Week 3 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Jaguars and Bills in the early game and the Commanders at the Bengals slated for the normal MNF time slot.
Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two of them have premier matchups while the other two will need to find ways to score against quality pass defenses. Let’s dig in and see which QB’s make the most sense for our builds.
JOSH ALLEN ($7800 DK) – The Bills star has had two distinctly different performances in 2024. In week 1, his team went down early to Arizona and Allen was forced to wear a cape and win the game for Buffalo. By doing so, he ended up as the highest scoring QB with 31.2 fantasy points. In Week 2, his running game and defense dominated, and Allen was not asked to do much. That resulted in a 9.8 fantasy point outing good for 28th in the league. Overall, he’s 3rd in points per game at 20.5 and can break the slate on any given week regardless of matchup.
There are some concerns with Allen’s receiving corps as Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid have combined for just 9 catches and 95 yards in two games. He needs more out of those two in order to break free in the passing totals. But that should improve this week as Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing DVOA and has allowed the 8th most fantasy points/game to WR’s. They could be without nickel corner Darnell Savage Jr. tonight as well as he’s labeled as questionable.
Allen’s hand looks to be a non-factor. But if it puts him in more running situations, that would be good news for fantasy owners. While a small sample size, the Jags have allowed 31 yards rushing and 1 TD to opposing QB’s. And those were to signal callers who typically don’t run in DeShaun Watson and Tua Tagovailoa. Passing or running, I expect a big game from Allen and reason to back him as the top QB choice on the board.
TREVOR LAWRENCE ($5700 DK) – I’m not prepared to attack a good Bills pass defense with a QB that has a 51% completion rate and is averaging just 191 yards/game passing this season. TLaw has not been able to find rhythm and some of that is due to a bad offensive line (7 sacks allowed in 2 games). According to PFF the Jags have the 9th worst pass blocking unit this season. Which isn’t great news as the Bills have the 5th best pass rush, racking up six sacks of their own.
JAYDEN DANIELS ($6000 DK) – There are only two QB’s with a better fantasy point per game average better than Josh Allen. And one of those is tonight’s starting QB for the Commanders, Jayden Daniels. What is eye opening with that statement is that he’s done it with 0 passing TD’s this season. That’s because most of his damage has been done on the ground as he’s gained 132 yards and scored 2 TD’s rushing in the first two games of this season. Projecting how teams fare against rushing QB’s can be difficult, but we do know the Bengals are bleeding yards to runners. In fact, the two QB’s they’ve faced have each gone over 29 yards rushing and are averaging 5.5 yards/carry.
The concern for me tonight is seeing how Daniels will get his yards in the air. Last week the Commanders settled for 7 field goals and were 0 for 6 in the redzone. In week 1 against Tampa, Daniels managed to rack up points in the 2nd half but the game was already out of hand. But I’m using the college approach here and put Daniels as my QB2 tonight based on his versatility and dedicated focus on running. He will get 10+ carries and over 50 yards which offsets the potential lack of passing TD’s.
JOE BURROW ($6300 DK) – This is a great price for Burrow as he takes on the 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. We anticipate plenty of big plays in the Bengals passing game. And while I’ll gladly have shares of Burrow, the lack of a running game in Cincy limits his potential to put up huge numbers. While Washington has struggled in coverage and pass rush, they’re also bad at stopping the run. So I do expect Cincy to focus on getting that part right against a team they can exploit. Burrow becomes by QB3 based on the potential game script at hand.
The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups and volume with our back usage.
TRAVIS ETIENNE JR ($7100 DK) – The Bills have allowed an average of 20.5 points to fantasy RB’s this season. That’s 7th most in the NFL. The big issue has been their inability to stop the RB’s in the passing game as opponent running backs have 15 catches in 2 games. Etienne is a threat as a receiver, catching 58 balls for 476 yards last season. Because I’m off Lawrence, I will be getting shares of the Jags running game tonight. It looks like Tank Bigsby may miss another game, leading to another game of 70% or more snaps for Etienne (72% in Week 2 w/o Bigsby).
JAMES COOK ($6800 DK) – Cook had a career game in Week 2, scoring three TD’s for Buffalo. But that came on just 12 touches as the Bills had a comfortable lead and were able to share duties. But he’s no doubt the premiere rusher in Buffalo and will be the focal point of their run game. The Jags fared well against the Dolphins in week 1, allowing just 3.2 yards/carry. That carried over to Week 2 as well, limiting the Browns to 4.3 yards/carry. For me, Cook is in play in my lineups with Daniels as QB. I’ll pair him up with Allen in a very small percentage of my lineups due to goal line carry concerns.
