Another big WIN last week for Win Daily, as Spencer (@TeeOffSports) successfully tipped Wyndham Clark at triple figure odds of 100/1!!
Before getting into our betting tips for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Pebble Beach Golf Links and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Pebble Beach golf betting tips below.
It was fantastic finally securing a winner after a month of runner-ups and close finishes on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. To do so at the Farmers Insurance Open at 125/1 with Matthieu Pavon only made it even sweeter.
You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.
Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Jordan Spieth heads the list. The course history is obvious, as is the resurgence to form, and his correlated win at Harbor Town. However, the weather raises concern with the inherent volatility that this will bring. Likewise, with just the one start in 2024 question marks remain whether the improvement in performance is here to stay. He was simply a tad too short when compared to my preferred option at the top of the market.
Russell Henley was considered at 50/1, although the Sony Open was again a reminder that he may struggle to get across the line as often as he should. I preferred to emphasise putting more this week as well, which contributed to his exclusion along with Chris Kirk at 80/1. Finally, Noren holds obvious abilities in the wind. He was tough to leave out. He struggles in the key approach range of 100-150 yards. Additionally, he has missed the cut here twice when hitting the ball relatively well. I’d have likely taken him at 100/1 rather than the 80s on offer.
Suggested Staking
Updated Monday 29 January 8:00am
Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite
5pts E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)
Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)
Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)
Speculative Play
0.5pt Straight Forecast Homa to beat Schauffele +20000 (Bet365)
Once I saw the weather forecast, there was one name I wanted to head my betting card if we could get the right number. Having opened at just 15/1 in the UK, I was very pleased to see Max Homa open at 22/1 in win only markets.
Homa’s aptitude for performing in his home state of California is well documented. He is a winner at Riviera, Torrey Pines, and twice at the Fortinet Championship in Napa. An element of comfortability in the area and, particularly, on the poa annua surfaces could well be key this week.
What excited me about the weather was Homa’s clear aptitude to find the top of the leaderboard in such conditions. His 2022 Wells Fargo Championship and Fortinet Championship wins both came in miserable wet conditions. Perhaps some of the comes to his mental toughness. He has the word “Relentless” tattooed on his right wrist and would often tell his Cal teammates “you have to be a bulldog, you just got to be tough”.
Max Homa has finished 10-14-7 his last three starts on this course, all when this was still a full field event. He should benefit from the removal of Monterey Peninsula, his weakest course of the three. Of no surprise, he is one of the best in the world for approach from 100-150 yards. Additionally, he gets the easier but more exposed Pebble Beach in calmer weather on Thursday.
Homa has finished no worse than 21st since June 2023, a run of 11 straight tournaments. More remarkably, he has finished 14th or better in the 10 events since July 2023. The majors are the obvious next step for him, but winning on an iconic course like Pebble Beach will be high on his goals as he is in our betting tips.
Outside Homa, we move right down the board to golfers 80/1 or longer. The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, we have assigned some heavy weighting on Homa. Secondly, in a event likely to prove volatile with the weather and a small 80 man field there could well be some decent value at the lower end of the board this week.
The first of those is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. A three time winner at DP World Tour level, Bezuidenhout went awfully close to his debut PGA Tour victory when runner-up at the American Express two weeks ago. A missed cut at Torrey Pines was unsurprising, being a week after that run and on a golf course that really is far too long for him.
Bezuidenhout has played here just once for a 14th placed finish. Notably, this came after an indifferent opening 71 on the now excluded Monterey Peninsula. He gained +1.90 strokes to the field at Spyglass Hills. However, he did by far his best work at Pebble Beach. Closing with rounds of 66-69 there, he gained a cumulative +6.75 strokes to the field on the weekend.
He does his best approach work from 100-150 yards, sitting in the top 20% in the world over the last 12 months. His game really does look to be elevating of late. He is the best in the field over the past 3 months for SG: APP and 6th for SG: Putting. He is also in the top 25% in this field for SG: ATG over the past 6 months. That combination of the key approach range with an excellent short-game is ideal for Pebble Beach. Ideally, he gets the first tee-time on Pebble Beach for Thursday.
Hadwin looks to be clear value at 100/1 this week. Another on the improve, he was 6th when last sighted at the American Express in La Quinta California.
He has a great record on this course, with form of 39-18-MC-16. The latest 16th place finish included losing 4 strokes on the greens. Given he has gained significantly on the greens in his other three appearances, it speaks to his suitability on this unique approach test. He is also the 9th best putter in this field over the past 6 months.
