PGA DFS Picks

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour’s drive east of Tokyo, Japan. It was initially built in 1976 and features what I would call a ‘claustrophobic design.’ The fairways are of average width, but the venue as a whole emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature where golfers will be required to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout the 18 holes. That means accuracy takes the podium over distance this week, and we should get a general idea of that with the venue measuring under 7,100 yards. I want to note that length isn’t irrelevant if you’re going to intensify your research and think a little outside of the box, but I geared mine towards accuracy when making a build.

We have a unique number of par threes, with all five measuring below 200 yards. The easiest of the five is the 13th, which yields nearly a 20% birdie or better percentage and plays at 141 yards. The three par-fives are lengthy, and all exceed 560 yards. The 14th is 608 yards and only has a 25.2% birdie or better rate – a number that is greatly reduced for what we typically see on tour. And then we have the 10 par-fours that are all over the map in design.

The only other notable point that you will hear a lot of throughout the industry this week is that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter, but golfers will need to be aware of it to avoid making any unnecessary mistakes.

• Weighted Par-Four (20%) – That is built towards Narashino Country Club being the venue in mind. It is going to include a combination of those key distances that I mentioned between 350-400 and 450-500 yards, as well as a varying amount of birdie or better mixed with bogey avoidance. 
• Weighted Par-Three (10%) -We have one more than usual, and four of the five are gettable. That stat is derived from par-three average and then some of the key proximity ranges where the holes are set up. 
• Weighted Par-Five (10%) – Overall par-five birdie or better, some long iron play and how a golfer has performed on longer par-fives throughout their career.
• Weighted Bentgrass (10%) – That is 70% strokes gained total at bentgrass properties and 30% strokes gained putting on bentgrass. I liked that combination because it added in some putting but still kept the premier course fits up top.
• Weighted Proximity (15%) – For the most part, that was removing a lot of the 200+ proximity ranges and recalculating the model to try and mimic some semblance of the venue this week. The percentages won’t be perfect because we don’t have data at hand, but I still think it works better removing the less critical elements from the equation. 
• Strokes Gained Total on Short Par 70s (10%) – Narashino is a specific layout that falls under an easily quantifiable metric. It doesn’t mean all players that have struggled at a shorter test will do so again, but it is nice to have an idea of who is more likely to pop from off the pace. 
• Weighted Driving (15%) – I used a combination of driving accuracy and fairways gained. 
• Sand Save (10%) – There are a lot of bunkers that surround the greens. Being able to get up and down should help salvage score.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Collin Morikawa ($11,200), Xander Schauffele ($11,000) – Unfortunately, pricing is really good, and maybe that has more to do with the fact that the field is watered down at the very bottom, but If I am being honest, I don’t love this tournament from a DraftKings perspective. You get these weird built-in scenarios when you have two golfers that are sub-eight/1 to win the event, and you have to at least consider fading one or both of them in any large-sized GPP if they reach 30%+. However, the problem with that is not only is the ownership warranted, but I also have a hard time seeing how they don’t at least stay competitive. I think the best course of action is to figure out which one you like the most, but you can get very contrarian, very quickly if you skip the big four and build in other directions. Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300) and Will Zalatoris ($10,500) are fine on the surface, but there isn’t a big enough drop-off in ownership or price for me to want to pivot in a separate direction from Morikawa or Schauffele. I’d want at least one of those things to be true, and I don’t think either will be the case in Japan. 

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000) – I realize this will be a contrarian take, but I was able to alter various portions of my model to show the Englishman as a value. Fleetwood is 37th for me out of 78 players when it comes to strokes gained approach, but when I condensed the proximity numbers to equal more of what he should get this weekend at Narashino, he grades eighth in this field. We know from experience that Fleetwood does his best work overseas, and as someone that constantly finds him overvalued, I don’t believe he is here. Playing Fleetwood in any capacity, whether as the second man in behind Morikawa/Xander or as your first option, is a surefire way to get unique.

