PGA DFS

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

PGA West Stadium Course

7,200 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Overseeded Poa

I want to make sure I don’t overcomplicate this process because that might do more harm than good. There will be a ton of strange quirks that we aren’t used to seeing during most stops, which can add some hesitation on the correct way to handle everything in front of us. For me, I am going to try and make as many connections between the three setups this week as I can because that is the only way in my mind to play a tournament that has a 54-hole cut and rotational nature.

The first thing that stuck out to me was that it appears as if the Bermuda grass is dormant at all tracks. If that is the case, it means we will get a Poa overseeded texture. I didn’t use that in my calculations because all the venues are easy, but let’s instead talk about what numbers I did find pertinent to my research process. All three courses are under 7,200 yards. That places them inside the 15 shortest on tour. We also see all three rank inside the bottom-15 in difficulty — that is just another way of saying they are straightforward. There is only so much we can do from a statistical perspective to get unique, but here is how I ended up weighing my model.

• Total Driving (25%) – We have seen accuracy guys like Ancer find success here in the past, which is why it is being added to the equation, but I still believe distance over accuracy is the way to go because it does take away so many of the potential problems. That ended up being a 65/35 split to get total driving. 
• GIR Percentage Out Of Fairway Bunkers(10%) – If golfers do miss the fairways, it likely will leave them in these extensive fairway bunkers.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) -Golfers will get 16 chances to score on those holes across the three stops, and it has been the most indicative category to finding success of anything we get this week. 
• Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
• Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I condensed it to par-three average and bogey avoidance. You could get deeper with it and include proximity ranges, but I bypassed both. Maybe that is the incorrect mindset, but when you get courses as easy as these three, some of that almost burdens a model when you say a poor putter or bad proximity player can’t find a recipe for success. Those two stats aren’t exactly the most predictive in many ways.
• Strokes Gained Total On Easy Courses Under 7,200 (25%) – Categories like this combine all three tracks and give us an easily identified blueprint.
• Strokes Gained Total On Pete Dye (10%) – That only applies to the Stadium Course, but once again, that is where 50% of the rounds will take place.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on our Win Daily Show on Tuesday night, “You could make Jon Rahm $12,500, and it would be acceptable.” Let’s see where the ownership goes, but there is no reason he should be this close in price to the likes of Scottie Scheffler or as close in popularity as he is to Patrick Cantlay. Rahm is the best player in every field but is especially strong in a tournament that drops off like the American Express.

Tony Finau ($10.200) – Is the price tag a little high? Sure. But it has created quite the leverage spot for Tony Finau, who might end up being the lowest owned player above $9,000 this week. Finau has posted two top-14s in his stops to the event since 2020.

Other Consideration – Scottie Scheffler does grade third in my model. I have some concerns, but this is the kind of course we would anticipate him finding success.

$9,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($9,700) – The price and ownership might be problematic to some, but I wouldn’t let it affect my decision-making. Gooch is priced where he should be for the week, and I think we need to start accepting that this could be who he is as a player moving forward.

Other Targets: Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris (GPPs) – Sungjae Im is in play for all game types

$8,000 Range

Justin Rose ($8,600) – Justin Rose ranks inside the top-10 on easy courses and also has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. I have an outright ticket on him at 55/1.

Si Woo Kim ($8,300) – Pete Dye specialist? Check. Good on short courses? Check. I haven’t given up hope that Si Woo Kim turns everything around very shortly.

Carlos Ortiz ($8,200) – @StixPicks has ‘Hammer Kid’ locked Carlos Ortiz to come top-40. I have never seen him lose on a selection like that, which is good enough for me to roll with Ortiz in all game types this week.

Other Thoughts: Rickie Fowler ($8,500), Alex Noren ($8,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,100) are all in play for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Jason Day ($7,300) – Perhaps my favorite play above $7,000 on DraftKings this week is Jason Day. The problem with me saying this is that I have cried wolf for three straight years that every tournament was the Day show, even when he wasn’t in the field. Hence, why it might lose some of its luster after a while, but this is legitimately one of the first times that it isn’t just an act on my part. It kind of goes with what I have been saying about the model mimicking DraftKings pricing to a T, and then you get this massive deviation here with Day, who ranks 9th for me on my model. The Aussie is the number one golfer on short courses since 2018 – a time frame that does include the bad version of himself. I am legitimately encouraged by his potential this time around.

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,700), Taylor Moore ($7,300)

$6,000 Range

J.T. Poston ($6,400) – Three top-37s to go along with two missed cuts since 2017. Part of the reason for his success is the par-five scoring. He ranks inside the top-30 in this field

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Davis RIley $6,800, Dylan Frittelli $6,800

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

When we look at Waialae Country Club, the property was designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor but did undergo an enhancement by Tom Doak in 2016. The purpose of the improvement was to try and bring back the old-school feel of the property, and I think Doak did that job perfectly. The venue is straightforward in its flat, boring setup, but there are doglegs where golfers will need to work the ball in both directions.

There are 12 par-fours in general. Ten of those stretch between 400-500 yards. The condensed nature from those holes produces 12.8% more second shots from 125-200 yards than average. I noticed a heavy correlation between the PGA Tour’s definition of ball striking and positive results. That combination looks at a mixture of accuracy and distance and then blends in GIR % to derive a total. Most of it is cumulative in how their website looks into the data, but I always make mine slightly more weighted into particular areas that I find relevant over the PGA’s basic construction.

