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Before getting into our betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Bay Hill Club & Lodge, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf betting tips below.
You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.
Xander Schauffele heads the list of close contenders for the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card. I expect he will play well this week, given his correlated form at TPC Scottsdale and the US Open. Having now not won since July 2022, I simply found his odds of +1800 difficult to swallow in this class of field.
Rory McIlroy would make a very simple way to approach the week and was tempting. Especially, this is true in a week with three tournaments worthy of substantial coverage. He has looked to be trending of late, and could well go close at a golf course he very clearly loves.
Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Sports Premium Discord Monday 4 March 17:30 ET
Tommy Fleetwood
2.5u E/W +2500 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
Cam Young
2u E/W +3300 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
Matt Fitzpatrick – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3300 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
Adam Scott
2u E/W +5000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
Corey Conners
1u E/W +6000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +170 (Bet365)
Tom Hoge
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +220 (Bet365)
Lucas Glover – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +300 (Unibet)
It may seem a bit odd to begin the betting card with two golfers who have taken a pretty hard time from the industry surrounding their ability to close out a victory. Generally, I think it is fair to say the public are too harsh in such circumstances. A substantial part of luck does play a part in who can get across the line come Sunday. And I think Fleetwood fits that bill.
Fleetwood won recently on the DP World Tour at the Dubai Invitational, closing where Rory McIlroy could not. That was an exposed windy track with plenty of water in play and using bermudagrass. Although not as long as what we will find here, those parallels do remain. The simple fact for Fleetwood is more the fact he doesn’t put himself in contention enough more than his ability to finish the win.
Before the Dubai win, he had held just one 54-hole lead on the DP World Tour in 10 years. He boasts an excellent record at the US Open, finishing 5th in 2023 and an additional runner-up in 2018 and 4th in 2017. In terms of his record at Bay Hill, he finished 3rd here in 2019 alongside finishing 10th in 2017 and 2021.
A 10th when last sighted at the Genesis Invitational holds promise. Certainly, he remains one of the best approach players on tour from 200+ yards. Additionally, he has won at higher totals previously. He has only won once when scoring reached further than -19. Further, he has won three times at -11 to -12 which looks like a winning total this week. He looks like a great betting selection at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Unlike Fleetwod, Cam Young has not managed to win anywhere in the world. He had another wonderful opportunity to do so at the Dubai Desert Classic. Unfortunately, he continued to fold every opportunity he found himself once again in contention on the Sunday. Certainly, Rory McIlroy holds a fabulous record both at Bay Hill and Emirates Golf Club. He was the eventual winner ahead of Young for his 4th Dubai Desert Classic victory, but he links the two tournaments nicely.
The long and short of it is that his game looks to be in sharp shape. 4th most recently at the Cognizant Classic came on a golf course that demands his strongest club, the driver, to remain in the bag often. A recent 8th at the WM Phoenix Open is a nice correlation with TPC Scottsdale holding strong links for betting guidance to the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Two attempts at this tournament for returns of a 13th and 10th are rock solid, especially considering this was still a full-field event during those instances. His excellent approach from 200+ yards will hold him in good stead at this tournament with his putter also showing some nice signs of life. A tough test such as this may just be the spot for Cam Young to sneak past the winning post and shake the monkey off his back.
A rather easy selection on Fitzpatrick this week. Fitzpatrick is 2nd only behind Scheffler for approach from 200+ yards in this field over the last 12 months. Certainly, it comes as no surprise then that he boasts a fantastic record at Bay Hill where he has finished 27-13-MC-2-9-10-9-14.
Further ties can come from being the US Open winner in 2022 and a record at TPC Scottsdale of 10-29-15 in just three starts. Fitzpatrick has continued to add distance through his speed training and this will only be of further benefit to his chances this week in Arnold Palmer Invitational betting markets.
Fitzpatrick was more likely to be found in the mid 20s were he in any substantial recent form. However, the 21st finish last week at the Cognizant Classic did show some signs of promise with two rounds of 67 and finding himself on the wrong side of a substantial 1.5-stroke weather draw. His PGA Tour wins have come at -6 and -17. Additionally, his DP World Tour wins have all come at -19 or higher with 8/9 of them coming at -17 or higher.
I was quite surprised to find the betting number available on Adam Scott at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Fair to say, Scott has been superlative form for quite some time, finishing 20th or better since October last year.
This is the exact type of test that Scott thrives in. A prolific winner on the PGA Tour, 9/14 of his PGA Tour victories have come at -12 or higher. That is demonstrated in his 6 finishes of 14th or better at the US Open. Further, correlation can be found with most recently finishing 8th at TPC Scottsdale. That came during a tournament he has typically avoided and in only his second appearance at that event. A pair of 3rd place finishes around Bay Hill
A student of the game, history matters deeply to Scott, and winning at this historically notable tournament would be a feather in his cap he would love to add in the latter years of his professional golfing career.
It is with some minor trepidation Corey Conners is added to our Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card.
The negative, as always, is with the putter. Putting does generally have a higher weighting at this tournament historically than other PGA Tour events. As per my preview article, much of that stems from the large nature of these green complexes. That may be a cause of concern, given the ineptiude that Conners often displays with the flat-stick. Struggling at the US Open also does hold some concerns for me.
On the positive side, Conners has generally performed better with the putter here than in other performances. He finished 3rd here in 2021 when gaining 4 strokes putting. He also gained strokes putting here in 2023 and finished 11th in 2022 despite losing strokes putting. Further, he is a two-time winner at the Valero Texas Open.
In some similarity to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, that event has multi-tiered large green complexes, and lag putting can prove a real asset at that tournament. Conners ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP over 200+ yards over the last 12 months and is also strong from 150-200 yards. Those two factors see him undervalued in current betting markets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Particularly, in the Top 20 betting markets.
