The PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like “regularly scheduled programming” with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.
Despite being an “off” week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason and purpose for them to win and not just their paycheck. Undoubtedly, Chris Kirk’s victory in the playoff win over Eric Cole provided all the narratives for the week.
Our 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
We hope our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks are as well received as last year. At this event in 2022, we went agonizingly close with three of our six selections all looking likely title charges. Viktor Hovland (16/1), Gary Woodland (80/1), and Lucas Herbert (200/1) all presented likely winners during the tournament. They eventually finished 2nd, 5th, and 7th respectively. Woodland was actually the most likely, until finding a bunker and a double bogey on the 17th followed by another bogey down the last.
That stumble allowed Scottie Scheffler to surprisingly snatch victory. Let’s hope our 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks produce more of the same with some better fortune.
Course Analysis
It is first essential to note that Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses some of the highest correlation of prior course form to success on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National and TPC Scottsdale hold a higher correlation. This unique and difficult test does have a few nuances which identify this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.
You will hear a lot on driving distance being a predictive factor this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact on face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. Rather, the extremely juicy 3in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape.
The distance off the tee also comes into play with the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play as the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, those longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hand for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and glassy fast greens.
Fairways are decently wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300 yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. Green complexes are also very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. This is predominantly due to where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR, as well as the lengthened approach shots into many holes.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks – Key Metrics
For our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, this all leads to a profile of heavy emphasis on approach. Driving distance is a bonus, but my key is finding value by honing into the 200+ yard approach metrics. SG: PUTT receives a boost given the inclement weather and large green complexes. SG: ATG is minimized due to thick rough surrounding the greens meaning the natural variation of lies mitigates those with excellent pitching ability.
Course Comps
As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part in your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. There are another few courses which can guide our thinking. Do take a look at round 4 from last year’s tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on both Friday and Saturday.
As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those venues can provide guidance. Host of the PGA Championship last year was Southern Hills, which has similar metrics with the added benefit of being a wind affected event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both on long approach play but also reasonably large fairways with significant penalty if straying too far. Trump National Doral is a fantastic guide for anyone whose form goes back that far.
Weather
Already well canvassed across many tipsters, it does look that a firm weather edge is forming. Friday afternoon in particular looks to feature some significant winds with gusts reaching over 35 mph. These high winds are then expected to remain through the 3rd round before easing slightly Sunday. A Thursday PM/Friday AM stack looks to be the play.
As always, this does come with risks. There is a chance that this particular front will arrive earlier than expected. This could result in any advantage being negated, and missed opportunities in the other half of the field. However, I always like to take an aggressive approach in these situations. We have tangible data to action here. And the closer we have got to tee time, the certainty of the Friday weather remaining exclusively in the afternoon has also increased.
https://www.windy.com/28.465/-81.510?27.913,-81.510,8,m:esBadTk
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking
Xander Schauffele
2.5pts E/W $23.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $36.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Tom Kim
2pts E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Gary Woodland
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.20
Patrick Rodgers
0.5pts E/W $176.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.00
Will Gordon
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds) *available at 350/1 or longer without the places
3pts Top 20 $8.50
Player Profiles
Xander Schauffele – Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks Favourite
With Chris Kirk becoming the umpteenth golfer to win a week or two after featuring in our selections, I’m happy to take Xander here again to headline our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks. Last time in our tips was at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, where he was just one shot off the lead heading into the final 9. A cold putter saw 6 of 9 putts missing by 25in or less. He finished just one shot outside the places for us. And not without some controversy too.
Over the past two years, Xander ranks out 2nd of all PGA Tour players with over 300 measured approach shots 200+ yards. He sits only behind Sungjae Im. I prefer Xander for a couple reasons.
First, there are couple of par 4s here under 400 yards where Xander’s much better approach from 50-100 yards will come at an advantage. Secondly, Xander’s approach play of late has been nothing short of incredible.
Schauffele arrives here after four consecutive tournaments gaining 4+ strokes on approach. Over the last three months, Schauffele also tops the list for SG: APP in this field. He has never finished worse than 14th at a US Open, with 5/6 of those finishes an incredible 7th or better. And in his sole appearance at Bay Hill, he gained +6.5 strokes putting.
Tyrrell Hatton
Past champion Tyrrell Hatton was somewhat disappointing for us when selected last time at the Genesis Invitational. I’m willing to forgive him and go back to him here on a track obviously suited to his game. The real difficulty for Hatton last time out came simply not getting his entire game firing at the same time.
Thursday he was 14th SG: PUTT and 23rd SG: ATG, but 115th SG: APP and 91st SG: OTT.
