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Mexico Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Vidanta Vallarta hosts the Mexico Open betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Mexico Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Vidanta Vallarta, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Mexico Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

As always, the honourable mentions who just missed out on our betting card at the Mexico Open. I heavily considered giving J.J. Spaun a third crack at 100/1, after two missed cuts when tipped at the Genesis Invitational and WM Phoenix Open. His approach play has really been excellent of late. He does his best work for with the long irons. Although he should benefit from these slower paspalum surfaces, his putting has been woeful of late.

Nate Lashley and Brandon Wu are both respected given their outstanding form on paspalum comp courses. Those correlations have been well noted this time by bookmakers and they are far too short to be backed. Keith Mitchell has looked better recently, his combination of long and accurate driving complimented by superb long irons and a 2nd on debut at Corales Puntacana. He was tough to leave out, but a price closer to 35/1 had been expected.

Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 19 Feb at 8am ET

Nicolai Hojgaard
2.5u E/W +1800 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Thomas Detry – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2800 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2u E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Victor Perez
1u E/W +10000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)

Vince Whaley
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +160 (Bet365)

Kevin Chappell
0.5u +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +225 (Bet365)

Martin Trainer – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +700 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Mexico Open Betting Player Profiles

Nicolai Hojgaard

Despite being the very obvious class in this field, Tony Finau is an easy fade for me given how dreadful his putter has looked. He should benefit from these easier to read and slower greens, but a price nearer to 12/1 would’ve been a fairer reflection of his current form. Consequently, the price on Hojgaard at 18/1 looks generous in this decidedly weak field.

It is quite clear this is the type of test that should suit Nicolai’s eye. 33rd on debut last year came despite losing strokes both putting and ATG but gaining ball-striking. He was a winner on debut at the highly correlated Al Hamra in 2022, backing that up with a 13th in 2023 there. Further DP World Tour links can be found in the 3rd at the Czech Masters and 5th at the Italian Open, both on bomber paradises.

He also went very close to winning for us when tipped at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2023, finishing just one stroke behind Matt Wallace at another highly correlated course. Wallace actually provides a nice link, having taken the runner-up spot for us at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the DP World Tour Championship, where we managed a 1-2 with Hojgaard taking the win.

Obviously, Hojgaard has continued to elevate his game since. The recent 7th in a strong Dubai Desert Classic field is another track for the strong drivers. Another recent runner-up at the long and tough Torrey Pines just further indicates he has more than ample talent to be a PGA Tour winner soon. Given his excellent performance on paspalum greens and a weak field, this week presents a prime opportunity.

Thomas Detry – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

I’ll openly admit that even I winced when putting this selection up. Detry once again found a way to lose a golf tournament, throwing away a potential victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Fortunately for us, that handed our 125/1 selection Matthieu Pavon victory.

He did the same in the aforementioned 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship. Detry shot an even par final round, losing 1.43 strokes to the field, when looking a likely contender and finishing 8th.

Here in lies the problem. His form at that highly correlated course now reads 33-33-13-15-8. Additionally, he finished 9th on debut at Al Hamra and a 38th at El Cardonal came when in indifferent form. Instead, he arrives here after being bang in contention at Pebble Beach, a 20th at the Farmers Insurance Open, and 28th when last seen in Phoenix.

Yes, I have severe concerns about his ability to close out a victory. The fact remains he undoubtedly has the ability to win on either the PGA or DP World Tour. The big question comes to the 6 inches between the ears.

Unfortunately, I simply can’t avoid the strength of course correlations and recent form. In many ways, I hope he either opens up such a substantial lead that he can’t throw it away or, and perhaps better, he finds himself 4 strokes off the lead come Sunday and shoots a low final round. He may need to fall into victory to finally get the monkey off his back.

Davis Thompson

A little longer in our Mexico Open betting tips, the sophomore Davis Thompson can be found as long as 45/1. This talented youngster burst onto the scene finishing 9th in his first event of his rookie PGA Tour season, followed by a 12th two starts later, and a runner-up in January. The middle portion of the year proved a little more difficult as he found his feet, before re-establishing his credentials in the fall.

Included in that was a 15th at El Cardonal, where he managed a 66 and 67 without putting up an extremely low round which would’ve been required for victory that week. Given he is only in the start of his sophomore year, a lack of data is the many reason you won’t find further correlated course form. Diving into the Korn Ferry Tour, you can look to the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic for paspalum form. He was the first round leader that week, fading a little over the weekend but still finishing an admirable 12th.

Thompson has again had an excellent start to the year. 21st at the low scoring American Express was followed by a 15th in a strong WM Phoenix Open field. The approach game is in excellent touch, and this should suit better than other courses with his long irons the key. Davis Thompson is 4th in this field over the last 12 months for SG: App from over 200+ yards. he looks a fabulous bet at anything 40/1 or longer.

Victor Perez

Will we screaming “Allez Les Bleus” once again come Sunday, as another 100/1+ golfer charges to victory? I certainly hope so, and I believe Perez has the skills and experience to be the name who does so.

Undoubtedly, the performance of Pavon to break the duck of French PGA Tour winners has seen inspired French performances across the Atlantic. Do note Martin Trainer did secure a win on the PGA Tour, but that was when flying under the USA flag. More on him shortly.

Perez profile is an interesting one to delve into. In his two starts for 2024, he has essentially being doing the opposite of his baseline. That is, he is currently putting poorly (losing -2.85 and -1.60 strokes putting). However, he has now gained strokes on approach in his last 6 tournaments and SG: OTT in 5/6. It is a similar statistical profile he produced prior to his 2022 Dutch Open win.

Victor Perez achieved his biggest victory to date in a Rolex Series event, winning the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. That is played on paspalum greens, as is the Ras Al Khaimah Championship where he finished 13th in his one appearance at Al Hamra. He was also 8th when tipped by us at the DP World Tour Championship, where Hojgaard and Wallace finished 1-2. Other correlated courses can be found in the Italian Open (9th and 3rd) and Czech Masters (23rd and 11th).

Perez can sink some monster clutch putts when contention. A few of those this week and his current ball-striking numbers suggest he will look fantastic value at 100/1.

YouTube player

Vince Whaley

Before heading into our extreme long-shot betting picks at the Mexico Open, I have some time for Vince Whaley this week.

