Week 2 is coming up fast for the NFL and we are back with the complete NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 2! There are going to be some pretty chalky spots but there’s at least one that fully deserves it. Let’s talk about that and potential pivots through every game!
QB – It was a very uninspiring start for Josh Allen and the vaunted Buffalo offense, but it looked like they weren’t clicking that well with almost no action in the preseason. It didn’t hurt that the Steelers’ defense really played well either. Looking at a metric our man Jared brings every week in his article, Allen will likely be just fine –
Allen was one of the biggest “losers” in terms of unrealized air yards in Week 1. Buffalo ran 11 personnel around 90% in Week 1, which was up almost 20% from last season. That made sense to try and spread the field against the Steelers’ secondary. If Allen can put up 18 DK points in a pretty poor game, that tells you the ceiling is still very much the same as 2020. Miami was only 13th in DVOA against the pass in Week 1 and that was a rookie quarterback with some questionable weapons. Allen is a dynamite GPP play this week because I doubt many go that route and his ceiling simply hasn’t changed. My (admittedly small) concerns about his rushing attempts in the RZ were not realized since Allen had four last week and had another 44 yards on the ground total.
RB – It was a pretty large surprise to see Zack Moss inactive in Week 1 but it did open the door for Devin Singletary to rack up 11 rush attempts and three receptions. Miami got hammered on the ground in their first game, giving up 119 yards rushing, and they also got tagged for 75 yards through the air on nine receptions. Now, Singletary is not to be confused with James White of New England but it was fascinating to see the Dolphins get blasted on the ground against a rookie quarterback. You would have thought they would totally load the box but it flat out didn’t matter. Now, the Bills don’t run the same style of offense (or even close to it) so it’s not apples to apples. Singletary could be an option for builds where you prioritize WR or TE with your salary. We don’t get backs that play 64 snaps at this salary very often.
WR – All three of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley played over 90% of the snaps, and Diggs and Beasley ate up significant targets. Diggs was targeted on 32.6% of the routes he ran and finished fourth in air yards on the week. He’s similar to Allen in that if the down week is 9/69, we’re in business. The matchup with corners like Xavien Howard and Byron Jones isn’t always ideal but it didn’t matter last season. Diggs dropped one game over 32 DK against this secondary and he did kick into the slot almost 20% in Week 1. There’s no reason to not view him and Allen as elite plays this week.
Corner Nik Needham played 35 snaps last week and might well be right back in the slot role for Miami. That wouldn’t scare me off Beasley and he is very cheap for DK since it’s full PPR. Needham played strong last year but he was further down on the depth chart to start this game. I don’t think Beasley is going to see 13 targets per game but his role is cemented in a very good offense and he’s a very solid cash play at the salary for DK. Manny Sanders suffered from the same issue that plagued Josh Allen (no shocker) because Sanders had 102 unrealized air yards. That was fifth among receivers coming out of the week. That’s another player that is just way too cheap even though the matchup is very difficult.
TE – Dawson Knox is one of those tight ends that if you fall on as the last man in, you can hope he scores but he might have a slightly more stable floor. The target share wasn’t anything great at just 8.2% and he only ran 17 routes, but at least 25% of his snaps came from the slot. We always love to see that from our tight ends and he played 55% of the snaps. For a team that has a lot of talent at receiver, Knox isn’t the worst option at this salary.
D/ST – I think Miami is still good for a runner or two but Buffalo wasn’t anything to write home about in Week 1. The pressure rate was there around 28% but I’m not sure this is the spot to rack up some sacks. Miami gave up one of the lowest pressure rates of any team in Week 1 and I think we can try for other options.
Cash Plays – Beasley, Singletary
GPP Plays – Allen, Diggs, D/ST
Out – Will Fuller, WR
QB – It doesn’t look like much, but Tua Tagovailoa was in a tough spot last week against Bill Belichick in New England. This week is going to be different since the offense will be Fuller (insert dad joke meme, we’ll get to that in a second) and Buffalo’s defense isn’t quite as good as New England. The Pats only ran a blitz about 17% of the time, daring Tua to beat their coverage. Buffalo ran about 28% so he should see more blitzes this week. My fear with Tua even at the low salary is he did not push the ball downfield with only 98 intended air yards. That’s…not great but I’m not ready to throw him under the bus totally yet. He’s about to get one of the league’s premier deep threats to line up and it’s a good time to take chance on that stack for what could be the lowest price of the season.
RB – It seems a lock that Myles Gaskin is not going to be the exact same workhorse he was last year with just 54% of the snaps, but he did have 14 touches and that’s not horrible. The salary is just kind of “meh” on DK at $5,900 as he really doesn’t have a ton of upside past maybe about 20 DK. Perhaps the largest point of concern is he only got nine carries and that is not a whole lot to bank on. Buffalo gave up the third-fewest yards on the ground in Week 1 and I don’t have any strong feelings on Gaskin being a need in cash or GPP this week.
WR – There might not be a higher ceiling receiver at $4,800 than Will Fuller. Perhaps the lack of time in actual game action hurts the chemistry between Fuller and Tua since Fuller was suspended from last year. I’m pretty sure I don’t care because Fuller is wildly talented and shouldn’t be under $5,000 even in this scenario. Fuller was 10th in yards per reception last year at 16.6 and he’s wildly explosive. He has a strong speed advantage over both Tre White and Levi Wallace and if he gets on Wallace and his 4.6 40-yard dash, Fuller can scorch him. DeVante Parker led in targets last week but the Dolphins only had two receivers on the field a lot of the time. I would rather play Jaylen Waddle as I believe Fuller will be a deep threat and Waddle will be closer to the line and in the intermediate game to accentuate his YAC ability. The Fuller/Waddle combo is crazy cheap even if the jury is still sort of out on Tua.
Update – Well, Fuller is out due to a personal matter and we hope that everything is alright off the field, which is most important. Waddle and Parker take a small step up as far as safety go, but they don’t turn into needed players.
TE – It’s very difficult to feel comfortable at all with Mike Gesicki this week. He only ran 14 routes on the day, drew two targets, and now Fuller is back in the offense. If there were encouraging metrics, I’d be on board for a rebound. He only played 38.5% of the snaps total and that was with Adam Shaheen out with Covid. It saddens me greatly that Gesicki is a part-time player but we have to recognize what the Miami staff is doing with him.
D/ST – The Dolphins are cheap enough to consider a bit because even though I don’t think they keep Buffalo from scoring some points, there is sack and turnover equity. Allen was sacked three times and pressured and the third-highest rate in Week 1, and has been know to fumble the ball on running plays.
Cash Plays – Gaskin, Fuller
GPP Plays – Waddle, Tua, D/ST
QB – Look at this man Tyrod Taylor getting it done for fantasy! The Texans are not going to be good this year but he does still have a weapon or two at his disposal and if he keeps tacking on 40 yards rushing, he could be interesting. Now, I’ll be the first to tell you that I’m not playing him because I’d play Tua at the same price. He did finish seventh in intended air yards on the first week, which was a surprise as well. It’s almost impossible to decipher the matchup since Cleveland played Patrick Mahomes. That will wreck the curve early in the season and I doubt Cleveland finishes 29th in DVOA against the pass. He’s almost sure to be in a negative game script but I’m not buying into Tyrod just yet.
