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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Pebble Beach betting tips provided by DeepDiveGolf

Before getting into our betting tips for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Pebble Beach Golf Links and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Pebble Beach golf betting tips below.

It was fantastic finally securing a winner after a month of runner-ups and close finishes on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. To do so at the Farmers Insurance Open at 125/1 with Matthieu Pavon only made it even sweeter.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Jordan Spieth heads the list. The course history is obvious, as is the resurgence to form, and his correlated win at Harbor Town. However, the weather raises concern with the inherent volatility that this will bring. Likewise, with just the one start in 2024 question marks remain whether the improvement in performance is here to stay. He was simply a tad too short when compared to my preferred option at the top of the market.

Russell Henley was considered at 50/1, although the Sony Open was again a reminder that he may struggle to get across the line as often as he should. I preferred to emphasise putting more this week as well, which contributed to his exclusion along with Chris Kirk at 80/1. Finally, Noren holds obvious abilities in the wind. He was tough to leave out. He struggles in the key approach range of 100-150 yards. Additionally, he has missed the cut here twice when hitting the ball relatively well. I’d have likely taken him at 100/1 rather than the 80s on offer.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Updated Monday 29 January 8:00am

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite
5pts E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Speculative Play
0.5pt Straight Forecast Homa to beat Schauffele +20000 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite

Once I saw the weather forecast, there was one name I wanted to head my betting card if we could get the right number. Having opened at just 15/1 in the UK, I was very pleased to see Max Homa open at 22/1 in win only markets.

Homa’s aptitude for performing in his home state of California is well documented. He is a winner at Riviera, Torrey Pines, and twice at the Fortinet Championship in Napa. An element of comfortability in the area and, particularly, on the poa annua surfaces could well be key this week.

What excited me about the weather was Homa’s clear aptitude to find the top of the leaderboard in such conditions. His 2022 Wells Fargo Championship and Fortinet Championship wins both came in miserable wet conditions. Perhaps some of the comes to his mental toughness. He has the word “Relentless” tattooed on his right wrist and would often tell his Cal teammates “you have to be a bulldog, you just got to be tough”.

Max Homa has finished 10-14-7 his last three starts on this course, all when this was still a full field event. He should benefit from the removal of Monterey Peninsula, his weakest course of the three. Of no surprise, he is one of the best in the world for approach from 100-150 yards. Additionally, he gets the easier but more exposed Pebble Beach in calmer weather on Thursday.

Homa has finished no worse than 21st since June 2023, a run of 11 straight tournaments. More remarkably, he has finished 14th or better in the 10 events since July 2023. The majors are the obvious next step for him, but winning on an iconic course like Pebble Beach will be high on his goals as he is in our betting tips.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Outside Homa, we move right down the board to golfers 80/1 or longer. The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, we have assigned some heavy weighting on Homa. Secondly, in a event likely to prove volatile with the weather and a small 80 man field there could well be some decent value at the lower end of the board this week.

The first of those is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. A three time winner at DP World Tour level, Bezuidenhout went awfully close to his debut PGA Tour victory when runner-up at the American Express two weeks ago. A missed cut at Torrey Pines was unsurprising, being a week after that run and on a golf course that really is far too long for him.

Bezuidenhout has played here just once for a 14th placed finish. Notably, this came after an indifferent opening 71 on the now excluded Monterey Peninsula. He gained +1.90 strokes to the field at Spyglass Hills. However, he did by far his best work at Pebble Beach. Closing with rounds of 66-69 there, he gained a cumulative +6.75 strokes to the field on the weekend.

He does his best approach work from 100-150 yards, sitting in the top 20% in the world over the last 12 months. His game really does look to be elevating of late. He is the best in the field over the past 3 months for SG: APP and 6th for SG: Putting. He is also in the top 25% in this field for SG: ATG over the past 6 months. That combination of the key approach range with an excellent short-game is ideal for Pebble Beach. Ideally, he gets the first tee-time on Pebble Beach for Thursday.

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value

Hadwin looks to be clear value at 100/1 this week. Another on the improve, he was 6th when last sighted at the American Express in La Quinta California.

He has a great record on this course, with form of 39-18-MC-16. The latest 16th place finish included losing 4 strokes on the greens. Given he has gained significantly on the greens in his other three appearances, it speaks to his suitability on this unique approach test. He is also the 9th best putter in this field over the past 6 months.

The approach data from 100-150 yards is some of the best you can find. He is in the top 2% for good shot percentage from that yardage and, additionally, he is in the top 7% for strokes gained in this approach bucket in the world over the last 12 months. For this particular field, he ranks 10th for SG: APP from this yardage. Hadwin also is the third group out on Thursday at Pebble Beach.

Performance in wild weather is also evident. Most notably, he finished 9th in the extremes of The Players Championship in 2022. The benefit of being accurate but also decently long off the tee, combined with a superb chipper and putter, will be an asset in these conditions.

Andrew Putnam

Finally, we round out our selections with Andrew Putnam. Putnam’s lack of distance should be no issue on this golf course, with his excellent driving accuracy a potential benefit in the high winds.

Again, sticking to the key approach range of 100-150 yards really identifies Putnam. He is 7th for SG:APP in this field over the past 12 months there. He is in the top 95% or better in the world for SG, GIR, Good Shot % and Poor Shot Avoidance for approach in that range over the last year.

A 6th place finish here in 2022 was noteworthy, where he played very well at Spyglass Hill and in his first of the two rounds at Pebble Beach. An average final round can somewhat be excused to nerves when holding the joint 54 hole lead. He will be better for that experience, and arrives here a much improved prospect than 2 years ago.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my Pebble Beach betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

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Finally, I highly recommend connecting your WinDaily Sports Premium account to Discord. This grants you access to all our Premium Discord channels. You’ll be the first to get access to our betting tips and give you the best chance to snatch the sharpest numbers. Just go to your My Account page and click the “Connect With Discord” button.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Pebble Beach plays host to DeepDiveGolf AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

What a week! Having been knocking on the door at every PGA Tour event in 2024, we finally saw one of our golfers get across the line. Obviously, that was in a rather big way with Matthieu Pavon making these pages at a massive 125/1! A huge bet landing, but also our first real signature event of the season as we preview what to expect from Pebble Beach.

