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Texas Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Valero Texas Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC San Antonio, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Valero Texas Open golf betting tips below.

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Valero Texas Open Honourable Mentions

As always, we like to save a section of this article for our fallen comrades who didn’t quite make the Valero Texas Open betting card.

I thought long and hard about adding Jordan Spieth this week. His course record at the Valero Texas Open speaks for itself, and he is priced at reasonable odds in betting markets. That largely comes from some indifferent iron play in his last two tournament starts, where he lost on approach in both. This was enough to see him excluded narrowly.

From the middle of the betting board, Schenk looks to have the game for the Valero Texas Open. He ticks the key approach metrics of both under 100 yards and over 200 yards for the last 12 months, as noted in our course preview. That is evident in his 7th placed finish here in 2019. He also ticks the course comps with 17th and 23rd at TPC Scottsdale recently and a 3rd, 12th, 18th, and 20th at TPC Summerlin. However, it has been an indifferent start to the year for him. He has gained on approach in just 3 of 10 starts this year. I’d like see a return to form with his ball-striking and some consistency before we go there again.

Justin Lower looks to be coming back into some ball-striking form and was 28th last week when recovering from a poor first round. The weighting on SG: ATG was a negative correlation for him here. Finally, the approach numbers from Alexander Bjork always make him a darling in my model. He is also strongest from under 100 yards and over 200+ yards, which is perfect for here. Losing on approach for 3/4 most recent starts, including being -5.28 for SG: APP in two rounds last week, was the concern.

Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips

Updated Tuesday 10PM ET with best odds
Suggested Staking

Brian Harman – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3000 (Various with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Harris English
2u E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2u E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Lucas Glover
0.75u E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +350

Andrew Putnam
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +333

Brendon Todd
0.5u E/W +10000 (BetVictor with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +375
And
2u Top 40 +170

Nate Lashley – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +600
And
2.5u Top 40 +210

Valero Texas Open Betting Player Profiles

It is an intriguing betting board for the Valero Texas Open. Notably, having Scheffler missing in the market makes for a different construction of where the weighting and value may lie. As noted in my preview article, I quietly hope Rory McIlroy plays poorly this week. I suspect even he wouldn’t want the attention that were to come at The Masters should he win this week.

Aberg looks an obvious threat. I actually bet him at this event as an amateur priced at 300/1. However, the paltry betting odds are sufficient to bypass him for the Texas Open as well as Matsuyama. I will have exposure to both in DFS markets.

Brian Harman – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

I instead arrived back at Brian Harman. He produced for us at The Players Championship, when tipped at 80/1 and finishing runner-up. He led the field in SG: APP for the tournament. Losing such a big event to Scottie Scheffler by a single stroke to force a play-off would’ve stung. I surmised it could take a bit to recover from, so was unsurprised and can forgive the subsequent missed cut at the Valspar.

Harman ticks a lot of the boxes this week and looks value having drifted from opening odds. Over the last 12 months in this field he ranks 10th for SG: ATG, 5th for SG: Putt, and 23rd for driving accuracy to be 9th for SG: Total. That comes despite often giving up some significant length OTT, which is less of a- worry here.

His first three starts here were a 18-22-16 run. Comp form is also solid. He has a 2nd at the Greg Norman designed El Cameleon, 15th at TPC Summerlin, and 14th at TPC Scottsdale in 2022. Further, he carries that to the strongest correlated tournament in The American Express. He also finished 3rd there in 2022, complimenting another previous 3rd and 11th at that course.

He arrives now with a proven record of winning in windy conditions in a major and in fantastic form. All adds up to a delicious recipe that I am happy to devour on current odds.

Harris English

I actually hold some concerns about this selection. Not because I think he will play poorly. Rather, that I fear English will play well this week. That would see a huge cut in his current Masters odds of 200/1, which I think provide a viable dark horse.

English has been in superlative form of late. Four consecutive finishes of 21st or better has been delivered through increasing gains in SG: APP. His strongest approach buckets also come from both wedge in hand and with long irons.

Already a winner on a Greg Norman design, he was victorious at El Cameleon in 2014. he has since followed that up with a pair of 5th place finishes in 2020 and 2021. Further suitability can be found at TPC Scottsdale, where he has a 3rd, 9th, 15th and 16th, and at TPC Summerlin with a 4th and 16th there.

He has also demonstrated an aptitude in tough conditions. Perhaps best demonstration of this is in the US Open, where he has 3 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts. Ranking 17th for SG: ATG and 6th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 6 months, that should hold him good stead if the winds do get up later in the week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Much like Bjork, Bezuidenhout is a perennial model darling who again finds his way into these pages.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout his just hitting the ball at a much higher level than many people give him credit for. He actually ranks 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the last 6 months and 1st over the last 3 months. That is no small feat in a field that includes the likes of McIlroy, Aberg, Matsuyama, Spieth, Morikawa, and Conners. He gains across the board on approach. However, again his strongest areas come from the key approach metrics.

Bezuidenhout arrives at this tournament after a superb 13th at The Players (where he was 4th for SG: APP), which he backed up with a 9th at the Valspar Championship. Notably, he was 2nd earlier in the year at The American Express where he was also 11th and 40th in his only other two appearances there.

He finished 28th in his solitary appearance at this tournament. That is another good indication. Especially, for a course which has shown to hold strong prior connections and players have benefitted from a look at.

Lucas Glover

If the key to success at TPC San Antonio is being an excellent ball-striker, accurate off the tee, and a firm member of Team No-Putt, then no name jumps to mind faster than Lucas Glover.

Glover has made notable gains in the last year not just with his putting, but also ATG. He has now gained around the green in 7/8 of his most recent starts, including a massive +6.28 SG: ATG last week. He surprisingly ranks 12th in this field over the last 6 months for SG: ATG. For perspective, he ranks 89th for SG: ATG when you look at all-time. Given the difficulty from the sand here, it is promising that Glover ranks 12th on the PGA Tour this season for sand save percentage.

The 11th place finish last week continues a strong run in Texas. He has already finished 4th, 14th, and 18th here from 2019-2022. Other desert course form is seen at TPC Summerlin (3-7-9-15 there) and TPC Scottsdale (finished 20th in his first two appearances). Further, he boasts a 5th at the Greg Norman El Cameleon.

Finally, he holds a 10th, 12th, 13th, 15th, and 17th at The American Express. Being our strongest correlated course comp, it is also worth bearing in mind that is the tournament described by Jon Rahm as a putting contest. That is hardly the MO of Glover, adding further confidence to his chances this week.

Andrew Putnam

Another frequent attendee of the DeepDiveGolf betting cards, Putnam again is worthy of consideration at the Valero Texas Open.

We will need to forgive him an off week at the Valspar Championship. But, prior to that he gained +29.38 SG: APP in his two prior tournament starts.

Putnam showed a liking for this course early on, finishing 8th in just his second start at TPC San Antonio. Although he is yet to replicate that finish, he has only missed the cut once when arriving off a missed cut and three week break. Finishes of 28-36-41 outside that are hardly earth-shattering, but not the worst. Arguably, he arrives here playing the best golf of his career yet.

He rates out as 16th for SG: ATG, 12th for SG: PUTT, and 13th for driving accuracy over the past two years in this field. Predictably, his strongest approach buckets are both from under 100 yards and over 200 yards.

Correlated course form again ticks the box. A 7th at TPC Scottsdale and 11th, 12th, and 18th at TPC Summerlin show a liking for desert climes. Most notably, he has never missed the cut at The American Express after debut. His record since reads 17-34-10-14-36-47. He is worthy of speculation at the current long odds.

Brendon Todd

It is always seems that we end up with both Putnam and Todd at similar spots. I actually tipped Todd here last year at more than half the price, being just 45/1 at the time. Despite finishing 53rd, he hasn’t done much wrong since and I can’t really justify the huge jump in his price.

Included in that was a recent 22nd at TPC Scottsdale in a strong field, where he also has an additional 22nd and 26th in the last 4 years. He holds a 6th at The American Express, 12th at TPC Summerlin, and is even another winner at the Greg Norman El Cameleon back in 2020.

He also finished 6th recently in a signature event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That golf course is really too long for him and it was an impressive performance. He rates out as 4th for SG: AG, 10th for SG: PUTT, and 7th for driving accuracy in this field over the past 12 months. Completing the picture, he ranks 8th on the PGA Tour this season in sand save percentage. That could prove handy on one of the trickiest bunkered golf courses of the year.

Nate Lashley – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Finally, we finish out the Valero Texas Open betting card this week with my favourite bet on the board. I knew it was essential I grabbed Lashley in the PGA Draftcast to form the line-up I wanted. It was even more pleasing to hear I stole him from Spence, with reassurance that his sharp eyes had also spotted the value here. Make sure you catch the episode if you haven’t already pinned below.

Lashley looks to be very close to producing something special. He arrives after finishing 13th at The Players Championship and 21st the Houston Open. In the caliber of field of The Players, finishing 3rd for SG: APP is eye-catching. He backed that up ranking 20th SG: APP last week.

The driving accuracy has also seen some very notable improvement for Lashley, ranking 2nd in this field over the last 3 months. He also ranks out 28th for SG: ATG over the past 6 months and 28th for SG: APP over the past year. That all suggests a golfer that is hitting the ball really well and feeling confident in their swing

It is the approach metrics that really pop for me. Hopefully unsurprising at this point, his strongest ranges come from inside 100 yards and over 200 yards. Despite a best finish here of 18th, he has never arrived at this course in this type of form. A 3rd and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a 12th at The American Express are enough to suggest he should find liking in the course when at his best.