RB – We normally say that volume is one of the only factors that matter for running backs and Mark Ingram had that in spades on Sunday with 28 carries. There’s a couple of caveats that leave me fairly uninterested. One, the Browns are not the train wreck the Jaguars are so projecting the Texans to lead this game like they did last week would be foolish. Secondly, the Browns defense is much more stout than the Jaguars unit and this sure looks like it would be a trap. Maybe Ingram gets the bulk of the carries, but in a game script that gets flipped, he could be uninvolved. David Johnson got the most targets of the running back corps at four but I’m not interested in paying $5,200 just for that facet of the game. No running back played more than Ingram’s 46% of the snaps.
WR – They didn’t need to throw a lot but seeing no receiver for the Texan other than Brandin Cooks see more than five targets is not great. We all wanted Nico Collins to take off but Danny Amendola swooped in and stole five targets along with a touchdown. He’s not very much over the minimum and he only played 22% of the snaps so if his snaps increase, he and Cooks could be the 1-2 in this offense, even though that seems kind of crazy. Cooks continues to be one of the most underrated receivers in the game, producing 132 yards on just five receptions. Cooks ate up a 44% air yard share which was 10th and the 132 yards were the fourth-most of the week. Denzel Ward doesn’t really shadow and I’m not saying Cooks = Tyreek Hill, but Hill just ran wild on this secondary. Cooks is the best play from the corps by a lot.
TE – I’m not particularly looking to chase the Pharaoh Brown game from last week. First, be cautious with Cleveland’s ranking against tight ends. Of course, it looks bad after defending Travis Kelce. Second, he only ran 19 routes altogether and that likely goes up this week as a heavy underdog, but his metrics as far as snaps and routes look almost the same as Jordan Akins. Brown was just the player that got targeted. It seems like it could be a coin flip and an easy way to tilt. If we play a cheaper tight end, I want one that’s not in a timeshare with another cheap tight end.
D/ST – The doubt the Browns gift them three turnovers again and I will pass easily.
Cash Plays – Cooks
GPP Plays – Taylor
QB – Last week was about exactly what to expect from Baker Mayfield. He was super efficient on 21-28 passing for 321 yards but didn’t throw a touchdown and then threw a crushing interception to seal the game. Mayfield wasn’t really throwing the ball downfield, barely cracking the top 20 in air yards in Week 1 and it would be nice to see him get Odell Beckham back sooner than later. Cleveland led last week until the end, and he threw under 30 passes. Considering they are one of the heaviest favorites on the slate this week, we shouldn’t expect a lot more volume and you’d need 2-3 touchdowns to make it all work.
RB – If you told me that the Browns would jump out to a lead against the Chiefs last week, I would tell you that Nick Chubb would see more than 52% of the snaps and 15 carries, but here we are. Now the positives are that those 15 carries were 71% of the running back carries and he had six RZ attempts to just three for Kareem Hunt. Houston was absolutely gouged on the ground last year by running backs as they gave up the most rushing yards by almost 300 yards and they gave up 21 touchdowns. I almost don’t care what the DVOA is for this season or what their results were from last week. Even at just 15 carries, Chubb has 100+ rushing yards and multi-touchdown upside. Chubb actually saw two targets as well which isn’t much but he only saw 16 receptions last year through 12 games. We’ll take anything he gives us in the passing game and this spot is about as great a play as a back could be without a lot of receiving work. He should not be under $8,000 at home as a 12.5 favorite.
WR – We know early this week that Odell Beckham will not play and we can take last week at face value for the Browns. What was super interesting is Jarvis Landry was matched in targets by rookie Anthony Schwartz with five each. Schwartz had an aDOT of 25.2 yards last week and an air yards share of 46.2%. He was 11th in unrealized air yards and ninth in air yards share in the first week. He put up a 3/69 line and certainly appears to have a very dangerous role in the passing game right now. $3,300 is super cheap for a deep threat like this. Landry played about 31% of his snaps in the slot and his day was boosted with 13 rushing yards and a touchdown. Projecting the game script means that I would rather take the chance at Schwartz and play Cooks instead of Landry in this game. Donovan Peoples-Jones picked up some sleeper steam but only saw one target all game.
TE – Cleveland played a lot of two-tight end sets with Austin Hooper and David Njoku on the field at least 59% of the time. Njoku saw five targets compared to Hooper’s three and it’s even scarier to pick between them because they both ran under 15 routes. I’m not super interested in trying to pick between them but I’d give a slight lean toward Njoku since his aDOT was over 20 yards and Hooper was under six.
D/ST – The Browns are one of the more affordable options that is facing a team that isn’t projected to score much. They only got to Mahomes for two sacks last week but Mahomes is a much different story. The pressure rate was 24.4% and Taylor was seventh in pressure rate last week. He was only sacked once but Myles Garrett could get home twice himself.
Cash Plays – Chubb, D/ST
GPP Plays – Schwartz, Landry, Hunt
QB – Cincinnati didn’t ask Joe Burrow to do a whole lot in his first game back from major knee surgery and that’s not a surprise. He only threw the ball 27 times but you don’t spend the capital they have on receivers to throw it under 30 times per game. The Chicago secondary was super vulnerable in Week 1 and even though the Rams offense is more polished, the secondary is not good at all and they should struggle to cover the Bengals options. Burrow came through this game looking comfortable and healthy, and the longer the season goes the more open this passing game should become. I doubt he’s under $6,000 for very much longer.
RB – As much as I love Chubb this week, Joe Mixon is only $800 cheaper and deserves a ton of attention. He was FED the rock with 29 carries and four receptions in the overtime win and racked up 150 scrimmage yards with a score. He was quite simply a monster, with 15.4% of the target share and he got 85.3% of the running back carries share. Mixon was credited with breaking eight tackles and that was the most on the week. It’s interesting because we’ve seen the Bengals play from behind so much over the past couple of years that we may not have realized just how involved Mixon could be. You can’t bank on 33 touches a week but he is the unquestioned RB1 in this offense and the Bears defense didn’t look special against the run on Sunday night.
WR – Welp, I missed out on Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1. I fell for the struggles through the preseason and missed the boat. He looked every bit the receiver we expected with a snap rate of 91%, a 26.9% target share, a 50.2% air yards share, and he finished 11th in yards per route. We saw the Bears’ secondary look poor and if Jaylon Johnson is the only above average player back there, it’s not going to be enough. Johnson played well and was the only member of the secondary that didn’t allow a 100% completion rate on Sunday. Chase likely sees some of him but it won’t be every play and I’m very bullish that he was the WR1 in basically all metrics immediately.
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd both played the exact same amount of snaps and Higgins had one more target, so they were still close. Higgins held the edge where it mattered with two RZ targets and one EZ target with an aDOT of 8.2. Kindle Vildor is the other outside corner right now and he played all of 13% of the snaps last year, so this isn’t anyone to fear. I have them ranked Chase, Higgins, and Boyd based on what we saw in Week 1.
TE – With three receivers and Mixon to feed in this offense, C.J. Uzomah is not going to pay off very often. He played plenty of snaps at 76.1% but only ran 19 routes and saw just two targets. I don’t expect that to change very often this year.
