Welcome back for another week of the Main Slate Breakdown, where we dissect each game in the afternoon and determine who to target for DFS. Only a ten-gamer for Sunday, but some of which will contain totals in the high-forties, and low fifties. As the playoff picture begins to come into focus in Week 15, some teams will have more incentive to win as opposed to others, who may be looking forward to the draft.
We’ve been on point all season with our decisions, so let’s stay on track for cash games and get a little different for tournaments. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Sunday Main Slate 12/17/23
Chiefs @ Patriots (+7.5) (O/U 37)
Two teams struggling on the offensive side of the ball will battle it out in the Boston area. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has nobody else to catch the football other than Kelce while the Patriots have been playing the hot hand at quarterback all year long. Their defenses and ability to run the ball have kept them both in contests, especially for Kansas City as they barely hang on to the AFC West Division.
Both teams however will be without their starting running backs, as Isaiah Pacheco will miss some time after shoulder surgery and Rhamondre Stevenson is out his second straight game with an ankle. I am focussing all my attention on Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) in this match-up. He’s at a great price for a three-down back (91% snap rate in Week 14) and should continue to see a ton of volume in the passing game (7 REC/72 YDS/1 TD last week) because of the Pats’ lack of talent at quarterback.
Honorable Mentions: Demario Douglas, Rashee Rice
Jets @ Dolphins (-9.5) (O/U 37)
We’ve got an AFC East rematch of the recent Black Friday blowout at the Meadowlands, but this time in sunny Miami. Zach Wilson is back under center for the Jets, who played with a chip on his shoulder in the win against Houston last week. The Dolphins suffered one of their most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing a two-touchdown lead with three minutes left against Tennessee.
The game’s centerpiece enters the weekend questionable in Tyreek Hill, who clearly is the engine in the offense for Miami. If he’s out, we’ll see a ton of Raheem Mostert ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) again. Head Coach Mike McDaniel should focus more on the run game in order to keep his quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out of trouble, and the Jets have recently given up well over 150 yards rushing in their last meeting. If De’Von Achane doesn’t suit up, Mostert will be even more enticing.
As for Gang Green, it’s been the Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall show. Wilson has been top-five in the league in target share and routes run, and Breece is second in the league in targets and receptions to running backs. They’re both priced modestly but keep them in tournaments. The Jets DST ($2,500 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) would be a great play as a defense especially if Tyreek Hill is out, so keep an eye on his status.
Giants @ Saints (-6) (O/U 39)
The Saints welcome the red-hot Giants into New Orleans this weekend, looking to keep their hopes alive in the NFC South. New York, winners of three straight, are still in the hunt for a Wild Card berth but will need some help from other teams. I’m not getting any fantasy vibes out of this contest, but let’s dive in to see where we can find some low-ownership plays.
New Orleans may be without top receiving option Chris Olave due to a bad ankle, if he’s out Rashid Shaheed will have a larger role this weekend, along with running back Alvin Kamara and tight end Taysom Hill seeing an uptick in opportunity. New York has spilled fantasy value to every opposing position all year long.
Big Blue, winners of three straight, have been riding the coattails of its hometown hero Tommy DeVito and his efficiency at quarterback, refusing to turn the ball over. On the road against the 6th DVOA to opposing quarterbacks will be tough to swallow for DFS managers even at his low price tag. Keep him in tournaments, but Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) has emerged once again as the alpha receiver for the Giants. Robinson put up 17 FPTS. last weekend (6 REC/79 YDS/36 YDS RUSH), at his pricetag he can be safely relied on for cash.
Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley
Bears @ Browns (-3) (O/U 38.5)
We’ve got another low total, as the Bears and Justin Fields look to keep the win streak alive on the road against a tough Cleveland defense. The Browns are currently ranked fifth in the playoff picture, thanks to their defense and their veteran presence at quarterback of Joe Flacco. But there’s rain in the forecast, which may slow down the passing in this contest.
Fields did well last week, scoring over 24 FPTS. on committing zero turnovers with two total touchdowns. He’ll be playing for his job once again, but on the road in the rain, against this Browns’ defense, I can’t afford the risk of his salary in cash for him in DFS.
Chicago has stepped it up on defense with the addition of Montez Sweat, so I don’t see Cleveland running all over them. So I’d be a little cautious with Flacco this week, but tight end David Njoku ($4,700 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) should be a pillar for DFS this weekend at the position. He’ll look to replicate his best performance of the season after he racked up 91 yards on six receptions, scoring on two of them. Njoku is a lock for cash and tournaments.
Falcons @ Panthers (+3) (O/U 33.5)
A super-low total in an NFC South match-up where the Falcons look to stay in their playoff/divisional contention while the Carolina Panthers continue to spiral down the ladder of irrelevancy for 2023. With two unreliable quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young set to play in another weather-compromising game, It’s best to default to their defenses and running games, while fading their air attacks.
The Atlanta DST($3,600 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) and Carolina DST($2,800 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel) make a ton of sense, and stacking with a running back from either side could be even better. Bijan Robinson ($6,800 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) and Chuba Hubbard ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) are both in great matchups and may see extra carries if the weather does get out of hand.
