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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Thirteen

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a solid 3-1 week in our plays in last week’s article. The Colts let us down, but we were able to fade the Lions on Turkey Day to get our revenge. Speaking of that game, in my opinion that last play by the Bears is as much on the QB as it is on the coach. But it’s easier to fire the coach so I totally get what Chicago did on Friday. But looking forward here, we still have a healthy set of games to choose from and we’ll look to keep our streak going and finally climb over the hurdle that’s been so tough for us, that is 0.500.

As for Survivor, the Commanders were a ticking time bomb. We’re seeing their flaws and now they are fighting for their playoff lives.

NFL BETS WEEK 13 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 28-30-1, article plus discord game bets)

NEW YORK JETS +1 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I realize the Jets are the laughing stock of the league right now. Well, maybe the 2nd most laughable team behind their city partners in the Giants. But take it from someone who has been betting the Seahawks, this is a prime spot for New York to play spoilers. Seattle has struggled to score of late, managing just 36 points in the past 2 week. But coincidentally, they’ve won both of those games by limiting their opponents to 23 points. Some of that has been better play, but the other has been some fortune too as they’ve been outgained in those contests.

But the two wins have propelled them to 1st place in the NFC West and their stock is rising. The Jets were last on the field suffering a brutal defeat to the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 28-27. They’ve now had a week off, but people just remember the bad and their stock is at a low point. Which attracts me to the loveable losers. The money is pouring in on Seattle at an 82% clip. It just looks too easy. And when that’s the case, we zag and fade the money.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +3.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Speaking of another NFC West team, we bring you the Arizona Cardinals who are a confounding team. Riding a 4-game winning streak, the Cardinals laid an egg last week in Seattle scoring just 6 points. And that was coming off a BYE! On the other side, Minnesota is returning home for the first time in 4 weeks. They won all three road games, but struggled to do so winning the three by a combined 18 points. And their competition wasn’t necessarily the cream of the crop as Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago have a combined record 9-25.

The factor I’m looking at in this one is Minnesota versus good offenses. Versus teams in the top half of the NFL in offense according to DVOA, the Vikings are 1-2 SU. The Cardinals rank 11th overall in DVOA and averaged 342 yards/game (14th). I think the Cardinals can erase their poor game in Seattle by putting up points in Minnesota and creating turnovers from Sam Darnold, who has 10 INT’s on the season.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Panthers have shown an increased ability to compete since reinserting QB Bryce Young back into the starting role. They almost pulled off a miracle last week against Kansas City. In fact, they’ve covered three straight games and won 2 of those. While Tampa looked good last week, their defense is not good enough to lay a big number. They play much better as a dog as they’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite this season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

This is the one game that I’m with the public on. The Bengals pass D is so bad and Pittsburgh has shown an ability to move the ball through the air with Russell Wilson at QB. They will turn those dreaded FG’s to TD’s this week which gives me confidence in this bet. The Bengals are turning into the Chargers and finding ways to lose. I have a bad feeling they’ll do that again this week against a team that finds ways to win.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

DENVER BRONCOS

I hate going against my boy Jameis, but the Broncos present so many issues and I don’t think Cleveland has enough to overcome those. The snow was an equalizer from the Browns against the Steelers. They won their Super Bowl. But now back to reality and I see the Broncos rolling in this one.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS: Thanksgiving Edition

DFSGhost 5 months ago

written by DFSGhost

As we gear up for Week 13 of the NFL season, one of the best DFS slates of the year has arrived: Thanksgiving. Despite three games being much less than a traditional Sunday, the player pool is filled with enticing options at each position.

Be sure to use our proprietary NFL projections to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD)

Pacing the NFL with a whopping 32.7 points per game, Jared Goff has led this Lions offense to new heights this season. Surrounded by a plethora of talent at every position, Goff has entered Most Valuable Player conversations amongst the league’s best. Playing behind a stout offensive line that has only allowed 22 sacks through 11 games, Goff ranks fourth in protection rate amongst qualified quarterbacks, leading to the most efficient season of his career. Goff ranks first in yards per attempt, second in completion percentage, second in deep ball completion percentage, and third in red zone completion percentage. In a matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that has a mere 21.8% blitz rate and the third highest average depth of target allowed, Goff and the Lions offense are poised to have a big day.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000 DK / $8,000 FD)

Despite missing half of Miami’s games thus far through 12 weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has been having quite the season. Having won three in a row, Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins back into the playoff hunt. While the matchup is far from appealing on paper with the Packers ranked 4^th DVOA against the pass and the cold weather conditions, Tagovailoa’s ceiling is as high as any quarterback on this NFL slate. While the Packers don’t do anything exceptionally well or notably struggle in a particular area, Miami has an edge in player personnel, especially if Jaire Alexander is unable to play.

Thanks to the offensive play-calling of Mike McDaniel and a supporting cast of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Tagovailoa has averaged 255.5 yards per game since returning from injury, throwing for an average of 2.2 touchdowns. Moreover, he has averaged 34 passing attempts per game during that stretch, including a whopping 40 attempts last week, despite winning the game by 19 points. Make no mistake about it – this is one of the premier offenses in the NFL when Tagovailoa is under center. In their last three games, Miami is 3-0 and have averaged 30.33 points per game, while averaging 27.5 points per game in the six full games from their starting quarterback, versus 10 points per game with Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle under center. Expect Tagovailoa to get the ball out to his playmakers early and often.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Love, Caleb Williams

Running Backs

Devon Achane ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD)

Making his mark with an immediate impact in his rookie season, Devon Achane has quickly become a household name amongst the fantasy football community. Known for his big-play ability and exceptional speed, Achane fits this Miami offense like a glove. Despite the Packers’ defense holding rushing attacks to 4.3 yards per carry, 112.7 rushing yards per game, and 10 touchdowns, it is Achane’s work in the passing game that gives him one of, if not the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Essentially operating as the Dolphins WR2/WR3 this season, Achane ranks second in target share amongst running backs, third in receiving yards, and second in receptions. Sporting an absurd 44.4% route participation rate, Achane is poised for another big game, where he has posted over 20 fantasy points in four of the last five since Tagovailoa has returned, including four or more targets and three or more receptions during that span.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD)

If you are looking for a pivot to Achane at the running back position, look no further than Jahmyr Gibbs. Coming into this one as a 10-point home favorite, the Lions’ running back duo most certainly will be of interest. However, their level of importance on this slate relies upon David Montgomery’s health. At the time of writing, Montgomery was a non-participant in practice, leaving his status for Thursday’s game in question. If Montgomery is eventually ruled out, or is limited in any fashion, Gibbs immediately becomes a top priority.

Although he conceives a sizable amount of work to Montgomery in a shared backfield, Gibbs has made a true impact in the NFL’s best offense, despite the lack of opportunity compared to other teams’ featured running backs. Gibbs has only received 12 or more carries in two of the team’s last five games, while having a mere 51.8% snap share on the season, but he makes the most of the chances he gets. Gibbs sits fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and has 11 total touchdowns, 10 of which came on the ground. Moreover, he is third in yards per carry with 5.8, second in breakaway runs with 14, and first in explosive runs rating.

