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by Dave Gloeckner

The new NFL Season starts today.  There is a beacon of light shining down on each fan as their team starts a season fresh, with no wins and no losses. Well, maybe the beacon misses Foxborough, MA but they’ve enjoyed enough success that this downturn was inevitable. With hope and optimism budding, even in the small corners of the country such as Green Bay, we open the fall with our favorite sport in America, the National Football League.

In 2022 we hit big, posting a 9-1 record in futures (click the link here).  Last year was a mixed bag as we posted a 3-4 record in the futures market. But overall, the process was sound (Green Bay over wins, Indianapolis over wins, Minnesota under wins) as we just missed out on a huge payday with several teams missing their mark by 0.5 games (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Seattle) and just bad luck (Aaron Rodgers injury).

If you’re new to the Futures market, specifically team win totals, then let me refresh my strategy here.  Futures are a poor investment but can be wildly entertaining.  That’s because you must invest money upfront (now) and allow it to sit for 4+ months before seeing a return (January).  So don’t overcommit your bankroll here.  I recommend playing a low percentage of your bankroll, approximately 10-20%, and diversify your picks.  Look at win totals and normal juiced options but also play some longer shots like Division titles, Conference Champions and Super Bowl winners.

As with years past, I look at some major principals, outside of Head Coach changes and major personnel developments. These include, but aren’t limited to:

  1. PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (OVERPERFORMED)
  2. PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (UNDERPERFORMED)
  3. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL / FUMBLE RECOVERIES
  4. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
  5. PLAYOFF TEAM TURNOVER
  6. CLOSE GAME RESULTS
  7. QB PLAY / HEAD COACHING

Some numbers don’t always tell the truth but point differential compared to overall wins is a great indicator of team luck. That’s where Pythagorean Win Percentage comes into play. The top teams that were on the luck side, i.e. OVERPERFORMED, were from the same state:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers won 10 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 7.8 wins
  • Philadelphia Eagles won 11 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 8.6 wins

The top teams that were unlucky, i.e. UNDERPERFORMED, had playoff expectations but failed to meet them:

  • Los Angeles Chargers won 5 games but Pyth Theorem had them 7.1 wins
  • New Orleans Saints won 9 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 10.5 wins

So obviously those teams will be looked at for what we call regression. They stood at the farthest side of a normally distributed curve and will likely swing back to the middle unless they met some other criteria we factor.

I won’t bore you with all the metrics and data that was reviewed. But instead, I’ll send you off to the meat and potatoes of this article and explain my rationale there. Hopefully your team is on the plus side of my bets. But if not, the beacon is still shining and keep your optimism high. Because it’s NFL kickoff weekend and nothing beats that in all of professional sports.

#1 ATLANTA FALCONS over 9.5 wins (-140 DK) and win NFC South (-130 DK)

Guess who the betting favorite is to win the NFC South? Not the three-time defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs. Not the New Orleans Saints who have the most wins in the past 7 years and won the division four times in a row prior to the Bucs run. Nope, it’s the Dirty Birds from Atlanta as they made a huge offseason splash in several areas to help bridge the gap between a team ready to win and one that found ways to lose.

First, the Falcons made significant changes to the two most important positions in football, the head coach and quarterback. In comes Raheem Morris who replaces Arthur Smith as head coach. Morris is a familiar face in Atlanta as he spent six seasons with the Falcons from 2015-2020. He finished 2020 as the interim head coach and helped the Falcons play competitively and finish at 4-8 (5 losses were by one score).

Next, the QB position was addressed as the Falcons moved on from a massive error in talent judgement and sent Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke packing. This was off the heels of a year with Marcus Mariota, one in which he ended up quitting after being benched. So they brought in a steady arm, one comparable to Matt Ryan who played that position in ATL for 14 years, in Kirk Cousins. They then drafted his replacement in Michael Penix, but that’s for another conversation. The good news is, they have two QB’s that can play and a coach that will hold them accountable.

Kirk Cousins brings his fun loving personality to a team that desperately needs it. Photo courtesy of www.inkl.com

Then, let’s look at some of issues the other issues Atlanta had. They were 31st in turnover differential at -12. The Falcons threw the 5th most interceptions with 18 and most came at critical points in the game. And their luck wasn’t very good either as they recovered just 42.1% of fumbles they created, last in the league.