Hoge looks to be right at his very best with his irons of late, and arriving at a golf course where quality ball striking has been a real strength.
Finishing 17th or better in 4/6 most recent tournaments already tells a lot as to the level he is currently competing. Included within that was a 17th at TPC Scottsdale, a course where he had previously finished 14th as well. Additionally, he has a 26th and 15th-placed finish in his first two appearances at this golf course. His further three appearances haven’t been much to write home about.
However, I would note the two missed cuts both came right on the number with what can be a volatile golf course given the amount of water. Further, one of the single shot missed cuts came when losing 5 strokes putting in just two rounds on a golf course he has always gained putting in all of his 4 other appearances. Hoge ranks within the top 15 from both 200+ and 150-200 yards on approach within this field.
Recent form in signature events of 6th and 8th came on two quite different golf courses. He looks in superb touch and seems well-placed for another excellent finish this week.
Finally, we round out our betting card with a deep long-shot on Lucas Glover.
There is simply no chance that Glover would be found in the bottom 10% of the betting board was this tournament held just 6 months ago. Much of that came from some dramatic improvement with the putter; the perenially deficit found in Glover’s game.
Of promise is his prior putting form at this tournament. Glover had provided positive performances or at the field average when putting at this tournament in 9/14 appearances at Bay Hill. That has included 5 Top 20s here, all when not playing to the standard we saw in the tail-end of the 2023 season proper.
Aside from that, he is also a US Open champion and displays excellent approach metrics. Whether this test now proves a little too long given his age is what remains to be seen. However, his excellent driving accuracy and ball-striking provide a modicum of confidence he may avoid the worst of this penal test. And, at 150/1, we don’t have to pay much to find out here.
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Variance. So far the 2024 champions this year are golfers like Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap, Matthieu Pavon, Jake Knapp and others. Not exactly household names. DFS golf is probably the toughest sport to nail down. This week may offer some of the more elite golfers to actually be worth their salary. This course can expose the tiniest flaws almost as much as any course, other than The Masters. It could actually be the week where 41,600 in salary doesn’t get you the takedown. The API Ownership Projections are designed to assist you in finding top talent, that contest busting golfer and the outright and FRL along with the top 10, 20, and 40.
Win Daily Sports’ golf team works tirelessly to bring you the best intel. The Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.
Courses and Horses
This a 69 golfer field by invitation. The top 50 and ties make the cut. It will present some of the fastest greens a stimp meter can register this year. We are looking for elite true shots gained and a proximity bucket of over 200 yards. The greens are rock hard, the rough is real rough, and the hazards are just one slight roll off the green away. Forecasting light rain Wednesday evening may soften the course slightly. Some of our pool players this week are Rory, Scottie, Spieth, Aberg, Hoge, Will Z, Glover, B An and Xander.
.
Recent Results
THE Frisky Risky Biscuit. Last week our Frisky Biscuit selection lost for just the second time in 8 months. This brings our current record to 18-2. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord Golf channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!
Whether to trust the Weather
The weather is calling for stronger winds Thursday morning and Friday afternoon which gives a slight edge to the Thurs aft/Fri morning wave. Stay tuned to Win Daly Sports tonight for any weather updates.
Let’s take a look at the API Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.
| OWNERSHIP PROJECTION | OWN % | SALARY |
| Scheffler, Scottie | 30.4 | 11300 |
| McIlroy, Rory | 29.7 | 10600 |
| Aberg, Ludvig | 20.4 | 9500 |
| Hovland, Viktor | 19.7 | 9900 |
| Young, Cameron | 18.6 | 8700 |
| Burns, Sam | 17.5 | 9300 |
| Schauffele, Xander | 17.4 | 9800 |
| Fitzpatrick, Mathew | 17.1 | 8600 |
| Spieth, Jordan | 16.8 | 9400 |
| Zalatoris,Will | 16.3 | 8900 |
| Lee, Min Woo | 15.9 | 6600 |
| Morikawa, Collin | 15.3 | 9100 |
| Cantlay, Patrick | 15.2 | 10000 |
| An, Byeong | 14.3 | 7600 |
| Day, Jason | 13.8 | 8200 |
| Bradley, Keegan | 13.7 | 7400 |
| Fleetwood, Tommy | 13.2 | 8800 |
| Thomas, Justin | 12.7 | 9000 |
| Pavon, Matthieu | 12.2 | 7900 |
| Scott,Adam | 12.2 | 7500 |
| Conners, Corey | 11.9 | 7800 |
| Van Rooyen, Erik | 11.7 | 6600 |
| Homa, Max | 11.6 | 9200 |
| Theegala, Sahith | 11.5 | 8100 |
| Kirk, Chris | 11.5 | 7800 |
| Knapp, Jake | 11.4 | 7600 |
| English, Harris | 11.2 | 7300 |
| Matsuyama, Hideki | 10.7 | 8400 |
| Kitayama, Kurt | 9.9 | 7300 |
| Clark, Wyndham | 9.4 | 8500 |
| Hoge, Tom | 9.2 | 7100 |
| Henley, Russell | 8.3 | 8000 |
| Kim, Tom (Joohyung) | 7.8 | 8300 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | 7.7 | 7200 |
| Hadwin, Adam | 7.6 | 6800 |
| Im, Sungjae | 7.1 | 8000 |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 7.1 | 7200 |
| Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | 6.9 | 7000 |
| Cole, Eric | 6.8 | 7400 |
| List, Luke | 6.6 | 7000 |
| Eckroat, Austin | 6.4 | 6900 |
| Lowry, Shane | 6.3 | 7500 |
| Kim, Si Woo | 6.1 | 7700 |
| Rose, Justin | 5.9 | 6800 |
| Svensson, Adam | 5.7 | 6400 |
| Grillo, Emiliano | 5.6 | 6900 |
| Schenk, Adam | 5.5 | 6200 |
| Straka, Sepp | 5.3 | 6400 |
| Fowler, Rickie | 5.2 | 7100 |
| Davis, Cameron | 5.0 | 6700 |
| McCarthy, Denny | 4.9 | 6700 |
| Rodgers, Patrick | 4.8 | 6500 |
| Moore, Taylor | 4.7 | 6300 |
| Taylor, Nick | 4.5 | 6500 |
| Glover, Lucas | 4.4 | 6300 |
| Harman, Brian | 4.2 | 7700 |
| Poston, JT | 3.9 | 7900 |
| Dunlap, Nick | 3.7 | 6100 |
| Todd, Brendon | 3.5 | 6400 |
| Pan, CT | 2.9 | 6000 |
| Valimaki,Sami | 2.4 | 6200 |
| Putnam, Andrew | 2.2 | 6300 |
| Lower, Justin | 2.2 | 6200 |
| Simpson, Webb | 2.1 | 6000 |
| Hughes, Mackenzie | 1.8 | 6100 |
| Power, Seamus | 1.4 | 6100 |
| Hodges, Lee | 1.2 | 6100 |
| Murray, Grayson | 0.6 | 6000 |
| Ford, David | 0.1 | 6000 |
These API projections are accurate as of 5:53 EST. Top tier golfers will show a higher % by lock.
