Week 16 was a step backwards as we went 1-3 in our plays. Christmas Day we saw a 1-1 record, which was admirable but we wanted more. So we have two more weeks to hit a big one and we’ll start with Saturday’s 3-game slate. Speaking of a “big one”, I posted all five bowl games on Friday and am currently sitting at 3-0. Both the other bets are trending nicely but this could be a very big day. So keep an eye on Discord on Saturday, as there are 7 bowl games for our viewing, and betting pleasure.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Packers last week which was as easy as they come.

NFL BETS WEEK 17 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 41-42-1, game bets only)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +5.5 vs LA CHARGERS

The Patriots showed fight and heart last week against Buffalo. Which is important when handicapping bad teams at the end of the season. There were rumors that HC Jerod Mayo’s job was on the line and the team couldn’t show any regression, or quit, down the stretch. If not for some timely mistakes, including a backwards pass turned to TD, the Pats may have beaten their division rivals. Which is evident of no quit.

As for the Chargers, their defense drives this train for the playoff hopeful team. But we’ve seen some holes in that unit recently, as the Chargers have fallen to 13th overall in defensive DVOA. In the last 2 weeks, they’ve allowed a total of 67 points to their opponents. Which means I have some confidence the Patriots can put up some yards and ultimately turn those into points.

Add to that New England is 4-2 ATS at home this season while LA is just 4-3 on the road SU.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS

This is a win or go home game for the Bengals. And in reality, even if they win they could be going home as they need a lot of help to make the playoffs including a win by the Chiefs in Week 18 who have nothing to play for. The scary part of betting the Bengals this year, is their defense. That unit ranks 29th in DVOA and allows the 5th most points per game at 26.2. Even with a big lead, the Bengals D has found ways to allow teams back into games.

But the good news is that side of the ball has gotten much better in recent weeks. The Bengals D has forced 9 turnovers in the last 2 games and allowed just 33 points. If they continue that trend, this offense will have enough to cover a spread that has leaked over the key number.

In desperation, I’ll take the hungrier team and the more veteran QB. Which are both wearing black and orange stripes.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +6.5 at LA RAMS

This is the game of the year in the NFC West. With the Seahawks win on Thursday night, they’ve kept pace with the Rams and forced them to win this game to clinch the Division. And ultimately, that win may not be it as they still need some help from friends. But with a loss, it would almost certainly set them up for an elimination game in Week 18 against Seattle.

If you look back at the previous game this year, you’ll see the Cardinals whooped the Rams to a tune of 41-10. It was HC Sean McVay’s second worst defeat of his career as head coach in LA. The Rams are definitely a different team since then, winning 8 of their last 10. But are they different enough to win by a touchdown over a team that beat them by 4+ TD’s?

Since the Rams defeat of the Bills, by a score of 44 to 42, the defense has stepped up allowing just 15 points in the last two games, including 0 TD’s allowed. But that has been against the likes of the 49ers (in the pouring rain) and the Jets (in the freezing cold). With weather in LA looking balmy this weekend, I see the defense reverting to the one that allowed 42 to Buffalo and 37 to Philly. Arizona is a division rival and would like nothing more than to make things messy in the NFC West. I look for the Cardinals to play spoiler and keep this one close, if not pull off an outright upset.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): N/A

SURVIVOR PICK

N/A

Will provide a pick on Sunday’s slate

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. The Saints go marching into Green Bay looking to build some momentum for 2025. While the Packers need to win to keep pace with Minnesota and Detroit as they still have a very outside shot to win the NFC North. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Green Bay is a 14-point favorite with a game total at 43. As for the weather, it will be cold at Lambeau Field as there is snow in the forecast during the day. While that should clear out by game time, the temperature will be around 30 degrees F with a windchill in the low 20’s.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Running Back

Welcome to the uncertainty of late season football. Injuries have plagued the New Orleans Saints all season long. But one position that stayed relatively healthy was running back. That was until last week when star RB Alvin Kamara came up with a leg injury which will keep him out of tonight’s game.

