Is there any #FantasyFootball Gold left on the Wire? Who’s the Gem of the Waiver Wire who can win your league? Fantasy Football GMs tend to overreact after week 1 and leave some gold on the wires. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo dives into some players to stash who could pay off HUGE dividends down the stretch.
Week 1 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a big game to cover as the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets and a team in win-now mode. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
You may have heard of the 49ers RB. He’s pretty good at football. So there’s no hiding that Christian McCaffrey will be used in a heavy percentage of lineups tonight. The key will be to understand how to use CMac. As much as you heard about San Fran’s D last year, the Jets were just as impressive. Because they were so good against the pass, teams often tried to exploit them in the run game. While they ended 24th in rushing yards allowed, they ended up 3rd in DVOA against the run. That’s because the Jets saw the 3rd most rushing attempts against them. New York ended up with the 10th lowest ypc, 4.1, and allowed just 14 rushing TD’s, 11th least in the league.
The good news for McCaffrey owners is that the Jets did allow the 7th most points to opposing RB’s last year. And they allowed 100-yard rushing games to three different backs that are towards the upper echelon of the league in Isaiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. And none of those offensive lines matched up to the 49ers in run blocking grades as the Raiders were 14th, Chiefs were 16th and Giants were 30th in run blocking in 2023. San Francisco, on the other hand, was 1st in run blocking grade last year and just re-signed their star LT Trent Williams.
Christian McCaffrey’s backup entering the season looks to be Jordan Mason as Eli Mitchell hit the IR during training camp. Mason did get some touches last year and flashed with a 5.1 ypc. I think there’s value in Mason tonight based on his potential to shed some of McCaffrey’s workload.
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Move Mason up to a must play. His workload plus salary will let you afford Samuel/Hall/Wilson.
Tier 1: Jordan Mason
Tier 2: None
The Jets have one of the best defensive backfields in the league led by star CB Sauce Gardner. According to PFF, the Jets ended the season with the highest pass coverage rating in the league. Statistically speaking, the pass defense finished 2nd overall in DVOA and 2nd in pass yards allowed.
New York also imposes a good pass rush as they registered 48 sacks last season ranking in the top 10 in football. However, they are without DE Hasaan Reddick who was traded to the Jets in the offseason but has failed to report due to a contractual stalemate. So the Jets will now rely on inexperienced ends in Jermaine Johson and Michael Clemons to create pressure on the QB. One good news for the Jets is the 49ers were ranked 24th in pass block rate in 2023. And PFF rates their Offensive Line at 25th best heading into 2024. Their strength is run-blocking and they do struggle in pass-blocking. Even with the return of Trent Williams we could expect some conditioning issues and rust.
I think this is a very tough matchup for all 49er WR’s based on the great coverage skills of the Jets plus the 49ers difficultly in the pass blocking game. However, I do like Deebo Samuel because he can be used in the running game and we see that is a great place to attack the Jets. Plus with new, or inexperienced DE’s, the jet sweep could be deployed early and often. The big question mark is Brandon Aiyuk who signed late in the preseason. As with many late signees, I expect some rust. But more importantly I expect him to see a ton of Sauce tonight thus lowering his value. More often than not, Gardner did follow around the other team’s top WR each game.
With the injury to rookie WR Ricky Pearsall the 49ers will once again use Jauan Jennings as WR3. He will provide some salary relief and value tonight. But one WR to keep an eye on is rookie Jacob Cowing. HC Kyle Shannahan has great praise for Cowing stating “the game wasn’t too big for him”. The 49ers will likely use him on special teamsi ncluding punt returns.
Tier 1: Deebo Samuel
Tier 2: Brandon Aiyuk, Jacob Cowing
Punts: Jauan Jennings
Though the Jets are tough against WR’s, they are more foregiving to TE’s. That showed in the stats last year as the Jets allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s. The biggest showing was David Njoku’s 134 yard performance in Week 16. For those reasons as well as the Jets looking to take out WR’s, Kittle should be highly considered for your lineups and even the CPT spot.