Before we get into the statistical breakdown that I used, the last two things worth noting would be that the wind is the one real defense of the property. We have seen a three-shot difference in production when gusts pick up, and the second area that I found interesting is putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than a typical stop.

• Ball-Striking (25%) – I took an even split of distance and accuracy. I realize accuracy is more pertinent to finding success at Waialae, but golfers can easily club down off the tee. That is what Justin Thomas and Patton Kizzire did during the years they won the title, and it was another scenario where I noticed pushing numbers too far towards accuracy seemed to do a disservice to the model. Maybe you could look at a stat like fairways gained and increase the weight that way, but I still don’t love it because there are so many courses some of your bombers nosedive their totals throughout the year. I then took the average of that total driving number and weighed it in with GIR percentage in a 65/35 split towards GIR.
• Pertinent Proximity Ranges (10%) – Sixty-seven percent of irons come between 125-200 yards. I am marginally lower on approach play this week than most in the industry, but there are roundabout ways to get unique. I think GIR % is one. Breaking it down into this specific distance is another. And the reason we receive 67% of irons from this relatively basic zone is because of what I mentioned earlier of there being 10 par-fours between 400-500 yards. There are a lot of landing areas that will be similar for all players in the field
• Weighted Par-Four (17.5%) – It is a pretty basic split there of 34% overall par-four average and then 33% each on 400-450 and 450-500. 
• Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
• Mixture of Strokes Gained Total on Bermuda + Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda (20%) – That is my way of looking into Bermuda as a whole and gradually inserting putting into the mix. Everyone knows that I don’t love putting numbers, but we can’t ignore it here. Putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than an average stop. Bermuda putting is one of the ways to make it more relevant to Waialae. 
• Birdie or Better Percentage (10%) – That is an extension of scoring to go along with how golfers perform at easy courses that are shorter. 

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Webb Simpson ($10,500) – We are going to have to be cognizant of collective ownership amongst our six golfers. It is going to be nearly impossible to bypass the chalk in general, so it will be a lineup-by-lineup decision for me when I make builds. Webb Simpson is the number overall player in my model. Unfortunately, he is also number one in ownership. You will have to make a decision when it comes to how much exposure you want, but nobody produces yearly at the same tracks in the fashion of Webb.

Sungjae Im ($10.300) – The ownership is where it should be for the week. The price tag is fair. Those aren’t exactly ringing endorsements for a golfer that is going to far exceed his projection, but I do think he is the second-best route on this board. Im’s irons have turned around after a cold stretch in the middle of 2021, and we have seen him average 2.25 over his last four starts with that approach game.

Other Consideration – Cameron Smith ($11,200) – Either Cameron Smith or Hideki Matsuyama will be your best leverage route to consider. I don’t love Hideki’s upside because of his inability to make putts at a birdie fest, but we know Smith is a winner.

$9,000 Range

Kevin Na ($9,900) – Joel and I mentioned this about Kevin Na on our show, but it bears repeating. While Kevin Na is technically overpriced as one of the big boys in this field at $9,900, the leverage he provides at roughly 10 percent more than makes up for the price tag. You want players you like to be higher priced because it creates more playability when others are down on them.

Corey Conners ($9,600) – Corey Conners should have likely been in the $10,000 zone. I wish he would have been for all the reasons I just mentioned about Kevin Na, but there is a ton to love about the Canadian. Conners ranks first in my model for ball-striking and has gained nearly twice as many strokes on these greens versus any other surface in the world. If the putter remains hot at the track, the sky is the limit.

Other Targets: Abraham Ancer (GPPs)

$8,000 Range

Billy Horschel ($8,700) – Billy Horschel isn’t going to be for everyone, and I am okay with that. The Florida product ranks 15th at easy courses under 7,200 yards and ninth in my mixture of Bermuda scoring. Sub-10 percent is a great number.

Matt Jones ($8,400) – I like Matt Jones to keep the train rolling in Hawaii. Let’s see where the ownership comes in for the week, but if he can hover outside of the top-15 projection totals on the board, the safety Jones brings allows us to remove some of the other qualities we would like to see in his statistical makeup.

Charles Howell III ($8,000) – Charles Howell IIII looks to be one of the better cash-game values on the board at $8,000. I am willing to give him a look in GPPs if the ownership remains sub-15 percent, and his course history has been magnificent. He hasn’t missed a cut during his career in 19 tries. He has provided 15 top-30s, with nine of those landing inside the top eight.

Other Thoughts: Kevin Kisner is playable at $8,900

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,700) – I have Si Woo Kim inside the top-10 in outright win equity. He places ninth at easy courses under 7,200 yards. There is always going to be combustibility that he falters, but he does rank inside of the top-60 in every category I ran. We know that when he gets into contention that he can win, and 6-7 percent is way too low for his popularity on DraftKings. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the first page of the leaderboard when all is said and done.

Additional Thoughts: I am going to mix-and-match options, but my next two favorite targets would be Keegan Bradley ($7,400) and Stewart Cink ($7,200)

$6,000 Range

Nick Hardy ($6,600) – Fourteenth here last year. A great iron player that hits a ton of greens in regulation. He will need to keep the ball in the fairway, but my numbers love him.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Max McGreevy $6,900, Michael Thompson $6,900, Harry Higgs $6,900, Chan Kim $6,300, Andrew Novak $6,300

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