Over the last ten years, golf one and done contests have continued to surge in popularity. It is easy to see why. One and done leagues are easy to understand, you are rarely ever out of the competition, and it provides a fun way to follow your golf season. Increasingly, these contests have seen the ability to play for real money and bigger prizes. This year, golf one and done competitions have a few factors to take into account when making your decisions. With the majority of competitions starting at next week’s Sony Open, it seemed the optimal time to compile your ultimate guide to the 2024 One and Done golf season!
Most readers have likely already played in a one and done before, but it is probably worthy a few lines to recap how these contests work. In a one and done competition, players will usually pick one golfer for each tournament during the season. Once a golfer has been selected, they are then unavailable to be selected again during the year. Hence, the name “one and done”. Players are rewarded with prize money earned by the golfer in the tournament. The player with the most accumulated money across the season is the winner.
Unlike other fantasy golf contests, you are rarely completely out of a one and done competition. One big win, even late in the season, can give you enough prize money to catapult you back into contention. It provides a fun way to stay engaged with golf throughout the season.
The first action you should take is learning the rules of your contest. You should obviously know at which tournament your contest begins. But, just as importantly, you need to be aware what is the last tournament when your competition ends. You would be astounded how many times I hear of OAD players left still holding an elite player because they thought they would use them in the Tour Championship, but their season ended at the BMW Championship. Formulate a plan with how you will approach the year, and you will already be ahead of many of your competitors.
Finally, for smaller One and Done golf leagues you can play safer as you will need less money accumulated to take out a top prize. The larger the league, the more risks and money you will need to earn over the season to win.
Once you know the general rules for your one and done, I highly recommend mapping out your season. Specifically, not all tournaments are built equally in terms of the prize pool available. Additionally, you don’t want to be left trying to fit 5 elite golfers into 4 tournaments at the end of the year. I’m not suggesting you should know exactly where you will play each golfer at the beginning of the season. But plot a rough plan of how you will approach the season.
Key to this are the signature events, majors, and playoffs. A typical season will consist of 31 tournaments (Sony Open until the BMW Championship, with Zurich Classic excluded). But not all events are built equal. The 7 signature events, The Players, the 4 majors, The Players, and the 2 playoff events account for 65% of the total money available from the One and Done golf season. Individual prizes are roughly double what they are in the other events. Pick the winner in a couple of these events and you are already on your way to a successful One and Done golf season!
Obviously, we are going to want to use our best golfers during these events. It wouldn’t make sense to burn a Rory McIlroy at the Valero Texas Open when your potential return is so much greater elsewhere. The signature events do have one positive: they are all no cut events, so you are guaranteed a payday.
Then there is the question of LIV Golf players. Unless a miraculous deal is finalised and they’re granted immediate access to the remainder of the PGA Tour season, they will only be available for selection in the 4 majors. Very few have guaranteed qualification, although they can still qualify for the US Open and The Open Championship.
Next, I have formed three lists of players. Firstly, elite stud players you will absolutely want to use in signature events, playoffs, or majors. These 6 golfers are the only golfers who average over +2 SG: Total over the field for the last 12 months.
Elite Studs
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
You can likely add Max Homa to that list, who was just under +2 SG: Total for the past year but was +2.23 SG: Total over the past 6 months.
The only other golfer to earn over +2 SG: Total for the last 12 months is, of course, Jon Rahm. He makes the next list of LIV Elite Studs. In my opinion, you want to use at least two of these in the majors (Jon Rahm plus Brooks Koepka) and probably three (Cam Smith).
LIV Elite Studs
Jon Rahm
Brooks Koepka
Cam Smith
Dustin Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann?
Those first 5 golfers have guaranteed entry to all four majors, but I may also look to another option in Joaquin Niemann. However, he only currently has access to The Open Championship following his win in the Australian Open. He could still qualify for the US Open through normal qualification process.
Overall, this forms a strong base to begin planning your One and Done golf season.
Finally, there are the sub-elite golfers. These are solid picks who I more than likely want to play at some point during the One and Done golf season. I will possibly use some in the signature events, particularly at courses where they have good history or if they hit hot form during the season. Otherwise, they are solid plays in tournaments outside the signature events where they will often go off towards the top of betting markets.