Lastly, the Falcons have what is ranked as the easiest schedule in the league. That’s because of the weakness of the NFC South but it does help they got paired with the AFC West and NFC East.

The Falcons fit the profile of a team that is ready to jump on the scene. From a revamped defense to major additions on offense as well as now letting loose an underused beat in Bijan Robinson. They fit most of my principles and believe they will rise to the top of what is an open division.  

#2 CINCINNATI BENGALS over 10.5 wins (-120 DK) and win AFC SOUTH (+145)

The Bengals, in a way, remind me of why I was high on the Green Bay Packers last season. A lot of that was based on HC Matt LaFleur who didn’t forget how to coach in one season. Coming off three-straight 13 win seasons, the Packers faltered in 2022 behind a lot of drama with their QB. And they fell off bettors’ radars as a win total of just 7.5 was set for the team from upper Wisconsin. By now, you know how the Packers fared as they are now a trendy pick as a Super Bowl contender.

Cincinnati won 22 games over the span of 2021 to 2022 and reached the Super Bowl and AFC Championship in those years. One could argue that they were a controversial call away from another Super Bowl appearance. And then, the wheels fell off in 2023 as they faced a myriad of injuries including one to their most prominent player, Joe Burrow.

But like LaFleur, Bengals HC Zac Taylor didn’t forget how to coach football. Instead, he navigated with what he had, which wasn’t much. Now his prized QB had a full offseason to heal, and they hit a home run in free agency by getting a “A” grade by PFF (Adding T Trent Brown was their best move).

Guess who’s back? Back again? Joe Burrow pulls off his new look for what is meant to be a comeback season in Cincy

Additionally, the Bengals are in a division that had two of the four highest overperforming teams according to Pythagorean win percentage; the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Those two teams are still mired in quarterback purgatory and could have major regression because of it.

Lastly, we look at the schedule which is favorable according to most sites. One prominent one, Sharp Football Analysis, has the Bengals with the 3rd easiest schedule. By finishing in last place in the AFC South in 2023 the Bengals picked up games against other last place teams in the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers. Compare that to Cleveland, whose extra games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. That could be a two game swing in an already competitive division.

It’s a combination of coach, QB, and schedule that gives me high hopes for the Bengals. And while the number is high, the winner of the AFC North has won double digit games every year since 1990.

#3 TAMPA BAY BUCS under 7.5 wins (+120 DK)

The Bucs were supposed to be in transition following the retirement of the GOAT QB in Tom Brady. But they ended up overachieving and winning a playoff game and then pushing Detroit for three quarters in the Divisional Round. And most of that was due to the return of the chef, as QB Baker Mayfield had a career year for Tampa. But there were also some things that stand out and aren’t repeatable.

First, the Bucs forced the most fumbles in the league last season and had the 7th best turnover differential. This came from a defense that allowed the 10th most yards in the league which was the most for any playoff team outside of the Philadelphia Eagles. Next, they had the 3rd best redzone defense in the league which came with some level of surprise. Tampa was the 30th best redzone defense in the league in 2022 and reduced the TD percentage allowed from 65.4% to 45%. That jump doesn’t align with the overall play by their defense (4th most pass yards allowed in the league).

And frankly, I see the Division as much better in 2024. Tampa has a good roster but it is getting older in key areas and they still have a weak offensive line and inability to run the ball. The Saints still have a good defense and underperformed in 2023. The Panthers finally have some stable pieces and look to have improved offensively. Finally, as discussed earlier, the Falcons look to have pieces in place on both sides of the ball to be a formidable opponent.

The last piece is this, we see playoff turnover from year to year at ~50%. I’ve already highlighted two teams that I expect to make the playoffs who didn’t in 2023 (Atlanta and Cincy). So there has to be some teams that take a step back. And for me, Tampa is at the top of that list. It’s been a good run down on the West Coast of Florida but we will finally see the negative regression that was expected a year ago.

