As is oft the case when we preview the Valero Texas Open, part of the mind is in Texas and the other in Georgia. We got that question right in 2022. We successfully tipped J.J. Spaun at TPC San Antonio with huge odds of 150/1.
Being the penultimate week before The Masters, this week provides a conundrum determining the motivation of the players. Who is here to play this week? Who is getting the final tune-ups and experiments in before heading to Augusta National? Who is hoping to find a spark of form?
Rory McIlroy, who heads betting markets, likely ticks the latter box. However, it perhaps speaks to the caliber of the player when we regard him as being out of form yet he has finished worse than 24th just once in the last 11 months. Quietly, I hope that Rory has a rather dreadful performance this week whilst finding something with his irons. The story of The Masters is currently about what Scottie Scheffler has been doing. The less eyes on Rory heading to Augusta, the better it seems for his chances of completing the career grand slam. It would be a moment few would begrudge him, and the majority would love to see.
In terms of last week, it was a story of near misses. At the Houston Open, Schmid missed a juicy +425 Top 20 bet by a single stroke. We cash a +188 ticket on him for finishing Top 40. On the DP World Tour, our favourite for the week Joost Luiten again showed his loving for the difficult golf course. He finished 11th, again just missing a place payout at +560. It was good news for our huge outsider Manu Gandas. The local player, selected at 400/1, cashed a massive Top 20 at +1100 and a Top 40 at +320. Like Luiten, he narrowly missed a place payout. That was paying a massive 80/1 just for the place.
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Aiding this week’s preview is that there is real heritage and history at the Valero Texas Open. The tournament is the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour. It has been held in some form for over a century. This, along with the timing before The Masters, goes someway to explaining the relatively strong field we see this week.
This means we have a wealth of data to play with. Firstly, of note is that this is a relatively stern test. For the last 8 years, it has ranked in the harder 25% of golf courses. The more difficult years came in higher winds, which we may experience this week again.
The course ranks as 1st where SG: ATG is a predictive factor. On first glance, this might seem surprising considering the greens are a relatively large 6,400 sq ft on average. However, it should be noted that the majority of green complexes are multi-tiered. This effectively reduces the target area to the level where the pin is placed. Bunker play is a good place to start, with the course often ranking in the op 10 for difficulty from the multiple bunkers guarding each hole.
Additionally, this correlates to the uptick in SG: APP performance. Winners in this tournament have typically ranked in the top 10 for the week on approach. Interestingly, we see a wide split in where the approach shots are hit from. We see a large uptick in approach shots from under 125 yards and from over 250 yards. The latter relates to the long par 5s. Two are over 600 yards, with a 3rd playing at 591 yards.
Finally, driving accuracy is more helpful than distance. The course has ranked 12th or more in difficulty finding fairways over the last 4 tournaments.
Given the large number of prior tournaments held at TPC San Antonio, it is noteworthy for our preview that prior success at the Valero Texas Open has been a stronger predictor of success than at other courses. Course specialists like Jordan Spieth and Charley Hoffman demonstrate this, finding success here even when in poor form.
With Spieth, it also pays to note a multitude of players with Texas links have done well here. Having a connection to the state is seen in winners Spieth, Landry, Bowditch, and Walker.
Perhaps the best correlation can be found at another desert course venue: The American Express. Andrew Landry held a win and 2nd at The American Express prior to his Texas Open victory. Other winners continue the story. Kevin Chappell has a 6th and an 8th there prior to his win. He also holds a 3rd and 4th at the Valero Texas Open for good measure. Brendan Steele had a 2nd and a 6th there, Zach Johnson a 3rd and 8th, and Hoffman a 2nd and a 9th.
Another Greg Norman design in El Cameleon is also useful. Charley Hoffman has won at both, whilst John Huh and Matt Kuchar provide further links between the two courses.
Further connections can be found to leaderboards at TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale. Again, this meets the sense check. Both provide desert golf courses with little rough if just missing the fairway, but potentially significant penalties if straying too wide.
It is a tricky week for weather at the Valero Texas Open and, unfortunately, some differing weather forecasts make this more difficult to preview.
Essentially, I use a number of different weather models to compile the most likely weather outcome. These are weighted accordingly depending on accuracy resolution of the model.
