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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 5)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/5

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/5. The Model went 1-1-1 yesterday. The over in the Wings/Lightning game hit but surprisingly it was the Red Wings who carried that with a 5-1 win over the Lightning. The Devils hung around but ultimately lost 5-4, and then the Canes pushed with a 1-0 victory over the Stars. On to Monday.

We have 7 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Flyers Puck Line (+1.5, -175) over the Bruins
Oilers Money Line (+117) over the Canadiens
Canadiens Puck Line (-1.5, +185) over the Oilers
Jets Money Line (-200) and Puck Line (-1.5, +120) over the Senators
Wild Puck Line (+1.5, -177) over the Avalanche
Golden Knights Money Line (-140) and Puck Line (-1.5, +180) over the Blues
Maple Leafs Money Line (-157) over the Flames

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Golden Knights ML (-140): Vegas is coming off back-to-back losses against the Wild. Combined with their loss to LA last Wednesday and you’ve got a 3 game losing streak. However St. Louis is on a 6-game skid earning a single point out of 12 in that stretch. Both teams are going to come out strong tonight and should have the makings of a playoff atmosphere. Vegas is the better team though and with Husso likely in net for the Blues, we should feel comfortable riding them at this price.

Senators/Jets Over 6 (-110): These 2 teams enjoy scoring goals and don’t care too much for stopping them. They’ve hit at least 6 goals in 3 of 5 matchups this season. Ottawa averages 3.66 goals against/game and the Jets average 3.16 goals for/game. Ottawa is better on the road at hitting overs (53%) than overall (42%). Winnipeg allows the most High Danger Chances Against in the league, let’s hope Ottawa is able to convert a few tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 4)

Austin Harmon 4 years ago

written by Austin Harmon

NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/4

Happy Easter! Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/4. The Model had a 1-2 night however we were positive due to our huge dog Senators (+215) bullying the Habs in a 6-3 win. The Isles/Flyers played conservative and we missed that over by 0.5 goals, and the Rangers again needed OT against Buffalo this time losing in shootout. Negative by win percentage but positive by units, we will take it.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

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Dashboard Edges

Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, -134) and Money Line (-345) over the Red Wings
Capitals Money Line (-165) over the Devils
Panthers Puck Line (-1.5, +135) and Money Line (-190) over the Blue Jackets
Hurricanes Money Line (-165) over the Stars
Coyotes Money Line (-136) over the Ducks
Maple Leafs Money Line (-155) over the Flames

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Devils ML (+155): The Devils are definitely the worse team here, no doubt about it. However it is very hard to lose 8 straight games to 1 team. The Devils are 0-5-2 against Washington this year. The game on Friday the Devils played a very even game and had opportunities in OT to pull this out. This line provides a little value here on the Devs (Model ML is +148), so we are riding.

Hurricanes -1 (-107): The Stars squeaked out a 3-2 win last night against Carolina, however the Hurricanes dominated the game. They had 60% CF, 62% SCF, and 65% HDCF. For reference anything above 50% means they were better than their opponent. Petr Mrazek should be making his return today from injury and looked very good early in the season. We like the Hurricanes to bounce back today and get the win.

Lightning/Red Wings Over (5.5, -103): Late add here on the news that Lightning will be starting Chris Gibson. Who is Chris Gibson? I have no idea and that is why I am taking the over. This game also ended 2-1 yesterday so we are due for some goals. Get it quick before the line jumps as the goalie news just came out.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 3)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Saturday 4/3

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Saturday 4/3. The Model went 2-1, technically 2-2 if you count my extremely biased Devils ML play that I only took because I was at the game. I still don’t know how that Avs/Blues over didn’t hit, but at least we got Coyotes ML and our dog Sharks ML. Not a bad night.

We have 11 games on the NHL slate today starting with 2 games at 1:00. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Penguins Money Line (+100) over the Bruins
Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, -137) over the Red Wings
Canadiens Puck Line (-1.5, +108) over the Bruins
Hurricanes Money Line (-155) over the Stars
Panthers Money Line (-159) over the Blue Jackets
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +100) and Money Line (-250) over the Sabres
Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +143) over the Flyers
Islanders/Flyers Over (5.5, -120)
Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5, +102) over the Blues

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Free Picks

Flyers/Islanders Over 5.5 (-120): The Flyers are on a sharp downward trajectory and they are letting in goals at an alarmingly high rate over the last month (75 goals, 4.4 goals/game). The Islanders who don’t usually score goals have actually been generating a high number of chances and goals. The Flyers hit their overs at 82% on the road (highest in the league) and the Islanders hit their overs at 71% at home, so let’s get some goals here.