The approach data from 100-150 yards is some of the best you can find. He is in the top 2% for good shot percentage from that yardage and, additionally, he is in the top 7% for strokes gained in this approach bucket in the world over the last 12 months. For this particular field, he ranks 10th for SG: APP from this yardage. Hadwin also is the third group out on Thursday at Pebble Beach.
Performance in wild weather is also evident. Most notably, he finished 9th in the extremes of The Players Championship in 2022. The benefit of being accurate but also decently long off the tee, combined with a superb chipper and putter, will be an asset in these conditions.
Finally, we round out our selections with Andrew Putnam. Putnam’s lack of distance should be no issue on this golf course, with his excellent driving accuracy a potential benefit in the high winds.
Again, sticking to the key approach range of 100-150 yards really identifies Putnam. He is 7th for SG:APP in this field over the past 12 months there. He is in the top 95% or better in the world for SG, GIR, Good Shot % and Poor Shot Avoidance for approach in that range over the last year.
A 6th place finish here in 2022 was noteworthy, where he played very well at Spyglass Hill and in his first of the two rounds at Pebble Beach. An average final round can somewhat be excused to nerves when holding the joint 54 hole lead. He will be better for that experience, and arrives here a much improved prospect than 2 years ago.
Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my Pebble Beach betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.
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A huge WINNER last week for the WinDaily community, as David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1!
The PGA Draftcast crew are back to LIVE draft some more PGA Tour golf DFS, as they preview the Farmers Insurance Open!
Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the three courses used this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the American Express golf betting tips below.
As always, a few honourable mentions for this week. Adam Hadwin has an excellent desert record and equally as impressive a record here previously. He would’ve been preferred at 70s to the 50s that are on offer in this strength of field. Stephan Jaeger entered the frame given his ball-striking. Questions still remain about the putter with him. Clearly, that is a factor this week more than most. This might be the type of test that should suit Michael Kim at 150/1. However, others were just preferred ahead of him in that price range.
Finally, as mentioned in my preview article the average winning odds here are 130/1. I would, however, again mention that this field has seen increasing strength the last two years. Favourite Jon Rahm was victorious in 2023 at just +650, back when he was busy winning at every tournament he started. Obviously, he is not here to defend his title this week. But many other big names are returning. They dominate the market and, as such, it may still remain difficult for a very long outsider to shock the golf world here. Although we have found some value spots, the American Express betting tips reflect that reality.
Updated with best odds at 00:00ET 16 January
Suggested Staking
Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Min Woo Lee
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cam Davis
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Beau Hossler
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Unibet)
Austin Eckroat
0.5pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +162 (Bet365)
K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +170 (TAB) or +162 (Bet365)
Joseph Bramlett
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +275 (TAB)
We lead off the card with Sam Burns. Skipping the top of this betting board comes with obvious risks. However, if there was ever an event where we are going to take on the likes of Scheffler and Cantlay, it should probably be this one. Burns sits right below the elite of the game, yet receives a more generous price than some of his counterparts who for me rank in a similar tier. The 33/1 looks a fair few points too high when compared to the likes of Sungjae Im and Tom Kim at 20/1.
Unlike the latter of those two, Burns has plenty of driving distance ranking 11th in this field from the past 6 months. He also ticks the putting box, sitting 10th in SG: Putting in this field over the past year. An average week at The Sentry, when 33rd, can be forgiven when shaking off the rust. If anything, Burns looked consistent if not spectacular, carding 4 rounds in the 60s.
His course form here is superb, with a record of 18-6-MC-11. We see more hints to his potential suitability with a 2nd at the Byron Nelson on his first look there. Further, desert golf in Las Vegas has seen Burns secure a 20th, 34th, and 14th most recently.
The Pete Dye Stadium course, where two rounds are played, should suit him particularly well. Burns won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club, another Pete Dye design. Putting always receives a higher weighting in match-play events. Further, La Quinta Country Club has a large increase in long iron shots, with 35% of approach shots over 200 yards. That is very similar to the Copperhead Course, where Sam Burns has a fabulous record as two time winner of the Valspar Championship.
With his first professional start in 2024, it naturally comes with some risk putting up a golfer who hasn’t played a tournament since early December. However, he is far from the only one in that boat. 2024 has been a ear-marked by many pundits as a potential break-through year for the talented young Australian. A victory in this type of field would give him plenty of confidence that he can go on to even better things.