Friday he was 27th SG: APP and 9th for SG: OTT, but 95th for SG: PUTT and 93rd SG: ATG.
Saturday he was 3rd SG: OTT, 5th SG: ATG, and 15th SG: PUTT yet 67th SG: APP.
Sunday he was 3rd SG: APP, but 46th SG: OTT, 39th SG: ATG, and 66th SG: PUTT.
You can see where I am going with this; he really just needs to put this all together at the same time and he can win. For SG: APP on shots 200+ yards, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour since 1 January 2023.
We saw shades of this at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, when finishing 6th in the elevated field. He gained a massive +6.72 SG: APP at that event and also holds a 15th in his only other appearance. Where course history matters most here, he sits 4th in this field for any golfer who has played 6 rounds or more.
I also love that last year he was one of only four golfers to shoot under par in a very windy final round. Complimenting that is a strong performance at a very windy Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which is a Rolex Series event on the DP World Tour. With wind again a factor this year, he looks a great fit on a course he loves at a reasonable price.
Tom Kim
It is easy to come up with all manner of superlatives to describe this talented 20 year old. And, equally, easy to forget how young he still is given all he has already achieved in the sport. To snag him back at a price of 50/1 is great value, especially when you consider he is shorter odds than that at all 4 majors this year.
The only reason I can think why bookmakers rate him 30% less likely to win this event than a major is driving distance. However, even this is a tenuous position. Masters typically rewards driving distance as does the US Open. Further, the main interest for me with distance comes from the approach play.
Tom Kim sits in the Top 10 of this field for SG: APP over the last 12 months. He also sits 5th on the PGA Tour over the last 2 years for SG: APP over 200+ yards. He holds onto 5th if we look at the same metric since 1 January 2023.
Given he is plenty long in this field for me, the fact he is significantly positive for driving accuracy is another big tick. Keeping on the short grass will be a big advantage here if hitting approach shots from distance. We all know what he can do with the putter, including during the Presidents Cup hosted at Quail Hollow which features similar greens to here.
Gary Woodland – Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value
As mentioned in the preamble, Woodland really should have won this tournament for us last year. Holding a one stroke lead with two holes to play, a double bogey-bogey finish in the wind was a disappointing end to an overall valiant effort.
Woodland’s approach play looks to be back to its best of late. He arrives here ranked 5th for SG: APP over the last 30 days. This includes gaining an insane +10.48 SG: APP in his last tournament. That sat only behind winner Jon Rahm and Luke List, with a substantial distance to the pack. To secure him here again at 80/1, as we did last year, seems a steal for a golfer whose two most recent victories have come at the correlated US Open and WM Phoenix Open.
The issue for Woodland, as it is in most cases, will come down to the putter. The fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4/5 of his most recent appearances makes this one of the better spots for him.
Patrick Rodgers
We enter the somewhat speculative plays, but hopefully with sufficient equity in the top finishes markets to justify a couple of flyers here. Rodgers heads those picks. Data Golf currently have Rodgers ranked as 59th in the world versus an OWGR of 140th. Disparities like that often have a way of eventually correcting themselves, and it could well be here.
Rodgers has a decent record at Bay Hill, making 6/7 cuts and finishing 7th in 2018. Correlated form includes 14th, 16th, and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a perfect record of made cuts in the US Open.
Patrick Rodgers arrives here hitting his long irons well, sitting in the Top 10 on the PGA Tour for SG: APP 200+ yards since 1 January 2023. He has plenty of driving distance and consistently gains strokes both ATG and putting. This includes gaining SG: Putt in 6/7 appearances here.
Rodgers was T11 in round 4 scoring here in 2022, which was played in those torrid windy conditions. Recent correlated form of 14th at the WM Phoenix Open elevated event suggests the 175/1 price is simply too long.
Will Gordon
Finally, we round out this week’s selections with another dive down the board to Will Gordon. The PGA Tour returnee had a stellar amateur career and holds some good correlating form on Florida tracks particularly from the Korn Ferry Tour.
Gordon has gained strokes on approach and driving accuracy in four straight events. He sits 30th for SG: APP and 40th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 30 days. But it is again the long iron performance which holds the most appeal. Gordon currently sits 17th on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months for SG: APP over 200+ yards. Having gained on the field for driving distance at every event since March 2022, he does so without often compromising driving accuracy so ticks the SG: OTT box in a big way.
His sole appearance here came in 2021 during his first full season. It was a tough year for him in general, so the 49th finish should be read in the light of coming during a weak period of form. Rather, I’ll focus on the positive that he gained +4.00 SG: PUTT during the tournament to sit 12th in that metric. Arriving here with much improved approach play and undoubtedly a more rounded player, he is worth a gamble at huge odds.
For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/