Rangers -1.5 (+100): We are going to give this another try today. The Rangers won in OT on Thursday but dominated the game. They are facing the better goaltender for Buffalo in Ullmark. They led Buffalo in High Danger Chances (19-8), Scoring Chances (29-17) and Expected Goals (3.38-1.88). Getting this at even odds is great which is why we are taking it tonight.

Premium Pick

Senators ML (+215): I hate doing this but the edge is there. The Senators have given the Canadiens all sorts of trouble this season winning 3 of their 5 meetings. Do they have any business winning this game? Nope. But The Model has their line priced +175 so there is a monster edge on the +215 line which forces my hand here.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 2)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Friday 4/2

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Friday 4/2. The Model had an average night going 2-3. The Isles/Caps over hit in the first period, which was amazing. We also took the Panthers live after going down 1 and they pulled it off in OT. The Rangers had a chance to hit the empty net to hit the -1.5 and the Sabres defender dove in front to save it, that sucked. The Lightning also hit a post with 5 seconds left on the empty net to not cover the -1.5 And the Golden Knights/Wild had 3 in the first and an xG total of almost 9, yet only ended 3-2 and didn’t hit the over. Pain.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Capitals Money Line (-157) over the Devils
Jets Puck Line (+1.5, -210) over the Maple Leafs
Oilers Money Line (-140) over the Flames
Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5, +108) and Money Line (-225) over the Blues

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. If we get Johansson for the Avs the over at 5.5 is extremely enticing. It’s a risk to take it before that info is announced, but as soon as that is announced it will jump to 6 or 6.5.

My Picks

Avalanche/Blues Over 5.5 (-120): I’m doing it. They have a B2B and I can see them rolling with Johansson tonight. Even if they don’t, the Avs offense has been such a juggernaut lately that they can easily put up 4+ goals and I wouldn’t bat an eye. If we get Johansson in net for the Avs that should easily allow the Blues to carry their weight on this over. The Avs lead the league in GF, xGF, and have a dominate PP. The Blues give up over 3 goals per game and have a weak PK. Let’s ride with this over.

Coyotes ML (-124): The Coyotes have a good chance now of making the playoffs with the Blues recent slide. The fact that the Blues are playing the best team in the West and the Yotes are playing the worst team should incentivize them to come out strong. The only concern for me is the Yotes goaltending as Adin Hill got lit up against the Avs Wednesday. The Ducks aren’t good though and the Yotes need this W so we ride with them tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 1)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/1

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/1. An easy 1-0 day for The Model last night with Toronto easily beating Winnipeg 3-1. Both of the leans hit too with Colorado dummying Arizona 9-3 and the over hitting before the 1st period ended, and LA as a +190 dog beating Vegas 4-2. I got ratted from Tuesday or else I would’ve took those. Of course that happens. Whatever, on to today.

We have 9 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, -108) over the Blue Jackets
Rangers Money Line (-250) and Puck Line (-1.5, +110) over the Sabres
Panthers Money Line (-245) over the Red Wings
Canadiens Puck Line (-1.5, +132) over the Senators
Penguins Money Line (+107) over the Bruins
Hurricanes Money Line (-162) over the Blackhawks
Predators Money Line (+108) over the Stars
Wild Puck Line (+1.5, -200) over the Golden Knights

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Free Picks

Rangers -1.5 (+110): The Sabres are on cloud 9 after finally getting a win last night. The bad news is they face a red hot Rangers team tonight. The Rangers are +9.32u on the puck line on the road this season and the Sabres are -10.67u at home, a 19u difference. That alone makes me like it but throw in the fact the Sabres won last night, are probably not playing Ullmark because of a B2B, and the Rangers hot streak of late just makes me love it even more. This seems like a no-brainer.

Capitals/Islanders Over 5.5 (+105): The Capitals rank second in the NHL in total goals this season (6.2), while the Isles rank second-to-last (5.12). However the Islanders hit their over 68.75% of the time at home. The Caps have a lot of shooting talent leading the league in Goals Scored Above Expected. They’ve scored 3, 6, and 3 goals respectively in 3 matchups with the Islanders this season. The over has only hit in 1 of those matchups but I like getting the 5.5 number at plus money.

