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PGA DFS

Bettor Golf Podcast Presents: PGA DFS & Betting for the PGA Championship

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

We head down to Southern Hills for the 104th PGA Championship. Spencer and Nick are feeling good about this week, and also have a special guest in Bill Adkins who had a monster takedown last week! NIck and Spencer have some big winners up their sleeves for your daily fantasy golf lineups and sports betting needs. Your first step in setting lineups for this years second Major Championship should include the Bettor Golf Podcast as the team walks through everything related to betting for the tournament to setting your DFS lineups. The guys will provide first round leader, outright winners, head to head matchups, top 10, top 20, and top 40 bets. The knowledge dropped by Nick and Spencer go a long way to helping you refine your process and become a Sharper bettor and more profitable daily fantasy golf player. Lock in with them and start climbing the leaderboards at DraftKings and FanDuel for the PGA Championship.

Take a listen to the Bettor Golf Podcast podcast by clicking here.

After you’ve listened to the Bettor Golf Podcast for the PGA Championship, make sure to take full advantage of all the tools we have to offer, ranging from articles to projection models, live streams, and our lineup optimizer. Check out the links below and if you want to try out our optimizer for a free week use promo code “RADIO” at checkout.

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Sports-wise, this is one of the best times of the year. Baseball season has started and teams are getting their bearings. NBA? The playoffs are in mid swing NHL? We’re already into the second round. But most importantly, the PGA Tour is in full swing, and sites like DK and FD are offering bigger and bigger tournaments.

All of your DFS and Betting Golf needs should start with our Bettor Golf Podcast!

After you’re done listening to the podcast for the PGA Championship, make sure to hop on into our Discord chat.

Discord Expert Chat

3 years ago 0 comments

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: PGA Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

If you haven’t had a chance to listen yet, here are the links to the Bettor Golf Podcast that I do with Stixpicks, and PGA Draftcast with Joel Schreck and Sia Nejad.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($10,000) – I am open to using Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy up top, with the only natural fade of the group for me being Collin Morikawa. McIlroy is ranked as the top player on my model from an overall sense, and his combination of total driving and short-game prowess makes it challenging for me to ignore his upside.

Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) & Jon Rahm ($11,200) will be my two preferred leverage choices. Justin Thomas ($10,700) has started to slip some in my model when I add into the mix his rising ownership, but even if he places fourth in the group when it comes to playability, the upside is there for another PGA Championship title.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,300) – Xander Schauffele at $9,300 is intriguing. I think the buzz has worn off from most when it comes to using him, but it is essential to remember that we don’t need a victory at his price tag. Still, though, Schauffele ranks first in my model from a pure upside perspective, and maybe everyone in this space is discounting his win equity, including myself.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) – I do believe we see some reduction in ownership from Cantlay since the perception is that he is on the wrong end of a weather draw, but as I always say, I am going to be the one that is most likely to get burned when it does come to fruition. In my opinion, chasing weather feels more like a daily play than an entire tournament outlook, so while it does have some meaning if you are trying to break a tie, I typically stick to my guns, which is Cantlay being the best combination of upside and safety from this group.

Other Targets: Cameron Smith ($9,700), Jordan Spieth ($9,600) and Hideki Matsuyama (49,200) are all strong candidates to consider.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: I am lower on this section than the rest of the industry, but Sam Burns ($8,800) is in play for GPPs. Shane Lowry ($8,700) ranks third in this field over the past few months regarding his total strokes gained. And then Daniel Berger ($8,600) and Louis Oosthuizen ($8,000) would be GPP-only. Those are the four that I am most intrigued by playing, with a sprinkle of Joaquin Niemann ($8,500) being in play.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,900) – Fitzpatrick is arguably the most underpriced player on the board. There is a reason he is a favorite in head-to-head matchups against golfers in the $9,000 range.

Tony Finau ($7,900) – With back-to-back top-eight finishes for Finau during PGA Championship contests, the price tag is ripe for the picking since we don’t necessarily need a victory to pay off his salary. I wouldn’t discount him getting it, but a top-10 will play just as well in the right builds.

Tommy Fleetwood ($7,600) -The Englishman has made seven cuts in a row, including five of those resulting in top-22 finishes.

Alex Noren ($7,000) – Noren ranks ninth in my model on fast Bentgrass greens and inside the top-16 for both scrambling and sand save percentage.

Additional Thoughts: Seamus Power ($7,000), Brian Harman ($7,000), Cameron Tringale ($7,100) – GPP-Only! Russell Henley ($7,200), Jason Kokrak ($7,300), Talor Gooch ($7,400), Jason Day ($7,500).

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Robert MacIntyre ($6,900), Chris Kirk ($6,900), Aaron Wise ($6,800), Mito Pereira ($6,700), Matt Kuchar ($6,800), Cam Davis ($6,700), Matt Jones ($6,600)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

We have arrived in Tulsa Oklahoma for the year’s second major, The PGA Championship. Like most majors, this will be a test of the complete game and will be very challenging for even the best in the world. Tuesday’s PGA Draftcast will feature the now famous course breakdown from Spencer Aguiar so please make sure you tune in (and we’ll also be bringing on a special guest and new contributor to the Win Daily golf team!). Please also make sure you monitor the weather with us as it could be a key factor this week in terms of which “wave” to play. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks at The PGA Championship.

