NFL DFS Picks

Welcome back for the Conference Championship NFL DFS slate breakdown! This week, it’s a very condensed, 2-game slate. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD) – Highest floor, highest ceiling on the slate at the Quarterback position. The lower game total and stout defenses on both sides of the ball worry me a bit for the top-tier price and ownership, but he’s the safest play on the board for cash games and offers the world of upside with his legs for GPPs.
  
  Stack Options: “Naked”, Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews
  Bring-Back Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco
  
• Brock Purdy ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Brock Purdy will be my guy this week in GPPs. This is the highest I’ve seen the market be in terms of his passing yards and that’s something I do not take lightly. The AETY Model projects Purdy for over two touchdown passes and a field day with his arm against a pass-funnel Detroit defense. I’m all about it if you want to get a little different and it’s prime leverage off of Christian McCaffrey if you can stomach a fade there.
  
  Stack Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
  Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK / $11,000 FD) – Expensive as hell per usual, but the best play on the board at any position.
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – My motto: on small slates, play the studs. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most talented football players in the NFL and somehow has a price discount from last week. He’s their go-to guy in a run-first offense and the many route runner out of the backfield if Detroit starts chasing points.
  
• Isiah Pacheco ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – A three-down back with significant goal-line touch equity in a somewhat positive matchup on the ground. I fear Baltimore’s pass defense and the Chiefs’ struggles through the air way.
  
• Gus Edwards ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – It looks like Justice Hill is going to draw a significant amount of ownership due to the heavy workload and PPR floor, but I’ll take the lower owned back with significant touchdown equity on a two-game slate.

Honorable Mention: Justice Hill

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200 / $9,200 FD) – Top priced and top projected wide receiver in terms of volume. We all know who Amon-Ra is at this point and his importance to this Detroit offense. If there’s any matchup to exploit against one of the best pass-defenses in the NFL, it’s on the inside with Deommodore Lenoir.
  
• Deebo Samuel ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – Somehow, Deebo Samuel is good to go on Sunday despite the prop markets pricing him like a decoy. No one is going to play Deebo and we’ll need to take some sort of educated risk in GPP lineups on such a small slate. I don’t love it, but it’s probably a move I’m going to make.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – In cash, you’re playing Brandon Aiyuk. Simple as that. He has the highest floor of any receiver not named Amon-Ra St. Brown and has plenty of upside to break this slate. He’s going to draw a ton of ownership and should be able to feast in play action against the Lions’ depleted secondary.
  
• Zay Flowers ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Would much rather play runners against the Chiefs’ but the price on Zay Flowers and his importance to the Ravens’ offense always warrants roster consideration.
  
• Josh Reynolds ($4,000 DK ONLY) & Jameson Williams ($3,700 DK / $5,000 FD) – The theme of the NFL Playoff DFS slates have been “which punt receiver from Detroit is going to hit value?” I’ll take the discount on Jameson Williams as the routes ran data is always there and he is obviously a better talent than Josh Reynolds, but Reynolds and Goff have great red-zone chemistry that I will not discount.

Honorable Mention: Rashee Rice, Rashod Bateman

Tight-Ends

• George Kittle ($5,200 DK / $6,600 FD) – The best tight-end on the slate with a massive ceiling against the Lions’ zone and man coverage schemes. There are too many weapons for the 49ers for the Lions’ to take Kittle out of this game.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($4,300 DK / $5,400 FD) – Mark Andrews will not get a full workload and with the weak receiving core and lack of size outside for Baltimore, Likely is going to be a factor in the passing game regardless of Andrews’ status.

Honorable Mention: Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Lamar Jackson
• Christian McCaffrey
• Justice Hill
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Jameson Williams

Stix Picks GPP Core (DK)

• Brock Purdy
• Deebo Samuel
• George Kittle
• Isiah Likely

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Divisional Round Weekend NFL DFS slate breakdown! This week, it’s a very condensed, 4-game slate with two double-digit spreads on the Vegas board. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD) – What is there to say at this point to further support Josh Allen’s fantasy football value? He’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate which will drive ownership down for the highest-floor/ceiling combo at the position this weekend.
  