An impressive end to 2023 was marked by finishing 28th or better in 6/7 tournaments to close out the season. On the face of it, it has appeared to be a sluggish start to 2024. However, the good ball-striking has remained and he has been woeful with the putter. A return to his favoured paspalum is beneficial in that regard. Approach from 200+ yards is also quite easily his best approach distance.

Whaley has quietly excellent form on the comp courses. There is the 9th and 15th at the Puerto Rico Open. There is also a treble of 28th place finishes at Corales Puntacana. Diving further into history, a 2nd in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour with just his second professional tournament start in 2019 also catches the eye.

Kevin Chappell

If there was ever a tournament to speculate on long-shots, it may well be at an event like this one. To kick off, a return to Kevin Chappell who we have previously tipped at the Corales Puntacana Championship.

Chappell has finished 15th and 16th in his last two starts at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022 and 2023. He also boasts a finish of 15th at the 2023 Puerto Rico Open and was 24th in this event last year as well. That was pleasing being his only appearance at this course. If you really want to deep-dive, you can go all the was back to 2009 where he finished 11th in the Mexico Open and 4th in 2010 at the Panama Championship four months later.

Most recently, he finished 49th at the WM Phoenix Open but it is the start prior which is more intriguing. A 21st at the Panama Championship there was a break from some consistently poor play in 2023 outside the three paspalum events.

As such, a speculative play at odds as long as 225/1 seems a more than fair price.

Martin Trainer – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

I did promise we would return to speak about Martin Trainer, as he rounds out our Mexico Open Betting Tips available as long as 300/1.

As mentioned, Martin Trainer won in his rookie PGA Tour season at the correlated Puerto Rico Open in 2019. He also won in Mexico on the Korn Ferry Tour, notching up a win in 2018. Perhaps the paspalum correlation has much to do with spending his 2014-2016 years on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica.

More recently on the PGA Tour, he has achieved a 7th and 2nd at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022 and 2023 respectively. A 15th at El Cardonal in the Worldwide technology Championship a few months ago in November 2023 should have come as no surprise. Neither should the 11th he achieved at this event in 2022.

Much like Chappell, the recent form is perhaps the most pleasing in that he finished 8th last week at the Astara Golf Championship in Bogota Colombia. He looks far too long in current markets as a true paspalum specialist, and is a great shout for a Top 40 and maybe a sneaky Top 20 or better.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my Mexico Open betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

Get the bell on and make sure you never miss an episode! We go live every Tuesday 9PM ET.

Finally, I highly recommend link your WinDaily Sports Premium account to Discord. This grants you access to all our Premium Discord channels. You’ll be the first to get access to our betting tips and give you the best chance to snatch the sharpest numbers. Just go to your My Account page and click the “Connect With Discord” button.

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Genesis Invitational: Round 2 Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Riviera Country Club for Round 2 3-Ball bets at the Genesis Invitational

It’s rare that we deep-dive into any match-up bets before the weekend. We don’t often delve into the round by round bets early in tournaments as there is benefit (and an edge) to be had in extracting some extra data for the week. So, when we do, it pays to pay attention. At the Genesis Invitational, David Bieleski (@DeepDiveGolf) has found some 3 balls with promising returns.

As always, make sure you have delved into all our deep-dive into this course. We cover the key metrics for Riviera Country Club to find success at Riviera Country Club. You can find my pre-tournament statistical analysis of the Genesis Invitational here.

You can also catch the most recent PGA Draftcast episode below. Catch us live on YouTube every Tuesday at 9PM ET.

YouTube player

Best Bets: Round 2 3-Balls

J.J Spaun over Luke List and Kevin Yu
3u +225 Unibet (+220 MGM)
Justin Thomas over Tiger Woods and Gary Woodland
5u -115 Bet365 (-118 MGM)
Adam Scott over Alex Smalley and Taylor Montgomery
5u +100 William Hill (+100 MGM/FanDuel)

Treble Spaun/JT/Scott to win their 3-ball
1u +1068 Bet365
Boxed Doubles Spaun/JT/Scott to win their 3-ball
6u (3 x 2u Doubles) Bet365

Genesis Invitational: J.J. Spaun over List/Yu

Let’s be real: Luke List (+120) is a dreadful putter. He just gained +4.59 SG: Putt in round 1 to lead the field putting. He has only gained putting at this course in 1/8 tournaments at the Genesis Invitational. We can expect some regression.

As to the other in the 3-ball, Kevin Yu (+200) shot +4 today without a single birdie. He lost across the board in all SG metrics.

Meanwhile, J.J. Spaun ranked 68/70 losing -3.31 SG: Putt in round 1, is statistically a better putter than List, and has gained putting here in 3/6 tournaments at Riviera. He was also 7th for SG: APP.

Very happy to take the underdog in this 3-ball at long odds.

Genesis Invitational: Justin Thomas over Woods/Woodland

JT really shot himself over the first 9 holes, losing -2.13 strokes putting and -1.27 approach on the front 9 alone. Perhaps he was simply Tiger-struck? He found his game over the 2nd half of the round, gaining +1.52 SG: APP and +1.19 SG: Putt. Thomas also lost -0.94 SG: ATG on the round.

He has gained 4+ strokes putting at the Genesis Invitational in 4/6 most recent events at Riviera. That includes when in the dreadful first 6 months to 2023. The Genesis Invitational was the only event he gained strokes putting. He has gained in SG: ATG at every tournament he has played here.

Woodland stats are massively buoyed by an eagle at the 11th hole. He has only gained putting in 1/6 at the Genesis Invitational and only finished better than 26th once. He has had his own medical issues to deal with and Woods obviously still suffering from both rust and injury, claiming the shank at the last was due not to the leg but a back-spasm. I’ll certianly be claiming back-spasms next time I shank the ball. Of course, he might produce some Woods magic but I like the number available on JT to continue the good form he showed on his 2nd 9.

Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott over Smalley/Montgomery

This bet is not so much about what Adam Scott did, but more about what the others didn’t do in round 1 at the Genesis Invitational.

Montgomery was 61st for SG: APP and 63rd for SG: OTT. Basically, his ranking of 65/70 in SG: T2G really tells the story of how poor his ball-striking was. He has only played the Genesis Invitational once last year, missing the cut.