Sub-Elite (ranked in order of preference)
You can find a full list of the 50 golfers with guaranteed signature event starts in 2024 here.
Certainly, this list is a lot more fluid. As you move further down that board, more questions will come into play such as injury concerns or regaining form. However, that will reveal itself as the season goes on. We can remain dynamic with these plays and slot them in later during the season, including any other golfers who inevitably emerge as the One and Done golf year unfolds.
Another factor in your decision making should be the course on offer each week. Of course, different golfers have various aspects of a game which are a strength for them. You would prefer not to use a bomber at a tight fiddly course where accuracy is at a premium, such as Sedgefield Country Club. Likewise, you wouldn’t to use a shorter hitter at a course like Quail Hollow, where long drivers of the golf ball have had a distinct advantage.
Additionally, when planning your One and Done golf season you want to consider course history. There are always a few new golf courses every season. Other courses have remained on the PGA Tour for quite some time. This has seen the rise of many course experts. Players like Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship or Webb Simpson at Sedgefield come to mind. Clearly, some golfers are going to find a course where they just feel comfortable or the tournament holds special meaning.
However, this does come with a word of caution. In an age where information and golf data is now readily available, many other One and Done golf managers are going to have the same idea. You want to play your position in the league and, usually, avoid any massive spikes in golfer ownership you see develop.
That segues nicely into a conversation on ownership. I have to give credit to my friend Rick Gehman for the inspiration to this segment. He put together this excellent video on One and Done golf player deployment and the data was astounding.
I found it amazing that Rory McIlroy had already been used by 50% of users by mid-March. Scottie Scheffler had been used by nearly 60% of player by The Masters! It raises a really good way to make yourself different. By keeping a few of your elite studs towards later in the season, you are creating leverage on your competitors.
Obviously, you could get unlucky and a high owned player ends up spiking a win for the masses. But you are nearly always better to avoid the chalk. The same applies in the regular PGA Tour stops. There will certainly be circumstances where a player like Russell Henley ends up the betting favourite, with a huge ownership percentage in a lower tier event where the fields are weaker. Again, you should probably avoid the chalk in such circumstances.
In larger leagues, you might want to consider some riskier plays at the beginning of the year. If both Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth look healthy, you could consider playing them at say the Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage for example. Playing some of the bigger names early who have either been injured or struggling for form comes with risks. But the majority of players will feel the same, wanting to save them until they feel a bit more certain of their status. Should a riskier but low-owned choice spike a win for you, you’ve set up your season nicely with your studs still in hand where others have already burned them.
Finally, you want to play your situation as the season develops. If you are front-running, you can play a bit safer. Take a risk adverse approach and let the pack chase you. Again, you don’t want to be playing the obvious mega-chalk. But you don’t need to roll the dice looking for some obscure option.
Conversely, if you find yourself significantly off the lead, you will need to take some risks. You’ll want to still save your studs until others have burned them. But you may wish to look for some alternative plays later in the season in the higher money signature events, deviating from your original plan. You would be hoping to get lucky, picking a winner that few others are on. Again, this is particularly true for larger contests with many other entries.
And, of course, we are talking about golf. Anything can happen! Players will get injured. Some will be badly out of form. New, unexpected talent will emerge and suddenly become popular must plays. Remaining dynamic and prepared to change your original plan is essential to adapting to the situation you face at the time.
This doesn’t supersede the golden rules though. Use all your studs; you don’t want to be left holding both Hovland and Scheffler in the last week of your contest. Make your picks every week; having a non-starter is criminal and obviously hinders your chances. And never give up; there are some huge purses to play for at the end of the season and anything can happen!
What follows next is a complete breakdown of every tournament this season.
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As we enter into an overview of the year ahead, I’ll reiterate that this should not be seen as the sole way to approach your One and Done golf season. Your individual strategy will depend on many different factors. I am also writing this on January 6th. So, if you plan on bookmarking this page and referring back to it throughout the year, take this into account as invariably the PGA Tour will develop and change.
I’ve broken down each course, giving a very brief outlook on the type of course and what style golfer may benefit. Then, I have included some potential players you may want to consider deploying at each event. Again, take this with a grain of salt. It remains unclear how many additional PGA Tour tournaments those who have qualified for the Signature events will end up playing.