Of course, it was a result that had been coming for quite sometime. At all three PGA Tour tournaments, we had who seemed the likely winner right there on Sunday. Theegala was runner-up and Spieth 3rd at The Sentry. We had Henley, Grillo, and Putnam at the Sony Open. Henley should’ve probably won that event, as should Sam Burns at the American Express last week. I always reiterate, the key is to trust the process. As we continue to find the likely winner at events, the more they are in the position to do so and come Sunday one will eventually find his way tot he top of the podium.

We can’t get too greedy having hit a huge winner last week. Despite the huge hit, we still had a few close calls. Patrick Rodgers secured himself a 9th place finish. That cashed our Top 20 bet on him at +300. He did miss out by one shot on a full place payout at +1320. Zalatoris looks well on the way to recovery, finishing 13th for us just two shots off a full place at +900. Schenk was one shot off cashing his Top 20 bet at +450. All around, a very profitable week obviously. Let’s go get some more with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: Course Analysis

Some important changes this year to note in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview. With the move to a Signature Event, keeping the sponsors happy with all the best available players here, we also see the reduction to a field size of just 80 players.

This means we see the third course in rotation, Monterey Peninsula, dropped. Amateurs will only play first two rounds, with all the professionals playing 4 rounds with no cut. The first two rounds are split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach Golf Links will then host the final two rounds.

This should prove easier than the confusing mangle of data when three courses were in rotation and required analysis. Particularly, with three rounds on Pebble Beach it means we can near exclusively focus on players suitability to that course and what is required in our preview.

Pebble Beach is a rather unique and quirky test. The iconic course is very short. Sitting at under 7,000 yards it is the shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour. Greens are also some of the smallest we see of the regular PGA Tour stops at just 3,500 sq feet on average. Despite the short distance, cliffs and hazards determine that it can’t simply be overpowered by the driver. However, with the 4th widest fairways on Tour driving accuracy is also of limited importance here. As such, we see nearly all players playing from the same approach distance often.

This sees one of the largest concentrated pockets of approach shots all season, with 100-150 yard approach essential to success. With the tiny greens, there is also a large uptick in both SG: ATG and SG: Putting. These both receive heavy weighting in my model. Especially, considering the current inclement weather predicted which we will discuss shortly.

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Pebble Beach Course Comps

Firstly, as we preview some course comps for Pebble Beach it is worth noting course history is somewhat transitive at this event. It becomes difficult to untangle individual performance on each track with a myriad of factors in account. For example, if a day in particular played more difficult in general should we read too much into a golfer’s performance on whichever course they were on? If this event does remain across the two courses, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links, deciphering suitability and crossover to other tournaments may become easier.

The same can be said when discussing comp courses. I believe Harbor Town should prove somewhat decent guidance. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large deviation from standard driving distance. Greens are also extremely small, with increased missed GIR seeing a boost in SG: ATG and SG: Putting. Mav McNealy finished 4th at the RBC Heritage the same year he was runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth has an excellent record at both and is a winner at each.

The RSM Classic could also be a useful guide. Another coastal tournament, it uses a rotation between the Seaside Course and longer Plantation Course. General form in California is appreciated, as is performance on these tricky poa annua greens.

Weather Analysis

You know the weather must be bad when the rest of golf Twitter is suddenly alight with forecast take! Of course, we always preview weather as an essential component of our analysis and especially at Pebble Beach. It seems bizarre not to when no other sport is more subject to the elements.

Objectively, the weather does indeed look dreadful this week. There is a large frontal system moving along the coast, with the first wave to hit overnight Wednesday.

Thursday itself should be calm. However, it is worth noting the huge amount of rain forecast overnight with high winds. There may be delays due flooding or downed trees with branches that need retrieving before play can commence. Friday will again see light rain, with some moderate gusts in the afternoon.

Saturday sees much of the same. Sunday is where it looks to get really gnarly. The rest of the storm is forecast to arrive, bringing extremely heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if no play occurs on that day. Especially, considering the exposed nature of Pebble Beach you could easily see balls unable to remain still on the greens. Expect either a 54 hole event or a Monday finish (which still looks very wet and windy).

What should we make of this? Given breadth of the weather, the best approach is likely simply finding golfers who have positive performance in wet and windy conditions. I do have a slight preference to playing the more exposed Pebble Beach on the Thursday. Spyglass Hill receives a modicum of protection due to the trees on the property.

You can find latest forecast details here.
Make sure to check in the WinDaily Premium Discord for up to date weather information using premium models, right up until first tee-time.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

Don’t miss out: Promo ends 31st January!

Thank you for reading my Pebble Beach preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, you can preview these here.

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The Farmers Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

This week we are at The Farmers tourney in ( flooding at the moment) Torry Pines, California. There are 2 inches of water on the course and it’s closed to the players and anybody else. With a Wednesday start it will be a mighty effort to have the course ready. The reason for the day early start is that the PGA has no desire to be embarrassed by TV ratings and go up against the NFL Championships on Sunday. Regardless of when or if they get started Win Daily Sports has the tools and experts to assist you with roster construction. The Farmers Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