Josh Jacobs ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

While the majority of the field will prioritize the first two running backs listed here, and rightfully so, Josh Jacobs make for an excellent tournament play. With MarShawn Lloyd struggling with injuries and AJ Dillon on injured reserve since the beginning of the year, Jacobs has gotten all the touches he can handle in his first season with Green Bay. Jacobs has already eclipsed 200 carries on the season, ranking fourth in the NFL. Moreover, the Packers are executing over 30 run plays per game, good for sixth in the NFL. This has led to Jacobs being third in total rush yards, while averaging 4.7 yards per carry and posting eight touchdowns. If you are feeling uneasy about the Packers wide receiver carousel, the weather conditions in this one, or a combination of both, then Jacobs is your guy.

Rico Dowdle ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD)

While he is unlikely to lead the position in scoring when all three games have finished, Rico Dowdle has a ton of upside in this one. Since their bye week, the Cowboys have essentially turned the keys over to Dowdle over Ezekiel Elliott, and the former has certainly outperformed the latter. Despite the negative game scripts the Cowboys are often in due to Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury, Dowdle continues to make the best of a bad situation. He has now had double-digit carries in four straight games, including three or more targets in each appearance during that span. Moreover, the matchup against a Giants defense that has been decimated on the ground makes for an intriguing conversation surrounding the Cowboys lead running back. On the season, New York has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, including a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry. While he is not in the same category of the top running backs on this slate, Dowdle can make a case to be the best overall play in the mid range of the pricing grid.

Honorable Mentions: David Montgomery, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)

After a phenomenal season just a year ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up right where he left off. While there are many skilled players in one of, if not the best offense in the NFL, St. Brown is the heartbeat to it all. Not only does he lead the team in almost every category, but he sits fourth in the league in receptions, eighth in yards, and second in receiving touchdowns. Moreover, he leads the entire NFL with 49 catches resulting in a first down. While Jaylon Johnson has been having an amazing season for the Bears, St. Brown is the clear top option on the slate and is matchup-proof.

Pivot: CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,600 FD)

Jameson Williams ($6,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

If you cannot play St. Brown, there are plenty of other ways to get exposure to the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate. Jameson Williams missed two weeks after being suspended but has not missed a beat since coming back. Across those last three games, Williams has amassed a 12-241-1 line on 18 targets. Moreover, he ranks 4^th in the NFL in receiving yards per target, meaning he does not need a ton of looks to be productive. Williams has an average depth of target of 14.1, a 34.5% air yards share, and ranks third amongst qualified wide receivers with 2.57 fantasy points per target.

Pivot: Tyreek Hill ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

***Keenan Allen ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD)* and *Rome Odunze ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)***

It is no surprise that the Bears offense has improved in the last two weeks versus the early stages of their season. Following the firing of Shane Waldron, Thomas Brown has taken over offensive coordinator duties for one of the most intriguing offensive depth charts in the NFL. Brown, who spent three seasons under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, has yet to get a win in his new role, but this offense passes the eye test. While all three Bears wide receivers have seen an uptick in volume, most notably Rome Odunze, it is Keenan Allen that is a top option for Caleb Williams in this matchup. After a slow start to the season, Allen came alive last week, posting a 9-86-1 line on 15 targets, operating primarily out of the slot. However, Odunze also ran his fair share of routes out of the slot, slightly behind Allen.

With all three wide receivers seeing over 82% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, there is plenty of opportunity to pick on a matchup against the Lions’ slot coverage. Amik Robertson is Detroit’s primary slot corner, playing nearly 50% of the snaps and 90% of those out of the slot. This season, Robertson has allowed 1.44 fantasy points per target, including a 59.6% catch rate, leading the Lions to rank 26^th in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers.

Honorable Mentions: Malik Nabers, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD)

While he is far from a top option in an offense boasting the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Smith has been remarkable since Tagovailoa returned from injury. Over his last five games, Smith has three or more receptions in each appearance, having eclipsed 45 yards in four straight games. Moreover, he has a whopping 15 receptions and 188 yards in his last two, where he also caught three touchdowns. With the Packers having a low 20.3% blitz rate, Miami won’t be forced for extra help on their offensive line, leaving room for Smith to run more routes. The Packers rank 10^th in DVOA against tight ends, giving up a near 20% target rate and 1.67 yards per route ran.

Sam LaPorta ($4,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

Despite the falloff from a remarkable rookie season, it is hard to blame Sam LaPorta for his personal shortcomings, rather than to look at just how good everyone else in this offense has been. When your offense has two elite running backs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, you won’t be a top option every single time your team takes the field. However, LaPorta can easily be the highest scoring tight end of the slate, which you’ll need. In Detroit stacks, it will be hard to overlook a player that averages 2.49 fantasy points per target at a scarce position. Moreover, the Bears defense will have their hands full doubling St. Brown on the outside, similarly to how they did to Justin Jefferson last week, leading T.J. Hockenson to explode for seven receptions and 114 yards.

Honorable Mentions: Tucker Kraft, Theo Johnson

DST Rankings

Dallas Cowboys ($3,100 DK / $4,100 FD)
Detroit Lions ($3,500 DK / $4,700 FD)
Green Bay Packers ($2,800 DK / $4,200 FD) and Miami Dolphins ($2,700 DK / $3,900 FD)
New York Giants ($2,800 DK / $3,700 FD)
Chicago Bears ($2,300 DK / $3,500 FD)

5 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: BALTIMORE RAVENS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 12 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a brotherly affair as the Harbaugh brothers face off for family supremacy. Besides the head coaches stealing the show, these are both very good football teams that are battling for seeding in the AFC Playoffs. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Ravens and Chargers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total in Baltimore -2.5 and 51 points. That is a perfect recipe for a back and forth game which adds many players into our pool.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Running Back

Until last night, the Ravens had the NFL’s leading rusher in Derek Henry. But after Saquon Barkley’s massive SNF game, Henry is now in 2nd and a healthy 207 yards away from the Eagles RB. But that doesn’t overshadow the amazing season that Henry is having at age 30. The Ravens RB is averaging 107 yards per game rushing and has scored a TD in all eleven games this season. He’s proving that there is a lot more left in his tank.

As for the Chargers rush D, they allow the 10th least rushing yards per game in the league at 110.5. And heading into Week 12, they allowed the 3rd lowest fantasy points per game to RB’s. But advanced metrics do see some weak points in those stats as PFF ranks the Chargers 12th in rush defense and DVOA has LA at 15th.

One thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers injury report tonight. LB Denzel Perryman is listed as out. And edge rush Khalil Mack is questionable. That leaves the front seven somewhat thin and vulnerable to a viscous running attack like the one Baltimore deploys.

Also in play is Justice Hill. The 2nd string RB for the Ravens saw a 49% snap usage in Week 11 which was tied with Henry. The game script led to that but it is worth noting as Baltimore has sat Henry for long stretches in previous games too.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Punt:

Wide Receiver

The Ravens have the 4th highest run/pass ratio in the NFL. They will still beat you in the air, but their preferred offensive strategy is to beat you with the legs of Henry, Jackson and Hill. And I honestly believe that could be the strategy tonight as the Chargers have a solid pass rush and defense. The Chargers have the 4th highest pass coverage rating in the NFL according to PFF. And DVOA ranks the Chargers as the 6th best pass D. A lot of that is due to DB’s Kristian Fulton and Tarheeb Still who rank in the top 25 in pass defense this season.