My Picks for The API
Top Tier: Scheffler
Mid Tier: Fitzpatrick
Low Tier: Hoge
Out in Left Play: Taylor Moore
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky
FR Leader: English
FR Leader: Fowler (Contrarian)
What to listen to
Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports. Recently Stix of Stix Picks picked up 10,000 in a golf contest and helped a brand new Win Daily member win 6,000. It’s on Tuesday evenings on Apple/Spotify.
What to Watch
Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! They both continue to defy the odds with consistent winning along with Spencer of Tee off Sports.
***** Parting Shots *****
Jesus was spelling St. Peter at The Pearly Gates when an old man came up and asked “Is this Heaven?” “Yes it is” Jesus replied. “Oh great” said the old man, “now maybe I can find my son”. Jesus said “I’ll be glad to help, let me get some background info.” What did you do on earth?” What can you tell me about you and your son?” ” I was a carpenter, my son left home sometime ago, I even heard that he had died, but I also know how good he was and that he’s in heaven somewhere” the old man explained. Jesus said “please describe him so I can assist your search.” The old man stated “Oh, he’ll be easy to recognize, He has nail holes in his hands and his feet.” Jesus thought for a moment, hmm, carpenter, left home, separated from family, nail holes in hands and feet, he dropped down and raised his arms and said ‘PAPA!” The old man, tears in his eyes, thrust out his hands and cried, “Pinocchio!!!”
As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!
Before delving into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, thank you for your understanding with missing the article last week. Sometimes life gets in the way, and a combination of some recent minor surgery and a house move meant the full golf coverage needed to go by the wayside. Thank you for all the kind words.
PGA National bared its teeth again, not just for the players but also for our selections. A little unlucky as Noren missed a place payout for us by one shot at +1200. However, we cashed his Top 20 at +240. Sam Ryder (150/1) was also in contention for a juicy +3000 place for most of the tournament. He slipped down the field Saturday to miss the Top 20 by one, with a bogey on the final hole. As a consolation, we cashed the Top 40 on him at +190.
We return to a happy hunting ground. Bay Hill has been kind to us for the last couple of years. The highlight was hitting Kurt Kitayama as the winner in 2023 alongside a full place on Hatton in 4th. But also, 2022 was an excellent event for our tips. Gary Woodland looked a likely winner at 80/1 before a double bogey-bogey finish saw him finish in 5th just 2 shots off the winning mark. We complimented that with Viktor Hovland and Lucas Herbert both finishing in the top 7 as well.
Alongside all our Arnold Palmer Invitational betting tips, we just posted another Masters future of 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. Jump in and receive all sport Premium access for just $1 for your first week. Simply use PROMO code “DOLLAR” at check-out when you join at this link.
Preparation is key at The Masters.
The same goes for you.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses one of the highest correlations on the PGA Tour of prior course form to success. Only Augusta National, Riviera Country Club, and TPC Scottsdale have a higher connection. This penal, difficult test does have a few nuances that explain this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.
You will hear a lot about driving distance being key this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact at face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Rather, the extremely juicy 3 in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape. Driving distance is a factor of club head speed, which is extremely helpful on long approach shots from rough.
That is reiterated by the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play are the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, the longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hands. Therefore, allowing for a higher apex for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and fast green complexes.
Fairways are reasonably wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300-yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. Green complexes are very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. The uptick in putting performance is predominantly because precisely where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR. Additionally, the lengthened approach shots into many holes can result in longer putts to be made.
As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part of any Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Do take a look at round 4 from the 2022 tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on Saturday.
There are a few additional courses that can guide your thinking. As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those host venues can provide guidance. Host of the 2022 PGA Championship Southern Hills holds similar metrics and was also a windy event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both demanding long approach play but the reasonably large fairways where there is a significant penalty if straying too far.
Before diving into our weather preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we need to speak about the tournament format. This is the same situation as we saw recently at the Genesis Invitational. 69 players are competing this week. The top 50 players and ties will make the cut or any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes.
Although this means there is unlikely to be a weather wave edge, weather can still have a positive influence on your selections. Florida has an El Nino weather pattern, where winter is unusually cold and wet. There has been additional torrential rain recently, best highlighted by the necessity to delay to a Monday finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Wednesday should see more heavy rain the day before the tournament starts. Scoring should still be high, but perhaps all the rain will see conditions play a bit softer than we usually see at this event.