BRIAN ROBINSON ($5900 DK) – One of my favorite spots of the night at RB as Robinson is averaging 17.8 fantasy points over the first two games of the season. The Bengals allowed 170 yards rushing to the Patriots in Week 1 and 149 yards to the Chiefs in Week 2. Both primary RB’s went for 90+ rushing yards and at least 3 receptions. Because of the small slate, I feel comfortable pairing Robinson with Daniels when needed.
ZACK MOSS ($5600 DK) – The Bengals running game hasn’t been pretty. But the Commanders, although terrible at the pass, have allowed points to RB’s this season. So far, backs have gone for 190 yards rushing and 31 fantasy points in two games against the Commanders. At some point, the Bengals have to become two-dimensional and I think they’ll try to flex that tonight.
AUSTIN EKELER/CHASE BROWN/D’ERNEST JOHNSON – All backup RB’s with little value based on prices to the starting RB’s and low volume of snaps.
JA’MARR CHASE ($7500 DK) & TEE HIGGINS ($5900 DK) – Chase is clearly the #1 option available tonight and the only real receiver that can break the slate. He also gets the dream matchup of the Commanders pass D. The two #1 WR’s they faced, Mike Evans and Malik Nabers, have averaged 25.9 fantasy points. And the Commanders as a whole unit have allowed 6 receiving TD’s in two games. Higgins is in play too in case Washington looks to double Chase.
ANDREI IOSIVAS ($4300 DK) – Iosavis will revert back to a 3rd pass catcher with the return of Tee Higgins. But he did play 49 snaps against the Chiefs which was 14 higher than the next WR in Trenton Irwin. So he looks to be clearly the 3rd guy, though I expect Jermain Burton to assume that role down the road. As WR #3 against a bad pass D, he’s in play tonight.
KEON COLEMAN ($4800 DK) – The Jaguars have struggled with outside receivers. The Dolphins primary catchers went for 239 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1. And Jerry Jeudy, of all people, had 73 yards receiving on 5 catches in Week 2. After being shutout last week, I look for Coleman to get heavily involved and win his matchup against Ronald Darby (40th in PFF coverage ranking) or Motaric Brown (72nd in PFF coverage ranking).
KHALIL SHAKIR ($5500 DK) – The Jags look to be without their nickel DB tonight which should open up some big holes for Shakir. And the Jags rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in pass coverage. Shakir has been Allen’s favorite target so far garnering 8 catches in two games.
BRIAN THOMAS JR ($4900 DK) – Bills CB Christian Benford has been excellent in 2024 as he ranks as the 8th best DB according to PFF. He’ll likely see more of Christian Kirk thus opening up chances for rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. The former LSU standout has been Lawrence’s favorite target to date, bringing in his only passing touchdown last week against Cleveland. I lean to Thomas over Kirk based on matchups.
TERRY MCLAURIN($5700 DK) & NOAH BROWN ($3300 DK)– The McClaurin breakout game is coming. He has only 39 yards on the season but has been targeted 12 times in two games. He is the only real receiving threat for the Commanders and will draw a tough matchup against Cam Taylor-Britt. I still will play McClaurin but I like Noah Brown better in this spot. Brown found some rapport with Daniels catching three balls for 56 yards last week against NYG.
Of note, GABE DAVIS ($4200 DK) is in revenge mode tonight against his former team. He’s worth noting as they may try to force the ball into Davis at times.
With Engram out for the Jags, there is only one TE priced above $4K. This is a spot where you can find value. I won’t spend time writing this area up as the passing game angles are still relevant here. Brenton Strange is my favorite play as he wound up with 7 targets last week with Engram out.
The Bills are facing an offense with big issues on the O Line. We saw what their pass rush did to Tua last week and it could be similar tonight against the Jags. The biggest concern will be keeping Trevor Lawrence in the pocket. If so, I see 3+ sacks for the Bills. The Bengals are the other team to consider as we’re seeing rookie QB’s struggle adapting to the NFL game. Daniels wasn’t able to find the endzone in 6 redzone trips last week and is reluctant to put the ball in tight windows. The Bengals could give him different looks that opens up the potential for turnovers tonight.
Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns. I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Allen or Travis Etienne in the early game. I’ll look at Ja’Marr Chase and Jayden Daniels as my wo primary MVPs in the night game.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.
Best Rules for the slate (JAX at BUFF):
Best Rules for the slate (WASH at CIN):
Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.
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Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down his Favorite Props for Sunday Night Football on the Plus Money Prop Train!
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Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
Running Back
Atlanta gave up 186 rushing yards and a TD in Week 2 to the Philadelphia Eagles. About half of the yards the Falcons gave up were to Hurts and not one of the Eagle running backs. The Falcons have been the fifth-best team against running backs in fantasy, giving up 16.2 DK. With the injury to Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs don’t have a clear top guy at running back. All signs point to Carson Steele as the running back who will take over most of the touches at running back.
In his first two games, Steele has only seen 19 snaps but has had a carry on nine of those snaps (47.3%). Steele has only 27 yards from his nine carries, 3 yards per attempt. The other running back who will see carries for the Chiefs is Samaje Perine. Perine has not seen a carry in his 17 snaps but has caught two passes for 13 yards.
With how good Patrick Mahomes is, I am not making it a priority to have either KC running back in my lineup. The Chiefs can win this game without either guy having a breakout game. If I use one in bigger contests, I would prioritize Steele over Perine.
Tier 1: Carson Steele
Tier 2: Samaje Perine
Wide Receiver
The Falcons gave up 23 completions to Jalen Hurts, but those 23 only went for 183 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta did an excellent job at keeping everything in front of them and not giving up any big plays in the passing game. The longest completion for the Eagles was 19 yards to DeVonta Smith.
So far, in two weeks, only three KC wide receivers have seen a reception. Of those three, there are two to focus on: Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Rice leads the Chiefs in receptions (12), yards (178), and targets (15). Rice should draw the attention of Dee Alford from Atlanta. This should be a favorable matchup for Rice, as Alford has given the most FP/RR (.24) of all Atlanta CBs.
Xavier Worthy is the other wide receiver from the Chiefs that should be in lineups. Worthy is tied for third in targets (7) and receptions (4) but is second in yards (64). Worthy should see a lot of AJ Terrell on Sunday. Terrell is the fastest corner on Atlanta’s roster, and he should be the one who has to deal with Worthy’s speed. He is giving up .23 FP/RR, and his matchups see a target on 12.7% of routes ran. Worthy is seeing a target on 16.7% of his routes and averaged .39 fantasy points per route.
Justin Watson is the only other receiver from KC that has a reception. Watson has played in 48% of the Chiefs snaps over the first two weeks. He has only seen three targets when he is on the field, averaging a target on 5% of his snaps. Juju Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore saw snaps in Week 2, but neither saw a target in their 18 combined snaps. Both are deep punt plays.
Tier 1: Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy
Tier 2: Justin Watson
Punts/Fades: Juju Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore
Tight End
Travis Kelce is the Chief’s best tight end, but he has had a slow start to the season. He has played 107 snaps but only has seven targets for four receptions and 39 yards and has failed to find the end zone. The Falcons allow 10.4 DK against tight ends in their first two games. The Eagle’s tight ends had five receptions for 57 yards on six targets this past Monday. While Kelce has struggled, we can’t outright fade him as he has the potential to go off in any game, as he has the best connection with Mahomes.
Noah Gray is the backup tight end and can be a punt play. He has played 66 snaps this season and has seen three targets. He failed to have a target last week, which is why I see him as a punt play.
Tier 1: Travis Kelce
Tier 2: Noah Gray
Deep Punt: Jared Wiley
Running Back
The Chiefs have been the fourth-best team against running backs so far, giving up 15.5 DK per game. They have allowed 114 rushing yards and a touchdown. They have given only 65 receiving yards to running backs, but they have allowed the fifth-most yards per reception (9.28).
In week 1, KC allowed Ravens running back Hill to finish with 53 receiving yards. Bijan Robinson is great at catching balls out of the backfield, having the fifth most receiving yards (555) by a running back since the start of last season. Robinson is one of my main targets for Showdown because of his pass-catching abilities, and it doesn’t hurt that he is averaging over 5 yards per carry this season.
Robinson’s backup, Tyler Allgeier, also has a similar skill set that can cause trouble for KC. He is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season and has over 200 receiving yards since the start of 2023. I will roster him in some lineups, but I am not going overboard since this is still Bijan’s backfield.