Join Team Audience on the- PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading the Valero Texas Open betting tips.

After all the controversy of the PGA Draftcast at the Houston Open, we had a special guest in The Model Maniac to breakdown this week’s DFS field.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

Texas Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC San Antonio hosts our Valero Texas Open preview

As is oft the case when we preview the Valero Texas Open, part of the mind is in Texas and the other in Georgia. We got that question right in 2022. We successfully tipped J.J. Spaun at TPC San Antonio with huge odds of 150/1.

Being the penultimate week before The Masters, this week provides a conundrum determining the motivation of the players. Who is here to play this week? Who is getting the final tune-ups and experiments in before heading to Augusta National? Who is hoping to find a spark of form?

Rory McIlroy, who heads betting markets, likely ticks the latter box. However, it perhaps speaks to the caliber of the player when we regard him as being out of form yet he has finished worse than 24th just once in the last 11 months. Quietly, I hope that Rory has a rather dreadful performance this week whilst finding something with his irons. The story of The Masters is currently about what Scottie Scheffler has been doing. The less eyes on Rory heading to Augusta, the better it seems for his chances of completing the career grand slam. It would be a moment few would begrudge him, and the majority would love to see.

Recap of last week

In terms of last week, it was a story of near misses. At the Houston Open, Schmid missed a juicy +425 Top 20 bet by a single stroke. We cash a +188 ticket on him for finishing Top 40. On the DP World Tour, our favourite for the week Joost Luiten again showed his loving for the difficult golf course. He finished 11th, again just missing a place payout at +560. It was good news for our huge outsider Manu Gandas. The local player, selected at 400/1, cashed a massive Top 20 at +1100 and a Top 40 at +320. Like Luiten, he narrowly missed a place payout. That was paying a massive 80/1 just for the place.

Alongside all our Valero Texas Open betting tips, make sure to jump in to preview our juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are already delivering great closing line value.

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TPC San Antonio Golf Course Analysis

Aiding this week’s preview is that there is real heritage and history at the Valero Texas Open. The tournament is the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour. It has been held in some form for over a century. This, along with the timing before The Masters, goes someway to explaining the relatively strong field we see this week.

This means we have a wealth of data to play with. Firstly, of note is that this is a relatively stern test. For the last 8 years, it has ranked in the harder 25% of golf courses. The more difficult years came in higher winds, which we may experience this week again.

The course ranks as 1st where SG: ATG is a predictive factor. On first glance, this might seem surprising considering the greens are a relatively large 6,400 sq ft on average. However, it should be noted that the majority of green complexes are multi-tiered. This effectively reduces the target area to the level where the pin is placed. Bunker play is a good place to start, with the course often ranking in the op 10 for difficulty from the multiple bunkers guarding each hole.

Additionally, this correlates to the uptick in SG: APP performance. Winners in this tournament have typically ranked in the top 10 for the week on approach. Interestingly, we see a wide split in where the approach shots are hit from. We see a large uptick in approach shots from under 125 yards and from over 250 yards. The latter relates to the long par 5s. Two are over 600 yards, with a 3rd playing at 591 yards.

Finally, driving accuracy is more helpful than distance. The course has ranked 12th or more in difficulty finding fairways over the last 4 tournaments.

TPC San Antonio Course Comps

Given the large number of prior tournaments held at TPC San Antonio, it is noteworthy for our preview that prior success at the Valero Texas Open has been a stronger predictor of success than at other courses. Course specialists like Jordan Spieth and Charley Hoffman demonstrate this, finding success here even when in poor form.

With Spieth, it also pays to note a multitude of players with Texas links have done well here. Having a connection to the state is seen in winners Spieth, Landry, Bowditch, and Walker.

Perhaps the best correlation can be found at another desert course venue: The American Express. Andrew Landry held a win and 2nd at The American Express prior to his Texas Open victory. Other winners continue the story. Kevin Chappell has a 6th and an 8th there prior to his win. He also holds a 3rd and 4th at the Valero Texas Open for good measure. Brendan Steele had a 2nd and a 6th there, Zach Johnson a 3rd and 8th, and Hoffman a 2nd and a 9th.

Another Greg Norman design in El Cameleon is also useful. Charley Hoffman has won at both, whilst John Huh and Matt Kuchar provide further links between the two courses.

Further connections can be found to leaderboards at TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale. Again, this meets the sense check. Both provide desert golf courses with little rough if just missing the fairway, but potentially significant penalties if straying too wide.

Texas Open Weather Preview

It is a tricky week for weather at the Valero Texas Open and, unfortunately, some differing weather forecasts make this more difficult to preview.

Essentially, I use a number of different weather models to compile the most likely weather outcome. These are weighted accordingly depending on accuracy resolution of the model.

Currently, the best answer I have is that Thursday PM/Friday AM wave may get the best of it. Thursday PM now looks the calmest winds on several models. Friday sees a big increase in winds, so scoring on Thursday could be imperative. There is also a chance Friday PM presents higher winds, which would further aid the case.

I do think it is worth building a few weather specific lines for PGA DFS. I’d recommend with a split of 30% PM/AM 10% AM/PM and the remaining 60% being mixed. Those who get the weather right could possess a decent advantage this week.

I recommend joining WinDaily Sports using our current deal and checking the WinDaily Premium Discord. We will have the latest weather forecasts with our premium models right up to first tee-times.

Texas Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valero Texas Open, you can preview these in this article here or in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf Premium

Houston Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Memorial Park Golf Course again hosts our Houston Open Betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Houston Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Memorial Park Golf Course, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Houston Open golf betting tips below.

Find out all about DeepDiveGolf and WinDaily Sports here.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.

Houston Open Honourable Mentions

As always, I like to play homage to a few golfers that just missed out on making our betting card for the Houston Open.

This course looks purpose built for both Patrick Rodgers and Taylor Pendrith. Rodgers has missed two consecutive cuts, albeit by a single stroke, and looks short enough in markets at 50/1. Likewise, Pendrith arrives after four missed cuts. Two of those were again on the number. Additionally, he has already had two looks at Memorial Park for a 66th and a M/C.

Davis Thompson was possibly the closest to making the Houston Open betting tips. This talented sophomore has plenty of driving distance and can pop with both the irons and short-game. He gained a massive number of strokes on approach last week as well, albeit missing the cut. The final determinant was losing a huge number of strokes on similar greens last week.

Finally, Carl Yuan bore some consideration. He was 35th on debut here and played well last week when finishing 5th. Ultimately, I just hoped for something a little juicier than 125/1.

Houston Open Golf Betting Tips

Updated in WinDaily Sports Discord 7pm ET Tuesday 26 March
Suggested Staking

Will Zalatoris
2.5u E/W +2000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Keith Mitchell – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
1u E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +210 (TAB)

Ryan Fox
0.5u E/W +10000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +400 (TAB)
And 2u Top 40 +170 (TAB)

Joseph Bramlett
0.5u E/W +10000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +375 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +180 (TAB)

Joel Dahmen
0.5u E/W +11000 (BetVictor with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +320 (TAB)
And
2u Top 40 +150 (TAB)

Matti Schmid – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.25u E/W +20000 (BetVictor with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
2.5u Top 40 +188 (TAB)

Mac Meissner
0.25u E/W +40000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +1100 (Bet365)
And
2.5u Top 40 +320 (Bet365)

Houston Open Betting Player Profiles

Will Zalatoris

Of course, a very simple way to construct your card would be to take Scottie Scheffler and ignore the rest. Opening at +300 to win, he has since been cut to a miniscule +260. However, bear in mind this still means he possesses an implied probability of 27.78%. Theoretically, that means that the field should win more than 70% of the time. It is hard to argue there is any value in that number.

Instead, I was attracted to the +2000 available on Zalatoris. Outside the top of the board, the field is relatively weak. Zalatoris ranks in the top 5 for SG: App over the last 3 months. However, bear in mind that also includes his first few tournaments when returning from injury. Those concerns are well behind him, and he has been back to his emphatic best of late. The number is simply too low, implying that he is expected to win this tournament nearly 6 times less than Scheffler.

Keith Mitchell – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

In general, the public can overreact to the performance in a single tournament. The fact that they have done so with Mitchell after just one round is worthy of attention.

Yes, he will need to recover quickly from a horrible final round at the Valspar Championship. However, do note he still finished 17th for the tournament. Prior to that, he had been playing some of his best golf in quite some time. That included a 17th at the WM Phoenix Open, 19th at the correlated Vidanta Vallarta, and 9th at the Cognizant Classic.

Mitchell has lost strokes OTT in just two tournaments since May 2022. His prowess with the driver is an undoubted asset at Memorial Park, as evidenced by his 9th placed finish here when arriving off form of 60-40-MC. He also boasts a strong record at Quail Hollow, with a 3rd and 8th in what is always a strong field. He has gained strokes on approach at every event in 2024 since the Sony Open on 14th January, ranking 4th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months.

Ryan Fox

Despite what can only be described as a sluggish start to 2024, I do like the signs we have been seeing lately in Foxy’s game.

It was a remarkable year for Ryan Fox in 2023, where he earned his PGA Tour card from the DP World Tour. Much of that was built on his excellent approach play. However, to start the season his form with the irons has been somewhat lacking. He lost SG: APP at every tournament except one from October 2023 to the end of February 2024.