We have two courses instead of three this week, simply named the north and south course. The players split the two courses over the first two days and after the cut they play the much more challenging south course on Friday and Saturday. You will not see a 25 under par score anywhere near here. The north course also plays from 1 to 3 strokes easier than the south course. The Torrey Pines skill set consists of the short game and putting. Longer iron play is key here. You have a 7700 yard course that’s extremely water logged, so buckets this week are 150-175 and 200+. Xander, Morikawa ,Hoge, Finau, Straka, and Suh fit the bill. Last year the south course putting was the toughest over any other course played in 2023. Good putters from 15 feet to the pin include English, McNealy, Suh and Grillo.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit missed the the cut for the first time in 11 tries to bring our record to 10-1 last eleven.. Our biscuit pick this week will be in the Win Daily Sports Discord Wednesday evening. Win Daily Sports is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild weather with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday in the early wave. A “Marine Layer” may set in due to all the rain and flooding. It brings in light fog, clouds, light precipitation and much colder temperatures. There may be an afternoon wave edge. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Tuesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the Farmers Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Morikawa, Collin24.610200
Homa, Max23.910100
Schauffele, Xander23.710600
Bradley, Keegan22.18900
Im, Sungjae19.79900
Theegala, Sahith19.28700
List, Luke16.97800
Aberg, Ludvig16.89700
Finau, Tony16.49300
Lee, Min Woo16.29100
Straka, Sepp13.48600
Cole, Eric13.39000
Day, Jason12.59500
Montgomery, Taylor12.17400
Cantlay, Patrick11.910500
Rose, Justin11.98300
Matsuyama, Hideki11.48500
Jaeger, Stephan 11.17800
Pendrith, Taylor 10.67400
English, Harris10.48800
Zalatoris,Will9.98000
Ryder, Sam8.97200
Griffin, Ben8.87700
Hojgaard, Nicolai8.78400
Svensson, Adam8.67600
Kim, Michael8.47300
Lowry, Shane8.37900
Berger, Daniel8.28100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan7.88000
Eckroat, Austin 7.77100
Bhatia, Akshay 7.57500
Meronk, Adrian7.48200
Hisatsune, Ryo7.27500
Rodgers, Patrick7.17700
Smalley, Alex 6.97200
Schenk, Adam6.87300
Hossler, Beau6.77600
Stevens, Sam6.37000
Fox, Ryan6.17500
Mitchell, Keith6.17900
Bramlett, Joseph5.86800
Moore, Taylor5.27300
Rai, Aaron5.17400
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)4.97200
Pavon, Matthieu4.87100
Thompson, Davis 4.67200
Horschel, Billy4.47400
Hoge, Tom4.17200
Suh, Justin 3.97200
Vegas, Jhonattan3.86700
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)3.77000
Spaun, JJ3.67300
Kohles, Ben3.47000
Woodland, Gary3.47000
Grillo, Emiliano3.37500
Detry,Thomas 3.27100
Griffin, Lanto3.26800
Hughes, Mackenzie2.97300
Sigg, Greyson 2.96900
Hardy, Nick2.87000
MacIntyre, Robert 2.66800
Tosti, Alejandro2.66600
Gotterup, Christopher2.46500
Lee, KH2.47100
Whaley, Vincent2.36800
Bjork, Alexander2.27100
Hubbard, Mark2.27000
Ghim, Doug2.16800
McNealy, Maverick2.16900
Norrman, Vincent2.16900
Yuan, Carl2.06900
Tarren, Callum1.96400
Duncan, Tyler1.86800
Wallace, Matt1.87100
Hadley, Chesson1.77100
Gordon, Will1.66900
NeSmith, Matthew1.66600
Semikawa, Taiga1.66800
Stallings, Scott1.67000
Young, Carson1.66700
Bridgeman, Jacob1.56500
Champ, Cameron1.56800
Kim, Chan1.56700
Barjon, Paul1.46100
Hodges, Lee 1.46900
Lindheim, Nicholas1.47000
Schmid, Matti (Matthias)1.46700
Higgo, Garrick1.26500
Merritt, Troy1.16600
Moore, Ryan1.16600
Perez, Victor 1.16900
Endycott, Harrison1.06400
Hoffman, Charley1.06500
Dahmen, Joel0.96700
Lashley, Nate0.96500
Stanger, Jimmy0.96400
Wu, Dylan0.96600
Dumont de Chassart, Adrien0.86400
Knapp, Jake0.86400
Snedeker, Brandt0.86200
Xiong, Norman0.86300
Cink, Stewart0.76900
Lower, Justin0.76500
Ramey, Chad0.76500
Greyserman, Max0.66300
Hoey, Rico0.66200
Molinari, Francesco0.66700
Shelton, Robby0.66600
Buckley, Hayden0.56200
Phillips, Chandler0.56500
Streelman, Kevin0.56600
Coody, Pierceson 0.46100
Echavarria, Nico0.46300
Hall, Harry0.46600
Power, Seamus0.46700
Riley, Davis 0.46400
Blair, Zac0.36700
Coody, Parker 0.36300
Malnati, Peter0.36300
Reavie, Chez0.36400
Silverman, Ben0.36400
Dougherty, Kevin0.26100
Laird, Martin0.26300
Lipsky, David0.26200
Martin, Ben0.26400
Meissner, Mac 0.26200
Novak, Andrew0.26200
Springer, Hayden0.26200
Baddeley, Aaron0.16300
Fishburn, Patrick0.16300
Highsmith, Joe0.16500
McCormick, Ryan0.16200
Teater, Josh0.16100
Watney, Nick0.16000
Alexander, Tyson0.06100
Block, Michael0.06000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
Byrd, Marcus0.06000
Campos, Rafael0.06000
Crowe, Trace0.06100
Furr, Wilson0.06100
Gutschewski, Scott0.06000
Hale Jr., Blaine0.06100
Holmes, JB0.06000
Pereda, Raul0.06000
Sisk, Cameron (a)0.06000
Skinns, David0.06100
Sloan, Roger0.06200
Taylor, Ben0.06000
Valimaki,Sami 0.06300
Witney, Tom0.06100

These Farmers Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:24 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

********Leverage Plays******

The big boss Jason requested that we add leverage plays to assist you with additions to your player pool and roster. Lets say golfer A is 34 % owned. You have three choices. Double (2X) your exposure (have 68 % of golfer A), sometimes even more, OR fade golfer A completely. So if you have golfer A in 7 out of every ten lineups and he crashes and burns, the only money you will see on Sunday is the greenbacks that go to some other DK player. If you fade him completely and he smashes you’ll have the same outcome.

How do we lower risk while trying to gain on the field? Your 3rd option is have golfer A in 3 out of every ten contests (roster the field average.) Then find one to two other players who are cheaper, lower owned, and who have the best shot at equaling or surpassing Golfer A or even coming up a fraction short of golfer A. This is pure leverage.

