It’s the start of a new PGA TOUR season and our PGA DFS picks will help us find you some winning teams at the Fortinet Championship!
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Jon Rahm (DK $12,100) – Rahm is the best and most expensive golfer in the field, a historic 3-1 favorite to win, the top golfer in my model, and a must-own DFS play this week. When I really like a player to run away with a tournament despite him being the obvious chalk, my goal is to double the field’s projected PGA DFS ownership. So I’ll probably come in around 50% or more with my Rahmbo exposure this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000) – I may not have big shares of Matsuyama (second overall on my model) this week, simply because it’ll be hard to fit both him and Rahm without going stars-and-scrubs, but he’ll be a staple of my non-Rahm lineups and should fare well based on his elite performance in the focus stat categories (SG: APP, Bob%, Par 5s: 550-600).
Also consider: Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris, Kevin Na (GPP)
Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,200) – I’m intrigued by the excellent SG: OTT numbers for Munoz, both here at Silverado and over his past 36 rounds, and getting it in good position off the tee should yield some good scoring opportunities for the Colombian pro and PGS DFS standout. He’s played steady golf in his last four tournaments and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.
Cameron Champ (DK $9,000) – Champ won here in 2019 after missing the cut in 2017 and finishing T25 in 2018. It’s a venue he likes and for that reason we can throw out the poor SG:APP rating (112th in the field over his past 36 rounds) a bit. He ranks third in SG: OTT (and first in the field in that category at this venue) and should have an easy time with these par 5s.
Charley Hoffman (DK 8,800) – Hoffman could be a great play this week, as he’s third overall on my mixed model despite a spotty course history. We’ve seen Hoffman surprise before, and he’s almost never popular even when he’s striking it well. I’d probably limit my ownership in this event to GPPs, but there’s plenty of birdie-making upside with the Hoff.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900) – Grillo makes a lot of sense as a high-upside, somewhat risky PGA DFS play considering how badly his putter can let him down. He’s No. 1 overall in the field in SG:APP over his last 36 rounds and fifth overall in my mixed model. I’ll be overweight with my exposure in GPPs.
Maverick McNealy (DK $8,600) – Both Sia and I are fans of how McNealy can make birdies in bunches, and while the ball-striking numbers – both recently and on this golf course – have been lacking, this could be the year he breaks through at Silverado with a Top 15 finish. He’s No. 21 overall in my mixed model, even accounting for the relatively poor course history.
Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – Ghim debuted here last season with a T14, and he’s certainly got the game to play well at Silverado again. He pounds it off the tee and is eighth overall in my mixed model. While he does have some accuracy issues and is far from the tour’s best putter, he’s one of my favorite PGA DFS GPP plays this week.
Also consider: Harold Varner (Cash), Chez Reavie (Cash), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Mito Pereira, Taylor Moore (GPP), Adam Hadwin (GPP), Sepp Straka, Brian Stuard, Harry Higgs (GPP)
Patton Kizzire (DK $7,500) – Kizzire is another hit-or-miss PGA DFS GPP play with a dynamic game and erratic tee ball game. He’s long enough that he can occasionally hit less-than-driver and still be fine, but he’s had some difficulty at Silverado in his last three tries (all MCs) after finishing second to Brendan Steele in 2016. I’ll have some exposure in large-field GPPs, but I don’t think I can take the plunge in single-entry or cash.
Ryan Moore (DK $7,500) – I’d normally be pretty averse to Ryan Moore because he’s burned me a few times before, but he’s had some solid finishes at Silverado (including a T2 in 2018) and could be a decent low-owned play in GPPs. He’s No. 10 overall in my mixed model and his numbers across this week’s focus stats don’t show any glaring weaknesses.
Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – Steele won this event two years in a row (2016-17) and will likely be more popular than usual because of it. But he’s a consistent player who hits it straight off the tee, thrives in the California venues and doesn’t miss cuts here (seven in a row).
Adam Schenk (DK $7,300) – This is where things start to get a little bit risky, so I’d steer clear of Schenk and the next few guys in cash games. He’s another player that Sia and I both like this week, and he ranks 16th on my model behind some decent putting and birdie numbers. Hitting good drives at this venue has historically ben a struggle, but his SG:OTT numbers have been better lately and he’s got a T14 to his credit here in 2018.