New Orleans will turn the starting duties over to RB Kendre Miller tonight. Miller has had a precarious time with the Saints, as he’s often been injured which brought out some telling comments from his coaches and players earlier this year. The talented runner from TCU will have his chance to show the talent that attracted the Saints to draft him in the 3rd round in 2023. He’s a physical runner that runs north and south.

The concern with Miller tonight is twofold. First, he’s not a great receiver. The Packers allow the 10th least rushing yards per game but the 12th most fantasy points to RB’s. That’s due in part to them allowing the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s, including the 6th most receptions at 5.1 per game. That’s mainly how backs get points on this Packers D. Secondly, durability is a concern for me as Miller has often been injured in his career. I’m not sure he’s ready for a full workload.

Which brings us to RB #2, who is almost $6K cheaper and a more proven back; Jamaal Williams. He may also be the beneficiary of goal line touches, if the Saints get there.

Others to keep an eye on are Jordan Mims and Clyde Edward-Helaire (CEH). We’ll track this situation throughout the day.

Tier 1: Kendre Miller

Tier 2: Jamaal Williams

Punt: Jordan Mims, CEH

Wide Receiver

The Packers have been very good against WR’s this season, allowing the 4th lowest points to that position. And most of those stats have been without star CB Jaire Alexander, as he’s missed the last month due to a knee injury. The good news is, he’s listed as questionable tonight with a decent chance to play.

The Saints, on the other hand, have been devastated by injuries at WR. Their 2nd leading WR on the season, in terms of yards, is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And he joined the team in November. And he’s listed as questionable for tonight with an illness. If he’s in, he’ll be the top WR to target as he saw 78% of the snaps last week and a team high 7 targets.

As for the other receivers, Dante Pettis saw the 2nd highest number of targets with 5 last week. But he had just the 4th highest number of snaps at 26 (47%).

The receiver that saw the field the most behind MVS, was Kevin Austin who saw 74.5% of the snaps. He was only able to bring in 1 of his 3 targets but the snap count makes him a sneaky play tonight.

The other two receivers that see reps are Mason Tipton (55% of snaps) and Cedrick Wilson Jr (36% of snaps). But neither recorded a catch last week. Wilson has some upside but also plays a lot of special teams for NO which limits his offensive snaps.

Tier 1: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tier 2: Kevin Austin, Dante Pettis

Punts: Cedric Wilson Jr, Mason Tipton

Tight End

The TE’s ruled the targets last week with Haener and Rattler at QB. Combined, Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau had 6 catches for 51 yards and a TD. The Packers allow the 8th most points to TE’s so this is an area the Saints can attack. It makes sense as it aligns with the Packers second level defense being poor against RB’s in the receiving game.

The Saints ran a lot of double TE packages last week as Moreau saw 64% of snaps and Johnson saw 73%. While Moreau outpaced Johnson in the catching category, I still prefer Juwan for fantasy purposes.

Tier 1: Juwan Johnson

Tier 2: Foster Moreau

Punt/Fadeable:

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Running Back

There’s not much science to the Packers running game. It’s Josh Jacobs then hardly anyone else. Coming into Week 16, Jacobs is 11th in snaps per game for RB’s, sitting at 42.1. But he’s pushes the top of the RB list in touches, coming in at the 3rd highest behind just Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams.

The Saints have struggled against RB’s this season allowing the 10th most fantasy points. In particular, they break down at the goal line, as they’ve allowed 14 rushing TD’s which is tied for the 2nd most in the NFL. And that fits perfectly with Jacobs as he is 2nd in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns.

This is a premium spot for Jacobs and considering the weather and game script, he should be considered as your top player tonight.

Tier 1: Josh Jacobs

Tier 2:

Wide Receiver

It’s always tough to predict the Packers preferred WR week in and week out. Back in Week 14, Christian Watson led the way with 6 targets followed by Dontayvion Wicks with 5. But in Week 15, it was Jayden Reed that led the way with 6, which was tied with Watson as well. Close behind was Romeo Doubs with 5 but he converted two of those into TD’s, which were his first TD’s wince Week 5.