#4 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over 7.5 wins (-140 DK)

If at first you don’t succeed, we try again. And that’s where I’m at with the Seahawks. While they let me down last year, the Seahawks have the ingredients to be a factor in the NFC West again. First off, it’s not like Seattle was awful last year as they won 9 games. Which by the way is the same number they won in 2022. Two straight winning seasons but yet their win total is set at just 7.5? And that’s with a 3rd place schedule? Call me bullish, but I like those odds.

The biggest factor in the down year for Seattle was the defense, as they fell to 28th in DVOA. So, the Seahawks swiftly went after a defensive guru. But surprisingly it wasn’t one of their former own in Dan Quinn. Instead, they baited and hooked Baltimore DC Mike MacDonald to take over the head coaching duties from Pete Carroll. Prior to helping Baltimore to the #1 overall defense, MacDonald helped Michigan rise to a top ten defense under Jim Harbaugh. And as you know, Jim’s brother John is the HC in Baltimore, so he comes from a good coaching tree.

We also have a new OC in Ryan Grubb. If you heard me on the Win Daily Sirius show this summer, I love the addition of Grubb. The new OC is an intriguing play caller who has a history in the Pacific Northwest coming from the Washington Huskies. While it’s his first stint in the NFL, he will bring some creativity and intuition to an offense that has playmakers in DK Metcalf, JSN, Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Lockett.

Blitz and the Seahawks look to be a factor in the NFC West under new HC Mike MacDonald.

The key here is the progression of the defense. They allowed the second most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns. And the Hawks have the right person in place to turn that around quickly. Adding Byron Murphy III and Christian Haynes in the draft is a good start. And re-signing DT Leonard Williams helps. Then there’s the schedule which ranks 16th hardest, but the easiest in the division. Call me the 14th man this year as I root on Seattle to pay me back for last year’s near miss.

#5 PITTSBURGH STEELERS under 8.5 wins (-145 DK)

The Steelers pulled off a miracle last season by making the playoffs. It was probably HC Mike Tomlin’s best coaching job outside his Super Bowl victory. The Steelers had a -20 point differential yet won 10 games. The offense was an issue as they scored just 17.9 points/game which was 5th least in the league.

What stood out the most, and this was like two teams I hit on in recent years, was Pittsburgh’s record in one-score games. Which was a 9-2 mark. The Vikings in 2022 won 11 games by one score and we jumped on the under last year and won. Same situation with the Raiders in 2021.

Another thing to realize is the Steelers, even with a terrible offense, turned the ball over just 16 times which was the 2nd least in the NFL. They are now handing the keys over to Russell Wilson, who threw 19 INT’s in his last two seasons in Denver. If the offense is to improve under new OC Arthur Smith, it may also come with more turnovers.

Finally, the Steelers have the 2nd hardest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis. Their fortunes of making the playoffs turned their 2024 schedule into a tough undertaking. If there is any coach that can pull out another miracle again, it’s Mike Tomlin. But in reality, this looks like a team headed to his first under 0.500 season of Tomlin’s career.

#6 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over 8.5 wins (-110 DK)

Duval looks to be in the shadows once again. And just like a Jaguar in the wild, that’s where they like to be. Jacksonville came out of nowhere in 2022 and won the AFC South after finishing in last place the season before. They were then given the pole position heading into the 2023 season and didn’t handle it well. The schedule, along with injuries and struggles on offense, factored into a disappointing season.

Although we classify last season as a down year, the Jags did win 9 games and ended the season in 2nd place in the AFC South. That included a 3-1 record against the Texans and Colts. But it was the season ending loss to Tennessee that stung and will be motivation heading into 2024.

The offseason was solid as the Jags let go of WR Calvin Ridley who didn’t mesh well with QB Trevor Lawrence or WR Christian Kirk. And they replaced him with Gabe Davis from Buffalo and early draft pick Brian Thomas Jr of LSU.

The Jags were also bitten by the turnover bug as they were overall -3. But the issue was on offense as they were 2nd in the league in fumbles (16) and had the 4th most turnovers (30). Minimizing turnovers will be paramount for the Jags and it’s something they can rectify as Jacksonville was a +5 in 2022 ranking 7th best in the NFL.

The schedule also looks to be fair as the Jags rank 15th in the league. But more importantly, it’s one of the easiest schedules down the home stretch as they have three games in their last five against projected last place teams in Tennessee and Las Vegas.