Tier 1: Bijan Robinson
Tier 2: Tyler Allgeier
Wide Receiver
The Chiefs have been good against wide receivers so far this season. Through two weeks, they have allowed the 10th fewest DK points (24.7), 190 receiving yards, and two touchdowns to wide receivers.
Drake London is the leading wide receiver for the Falcons. London should play most of the game on the field’s right side, which will see him matched up with Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs. Watson is giving up .25 FP/RR, which is the second most by a Chiefs CB, only behind Chamarri Conner, who is their slot CB. London should see some success against Watson if the offensive line gives Cousins the chance to throw. London is seeing a target on 23.6% of his routes ran and getting .38 fantasy points per route ran.
The second wide receiver is Darnell Mooney. Mooney draws the short straw in terms of matchups, as he should see Trent McDuffie most of the day. McDuffie is allowing the fewest fantasy points per route run (.18) and the lowest percentage of targets (10.9%). I still like Mooney, but I would put him behind London.
Atlanta’s third wide receiver is Ray-Ray McCloud III. McCloud has played in 77.7% of the Falcons snaps this season, leading the team in targets with 12. He is my favorite punt CPT on DK and a solid flex play on FD because of his price.
Tier 1: Drake London
Tier 2: Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III
Tight End
KC could have had a worse start in stopping opposing tight ends. They give up the most points to opposing tight ends, 30.8 DK. Tight ends have 25 receptions, 276 yards, and a touchdown against the Chiefs in the first two weeks. Last week, the three Bengal tight ends who saw a target had 17 receptions and 151 yards.
Kyle Pitts is the top tight end for the Falcons. He has seen seven targets in the first two games, six receptions, and a touchdown. Pitts is still looking for his breakout performance this season, and this matchup is his best chance.
Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley have had snaps this season at tight end. Neither is in play for me, as only Woerner had seen a target in week 1 when he had two targets and one reception for four yards.
Tier 1: Kyle Pitts
Punt/Fade: Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bijan Robinson and Rashee Rice
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Xavier Worthy
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bijan Robinson and Rashee Rice
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Drake London
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Kirk Cousins, Kyle Pitts
DraftKings CPT Punt: Ray-Ray McCloud III
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2:
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Kyle Pitts Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DK)
Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Derek Carr
The Eagles are ranked 31st in defensive DVOA only behind the Washington Commanders. They are ranked 22nd against the WR1 and 31st against the WR2. They have given up the 4th most receiving yards (385) only behind the Lions, Jaguars, and Patriots (who have played 3 games). They have allowed the second most receiving TDs in the league only trailing Washington.
The Saints have put up the most points in the NFL over the first two games led by Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara. Unless a completely different Eagles team and completely different Saints team show up on Sunday, this one seems easy given Carrs DraftKings price of $5,800 and low ownership (around 5%).
Others to consider:
Running Back
Jordan Mason
It appears we are just jumping right back on the Jordan Mason bandwagon. DraftKings refuses to price him up appropriately and this offense just lost Deebo Samuel and most likely George Kittle. The Rams are ranked 27th in DVOA against the rush while giving up 31.7 DraftKings points per game. That is the third worst in the league only behind the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys (thanks Alvin Kamara). Just roll out Mason and get different at another position because this isn’t the spot to get cute.
D’Andre Swift
I’ll give Swift a shot in GPPs. It isn’t like this guy will never be fantasy-relevant again in his career. This Sunday he draws what is one of the best fantasy matchups for running backs against the Indianapolis Colts. Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs have destroyed these guys. Both backfields combined for 350 rushing yards on a league-high 76 attempts. The Bears can not move the ball through the air and they are down Keenan Allen. It would be wise to attempt to establish the run with Swift or Khalil Herbert.
Others to consider:
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith
It isn’t the easiest matchup against the Saints for him as New Orleans is ranked 3rd in DVOA against the WR1, however, Smith has thrived as the true WR1 when A.J. Brown has been ruled out. In the last two seasons, when Brown has missed a game Smith’s fantasy production leaps from 14.7 PPR points to 21.7 PPR points. He averages just over two more receptions per game (7.5) while being targeted an average of 11 times per game. The touchdowns haven’t taken a massive jump going from 0.4 TDs per game to 0.5 TDs per game. The targets, receptions, and yards have been the largest boost.
The Saints are ranked 24th against the WR2. In this case, I am going to give Britain Covey the WR2 role, as he runs out of the slot. Jahan Dotson is going to largely draw coverage from rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry so he will also have the opportunity to perhaps string together a big catch or two.