The Saints rank bad against the pass game too, allowing the 5th most passing yards per game and the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They’ve been particularly poor against outside receivers especially in recent weeks. Looks at these numbers just from a target/catch perspective:

• Week 15: Terry McClaurin – 10 targets/ 7 catches/ 73 yards / 2 TD
• Week 14: Malik Nabers – 10 targets / 5 catches / 79 yards / 0 TD’s
• Week 13: Puka Nacua – 8 targets / 5 catches / 56 yards / 1 TD
• Week 12: Jerry Jeudy – 11 targets/ 6 catches/ 142 yards/ 1 TD
• Week 11: Drake London – 13 targets/ 8 catches/ 97 yards/ 1 TD

So there is room to run against this Saints defensive backfield. If we truly knew who the Packers #1 was, then I’d be heavily invested in that player. But based on similarities of the receivers above, I’m going to rank Watson as my favorite followed by Reed. Romeo Doubs is too volatile as he has just two games with TD catches. And Wicks doesn’t see enough targets to be considered above Watson and Reed.

Tier 1: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed

Tier 2: Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks

Cheap Options: t

Tight End

The Saints allow the 18th most points to TE’s. It’s likely due to the other positions having big days. But Tucker Kraft is much like a WR in this offense so I consider him as a primary option tonight in your lineups. He’s scored 7 TD’s this season including two in the last three games.

Tier 1: Tucker Kraft

Tier 2: Ben Sims

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Jacobs. The QB’s are both in play as Love should have big plays available and Rattler will have to throw (and run) a lot. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft

FDMVP Tier 2: Christian Watson, Spencer Rattler

FDMVP Tier 3: Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Juwan Johnson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft

DK CPT Tier 2:  Christian Watson, Spencer Rattler

DK CPT Tier 3: Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Juwan Johnson

DK CPT Punt: Green Bay Defense

Best Rules for the slate:

• The weather will be decent for football once the snow clears out which should happen prior to kickoff. Winds are below 10 mph which will allow for passing and kicking games to be effective.
• I’ll have Josh Jacobs as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And the Saints have been bleeding yards to RB’s all year.
• For the Packers WR’s, I prefer Watson and Reed over Doubs and Wicks. The Packers do like to take shots downfield at least a few times per game. Watson should be the beneficiary of that.
• Of all the Packers receivers, Tucker Kraft is my favorite. I like him to be a big part of this offense tonight. With no Luke Musgrave (on IR), Kraft has seen an average of 90% of the snaps in the last 3 weeks. For the year, he’s seen 86% of the snaps. He also has the most receiving TD’s on the team with 7.
• For the Saints, the sneaky WR play I like is Kevin Austin. He saw almost 75% of the snaps last week and was acting as WR #2.
• The Saints TE’s should see some volume in the passing game as young QB’s often rely on them as a safety valve. Consider both Johnson and Moreau.
• My main concern with Rattler is the Saints could urn to Haener if the game gets out of control. But Rattler provides value as he gainst points with his legs; 9 rushes for 61 yards in 2 games he started.
• Green Bay Defense is a viable option tonight and one that could put up some big points against a broken down Saints offense.
• The only kicker I’ll consider is McManus as I don’t think the Saints will have many opportunities.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 15 was good for us as we posted a 3-2 record on our game bets. But yesterday wasn’t good for us in NFL as we went 0-2 backing both road dogs. On the good side, we did go 2-1 in college football yesterday so all wasn’t lost. We’re still hanging tough and staying above the red line, but we’re looking to take a big leap over the next three weeks so we can have a nice little wallet for the playoffs.

Of note, the dogs went 5-11 last week. Which is a reverse split from Week 14 when we saw the dogs rule the day. We have to assess whether this is a sign of things to come down the stretch or whether it was just an anomaly for Vegas.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Eagles last week and they came through. We’re trying to look at teams that you may not have taken yet based on schedule.