Hank Lebioda (DK $7,100) – Hammerin’ Hank comes in at No. 23 in my model and is a huge risk since he’s missed the cut twice in three attempts at Silverado. But I’m willing to give him a shot in a few GPPs based on his ability to make birdies and the T44 he notched here in 2019.
Luke List (DK $7,100) – Sia wrote up newcomer Chad Ramey (and not Lebioda or List – two guys he normally loves), so I’ll take up the mantle and tout them. List can really stink it up with his putter, but he’s No. 11 on my model this week and seems to have a decent handle on this venue, with a T4 in 2018 and two other Top 40s in previous appearances. His ball-striking and Par 5 dominance are quite attractive in this field.
Chesson Hadley (DK $7,000) – He can’t be the Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) again because he’s not under $7K, but he’s exactly the type of golfer we target in GPPs for his upside when he’s hitting it good off the tee, a huge advantage on this course, where he’s played very well (T14, T23, T87, T3 in his last four tries at Silverado).
Cameron Percy (DK $6,800) – Percy has a T23 and T7 in his last two starts in Napa and just eats up the par 5s here. He’s going to be a huge piece of my stars-and-scrubs builds and could end up being my BBB if he lands under 5% ownership.
More value golfers to consider: Dylan Frittelli, Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, Hudson Swafford, Adam Svensson, Russell Knox (GPP), Patrick Rodgers, Bo Hoag, Sam Ryder, Kyle Stanley, Adam Long (GPP)
Mark Hubbard (DK $6,500) – Hubbard is No. 25 in my model and probably the best PGA DFS golfer you can roster at $6,500 or under this week based on his BoB% and putting numbers, when combined with relatively decent ball-striking. His SG: OTT numbers are his biggest weakness, but at this price there’s always a weakness.
Danny Lee (DK $6,400) – I don’t have a ton of interest in the punts this week, but Lee is worth a look in large-field GPPS and in your “scrubs” pieces based on decent overall numbers and some excellent finishes here (T10 in 2018). Don’t go overboard with your exposure to this risky but dynamic player.
Paul Barjon (DK $6,200) – Barjon is popping at No. 22 in my mixed model – the only golfer under $6,500 in my top 25. The biggest knock is his lack of PGA Tour experience and course history at this venue, where he’s making his debut. But I like PGA DFS guys who hit it solid off the tee and have putters that come alive and make birdies.
Additional GPP punts: Michael Gligic, Dylan Wu, Beau Hossler, Curtis Thompson
The new PGA Tour year is already underway as a full field of golfers descend upon The Fortinet Championship. This tournament comes with some headliners like Jon Rahm, but also features plenty of new names who have just obtained their PGA Tour cards. Tune into the Win Daily PGA Show at 8:00 TONIGHT for everything on all the players and course dynamics. In short, I’ll be looking for a combination of ball strikers and scorers (BOB Gained and Par 5 scoring in particular). Now, let’s get to the Fortinet Championship Initial Picks.
Jon Rahm (12100) – The best in the world coming out to play this tournament is a bit of surprise, but I expect his foot to be on the pedal and the main reason to fade him is if you’re trying to get different in a big GPP.
Will Zalatoris (10500) – We saw WillyZ cool off a bit toward the back end of the PGA Tour season and a lot of that had to do with the putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s gained pretty significantly with the putter so I’m willing to dive back in on the rookie of the year.
Charley Hoffman (8800) – Hoffman’s game was a little erratic toward the back half of the season but there’s no question he’s an elite ball striker when he’s on. I think he has a shot to contend in this field. You’ll notice I didn’t write up anyone in the 9k range, but Hoffman actually belongs in that price range.
Emiliano Grillo (8900) – Grillo is a great course fit in spite of middling results at The Fortinet Championship (previously the Safeway). I’m going to lean on the ball striking upside and hope for a decent putter. I’m guessing he won’t be rostered much and therefore I like him more as a GPP play only.
Maverick McNealy (8600) – The numbers haven’t been great as of late and his price is a bit high, but I’m hoping that makes him a somewhat unpopular play. If so, I’ll throw him into some GPP’s as I’m a fan of his scoring and birdie upside.