Tier 1: George Kittle
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
Like the 49ers, the Jets have one of the most dynamic RB’s in the game in Breece Hall. In most season long fantasy drafts, McCaffrey and Hall were the first two RB’s off the board. On the surface, it could be tough sledding tonight for the Jets running game. That’s because SF allowed the 3rd least rushing yards last season. And they finished 4th in rushing defense DVOA. But as we look deeper, there are points to be had here against a great SF defense. For one, teams were often down early against SF and abandoned the run. The 49ers D saw the least amount of rushing attempts in 2023. And according to PFF, they ranked 11th in rushing defense grading last season.
And here’s another reason to be optimistic about Hall tonight, the 49ers allowed the 8th most receiving yards to RB’s last season. On average, RB’s caught 5.3 balls per game for 36 yards against SF. And Hall is not your average receiver as he finished last season with 76 catches of his own.
The Jets drafted RB Braelon Allen in the fourth round to battle with other incumbents such as Israel Abanikanda for the backup RB job. And by all accounts, Allen won that job and will see the field tonight against SF. We do expect him to give Hall a break at times and get anywhere upwards of 5 touches tonight. He would need to punch one of those in the endzone for his value to hit.
Tier 1: Breece Hall
Tier 2: Braelon Allen (Punt Play)
The Jets are starting year two of the Aaron Rodgers experiment. And because of his tragic season ending injury in Week 1 of the 2023 season, we never got to see how good he could make WR Garrett Wilson. Instead, Wilson had to see passes from bad throwers such as Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemien. And his production was still very good as Wilson finished as WR 24 in 2023. What was most notable is that he was 4th in targets with 168. So now, the hope is, that he’ll have many more balls on target that he can actually catch because it’s Aaron Rodgers. And he can now turn into the top 10 WR we’ve all been waiting for.
The other good news is that the 49ers ranked 18th in adjusted points to fantasy WR’s last season. They have a solid CB in Charvarius Ward but the others rank in the bottom half of PFF’s DB grades. Meaning this defensive backfield can be had.
As for the other WR’s, free agent Mike Williams has been cleared to play and will be a big target downfield and in the redzone for Rodgers. Additionally, WR Allen Lazard’s production should see a spike with Rodgers at the helm based on their chemistry from the Green Bay days. Xavier Gipson will likely return kicks so his value goes up because of the potential for a special teams TD. I’m punting on the other low value WR’s in Malachi Corley and Irvin Charles.
Tier 1: Garrett Wilson
Tier 2: Mike Williams, Allen Lazard
The 49ers were good against TE’s as they allowed just 3 receiving touchdowns to the Tight End position in 2023. Fred Warner is one of the best LB’s in the game and can cover almost any TE. While I’m excited to see if this is finally the breakout year for Jets TE Tyler Conklin, this is a difficult matchup. Overall the 49ers were the 3rd best unit against TE’s. The one optimistic thought is that he will see the field plenty and could get more downfield routes if Mike Williams is on a snap count.
Tier 1: Tyler Conklin
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a stud RB or WR. I’m passing on QB’s at the MVP position because of the opposing defense’s ability to rush the passer and defend on the back end. Both units ranked high against the run, but there are metrics showing you can succeed in the rushing attack. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we did see a combo of Jameson Williams and Lions RB’s hit. So I can see a scenario where we package Hall and Wilson as well as McCaffrey or Kittle/Samuel.
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jordan Mason, Mike Williams
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jordan Mason, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy
DraftKings CPT Punt: Mike Williams
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Garrett Wilson over 5.5 catches (-160 FD) / Garrett Wilson most receiving yards (+125 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the LA Rams take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
Los Angeles Rams
Running Back
In 2023, the Detroit Lions were the best team against the run. They gave up 15.7 DK against running backs last season, which was the least amount of points in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams are entering this season with their star third-year back, Kyren Williams, leading the way. His 1144 rushing yards put him third in the NFL, and he tied for seventh in the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 12. When these two teams met in the NFC Wild Card last season, Williams broke his seven-game 85+ rushing yard streak as he only ran for 61. Williams and the whole Rams backfield isn’t my priority, as I would rather focus on their passing game.
Before we head to the Rams wide receiver room, I want to briefly mention their rookie running back, Blake Corum. Corum finished his career at Michigan strong by setting the record for most rushing touchdowns in a season (27) and most total touchdowns (28). As I mentioned above, Corum isn’t a priority for me, but I will still fit him into some squads.