Much of the hype comes from a very strong end to last year. He won an event in Macao, as he should’ve given the opposition, and then in a stronger field at the Australian PGA Championship. Given his youth, Min Woo doesn’t have much in the way of desert experience from the PGA Tour. However, having been born in Perth Western Australia, he would’ve had plenty of opportunity over the years as well as playing in the famous Melbourne sand-belt region including during his amateur years.
This does look like the type of test that should suit his game. He is the 2nd longest driver, 12th for SG: Putting, and 13th for SG: ATG in this field over the past 12 months. Where he can lack in approach, this has seen continual improvement and his best area is for approach over 200 yards. He began the 2023 season with aplomb, finishing a close 2nd in the desert at a DP World Tour Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi with one of the strongest fields of the season. Let’s hope for another quick start this year.
We go back-to-back with the young Aussie golfers in our American Express betting tips with Cam Davis. Although he hails from the opposite side of Australia in Sydney, that is also closer to the sand belt region where he has a wealth of experience.
Davis’ sole PGA Tour victory came at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, far from the worse comp for here. Always a low scoring affair, it has become more of a bomber’s paradise over time. We perhaps expected Davis to kick-on from that victory earlier than he has. But, much akin to Min Woo, he had a strong end to 2023 and this could be the year he realizes that raw potential.
That included a run of 8 tournaments from July to November. Davis finished outside the top 12 just once in those events. Most relevant was a 7th place at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas, where he has never missed the cut in 5 appearances. Although missing the cut here last year, that only speaks to the volatility of this tournament. In 2021, he was 3rd at this event to compliment a 28th and 29th in his first two years on the PGA Tour.
A 4th at the PGA Championship and a 6th at The Players Championship suggest he is grown more comfortable in elite company. The latter of those two is hosted at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design. I like that Cam Davis saw marked improvement in both approach and driving accuracy across the two Hawaii tournaments. Look to the man who is the best putter in this field over the last 3 months to provide a strong showing this week.
A certain golfer made our 2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips write-up, where I noted he was possibly due for big things that year. The player was Wyndham Clark. He would later cash 80/1 winning tickets for us at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the US Open. I’ve included Beau Hossler among the names of golfers I think could be due for a big year in 2024.
Obviously, Clark was quite the anomaly and I don’t necessarily think that Hossler will go and win a major this year. I do see parallels in his improvement over the past 6 months though, and suspect a maiden victory is imminent.
Notably, we have seen some significant improvement from Hossler’s approach play in 2023. If looking at the past 24 months, Hossler ranks a lowly 123rd in SG: APP for this field. Over the past 3 months, he ranks 20th. In fact, over the past 6 months Hossler is 12th in this field for SG: TOTAL. Possessing plenty of distance off the tee and making plenty of putts, the approach is really the final key in the puzzle for him.
Having a 20th on debut at this event, he also holds a 17th at the Byron Nelson, and most recently was 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open. That started a run of 7-2-15 in his final 3 events of 2023. Whether he can start the season with the same fervor remains to be seen. The fact he is Californian born and raised might suggest some local comfort will be an assistance.
We enter three long-shot selections in our American Express golf betting tips, with the bet weighting favoured towards top 20 and top 40 finishes.
Beginning that list is Austin Eckroat. Hailing from Oklahoma, this is the sophomore season for Eckroat who finished the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in 2nd place. It was a decent rookie season for him, where he finished in the Top 20 in 20% of his starts. Most notably, the 10th placed finish at the US Open would’ve caught the eye of many who were not already aware of this rising star.
That golf course should prove somewhat decent guidance to here. Unlike many other US Open venues, the tournament was also held in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The course was fairly generous off the tee, with driving distance still a requisite skill.
Further suggesting this may be a decent spot, Eckroat had his best finish of the season at the Byron Nelson. His runner-up finish there should be well correlated to what is needed for victory this week.
We can probably keep things pretty simple with K.H. Lee. If the Byron Nelson is correlated to this tournament, K.H. Lee won that event for back-to-back victories in 2021 and 2022.
Adding to those claims, Lee’s recent run at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas has seen him finish 14-37-7 in his last three appearances there. Again, I’m not going to be overly critical of a mediocre record at this golf course. I take solace in the fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4 of 5 appearances, especially given that can be a hinderance to his performance.
Also eye-catching was Lee’s performance last week at the Sony Open. Although finishing 30th may not set the world alight, the irons looked back to their superb best sitting 6th for SG: APP. That was pleasing to see after not playing competitive golf since November. I believe he makes excellent value at 125/1.