Chez Reavie (8500) – The putting can go sideways with Reavie but the ball striking is great. He’s made his last 4 cuts here and recent form looks very solid. A nice course fit at the Fortinet Championship.
Mito Pereira (8000) – He burst onto the PGA Tour scene a few months back. He’s tailed off a bit but certainly has the upside to contend here. The putter is likely to be the main issue with Mito. Other than that he rates out well. I only like him for GPP.
Doug Ghim (7900) – Pretty much a perfect course fit who showed promise last year with a 14th place finish. His putter is a big issue, but he’s been ok in that department as of late. If he’s good with the putter, don’t be surprised if he is in the mix on Sunday.
Brian Stuard (7600) – A short and accurate striker who can really putt. His main issue is that he may not score as well on the Par 5s as some of these other guys, but I like his all-around game and I expect him to make the cut.
Adam Schenk (7300) – You may recall I was on Schenk a handful of times last year and I’ll try him again at the Fortinet Championship as well. He comes in just above average OTT and APP, but he’s Top 10 in SG Par 5 and 12th in PUTT. I like this price especially if he’s super low owned.
Chad Ramey (7000) – I’m throwing Ramey into the article because that’s what the bookmakers are telling me to do. For some reason Ramey is 70 to 1, but he is in a Draftkings price range with golfers who are mostly 100 to 1 or longer. These types of discrepancies should not be ignored. Add to that Ramey has been very good on the KFT Tour and is a good ball striker.
Bo Hoag (6800) – I’m convinced this guy is better than people think and I’m hoping we see it this week. He rates out great in my model and I think there is some upside at this price. He rates out well on APP, BOB Gained and SG Par 5. His history here isn’t bad either. A GPP play only.
Mark Hubbard (6500) – In this field Hubbard should probably be in the 7k range. He’s no superstar but he’s Top 30 on APP, PUTT, ARG, Good Drives and SG Par 5.
Jim Herman (6500) – We are definitely in the punt range, but I’m a pretty big fan of Herman. He’s been great OTT and solid on APP. He’s also Top 25 in BOB Gained and SG Par 5.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.
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Welcome to the FedEx Cup Playoff finale. The Tour Championship will guarantee some big paydays for this entire field, with the winner taking home 15 million dollars. The DK field is comprised of only 29 players but Patrick Reed should be added which would round out the 30 person field. We will talk about course dynamics and roster construction on Tuesday’s PGA Livestream so make sure to join us there at 8:00 EST. Please keep in mind starting strokes apply here (which we will also talk about on the PGA show). My focus this week is to be a little more contrarian than normal in GPP as there will be some mega-chalk with this week. Let’s get to the Tour Championship picks.
Jon Rahm (13000) – Rahm begins this tournament four shots behind pre-tournament leader Patrick Cantlay, but that doesn’t concern me at all. Rahm is playing better golf than anyone and I expect him to prove he’s the best golfer on the planet this week. He starts at -6.
Tony Finau (11000) – He’s in excellent form (other than a pedestrian showing last week), but he’ll only be a play for me if his ownership is relatively low (relative to the rest of the 10k and above range). He starts at -8.
Dustin Johnson (10700) – I think DJ will end up being relatively contrarian since most people will choose to pay up for a star in better form or pay down for a guy like Rory or Xander (both of whom I also like). DJ isn’t in the best form but has some great East Lake and Tour Championship history. Won’t take much for him to get his groove back. He starts at -3.
Rory McIlroy (9300) – Great price plus great form plus great history. Rory is likely to be very popular at this price so feel free to fade him due to ownership, but he’s a great value and I’ll find a way to play him. He starts at -2.
Xander Schauffele (8900) – Another guy likely to be popular and for good reason. He absolutely destroys East Lake and illustrated that last year shooting a true 15 under par (that’s NOT accounting for starting strokes). He starts at -2.
Viktor Hovland (8000) – I’m trying to stay patient with Hovland as he was a disappointment last week. With that said, he did gain over 5.5 strokes BS and it was the short game that really failed him. At this price I’m willing to see if he can turn it around and climb the Tour Championship leaderboard. He starts at -3.