Premium Pick

Lightning -1.5 (-108): The Lightning lost against Columbus on Tuesday, but the numbers still suggest they should beat them by more than a goal. The good news is we have Vasilevskiy in net so that should improve the defensive side of things. The Lightning are +10.39u on the puck line at home this season and Columbus is -7.72u on the road. Tampa have yet to cover the puck line against Columbus this year which scares me a little bit, however I think they come out with some force tonight and get it done.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 31)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 3/31

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 3/31. The Model had a rough one last night. 0-3. We were prime for a regression due to my unreal winning percentage as of late. We can’t overreact to 1 bad night. We take a step back and re-evaluate and move on to tonight.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Flyers Money Line (-200) and Puck Line (-1.5, +123) over the Sabres
Jets Puck Line (+1.5, -220) over the Maple Leafs
Golden Knights Money Line (-225) over the Kings
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +160) over the Sharks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. There are a couple leans tonight such as the Coyotes/Avs over 5.5. Colorado is 7-1 in their last 8 and Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5, but these teams also have gone multiple games in a row against each other on the under so take it with caution. The Kings +190 also has some value as The Model has their number around +173, but I also find it hard to bet against Vegas. However I am just taking 1 game tonight.

My Picks

Leafs ML (-140): Toronto is coming off an OT loss to Edmonton and Winnipeg is coming off a 5-1 win against Calgary. Both these teams have been inconsistent of late and are fighting for that top spot in the North. The Model has the Leafs as a -155 favorite so we get a decent edge on them here. In their season matchups this season the Leafs have 17.38 xG to the Jets 9.95, but the Jets have outscored the Leafs 13-11. I see a bounce back for the Leafs and like this price we can get them at.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 30)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 3/30

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 3/30. The Model is on fire going 3-1 last night, including the late Oilers ML +130 add (announced on Twitter) when it was confirmed Hutchinson was in net for the Leafs. The Avs looked like a -440 favorite dominating the Ducks for an easy puck line cover in a 5-2 win. Only loser was the over 5.5 in Vegas/LA which hit 5 goals, LA just couldn’t pull their weight in a 4-1 loss.

We have 7 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Devils Puck Line (+1.5, -157) over the Bruins
Devils/Bruins Under 5.5 (-138)
Panthers Money Line (-240) over the Red Wings
Capitals Money Line (-110) over the Rangers
Rangers Puck Line (+1.5, -275) over the Capitals
Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, +100) and Money Line (-250) over the Blue Jackets
Oilers Money Line (+114) over the Canadiens
Predators Money Line (+105) over the Stars

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. Also wanted to quickly show my current NHL betting stats on the season via BetStamp (feel free to follow).

+35.8u
15.8% ROI

My Picks

Devils/Bruins Under 5.5 (-138): I hate grabbing this much juice on an under but the numbers are forcing my hand. All 5 matchups between these teams have been 5 goals or under. The Bruins have yet to score a 5v5 goal against NJ. The Devils are at 5.29 total goals/game and the Bruins are even lower at 4.82. The Devils are Bruins both hit their overs at less than 43% of the games. Boston is even lower at home at 28%. Should get Blackwood for NJ who has been playing unreal as of late. Hate unders but we ride tonight.

Lightning -1.5 (+100): Let’s ride with another puck line tonight, this time taking the Lightning. The Lightning are +8u on the puck line and the Blue Jackets are -9u for a 17u difference. The Lightning are even better at home (+11.3u). Huge edge. The Blue Jackets also looked awful against Detroit. I’m a little nervous Torts gets the boys fired up for Tampa tonight, but based on their recent run of play we have to ride the Lightning here. UPDATE: I took this before McElhinney was confirmed. The line is now at +125 and I don’t know if I still like it but we are already locked in.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 29)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Monday 3/29

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 3/29. The Model just had 1 play last night and it was a loser. Columbus is bad this year, losing back-to-back games against freaking Detroit. Might put Columbus on my blacklist for the season along with Montreal. Also probably should’ve took the Devils as a +150 dog against the Bruins. They are now 4-0-1 against Boston somehow. Whatever we move on to today.

We have 7 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Islanders Puck Line (+1.5, -286) over the Penguins
Flyers Puck Line (-1.5, +125) and Money Line (-190) over the Sabres
Avalanche Money Line (-385) over the Ducks
Jets Puck Line (+1.5, -265) and Money Line (+104) over the Flames
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +155) and Money Line (-162) over the Sharks
Golden Knights/Kings Over 5.5 (-110)

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. That Avalanche line is outrageous, might be the biggest favorite this season.

My Picks

Free Picks

Avalanche -1.5 (-135): I see a +315 dog with the Ducks and think instantly I have to take it because of how high it is. Surely there is value on the Ducks. Then I ran The Model which suggests the line should be -451/+451. Shit. Considering we are getting 250 points of value between ML and PL, I am riding the Avs puck line tonight.