Scottie Scheffler (11400) – He pretty much grades out well outstanding in every metric and that includes ARG, which he will need at The PGA Championship. Add to that he’s familiar with Southern Hills and really the only drawback is how he inhibits your roster construction. I’m fine with Scottie at the top and I’m also fine with skipping this range entirely and starting with the 9k group.

Jon Rahm (11200) – Some shaky APP lately but he has rebounded in a big way with the short game over his last few tournaments. That was the big worry earlier this year. It’s still a worry but I think he can put it all together.

Rory McIlroy (10000) – A 5th and a 2nd over his last two outings (Wells Fargo and The Masters). He seems so close to putting it all together and this does feel like a good course fit with a great all around game.

Cameron Smith (9700) – The magician seems to find a path no matter what type of course he’s on. While his OTT game is sometimes questionable he checks every other box in a big way. He’s likely to be popular so take note of possible pivots (see below).

Jordan Spieth (9600) – Finally gained with the PUTT en route to a 2nd place at The Byron Nelson. Recent form has been great and value is even better as he was priced before his great run at the Byron Nelson. Another guy who is likely to get some ownership.

Patrick Cantlay (9100) – The PUTT has been bad in his recent measured events but that doesn’t worry me at all. He played great at the Zurich and I’m willing to completely dismiss the lack of major success in exchange for the value. Cantlay, Koepka and DJ are strong pivot options off some of the big potential 9k chalk.

Will Zalatoris (8900) – The MC at the Byron Nelson doesn’t bother me as he simply had a bad putter. That can certainly happen with Zal but he seems to have everything else in the repertoire. I’m hopeful that he’s a pass for some who got burned by him last week.

Shane Lowry (8700) – Very likely popular and for good reason. He’s been great with the short game and the ball striking and he’ll be just fine in tough conditions. I should note that DeepDiveDave has been in my ear today as well and noted that Lowry is taking a ton of action in the betting market.

Tyrrell Hatton (8100) – a GPP pivot off of what I’m guessing is a relatively popular Max Homa and Corey Conners ,who are right next to him in price. Hatton won’t grade out very well OTT and APP, but I find he tends to surprise when the models don’t love him.

Tony Finau (7900) – I’m intrigued at the price with Tony Finau as I really like his upside at the PGA Championship. He’s certainly shown some flashes as of late and I’m happy to gamble at this price in a GPP.

Cameron Young (7600) – It can go south for him with the APP and upside but his ARG should keep him in play regardless. If the APP is on point he will sail past his value. I haven’t decided if this is “chalk I will eat” quite yet and it probably depends on how high the ownership gets.

Jason Kokrak (7300) – I think he’ll end up being a sneaky GPP play as he has the all around game I’m looking for at The PGA Championship and has been consistently gaining across all metrics.

Alex Noren (7000) – As I stated in the Draftcast chat last week, Noren was my favorite play on the board at the Byron Nelson. I like him this week as well and I think he’ll excel in the tough conditions.

Chris Kirk (6900) – BS has been great and PUTT has been pretty off, but we’ve seen him spike there. He’s gained OTT and on APP in 7 straight measured tournaments and is a consistent gainer ARG.

Aaron Wise (6800) – Plenty of upside here as it’s usually only the PUTT that holds him back. I’m putting a slightly smaller emphasis on the PUTT this week and happy to gamble on Wise.

Mito Pereira (6700) – likely a popular option at The PGA Championship as the BS is pretty insane. I think the ARG game is solid but I wouldn’t be shocked if he struggles a bit in that department. Either way, I think the upside is there and I’m happy to play him if ownership isn’t out of control. Pivots in this range include Lahiri and Fox.

Adam Hadwin (6300) – The BS was awful last week and I’m not sure I can explain that but he’s been solid all year and at this price I’ll pepper him into some lineups.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 53-21

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

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The Byron Nelson Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 3 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Yee Haw! Welcome to Texas and The Byron Nelson by AT&T. This weeks venue is at TPC King Ranch, it’s just a tiny hop from next weeks PGA major in Tulsa, the second major of the year and one of the reasons this field is loaded much more than normal. This field has plenty of home state talent to cheer including Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Will Zalatoris along with Ryan Palmer and Dylan Frittelli among the more notable players from the Lone Star State.

This tourney is a little tougher to handicap, the soft pricing is due to all the talent scheduled to tee off, and at the same time a lot of the top tier talent spent time at Southern Hills this week playing practice rounds, which suggests that it may be more important to the people who aren’t invited to Southern Hills next week and they realize this is the here and now for them and they won’t be practicing shots for the PGA major, they are just trying to win The Byron Nelson.

