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PGA DFS

Insight Sheet: 2021 Genesis Invitational

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Genesis Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

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Players priced $10,000 and above

Jon Rahm $10,400 (Model #3, Projected Ownership 19%)
Rory McIlroy $10,500 (M#4, PO 15%)
Justin Thomas $10,700 (M#7, PO 15%)

Players priced $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,900 (M#5, PO 19%)
Patrick Cantlay $9,600 (M#10, PO 20%)
Tony Finau $9,300 (M311, PO 19%)
Collin Morikawa $9,500 (M37, PO 14%)

Players priced $8,900 and $8,000

Joaquin Niemann $8,800 (M#6, PO 17%)
Will Zalatoris $8,300 (M#8, PO 11%)
Max Homa $8,200 (M#33, PO 14%)

Players priced $7,900 and $7,500

Cameron Davis $7,500 (M#12, PO 11%)
Cameron Tringale $7,600 (M#21, PO 15%)
Si Woo Kim $7,700 (M#26, PO 6%)
Abraham Ancer $7,900 (M#35, PO 7%)
Russell Henley $7,800 (M#39, PO 9%)

Players priced $7,400 and below

Sam Burns $7,400 (M#16, PO 8%)
Luke List $7,300 (M#17, PO 8%)
Wyndham Clark $7,100 (M#20, PO 5%)
Henrik Norlander $7,400 (M#23, PO 5%)
Kevin Streelman $7,400 (M#35, PO 4%)
Wesley Bryan $6,100 (M#58, PO 1%)

Strategy for the 2021 Genesis Invitational

With this event being an invitational, the field is compressed down to 120 golfers with the typical top 65 and ties making it to the weekend. The tournament is stacked with top end talent which is pushing the price down on everyone else, in some places down $1,700. I think one of the top dogs take it down so I would not get cute and try and avoid the top tier guys. Get one and possibly two if you can afford it and cram in a bunch of value in the 7K range.

Key Stats

Driving Distance
Ball Striking w/ emphasis on OTT
DraftKing Scoring
Bogey Avoidance

Cash Game Core (No one over $10,000)

Patrick Cantlay $9,600
Joaquin Niemann $8,800
Cameron Davis $7,500

This core will leave you with $8,000 on average to fill out your roster for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. You could even fill in a $9,500 priced golfer and still have $7,300 on average to complete the rest of your build. Remember for cash games you just need to cash, winning the whole thing isn’t necessary. Raise the floor of your team by trying to stay out of the low 7K/6K range.

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP

10K – Jon Rahm & Justin Thomas. Would run a 2:1 in a 3 Max with these two. Rahm is my favorite 10K player overall.
9K – Xander Schauffele
8K – Will Zalatoris
7K – Cameron Tringale

20 Max GPP

10K – Rory McIlroy
9K – Tony Finau
8K – Max Homa
7K – Sam Burns & Luke List

150 Max GPP

9K – Collin Morikawa
7K – Si Woo Kim, Abraham Ancer, Russell Henley, Wyndham Clark, Henrik Norlander & Kevin Streelman
6K – Wesley Bryan (Huge Punt)

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2021 Genesis Invitational, I would try and create a higher priced block of golfer 2/3 in the $8,500 and up range and then build off of that.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight – 2021 Genesis Invitational

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Rory McIlroy and I’m fading Dustin Johnson so you can grab the MORE Birdie or Better for McIlroy and the LESS Birdie or Better for Dustin Johnson and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

The Genesis Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

The Genesis Final Ownership Projections

Greetings from the frozen tundra known as Texas. We have been without power since Tuesday morning, we packed up and moved to a 550+ per night hotel, (normally 209) to get internet, an 11-mile trip that took close to two hours,(Disneyland has nothing on a blacktop road that’s solid ice) and a room that was warmer than 52 degrees. With a secure network, we are now able to bring you The Genesis Final Ownership Projections.