Course: Waialae Country Club
Purse: $8.3m
Potential Players: Corey Conners, Justin Rose, Brian Harman
This narrow course is the polar opposite of the Plantation Course at Kapalua, host of The Sentry. Driving accuracy is at a premium here, with tree-lined fairways and very thick rough adding to the challenge. Winds are a defense here as well, with SG: ATG ranking heavily as a predictive factor. It is an advantage to have played the week prior at The Sentry, as is prior form here which ranks 2nd only to Augusta National in strength of correlation.
Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course & La Quinta
Purse: $8.4m
Potential Players: Adam Hadwin, Cam Davis, Andrew Putnam, Tom Hoge
The first tournament of course rotation season. In this case, using three courses before finishing with an additional round at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. This is the tournament which Jon Rahm famously labelled as a “Piece of sh*t f*cking setup. Putting contest week”, before winning the event in 2023. Scoring is low and you’ll need to find a golfer who can reach close to -25 to -30 if they want to secure the win. As such, it tends to be a volatile event.
Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South and North Courses)
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Sungjae Im
Our second in the course rotation trifecta. Fortunately, in this case three rounds are played on the South Course with the North Course only played for one of the first two rounds prior to the cut. The North Course is substantially the easier of the two. This is a bomber heavy course and a strong driver of the golf ball is a great asset.
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Max Homa
Our final course rotation tournament of three and our first signature event in the regular One and Done rota. PGA Tour were keen to have this as a signature event not just because of the iconic Pebble Beach course, but also the pro-am element and the opportunity to look after their sponsors. Again, three of the rounds will be at one course (Pebble Beach) with just the sole round at Spyglass Hill. Pebble Beach can’t be overpowered and sees a disproportionate number of shots from 100-150 yards as a result. Given some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, alongside SG: APP you’ll need a sharp short-game here.
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Purse: $8.8m
Potential Players: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley
I am intrigued to see what happens with the WM Phoenix Open this year. Colloquially known as the People’s Open, the event sees itself demoted to a regular season event and sandwiched between two signature events. Whether this results in a reduced quality of field and who takes this as a rest week remains to be seen. The course is a well-rounded test of a golfer’s game and has typically seen the cream rise to the top. It’ll be interesting to see how much of that crop shows up. If Scheffler is the only big name that returns looking for his three-peat he probably wins, although you should keep him in your stash for a bigger payday. Let others blow their ownership and look for greener pastures. With rather large greens at over 7,000 sq ft, don’t discount a solid putter here along with sharp iron play.
Course: Riviera Country Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay
Along with The Sentry host the Plantation course at Kapalua, this is one of the best form guides for Augusta National on Tour. Jon Rahm of course won both tournaments before slipping on the green jacket in 2023. You may want to jump on the future odds for the winner at The Masters as they will inevitable dive after this event. Part of that is down to the undulating nature of this course. You will rarely have a flat approach shot, and it is skill with your irons which will prove decisive.
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Purse: $8.1m
Potential Players: Akshay Bhatia, Brandon Wu, Alex Smalley
This birdie-fest is the sole tropical course for the One and Done golf season. Paspalum greens are pretty polarizing, their slow pace not suiting all golfers and seeing some paspalum specialists developing. Brandon Wu is a key example, finishing 2nd and 3rd here and also holding a 3rd and 7th at the Puerto Rico Open. Driving distance is a big asset here, with the average yardage for par 4s and par 5s the longest on the PGA Tour averaging 495 yards.
Defending champion Tony Finau is likely to be heavily owned at this event in a very weak field. There will be few top players travelling South of the border. If Kurt Kitayama, Patrick Rodgers, or Beau Hossler end up starting they are worthy of consideration.
Course: PGA National
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood
We begin the Florida swing with what was formerly known as the Honda Classic. This is a difficult course with a single figure winner common, especially if the weather plays a factor. It’s perhaps unsurprising this has been a strong predictor of success at The Open. 2023 Open runner-up Sepp Straka has an excellent record here, as does former Open champion Shane Lowry.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Cam Young
Another signature event, and a tournament where Rory McIlroy is often deployed by One and Done golf managers. If you can avoid the temptation, you should have some leverage opportunities later in the season. This is a ball-strikers golf course, with both distance and accuracy positively correlated to success. Approach over 200 yards is also key, with the longest collection of par 3s of the regular PGA Tour courses.