Scottie Scheffler (6800) – He was curiously bad OTT last week but great on APP. He’s way behind from a starting strokes standpoint but certainly has the complete game to climb the leaderboard. He starts at -1.
Hideki Matsuyama (6400) – A monster with the ball striking and simply needs to catch a good putter. It’s a tall order for Hideki to climb the Tour Championship leaderboard, but at this price I’m willing to invest (unless his ownership is prohibitive). He starts at -1.
Joaquin Niemann (5600) – With Berger and EVR likely garnering a ton of ownership, I’ll use Niemann as my GPP pivot. Niemann was great BS last week and was bad with the short game. I’m willing to take a chance on him to avoid some chalk (I do like Berger’s price so I will find a way to play him here and there despite his anticipated mega-chalk status). Niemann starts at -1.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.
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It’s Week 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and our PGA DFS picks should help us find some winning teams at the BMW Championship!
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Jon Rahm (DK $11,700) – He’s No. 1 on my mixed model and is the clear top dog and betting favorite, despite the final few holes at the Northern Trust that saw him slide into solo third place. That finish was good enough for his fourth straight top 10 and 12th of 2021. No reason to move away from him this week other than the possibility he’s carrying some frustration into the BMW.
Xander Schauffele (DK $11,100) – I like the idea of Xander getting a no-cut event on the heels of a weird week that saw him crack 70 only once – a second-round 62 that was a very short-lived tie for the course record. He’s the best option over $10K – albeit a pretty expensive one – that isn’t named Rahm.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,600) – No more discounts for JT, but I love him in GPPs, where his T2G game and ability to make birdies could help him rise to the occasion. He made 66 of 68 putts inside 10 feet last week, but never seemed to follow up his opening round 63 with lights-out play. Perhaps he’s ready to do that in the second week of the playoffs, when the stakes are a little higher.
Tony Finau (DK $9,800) – I joked last week (and so did the Breakdown crew) about how “he’s not much of a threat to win,” but could be a great to help you win a GPP. Well, he won the damn thing – and that confidence boost is just what’s been holding him back in final rounds over the past few years. There’s no way I’m fading him after that gutsy performance.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Cameron Smith
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,300) – His distance and ability tot make putts seem tailored for this particular venue, and he shows up as second overall in my mixed model. While his inconsistency and preponderance to make bad decisions – and stupid bogeys – reared their ugly heads at Liberty National, he could dominate at Caves Valley, a venue where power and T2G precision are required. And I love the discount.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – We mentioned last week that he prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, and that he’s third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021. Perhaps this week he can put it all together and climb up the leaderboards if a few more putts go down early. A great GPP play with Top 3 upside.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – A few days after a broken putter self-sabotaged his final round and tanked a lot of the WinDaily readership’s lineups, we should probably go right back to the ell with Hovland, who’s a T2G monster and normally seems pretty even-keeled on the golf course. With no real course history to look at, he doesn’t lose any advantage that more experienced tour veterans players would normally have.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,900) – Scheffler seems almost mispriced considering his upside and the way he checks all the boxes this week at Caves Valley. He’s sixth overall on my model and will be in all my single-entry GPP builds and up to 40 or 50 percent of my lineups. I love his chances to get a win here. Go get some exposure to the tall 25-year-old shining star with the great T2G game.
Corey Conners (DK $8,600) – The Canadian ball-striking sensation checks in at 15thoverall in my rankings, his putting woes and weak Driving Distance rankings the only things holding him back from the top 10. I’ll be a little more careful with him this week, maybe limiting my GPP ownership and using him in some crafty cash builds.
Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – Last week we didn’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists, and while he didn’t do enough to help take down the large-field GPPs, he was T11 after three rounds at Liberty National and I love him again for that type of tournament this week. The T2G numbers aren’t excellent, but he’s got a bit of the Cameron Smith ability to bang it out there and clean things up by capitalizing on Par 5s and making a few more birdies than everybody else. He and Smith are actually right next to each other at Nos. 28 and 29 in my mixed model.