Finally, I will wrap up my selections with a speculative bet on Joseph Bramlett.
Bramlett is 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the past 6 months, an impressive feat in a field with the likes of Scheffler, Cantlay, and Schauffele. It has long been the story for Bramlett that his excellent ball-striking can get left behind with the putter. That comes with some inherent risk at an event like this one. Much like Hossler, being born and going to college in California suggest that this type of surface may provide him with the best opportunity.
The desert form link at Byron Nelson is clear, where he finished 7th on debut followed by a 51st and 19th. Again, he doesn’t possess a stellar record here. However, he has made both previous cuts. Most pleasingly for our golf betting tips, he has putted at or above field average in 3/4 appearances at the American Express.
A 52nd last week was more promising than first viewed, considering it was the first event back after 6 months out with an undisclosed injury. That risk from both the rust from injury recovery and the putter do get built into the price, available at a whopping 200/1.
Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.
You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!
The PGA Draftcast crew are back to preview the American Express golf tournament!
After hitting Sahith Theegala at 60/1 for a MASSIVE first-round leader last week, golf is back and the PGA Draftcast are here for the LIVE Sony Open PGA Draft!
Well, you can’t ask for much better a start to the year than that! Before we delve into our Sony Open preview proper, it pays to reflect on a fabulous first week of the PGA Tour season. Although we unfortunately dropped Chris Kirk off our final betting card, we had a stunner of a tournament.
Our tips included Theegala in 2nd. He lipped out in the 18th for a play-off, and also delivered us a first-round leader at a massive 60/1!
As well as talking through our favourite PGA DFS plays, we always end the PGA Draftcast with a few FRL tips. Although I wouldn’t consider them “official” bets per se, it’s always a fun way to end the episode and nice to get a big winner!
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We also had Spieth in 3rd, who looked comfortable in a welcome return to form. Sungjae Im finished 5th. He broke the record for most birdies in a single tournament in PGA Tour history and somehow didn’t win, when an even par 3rd round 73 putting paid to his chances. Straka in 12th also cashed our Top 20 bet on him.
Basically, should Kirk have stumbled we had every other realistic option for the winner. To his credit, he looked incredibly calm under pressure and never looked stressed despite a studded leaderboard breathing down his neck. We should probably raise our expectations on his output, as he has looked so comfortable in both victories the past two years.
Before we get into the Sony Open, you can now read not only our free preview at The Sentry here but also get free access to our premium article from last week with our Sentry betting tips and player profiles here.
Nearly all Sony Open previews I read every year will refer to trends. My advice is to approach these with caution. A trend is only worthy of attention if there is an understandable reason why. Correlation does not always mean causation. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “X number of winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior”.
Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players of the PGA Tour the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and often win in a typically weak field.
I do believe there is an advantage in having played the week prior, to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust. However, I do believe this trend is over-played. I will often see punters and DFS players completely excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That is a huge overreaction to a tentative link at best.
The PGA Tour does indeed remain in Hawaii for another week. The Sony Open is once again played on the beautiful Wai’alae Country Club, as we preview what to expect from this golf course. The tournament has been held at the same venue since 1965, so we have plenty of data to delve into!
Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is as opposite as possible to last week’s Plantation Course at Kapalua. Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023.
Therefore, unsurprisingly driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. It can really grab onto the club face, as well as produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. That saw a reduction in scoring with -18 enough to win.
With large greens, it is surprising that SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. As the weather shows some heavy rains before the tournament, I would hazard a prediction we see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold. Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.
Prior form at Wai’alae Country Club is highly correlated to success. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin.
El Cameleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. Then, course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in tropical and coastal climes.
RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.
To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are predicted Monday, Tuesday, and early Wednesday this week. The volume of rain will be such that it will be impossible to firm out the course in time and conditions will be soft. As such, I would really be focusing on the key approach numbers listed. I also give a boost to SG: Putting over typical tournaments held here. Holding greens should be easier than previous iterations.
Thursday should present calm weather and, given the early rain, should provide low scoring. Friday sees light rain and overcast conditions all day. Winds should pick up, but they look to be high all day. This means there is less chance of a weather wave developing. Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is especially important for DFS purposes.
Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis.
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Before getting into our betting tips for the Sony Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.