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Purse: $25.0m
Potential Players: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim
The single largest paycheck in the One and Done golf year. One of the highest correlations between driving accuracy and success of any tournament on the PGA Tour, it is easy to understand why there are such strong links between here and Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club. Scheffler is likely heavily owned, being the defending champion in the biggest purse of the season, but there are other great options available.
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
Purse: $8.4m
Potential Players: Sam Burns, Aaron Rai, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas
Many One and Done managers will simply revert to Sam Burns here, depending on whether he is playing decent golf at the time. Holding a record of 1-1-6 in his last three starts, it is easy to understand why. You should consider your position in your One and Done golf league when making that decision. The course greets players with some of the narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour, combined with incredibly thick rough and tree-lined fairways. This makes it one of the top 3 most difficult driving courses of the season. There is a disproportionate number of shots from over 200 yards, a reflection of golfers clubbing down to avoid trouble off the tee.
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Purse: $9.1m
Potential Players: Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, Patrick Rodgers, Beau Hossler
This tournament has moved from the fall to the regular season, so it will be interesting to see if the course plays any different. We only have three years worth of data to go off here, but Total Driving looks to be a fairly decent predictor of success. Markedly, there are an unusual 5 par 3s on this course and a number of them are short. That makes this 7,432 yard par 70 course play even longer, with 5 par 4s over 490 yards and the 3 par 5s averaging a massive 596 yards each.
Course: TPC San Antonio
Purse: $9.2m
Potential Players: Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Aberg, Chris Kirk, Tyrrell Hatton
The PGA Tour reduce their carbon footprint just a smidge by remaining in Texas for another week, in a rare dose of common sense. The course plays shorter than what it says on the tin, with firm fairways seeing large runout from drives. The rough ranks as the least penal on the PGA Tour. Although the greens are large, they are multi-tiered meaning the actual target area is substantially reduced. Alongside approach, SG: ATG is a strong predictor of success. As the penultimate event to The Masters, it may attract some names who are seeking a warm-up before hitting Augusta National. Determining how focused those players actually are on winning this event over fine-tuning their game is a minefield.
Course: Augusta National
Purse: $18.0m
Potential Players: Cam Smith, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm
We reach the first major of the year and likely the first decision about which LIV Golf player we should deploy. I would hazard a guess that Jon Rahm is heavily deployed here as defending champion. You may be better to save him for the next major, which should also suit. Albeit, I’m not too worried about ownership on the other three obvious LIV golfers. The likes of Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Ludvig Aberg will also attract selection. In short, keep an eye on whether Cam Smith’s form improves throughout the year, with last year’s runner-up Brooks Koepka an option, and previous winner Dustin Johnson if you would like to get contrarian.
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton
The tour attempts to keep the attention of casual golf fans by placing a signature event directly after the most watched tournament in golf. The merits of this can be debated, but it is nice to shake off the hangover from the first major quickly. In contrast to last week, this short and narrow test is the near opposite of Augusta National. Therefore, the course produces some of the lowest driving distance numbers on tour. With very small greens a combination of driving accuracy, precise iron play, and short-game for the inevitable missed GIR is key here. Hopefully, a large percentage of One and Done golf managers have already used Jordan Spieth and you can select a player who has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two appearances here.
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Purse: $9.5m
Potential Players: Eric Cole, Justin Rose, Harris English
The tournament where K.H. Lee won back-to-back titles in 2021 and 2022, earning him the nickname “TPC Lee”. Jason Day then completed his own double in 2023, with some 13 years in between drinks. One unique aspect of the course is the zoysia grass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. Driver is not that important on this course. Someone like Eric Cole comes to mind, who is actually a surprisingly poor driver. Instead, we see a big uptick in long approach shots. 1/3rd of all approach shots are over 200 yards, with 2/3rd of approach shots are from over 150 yards.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Rory McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, Ludvig Aberg
Quail Hollow is a big boy golf course. Sitting at over 7,500 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longest tests on the PGA Tour. Driving distance is essential here, as seen by Wyndham Clark when winning for us at 80/1 in the lead-up to his U.S. Open victory. 75% of approach shots will be from over 150 yards. Putting from 5-15 feet is ranked 15th most difficult on the Tour, with putts from 15+ feet ranking 7th on tour. Hopefully, three-time champion Rory McIlroy has already been burned by a large number of managers and you can deploy him at a track he loves.
