PGA DFS Picks

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,600) – I mentioned it on the Win DAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYly show tonight, which has a name, but doesn’t have a name yet, that until Jon Rahm is priced in the $12,000 range, it is going to continue to be chalky Rahm weeks. There is nothing negative to say about the Spaniard in Arizona, although I will comment on handing Joel a small gift during our draft tonight by taking Scottie Scheffler first overall. Consider it a present because of the birth of his daughter a few days ago. I am a very generous friend.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) – Patrick Cantlay looks like he will be the forgotten man in the $10,000 section, but I would be cautious in overlooking his name when making a build. Cantlay will open up a great deal of leverage for those willing to take a chance on the American, and I do want to stress that no course history isn’t the same as bad course history. We have seen plenty of golfers find success here during their first trip.

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) – We should have just renamed the ‘Waste Management Open’ the ‘Hideki Matsuyama Open’ a few years back. No player in this field has found as much success out at TPC Scottsdale as Matsuyama, who is entering the week with form after winning two of his past four starts.

Other Consideration – I will be underweight towards most of the rest of the group.

$9,000 Range

Daniel Berger ($9,200) – The fear around Daniel Berger pulling out of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has caused a massive reduction in ownership for the American this weekend at TPC Scottsdale. I would keep a close eye on his status as we near Thursday, but there is a contrarian discount looming for someone grading sixth in my model and second for my partner Nick Bretwisch of the ‘Bettor Golf Podcast.’

Scottie Scheffler ($9,100) – Did I jump the gun on Scottie Scheffler during the draft? Perhaps. But I wanted to make sure I locked in a golfer that is extremely simple to build practically any lineup you wish around. Scheffler grades seventh in par-five scoring and is third in total driving – two categories I find to be extremely important for finding success.

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9,700), Bubba Watson ($9,000) – I have some trepidation around Xander this week, but it is hard to argue his four top-17 finishes at the track. As for Watson, this is a Bubba track, and we all know how Bubba loves to Bubba at a Bubba track.

$8,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800) –  We haven’t seen Louis Oosthuizen in action since pulling out of the RSM Classic. I have no real concerns about a lingering injury, but I wish we could have gotten some form out of him before having to lock the South African in at 15 percent ownership. All in all, I think Louis makes for a safe addition to a squad, but his winning upside could be capped because of the lack of golf.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,700) -Is Matthew Fitzpatrick a perfect DFS target this week? No. But he does provide an insanely good discount in popularity for those that need to find a way to stray away from the masses. The Englishman ranks top-10 in my model for both weighted tee-to-green and strokes gained on a fast surface.

Other Thoughts: I am generally fading this range.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Billy Horschel ($7,900) – I really like Billy Horschel this week, and he should have been mine in the draft. All blame goes to Sia, even though the audience inevitably landed him. Billy Horschel=good. Sia=bad.

Talor Gooch ($7,800) – Talor Gooch is -180 at a credible offshore book in a head-to-head matchup against Abraham Ancer. I hate using that as my reasoning, but Gooch is a top-15 golfer in this field if we remove his spotty course history – something I am willing to ignore because of his improvement in 2022.

Luke List ($7,700) – List is playing some of the best golf of his career. Despite the popularity he possesses, the American is in play in most game types.

Keith Mitchell ($7,500) – Keith Mitchell is volatile, but he is one of the biggest climbers in my model when I condense the data down over the past 24 rounds. It doesn’t hurt matters that we have seen him gain off the tee in 13 consecutive starts.

K.H. Lee ($7,300) – The game is trending in a good spot for a golfer that finished second at the venue last year.

Cameron Davis ($7,200) – I think Cameron Davis is one of the most mispriced players on the board in any market you want to look at. The Aussie grades inside the top-25 of this field in total driving, par-five birdie or better percentage and overall aggression, which is is pretty much the exact blueprint I am trying to find this week on my golfers. 