Tier 1: Kyren Williams
Tier 2: Blake Corum
Wide Receiver
While the Lions were great against running backs, they were terrible against wide receivers last season. In 2023, the Lions gave up 41 DK per game.
The Rams have two great wideouts that can cause damage to the Lion’s secondary. The more experienced of the two is Cooper Kupp. Despite missing five games last season, Kupp still caught 59 balls for 737 yards and five touchdowns. He didn’t have a good game against these Lions during their wildcard encounter the previous season. Kupp should draw the attention of Brian Branch when he lines up in the slot. Branch was the DB that shut down Kupp during their playoff game. So for my main Ram wideout, I am going with his partner in crime, Puka Nacua.
Nacua broke out as a rookie last season. He finished with 105 receptions, 1486 yards, and six touchdowns. One of his best games came in the playoff game, where he had 9 receptions for 181 yards and a score. Nacua should see Terrion Arnold for portions of the game. While the rookie CB looked good in college, being thrown into the fire against Nacua should be beneficial for the Rams.
The Rams have a few other wide receivers that will see the field throughout the game. Of those, the best is Demarcus Robinson. He is entering his ninth season in the NFL but has yet to break out as a top wide receiver. I don’t expect him to break out this year, but with all the attention on Kupp and Nacua, he should see some space.
Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson
Punts: Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington (Super Punt Play)
Tight End
The Lions gave up the thirteenth most points to tight ends on DK. They gave up 12.5 DK per game.
With Tyler Higbee being placed on the PUP list, the Rams will be without their starting tight end for the foreseeable future. In his place, the Rams will be using Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen to fill his role. Of the two, I prefer Parkinson for Showdown. While Allen should be more familiar with the playbook after being with the Rams last season, Parkinson has looked like a better tight end during his time in Seattle.
Tier 1: Colby Parkinson
Tier 2: Davis Allen
Detroit Lions
Running Back
Similarly to the Lions, the Rams were one of the better teams against running backs last season. They gave up 16.8 DK, which was only 1.1 more than the Lions did.
The Lions have two good running backs in their backfield. I’ll start with their sophomore back, Gibbs, who had a good rookie season. During his rookie season, Gibbs showed that he can have production in both the run and passing game. He had 1261 total yards (945 rushing and 316 receiving) and 11 total touchdowns. With how good the Rams were last season against running backs, Gibbs will need to use both sides of his game for the Lions to have a shot at winning. During last season’s wild-card game, Gibbs caused more damage to the Rams in the receiving game than the running game.
The other good running back that the Lions have is David Montgomery. In his first season with the Lions last year, Montgomery led the Lions in rushing yards and total touchdowns. He is the better runner of the two running backs, as he is not heavily involved in the passing game. While I think both backs are in play, I am giving the slight edge to Gibbs since even without Aaron Donald, the Rams should still be tough to run on.
Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs
Tier 2: David Montgomery
Wide Receiver
The Rams did not do a good job last season at preventing big fantasy games from opposing wide receivers. They gave up 38.2 DK, which was the 8th most in the league.
The Lions have a top-five WR in all of football. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a breakout season last year, finishing the season with 1515 yards and 10 touchdowns on 119 receptions. St. Brown is in a great spot to have a successful start to his season. He should see a lot of Quentin Lake during the game. The two matched up against each other during the wild card game, in which St. Brown got the best of him late in the game to secure the win for the Lions. We should see more of the same on Sunday, which makes St. Brown one of the best plays on the entire slate.
The number two and three receivers for the Lions are Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond. Of the two, I would lean toward Jameson William because he has a safer floor. I like Kalif Raymond more as a punt play that has a shot to go off.
Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Tier 2: Jameson Williams
Punt: Kalif Raymond
Tight End
The Los Angeles Rams gave up the 6th most DK points (13.6) to opposing tight ends. They gave up the 2nd most receiving touchdowns by tight ends last season.
On the Lions, there is only one tight end I want any exposure on my team, and that’s Sam LaPorta. LaPorta played in at least 75% of snaps in all but one game last season. With his high number of snaps played, LaPorta was able to average six targets per game. Like I said, he is the only Lion tight end I am looking at, and in terms of pass catchers, I would put him only behind Amon-Ra St.Brown.
