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NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 2/23

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 2/23. A solid 2-1 night including our +155 dog Calgary Flames dominating the North Division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs 3-0. We have 6 games on the slate today let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today:

To interact with the dashboard click here.

The biggest edges leveraging the dashboard are the Oilers ML (-130) against the Canucks, Canadians -1.5 (+116) against the Senators, and Devils ML (-127) against the Sabres.

Keep an eye out for the Starting Goalies here.

My Picks:

Devils ML -127: The Devils are finally fully healthy and taking on a Sabres team that actually defeated them 3-2 on Saturday, their only win in the last 6 games. Blackwood is starting for the Devils which gives them the goaltending edge and I think they get some revenge tonight. Let’s just hope most of this game is played at Even Strength as the Devils sport the worst Penalty Kill and a bottom 10 Power Play in the league.

Blackhawks ML +115: The Blackhawks have been a surprise this season led by Patrick Kane and Alex Debrincat while getting stellar goaltending from rookie Kevin Lankinen, who is confirmed as the starter. This line should be closer to even as the Blue Jackets have underperformed this year. The Blackhawks have an edge in goaltending and special teams which is why we are taking the underdog here.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr

Interested in the rave about NBA Top Shot? Check out the article here that breaks it all down for you!

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NHL Betting Picks Monday 2/22

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 2/22. An easy 1-0 night after the Bruins took care of business against the Flyers in Lake Tahoe by a score of 7-3 including a David Pastrnak hat trick. You knew he was going to have a great game when you saw this picture:

Image

We have 8 games on the slate tonight, lets take a look at the profitability and over win percentage on the season for the teams playing tonight.

To interact with the dashboard click this link.

The biggest edges based on the dashboard are the Puck Line for the Islanders (-1.5, +155) against the Sabres, the Money Line for the Maple Leafs (-182) against the Flames, the Money Line for the Panthers (-117) against the Stars, and the Over in the Kings/Blues game (5.5, -109).

Keep an eye out for the Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks:

Lightning ML -122: Tampa is coming off a 4-0 loss to the Hurricanes. Not going to overthink this one too much, they are the better team and should bounce back tonight against Carolina.

Kings/Blues Over 5.5 -109: Leveraging the dashboard above, I really like this play especially if Jonathan Quick is in goal for the Kings. The Kings give up a lot of High Danger Chances per Game and Quick has been below average in goal. Both teams average around 6 total goals per game and both teams hit their over > 60% of the time.

Flames ML +155: The Leafs have 3 injuries (Hyman, Muzzin, and Thornton) and the line is probably going to move soon. If you can get value on the Flames around +150 you should take it. Muzzin and Hyman are important pieces to this Leafs offense and should be priced around +125/+130 with these injuries so this is a pure value play.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr

Check out all of WinDailySport’s Sports Betting articles here.

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Welcome to the NHL DFS Man Advantage for Monday night February 22nd and we have a big 8 game slate on tap!

After a strange weekend where we saw two outdoor games, one that had an 8 hour 5 on 3. Then the other game had 3 different start times leading to what I consider a failure on the NHL’s part with these Lake Tahoe games, we are back to 8 INDOOR game tonight. There is only one game currently showing a 6.5 O/U and that is Calgary @ Toronto, but there were two games that opened at 6.5 but have moved down. Both the Dallas @ Florida and Tampa Bay @ Carolina have moved from 6.5 to 5.5. What all that means is we are going to want to focus on that game first for our stacks, especially on the Toronto side.

NHL DFS: Goaltenders

Looking at the goalies on both sites for Monday and the first thing I notice is that FanDuel has no respect for Jordan Binnigton ($7,400). Binnigton is $1,100 more on DraftKings which makes him my number one play on FanDuel and a complete fade of the St. Louis goalie on DK. Switching to DraftKings now, both Chris Driedger ($7,700) and Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,800) seem underpriced to me. I know both have tough matchups with Dallas for Florida, and Carolina for Tampa Bay. These were the two games I mentioned in the open that saw the lines move from 6.5 to 5.5, I am not sure why, but when a line moves in that direction Vegas is usually right. If Sergei Bobrovsky ($7,900) starts for Florida, then I would pass and focus on Vasilevskiy.