Head Coach Doug Pederson has proven himself to be an underdog his whole career. He thrives in that role. And with all eyes on Houston, I like Doug to rally his team and make a push for the AFC South once again.

#7:  PHILADELPHIA EAGLES TO WIN THE NFC EAST (-125 DK)

No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons in 20 years. And with all the turmoil going on in Dallas, they look primed to take a step backwards. The Cowboys O-Line is weakened, and the defense played over their head. Then there is doubt at RB as well as QB since Jerry didn’t sign his boy Dak to an extension. I do think Washington will be better this year. The Commanders have a potential franchise QB in place, but they are a year or two away from competing with the big boys. I’m off the Giants, as they let their franchise RB leave for nothing and have no confidence in QB Daniel Jones.

Saquon Barkley brings his talents to Philly. Will he be able to help the Eagles rebound from a disappointing 2023 season? Image courtesy of Bleeding Green Nation

By that math, we’re left with the Philadelphia Eagles. And that might scare some, as the lasting images of the 2023 Eagles was a team that gave up. How does HC Nick Sirianni build back the confidence and trust in his team? That will be the biggest issue to overcome in the 2024 season.

The addition of OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio is a great start for accountability. Both have coached top units in this league and are immediate upgrades to their incumbents. We also have to factor in the Eagles offseason, which was a smashing success. They swung in FA and landed RB Saquon Barkley to help in the run game. The Birds also added key defensive players like LB Devin White and DE Bryce Huff to fill holes in the front seven. And then Howie Roseman found a way to fix the DB issues by drafting two of the top prospects at that position in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. He also found a way to fill their biggest training camp hole by trading for WR Jahan Dotson.

Simply put, this is a put up or shut up year for Nick Sirianni. In fact, it’s likely a year that determines his fate as Eagles HC. And based on what I’ve heard and seen, I think he’s learned a lot from the last two years and will step up and have one of his best seasons yet.

#8:  LA CHARGERS over 8.5 wins (-125 DK)

I could be drinking the Kool-Aide here. As we have seen a lot of bets come in on the Chargers solely based on their hiring of HC Jim Harbaugh. But while that factors in my handicapping, the Chargers 2023 misfortunes are also something that aligns with 2024 being a turnaround season.

First off, the Chargers were much better than a 5-12 team. Their Pythagorean win total was 7.1 which was 2.1 wins over their actual performance. This was due to a league high 8 losses in one-score games. Which feels like same old Chargers.

And then there’s their inexplicable ability to run the ball last season. They had the 6th fewest rushing yards (1642) and 6th fewest yards per attempt (3.8). Which explains why they used their first round pick on OT Joe Alt. Pairing him with Rashawn Slater could add up to being one of the best O-Lines in the league this season. The Chargers also reshaped the running back room bringing in Ravens castoffs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards who will both bring a form of physicality they haven’t seen in years.

Next, I’m still a believer in QB Justin Herbert. His outside weapons aren’t deep but they are young in Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson. And he’s now listening to a former NFL QB who has had success in this league. I expect Herbert to flourish this year and have one of his best seasons yet.

Finally, the Chargers have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. They have to win games in their division to get to 9+ wins, which they should be able to do against QB’s Bo Nix and Gardner Minshew. And take this as additional fuel, Harbaugh took a 6-10 team and turned them into a 13-3 team in his first season in SF. I’m buying, and drinking, the punch out in LA.

Now that you finished reading the 2024 NFL WIN TOTAL article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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This article breaks down the rules I “generally use” in the Win Daily Optimizer to MME (mass-multi-enter) on DraftKings and FanDuel NFL showdown slates. I use the term “generally” because this is a starting point for a top-down look at how I approach each slate. When analyzing salaries and team schemes it might make sense to remove or add a rule in the optimizer from time to time, but that will be addressed in the specific showdown breakdown articles. Make it a point to check out the key rules for each specific slate, however, keep this article as a reference. 

Simply having access to an optimizer is not a guarantee to making big bucks. You also have to know how to use it, which is what I dive into below.

General Rules I use for Showdown

1.     In large field GPP’s never use your entire salary, if you plan on maxing out 150 lineups. If you win it will be a major letdown because the prize pool will be huge split at the top.

