NFL

We took one on the chin last week as the public once again beat the books. But Thursday night showed hope, as the Rams won as despite getting only 22% of the bets. So we may be seeing a shift in the numbers. Therefore, we’ll stay consistent with our modeling and research and hopefully come out on the right side this weekend.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all our pick last week with the Commanders.

NFL BETS WEEK 8 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 12-16)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Jags return to the states after two weeks in London. They left on a winning note, by beating the Patriots last weekend in Wembly Stadium. The Jags have been known to go on a run at least once a year under Doug Pederson, who looks to be coaching for his job. So could last week be the start of one? The big reason for this bet is the betting handle at the windows. The line in some books has moved down to +4 or +3.5. But the betting numbers show just 13% of tickets coming in on Jacksonville. Something smells here so I’m going to zag and go with the Jags.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills are taking one of the longest road trips in the NFL and will have to go up against the Seahawks and their raucous crowd on Sunday. While the Bills have been trending upwards, I still think they are overrated to an extent. The addition of Amari Cooper helps but they still lack some key pieces. The Seahawks finally played a complete game last week in Atlanta and will look to bring that good mojo back to Seattle and pull off an upset of the Bills.

CHICAGO BEARS -1.5 at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

One team is coming off a bye and the other doesn’t know if their QB will be healthy enough to play. We all hope Jayden Daniels can suit up in this matchup of the top 2 picks in the NFL Draft. But I’m taking the rested team that had two weeks to prepare for Washington. Plus, the Bears defense looks great right now and I believe they can stifle this high flying Commanders offense.

DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5 at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Don’t ask me why. But I feel like the Cowboys are due for one of those put up or shut up games. This is the perfect spot as everyone is down on Jerry and his Boys.

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

Best team in football against one of the worst teams. It doesn’t get easier than this. Famous last words.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 7 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Ravens at Dolphins in the early game and the Chargers at the Cardinals slated for the later time slot. Note, the Chargers/Cardinals game is an exclusive ESPN+ streaming game.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 6 points apart. We have the best game stack environment is Baltimore/Tampa Bay as that total is set at 50 points. The Chargers/Cardinals game has a total of 44 so it’s still a good place to go for smaller stacks.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.

LAMAR JACKSON ($8000 DK) – The reigning NFL MVP is always in play on any card. But when you have one as short as this, with just 2 games, he’s the top arm to target. Especially when you factor in his matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 4th most passing yards/game in the NFL at 252.3. And it doesn’t stop there, as the Bucs are allowing 113.3 yard/game on the ground (19th in NFL). But the key here is their play against other mobile QB’s, as they’ve allowed 187 yards rushing to signal callers. This includes a 16 carry, 88 yard performance by Jayden Daniels. So there is room for LJack to run against the Bucs too thus raising his fantasy potential.

BAKER MAYFIELD ($6800 DK) – There are only 3 teams allowing more yards passing than the Bucs. And the Ravens are one of those. Baltimore allows the most passing yards per game at 275.5. And with the weapons at Baker’s disposal, he should be able to carve up a weak Ravens secondary. And as far as this season goes, Baker is top 10 in passing yards as he averages 248.2 per game. He’s also tied for the lead league with 15 passing TD’s. Therefore, Baker is a great play for tonight in what could be a shootout in Tampa.

KYLER MURRAY ($6500 DK) – Murray looks to have the toughest matchup of the four QB’s tonight as the Chargers have a top 5 defense in almost all metrics. This includes allowing a league low in 13.2 points/game. But one thing to consider is that Murray has most of his weapons fully healthy, including Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride. And the Chargers have played just one top 15 QB in this league, Patrick Mahomes, which means they’ve feasted on lesser competition. So I do encourage some lineups with Murray as we’re seeing him projected as the lowest owned QB, at just 11%. It’s always a good idea to zag in smaller slates.