Last year K.H. Lee won with a -25 under par. The rest of the top 10 was littered with non marquee names like Kizzire, Schwartzel, Stallings, Merritt, Bramlett and Redman. Bronson Burgoon and Luke Donald were just outside the top 10. That’s 70% of players that never made it out of the 7 K salary range, Burns, Berger and Spieth are names that you normally see who also made the top 10 and please note that Berger isn’t playing this years tourney.

Lets take a look at The The Byron Nelson Final Ownership Projections to help you choose your player pools and roster selections.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Burns, Sam	24.6	9500
Thomas, Justin	24.5	10600
Zalatoris,Will	23.9	9400
Scheffler, Scottie	22.6	10900
Hadwin, Adam	18.4	8000
Vegas, Jhonattan	17.9	8400
Gooch, Talor	17.2	8600
Wise, Aaron	17.1	8100
Niemann, Joaquin	16.9	9300
McNealy, Maverick	16.7	7800
Matsuyama, Hideki	14.8	9900
Spieth, Jordan	14.3	10100
Schauffele, Xander	14.3	9700
Mitchell, Keith	14.2	7500
Noren, Alex	13.4	7900
Munoz, Sebastian	12.9	7600
Kizzire, Patton	12.6	7100
Griffin, Lanto	11.7	7700
Kim, Si Woo	11.3	7800
Kitayama, Kurt	11.2	7400
Johnson, Dustin	10.9	10200
Pereira, Mito	10.7	7600
Straka, Sepp	10.3	7600
Pan, CT	8.9	7300
List, Luke	8.9	7300
Hoge, Tom	8.6	7300
Power, Seamus	8.3	7900
Fleetwood, Tommy	8.2	9000
Kokrak, Jason	7.9	8300
Leishman, Marc	7.9	7800
NeSmith, Matthew	7.8	7300
Wolff, Mathew	7.8	7200
Smotherman, Austin	7.8	6600
Champ, Cameron	7.4	8000
Theegala, Sahith	7.4	7100
Scott,Adam	7.3	8700
Riley, Davis	6.7	7700
Swafford, Hudson	6.7	6700
Wu, Brandon	5.9	7000
Spaun, JJ	5.2	7200
Rodgers, Patrick	4.9	7000
Rai, Aaron	4.8	7200
Day, Jason	4.4	8200
Kucher, Matt	4.4	7700
Palmer, Ryan	4.3	7400
Howell III, Charlie	4.3	7200
Lee, KH	3.9	7500
Stallings, Scott	3.4	7000
Jaeger, Stephan	3.4	6900
Frittelli, Dylan	3.3	7300
Watson, Bubba	3.2	7500
Lipsky, David	3.1	7100
Bramlett, Joseph	2.9	6500
Schenk, Adam	2.8	6500
Hughes, Mackenzie	2.7	7200
Lashley, Nate	2.7	6800
Schwab, Matthias	2.6	7100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan	2.3	7400
Ortiz, Carlos	2.3	7000
Lebioda, Hank	2.3	6700
Svensson, Adam	2.3	6400
Barjon, Paul	2.3	6300
Kisner, Kevin	2.2	7500
Laird, Martin	2.1	6900
Hubbard, Mark	1.9	6900
Taylor, Nick	1.8	7000
Clark, Wyndham	1.8	6900
Piercy, Scott	1.8	6700
Reavie, Chez	1.7	6800
Schwartzel, Charl	1.7	6700
Redman, Doc	1.6	6800
Sabbatini, Rory	1.5	6600
Perez, Pat	1.4	6700
Grillo, Emiliano	1.3	6800
Tarren, Callum	1.3	6400
Buckley, Hayden	1.3	6300
Percy, Cameron	1.3	6200
Poulter, Ian	1.2	7400
Todd, Brendon	1.2	7100
Malnati, Peter	1.2	6600
Higgs, Harry	1.2	6500
Ryder, Sam	1.1	6700
Armour, Ryan	1.1	6700
Donald, Luke	1.1	6400
Willett, Danny	0.9	6900
Sigg, Greyson	0.9	6900
Stenson, Henrik	0.9	6700
Hahn, James	0.9	6600
Hossler, Beau	0.9	6600
Taylor, Vaughn	0.9	6300
Westwood, Lee	0.8	7000
Mullinax, Trey	0.8	6400
Bryan, Wesley	0.8	6300
Kang, Sung	0.7	6300
Grace, Branden	0.6	6800
Snedeker, Brandt	0.6	6600
Hagy, Brandon	0.6	6200
Dufner, Jason	0.6	6000
Huh, John	0.5	6500
Duncan, Tyler	0.5	6500
Flavin, Patrick	0.5	6200
Trainer, Martin	0.5	6100
Norris, Shaun	0.4	7200
Kim, Joohyung	0.4	6900
Hoffman, Charley	0.4	6600
Uihlein, Peter	0.4	6600
Hodges, Lee	0.4	6500
Kohles, Ben	0.4	6300
Moore, Taylor	0.3	6800
Stuard, Brian	0.3	6700
Streb, Robert	0.3	6500
Wu, Dylan	0.3	6400
Novak, Andrew	0.3	6300
Norlander, Henrik	0.3	6200
Gligic, Michael	0.3	6200
Herman, Jim	0.3	6100
Wolfe, Jared	0.3	6100
Haas, Bill	0.3	6000
Molinari, Francesco	0.2	6800
Hickok, Kramer	0.2	6400
Lower, Justin	0.2	6400
Whaley, Vincent	0.2	6400
Wallace, Matt	0.2	6300
Gutschewski, Scott	0.2	6200
Brehm, Ryan	0.2	6200
Watney, Nick	0.2	6100
Cook, Austin	0.2	6100
Putnam, Andrew	0.1	6500
Thompson, Michael	0.1	6500
Garnett, Brice	0.1	6400
Sloan, Roger	0.1	6300
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	0.1	6300
Thompson, Curtis	0.1	6200
Tway, Kevin	0.1	6100
Hadley, Chesson	0.1	6100
Werenski, Richy	0.1	6100
Skinns, David	0.1	6100
Creel, Joshua	0.1	6000
Van Der Walt, Dawie	0.1	6000
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.1	6000
Kraft, Kelly	0.0	6300
McGreevy, Max	0.0	6200
Drewitt, Brett	0.0	6100
Leonard, Justin	0.0	6000
Blixt, Jonas	0.0	6000
Killeen, JJ	0.0	6000
Reeves, Seth	0.0	6000
Loupe, Andrew	0.0	6000
ALL OTHERS	0.0