Dustin Johnson leads the field in ownership, and odds to win. He is presently at 23.6%++, and is followed by closer than it seems Patrick Cantlay and Xander Shauffele, who are both sitting at 21% ownership. Victor Hovland is next at 18.7%, Jon Rahm closely behind him at 18.3%, Bryson DeChambeau comes in at 17.5%, Tony Finau is next at 16.7%, Carlos Ortiz is 16%, Justin Thomas is 15.5%, Joaquin Niemann is at 14.8%, Adam Scott and Rory McILroy are knotted at 13.7%, a small drop to Cameron Tringale at 12.8%, Cameron Davis is 12.7%, Sam Burns is 12.4%, and Max Homa is 12.1%. Scottie Scheffler rolls in at 11.7%, Sergio Garcia is 11.5%, Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s vote for Time magazine person of the century, Collin Morikawa is 10.5%,(10% of that is all Patrick Scott’s lineups).

Golfers Under 10% Ownership:

Hedeki Matsuyama starts us out in the under 10 category at 9.6%, followed by podcast darling Corey Conners at 9.4%, Brooks Koepka and Matthew Wolff are tied at 8.9%, Bubba, a multiple winner in the past, is at 8.7%, Abraham Ancer is 8.1%, Will Zalatoris is 8%, Jordan Spieth is 7.8%, Russel Henley is 7.6%, Matthew Fitzpatrick is 7.4%, the word is he will be heavily owned in higher dollar SE events, Marc Leishman is 7.2%, Matthew NeSmith is 7%, Lanto Griffin is 6.4%, Si Woo Kim is 6.3%, Henrik Norlander is 6.2%, Doug Ghim is 6.1%, Brendan Todd is 6%, Maverick McNealy is 5.9%, Luke List is 5.7%, Kevin Streelman is 5.5%, Kevin Na is 5.3%, Harold Varner lll and Charlie Hoffman are both at 5.2%, Cameron Smith is last but not least at 5.1%.

Golfers Under 5% Ownership

Francesco Molinari starts off here at 4.7%, J.T. Poston and Wyndham Clark are 4.6%, Russel Knox and Talor Gooch are 4.3%, Matt Jones is 4.2%, Brendan Steele is 4%, Gary Woodland is 3.7%, Jason Kokrak is 3.6%, Peter Malnati is 3.5%, Brian Harman is 3.4%, Cameron Champ and Vaughn Taylor are 3.3%, Rickie Fowler is 3.2%, Charles Howell lll is 3.15%, James Hahn is 3.1%, Emiliano Grillo, Jim Furyk and Mackenzie Hughes are 3%, Adam Hadwin is 2.9%, JB Holmes, Michael Thompson and KH Lee are 2.8%, Chez Reavie and Doc Redman are 2.7%, Sebastian Munoz and Matt Kuchar are 2.5%, Charl Schwartzel is 2.4%, Keegan Bradley is 2.2%, Stewart Cink and Adam Long are 2.1%. Richy Werenski, Harry Higgs,Patrick Rodgers and Nate Lashley are 2% owned.

Golfers Under 2% Ownership:

Brian Stuard and Tom Hoge are 1.9% owned, Joel Dahmen and Mark Hubbard are 1.8%, Sepp Straka is 1.7%, Sung Kang, Bo Hoag, Scott Piercy and Nick Taylor are 1.5%, Martin Laird is 1.4%, Pat Perez and Denny McCarthy are 1.2%, Lucas Glover is 1.1%, Alex Noren is 1%. All other golfers at the time of this report are under 1% owned.

The Genesis Final Ownership Projections Picks:

Top Tier: D.J., by a mile.
Mid Tier: Xander, Cantlay
Lower Tier: Davis, Burns, Ortiz
Out in Left Play: Talor Gooch
Frisky Risky Biscuit: Cameron Champ*. * RISKY PLAY

Golf Enthusiast, we talk about how we, as a group, try to get you the quality intel you need to succeed and cash in your entries. From all the articles from Sia, Patrick, Antonio, Isaiah, Charlemagne, and myself, and along with Sia’s incredible amazing Secret Weapon, coming tonight in Discord, we strive to get you that information in a timely manner. It’s one reason I’m sitting in a hotel that costs 3 times its normal rate due to weather, it does allow me to have a secure network to bring this report to you. As soon as I finish this report I will review Michael, Sia, and Joel’s Livestream, it’s that good, and it’s on every Tuesday night at 8 EST, which means all you need is power and an internet connection to get some of the best golf analysis on the planet.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money on Sunday afternoon.