There is a goalie I am interested in and the price is right on both sites in my opinion. Kappo Kahkonen ($8,000/$7,700) is in a prime matchup in San Jose against a Sharks team that ranks 17th in goals for and has only scored more than 2 goals in a game four times in their last nine games.

Other options: Semyon Varlamov ($8,400/$8,100), John Gibson ($7,300/$6,700)

NHL DFS: Slate Overview

Like I mentioned in the open, Calgary and the Toronto Maple Leafs is the projected highest-scoring game on the slate. Auston Matthews ($9,000/$9,200) is the hottest thing going in the NHL and his price is reflecting that. Over his last five games, Matthews has 7 goals and 6 assists, with 4 goals and 2 assists coming on the power play. Calgary has one of the league’s worst penalty kills which makes this matchup even more appealing. Calgary ranks in the bottom third of the league in penalty kill %, allows the 7th most power-play goals, and has taken the 6th most penalties this season. Because of all of this, a Toronto Power Play stack is definitely my number one place to start when building lineups and Matthews has to be included in that.

On Calgary’s side of the ice, there isn’t much to like right now. Their top guys are not producing right now, but maybe this matchup with Toronto will break their slump. In their last 5 games, the Flames have been held to 1 goal in four of their last five. Elias Lindholm ($5,700/$6,100) averages the second-most minutes on ice for the Flames, which is rare for a forward. Because of that, I think that would be where I would start in a Flames stack. Calgary has shaken their lines up because of their anemic goal scoring of late, so Lindholm now centers line 2 with Johnny Gaudreau ($5,500/$7600) on his wing. Now, with how terrible his price is on FD, Gaudreau is only viable on DK. Either Andrew Mangiapane ($4,400/$4,700) or Matthew Tkachuk ($6,200/$5,400) are much better options to pair with Lindholm on FD as a power-play stack.

NHL DFS: Value Plays

With the high prices from Toronto, and the mid prices of Calgary we will need some value plays to make that fit. I mentioned in discord Sunday night that Anaheim called up Trevor Zegras ($2,500/$3,000) and he should be making his highly anticipated debut on Monday. Zegras dominated the World Juniors this year with 18 points in 7 games and then continued in the AHL this season with 9 points in just 8 games. In Sunday’s practice Zegras skated on the second line with Sam Steel ($3,200 both sites) and Jacob Silfverberg ($4,000/$5,100). It is anticipated he sees power play time as well.

Another value line I like on Monday night is Minnesota second line. Mats Zuccarello ($2,900/$3,900) has returned and in his first three games he has 1 goal and 2 assists. Zuccarello is playing with Karill Kaprizov ($4,400/$4,600) and Marcus Johansson ($2,800/$4,100). We will need to wait for an announcement about Johansson who did not play Saturday.

NHL DFS: Defensemen Rankings

Top Defensemen

  1. Shea Theodore (VGK)
  2. Victor Hedman (TB)
  3. Morgan Rielly (TOR)
  4. Drew Doughty (LA)
  5. Brent Burns (SJ)
  6. Dougie Hamilton (CAR)
  7. Alex Pietrangelo (VGK)
  8. Torey Krug (STL)
  9. Aaron Ekblad (FLA)
  10. John Klingberg (DAL)

Top Value Defensemen:

  1. Rasmus Andersson (CGY)
  2. Bowen Byram (COL)
  3. Colin Miller (BUF)
  4. Scott Mayfield (NYI)
  5. Josh Mahura (ANH)
  6. Gustav Forsling (FLA)
  7. Mikey Anderson (LA)
  8. Keith Yandle (FLA)
  9. Jonas Brodin (MIN)
  10. Brett Pesce (CAR)

Thanks for reading this article on the NHL DFS Man Advantage for Monday, February 15th, 2021. Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports and make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more money-making content.