Additionally, heavy winds are forecast on Saturday. Sunday also has the chance for high winds depending when thunderstorms occur. Our selections were influenced by these factors when compiling our betting tips for the week.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article here or the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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Thank you for reading my Arnold Palmer Invitational preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
It has been the year of the long-shot on the #PGATour, with nearly every winner in 2024 being priced 100/1 or longer!
We have already hit two of them this year! David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) successfully tipped Pavon at a HUGE 125/1 and Spence (@TeeOffSports) snatched Clark at MASSIVE odds of 100/1.
The crew are back to join the crew as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader picks.
The PGA Draft Cast is the only show on YouTube where YOU the audience draft a six-golfer PGA DFS line-up alongside the experts! The format is a standard snake-style draft. Audience members nominate their favorite plays in the chat and the first golfer to be named a second time is the audience’s pick.
Follow Sia (@SiaNejad), David (@deepdivegolf), Joel (@DraftMasterFlex) and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) on Twitter.
This past Sunday Hideki smoked the field with a surprising 62 and a win at the Genesis. No player in the top 10 PIP (player impact program) has won this year. None. The only player in the top 20 to win a tourney is Wyndham Clark. Lesser known Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap, and Mathieu Pavon all won. Dunlap would have made a media stir being an amatuer but it happened on the busiest weekend in the NFL. There is more uncertainty in golf this year. Lot’s more. Win Daily Sports can ease your DFS and betting nerves. We are the Zen and Zanax for your serious sweats. The Mexico Ownership Projections are designed to assist in finding top talent, that leverage breaking golfer and the outright, along with the top 10, 20, and 40.
Brilliance is what the golf staff at Win Daily Sports strives for. We deliver. We work tirelessly to bring you the best intel. The Mexico Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, to find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.
Courses and Horses
Most think that Vidanta is made for the longest drivers and best SGOT. It is true. The par 4s and 5s are the longest on any PGA course. Long hitters do pretty well here. Maybe we can also peek at the 200++ approach shots. The proximity buckets here are 175-200 and especially 200+ and 200++. The best approach players in this weaker field are Finau, Hoffman, Tosti and Hisatune. The best putters here are Finau, Smalley and Gordon.
Recent Results
THE Frisky Risky Biscuit. Last week our 3 Biscuit selections finished 2nd, 8th and 24th. The lowest priced- least picked golfers. 2nd. 8th. 24th. This pushes our record to 17-1 last 18. Patrick Cantlay was our top leverage play as well. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord Golf channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!
Whether to trust the Weather
The weather is calling for light winds through Friday and good calm conditions. Stay tuned to Win Daly Sports tonight for any weather updates.
Let’s take a look at the Mexico Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.
| OWNERSHIP PROJECTION | OWN % | SALARY |
| Finau, Tony | 36.7 | 12000 |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 25.3 | 10700 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | 18.1 | 9800 |
| Pendrith, Taylor | 17.4 | 9600 |
| Detry,Thomas | 16.6 | 10100 |
| Mitchell, Keith | 16.3 | 9900 |
| Thompson, Davis | 16.2 | 8900 |
| Stevens, Sam | 13.9 | 7100 |
| Wu, Brandon | 13.8 | 9100 |
| Knapp, Jake | 13.3 | 8700 |
| Olesen, Thorbjorn | 12.5 | 10300 |
| Van Rooyen, Erik | 12.4 | 9500 |
| Grillo, Emiliano | 11.7 | 11100 |
| Kim, Michael | 11.1 | 8200 |
| Rodgers, Patrick | 10.9 | 9700 |
| Eckroat, Austin | 10.7 | 8000 |
| Tosti, Alejandro | 10.2 | 7800 |
| Gotterup, Christopher | 10.1 | 7100 |
| Fox, Ryan | 9.9 | 9300 |
| Norrman, Vincent | 9.9 | 7600 |
| Kim, SH (Seonghyeon) | 9.8 | 7900 |
| Vegas, Jhonattan | 9.7 | 7600 |
| Champ, Cameron | 9.6 | 8600 |
| McNealy, Maverick | 9.5 | 8100 |
| Ghim, Doug | 9.2 | 8800 |
| Hubbard, Mark | 9.1 | 9000 |
| Rai, Aaron | 8.8 | 8500 |
