly 7,600-yard total that might appear jarring at first glance if you removed those two factors from the mix. I think distance is certainly weighable, but the fact that the top-six participants last year finished 25th, 17th, 7th, 31st, 12th and 32nd in distance off the tee during the event tells me that placing it into a model might do so more harm than good.

Instead, I would rather look at more course-specific stats since we get a unique layout. There are 11 par-fours. Eight are under 425 yards; the additional three play at least 520 yards. The four par-fives are the most accessible holes. Three of them yield a 48.7% birdie or better rate. The fifth hole is the most getable at 63.2%, and the grainy Bermuda surface can slow things down and provide some tricky lag putts when we consider that proximity is about 7-feet higher than players might expect. As always, you can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown, including the one I do weekly with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck, where we handicap the entire show live at 5:00 pacific time on Tuesday – only at WinDaily Sports.

• Par-Five Birdie or Better (17.5%) & Birdie or Better (17.5%) – I realize 35% on scoring is a ton, but 34 of the 42 players last year were 11-under par or better. You will have to reach a minimum of 25-under to win this thing if winds don’t alter the event. In my opinion, we can’t afford to be underweight to either category when small margins are going to decide the winner.
• Pertinent Proximity Ranges (15%) – That gets us into 45.1% of approach shots when looking at the specific ranges from 0-100 and 200+. I don’t love leaving 50%+ of a quantifiable statistic on the table, but I found it to be a unique approach because it starts to hone in on where most of the scoring opportunities will present themselves. Sure, I might miss out on random chance between a yardage stretching between 100-125 yards, but proximity totals tend to be a faulty statistic when you aren’t building it out to mimic a course entirely. A golfer that can hit an iron from 99 yards doesn’t all of a sudden lose it when the distance goes to 101.
• Putting From 5-10 Feet (10%) – I prefer this route over three-putt percentage for two core reasons. And btw, I think you can use three-putt instead and be just fine, but 1. It separates my thought process marginally when most users will implement the alternative into their weights, but more importantly, these greens are wildly different from most stops where issues might arise. Often, problems come from speed issues where the ball rolls quickly past the hole, creating the break and speed being tough to figure out correctly coming back. We won’t have that situation here. Putting does seem to be easy from 5-10 feet for good putters, which shows why golfers that excel from that distance have found success in the past.
• Course Specific Par-Four (15%) – That incorporates 30% on scoring between 350-400 yards, 40% 400-450 and 30% 500+. Some notable top-seven golfers there were Reed, Xander, Leishman Spieth, Rahm and Thomas. That is every winner in this field since 2014 besides Harris English, who finished a respectable 14th in that category. 
• Strokes Gained Total on Slow-to-Average Bermuda (12.5%) – View this as a secondary way to get putting into the mix.
• Strokes Gained Total on Easy to Hit Fairways at Average-To-Long Courses (12.5%) – I like this statistic because it doesn’t punish your wayward drivers like Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed. If they can win here, I want to see who improves when the fairways open up, not who can hit it the longest or the straightest on a standard track. 

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,000) – Jon Rahm has never finished worse than 10th in his four prior showings at Kapalua, and it is going to be impossible to run an adequate model that doesn’t at least show him to be one of the main threats to take home the title. This week, my biggest issue with him is that he typically turns into a better play when the course becomes more difficult. These birdie fests limit his upside, although we can work around that if the leverage situation remains where it is with him being only 20%.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10.200) – Bryson DeChambeau is in a bit of a different boat than we just talked about with Jon Rahm, even if their ownership percentages are within the same ballpark. The reason I mention that is because the American has a specific skill set that likely produces the most runaway type potential of anyone in this field, but there are red flags for a golfer that ranks last in this tournament between 0-100 yards in my model. We know he will be bombing drives off the tee and playing with a ton of short irons into the greens, and there are multiple ways the week could unfold for him. I am willing to place him into my core because the potential for victory exceeds any golfer in this field not named Justin Thomas, but the 50% discount in popularity is just too juicy to ignore when looking at a potential pivot.