  Stack Options: “Naked”, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
  Bring-Back Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco
  
• Patrick Mahomes ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD) – A discounted Mahomes (rightfully so with his fantasy football performance this season) in a do-or-die game against a banged-up/semi-depleted Buffalo defense. I know this total is low for a Chiefs vs. Bills game, but the AETY Model still projects Mahomes to lead this slate in pass attempts (as the Chiefs have the highest Passing Rate Over Expectation) and he’s right there with Purdy/Goff for passing touchdown expectations. With the added benefit of the rushing from Mahomes, he’s by far and away my favorite GPP “pay-down” option while the field goes towards Goff and Purdy.
  
  Stack Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, TBD on a KC punt
  Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
  
• Brock Purdy ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – If you’re not interested in the Mahomes angle for GPPs, Brock Purdy will be my next go-to. The Packers’ defense is 26th in the NFL (dead-last in the remaining playoff teams) in Pass Defense DVOA and the touchdown equity through the air leads the slate this week. I’m all about it if you want to get different and it’s prime leverage off of Christian McCaffrey if you can stomach a fade there.
  
  Stack Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
  Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir
  
• Jared Goff ($6,300 DK / $7,600 FD) – Likely the highest owned quarterback on the slate (maybe Lamar beats him there) but for good reason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are certainly more of a pass-funnel than they are a team to attack on the ground and Jared Goff leads this slate in projected passing yards. He or Allen would be my “safe” go-to for cash game builds but you can always go this way in GPP contests and get different elsewhere.
  
  Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds
  Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DK / $10,800 FD) – Expensive as hell, but he almost broke the AETY Model’s all-time projection output, lol. He’s been hampered with a calf injury to end the 2023 regular season if you’re looking for any spec of dust for fade consideration.
  
  If you’re crazy, you could roster a 1-2% owned, Elijah Mitchell ($5,200 DK / $5,000 FD).
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD) – On small slates, play the studs. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most talented football players in the NFL and has a poor-man’s McCaffrey’s workload through the air when facing a heavy blitz rate (Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in the NFL’s blitz rate). When the Lions need big plays, Gibbs will be on the field.
  
  David Montgomery on the other hand is a GPP dart behind a great offensive line, incredibly high team total, and no ownership. We’ll need a lot of help in the red-zone to have a solid day but we should see a little uptick in passing action against the blitz.
  
• Isiah Pacheco ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – A three-down back with significant goal-line touch equity. I don’t love the spot for him, but the usage will be there in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
  
• James Cook ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Great price and a great matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that allows a heavy workload to opposing pass-catching running backs. We’ll see some added usage to Cook through the air against the Chiefs’ heavy man-coverage rates. We always want to prioritize running backs who touch the ball 15+ times a game.
  
• Dalvin Cook ($4,000 DK / $4,500 FD) – Pure dart throw that the usage may actually be there for Dalvin Cook based on the ole Twitter articles and Coach speak I could find. I hate it, but if you’re not into Elijah Mitchell as a punt, Dalvin should get 4-8 touches and maybe more if this game for some reason gets out of hand. It’s absolutely a prayer salary relief play.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200 / $9,200 FD) – Top priced and top projected wide receiver against a pass-funnel defense. We all know who Amon-Ra is at this point and his importance to this Detroit offense.
  
• Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – Great matchups on the outside against the Detroit pass-funnel defense and a 33% expected target share in the red-zone. I would assume the field will just take the discount on Chris Godwin who has slowly been moving more outside in their offense and in my opinion, hurts the high-floor we’re used to with Godwin. Mike Evans should have a field day if this becomes a shootout.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – Aiyuk surprisingly grades out as a damn-near must-play inside the AETY Model. Having said that, I’ll stick to GPP’s only. Deebo would be fantastic as well, but it’s tough to get there (on DraftKings) with that salary. The Packers’ defense will blitz a lot and play a lot of Cover-3 zone defense. Both situations give Aiyuk an uptick in expected production against an awful Packers’ secondary.
  
• Rashee Rice ($6,800 DK / $7,800 FD) – The top-pass catcher for Patrick Mahomes and a depleted Buffalo Bills secondary. Rice is a go for all formats.
  
• Zay Flowers ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Great price for a WR1 against a pass-funnel defense that has given up multiple 100+ yard receiving games to opposing top-wideouts. You’re going to want to get some part of this Baltimore offense and their 26.5 implied team total and Zay has the highest upside of them all.
  
• Christian Watson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another prayer type of play but the AETY Model expects a significant boost up in routes ran this week and a friendly target share against the 49ers’ Cover-1 and Cover-4 defense.
  
