NFL

Happy New Years to the Win Daily family! I’m very much looking forward to the 2025 year with all of you as we continue to push out information to help us all “Win”. As we enter the final week of the regular season, I’m in need of a positive one to stay on the plus side of the marker for the season. What is unfortunate is there are not many games on the slate that have playoff meaning. But we still have some angles to attack including understanding motivation, bonuses, draft positioning, and backup player talent. We’ll start with the prime-time game on Saturday night and take it to Sunday’s thriller in Detroit to determine the #1 seed in the NFC.

NFL BETS WEEK 18 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 45-45-1, game bets only)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (SATURDAY 830PM)

The Steelers have experienced a rough taste of reality over the past three weeks. They were blown out by three of the best teams in the NFL in the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. All along, the Steelers weren’t truly a viable 10-3 team. They lack offensive firepower, and their defense has significant holes, especially in the back end as both Kansas City and Philadelphia torched the Steelers through the air. But there’s one thing that Mike Tomlin is, and that’s the ultimate underdog. He is 21-7-3 as a home underdog in his career, including two outright wins this season (Baltimore and NY Jets). And coming off a terrible three game stretch, combined with the home underdog status to an 8-8 team, should be enough motivation to get the troops fired up.

Additionally, as much as Cincy has everything to play for, their defense is still an issue. The Steelers scored 44 on the Bengals back in early December. Since week 1, every team has scored at least 20 points on the Bengals minus the Giants (31st in points per game) and Browns (32nd in points per game). Then there’s the kicking concern which reared it’s ugly head again last week when Cade York missed a short game-winning FG attempt. On the other side, Pittsburgh has one of the best in the game who rarely misses in his home stadium. Finally, over 63% of the bets and money is pouring in on Cincy as their offense and playoffs hopes attract public attention.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +6.5 vs LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers have everything to play for while the Raiders have everything to lose for. In LA, a win by the Chargers will lock them into the #5 seed and send them to Houston next weekend for a playoff meeting with the Texans. A loss would push them 1000+ miles more east to Baltimore. The much more preferable option is obviously the Texans who have limped to the AFC South title this season despite having a negative point differential (-9).

But I’m going to back the feisty Raiders in this one. While a loss would put them in the conversation for a top-5 pick, that doesn’t seem to be something that is on HC Antonio Pierce’s mind. The Raiders have won their last two games following a 10-game losing streak. The reinsertion of QB Aiden O’Connell has sparked that mini win streak. However, it’s also clear the Raiders aren’t willing to lay down for their coach and will play hard until the end. And if this is in fact Pierce’s last game, I’m certain he will do his best to win it to improve his resume.

While the Chargers have looked impressive in the past two weeks, I could also see them getting out to a lead and then benching people thus opening a back-door situation. Playing in Houston likely means an early Saturday game so getting some guys out early might be in the back of Harbaugh’s mind if he feels he has the game in hand.

Lastly, 19% of the bets and 7% of the money is coming in on Vegas. That is the lowest on the board today and feels like this is a spot where the real Vegas could cash in big.

CHICAGO BEARS +9.5 at GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers have won 11 straight games against their rivals from the south. It is the longest current winning streak that one team has over another in the NFL. And wouldn’t it be so Chicago if they snapped that streak today? It’s obviously a meaningless game for the Bears and one they should lose to improve their draft stock. With a win they would likely drop outside of the top 5.

On the other hand, Green Bay is already resting several defensive players. They can only improve their positioning in the NFC with a win if the Commanders lose. Otherwise, Green Bay is off to Philadelphia for the first round of the playoffs. There will likely be scoreboard watching in Lambeau and that will determine the fate of their star players like Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love and others. I see the Bears playing this one for momentum and pride, as in not to lose their 12th in a row to Green Bay. Give me Da Bears in a game they should play to do what they know best, lose. But will do what Da Bears do best, which is the opposite of what their fans want.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 at DETROIT LIONS

I love both teams as they’ve embattled injuries and played hard, solid football all season. Minnesota incurred an injury to their presumed starting QB, JJ McCarthy, in the preseason. And all they did was hand the keys to Sam Darnold and watch him drive this team to a top 10 offense in scoring and passing. Detroit has had to overcome significant injuries to both fronts, including their defensive star Aiden Hutchinson and heart-and-soul RB David Montgomery. But yet, they keep winning, and doing it in style.

But ultimately, I’m taking the healthier team tomorrow night in the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers, who have been in shambles for weeks, put up 475 yards of offense against the Lions last Monday Night. That included 400 yards of passing. We just stated how Minnesota has a top 5 passing offense which means we have a major issue for the Lions. If it wasn’t for two Brock Purdy INT’s, the Lions likely wouldn’t have held on last week.