Ultimately, the Ravens do have speed at WR and we saw that produce big problems for the Chargers last week against the Bengals. They were beat deep on several occasions and I see the Ravens trying to take those shots tonight too. The main producer is Zay Flowers, and he is fully in play for all slates. But Rashod Bateman has been a consistent #2 and has led the Ravens in target shares in three games this season. He’s also second on the team with 4 TD receptions.

Tier 1: Zay Flowers

Tier 2: Rashod Bateman

Punts: Nelson Agholor (deep threat who could see one to two opportunities)

Tight End

Since Week 4, Mark Andrews has stepped up his game. He’s averaging 3.8 catches and 44.7 yards per game in that stretch. More importantly, he’s scored 5 TD’s in those 7 games. Isaiah Likely is also in play as he returned with a big outing last week in Pittsburgh, hauling in 4 catches for 75 yards.

The Chargers have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to TE’s this year. They shut out Mike Gesicki from the Bengals last week. And they haven’t allowed at TD to TE’s this year.

While we’ll all be tempted to snag a Ravens TE, I am probably going to fade this position for the most part and focus on the running attack and 1-2 WR’s.

Tier 1: Mark Andrews

Tier 2: Isaiah Likely

Punt/Fadeable:

LA CHARGERS

Running Back

The way to attack the Ravens is through the air. Baltimore allows just 77.5 yards per game on the ground which is 2nd best in football. This could be due to their terrible pass D and teams tend not to run (2nd lowest attempts in league). But the advanced metrics also like Baltimore’s run D as they rank 3rd overall in PFF and 6th in DVOA.

The Chargers do have a solid rushing attack but I believe it is closer to a shared backfield than last week’s stats will show. JK Dobbins hardly touched the ball but got to his numbers with a late TD run. Gus Edwards was the back on the field early in the game. And for some idiotic reason, Hasaan Haskins has seen four goal line carries in the past 2 weeks.

I’d tread carefully here against a really good Ravens D. My preferred option is Edwards but I don’t have high confidence in any of them. Even if it is a revenge match.

Tier 1: JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Tier 2: Hasaan Haskins

Wide Receiver

As we mentioned earlier, you attack Baltimore through the air. They prefer man-to-man and frankly, they don’t do it well. Teh Ravens allow the most yards passing per game at 284.5. Additionally, they allow the most fantasy points to WR’s.

Ladd McConkey is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. So we have to keep an eye on that. But Quentin Johnson is the one to keep a tighter eye on. He has 6 TD catches this season and has recorded a touchdown catch in each of the last three games. He’s the deep threat in this offense as he saw eight targets last week.

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnson

Tier 2: Josh Palmer

Cheap Options: Derius Davis

Tight End

Will Dissly had a huge game last week going for 4 catches and 80 yards against the Bengals. No surprise here, but Baltimore is bad against TE’s too. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to that position coming into Week 11.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry or Justin Herbert. The QB’s look to have the best upside based on the opposing defenses weaknesses. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson

FDMVP Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey

FDMVP Tier 3: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert

DK CPT Tier 2: Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers

DK CPT Tier 3: Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly, Justice Hill

DK CPT Punt: Mark Andrews, Josh Palmer

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have two QB’s who can attack the other defense. I expect a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson running the ball. Also, you may have heard but he’s awesome on Prime Time games.
Don’t sleep on Justin Herbert. He faces the worst pass defense in the league. He lit up the Bengals last week who look like the Steel Curtain compared to the Ravens.
Derek Henry scores TD’s. And to keep the Chargers pass rush at arms length, I expect the Ravens to use a heavy does of Henry tonight. I LOVE him in all spots but we have to find a way to fit him in with LJack on most lineups.
Ladd McConkey is an impressive rookie. If he plays, he’ll be my favorite Chargers WR.
Quentin Johnson is seeing the field and a high rate of targets. He has a chance to break the slate.
I’m fading the defenses tonight.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
Keep an eye on Nelson Agholor. I think the Ravens will take 1-2 deep shots to a cheap option.
Justice Hill is a copy cat of Chase Brown. And we saw Brown have a big game last week against LA. If fading Henry, put Hill in your lineup. I don’t like both in the same lineup.

Favorite prop for the game:

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Ivan Herrera 6 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Week 11 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Eagles take on the Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Philadelphia Eagles

Running Back

The Rams have given up 1008 rushing yards (15th Most in NFL)
They have given up 344 receiving yards to running backs (16th Most)
Giving up 21.6 DK to running backs (10th Fewest)

Don’t overthink the Eagles running back room. There is only one player I am locking in from this position and that is Saquon Barkley. The only reason not to use Barkley this week is if you are playing Hurts and expecting him to vulture all the rushing touchdowns via the tush push.

Between Barkley’s two backups, Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley, I would only use Gainwell. He has played 28% of the Eagles snaps over the past three games and has 98 total yards on 19 touches in that span. For his $3K price on DraftKings, he is worth a punt. As for Shipley, I am staying far away from him. In the past three weeks, he has a game with one snap and another with no snaps played. Unless Barkley or Gainwell get hurt or the game is a blowout in the 2nd half, he shouldn’t see an uptick in his workload.

Tier 1: Saquon Barkley

Tier 2: Kenneth Gainwell

FADE: Will Shipley

Wide Receiver

The Rams have allowed 1484 yards to opposing wide receivers (16th Most).
They are giving up 35.7 DK (11th Most).

With DeVonta Smith being ruled out for this game on Saturday, the main guy for the Eagles becomes AJ Brown. Brown is my favorite of the Philly wide receivers as he leads the team in Targets/Route run. He sees a target on 27.4% of his routes and now that Smith will not be available he should see a slight uptick on that number. He should see a lot of Cobie Durant on Sunday who is allowing a target to opposing wide receivers in 15% of the routes covered. Durant is also giving up .21 fantasy points per route which is near the higher end of points allowed which bodes well for Brown who is averaging .59 FP/RR. Brown will be my main Eagle wide receiver.

After Brown, the Eagles wide receiver room gets a bit rough. On paper, the number two receiver should be Jahan Dotson but over the past three weeks, he has four total targets which is only one above the likes of Ainias Smith. I have no issue if you want to play Dotson but I think for a Showdown slate I would rather take my shot with Johnny Wilson. On DraftKings, he is $2K cheaper at only $800 so he doesn’t need much to pay off this game. Also what I like about Wilson is his size, he has seen more plays in the red zone. With his big body, he can serve as a tight end option for Hurts when they get close to the end zone.

Britain Covey and Smith are the other wide receivers for the Eagles. I don’t want much of either but like I mentioned above with Dotson, Smith has seen some targets the past three weeks so you can use him as a punt play in larger entries as a pivot off of Wilson.

Tier 1: AJ Brown

Tier 2: Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson

Punts/Fades: Britain Covey, Ainias Smith

Tight End

The Rams have given 623 receiving yards to tight ends (8th Most).
They are giving up 14.6 DK (7th Most).