D/ST – I don’t hate the Bengals’ defense after getting a look at the Bears’ offense. They were the only team that didn’t attempt a pass over 15 yards downfield and they ran a blitz over 37% of the time, seventh-most. The Bears only surrendered a 14% pressure rate but that’s not a surprise when you’re not throwing the ball downfield.
Cash Plays – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Mixon
GPP Plays – Boyd, D/ST
QB – You can try and sell the revenge narrative all you want, but I’ll have nothing to do with Andy Dalton. Don’t get me wrong, the matchup certainly gets a lot easier for Dalton this week but he didn’t look up to the task on Sunday. It doesn’t help that Justin Fields rotates in and out of the game and could potentially steal some RZ touches/attempts. Dalton barely got over a 5.0 yards per attempt and it looked like there was not a sniff of upside to be had. We have much better plays.
RB – I’m not sure David Montgomery could have done much more in Week 1. He was constantly creating yards and finding holes to hit, looking every bit as good as he did towards the end of last season. He got 16 carries to just six for Damien Williams which was very encouraging but there is a knock on Monty and that was he only saw one target. Williams sucked up the passing game work with five targets and they both had two RZ carries each. I mean, Williams needed six carries for 12 yards while Monty rolled up 108 yards on his 16 carries. The bottom line here is Monty is very cheap but it was interesting to note that the Bengals held Dalvin Cook to under 70 yards rushing. Without the targets, Monty is a far less stable bet on an offense that doesn’t look strong with Dalton at the helm.
WR – If I’m Allen Robinson and I don’t get a target beyond 10 yards again this week, I might start a full revolt on the sideline. Look, I get that Aaron Donald and the Rams wreck a game plan but come on. This is Allen. Robinson. You can’t have him never run past 10 yards or the defense can defend anyone. Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple look like they’re going to start again with Trae Waynes doubtful and those corners can’t hang with the talent of Robinson. Can we just get this man a real quarterback for once?
Darnell Mooney played every snap and when you’re not throwing it downfield, you likely can’t accentuate his strengths all that well. He was targeted seven times and was the only receiver to get a RZ target. The aDOT of 6.1 was actually on the higher end for the receivers so if Chicago expands their vision this week, he’s still in play for GPP and pretty cheap.
TE – We’ve come to a cheap option that I do like to some extent in Cole Kmet because he played the eighth-most slot snaps, drew seven targets, and had a RZ target. As long as Dalton is the starter, he doesn’t seem interested at all to try and push the ball down the field so the ceiling isn’t super high. However, he tied for the second-most targets behind A-Rob and a lower aDOT of 4.4 yards helps secure receptions.
D/ST – Their front is still very good but until they fix the secondary, it’s hard to get too excited. They also only got an 11.1% pressure rate but it does appear that the Bengals still have offensive line issues. They allowed a 34.4% pressure rate and five sacks, which was the second-most of the week. They are cheap enough to consider but I do have concerns about the Bengals receivers in that secondary.
Cash Plays – Monty, Kmet
GPP Plays – Robinson, Mooney, D/ST
Questionable – Jonnu Smith, TE
QB – I didn’t really expect Mac Jones to throw the ball 39 times in his first game, but he certainly didn’t play poorly. The completion rate was over 74%, the yards per attempt was over 7.0, and he didn’t throw a pick. That’s not a bad day at the office against a defense that Miami can throw out there, and coach Brian Flores certainly tried his best to get after Jones. Only the Bucs blitzed at a higher rate than the Dolphins 52.5% but Jones showed well. The blitz rate likely doesn’t let up since the Jets brought one 38.9%, fifth-most in Week 1. With that secondary, it only takes a couple of plays to get burned and I think we can still consider Jones as a bottom-barrel discount option, even if I like others better this week. Jones also had a pressured completion rate of 78.6%, which was very impressive.
RB – You have to be a bit sketchy on using Damien Harris this week after a fumble that helped seal a loss last week. Coach Bill Belichick has not hesitated to reduce workloads for running backs who fumble but it will be interesting because the options are a little barren behind Harris. You have James White, who is not going to carry the ball 15+ as he’s utilized in the passing game (his seven targets were second on the team in Week 1). Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled and almost got Mac Jones killed when he got steamrolled in pass protection. The Jets are looking like they could be a vulnerable spot but I’m not sure if we can trust the roles heading into this game. White is easily the safest but the ceiling is likely not high even on DK.
WR – Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers are the only two receivers worth playing since we have two tight ends and a running back specialist all involved in the passing game. Agholor got the score but Meyers played almost every snap and was targeted nine times to seven for Agholor. Maybe that’s not a surprise because Meyers played 64% of his snaps from the slot and that is slightly easier for a rookie quarterback to find instead of testing the boundary. There is certainly no corner in this secondary that I worry about as the Miami guys were a way worse matchup. They both got a RZ target and Meyers had a lower aDOT. On DK, I’m going to side with him for the extra $300 and Meyers might finally score his first career touchdown.
TE – It looks like we’ll see a lot of two tight ends from the Patriots and that shouldn’t be a surprise. They spent big in free agency and both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry both played over 70% of the snaps. Smith saw five targets to three for Henry and Smith caught all of his for over 40 yards. He also saw one RZ target to zero for Henry so we have our answer of who is a priority if playing one of them. I think he’s a little too expensive compared to the rest of the position but he would be my pick from the Pats.
Update – Smith potentially sitting would help Henry, but he still wouldn’t move into my top eight or so tight ends I’d want to play.
D/ST – If they fit salary-wise, the Patriots are my favorite defense of the week. The Jets allowed six sacks last week which was tied for the most and they also allowed a massive pressure rate of over 46%. The offensive line for the Jets only got worse and I’m sure Belichick is going to be able to come up with ways to get to Wilson, which creates turnovers. They certainly aren’t the cheapest option but on paper, the upside is unrivaled.
Cash Plays – Jones, Meyers, White, D/ST
GPP Plays – Agholor, Smith
QB – Zach Wilson showed some traits to be extremely excited about if you’re a Jets fan (I heard Brian all day Tuesday) and I do think he’s going to be fantasy-valuable in multiple weeks. This is absolutely not one of those weeks. Wilson and the Jets will be without Mekhi Bechton, their left tackle and best offensive lineman. New England is already licking their chops and I can see their blitz rate pick up in a hurry. I can also see a lot of different looks and coverages and this is a spot that just smells of multiple turnovers. We will have to wait a little while longer to play Wilson.
RB – Holy smokes this backfield was gross in Week 1. Veteran Tevin Coleman led the way with nine rushes while Ty Johnson had four carries and one reception. While Johnson was targeted two other times in the passing game, that’s not enough meat on the bone for an offense that struggled badly in Carolina. Johnson also saw 53.8% of the snaps to just 26.2% for Coleman so I think there is some potential for Johnson at some point this season for a cheap running back play. It’s not this week against a nasty New England front with a rookie quarterback facing Bill Belichick.
WR – We should expect Jamison Crowder to be back for this game and that really adds some instability to everything, even more so with Wilson facing Belichick. Corey Davis posted a monster game but we haven’t seen him and Crowder together, so it’s hard to predict the target share between the two. I would think that Crowder sees the majority of the seven targets that went to Braxton Berrios and Elijah Moore falls down the pecking order just a bit. Moore didn’t do a thing but he had a couple of chances with 93 air yards on four targets. The bottom line is the QB has to get the ball to the receivers and I’m not buying that this week, even though the Pats are still missing corner Stephon Gilmore.