Promisingly, he has now gained strokes on approach for three consecutive tournaments. The driving accuracy can be an issue at certain golf courses for Ryan Fox. As noted in my preview, that it is not an issue here. Fairways are wide and the rough is extremely short. I’ll instead hone in on the improved iron-play and ranking 13th for driving distance in this field over the last 12 months.

Joseph Bramlett

Another bomber who could show up this week at big odds is Joseph Bramlett.

Bramlett ranks 9th in this field over the last 12 months for driving distance. This is exactly the type of track we want to be able to effectively deploy Bramlett’s strongest skillset. He gets to use driver, and often, on Memorial Park Golf Course.

He finished 9th here when this tournament was last held, backing it up with a 10th at the Mexico Open in the same season. Perhaps most eye-catching was his performance last week. On paper, the Valspar Championship is not the best course fit for Bramlett. His lack of driving accuracy can prove a real hinderance at the Copperhead Course. To still be able to finish 17th was of note, ranking out 14th for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G and despite losing stokes OTT and putting. This suits better, and I am happy to be early on Bramlett here at an ideal course setup.

Joel Dahmen

On his profile alone, Dahmen should lack the distance to really contend at these long golf courses. However, I see more than enough in his course comps and history to perhaps suggest otherwise.

Firstly, course form of 5th and 9th in two starts jumps off the page. Further correlations can be found at Quail Hollow. He has finished 16th, 2nd, and 18th there previously.

His sole PGA Tour victory came at the Corales Puntacana Championship. That course has now become home to the bombers and is generally exposed to wind. The winning score that week was -12. It is a mark that could well be successful, with prior winning scores here of -13, -10, and -16 all coming in calmer conditions.

Much of that comes from Dahmen’s ability with his long irons. He ranks one of the best in the field for SG: APP over 200+ yards for the last 12 months. He arrives hear this week having gained a massive +8.36 and +6.04 SG: APP in his last two starts.

Perhaps this will be the second week in a row where a golfer who wears a silly hat can surprisingly win the tournament

Matti Schmid – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Unlike Fox, Matti Schmid actually earned his way onto the PGA Tour before the direct pathway from the DP World Tour existed. Obviously, it was like being thrown in the deep-end for the talented 26 year old. He managed just two finishes of 6th or better across the 2023 PGA Tour season.

The German golfer finally looks to be finding his feet. He finished 10th at the Puerto Rico Open, on a golf course that again rewards driving distance. He then followed that up with an admirable 26th at The Players Championship and a 17th place at last week’s Valspar Championship.

Neither of those latter two really suit Schmid’s game. Both TPC Sawgrass and the Copperhead Course favour driving accuracy. Schmid ranks 61st for accuracy in this field over the last 12 months, but 21st for driving distance. SG: APP are strongest over 200+ yards, where he ranks just behind Dahmen in this field over the last 12 months. This looks much better for his game, and he ranks a fabulous bet at a juicy 200/1 for a golfer in form.

Mac Meissner

Finally, I made space on my card for Korn Ferry Tour graduate Mac Meissner.

We included Meissner on our betting card recently at the Puerto Rico Open and I’m happy to include him again at the Houston Open. He finished 23rd that week to cash our Top 40 and narrowly miss the Top 20 bet by one stroke. Again, that is a course that typically favours driving distance. He backed it up last week in a stronger field when 26th at the Valspar Championship whilst gaining strokes across the board. Meissner won on that course in college, which undoubtedly provided fond memories.

He has also played plenty of golf in Texas. Meissner went to college at Southern Methodist University in neighbouring Dallas. Mac Meissner won in college in Dallas when taking out the Royal Oaks Intercollegiate on a long, tree-lined Texas golf course. Meissner has plenty of driving distance to be playable this week, ranking 38th for driving distance since joining the PGA Tour. A return to a state he is familiar with when in good form could prove a perfect recipe this week.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading the Houston Open betting tips.

If you’ve not seen it already, this week’s live draft for the Houston Open was one for the ages! Undoubtedly, it was one of the most hilarious shows in 2024. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

Houston Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Memorial Park hosts as we preview the Houston Open

As we preview the Houston Open, it pays to reflect whether this is now confirmed as the year of the longshot. Peter Malnati’s emotional victory at the Valspar Championship was the 8th winner at triple figure odds in 2024. That is now a remarkable 75% of all PGA Tour tournaments.

Year of the longshot?!
Winning odds on #PGATour in 2024 😲

Kirk 200/1
Murray 400/1
Dunlap 300/1
Pavon 125/1
Clark 100/1
Taylor 125/1
Matsuyama 80/1
Knapp 40/1
Scheffler 13/2
Garnett 150/1
Scheffler 11/2
Malnati 350/1

Avg. winning odds: 157/1
Avg. without Scheffler wins: 187/1 pic.twitter.com/DQfSYKDwHv
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 27, 2024

With a very short-priced Scottie Scheffler again heading the market this week, that opens the door for some more potential value to find success this week. Can another outsider win in Houston?

It was a week of close calls for us. Particularly on the DP World Tour, where all our tips made the cut and 5/7 picks were ranked 13th or better entering the final round.

Currently, 5/7 of our selections on @DPWorldTour are 13th or better at #PorscheSingaporeClassic 🔥👊

Wiesberger in 25th a chance to cash our Top 20 and Gavin Green was the FRL and selected at 90/1.

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 24, 2024

At the Valspar Championship, Christiaan Bezuidenhout cruelly missed a full place payout at +1250 by just a single stroke. With the weather and a difficult golf course, the Copperhead Course again proved to be a volatile event.

Alongside all our Houston Open betting tips, make sure to jump in to preview our juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are already delivering great closing line value.

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 27, 2024

Memorial Park Golf Course Analysis

Firstly, it pays to note the change in month for this tournament. It has actually been over 500 days since the PGA Tour visited Memorial Park Golf Course. That is a factor of the PGA Tour moving back to a calendar year schedule. Therefore, the Houston Open is elevated to a regular season event from it’s previous slot in the Fall season. As a result, we do see a stronger field than in prior renditions.

Additionally, this has seen changes to the course setup. The greens are now poa annua overseed with a Bermuda turf base. There has also been a reduction in rough, at a very benign 1.5 inches posing little penalty for straying off what are already rather wide fairways.

The course superintendent said the following about the changes: “The overseed now will provide a much tighter playing surface than the bermudagrass did in 2022. This will highlight the penal green surrounds, while shorter rough gives opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green.”

What remains true is that this is a very long golf course. It measures 7,412 yards and is a par 70. That consists of an unusual 5 par 3s, which average some of the shortest on Tour. Therefore, much of the distance resides in the par 4 and 5s. There are 5 par 4s that play over 490 yards. The par 5s rank in the top 5 of regular PGA Tour stops for distance.

Although lies surrounding green may be tighter, the green complexes are still a large 7,000 sq ft on average. This really is a home for the power hitters, and driving distance should be key this week.

Houston Open Preview: Memorial Park Course Comps

Given the change to season and the relatively small sample size of tournaments here, course history is a nice to have but certainly not a prerequisite for my Houston Open preview. It remains to be seen how the course will play exactly. Further, those who have previously found success on the greens may struggle with new breaks and speed on the poa overseeded putting surfaces.

I suspect the course will now play a bit like Quail Hollow. It is another tree-lined, traditional style, and long golf course. The course shares similar metrics in the length of par 4/5 yardages and has poa overseeded greens with a bermudagrass base.

Likewise, Mexico Open host Vidanta Vallarta holds similar long par 4/5s. It also correlates with a low penalty for finding fairway rough. Tony Finau links the two courses nicely, having won on both in 2023. Jaegar has finished 35th and 9th in his two starts at Memorial Park and finishes of 15-18-3 at Vidanta Vallarta.

Weather

No other sport is more subject to the elements than golf. We like to aggresively target any weather edge we identify. The same is true in our preview of the Houston Open this week. Last week at the Valspar Championship, we identified such a weather edge, which proved pivotal especially in PGA DFS.

At the #ValsparChampionship, we advised that a substantial weather edge would exist this week.

We were correct. Again.

Thursday AM/Friday PM: +0.28
Thursday PM/Friday AM: +1.46

A massive +1.18 weather advantage for those in preferred wave.

Follow for more nerdy golf intel🤓🧠
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 22, 2024

The weather again presents an opportunity this week. Thursday looks to provide calm conditions all day irrespective of what tee-time golfers have. It should be the key scoring round this week, on what can be a tough golf course.

However, Friday afternoon will see the winds arrive. This should start in earnest from midday, with afternoon tee-times experience winds gusting above 20mph. The winds should then remain for the rest of the tournament based on current forecasting.

As such, I like those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The earlier the golfers get out on the course Friday, the better.

Houston Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Houston Open, you can preview these in this article live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Houston Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf Premium

Valspar Championship Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Scoring on The Snake Pit could be key in our Valspar Championship golf betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Valspar Championship, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of the Copperhead course, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind The Players Championship golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.