I love Dallas Goedert this week for Showdown especially with the Eagles being down Smith. Goedert is top three on the Eagles in receptions (31), targets (37), and yards (387). He also has a receiving touchdown this season. Being priced in the midrange of the slate at $6400 on DraftKings lets you fit him into lineups with Barkley and/or Brown. I am not too worried about him losing work to backup Grant Calcaterra. Thanks to Goedert missing a couple of weeks earlier in the season Calcaterra has more snaps than him, but in games with both active Goedert has 115 more snaps.

Tier 1: Dallas Goedert

Punt/Fade: Grant Calcaterra

Los Angeles Rams

Running Back

Philadelphia is giving up 18.5 DK per game (6th Fewest).
They have allowed 843 rushing yards (8th Fewest).
They have allowed 362 receiving yards (13th Most).

I’ll be honest, I am not the biggest fan of the Rams’ running back room against the Eagles for Showdown. The lead back for the Rams is Kyren Williams who has begun to struggle the past three weeks. He has failed to find the end zone over his last 82 carries with his last rushing touchdown coming halfway through the 3rd quarter against the Raiders in Week 7. I won’t fade Williams but I will not have as much of him as I normally would. The passing game of the Rams is what I’d rather focus on.

With how good the Eagles are against the run, I am not rostering Blake Corum unless I am maxing out a 150 where maybe you can get a handful of shares of him. He has had consistent touches the past few games but even at $2400 on DraftKings, I don’t see much value with him.

Tier 1: Kyren Williams

FADE/Punt: Blake Corum

Wide Receiver

The Eagles have given up 1165 receiving yards to wide receivers (Fewest in NFL).
They are giving up 28.1 DK to receivers (6th Fewest).

On paper, the Eagle’s defense has been one of the best against wide receivers, but luckily the games aren’t played on paper. The Rams have enough wide receiver threats that they should have some success against the Eagles. Let’s start with the hottest Rams wide receiver over the past two games, Puka Nacua. Puka has 16 receptions for 221 yards and a touchdown in the past two weeks. Puka has been one of the best wide receivers this season, his .6 fantasy points per route run is only behind Nico Collin’s .63 and St.Brown’s .66 this season. His 3.13 Yards per route run is also third only behind Collins and AJ Brown. He should see a lot of Darius Slay today but I am not worried about the matchup as Puka has been great against every defender since joining the league.

The other main guy for the Rams is Cooper Kupp. Kupp has also been hot the past few weeks averaging eight receptions for 96.7 yards and has scored twice in the past two weeks. I like Kupp’s matchup this week against Cooper DeJean. DeJean is allowing the most fantasy points (.22) and yards (.85) per route run of all of the Eagle’s corners. Kupp is only averaging .01 fantasy points less than his teammate Kupp which puts him as the fourth highest FPRR. Of the two big Rams wide receivers, I am leaning toward Kupp as my main player over Puka.

Demarcus Robinson should get a couple of targets this game as well. Since Puka and Kupp have returned, he is averaging 5.3 targets which is third on the team in that span. He is one of the better lower mid-salary players on the slate.

Tier 1: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua

Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson

Punt: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

The Eagles have given up 396 receiving yards to tight ends (6th Fewest).
They are allowing 9.4 DK per game (5th Fewest).

I am almost a complete fade for the Rams tight ends this week in the SE and lower entry contest. Since Kupp and Puka returned to the field, the Rams tight ends are only averaging 3.5 targets per game between all of them. Davis Allen has had more snaps than Colby Parkinson in the last few games but outside of his six-target game two weeks ago he reallyhasn’t done much with the workload. Then you combine that with how good the Eagles have been against tight ends, it’snot something I want to target too much. The only SE lineup I am fitting either tight end in is those with multiple plays from this group; Barkley/Brown/Puka/Kupp.

Tier 1: Davis Allen, Colby Parkinso

Punt/Fade: Hunter Long

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: AJ Brown

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: AJ Brown, Cooper Kupp

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, Jalen Hurts

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Matthew Stafford

DraftKings CPT Punt: Dallas Goedert, Joshua Karty

Flex Tier 1:

AJ Brown
Cooper Kupp
Saquon Barkley
Puka Nacua
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford
Dallas Goedert
Joshua Karty
Kyren Williams
Demarcus Robinson
Jake Elliott

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

Eagles D/ST
Rams D/ST
Johnny Wilson
Jahan Dotson
Blake Courm
Davis Allen
Tutu Atwell
Colby Parkinson
Grant Calcaterra
Ainias Smith

Favorite prop for the game: Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

6 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 12

David Jones 6 months ago

written by David Jones

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays

Sunday Updates:

Terry McLaurin gains some steam with Trevon Diggs
Moving Mike Evans down a bit
Play Abdullah if you want. Salary makes sense.

Quarterback Rankings

Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold: favorite low-owned, large-field GPP QB. High risk.
Bo Nix
Drake Maye
Tommy DeVito: You don’t need Malik Nabers if you have Tommy DeVito, you need Tommy DeVito if you have Malik Nabers. $4K is hard to say no to.

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt

Last week, I was high on him, and he busted, but I will go right back in the nuts matchup against the Carolina Panthers. They have allowed a league-most rushing TDs (14) in just ten games. I would have even considered him if Isiah Pacheco was in, but now that he is confirmed, you can feel confident that Hunt exceeds value here. Nothing has changed with the Mahomes passing game. They still don’t have enough reliable bodies to throw it, too, and they won’t need to. The Chiefs are up against a short week (another reason Pacheco is out), so they might as well just run Kareem Hunt into the ground and keep the rest of the guys healthy for the day after the Thanksgiving game against the Raiders.

Brian Robinson

We just touched on the league’s worst rush defense, but the Cowboys are making a case for it by season’s end. They now allow the second most rushing TDs (13) in just 10 weeks. The teams with the next most rushing TDs allowed (NO, JAX, WAS, CIN) all have played 11 games, and three are not even on the slate. Robinson is priced right next to Kareem Hunt, and they are both clearly in the best spots on the slate. They will be popular af but it makes perfect sense. If you want to get different for ownership’s sake, I would be overweight rather than under.

Others to consider:

If you want to spend up on CMC or Joe Mixon, I can’t really talk you off of it.

De’Von Achane
Kenneth Walker
James Conner
Tyrone Tracy
Rhamondre Stevenson
Bucky Irving
Audric Esteme (he still made the Milly Maker winner last week, and if his number is called randomly by Sean Payton this week, then he will do it again)

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans

The Giants were the worst team against the WR1 in week 11 (that are on the slate). Mike Evans will clearly be the WR1 and, if 100%, could easily break double-digit targets. Todd Bowles said that as long as he is 100% (paraphrasing), he will be out there. The Giants allow the most production in the league to the deep left side of the field. Guess who runs on the left more than any other Buccaneers receiver? Mike Evans.

Josh Downs

This guy has been on a heater, no matter who the quarterback is. He has been piling up receptions while scoring twice in the past four games. His salary is only $6,200 in a game where the Colts should certainly be trailing the Lions. Due to gamescript, the Lions are the most targeted secondary in the league while also giving up the most receptions. They allow the 4^th most fantasy points to receivers (39.8), trailing only the Ravens, Vikings, and Jaguars. Josh Downs has the 4^th highest target percentage in the league (for starters) while only being behind Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers. He is ahead of guys like Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That is a pretty good case for Downs to get high consideration in your main build.