JUSTIN HERBERT ($5500 DK) – The issue with Herbert isn’t talent. We all know he has a big arm and can make plays with his legs. But it’s the weapons and style of play of the Chargers, which limits Herbert’s fantasy ceiling. He’s averaging just 11.4 fantasy points per game and hasn’t surpassed 13.7 points in any game. Yet his numbers are looking good as he has a 6-to-1 touchdown to INT ratio. The other factor to consider is that LA plays at the slowest pace in the league, averaging a full 30 seconds per snap. And they run at the 3rd highest rate in the league, thus keeping the clock moving on a consistent basis. The matchup and salary are tempting, but I’m going to focus on the other three QB’s for my two-game slates.

Tier 1: LAMAR JACKSON, BAKER MAYFIELD

Tier 2: KYLER MURRAY

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.

DERRICK HENRY ($8000 DK) – The Ravens run the ball at the highest rate in the league and average an eye-opening 205.3 yards per game on the ground. There’s no question Henry is the #1 back on this small slate. You could even pair him with Lamar Jackson and soak up all the 200 yards this team is projected to gain on the ground.

JAMES CONNER ($6600 DK) – Conner is either hit or miss this season. When he’s faced rushing defenses in top 15 in rushing yards allowed, he’s averaged just 8.2 fantasy points per game. In the other three games, he’s averaging 21 fantasy points per game. Well, the Chargers are 6th in rush defense, so I’m fading Conner tonight in most lineups as I think there are better spots at better prices,

J.K. DOBBINS ($6400 DK) – Great back with a great price and matchup tonight. The Chargers RB is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and 17 fantasy points per game. Arizona allows the 9th most points to RB’s.

RACHAAD WHITE ($5700 DK) – I won’t play White tonight. He’s status is questionable and he may not play. But even if he does, he’s up against a team allowing just 59 yards/game. White is averaging just 3.6 yards/carry this season and will not find room on the ground against a tough Ravens front.

BUCKY IRVING ($5900 DK) – My amount of exposure to Irving will vary based on White’s status. While I don’t like White against the Ravens, I do think Irving could find some room as he’s averaging 5.7 yards/carry. He’s also a threat as a catcher, which is an area that the Ravens are susceptible, allowing 4.3 receptions per game to RB’s (16th most in league).

SEAN TUCKER ($5900 DK) – Tucker is only in play if White doesn’t suit up. He had a great week as a backup to Irving. But he still saw just 38% of the snaps and some of that was due to the game being out of hand in the 4th quarter. As of note, he had 0 snaps the last time White and Irving were both healthy (week 5).

KIMANI VIDAL ($4400 DK) – The Chargers RB has been promoted due to Gus Edwards injury. And he provided a nice fantasy spark with 13.1 points in last week’s game at Denver. He saw only 24% of the snaps, but that should go up tonight as he’s had more time practicing with the first team. He’s a good salary saver for GPP’s.

EMARI DEMARCADO ($4000 DK) – Demarcado out-snapped James Conner almost 2 to 1 last week. That was most likely because of score, but when he was in, the Cards tried to get him the ball. Demarcado had the second most targets on the team at 7. He could be a nice change-up against an aggressive Chargers D.

Tier 1: DERRICK HENRY, JK DOBBINS

Tier 2: BUCKY IRVING, JAMES CONNER

Wide Receiver

CHRIS GODWIN ($7400 DK) – Godwin has been a fantasy superstar this year with 21.7 points/game. Coming into Week 7, he led the league in receptions with 43. He can take that lead again with just 5 catches tonight, which shouldn’t be an issue versus the worst pass defense in the league. I like Godwin over Evans, due to him consistently getting targets (9 per game) but I will see some lineups with both.

MIKE EVANS ($730000 DK) – Evans is tied with his counterpart, Chris Godwin, for the team lead in receiving TD’s with 5. But he has 18 less receptions on just 11 less targets. This just shows the difficulty in the routes and balls that are thrown Evans way. But Baltimore has allowed the second most points to fantasy WR’s so he’s a top 2 target on tonight’s slate.