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NHL Betting Picks Sunday 2/21

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Sunday 2/21. There are 4 games scheduled for today, including the second Lake Tahoe game between the Bruins and the Flyers. A couple ice issues yesterday had the 3:00 game play the first period, then postpone the remainder of the game to Midnight ET. That caused the NHL to switch the start time to today’s game to 7:30, hopefully there won’t be any ice issues here.

Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for teams playing today.

To interact with this dashboard click here.

The biggest discrepancies in the matchups today based on the plot are the Flyers Puck Line (+1.5, -177), Jets ML (-108), and Canadiens ML (-215).

This doesn’t account for the Flyers having 6 players out for COVID-related issues. The Canadiens also scare me as they are 1-1-0 against the Senators with their only win being by 1 goal, and they’re coming off a loss last night to the Maple Leafs. The Jets might have a little value especially with Hellebuyck confirmed as the starter today.

Keep an eye out for the rest of the Starting Goalies today.

My Pick:

Bruins in Regulation -110: The Bruins are by far the better team, considering the Flyers have 6 starters in COVID protocol. Trying to squeeze some value here as the ML at -180 has no value. The Bruins should handle their business in the outdoor game and get 2 points in regulation from Philly.

Follow me on Twitter @KeithKavJr.

Interested in DFS? Check out the Sunday 2/21 NHL Hot Shot.

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NHL Betting Picks Saturday 2/20

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Saturday 2/20. We have a fantastic 12 game slate today, including the outdoor game in Lake Tahoe between Vegas and Colorado, I mean look at that view (via NBC Sports):

Image result for nhl lake tahoe

An easy 1-0 record last night for The Model with the Panthers handling their business in regulation against the Red Wings with a monster 4 goal first period in their 7-2 win. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages on the season:

Feel free to go click the Tableau Public Link to interact with the dashboard.

As we’ve mentioned before it is very important to monitor Starting Goalies to ensure you have optimal value in your picks.

Betting Nuggets/Notes

  • Teams who are evenly matched and lost the first game of a back-to-back are winning the second game around 75% of the time. Islanders, Predators, Ducks, and Flames all qualify for that today.
  • The Maple Leafs have played 3 games against the Senators since the Canadiens played last Saturday against the Maple Leafs, who meet tonight.

My Picks:

Devils ML -125: The Devils are coming off a huge win on Thursday against the first place Bruins. The Sabres have played awful since returning from their COVID break going 0-3-0 scoring a combined 2 goals. Shocked the line is so low here.

Rangers/Capitals u6.5 -125: As mentioned on Thursday, the Capitals have been scoring a goal above expected, aka getting some puck luck, and hit their under on Thursday winning 3-1. The Rangers are in the bottom 5 in Total Goals (For and Against)/game at 4.91. That 6.5 number is too high and we are taking it here.

Islanders ML +106: Out of the 4 teams in the above betting nugget, I feel the strongest about an Islanders bounce back tonight. Losing 4-1 to the Penguins on Thursday the game was actually a lot closer leveraging advanced stats. If the Isles start Varlamov that’s an added bonus and at + money there is some value on the Islanders here.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr

If you’re interested in DFS take a look at today’s Between The Benches!

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We’re back with another Saturday Night Win Daily NHL Article! We have a nice medium-sized slate with a lot of great options! So, get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 2/20 NHL slate, we have an 8-game slate that begins at 7 pm ET! Let’s get into it!

Keep in mind!!! FanDuel has updated their NHL tournaments and they now include two UTIL spots which have replaced two winger spots. DraftKings has stayed the same but don’t forget last season they revamped the scoring and added stats bonuses, so if you’re new to NHL or haven’t played in a while, check out our live stream on the WinDaily YouTube by clicking here and read through the rules on the site of your choice!