SicilyKid/ Steven

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Genesis Invitational Breakdown

Austin Harmon 4 years ago

written by Austin Harmon

The Genesis Invitational Breakdown

Sia, Joel, and Michael are here to help you with their The Genesis Invitational Breakdown! This field is much bigger and fuller than the field last week, especially with Dustin Johnson sticking around.

Last weeks winner, Daniel Berger, decided to keep partying and decided to drop out of the tournament. Can’t really blame the guy!

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4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well. You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual. This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success. More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world. His ball striking and short game are excellent. His price point isn’t cost prohibitive. Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one. If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category. Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2^nd, 2^nd and 5^th over his last three tournaments). Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3^rd, 2^nd and 13^th over his last three. He has a great track record as you might expect.

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page. Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7^th place finish last week at the AT&T. Add to that a 5^th place finish last year and 37^th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee. He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut. But he finished 14^th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that. Plenty of upside at this price.

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13^th, 14^th and 28^th place finish in his last three efforts here. I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10^th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10^th place finish). With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories.

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately. He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments. Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly). KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2^nd place finish at the Waste Management. Further, he finished 13^th and 25^th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore. He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5). He also finished 7^th here in 2019.

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25. Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks. Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter. Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on. See you tonight.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

AT&T Pebble Beach Final Ownership Projections

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Before we get to our AT&T Pebble Beach Final Ownership Projections… Last week could be summed up in one word. Surprises. Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, DJ, and the 43 year old finder of the fountain of youth, Tom Brady. Koepka had missed 3 cuts in a row, badly, he had fired his swing coach, and mentioned in a post tourney interview that he had personally visited deep dark places in his mind, (please do not elaborate Brooks). He then went out and holed out 17 for an eagle, while everyone else was busy trying to give the tourney away.

Jordan Spieth still had problems with his driver, but then on Saturday he shot a 61 with scrambling and holing putts from everywhere on the green. Tom Brady threw three touchdown passes and was named MVP, again, for dismantling the KC defense. The only touchdown the Chiefs had was when their plane landed safely. It was a week full of surprises. I’ll offer this exercise to allow you to feel like the men above do. Walk up to your wife or significant other, ask them what the difference is between Iron Man and Iron Woman, when they ask what is the difference, simply say, “the first is a super hero, the second is a simple command.” You will be “surprised” at their reaction. So you won’t be surprised on who the chalky golfers are, let’s get to it and reveal the AT&T Pebble Beach Final Ownership Projections.

Leading by a significant margin this week is Patrick Cantlay at 29%+, since DJ withdrew there has been a steady move to Cantlay, possibly due to the narrative that he is from Long Beach, and Pebble Beach is one of his favorites. Daniel Berger is 2nd at 24.9%, almost 5% less than Cantlay. Will Zalatoris is next at 20.3%, Jason Day is 18.6%, I was on him, I’ll now take an underweight position due to ownership.

Cameron Davis follows him at 17.3%, Francesco Molinari is 17.9%, Sam Burns is 16.8%, he is a popular play who I will not be on this week. Kevin Streelman is 16%, I have him, a solid play for now, much less if he hits 19-20% by lock. Henrik Norlander is 14.9%, yes for me, Peter Malnati is 14.5%, his hot streak has a lot to do with putting, which means a sprinkle of shares for me. Max Homa is 14%, one of Joel’s favorites, I’m on him too. Cameron Tringale, Jordan Spieth, and Paul Casey are tied at 13.2%, I like Tringale and Casey. Matt Jones and Joel Dahmen are knotted up at 13%, Brian Harman is 12.9%, Harold Varner lll is 12.5%, Michael Thompson is 12.1%, Si Woo Kim is 11.4%, Doug Ghim is 11.2%, I’ll have shares of him, Matthew NeSmith is 10.9%.