Likewise, Alex Smalley was very poor in round 1. Having just lost -8.20 SG: APP at the WM Phoenix Open, he lost another -3.91 SG: APP on Thursday here. His Genesis Invitational record reads 72-MC.

Therefore, neither of these pose much threat to Adam Scott. Although he didn’t play brilliantly, he was still better statistically than his two competitors. Scott is a two time winner at the Genesis Invitational and has been in brilliant form in 2024. Look for a return to business in the 2nd round.

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PGASports BettingGolf

Genesis Invitational Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Riviera Country Club host of our Genesis Invitational Preview

For the first time in history, six consecutive winners on the PGA Tour have been priced at 100/1 or longer pre-tournament. The reason for this could be speculated from many angles. My suspicion is that it is a combination of the middle of these markets being decimated by LIV Golf acquisitions, but also some regression from previous season. 2023 saw a lack of winners at triple figures or beyond. There is a chance that what we are experiencing is simply the law of averages at play, with a large number of winners between 50/1 and 100/1 last year. As we preview the Genesis Invitational, we also have the excitement of the return of Tiger Woods to competition.

The Tiger Woods Conversation

As mentioned on the PGA Draftcast this week, the deep passion fans have to see Tiger again be competitive will influence their decisions in their preview of the Genesis Invitational. A few factors need to be considered here. Of course, the tough walk of Riviera Country Club is not the most ideal given Tiger’s injury. The injury in this instance is far more severe than when is previous back issues were in-play in the late 2010s.

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Riviera Country Club has also not been the best venue for Tiger Woods. Historically, he has underperformed at this tournament compared to other golf courses. His best finish at this track came in 2004 in debut when finishing 7th. His overall popularity is still going to see him disproportionally owned in DFS compared to his actual chances. I suspect he will make the cut, with a finish around 35th would not surprise.

Riviera Country Club Course Analysis

The Genesis Invitational preview is again hosted at Riviera Country Club. The course has hosted this tournament on 59 prior occasions and every instance of the event since 1999. As such, there is a wealth of data to deep-dive into this week.

The course is decently long at 7,322 yards for a par 71. Tree-lined fairways and bunkering narrow the course, along with fairway width sitting below 30 yards on average. Rough is only 2 inches in length. However, do note that the grass type is kikuyu. This grass is quite sticky and difficult. It is liable to fliers or grabbing onto the hosel of the club.

We see a very large number of approach shots from 150-200 yards. Coincidentally, this is the same approach range that received a significant uptick in predicted approach range last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Greens are large at over 7,000sq feet on average. However, they do play a lot smaller than this. The multi-tiered nature of the greens sees the actual target area reduced to much smaller. The course has some of the highest correlation on the PGA Tour of SG: ATG and success as a result.

We have seen bombers find success at this track as of late. Given the recent weather, an argument could be made that this will again be the case this week. Personally, I would rather hone in on the best ball-strikers and SG: ATG along with putting acumen on this poa annua surfaces.

Course Comps for our Genesis Invitational Preview

Prior course form at Riviera Country Club has proven a good preview guide to future success. In fact, after Augusta National it is the second most predictive of any other regular venue on the PGA Tour.

The Masters and Augusta National are also intrinsically tied to this event. Jon Rahm completed the double last year and golfers such as Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott have found success on both tracks. This event has long been regarded as one of the best form guides to The Masters along with the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

Finally, the Valspar Championship host is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. They are both fairly long courses with tree-lined fairways, providing a stern test for golfers. It can be used as another reasonable guide, despite sitting on opposite sides of the United States.

Weather

Firstly, it is worth making a comment on the format this week for our Genesis Invitational preview. The tournament features just 70 players and is a signature event. However, there is also a cut this week. This is at the demand of Tiger Woods. The cut will be either 50 players and ties OR any player within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes. As such, any player missing the cut will have had to have played fairly poorly.

Therefore, weather plays less of a factor in our decisions this week. Regardless, weather is calm for the week. What does bear some consideration is the huge amount of rainfall experienced in California recently. The state received a year’s worth of rain in a week. The golf course superintendents will likely struggle to get the course as firm and fast as they would like, especially for Thursday and Friday. You may find that the course also plays a little bit longer as a result.

Genesis Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Genesis Invitational, you can preview these on our expert tips page here or in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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Thank you for reading my Genesis Invitational preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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PGAPremium

The Genesis Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

The Cat (no hat) is back. Here kitty kitty. Tiger Woods will be prowling the grounds at Riviera this week. The word is out that he is not limping and is smoking his drives. At a 6500 salary on DK raise your hand if you will put Tiger “in just one lineup.” OK, everyone over 45 raised their hand and anyone with gray streaks in their hair was fist pumping.

He has records that will never be broken in golf. Ever. Scottie Scheffler, the current #1 would have to stay #1 every single week for the next 12.5 years to top Tiger. 12.5 YEARS. You can’t help it, the nostalgia is to strong. If you were fortunate enough to watch him back in the day you are hoping for just one more brilliant week on a golf course he has played since a child. His golf acumen was brilliant. Brilliance is what the golf staff at Win Daily Sports strives for and delivers. We work tirelessly to bring you the best intel. The Genesis Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

Riviera is a shot makers dream course. Period. Golfers will have to place their tee shot on the right side (or left) of the fairway, then come in to the right or left or deep on the greens. The Masters is a true comp course to Riviera. The 6 golfers you pick should be creative in their thought process and execution. The proximity buckets are 150-175 and 150-200 and 200+. The best approach players are Glover, Scheffler, Hovland and Cole. The best putters here are Homa, Hadwin ,Montgomery, Hoge and Svennson

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit hit again, it hit hard and deep. Our Biscuit finished in 12th place with a 6K salary and an aggregate owner percentage of 2.6. That’s 2.6 % which means if he was in your lineup you just passed 98% of your competition in a one on one or 1V1. That is crucial in building your lineups for a takedown. The Frisky Biscuit is 14-1 now for the last 15. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild temps and light winds through Friday. Early winds are 3 mph up to 9 mph around 4 in the afternoon. There may be a light rain Wednesday evening. Hopefully we can finally have a PGA tourney where weather doesn’t dictate the outcome!