2/20 NHL Stack Report

  1. Toronto Maple Leafs 1 
    Thornton – Matthews – Marner (FanDuel: $21,600 | DraftKings: $21,300)
    – This line didn’t just come through last game, they single-handedly
    broke the slate with 30-49-40 points respectively. It makes a lot of sense to strike while the iron is hot here with the Leafs. They’ve already had some strong showings against Montreal this season and this line has just been clicking like crazy. They will be one of the chalkier lines tonight but in my opinion, it’s for good reason. I know it’s been a lot of Toronto recommendations, but this line just keeps clicking and it’s hard to come off them. I could justify a move off of them when having multiple entries but you will want to have some ownership.
    Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Morgan Rielly (Jake Muzzin for Salary Saver)(FD: $5,300 | DK: $6,500)
  2. Arizona Coyotes 1 
    Garland – Schmaltz – Keller (FanDuel: $16,500 | DraftKings: $17,500)
    – This is more of a FanDuel recommendation since their pricing is just off there but there is value with this line on both sites. Here we have a consistent top line with some of their teams’ top performers and two of the guys don’t even crack 6K. Especially against a LAK side who has been very unimpressive, to say the least. Los Angeles is allowing 3 goals a game and although they have found a steadier option between the pipes in Cal Peterson, this line’s value is just hard to ignore.
    Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Jakob Chychurn (Oliver Ekman-Larsson works too) (FD: $4,400 | DK: $6,000)

    Honorable Mention(s): Edmonton Oilers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 1

2/20 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best

  1. Jordan Binnington (FD: $7,600 | DK: $8,500)FD Preferred
  2. Andrei Vasilveskiy (FD: $8,700 | DK: $7,800) — DK Preferred
    Honorable Mention(s): Frederik Andersen, Darcy Kuemper, Kaapo Kahkonen, Jacob Markstrom

Worst

  1. Devan Dubnyk (FD: $6,900 | DK: $6,600)
    Dishonorable Mention(s): Mikko Koskinen, Juuse Saros

2/20 NHL Wild Card Targets

Mike Hoffman (FD: $5,700 | DK: $5,500) 
– I’m not sure why but whenever Hoffman hits, he hits big. He is my favourite one-off play on the entire slate especially considering how little faith I have in Devan Dubnyk. Even at his current price, Hoffman is still a solid value option with his ceiling as high as it is.

Honorable Mention(s): Josh Anderson, Bryan Rust, Jesse Puljajarvi

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre Auston Matthews

Winger Mike Hoffman and/or Joe Thornton

Defence Tyson Barrie

Goalie Jordan Binnington (plenty of good options in goal tonight)

2/20 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Stamkos – Matthews – McDavid Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention: CAR-TBL Goalies in the Super Saver.

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NHL Betting Picks Friday 2/19

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Friday 2/19. Not the best night going 2-3 with a tough shootout loss for Arizona against Los Angeles. Made a late add with the Senators/Maple Leafs o6.5 as news broke right before the game that Senators top defenseman Thomas Chabot was out with an injury. That in combination with both teams playing their backup goalies led to an easy cash there with a 7-3 tilt.

We have 4 games on deck tonight lets take a look at the updated profits and over win percentage for the season.

To interact with the dashboard click this link.

Here are The Model’s Win Probabilities and Edges based on DraftKing’s Moneylines as of Noon ET:

Lines are priced pretty well today with slight edges on Oilers and Red Wings. Keep an eye on the Starting Goalies for the games as they get updated throughout the day and drive value on the betting lines.

Betting Nuggets

  • The Oilers could be an interesting play with the Flames going with David Rittich in net tonight. A slight edge on the betting line could put this in range
  • Same with the Canucks as the Jets are starting Brossoit in net, only his 4th game of the season
  • The Blackhawks and Hurricanes have played each other twice this season, hitting the over in both games

My Pick:

Panthers in Regulation -110: The Red Wings are one of the worst teams in the league and they are 1-2-1 against the Panthers this season. The Panthers lead the league in Point Percentage, have the goaltending edge with Driedger, and are coming off of a big OT win against Carolina. They should take care of business tonight.

Feel free to follow on Twitter @KeithKavJr

Check out yesterday’s Mikey 2 Times Show with legend Mike North and Michael Rasile.