MARVIN HARRISON JR ($7000 DK) – Maybe Kyler Murray really doesn’t like Harrison Jr. He’s had three weeks of 2 catches or less (with last week’s game shortened by injury). But if they are going to contend, and win games against tough teams, he’ll need to send the ball Harrison’s way tonight. I still think the salary is a bit high for the matchup and lack of volume. He can bust one at any time but I prefer the other passing options for the Cards.

ZAY FLOWERS ($6700 DK) – Flowers has two straight games of at least 25 fantasy points. He’s seeing on average 7 targets per game. And he gets to against a defense that is allowing the 4th most points to WR’s.

LADD MCCONKEY ($4900) / QUENTIN JOHNSON ($4600 DK) / JOSH PALMER ($4400 DK) – Of the Chargers trio, I like Josh Palmer the most tonight. He saw just three targets last week but was matched up against Patrick Surtain for most of the game. I expect him to be WR #1 for LAC as he has the best repoire with QB Justin Herbert. It looks like Johnson will miss tonight. If he does, that opens up McConkey to see the field in most 2 WR sets. So his value goes up without Johnson.

SIMI FEHOKO ($3000 DK) – A pure shot in the dark but Fehoko did see more targets than Palmer and Johnson last week and turned that into 6.4 DK points.

Of note, MICHAEL WILSON ($4700 DK) is my favorite Cardinals WR. He’s been very consistent in the past four weeks, averaging almost 11 fantasy points per game in those contests. But keep an eye on ZAY JONES ($4500 DK) as he’s scheduled to make his Cardinals debut tonight.

Tier 1: CHRIS GODWIN, MIKE EVANS, ZAY FLOWERS

Tier 2: MICHAEL WILSON, JOSH PALMER,

TIER 3: MAVIN HARRISON JR, RASHOD BATEMAN, LADD MCCONKEY, ZAY JONES, STERLINE SHEPARD

Tight End

With have some big name TE’s on the slate. Baltimore has allowed the 24th most points to TE’s so that raises the value of Cade Otton. But you won’t want to pair him with all the Bucs receivers. So get creative there. I think Mark Andrews recent resurgence puts him ahead of Likely in my pecking order. Anytime Murray plays, McBride is in a smash spot.

Tier 1: TREY MCBRIDE, CADE OTTON

Tier 2: MARK ANDREWS, ISAIAH LIKELY, WILL DISSLY

DEFENSE

I prefer the defenses in the later game and am hoping the earlier game is a shootout.

Tier 1: LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Tier 2: BALTIMORE RAVENS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.

Best Rules for the slate (BALT at TAMPA):

• Play at least two WR’s tonight in your lineups, preferably three. Both pass defenses are vulnerable.
• It’s unlikely you’ll have room for both QB’s and solid pass catchers. In showdown, the salaries are much closer so I favor Lamar. But try to fit at least one QB in your build.
• We are looking for a shootout, so I’m fading both defenses. Ravens are the only one I’d consider since they’ve racked up 19 sacks this year.
• Derrick Henry is a beast, but I’ll be on the lower side of ownership so I can fit in the passing weapons. He’s still in play though, obviously. I’ll just be less than the predicted rate of 70%.
• Kickers baby! Both are in play due to the high pace of both teams.
• My favorite TE is Cade Otton with Mark Andrews as my #2. Both are cheaper than Likely.
• Keep an eye on Sterline Shepard. He’s clearly the 3rd WR for TB and is at a good price.
• If White is out, I will play more of Irving. I think he’s crucial in spacing the field for Tampa.

Best Rules for the slate (LAC at ARZ):