| Bramlett, Joseph | 8.6 | 6800 |
| Hisatsune, Ryo | 8.3 | 9200 |
| Sigg, Greyson | 7.8 | 7200 |
| Young, Carson | 7.7 | 7400 |
| Smalley, Alex | 7.4 | 7500 |
| Wallace, Matt | 7.1 | 7400 |
| Coody, Parker | 6.6 | 6500 |
| Spaun, JJ | 6.5 | 7200 |
| Yuan, Carl | 5.9 | 6200 |
| Lee, KH | 5.8 | 7500 |
| Lashley, Nate | 5.6 | 7700 |
| Higgo, Garrick | 5.6 | 6700 |
| Duncan, Tyler | 5.4 | 6900 |
| Valimaki,Sami | 5.4 | 6700 |
| Hughes, Mackenzie | 4.9 | 9400 |
| Kim, Chan | 4.9 | 6500 |
| Suh, Justin | 4.8 | 8300 |
| Tarren, Callum | 4.8 | 5600 |
| Dougherty, Kevin | 4.8 | 5500 |
| Lower, Justin | 4.7 | 6100 |
| Novak, Andrew | 4.6 | 7000 |
| Hall, Harry | 4.4 | 6800 |
| Whaley, Vincent | 4.4 | 6500 |
| Shelton, Robby | 4.4 | 6300 |
| Schmid, Matti (Matthias) | 4.4 | 6200 |
| Perez, Victor | 4.3 | 6700 |
| MacIntyre, Robert | 4.2 | 7000 |
| Kohles, Ben | 4.1 | 6400 |
| Greyserman, Max | 4.1 | 5900 |
| Hadley, Chesson | 3.9 | 7700 |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | 3.8 | 6600 |
| Dumont de Chassart, Adrien | 3.7 | 6300 |
| Coody, Pierceson | 3.6 | 5500 |
| Stallings, Scott | 3.4 | 7300 |
| Wu, Dylan | 3.3 | 6900 |
| Highsmith, Joe | 3.3 | 6600 |
| Daffue, MJ | 3.2 | 5800 |
| Springer, Hayden | 3.2 | 5700 |
| Riley, Davis | 2.9 | 6500 |
| NeSmith, Matthew | 2.9 | 6200 |
| Hoffman, Charley | 2.7 | 8400 |
| Kizzire, Patton | 2.6 | 6800 |
| Hoey, Rico | 2.6 | 5300 |
| Griffin, Lanto | 2.4 | 6100 |
| Meissner, Mac | 2.4 | 5600 |
| Bjork, Alexander | 2.3 | 7300 |
| Molinari, Francesco | 2.3 | 6100 |
| Palmer, Ryan | 2.2 | 6400 |
| Del Solar, Christobal | 2.2 | 6400 |
| Burgoon, Bronson | 2.2 | 6000 |
| Crowe, Trace | 2.1 | 5700 |
| Campos, Rafael | 1.9 | 6300 |
| Ramey, Chad | 1.9 | 6000 |
| Barjon, Paul | 1.9 | 5700 |
| Trainer, Martin | 1.9 | 5400 |
| Hahn, James | 1.9 | 5300 |
| Taylor, Ben | 1.9 | 5100 |
| Lipsky, David | 1.8 | 5500 |
| Norlander, Henrik | 1.6 | 6000 |
| Fishburn, Patrick | 1.6 | 5900 |
| Merritt, Troy | 1.6 | 5900 |
| Campillo, Jorge | 1.5 | 6400 |
| Barnes, Erik | 1.5 | 6100 |
| Furr, Wilson | 1.5 | 5600 |
| Endycott, Harrison | 1.4 | 6300 |
| Silverman, Ben | 1.4 | 6200 |
| Phillips, Chandler | 1.4 | 5900 |
| Whitney, Tom | 1.4 | 5700 |
| McCormick, Ryan | 1.4 | 5500 |
| Baddeley, Aaron | 1.3 | 6600 |
| Chappell, Kevin | 1.3 | 6000 |
| Xiong, Norman | 1.3 | 5800 |
| Echavarria, Nico | 1.3 | 5500 |
| Malnati, Peter | 1.2 | 5900 |
| Piercy, Scott | 1.2 | 5300 |
| Stanger, Jimmy | 1.1 | 6100 |
| Sloan, Roger | 1.1 | 5600 |
| Moore, Ryan | 0.9 | 6000 |
| Brehm, Ryan | 0.9 | 5100 |
| Ortiz, Alvaro | 0.7 | 5200 |
| Atkins, Matt | 0.7 | 5100 |
| Biondi, Fred | 0.6 | 5800 |
| Pan, CT | 0.6 | 5700 |
| Morales, Omar (a) | 0.6 | 5400 |
| Hale Jr., Blaine | 0.5 | 5400 |
| Diaz, Roberto | 0.5 | 5300 |
| Snedeker, Brandt | 0.5 | 5200 |
| Harrington, Padraig | 0.4 | 5800 |
| Alexander, Tyson | 0.4 | 5600 |
| Skinns, David | 0.4 | 5400 |
| Reavie, Chez | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Vazques, Sebastian | 0.3 | 5100 |
| Teater, Josh | 0.2 | 5400 |
| Pereda, Raul | 0.2 | 5000 |
| Gutschewski, Scott | 0.1 | 5200 |
| Macdonald, Stuart | 0.1 | 5200 |
| Holmes, JB | 0.1 | 5000 |
| Stanley, Preston | 0.0 | 5300 |
| Knowles, Philip | 0.0 | 5200 |
| Cazaubon, Rodolfo | 0.0 | 5100 |
| Safa, Jose Antonio (a) | 0.0 | 5000 |
| Sigel, Ben | 0.0 | 5000 |
| Naula, Renato (a) | 0.0 | 5000 |
| Wylie, Austin | 0.0 | 5000 |
| De La Fuente, Santiago (a) | 0.0 | 5700 |
The Mexico Ownership Projections are accurate as of 5:39 EST. *****Top Golfers will show a higher % by lock.*****
*******Leverage Plays******
Each week we will have 5 leverage plays. These are pivots to strengthen your teams. Here are this weeks candidates:
Upper Tier: Detry
Mid Tier: Thompson, Ghim
Low Tier: Norrman
Bottom Feeder: Novak
My Picks for The Mexico Open
Top Tier: Hojgaard
Mid Tier: S H Kim
Low Tier: Sigg
Out in Left Play: M Kim
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky
FR Leader: Ghim
FR Leader: Gotterup (Contrarian)
What to listen to
Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports. Recently Stix of Stix Picks picked up 10,000 in a golf contest and helped a brand new Win Daily member win 6,000. It’s on Tuesday evenings on Apple/Spotify and is certainly worth 30 minutes of your time.
What to Watch
Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! They both continue to defy the odds with consistent winning along with Spencer of Tee off Sports. Joel continues to draft players who withdraw voluntarily-or not.