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NHL Betting Picks Thursday 2/18

Hey everyone! My name is Keith and I’ve been betting on hockey the last few years. Finally getting the opportunity to post my picks here and describe some rationale behind my decisions. I visualize the Moneyline and Puckline profits and Over/Under Win% throughout the year, ensemble a few public win probability models to seek edges, and incorporate advanced stats and special teams (Power Play and Penalty Kill) advantages to make my picks. Starting goalies is also a huge factor in finding value with betting lines, but unfortunately, those sometimes don’t get announced until 20 minutes before the game. Let’s get started with my NHL Betting Picks Thursday 2/18!

Here is my visualization tracking profits (assumption 1 unit bet on each) and Over Win% through 2/18:

Tableau Public Link

For today’s games lets look at the Win Probabilities and compare them with the DraftKings ML (as of 10:30am):

A couple of slight edges on underdogs and a big edge on the Senators, who have looked competent against the Maple Leafs in their last two games. Can’t pull the trigger on that though as they are due for a regression.

My picks

Coyotes ML -154: The Coyotes just played 7 (!!) straight games against the Blues going 4-3. Going against much lesser competition in LA this is a reasonable price to play Arizona here.

Rangers +1.5/Islanders +1.5 Parlay -107: The Rangers are one of the least profitable ML teams, but a top 5 profitable PL team. Going against a Flyers team with 6 starters on the COVID list and 3 guys making their NHL debut I like the Rangers to cover here. The Islanders are also a strong PL team and the Penguins have only 2 wins in regulation in 14 games, not to mention they are the least profitable PL team in the league.

Ducks ML +110: The Wild were coming off of an extended COVID pause on Tuesday with a few guys still out of the lineup and looked terrible against a bottom-5 team in the Kings. The Ducks aren’t much better but have elite goaltending in Gibson which we are riding on here.

Capitals/Sabres Under 6.5 -125: The Capitals are one of the luckiest teams at Even Strength scoring a whole goal above expected. The Sabres have scored 1 goal in their last 2 games, although against a stingy Islanders team. No one likes cheering for under but at 6.5 it was too appealing to pass up.

Follow along on twitter @KeithKavJr

Check out today’s NHL Hot Shot article for your DFS breakdown!

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We’re back with another Wednesday Night Win Daily NHL Article! Not a lot of games but given the games going tonight we can expect a lot of goals tonight! So, get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 2/17 NHL slate, we have a small 4-game slate that begins at 7 pm ET! Let’s get into it!

Keep in mind!!! FanDuel has updated their NHL tournaments and they now include two UTIL spots which have replaced two winger spots. DraftKings has stayed the same but don’t forget last season they revamped the scoring and added stats bonuses, so if you’re new to NHL or haven’t played in a while, check out our live stream on the WinDaily YouTube by clicking here and read through the rules on the site of your choice!

2/17 NHL Stack Report

  1. Toronto Maple Leafs 1 
    Thornton – Matthews – Marner (FanDuel: $21,000 | DraftKings: $20,500)
    Despite the Leafs epic collapse last game, this line came through in a big way with six points amongst themselves. I’m going right back to the well with them tonight as they still have the highest implied goal total on the slate at 4.3 goals and are facing one of the worst goalies in the league, statistically speaking. Let’s not forget, on paper this game is a route and what happened last game shouldn’t affect how we approach this game tonight. If anything hopefully their late-game collapse will lower their ownership a bit. (Unlikely but a man can dream)
    Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Morgan Rielly (Jake Muzzin for Salary Saver)(FD: $5,000 | DK: $5,600)
  2. Winnipeg Jets 2 
    Connor – Stastny – Ehlers (FanDuel: $18,600 | DraftKings: $16,900)
    – This line has been interesting, to say the least. Each player has put up three points in their last three games and is projected to go up against an ageing Mike Smith who began showing some chinks in the amour last game as compared to his early performances, giving up four goals on 11 shots in his last game, which happened to be against the Jets. All three players have reasonable price tags based on their production (especially Kyle Connor who’s ceiling is through the roof) and they all see time on Winnipeg’s power play with Connor and Stastny on the top unit and Ehlers on the second unit.
    Ideal Defensive Partner: Neal Pionk (Josh Morrissey works as a salary saver) (FD: $4,900 | DK: $4,600)