• My favorite CPT for this game is Trey McBride. But I’ll also consider J.K. Dobbins, Kyler Murray and Josh Palmer.
• Don’t fret the matchup, Kyler Murray needs to have a good game coming off a poor one at Green Bay. I believe he can do so as LA hasn’t faced many premiere QB’s this year.
• Kristian Fulton is one of the top DB’s in the league. He could give Harrison some fits but I still like the former Buckeye in Flex positions. I don’t think he gets for volume for CPT but can break one at any time.
• Chargers WR’s are priced well. I won’t want to play more than one in any of my lineups, unless it’s Fehoko as my 2nd as he is just $1800 and needs just 6+ points to pay off his value.
• Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
• The defenses are in play as well, with the Cardinals my preference as they’ve forced 8 turnovers this year.
• One name to keep in mind is Emari Demarcado. Any injury or change in game environment could force the Cards to use Demarcado, and if they do so he’s a threat in the passing game.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Here we go! Well, at least it’s a quiet week from that standpoint as the Cowboys are off on a bye. But we did assess the Cowboys correctly last week as we were all over the Lions who thrashed Dallas in a beatdown for the ages. However, once again, a middling week as we are stuck in neutral with a 2-2 mark. Don’t fret, as I’m confident the wins are coming, and I’m feeling really good about the card in Week 7. If you didn’t see the news, the books got hammered last week and took a massive beating to the public. Overall, the public went 11-2-1. Which probably explains my 2-2 record because I’m normally zigging against the public. So you know what that means, Vegas is due for a big one which could be perfectly aligned with my zags below.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all of our picks last week including the Eagles. Which is good news because frankly, they stink. So getting the Birds out of the way will help pave the way to success here going forward.

NFL BETS WEEK 7 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 11-13)

TENNESSEE TITANS +9.5 at BUFFALO BILLS

The Titans are bad, but mainly because of their QB play. Because of that, they are shifting gears and moving off of Will Levis and handing the reigns to Mason Rudolph. The latter has played one game this season, in relief, and propelled the Titans to their lone victory over the Dolphins. Rudolph has proved he can play in this league and gives the Titans a much better chance than the Mayonnaise King (Will Levis).

Also, we’re seeing 88% of the money coming in on Buffalo. That’s the highest amount for any team on the slate tomorrow. We saw the public win last week but I don’t see it happening two weeks in a row. Also, Buffalo is coming off a Monday night game and on a short week which is always a bettors angle to take. So I’ll fade the herd and back the Titans in a game where I expect them to be competitive throughout.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans looked to get back on track last week with a convincing win over the Patriots. But the key part of this is they did it against a very bad team in New England. And it was QB Drake Maye’s first career start which exemplified the precarious condition of the Patriots. On the other hand, the Packers took care of business at home against a Cardinals team that was coming off a thrilling victory against the 49ers. In that game, the Packers outgained the Cards by 134 yards and won the turnover battle 3 to 1.

The Packers are seeing just 17% of the money as of this writing. The public is very high on the 5-1 Texans but I think the better team resides on the other sideline. I’ll back the Pack to continue their winning streak and get their 3rd straight victory this Sunday at Lambeau Field.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +3.5 at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts are dreadful on defense. The Dolphins are returning from a BYE week and saw plenty of film on the 19th ranked defense according to DVOA. While I have questions about HC Mike McDaniel, he had a full week to prepare for the Colts which should bode well for his team. And he gets the luxury of having RB De’von Achane return to the lineup who missed the last 1.5 games with a concussion.

The Colts are welcoming the return of a star on their side too, as QB Anthony Richardson is expected to start. But he’s struggled mightily this season completing just 50.6% of his passes and throwing 6 INT’s to just 3 TD’s. They will also be without RB Jonathan Taylor which is a big deal as Miami ranks 31st in rushing defense DVOA.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1.5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This is all about Super Bowl revenge. The Eagles beat the Chiefs last year in a similar role. And the 49ers are desperate for a win. I like San Fran to play their best game of the season this week and start getting on a role towards the top of the NFC once again.

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

While I do think the Commanders are a playoff contender, they aren’t an easy team to take in Survivor based on their upcoming schedule and opponents. But this is the week that we have an opportunity to check off a middle of the pack team. That’s because Washington is hosting the worst team in football this week in the Carolina Panthers. Daniels should have his way and help lead the Commanders to their 5th win on the season and help Washington stay atop the NFC East.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 6 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We almost nailed last night’s winning lineup, just missing out by 5 points. And if you saw, it was another night where a lesser owned CPT was the key pick in DK (Tyrone Tracy). So let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between AFC East rivals. While we’re all tired of seeing the Jets in primetime, we have a lot of information on them seeing they’ve played in a solo slot three of their first five games. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