TE – We thought Tyler Kroft might be the only game in town at the position but Ryan Griffin played about 48% of the snaps as well, drawing six targets to five for Kroft. I’m not heading to either player in this spot since I don’t rust Wilson at the helm against New England. We can keep an eye on the usage and potentially play them another day.
D/ST – If we’re punting defense, the Jets may well be the solution. Look, they aren’t the best unit on the planet but got a 22.2% pressure rate and ran a blitz almost 39% of the time. Jones proved last week he can handle blitzes but this is still a rookie quarterback in his first road start with questionable skill players. Even if we get six points, I’d be pretty happy.
Cash Plays – D/ST
GPP Plays – Davis
QB – I mentioned Mac Jones was sort of in play, but if you’re down this low I prefer Teddy Bridgewater. It’s an awful blow to this offense overall to lose Jerry Jeudy for an extended period, but that won’t derail the Broncos’ offense in this game. We saw Jacksonville get carved up by Houston and Denver is more talented even without Jeudy and we saw vintage Teddy Two Gloves in Week 1. He completed almost 78% of his passes for over 260 yards and threw two touchdowns with no interceptions. That’s not going to break a slate but for cash games at $5,400, you can do far worse and load up at the skill positions. Jacksonville left Week 1 19th in DVOA against the pass and gave up the 12th-most passing yards so Bridgewater has a pretty clear path to 20 DK once again.
RB – Melvin Gordon got the headlines with a 70-yard romp but I’m not convinced the disparity in salary is warranted between him and Javonte Williams. I’m not here to tell you MG3 is washed but he split the backfield evenly with the rookie on Sunday. It was an even split right down the middle at 505 each and Williams had more carries at 14-11 while MG3 had the edge in targets 3-1. If you give a back like Williams 15 touches against Jacksonville at $4,400, it’s not exactly hard to see where he can hit value. The Jaguars allowed 120 yards on the ground to running backs last week which was the fifth-most and that absolutely jives with what we’ve seen from them last season. Both backs are in play but the salary difference is very intriguing. We want to be on the breakout game for Williams, not one week behind.
WR – Man it’s a bummer that Jerry Jeudy got hurt so quickly. He and Teddy showed immediate chemistry but we move forward. Courtland Sutton played the most snaps at 80% but wasn’t targeted a whole lot with just three. K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick saw four apiece and they all bring strengths from Week 1. Hamler and Sutton played the deep role, both with aDOT’s of at least 17 yards while Patrick saw two RZ looks out of his four targets. For me, I’d rather take the RZ looks since Bridgewater isn’t the most ideal quarterback for the deep pass. None of them played much in the slot and the Jacksonville corners can’t stop a college team. Given the roles that we saw and the salary, I’d have them as Patrick, Hamler, then Sutton. However, I think the best play from the passing game is up next.
TE – One of the premier plays at tight end this week is Noah Fant. With Jeudy out, he is the best candidate to lead the team in targets since he already did that last week. with eight. He drew the third-most targets in Week 1 with the fifth-highest target share and ran the seventh-most routes. Fant also co-led the team in RZ targets at two and Jacksonville doesn’t have a defense that can hang with him. If you’re not spending up, Fant makes so much sense with more of the passing game open to take over.
D/ST – No offense to corner Ronald Darby and I hope he heals up soon but letting Patrick Surtain into the starting lineup isn’t a bad thing. Denver passed on quarterbacks to sit Surtain on the bench for all but 16 plays last week and perhaps the largest surprise was they got almost no pressure on Daniel Jones. They only blitzed 13.6% and played a lot of coverage and the Jags turned it over a bunch against a much less talented defense. If the patriots would be chalky, Denver could be a strong pivot.
Cash Plays – Bridgewater, Fant, Patrick, D/ST
GPP Plays – Williams, Hamler, Sutton, MG3
QB – Let’s take a live look at Trevor Lawrence in Week 1.
He ate up all the garbage time production to wind up being the QB11 in DK scoring. The Denver defense is wildly more talented than Houston and while he may be replicating the game script, I’m not wild about solely chasing garbage time when so many quarterbacks can be played. The positives for Lawerence is he was not shy about chucking the ball downfield with the fourth-most air yards on the week. If he eliminates his mistakes, not really looking at him may look dumb but I expect the Broncos secondary to force at least one turnover and the pass rush is going to be tough to deal with.
RB – I want to be clear this is not a victory lap because even I was stunned at the running back usage last week, but this was (somewhat) my fear playing James Robinson. He only played 63% of the snaps and had five carries. That’s it, five. He did tack on six targets as the Jaguars were in comeback mode for most of the game and a 12% target share is nothing to sneer at….when there are carries to go along with it. Carlos Hyde had two targets and nine carries, which suggests a strong split backfield. Considering J-Rob is still sitting over $6,000 on DK, we can safely skip right over him. Urban Meyer is already sending strong signals that he may be overwhelmed in this job. I want nothing to do with this backfield right now.
WR – We talked about D.J. Chark having so many unrealized air yards in 2020 and it was the exact same story in Week 1. He went for 3/86/1 which was a strong return on the salary and would be again this week. Chark was second in unrealized air yards at 121 and he saw a monster 12 targets, he was the only player to hit double-digits. The corners for Denver are strong, as is their safety play but they’re not invincible either. Chark is a GPP special that legit has 30 DK point upside if he continues to see the volume and high-value targets he saw in Week 1.
Laviska Shenault plays the slot and the aDOT was 3.1, meaning he’s going to see a lot of manufactured touches and he’s a safe target if nothing special. Marvin Jones was sort of saved right a the buzzer with a touchdown but he also played 90% of the snaps and saw nine targets himself. I’m not looking to attack Denver in a major way and would likely stick to just Chark in GPP.
TE – I certainly didn’t expect to be writing about James O’Shaughnessy after Week 1 but here we are. He played over 85% of the snaps and drew eight targets coming from behind and he is dirt cheap. The aDOT was only 4.9 yards but that’s fine, we’re cool with the tight end being a security blanket for the rookie quarterback. Considering we can safely project the Jaguars to trail quite often this year, O’Shaughnessy showed early chemistry with Lawrence and at this salary, he could be the best punt at the position this week.
D/ST – This team couldn’t stop the Texans and put up the worst fantasy score of the week. Hard pass.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – O’Shaughnessey, Chark, Shenault, Jones, Lawerence
Out – Dre Greenlaw, LB
Doubtful – Emmanuel Moseley, CB
QB – I never walk into a slate saying “I can’t wait to play Jimmy Garoppolo” but he did put up a big stat line in Week 1. It tends to help when 199 of your 314 passing yards come after the catch and that’s going to be the SF offense while he’s under center. Jimmy G is a ball distributor: he’s going to let his guys make the plays and just focus on delivering it to the right guy. Even with the 300-yard bonus on DK, he didn’t clip 20 points and his lone touchdown was a play that a receiver took 70+ yards to the house on a ball that wasn’t well-thrown. He only averaged 3.5 RZ attempts per game last year I tend to think that doesn’t change much. I’d rather go with Teddy B in this price range.