Paul Casey (DK $8,200) – Casey seems like the cash game play to Burns’ GPP analog, but I like him everywhere this week in a no-cut event at this discount price. The nicest guy on tour has the chops to live in the elite tier with the big boys in just about any tournament, and his proximity on approaches 200+ yards is one stat I really like.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,000) – I’m including Im here based on the detailed Breakdown that Sia, Joel and Spencer gave us this week – one of the things that got me interested in Finau last week. Im showed up 25th I my mixed model and while he has some momentum after a scrappy top 20, I was kind of on the fence until they touted him. The price is excellent and the upside is there on this golf course, where his T2G skills are at a premium.
Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – Still a great price on Lowry! We talked about his top 5 upside last week and he was right there until a less-than-stellar back nine. The Irishman ranked sixth in SG: T2G for the week at Liberty National and should be priced well over $8K. Take advantage of that disrespect by rostering him in 25-30% (or more) of your lineups.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,700) – He cracked the PGA Tour’s BMW Top 20 Power Rankings this week, which always provides a nice little glimpse of what could be some the chalkier PGA DFS plays for the week, but Sia really likes him and I’m intrigued by his excellent ball-striking and ability to hit good drives that aren’t that far back from the big boys.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak (GPP)
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,500) – Spencer likes Tringale this week and while I have harder time getting him right, it’s a fine time to go back to the well considering the veteran’s solid play over the past 36 rounds. I don’t love him most weeks, but he’s been consistent over the past four events (T14-T-26-T16 and T21 last week at Liberty National) and he can go really low some days.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,300) – Champ’s game has been rounding into better form and he’s exorcised some of the putting and short-game demons that plague his power-forward game. He’s gotten it done since a T11 at the John Deere Classic and his win at the 3M Open, which he capped with a bogey-free final round 66. Steer clear in cash games, but get some exposure in GPPs.
Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,100) – Vegas is my favorite play in the low-$7K range because of his distance, OTT numbers and T2G metrics. In fact, he’s No. 13 in my model and the only $7K player in my top 15. I’ll be using him in my single-entry builds and a lot of GPPs. Sure, he might get chalky if we’re all sticking to our models and playing the optimals, but this is a truly great spot for him, especially with no cut and guaranteed four cracks at this gettable golf course.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,000) – We said last week that he really likes long golf courses and he ended up as both Sia’s Secret Weapon (SW) and my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB), two low-ownership special Discord-exclusive perks that we divulge on Wednesday night for our premium subscribers. The T2G numbers are there and I think he’ll benefit from the smooth, fast Bentgrass greens this week as well.
Cameron Davis (DK $6,900) – Davis is only No. 32 in my mixed model, but I like the fact that he can plop one into the water, hit a rock and ricochet off a few things in the grandstands before landing 10 feet from the hole for an eventual eagle. Seriously – I like him in a no-cut event where he’ll have some leeway to spray it a bit and get back to the business of making birdies, where he’s eight in the field in BoB Gained.
Stewart Cink (DK $6,600) – Cink might end up being my BBB if his ownership is low enough, because no-cut events make it almost impossible to find non-chalky value under $7K and less than 5% ownership. So maybe no BBB this week, but I’ll have shares of Cink for his length off the tee and “veteran tour grinder” makeup. But he’ll be well under 10% for my overall exposure.
More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Branden Grace, Marc Leishman (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP)
Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500) – We can load up on long hitters like Mitchell a bit more this week, but I suspect he’ll be popular after his epically clutch finish at Liberty National to make the top 70. Plenty to like about his game heading into a venue that requires length OTT.
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,400) – Palmer is long enough, and he could fly under-the-radar this week, so I’ll be getting 10-15% exposure in my large-field GPPs. Perfect last piece for medium stars-and-scrubs builds. Maybe this is the week he surprises and sneaks into the top 15.
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,200) – Kizzire is a little riskier but benefits from the no-cut format and the perks of DK scoring, where birdies and eagles (and streaks) are king. I worry about his ability to find fairways and greens, but there’s upside in his power-and-putting game.
Hudson Swafford (DK $6,000) – The super-risky Swafford only makes sense as a last piece on extreme stars-and-scrubs, but the DK scoring rules and guaranteed four rounds are his friend this week. We know he’s a dynamic player who can get really hot, go low and win tournaments when they are ripe for scoring.
Additional GPP punts: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge
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