***** Parting Shots *****
An EMT was working overtime on his 3rd straight shift. To top it off he had an argument with his girlfriend before he had started the first one. His ambulance crew was called out to the worst wreck they’d ever seen. Cars mangled almost beyond recognition, body parts flung everywhere, just gruesome. He took a body bag and started picking up mixed pieces of what used to be human beings, careful not to disturb anything for the accident investigators. All of a sudden a woman came up screaming, “Oh my god! That’s my husbands car! This is my neighborhood! “Where is he? Where is my husband?” She managed to shake off an officer trying to slow her and she ran right up into the EMT’s face. “WHERE IS HE? Where’s My Husband!! WHERE IS MY HUSBAND?!!” The EMT had enough. He finally broke down, snapped and started shaking. No sleep in 24 hours, problems at home, just a mess. He stomped over to the body bag, reached in and felt hair, he grabbed it, pulled out a head, and screamed back,” IS THIS HIM? IS THIS YOUR HUSBAND?! IS IT?” She looked up, eyes wide, and said,….. ” no, he’s much taller.”
As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!
The #PGATour gave us some interesting moments last week, but we still managed to hit on some matchups. This week looks to be much more profitable.
After a swing of tournaments in the Middle East, the DP World Tour ventures to their second preview of Africa for the Magical Kenya Open. This tournament is always a lot of fun and has produced some thrilling finishes. Much of that comes down to the golf course, as we preview the Magical Kenya Open host Muthaiga Golf Club.
The difference between Muthaiga and the PGA Tour Mexico Open venue this week, Vidanta Vallarta, are that they are as polar opposite to each other as they are geographically. This got me thinking about many of the DP World Tour players who have made their way to Mexico this week. Someone like Bjork could be much more suited to the course in Kenya than the one he will face this week.
Perhaps we will see a trend develop in time, with those who hold duel access selecting where they play more on the venue than which Tour is on first glance seemingly paying the most money. It is certainly interesting times we are living in for those of us in the golf industry.
The specific nature of the course this week can produce wonderful opportunities for mismatches in rounds 3 and 4 matchups, where you can get two golfers with quite different player profiles who have achieved their score via different means. Keep an eye on the WinDaily Premium Discord for opportunities as we spot them!
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Onto a preview of the golf course then, where the Magical Kenya Open returns once again to Muthaiga Golf Club.
It is very important to note to use course history this week. Despite hosting events in Kenya since 1967, the event has alternated between Muthaiga and Karen Country Club. 2022 and 2023 were both held at the current venue, as were 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour. 2019 and 2021 were played at Karen CC, as were Challenge Tour events from 2013-2016. You get the idea. Although I wouldn’t totally discount form at Karen, this is quite a different test.
I’ll note the Seve factor as well. How often do you see a winning Spanish golfer commenting how “Seve Ballesteros won at this course” and that provided inspiration for them? The effect is real and provides such huge emotional motivation for Spanish players. Seve won this event back in 1978 at Muthaiga and we have seen other Spaniards play well here since. This includes last year’s winner, Jorge Campillo.
Although on paper the golf course looks long enough at 7,228 yards for a par 71, bear in mind that Nairobi is at an altitude of 6,000 feet. That sees the golf ball travel quite significantly further in the air. In fact, the distance increase is up to 20% in the modern age of golf ball technology.
Where Muthaiga gets it’s defense is in the extremely narrow nature of the course. There is barely in runout from the fairway before you are in the towering trees.
Past champion Jeremy Robinson said: “Muthaiga is a narrow course – I think they’ve changed a few of the holes but I remember that being the overriding factor, it being narrow. You had to drive the ball straight because the rough was pretty thick and it wasn’t a long course, even in those days. Hit the ball straight, get used to the grain on the greens, the different grasses, and it’s more of a thinker’s course, unlike a lot of the courses today that favour longer hitters.”
Robinson went on to note how the unique grass types and nature of the course would prove difficult on debut; a sentiment I largely agree with.
It is no wonder then that we have seen some of the straightest hitters on tour find success here. Other links can be found in those who have played well at altitude previously. Perhaps the ability to best adjust to yardages plays a factor there. Greens are very small and scoring should not get out of control.
Strangely enough, one of the better course comps for our Magical Kenya Open preview comes from the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre is of course also played at altitude, but is a narrow course emphasising driving accuracy and small greens. Soderberg has found success on both courses, with Thriston Lawrence winning at Crans and runner-up at Muthaiga both on debut.
Valderrama is a very narrow, tree-lined test that has favoured the accurate drivers with sharp approach play. Players such as Kinhult link the two, finishing 8th at Muthaiga and 6th at Valderrama later that year. Catlin finished 15th on debut appearance at Muthaiga, a fine performance for a first start, and holds a record at Valderrama of W-11-11.
Le Golf National asks similar questions, but in a different way. The penalty at the Open de France host for a wayward driver is often a watery end. Again, greens are small with penalty severe for a miss. Kinhult also has a 5th there. He may well have made the Magical Kenya Open preview betting card had he shown any glimpse of form in the last 6 months. Julien Brun has gone 13-7 at Muthaiga and 13-6 at Le Golf National. It should provide a fascinating host course for the 2024 Paris Olympics, but is a handy guide for our Magical Kenya Open preview.
High winds are forecast for Nairobi to begin the week. Wind gusts above 30mph are no joke, even with some protection from the tall trees on this property.
Some rain is set to develop on Friday afternoon. As long as this does not become too severe this could prove beneficial in softening the greens, which can play pretty fast at times. If the rain becomes heavy in conjunction with the wind, it could become very difficult.
As the winds are quite consistent all day, I don’t think a substantial weather edge will develop for week long. You may see a small edge for those playing Thursday AM/Friday PM if light rain softens and slows greens. The caveat for that will come from the level of rain experienced Friday afternoon. For DFS purposes, I think a case could be made for building a number of line-ups in each direction to provide protection and leverage on the field.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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Thank you for reading my Magical Kenya Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
Before getting into our betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Muthaiga Golf Club, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Magical Kenya Open golf betting tips below.