RB – Pour one out for Raheem Mostert who lasted all of two carries last week, but that has opened the door for rookies Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon. I understand that Sermon was inactive, but Mitchell took 63% of the snaps and 86% of the positional attempts. That’s a big number for a Kyle Shanahan-led offense and he produced with over 100 yards and a score. We can never be quite sure how Shanny will deploy his backs week-to-week but Sermon was beaten out by other players to be active in Week 1. It would be a stretch to see him taking the bulk of the carries this week. Typically, I would be hesitant against the Eagles but it has to be talked about that Philly got beat up on the ground a little bit by the Falcons. That’s notable because Atlanta’s offense was trash on Sunday but they still generated 116 rushing yards from their running backs. San Francisco was second in rush yards in 2019 and 15th last year despite not having a real quarterback. There is still potential for Mitchell to 3x his price tag in my eyes and I’m curious to see how the field treats him. We could also see Jamycal Hasty get involved but Mitchell has to enter the week as the main option.
Update – The 49ers have talked up Sermon this week in practice and I will not have Mitchell in my cash pool any longer. I don’t trust Shanahan at this juncture.
WR – Well….it’s pretty much Deebo Samuel or bust for the receivers. Unknown to anyone else, Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t been viewed favorably by Shanahan and the coaching staff,, helping lead to just 47% of the snaps and not one single target. Shanahan has continued to say this week that Aiyuk has to get better so you simply can’t touch him. Deebo is interesting because he got 12 targets but he actually had an 8.2 aDOT in Week 1. That’s a huge difference from last year and Deebo played 22% of his snaps in the slot. I’ll admit that Darius Slay and the Philly secondary played better than I thought last week but the 49ers know how to get their receivers the ball. He shouldn’t see shadow coverage from Slay but he feels pretty expensive and I would rather find the salary for the more elite receivers.
TE – It was a disappointing start for George Kittle and I was ready to just chalk it up to variance. He played almost 95% of the snaps but he only ran 11 routes. ELEVEN. I would suspect that was because San Francisco ran so well and they were up by a much larger margin than the final score would lead you to believe. The Eagles should be able to keep this game much closer and the good news is Kittle drew five targets on 11 routes. When he’s available to catch a pass, Jimmy G was looking for him and that’s the metric we need to see. He’s a stronger spend than the 11.8 DK points last week tells you.
D/ST – Planted right between the Patriots and Browns is an interesting spot. I don’t have a strong need to play them because Philly could be a very low turnover and sack team. They only gave up one sack and a pressure rate under 18% and they had zero turnovers in the first week. The 49ers only got a 15.4% pressure rate last week but only ran a blitz 9.5% of the time. I’ll just play the Pats or Browns right in this range since the 49ers don’t offer me any savings.
Update – The 49ers are already very banged up and I’m not playing them at all. This game is actually a super sneaky one to target for a full stack with the later games taking center stage.
Cash Plays – Mitchell, Jimmy G, Kittle
GPP Plays – Deebo, D/ST, Sermon/Hasty
QB – We saw a little bit of everything from Jalen Hurts this past week, including his rushing cheat code and some significant upside in the passing game. There were definitely a couple of throws that made you queasy but he still completed 77% and didn’t have a turnover, a winning formula for fantasy. I’m really at the point where no matter what the matchup is if it’s rushing quarterback under $7,000…he’s likely a bargain. His rushing production alone was worth 1.5 touchdowns in DK scoring and that’s borderline irreplaceable. San Francisco was ranked ninth in DVOA against the pass but the results didn’t show that at all. Only four other teams gave up more passing yards than the 49ers (even though the game script was heavily slanted towards giving up passing yards) and the secondary is a real concern. Hurts and the Eagles are going to emerge as strong GPP plays with other players in their salary range carrying popularity.
RB – Overall, it was a fairly strong game for Miles Sanders as he played 66% of the snaps and had 19 touches, including four receptions on five targets. He piled up over 110 scrimmage yards and the only thing missing was a score, but those are obviously volatile. I know it’s only one game but the 49ers got blasted by running backs in the passing game last week, yielding a massive 16 receptions and 121 yards. We don’t want to overreact to any one aspect after one week but I don’t think many had San Fran pegged to give up over 200 scrimmage yards to running backs in Week 1.
Now they have to come back across the country and already lost corner Jason Verrett to an ACL injury. If Sanders continues to get fed nearly 20 touches per game, he’s not going to sit under $7,000 very long. Sanders is a very strong GPP play this week. Kenneth Gainwell needs some attention at the minimum price as well. If the 49ers continue to get ripped up through the air, Gainwell could be interesting. He had double-digit touches and three targets in a very positive game script. If Philly loses, Gainwell has even more potential through the air.
WR – I mentioned that the 49ers are already down one of their better corners and the first game for Devonta Smith was impressive. He played plenty of snaps, led the team with eight targets, had a 55.2% air yards share (third-most), and ran 2.45 yards per route. Even with a drop, he flirted with 20 DK points and San Fran has another corner questionable in Emmanuel Moseley. If they are down their top two corners, it’s going to be very difficult to not play Smith once again. Jalen Reagor paid off in spades for us (what’s up Ghost) and he is easily the number two receiver. He played 70% of the snaps and saw six targets, looking every bit like a first-rounder some folks may have given up on just a bit early. He played exclusively on the outside and was targeted on 28.6% of his routes. He did only run 21 routes but keep the score in mind. This game should be a lot more competitive and Reagor could still be virtually ignored against a secondary that is already missing vital cogs.
Update – I love Smith at this point, with SF likely down two of their best corners.
TE – I think that Dallas Goedert is going to be worth the extra $900 over Zach Ertz this week. Ertz is nursing a hammy (although he did come back in Week 1) but Goedert played 73% of the snaps and drew five targets, tied for the second-most on the offense. He didn’t run a lot of routes but his target rate on those routes was 35.7%, which is awesome to see. We can’t say with certainty that this will stick all year but the 49ers just got gashed by T.J. Hockenson last week. I do prefer other cheaper options but won’t fault you if you like Goedert and he could be a game stack piece.
D/ST – Philly got after the quarterback in Week 1 with a 33.3% pressure rate and got home three times. They finished tied for the third-most pressures as well and Jimmy G is the same kind of player as Matt Ryan in that he’s a pocket quarterback. He was only sacked one time but the pass rush for Philly is far superior to the one Detroit trots out. If you can’t stomach the Jets, I could see Philly at home but there’s a risk with both teams.
Cash Plays – Hurts, Smith, Sanders, Goedert
GPP Plays – Reagor, Gainwell
QB – One of the reasons I think Hurts gets practically no attention is Matthew Stafford killed it on an island game where everyone saw it. He went for 321 yards and three touchdowns and while two of those scores were of the very lucky variety (Van Jefferson not getting touched and securing glory for Stix, and then a blown coverage on another), Stafford looked spectacular. Maybe this is confirming prior thoughts but Stafford sure looked like a player that could unlock elements of the Rams offense that Jared Goff never did. The Colts finished 28th in DVOA against the pass in Week 1 and got lit up by Russell Wilson. They did only give up 254 yards but also only faced 23 passing attempts. I think that number climbs above 30 this week and the Rams receiving options are a mismatch.