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Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best pricing Tuesday 19 March 23:59 ET
Suggested Staking

Tony Finau – Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Doug Ghim
2u E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1u E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +250 (Bet365)

Adam Schenk
1u E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam – Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips Best Value
1u E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Ryo Hisatsune
1u E/W +9000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Alexander Bjork
0.5u E/W +15000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +500 (William Hill/Unibet)
And
2u Top 40 +210 (Unibet)

Valspar Championship Betting Player Profiles

For the most part, I am willing to take on the top of the betting board this week. Although Xander rates out very well on approach over 200+ yards and is clearly the class in the field, he looks priced short enough at +750. I also hold concerns over his ability to close out a victory, having not won now since July 2022. After a heart-breaking finish at The Players Championship, where he again missed some relatively easy birdie chances to at least make a play-off, I can leave him off the Valspar Championship betting card this week.

Burns is far too shorts in markets off the back of his excellent course history. Thomas and Spieth both look close enough to their best, although it is hard to argue either represents much value at +1400 and +1800 respectively. That leaves Brian Harman as the other at the top of the board that held the most appeal for me.

Much akin to Schauffele, I wonder whether he may need some time to recover from a draining week when in contention at The Players. Harman’s strongest approach comes from under 150 yards. Although he is still positive in the 150+ yard approach buckets, I’d like some stronger performance in that metric for the price. He does hold good form on comp courses and a prior 5th here in 2022, meaning I considered going right back to him this week.

Tony Finau – Valspar Championship Betting Tips Favourite

Instead, I will lead out with Tony Finau who can be found at +2500.

You don’t have to go back too far when Finau was regularly included in the Top 10 golfers in the world. I believe he is being perhaps harshly judged at the moment and playing a lot better than the public give him credit for.

Since December 2023, he has teed it up 8 times and finished in the Top 20 on 4 occasions. The other 4 tournaments he has finished 25th, 38th, 45th, and 47th. Hardly world-beating, but also not as dreadful as some would make out.

Finau is the best in the world over the last 12 months for SG: APP on iron shots over 200+ yards. He is 1st for SG: APP and 3rd for SG: T2G in this field over the last 6 months. He previously finished 5th here in 2017 and not played here since 2018, after which he did elevate his game. Simply, we are yet to see him when he has been playing at his best when on this golf course.

Correlated form can be found with 4 Top 25 finishes at TPC River Highlands and a record at Muirfield Village with includes finishes of 8th, 8th, 11th, and 13th in 7 starts.

Most promising is the recent putting improvements. Changes to his putting stroke were noticed at the Mexico Open, where he gained strokes putting for the second time in 10 tournaments. He backed that up again last week. If those putting changes have stuck, he may deliver a 7th PGA Tour title imminently.

Doug Ghim

Likely to be a popular selection this week, I prefer to get my exposure to Doug Ghim in the Valspar Championship betting markets rather than DFS.

Bang in form, The Players Championship 16th placed finish was his 5th consecutive tournament hitting that mark or better. This is probably the best course fit of the lot.

Ghim is the 8th most accurate driver in this field over the last 12 months. He also excels in approach shots over 200+ yards, which is his strongest approach bucket followed by the 150-200 yard range.

Notably, the putter finally looks to have come right. He has now gained in SG: PUTT for 4/5 tournaments with the 5th tournament being a very small loss of -0.07. Essentially, he putted at field average.

It is perhaps easy to forget that Ghim was in the same college class as Hovland and Morikawa. He actually beat them both to the 2018 Ben Hogan Award as the best college golf player in the USA that year. The other two went on to achieve better things, and undoubtedly it has not been the professional career that Doug Ghim wished for. He looks very close to finally fulfilling that potential. I’ll also be keeping a close eyes on his odds in the next two tournaments, being played in Texas where he went to college.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Another who has yet to fully meet his potential, Bezuidenhout showed much promise on the DP World Tour before moving to the PGA Tour in 2020.

Included in that DP World Tour career was a win at the Andalucia Masters. Valderrama should show strong betting correlation to the Valspar Championship. It is another narrow, tree-lined golf course. Driving accuracy is imperative for success there, as is long iron approach play.

Additionally, Bezuidenhout made my honourable mentions last week at The Players Championship at 100/1. The South African finished in 13th at TPC Sawgrass whilst ranking 4th for SG: APP in a classy field, mirroring his 13th place result there in 2023. He ranks 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months, 15th for SG: PUTT, and 5th for SG: TOTAL.

He may like this course even better. Of those with over 50 strokes recorded, Bezuidenhout is the 2nd best in this field for SG: APP over 200+ yards in 2024. That is just ahead of Xander Schauffele and narrowly behind Tony Finau. He looks a bet at anything 40/1 or longer.

Adam Schenk

Schenk was hot property in 2023, before falling off the radar thus far in 2024. That largely has been down to some consistently poor approach play to start the year.

He may have found that again last week. A 19th placed finish at The Players was impressive, where he finally gained on approach including ranking 25th and 10th in rounds 2 and 3 respectively. Notably, he was also 7th in the field for driving accuracy last week suggesting that his ball-striking is rounding into form.

Schenk’s suitability for the Copperhead course was noted in 2023. Beyond the runner-up finish here, where he had also finished 18th in 2021, he matched that with a 7th place finish at The Memorial tournament in a signature event.

A superb year resulted in an excellent FedEx Cup playoff run, finishing 6th at the FedEx St Jude and 9th in the season ending Tour Championship. Both are far from the worst course comps for what is required this week. Ranking in the top 20 over the last 12 months in the field for SG: APP over 200+ yards, look for another performance from Schenk this week.

Andrew Putnam – Valspar Championship Betting Best Value

Putnam has been absolutely striping it on approach as of late. An 8th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational came on a golf course that is really too long for him. He was 4th in that signature event for SG: APP. Backing that up, he finished 17th for SG: APP at The Players Championship.

A 10th earliest this season at Wai’alae Country Club is a reasonable comp course as to what should be required this week. Additionally, a 5th in 2023 at Muirfield is joined by a 17th there in 2019 and a 13th at the Travelers Championship in 2021 to make a resounding case.

His course form here, or lack thereof with 3/3 on missed cuts, should be read in some context. In 2022, he arrived here with form of MC-48-MC-MC. During 2021, he arrived after 3 consecutive missed cuts. And in 2018, his rookie season, he had lead in form of 54-MC-MC.

As such, he is likely a little sneaky this week. He ranks out 14th for driving accuracy, 6th for SG: APP, and 22nd for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 12 months. Additionally, he ranks 12th in this field for SG: APP from 200+ yards. I love him both in DFS and Valspar Championship betting markets.

Ryo Hisatsune

We round out our Valspar Championship betting tips with two former DP World Tour players.

I have spoken about Hisatsune a number of times in both these pages and on the PGA Draftcast. Hisatsune is just 21 years old and looks an immense talent. In my opinion, he heads the list of candidates most likely to have a Tom Kim type breakout season.

6th in the 2023 ZOZO Championship came behind fellow accurate drive Collin Morikawa on a tree-lined golf course. Likewise, 2023 DP World Tour finishes of 15th at The Belfry, 13th at the Omega European Masters, and 10th at the Soudal Open bodes well. The win at the Cazoo Open de France came on a golf course which asks similar questions in a different way. Frustratingly, I had included him in my DP World Tour tips for the three tournaments prior to his breakthrough victory.

The start of his first full PGA Tour season has been a mixed bag. He has displayed upside, and mainly at similar courses, such as a 30th at the Sony Open and 11th at the American Express. He has now gained on SG: APP for 5/6 of his most recent tournament starts, as well as 6 straight events for driving accuracy. A missed cut at The Players is better than initial glance, being right on the number and technically gaining strokes on the field. That almost always means a player ended up on the wrong side of a weather draw.

Hisatsune is likely the epitome of a high ceiling but rock bottom floor this week. As such, we’ve staked aggressively. We recommend a straight on the E/W and Top 20 rather than delving into Top 40 markets. He could go big or go home.

Alexander Bjork

Finally, another DP World Tour golfer who has made my selections often.

2023 could only be described as frustrating for Bjork. He again failed to record a victory. He also finished in the Top 5 in an absurd 20% of his tournament starts and in the Top 20 in 56% of them.

Bjork has lost on driving accuracy to the field in just one instance since July 2022. That is a 38 tournament stretch. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 15th in this tournament for SG: APP over 200+ yards. That combination of driving accuracy and long approach metrics sees him spike in my model.

Some of Bjork’s best performances have come on correlated courses. He holds a 4th at Valderrama and was 8th at The Belfry in 2023. He also finished 4th in last year’s Soudal Open, a course where he also finished 23rd in his only other start on that track. A runner-up finish at the Omega European Masters when within our tips came behind only one Ludvig Aberg.

The question comes whether he can translate that form to the PGA Tour. But, that is why we are getting the price we are. A last start 47th came when in the Top 35 for SG: APP and 2nd for driving accuracy at the Cognizant Classic. PGA National tends to favour mid irons over long irons. Of promise, he gained strokes putting on similar greens in the Palm Beaches. This course should be an even better fit.

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Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading the Valspar Championship betting tips. Make sure you subscribe to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

Valspar Championship Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Scoring on The Snake Pit could be key in our Valspar Championship preview

Last year, we successfully tipped Taylor Moore at 70/1 for our preview of the 2023 Valspar Championship. Let’s find the winner at the Copperhead course again this week!

🔥BOOM! Another winner @WinDailySports 🔥
6 picks in our analysis this week

Taylor Moore – WINNER
2pts WIN +7000
2pts Full Place +1400

Wyndham Clark – 5th
2.5pts Full Place +700

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 19, 2023

The Players Championship absolutely lived up to its billing last week, producing perhaps the most enthralling tournament of the PGA Tour season thus far. It was another great week for our selections as well. We tipped Brian Harman at 80/1 who finished just one shot off Scottie Scheffler. He locked in a full place at +1600 and a Top 20 at +275. Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 wound up in 6th, cashing a full place at +700. As sexy as picking the outright winner of a golf tournament is, both of those plays had better returns than picking the World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler.