Course: Valhalla Golf Club
Purse: $17.5m
Potential Players: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson
The majors return to Valhalla 10 years after Rory McIlroy triumphed here in 2014. If you didn’t use him the preceding week at the Wells Fargo Championship, you can deploy him here. In fact, that may preferable with invariably even more players having used him. However, this is again another rare opportunity to deploy one of the LIV Golf players. Being a Nicklaus design, parallels might be drawn to Muirfield, where Jon Rahm is a past champion. He would’ve won back-to-back there had it not been for the unfortunate withdrawal after three rounds with COVID when leading by 6.
Course: Colonial Country Club
Purse: $9.1m
Potential Players: Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Russell Henley
If Jordan Spieth hasn’t been used yet or shown continued struggles with the wrist injury, One and Done golf managers might just auto-click his name here. It is perhaps unsurprising then that the course shares links with Harbour Town, as Spieth has won on both courses. Each is a fiddly, positional course where accuracy off the tee between overhanging branches and a sharp short game is required.
Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Purse: $9.4m
Potential Players: Brian Harman, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam, Adam Hadwin
The RBC Canadian Open returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club, which most recently hosted this event in 2019. Outside leader Rory McIlroy, the leaderboard was dotted with accurate drivers. 7 of the top 10 on the leaderboard finished in the top 20 of driving accuracy for the week. Additionally, 8 of the Top 10 that week were in the top 10 for SG: Putting at the tournament. Find the fairway and make your putts looks to be the most reliable pathway to success.
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
The Memorial kicks-off a big run off three large purses on the tour. In fact, 37% of the total money on offer will be awarded in the next 11 weeks (even more if your contest includes the Tour Championship). Another reminder why you should never give up on your One and Done golf contest right until the end of the year! Accuracy is more important than distance here, as is excellent approach play, and an aptitude for putting on bentgrass.
Course: Pinehurst No. 2
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Jon Rahm
The penultimate major of the year. We return to a venue where Kaymer trounced the field in 2014, fellow Kiwi Michael Campbell held off Tiger Woods in 2005, and Payne Stewart won in 1999. This course is a demon, typically delivering an incredibly tight affair and very high scoring. In fact, only three golfers have played this course under-par in three renditions. Sounds like the kind of course where the relentless attitude of Koepka could be beneficial, or the hot putter of Cam Smith could keep him in contention.
Course: TPC River Highlands
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Brian Harman
A big three weeks concludes at the Travelers, again strategically placed by the PGA Tour in the hope of keeping the armchair golf fans engaged. Driving accuracy rules king at TPC River Highlands, as highlighted by Brian Harman and Zac Blair just behind Keegan Bradley last time out. We had unluckily selected Zac Blair the prior tournament at 1000/1 before he withdrew with injury, only to return here with that runner-up finish. The course requires a sharp wedge game, with a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards. Other Pete Dye courses are a good guide here, with TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club both offering accuracy heavy tests.
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Purse: $9.2m
Potential Players: Adam Scott, Taylor Moore, Ryan Fox, Nicolai Hojgaard
Off the back of those three big tournaments, don’t be surprised to see many of the best golfers give this one a miss. Consequently, you could see a lot of the top of the betting board available for selection. Basically, you are likely best to keep an eye on projected use for this week and do the opposite. More than 50% of all approach shots will occur between 50-150 yards. This is key given shots on longer par 3s and the par 5s will naturally require a longer approach shot. I put Nicolai Hojgaard up at 80/1 here in 2023, although I doubt you will see that number this time around.