Let’s take a look at the Genesis Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie29.411500
Thomas, Justin23.89100
Morikawa, Collin21.49500
Scott,Adam20.88200
Cantlay, Patrick20.69300
Burns, Sam20.28700
Homa, Max19.39800
Aberg, Ludvig19.19200
McIlroy, Rory18.911200
Schauffele, Xander18.610100
Young, Cameron17.78500
Hovland, Viktor17.510000
Spieth, Jordan15.49000
Theegala, Sahith14.98600
Zalatoris,Will13.37900
Clark, Wyndham13.28300
Finau, Tony12.78900
Hossler, Beau12.67000
Fitzpatrick, Mathew11.78400
Matsuyama, Hideki11.67400
Kitayama, Kurt 11.46900
Hojgaard, Nicolai11.17800
Fleetwood, Tommy10.48800
Poston,  JT9.97800
Kim, Si Woo9.47600
An, Byeong8.87600
McCarthy, Denny8.77500
English, Harris8.37000
Hoge, Tom7.96700
Bradley, Keegan7.77900
Hadwin, Adam7.67100
Taylor, Nick7.57200
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 7.48100
Day, Jason7.38000
List, Luke7.26600
Henley, Russell7.27700
Cole, Eric7.17700
Conners, Corey7.17300
Davis, Cameron7.07200
Grillo, Emiliano6.86900
Im, Sungjae6.38000
Straka, Sepp6.07100
Rodgers, Patrick5.46800
Kirk, Chris5.27500
Griffin, Ben5.26400
Harman, Brian4.97300
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan4.96700
Schenk, Adam4.86700
Montgomery, Taylor4.76800
Svensson, Adam4.76600
Moore, Taylor4.66500
Hoffman, Charley4.56200
Woods, Tiger4.46500
Kucher, Matt4.36400
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)4.26300
Putnam, Andrew4.16600
Fowler, Rickie3.47400
Hardy, Nick3.36100
Ryder, Sam3.26000
Power, Seamus2.96000
Woodland, Gary2.76100
Todd, Brendon2.66800
Glover, Lucas2.26500
Hughes, Mackenzie1.86300
Spaun, JJ1.76200
Dunlap,  Nick 1.66400
Smalley, Alex 1.56300
Hodges, Lee 1.06200
Murray, Grayson0.66100
Johnson, Chase0.06000

The Genesis Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:29 EST. *****Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

*******Leverage Plays******

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: P Cantlay

Mid Tier: Will Z

Low Tier: C Davis

Bottom Feeder: Hoge

My Picks for The Genesis

Top Tier: Burns

Mid Tier: Theegala

Low Tier: Davis

Out in Left Play: CBEZ

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Scott

FR Leader: Poston (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports. Last week Stix of Stix Picks picked up 10,000 in a golf contest and helped a new Win Daily member win 6,000. It’s on Tuesday evenings on Apple/Spotify and is certainly worth 30 minutes of your time. Could be worth 10,000.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! They both continue to defy the odds with consistent winning along with Spencer of Tee off Sports.

***** Parting Shots *****

Superman was feeling a bit randy so he asked Batman where he could find some action. Batman told him that Wonder Woman was the best sex in comic land. Superman said, “we’re good friends, I don’t want to take advantage” He took off flying and met The Green Lantern and asked him where can I find some action. The GL told him Wonder Woman was absolutely incredible.

Superman relayed that they were good friends and flew off, although he became frustrated by the fact she got around a lot. Using his X-ray vision he spotted Wonder Woman in her apartment, naked, lying face up on the bed. He thought, I’m faster than a speeding bullet, I could be there and gone before she knows it.

With a blur and a sonic boom he was there, in, finished and gone. Wonder Woman gazed up at the sky and asked, “what in the hell was that?” “I don’t know said the invisible man, but my ass is killing me.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

LIVE PGA Draftcast Genesis Invitational

Sia, DeepDiveGolf - David BieleskiJoel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar
written by Sia, DeepDiveGolf - David BieleskiJoel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar

Another triple figure winner on the #PGATour. We have already hit two of them this year! David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1 and Spence Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) snatched Wyndham Clark at a HUGE 100/1!

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The WMO Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

It’s all Sam Ryders fault. He scored an ace at the WMO on the iconic 16th, the coliseum hole. Patrons went nuts and threw thousands of glass beer bottles onto the green, into the bunkers, and generally where no bottles should go. The video of the spectacle went viral. The PGA learned that thousands of non fans watched the bedlam and probably thought wow, this isn’t Uncle Joe’s old game anymore and new fans were born. Over 800,000 will attend this week. The CYA (cover your ass) lawyers had the PGA outlaw glass containers on the 16th. The vendors had to sell all the beer in cups, anyone coming up to the 16th had to lose their bottle and pour it into a cup.

This is when beer snakes were born. Thousands of cups were stacked up high with one, then competing snakes to see who could get theirs the highest. Patrons would chug their cups of beer and claim it was a sacrifice to the beer snake to help him grow faster. Right. Our expertise doesn’t concern beer snakes. Our expertise is designed to help your DFS bankroll reach the heavens and beyond. The AT&T Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

This will be my last Belize report before heading home to Super Sunday. I had a phenomenal trip except for a spear gun incident and look forward to returning in July. We met a Canadian couple who were first timers here and the wife was gushing about what a “magical” place this is. Maybe that’s why I’ve returned every year for over 44 years.