A couple of notables that just missed out on the card this week. Brian Harman was heavily considered, continuing his great form finishing The Sentry in 5th ranking 12th for driving accuracy, 16th for SG: APP, and 4th SG: Putt. He also finished runner-up at the strongly correlated comp course El Cameleon Mayakoba in 2023. He just misses out having not finished better than 32nd in his last 5 starts here, one of the most correlated courses on the PGA Tour for prior course form.
Lucas Glover 66/1 was 2nd for driving accuracy last week and 1st for SG: APP despite losing -2.10 approach on the 18th hole in the final round. He was narrowly left out given questions whether the improved putter will remain in 2024, after finishing 58/59 putting last week and putting weighted a little more than usual in our Sony Open betting tips. JJ Spaun, also priced at 66/1, was left out based on his course form here. Outside a 12th in the 2023 Sony Open, he has 4 missed cuts and a 47th to miss our betting tips.
Alexander Bjork was the final exclusion, preferred to another DP World Tour player also priced at 100/1. His lack of prior starts in PGA Tour events was a factor in missing our Sony Open betting tips, along with the continued ability to put himself in contention but never actually close out the win.
Updated 9 Jan 7:00AM ET
Suggested Staking
Russell Henley
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Corey Conners – Sony Open Betting Tips Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds) Available at +3300 with 5 places 1/4 odds if you prefer
Brendon Todd
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Andrew Putnam
2pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Emiliano Grillo – Sony Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Bet365)
Ryo Hisatsune
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds) Available at +10000 with 5 places 1/4 odds if you prefer
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)
Zac Blair
0.5pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)
For the second year in a row, Russell Henley makes our Sony Open betting tips. We get him at the same price as last year 25/1. Although this is undoubtedly a stronger field than in 2023, Russell Henley is also massively improved over the last 12 months. In that time, Henley has jumped from 41st to 10th in the Data Golf world rankings. To find him here at the same odds is great value.
Henley has a fabulous record at Wai’alae Country Club, including the famous win on his PGA Tour debut back in 2013. His course form reads 1-51-17-MC-13-MC-66-MC-11-2-32. He has since completed the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and Sony Open double, winning at El Cameleon in 2023. He also holds a 6th, 9th, and most recently 19th in 2023 at Harbour Town, 16th at Colonial in 2023, and 13th at the RSM Classic in the fall where he has also finished 4th, 6th, and 10th previously.
His game is perfect built for this test. He is one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour, ranking 1st in this field for the last 12 months. He is 3rd from 100-150 yards for SG: APP and 7th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months. After a big 2023, I can easily forgive a fairly average performance at The Sentry last week where he has finished in the bottom half of the field in 4/5 appearances. I expect some sharp improvement, on a golf course which is infinitely more suitable for his game.
It was a typical Corey Conners performance at The Sentry. The ball-striking was once again back to it’s excellent best, finishing 9th for both driving accuracy and SG: APP. It was his short-game which held him back from finishing higher in a strong field, but finds himself back at a course where he has gained significantly putting in half of his starts and is at field average for SG: ATG. Those are big increases to his baseline statistics on other courses.
That plays out in his results in Wai’alae. He has a record here of 39-3-12-11-12. Of confidence is he arrives this time after breaking a 4 year drought of victories in 2023. Valero Texas Open host TPC San Antonio is far from the worst course comp, where SG: ATG is also highly correlated to success alongside SG: APP, driving accuracy, and putting.
Another Texas event and correlated here is Colonial, where his form reads 8-31-19-20 in 4 starts. He also holds a 17th most recently at Mayakoba, a 4th, 12th, 31st at Harbour Town, and three Top 25s at The RSM Classic where he has never missed the cut.
As always with Conners, what happens with the putter will determine his results this week. However, his T2G game will keep in contention and his prior record with short-game at Wai’alae sees him as a terrific bet at 25/1 or longer.
Brendon Todd makes our Sony Open betting tips this week, aiming to become the 7th player to complete the Mayakoba and Wai’alae double. He won at El Cameleon in 2020, where he has also finished 8th and 11th. Further adding to his course comp performances is Colonial, where he holds a 3rd, 5th, and 8th, and a 4th at both the RBC Heritage and RSM Classic.
At The Sentry last week, he was widely covered getting frustrated and accidentally breaking his driver which you can find here. Moments like that often get over-played, and many punters and DFS players will take him out of their pool this week as a result. I’d say the frustration comes more from the fact he is actually playing pretty well. He completed last week ranking 7th for driving accuracy and 13th for both SG: APP and ST: ATG. That came despite losing 5 strokes OTT in the final round with the driver out of play.