Additional Thoughts: Kevin Streelman ($7,100) is a fun GPP target at one percent ownership

$6,000 Range

Martin Laird ($6,800) – Martin Laird has quietly been better than his results, gaining with his irons in 10 of 11 starts and off the tee in 9 of 11. Add to that his four top-nine finishes at Scottsdale in 12 tries, and we start to get a good sleeper option on a golfer that has gained with his flat stick in 7 of 12 appearances at the track.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Adam Hadwin ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,600), Matt Wallace ($6,500)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($11,200) – I think many Patrick Cantlay constructions will have very similar starts this week to their builds. I would be conscious in realizing that before utilizing the second-highest owned player on the board in the standard Cantlay/Jason Day, Cantlay/Maverick McNealy or Cantlay/Kevin Streelman type of start. Cantlay is the best player in this field, but you will need to make sure to utilize him correctly.

Jordan Spieth ($10,300) –Jordan Spieth has finished inside the top-22 at this event in eight of his nine attempts, with the lone outlier coming during his cold stretch in 2019 – an event he still managed to end 45th after losing 6.4 shots with his ball-striking. It is hard to call this a boom-or-bust selection when his course history reads like a beautiful story, but the 28-year-old is someone that can be used as a leverage play at his current ownership marks.

Other Consideration – If you can find someone else that is in this field in the $10,000s, either play them or fade them because you have hacked the site.

$9,000 Range

Jason Day ($9,900) – In the words of the great Eminem, “Guess who’s back, back again. Day is back, tell a friend.”

Maverick McNealy ($9,800) – Maverick McNealy is shaping up to be the most popular player on the board, but you aren’t going to find too many negatives about him outside of ownership. I believe Seamus Power ($9,400) is the most natural pivot to McNealy on the board (I actually like Seamus more in a vacuum), but there are builds where the California native will make sense.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) – I don’t have an answer for why Matthew Fitzpatrick doesn’t have better history at Pebble Beach. A short course where Poa putting and par-five scoring both loom large sounds like a recipe where the Englishman would compete, but a 60th and missed cut here since 2020 has dampened some of the intrigue around him for his first worldwide start of 2022. The hesitation has moved him into a range where he is only projected to be six percent owned, which is way too shallow for a golfer with tangible win equity this week.

Other Targets: I meantioned Seamus Power ($9,400) in the portion above. He is one of my favorite targets this week in all price ranges. Spieth/Seamus, Day/Seamus or Cantlay/Seamus would be a strong start.

$8,000 Range

Matt Jones ($8,000) –  There isn’t much early love for Matt Jones, who has made the cut at Pebble Beach during 12 of his 14 attempts throughout his career. I bet Jones at 70/1 in the outright market and love his statistical potential where he grades inside the top-21 in five of the seven categories I looked into for the week.

Other Thoughts: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) is perfectly acceptable in cash and GPP builds. Ryan Palmer ($8,900) has also received a ton of influential money in the industry. I prefer him for GPP-only if I am going to use him, but sharp money is always worth noting.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading. This group is extremely strong this week.

Chris Kirk ($7,700) – Chris Kirk is a great wind player that excels at short courses. He also ranks number one in this field in par-four scoring between 400-450 yards.

Andrew Putnam ($7,600) – Six made cuts in his last seven starts. Ownership remains subdued at just six percent. Consider him a nice pivot off of a trendy Matt Kuchar (who I do like myself).

Patrick Rodgers ($7,400) – Patrick Rodgers is a much better player around the green than most of his counterparts in this range, ranking 11th over his past 24 rounds. The risk is on full display after missing three of his past four cuts at the course, but I’m willing to ignore some of the negatives because of the upside he brings at sub-five percent ownership.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,200) – If you are looking to get frisky this week, Taylor Pendrith is breaking my model when looking for upside. I had to reduce his numbers across the board to get him into his 20th-place total for GPPs.

Sahith Theegala ($7,200) – Sahith Theegala is buzzing to start 2022, positing three straight finishes inside the top-48 — with every result better than his previous. These tests where scrambling will come into play are always right in his wheelhouse, and I think he has the intangibles to find success in this sort of a rotational structure. 

Additional Thoughts: Vincent Whaley ($7,100), Scott Stallings ($7,100), Wyndham Clark ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I would play down here sparringly. You can hear Sia Nejad, Joel Schreck and I rattle off some names on the ‘Live Show.’

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($11,200) – I think many Patrick Cantlay constructions will have very similar starts this week to their builds. I would be conscious in realizing that before utilizing the second-highest owned player on the board in the standard Cantlay/Jason Day, Cantlay/Maverick McNealy or Cantlay/Kevin Streelman type of start. Cantlay is the best player in this field, but you will need to make sure to utilize him correctly.