Jets ML (+104): I keep going back and forth on this matchup. I took Jets on Friday when they won 3-2. Then I followed up by taking Calgary on Saturday when they won 4-2. It’s only right I go back to the Jets tonight with plus money on a game that is truly a 50/50 coin flip.

Premium Pick

Golden Knights/Kings Over 5.5 (-110): Both of these teams are hitting just over 50% of their overs. Taking it a step further Vegas’ over win percentage at home is 68.75% and LA is 55.56% on the road. Both teams are averaging 5.5 total goals so this line is right on. Following a big win on Saturday I think Vegas rides that momentum to put some goals in the back of the net tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks Saturday (Mar. 25)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Saturday 3/25

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Saturday 3/25. The Model has a quiet 1-0 night as Winnipeg squeaked out a 3-2 win against Calgary. Getting them plus money was a steal as Calgary has been wildly inconsistent all season. And they play again today with their backup in net so you had to think the Jets were going to have the juice last night, which they did.

We have a monster 11 game NHL slate tonight including a couple 1:00 games. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +188) over the Flyers
Bruins Money Line (-375) over the Sabres
Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, +210) over the Hurricanes
Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +230) over the Penguins
Panthers Money Line (-104) over the Stars
Jets Money Line (+108) and Puck Line (+1.5, -250) over the Flames

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. We have the biggest line on the season with the Bruins -375 over the Sabres this afternoon. There’s some value on Buffalo +300, but there is just no way I touch a game like that.

My Picks

Free Picks

Flyers ML (+116): Am I crazy for taking the Flyers today? Probably. Their recent run of form is mind boggling to say the least. Carter Hart has been awful this season so it’s good that Elliot is in net today. 1:00 games tend to be wacky. It’s also Shesterkin’s first game back in a couple of weeks maybe he comes out rusty. The Flyers have too much talent to fold over and after getting pumped again by the Rangers on Thursday I have a feeling they come out pissed today. Or they’ll just get absolutely wrecked again, but at plus money I’ll feel less bad about it.

Bruins/Sabres Under 5.5 (-124): I lied I am touching this game but not on the team side. The Bruins and Sabres quite frankly do not generate much offense. Surprising to say that about the Bruins but not the Sabres. Both teams average under 5.5 total goals this season. The Bruins might be able to run circles around the Sabres today, but the Bruins stingy defense should be enough to get this to hit.

Premium Pick

Flames ML (-125): The Jets won the first leg of this coin flip matchup last night. The Flames played them tighter than I would have liked, which bodes well for today. The Jets also have Brossoit in net which is a positive for the Flames. The Flames are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak and I think they come out fired up tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 25)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/25

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/25. The Model bounced back in a big way on Tuesday going 3-0. The Devils won outright as dogs against the Flyers who are reeling BAD. The under in the Panthers/Blackhawks was a nice win with 5 goals being scored, and the late +205 money line add on the Coyotes was a battle but we got great value and a win there. Fade Jonas Johansson, he is deemed the worst goalie in the NHL at the moment. We took the night off yesterday but ready to get back into it tonight.

We have 11 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Capitals Money Line (-190) over the Devils
Hurricanes Money Line (-165) over the Blue Jackets
Islanders Puck Line (+1.5, -250) over the Bruins
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +205) over the Flyers
Penguins Puck Line (-1.5, -127) and Money Line (-315) over the Sabres
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +205) over the Blues
Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, +155) and Money Line (-175) over the Stars

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Free Picks

Blackhawks ML (+110): The Panthers have a big injury with their captain and best player Barkov already being ruled out. The Blackhawks also have a slight goaltending edge with Lankinen in against Bobrovsky. The Blackhawks should be a slight favorite so the fact that we are getting plus money on them gives us value.

Leafs -1.5 (-115): The numbers this season wouldn’t suggest that the Leafs could cover -1.5 against the North Division-worst Senators. The Leafs only have 3 wins in 6 games against the Senators, and in only 1 of those 3 wins did the Leafs cover the puck line. However, the Leafs have had ample rest in the past 2 weeks playing only 2 games since March 14. With a 3-way tie on points for the North Division lead, and the Leafs are fully healthy and having the better goaltender in net tonight, this screams Leafs blowout.

Premium Pick

Devils +1.5 (-148): The Devils have been much improved of late. They are actually +7u on the road this season on the money line, however they are lining up against a strong Capitals team tonight. Washington is -2u on the puck line at home and the Devils are +3u on the puck line on the road. This seems like a good opportunity for the Devils to cover the 1.5.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/25

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