Fade – Viktor Hovland ($10,000) – I don’t want to overanalyze the 31st place finish last year for Viktor Hovland, but there are concerns on my end with his ranking of 38 out of 38 players in this field around the green over his past 24 rounds. These are large surfaces that will amplify his struggles if he does happen to miss, and I’m not necessarily encouraged by his 35th place rank when looking at just slow Bermuda.

$9,000 Range

Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) – Sign me up if Patrick Cantlay goes off this week at 20% ownership. In a vacuum situation, the American would be the best play in the $9,000s, and it only amplifies that notion when he is 7-10% lower than his counterparts.

Other Targets: None. I won’t talk anyone out of Xander Schauffele ($9,500), but I prefer going Cantlay if adding from this range.

$8,000 Range

Jordan Spieth ($8,900) – Jordan Spieth is likely my favorite play on the entire board. The American ranks first in this field when it comes to par-four average, easy to hit fairways and strokes gained total on Bermuda and hasn’t finished outside of ninth place at this track in his four starts here since 2014.

Brooks Koepka ($8,500) – Brooks Koepka is a shot in the dark, but would it really shock anyone if he won the event at 5-10% ownership? He is GPP only, but the poor perception around him while playing non-majors does create a window of massive potential at only $8,500 and nine percent ownership.

Abraham Ancer ($8,100) – It has taken a few days for me to come around to Abraham Ancer, but there is a leverage window opening. I don’t think he is a better GPP target than the man beneath him in this article, but the fruitful $8,000 range provides a cornucopia of options to decide between, including placing multiple of these golfers into the same build.

Tony Finau ($8,000) – If not for Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau would be the poster child for the $8,000 range, but he adds to the extensive group of options that are in play. Finau has struggled some lately on par-fives, but the wide-open fairways should allow him to use his distance and not worry about some of the misses that have troubled him over the past few months. 

Other Thoughts: Cameron Smith/Sungjae Im are high-owned choices that are worth considering.

$7,000 Range

Patrick Reed ($7,900), Harris English ($7,800), Jason Kokrak ($7,700), Marc Leishman ($7,500) – I listed the group together because there doesn’t seem to be a huge separation. You are going to have to sprinkle this collection into builds randomly, but I am not necessarily rushing to find myself overweight to any of them individually. English and Kokrak are projected to be the two that are lower-owned, so I’ll take them more than Reed and Leishman, who are projecting to be on the more popular side.

Additional Thoughts: The bottom drops off quickly

$6,000 Range

Phil Mickelson ($6,500) – Phil Mickelson is third in this field on slow Bermuda greens and also places at the same rank at longer courses that feature easy-to-hit fairways. We all know ‘Lefty’ is an absolute wizard with his short irons, and there is upside potential for him at a course that isn’t that different from a Champions Tour start. I like him at +200 to come top-20 on FanDuel, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him do better than that.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Garrick Higgo $6,400, Lucas Herbert $6,100

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Sea Island Golf Club

7,005 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. I always note that the main takeaway from a Fazio design is the extreme undulation that can be found throughout, but I think he did an excellent job of keeping the links-style nature about as pronounced as the day it was constructed.

One of the most notable things to keep in mind is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the Plantation Course. Rotational events are always a little more challenging to handicap, but there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type. I’m not going to go wild trying to model both courses into the mix since I think it does more harm than good when the more critical weekend rounds are going to be found at the same track, but I don’t mind adding in some emphasis on par-five scoring since the one-off day will feature four par-fives. I didn’t do that in my model, but I certainly believe it is on the table. Wind typically plays as a factor with narrow landing areas off the tee, and it is a benefit if you can find the short grass. On average, the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the fairway, which is right up there with the highest GIR percentage on tour. The putting surfaces are larger than average, and we have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for the sake of my research since one of them is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers are the 368-yard 8th hole and the 470-yard 18th.