Jordan Spieth ($10,300) –Jordan Spieth has finished inside the top-22 at this event in eight of his nine attempts, with the lone outlier coming during his cold stretch in 2019 – an event he still managed to end 45th after losing 6.4 shots with his ball-striking. It is hard to call this a boom-or-bust selection when his course history reads like a beautiful story, but the 28-year-old is someone that can be used as a leverage play at his current ownership marks.

Other Consideration – If you can find someone else that is in this field in the $10,000s, either play them or fade them because you have hacked the site.

$9,000 Range

Jason Day ($9,900) – In the words of the great Eminem, “Guess who’s back, back again. Day is back, tell a friend.”

Maverick McNealy ($9,800) – Maverick McNealy is shaping up to be the most popular player on the board, but you aren’t going to find too many negatives about him outside of ownership. I believe Seamus Power ($9,400) is the most natural pivot to McNealy on the board (I actually like Seamus more in a vacuum), but there are builds where the California native will make sense.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) – I don’t have an answer for why Matthew Fitzpatrick doesn’t have better history at Pebble Beach. A short course where Poa putting and par-five scoring both loom large sounds like a recipe where the Englishman would compete, but a 60th and missed cut here since 2020 has dampened some of the intrigue around him for his first worldwide start of 2022. The hesitation has moved him into a range where he is only projected to be six percent owned, which is way too shallow for a golfer with tangible win equity this week.

Other Targets: I meantioned Seamus Power ($9,400) in the portion above. He is one of my favorite targets this week in all price ranges. Spieth/Seamus, Day/Seamus or Cantlay/Seamus would be a strong start.

$8,000 Range

Matt Jones ($8,000) –  There isn’t much early love for Matt Jones, who has made the cut at Pebble Beach during 12 of his 14 attempts throughout his career. I bet Jones at 70/1 in the outright market and love his statistical potential where he grades inside the top-21 in five of the seven categories I looked into for the week.

Other Thoughts: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) is perfectly acceptable in cash and GPP builds. Ryan Palmer ($8,900) has also received a ton of influential money in the industry. I prefer him for GPP-only if I am going to use him, but sharp money is always worth noting.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading. This group is extremely strong this week.

Chris Kirk ($7,700) – Chris Kirk is a great wind player that excels at short courses. He also ranks number one in this field in par-four scoring between 400-450 yards.

Andrew Putnam ($7,600) – Six made cuts in his last seven starts. Ownership remains subdued at just six percent. Consider him a nice pivot off of a trendy Matt Kuchar (who I do like myself).

Patrick Rodgers ($7,400) – Patrick Rodgers is a much better player around the green than most of his counterparts in this range, ranking 11th over his past 24 rounds. The risk is on full display after missing three of his past four cuts at the course, but I’m willing to ignore some of the negatives because of the upside he brings at sub-five percent ownership.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,200) – If you are looking to get frisky this week, Taylor Pendrith is breaking my model when looking for upside. I had to reduce his numbers across the board to get him into his 20th-place total for GPPs.

Sahith Theegala ($7,200) – Sahith Theegala is buzzing to start 2022, positing three straight finishes inside the top-48 — with every result better than his previous. These tests where scrambling will come into play are always right in his wheelhouse, and I think he has the intangibles to find success in this sort of a rotational structure. 

Additional Thoughts: Vincent Whaley ($7,100), Scott Stallings ($7,100), Wyndham Clark ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I would play down here sparringly. You can hear Sia Nejad, Joel Schreck and I rattle off some names on the ‘Live Show.’

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas ($10,900) – I know we have potential issues around Justin Thomas this week. He hasn’t played the Farmers since 2015 — an event where he missed the cut, but there are reasons to be optimistic about his 19th-place finish during the 2021 U.S. Open. The one-time major winner entered the back-nine that day with a real shot to win his second major, but multiple mistakes at the par-four 10th and par-three 16th sent the American freefalling off the first page of the leaderboard. By my math, Thomas has the second-best win equity in this field but is being treated like one of the forgotten about high-priced stars.