These projections for The Byron Nelson are accurate as of 6:39 EST. Top Tier Golfers will show a higher % by lock.

My picks for The Byron Nelson by AT&T

Top Tier: DJ

Mid Tier: Vegas, Gooch

Low Tier: Munoz

Out in Left Play: Wolff

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Spieth

FR Leader: Munoz (Contrarian)

Be sure to check out Spenser’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. Stix had to work at his real 40 hour job this week, (not the hundred hours he pours over his ‘hobby” which is DFS sports).Spencer did an admirable job on his own coming in at just over 17 minutes, if you want to double your DK cash account, spent 17 minutes and listen to this podcast, pure manna from heaven, and a good way to increase that bankroll.

Don’t miss out on the very popular and fun PGA DraftCast with Joel, (Joe Nicely from RB subbed for Sia, did an excellent job) and Spencer (golf writer of the year) and you, the audience, every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST!

STOP THE PRESSES ! You won’t believe this but we now have DEKI- GATE, Sia was on a plane last night so he missed the livestream, kind of. He weighed in and helped the audience from 40,000 feet until it got to the last two picks, first it was Deki/ Wu, then after much hand wringing, Joel, benevolent Joel, scratched those two picks and allowed the audience to pick Adam Scott and Patton Kizzire. Then he got jumped on for allowing the change and anarchy prevailed. New rules for next week: No boxing gloves or gladiator weapons allowed on the livestream! Everyone is going to see who would have done better during the tourney, who is your choice ? Would you take Deki/ Dylan Wu or Scott/Kizzire? Let us know in Discord! The over under on Lindsay using caps and exclamation points was a paltry 225, everyone chose over. There was an alleged producer from ESPN 30/30 wanting to get involved, and Ivan proclaimed who he wanted to play himself in the upcoming Deki-Gate movie, and we all agreed Ryan Reynolds should play Sia’s part because…the hair, the looks. By the way, say Happy Birthday to Sia in Discord regardless of what pair you wanted. He works tirelessly and is dedicated to making Win Daily Sports, and especially the Win Daily Golf content the best on the planet. Happy Birthday Mr. Hair!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

I went solo this week for the Bettor Golf Podcast and also was included on the show that went off the rails for the PGA Draftcast. I would highly recommend giving those a listen if you haven’t yet.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas ($10,600) – Justin Thomas has one of the best statical profiles I have seen for a course in a long time, and it is just going to come down to his ability to be near even or better with the flat stick if he wants to get himself across the finish line. The 29-year-old ranks inside the top-five of this field for par-five scoring, par-four average, lengthy courses that require long iron proximity, easy scoring, venues that are not producing wayward drive penalties, windy conditions and sand save percentage, and the putter is always more hit-and-miss than it is good-or-bad at a particular grass type, which might be a positive since he has gained in four of his last six starts. I believe a win could be around the corner, and TPC Craig Ranch highlights the skillset that he brings in spades.

Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.

$9,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – Am I jumping for joy with my Tommy Fleetwood selection? No. But there is leverage to be found for a golfer that has produced six straight finishes inside the top-35. That built-in floor gives us an intriguing cash-game play at his price, and we might be able to get the best of both worlds because of his six percent going rate as of Tuesday night. From a game theory perspective, Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are the three outside-the-box choices to consider from $9,000 and above, and I lean towards Fleetwood or Johnson being the two that I will find myself most overweight on compared to their counterparts.