BUFFALO BILLS

Running Back

The Jets are a confounding case on defense. We know they create good pressure and have a solid defensive backfield. So teams tend to run on them more than others. And when done correctly, teams have moved the ball efficiently on the ground against New York. Just go back to Week 1 and watch the Jordan Mason show. And the advanced numbers support that as they rank 31st in rushing defense grading according to PFF and are 21st in rush defense DVOA. But the fantasy numbers tell a slightly different story as they allow the 10th least points to RB’s. That’s partly due to the fact they’ve only allowed two rushing TD’s this season.

The Bills are a tough team to predict, from a running game standpoint, because Josh Allen often skews their numbers. They receive a run blocking grade that is 20th best in the league. But their rush offense is 12th according to DVOA and they average 118.3 yards/game on the ground, which is 15th best in the league. However, Allen is the second leading rusher on the team and when you take away his stats, the Bills RB’s average just 3.81 yards/carry.

As for James Cook, he’s had a solid season but most of his points came in one game, when he scored 3 TD’s against the Dolphins. The confusing part is his snap share. Since week 1, he’s seen the following snap percentages; 47%, 50%, 56% and 59%. Good news is that number is trending up. But it still seems low for what should be the lead back in a good offense. What this means to me, is that in a single game showdown, we could get some sneaky value in the second tier of Bills RB’s.

One major note to consider is that James Cook is questionable for tonight with a foot injury. If he doesn’t go, we could get some real value in Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. I lean Johnson just because he’s had the higher snap counts recently (though Davis has more touches in limited action). Just seems like the Bills trust Johnson more with Davis being a rookie.

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ty Johnson, Ray Davis

Wide Receiver

It’s tough to attack the Jets in the passing game due to the presence of Sauce Gardner. But they have more than just Sauce in the defensive backfield. While some WR’s have seen success through the air, the Jets rank #1 in passing yards allowed per game at just 136.6. They also allow the 5th least fantasy points to WR’s. Digging deeper we find the Jets rank #2 in pass coverage according to PFF and have the top-rated cover cornerback in DJ Reed (Sauce is 47th this year).

The Bills have no true #1 WR’s. Which impacts their ability to move the ball down the field as they lack big plays. We have seen their first-round pick, Keon Coleman, grow over the first five weeks as he has a TD in two of the last three weeks. But his target share is limited as seen just 16% of the targets in those three weeks. Leading WR Khalil Shakir is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. That same injury kept him out of Week 5’s game at Houston which led to Josh Allen’s worst completion percentage of his career (9 of 30 for 131 yards passing). If he plays, Shakir provides value as he’s scored at least 10.2 fantasy points in every game this year.

This is a tough area to attack the Jets but I do believe one of the Bills WR’s will be needed in a winning lineup. Mack Hollins is my primary choice of the cheaper options as he had 6 targets in each of the past 2 games.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins

Punts: Curtis Samuel

Tight End

The Jets have allowed just 4.1 fantasy points per game to TE’s, which is 2nd least in the league. They’ve allowed just 15 catches for 128 yards and 0 TD’s.

This is an extremely tough matchup for Dalton Kincaid. But he did face the Jets twice last season and brought in 10 catches for 72 yards. Last week, with Shakir out, he led the team with 6 targets. So I like him as receiver #1 tonight for the Bills as Josh Allen’s ability to break the pocket will allow Kincaid to find space in the secondary.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

The Bills are a team that you can beat on the ground. Injuries to the defensive line have been a factor. But they’ve been susceptible to good running games for years now (finished 17th in fantasy points to RB’s in 2023). This season, they are allowing the most points to fantasy RB’s. And that is primarily due to their inability to cover backs in the passing game. On the season, RB’s are averaging 7.2 receptions per game against the Bills. This alone impacts DK rankings due to the nature of their scoring system.

Breece Hall has been a major disappointment as he has just 197 yards rushing this season. In his last two games, he has just 27 yards and has averaged just 5.3 fantasy points per game. I do expect that to change tonight because of the vulnerability of the Bills run defense but also Hall’s ability to catch the ball in the passing game. He’s averaging 4.2 catchers per game.