Tier 1: Sam LaPorta
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Amon-Ra St.Brown, Puka Nacua
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Amon-Ra St.Brown, Puka Nacua
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta
DraftKings CPT Punt: Kalif Raymond
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Demarcus Robinson Over 2.5 Receptions (+100 DK)
Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield
Per last season, load up a quarterback against the Washington Commanders. They were ranked dead last in DVOA (per FTN data), against the position. The opposing teams perceived WR1 did the most damage to the Commanders (as they rank 32nd against the position) giving up the most yardage per game. Through 17 Weeks the Commanders gave up the most total yards to all receivers combined, and the most receiving TDs (29) while being targeted at only the 11th-highest rate. Mayfield found his stride at the end of last season, and now the Bucs add a talented receiver in Jalen McMillian. Add that to the already dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as pass-catching back Rachaad White and you have yourself a serious air attack, if the Bucs O-Line can keep Baker clean.
There will be more on the individual receiving matchups in the Wide Receiver section below.
Justin Fields note
This is conditional if Fields were to start.
It is only a Week 1 and we might already might have a min-priced Justin Fields going up against a poor defensive line, with a much-improved secondary, in his hometown of Atlanta. With what Fields can do with his legs, and this week’s pricing, I don’t think playing him naked or paring him with George Pickens is out of the question. The main concern is how Arthur Smith will manage to screw up his rushing upside. The $5,000 price tag must be seriously considered if you find it necessary to spend up at other positions.
Others to consider:
Running Back
Kenneth Walker
The Denver Broncos should have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL. They are filled with inexperience and unreliable commodities, outside of Zach Allen. In 2023 were the second-worst team vis DVOA against the run, only behind the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks revamped their offensive line adding Connor Williams who was in Miami last season (and we all know what the Dolphins run game did to the Broncos). Kenneth Walker is a reliable volume back with slate winning upside at only $6,100 on DraftKings. While the Seahawks are poised to pass more under Ryan Grubbs’s offensive scheme, they should still put the rock in Walker’s chest enough times to stack up some yards and score once, or twice, especially if Geno struggles. One way or another, you want to be invested in the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday.
Devin Singletary
This is a GPP play. The Vikings are set up to be one of the worst defenses stopping the run this season. They made zero moves in the offseason to suggest that they will not be at the bottom of the pack this year. Devin Singletary is an unquestioned all-purpose bell cow for the New York Giants. Last season, Singletary was on an offense that thrived through the air in the Houston Texans, and he was not often asked to carry to workload. He got 20+ carries in 4 games last year and in those contests averaged 21.6 DK points. At a salary of $5,700, that would be enough from a low-owned, pass-catching running back. The main issue is seeing how a revamped, healthy Giants O’Line will perform. I think they can exceed their low expectations, especially in positive matchups like the one they see this Sunday.
Rachaad White
I am higher on the passing game as you will see when you complete this article. If you were to fade the pass game completely I think you HAVE to play White.
Jonathan Taylor Note:
JT has played against the Houston Texans 6 times. He averages 135 rush yards, 22.7 carries, and 6 YPC, per game. During that span, he has 7 rushing TDs (not that last year’s stats will be this stats. Oddly enough the Houston Texans were ranked 2nd in DVOA against the run in 2023 giving up the 13th last fantasy points on the ground. The matchup doesn’t say “Play Taylor”, but the history, if you are into that kind of thing, certainly does.
Others to consider:
Update: Adding Joe Mixon to the pool.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill
He is going to score at least one TD and drop over 100 yards because that’s what Tyreek Hill does. That should be enough on a Week 1 slate with plenty of value to fill in around him. You would be wise to get some Hill so you don’t feel like a complete bozo when he takes a 70-yarder to the house in the first quarter. There is no need to overthink this one. I know he will be highly owned, so just take the points and know you beat half the field already when he starts to go nuclear. You can’t control everyone else lineup, you can only control yours. And your job is to put up points.
Not that it matters that much with Hill but the Dolphins should struggle more this season to run the ball judging by the changes they made to the offensive line. The Jaguars secondary is also the softest spot on their defense. It will not be easy to run on them this season but throwing over the top on Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby is something that Tua and Reek should be able to accomplish with little resistance.
Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans draws the best primary matchup against Michael Davis, who allowed 1.52 YPRC in 2023, the most of the Commander’s worst-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders were also ranked dead last in DVOA covering the WR1 in 2023. Evans is the priority.