Todd closed off 2023 well, finishing 6th, 20th, and 28th during the fall events and finishing 2nd at the John Deere Classic and 7th at the Wyndham Championship. Both of the latter are golf courses where driving accuracy are rewarded. Approach shots there are also analogous to what is required this week. Over the last 12 months in this field, Todd is 4th for driving accuracy, 3rd for SG: ATG, and 19th for putting. Over 6 month, he is a whopping 11th for SG: Total and 18th for SG: APP.
Another who made these pages in the 2023 Sony Open betting tips, his price has drifted from 50s last year to 66s in 2023. That comes after he recorded his most top 5s in a season since 2019 and 3 more than the year prior. And he secured us a 4th place last year for a full place payout, to compliment a runner-up finish here in 2019.
Putnam has made big gains in approach since then. He goes from 29th for SG: APP when looking at the past 2 years to 3rd in this field over the last 6 months. Over the last 12 months, he is 4th in this field for SG: APP from 100-150 yards just behind Russell Henley. He also has a 3rd, 15th, and 20th around Colonial.
Part of the reason for the drift in odds comes off a 40th place finish at The Sentry last week. The course is not a great fit for his short-hitting. Deep-diving into his numbers shows little for concern. After showing some signs of rust in the first couple of rounds, he gained 3.68 on approach over the weekend. He also led the field in driving accuracy for the week.
Grillo is as far down as 80s on open in a surprise. The perennially excellent ball-striker really made big strides with his putter in 2023. That culminated in a 7th place at RBC Heritage (where he has prior runner-up) in a designated event and a win at Colonial, where he has also finished 3rd and 8th. That compliments his performance at Mayakoba, where he holds a 8th, 9th, 10th, and 15th from his 7 starts.
Again, I can forgive last week’s performance at a course, where he has only played once back in 2016 finishing 18th out of 31 starters. He did however finish the week 2nd in the field for driving accuracy. Over the last 12 months, he is 4th in this field for SG: APP from 150-200 yards.
Now ranked 35th in the official world golf rankings, he finds himself priced alongside the likes of Ryan Palmer and Alex Smalley. He is a class above those, and could go well this week at big odds.
It will be the first opportunity for many to take a look at some DP World Tour players this week. Ryo Hisatsune makes the Sony Open betting tips just ahead of Alexander Bjork. You can find both of them at 100/1. However, I prefer the 80/1 this week with the additional 8 places.
As mentioned, Bjork just missed out partly due his inability to get across the line. The other detrimental factor was his lack of PGA Tour starts. He has already seen Hisatsune a few time on the PGA Tour and he has already impressed. He finished 10th at the Barracuda Championship, on a course that usually favours bombers, and 6th at the ZOZO Championship. That came behind the likes of Morikawa and Min Woo Lee, and ahead of players such as Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, and Sahith Theegala.
The talented 21 year old is the same age as Tom Kim. He could be about to burst onto the scene in a similar way. He was a prolific performer on the Japan Tour, including 3 wins in 2021. Hisatsune achieved his first DP World Tour win at the Open de France. Le Golf National will host the 2024 Men’s Golf at the Olympics. It is a fiddly course with driving accuracy and elite approach play key. That is the same recipe we need this week.
Hisatsune finished 2023 with 6 consecutive finishes of 21st or better with three top 10s. More performances like that and he could soon become the next big thing from the Asian tours.
Finally, we wrap-up our Sony Open player profiles with another selection who made our betting tips in 2023. Opening at 300/1, he was cut to 190/1 by open. We can pick him up here at 200/1 after a much improved year.
The most notable result was a 2nd place finish behind Keegan Bradley at the Travelers Championship, a designated event. We had actually put him up the event prior at the RBC Candian Open at a whopping 1000/1. He unfortunately withdrew prior to tournament start with a minor injury, and then spiked a huge result when returning priced at 1500/1. His place money alone with 8 places at 1/5th odds was 300/1!
Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July 2022. He immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.
Prior to the injury, Blair had a 3rd and 6th around Wai’alae in his first two Sony Open starts. He finished last year 7th for SG: putting and 17th for SG: ATG, typically weaker aspects of his game. He also holds a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. Now healthy and off the back of a couple surprises in 2023, he is too long in the market at bigger odds than he started last year.
Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.
You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!
Let’s do the math. Everyone in our discord or who watches the show places $100 on Theegala and walk away with $6000 on the first round leader.
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