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 39-38-1, game bets only)

NEW YORK GIANTS +9 at ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons were the news story of this week as they turned the page on the Kirk Cousins experiment after only 14 games. Atlanta now hands the ball to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. The former Washington QB was picked in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft and led his team to the College Football Championship Game. He’s uber talented, and has a great set of receivers and backs to throw to in Atlanta.

The reason I’m backing the Giants today is because of the expected ramp up that is typically needed by a rookie QB. Even the great Jayden Daniels lost his first game this year when he played the Bucs. The same can be said for Bo Nix and Drake Maye. The only QB that won his first start this season was Caleb Williams but that was because Will Levis turned the ball over 3 times including a pick 6 to lose the game (Bears trailed 17-0 as well).

Giants are terrible and packing it in. But Atlanta’s defense isn’t strong enough to completely pin down the G-men. Malik Nabers is still an issue and the Giants have found some success on the ground of late. I’ll take the points today, reluctantly.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL square off today in South Florida. While both seam deflated, I’m backing the 49ers today to show up with some added motivation and play a distraction free game. For one, the incident involving their LB De’Vondre Campbell not wanting to play last week should galvanize this team. They should want to play as together as they had all season to help rid themselves of that noise and build a new foundation for 2025.

As for the Dolphins, Tua turned it over 4 times last week as the pass rush affected him greatly. San Fran still has a solid front and can create havoc along the line. Then there’s this little thing with the coaches as Mike McDonald comes from the Shannahan tree. I’ll take the teacher as the student has not shown up this season.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

The books, and me, got a little too excited by the Panthers recent play. From being a favorite versus a 5-win team, the Panthers are now a 5+ point dog against a 7-win team. This just feels like a little overreaction here to a bad game. The Cardinals haven’t been lighting it up, losers in three of their last four. And more troubling, they are 2-4 on the road SU this season. Those two wins were both by one point each so their overall point differential in those six games is -36 (they are +44 at home). I’m banking on the Panthers to return to their competitive ways and possibly pull off an outright win today in Carolina.

NEW YORK JETS +3.5 vs LA RAMS

I said I wouldn’t be the Jets again back in Week 13. But I broke that rule last week and it paid off. The reason being, the Jets are now playing with house money. Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game in years last week. Which just shows they’ve shutout the noise and are just playing football. My concern for the Rams is they are flying across the country, playing an early game, in freezing weather. Remember where Rodgers once played? Yes, cold shouldn’t be a factor. But it could for a QB that’s played his whole career in a dome and LA.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Chicago Bears +7.5 (-120)

SURVIVOR PICK

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Saints are a mess. The Packers aren’t. Do you think the Saints will be up to play in the freezing cold of Green Bay in December just 2 days before Christmas? I don’t.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We have an awesome day of football ahead of us on this last Saturday before Christmas. First, if last night’s inaugural College Football Playoff Game taught us anything, the atmosphere for the playoff games is second to none. And the pressure is definitely ramped up as we saw an Indiana team look completely overwhelmed by the moment.

As for the NFL, we have two tremendous games for our Saturday viewing pleasure as AFC heavyweights meet to determine playoff positioning.

So we’ll cover it all here and hope you can sit back and enjoy what is the most exciting day of football that we’ve seen in quite some time.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS

SMU MUSTANGS +9 at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (12pm EST)

There are several teams in this year’s playoffs that have benefited from their schedule. Obviously, Indiana was one and showed the world their metrics were weighted thanks to their weak opponents. And prior to the Big 10 title game, the same could be said of Penn State whose out of conference schedule consisted of West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State. In fact, they played two ranked opponents in the regular season, with both happening at home, and they were 1-1. Overall, Penn State ended with the 30th ranked SOS (strength of schedule).