Course: TPC Deere Run
Purse: $7.8m
Potential Players: Ryan Fox, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover
This tournament can prove quite volatile and could be renamed as the “John Deere wedge putter birdie-fest”. The tournament has required a score better than 20-under in 11 of the last 14 editions. The other three were won at -18 or -19 with high winds in at least one round. A huge number of approach shots will fall between 100-150 yards. Driving accuracy is helpful not because the course is overly narrow, but because you simply must give yourself as many birdie looks within 10 feet as possible. That’s easier to achieve from the short stuff.
Course: The Renaissance Club
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann?
We make our way to the spiritual home of golf and a foray into links golf. Overall, links golf requires a unique set of skills and those with that experience hold an edge. This event is commingled with the DP World Tour, allowing an opportunity to play some golfers who might not have an opportunity to during other tournaments. I do wonder whether we might see Joaquin Niemann here, who managed to play some DP World Tour events not being a former member and receiving a sponsor exemption. Robert MacIntyre is likely a very popular selection and should probably be avoided, following a remarkable tournament last year where Rory McIlroy snatched victory in near impossible circumstances.
Course: Royal Troon
Purse: $16.5m
Potential Players: Joaquin Niemann, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood
The final chance to snag a major in 2024, The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon. This will be it’s 10th time hosting, with the most recent of those being in 2016. Many will see Tyrrell Hatton and Rory McIlroy finishing in 5th placed here that year. As a result, read that in the context that this was an epic major between Henrik Stenson (-20) and Phil Mickelson (-17). Stenson finished 15 strokes ahead of Hatton and McIlroy, with their closer competitor being J.B. Holmes in 3rd (-6). If Niemann is in reasonable form, you should consider playing him here. His low ball-flight with irons has always looked suited for links golf if the winds blow.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Purse: $8.3m
Potential Players: Tony Finau, Ryan Fox, Adrian Meronk
With players travelling back from The Open Championship, expect many who played the week prior to be resting. If not, jet-lag can always be a factor. Particularly if they have contended the week prior, I would avoid any such player this week. The course is long enough at 7,431 yards and par 71. Rough is fairly non-existent, but water on 15 of the 18 holes keeps golfers honest. You can perhaps rely on Tony Finau being used by other players by this point, arriving at a course where he has never finished worse than 28th in 5 looks with form of 23-3-28-1-7.
Course: Sedgefield Country Club
Purse: $7.9m
Potential Players: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley
A week’s break as the golfers head to the Olympic Games, played at Le Golf National. Most of the One and Done golf contests will miss that event, as there is no prize purse given putting a price on a gold medal is rather difficult.
The PGA Tour returns at the Wyndham Championship, which is always an exciting event as the last chance saloon to make the playoffs. As mentioned in The Players preview, this course and TPC Sawgrass share one of the strongest correlations you will see between two golf courses all season. Those who have not used Tom Kim likely deploy him here (should he play), so monitor usage and divert to golfers like Sungjae Im or Russell Henley. Webb Simpson likely attracts attention given his absurd course history here, at a course he loves so much he named his daughter after a hotel chain.
Course: TPC Southwind
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa
The first playoff event and hopefully you find yourself having ridden a little luck and good planning to be in contention. TPC Southwind has hosted some form of tournament since 1989. First as the FedEx St Jude Classic, then the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, before becoming the FedEx St Jude Championship. Make sure you use course history over tournament history to have access to the most data possible.
Again, those rare zoysia grass fairways show up here. Overall, the course is a tricky test with a winning score in the low to mid teens common. Water is heavily involved on 11 holes and the rough is pretty gnarly. Driving distance is not really a factor, but accuracy is an asset as is sharp approach play. 78% of all approach shots occur between 100-200 yards here.
Course: Castle Pines Golf Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Sungjae Im
The 2nd playoff event sees a reduction to the last 50 players and a return to Castle Pines, last sighted on the PGA Tour for The International tournament from 1986-2006. Unfortunately, that was before the age of big data and strokes gained was not recorded. Other Nicklaus designs like Muirfield could be a useful guide. On paper, the course looks a long test but bear in mind this is played at altitude in Colorado.