Favorite Cash Play– Xander Schauffele ($11,000)

$9,000 Range

Joaquin Niemann ($9,900) – The first bet I placed before Paul Casey withdrew from the field was Joaquin Niemann at 28/1. We have seen him go ice cold with the putter recently, but the rest of his game has remained sharp. He has gained with his irons in 14 of 16. Off the tee in 11 of 13, and while we aren’t talking about massive numbers during most of those appearances, my math continues to believe another win is around the corner. The rest of the group is more of a mix-and-match for me. I like this section as a whole, but the majority are fairly priced options that become intriguing because of their reduced ownership number compared to my model. Alex Noren ($9,700) carries some of that Tommy Fleetwood type appeal. I like Erik Van Rooyen at $9,500. Keegan Bradley ($9,400) is more of a GPP target because some of his putting woes might get reduced on these manicured greens. Maverick McNealy ($9,300) and Cameron Tringale ($9,200) are both worth a look in various builds. My model prefers each for cash, but I can be convinced to grab a few shares at the right percentage. And Emiliano Grillo ($9,100) carries a lot of that same potential that we discussed with Keegan Bradley, although I do believe the American has more upside.

Additional Thoughts: Don’t be afraid to play some of these choices for above ownership consensus

$8,000 Range

Jhonattan Vegas ($8,900), K.H. Lee ($8,700) – Both Jhonattan Vegas and K.H. Lee are very much in play. I prefer them in cash because each ranks inside the top-eight of that model, but I am not going to talk anyone out of using them in GPP lineups.

Ryan Palmer ($8,300) – Ryan Palmer’s form looks shaky with multiple missed cuts in his last handful of showings, but I am willing to ignore most of that because of how he fits for the course. He ranks 10th in this field over his past 50 rounds on short par 70 layouts and is inside the top-20 for weighted proximity, putting from 5-10 feet and overall birdie or better percentage. 

Chris Kirk ($8,100) – I believe the stats are better than the form would indicate for Chris Kirk, and it is the same thought process I just mentioned with Ryan Palmer of how the shorter layout might provide more upside. Kirk has gained with his irons in eight of nine starts. Off the tee in four of seven, but this is the kind of venue you would anticipate seeing him find success because of his accuracy off the tee. He ranks 10th in my recalculated proximity category and is inside the top-15 for GIR, three-putt percentage, sand save percentage, overall bogey avoidance, scrambling, par-four average and scoring at a short par 70. Kirk is the most significant disparity in my model regarding my rank versus his price tag of anyone $8,000 or above.

Other Thoughts: I have given a deeper dive to Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) and Charley Hoffman ($8,500). I don’t mind fitting either into builds

$7,000 Range

Brendon Todd ($7,400) –  I love how Brendon Todd has played in his career on similar par-fours as the ones he has in front of him in Japan. He is the number one driver and number one putter in my model, which is a great combination for someone that at least can get hot with the irons out of nowhere. He has pretty much been rotating between earning and losing with his approach game over the last few months, but when he has gained, 2.6 at the Fortinet, 4.6 at the Wyndham – those are also courses that benefit finding fairways.

Pat Perez ($7,300) – I am curious to see where Pat Perez’s ownership goes, but it is worth noting that he withdrew from the Shriners on the final hole of the day on Friday after already being guaranteed to miss the cut. That isn’t an injury problem…that sounds like a man that wants to gamble on the Vegas strip.

Additional Thoughts: I like Garrick Higgo ($7,800) if you are looking for a contrarian dart throw in GPPs. Other top values for me are Harry Higgs ($7,500), Henrik Norlander ($7,400) – preferably cash, Matt Jones ($7,200) has playability across the board, Brendan Steele ($7,100) and my model likes Doug Ghim and Tom Hoge at $7,000.