Tier 1: Breece Hall 

Tier 2: Braelon Allen

Wide Receiver

The Bills have good defensive numbers against WR’s. But some of that has been hidden by crooked scoreboards or bad QB play. They do allow 198.4 passing yards per game, 19th most, but we’ve seen better QB’s exploit them (see CJ Stroud last week).

The issues with the Jets passing offense is they play slow. New York is 18th in pace, averaging 27.2 seconds between plays. They also don’t go no-huddle much, ranking 20th at 7.9%. Maybe that all changes tonight with a new play-caller at the helm. But I still think this will be a more deliberate attack, as is the norm with QB Aaron Rodgers who loves to read the defense pre-snap.

Garrett Wilson is the primary as he saw a ridiculous amount of targets last game with 22. Allen Lazard had an impressive 10 targets against Minnesota and leads the team with 4 TD’s. Mike Williams is still finding his room but is ready to have a big game soon.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Allen Lazard, Mike Williams

Tier 3/Cheap Options: Xavier Gipson

Tight End

The Jets primarily use Tyler Conklin at TE. He has 17 receptions on the season but no TD’s. The Bills have been good against TE’s allowing just 10.2 fantasy points per game. Only Cardinals TE Trey McBride has caught more than 4 balls against the Bills. And only Jacksonville TE Brenton Strange has found the endzone. I think more highly of Conklin than others and will have him in some of my lineups I stack a Jets passing attack.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson or Josh Allen. I’m passing on Aaron Rodgers at the MVP position because he doesn’t get enough big plays in the passing game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Breece Hall but will look at Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson and Dalton Kincaid.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Josh Allen

FDMVP Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook

FDMVP Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Khalil Shakir (questionable), Mack Hollins 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Josh Allen

DK CPT Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Garrett Wilson

DK CPT Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Mack Hollins

DK CPT Punt: 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Breece Hall
• Garrett Wilson
• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Dalton Kincaid
• Aaron Rodgers
• Allen Lazard
• Khalil Shakir (questionable)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Bills D
• Jets D
• Mike WIlliams
• Keon Coleman
• Tyler Conklin
• Mack Hollins
• Braelon Allen
• Tyler Bass
• Greg Zuerlein
• Ty Johnson

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Best Rules for the slate:

• Breece Hall is my favorite play tonight. He’s been criminally under-used and I look for tonight to be his breakout game.
• Josh Allen is a one-man show and will likely be the highest scorer on the slate. I look for him to go over his rushing yards adding value to his DFS stats and points.
• Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think Dalton Kincaid will be the #1 Bills receiver.
• I do like James Cook, and think he’ll be a factor in the game. I’m just worried about his TD equity. He’ll mostly be in my flex group and not MVP/CPT.
• If James Cook is OUT, I’m all in on Ty Johnson. He’ll provide salary relief and see over 60% of snaps.
• Don’t be afraid to play one of the Bills less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Mack Hollins as my favorite of the group.
• Aaron Rodgers won me a showdown earlier this year as a CPT. I’m not going back to the well as a CPT but do think you can use him as a flex.
• If you fade Garrett Wilson, look to a combo of Allen Lazard and Tyler Conklin. This would be a good zag from what the public will do.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is 41.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Aaron Rodgers over 0.5 INTS (-110)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We were so close to a sweep in Week 5. A reliable kicker, Evan McPherson, missed a FG in OT that would have put some cash in our bank. And Matt Stafford threw a late pick while the Rams were headed to a cover, and potential win, to cost us as well. So it’s another 2-2 week and what could have been. But the good news is, close means we’re trending right in our analysis. So I’m looking forward to this new week and new chances to get back on the winning track.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 6 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 9-11)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1 at CHICAGO BEARS

The Jaguars opened as 2.5 point underdogs and have shifted to favorites over the week. And looking at the action being bet on the early game in London, the Jags still are getting a minority of the bets and money. There are no significant injuries to either team, so the shift in line seems to be predicated on early sharp action on the Jags.