Golfers Under 10% Ownership:

Kyle Stanley is 9.9%, Alex Noren and Patton Kizzire are 9.4%, Scott Stallings and James Hahn are 9%, Chris Kirk, Brendan Steele and Stewart Cink are all square at 8.7%, Rory Sabbatini, (the Rory that plays decent golf) is 8.4%, Scott Piercy and Bo Hoag are together at 7.9%, Mark Hubbard and Andrew Putnam are both 6.9%, I will own shares of Putnam. Harry (“I’m just big boned” )Higgs, Charley Hoffman and Nick Taylor, (last years winner) are tied at 6.2%, Phil Mickelson is 5.9%, Rickie Fowler is 5.8%, Maverick McNealy and Branden Grace are the same, 5.5%, Jim Furyk, Adam Long, and Russell Knox are the same at 5.4%.

Golfers Under 5% Ownership:

Chez Reavie is 4.2% owned. Adam Schenk, who is a good value, (I’ll have him) is at 3.9%, Brandt Snedeker is 3.8%, Patrick Rodgers and Rafa Cabrera Bello are tied at 3.7%, Pat Perez and Tom Hoge are 3% each, Brandon Hagy is 2.9%, Joseph Bramlett, Ryan Moore, and Kramer Hickok are tied together at 2.7%, Nate Lashley is 2.4%, Vaughn Taylor and Denny McCarthy are 2.3%, Davis Riley, Austin Cook, and Jhonattan Vegas are 2.2%.

Golfers Under 2% Ownership:

Brian Gay is 1.9%, Rob Oppenheim and Kevin Chappell are 1.8%, Troy Merritt, Bronson Burgoon, and Chesson Hadley are tied at 1.6%, Chase Seiffert is 1.5%, Ryan Armour and JB Holmes are 1.4%, Ben Martin and CT Pan are 1.3%. Ted Potter Jr. is 1.1% owned. All other golfers at the time of this report are under 1% ownership including Josh Teater at .94%, and Tom Lewis at .93% owned.

AT&T Pebble Beach Final Ownership Projections Picks:

Top Tier: Cantlay
Mid Tier: Day, Zalatoris
Value Tier: Tringale, Mickelson
Low Tier: Andrew Putnam

Out in left field Play: Adam Schenk
Frisky risky biscuit play: Kelly Kraft*.
* Very Risky Play

There are quite a few golfers tied in ownership % at the mid range and bargain range, more than previous tourneys, the SIP program shows us that players are trying to land two top tier players and due to their lack of options, are picking at random for their remaining choices. All are desperately trying to stay out of the 6 K salary range, which is the weakest field this year. Last week, my out in left play, Lucas Glover, created value by being low priced and low owned, making the cut, and scoring enough points to bring the value.

Meanwhile, Sia’s Secret Weapon play, James Hahn, almost won the tourney, he led at the turn, and created humongous value. Sia’s record is now 28-3, with several of his picks contending late on Sunday here recently. I have used superlative descriptions of Sia’s picks, they are not just out of this world, they are out in deep space. He continues to bring us a golfer who gives us an opportunity to make money, in some cases, a lot of money.

Patrick “Sharps“ Scott is back this week and will be bringing expert picks and intel that is necessary to good team building. He is well known for his adoration of Collin Morikawa, so he shows up at the same time Morikawa disappears, coincidence? I think not, he is allegedly teaching his kids new meanings to words, such as restraining order, (a command from mom because the pasta looks watery), and also tells them his “old acquaintances“ have initials on their uniform that stand for FaceBook International. Home schooling is working well at the Scott residence.