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent

$8,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($8,600) – In my model, Talor Gooch was a climber when looking specifically at Bentgrass putting, and the combination of wind play and success at longer courses is intriguing, especially since off the tee prowess isn’t exactly what he is known for with his game. Still, though, Gooch ranks seventh in this field when condensing the data down to feature tracks over 7,400 yards that require a high percentage of irons from 200+ yards, which is good enough for me to take some chances with him at around 12%.

Jason Kokrak ($8,300) – Jason Kokrak is the #1 Bentgrass putter in this field. High-end returns like that always intrigue me when I can grab a player that is elite in a particular area, even if we are talking about a volatile statistic such as putting.

Aaron Wise ($8,100) – I want to preface this by saying that I don’t love Aaron Wise’s 16 percent going rate, but I also can’t say I disagree with the popularity because of his modest price tag of $8,100. Wise looks to be trending again after a slow start to the year, and his combination of par-five scoring and wind play is an enticing combination for a golfer that grades inside the top-16 in my weighted OTT + APP category.

Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Alex Noren ($7,900) – Quality form + a reasonable price tag of $7,900 makes Alex Noren an option in all game types. I selected him during the PGA Draftcast tonight, and I believe he has a top-25 finish well within his most likely range of outcomes.

Seamus Power ($7,900) – A ninth-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, Seamus Power enters the week under the radar thanks to his up-and-down form in 2022. I am willing to bet on the upside.

Si Woo Kim ($7,800) – Fourteen straight made cuts during events Si Woo Kim hasn’t withdrawn. That built-in safety is hard to ignore at five percent and $7,800.

Bubba Watson ($7,500) – Maybe this is getting too aggressive, but I will take my swings on Bubba Watson, who looks like a two-percent golfer on this slate. The birdie-making prowess is questionable, but the TPC layout does amplify his chances of finding success.

Matthew Wolff ($7,200), Patrick Rodgers ($7,000) – Neither will be for the faint of heart because of their combustibility, but sub-five percent marks and positive trajectory in upside should be exactly what we are looking for when targeting these lower-priced options with some semblance of win equity to their games.

Additional Thoughts: Maverick McNealy ($7,800) – Ownership is the only drawback. Ryan Palmer ($7,400) – Texas narrative and great wind player. Luke List ($7,300) – Volatile option that has top-10 upside at the price tag. Charles Howell III ($7,200) – CH3 is the largest climber in my model when comparing his Bentgrass putting versus all surfaces.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

I went solo this week for the Bettor Golf Podcast and also was included on the show that went off the rails for the PGA Draftcast. I would highly recommend giving those a listen if you haven’t yet.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Seamus Power ($7,900) – A ninth-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, Seamus Power enters the week under the radar thanks to his up-and-down form in 2022. I am willing to bet on the upside.

Si Woo Kim ($7,800) – Fourteen straight made cuts during events Si Woo Kim hasn’t withdrawn. That built-in safety is hard to ignore at five percent and $7,800.

Additional Thoughts: Maverick McNealy ($7,800) – Ownership is the only drawback. Ryan Palmer ($7,400) – Texas narrative and great wind player. Luke List ($7,300) – Volatile option that has top-10 upside at the price tag. Charles Howell III ($7,200) – CH3 is the largest climber in my model when comparing his Bentgrass putting versus all surfaces.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

AT&T Byron Nelson: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

A star studded field for the Byron Nelson this week as the PGA pros get in a little Texas tune-up and prepare for next week’s PGA Championship. This week I’m focused on APP and PUTT as the rough is not penal and the green complexes are large. Expect relatively good GIR percentages across the board, but it will really be about scoring stats and creating opportunities. More on the course breakdown on the PGA Draftcast Tuesday night at 8:00.

Scottie Scheffler (10900) – Hard to doubt him at this point and he rates out very well SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB gained. APP and PUTT are important here and his recent form is elite in both areas. Add to that he gets to play in his home state. He’s the highest priced for very good reason.

Justin Thomas (10600) – He checks all the boxes. Great on APP, SG Par 5, BOB Gained and DK points. The PUTT can be up and down, but that goes for most players, even the elite ones. I like Scottie more than JT, but they are both great plays. I think Jordan Spieth is in a good spot for a pivot if his ownership is significantly lower than Scottie and JT. More on that Wednesday with @SicilyKid’s ownership article.

Hideki Matsuyama (9900) – He checks the main boxes here as he is good on APP and pretty good with the PUTT. Love him if ownership is low. We need to monitor his neck condition to make sure there hasn’t been an aggravation since his last time out, but it appears that all systems are go for him at the moment.

Sam Burns (9500) – Another guy who checks all the boxes with excellent ball striking and is elite with Par 5 scoring, DK Points and BoB Gained. Likely to be pretty chalky along with Zalatoris, but if I’m eating some chalk in between those two, I’m taking Burns and it’s not close.