You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.
As always, those who made the short-list before being unceremoniously ripped out because of some perceived short-coming. As mentioned in my Magical Kenya Open preview article, Kinhult may have made the betting card given his seamless course correlations. However, he has been truly dreadful over the past 6 months. Even the smallest glimmer of what looked like a golf swing could well have seen him included.
Kazuki Higa (80/1) is one who is an accurate driver and could do well here. He was last sighted finishing 11th in Mauritius and boasts a 6th in the Open de France along with a 36th at Crans in just one start at both events. Having not played since December does raise some questions as to where he has been and the state of his game. As mentioned, the Seve factor can play a small part in decisions. Both Santiago Tarrio (100/1) and Angel Hidalgo (125/1) due some attention. Tarrio is on a 26-3 record here last two starts. Hidalgo finished 17th on debut here and holds a 4th at the correlated Valderrama.
Jamie Donaldson (125/1) drew consideration as well. He is excellent in the wind and some fair old gusts are forecast this week. He has a 3rd, 7th, and 9th at Crans as well as a 5th, 6th, and 6th at Le Golf National and a 4th and 10th at Valderrama. His price was slightly a tad too long, when hoping for a longer price on a golfer making his debut appearance at Muthaiga and only showing glimmers of form his last couple of starts.
Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Premium Discord Monday 19 Feb at 06:00AM ET
Thriston Lawrence – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
5u E/W +1600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
Aaron Cockerill
2u E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Adrian Otaegui
2u E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
“Nacho” Ignacio Mijares Elvira
1u E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +260 (Bet365)
Masahiro Kawamura – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
1u E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +280 (Bet365)
Matthias Schwab
0.5u E/W +14000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +475 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +170 (Bet365)
Long-term readers of these pages will be well aware it is rare for me to go heavy up the top of a betting board. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. With large fields of up to 156 players, golf betting provides some of the best opportunities for leverage over the bookmaker.
It should come to attention when I do so. Although not the shortest odds we have ever taken, South African Thriston Lawrence presents an extremely appealing profile this week. He is worthy of a 10 unit total stake at 16/1. That represents a third of our total stake this week, allowed for by reducing to 6 selections and weighting accordingly.
The course form and correlated performances are impeccable. Lawrence finished 2nd here in his sole appearance. He then went on to win at Crans-sur-Sierre 5 months later. He also holds a 6th at Valderrama and a 20th and 35th at Le Golf National.
After a major deep-dive into a basically new golf course at the Dubai Invitational, I mentioned correlation to those similar courses. Lawrence was mentioned and duly finished 2nd alongside Rory McIlroy and just behind Tommy Fleetwood. A small drop-off in form holds some minor concerns.
However, a return to the motherland of Africa where he has done some of his best may well revitalize him. Perhaps most pleasing with Lawrence is that when in contention, he so often finds a way to win. 4 wins in 2022 and 2023 demonstrate as such. Two of those wins came in Africa. Let’s hope he can add a third this week.
Aaron Cockerill is in superb form of late. I have been waiting specifically for the Magical Kenya Open to betting him. It nearly cost us a big drop in odds here, as were he to have completed a victory the inevitable plunge would’ve occurred.
Since 3rd December, Cockerill played 5 consecutive tournaments finishing 25th or better. Most notably for me was the 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 6th at the Bahrain Championship, and 23rd at Ras Al Khaimah Championship. All present as bomber paradises, which is certainly not Cockerill’s game. It is always worthy of attention when a golfer performs on golf courses away from his baseline skills. It suggests a great opportunity when playing on a golf course that should suit.
That is exactly what Cockerill finds this week. The last 3 months he is 20th for accuracy in this field but just 55th for distance. He also ranks 9th for SG: APP, 5th for SG: ATG, and 13th for SG: Putting. Basically, were it not for a lack of driving distance he probably would’ve already notched a win this season.
Of course, that is not an issue at Muthaiga and his driving accuracy and approach prowess can fully shine. The 2nd on debut in 2022 here hopefully preludes a win this week.
Moving down the board, we find Adrian Otaegui languishing as long as 50/1. Much of that has to do with a fall off in performance of late. I hold less concerns than most, given so many of those courses are simply unsuitable for his game. He is an extremely short hitter, sitting 111/156 in this field for driving distance but 3rd for accuracy over the last year. This is a much better fit.
That is demonstrated by a 20th at the Dubai Invitational coming on a track that demanded accuracy. Form of 34-30 is decent enough for the Spaniard. His win in 2022 at Valderrama alongside an 11th and 17th there is another key indicator of his suitability. Additionally, his form at the Open de France is superb with results of 7-12-MC-13-16 in his last 5 starts at Le Golf National.
I’m happy to include him in my Magical Kenya Open golf betting tips off the back of his course suitability and happily accept his long odds. He would be much closer to 25/1 had he shown anything closer to his average performance of late.
We continue with another Spaniard with the bang in-form Nacho Elvira. He arrives having gained significantly on approach in his last three starts. That is the first time he has gained on approach for three straight tournaments since 2021.
A 40th in his first look here was far from disgraceful at what can be a tricky course on first look. He holds great credentials from Crans-sur-Sierre with a 4th, 9th, and 13th there when nowhere near the form we find him now. That suits that both the high altitude and fiddly ball-striking required could match perfectly this week.
I also appreciate with Elvira that his short-game should come to the form is the winds remain as strong as forecast. His ability to scramble and make putts could prove invaluable down the stretch with the inevitable missed greens this week.