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Purse: TBC
Potential Players: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland
Finally, if your One and Done contest includes the Tour Championship some extra strategy is required. Controversially, the Tour Championship is handicapped including starting strokes based on the number of FedEx Cup points that players have earned throughout the year. I understand the appeal in having the person who lifts the trophy also being the one who wins the FedEx Cup. However, the DP World Tour handle this just fine and golf fans are smart enough to be able to handle concurrent leaderboards.
Basically, with the starting strokes you may be best to hold back an elite stud to deploy here. Obviously, the vast majority of players will have used them by this point and you are giving yourself a huge advantage. Scottie Scheffler makes the most sense as barring injury he should be in the top 4 players and, therefore, have one of the lower starting scores. However, Rory McIlroy does have an excellent record at East Lake. Monitor how the season develops and, having checked whether your contest includes this tournament, keep back an elite player who is highly likely to finish towards the top of the FedEx Cup leaderboard entering this event.
And thus ends another PGA Tour season, and a 6,500 word article. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, that you have a very successful One and Done golf year, and a big thank you again for all your support for DeepDiveGolf.
The PGA Tour is back with #TheSentry and our team of experts are here too to help you draft the best DFS line-ups to start 2024 with a bang!
Before getting into our betting tips for The Sentry, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.
There are a few notables worth discussing first. Collin Morikawa holds clear appeal. Obviously, he has strong links to Hawaii and has never finished worse than 7th in 4 starts at The Sentry. However, the spectacular capitulation to hand Jon Rahm victory here could well play on his mind. I also held concerns about his ability to play in the wind, which is expected to get reasonably strong on two days of play. Therefore, he misses out on the Sentry betting tips.
Justin Rose held appeal, given his strong Masters record and excellent performances at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Similarly, Keegan Bradley was considered before his poor record at both Augusta National and Albany alongside poor showings in his last two Sentry starts saw others preferred.
Updated 8 Jan 8:30PM ET
Jordan Spieth
3rd – Top 5 at +625
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Tony Finau
38th
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Sungjae Im – The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite
5th – Top 5 at +825 (reduced to -117 due dead-heat)
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Sepp Straka
12th – Top 20 at +162
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +162 (William Hill)
Sahith Theegala – The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value
2nd – Top 5 at +2000 and Top 20 at +190
1pt E/W +8000 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +180 (William Hill)
We also gave out Theegala as First-Round Leader on the PGA Draftcast, which hit at 60/1!
Tune in on YouTube Tuesdays at 9PM ET as we give out our favourite DFS plays and free FRL bets.
It is likely fair to say that Spieth has been out of sorts for a couple of season now. In 2022, he finished in the Top 5 in just 13% of his starts and only really claimed victory at the RBC Heritage as others crumbled around him. Three of those were on our card that week, but I digress.
2023 was a winless season, but did see some improvement finishing in the top 5 in 21% of his starts. No doubt, he will be eager to begin 2024 on a positive note. The Plantation Course at Kapalua could prove the perfect antidote.
We spoke about the correlation from The Masters to The Sentry in our tournament preview article. And, we obviously know what Spieth does at Augusta National. His 2nd on debut was quickly followed by victory the following year and another runner up. He has added another two 3rd place finishes and a 4th in 2023. That means he has finished 4th or better in 60% of his starts at The Masters.
It is no surprise then that he won this tournament in 2016. Again, that came after a runner-up finish on first sight. He finished 9th or better in his first 4 starts here. Falling off the boil in 2022 and 2023 (21st and 13th respectively) coincides with his general regression in form over that period.
Of promise though was a return to form in December, finishing 6th at the Hero World Challenge. A mediocre 71 in the 3rd round put paid to his chances there, but it was a glimmer of hope that Spieth could kick-start 2024 in the best way possible.
Next in our Sentry betting tips is Tony Finau. Given his propensity to be a perennial close finisher, he had been referred to as “T2 Tony” by some. Finau broke free of the shackles of that reputation in 2022.
Back-to-back wins that year were followed by a 2023 season where he again got over the finish line twice. The latter of those victories came at the Mexico Open over absent defending champion Jon Rahm. Vidanta Vallarta is far from the worst comp course. The wide open fairways, long irons, and low scoring are all common to what is required at Plantation.