On the other hand, SMU’s resume looks even worse. They played no teams in the top 15 this season. Their toughest game was the ACC Championship game, which they lost to Clemson. Only other ranked teams they played were Louisville and Pittsburgh, who were no higher than #18 in the polls. The Mustangs schedule was ranked 60th overall.

But the reason I’m backing the Mustangs today is twofold. First, Penn State under HC James Franklin does not perform well in high pressure situations. The Nittany Lions are 13-27 against ranked teams in Franklin’s 11 seasons as coach. They are 3-17 against top-10 teams.

But my second reason is the matchup. SMU allows just 93.4 yards rushing per game. That is 5th best in the nation. Penn State relies on the running game to open up their passing. The Lions average 202. yards per game rushing, good for 18th best in the nation. Additionally, SMU is a top 10 scoring offense and top 25 yardage offense. Penn State has played two teams ranked in the top 25 in total yardage, USC and Oregon, and they allowed a combined 75 points to those two teams. I think SMU has a strong front that can slow down Penn State and a good enough offense to stay in this game for all four quarters.

TEXAS LONGHORNS -12 vs CLEMSON TIGERS (4pm EST)

Watching Texas, they may have the most talented roster in College Football. Their issue is finishing drives and making mistakes at crucial times. They were the better team in the SEC Championship, but didn’t put Georgia away early as they settled for FG’s instead of converting them into TD’s. The Longhorns have the best defense in this playoffs and that will show today against Clemson.

The Tigers were fortunate to get into the show. It took some luck, as Syracuse knocked off Miami after being down 21 points to allow Clemson to play in the ACC Championship game. Then there’s the 57-yard FG to win the ACC. They’ll need more than luck today in Texas as they are playing a team that went toe-to-toe with everyone, including Georgia. Does anyone remember what Georgia did to Clemson earlier this year? Yeah, it was 34-3 with Clemson gaining just 188 total yards.

I know Texas got somewhat lucky with their schedule in the SEC. But they are a very good team who just loss a game they felt they should have won. I think they’ll put their best foot forward today and take out their frustrations on Clemson.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -7 vs TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (8pm EST)

There is no bigger spotlight in college football than the one pointing directly at Ohio State HC Ryan Day. After a fourth straight loss to rival Michigan, the Buckeyes leader is coaching for his life. And that’s rightfully so as he has failed to bring home the hardware, or beat their hated rival, with arguably the most talented team in the nation.

That pressure can break you or make you stronger. And for one night, I like the latter. Tennessee has a great running game but they struggle in the passing game. Ohio State was pushed around on the ground by Michigan, and many will point to that as reason to give the Volunteer’s hope. But I chalk that up to being 3 touchdown favorites and not taking their opponent seriously (which is obviously a mistake and coaching issue). That will change tonight in the big spotlight shining on the horseshoe. The Buckeyes will step up and force Tennessee to throw which will create turnovers and allow Will Smith to operate on a short field. I’m buying the Buckeyes and will back them in the biggest game of Ryan Day’s career.

NFL SATURDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1pm EST)

The Texans have been underwhelming this year, but have clinched the AFC South with a 9-5 record after 14 weeks. By clinching their spot in the postseason, they can now focus on setting up a run to New Orleans. And that starts today as they travel to the two-time defending Super Bowl Champs in Kansas City. I like the Texans to play one of their best games, specifically on defense, and keep this game close throughout. Houston allows the 4th least yards per game and 9th lowest points per game in the NFL. And KC is just 13th in points per game at 23.5. And the injury to Patrick Mahomes is a concern as the Texans rush the QB at a high rate as they rank 2nd in the NFL with 45 team sacks.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS (430pm EST)

This is a classic Mike Tomlin spot. Coming off an embarrassing defeat in Philadelphia, the Steelers are looking left for dead. No George Pickens and potentially no TJ Watt. But as a dog, Mike Tomlin thrives. He is 44-29-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Better yet, the Steelers have won 7 of the past 8 games against their bitter rivals. This is just too big of a number in one of the best division rivalries in the league.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 15 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And the NFL has brought us some early holiday gifts with two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the BEARS at the VIKINGS in the early game and the FALCONS at the RAIDERS slated for the normal MNF time slot.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The games start just 30 minutes apart with the early game kicking off at 8pm and the latter at 830pm. In reality, we’re just locking lineups 15 minutes prior to when we normally do on MNF.