If you have two golfers at 3 % and 5% ownership and your other 4 golfers are the exact same as 300 other entries it means it’s down to your last two golfers versus their two (2V2) Most players will use their optimizer of choice which will always come in at much higher ownership for the last 2 golfers. You may have 5 golfers the same and it comes down to your 1 versus their one golfer (1V1). If your ownership, 3 & 5 %, goes up against their ownership % and your last two golfers have almost the exact same score as their last two, guess what? You just passed 300 golfers. Absolute leverage.

Our very own Stix Picks last week rostered Nick Dunlap who was owned by .14 of the field. That’s one tenth of 1%. Instead of earning twice his entry fee he finished 6th and earned thousands of dollars. For big GPP’s you only have to be different on one golfer, just one, perhaps two in the Milly Makers. Leverage is math, it could mean the difference in adding 5 zero’s onto your winnings.

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: P Cantlay. (Morikawa and Homa will have double + the ownership % on Patrick. Look at it like this – Would you take Morikawa at -230 over Cantlay? Homa at -230 over Cantlay (just to win 100)? If its a no, you are correct and Cantlay is leverage.)

Upper Mid: Jason Day 9500 salary, 12% owned VS Sungjae IM, 9900 salary and 20% owned and Aberg, 9700 salary and 17% owned)

Mid Tier: Will Z (8K salary and 9.9% ownership VS Bradley 8900 and 22.1 % owned, and Theegala 8700 salary and 19% ownership)

Low Tier: Nick Hardy (7K salary and 2.8% owned VS List 7800 salary and 17 % Owned, and Taylor Montgomery7400 and 12 % owned)

Bottom of the Barrel: Nate Lashley (6500 and 1% ownership)

My picks for The Farmers

Top Tier: Xander

Mid Tier: English

Low Tier: Michael Kim

Out in Left Play: Hardy

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Bradley

FR Leader: Taylor Moore (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well.

Stix placed 6th in a huge GPP last week by rostering Dunlap, the eventual champion, and the only amateur in the tourney. Stix has a set of gorilla balls the size of Kong’s. It also paid out thousands of dollars. Congrats Stix! The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Congrats for ANOTHER sweet profit placement last week at the AMEX, as well as numerous top 5 and top 10 ‘s as well!

***** Parting Shots *****

A cute little girl walks into a pet store and goes up to the owner standing behind the counter. He says, “hello little miss, how can I help you? She says, ” I need a bunny wabbit.” “He goes, awww, ok.” We have all different types ” We have big ones, little ones, grey ones, brown ones, rabbits with their ears standing straight up and some with floppy ears that hang down!” ‘What will it be?” She stands there, thinks for quite a while, then looks up, and says, ‘I really don’t think my python gives a fuck.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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American Express Golf Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
PGA West plays host to our American Express golf betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the three courses used this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the American Express golf betting tips below.

As always, a few honourable mentions for this week. Adam Hadwin has an excellent desert record and equally as impressive a record here previously. He would’ve been preferred at 70s to the 50s that are on offer in this strength of field. Stephan Jaeger entered the frame given his ball-striking. Questions still remain about the putter with him. Clearly, that is a factor this week more than most. This might be the type of test that should suit Michael Kim at 150/1. However, others were just preferred ahead of him in that price range.

Finally, as mentioned in my preview article the average winning odds here are 130/1. I would, however, again mention that this field has seen increasing strength the last two years. Favourite Jon Rahm was victorious in 2023 at just +650, back when he was busy winning at every tournament he started. Obviously, he is not here to defend his title this week. But many other big names are returning. They dominate the market and, as such, it may still remain difficult for a very long outsider to shock the golf world here. Although we have found some value spots, the American Express betting tips reflect that reality.

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The American Express Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best odds at 00:00ET 16 January
Suggested Staking

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Unibet)

Austin Eckroat
0.5pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +162 (Bet365)

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +170 (TAB) or +162 (Bet365)

Joseph Bramlett
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +275 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite

We lead off the card with Sam Burns. Skipping the top of this betting board comes with obvious risks. However, if there was ever an event where we are going to take on the likes of Scheffler and Cantlay, it should probably be this one. Burns sits right below the elite of the game, yet receives a more generous price than some of his counterparts who for me rank in a similar tier. The 33/1 looks a fair few points too high when compared to the likes of Sungjae Im and Tom Kim at 20/1.

Unlike the latter of those two, Burns has plenty of driving distance ranking 11th in this field from the past 6 months. He also ticks the putting box, sitting 10th in SG: Putting in this field over the past year. An average week at The Sentry, when 33rd, can be forgiven when shaking off the rust. If anything, Burns looked consistent if not spectacular, carding 4 rounds in the 60s.

His course form here is superb, with a record of 18-6-MC-11. We see more hints to his potential suitability with a 2nd at the Byron Nelson on his first look there. Further, desert golf in Las Vegas has seen Burns secure a 20th, 34th, and 14th most recently.

The Pete Dye Stadium course, where two rounds are played, should suit him particularly well. Burns won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club, another Pete Dye design. Putting always receives a higher weighting in match-play events. Further, La Quinta Country Club has a large increase in long iron shots, with 35% of approach shots over 200 yards. That is very similar to the Copperhead Course, where Sam Burns has a fabulous record as two time winner of the Valspar Championship.

Min Woo Lee

With his first professional start in 2024, it naturally comes with some risk putting up a golfer who hasn’t played a tournament since early December. However, he is far from the only one in that boat. 2024 has been a ear-marked by many pundits as a potential break-through year for the talented young Australian. A victory in this type of field would give him plenty of confidence that he can go on to even better things.

Much of the hype comes from a very strong end to last year. He won an event in Macao, as he should’ve given the opposition, and then in a stronger field at the Australian PGA Championship. Given his youth, Min Woo doesn’t have much in the way of desert experience from the PGA Tour. However, having been born in Perth Western Australia, he would’ve had plenty of opportunity over the years as well as playing in the famous Melbourne sand-belt region including during his amateur years.