Much like Cockerill, I had this event lined up for Kawamura for some time. The 7th placed finish at the long Emirates Golf Club was impressive, losing strokes off the tee simply from his driving distance. A 16th when last sighted in a windy Qatar Masters was also noteworthy.
It could be as simple as pointing these two performances out alongside a runner-up finish here in 2023 to make our case. But further strength can be found in his comp course performances. Valderrama he has gone 39-8-37-21 and at Crans-sur-Sierre 21-9-8 in his last three starts there.
Over the last 12 months, Kawamura is 20th for accuracy and 10th for SG: APP in this field. He looks a fabulous bet at anything 55/1 and longer.
Finally, I made some space on my Magical Kenya Open betting card for Matthias Schwab. Touted as one of the next big products of the DP World Tour, he has really struggled the last two years on the PGA Tour. This standard of field should be much more to his liking.
His best PGA Tour performances have almost always come on courses that favour accuracy. 11th at Silverado, 9th at TPC Louisiana, 21st at Mayakoba, 16th at TPC Deere Run, and 7th at the Honda Classic come to mind.
We need to deep-dive a bit further into Schwab’s history as a result. In 2019 he finished 8th around Crans-sur-Sierre and in 2021 had a 15th place finish at Valderrama. A 12th in the DP World Tour flagship BMW PGA Championship came in elite company just before departing for the PGA. Wentworth is far from the worst comp course, with Aaron Rai having finished runner-up there and a winner on this course on the Challenge Tour in 2017.
It was on the Challenge Tour I found the most interesting nugget for Schwab. He played on this course in 2018 and finished 8th in his only look. That came despite a dreadful opening round of 76 (+5). In fact, nobody was better from Friday-Sunday. On the face of it this profiles as a golfer playing his first tournament on African grasses on a tricky course to figure out, before learning quickly and finding it extremely suitable to his game.
The last time we found a near identical profile was betting Daniel Hillier at the British Masters. He played at The Belfry on the Challenge Tour opening with a 73 (+1) before shooting the best combined score for the remaining three rounds. And we all know what happened with that bet…
Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my Magical Kenya Open betting tips.
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What a finish to the Genesis Invitational! You have to feel for all the Patrick Cantlay backers, who would’ve been ready to cash their tickets on Friday evening with the substantial lead he had established. Along with those on Cantlay, it was a bit of a frustrating week for our selections. Both Burns and Scott endured slow starts before finding their rhythm and finishing 10th and 15th respectively. Very poor final rounds from our long-shot selections Hossler (80/1) and Kitayama (100/1) saw them move from inside the Top 20 to miss out on the Top 20 bets. Fortunately, our final round match-up bets came through in a big way. We went 4/5 to restore some profit on the week. We only post match-ups rarely, when we see a definitive edge develop in our data. There may be more from our Mexico Open preview, with some particular quirks to this course.
It was quite some final round for Hideki Matsuyama, whose Masters price has subsequently crashed in from 50s into 28s. We actually just posted our first Masters future of 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. It is well worth considering the promo highlighted above. We are basically giving away our product at 2 months for the price of 1, meaning it is just $49.99 for ALL sports Premium access. Simply use PROMO code “MASTERS” at check-out when you join at this link.
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The same goes for you.
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As mentioned for our Mexico Open preview, this quirky course has some fairly key indicators for what is required to play well. That leads to many opportunities in betting markets and, also, in the round match-ups.
This is a resort style golf course that was never designed to be played by PGA Tour golfers. The setup is relatively easy and you are going to need to shoot low to be victorious this week. Playing at 7,456 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Bear in mind, the course is also at sea level. It will play every inch of that distance with no benefit from altitude. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average.
In 2022, of the top 14 players 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance. Additionally, 9 of the top 14 players were in top 20 and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. It should come as no surprise for our Mexico Open preview that driving distance is ranked highly.
This also has an impact on approach shots. You will see a disproportionate number of shots with long irons this week. 35% of all iron shots will occur from over 200+ yards. Additionally, the 175-200 yard range sees another big uptick in correlation.
Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be completely without speaking about grass type. This is paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to play very slow. We have seen a number of paspalum grass specialists develop over the years.
On the face of it, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. Bear in mind though, the Mexico Open has only hosted two events here so it has only been a brief preview into this course. Additionally, as it is regarded as a lesser field event there is quite a large transition in the field each rendition. We may see more correlation develop in time.
One of the best golf courses to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is Corales Golf Club. The course sits at a 7,670 yards par 72. Host of the Corales Puntacana Championship, it is another long golf course featuring paspalum. The new host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is another long 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum greens.
Another worthy of preview in a Mexico Open analysis is Grand Reserve Country Club. Host of the Puerto Rico Open, it is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events. Akshay Bhatia also links these nicely.
The benefit of both of these courses is they not only take in similar agronomy, but also tick the box of exposed tropical golf courses. They are also more likely to feature common players, being alternate field events, to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.
Finally, some cases can be made for Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour events. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, and the Astara Championship was in Colombia last week. All bear consideration. For the DP World Tour, Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp. It is a long track dominated by bombers with above average size greens, and features paspalum greens
The only other potential defense to this course, other than length, is the wind. Just as we saw last year, there is very little in the forecast. It is worth bearing in mind for DFS Showdown purposes that the AM is likely to provide the most advantage.
Given the exposed nature of this coastal track, wind gusts in the mid-teens are sufficient to put a slight dampener on rampant scoring. Overall, the on-shore breeze looks to consistently arrive around midday. However, as this consistent daily there is unlikely to be any tangible weather edge for week long selections.
If you play DFS showdown, my recommendation would be to look to the morning in nearly all instances.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Mexico Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.
Two months to go to The Masters!
JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code MASTERS and get Two Months for the Price of One!
That is just $49.99! For EVERYTHING!
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value!
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.
Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