The totals in the two games tonight are almost identical. We have the Bears/Vikings set at 43.5 points while the Falcons/Raiders are at 44.5 points. The point spreads are also both very close, at 7 and 6 points respectively. That’s important to note as there isn’t one game environment that Vegas predicts will be better than the other. So that’s where you sit back and read what we have to say to see where you can find an advantage.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But you can only choose one. Here’s how we rank the signal callers tonight based on projected points and value (i.e. points to salary):

KIRK COUSINS ($5500 DK) – There is a real possibility that Kirk Cousins is playing for his job tonight in Las Vegas. A loss to the lowly Raiders would be Atlanta’s fourth in a row. And to do that, I believe the Falcons need to push the ball through the air against a Raiders team that has issues on the backend. Las Vegas is 24th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 9th most fantasy points to QB’s. Add to that this should be a high paced game as the Raiders and Falcons are both in the top 10 in pace.

Then there’s the fun factor of prime-time football. There was a time when Kirk Cousins was considered a player that would struggle in prime time. He is 14-21 overall in prime-time games, but is 6-4 in his last 10. That includes three games this year where he’s 2-1. In those games, he’s thrown for 980 yards with 7 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.

SAM DARNOLD ($6600 DK) – Speaking of the blitz, Sam Darnold is the 2nd best QB in the league when facing a blitz. He has 11 TD’s to 0 INT’s. Which makes sense as his receivers are able to win one-on-one matchups when teams blitz. But he holds onto the ball at a high rate which makes him the 2nd highest sacked QB coming into Week 15.

But Darnold has been great at finding big plays. Minnesota leads the league in explosive passing plays (over 20+ yards). And the Bears are bad at stopping big plays, ranking 27th in explosive pass plays allowed.

So the points and yards are there to be had with Darnold. The only reason I rank Cousins higher is due to the $1100 discount which is big on a two game slate.

CALEB WILLIAMS ($5700 DK) – The Bears are a mess. Several late game disaster’s led to them firing HC Matt Eberflus. But the alternative looks to be even worse as Chicago laid down last week in interim HC Thomas Brown’s debut. Losing 38-13 to the San Francisco 49ers, who are a mess of their own.

However, even in defeat, which they’ve had a lot, Caleb Williams has been able to put up some decent fantasy numbers. He has five games of 23+ points on the season. He does have four duds, where he put up less than 10 points. But those were in tough conditions or versus quality pass defenses. The latter is what Minnesota is not. The Vikings allow the 3rd most passing yards in the league at 250.6. According to PFF, Minnesota is ranked 29th in pass rush and 17th in pass coverage. While they entered Week 15 with 40 sacks, good for 4th in the NFL, that is due to their propensity to blitz. The Vikings lead the NFL at a 38.7% blitz rate.

That’s where this gets interesting. We all know Caleb Williams has been sacked a lot. He leads the league with 56 sacks. But in the face of a blitz, he’s thrown 6 TD’s to just 1 INT. He’s ranked 13th of all qualified QB’s against the blitz, higher than Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts (to name a few). So seeing the blitz isn’t a bad thing per say for Caleb. It makes him a quicker decision maker. And his stats against Minnesota backed that as he threw for 340 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 12 against the Vikings.

DESMOND RIDDER ($4800 DK) – All signs point to Ridder starting tonight for LVR as Aidan O’Connell is doubtful with a leg injury. I’m not a Ridder fan, but it is worth noting that he started the season as Atlanta’s starting QB in 2023. His poor perfromance is why they spent money in free agency on Cousins and drafted Michael Penix in the first round. But it can also be used as motivation for Ridder and I’ll think he’ll have some extra juice for tonight’s game.