This does look like the type of test that should suit his game. He is the 2nd longest driver, 12th for SG: Putting, and 13th for SG: ATG in this field over the past 12 months. Where he can lack in approach, this has seen continual improvement and his best area is for approach over 200 yards. He began the 2023 season with aplomb, finishing a close 2nd in the desert at a DP World Tour Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi with one of the strongest fields of the season. Let’s hope for another quick start this year.

Cam Davis

We go back-to-back with the young Aussie golfers in our American Express betting tips with Cam Davis. Although he hails from the opposite side of Australia in Sydney, that is also closer to the sand belt region where he has a wealth of experience.

Davis’ sole PGA Tour victory came at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, far from the worse comp for here. Always a low scoring affair, it has become more of a bomber’s paradise over time. We perhaps expected Davis to kick-on from that victory earlier than he has. But, much akin to Min Woo, he had a strong end to 2023 and this could be the year he realizes that raw potential.

That included a run of 8 tournaments from July to November. Davis finished outside the top 12 just once in those events. Most relevant was a 7th place at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas, where he has never missed the cut in 5 appearances. Although missing the cut here last year, that only speaks to the volatility of this tournament. In 2021, he was 3rd at this event to compliment a 28th and 29th in his first two years on the PGA Tour.

A 4th at the PGA Championship and a 6th at The Players Championship suggest he is grown more comfortable in elite company. The latter of those two is hosted at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design. I like that Cam Davis saw marked improvement in both approach and driving accuracy across the two Hawaii tournaments. Look to the man who is the best putter in this field over the last 3 months to provide a strong showing this week.

Beau Hossler

A certain golfer made our 2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips write-up, where I noted he was possibly due for big things that year. The player was Wyndham Clark. He would later cash 80/1 winning tickets for us at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the US Open. I’ve included Beau Hossler among the names of golfers I think could be due for a big year in 2024.

Obviously, Clark was quite the anomaly and I don’t necessarily think that Hossler will go and win a major this year. I do see parallels in his improvement over the past 6 months though, and suspect a maiden victory is imminent.

Notably, we have seen some significant improvement from Hossler’s approach play in 2023. If looking at the past 24 months, Hossler ranks a lowly 123rd in SG: APP for this field. Over the past 3 months, he ranks 20th. In fact, over the past 6 months Hossler is 12th in this field for SG: TOTAL. Possessing plenty of distance off the tee and making plenty of putts, the approach is really the final key in the puzzle for him.

Having a 20th on debut at this event, he also holds a 17th at the Byron Nelson, and most recently was 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open. That started a run of 7-2-15 in his final 3 events of 2023. Whether he can start the season with the same fervor remains to be seen. The fact he is Californian born and raised might suggest some local comfort will be an assistance.

Austin Eckroat

We enter three long-shot selections in our American Express golf betting tips, with the bet weighting favoured towards top 20 and top 40 finishes.

Beginning that list is Austin Eckroat. Hailing from Oklahoma, this is the sophomore season for Eckroat who finished the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in 2nd place. It was a decent rookie season for him, where he finished in the Top 20 in 20% of his starts. Most notably, the 10th placed finish at the US Open would’ve caught the eye of many who were not already aware of this rising star.

That golf course should prove somewhat decent guidance to here. Unlike many other US Open venues, the tournament was also held in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The course was fairly generous off the tee, with driving distance still a requisite skill.

Further suggesting this may be a decent spot, Eckroat had his best finish of the season at the Byron Nelson. His runner-up finish there should be well correlated to what is needed for victory this week.

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value

We can probably keep things pretty simple with K.H. Lee. If the Byron Nelson is correlated to this tournament, K.H. Lee won that event for back-to-back victories in 2021 and 2022.

Adding to those claims, Lee’s recent run at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas has seen him finish 14-37-7 in his last three appearances there. Again, I’m not going to be overly critical of a mediocre record at this golf course. I take solace in the fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4 of 5 appearances, especially given that can be a hinderance to his performance.

Also eye-catching was Lee’s performance last week at the Sony Open. Although finishing 30th may not set the world alight, the irons looked back to their superb best sitting 6th for SG: APP. That was pleasing to see after not playing competitive golf since November. I believe he makes excellent value at 125/1.

Joseph Bramlett

Finally, I will wrap up my selections with a speculative bet on Joseph Bramlett.

Bramlett is 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the past 6 months, an impressive feat in a field with the likes of Scheffler, Cantlay, and Schauffele. It has long been the story for Bramlett that his excellent ball-striking can get left behind with the putter. That comes with some inherent risk at an event like this one. Much like Hossler, being born and going to college in California suggest that this type of surface may provide him with the best opportunity.

The desert form link at Byron Nelson is clear, where he finished 7th on debut followed by a 51st and 19th. Again, he doesn’t possess a stellar record here. However, he has made both previous cuts. Most pleasingly for our golf betting tips, he has putted at or above field average in 3/4 appearances at the American Express.

A 52nd last week was more promising than first viewed, considering it was the first event back after 6 months out with an undisclosed injury. That risk from both the rust from injury recovery and the putter do get built into the price, available at a whopping 200/1.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!

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American Express Golf Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf provides his American Express golf preview

Before we get into the American Express preview, a quick word on last week’s golf. It was another week of near misses for us on the PGA Tour at the Sony Open. All 7 of our betting selections for the week made the cut. We again had several contenders, with 3 players in the Top 10 for the second consecutive week. The most likely of those was Russell Henley, who looked a likely winner for much of Sunday. Sitting at -8 through 13 holes, he unfortunately got the speed wobbles to play his final 5 holes at +1 and miss a play-off by a single stroke. We cash a top 5 place on him at +625.

Our best value bet was Emiliano Grillo, selected at 80/1. He just missed a top 5 and cashed his top 20 at +350. Also included was Zac Blair in 30th, who was priced at 250/1. For DFS, he was $6,300 and just 3% owned. This provided a great salary saving and leverage on the rest of the field. He easily cashed our Top 40 bet at a generous +333. All promising signs from the golf ahead of our American Express preview.