Amari Cooper
The New York Giants are ranked 28th in DVOA against receivers while allowing the highest deep pass rate on the slate. WR1 Amari Cooper has had a steady diet of 8+ targets in each of the first two games. The primary matchups for him were much tougher against Trevon Diggs of the Dallas Cowboys and the Jacksonville Jaguars (21st in DVOA against the pass. Cooper will see a mix of Cor’Dale Flott (1.48 YPRC), Deonte Banks (1.30 YPRC), and rookie Andru Phillips. Both Flott and Banks are in the bottom 13 of all starting corners in the NFL, that are not rookies, in allowing yards per route covered. Cooper gains by far the most YPRR on the Browns (2.31) while having the most air yards and target percentage (22.6%). At only $6,100 for the star receiver, it is time to jump back on the ship.
Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings
It is pretty safe to say that a ton of the offense should flow through Brandon Aiyuk with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle joining Christian McCaffrey on the sidelines this Sunday. I tried to dig into splits with all three out and only Aiyuk in, but those don’t exist. The Rams have the 27th overall best pass defense via DVOA while giving up the second-highest deep ball percentage in the league. Aiyuk soaks up the most air yard on the team (14.5 per route run). He comes in at a laughable $6,200 on DraftKings. He will be my highest exposed receiver across cash and GPPs.
If you are trying to pivot off him simply because he is “chalk” I would go down to Jauan Jennings, coming in at under 4% owned. That is way too low for the role he is going to be playing against this Rams defense.
Tyler Johnson, Demarcus Robinson
The 49ers have been far worse against the WR2 (ranked 28th overall). In this case, Tyler Johnson is the WR2, as he and Robinson will play close to 100% of snaps. Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell should split the WR3 work.
Demarcus Robinson is the new WR1 for the Rams and isn’t “free” as DraftKings has raised his price to $5,000. He should play essentially every snap for LA, but will also draw the 49er’s best coverage of a combination of Isaac Yiadom and Charvaius Ward. He is no doubt a solid play overall but I prefer the lower-owned Johnson in top-heavy GPPs.
DeAndre Hopkins
He has been limited getting back into game shape but is reportedly going to get increased snaps moving forward. He will draw Eric Stokes of the Packers in primary coverage who has been giving up chuck yardage plays to receivers over the first two games. Calvin Ridley is going to likely draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, perhaps forcing more targets to Hopkins from Levis, like we saw last season. I am willing to take a shot on a cheap DHop in what could be a pass-heavy script for the Titans.
Last week’s slate breakers appear to be back in another good spot.
I really don’t want to just write up the guys who had a good game last week but when the research leads me to their names, I have no choice. I like filtering cornerbacks by how many yards they allow per covered route (YPRC). This week the two corners, who are not rookies, who have allowed the highest YPRC this season are Avonte Maddox (2.14) of the Eagles and Carlton Davis (1.82) of the Lions. If I sort by defender projected target share Avonte Maddox has the second-highest percentage on the slate (20%), while Carlton Davis comes in at the 13th highest (17.6%).
Avonte Maddox‘s primary matchup this week is Rasheed Shaheed.
Carlton Davis’s primary matchup is Marvin Harrison Jr.
There are two guys who smashed last week but you can run straight back to them, as that is where the numbers have led us.
Others to consider/mix in MME
Tight End
Brock Bowers
My love for Brock Bowers this year isn’t going to stop going up against what has been one of the worst teams defending the tight end. The Panthers are bad at everything, not just defending the run. Some may flock to Zamir White because of the rushing stats and ignore the prime matchup for the former Georgia standout. The Panthers have allowed two passing touchdowns to the tight end this season, while no other team has allowed more than one. They have given up the third most fantasy points to the position while being targeted at the 25th-highest rate. Bowers is going to score this weekend at least once. He will perhaps move the highest-priced tight end over the next few games. He is a stud that you can ride all season long. Take the guaranteed points with Bowers, especially if fading White or Adams.
Others to consider:
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.
Week 2 was just very good for us in the betting market. I went 12-4 in several pools, and more importantly won our Win Daily pool on the Sleeper App with an 11-5 mark. The position of fading the market and not buying the hype worked well. On the Win Daily page, I was just 2-2 and that puts us at 4-4 overall. But that’s solid as we’re going to grow the early season malaise into a winning way. So follow and hop on the train when you see fit. As I’m confident we’re on our way to another winning season here in the NFL betting market. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.