RB – In honesty, it is kind of hard to get a full read on Darrell Henderson after one game. The Rams didn’t lean into the run game that much until it was towards the end of the game and I would have to imagine his 94% snap rate isn’t going to hold up. The longer Sony Michel is in the system, the more involved I believe he gets even if we don’t know how involved that is. Henderson was strong in his work for the most part but only saw one target. That’s something I expect to keep up because the Rams simply have so many other playmakers, they don’t need to use Henderson a lot. Seeing as how we talked about the secondary playing poorly last week, I expect a very heavy dose of the passing game and have no real need for Henderson this week.
WR – Maybe it’s just a one week deal but based on what we saw, Cooper Kupp is the very clear number one option in the offense over Robert Woods. Kupp played 94% of the snaps and drew a team-leading 10 targets running 44% out of the slot. He was also third in target rate on routes run at 45.5%. Kenny Moore played a ton of slot last year and would likely be tasked with it again for this matchup. He allowed a 65.2% catch rate and I don’t have a slight concern there. It’s not like Kupp would see him every play anyways.
Woods only saw four targets but he did still have two RZ and EZ targets. scoring late. I do prefer Kupp but we saw last week that the Colts’ secondary could have a very tough time with talented receivers. Woods should see more of Xavier Rhodes on the outside, provided Woods plays but he’s no longer a corner we have to worry about. We all went nuts for Van Jefferson last week thanks to Stix but keep in mind – he played 38% of the snaps and saw three targets. He’s the definition of volatile.
Update – Rhodes is out, weakening the defense for the Colts even further.
TE – I’m not sure we could be happier with Tyler Higbee in this offense. He played every single snap, had a 14% slot rate, drew a 23.1% target share, and finished in the top eight in receptions, yards, and yards per route. He also ran a route on almost every single Stafford drop back and is totally cheap for the role in this offense. He and Fant are a coin flip for me and I really like both players.
D/ST – We talked about this last week but we don’t pay for the top salaried defense. The Rams take a big chunk out of your cap, almost 10% and you can play multiple teams that are $800-$1,200 cheaper and has very similar outcomes. I won’t have the Rams in any lineup since they are so expensive.
Cash Plays – Kupp, Stafford, Higbee
GPP Plays – Woods, Jefferson, Henderson
Out – Xavier Rhodes, CB
Q – Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman, WR and Eric Fisher, Quenton Nelson, OL – Keep an eye on this injury report as it could change the complexion of the offense in a hurry Sunday morning.
QB – I’m pretty willing to cast aside Carson Wentz quickly in this one. He should have been able to put up a big game with the Colts in trail mode early and often, but he only ranked 18th in air yards. I don’t expect that to change much in this start and other options are only a couple of hundred dollars more. The Rams ran the sixth-highest blitz rate and Wentz was pressured over 31% of the time in Week 1. That’s not a good mix for him. With Bridgewater right there against the Jags, Teddy B just makes way more sense to my mind in cash and you’d only play Wentz for a ceiling that he doesn’t appear to have.
RB – If I’m playing a running back from this team this week, it’s Nyheim Hines because he is far too cheap in this spot. Since we talked about the blitz and pressure rates, I think it’s more than fair to expect Wentz to continue to be Captain Checkdown. Last week saw Hines and Jonathan Taylor combined for eight and seven targets, and Hines tacked on nine carries on top of that. We’re talking about a back who should exceed 15 touches for under $5,000 and is a borderline lock for five receptions. I don’t foresee the Colts stopping the Rams’ offense, which should put them in a pass-heavy script. LA can pin their ears back to get after the quarterback and Wentz will just get the ball out of his hands. Save the $2,500 and play Hines and full credit to Ghost for being on this very early in the week. He’s dead on the money.
WR – Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal are the top dogs in this receiving corps as they played over 90% of the snaps and Pascal looks like the man to play since he scored twice, had two RZ targets, and had the higher aDOT. The truth is the game script demanded the Colts pass early and often, and yet these two players combined for nine targets. That doesn’t leave a lot of meat on the bone and Jalen Ramsey will be patrolling the other side. We talked about thinking we see a ton of check-downs from Wentz and I will happily play a lot of other receivers.
TE – This is a pretty ugly timeshare with Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox as both players had a snap rate over 51% last week. That’s likely to happen again because they’ll need help blocking the Rams Alie-Cox ran just 14 routes and Doyle was at 22 but had only four targets. I think that the backs are going to continue to have a large share of the passing game, making either tight end a super-thin play.
D/ST – After watching this Rams offense and the lethal passing game they possess, I will have zero Colts defense. They shouldn’t even be on our radars.
Cash Plays – Hines
GPP Plays – Taylor
O – Richie Incognito, OL, Josh Jacobs, RB
Q – Carl Nassib, Yannick Ngakoue, DL
QB – Ladies and gentlemen, your leader in air yards after one game…Derek Carr. I wouldn’t have put money on that heading into the week but the Ravens just kept daring him to make throws and he made enough to rack up 435 passing yards, also the leader after one game. He is so cheap coming into this one that I think he can be considered, but I’m not convinced it needs to be a strong consideration. I would expect a lot of pass attempts because I don’t think the Raiders generate much on the ground but the Steelers defense played extremely well against the Bills offense. They wound up sixth in DVOA against the pass and of course, it’s not set in stone, but Vegas is on a short week and traveling. I firmly believe we can do better.
RB – I’m truly not that interested in Josh Jacobs this week as I’m not going to chase two touchdowns. One should have been a touchdown pass for Hunter Renfroe is not for pass interference and Jacobs absolutely has to score to pay off. Now, I do expect him to play more than 52% of the snaps and have more than 10 carries per game the rest of the way. He was banged up and sick coming into this game, but there’s still not a strong need to go to Jacobs. Pittsburgh has been stout against the run for years now and didn’t give us a reason to think that changed much in Week 1. It was nice to see Kenyan Drake see five targets in the passing game but he’s $200 more than Hines and I don’t think it’s all that close on playing Hines ahead of him.
Update – Jacobs is out but Jon Gruden is talking up Peyton Barber ahead of Kenyan Drake, and I want nothing to do with this backfield.
WR – I personally didn’t see near enough from Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs to take a shot here because they just weren’t involved enough. They got five targets each but the tight end in this offense is beyond the number one option in this offense. Those two made a splash play each but that was about it. If you’re going anywhere, it’s Hunter Renfrow. He only played 55% of the snaps but he’s running out of the slot and the Steelers just had some issues with that position. You could get a Cole Beasley-style game and Renfrow had a touchdown taken away. He had nine targets with a 6.9 aDOT and he’s barely over minimum salary. The only corner I somewhat avoid from Pittsburgh is Joe Haden and Renfrow will not see him virtually at all.
TE – Carr really doesn’t care if Darren Waller is covered, not covered, has three defenders within five yards, it just doesn’t matter. Carr is throwing it up for Waller to go get and he saw nineteen targets in Week 1. Needless to say, he leads the position in nearly every single category and is worth the spend. I can’t say I’m going to force him into builds but the matchup and any other factors don’t really matter. Waller is going to see a massive amount of targets every single week.
D/ST – Las Vegas played some serious defense on Monday night but the short week and travel won’t help this week. They also draw a Steelers offense that doesn’t allow sacks and don’t really turn the ball over. Pittsburgh only allowed 21 sacks last year and only two in Week 1 with no turnovers once again.