Joaquin Niemann (9300) – The PUTT may be a big problem, but outside of that he’s a great course fit. Checks the boxes in the BS department and can put up birdies and DK points quickly. If he’s chalky I’ll likely pivot away as the PUTT scares me just enough to not play him at elevated ownership.

Talor Gooch (8600) – If he’s super chalky I’m more than happy to pivot but his game does set up well for the Byron Nelson. He’s well below average OTT, but that shouldn’t hurt him here. The APP game is very good and he does well in the Par 5 scoring and DK scoring departments.

Jhonnatan Vegas (8400) – His downfall is typically the ARG game which shouldn’t come into play too much here. He was amazing on APP last week and curiously bad OTT coming off surgery. If he stays dialed in on APP he’ll be tremendous value at this price.

Adam Hadwin (8000) – He’s shown significant upside from the outset of the calendar year including three Top 10s in a row. He’s been a monster on APP and can spike with the PUTT. An extremely good value at this price and likely a pretty popular option.

Alexander Noren (7900) – One of my favorite plays on the board for the Byron Nelson. Noren checks all the boxes including APP and PUTT. He’s inside the Top 30 SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB Gained. He was underwhelming at the RBC, but prior to that was a Top 25 machine.

Kurt Kitayama (7400) – Extremely risky but can spike with the APP and PUTT. He came in 3rd at the Honda and 2nd at Vedanta which tells you all you need to know about his upside. A GPP play only as his volatility can sink your cash lineup.

JJ Spaun (7200) – Another golfer who has been great in the BS department, can spike with the PUTT and has shown the upside to win as he did at The Valero. The PUTT can go south but he’s shown enough positive variance in that department to be played here at the Byron Nelson.

Patton Kizzire (7100) – He’s gained on APP in 8 of his last 10 measured events. A birdie-fest that relies on good APP game and good PUTT certainly suits him. Pretty great value considering his upside.

Brandon Wu (7000) – He’s made 5 cuts in a row all the while doing big things with his APP and PUTT game. The sample size isn’t huge but i’ll play the value and upside all day.

Doc Redman (6800) – Sneaky play as most will likely ignore him. He’s grades out quite well on APP and with the PUTT last 24 rounds.

Austin Smotherman (6600) – He’s made 3 out of 4 cuts and profiles really well for this course as he can get after it on APP and with the PUTT. Perfect course fit and good value in this volatile range. I’d also consider Malnati and Swafford down here.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 53-20

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

AT&T Byron Nelson: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 53-20

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The Wells Fargo Final Ownership Projections

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

This week we are at another first time venue for The Wells Fargo at TPC Potomac. The venue did host the Quicken Loans National back in 2017 and 2018 so if you like history that’s five years old you have plenty of data. This course rewards accuracy more than driving distance so it’s not how far you can smoke the ball from the tee, its how many fairways you can hit and then be accurate with the expected long (175-200) approach shots. The rough is 3+ inches thick and will be soaked from local rain. This course has been rated the third and fourth toughest venue back when it was Quicken, it will need to be played conservatively and it will be no birdie fest. The smart players will accept the long approach to the middle of the green and hope for a 20-25 foot birdie, the others will go for the pin and find impossible angles and a penal rough that will send them packing by the weekend. With only two par fives on the course patience and playing for the occasional birdie seem to be the recipe for success.

One of the anomalies our AI program came up with is that the one and only top ten player at Quicken who lost strokes putting was Ryan Palmer. Strokes gained ball striking and in the short game can offset putting on this bent grass just in case you have a team no putt golfer you just have to roster. Molinari went gonzo four years ago, gaining strokes in all four categories and hitting 90% of the fairways all week. I’ll offer 3 to 1 money for any amount he doesn’t duplicate that this week…or this year, though I do wish him well. Rory is the only top 10 player to tee it up this week along with top 50 OWGR players Ancer, Casey, Conners, Finau, Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Henley, Leishman, and Webb Simpson.

NOTE** Paul Casey withdrew from the Pro-Am today because of back issues and said he would try to tee it up tomorrow. Someone needs to tell him last place doesn’t pay anything here, there’s no Masters dinner either, so he might as well pack it in.