• Jameson Williams ($3,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – Way too cheap and way too talented for the price-tag and sub-par secondary for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I know he let everyone down last week and people want to flock to Josh Reynolds, but Jameson Williams is one of the biggest expected benefactors against the Bucs’ heavy blitz rate and soft zone coverages.

Honorable Mention: Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Khalil Shakir, John Metchie, Mecole Hardman

Tight-Ends

• Sam LaPorta ($5,900 DK / $6,600 FD) – Don’t love the knee injury but LaPorta was still extremely active in terms of routes ran. The Bucs play a ton of Cover-3 zone leading to a lot of mismatches with talented route-running tight-ends. Hell, Juwan Johnson broke a slate against the Bucs!
  
• George Kittle ($5,200 DK / $6,400 FD) – Just like last week’s Ferguson lock, but to a lesser extent, I love Kittle as a contrarian option on the slate for a flex or tight-end. The Packers’ grade 26th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Unlike Ferguson, we may have to worry about volume in PPR formats.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD) – Too cheap with Mark Andrews out and a staple for cash-game lineups.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jared Goff
• Christian McCaffrey
• Josh Reynolds
• Isaiah Likely
• Rashee Rice

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Super Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS slate breakdown! This week, it’s a condensed, 6-game slate with a some weather concerns (make sure you keep an eye on that). As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays.

My Slate Thoughts: Overall, I am mostly interested in the Sunday ONLY slate. I love the condensed player pool where we really only need to get different with one or two players. but this article will cover the full Saturday-Monday slate. For the most part, I’m avoiding the extremely cold and windy games of Miami @ Kansas City and Pittsburgh @ Buffalo.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Dak Prescott ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – Prescott is on an absolute heater this year and I don’t see that stopping this weekend at home against the Packers (26th in pass defense DVOA). The stack-ability is rather simple and the AETY Model projects Dak Prescott to lead the slate in passing yards and passing touchdowns. The floor is second to maybe only a healthy Jalen Hurts. The only concern here is whether or not you think the Packers can hang in this game and keep Dak’s foot on the gas pedal. He’ll likely lead this slate in QB ownership.
  
  Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, Tony Pollard
  Bring-Back Options: Jayden Reed, Aaron Jones, Tucker Kraft
  
• Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – If you want to get a little different, Matthew Stafford is the top QB value on the AETY Model and gets an up-tempo matchup against a pass-funnel Detroit defense. The player props for Stafford are right there with Dak Prescott and we have a significantly lower chance of a blowout gamescript in Detroit than what we may have in Dallas. The Rams’ receiving core should be at full health and ready to exploit matchups through the air against a banged up Detroit secondary.
  
  *On the other side, if Jared Goff is going to be 10-15% owned on three-game slate against a pass-funnel defense, I’m interested.
  
  Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tyler Higbee, Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson
  Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams
  
• Joe Flacco ($6,100 DK / $7,800 FD) – Too expensive for me on FanDuel, but a nice value price-tag for the recently revived gun-slinger. It appears since Flacco has taken over that the Browns want to move the ball through the air and they’ve been extremely successful doing so. Like the Detroit Lions, the Houston Texans are a pass-funnel defense but they will be more prepared for this matchup after Flacco went for 368 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans just three weeks ago.
  
  Stack Options: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore
  Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Kyren Williams ($7,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The volume is second-to-none and he literally produces every single week… but the matchup is a bit of a headache as the Lions are the top ranked run defense in terms of DVOA. The ownership will be up there and so is the price, so I’ll sign off on the play if you want to use him in cash games, but I’ll likely be out in GPP lineups despite my love for this Los Angeles run-blocking scheme.
  
• Rachaad White ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – I’m likely avoiding the variance of the Monday Night game due to the AETY Model pushing me towards players on the Sunday slate, but if you’re playing the full-slate, Rachaad White is a great contrarian option at the running back position. The Eagles can bleed production through the air to opposing running backs and have given up over 145 rushing yards per game over their last three games!
  