Courses and Horses

I hate to disappoint all of you but we’re down to just one course to play. It comes with shot link. Plus all the metrics you can scrape and load. Thank God. This is simply a good drivers course with tougher than usual approach shots. The greens are fast, they will be running at a 12 on the stimp meter. Faster. The proximity buckets we want to watch are 150-175, and 175-200. The best approach players are Scheffler, Cole, Xander, Hovland, Glover and Woodland. Putters on this particular surface include Montgomery, Ramey, Burns and Ryder.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit hit again on both our picks last week at 1.5 and 2.6 % ownership and a 6K salary range. We will not be padding our 13-1 record because there was no cut. Patrick Cantlay was our first round leader pick. Thomas Detry holed out from the rough more than 70 yards away to barely squeeze by Cantlay. Sam Ryder was outstanding leverage for us last week Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuits will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for colder temps Thursday afternoon and pretty decent weather Friday afternoon. We like a Thursday am/ Friday pm wave. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Wednesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the WMO Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie37.711600
Thomas, Justin29.410000
An, Byeong19.28800
Homa, Max17.69800
Poston,  JT17.48900
Spieth, Jordan17.49500
Burns, Sam17.29600
Hadwin, Adam14.48000
Im, Sungjae13.59300
Clark, Wyndham13.39000
Matsuyama, Hideki12.88400
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 12.78600
Kim, Si Woo12.47900
Theegala, Sahith12.39100
Bhatia, Akshay 12.17800
Conners, Corey11.98100
Lee, Min Woo11.88700
Cole, Eric11.48500
Hossler, Beau11.38000
Scott,Adam10.98300
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)9.97300
Fitzpatrick, Mathew8.89400
Young, Cameron8.49200
Harman, Brian8.37800
Hubbard, Mark8.17400
Kitayama, Kurt 7.97200
Lowry, Shane7.97700
Mitchell, Keith7.67500
Noren, Alexander7.57900
Grillo, Emiliano7.47500
Fowler, Rickie7.28200
Detry,Thomas 6.97600
Van Rooyen, Erik6.87100
McCarthy, Denny6.67600
Berger, Daniel6.37700
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan5.97400
Rai, Aaron5.67100
List, Luke5.37100
Ryder, Sam5.06900
English, Harris4.97500
Hoge, Tom4.97300
Ghim, Doug4.96800
Putnam, Andrew4.87600
Eckroat, Austin 4.37000
Kim, Michael4.37100
Horschel, Billy4.27100
Montgomery, Taylor4.17400
Taylor, Nick4.17200
Svensson, Adam3.97000
Knapp, Jake3.96900
Kucher, Matt3.77000
Woodland, Gary3.77000
Schenk, Adam3.67200
Glover, Lucas3.47200
Stallings, Scott3.36700
Lee, KH3.36900
Lashley, Nate3.26900
Todd, Brendon3.27400
Spaun, JJ3.16700
Hardy, Nick3.16800
Bramlett, Joseph2.86700
Moore, Taylor2.87300
Hadley, Chesson2.67000
Thompson, Davis 2.66900
Griffin, Ben2.47000
Vegas, Jhonattan2.46500
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.36500
Fox, Ryan2.27200
Suh, Justin 2.26600
Norrman, Vincent2.26800
Murray, Grayson1.96600
Bjork, Alexander1.96900
Hodges, Lee 1.76700
Wu, Brandon 1.76800
Young, Carson1.66400
Kohles, Ben1.56600
McNealy, Maverick1.56500
Kizzire, Patton1.46800
Perez, Victor 1.36700
Power, Seamus1.36700
Yuan, Carl1.36400
Cauley, Bud1.26000
Dumont de Chassart, Adrien1.26400
Duncan, Tyler1.26500
Sigg, Greyson 1.26700
Champ, Cameron1.16600
Higgo, Garrick1.16400
Shelton, Robby1.16500
Stevens, Sam1.16600
Gotterup, Christopher1.16800
Schmid, Matti (Matthias)0.96500
MacIntyre, Robert 0.87400
Martin, Ben0.86600
NeSmith, Matthew0.86400
Ramey, Chad0.86100
Snedeker, Brandt0.86100
Moore, Ryan0.86300
Dahmen, Joel0.76300
Lower, Justin0.76300
Pan, CT0.76100
Valimaki,Sami 0.76600
Blair, Zac0.66100
Cink, Stewart0.66300
Hoffman, Charley0.66500
Johnson, Zack0.66300
Laird, Martin0.66200
Malnati, Peter0.66200
Reavie, Chez0.66200
Wu, Dylan0.66600
Buckley, Hayden0.56000
Griffin, Lanto0.56300
Novak, Andrew0.56200
Villegas, Camilo0.56400
Gordon, Will0.46400
Tarren, Callum0.46200
Baddeley, Aaron0.36300
Echavarria, Nico0.36100
Holmes, JB0.36000
Donald, Luke0.26100
Lipsky, David0.26100
Merritt, Troy0.26200
Alexander, Tyson0.16000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
Chappell, Kevin0.06000
Galletti, Nicolo0.06000
Hall, Harry0.06200
Knous, Jim0.06000
Mueller, Jesse0.06000
Stadler, Kevin0.06000
Taylor, Ben0.06000

The WMO Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:29 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

*******Leverage Plays******

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Conners ,

Low Tier: Yu, List

Bottom Feeder: Doug Ghim

My Picks for The WMO

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Conners

Low Tier: Rai

Out in Left Play: Ryder

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Poston

FR Leader: Conners (Contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Deep Dive Dave hit a 125-1 longshot who brought home the mega bucks.

Spencer @ Tee Off Sports hit a 100-1 shot on Clark after making a huge sacrifice to some nature god….. Missing your pet? Amazing work by some serious talent.

***** Parting Shots *****

Two good friends are talking about a woman one of them just met. He was mesmerized by her beauty and she was the hottest thing he’d ever seen. A smoke show. They had met casually a few times and he finally asked and got a date with her. His friend said you look stressed, what’s up? He said every time I look at her I get a raging erection. Every time. What do I do? His buddy pondered for a moment and said I got this. Take some duct tape and wrap your johnson tightly to your leg. Problem solved!

After the date the one friend was concerned because his friend looked miserable. He said what in the hell happened? Well, he said- she opened her door in a very short almost see through dress and then I kicked her in the face.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Scottsdale hosts our WM Phoenix Open betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the WM Phoenix Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Scottsdale, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

As always, the honourable mentions who failed to make the betting card at the WM Phoenix Open. Sungjae Im was heavily considered. He had a much better end to 2023 than many gave him credit for. He also holds excellent course history here, with prior performance proven a strong indicator for success. Some of his poor performance can be attributed to reported illness last week. However, losing on approach for three consecutive tournaments was sufficient to see him narrowly excluded.

Austin Eckroat looks to be a real talent and one I am monitoring closely, as is Vincent Norrman. Tom Kim also took a fair amount of my attention this week. Chiefly, his excellent performances at TPC Summerlin should translate well to this venue. Typically a very good putter, I have been somewhat put off by his start to 2024. Having lost quite significantly putting at all three tournaments this year and some indifferent iron play, I have started to develop concerns whether there may be a deeper underlying problem there. He remains a “wait and see” for now.

WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 5 Feb at 8pm ET

Byeong-Hun An
2pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite
1.5pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adam Hadwin
1.5pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Kurt Kitayama
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Harris English
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Sam Ryder
0.5pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +150 (Bet365)

J.J. Spaun
0.5pt E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

A real question raises this week with Xander and Viktor withdrawing. The top of the board is left looking somewhat barren as a result. Even more so with DFS, where pricing can not be adjusted after it is set. If you were to take a stance on either Scottie Scheffler or Justin Thomas, I really couldn’t begrudge you doing so. In doing so, you would need to go all in with your preferred selection. Certainly, it is the simplest way to view the week.

Scheffler holds the most appeal to me of the two. He is quite easily the best in the world over the last two years from 150-200 yards. It is his strongest approach bucket. No wonder he is looking to complete a three-peat here this week! Of course, the question is the putter. Should he putt at anything above field average he likely wins here. Thomas for me looks too short in the market at current odds of 10/1. Yes, he has been much improved than a morbid 2023. He does very well in 150-200 yard approach shots, but historically struggles over 200 yards. He should be better priced at fair odds of 14/1 in my models.

As such, we are able to speculate on some longer shots again this week. This allows us to deploy 30 units, but take an expanded selection of 8 golfers in our WM Phoenix Open betting tips.

Byeong-Hun An

With question marks and short odds around all those after Scheffler and JT, we arrive at Benny An. I did go back and forth between Sungjae Im and Byeong-Hun An here. As mentioned in the preview, the atypical iron play from Sungjae saw fellow Korean Benny An preferred.

A resurgent end to 2023 has put him on many people’s radar. A large part of that has come down to finding some real gains with his putter. He has now gained putting in 8/9 tournaments since July 2023. Previously, this was one of the weaker parts of his game.

Plenty long off the tee and accurate enough to get the job done at TPC Scottsdale, he is a big gainer on approach from 100-200 yards. This is the best approach ranges for him. It should come as no surprise in betting that he holds a good record at the WM Phoenix Open. He has starts of a 6th on debut followed by 23-20-9-53.

He also possesses a good record at TPC San Antonio, with a 7th in 2019 and 6th last year in just 4 starts. This former winner of the BMW PGA Championship (Wentworth also typically rewarding ball-strikers) is trending towards a debut PGA Tour win soon.

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite

Cole proved to be an easy bet for me this week. Continually disrespected by books and DFS providers alike, it seems only a victory will suffice.

Being neither overly long off the tee nor accurate with the driver, Eric Cole’s game is built around his excellent approach play. For this golf course, which SG: OTT is not hugely predictive, it seems a perfect fit. He is the 6th best in this field over the last 12 months for SG: APP. He also particularly excels in the key 150-200 yard approach bucket. He again ranks 6th in this field in the past year in that range. It is the strongest distance for him, followed narrowly by 100-150 yards. 72% of approach shots are predicted in that range this week.

Missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open may have taken him off many people’s radar. Fact is, Torrey Pines is perhaps one of the worst courses on tour for Cole. It marked his first missed cut since May 2023, a run of 18 tournaments. He bounced right back to form at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, finishing 14th. He was also 4th best in the tournament for SG: APP for good measure. A 3rd in Las Vegas at TPC Summerlin in October is another hint that this may be the week for Eric Cole.

Adam Hadwin

Another opportunity for us to roll with the desert fox this week! Again, Hadwin ticks the box in the key approach range of 150-200 yards and is an excellent putter. Hadwin’s affinity with desert golf was again on full display at the American Express. It is a tournament he holds a great record, which he only reaffirmed with a 6th place finish two weeks ago.

His form at TPC Scottsdale is also solid. 10th last year came in a very strong field when this was still officially a designated signature special event. Prior to that, he had finishes of 17-12-43-44-40-50-26-10 here. Further adding to the desert form was a 4th at the Valero Texas Open last year, 2nd and 10th at TPC Summerlin in 2023, and a previous 5th and 8th at Colonial.

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value

Grillo has long been the hero of the ball-striking truthers. The perennial excellent approach player who has struggled with the putter. If only all could find the same solutions Grillo did in 2023.

Somehow, Grillo really found something with the putter last year. Sufficiently so that he is actually the 31st best putter in this field over the past 12 months, 15th in the last 6 months, and 5th over the past 90 days. The ball-striking is still impressive. Particularly, the key range of 150-200 yards where is ranks 11th in this field over the last year.

A winner at Colonial in 2023 again hints desert golf should suit. He also holds a 3rd, 19th, and 8th at that course. As does some sneaky DP World Tour form, where he finished 4th in a very strong field at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the season ending tournament of the 2015 Race to Dubai.

Starting 2024 with results of 7-20-14 in the past 3 weeks bodes well for another victory shortly.

Kurt Kitayama

A great option as a boom-or-bust play, Kitayama always feels a bit all or nothing for me. He is the type of player that makes the most of his chances, proving he can mix it with the best when he finds himself in contention.

2022 and 2023 provide plenty of evidence of his relentless attitude at the biggest events. 2022 saw him 2nd at the Scottish Open and 7th at the Italian Open, both with strong fields. The latter of course was a DP World Tour event, but was well attended due to being the impending host of the Ryder Cup. 2023 of course brought the win at Bay Hill, far from the worst comp to TPC Scottsdale. He complimented that with a 5th at Austin Country Club in the match-play and 4th at the PGA Championship.

Sticking to theme, Kitayama does his best approach play over 150 yards. His wedges are typically his weakest aspect, so gaining plenty on approach last week at Pebble Beach is seen positively.

With just one look at this course, he managed a 23rd in an elevated event here last year gaining plenty with the putter and ball-striking. The putter will be key for him as always, but the performance on the greens here in 2023 provides plenty of promise at 80/1.

Harris English

An excellent putter who is often held back by his lack of distance off the tee, English has shown some decent return to form over the past 6 months. Included in that was an 8th at the US Open, with LACC again far from the worst you could do for guidance here given Rickie Fowler’s performance at both.