This is not to say a lineup using the entire salary can’t win, it can and it does. However, when it does a 100K top prize gets split up 1,000 ways netting you a few hundred bucks if you are lucky as opposed to a big payday when you differentiate simply by adding salary perimeters. Novice players almost always FOMO themselves into using their entire salary, resulting in massive duplications. I will play every Showdown slate this season, and I will never use the entire salary on one lineup. That’s a guarantee. 

2.     Maximize lineups with your core players, mixing in low-rostered players. 

If you are maxing 150 don’t adjust projections and take the best 150 lineups the optimizer spits out. Pick the guys you like, build rules locking in your favorites, and then run the Opto to see how many combinations you get with those Core players. If my player rules only make 100 lineups (out of 150), I love it. This means I have every combination of every guy that I like. The next 50 lineups I make, if I choose to do so, I can take bigger swings. For example, I can filter out one of my Core players or filter in one total punt guy.

*It is important to note that you will be making multiple spreadsheets to export in this example. It is not just one that you simply upload. Yes, it takes some work but it will pay off. 

Here is an experiment you can run. Once you build your rules, set the opto to 300 lineups. If you get 300, meaning you get well over the 150 max, you have more work to do. Keep shaving it down, by adding rules or other parameters (salary, ownership, etc.), to get it below 150. You cannot be mad at yourself if you don’t win when you know you played the guys you love, and they just don’t hit. When you will be mad is when you go back and see your 200th-best lineup was the nuts and it was all guys you liked.

I have found that most of, if not all of, my big wins come from when I maximize my core, mixing in low-rostered plays.

3.     DraftKings is more fun. FanDuel is easier to win. Which one matters most to you?

If you are trying to profit consistently, FanDuel is a much easier site for MMEing showdowns. You are only able to pick 5 guys as opposed to 6 on DraftKings, which limits the combinations you can make (which is what you want). The MVP prices don’t change when they are moved from the flex, limiting the combinations you can make compared to DraftKings.  There are also price floors on FanDuel of $5,000 as opposed to $100 on DraftKings, which again limits the combinations therefore increasing your chances of winning due to minimizing the number of combinations that can be produced.

4.     Have a method for your salary parameters (this tends to matter more on FanDuel)

It’s a broken record here, but this also helps limit combinations. This is how I do it (and I doubt anyone else does). I want to look over the prices and determine where the gap is for a player who could not possibly outscore a higher-priced stud player. 

For this example, let’s say I am on FanDuel and Travis Kelce is $10,000 while Skyy Moore is $5,000. I do not see a scenario where both play a full game and Moore scores more than Kelce, so I am going to limit my range of outcomes to a salary that would never allow Moore over Kelce. 

In this example, I am subtracting $5,000 (Moore’s salary) from $10,000 (Kelce’s salary). I get $5,000. So, my salary range becomes $49,999 (because I am never playing full salary) to $45,000. I am then going to add a dollar to the $45,000 making it $45,001. This will not allow combinations on the opto with Skyy Moore when Travis Kelce would have fit in that same lineup.

This can be a much larger gap on DraftKings due to price floors dropping lower. There are also cases where I have seen leaving over $10,000 on the table win by just stacking defenses and kickers plus skill players (not quarterbacks) in one-off scenarios. For example, when the Denver Broncos played the Indianapolis Colts on primetime two seasons ago, neither team scored a touchdown. In these game-specific examples, salary parameters don’t matter, but these are few and far between and I don’t recommend chasing them. 

Other General Rules for Showdown (unless otherwise stated in the MNF, TNF, or SNF game breakdowns)

Don’t use an RB and his backup in the same lineup, in most cases. 

  • There are team schemes where this could work such as Raheem Mostert with De’Von Achane, but it is still unlikely (not impossible) that they both do enough to make the optimal, given there are no egregious pricing errors. Most of the time when there are two solid options both RBs are priced up making it even more difficult for both guys, who play the same position, to pay off. Pick only one unless I specifically say not to in the game breakdowns. 

Don’t use a WR and his depth chart “backup” in the same lineup. 

  • It is unlikely they both make the optimal lineup
  • Can it happen where both make the optimal? Yes, it can. Does it happen often? No, it does not. Stick to this method each week and it will pay off over the season. 