A great week for us at #ThePlayers

🥈Harman (80/1) for place 1u at +1600 & 2u Top 20 at +275.
Matsuyama (35/1) our only selection under 70/1. Finishes 6th for place 2.5u at +700.
Nick Taylor (175/1) cashes Top 40 at +163.

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 17, 2024

We then went 5/6 for our main selections in the Round 4 matchups. Although disappointing to just miss a huge multi at around +4000, it was again a fabulous return on our 2 Ball best bets.

🔥A LOT of green on the board in R4 #THEPLAYERS
We gave this out for FREE ⬇️ @WinDailySports 😱

Singles
✅1.5u Putnam -130
❌1u Hubbard +130
✅1u Lowry -110
✅1.5u Rai -115
✅2u Matsuyama -143
✅2u Harman -125
Multis/Parlays
❌0.4u All 6 +4126
✅0.6u Boxed 5 Folds
✅1.5u… https://t.co/4X1GkWUeEw
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 17, 2024

Alongside all our Valspar Championship betting tips, we have a preview with some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are already delivering great closing line value.

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Copperhead Course Analysis

Certainly, this golf course is no pushover and a comprehensive preview is imperative if we are to find the winner of the Valspar Championship in back-to-back years.

The only holes that played under par in 2023 were the four par 5s. Sam Burns, who defended his title here in 2022 then finished 6th in 2023, ranked 11th and 7th in Par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour in both the years he won the Valspar Championship.

Ideally, golfers will be long and straight off the tee here. If you were to sacrifice one, it would be driving distance. The Copperhead golf course consistently ranks in the top 3 most difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour. We also see one of the Top 5 reductions in driving distance on this golf course. This is a factor of golfers clubbing down off the tee in order to find the safety of the fairway.

A disproportionate number of shots on approach occur from over 200+ yards, and this was one of the key metrics that helped us find winner Taylor Moore in 2023. Notably, all the par 3s play at 195 yards or longer.

Greenskeeper’s Preview of the Valspar Championship

There are some interesting notes from the greenkeepers this week, which mirror what we saw here in 2023:

Cool, wet weather has been great for ryegrass growth, including thicker rough.
Last year the rough height was increased to 3.75” from 3” in previous years
Also last year the intermediate cut width around the greens was decreased from 72” to 21” to bring the rough closer to the greens.

Accuracy has a strong correlation to success whenever you preview the Valspar Championship. With heavy rain in Florida to start 2024 and the rough grown out, expect the rough to be even more juicy and thick than previously.

Finally, a note on SG: ATG. Previously, this has been key to success in any Copperhead golf course analysis. However, do note the move of the intermediate fringe in for the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. This sees a reduction in expected output from short-game. Essentially, a tighter lie allows more creativity of shot around the green. With the thick rough moving closer to the playing surface, this takes some of the selection out of play. It leaves hacking the ball at as the sole way to return the ball to play. Therefore, around the green may play less of a factor than the historical metrics suggest.

Valspar Championship Preview: Copperhead Course Comps

Importantly, do note that prior course form provides less weighting towards future success compared to other PGA Tour venues. The reasons for this are two-fold. Firstly, this has previously been a weaker field. This results in a higher rate of turnover year on year compared to other courses. Secondly, the volatile nature of the Copperhead golf course provides for a wider range of outcomes. Sam Burns may fly in the face of that statement, but he is the exception rather than the rule.

Correlated course form can be found at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Host of The Memorial tournament, the golf course is tree-lined with a similar average length of par 4/5. It ranks in the top 5 on the PGA Tour both for missed fairway penalty and rough penalty. We also experience a large reduction in driving distance on that golf course, which allows us to target the longer iron approach play which is imperative to success this week.

TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, provides another nice correlation. It is a course where driving accuracy again reigns supreme.

On the DP World Tour, tree-lined accuracy based golf courses like Valderrama and PGA Catalunya come to mind. The Belfry and Rinkven are also courses where the combination of driving accuracy and long iron approach prove predictive.

Weather

As regular readers of these pages will note, we do weight weather predictions heavily within our modelling. Weather could prove pivotal in any preview of the Valspar Championship this week. We tend to have a good track record of getting this correct.

We correctly forecast that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would end in a 54 hole tournament, and I will make a similar prediction this week. I do think that, should current forecasts stay true, this will either be a 54 hole event or (more likely) another Monday finish is on the cards.

Friday is the main issue in this respect. A lot of rain is forecast, with potential thunderstorm risks. The winds also look very heavy, gusting to over 40 mph during Friday.

On current forecasts, I suspect that we see delays Friday. This should result in an advantage to Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times receiving an advantage. Those set to go out Friday afternoon could well see their rounds delayed into Saturday. Saturday morning does still look windy, but much less sever than on Friday.

Valspar Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valspar Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Valspar Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

The Players Round 4 2 Balls: DeepDiveGolf’s Preview & Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

DeepDiveGolf gives his Round 4 Best Bets at The Players Championship

Before getting into The Players Championship Round 4 Best Bets, I recommend going back to read my tournament preview article here. This provides context behind The Players Championship Round 4 betting tips and 2 Balls below. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass and important course comps for the tournament.

It was a mixed bag for our golfers in the 3rd round, as the volatile TPC Sawgrass always tends to produce. Tom Hoge (80/1) was playing brilliantly and sitting in the Top 10, before the dreaded 18th swallowed two of his golf balls in the water. The subsequent quadruple bogey dropped him all the way to 35th and an outside chance on our Top 20 bet at +300.

Likewise, Nick Taylor (175/1) has been sitting 2nd for the first two days of play. He completely lost his swing over the first 10 holes, including a 135 yard shank driving on the 10th hole finding water. He was mildly better over the final 8 holes, sitting 22nd. Still, he is a chance for a Top 20 at +450 and a Top 40 at +200.

In better news, Brian Harman (80/1) is right in contention. He completed the lowest 2nd and 3rd round total at The Players Championship, following up his 65 with a 64 on Saturday. Harman sits in 3rd just two shots off the lead.

Our favourite of the week, Hideki Matsuyama (35/1), sits in 9th. He leads the field in ball-striking this week and remains towards the top of the leaderboard despite sitting 65th for SG: PUTT. Although he is likely too far back to chase a win at 7 shots off the lead, he is a chance for a place payout at +700.

How things stand entering the final round at #THEPLAYERS

The Good
– Brian Harman (80/1) with the lowest ever 2nd/3rd round in The Players Championship history. His 64 today is the best round of the tournament thus far. Harman sits in 3rd, just two shots off the lead
– Hideki… pic.twitter.com/cFbKT0cN6E
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 16, 2024

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The Players Championship Round 4 Best Bets

Putnam over Molinari -130

Andrew Putnam ranks 23rd in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 12 months, yet is 68/73 putting of those who made the cut. That included losing -2.01 SG: PUTT in the 3rd round, with missed birdie chances at the 1st, 9th, and 12th holes as well as a bogey on 6th after missing a 7 footer.

Meanwhile, Molinari is exceeding his typical putting baseline, sitting 25th for putting this week whilst only ranking 126th in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 12 months. Molinari also ranks as one of the worst in the filed for SG: APP over the last 12 months under 150 yards. This represents the highest number of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass.

This is the one of the strengths of Putnam’s game. His approach numbers are a little hidden, given he found the water on 18 Saturday costing him -1.42 SG: APP on that hole alone. Combined with expected regression in putting metrics, it sees Putnam as value at this number.

Hubbard over English +130

Much as we stated in our Round 2 Best Bets article, Hubbard continues to display excellent ball-striking this week. He is 3rd for driving accuracy and 7th for SG: APP, sitting 4th for SG: BS.

The problem really has been the putter. There has actually been much improvement in this aspect of his game of late, ranking 24th in this field putting over the past 3 months. Additionally, he has tended to putt well at TPC Sawgrass. He has been at or above field average in all appearances at The Players Championship bar on debut.

Of some concern is that English lost -3.01 SG: Putt in the 3rd round, well below his baseline. However, the far better ball-striking numbers from Hubbard suggest he should be much closer to even money than an outsider in this matchup.

Lowry over McCarthy -110

Lowry has been in fabulous form of late, finishing 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 4th at the Cognizant Classic the week prior. He also holds a strong record at The Players Championship where has finished 8th, 13th, and 16th before. Correlated courses of Sedgefield and Wentworth also see Lowry hold good finishes.

Outside a 13th placed finish in 2023, McCarthy has finished no better than 41st at The Players Championship in his other three starts here. Currently, he is really struggling with driver and on approach. It has been more of the same this week, finding only 23 fairways over the first 3 rounds and 48th on approach despite not finding the water.

Lowry let birdie putts go on holes 1, 9, 12, 14, 16, and 17 on Saturday. Additionally, he missed a 3ft 4in par putt on the 5th hole. That is well below average even for Lowry’s standards, on a golf course he has been a net gainer when putting.

Rai over Knapp -115

Aaron Rai finally found his approach in the 3rd round, gaining +3.55 SG: APP on Saturday. Although holing out for eagle on the 14th certainly helped, he was still +1.51 on approach for the other 17 holes.