Fact is, there is always an element of luck when it comes to any sport. Overall, the process is looking very sound after a fantastic first two weeks of the season. Eventually, we will see some big winners convert as the season unfolds and the more our selections remain in close contention. It’s a strong golf tournament this week, with a decent field rivalling those seen in designated events, but we will speak about some of the inherent volatility this week in our American Express preview.

Golf Course Analysis

The American Express is the first golf tournament we preview in what I’ve colloquially dubbed “course rotation season”. That will of course be followed by two other pro-am events, with the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to follow. This can prove a nightmare for many golf punters and DFS players alike.

Of the three courses on offer, La Quinta Country Club is both the shortest at 7,060 par 72 and the easiest for scoring. The majority of these holes are very short. There are just two par 4s over 450 yards, sitting at 454 and 469 yards which is pretty standard on the PGA Tour. The four par 5s are all under 547 yards and should be reachable in two for almost all of the field.

The other two golf courses at PGA West, the Nicklaus Stadium Course and the Pete Dye Stadium Course, are about 100 yards longer and a little more difficult. Driving distance does become more of a consideration at these courses. Par 5 scoring is essential on all three courses. Therefore, having a modicum of length of the tee is a real bonus. With three rounds played on these courses, with all golfers playing the Pete Dye Stadium Course again on Sunday, we have seen an uptick in correlation between driving distance and success at this event.

Then, of course, there is the infamous Jon Rahm quote where we referred to the tournament as a “putting contest”. There may have been some more fruitful language in the full quote. In some ways, he is completely right. A score of -25 to -30 will be required here. With that comes the unpredictability of this event. Therefore, it should be no surprise the average odds of the eventual winner have been a whopping 130/1.

The American Express Golf Course Comps

It should also be no surprise in our American Express Golf Preview that course history is not that influential at PGA West. Given the volatility that comes with this tournament, it follows that prior course form isn’t a fantastic predictor of performance. Of course, if a golfer has a great history at this event it can still play a factor in your decision. Conversely, I’m not going to be overly penal on a golfer if they don’t have a stellar history at this tournament.

The AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch could provide a good parallel. The tournament is on another desert course with equally low scoring. Since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, the tournament has been won at -25, -26, and -23.

Finally, the Shriners Children’s Open played in the desert of Las Vegas bears consideration. It is another low-scoring affair where you need to shoot -6 every day to remain in contention. The short par 4s on that course are a nice correlation. Additionally, as is the uptick in SG: Putting required at TPC Summerlin.

A short word on the weather. Obviously, with three different golf courses in-play there are a confluence of factors that make any developing weather edge more difficult to discern. In positive news, the winds look dead still for the first three days of the tournament. A little wind and rain may move into the region on Sunday. It will be insufficient to put any halt on the birdie-fest.

American Express Golf Betting Tips Preview

Thank you for reading my American Express Golf preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the American Express, read this article here.
Premium customers can also find these in the WinDaily Premium Discord in the golf bets channel.

A golf betting article will also follow, with player profiles of our selections. To be released approximately 6am ET on 18 January.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

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PGAPremium

The AMEX Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

We are back on the mainland. This week we are at The American Express tourney in sunny-flooding-mud sliding-on fire-earth quaking (pick one) California. This used to be the Bob Hope Classic. The Bob Hope had way more TV coverage than we will have this week. This week you get cameras on 1 course even though we have 3 courses. All this star power showing up to play golf. and you’ll get to see your favorite golfer one day out of the first three. It’s OK. If you’re like me, a golf degenerate, you’ll watch it just to sweat your entries and Showdown. Watching golf won’t make you much money. Win Daily Sports golf experts will. The AMEX Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

These are Pete Dye courses. The players (the cream of the crop is here) will play three different courses over their first three days. Then they will make a 54 hole cut and the survivors will play the Stadium course (the hardest) for the second time to crown a champion. The LaQuinta and the Niklaus courses are a breeze for these pros, the stadium will offer some resistance. 14 of the last 15 AMEX champions have played on at least one of the courses in Hawaii. The lone exception was Adam Long in 2019. Jon Rahm wasn’t to thrilled to play here. Before he bolted for 600-700 million he called this “a f*cking putting contest.” He’s pretty close to being right. The best players in the 100 yard bucket include Putnam, Palmer and Poston. The 200 yard bucket includes Kim, Suh, Hoge and Finau. McNealy, McCarthy and Montgomery are top putters on this surface.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit made the cut again at 1.8 % ownership to bring our record to 10-0 last ten. This is leverage gents, pure leverage. Our biscuit pick this week will be in the Win Daily Sports Discord Wednesday evening. Win Daily Sports is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild weather with the winds topping out at 8 MPH in the early afternoon Thursday with similar forecasts for Friday. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Wednesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the AMEX Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