Xander Schauffele ($10.100) – It has been all-or-nothing for Xander Schauffele at Torrey Pines, as we have seen him three top-25 finishes during his last four stops at Torrey to go along with missing four of his first five. Schauffele is more of a boom-or-bust than anyone would care to recognize, but I believe we get the best version of him, which makes him a true threat for the title.

Other Consideration – There is decent leverage here in most spots.

$9,000 Range

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900) – There is always some downside when you back Bryson DeChambeau on the DFS slate, but the fact that we get him both sub-$10,000 and sub-10 percent is enough for me to find myself not exactly Hulk-smash fit but definitely overweight.

Other Targets: Scottie Scheffler $9,500 (GPPs),Marc Leishman $9,000 (all games). Finau is probably good chalk at $9,100.

$8,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($8,900) – I wouldn’t sweat the missed cut. The Farmers Insurance Open is. better layout for his game, and he has been on a rhythm when we remove last week’s debacle.

Maverick McNealy ($8,300) – We have seen tons of sharp money enter the market on Maverick McNealy. California and Poa are where he shines best.

Other Thoughts: Matthew Wolff $8,500 (GPPs), Max Homa $8,400 (GPPs)

$7,000 Range

Wyndham Clark ($7,200) – There is a potential opening for Wyndham Clark that my model noticed. There has been a change as of late after Clark managed to gain with his irons in four of six starts — highlighted by a 13th place finish during last week’s American Express. The 220th-ranked golfer in the world has two top-40s in his three tries at Torrey Pines, and this is with him averaging nearly three shots worse to the field with his irons in those finishes.

Additional Thoughts: Billy Horschel $7,800 (GPPs), Joaquin Niemann $7,700 (GPPs), Matt Jones $7,200

$6,000 Range

Sepp Straka ($6,300) – Sepp Straka opens up the world if you fit him into a build. Course history looks good. The current form is a positive. There is a ton to like about his potential.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I would play down here sparringly.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

PGA West Stadium Course

7,200 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Overseeded Poa

I want to make sure I don’t overcomplicate this process because that might do more harm than good. There will be a ton of strange quirks that we aren’t used to seeing during most stops, which can add some hesitation on the correct way to handle everything in front of us. For me, I am going to try and make as many connections between the three setups this week as I can because that is the only way in my mind to play a tournament that has a 54-hole cut and rotational nature.

The first thing that stuck out to me was that it appears as if the Bermuda grass is dormant at all tracks. If that is the case, it means we will get a Poa overseeded texture. I didn’t use that in my calculations because all the venues are easy, but let’s instead talk about what numbers I did find pertinent to my research process. All three courses are under 7,200 yards. That places them inside the 15 shortest on tour. We also see all three rank inside the bottom-15 in difficulty — that is just another way of saying they are straightforward. There is only so much we can do from a statistical perspective to get unique, but here is how I ended up weighing my model.

• Total Driving (25%) – We have seen accuracy guys like Ancer find success here in the past, which is why it is being added to the equation, but I still believe distance over accuracy is the way to go because it does take away so many of the potential problems. That ended up being a 65/35 split to get total driving. 
• GIR Percentage Out Of Fairway Bunkers(10%) – If golfers do miss the fairways, it likely will leave them in these extensive fairway bunkers.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) -Golfers will get 16 chances to score on those holes across the three stops, and it has been the most indicative category to finding success of anything we get this week. 
• Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
• Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I condensed it to par-three average and bogey avoidance. You could get deeper with it and include proximity ranges, but I bypassed both. Maybe that is the incorrect mindset, but when you get courses as easy as these three, some of that almost burdens a model when you say a poor putter or bad proximity player can’t find a recipe for success. Those two stats aren’t exactly the most predictive in many ways.
• Strokes Gained Total On Easy Courses Under 7,200 (25%) – Categories like this combine all three tracks and give us an easily identified blueprint.
• Strokes Gained Total On Pete Dye (10%) – That only applies to the Stadium Course, but once again, that is where 50% of the rounds will take place.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on our Win Daily Show on Tuesday night, “You could make Jon Rahm $12,500, and it would be acceptable.” Let’s see where the ownership goes, but there is no reason he should be this close in price to the likes of Scottie Scheffler or as close in popularity as he is to Patrick Cantlay. Rahm is the best player in every field but is especially strong in a tournament that drops off like the American Express.