Don’t use a TE and his backup in the same lineup

  • I encourage taking stabs on TE2 or TE3 but almost never with the starter in the same lineup. There are only so many TE touchdowns to go around. When you will really benefit is when the TE1 leaves the game early then you have his backup at 2% owned.

Don’t use more than one low-usage player in a lineup. 

  • These are typically bench players. 
  • This means making a group of all low-usage players, from both teams, and allowing a max of one. This includes QB, WR, RB, and TE. You only have so many positions to fill and taking a combo of guys, who might not see more than a snap or two isn’t the way to win in Showdowns. You just need one low-owned guy to separate you from the field. 

In most cases, I fade two quarterbacks in the same lineup on FanDuel, not on DraftKings. 

  • This happens naturally. If I have a QB, who is more of a passer than a runner, I want 2 pass catchers from him. There are only 5 spots to fill on FanDuel so that means 2 QBs and 2 pass catchers from each are not going to fit (like it can on DraftKings)
  • If you have 2 QBs who can run, like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts, I back off this rule somewhat. If this is Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield I lean into it more. 
  • On DraftKings you see double QB pairings pay off a decent number of the time so there is no reason to limit them on that particular site. 

Don’t play more than two pass catchers from a team without rostering their QB. 

  • If two WRs, TEs, or strictly pass catching RBs exceed value, their QB is having a good game as well

Always pair a QB with two pass catchers from the same team

  • This does not apply to QBs who are known to score on the ground like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and whoever else may emerge this season
  • I still want to pair them with at least 1 pass catcher (WR, TE, RB) regardless of the upside they bring with their legs. 

Never play a QB naked. 

  • Could Lamar Jackson score every touchdown by himself? I suppose he could in a perfect scenario, but it is much more likely he does not. If you start playing QBs naked after seeing him win a GPP once alone, you could get into a vicious cycle of trying to chase the improbable resulting in losing your bankroll fast.

Do not use more than half of your roster against your defense. 

Do not use the opposing defense against your QB CPT/MVP in your lineup

  • If Patrick Mahomes is the highest-salary player, and pays off enough to be the optimal CPT, it is very unlikely the opposing defense had a night worth rostering

If you play a WR or TE in the CPT or MVP/CPT spot, you have to roster their QB in the flex.

  • If the WR or TE goes off, their QB did enough to make the optimal

Don’t play backup QB’s if they are not named as the starter

Don’t neglect your kickers

  • They are some of the most reliable options to consistently put up fantasy points. Of course, you need to take into account extreme matchups and severe weather games, but this does not happen often. 

Having one “punt” player is usually enough. 

  • You don’t need to worry about choosing all low-owned guys

Pair your kicker with at least one RB, WR, or TE

  • Someone has to move the ball down the field to get the kicker in range. 

Kickers and Defenses do not make for a reliable CPT/MVP option

  • Skip them and use quarterbacks and skill players

If you are new to MMEing showdown slates this might seem like a lot to digest. The truth is winning money playing DFS and it is a lot of work. If you are trying to just get lucky without putting in the effort, you are likely not going to be profitable. The rules I have listed above should be considered very highly when you are building. Set aside some time before the slate knowing you have work to do.

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PENN Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden initially promised that ESPN BET would be live in New York by late August, just in time for the college football season. However, as September begins and the NFL season looms, ESPN BET remains inactive in one of the country’s most crucial sports betting markets.

Delayed Launch Amid High Expectations

During the PENN Entertainment Q2 earnings report on August 8, Snowden announced the highly anticipated ESPN BET launch in New York. But despite those claims, the platform has yet to debut in the Empire State. The sports betting community expected ESPN BET to make a splash by the start of the college football season, but even as teams like Florida State have already played multiple games, the app remains unavailable in New York.

One challenge for ESPN BET in New York is the state’s steep 51% tax on online sports betting revenue, which could limit the promos and bonuses available to users compared to other state launches. Snowden emphasized this, noting that ESPN BET would take a “disciplined approach” to customer engagement due to the high tax burden.

Can ESPN BET Launch in Time for NFL Kickoff?