Bucs @ Packers (-3.5) (O/U 42.5)
The first-place Bucs visit Lambeau Field to take on a Packers team that is on the outside looking into the playoffs. Tampa has maintained a solid core of offense, primarily made up of Mike Evans and Rachaad White. The Packers have lived and died from the sword of Jordan Love this season, who’s been a two-face for fantasy.
Green Bay has been hammered all year by opposing backs, most recently from the likes of Saquon Barkley and Isaiah Pacheco. Rachaad White ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) will walk onto the field Sunday against the 25th-ranked run defense, a great matchup for a volume back that holds an 80% snap rate for Tampa.
Tampa on the other hand, has been abused through the passing game, as their corners cannot keep up with anyone who lines up across the field from them. But the Packers will be without Christian Watson, one of their top receivers yet again. Both running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon also enter the game questionable. The Packers will need a lot of help on offense from Jayden Reed ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) one more time, as he is clearly Jordan Love’s now number-one option. Reed caught eight targets on Monday night, as well as rushing for 38 yards and a touchdown against the Giants, and will force head coach La Fleur to draw up more plays for the rookie.
Honorable Mention: Tucker Kraft
Texans @ Titans (-3) (O/U 37)
A clash in the AFC South is showing a pretty low total yet we may find some value in a few spots here for DFS. Both teams will be fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, one team will be led by a feisty rookie, another by a seasoned veteran. It has been confirmed, there has been a Case Keenum sighting in Tennessee.
The Texans will be without their rookie phenom C.J. Stroud from a concussion he suffered last weekend, so if you’re looking to get different and save a ton a quarterback, go ahead and take Case Keenum ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense. But the receiving core for Houston will be in shambles, so keep an eye on injury reports for Noah Brown and Nico Collins. A naked Keenum may be a bad idea if his weapons are on the bench, so beware.
The Titans are fresh off one of their best comebacks in franchise history courtesy of a Dolphin disasterous fourth quarter. Quarterback rookie Will Levis ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) showed a lot of passion and will look to keep the momentum going against the 26th DVOA pass defense most recently carved up by Zach Wilson. Pair him up with DeAndre Hopkins ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) or Chig Okonkwo ($2,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) for extra value with a ton of upside.
Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, Derrick Henry
Commanders @ Rams (-6.5) (O/U 50.5)
Now we’re talking, a 50-burger total. Rightfully so, because the Commanders are back from a bye week and ready to get back to business on the field, allowing touchdowns and yardage. LA is fighting tooth and nail for a Wild Card spot, while Washington at 4-9 is looking to gather face and pick up the pieces for next season.
LA is stacked at every position, from running back Kyren Williams to the double-decker combo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, along with Matt Stafford it’s a flashing green light for any Rams of your choice for DFS against one of the worst-ranked defenses in town.
Onto the Commanders, as bad as they are spewing points away, quarterback Sam Howell ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) keeps opposing teams honest by chucking the football. The second-year gunslinger has racked up over 3,400 yards with 18 touchdowns this season.
Honorable Mention: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin
Niners @ Cardinals (+12) (O/U 47.5)
Another banger close to a 50-point total featuring a studly NFC West matchup indoors in the desert. The Niners look to gain full control of the conference and Kyler Murray continues to fight for employment in the NFL, plenty on the line for either side. A great game to stack in a GPP in my opinion, due to some of the value and firepower on both teams.
San Fran is running on all cylinders and appears to be the front-runner for a Super Bowl run. Brock Purdy returns to his home state in Arizona loaded to the teeth with his usual arsenal of weapons (CMC/Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle). Pick your poison with any of the Niner gang, as Arizona has been the whopping post of the NFL since Week One.
The Cardinals have plenty to think of in the offseason, especially at quarterback. Kyler Murray ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has blown the doors open in his return since IR and will continue to show off his stuff. Trey McBride has emerged as his top targeted option, and if Michael Wilson ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is healthy, he’ll provide some salary relief as well as GPP upside.
Honorable Mention: James Connor
Cowboys @ Bills (-2) (U/O 50.5)
Finally, the main event of the afternoon slate, another 50-piece total featuring the red-hot Cowboys and a Bills team clawing their way back into playoff contention. Weather may be a concern though, as it could be a soaker in Buffalo. It’s a must-win for both teams, which may go down to the final ticks because of its importance.
It’s pretty much a no-brainer on who to play for Dallas and Buffalo, but more of a matter of who to pay up/pay down for. Josh Allen, naked, makes sense mainly because of his legs. Roll him out as a late-hammer, or stack him with tight end Dalton Kincaid, the rookie who has manhandled the position from Dawson Knox.
Dak Prescott has been Teflon of late, connecting on 11 touchdowns in his last four games, five of which to CeeDee Lamb. But on the road, outdoors in the elements, it may not be worth the risk to pay up for the Dallas air attack in Buffalo. Consider a Tony Pollard ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) or Jake Fergusen ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) in this matchup, who may be in line for some catches in the short-passing game, while not breaking the bank of your salary cap.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 15. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