Currently, the best answer I have is that Thursday PM/Friday AM wave may get the best of it. Thursday PM now looks the calmest winds on several models. Friday sees a big increase in winds, so scoring on Thursday could be imperative. There is also a chance Friday PM presents higher winds, which would further aid the case.
I do think it is worth building a few weather specific lines for PGA DFS. I’d recommend with a split of 30% PM/AM 10% AM/PM and the remaining 60% being mixed. Those who get the weather right could possess a decent advantage this week.
I recommend joining WinDaily Sports using our current deal and checking the WinDaily Premium Discord. We will have the latest weather forecasts with our premium models right up to first tee-times.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valero Texas Open, you can preview these in this article here or in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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As we preview the Houston Open, it pays to reflect whether this is now confirmed as the year of the longshot. Peter Malnati’s emotional victory at the Valspar Championship was the 8th winner at triple figure odds in 2024. That is now a remarkable 75% of all PGA Tour tournaments.
With a very short-priced Scottie Scheffler again heading the market this week, that opens the door for some more potential value to find success this week. Can another outsider win in Houston?
It was a week of close calls for us. Particularly on the DP World Tour, where all our tips made the cut and 5/7 picks were ranked 13th or better entering the final round.
At the Valspar Championship, Christiaan Bezuidenhout cruelly missed a full place payout at +1250 by just a single stroke. With the weather and a difficult golf course, the Copperhead Course again proved to be a volatile event.
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Firstly, it pays to note the change in month for this tournament. It has actually been over 500 days since the PGA Tour visited Memorial Park Golf Course. That is a factor of the PGA Tour moving back to a calendar year schedule. Therefore, the Houston Open is elevated to a regular season event from it’s previous slot in the Fall season. As a result, we do see a stronger field than in prior renditions.
Additionally, this has seen changes to the course setup. The greens are now poa annua overseed with a Bermuda turf base. There has also been a reduction in rough, at a very benign 1.5 inches posing little penalty for straying off what are already rather wide fairways.
The course superintendent said the following about the changes: “The overseed now will provide a much tighter playing surface than the bermudagrass did in 2022. This will highlight the penal green surrounds, while shorter rough gives opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green.”
What remains true is that this is a very long golf course. It measures 7,412 yards and is a par 70. That consists of an unusual 5 par 3s, which average some of the shortest on Tour. Therefore, much of the distance resides in the par 4 and 5s. There are 5 par 4s that play over 490 yards. The par 5s rank in the top 5 of regular PGA Tour stops for distance.
Although lies surrounding green may be tighter, the green complexes are still a large 7,000 sq ft on average. This really is a home for the power hitters, and driving distance should be key this week.
Given the change to season and the relatively small sample size of tournaments here, course history is a nice to have but certainly not a prerequisite for my Houston Open preview. It remains to be seen how the course will play exactly. Further, those who have previously found success on the greens may struggle with new breaks and speed on the poa overseeded putting surfaces.
I suspect the course will now play a bit like Quail Hollow. It is another tree-lined, traditional style, and long golf course. The course shares similar metrics in the length of par 4/5 yardages and has poa overseeded greens with a bermudagrass base.
Likewise, Mexico Open host Vidanta Vallarta holds similar long par 4/5s. It also correlates with a low penalty for finding fairway rough. Tony Finau links the two courses nicely, having won on both in 2023. Jaegar has finished 35th and 9th in his two starts at Memorial Park and finishes of 15-18-3 at Vidanta Vallarta.
No other sport is more subject to the elements than golf. We like to aggresively target any weather edge we identify. The same is true in our preview of the Houston Open this week. Last week at the Valspar Championship, we identified such a weather edge, which proved pivotal especially in PGA DFS.
The weather again presents an opportunity this week. Thursday looks to provide calm conditions all day irrespective of what tee-time golfers have. It should be the key scoring round this week, on what can be a tough golf course.
However, Friday afternoon will see the winds arrive. This should start in earnest from midday, with afternoon tee-times experience winds gusting above 20mph. The winds should then remain for the rest of the tournament based on current forecasting.
As such, I like those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The earlier the golfers get out on the course Friday, the better.
I recommend joining WinDaily Sports using our current deal and checking the WinDaily Premium Discord. We will have the latest weather forecasts with our premium models right up to first tee-times.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Houston Open, you can preview these in this article live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Houston Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
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