Lets take a look at The The Wells Fargo Final Ownership Projections to help you choose your player pools and roster selections.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Conners, Corey	24.6	10100
Henley, Russell	20.2	9300
Young, Cameron	19.8	8000
McIlroy, Rory	17.9	11500
Homa, Max	17.6	8600
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	16.7	10000
Straka, Sepp	16.6	7600
Woodland, Gary	16.3	9100
Bradley, Keegan	15.8	9600
Dahmen, Joel	14.7	7600
Kim, Si Woo	14.6	8400
Mitchell, Keith	14.5	7800
Simpson, Webb	12.4	8100
Harman, Brian	12.3	7700
Garcia, Sergio	11.9	8700
Finau, Tony	11.8	10600
Pan, CT	11.4	7500
Kucher, Matt	11.3	7900
Laird, Martin	11.2	7100
Hatton, Tyrrell	10.9	9900
Long, Adam	10.9	7400
Ancer, Abraham	10.8	10400
NeSmith, Matthew	10.7	7600
Power, Seamus	10.4	8300
Ghim, Doug	9.3	7800
Armour, Ryan	9.2	6800
Streelman, Kevin	8.9	7700
Vegas, Jhonattan	8.7	7800
Casey, Paul	8.6	8800
Leishman, Marc	8.4	9700
Rai, Aaron	8.3	7900
Knox, Russell	7.9	7300
Davis, Cameron	7.4	7200
Glover, Lucas	7.3	7200
Wu, Brandon	7.2	7500
List, Luke	6.9	7100
Merritt, Troy	6.8	7500
Duncan, Tyler	6.4	6900
Lahiri, Anirban	5.9	7400
Steele, Brendan	5.9	7300
Smotherman, Austin	5.8	6800
Smalley, Alex	5.4	7300
Lashley, Nate	5.4	7000
Lipsky, David	5.3	7500
Svensson, Adam	5.1	6900
Reed, Patrick	4.3	9000
Stuard, Brian	4.2	6900
McCarthy, Denny	3.9	7300
Hubbard, Mark	3.8	7100
Griffin, Lanto	3.7	7600
Seiffert, Chase	3.6	6500
Schwab, Matthias	3.5	7200
Buckley, Hayden	3.4	6500
Kodaira, Satoshi	3.4	6400
Redman, Doc	3.2	7000
Kitayama, Kurt	3.1	7200
Sigg, Greyson	3.1	7000
Taylor, Vaughn	3.0	6300
Reavie, Chez	2.9	6700
Hossler, Beau	2.7	7100
Molinari, Francesco	2.5	7400
Poston, JT	2.4	7100
Day, Jason	2.3	8200
Grace, Branden	2.2	7000
Jones, Matt	2.1	7700
Fowler, Rickie	2.1	7400
Malnati, Peter	2.1	6600
Percy, Cameron	2.0	6300
Frittelli, Dylan	1.9	7300
Hughes, Mackenzie	1.9	7000
Chappell, Kevin	1.8	6700
Taylor, Nick	1.8	6600
Kang, Sung	1.7	6900
Lee, KH	1.7	6900
Piercy, Scott	1.6	6900
Huh, John	1.5	6500
Ryder, Sam	1.4	6800
Hodges, Lee	1.4	6800
Norlander, Henrik	1.3	6300
Barjon, Paul	1.3	6200
Bramlett, Joseph	1.2	6700
Wu, Dylan	1.2	6500
Sabbatini, Rory	1.1	6700
Novak, Andrew	1.1	6500
Lingmerth, David	1.1	6100
Schwartzel, Charl	1.0	6600
Hoffman, Charley	1.0	6400
Cink, Stewart	0.9	7200
Garnett, Brice	0.9	6500
Ramey, Chad	0.9	6800
Moore, Taylor	0.9	7100
Jaeger, Stephan	0.8	6900
Mullinax, Trey	0.8	6500
Donald, Luke	0.8	6400
Martin, Ben	0.8	6300
Byrd, Jonathan	0.8	6300
Hoag, Bo	0.7	6300
Wolff, Mathew	0.7	7000
Putnam, Andrew	0.7	6700
Hickok, Kramer	0.7	6700
Lebioda, Hank	0.7	6600
Schenk, Adam	0.7	6600
Whaley, Vincent	0.7	6200
Herman, Jim	0.6	6200
Wallace, Matt	0.6	6600
Higgs, Harry	0.6	6600
Johnson, Zack	0.5	6800
Bryan, Wesley	0.5	6400
Hadley, Chesson	0.5	6200
Blaum, Ryan	0.5	6100
Nimmer, Bryson	0.4	6200
Watney, Nick	0.4	6200
Thompson, Michael	0.4	6600
Lee, Danny	0.4	6700
Haas, Bill	0.4	6500
Wolfe, Jared	0.4	6100
Cook, Austin	0.4	6000
Werenski, Richy	0.4	6200
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	0.3	6700
Uihlein, Peter	0.3	6500
Lower, Justin	0.3	6400
McGreevy, Max	0.3	6100
Tarren, Callum	0.3	6400
Villegas, Camilo	0.3	6300
Gutschewski, Scott	0.3	6100
Hoffmann, Morgan	0.3	6000
Pettit, Turk	0.3	6000
Van Pelt, Bo	0.2	6000
Knous, Jim	0.2	6000
Gligic, Michael	0.2	6100
Hahn, James	0.2	6400
Hagy, Brandon	0.2	6300
Trainer, Martin	0.2	6200
Nesbitt, Drew	0.2	6100
Thompson, Nicholas	0.2	6000
Reeves, Seth	0.1	6100
Baddeley, Aaron	0.1	6200
Kohles, Ben	0.1	6400
Tway, Kevin	0.1	6400
Thompson, Curtis	0.1	6300
Kraft, Kelly	0.1	6200
McGirt, William	0.1	6000
Odom, Jr., Gregory	0.1	6000
Xiong, Norman	0.1	6000
Sloan, Roger	0.1	6300
Gainey, Tommy	0.0	6300
Skinns, David	0.0	6100
Drewitt, Brett	0.0	6100
Creel, Joshua	0.0	6100
Wagner, Johnson	0.0	6100
Matthews, Brandon	0.0	6000
Van Der Walt, Dawie	0.0	6000
Blixt, Jonas	0.0	6000
Gross, Larkin	0.0	6000
ALL OTHERS	0.0

These projections for The Wells Fargo are accurate as of 6:27 EST. Top Tier Golfers will show a higher % by lock.