Poston,  JT23.89100
Cantlay, Patrick23.610800
Scheffler, Scottie22.811400
Im, Sungjae22.310100
Cole, Eric18.98800
Schauffele, Xander17.510900
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 16.19900
Kirk, Chris13.49000
Montgomery, Taylor13.28100
Burns, Sam13.19400
Thomas, Justin12.99800
Hadwin, Adam12.68300
Jaeger, Stephan 12.67900
Lee, Min Woo12.49500
Putnam, Andrew12.38000
Clark, Wyndham12.28900
Finau, Tony11.79300
Bhatia, Akshay 11.48200
Davis, Cameron10.28400
Griffin, Ben10.27400
Van Rooyen, Erik10.17500
Smalley, Alex 9.67300
Kim, Si Woo9.58600
Schenk, Adam9.47600
Hossler, Beau9.27800
Taylor, Nick9.27500
Noren, Alexander8.97800
Rai, Aaron8.77700
Pendrith, Taylor 8.57800
Ryder, Sam8.47200
Fowler, Rickie7.79200
Hoge, Tom7.57600
Mitchell, Keith7.37700
Kizzire, Patton7.27000
Day, Jason6.99600
Murray, Grayson6.77100
Thompson, Davis 6.67600
Pavan, Matthieu6.67200
Hisatsune, Ryo6.37500
Kohles, Ben5.97100
Yuan, Carl5.96900
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan5.77300
Horschel, Billy5.47700
Lowry, Shane5.38700
Eckroat, Austin 5.17300
Schmid, Matti (Matthias)4.67200
Moore, Ryan4.66900
Duncan, Tyler4.66700
Suh, Justin 4.47400
Hodges, Lee 4.47100
Endycott, Harrison4.46200
Wu, Brandon 4.37300
Kim, Michael4.37100
Hadley, Chesson4.37100
Kucher, Matt3.97500
Lee, KH3.97400
Stevens, Sam3.97200
Bramlett, Joseph3.96800
MacIntyre, Robert 3.96800
Knapp, Jake3.86800
Ghim, Doug3.67000
McNealy, Maverick3.66900
Detry,Thomas 3.47600
Hubbard, Mark3.37200
Higgo, Garrick3.37000
Whaley, Vincent3.26900
Tosti, Alejandro3.26800
Lindheim, Nicholas2.87300
Berger, Daniel2.78000
Zalatoris,Will2.77900
Vegas, Jhonattan2.66600
Sigg, Greyson 2.47000
Wu, Dylan2.47000
Gotterup, Christopher2.46800
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.37000
Hall, Harry2.36800
Wallace, Matt2.27400
Gordon, Will2.26900
Stallings, Scott2.16700
NeSmith, Matthew2.16700
Merritt, Troy1.96500
Champ, Cameron1.86900
Bridgeman, Jacob1.86600
Ramey, Chad1.76600
Dahmen, Joel1.76600
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)1.76300
Semikawa, Taiga1.66800
Griffin, Lanto1.56600
Bjork, Alexander1.46900
Silverman, Ben1.46700
Long, Adam1.46600
Shelton, Robby1.36700
Young, Carson1.36300
Landry, Andrew1.36000
Tarren, Callum1.26500
Buckley, Hayden1.26400
Palmer, Ryan1.17100
Riley, Davis 1.16600
Lashley, Nate1.16600
Streelman, Kevin1.16400
Villegas, Camilo0.96500
Martin, Ben0.96400
Reavie, Chez0.86400
Kim, Chan0.86200
Blair, Zac0.76500
Coody, Pierceson 0.76200
Lower, Justin0.66400
Coody, Parker 0.66300
Furr, Wilson0.66200
Echavarria, Nico0.56500
Dougherty, Kevin0.56000
Kisner, Kevin0.56000
Hoffman, Charley0.46700
Lipsky, David0.46400
Novak, Andrew0.46300
Johnson, Zack0.46300
Baddeley, Aaron0.46300
Lingmerth, David0.46100
Valimaki,Sami 0.36500
Laird, Martin0.36300
Sloan, Roger0.36300
Snedeker, Brandt0.36100
Alexander, Tyson0.36100
Dumont de Chassart, Adrien0.26700
Dunlap,  Nick (a)0.26500
Barjon, Paul0.26300
Whitney, Tom0.26100
Dufner, Jason0.26000
Taylor, Ben0.26000
Greyserman, Max0.16400
Meissner, Mac 0.16400
Xiong, Norman0.16400
Phillips, Chandler0.16300
Crowe, Trace0.16200
Teater, Josh0.16200
Skinns, David0.16200
Springer, Hayden0.16100
Malnati, Peter0.16100
McCumber, Tyler0.16100
Burgoon, Bronson0.16100
Campos, Rafael0.16000
Gutschewski, Scott0.16000
Holmes, JB0.16000
Highsmith, Joe0.06500
Fishburn, Patrick0.06500
Hoey, Rico0.06200
Stanger, Jimmy0.06200
McCormick, Ryan0.06200
Barnes, Erik0.06200
Haas, Bill0.06100
Pereda, Raul0.06100
Hale Jr., Blaine0.06100
Lin, Yuxin 0.06000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
Pak, John 0.06000
Block, Michael0.06000

These AMEX Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:24 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

My picks for The AMEX

Top Tier: Xander

Mid Tier: Clark

Low Tier: Griffin

Out in Left Play: Smalley

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Sungjae IM

FR Leader: Griffin (Contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire. Again. and again. and again. Congrats for ANOTHER sweet profit placement last week at the Sony, as well as numerous top 5 and top 10 ‘s as well!

***** Parting Shots *****

Two women in their late eighties were having a cigarette outside their nursing home when it started to sprinkle from rain. Selma pulled out a condom, cut off the tip and placed it over her cigarette. Agatha asked what she was doing. Selma said she was putting a condom over her cigarette so it wouldn’t get wet. Agatha said where can I find them? Selma told her the drugstore was the best place. The next day Agatha, with the help of a walker, trudged into a crowded drugstore and bellowed out to the pharmacist that she needed condoms!! A rattled pharmacist motioned her to come over and he whispered to her- “what kind? what size? what color?” She said “Sonny, I don’t know, I just need it to cover a Camel.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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PGAPremium

The Sony Open Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

It’s here. The pure brutality known as the U.S. Open. The British Open, now just “The Open” with it’s unique style of links golf. The star studded PGA Championship. The 5th major, the Players, where Sawgrass gives you the iconic 17th island green. What costs 300 thousand to join (by invitation only) and 28,000 a year in dues and is only open 6 months a year? A former landscaping company using slave labor years later became the dream golf course of one Robert Trent (Bobby) Jones. It is called, appropriately, The Masters. The finest test of all golfers. Who knew the pinnacle of golf would become a funky green jacket? Is it April yet? All this and DFS golf tourneys to master as well. The Sony Open Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

We are still in Hawaii this week. The course is a remade Tom Doak design that’s 7000 yards and a par 70, considered a short course by standards. Without winds it becomes another birdie fest. The fairways are much smaller than last weeks runways at The Sentry. SGA is key in this tourney, along with putting. Lucas Glover, Gary Woodland, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Akshay Bhatia, Emilliano Grillo, Corey Conners and Tom Hoge check off at shots gained. Good putting includes Ben Taylor, Alex Noren, Mav McNealy and Andrew Putnam.