Minnesota Vikings Receivers

Everyone is scared to target the Bears secondary, but they have been slipping a bit lately. Last week, they allowed Christian Watson to get 150 yards while Jordan Love threw for 261 yards and one passing TD. The Bears ranked 30^th against the WR2 that week while ranked 10^th against the WR1. When you look at the cornerbacks for the Bears, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon allow the first and second most yards per route run on the entire slate. That was shocking to see. I know they are both “good” corners, but those numbers are concerning, and I doubt anyone else is pointing this out. Justin Jefferson will see some Jaylon Johnson, but it isn’t a shadow situation. This lines up great for him, as well as for Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor. Not to mention that Hockenson is back, giving Sam Darnold plenty of options. The Vikings are my sneaky stack of the week in large-field GPPs.

Adam Thielen

He will get the majority of the slot routes in a game the Panthers will be trailing. I have heard people chattering that the Panthers should run the young receivers to see what they have, which they will, but Thielen will also be highly involved. Bryce Young isn’t worried about showing off the new toys. This guy is worried about keeping his job. The best thing he can do is what has worked before, which is feeding Adam Thielen.

Tyreek Hill

Patriots stand-out corner Christian Gonzalez is questionable. If he is out, Hill would be in the position to put up a vintage big day. If he is in, I would pump the breaks on Hill just a touch. The Patriots were 26^th against the WR1 in Week 11, and Gonzalez being out isn’t going to make that number any better.

Courtland Sutton

Perhaps the most obvious mispricing of the week.

Note:

Other Good Options:

Nico Collins: in contention for the WR1 on the slate, will avoid the slot against the Titans, which they defend better than the outside where Collins operates
Marvin Harrison
DK Metcalf > JSN
Terry McLaurin
Jayden Reed/Christian Watson – no one knows where it is going to go consistently in Green Bay, but these are the top two options.
Jameson Williams
Alec Pierce (leads the slate in Air-Yards)
Calvin Ridley (I loved him last week and had TD called back; he will continue to get the targets)
Demario Douglas/Kendrick Bourne
Sterling Shepard (better if Evans happens to be out; fine large field GPP either way)

Tight End Rankings

Value: Luke Schoonmaker

Sam LaPorta

Ok, $4,300 is way too low for Sam LaPorta. The Colts allow the 6^th most fantasy points and 3^rd most receptions to the position. The Lions spread it around to everyone and are the highest-scoring offense in the league, putting up 33 points per game.

Theo Johnson

The Buccaneers have been poor against the Tight End. They are ranked 30^th in DVOA against TE. At the same time, allowing the 5^th most fantasy points to the position. Johnson comes in at only $2,700 on DraftKings and may benefit from increased check-downs from the Giants QB2.

Brock Bowers
Travis Kelce
Trey McBride
Cade Otton
Spann-Ford as a Schoonmaker pivot

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Twelve

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Another week with high hopes went south as we went just 2-2 overall. But we once again hit on our Prime-Time games with winners on MNF with the Texans and on TNF with the Jameis Winston led Cleveland Browns. The public had a solid week, winning over 50% of the games. But I still see opportunities this week to fade the general consensus, as witnessed with the Browns on Thursday.

As for Survivor, we are still cooking in the main contest as a Detroit victory was sealed by the end of the 1st Q. This week brings a few options to use unpopular teams and we’re going to have to roll the dice as the pool of available teams is getting thinner by the week.

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

We’re going back to the Bears this week as they paid us off last week with a cover against their hated rivals in the Packers. I’m still not a believer of Sam Darnold and think this Bears D can present some real problems for him. The Vikings typically play the Bears well, as they have won five of the last six contests. However, the Bears won the last game they played, stunning the Vikings and creating 4 turnovers along the way. The Vikings come into this game with the 5th most turnovers in the league at 17. On the other side, the Bears have created 17 turnovers and are third best in the league with a +9 differential. I believe in a modified offensive game, the Bears will win the TO battle and come out with a rare victory against their rivals from the north.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

Another thrashing by the Lions as they pummeled the Jaguars 52-6 last week and outgained them by almost 500 yards. The Lions have done this before, and in the following week had tough games. In Week 6 they beat Dallas by 38 only to squeak out a win in Week 7 over Minnesota by 2 points. They are clearly the betting public’s favorite team right now which makes this spot dangerous. Detroit is seeing 82% of the bets on the spread and 72% of the money.

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants are one of the most poorly managed franchisees in all of sports. The fact that they cut QB Daniel Jones is crazy. But then they simply skipped over their #2 QB in Drew Lock and handed the ball to a manufactured gimmick in Tommy Devito is more crazy. I’m banking on the Bucs rest combined with the Giants situation to be keys to fuel Tampa to victory. The addition of Mike Evans is also a key component to this game as the Giants rank 24th against the pass according to DVOA.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m not sure if the Seahawks are back. But they did display grit and determination last week in their comeback win against the 49ers. The interesting point is this was coming off the bye week where they had some interesting moves, including a sudden retirement of their starting center, Connor Williams, at the young age of 27. What it told me is that rookie HC Mike MacDonald took a global view of this team and instituted major changes. And the biggest move was their philosophy change in the passing game. Seattle led the league in pass ratio prior to the bye but came out of Week 11 with a 58% rate. They were at 66% for the season coming into that game. This is a key in handicapping this game as Arizona allows 127.5 rushing yards per game, 13th highest in the NFL.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Jayden Daniels hasn’t looked great of late, but he hasn’t played for 10 days so I expect to see the best version of him. And has anyone seen the Cowboys play of late? They can’t stay within 20 points of teams.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: HOUSTON TEXANS at DALLAS COWBOYS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of Texas as the Cowboys and Texans square off in Big D. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between Houston and Dallas. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a rather high point spread and low game total; Houston -7 and 41. This brings into play both kickers and a defense. It also may put stronger emphasis on TD scorers vice high volume cacthers.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Running Back

The Texans average 119.4 yards/game on the ground, which is good 14th best in football. Conversely, they are just 23rd in run blocking grading and 24th in rush offense DVOA. So even though the yards are decent, they aren’t a very productive running team. But the good news is, they get a chance to improve those numbers tonight as they face the 27th rated rush defense according to DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 152.1 and the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.

So that means we are in full Joe Mixon mode tonight. He’s got the best possible matchup an RB could have besides facing the Carolina Panthers. And while Micah Parsons did return last week, the Boys still got pummeled on the ground allowing 187 rushing yards to the Eagles (130 of that to RB’s). As for Mixon, he received 76% of the snaps last week and 27 of the 28 touches to RB’s. The latter was the second highest for any RB in Week 10. He’s clearly the workhorse and will see the lion’s share of touches tonight.

RB Dameon Pierce returns for the Texans tonight. He’s been out the last two weeks with a groin injury. But in the three weeks he’s suited up to backup Mixon, he’s received just 6 carries total. So I don’t deem him as a threat to stealing away touches from Mixon and I will not consider him in my lineups bases on other value we can find.