Chris Godwin will slide in behind in also a favorable spot, and much lower ownership aside from full team stacks. He should still take a good chunk of the slot snaps (more on that below). He didn’t flash slate-winning upside last season, yet he is in one of the best spots you can be in as an NFL receiver. Dan Quinn is taking over the Washington defense, and they will be improved over the next couple of seasons, yet they don’t appear to have the bodies quite yet.
Jalen McMillan is a true slot receiver who will get his first career start lining up primarily against rookie Mike Sainristil, the slot corner from Michigan who is no slouch. I would project Godwin to also get a fair split of the slot snaps, but we need to see how it all plays out on the field in Week 1. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are sure to draw Dan Quinn’s new defense eye over the somewhat forgotten Washington Huskies product. McMillon is a boom-or-bust option, who likely scores most of his production off a big play, not a huge volume.
Andrei Iosiavas
All of the Bengals receivers get a bump with Tee Higgins out clearly. Ja’Marr Chase is still undetermined and will draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, who is very talented. No, he can’t “stop” Chase, but can he limit the stud wide receiver who has hardly practiced at all and may not be in peak game shape? Yes, he can to some extent. He has proven so in the first 4 games of last season, before he got injured, winning Defensive Rookie of the Month.
Iosaivas will line up in the slot primarily. If the preseason lack of playing time in the preseason is any indication, the Bengals are highly confident in him. He was also reported to have a phenomenal camp where he developed even more chemistry with Joe Burrow. Iosiavas was a sleeper last season but never saw/earned the opportunity. Those times appear to have changed with Tyler Boyd now on the Titans and Tee Higgins sitting this one out.
I just want to clarify, this isn’t me saying fade Chase, this is me saying the Iosiavas is a steal at only $3,000.
Jakobi Meyers or Davante Adams
Someone is going to have a good day on the Raiders but I am having a hard time putting my finger on which guy, perhaps because I like them both.
WR1 Davante Adams runs about 50% of his routes on the left, where Asante Samuel will be, and 33% of his routes on the right where Kristian Fulton will be. Fulton gave up the most production last season (1.49 YPRC) and the most air yards (13.2). Fulton had the 7th worst Yards Per Route run coverage out of all active corners that are returning to a starting position this season. The Chargers overall were ranked 27th against WR1 while being ranked 23rd against the WR2. They were sneaky good at covering the TE, at times, which is making me rethink my Brock Bowers love (only for one week).
Jakobi Meyers is so intriguing here at only $5,000. He will just be flip-flopping sides with Adams, as well as taking around 25% of the slot snaps. He will get the same soft coverage while being only 1% owned. This is a guy who had double-digit targets in 5 games last season, with a ceiling of 29.1 DraftKings points. A lot has been made about how Gardner Minshew “made” Michael Pittman last season, but let’s not forget he also helped get WR2 Josh Downs off the ground. Meyers is much more developed than Downs and has plenty of underrated upside this Sunday.
Terry McLaurin
He will move all over the field drawing coverage from Jamal Dean (1,28 YPRC), Zyon McCollum (1.03 YPRC), and the rookie from Georgia Tykee Smith. Tampa Bay was ranked 25th against the WR1 in 2023 while having the 14th-best passing defense via DVOA. Scary Terry’s DraftKings price tag of only $5,600 is downright mispriced for his upside in this matchup.
Chris Olave
He is coming in a bit under the radar. He takes on a Carolina team that was bottom 10 in defense efficiency against the pass. He moves all over the field seeing Jaycee Horn, who gives up the most air yards per target (12), Troy Hill in the slot, who gives up the most YPRC (1,26), and rookie Mike Jackson. Olave commands a 26% target share, which is top 10 in the league. With the uncertainties about “vultures” in the rush game for the Saints, it is tough to press the button on Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill, but the passing game is quite clear. Olave is that dude.
Others to consider/mix in MME
Tight End
Best Spend up: Dalton Kincaid
Zach Ertz
This is a cheap GPP play that I have tried to talk myself out of, yet it makes too much sense to completely avoid. The forgotten vet tight end, Zach Ertz, is healthy and reuniting with Cliff Kingsbury, who helped prop him up to a fantasy tight end stud in seasons past. In Ertz’s last Week 1 with Kingsbury as his HC, he got 10 targets from Joshua Dobbs. Ertz isn’t in Washington by chance, Kingsbury wanted him there to be a reliable veteran presence in the locker room and for rookies Jayden Daniels and TE2 Ben Sinnott.
The opposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up the single most targets to the TE position in the 2023 regular season. They will be facing a rookie quarterback who may be forced to check it down more than while he was in LSU because his receiver room actually got a downgrade from what he is used to in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. There is also a small chance of wind and rain around the Stadium on Sunday. That is just something we have to keep an eye on. At this point, it doesn’t appear to be much of a factor if any. There are a lot of DFS players that are targeting this game, yet I have not heard Ertz’s name mentioned once. He is coming in at 1% owned while being $3,600 on DraftKings.
Ja’Tavon Sanders
Due to injuries, the starting tight end for the Carolina Panthers, Ja’Tavon Sanders, is only $2,500 on DraftKings. Look, we all know the quarterback play isn’t going to be great, but it is still not going to be easy to run on the Saints so the Panthers are going to not have much of a choice but to throw it maybe more than they are comfortable with. The Saints allowed the third most passing touchdowns to tight ends last year on the 19thmost targets to the position. What the Longhorns product has going for him is he is a big body with fantastic hands. His after-the-catch burst leaves something to be desired but is excels in getting separation and coming down with the ball. At only $2,500, if this guy scores you are going to be set up in a big way if you hop on the train early.
Brock Bowers
I am incredibly intrigued with Bowers as a prospect as well as how much they moved him around in the preseason scheming to get him open. If you are unfamiliar with his game just go watch the preseason and college highlights and you will immediately become a believer. The only issue is the lingering foot issue for a guy who struggled with injuries in college. His breakout is going to come, given he stays healthy, so if you are making multiple lineups, and don’t have any other Raiders, it might be wise to get ahead of the field on him before the price tag rises. If he stays healthy, he will be a top 4 TE by the end of the season.
Others to consider:
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.
Win Daily Sports is flying high into the first Sunday of the NFL Season. We’ve already had some solid hits on the Thursday and Friday Showdown’s. But now comes our wheelhouse, which is the Sunday Main Slate. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow but before then, hop into the projections and lineup optimizers readily available for all our members.
Like last year, I will be providing my top four games each week. Last season was a resounding success as I hit on 63% of my plays during the season and finished with a 49-29 record. You can check out Week 18’s article which gives the final tally as to how we finished.
I will also provide a pick for a popular pool that many casual and avid fans play called an Eliminator or Survivor Pool. You must pick one team to win on any given week in this format. The catch is if that team loses, you are out of the pool.
And if your team wins, you can’t select them again for the rest of the season. I’ve won several of these in the past years, and my strategy is simple: WIN the week don’t WAIT! Only canvass the future a little, and instead, focus on the now.
Whether it’s Russel Wilson or Justin Fields, I like the Falcons to come away with a victory and cover in week 1 against Pittsburgh. There are several factors in play here but the largest one for me is the difference in offensive talent. First off, Atlanta likely had the worst play at QB in 2023 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke battling for worst in the league. So it was no surprise the Falcons invested heavily in the offseason at QB and brought in Kirk Cousins as well as drafting QB Michael Penix. Overall, Atlanta has the superior offensive units by owning the better QB, RB, WR’s, TE and O Line. Speaking of the offensive line, the Falcons return all five starters from a solid unit last year. This was a unit that ranked 4th in pass blocking and 7th in run blocking a season ago.
Defensively, I will give Pittsburgh a slight edge as they can provide a solid pass rush and have quality players in the defensive backfield. But Atlanta strengthened theirs in the preseason with the addition of LB/DE Matthew Judon which helps one of their biggest weaknesses which was pass rush (no player had over 6.5 sacks for Atlanta last season). You could argue their biggest splash on defense was bringing in Rams DC Raheem Morris as their head coach as he’s been at the helm of several top 5 defenses.
Don’t forget about one key intangible here, and that’s the person calling the plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons and inexplicably ignored his best player, Bijan Robinson, and fumbled every move at the QB position. Now he calls plays for the Steelers and will undoubtedly be motivated himself to prove Atlanta wrong. But instead, I think the motivation will come more from the 50,000+ fans in the seats.