And Minnesota has the top rush defense in the league which will give Detroit some issues in their offensive attack. I see the Vikings getting just enough stops, and scoring enough points, to win the biggest game of the weekend and get the much desired 1st round bye.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): NEW YORK JETS -1.5. Say goodbye to Aaron Rodgers for good! We will all be better off for it. But in classic Rodgers fashion, he’ll leave with a win and tell you how close they were this year and how good he is.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 17 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. The Lions head to San Francisco where is the place they lost the NFC Championship Game last season. Revenge is on their mind as well as the need to keep pace with the Minnesota Vikings for the #1 seed in the NFC. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total as Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite with a game total at 51. As for the weather, it will be mild and clear making a good night for football. Temperatures will be in the lwo 50’s with very low winds (7-10 mph).

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

DETROIT LIONS

Running Back

With the loss of David Montgomery, the Lions backfield has become much clearer. It’s Jahmyr Gibbs and almost nobody else. Gibbs saw 69% of the snaps and 85% of the touches in Week 16. Craig Reynolds will see some action, as he accounted for 5 touches. But he’s more of a flyer play who will only reach value based on an injury to Gibbs or a long run/catch.

The 49ers are a team you can attack confidently on the ground. They’ve allowed 121 rushing yards per game as well as they 8th most fantasy points to RB’s. DVOA ranks them at 25th overall for rushing defense.

Gibbs is in store for a big game and should be considered for all your lineups as well as CPT.

Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs

Tier 2: Craig Reynolds

Punt

Wide Receiver

The Lions will have to choose tonight on how they attack a beleaguered San Fran team. Their pass defense has been a strength, allowing the 3rd least yards per game at 183.3. They’ve also allowed the fewest fantasy points to WR’s. But several receivers have found room against the 49ers, including Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in recent weeks.

My theory on tonight is Gibbs will have a big game along with 1-2 receivers. I lean Sam LaPorta for one then either Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams or Tim Patrick. I’d play a mix of those four, and not loading up a 3 receiver stack for tonight.

Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tier 2: Jameson Williams,

Punts: Tim Patrick

Tight End

It’s been a down year for Sam LaPorta as he has just one game over 100 yards receiving on the season. But he’s been much more involved in recent weeks, reeling in 19 balls over the last four games with three touchdowns. Based on coverage schemes in San Fran, I think this could be a big game for LaPorta. I like him over Williams (who relies on the deep ball) and Patrick.

Tier 1: Sam LaPorta

Tier 2: Ben Wright

Punt/Fadeable:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Running Back

Isaac Guerendo is back for the 49ers which is good news. Without him last week, the 49ers managed jsut 30 yards on 9 carries from their running backs. Detroit has been good against the run all season, allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to that position. But injuries have depleted their front line and second level. Just two weeks ago, James Cook ran for 105 yards on 14 carries against their vaunted D.

Tier 1: Isaac Guerendo

Tier 2: Patrick Taylor Jr.

Wide Receiver

The way to beat the Lions has been through the air as they allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. Detroit has also allowed the 5th most passing yards at 240.4 per game. Last week we saw the 49ers make a concerted effort to get Deebo Samuel involved in the offense. I think they’ll do that again tonight and he will see 10+ targets against this Lions D. Also consider Jauan Jennings who leads the 49ers in receiving yards and TD’s. He’s slowed down of late but should have an opportunity for big plays down the field against a Lions D that is missing key players in the defensive backfield.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings

Tier 2: Ricky Pearsall

Cheap Options: Chris Conley

Tight End

The Lions allow the 2nd fewest points to TE’s this season. George Kittle is not your typical TE so do I expect him to outscore the Lions average output. However, the Lions have given up the fewest yards to TE’s so he’ll have to produce by scoring a TD against this tough coverage unit.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Jahmyr Gibbs. The QB’s are both in play as Goff should have big plays available and Purdy is going against the 2nd worst pass defense in the NFL. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe Gibbs is your best options as well as St. Brown or Deebo Samuel. The 2 QB’s are a good option at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel

FDMVP Tier 2: Jauan Jennings, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy

FDMVP Tier 3: Isaac Guerendo, Sam LaPorta

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel

DK CPT Tier 2:  Jauan Jennings, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy

DK CPT Tier 3: Isaac Guerendo, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle

DK CPT Punt: Jameson Williams

Best Rules for the slate:

• The weather will be decent for football and conducive for the teams to throw the ball.
• I’ll have Jahmyr Gibbs as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And the 49ers have been bleeding yards to RB’s all year.
• For the 49ers WR’s, I prefer Samuel the most based on how the 49ers played last week. He also will see 1-2 carries and potentially one near the goal line.
• St. Brown should have a big day against the 49ers. San Fran is good at defending the deep ball so Detroit will have to look for the underneath routes.
• Sam LaPorta is inline for a big game tonight. I see the 49ers selling out on the run and leaving the 2nd level open.
• Both QB’s are good options and I lean to Goff for the bigger output. The 49ers D hasn’t been good of late and has lost TOP in four of their last five games.
• I’ll consider both kickers, but Jake Moody is a mess and the 49ers have nothing to play for. I could see them avoiding FG’s. Therefore, I will play more Jake Bates and he’s only $200 more in salary.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Are you not entertained? One of the famous quotes from Maximus in the original Gladiator is how the NFL felt following yesterday’s slate of games. The thriller in Cincinnati was one of the games of the year. And the Rams and Cardinals followed that up with a defensive battle that ended with a turnover in the endzone. For us, Saturday was a great day as well. In the NFL, the Cardinals got us in the plus money to finish with a 2-1 record on the day. On Discord, I went 4-1 in bowl games on Saturday cashing in on a big public fade with BYU. Coming off a 4-1 bowl slate on Friday, that’s now 10-3 in the past two days. Let’s keep that rolling into today’s NFL card.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Packers last week which was as easy as they come.

NFL BETS WEEK 17 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 43-43-1, game bets only)

BUFFALO BILLS -8.5 vs NY JETS

The Bills had a scare last weekend against a divisional rival. I don’t see that story repeating itself today when the Jets come to town. Buffalo can wrap up the #2 seed in the AFC with a win today, which would give them a mini-bye next week heading into the playoffs. That should be enough motivation to put on a show today at home. But if that’s not enough, they welcome their rivals from the east, who are a circus and have been looking forward to the offseason since October.

Add to that, the weather is calling for 40-mph gusts of winds in Buffalo. Meaning this could turn into a ground game. The Bills are 2nd in offensive rushing DVOA while the Jets are 29th. Plus, arm strength will also be a factor and there’s no other QB with a bigger rocket attached to his right shoulder than Josh Allen. If the script plays out how I see it, Rodgers will be sitting alone on the bench in the 2nd half starting at the clouds in the sky, thinking about his next darkness retreat or appearance on the McAfee show.

TENNESSEE TITANS +1.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This is a game that will determine the top of the NFL draft. Both teams sit at 3-12 and are likely picking in the top 10 of the 2025 draft. But one could be in the top 3 if they play their hand correctly. I’m banking that will be the Jaguars who have a dead man walking at Head Coach and are very used to picking in the top 3 (had 1st pick twice in the past 5 years).

This one is difficult to handicap, but I like the Titans because of the small edge at QB between Mason Rudolph and Mac Jones. Rudolph kept the Titans in the game last week and put up 30 points against the Colts. He was able to win critical games late last year to propel the Steelers into the playoffs. I trust him more than Jones, who put up just 14 points in Las Vegas last week and has 5 TD’s to 7 INT’s on the season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

The Eagles a foaming at the mouth to play this game. They are still furious at the way they allowed Washington to comeback and steal the victory from them last week in DC. While Jalen Hurts has been ruled out, the Birds still hold a huge talent edge over their bitter rivals. Kenny Pickett will be starting at QB, which is a dream for the kid who grew up in South Jersey attending Eagles games and wearing TO and Wentz jerseys. Also, the Cowboys have a big loss as Cee Dee Lamb has been ruled out. Which begs the question, how will the Boys move the ball today in Philly? With Lamb in the lineup, Dallas scored just 6 points and gained a total of 146 yards against the Eagles back in Week 10.

The Eagles also have the motivation of locking up the NFC East, and would be the first team to win back-to-back Division titles since 2004. And to do that against a team they consider their biggest rivals would be the cherry on top.

GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The game of the day kicks off in the 4pm window today in Minnesota. The Packers and Vikings are both locks for the playoffs. But their seed is still to be determined. While Green Bay can’t win the Division, they could move up to the top wild card with a win and some help which would give them a game against the NFC South winner instead of the Rams. Which is a big motivator. But the biggest motivation is these two teams don’t like each other. From the days of Brett Favre wearing both jerseys to Randy Moss mooning the crowd in Green Bay, these two have hated the others jersey for decades. Which means both have some added motivation to win and build momentum going into the playoffs.

In this scenario, I lean Green Bay. For one, HC Matt LeFleur knows how to win. The Packers did so at the end of the regular season last year which included a 33-10 win in Minnesota in Week 17. The Packers have a defense that can create turnovers and should be motivated as they allowed 31 points to Minnesota in their previous game this season. On offense, the Packers are multi-dimensional and able to beat you on the ground or air, ranking 3rd overall in offensive DVOA. Minnesota has been great but has struggled at time scoring TD’s, and that will be the difference tonight.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): N/A

SURVIVOR PICK

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Joe Flacco magic. If you’re still alive, you likely don’t have any good teams remaining. So this would be a great spot to land on as the Giants are clearly tanking for the #1 pick.

Will provide a pick on Sunday’s slate

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.