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Tier 2: N/A

Punt: Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver

The big news for the Texans tonight is the return of WR Nico Collins. Their star WR has been out since week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was activated last week but sat out for precautionary reasons. Reports out of Houston are saying he’s fully healthy and should have no restrictions on routes. On the year, Nico is averaging 23.1 fantasy points, which puts him 2nd in the NFL behind only Ja’Marr Chase. So he’s obviously a targeted player for us.

Tank Dell has 15 catches in the past 3 weeks. He’s clearly the #2 in Houston and could have a big game depending how Dallas decides to cover Nico.

John Metchie was the big winner of the secondary Texans WR”s as he racked up 6 targets in Week 10, en route to 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD.

Xavier Hutchinson will likely fall back to 4th WR duty. He will only provide value if he gets in the endzone as his snap count is projected under 30%.

Tier 1: Nico Collins

Tier 2: Tank Dell, John Metchie

Punts: Xavier Hutchinson

Tight End

The TE position has been a mysterious void for the Texans this year. Dalton Schultz has just 29 receptions and 310 yards in 10 games. And he’s yet to find the endzone. The Cowboys have defended TE’s quite well, allowing the 7th least receiving yards to that position. If they’ve had any issues, it’s the endzone as they’ve allowed 4 TD’s to TE’s (T-8th most). But as we see with Schultz’s stats, the Texans don’t look to the TE’s in the redzone much.

If anything, Cade Stover could be an under the radar look this week. He did get one target in the redzone last

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable: Cade Stover

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys really screwed up when they didn’t go after an RB in the offseason. But after their recent embarrassing loss, and their loss of QB Dak Prescott, makes me fully believe they’ll commit to the run tonight. However, the issue is the Houston Texans are 2nd in DVOA against the run. I do think Rico Dowdle will get the majority of the carries but he’s got a very tough matchup so don’t go heavy on him.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekiel Elliott

Wide Receiver

Houston has the 2nd best defense overall. Which leads to them having the 4th best pass defense DVOA. But, they do allow yards and TD’s to WR’s making them 22nd against receivers for fantasy points. This leads to a very tough matchup for Dallas receivers. But not just because of the Texans pass D, but because Cooper Rush is trash. He threw for just 40 yards last week against the Eagles.

I do think Cee Dee Lamb is going to bounce back tonight. He can be moved around and match up against the weakest corner. Plus the Texans play zone a ton which can allow Lamb to find the soft spots.

As for the secondary receivers, the Cowboys paid a price for Mingo and he will see more snaps tonight. So I’ve moved him up into Tier 2.

Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb

Tier 2: Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo

Cheap Options: Jalen Brooks, Kevontae Turpin,

Tight End

My favorite Cowboys receiver tonight is Jake Ferguson. The Texans give up the 3rd least points to TE’s. But a tight end can be the short passer (Cooper Rush) friend.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Joe Mixon and CeeDee Lamb. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. The WR corps seem to be the best area to get our value and win the slate. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CeeDee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Nico Collins, CJ Stroud

FDMVP Tier 3: Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdel, Jake Ferguson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CJ Stroud, CeeDee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Jake Ferguson

DK CPT Tier 3: Tank Dell, Rico Dowdel, TEXANS D

DK CPT Punt: Cooper Rush

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have to dial in on a Texans star for CPT. Yes, the Cowboys could produce one but I’m more focused on choosing between Mixon, Stroud, Collins and Texans D.
Cooper Rush could be a sneaky play. He was terrible against the Eagles but was 5-1 in his previous 6 starts.
Joe Mixon is easily my favorite CPT. He has a GREAT matchup.
I have a feeling this could be a Cee Dee Lamb game.
I like Jake Ferguson as my safest option for the Cowboys receiving game.
I’m fading the Cowboys run game for the most part.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
Consider playing the Texans D on your slate tonight.
Remember, this is close to a playoff game for the Cowboys. I think it’ll be low scoring but they will hang tight. That opens you up to playing both kickers.

Favorite prop for the game:

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Ivan Herrera 6 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Week 11 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Bengals take on the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Cincinnati Bengals

Running Back

The Chargers have given up 733 rushing yards (7th Fewest in NFL)
They have given up 262 receiving yards to running backs (10th Fewest)
Giving up 17.6 DK to running backs (2nd Fewest)

With Zack Moss being put on IR early last week, Chase Brown took firm control of the running back room in Cincinnati and had all 13 carries on Thursday Night against Baltimore. Even before Moss was injured Brown was already taking over most of the work as he had 23 more carries in the four weeks leading to the injury.

Despite the Bengals going out to grab Khalil Herbert from the Bears, he failed to record a carry and was put in the dog house after a fumble. While he should see some actual carries on Sunday with an extra 10 days under his belt, he shouldn’t take too much of Brown’s workload.

With how good the Chargers have been against running backs I will be light on Brown and have almost no Herbert. I would rather use the salary on both sites on the Bengals receiving game.

Tier 1: Chase Brown

Fade/Punt: Khalil Herbert

Wide Receiver

The Chargers have allowed 1152 yards to opposing wide receivers (6th Fewest).
They are giving up 28.1 DK (7th Fewest).

Ja’Marr Chase is a lock on this slate. He is the best wide receiver on the field on Sunday and is coming off of a greatperformance where he had 264 yards and three touchdowns. He should be almost 100% owned but I would rather use him and get different elsewhere than fade him and risk another career performance.

Tee Higgins is the clear number two guy in Cincinnati. Higgins is second in targets with 45 even though he has only had targets in five games this season. Higgins gets a favorable matchup against Tarheeb Still who has given up the most FPRR (.25) and YPRR (.96) as well as the highest target percent per route ran (16.7%). With his matchup and price being almost 4K less than Chase on DK, he is a very tempting pick and someone I will have a good amount of.

The value wide receivers on the Bengals are Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton. I like both as punt plays, but I wouldn’t have too much of either as in games with Higgins active they average a combined 2.8 targets and have only been able to combine for one score. I would give Burton a slight nod based on being a high draft pick but there isn’t much between them.

Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase

Tier 2: Tee Higgins

Punts/Fades: Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton

Tight End

The Chargers have given 469 receiving yards to tight ends (16th Most).
They are giving up 11.3 DK (14th Most).

I like the Bengals tight ends this week for the showdown. The top tight end for them is Mike Gesicki who leads all of Cincinnati’s tight ends in yards (383), receptions (34), and touchdowns (2). Gesicki has played 51.8% of the Bengals snaps the past three games and with his $6200 price on DraftKings, he is one of my favorite plays this week.

Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson should both see work during the game as both have played over 25% of the Bengal’s snaps the previous two games. Of the two I would lean toward Hudson as he has seen 10 targets in those two weeks while Sample has only seen four which all came in Week 9.

Tier 1: Mike Gesicki

Punt/Fade: Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson

Los Angeles Chargers

Running Back

Cincinnati is giving up 20.9 DK per game (9th Fewest).
They have allowed 910 rushing yards (16th Fewest).
They have allowed 195 receiving yards (Fewest).