Cash Plays – Waller, Renfrow
GPP Plays – Jacobs, Drake
QB – It was an all-around gross game for Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1. A part of me says it’s the first game under a new OC on the road in Buffalo and that is a challenge. Big Ben played nearly no preseason and it took some time for the offense to show up (they did look better in the second half). The other part of me sees 5.9 yards per attempt and numerous missed throws and is quite concerned. He was 16th in air yards which is a step up from last year, so I’d be willing to give him one more chance. The Steelers are rife with playmakers at the skill positions but this would be an MME play only. He didn’t do much to inspire confidence but let’s see him at home against a lesser defense before putting the nail in the coffin.
RB – The stats didn’t look great for Najee Harris after just one game but that trend could turn quickly. The Raiders were allowing big plays to Ty’Son Williams on Monday night until the Ravens started feeding Latavius Murray for two-yard gains but one thing is clear in Pittsburgh. Harris is THE man as no other back played so much as a single snap. They left the rookie on the field for every play and he had 17 touches. I grant you that he and Big Ben were out of sync a couple of times in the passing game but it’s not like Harris got yanked off the field for any errors. I fully expect him to continue to get every single opportunity because this is what the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers have done for years. He’s got a game under his belt and is still wildly underpriced for his role and potential.
Update – I get there is concern about the offensive line, but almost the entire Raiders defensive line outside of Maxx Crosby is questionable. They already lost tackle Gerald McCoy. If you want to fade Najee in GPP, I’m behind that but I’m not fading in cash games.
WR – It basically went exactly as I thought last week for the Pittsburgh wide receivers as Diontae Johnson saw 10 targets and only played 75% of the snaps, partially due to an injury. He’s a PPR machine and saw the only RZ targets out of the receiving corps. He’s still not out of my range as far as salary and we should honestly expect him to lead in targets like he does almost every game.
The other two get a little more difficult. JuJu Smith-Schuster played the most snaps and Pittsburgh values his blocking. Chase Claypool was stuck once again capped around 65% of the snaps and he’s going to be wildly volatile until that changes. His role is a deep threat since his aDOT was 12.2 and the other two weren’t over 6.3 yards. Johnson gets a tougher matchup on paper against Casey Hayward but Johnson is a good enough route runner he can still get it done. JuJu could see some of rookie Nate Hobbs and that would be a spot the veteran can make work for him. Those two combined for 18 targets and are my favorite plays of the corps.
TE – It didn’t appear that either Eric Ebron or Pat Freiermuth is going to make a strong fantasy impact right off the bat. They combined for just three targets and they both hovered around 50% of the snaps. With a player like O’Shaughnessy right at the same salary as Freiermuth and showing a strong role in the offense, it’s hard to go this route.
D/ST – Derek Carr was harassed all the time at 24.6% and was sacked three times while the Steelers got pressure at a 32.7% rate, the third-best rate in Week 1. Carr only had a 28.6% completion rate under pressure and the Steelers are very cheap for a favored defense at home.
Cash Plays – Najee, Johnson, JuJu, D/ST
GPP Plays – Claypool, Big Ben
O – Kwon Alexander, LB, Marcus Davenport, DE
Q – Marshon Lattimore, CB
QB – I can safely say Week 1 had to be the most bizarre outcome for Jameis Winston that I could have come up with. He only threw the ball 20 times and for only 148 yards but he made those attempts count with five touchdowns. Talk about running hot. The game was so out of control early that I don’t think we should assume this is his role now. It does appear that Taysom Hill is still a thing with a RZ rushing attempt but we likely just have to live with that. Winston is totally fine at the salary but I prefer others. I just don’t think we saw the true Saints offense in Week 1 and I have more trust elsewhere. To be frank, Famous Jameis as a game manager isn’t all that appealing for fantasy.
RB – I was frankly a little surprised to see Alvin Kamara get 20 carries since that is very much not his wheelhouse. He’s typically been more of a 12-14 carry player with 4-6 receptions on top of that so we need to decipher if this was a new plan for New Orleans or just game script. I tend to think the latter because Green Bay got trounced and all of the work in the passing game for Kamara came in the first half. After that, it was mostly about salting the game away and not getting hurt. We can’t take too much from the early ranks for Carolina’s defense either because the Jets didn’t utilize their backs to any significant degree. Kamara is the usual outstanding play but he’s in a bit of an odd salary tier. For $1,000 less, I can go with Chubb, or I can find a way to get to CMC in a poor matchup (on paper). Tony Jones was involved but this is not the week to take shots with him, especially with Williams and Hines in that same range.
WR – We more or less saw the Marquez Callaway bomb coming a mile away and I hope it didn’t burn anyone in GPP. He only played 62.5% of the snaps but game flow should be noted. With a matchup against Donte Jackson this week, Callaway is in much better shape since Jackson allowed a 1.56 FPPT. Deonte Harris played the opposing spot on the boundary and score a touchdown, going 2/72/2. I do think both are in play because Jameis is going to have to throw more than 20 times but I’d reserve them for GPP only.
TE – I was going to tell you to not fall for Juwan Johnson after he scored two touchdowns but DK has him listed as a receiver, not a tight end. Either way, Johnson ran all of eight routes and just happened to catch two touchdowns. Adam Trautman was the player we want as he posted a 30% target share and was targeted on 42.9% of his routes run, impressive marks considering Jameis threw all of 20 passes. He’s still only $3,000 and even if the Saints win, the game should be more competitive than last week. This is what the fantasy community hoped for with Trautman in the offseason.
D/ST – The Saints were able to confuse the Packers while running a blitz only 13.5% of the time and got pressure just 21.6% of the time. What’s interesting is the Panthers allowed a 33.3% pressure rate but only gave up one sack. I don’t want to chase the big game from the Saints but there’s nothing wrong with the spot. I want to see if Marcus Lattimore plays as well.
Cash Plays – Kamara, Trautman
GPP Plays – Callaway, Harris, Jameis
QB – Look, this one will be quick – Absolutely not with Sam Darnold. The Saints defense just laid waste to the Packers offense and even at $5,200, you can’t go there. They only allowed 201 passing yards and finished first in DVOA against the pass by against Aaron Rodgers. He might be the last option I’d play at the position.
RB – It’s astounding that Christian McCaffrey is the RB1 in PPR scoring just because he achieved that feat without scoring a touchdown. He racked up 187 scrimmage yards and tacked on nine receptions to lead all backs in scoring and it could have been even more. The Saints defense just whipped the Packers in every facet imaginable but I can’t and won’t take CMC off the table. I’m not saying he’s a must-have by any means, but if the field shies away…I’d be very interested. He led the team with 27% of the target share and I’d doubt that lets up anytime soon. Darnold is going to take his fair share of quick passes and let CMC do the work.
Update – The Saints defense is missing some key pieces (granted, that was last week as well) and I wonder if CMC goes berserk at very low popularity.