Recent Results

If someone asked you to pick a cheap golfer in the 6K salary range that no one wanted, by that I mean you have to pick someone 5% owned or lower to make the cut, and make that pick once a week for the entire year, would you think if you got it right 50 % of the time you’d being doing good? Half the time would boost your ROI. Last year my team got it right almost 90 % of the time. Nine times out of ten is pretty decent. No one else in this industry can touch that record. No one. The Frisky Risky Biscuit is back!!! Our biscuit pick this week will be in the Win Daily Sports Discord Wednesday evening. Win Daily Sports is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for calmer conditions Thursday morning and winds Thursday afternoon. The rest of the week should be mild. There has been a tremendous amount of rain hit the course this week. They vow to have it ready by 1st tee time so look for soft conditions early Thursday and lift clean and place will probably be added. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Wednesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the Sony Open Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Aberg, Ludvig22.810500
Harman, Brian22.69900
Poston,  JT22.39100
Conners, Corey20.99800
Kirk, Chris20.29500
Henley, Russell19.39600
Cole, Eric18.49700
An, Byeong18.18700
Svensson, Adam15.67700
Hatton, Tyrrell14.910300
Kim, Si Woo14.88600
Rose, Justin14.68200
Putnam, Andrew14.47500
Davis, Cameron14.28500
Fitzpatrick, Mathew13.610200
Todd, Brendon13.37900
Kucher, Matt12.17800
English, Harris11.98300
Theegala, Sahith10.910000
McCarthy, Denny10.98400
Matsuyama, Hideki10.69000
Bradley, Keegan10.38000
Glover, Lucas9.67700
Jaeger, Stephan 9.48100
Rai, Aaron8.97500
Hadwin, Adam8.78000
Spaun, JJ8.17600
Bhatia, Akshay 7.97800
Kohles, Ben7.47000
List, Luke7.37500
Taylor, Nick7.17200
Hoge, Tom6.97600
Griffin, Ben6.97400
Noren, Alexander6.67900
Van Rooyen, Erik6.47200
Eckroat, Austin 6.37000
Grillo, Emiliano5.87400
Buckley, Hayden5.86600
Suh, Justin 4.87400
Mitchell, Keith4.77500
Hisatsune, Ryo4.67100
Montgomery, Taylor4.57100
Zalatoris,Will4.49300
Kitayama, Kurt 4.37300
Rodgers, Patrick3.97300
Smalley, Alex 3.97100
Blair, Zac3.96200
Dumont de Chassart, Adrien3.87300
Horschel, Billy3.77400
Bjork, Alexander3.37200
Hubbard, Mark3.27000
Duncan, Tyler3.26600
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)3.17000
MacIntyre, Robert 3.16900
Thompson, Davis 3.07000
Woodland, Gary2.97100
McNealy, Maverick2.96800
Kisner, Kevin2.86100
Power, Seamus2.76900
Kim, Michael2.66900
NeSmith, Matthew2.66500
Pendrith, Taylor 2.47200
Simpson, Webb2.46800
Kanaya, Takumi2.46700
Moore, Ryan2.46700
Dahmen, Joel2.46300
Reavie, Chez2.46200
Lee, KH2.36900
Kizzire, Patton2.36800
Sigg, Greyson 2.36700
Echavarria, Nico2.36300
Ghim, Doug2.26800
Ramey, Chad2.26500
Wallace, Matt2.17300
Villegas, Camilo2.16500
Lipsky, David1.96600
Hardy, Nick1.87100
Palmer, Ryan1.86900
Lashley, Nate1.86500
Schmid, Matti (Matthias)1.76700
Knapp, Jake1.66700
Bramlett, Joseph1.66400
Wu, Dylan1.56600
Whaley, Vincent1.46900
Riley, Davis 1.46800
Cink, Stewart1.46700
Wu, Brandon 1.46600
Martin, Ben1.46300
Stevens, Sam1.36300
Norrman, Vincent1.27200
Tarren, Callum1.26400
Young, Carson1.26200
Yuan, Carl1.26200
Pavon, Matthieu1.16700
Tosti, Alejandro1.16600
Gordon, Will0.96500
Semikawa, Taiga0.96500
Hall, Harry0.96400
Coody, Pierceson 0.96300
Merritt, Troy0.96100
Champ, Cameron0.86500
Lingmerth, David0.86000
Bridgeman, Jacob0.76500
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)0.76300
Griffin, Lanto0.76200
Higgo, Garrick0.66800
Stallings, Scott0.66400
Novak, Andrew0.66300
Lower, Justin0.66200
Barjon, Paul0.66100
Katsuragawa, Yuto0.66000
Vegas, Jhonattan0.56600
Valimaki, Sami 0.56400
Johnson, Zack0.56200
Malnati, Peter0.56100
Pan, CT0.56100
Hoffman, Charley0.46400
Alexander, Tyson0.46000
Larson, Hunter0.46000
Streelman, Kevin0.36300
Shelton, Robby0.36100
Laird, Martin0.36100
Snedeker, Brandt0.26200
Silverman, Ben0.26200
Phillips, Chandler0.26100
Taylor, Ben0.26000
Akana, Blaze0.26000
Kim, Chan0.16400
Murray, Grayson0.16200
Hirata, Kensei0.16000
Streb, Robert0.16000
McCumber, Tyler0.16000
Greyserman, Max0.06300
Coody, Parker 0.06300
Xiong, Norman0.06200
Teater, Josh0.06100
Stanger, Jimmy0.06100
Trainer, Martin0.06100
Skinns, David0.06100
Hoey, Rico0.06000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
Nagano, Ryutaro0.06000
Iwasaki, Aguri0.06000

These Sony Open Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:29 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

My picks for The Sony Open

Top Tier: Hatton

Mid Tier: Glover

Low Tier: Putnam

Out in Left Play: Kohles

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Poston

FR Leader: Glover (Contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire. Again. Congrats for ANOTHER 60-1 placement last week at the Sentry, as well as numerous top 5 and top 10 ‘s as well!

***** Parting Shots *****

One of the prayers heard over the holidays:

Dear lord, we sure do miss grandma. We are all sitting here thinking how strange it is for her not to be here this year. We are comforted to know that she’s looking down on us………………….waiting for the stair lift repairman to get here.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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