Gus Edwards returned to the lineup after not playing a snap since Week 4, but he was still out-snapped by JK Dobbins who took full control of the backfield in Edwards’s absence. A healthy Edwards will take some snaps away from Dobbins, but I don’t expect Dobbins to lose the starting role so he is my main Charger running back for Showdown. The Bengals have been good against running backs in fantasy because they don’t allow them to have success in the passing game, ranking top 10 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns against. With Dobbins not showing much use in the passing game, I don’t think that will affect him. But just like the Bengals run game, I would rather focus on the Chargers passing game.

Tier 1: JK Dobbins

Tier 2: Gus Edwards

Wide Receiver

The Bengals have given up 1505 receiving yards to wide receivers (9th Most).
They are giving up 34.5 DK to receivers (13th Most).

If we are going to talk about Chargers wide receivers there is only one lad to start with and that is Ladd McConkey.McConkey is leading the Chargers in targets (54), receptions (37), yards (492), and YPRR (2.04). He doesn’t get the best matchup having to face Mike Hilton for the majority of the game. Hilton is holding opposing receivers to .94 YPRR. With his price and the matchup, I will have slightly less McConkey than his teammate Quentin Johnston.

Johnston is finally looking like the TCU version of him that made him a high-draft pick. In the past two games, he has six receptions on seven targets for 142 yards and two scores. He gets a great matchup against Cam Taylor-Britt who is near the top of FPRR allowed by a CB. With the difficult matchup for McConkey, I can see Herbert looking a bit more at Johnston than he has coming into the game.

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quetin Johnston

Tier 2: Joshua Palmer

Punt: Jalen Reagor, DJ Chark

Tight End

The Bengals have given up 598 receiving yards to tight ends (6th Most).
They are allowing 15.4 DK per game (5th Most).

Will Dissly has been the main tight end threat for the Chargers leading the team in receptions (33) and yards (272). He is priced at $5200 on DraftKings which makes him a solid mid-range play. With the Bengals struggling to contain tight ends, I will have a good amount of Dissly. He should play the majority of snaps as he has played over 50% of snaps every game since the bye week.

Hayden Hurst and Eric Tomlinson should be the other two tight ends that will see some snaps during the game. But even with their price, they are nothing more than punts in larger fields. Since the bye week these two have only combined for five targets which is 27 less than Dissly in that span. I would say keep them out of your main lineup.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Punt/Fade: Hayden Hurst, Eric Tomlinson

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Joe Burrow, JK Dobbins

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Justin Herbert, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Joe Burrow, JK Dobbins

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Justin Herbert, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

DraftKings CPT Punt: Ladd McConkey, Mike Gesicki

Flex Tier 1:

Jamaar Chase
Joe Burrow
JK Dobbins
Justin Herbert
Tee Higgins
Chase Brown
Mike Gesicki
Ladd McConkey
Quentin Johnston
Will Dissly
Evan McPherson
Cameron Dicker

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

Joshua Palmer
Chargers D/ST
Bengals D/ST
Tanner Hudson
Gus Edwards
Jermaine Burton
Andrei Iosivas
Drew Sample
Khalil Herbert
Hayden Hurst
Eric Tomlinson

Favorite prop for the game: Tee Higgins Over Receiving Yards 56.5 (-115)

6 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 11

David Jones 6 months ago

written by David Jones

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.

Quarterback Rankings

Geno Smith
Jameis Winston
Jared Goff: Ranking the top three QB’s was difficult. Fine with any of them depending on your receiver builds.
Sam Darnold
Bo Nix
Drake Maye

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt

The Buffalo Bills give up the most fantasy points to running backs (30.3 per game) on the slate. They have been decent at stopping the run, allowing just the 15^th most rush yards per game (123 yards), which has improved over the last three games (100 yards per game). They have also only allowed five rushing TDs. The real damage comes in the passing game to running backs. They have been targeted a league-high 84 times (10 games), allowing also a league-high receptions (66) and receiving yards (545). They are also tied with the Titans for the most receiving TDs, allowing to backs (5). This lines up great for Kareem Hunt, who is a talented pass catcher, coming off a 10-target game, while the Chiefs lack reliable receivers in what has the potential to be a shootout. Hunt’s salary is still suppressed at $6,700; if he scores (which I think he does), you will have to have him.

De’Von Achane

He is most likely the first guy in your lineup. He is still way underpriced on DraftKings for his role as a lead back and top receiving target in the Dolphins offense. The matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who travel across the country to South Beach, is just too good to ignore. The Raiders are 29^th in DVOA against the run while giving up 26.7 fantasy points per game to the position.

Audric Estime

We saw Estime get the Lion’s share of the work against the Chiefs last game as the RB1. This came after the coaching staff said they were “going to give him a look”, in the press. This week Sean Payton was quoted saying “I was encouraged, He’ll continue to get more reps. While Joe Lombardi said, “If he keeps running the ball the way he did, It appears (he will continue to be the lead back)”. Estime is only $4,500 on DraftKings, so getting anything north of 10 carries would be a solid price tag for him. Atlanta has made some improvement stopping the run but is still ranked 19^th in DVOA against the run. They have only allowed two rushing TDs on the season, which I was surprised to see, however, I am still willing to take a shot in GPPS to see what Estime has in the tank.

Nick Chubb

You take a shot on Chubb at $6,000 as a buy-low opportunity going against the Saints that allows the most rushing TDs (12) on the slate. That’s all there is to it. He has not looked like his old self over the past three weeks so that certainly is concerning. However, against the Bengals, he was just being eased back in and his last two weeks against the Ravens and Chargers were no easy matchup. If you play Nick Chubb this week you are simply buying the dip here before he breaks out against a very beatable opponent in New Orleans.

Christian McCaffrey

He is my second preference behind De’Von Achane. If you can fit him, load him up.

Others to consider:

Jahmyr Gibbs
Alvin Kamara
Kenneth Walker
Rhamondre Stevenson
David Montgomery

Wide Receiver

Cedric Tillman

The volume for Tillman, at $5,300 on DraftKings is too hard to ignore. He is averaging 10 targets per game ever since Jameis Winston took over and draws a solid matchup against the Saints. New Orleans showed life last week against Atlanta, but that will be difficult to sustain with the loss of Marshon Lattimore. They allow the 7th most fantasy points to receivers on the year while being ranked 26th against the WR2. It is debatable if Tillman is the WR1 (who the Saints have played very well) or the WR2, but we have to remember this isn’t the same Saints secondary they had with Lattimore. Expect Jameis Winston to come out slinging in the Super Dome and for Tillman to be the key beneficiary.

George Pickens

The Ravens are the worst team in the league defending the wide receiver, particularly on deep passes. They give up 47 fantasy points per game to the position (which was inflated after last week’s massive showing by Ja’Marr Chase). They have allowed the most receiving TDs (16) and total receiving yards (1992), which is over 200 more than the next worst team (Lions). Pickens is going to be Russell Wilson’s first look, and although his price tag has gone up, he is still a solid click in your DFS lineups (maybe more so in cash than GPP)

Calvin Ridley

Don’t look now but Calvin Ridley is back. He is coming off a two-TD game against a very difficult Chargers secondary. With DeAndre Hopkins out of town, Will Levis has been fighting for his job just forcing his top receiving option to the football for three weeks straight. Ridley has put up double-digit points in the past three weeks, assisted by pure volume. The game script here calls for plenty of passing from the Titan’s offense. The Vikings have allowed a lot of receivers production (3^rd most fantasy points to the position) in similar game scripts particularly to start the season.