Either way, this does look to have a Jaguars type flavor to it. For one, Jacksonville is used to the overseas travel and has a routine for playing in London. So much so, they are actually playing there two weeks in a row for the second straight season. They’re accustomed to the travel, the practice routines, and most importantly the time change.

Then there is the matchup according to the team statistics. The Jags have the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA. But that is mostly due to the terrible pass defense. On the other side, the Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA. And they average just 191.8 yards/game passing the ball, ranking 23rd in the NFL. On the other side, while the Bears rank 7th in overall defensive DVOA, they are 30th against the run. Jacksonville ranks 16th overall in offense, according to DVOA, and has the 13th best rushing offense. That extends to PFF, as they have the 6th best rated run offense according to their metrics.

I like the normalcy of this game for Jacksonville and think their weaknesses won’t necessarily get exposed like they have against better pass offenses. Let’s start our Sunday with an early win.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons brought Kirk Cousins to Atlanta in the offseason to improve their putrid QB play. They didn’t know they were bringing his luck in close games as well. The latest example was last Thursday when Cousins threw for over 500 yards in leading a game-tying drive in regulation to a game-winning drive in OT against the Bucs. The Falcons now sit at 3-2 overall, but their plus/minus is -4. That’s because their three wins are by 1 point, 2 points, and 6 points (OT). In fact, all five of their games are one possession games, being decided by 8 points or less.

We all know the Panthers are a mess. Their latest outing was maybe their worst, losing 36-10 at Chicago. They’ve allowed at least 22 points in every game and have a league worst point differential of -84. But when they hit their low, is when we pounce. Recall week 3, when we backed the Panthers in Vegas and they came away with an outright victory. Today is looking the same, as just 18%of the bets and 12% of the money is on Carolina.

And truth be told, the Falcons don’t play good enough defense to blow teams out. They’re allowing 23.5 points/game and 335 yards/game, both in the bottom half of the league. I think the Panthers can keep this one close enough for a while, and then Kirk Cousins will wake up and lead the Falcons on a GW drive.

DETROIT LIONS -3 at DALLAS COWBOYS

These two teams played a classic last year. The Cowboys held on to a 20-19 victory in that game pushing them to 11-5 and on their way to the NFC East title. But it took many curious calls by HC Dan Campbell to aid the Boys in their victory. The final was a 2-point conversion fiasco, as the Lions were afforded two chances (after a curious flag on a converted opportunity to an ineligible OL) but both fell short. I’m sure that moment, which was a low point for Campbell, will fuel as motivation today.

The other key is the Lions are coming off a bye and have been scouting the Cowboys for weeks now. And what they’ve seen is an offense that is not the same as it was last year when it led the league in points/game (29.9). This season Dallas is down to 23.4 points/game, good for 16th in the NFL.

Lastly, Dallas struggles on defense as well ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA and 31st in rushing defense DVOA. That is worrisome as Detroit is 2nd overall in rushing offense DVOA as the deploy two quality RB’s in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions ability to exploit that weakness in the Cowboys will be the biggest factor, along with some added motivation from the HC, to help propel Detroit to a victory in Dallas. One they should have had last year.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Steelers are a solid team, but they don’t put up enough points to ever put teams away.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

This is a do-or-die game for the Bengals. After last week’s disappointing loss to the Ravens, Cincy has dropped to 1-4 and is 2.5 games out of the AFC North lead. The Giants are coming off a big win out west in Seattle, where they put up 29 points to beat the Seahawks. But news out of NY is that WR Malik Nabers is out for a second straight week, raising major concerns on how they’ll be able to keep up with a high paced Cincy offense.

SURVIVOR PICK

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

My survivor pool got so thin that they opened a new one starting this week! But the way this season has gone, this could be a bad investment. But I’m not getting tricky here, the Eagles aren’t very good but the Browns are worse. And Philly is coming off a bye with some renewed health. I’ll take the Eagles, in one of my only chances to do so, to start this new path to be the final survivor.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.