Tony Finau ($10.200) – Is the price tag a little high? Sure. But it has created quite the leverage spot for Tony Finau, who might end up being the lowest owned player above $9,000 this week. Finau has posted two top-14s in his stops to the event since 2020.

Other Consideration – Scottie Scheffler does grade third in my model. I have some concerns, but this is the kind of course we would anticipate him finding success.

$9,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($9,700) – The price and ownership might be problematic to some, but I wouldn’t let it affect my decision-making. Gooch is priced where he should be for the week, and I think we need to start accepting that this could be who he is as a player moving forward.

Other Targets: Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris (GPPs) – Sungjae Im is in play for all game types

$8,000 Range

Justin Rose ($8,600) – Justin Rose ranks inside the top-10 on easy courses and also has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. I have an outright ticket on him at 55/1.

Si Woo Kim ($8,300) – Pete Dye specialist? Check. Good on short courses? Check. I haven’t given up hope that Si Woo Kim turns everything around very shortly.

Carlos Ortiz ($8,200) – @StixPicks has ‘Hammer Kid’ locked Carlos Ortiz to come top-40. I have never seen him lose on a selection like that, which is good enough for me to roll with Ortiz in all game types this week.

Other Thoughts: Rickie Fowler ($8,500), Alex Noren ($8,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,100) are all in play for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Jason Day ($7,300) – Perhaps my favorite play above $7,000 on DraftKings this week is Jason Day. The problem with me saying this is that I have cried wolf for three straight years that every tournament was the Day show, even when he wasn’t in the field. Hence, why it might lose some of its luster after a while, but this is legitimately one of the first times that it isn’t just an act on my part. It kind of goes with what I have been saying about the model mimicking DraftKings pricing to a T, and then you get this massive deviation here with Day, who ranks 9th for me on my model. The Aussie is the number one golfer on short courses since 2018 – a time frame that does include the bad version of himself. I am legitimately encouraged by his potential this time around.

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,700), Taylor Moore ($7,300)

$6,000 Range

J.T. Poston ($6,400) – Three top-37s to go along with two missed cuts since 2017. Part of the reason for his success is the par-five scoring. He ranks inside the top-30 in this field

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Davis RIley $6,800, Dylan Frittelli $6,800

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda

When we look at Waialae Country Club, the property was designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor but did undergo an enhancement by Tom Doak in 2016. The purpose of the improvement was to try and bring back the old-school feel of the property, and I think Doak did that job perfectly. The venue is straightforward in its flat, boring setup, but there are doglegs where golfers will need to work the ball in both directions.

There are 12 par-fours in general. Ten of those stretch between 400-500 yards. The condensed nature from those holes produces 12.8% more second shots from 125-200 yards than average. I noticed a heavy correlation between the PGA Tour’s definition of ball striking and positive results. That combination looks at a mixture of accuracy and distance and then blends in GIR % to derive a total. Most of it is cumulative in how their website looks into the data, but I always make mine slightly more weighted into particular areas that I find relevant over the PGA’s basic construction.

Before we get into the statistical breakdown that I used, the last two things worth noting would be that the wind is the one real defense of the property. We have seen a three-shot difference in production when gusts pick up, and the second area that I found interesting is putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than a typical stop.

• Ball-Striking (25%) – I took an even split of distance and accuracy. I realize accuracy is more pertinent to finding success at Waialae, but golfers can easily club down off the tee. That is what Justin Thomas and Patton Kizzire did during the years they won the title, and it was another scenario where I noticed pushing numbers too far towards accuracy seemed to do a disservice to the model. Maybe you could look at a stat like fairways gained and increase the weight that way, but I still don’t love it because there are so many courses some of your bombers nosedive their totals throughout the year. I then took the average of that total driving number and weighed it in with GIR percentage in a 65/35 split towards GIR.
• Pertinent Proximity Ranges (10%) – Sixty-seven percent of irons come between 125-200 yards. I am marginally lower on approach play this week than most in the industry, but there are roundabout ways to get unique. I think GIR % is one. Breaking it down into this specific distance is another. And the reason we receive 67% of irons from this relatively basic zone is because of what I mentioned earlier of there being 10 par-fours between 400-500 yards. There are a lot of landing areas that will be similar for all players in the field
• Weighted Par-Four (17.5%) – It is a pretty basic split there of 34% overall par-four average and then 33% each on 400-450 and 450-500. 
• Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
• Mixture of Strokes Gained Total on Bermuda + Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda (20%) – That is my way of looking into Bermuda as a whole and gradually inserting putting into the mix. Everyone knows that I don’t love putting numbers, but we can’t ignore it here. Putting has been 4.3% more impactful to the dispersion of scores than an average stop. Bermuda putting is one of the ways to make it more relevant to Waialae. 
• Birdie or Better Percentage (10%) – That is an extension of scoring to go along with how golfers perform at easy courses that are shorter. 