$6,000 Range

Andrew Putnam ($6,700) – Andrew Putnam is ranked 28th for me overall. 23rd for safety and enters the week with two top-30s over his last three starts. There are certain players this week that received a boost because of their short games, and Putnam did fall into that category by ranking inside of the top-15 in sand save percentage, scrambling, bogey avoidance and bentgrass putting 

James Hahn ($6,300) – There is no guarantee that James Hahn performs in Japan, but he has shown he has winning upside when he does put himself into contention. I always prefer him at a course that rewards driving accuracy, and he should get that here in Narashino

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Roger Sloan ($6,800), Doc Redman ($6,800), Chan Kim ($6,500), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400), Adam Long ($6,300), Kazuki Higa ($6,500), Scott Vincent ($6,400), Rikuya Hoshino ($6,200), Kyle Stanley ($6,200), Wesley Bryan ($6,000) and Shaun Norris ($6,000)

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Summit Club

7,459 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bentgrass

We are back in Las Vegas for the second consecutive week, as the PGA Tour will highlight a course never seen before called the ‘Summit Club.’ And while the venue is just two neighborhoods down the road from where I live, it must be noted that this week’s Tom Fazio design is about as exclusive as you can find in this city. Membership to the facility costs $200,000 per year and finding any data has been extremely hard to come by for those attempting to gather information. Luckily, all is not lost since we should be able to make a few guesses on what to expect, so let’s dive into those answers.

One of the things I try to do is figure out what can be proven. That is information like yardage. What is par? What kind of greens are they playing? Those questions start to point us in a general direction that gives us a blueprint of what to look deeper into for the week. That’s the easy way to get an initial idea, but I do think we can take it a step further if we want to jump into the mix. Many course architects will similarly build their properties, and Tom Fazio is one of those designers. When I look at Fazio venues, there are a few courses that I think are decent comps. Shadow Creek is one, which is the Vegas course used last year, and the second would be Caves Valley – won by Patrick Cantlay a few months ago during the BMW Championship. In reality, you can essentially use any Fazio track for reference, but I went through my models to try and find any corollary stats that stood out across the board, and I noticed most were usually nearly identical each time.

Deep-bunkering will surround undulating fairways and greens. Three-putt avoidance typically means something since complexes are large. When you add to the equation that this surface should be fast because of the Vegas heat, it amplifies that notion even further. Distance almost always has some effect with the venues being wide open, and long iron play helps with the length of the shots in front of us. Other small factors are worth a deeper dive, but this is one of the better tracks we could get for having zero data at our disposal.

• Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split between distance over accuracy. I want golfers that can carry and cut off any of the danger along the way.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage (17.5%) – I will always be on the heavier side of things when given a Par-72.
• Weighted Bentrass (15%) – This category incorporates a 50/50 split between SG:Total on Bentgrass and SGl Putting on Bentgrass. The goal is to find who likes the surface and then marginally add putting into the mix so we don’t just get the premier ball-strikers that can’t finish their work.
• SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (12.5%) – ANOTHER POTENTIAL BIRDIE FEST.
• Proximity From 175+ Yards (15%) – That stat was a staple in almost any Fazio design that I looked into
• Three-putt Avoidance + Around The Green (10%) – The breakdown there is 60% three putt and 40% ATG. These are large surfaces that can get dried out because of the Vegas heat, and short game is going to matter with the undulation at the property
• Weighted Bunker Play (12.5%) – The stat is made up of 70% sand save percentage from green side traps and 30% GIR percentage from fairway bunkers. As I just mentiond. Players with distance will be able to cut off the doglegs, so that is why I weighed the green side ones heavier.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Dustin Johnson ($11,300) – Dustin Johnson is overpriced because of his Ryder Cup performance, but this is one of those spots where I can live with that notion because there is a chance to leverage his ownership to the field. He ranks inside the top five of my model and has always excelled on these fast bentgrass-type properties where straightforward scoring and distance matter. None of this is to say that we can’t fit in more options from the top, but Johnson is one of only two players in this range that grades as a value when looking at ownership versus rank. The other is the man coming up next.

Rory McIlroy ($10,100) – Rory McIlroy is probably my preferred play when looking at stats and ownership combined. McIlroy can easily be paired with another big gun, or you can even choose to start a lineup with him separately. I don’t think you are required to play anybody in this range if you are trying to get contrarian, but the perception is so poor around the Irishman lately that it is opening up a possibility to get him under the radar. McIlroy ranks as the #1 total driver in my model when I restructured the stats to fit this specific course.

Favorite Cash Play– Justin Thomas ($11,100)

$9,000 Range

Tony Finau ($9,600) – Tony Finau has a ton of statistical data pointing in his favor. He ranks second in strokes gained total at bentgrass properties, including being 19th when just looking at putting on these greens. Finau is a good bunker player and should be able to use his length to take advantage of the wide-open nature.