Jameson Williams

The Lions being without Sam LaPorta helps everyone on the offense. Williams finds himself in a particularly interesting spot being priced as a mid-tier receiver who moves all over the field in a very exploitable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The trio of Tyson Campbell, Jarrian Jones, and Ronald Darby, have been one of the worst secondaries in the league and now face a top two-offense lead by Jared Goff back in the Dome in Detroit. You are getting a touchdown out of at least three Lions, and Williams is in as good of a spot (salary considered) as all of them.

Garrett Wilson

Nothing has changed for this Jets offense. They keep losing, but Aaron Rodgers is going to continue to force-feed his guys. Wilson draws the best primary matchup this week against Jaylon Jones, while Davante Adams is dealing with a wrist injury (although expected to play).

Jauan Jennings

He gets the majority of the slot routes for the 49ers. George Kittle is unlikely to play meaning Purdy should push it to Jennings, Pearsall, and Samuel at a slightly higher rate. Jennings’s salary is more palatable than the Deebo Samuels, giving him a slight edge over the other San Francisco pass catchers.

Additional Underpriced options:

Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins
Patriots receivers

Others to consider/mix in MME

Cooper Kupp: Christian Gonzalez should shadow Puka Nacua
Justin Jefferson
Zay Flowers
Tre Tucker

Tight End Rankings

Dawson Knox: Increased opportunity, low salary, facing the worst team in the league defending the tight end.
David Njoku
Mark Andrews
Taysom Hill
Hunter Henry
Davis Allen: Emerging TE1 for Matt Stafford at only $2,500

A lot of these injuries we will be discussing on the livestream tomorrow.

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Eleven

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We’re on fire when it comes to Prime Time games, winning all 3 standalone games last weekend and then taking down last night’s game between the Commanders and Eagles. The problem is, I couldn’t come through on the Sunday day games and we’re still below 0.500. But the hot streak is coming and no better time than now. This weekend has so many huge games, with none bigger than Kansas City at Buffalo. So let’s enjoy the best weekend of the NFL season and make some money along the way.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re still alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Chargers. We’re still alive and keep it rolling this week.

NFL BETS WEEK 11 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 21-24-1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The symmetry in this game is mind boggling. Let start with the Browns and Jameis Winston. In his first start, just 3 weeks ago, the Browns upset the Ravens. They used the energy from the QB change to propel themselves to victory. Unfortunately, the energy dissipated in his second start and the Browns fell to the Chargers.

The Saints had maximum energy last week after a coaching change as interim HC Darren Rizzi won his first game in an upset of the Falcons last week. Everyone saw Rizzi’s energy, and the Saints were fueled by that. But here is game two under the new HC, and can they continue that high level of play. Or is a letdown inevitable, just like we saw with the Browns and Jameis in their 2nd game.

There’s also the motivation of Jameis Winston coming back to New Orleans to play a game. Winston played the last 4 years for the Saints and had some memorable moments. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a bye week and have had time to prepare for the Saints. For those reasons, and the expected letdown coming from NO following a great emotional victory, and I like the Browns to take home a W in a battle of last place teams in their respective divisions.

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Broncos, like many other teams, had the Chiefs down and out. But somehow, the Chiefs won in miracle fashion, again, and sent the Broncos to their 5th defeat of the season. However, we need to take away from that game the competitiveness of the Broncos and how they are much closer to being a contender than being a pretender. Bo Nix has continued to improve, throwing for 5 TD’s and just 1 INT over the past four weeks.

On the other hand, Atlanta is a smoke and mirrors type team. Which is typical of Kirk Cousins past seasons. The Falcons lead the division at 6-4, but are just +2 in point differential. They are 5-2 in one score games this season and have been on the fortunate side of some good breaks. But as we saw in NO last week, those types of good breaks don’t last forever.

To me, Denver is the better team. And playing in the mile high altitude is difficult for opponents. Especially ones that hardly play in Denver like Atlanta. Give me the Broncos to pull off the win this week and stay closely packed in the AFC Wild Card race.

CHICAGO BEARS +6.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

If this game was played 3 weeks ago, when the Bears were coming off three straight wins and sitting pretty at 4-2, this spread would have likely been in Chicago’s favor. However, the last three weeks did happen, and we know Chicago has looked dreadful of late which has resulted in them being a home dog of almost a touchdown to their divisional foes, the Green Bay Packers. The point here is similar to why we liked the Dolphins up in Buffalo two weeks ago, a 7-8 point shift in a line over 3 weeks seems like too much. There’s also some data showing sharp money coming in on the Bears which is pushing it down below 6 points in some markets.

In short, the Bears D has created 16 turnovers this season which is top 5 in the NFL. This is important because they’re facing a Packers team that has thrown 10 INT’s, which is tied for 4th most in the league. I expect the Bears D to be able to give the Packers trouble and keep their offense in the game. I also expect, the change at offensive coordinator will help the Bears have a more sophisticated passing game but also utilize the running game much more. Afterall, the Bears rank as the 13th best run blocking unit per PFF. The issue is, the Bears have the 8th highest pass rate at 63%.

TENNESSEE TITANS +6 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings are sitting pretty at 7-2 and in 2nd place in the NFC North. But the football they’ve been playing of late isn’t very pretty. They are coming off an ugly 5-point victory in Jacksonville where they managed just 12 points on four FG’s. Before that, they barely squeaked by a Colts team led by Joe Flacco, who are spiraling downwards with three straight losses. And flip it one week before that where the Vikings lost by 10 to the Rams, who by the way looked abysmal this past Monday night.

They get an opportunity to get back on track today against another poor football team in the Tennessee Titans. But I see this as a spot as the Vikings are playing their 3rd road game in four weeks. And the Titans, at 2-7, will have to play this like a playoff game (or at least treat it like one) and I expect them to show some pride, similar to the Jags last week. Lastly, three of the four Titans home games have been one-score games. They play tough(er) at home and will have a shot against a Vikings team that has shown some signs of weakness of late.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): New York Jets -4

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

If you still have Detroit left, this is the perfect week to use them. Jacksonville is terrible. And Detroit just played their worst game of the season and still won. They’ll have motivation to clean it up this week and come home with a big W.

If you don’t have Detroit available, consider the Houston Texans.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL

NFL BETS WEEK 13 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 28-30-1, article plus discord game bets)

NEW YORK JETS +1 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

ARIZONA CARDINALS +3.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

DENVER BRONCOS

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD)

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000 DK / $8,000 FD)

Running Backs

Devon Achane ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD)

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD)

Josh Jacobs ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

Rico Dowdle ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD)

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)

Jameson Williams ($6,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

Keenan Allen ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) and Rome Odunze ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD)

DST Rankings

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

LA CHARGERS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

FanDuel

DraftKings

Philadelphia Eagles

Los Angeles Rams

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

HOUSTON TEXANS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

FanDuel

DraftKings

Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Chargers

NFL BETS WEEK 11 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 21-24-1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

CHICAGO BEARS +6.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

TENNESSEE TITANS +6 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): New York Jets -4

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

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