The last two items I feel are worth mentioning would be 8.7% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond here than a typical stop. That is a little troublesome when building models because it suggests a putting contest, and then the distance of 125-175 on approach shots is 8.5% higher than average. All other ranges are below the median output total. Tournaments like this are tough to measure since putting plays such a prominent role, but I tried to get unique in my outlook. As always you can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown, including the one I do weekly with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck where we handicap the entire show live at 5:00 pacific time on Tuesday.

• Weighted Strokes Gained Category – Easy Courses/Bermuda Grass/Under 7,200 Yards (30%) – It was a relatively even split between the three, but to me, those three stats encompassed what I wanted to find at a venue that isn’t perfect from a quantifiable sense. It also let me combine statistics together that are 1. Predicable and consistent when we get set ups like this and 2. Might go under the radar as primary pieces of a calculation. 
• Weighted Putting + Iron Play (30%) –  I also did 30% on a recalculated metric that took proximity from 125-175 yards and putting from five feet and beyond on Bermuda greens and combined them together with a 65/35 split of putting over proximity to form a unique category there. That is the opposite of conventional wisdom when you typically do something like that since proximity tends to be more important than a random putting total, but I didn’t see a great deal of predictability from that range in past leaderboards. Yes, the plurality of shots come there, but the easy answer remains that more putts are being made from 10-feet and beyond, which naturally means irons aren’t being hit as close. 
• Moderate To Severe Wind (10%) – It is still an easy course, but the one true defense can be the gusts. I thought it helped to have it in my model to an extent, even if it is an outlier type stat.
• Greens In Regulation Gained (15%) –  I noted this on my ‘Be The Number’ podcast that I wanted to try and avoid the GIR or accuracy routes this week because it starts making the same builds as every other user. That obviously has less importance in the betting market since what others are betting has little impact on what I am going to do, but I did like this stat because of the correlation I found from past leaderboards
• Par-Four Scoring 400-450 Yards (15%) – That is another outlier category that isn’t great for modeling purposes, but the fact that I have rounded us off to have 10 means over 55% of the scoring chances come in this precise zone. That has to mean something when we are condensing data into the same range over and over again. 

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler (10,900) – It has been a quick turnaround for Scottie Scheffler, who is just a few weeks removed from a much cheaper price tag. However, some of these spots can be intriguing when a player is marginally overpriced but comes in as one of the pivots of the range. I am curious to see where Scheffler heads by Wednesday night, but it is the same theory I mentioned with him last week at the Houston Open. My model thinks he is a negative value against his price. A positive value against his ownership. And he is the betting favorite in all H2H matchups. Not that I take that to be worth a ton, but it at least doubles down the notion that multiple outlets have him as the man to beat. I’m going to keep an eye on where his popularity goes, but I can find interest in playing him if this hovers anywhere near 10 percent.

Webb Simpson (10,700) – My model always likes Webb Simpson, and it particularly finds interest in him when he gets handed a track where he has found past success. We see that here with two top-three results over his past three showings, although it is worth noting that there have been two additional finishes inside the 30s since 2016. That technically means this might not be as robust of a venue as locations like the Wyndham Championship, Sony Open or RBC Heritage, but there isn’t a better golfer on tour when it comes to predictability at the same events yearly.

Louis Oosthuizen ($10,400) – Louis Oosthuizen has surprisingly gone ice cold with his putter, losing in four straight events and averaging negative-two strokes per start. Oosthuizen is leading this field in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds, so if he is able to flip the script with what should be the best part of his game, the stats are trending towards a big result. I do have some concerns with him for cash-game-type contests because it is always scary when what you do best isn’t working, but that can easily be fixed, especially for something like an outright ticket. We don’t need the safety in a bet like that and just want upside. As far as things go for GPPs, I am going to find myself overweight on him because of the upside he possesses. The South African looks to be the lowest-owned option of the big four, and I believe he carries as much win equity as whoever you want to compare him to for the week.