Lastly, I see a significant market imbalance as 65% of the bets are coming in on the Steelers yet 60% of the money is supporting the Falcons. That tells me where the smart money is, and I love to follow that trail right to the ticket window.
Last year was supposed to be the next step for the Jags. In 2022 they came out of nowhere and won the AFC South under HC Doug Pederson. Then they won a playoff game, after being down by 28 points. And while they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, they did hold their own. Which is why they wore the crown of “next one up” and ended up as a team that couldn’t handle expectations as they crashed hard with a late season collapse.
So, one can understand why everyone is picking the Dolphins this weekend. For one, Miami is a public team that displays a high-octane offense and has character at the coaching and skill positions. The Jags are the opposite, as their coach is barely heard from as well as their QB and other stars. In one Yahoo pool I’m in, 91% of the picks ATS are on the Dolphins.
Which means we are zigging while everyone else is zagging. But this is more about the Dolphins who we all have a saying about. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Miami proved that to be real as they were 1-6 against teams with winning records last year, with their one victory coming by 2 points against Dallas. Even more alarming is they were outscored by 100 points in those 7 games.
While Jacksonville just missed out on the playoffs, they were a winning team at 9-8. And they have talent that’s equivalent to the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins are a heavy public play so I’ll swerve and go against the populous. I expect the Jags to be motivated by last years failures and ome ready to play and win this game outright on Sunday.
The Washinton Commanders are generating some good buzz lately as HC Dan Quinn takes over a team that has been often overshadowed by ownership issues and poor play at QB. They used the 2nd pick in the draft to select Heisman Trophy winner QB Jaylen Daniels. And he’s looked the part in training camp and preseason. Almost like a young RG III who burst on the scene his rookie season and propelled Washington into the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Bucs are fighting against Father Time and somehow delayed the inevitable rebuild for another year. But it did put them in a precarious position as QB Baker Mayfield played so well that they had to sign him to an extension. I find that as more of a problem than solution as Mayfield isn’t the long term answer, as witnessed by his 2022 season when he was found jumping team to team. We’ve also seen WR Mike Evans continue to perform and high standards but he now enters his age 31 season meaning his production will soon see a dip.
The other trouble is the Bucs can’t run the ball efficiently. Which is exactly what HC Dan Quinn wants to do to offenses, which is make them one-dimensional. I like the matchup of the unknown (WASH) versus the overachiever (TB) here. Also factor in that Vegas doesn’t have teams fully figured out yet. Last year in Week 1, underdogs went 10-6 ATS and road teams went 12-4 ATS. I think this is a spot that’s dangerous for Vegas as they’re seeing 68% of the money come in on Washington.
The Seahawks made a big change in the offseason as they parted ways with long-time HC Pete Carroll and brought in the Ravens DC Mike MacDonald to assume the role as Head Coach. While Carroll still has a role with the organization, this is clearly a new genre and one in which MacDonald has full autonomy. The Hawks were abysmal on defense last year and he has the pedigree and coaching aptitude to change that immediately.
The trouble for Denver is they have a rookie QB in Bo Nix starting his first NFL game. And it’s being played in one of the most raucous stadiums in the NFL in Lumen Field. Yes, Nix played in Oregon the last 2 years but that won’t get him prepared for the level of noise the 12th man brings.
Finally, this game has one of the largest deltas in ticket handles versus amount of money bet. At the time of this writing we’re seeing 47% of the tickets come in on Seattle against the spread. But more importantly, 74% of the money is on the Seahawks. This could impact the line by tomorrow so keep an eye on that. However, if you can get -6 or less than book it.
The Bengals are in much better shape heading into the first week of the season than they were last year. There O-Line has been addressed and their franchise QB is fully healthy. They also received good news yesterday when star WR Ja’Marr Chase indicated he would play this weekend despite contract talks hitting a stalemate. But the real reason for this play is their opponent, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are considered by most to the be the worst team in football. They have the lowest win total at 4.5. And by all accounts from the preseason, HC Jerrod Mayo has some learning to do. Mayo looked overwhelmed in several situations including his choice of starting QB.
You don’t have many games in which you can use Cincy this year as the AFC North is one of the best divisions in football. So take them when you can and this is definitely one of those situations.
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