Rai also ranks 1st in the field for driving accuracy this week, the most predictive factor for success at TPC Sawgrass. He has missed only 7 fairways all week. On the other hand, Knapp typically struggles with driving accuracy. The same can be said this week. He is sitting just 50th for driving accuracy, including finding only 6 fairways on Saturday.

Sitting 63/73 for SG: BS and 71/73 for SG: OTT doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for Knapp. Certainly, a final round appearance for the rookie is an achievement in itself. However, it is a challenge he may find difficult on debut.

Matsuyama over Montgomery -143
The Players Round 4 Favourite Bet

As in the introduction, Matsuyama is really in an excellent vein of form with the ball-striking. He leads the field in that metric this week. The putter continues to be a struggle for Matsuyama this week. However, that is the most volatile club in the bag and one that we so often see regress towards a golfer’s baseline over a much shorter timespan.

Montgomery is one of the most inaccurate drivers in this field, ranking 139th in this field over the past 12 months. Although a superb putter in general, there is only so long around TPC Sawgrass that you can avoid the dangers of water at nearly every turn. The odds at Bet365 are also generous. Matsuyama is a -220 or shorter favourite at most other books.

Harman over McNealy -125

As fun as McNealy 3rd round was to watch, that fairytale can only last so long. Chip-ins on holes 3, 14 and 15 (after putting off the green) are unlikely to occur again.

McNealy ranks just 60th in the tournament for SG: APP. He has carried heavily by his fortunate wedge play and putter to find himself in contention. Really, it is quite an unsustainable way to build a scorecard.

Mav McNealy with an all-time round (maybe) around the greens today. We have him gaining 5.9 strokes, which would put him at #2 on the all-time list. PGA Tour LB only has him gaining 4.7 strokes (we must not have the same set of shots labelled ARG).
— data golf (@DataGolf) March 16, 2024

Meanwhile, Harman has looked truly excellent thus far. He is 3rd for SG: APP, 5th for SG : BS, and 4th for SG: PUTT. When you account for the fact he actually lost on approach in his opening round, he has gained +6.35 SG: APP for Friday and Saturday. Those numbers should carry him over McNealy. It may even see him lift the trophy on Sunday.

Lashley over Scheffler +400 Singles Only

Rounding out our selections are a couple of speculative outsiders. Therefore, these are included as singles only.

Taking on Scheffler in most circumstances seems absurd. Undisputedly, he should be the favourite in this 2 Ball. The issue comes more with the number.

The fact is, the general public are going to jump on Scheffler no matter what the odds are in this matchup. Obviously, the books need to cover this. Hence, he is a -450 favourite when he should be closer to -200. Add in the additional wrinkle of the Scheffler neck injury, it seems worth taking a contrarian stance here.

PGA Tour: We are aware of the pace of play issues.
Also PGA Tour:#ThePlayers pic.twitter.com/hGgLRhrjCC
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 15, 2024

For the record, my numbers produced a similar story for C.T. Pan at +250 over McIlroy over at Fanduel. I wasn’t quite brave enough to pull that trigger on that one. However, I’ll note that the model did like that play for Round 4 of The Players Championship.

Schenk over Burns +180 Singles Only

Again, I won’t deny the fact that Burns should be the favourite in this 2 Ball. However, the number has slipped a little too far in his favour when he should be more fairly priced at -100.

Schenk has been the much better ball-striker of these two over the first three rounds. He ranks 11th for SG: BS and 7th for SG: T2G. This includes ranking 7th for driving accuracy, 12th for SG: OTT, 21st for SG: APP, and 16th for SG: ATG. He has missed just 10 fairways thus far. Meanwhile, Burns is 61/73 for driving accuracy having found just 23 fairways so far this week.

The issue for Schenk has once again been the putter. However, entering Round 4 at The Players we can take some solace from the fact Schenk has typically putted well here. He has gained putting in 3/4 appearances at TPC Sawgrass. In the other tournament, he only lost -0.5 SG: Putt.

Expecting some positive regression in his putting numbers, I am willing to take the underdog in this matchup.

The Players Championship Round 4 2 Balls
Suggested Staking

Singles
1.5u Putnam over Molinari -130 (Bet365)
1u Hubbard over English +130 (William Hill/Unibet)
1u Lowry over McCarthy -110 (Bet365)
1.5u Rai over Knapp -115 (Bet365)
2u Matsuyama over Montgomery -143 (Bet365)
2u Harman over McNealy -125 (Unibet)
0.5u Lashley over Scheffler +400 (Unibet) Singles Only
0.5u Schenk over Burns +180 (William Hill) Singles Only

Parlays/Mutis
Putnam/Hubbard/Lowry/Rai/Matsuyama/Harman to win their 2 Ball

0.4u All 6 +4126 Bet365
0.6u Boxed 5 Folds (6 x 0.1u each)
1.5u Boxed 4 Folds (15 x 0.1u each)
5u Boxed Trebles (20 x 0.25u each)
7.5u Boxed Doubles (15 x 0.5u each)

25u Total Invested

Before Round 4, rewatch The Players PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship Round 4 betting tips.

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Join Sia Nejad (@sianejad), Spence Aguiar (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and me (@deepdivegolf) as we talk through the PGA Tour tournament each week whilst drafting a DFS team. There’s always great banter and plenty of sharp plays.
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PGA Sports Betting Golf

The Players Championship: DeepDiveGolf’s Round 2 Preview & Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

DeepDiveGolf gives his Round 2 Best Bets at The Players Championship

Before getting into The Players Championship Round 2 Best Bets, I recommend going back to read my tournament preview article here. This provides context behind The Players Championship Round 2 betting tips and 3-balls below. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass and important course comps for the tournament.

What a first round it was for our selections! An unfortunate withdrawal by Tom Kim (citing illness) aside, we couldn’t have asked for a much better start.

5/7 of the “healthy” players are 22nd or better. Most impressively, Nick Taylor continues to impress and is right in contention once again this week. We secured him earlier this week over at WinDaily Sports at HUGE odds of 175/1.

A great start for our tips at #THEPLAYERS 🔥

4th with a 66 (-6) and just one off the lead
Nick Taylor 175/1 (now just 30/1)

6th with a 67 (-5)
Tom Hoge 80/1 (also now only 30/1)

Ryan Fox 🦊 200/1, Benny An 75/1, and Hideki Matsuyama 33/1 all with solid opening rounds at -3 👊 pic.twitter.com/FPhN7XzHAO
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 15, 2024

Ryan Fox (200/1) was an obvious eye-catcher. He became the first golfer to eagle 16 and make a hole-in-one at the 17th at The Players Championship. Kiwi magic right there!

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The Players Championship Round 2 Best Bets

Mark Hubbard over Dylan Wu & Keith Mitchell +190

I included Oakdale Golf & Country Club as part of my analysis this week. I suspected that correlations of a driving accuracy wedge-fest would suit well to The Players Championship. It was part of the reason for including Nick Taylor as I spoke about in our article.

LET's GO! BOOM!!! 🔥💥

Nick Taylor buries it from a massive 72 feet and secures us ANOTHER outright winner at 66/1 🤯

Stay hot @WinDailySports 🔥🌶️🥵#RBCCanadianOpen #RBCCO #CanadianOpen https://t.co/Lz3hFjHKzU pic.twitter.com/LKNLTSRrc5
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 11, 2023

Look at the rest of the 2023 RBC Canadian Open leaderboard compared to Round 1 at The Players Championship though. Beyond the obvious names of Fleetwood, Hatton, and McIlroy there were a few other golfers, but they performed above their expectation. Namely CT Pan, Eric Cole, and Mark Hubbard. They sit 22nd, 37th, and 13th respectively after Round 1.

Hubbard gained +3.48 SG: APP in Round 1 to sit third in that metric, as well as 2nd for driving accuracy and 9th ATG to lead the field in SG: T2G. Basically, he still managed to win this 3-ball on Thursday despite ranking 138/144 for putting.

However, Hubbard has actually been putting very well of late. He ranks 24th in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 3 months. Mitchell ranks 88th and Dylan Wu ranks 107th in that same metric. Previously, he has putted well here as well being at or above field average in all appearances at The Players Championship except his first.

This seems a prime spot for some positive putting regression and like the number on the middle odds in this group.

Byeong-Hun An over Matti Schmid & Patrick Rodgers +115

I’m not sure I need to speak about the credentials of Benny An here too much, as he made our betting card and Premium subscribers will already be well aware. In short he has a 2022 Korn Ferry Tour win came on a comparable course at the LECOM Suncoast Classic, a record at the highly comparable Sedgefield Country Club reading 18-MC-3-35-2, and he is a winner at another comp course at Wentworth where he has never finished worse than 33rd.

Driving accuracy is the real key at The Players Championship and Benny An ranked 2nd in Round 1 as well as 27th for SG: APP. Of his two competitors, Matti Schmid actually holds the more concern for me. He was a promising talent on the DP World Tour before struggling with the jump in class in his rookie PGA Tour season. He was 22nd in his first look at Sedgefield and finished 10th last week in Puerto Rico. However, I do wonder if he gets the speed wobbles here. Two eagles is unlikely to happen again and neither is sitting 9th for SG: PUTT, all whilst waking up finding himself in 13th at The Players.

As for Rodgers, he has an abysmal record at this track with 5 MC, a MDF, and a 65th. The same can be said at Sedgefield, he has never finished better than 24th in 8 attempts with half of those not seeing four rounds. More looks on the cards for him this week where he lost strokes across the board in Round 1, including hitting only 8/14 fairways.