• De’Von Achane ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – With this weather and a banged up Jaylen Waddle, the Miami Dolphins have to get incredibly creative to score points on the ground. Like my write-up below on Jahmyr Gibbs, play the most talented players on small slates. The Dolphins’ offense is going to have to run through De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill and I have more faith with Achane as Andy Reid will likely not let Tyreek beat them.
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – On small slates, play the studs. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most talented football players in the NFL and will have a lot of added work through the air (as will ARSB, Jameson Williams, and Josh Reynolds) as Sam LaPorta is out with a knee injury. When the Lions need big plays, Gibbs will be on the field.
  
• Aaron Jones ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – No AJ Dillon… Just play Aaron Jones for the volume and passing-game work if you need an easy decision. I do think you can get different in GPPs and go for someone with more touchdown equity (Isiah Pachecho at $6,400 DK), but the volume alone has me very interested in Aaron Jones.
  
• Tony Pollard ($6,100 DK / $7,800 FD) – Awful pricing by DraftKings on Tony Pollard. He leads the AETY Model in touchdown equity this weekend as a whole and has a great matchup as a touchdown-favorite at home against the Packers’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). We’re due for a Tony Pollard statement game after he disappointed the fantasy community in 2023.

Honorable Mention: James Cook, Isiah Pachecho, Jerome Ford

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• CeeDee Lamb ($9,000 DK / $10,000 FD) – Best play on the board at the wide-receiver position.
  
• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 / $9,000 FD) – Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to need to have a massive game for the Lions to fill a big void if Sam LaPorta is hindered by the knee injury. He’ll get the added benefit of matching up with the slower Quentin Lake and some Cobie Durant on the inside of the Rams’ secondary. On DraftKings specifically, volume is key and these two top-tier wideouts offer us just that.
  
• Cooper Kupp ($7,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Quite the discount for Cooper Kupp these days… If you want to get different, fade one of the two above and play Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. I know there are some concerns with his upside and the crowded target-share with Puka Nacua ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) lighting the world on fire as well, but he’s still a fantasy asset with no ownership. I’m fine with either one of them in this spot.
  
• Amari Cooper ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – Don’t expect another season-leading fantasy performance from Amari Cooper, but he’s still a volume-hog WR1 in a pass-happy offense against a pass-funnel defense. The price is great and the matchup is even better.
  
• Jayden Reed ($5,700 DK Only) – The Dallas Cowboys’ defense is extremely stout and quite healthy, but if this game goes as planned, the Packers will be playing from behind and using their most talented pass-catcher, Jayden Reed on the inside against nickel corner, Jourdan Lewis.
  
• Demarcus Robinson ($3,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – Ridiculous pricing on FanDuel, but an extreme value on DraftKings. Both Sportsbooks and the AETY Model have Demarcus Robinson’s receiving prop in the mid-40s which is just too much value for someone who has an expected 90% snap-count in what should be a shootout atmosphere in Detroit. With the expected ownership, he’s best left for cash games.
  
• Jameson Williams ($3,500 DK / $5,200 FD) – Way too cheap and way too talented for the price-tag and sub-par secondary for the Los Angeles Rams. With Kalif Raymond out, Jameson Williams should be schemed all over the field to attack the Rams soft zone coverage.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Rashee Rice, Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield

Tight-Ends

• David Njoku ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – I don’t think I can get behind the price on FanDuel, but since Joe Flacco has entered town, David Njoku is putting up WR1 numbers.
  
• Dallas Goedert ($4,800 DK / $6,100 FD) – Keep an eye on the status of AJ Brown (I highly doubt he plays) but regardless, Dallas Goedert gets the nut matchup against the Bucs’ secondary who has been bleeding slate-breaking games to opposing tight-ends over the past month.
  
• Jake Ferguson ($4,600 DK / $6,200 FD) – I personally think Ferguson is one of the best contrarian options on the slate for a flex or tight-end. The Packers’ grade 26th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and we know how big of a red-zone threat Ferguson is in addition to his high floor in PPR formats. It would not surprise me if Ferguson is the TE1 on this slate.
  
• Tyler Higbee ($3,400 DK / $5,200 FD) – Punt value type of play for our Stafford stacks against a Lions’ defense that loves to play Cover-2 (where Higbee has had incredible success with Stafford).

Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, Luke Musgrave

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Matthew Stafford
• CeeDee Lamb
• Amon-Ra. St. Brown
• Aaron Jones
• Jameson Williams

NFL DFS GPP Core (Sunday)

• Jared Goff
• Tony Pollard
• CeeDee Lamb
• Jameson Williams

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.