    Honorable Mention(s): Edmonton Oilers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 1, Calgary Flames 1, Ottawa Senators 3 (GPP)

2/17 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best

  1. Jacob Markstrom (FD: $8,000 | DK: $8,100)
  2. Kevin Lankinen (FD: $7,500 | DK: $7,900)
    Honorable Mention(s): Frederik Andersen (I understand if you’re hesitant playing him after last game)

Worst

  1. Thomas Greiss (FD: $6,900 | DK: $7,300)
    Honorable Mention(s): Matt Murray, Mike Smith

2/17 NHL Wild Card Targets

Nicolas Beaudin (FD: $4,000 | DK: $3,400) 
– Interesting option here in Beaudin, the young defender has really made the most out of his opportunity which came out of the injury to Connor Murphy and now sees himself on a three game point streak and on the top power play unit with the likes of Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. Personally, I like him in a two man with either of Chicago’s two super stars mentioned above and he can provide serious value against one of the worst teams in the league in Detroit.

Honorable Mention(s): Evgenii Dadonov, Rasmus Anderssen

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre Auston Matthews

Winger Kyle Connor

Defence Thomas Chabot

Goalie Jacob Markstrom or Kevin Lankinen (if you need the salary)

2/17 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Marner – Matthews – McDavid Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention: Matthews to break the expected fantasy point total.

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Welcome to the NHL DFS Man Advantage for Monday night February 15th and we have a 9 game slate on tap!

Tonight is a rare big Monday slate, but even though it’s a big slate there is one team that will carry huge ownership. Toronto hosts Ottawa in what could be an absolute blow out game. Matt Murray ($6,900/$6,600) is listed as day to day for the Senators and if he misses another game Ottawa could be forced to use Marcus Hogberg ($6,900/$6,600) who has been terrible. Other than the Maple Leafs, Edmonton (vs WPG), Calgary (@VAN), NY Islander (@BUF), Dallas (vs NSH), and Chicago (@DET) also have goal projections over 3 for tonight.

NHL DFS: Goaltenders

Semyon Varlamov ($8,200) and the Islander are on the road against the Sabres tonight who haven’t played a hockey game in what seems like years (actually it’s been 15 days) so they may be a little rusty. Varly is coming off a big win (28 saves, 2 GA) over Buffalo on Saturday and has won 3 of his previous 4 starts allowing just 8 goals in those 4 games including a shutout of the Rangers. Buffalo was allowing 32 saves per game in their previous 5 games before their COVID break.

Obviously whoever starts for Toronto is an option, assuming that Frederick Andersen ($8,500/8,400) is the one who gets the start he will be a good high priced play if you can fit him. I don’t personally like playing goalies priced this high, but for cash games or if you have the salary he is a good pick.

If Jacob Markstrom ($7,900/$8,100) starts tonight against Vancouver he is probably my favorite play on the slate. Markstrom made 43 saves in a 3-1 loss to this team Saturday night. Vancouver leads the NHL in shots on goal (565) by a large margin but has one of the worst shot % in the league which should bode well for Markstrom. If David Rittich ($7,700/$8,100) gets the start instead he is a decent option on DK at his price, but way too expensive for my liking on FD.

Well, if I am writing an article and Anaheim is on the slate then you know John Gibson ($7,600/$6,800) will get a mention. Gibson and the Ducks are in San Jose tonight against the leagues 31st ranked offense. Gibson is an absolute lock for me at this price on FD (I might actually play on FD tonight just so I can play him there) and still a great option for $7.6K on DK. Anaheim ranks 10th in the league in shots allowed which means Gibby should see plenty of rubber tonight.