Corey Conners over J.J. Spaun & Davis Riley+100

A relatively simple play here. Corey Conners is clearly the class of this 3-ball, which he demonstrated in this group on Thursday beating Spaun by 4 shots and Riley by 6.

Riley has been out of form for quite some time, having a best finish of 28th in the last 11 months. It is a real shame to see when he was such a promising rookie in 2022.

For J.J. Spaun, he was 130/144 players for SG: APP in Round 1 and actually 41st for putting when gaining 0.82 SG: PUTT. We should give the putting anomaly some perspective. Outside gaining putting at Pebble Beach, his sole cut made in his last 6 tournaments when finishing 54th, he has lost a combined -8.75 SG: PUTT in the other 10 rounds. That recipe isn’t going to inspire anyone and gives no confidence it can continue. Negative regression can be expected.

Despite the well-known putting struggles of Conners, he has actually been a net gainer when putting at The Players Championship. That includes when finishing 7th here in 2021 and gaining in 3/5 appearances. He also was 10th for driving accuracy and 4th for SG: T2G in Round 1, suggesting a more sustainable method to continue to win in this group.

Nate Lashley over Ben Kohles and Robby Shelton +162

Again, I’m not sure too much needs to be said about this one. Lashley opened with a 68 (-4) on Thursday, whilst the other two in this group both finished +8 leading to a massive gap of 12 shots between the competitors.

Robby Shelton has never made a cut here, at Sedgefield, or at Oakdale. He was dead last for putting in Round 1 and 139th for SG: T2G. Kohles has never played The Players Championship before and has a record at Sedgefield of 70-MC-54. Additionally, the aforementioned correlated Korn Kerry Tour tournament the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also poor. He missed 3 cuts there with his sole made cut a 67th place finish. He was the 2nd worst putter in Round 1 and 141st for SG: T2G.

Certainly, Lashley was just clearly a lot better including being 8th for SG: APP in Round 1. I don’t actually expect Lashley to keep up his current pace. However, I’m not sure that will be required in order to achieve the desired result here.

The Players Championship Round 2 3-Balls
Suggested Staking

Singles
1.5u Hubbard over Dylan Wu & Mitchell +190 Bet365
1.5u Byeong-Hun An over Schmid & Rodgers +115 Various
2u Conners over Spaun & Riley +100 FanDuel
1.5u Lashley over Kohles & Shelton +162 Bet365

Parlays/Mutis
0.5u All 4 +2552 Bet365
2u Boxed Trebles (4 x 0.5u each) Bet365
6u Boxed Doubles (6 x 1u each) Bet365

15u Total Invested

Rewatch The Players Championship PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship Round 2 betting tips.

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Join Sia Nejad (@sianejad), Spence Aguiar (@TeeOffSports), and Joel (@draftmasterflex) as we talk through the PGA Tour tournament each week whilst drafting a DFS team. There’s always great banter and plenty of sharp plays.
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The Players DFS Advice: DeepDiveGolf’s DFS Player Pool and Strategies

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

DeepDiveGolf delivers his DFS player pool for The Players

Before getting into our DFS pool for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. This helps explain reason and my process behind The Players Championship DFS tips below.

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DFS Strategies for The Players Championship

Obviously, as in betting markets, the DFS salary board is shaped by Scottie Scheffler.

At an extremely expensive $12,800 and potentially over 35% ownership, we need to consider the manner of output required for him to justify that price tag.

Basically, building a DFS lineup with Scheffler immediately encounters salary cap issues. As Joel correctly proposed this question on the PGA Draftcast, it then becomes a matter of whether you can build a better DFS line-up with Scheffler or without him. As a result of the salary, you are not only seeing high ownership on Scheffler but condensed ownership further down the field in multiple spots. Essentially, we are asking him to finish 1st or runner-up.

As I wrote in my The Players Championship preview and tournament analysis, the optimal DFS theory may be to lean into the volatility that TPC Sawgrass presents. With penalties looming at every turn, simply avoiding the chalk could be more important this week than ever.

As always, contest selection and DFS line-up construction go hand in hand. For a small entrant SE contest, you can embrace more chalk and play safer. For a larger GPP, especially the millionaire maker, you are going to want to get very uncomfortable and take several players you feel uneasy about that possess tremendous upside. Leaving salary on the table is also a key consideration for the latter this week.

The Players Championship DFS Player Pool

The below is based on Draftkings salaries, with players listed by preference from left to right. We account for a combination of expected performance, key course metrics, correlated course form, approach statistics, ownership, and salary.

Salary Tier	Golfers
$10,000+	Thomas, Scheffler, Schauffele
$9,000-$9,900	Matsuyama, Lowry, Homa, Spieth, Morikawa
$8,000-$8,900	Benny An, Henley, Tom Kim, Conners, Fleetwood, Day
$7,000-$7,900	Harman, Hoge, Noren, Bezuidenhout, Bradley, Grillo, Davis, Kirk
$6,000-$6,900	Horschel, Taylor, Todd, Putnam, Hisatsune, Fox, Eckroat, Rai, Glover, Montgomery
$5,000-$5,900 AKA Dumpster Fire	Zac Blair, Brandon Wu, Power, KH Lee, Ryder, Lower, Sigg, Michael Kim, Duncan, Hadley, Lashley, Martin, CT Pan

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf Premium

The Players Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Sawgrass hosts The Players Betting Tips this week

Before getting into our betting tips for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind The Players Championship golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Betting Strategies for The Players

The market this week is framed by Scottie Scheffler. Priced at just 5/1 with some bookmakers, it represents one of the shortest prices we have seen in recent times and certainly in this standard of field. That comes off the back of a 5 stroke victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he finally gained strokes putting, and having won this event by that same margin in 2023.

Whether the introduction of the mallet putter proves to be a permanent and worthy solution remains to be seen. Surely, if it has then the rest of the Tour will be rather worried. Had Scheffler gained an average of just +1 strokes per round putting he would’ve won upwards of 8 tournaments in recent times. If he putts well, he likely wins here. However, 6/1 represents a fair reflection of his chances.

Additionally, I do believe we need to interpret the betting market in terms of the course as well. This tournament has ranked inside the top 6 for volatility consistently over the years.

Previous Betting Odds at The Players

This is best emphasised in the odds of close contenders. On the face of it winners of Scheffler (10/1), Smith (30/1), Justin Thomas (18/1), and Rory McIlroy (12/1) points to the top of the market dominating this event. But for a few putts, or a ball in the water at an inopportune moment, the list could easily look quite different.

For 2023, Scheffler was a runaway victor, although Hoge at 130/1 was in my selections and finished 3rd. However, in 2022 Anirban Lahiri lost by one stroke at 1000/1. In 2021, Westwood 100/1 and Harman 200/1 went close. Then in 2019, Jim Furyk lost by one at 140/1. Before that, Webb Simpson won at 100/1 in 2018 and Si Woo Kim won at 500/1 in 2017.

My point is, if there was an event to take on the top of the board and find some DFV (being Deep ***ing Value), it is on a volatile golf course such as here.

Honourable Mentions

As always, we like to include some of the names who were close to making our betting card for The Players. Whether you want to include these players in match-ups or for DFS, hopefully this proves useful.

Russell Henley

Russell Henley was extremely close to making our betting card for The Players this week. This is a golf course that suits him well. He has finished 13th and 19th the past two years, as well as a 17th and 24th in the past. Henley also holds four consecutive Top 10s at heavily correlated Sedgefield, going 9-7-5-2 since 2020. He is a much improved golfer now, finishing outside the top 25 just 6 times since the last Players Championship, a 22 tournament stretch.

However, the subsequent cut in odds has been severe. From the 150/1, when I included him in my tips at this last year, compared to just 55/1 on open in 2024 (since cut further to just 40/1) is too hard to swallow for me. Furthermore, I have began to really question his ability to get across the finish line. Sitting as one of the top 20 golfers in the world and hitting the ball as he has been, he really should’ve won at least once by now. That was demonstrated again when I selected him at the Sony Open, where he was leading before fading with a +1 final 6 hole stretch.

Other Contenders

This course looks to also be tailormade for Collin Morikawa. He had his best appearance at TPC Sawgrass in 2023 finishing 13th and holds a 7th at the Pete Dye designed Harbour Town. However, his 8-over 2nd round last week was sufficiently concerning to see him excluded.

Brendon Todd looks to be underrated and drew my consideration. Last week’s 7th place finish was at a golf course far too long for him, relying on his long irons far more than this shorter test where his superb wedges will be in-play. Unfortunately, he is available at 200/1 in the UK and on the exchange but best priced at 150/1 or lower by most bookmakers.

Finally, Christiaan Bezuidenhout drew my attention at 100/1. He also finished 13th here in 2023, and was -7 after one round here in 2020 before the tournament was suspended with the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. He also has finished 28-33-19 in three attempts at Harbour Town as well as a record of 3-40-5 at Wentworth. Continuing a downward trajectory for his SG: APP over the last 5 consecutive events hints enough that his iron-play may be regressing at this time.