Cameron Smith ($9,200) – Surprisingly, Cameron Smith is actually the top-ranked golfer in my model. I build my spreadsheet without DraftKings prices being incorporated as any sort of a built-in total towards the weight, but you would be surprised how infrequently this scenario plays itself out of where a low-$9,000 dollar golfer grades as the top player. It did happen for Sungjae last week also, but that was a weaker field. I am speaking more of these star-studded events. I couldn’t tell you the last time I didn’t see Rahm, Cantlay, Thomas, Bryson, Rory, Dustin or Morikawa at the top. I know not all those players are in the field this week, but we do have enough to make it worthwhile that Smith is number one. The Aussie grades second in my weighted bentgrass category, first in par-five scoring and first in weighted bunker play.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) – I believe some DFS users might be jumping off the bandwagon too early after Scottie Scheffler’s disastrous showing at TPC Summerlin. Sure, it wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but the American is a golfer that succeeds at these easy courses that reward driving. Scheffler’s upside is unquestioned, and the no-cut narrative should ease some tension.

Additional Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($9,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) and Abraham Ancer ($9,100) are my three least favorite options in this range.

$8,000 Range

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,400) – Tyrrell Hatton ranks 11th in my model for scoring at short courses and ninth in long iron proximity. This will be GPP-only, but the Englishman has the firepower with his long irons to compete if he can keep his head on straight.

Paul Casey ($8,200) – Paul Casey has gained with his irons in 15 straight starts. OTT in seven of eight. And even though the putter has been ice cold, bentgrass is his best surface. Sometimes you don’t need to look any further than value, and Casey has proven he can pay off his salaries when priced this far down the board. I think he is one of the better values to be found.

Patrick Reed ($8,000) – I think Joel said it best on the live show we do here for Win Daily – “Patrick Reed is mispriced.” It has taken me longer in the week to come around to that realization, but the American is an incredible GPP target that has the upside to win this event. He shouldn’t be sub-five percent owned, and it won’t take much to find yourself overweight.

Other Thoughts: Harris English ($8,900) and Shane Lowry ($8,300) are playable in this range.

$7,000 Range

Joaquin Niemann ($7,400) – My model has Joaquin Niemann correctly priced at $9,100. Niemann ranks third for me in my recreated total driving stat and is also 13th for three-putt avoidance. The numbers are better than the form, as he has gained with his irons in 13 of 16 and off the tee in 10 of his past 12.

Alex Noren ($7,100) – Back-to-back top-10s for Alex Noren in his last two starts. The Swede is a great putter that can go low in these birdie shootouts, and while his proximity numbers might leave something to be desired, I do think his short game can clean up most of those mistakes.

Cameron Tringale ($7,000) – A lack of upside might hurt Cameron Tringale for a birdie shootout, but he is the 40th priced golfer in a field where he is a top-20 candidate. That is good enough for me to play him.

Additional Thoughts: Don’t say Jason Day… Don’t say Jason Day…Don’t say Jason Day…

$6,000 Range

Stewart Cink ($6,500) – Stewart Cink is the biggest advantage I have when looking at ownership versus model rank, and it amplifies when I use Cink’s upside as a weight. The American is sneaky long, and we still are looking at sub-one percent ownership. That is a potential recipe to win large-field GPPs

Carlos Ortiz ($6,200) – Irons have turned around for Carlos Ortiz as of late, gaining in eight of nine starts. His driver has seen a similar trajectory after recording a positive total in six of seven.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,400) – Davis didn’t make the main list because of ownership, Matt Jones ($6,300)

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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Bentgrass

Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain in 1991, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course meanders through arroyos and canyons, featuring lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough. I use the word friendly because the rough is only two inches thick, but Bermuda rough can be sticky and cause fliers for those that miss the short grass off the tee. With all that being said, players don’t seem overly concerned about that fact since driving distance is over 13 yards above tour average, but it is worth noting that some of the added distance can be directly correlated to the slight altitude change and firm fairways from the Vegas heat. I think that gives an artificial boost to the shorter hitters, who will get more rollout than they are accustomed to having during a regular stop on tour.