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Webb Simpson ($10,500) – We are going to have to be cognizant of collective ownership amongst our six golfers. It is going to be nearly impossible to bypass the chalk in general, so it will be a lineup-by-lineup decision for me when I make builds. Webb Simpson is the number overall player in my model. Unfortunately, he is also number one in ownership. You will have to make a decision when it comes to how much exposure you want, but nobody produces yearly at the same tracks in the fashion of Webb.

Sungjae Im ($10.300) – The ownership is where it should be for the week. The price tag is fair. Those aren’t exactly ringing endorsements for a golfer that is going to far exceed his projection, but I do think he is the second-best route on this board. Im’s irons have turned around after a cold stretch in the middle of 2021, and we have seen him average 2.25 over his last four starts with that approach game.

Other Consideration – Cameron Smith ($11,200) – Either Cameron Smith or Hideki Matsuyama will be your best leverage route to consider. I don’t love Hideki’s upside because of his inability to make putts at a birdie fest, but we know Smith is a winner.

$9,000 Range

Kevin Na ($9,900) – Joel and I mentioned this about Kevin Na on our show, but it bears repeating. While Kevin Na is technically overpriced as one of the big boys in this field at $9,900, the leverage he provides at roughly 10 percent more than makes up for the price tag. You want players you like to be higher priced because it creates more playability when others are down on them.

Corey Conners ($9,600) – Corey Conners should have likely been in the $10,000 zone. I wish he would have been for all the reasons I just mentioned about Kevin Na, but there is a ton to love about the Canadian. Conners ranks first in my model for ball-striking and has gained nearly twice as many strokes on these greens versus any other surface in the world. If the putter remains hot at the track, the sky is the limit.

Other Targets: Abraham Ancer (GPPs)

$8,000 Range

Billy Horschel ($8,700) – Billy Horschel isn’t going to be for everyone, and I am okay with that. The Florida product ranks 15th at easy courses under 7,200 yards and ninth in my mixture of Bermuda scoring. Sub-10 percent is a great number.

Matt Jones ($8,400) – I like Matt Jones to keep the train rolling in Hawaii. Let’s see where the ownership comes in for the week, but if he can hover outside of the top-15 projection totals on the board, the safety Jones brings allows us to remove some of the other qualities we would like to see in his statistical makeup.

Charles Howell III ($8,000) – Charles Howell IIII looks to be one of the better cash-game values on the board at $8,000. I am willing to give him a look in GPPs if the ownership remains sub-15 percent, and his course history has been magnificent. He hasn’t missed a cut during his career in 19 tries. He has provided 15 top-30s, with nine of those landing inside the top eight.

Other Thoughts: Kevin Kisner is playable at $8,900

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,700) – I have Si Woo Kim inside the top-10 in outright win equity. He places ninth at easy courses under 7,200 yards. There is always going to be combustibility that he falters, but he does rank inside of the top-60 in every category I ran. We know that when he gets into contention that he can win, and 6-7 percent is way too low for his popularity on DraftKings. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the first page of the leaderboard when all is said and done.

Additional Thoughts: I am going to mix-and-match options, but my next two favorite targets would be Keegan Bradley ($7,400) and Stewart Cink ($7,200)

$6,000 Range

Nick Hardy ($6,600) – Fourteenth here last year. A great iron player that hits a ton of greens in regulation. He will need to keep the ball in the fairway, but my numbers love him.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Max McGreevy $6,900, Michael Thompson $6,900, Harry Higgs $6,900, Chan Kim $6,300, Andrew Novak $6,300

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