The Players Championship Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best pricing 11 Mar 7PM ET
Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – The Players Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3300 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
1u E/W +7000 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Byeong-Hun An
1u E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Brian Harman
1u E/W +8000 (Unibet with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Tom Hoge
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Billy Horschel – The Players Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
3u Top 40 +163 (Bet365)

Nick Taylor
0.5u E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
3u Top 40 +170 (Unibet)

Ryan Fox
0.25u E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 40 +200 (Bet365) or +275 (TAB)

The Players Championship Betting Player Profiles

Hideki Matsuyama – The Players Betting Tips Favourite

In that context, we begin our selections with our only betting tip on The Players card priced under 70/1. I was quite worried about Hideki Matsuyama last week. Oddly enough, not because of injury concerns in this instance. Instead, that should he win or remain competitive that his betting odds for The Players Championship would be unbackable.

It is perhaps fortunate that he found the water twice on the back 9 Sunday to eventually finish 12th. Subsequently, the strength of his approach performance is hidden somewhat by those two shots as outliers to his overall ball-striking.

Overall, he looks to be back to his very best. Beyond the excellent performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he won the Genesis Invitational, with both being signature events and high caliber fields. Compared to those two courses, I actually think this is a better course fit for Matsuyama. He does his best work with his irons under 150 yards, with both those courses leaning more heavy on the long irons than wedges.

He holds a fabulous record at TPC Sawgrass right from debut with a form line of 23-17-7-22-MC-8-MC-5. Hidden in those results is the 2020 The Players Championship which wasn’t, where he set the then course record of -9 in the first round before the tournament was canned. Additionally, he has done well at the correlated Sedgefield with a 3rd, 11th, and 15th there.

As such, I was pleased to see him listed at longer than 25/1 to head up our betting card this week.

Tom Kim

We near immediately enter the speculative plays of The Players betting card. I’m willing to take a punt on Tom Kim at the generous odds of 70/1.

The reason for his pricing here is down to the fact that 2024 has been a relatively poor start of the year. Despite missing just one cut, he has finished no higher than 17th this calendar year. Much of that has come down to the putter, which I raised concerns earlier this season might be a bigger problem for Tom Kim than many are making.

Is Tom Kim's putter quietly officially broken?#WMPO #WMPhoenixOpen #PGADFS #GolfBets
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) February 11, 2024

However, of some promise is that Tom Kim is now four tournaments in a row putting at or above the field average. Certainly, it is not the +4 strokes or more per tournament he was gaining putting when he was on a run of 9 consecutive Top 25s in the end of 2023. But it is a positive trajectory I’m happy to roll the dice on at this price. Similar to Matsuyama, his approach play last week is disguised by a ball in the water Friday and two on Sunday. Outside those three shots, he gained +5.48 SG: APP which was 3rd best in the tournament. On a volatile and windy golf course, the misses are something I can give or take.

I’ve spoken extensively of the correlation to Sedgefield Country Club. Tom Kim opened with a quadruple bogey in his sole Wyndham Championship appearance. He would then still go on to win the tournament, by the small margin of 5 strokes. Should he win here, he would be the 4th player to complete that double.

Byeong-Hun An

Byeong-Hun An continues to be disrespected in betting markets despite compiling a superb season. It may be surprising to some, but Benny An has been the 8th best golfer in this field over the last 6 months for raw SG: TOTAL.

Included in that is another solid performance when 8th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That came in spite of losing on approach for 200+ yards for the last 12 months. He is much stronger in the 100-150 yard approach range, which is really what TPC Sawgrass demands.

Back on the DP World Tour, Benny An won the prestigious BMW PGA Championship on his debut there in 2015 subsequently followed up with a 33-24-15 run before moving to the PGA Tour. He additionally holds a 7th at the RBC Heritage. As for the Sedgefield form, that reads 18-MC-3-35 before he was runner-up in 2023.

Although he hasn’t ever fully translated that to performances at The Players Championship, the Orlando FL resident does hold a 30-26-MC-35 run. That was also when he was in nowhere near the form he is now. He has not missed a cut since July 2023, including 5 finishes of 8th or better. His 2022 Korn Ferry Tour victory also came in Florida on a similar enough course. He would love to complete his resurgent return to the PGA Tour in emphatic style here.

Brian Harman

Another who performed his expected output at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was Brian Harman. On a course that is realistically far too long for him, he finished 12th whilst also being 4th in the field for SG: APP.

That really belies the fact that he struggles on approach longer than 200 yards, with his real strength lying with his short game and his wedge play. The fact he actually lost strokes putting was another interesting data point. The fact he sits 7th in this field for putting over the last 12 months suggests some positive putting regression could be just around the corner.

Harman has typically putted well at The Players Championship, gaining strokes putting in 4/5 of his most recent appearances. 8th in 2015 and 2019, as well as a 3rd place finish in 2021, all suggest that he should find some comfort in this venue while arriving off a great recent start.

Complimenting this are finishes of 3rd and 6th at the Wyndham Championship and 7-44-9-23-MC-28-13-35-7 at the RBC Heritage. It would be no surprise to see The Open Championship winner put in another impressive performance in a strong field here.

Tom Hoge

Much like Russell Henley, Tom Hoge was on our card here last year. In 2023, he arrived here having just missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was priced at 130/1 when making our tips and finished 3rd for a juicy full place payout. So to see him only cut to 80/1 when in better form held much appeal.

Instead, we find him here in a great run of 17-56-6-17-8-28 followed by12th at the Arnold Palmer last week. We were on him there too, where he easily cashed his Top 20 ticket and went very close to a full place payout at +1600. Whilst doing so, he lead the field for SG: APP.

He has always played well at TPC Sawgrass, with form of 72-30-22-33-3. The 2020 tournament that wasn’t he opened with another solid -2 start as well. In his only appearance at Wentworth he finished 14th on debut, again suggesting this should be a strong venue for him.

Alongside being the best player in this field on approach over the last 3 months, I noted some significant improvement in driving accuracy over his last two starts. Typically a small loser or at best driving at the same accuracy at field average, he was 12th for driving accuracy last week and 7th for driving accuracy the week prior. He looks very close to putting it all together and I am happy to roll with Hoge again this week.

Billy Horschel – The Players Betting Tips Best Value

Shoutout to Team Audience, who ruined my hopes and dreams on the PGA Draftcast this week by stealing Billy Horschel away from me. You can catch the replay of the show at the end of this article.

Horschel absolutely jumped off the page for me this week. His performance on tight fiddly courses, such as the 18th at the Sony Open earlier this year. That was backed up by a solid Florida outing at the Cognizant Classic, when finishing 9th in his last start.

This passionate Floridian, who also is a former Florida Gator, has never won in the state and is on the record saying how much that would mean to him: “There’s a lot of goals I haven’t checked off and I’ve always wanted to win in the state of Florida, obviously more than once, but before my career is over,” said Horschel, a graduate of the University of Florida and resident of Jacksonville Beach.

If he is to do so, TPC Sawgrass on paper is a great venue. He holds an extremely strong record at Wentworth, never finishing worse than 18th with a 4-W-9-18 run in just four starts. Further, at the Wyndham Championship he has a 5-60-11-6-2-27-4 form line. Although this has never necessarily correlated to great success here, he only has two MC here before the dark years if 2022 and 2023. Included in that was a best finish of 13th.

Overall, this translates to some excellent value at odds as high as 160/1.

Nick Taylor

This will be the 2nd instance of me including Nick Taylor within these pages. It is fair to say the last time went pretty well.

LET's GO! BOOM!!! 🔥💥

Nick Taylor buries it from a massive 72 feet and secures us ANOTHER outright winner at 66/1 🤯

Stay hot @WinDailySports 🔥🌶️🥵#RBCCanadianOpen #RBCCO #CanadianOpen https://t.co/Lz3hFjHKzU pic.twitter.com/LKNLTSRrc5
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 11, 2023

It amazes me that you can secure Nick Taylor at odds as long as 175/1. The RBC Canadian Open win came at a tight driving test with a heavy reliance on wedge play. He recently secured another huge victory at the WM Phoenix Open in a strong field. He backed that up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational when finishing 12th last week. Both of those came at golf courses that actually doesn’t necessarily play to his strong driving accuracy and are, on paper, too long for him.

This is a much better fit, where he can really lean into his driving accuracy and strong approach play under 150 yards. He finished 16th here back in 2019, sitting 3rd in the tournament that week for SG: APP. An 8th and 10th at Sedgefield are another strong pointer towards a golfer who is criminally underpriced.

Ryan Fox

Finally, I can’t resist a small speculative play on Ryan Fox.

Needless to stay, it has not been a great start to 2024 for Fox since securing his PGA Tour card. Having had a lifelong goal of making the PGA Tour, perhaps this is a factor of needing to reset his goals now he has achieved that.

The main reason for the drop-off in that form has been a regression in his approach performance. We saw some more promising signs when last sighted. That came at a similar enough golf course here in Florida at the Cognizant Classic. He finished 12th for SG: APP at that event, gaining more than 4 strokes on approach.

Although there are concerns with driving accuracy for Fox, he has typically performed well enough on courses that demand that. Included in those are a 14th at the Dubai Invitational, on a narrow course with plenty of water, and in 2022 at the Soudal Open on a very tight tree-lined golf course. The latter of those results came when cracking the shaft on his 2-iron in the final round, a club he quite often will go too off the tee when needing to find the fairway. Further, he is the current BMW PGA Championship winner, beating Aaron Rai at Wentworth

A 27th on debut at TPC Sawgrass was impressive for Fox, on a golf course that typically requires a couple of sightings to really understand. Perhaps the famous 2002 victory of fellow Kiwi Craig Perks can provide some inspiration for Foxy here.

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