I highlighted this last year, that I like to fade teams coming off a win versus the 49ers. But 2024 ended up being different as teams coming off a win versus the 49ers were 4-0 SU the following week (49ers had 5 losses but their 5th was in week 18 to Rams).
However, I’m back on the bandwagon of fading teams off a 49ers win and it starts this week with the Vikings. Minnesota has looked good in 2024 by beating the Giants soundly then following that up with a big win against SF. But the jury is still out as they have a mediocre QB in Sam Darnold and a bunch of misfit toys on offense with WR Justin Jefferson the only real threat for defenses. Minnesota will be once again without WR Jordan Addison as he’ll this week with an ankle injury.
The real key is the Vikings pass D which has been bad the past few years. The Texans strong point is their pass O, with CJ Stroud passing to a triumvirate of quality receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On the other side, the Texans are bringing a fierce pass rush and that will help befuddle Darnold and create turnover opportunities.
The Texans didn’t look great on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, but they won. Which is the sign of a good team. They’ll take those lessons learned and apply them into a big road win in Minnesota this weekend.
In a battle of promising young QB’s, I’m going with Anthony Richardson and the Colts today. Indianapolis lost a tough game at Green Bay last week. That was off the heels of a narrow loss to division rivals the Houston Texans. The big reason why they’re sitting at 0-2 instead of 2-0 is turnovers, as Richardson has four interceptions to his name already this season. And each one has been unforced and unfortunate. But the good news for the Colts is their offensive line has played stellar as they are #1 in pass blocking and run blocking this season. So there is room for yards to be had even against a tough Bears D.
On the other side, we have a team in the Bears that are 31st in the league in total offense. Chicago QB Caleb Williams is running for his life as he’s been sacked nine times in the first two games. It’s evident that teams are willing to blitz Williams and force him to flush out of the pocket. I expect the Colts will do the same today and make life hard, once again, on the 2024 #1 pick.
The Will Levis experience has not been fun for HC Brian Callahan. Two inexplicable turnovers in the first 2 weeks have cost the Titans dearly as they lost nailbiters to the Jets and Bears. The good news is the defense has been outstanding, holding teams to 206.5 yds/game. That ranks 1st in the league.
We know the issue in Tennessee is the QB play, especially the turnovers. In Green Bay, they have their own QB issues. Former Titan QB Malik Willis looks inline to get another start today. The Packers limited Willis to just 14 pass attempts last week as they chose to try to win a game like the 1960’s teams, with the running game. Green Bay ended up running the ball 53 times last week for a 79/21% run to pass ratio. That type of gameplan won’t work today in Tennessee as the Titans allow just 92.5 yards/game on the ground in 2024.
We need to keep an eye on the Jordan Love situation because if he is able to play this line will shift. And it could impact whether or not I play the Titans.
Close your eyes and say a prayer for me. As I’m betting the Carolina Panthers today when they travel to Vegas to take the field against the Raiders. I’m playing numbers here, as what we’ve seen on the gridiron so far could now have me logically back the Panthers. First, the switch to QB Andy Dalton should boost some life into an inept offense. Dalton has been solid wherever he’s gone and is a serviceable NFL QB. Secondly, the Raiders are traveling back west after one week on the east coast. And that week was productive as they pulled off a shocking upset of the Baltimore Ravens. However, the back-and-forth travel, plus the exuberance of a huge win will play against them today.
The other piece of good news is that these teams are much closer in DVOA than the spread suggests. The Raiders are 25th in defensive DVOA while the Panthers are 24th. Offensively, Carolina ranks 32nd, but Las Vegas isn’t far behind at 28th. In yardage, the Raiders allow 349.5 yds/game (24th) while the Panthers allow 364 yds/game (25th).
Lastly, the books are showing just 8% of the tickets and 7% of the bets coming in on Carolina. Yet, they’ve only moved this line by 0.5 points since it opened. Something seems fishy in Vegas as this shows signs of potential smart money coming in if the line is moved to 6.5 or 7. It’s a cat and mouse game at the windows that I’m sure bettors, and odds makers, are keeping an eye on. But the volume coming in now doesn’t align with line movement. Close my eyes and say a prayer, I’m playing the numbers and zagging against the public with the Carolina Panthers (note it’s worked the first two weeks).
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