Cameron Smith ($10,300) – Cameron Smith is the number one ranked player in my model when looking for that recipe of irons + putting and is also fifth when it comes to scoring on an easy course. The Aussie has some of the most playability across the board in my mind.

Fade – Harris English ($10,100) – I don’t feel as strongly about this as I did before talking to Joel Schreck on our live show, but Harris Enlgish remains off the table completely for me in cash after withdrawing from the CJ Cup when his back flared up a few weeks ago. I can see more of the interest in GPPs because of how he fits statistically in a few areas, but I prefer him on long iron tests than these pitch and putt events.

$9,000 Range

Corey Conners ($9,900) – I guess I am all in on Corey Conners at the RSM. Here is a list of categories where he graded in the top-10 of my model. You will see it is almost across the board in every pertinent measurable, including various others that I didn’t include into my mix but still found worth looking into. I will note that OTT is a few percent more impactful here than an average tour stop. A lot of that is because of the accuracy that comes into play, but we have seen good OTT players like Jason Day and Luke List take varying routes to find success. Conners is second in the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee over the two-year model that I run, and he grades inside of the top-10 in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained total, strokes gained at easy courses, venues under 7,200 cards, wind play, Bermuda grass, par-four scoring from 400-450 yards, accuracy, GIRs gained and his combination of putting + iron play. When we look at just that weighted putting total, he turns into one of the biggest climbers when running a model to find how a golfer improves when putting from distance versus an overall array of the stat. The top-five largest improvements I had came from Branden Grace, Russell Henley, Conners, Matt Wallace and Charles Howell III. 

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,700), Adam Scott ($9,000) – I tend to believe Russell Henley is a better outright bet than he is DraftKings play at 20%.

$8,000 Range

Chris Kirk ($8,000) – Chris Kirk is one of just four players to grade inside the top-19 for me in all metrics that I looked at in my model. The other three were Corey Conners, Webb Simpson and Russell Henley.

Other Thoughts: Justin Rose ($8,800), Brendon Todd ($8,400) and Seamus Power ($8,200) are where I am most interested in finding additional exposure. I do like Joel Dahmen ($$8,500), but I would prefer for his ownership to drop by a few points for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Brian Harman $7,800 –  Brain Harman is GPP-only at $7,800, but he is one of the better contrarian values I can find in this group. Three top-32s in his last four at the track. The iron play is worrisome having lost in seven straight, but while the results during that time have been far from good, he isn’t exactly bombing in his performances either. Three have resulted in missed cuts. The rest have ranged from 29th to 75th. He is definitely far from my favorite play because of his lack of safety, but I do think he has top-20 win equity in this field. That means something when nobody looks like they want to use him 

Charles Howell $7,800 – Charles Howell III can be fit into pretty much any build and ranks as one of the five best improvements in this field when given this specific green type.

Matt Wallace $7,600 – Matt Wallace is someone that never grades out well for me but landed fourth in my model when looking at overall rank. The best way to deploy him is likely in cash, but 10-11% is low enough for me to consider in GPPs as well.

Additional Thoughts: JASON DAY ($7,600), Kevin Streelman ($7,600), Branden Grace ($7,400), Emiliano Grillo ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,300), Brian Stuard ($7,200) and Alex Smalley ($7,100) are plays I will be finding myself on in various spots. I didn’t include them with the top group because I just looked at the highest priced choices, but there is value to be found throughout in this range.

$6,000 Range

Michael Thompson ($6,700) – Twelve consecutive rounds of being par or better to go along with four made cuts. Those are huge benefits for a golfer that now draws a venue that suits his game as the ninth-ranked player in this field for accuracy and 21st at courses under 7,200 yards.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Harry Higgs ($6,900), Zach Johnson ($6,900), Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Cameron Davis ($6,800), Andre Putnam ($6,400), Davis Thompson ($6,400)

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