As the NFL season kicks off this Thursday, September 5, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Baltimore Ravens, sports betting operators are preparing for a massive influx of wagers. New York, being the largest sports betting market in the country, will be a pivotal battleground for ESPN BET. However, with the platform still dark in the state, it risks missing out on a crucial early season surge.

There are still prime opportunities for ESPN BET to capitalize on this weekend’s full slate of games, including the New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 8, and Monday Night Football featuring the New York Jets against the San Francisco 49ers on September 9. These matchups are high-stakes betting opportunities, but only if ESPN BET can launch in time.

Struggles in Other States and the Need for Strong NFL Performance

Since its initial launch in November 2023, ESPN BET has struggled to break into the top three of sports betting operators in many states where it’s licensed, trailing behind heavyweights like FanDuel and DraftKings. If ESPN BET hopes to gain ground on these market leaders, a strong performance during the NFL season is critical. Launching in New York, the most lucrative sports betting market in the U.S., will be key to achieving this.

Access to New York Through Wynn Acquisition

ESPN BET’s entry into New York was made possible through PENN Entertainment’s acquisition of Wynn Interactive Holdings’ New York online sports betting license earlier this year. In February, PENN finalized a deal to acquire WSI US, LLC from Wynn for $25 million, securing ESPN BET’s access to the highly coveted New York market.

This acquisition was a significant step, as PENN Entertainment previously failed to secure one of New York’s nine initial online sports betting licenses during its 2021 joint application with Fanatics Betting and Gaming and Kambi. That bid projected $1 billion in incremental tax revenue for the state over a decade but was ultimately unsuccessful.

Will ESPN BET Be Ready?

With the NFL season officially starting this week, all eyes are on ESPN BET to see if it can capitalize on the sports betting frenzy in New York. Launching by Sunday, September 8, or at the latest, Monday Night Football on September 9, could be critical for gaining a foothold in the competitive New York market. However, with no official launch date announced yet, ESPN BET is running out of time to make its mark.

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The NFL is set to kick off this week, and the American Gaming Association (AGA) is predicting that the 2024 season will be the most bet-on since sports betting was legalized nationwide in 2018. According to the AGA’s first official projection for this NFL season, American adults are expected to wager more than $35 billion at legal sportsbooks during the 2024 NFL season.

A Massive NFL Betting Season Ahead

If the AGA’s predictions hold, this year’s betting handle will surpass last year’s NFL season total of $26.7 billion. This massive jump in NFL wagering is based on data from states that separate handle and revenue totals between college and professional football.

Newcomers to the sports betting marketMaine, North Carolina, and Vermont—will contribute to this surge as they experience their first full season of NFL sports betting.

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller highlighted the importance of legal sports betting and consumer protection in a recent statement:
“With the excitement of another NFL season upon us, Americans are placing their bets with confidence, knowing the legal sports betting market prioritizes consumer protection and responsibility. As the season unfolds, the AGA and our members remain dedicated to working with the league, regulators, and other stakeholders to ensure fans have the knowledge and tools to keep sports betting a safe, fun part of the gameday experience.”

Responsible Gaming Remains a Priority

The AGA also shared insights into the growing emphasis on responsible gaming. Recent data shows that 90% of past-year sports bettors consider it important that their chosen sportsbook is legal and regulated, while 88% believe the industry is committed to responsible gaming practices. Additionally, 96% of past-year bettors are familiar with at least one responsible gaming resource.

Can ESPN BET Capitalize on the NFL Betting Surge?

The AGA’s optimistic estimates could be beneficial for ESPN BET, which is looking to gain momentum during its first full NFL season. ESPN BET, owned by PENN Entertainment, faces an important few months as it competes against DraftKings and FanDuel, the current market leaders.

A critical move for ESPN BET would be launching its platform in New York, the largest sports betting market in the U.S. Although PENN Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden previously said ESPN BET would launch in late August, this has yet to happen.

If ESPN BET hopes to start the season strong, launching in New York ahead of the NFL season will be a crucial first step in positioning itself as a top player in the growing online sports betting industry.

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And then there was one! The PGA Tour has been whittled down, as just the Top 30 golfers remain as they battle for the FedEx Cup. With the strange format of starting strokes and a completely renovated golf course, this week is a much watch.

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