Finau already holds a 9th and 7th at this tournament and boasts 3 top 10s at the Masters, where he has never missed the cut. However, the form at the Hero World Challenge is what really caught my eye. He holds a record around Albany of 2-10-7-7-4. That most recent 4th included holding the first round lead, with another 67 coming in the final round.
Much of the final result will come down to Finau’s ability to get the putter rolling. But, when he does so, he now wins golf tournaments. The putter again looked to be leaning towards the right direction towards the end of 2023, and a fast start to the season would not surprise at a course where he has always looked a likely sort.
I really like the number currently available around Sungjae Im this week. Sungjae was 5th on his first look at this course, a tournament where he also lead the field in SG: tee-to-green and actually lost strokes putting. He has subsequently finished 8th and 13th in his other two appearances here.
Of course, Im has also flashed at Augusta National. The runner-up finish on Masters debut was obviously eye-catching, but he has then gone on to add an 8th and 16th place finish there as well. He has only played the Hero World Challenge once, finishing 8th in 2022. There, he was able to overcome the 3rd worst opening round (74) to continually improve throughout the week.
Sungjae Im has always been a golfer who has promised more. It is perhaps surprising that he is still only 25 years old. For context, he is just 18 months older than Ludvig Aberg. The end of 2023 held much promise for Im. Outside a lackluster Tour Championship, he quietly finished 14th or better in his final 5 tournaments of the year. 2024 could well be the year he kicks on to bigger things.
Sepp Straka has cemented himself as one of the ultimate boom-or-bust plays in golf. When looking at longer odds, that is always going to hold some appeal and more-so in a reduced field size.
It was another fantastic year in 2023, most notable for winning the John Deere Classic before finishing runner-up at The Open Championship.
The Masters record is just ok, although he has made the cut in his two starts there. He arrives here off another recent runner-up finish in the Hero World Challenge at Albany. He overcame a mediocre even par opening round there, quickly finding his feet and finishing with an excellent 64 in the final round. Similar can be said for his single appearance here, where he finished 68-67 over the weekend and improved in each round.
Additionally, in that sole Sentry appearance he was 2nd in the field for SG: Approach. And it is that which we are buying into; his absolute ability to get red-hot with his irons and putter on his day.
Another longer odds selection with seemingly endless upside to close out our Sentry betting tips. Sahith Theegala secured his inaugural PGA Tour win towards the tail-end of 2023. It was a victory that many saw coming, with his notably aggressive style of play lending itself to top finishes or ending at the bottom half of the field.
Theegala struggled at this course in 2023. However, a deeper dive into his numbers that week reveal that he was actually 10th in the field for SG: Approach and 2nd worst for putting that week. Theegala is certainly an excellent putter, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour over the last 6 months. Additionally, some of his best putting performances have come on bermudagrass as we find here. Notably, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and RSM Classic come to mind.
Of course, then was the 9th on Masters debut. That really felt like a significant moment for Theegala in his fledgling career; a sign to all of us that he can truly holds the ability to compete with the best. That, when combined with his near perfect correlation to the ideal course fit for this track, makes the 80/1 currently available far too juicy to resist.
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In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.
Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.
It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?
Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.
What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.
The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.
Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.
Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.
This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.
Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.
Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.
This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.
Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.
It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.
Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.
In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.
Want proven sharp golf betting picks and DFS tips at the best price? I write weekly articles deep-diving the PGA Tour and DP World Tour tournaments. Our tournament analysis is second-to-none, as we provide you some of the best golf betting and DFS golf tips on the planet.
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The PGA tour rolls on! Our crew has you covered for DFS Golf. This week we’re headed down to the Caribbean to Port Royal Golf Course for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship! We have all the content that you need through either live video or article, whichever is your preference.
The OGs of PGA DFS Joel, Dave, Spencer, and Sia cover the Bermuda Championship in their weekly DraftCast video.
The DraftCast is fun, informative, and sure to give you a couple of extra things to think about for every slate that you might miss at first look.
In this weekly article from one of our pros, Steven Polardi, he analyzes/predicts DraftKings ownership. Let’s see what he’s put together for the Bermuda.
Are you interested in golf but not familiar with DFS Golf? Fear no more, we have you covered in the breakdown below.
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