Previously he has a 3rd, 9th, 15th, and 16th at this tournament. A 12th at Colonial last year came the week after a missed cut, hinting at the type of course that may best suit his game. He also holds a runner-up and 5th on that course.

Of course, he does his best approach work in the 150+ yards buckets. A 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship and 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023 again point to his best work coming from distance.

Sam Ryder

Flagged as one of the highest value plays in my models, Ryder looks well over priced at 150/1. 20th here when an elevated event followed a 23rd the year prior, where he has never missed a cut here in 5 attempts.

Of no surprise, he again pops in the 150-200 yard range. He sits just behind Eric Cole in 7th for SG: APP in that key range over the past 12 months. For total approach, he ranks 6th in this field over the last 6 months.

The 3rd at TPC San Antonio last year was very nearly a win for him. TPC Summerlin is also ticked, with a 3rd, 18th and two 28th place finishes most recently. He has always been at field average or gained putting at this tournament, demonstrating a sense of comfort on these greens above other venues. Ryder looks worth a small look in win markets, but equally great value in Top 20 and Top 40 finish markets.

J.J. Spaun

Finally, we conclude our WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips with a speculative look at Spaun.

Obviously, the venue of his 2022 Valero Texas Open win is well correlated to here. Large green complexes featuring the same grass, near identical distance metrics, and desert waste areas waiting to catch your ball if you stray massively offline. He also holds a 26th and a 22nd at TPC San Antonio most recently. Spaun has a 10th and a pair of 15th placed finishes in 7 starts at TPC Summerlin to his name.

It should be no surprise Spaun found immediate liking to this venue, featuring 4th in just his 9th PGA Tour start. Of most promise, he has always putted well on these greens. He has always gained or been at field average in all his appearances. In this weaker field in 2024, he is worth a bet at the long 200/1 odds on offer.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my WM Phoenix Open betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

Get the bell on and make sure you never miss an episode! We go live every Tuesday 9PM ET.

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Finally, I highly recommend link your WinDaily Sports Premium account to Discord. This grants you access to all our Premium Discord channels. You’ll be the first to get access to our betting tips and give you the best chance to snatch the sharpest numbers. Just go to your My Account page and click the “Connect With Discord” button.

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WM Phoenix Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Scottsdale hosts our WM Phoenix Open preview

Another week and another preview to deep-dive into as the PGA Tour moves to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open!

The PGA Tour were a bit unlucky after what can only be described as a somewhat lacklustre finish to the first proper signature event of the season. Offsetting that was a rather remarkable round from Wyndham Clark. You can hardly begrudge him his victory after an impressive round of 60, despite the reduction to 54 holes to hurricane like weather. Also, a huge shoutout to one of our WinDaily team Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) who successfully tipped him at 100/1!

Although we correctly predicted the event would only be held over 54 holes, we ourselves were a bit unlucky to get on the wrong side of the weather. Although Thursday was tough as predicted, Friday ended up playing much easier than forecasts foreshadowed. This resulted in a substantial edge developing for players who played the more sheltered Spyglass Hill on Thursday. We had unfortunately gone the other way, expecting higher forecast winds on Friday to prove difficult on the highly exposed Pebble Beach Golf Links.

These things can and do happen. Part of covering any live sporting event is the unpredictability and volatility that naturally enters that territory. But, isn’t that part of the beauty? And, this was the first tournament this year where we didn’t really end up with anyone in true contention. We trust the process and continue what we do best, as we preview the WM Phoenix Open.

TPC Scottsdale Course Analysis

Having been held at TPC Scottsdale, since 1987, we again have one of those beautiful weeks where there is plenty of easy data available to preview the WM Phoenix Open. It only take a cursory glance at previous leaderboards to realise a couple things. Firstly, with several multiple winners here course history is relatively sticky. Secondly, that this is a course dominated by good ball strikers.

Names such as Scheffler, Matsuyama, Koepka, Fowler, Thomas, and Mickelson all hint at some of the best iron players on the Tour. They also have a certain amount of grit to them, often finding themselves in contention in the biggest of events. Despite losing signature status, still remains amongst the more iconic events on the schedule.

Of note in the data is the heavy skewing we see in approach distances. Golfers will see between 8-9 approach shots on average from 150-200 yards. Despite being an above average length par 71 at 7,261 yards, roll-out tends to give a helping hand to shorter hitters. Likewise, the wide fairways and fairly benign rough mean you can pull driver often without actually providing much advantage. The main thing off the tee is to avoid the big miss and the risks in the natural waste areas. Your approach is the way to separate yourself from the pack.

Huge green complexes average over 7,000 sq ft. This sees an increased importance on not just finding the green, but the right area and shelf on the surfaces. Putting does receive a higher weighting at this course. A combination of needing to lag putt, avoid long three putts, and make your birdie opportunities see SG: Putting as a good indicator of potential success.

Course Comps for our WM Phoenix Open Preview

As mentioned, prior form at TPC Scottsdale does tend to be a good predictor of future success here. Accordingly, you should give a higher weighting to previous performance on this track than at other venues. Likewise, if a golfer has had several opportunities to preview this course and never really performed well you should take this into consideration at the WM Phoenix Open.

Other desert form is useful to consider at this event. TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriners Children’s Open in neighbouring Las Vegas Nevada, is a decent enough guide. You will see similar approach metrics to those at the WM Phoenix Open, and a preview into a golfers ability in desert altitude.

Additionally, Colonial Country Club and TPC San Antonio in Texas bear consideration. The latter, host of the Valero Texas Open, is a particularly good guide. TPC San Antonio also features multi-tiered Poa Trivialis greens. They also have near identical distances throughout the course. Average par 4/5 length being 469 vs 467 yards and average par 3 length being 188 vs 183 yards. Fairway widths are 31.3 on average vs 31.5 yards at TPC Scottsdale.

Finally, The American Express provides a nice combination of desert golf and recent form. It is worth considering as guide for your WM Phoenix Open preview.

Weather

We saw the beauty of the volatility that comes with the weather last week. Although we nailed the call early in the week that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am would be a 54 hole event, Friday brought far less rain and winds than had been originally forecast.