The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin since nine of the past 11 winners have taken home the title at 20-under par or better, but these birdie shootouts that don’t highlight a particular skillset are always a little more challenging to handicap. I tried to keep things predictive in a roundabout way, but there are some loopholes to get past since tournaments such as the Shriners Open could open up the field for more players to find success. 

• Strokes gained Tee to Green (17.5%) – I slightly reconfigured it from how the PGA Tour looks at the stat to try and make it more conducive towards TPC Summerlin. We saw the dispersion in scoring last year be about 15% for both off the tee and around the green – while still coming in at a heavy 37% for approach. I reallocated those percentages to remove putting from the equation entirely, which essentially gave me a weighted T2G metric that incorporated 23% of my total on both OTT and ATG and then 54% on approach.
• Total Driving (17.5%) – That is a 65/35 split of accuracy over distance. Yes, players average 13 yards more off the tee here, but I view that more positively for the shorter hitters. Vegas plays in added elevation, and the heat from the town tends to dry up the fairways and create extra rollout. Distance certainly will help, but the Bermuda grass can make a stickier shot than meets the eye, even if the rough isn’t thick.
• SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (10%) – With nine of the last 11 wins coming at 20-under par or better, it takes a specific type of player 
• SG: Total At TPC Courses L50 (10%) -The TPC filter works nicely since all of the TPC properties are somewhat similar in the sense that they are made for birdies.
• Short Par-Four + Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%) – That is about as low as you will ever see me go for a non-par 70, but most holes out here provide the opportunity to make birdie. I thought pinpointing a specific par-total of any kind for a considerable weight was dangerous because it minimizes the impact that other holes will have.
• Overall Birdie or Better (15%) – Instead, I added 15 percent here. I liked the complete picture this route took of where I still have 25% of my total statistical data being derived by scoring, but it isn’t condensed into a specific range.
• Scrambling (10%) – I considered sand save percentage because over 100 are scattered throughout the property, but I figured scrambling made more sense since golfers will frequently play out of the rough.
• SG: Total on Bentgrass Greens (10%) – This is just another way of looking for potential positive putting regression. I don’t mind adding in three-putt avoidance because these are larger green complexes, but I decided to keep the model and use stats like that as more of an eye test than anything else.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Viktor Hovland ($10,600) – Similar to last week, five of my top-nine golfers are in this range, but I will say that I am not as convinced that we are required to start in the $10,000 section. I don’t see a massive difference between most of these players and the dropdown in the 9k range, but it doesn’t mean I don’t have a few golfers that I will be using. Viktor Hovland feels the hardest for me to shake, as he might be sitting on a significant result, averaging 3.79 shots with his irons over his last eight and 2.65 OTT in his previous 16. Hovland has gained off the tee in 19 of his past 21 and ranks sixth in total driving.

Webb Simpson ($10,200) – If I am forced to give a chalk answer near the top, I don’t mind going down the Webb Simpson route. We have seen this narrative countless times where he is almost bulletproof at specific venues. The Wyndham Championship is the more pronounced definition of that, but even here, he has recorded four straight top-20 results. I think Simpson is one of the must-have cash options, but I can also get creative enough with builds to use him in GPPs.

Favorite Cash Play– Webb Simpson ($10,200)

$9,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – I will find myself littered in this section, as it seems like an optimal strategy to formulate flatter builds. Louis Oosthuizen should have playability across the board because of his 16 straight made cuts, but he also has upside at this specific test. There is a slight worry about his ability to make birdies in bunches for a shootout like this, but he should be safe for cash and still possesses a contrarian nature for GPPs at around 10% ownership. Oosthuizen ranks second on bentgrass greens and first in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,700) – If you look at my model this week, you will notice Scottie Scheffler doesn’t grade out exceptionally well with the way it was released, but one of the things I like to do is alter certain variables on my version to try and see who moves when something is added or subtracted. Scheffler will remain GPP-only for me because there are a few red flags, but some of them are easy to explain, like the fact that he has never finished better than 74th here in two tries. If you remember, Scheffler played in the Shriners tournament last year after taking three weeks off because of COVID-19. And his 74th place finish in 2019 is more aberrational than anything else when you consider that he entered Saturday eight-under par and within striking distance of the leaders. Scheffler feels underweight in projected ownership, and I think he has the upside to win this event at his best. I don’t view this situation much differently than the one I found with Max Homa at the Genesis, where he was lightly owned, but my reconfigured model loved his potential.