My picks for The Wells Fargo Championship

Top Tier: Conners

Mid Tier: Bradley

Low Tier: Mitchell/ Vegas

Out in Left Play: Sung Kang

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Vegas

FR Leader: Armour (Contrarian)

Be sure to check out Spenser’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. Last week I made a point of singling out Trey Mullinax who Spencer and Stix both liked. No other podcast was high on him, there was no industry buzz, he was low owned and he crushed it. One of the players they like this week is Lucas Glover. It’s plays like this that can get you over the top, leverage your big GPP contest and get you in the money, week after week. It’s very simple, go to the Bettor Golf podcast, listen, cash your contest ticket. Repeat as often as needed.

Don’t miss out on the very popular and fun PGA DraftCast with Sia, Joel and Spencer (golf writer of the year) and you, the audience, every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST. Last night the audience had some passionate pleas for picking certain players as the audience was embolden by their convincing victory last week, if they win again this week there might be a security issue next week where one of the members jumps into the livestream, just like last night when Dave Chappelle was attacked by a ticketholder at the Hollywood Bowl at the end of a performance. Chris Rock walked out from backstage and said, “hey was that Will Smith?” Don’t miss next weeks livestream episode when alleged guest star Amber Heard shows Johnny Depp how to turn their bed into a toilet.

Everyone, I just got a close up look at the rough on the course this week. It’s at least 3 to 3.5 inches tall or more, it’s thick and wet from the rains. Think accuracy on drives and on long iron approach shots. There is a distinct advantage to the Thursday afternoon Friday morning tee times as mentioned by our new staff member Deep Dive Dave in the DraftCast last night, this gentleman from New Zealand has some serious golf chops and will be a welcome addition to our dedicated staff. Say hi to Dave when you have a chance in Discord!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Bettor Golf Podcast Presents: PGA DFS & Betting for the Wells Fargo Championship

Jason Mezrahi 3 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

We head down to the Wells Fargo Championship. Spencer and Nick are feeling good about this week and the hammey boy prop has already made an appearance on twitter. The boys have some big winners up their sleeves for your daily fantasy golf lineups and sports betting needs. Your first step in setting lineups for the Wells Fargo Championship should include the Bettor Golf Podcast as the team walks through everything related to betting for the tournament to setting your DFS lineups. The guys will provide first round leader, outright winners, head to head matchups, top 10, top 20, and top 40 bets. The knowledge dropped by Nick and Spencer go a long way to helping you refine your process and become a Sharper bettor and more profitable daily fantasy golf player. Lock in with them and start climbing the leaderboards at DraftKings and FanDuel for the Wells Fargo Championship.

Take a listen to the Bettor Golf Podcast podcast by clicking here.

After you’ve listened to the Bettor Golf Podcast for the Wells Fargo Championship, make sure to take full advantage of all the tools we have to offer, ranging from articles to projection models, live streams, and our lineup optimizer. Check out the links below and if you want to try out our optimizer for a free week use promo code “RADIO” at checkout.

Articles
Projection Model
Optimizer

Sports-wise, this is one of the best times of the year. Baseball season has started and teams are getting their bearings. NBA? The playoffs are on the horizon and the matchups for it are almost 100% set. NHL? The season is winding down and teams are starting to jockey for playoff position. But most importantly, the PGA Tour is in full swing, and sites like DK and FD are offering bigger and bigger tournaments.

All of your DFS and Betting Golf needs should start with our Bettor Golf Podcast!

After you’re done listening to the podcast for the Wells Fargo Championship, make sure to hop on into our Discord chat.

Discord Expert Chat

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Cameron Smith ($9,700), Jordan Spieth ($9,600) and Hideki Matsuyama (49,200) are all strong candidates to consider.

$8,000 Range

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Seamus Power ($7,000), Brian Harman ($7,000), Cameron Tringale ($7,100) – GPP-Only! Russell Henley ($7,200), Jason Kokrak ($7,300), Talor Gooch ($7,400), Jason Day ($7,500).

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Robert MacIntyre ($6,900), Chris Kirk ($6,900), Aaron Wise ($6,800), Mito Pereira ($6,700), Matt Kuchar ($6,800), Cam Davis ($6,700), Matt Jones ($6,600)

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.

$7,000 Range

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.

$7,000 Range

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.

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