Also worth noting is the Falcons D is awful. They allow the 6th most points to QB’s and 8th most passing yards per game. If the other QB’s were in the $7K range then I’d see value in Ridder. But, with Cousins only $700 more, I find the value of Ridder as low and will likely be fading him tonight. Even with a plus matchup fueled by spurned motivation.

Tier 1: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold

Tier 2: Caleb Williams, Desmond Ridder

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight because of matchups. The top 2 are clearly the best option but there could be value in other spots.

AARON JONES ($6500 DK) – Jones has the best matchup as the Bears allow the 4th most fantasy point to RB’s. He exploited this matchup back in Week 12 when he ran for 106 yards, his apex on this season. The Bears allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 134.8.

BIJAN ROBINSON ($7600 DK) – Bijan is the safest option of all the RB’s tonight. Jones has a few games of single digit scoring. Bijan’s lowest output is 10.3 points and that was in a blowout loss against Denver. He also gets a plus matchup as the Raiders are allowing the 11th most fantasy points to RB’s. His matchup isn’t as good as Jones and his salary is $1100 more which is why I put him 2nd. But you can fit him in with Jones or run him separate with multiple big name pass catchers.

SINCERE MCCORMICK ($5100 DK) – The Raiders announced McCormick will start tonight. This is good news as he’s flashed potential the last two weeks, with 134 yards rushing on 27 carries. Atlanta has good numbers against RB’s, but that is somewhat smoke and mirrors. The Falcons have allowed just 4 rushing TD’s this season to RB’s which is 2nd lowest in the NFL. But they are allowing 120.8 yards rushing which is 16th most in the NFL. And they’re susceptible to RB’s that can catch, as they’ve allowed 5.5 receptions to RB’s this season which is 3rd highest in the NFL. See Ameer Abdullah.

NOTE: Alex Mattison is listed as healthy and will suit up tonight. This backfield is crowded and the Raiders pass at such a high rate that I have concerns on using any of their RB’s.

AMEER ABDULLAH ($4600 DK) – Last week looked to be an aberration. Abdullah saw just 2 touches coming off the previous two weeks when he averaged 12.5 touches per game. Abdullah still saw a decent amount of the snaps, registering 39%. The problem was the game script and Tampa’s defense as they held him to -2 total yards. Being Atlanta’s defense is much more favorable, and they allow the 3rd most receptions to RB’s, I like Abdullah to get positive fantasy points tonight.

BEARS RB’s – D’Andre Swift is questionable tonight. If he ends up playing, I will have some interest based on his salary. But if he doesn’t play then we have a potential steal in Travis Homer at $4000. Getting a starting RB for that price, even though the matchup is tough, would be a great edge to use in order to pay up for some other big names.

Tier 1: AARON JONES, BIJAN ROBINSON

Tier 2: SINCERE MCCORMICK, TRAVIS HOMER (if Swift is out)

Tier 3: D’ANDRE SWIFT, AMEER ABDULLAH, TYLER ALLGEIER, CAM AKERS

Wide Receiver

DRAKE LONDON ($6400 DK) – London is my favorite receiver on the slate tonight. He’s $1800 cheaper than Jefferson and has a better matchup against LVR. As Cousins is my #1 QB, I’ll be looking to pair him up with London in most lineups that I have Kirk. I’ll also be comfortable running London solo. Our projections have London at just 2 points behind Jefferson.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON ($8200 DK) – The Bears have been more vulnerable against WR #2’s and TE’s. And this showed up heavily in their first matchup with Minnestoa as they held Jefferson to 2 catches and 27 yards. Chicago tends to play Cover 3, which allows them to double certain WR’s with safety help. The Bears also held Jefferson in check in their final game in 2023, holding him to 4 catches for 38 yards. But the good news is, Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in every home matchup against Chicago. He’s averaged 8 catches and 123 yards in three career home games against the Bears.