I want to thank all of you for reviewing this article, we appreciate it. I will be in Discord after the report is published to help with questions on ownership, roster building and players and their metrics. Please take time to review the articles by Sia, Antonio, Patrick, Joel and myself, and don’t forget the live stream for Win Daily Sports golf, on Tuesday evenings at 830 PM EST, starring Michael Rasile as the tough and funny moderator, Sia, the mind behind the secret weapon, and Joel, who has hired an accountant to stand in his closet and count money from golf winnings.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money.

Sicilykid/ Steven

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

AT&T Pebble Beach NoAm Breakdown

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

AT&T Pebble Beach NoAm Breakdown

Sia, Joel, and Michael are here to help you with their AT&T Pebble Beach NoAm Breakdown! This event normally is played over 3 courses, but since COVID there are no amateurs at the event now, so it’s a NoAm.

Sia and Joel have your breakdown on who they’re looking at in each tier. With Dustin Johnson now out, it opens up a lot of possibilities on both the DFS and Sports Betting side of things.

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4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach). These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s. With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play. My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with. Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex. Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn. I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced. He is also playing in his home state which should help.

Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8^th at The AmEx. Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up. That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.

Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8^th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari. He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year. I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.

Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular. In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2^nd, 7^th, 6^th, 14^th and 17^th. Add to that his recent form has been very good.

Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer. In his last three tournaments he has finished 22^nd, 2^nd and 12^th and he’s been great OTT and on APP. The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game. He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else. Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true. Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.

Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5^th here last year. His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.

Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking. He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history. Plenty of upside here.

Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13^th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together. If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some.

Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid. He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3^rd, 7^th and 14^th place finish.

Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups. Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas. His course history includes a 10^th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that. A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week. I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night. You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.

Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Waste Management Open Final Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Waste Management Open Final Projections

Before we get to the Waste Management Open Final Projections… Last week Michael Jordan was being interviewed, the host asked him if his Chicago Bulls could beat the reigning two time juggernaut Los Angeles Lakers in a game, Michael paused for a moment and said, “yes……we can.” The host asked, by how many points? Michael replied, ”2 or 3.” The host queried, “why such a low spread ” Michael said, “hell man, we are all over 60 years old now.” It’s all about perceptions.

Last week our projections were off by a little more than 5% for the first time, our back testing and SIP program showed us why. There was the factor of the two courses and the knowledge that one was tougher than the other, and on Thursday there were supposed to be high winds and weather, this drove a majority of the team building process on Wednesday afternoon, on Thursday morning before lock, reports of sunny skies, no wind and calmer conditions sent a wave of editing teams in the opposite direction.

I mention this to let you all know we spent 36 hours backtesting projection data to find out why, six groggy, disgruntled and sleep deprived people had to find out, because ultimately, you as Win Daily Sports subscribers depend on the projections to make your lineups and roster your teams to make money, hopefully a lot of money. It matters to us. A lot. I remember years ago when I got my first 10,000.00 check from Draftkings, it was blue with black ink, with zeros on it, and the most important thing is it cleared the bank, and every one of them since then has. Joel can confirm this, he won 70,000 last weekend on Showdown, then he put out a video on HOW to do it. We all get excited when you win, it allows us to revisit our first and all our big victories, and that’s why we are here, doing what we do. Let’s get down to the Waste Management Phoenix Open Final Projections.

Leading the ownership % pack this week is lone wolf Jon Rahm, at 26.2%, he is 43% to make the optimal lineup, so he is still holding value…..for now. Next is Daniel Berger at 24%, his ownership has shot up since early am today, he is followed by Justin Thomas at 22%, Justin has the lowest shots gained % of all the 10 K golfers, it’s dangerous to fade him but the numbers say different. We have a three way tie that includes Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele and Rory McILroy, they are all at 18.8%.