Certainly, it always poses a risk to take a stance when it comes to mother nature. However, the risk so often proves worthwhile. Bookmakers are notoriously slow to react to weather forecasts in adjusting their pricing. Likewise, DFS players can benefit in significant leverage on the rest of the field when you get the weather right and have constructed your line-ups to benefit.

It does seem quite possible a weather edge may develop this week as well. Thursday looks to be cold and overcast all day. Rain is predicted in mid to late afternoon. This will make the course play longer, but also mean the greens will play softer. The heaviest wind gusts are currently forecast in the morning. Friday looks to be calm but still cold. There is little variation in wind gusts forecast throughout the day. Saturday looks to bring quite heavy rain, which could prove difficult for any very short hitters who aren’t excellent with longer approach shots. Sunday should be sunny, but a very cold morning to start.

If I were to take a guess, those going out Thursday afternoon may see the best of conditions. There is certainly a risk that flips again this week. The rains could well be accompanied by either an uptick or continuation of the morning winds. As such, I’d definitely recommend building some contrarian lines this week to cover both angles in some capacity.

WM Phoenix Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the WM Phoenix Open, you can preview these here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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Thank you for reading my WM Phoenix Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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The AT&T Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

This week we are still in California at iconic Pebble Beach. There’s more weather coming in that will add variables to the final equation, Sunday they are expecting wind gusts to be at 40 MPH on a course with the tiniest greens on the PGA. Rain or shine or hurricane, Win Daily Sports has the tools and experts to assist you with roster construction. The AT&T Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

I will be in Belize this week and next for a working vacation. I’m using up my scuba permits. Only 10% of the Belize barrier reef has been researched. It goes to 218 feet deep, 27 miles long and has over five hundred species of sea life. I’ll be visiting them almost daily.

Courses and Horses

We have two courses, Spyglass and Pebble Beach. The players split the two courses over the first two days and play Pebble on Saturday and Sunday. There is no more Saturday pro-am, there is a tiny field you may glimpse on Thursday. Proximity Buckets will be concentrated on 100-125 yards and less so over 200 yards. Players who do well are Cole, Glover, Hideki and Morikawa. The greens are Poa. Some of the best putters statistically are McNealy, Day, Sungjae and Homa.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit hit on both our picks last week at 2.8 and 3 % ownership and 6K salary range. This brings our record to 13-1. Our only loss was Jake Knapp last week. Jake Knapp just finished in third place this week at the Farmers. Last week in our NEW leverage addition to this article our bottom of the barrel pick was Nate Lashley. He was owned by 1% of the field. He finished 3rd. That folks, is bigly leverage. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuits will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for cold temperatures no higher than 53 degrees. rain on Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday. The winds are scheduled to be 25MPH with gusts to 40. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Wednesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the AT&T Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Homa, Max24.49200
Schauffele, Xander22.610000
Hovland, Viktor20.710200
Spieth, Jordan20.69400
Scheffler, Scottie19.911400
Thomas, Justin18.99600
McIlroy, Rory18.311500
Morikawa, Collin17.59100
Cantlay, Patrick17.39700
Cole, Eric15.97300
Fleetwood, Tommy14.18600
Poston,  JT14.17900
Aberg, Ludvig12.98600
An, Byeong12.98000
Im, Sungjae12.38500
Henley, Russell12.27800
Finau, Tony11.78800
Fitzpatrick, Mathew11.78200
Scott,Adam11.47600
Hossler, Beau11.37800
McCarthy, Denny10.97500
Harman, Brian10.47600
Day, Jason9.68400
Burns, Sam9.58900
Hojgaard, Nicolai9.28100
Kirk, Chris8.97500
Clark, Wyndham8.17400
Todd, Brendon8.17000
Davis, Cameron8.16700
Young, Cameron7.98700
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 7.98000
Jaeger, Stephan 7.87300
Taylor, Nick7.87200
Theegala, Sahith7.77900
Hadwin, Adam7.47300
Matsuyama, Hideki7.28300
McNealy, Maverick7.26200
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)6.97200
Bradley, Keegan6.77700
Putnam, Andrew6.66800
Hoge, Tom6.36700
Rose, Justin5.97500
English, Harris5.97100
Rodgers, Patrick5.46900
Hubbard, Mark5.46300
Kitayama, Kurt 5.36600
Conners, Corey5.27700
Noren, Alexander5.27200
Montgomery, Taylor5.26800
Grillo, Emiliano5.16800
Glover, Lucas5.16500
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan4.86900
Kim, Si Woo4.67400
Hughes, Mackenzie4.26400
Straka, Sepp4.17000
List, Luke4.16500
Mitchell, Keith4.07100
Schenk, Adam3.96700
Wu, Brandon 3.96300
Kucher, Matt3.96200
Power, Seamus3.96000
Ryder, Sam3.86000
Svensson, Adam3.76600
Detry,Thomas 3.76600
Griffin, Ben3.56400
Pavon, Matthieu3.47100
Moore, Taylor3.46300
Dunlap,  Nick 3.26900
Hardy, Nick2.96300
Smalley, Alex 2.86200
Fowler, Rickie2.77400
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.56100
Van Rooyen, Erik2.37000
Simpson, Webb1.86100
Murray, Grayson1.76500
Hodges, Lee 1.76000
Malnati, Peter1.76000
Spaun, JJ1.56200
Riley, Davis 0.96100
Buckley, Hayden*no ownno price

The AT&T Ownership Projections are accurate as of 5:19 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

********Leverage Plays******

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: Cantlay lowest owned in the 9K tier

Upper Mid: M Fitzpatrick just a bad weather god, good owner %

Mid Tier: CBEZ fits the course even in a typhoon

Low Tier: Adam Svensson like the metrics/ownership

My picks for The AT&T (Last week every pick made the cut)

Top Tier: Hovland

Mid Tier: Hossler

Low Tier: CBEZ

Out in Left Play: Ryder

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Cantlay

FR Leader: CBEZ (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Deep Dive Dave hit a 125-1 longshot who brought home the mega bucks. Week after week. Amazing.

***** Parting Shots *****

A friend of mine, Jim, went through a nasty bitter divorce. He gave up the house and quite a bit more. He made arrangements to pick up his last belongings while she was not there. Jim told me that he saw her walking down the sidewalk as he was leaving the subdivision and that he wanted to run her over. I looked at him and said, “I guess that gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “I’d hit that!”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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