JAKOBI MYERS ($5700 DK) – Myers has the best matchup tonight as the Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. He is a reception machine, hauling in 23 in the past three weeks. He’s seen 36 targets in that stretch. If his QB’s had some accuracy then his numbers could even be better. And that’s his only drawback tonight, as Ridder is not known for his accuracy. But this is still a great price and plus matchup for a WR that sees the type of volume that Myers does.

DJ MOORE ($5800 DK) – Speaking of great matchups, the only team that allows more fantasy points to WR’s than the Falcons is the Vikings. DJ Moore went for 7 catches and 106 yards in Week 12 against Minnesota. He’ll be the best blitz beater as he can line-up in the slot or see quick routes from the outside.

DARNELL MOONEY ($5500 DK) – Mooney reeled in 6 catches for 142 yards last week in Minnesota. He’ll have opportunities tonight too against a Raiders team that doesn’t have a CB ranked inside the top 66 players at that position according to PFF.

KEENAN ALLEN ($5400 DK) – Allen has been more active in the passing game of late, averaging 18 fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks. He also had a big game against Minnesota in Week 12 bringing in 9 catches for 96 yards. Allen’s performance will hinge on TD equity as he doesn’t get a lot of downfield opportunities.

Of note, JORDAN ADDISON had a huge game last week and against Chicago is Week 12. He’s in my player pool too but I will likely only play him in lineups that I don’t have Jefferson.

Tier 1: DRAKE LONDON, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JAKOBI MYERS

Tier 2: DJ MOORE, KEENAN ALLEN, DARNELL MOONEY, JORDAN ADDISON

TIER 3: RAY-RAY MCCLOUD, ROME ODUNZE, TRE TUCKER

Tight End

With have one big name TE who has underperformed this season but has a plus matchup. The other TE’s are low salary and low volume.

Tier 1: BROCK BOWERS

Tier 2: TJ HOCKENSON

Tier 3: KYLE PITTS, COLE KMET

DEFENSE

There is one premium defense based on sack equity. But all are in play due to sack potential.

Tier 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

Tier 2: ATLANTA FALCONS

Tier 3: CHICAGO BEARS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown 

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns (SHOWDOWNS).

Best Rules for the Showdown slate (CHI at MIN):

• Play the passing game tonight. Minnesota at home has been performing at a high level all season. They average 28.7 points per game in their home dome.
• Put a premium WR in your CPT. Looking at Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson or Moore.
• I will use Travis Homer as salary relief. Especially if Swift is out.
• Kickers are in play but I prefer Reichard (Minnesota). Teams like the Bears that have little to play for will pass on FG opps more often than normal.
• Aaron Jones should have a big game tonight as well. I’ll play him with pass catchers but not necessarily with Darnold.
• Bears WR rankings for me; Moore, Allen, Kmet, Odunze.
• Caleb Williams could have a good fantasy game. I don’t mind playing him in a runback against Minnesota’s passing game.

Best Rules for the slate (ATL at LVR):

• My favorite CPT’s are Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Jakobi Myers.
• I’m bullish on Desmond Ridder for the two game slate. But I like him in a showdown. He’s even a CPT candidate due to the potential for him to score with his legs.
• Brock Bowers can’t be stopped but his salary is high. Try to fit him in with Myers or Ridder when making lineups. The Raiders pass at the 3rd highest rate in the league.
• Bijan will be most popular player and rightfully so. With the Falcons on a long losing streak, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a focused running attack, especially in the redzone.
• At least one secondary receiver will have a big game. My preference is Mooney, Tucker, then McCloud.
• Even though Abdullah didn’t see many touches last week, at $3400 DK tonight he could be a good salary saver. Teh Falcons have let up 3rd most receptions to RB’s this season. And that’s Abdullah’s bread and butter. The risk is that Alex Mattison is back (same goes for risk with McCormick).
• McCormick gets the start at RB but is priced up in the Showdown. I prefer the passing game over him.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

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