We dip down a smidge to Sungjae IM at 16.6%, I do like his approach game, Harris English, who forgot last week he was actually playing in a tourney, follows at 15.7%. Corey Conners is 15%, yes, yes, and yes. B. An is 14.9%, I put him in the cheat sheet earlier when he was 9.9%, presently he’s almost 15%, that is a pure pivot for me now. Will Zalatoris who keeps proving how good he is, even on short metrics history is 13.9%, yes please, Bubba Watson is 13.6%, his course history is good, but jeez almighty, watching him hit that sharp curving drive is nerve racking at best, Sam Burns is 13.2%, and a solid value, Max Homa is 12.3% and a darling of the live stream jocks, next is Hideki Matsuyama at 12.3%, he does rate as a solid, but average play, Joel’s secret crush Henrik Norlander is 11%, surprise ! Brendan Steele is 10.8%…why? Russel Henley is 10.5%, he misses the cut every other year here, he is supposed to make this one, I’ll take a chance just based on his current metrics, GPP only, no cash, SE or 3 Max.

Golfers Under 10% Projected Ownership:

Ryan Palmer is 9.7%, at 9200 salary, wow, he is a bit overpriced but is a safe play, Si Woo Kim is 9.6%, Rickie Fowler, who was cussed out by our own Michael Rasile when he was at this tournament (and admonished because it was NOT the 16th hole) is 9.4%. Michael said it was due to his exuberant youth, nahh, not buying it, I’m thinking lots and lots of adult beverages. Scottie Scheffler is 8.4%, at his %, he actually rates as a decent GPP play, Carlos Ortiz is 8.3% and I’m on him this week, Billie Horschel is 8.2%, Luke List is 7.9%, Gary Woodland is 7.6% and a hard choice, low owned, still coming into form, not there yet for me. Brian Harman is tied with Brooks Koepka at 7.5%, it’s hard to fathom that the only golfer I’d consider there is Harman. Ryan Moore is 7.4%, yes, yes and yes. Chris Kirk is 7.3%, he is one of Sia’s favorites, for those of you that are hearing impaired, HE IS ONE OF SIA’S FAVORITES, Cameron Champ is 7.2% and a pivot off of B. An, Matt Jones, Jason Day and John Huh are 6.9%, Patton Kizzire and Louis Oosthuizen are 6.2%, Martin Laird is 6%, I’m on him, Sebastian Munoz is 5.7% owned, oh, hell yes, way to much upside for price and ownership, also a tad risky this week but worth it, Doc Redman is 5.4%, Matt Kuchar is 5%, he has great tourney history, just not so great recent history.

Golfers Under 5% Projected Ownership:

Talor Gooch, or “Goochie” is 4.9% owned, Rory Sabbatini and Dylan Frittelli are 4.8% owned, they will pair up with Francesco Molinari later Thurs as the Chef Boyardee trio. Kevin Streelman is 4.8% and a Vegas darling, Brendan Todd is 4.7%, Emiliano Grillo and Sepp Straka are 4.5% owned, Adam Long and Lucas Glover are 4.4% owned, Glover is a sneaky play, Zach Johnson is 4.2%, Russel Knox and get this, Matt Wolff, yes that Matt, are 4.1% owned, how quickly they fall, Kyle Stanley is 4.0%, Cameron Tringale, Wyndham Clark and Adam Hadwin are 3.8% owned. Michael Thompson and Joel Dahmen are 3.6% owned, Bo Hoag and Keith Mitchell are 3.3%, Harry Higgs, all of Harry Higgs, is 3.2%. Harold Varner lll and Charley Hoffman are 3% owned, Aaron Wise and Stewart Cink are 2.8% owned, Nick Taylor is 2.6%, Charl Schwartzel and Keegan Bradley are 2.5%, Chez Reavie and Sam Ryder are 2.4%, and sadly, just because the live stream team of Michael, Sia and Joel made jokes about him, poor, poor little Jordan Spieth is only 2.2% owned, makes you kinda want to roster him, sniff, no love, poor guy……no, stop, don’t do it, it’s a joke, just like his game right now. I do hope he comes back though, honestly do, he’s a hellova golfer that is way inside his head too much right now, when you’re asking blades of grass about how your last swing was…….well, you know. Matthew NeSmith is also 2.2%, along with J.T. Poston.