Harris English ($9,300) – Haris English ranks inside the top-25 of my model for strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds and is also inside the top-16 over the last two years for scoring at easy courses, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, scrambling and total driving.

Si Woo Kim ($9,000) – Four top-30s in Si Woo Kim’s last five starts. Two top-15s here in his previous three appearances. Top-10 in my model at short courses. I think he fits nicely into a cash build and is still highly usable in GPPs.

Additional Thoughts: I am okay with the idea of using any of the options in this section now that Kevin Na has withdrawn. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,200) are both very playable.

$8,000 Range

Patrick Reed ($8,600) – I consider this GPP-only if his ownership remains sub-10 percent, but he is too good to be priced here and not generate traction. 

Joaquin Niemann ($8,300) – East Lake will sometimes eat a golfer alive, but his ball-striking numbers are trending towards a big result if we remove that start. Niemann has gained OTT in 31 of 34, with his irons in 17 of 20, and he probably has about as much upside as anyone we can find in the $8,000s on the board.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Tringale ($8,500) and Paul Casey ($8,900) will be sprinkled into builds, but I am going so heavy in the $9,000 range that I don’t have a ton of room for multiple selections here. Reed and Niemann are two of the better upside choices.

$7,000 Range

Russell Henley ($7,900) – Russell Henley was shaky in his last start at the BMW Championship, but he had gained at least five shots tee to green in his previous five events. We keep running into this trend with some of these options where I am not sure they can make enough birdies to win the event, but the reason I am willing to forgive Henley for ranking 72nd in my model for overall birdie or better percentage is because of how he performs at a more straightforward test. It is the same theory that I had with Scheffler in the sense that some of his data will get skewed at the more challenging tracks that they play, and we should see a more robust outcome when faced at a birdie fest because of his ball-striking nature.

Brian Harman ($7,600) – Brian Harman always feels universally underpriced for how I run my model. As Sia said on the podcast this week, ” don’t be surprised to see Harman crack into the next range at some point.”

Ian Poulter ($7,000) – Ian Poulter is trending across the board with his strokes gained data. He is the 53rd most expensive player on DraftKings and is 30th in the betting market. That is the third-largest disparity behind only Hayden Buckley and Adam Hadwin.

Additional Thoughts: I will mostly be using this range as random dart throws when not playing the three above. I don’t envision having to use any of these often, but they are options I am either rounding a lineup up with or playing as my second-to-last choice. Stewart Cink ($7,100), Kevin Kisner ($7,400), Sebastian Munoz ($7,000), Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,100), Cameron Davis ($7,300), Sahtith Theegala ($7,500), Seamus Power ($7,400), Cameron Young ($7,000), Talor Moore ($7,300). Volatile options with high upside and high missed cut potential.

$6,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($6,800) – I never play Adam Hadwin. In fact, I usually fade him in H2H wagers, but I love how this course sets up for him. Three top-35s here since 2016, and while he is volatile missing three of his last six cuts, Hadwin has two top-10s recently. The Canadian ranks second in strokes gained total on Bentgrass and fourth in short par-four scoring

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: William McGirt ($6,100), Adam Long ($6,000), Hayden Buckley ($6,600), Harry Hall ($6,000), Mark Hubbard ($6,100), Hank Lebioda ($6,300), James Hahn ($6,400), Kyle Stanley ($6,100), Adam Schenk ($6,800), Matt Kuchar ($6,600), Nick Taylor ($6,300). I am telling you now that if we get half those guys through the cut, I will consider it a success. Hall, Long, Hubbard and Stanley are projected to miss by my math, but they are extremely close. The other handful are barely in on the other side, but I hope that adds a little insight into playable options that my model expects to outproduce their price tag. I won’t find myself down here often this week, but there are random dart throws to target.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.