Other Options: Lankinen/Subban ($7,800/$7,400), Vasilevskiy ($8,300/$8,600), Khudobin ($8,100/$7,900)

NHL DFS: Slate Overview

Toronto Maple Leafs

As I mentioned on the open, Toronto is the team to stack tonight and their top line of Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner/Joe Thornton will probably garner the highest ownership on the slate. This line is the number one stack on the slate for obvious reasons, and I definitely want exposure to the Leafs but I want to find a way to be different. Some people may not realize Thornton is back tonight which should lower his ownership, but I would rather not play him personally, so I will look to the Leafs Dmen and secondary scoring.

Zach Hyman ($5,800/$5,000) is now on the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander but is not on PP2 with them. Both Ilya Mikheyev($3,700/$3,600) and Jason Spezza ($3,700/$3,500) are. In conclusion, if you are playing cash load up on the Leafs top line, but if you are in large field GPP’s look to their secondary players to get exposure to the potential highest scoring team on the slate but at lower ownership.

Defensemen in play: Morgan Rielly (PP1), TJ Brodie (PP2), Justin Holl, Jake Muzzin

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim is a team that rarely ever gets used in NHL DFS, but tonight you should consider using the Ducks. San Jose has the third-worst team save % in the NHL and is in the middle of the pack in allowing shots on goal. Anaheim has scored 14 goals in their last 5 games, which is a huge increase from the 8 they scored in the 5 before that.

The Ducks 2nd line is the one I am interested in tonight with Max Comtois/Isac Lundestrom/Rickard Rakell. They are a cheap line stack that has been producing for their price. In their last five games, this combo has scored 5 goals, 4 assists, and taken 32 shots on goal. If you are playing two guys from this line I would recommend Comtois and Rakell with one of the PP dmen. Kevin Shattenkirk ($4,200/$3,900) is on the top PP unit that Rakell is on and Comtois and Lundestrom are with Cam Fowler ($3,300/$4,600) on PP2. If you are playing on FD, I would use ShattDueces and ignore Fowler’s horrendously high price.

Other Ducks to Consider: Troy Terry (PP2), Ryan Getzlaf (PP1)

Other Top Line Stacks:

  • Edmonton L1
  • Chicago L1 – VERY Expensive on DK, will probably be overlooked
  • Winnipeg L1
  • Tampa Bay L1
  • Columbus L1 – Patrik Laine is “cheap” on DK
  • Carolina L2
  • Dallas L1

Value Line Stacks:

  • Detroit L2
  • Florida L2
  • Calgary L2
  • Tampa Bay L2 – Formerly Tampa L3 we’ve been using
  • Vancouver L1
  • Ottawa L2
  • Chicago L2
  • NY Islanders L2

NHL DFS: Defensemen Rankings

Top Defensemen

  1. Victor Hedman (TB)
  2. Roman Josi (NSH)
  3. Darnell Nurse (EDM)
  4. Dougie Hamilton (CAR) – FD ONLY
  5. Seth Jones (CLS)
  6. Ryan Ellie (NSH)
  7. Jake Muzzin (TB)
  8. Tyson Barrie (EDM)
  9. Neal Pionk (WPG)
  10. Aaron Ekblad (FLA)

Top Value Defensemen

  1. Scott Mayfield (NYI)
  2. Jamie Oleksiak (DAL)
  3. Brett Pesce (CAR)
  4. Evan Bouchard (EDM) – PP2
  5. Nicolas Beaudin (CHI) – PP1
  6. David Savard (CLS)
  7. MacKenzie Weegar (FLA) – Plays with Ekblad on D pair 1
  8. Dante Fabbro (NSH) – PP2
  9. Nikita Zadorov (CHI)
  10. Dylan Demelo (WPG)

NHL DFS: Wrap Up

As I mentioned, Toronto is going to be where the ownership lands tonight but there are ways to get some Leafs in and be different. Both Edmonton and Chicago are also two teams that are good spots, Chicago over Edmonton in my opinion, as well as Tampa Bay. Anaheim has finally been scoring some goals of late and could be a small late-night hammer that could help you get a takedown if everything falls into place.

Thanks for reading this article on the NHL DFS Man Advantage for Monday, February 15th, 2021. Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports and make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more money-making content.

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