Gophers under 2% Projected Ownership:

There are no Gophers in the PGA, all the great golfers from Oklahoma State ate them. Tom Hoge, Richie Werenski, J.B, Holmes, Pat Perez and Will Gordon are all 1.6% owned, Tom Lewis and Mark Hubbard are 1.5%, Denny McCarthy and Eric Vann Rooyen are 1.4%, Patrick Rodgers, Austin Cook, and Davis Riley, a newcomer from the Korn Ferry are 1.3% owned, Adam Schenk is 1.2% owned, Brian Stuard is 1.1% owned. All other golfers set to tee off Thursday morning are under 1% ownership at the time of this report, including Robbie Shelton and Vaughn Taylor at .98% owned.

Waste Management Open Final Projections Picks:

Top Tier: Jon Rahm and Will Zalatoris ( Scheffler GPP ONLY )
Mid Tier: Corey Conners and Sam Burns
Low Tier: Ryan Moore
Out in Left: Lucas Glover is my out in left play this week.

I mentioned Joel’s video in the paragraph above on how he won 70,000. There may be some truth to the rumor that Martin Scorsese, the famous director, saw the clip and is considering Joel for the lead in his new motion picture, The Golffather, coming soon to a theatre near you.

I want to thank all of you who took time to review this article, we do appreciate it, when you can, please review Sia’s initial article on Tuesday’s, followed by The Win Daily Sports live stream with Michael Rasile, Sia and Joel on Tuesday evenings at 800 EST. Antonio will have his picks out in his article just released, and after Patrick “ Sharps“ Scott makes bail over that unfortunate Morikawa incident, he’ll be writing very soon. I want to welcome Charlemagne to our group as well, very exciting projects to look forward to.

Speaking of looking forward to something, that’s right boys and girls!! It’s almost time !! Can I dare say it? May I dare say it? IT’S SUPER SIA and HIS SECRET WEAPON!!! Dun Dun Dun, If you had a tout that gave you the picks from the sorriest teams, that nobody wanted, and those picks hit at 90% winners, (and he was handsome to boot,) why, you’d adopt him ! You don’t have too, he’s right here on Discord! The pick will be too, very very soon…..

I will also be in Discord after this article is published to help with roster construction, ownership %, player metrics, and any questions you may have along with other writers as well, thanks again.

As always, I hope to be with you, on Sunday afternoon, in the money.

Sicily Kid/ Steven

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 132 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
The courses: TPC Scottsdale
- Par 71 – 7,261 yards
- Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
- Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
- Fast Bermuda greens
6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Waste Management Phoenix Open Breakdown

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Waste Management Phoenix Open Breakdown

Sia, Joel, and Michael are here for the Waste Management Phoenix Open Breakdown for DFS and Betting plays! Michael has a fun story about his time out at the WM Open from a few years ago too! We go through each range in DFS to give our top plays and who we like, and who we don’t. We then break down the betting odds and give some long shots to win the tournament outright as well as some first round leader plays. FYI, Sia is super hot so keep tailing him!

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https://youtu.be/8GdCvF2gTis

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PGA DFS

Players priced $10,000 and above

Players priced $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced $7,900 and $7,500

Players priced $7,400 and below

Strategy for the 2021 Genesis Invitational

Cash Game Core (No one over $10,000)

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP

20 Max GPP

150 Max GPP

Monkey Knife Fight – 2021 Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Final Ownership Projections

Golfers Under 10% Ownership:

Golfers Under 5% Ownership

Golfers Under 2% Ownership:

The Genesis Final Ownership Projections Picks:

The Genesis Invitational Breakdown

Golfers Under 10% Ownership:

Golfers Under 5% Ownership:

Golfers Under 2% Ownership:

AT&T Pebble Beach Final Ownership Projections Picks:

AT&T Pebble Beach NoAm Breakdown

Waste Management Open Final Projections

Golfers Under 10% Projected Ownership:

Golfers Under 5% Projected Ownership:

Gophers under 2% Projected Ownership:

Waste Management Open Final Projections Picks:

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Waste Management Phoenix Open Breakdown

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