WR – If Robby Anderson hadn’t scored a touchdown, I’m not sure I would have known he was playing on Sunday. He matched the 81% of the snaps for D.J. Moore but saw three targets to eight for Moore while CMC led everyone. It’s going to be difficult to support three receivers AND CMC every week, and that likely leads to a lot of boom or bust weeks for Anderson. Moore has the safety of the number one options and we’ll need to see if Lattimore plays before breaking down any matchups. Terrance Marshall was another cheap receiver who let us down, but his opportunity was strong with two RZ targets and one EZ look. He was targeted six times on his 53% snap share and played a ton out of the slot. With that role, he’s going to have some weeks where he goes off.
TE – Dan Arnold is not involved nearly enough in the offense to play this week.
D/ST – Carolina played a strong game and got home six times and they got a pressure rate over 32% in Week 1. Winston looked strong in his first start, only throwing one really poor interception (that was called back) but he also didn’t have to do very much. The Panthers are priced at a point where they’d be alright but I’m not sure what the upside really is.
Cash Plays – CMC, Moore
GPP Plays – Marshall
QB – After seeing the amount of time Arizona got into the backfield against Tennessee, I’ll admit to some nerves playing Kirk Cousins this week. Arizona tied for sixth in pressures in Week 1 with 11 and got a pressure over 25% of the time. Cousins was under pressure the sixth-most of any quarterback last week and at least in 2020, he was 22nd in pressured completion rate. His stats look very solid at a 73.5% completion rate, 351 yards, and two touchdowns but he won’t stand up to that amount of pressure indefinitely. I’ll find the salary for Stafford or Hurts and if I’m playing a quarterback in this game, he’s coming from the other team.
RB – It was a pretty impressive effort from Arizona to hold Derrick Henry in check last week but the task doesn’t get any easier with Dalvin Cook on deck. His stats won’t show a lot but Cook had his normal volume with 20 carries and six receptions, even if he was mostly a disappointing day. Cook dominated the snaps and touches all while adding in a 14.9% target share which is why he was going as a top-three pick all offseason. Cook also brings a more stable floor to the able than Henry since he’s more involved in the passing game. If I’m spending up I’m just going to CMC since he has the most stable floor in fantasy because neither of their matchups stands out strongly. I believe there are better ways to get exposure to this game.
WR – It’s an odd place to start but let’s talk about K.J. Osborn and his potential. He’s nearly minimum on DK but he was the slot receiver for Minnesota and garnered an 81% snap share with nine targets. That’ll pay the bills easily at his salary and we should project a pass-heavy script for the Vikings again.
The duo of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen played well and JJ had a touchdown taken away on replay that had no business being called back. Theilen led in targets and receptions, but the targets were almost dead even. Arizona played extremely well in Week 1, but this secondary is still made up of corners like Robert Alford, Byron Murphy, and Luq Barcoo. These two just come close to double-digit targets once again and make for perfect game stack pieces.
TE – Tyler Conklin ran a lot of routes at 28 but was only targeted four times. He caught all four and had a cement amount of air yards at 31 but we should likely expect him to help block in this game. Minnesota played three receivers a lot and I think that likely continues this week, it’s more the role we should expect for Conklin that has me not interested.
D/ST – The list of defenses we’re going to play against Kyler and the Cards is not very long and the Vikings aren’t on it.
Cash Plays – Cook, Thielen, Jefferson
GPP Plays – Osborn
QB – With quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers off this slate, there is no doubt Kyler Murray should be the QB1 in salary. He was absurd on Sunday, totaling five touchdowns and putting up over 34 DK points despite just 20 yards rushing. Kyler was 10th in air yards and just proved to be impossible to defend. Minnesota had their issues defending the Bengals and Murray is going to present a much larger issue than that. If he can put this up with just 20 yards rushing and only one RZ rush attempt, the ceiling could actually go even higher. If you have the salary, you play him with impunity. If Minnesota stays 21st in DVOA against the pass, he could go full nuclear. Don’t worry about the pace numbers overall either. This is what Zona looked like when the game mattered – sixth in pace in a neutral game, seventh in pace up by 6 points, 11th in pace up over 7 points, and seventh in pace the first half.
RB – Right up there with Hines as far as cheap running backs go, Chase Edmonds appears to be a glaring value. The Cardinals went up early last week and while James Conner did have 16 carries to 12 for Edmonds, the latter played more snaps at 58%, had more rushing yards, and had a 12.5% target share with four. I’d rather Conner be the hammer back and Edmonds gets the receiving work since that is more valuable to fantasy. Edmonds also ran a route on 68% of Kyler dropbacks so the potential for more receiving work is there for him in a game that should be more competitive. Minnesota just got wrecked by Joe Mixon and Edmonds is a very cheap source of 15 touches. Realistically, Conner is as well and he had a 3-1 RZ rushing attempt advantage, but I’d value the passing game role more.
WR – Let’s get this out of the way – DeAndre Hopkins is going to stuff corner Patrick Peterson in his locker if they try and use Pat P on Nuk this week. Hopkins was his monster self in Week 1, playing 88% of the snaps, eating 25% of the targets, and earning a 34.3% air yards share. You can play him without hesitation.
The “A.J. Green is revitalized” train didn’t last long, as he was fourth in production last week in a game that saw Kyler throw four touchdowns. They tried to get him the ball with six targets but Christian Kirk was second fiddle on just five targets and 56% of the snaps. Considering the Cards called off the dogs, these are very encouraging signs and Kirk played mostly in the slot, running the 10th highest yards per route at 3.89. He’d face Mackensie Alexander in the slot and he allowed a 1.56 FPPT last year. Randale Moore played just 29% of the snaps in his first contest and while some of his plays flashed, that’s not super exciting…..yet. I would reserve him for MME formats only, but I don’t think playing Kirk is chasing.
TE – No tight end recorded a fantasy point last week.
D/ST – The Cardinals are a solid option here as well. They aren’t over $3,000, the duo of Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt looks like a very good tandem, and they got a pressure rate over 25%. They also forced three turnovers and tied for the most sacks in Week 1. Kirk Cousins was under the gun 32.7% last week which was a top-six rate in football. There are a lot of factors going in Arizona’s favor, especially if they force Minnesota to pass a lot more than normal.
Cash Plays – Kyler, Hopkins, Edmonds, D/ST
GPP Plays – Kirk, Conner, Moore
QB – Alright, maybe I lied about Sam Darnold. Matt Ryan is the last guy I’d play on this slate and this is a perfect case of Week 1 stats not holding a lot of weight. The Bucs allowed the second-most passing yards (and lost an important corner in Sean Murphy-Bunting) but the Falcons offense does not equal the Dallas offense. We talked last week that pressure could derail the Falcons and Ryan since he was 19th in pressured-completion rate and the Eagles got pressure about a third of the time. Ryan only generated 4.7 yards per attempt and this spot does not speak well for a rebound.
RB – One of the lessons we re-learned in Week was 1 was you do not play running backs against Tampa Bay. It’s nice to see Mike Davis get treated like a workhorse with 75% of the snaps and 15 attempts with six targets, but Tampa is where RB production goes to die. With the Eagles showing you can really get pressure on Ryan, I fully expect the Bucs to replicate that success. Maybe Davis racks up some receptions (and he did last year in Carolina against the Bucs) but we have cheaper backs in better spots with passing game roles as well. Davis is easy to get away from.
WR – Everything was there for Calvin Ridley that we expected with a 24% target share and a 49.5% air yards share, but it didn’t translate last week largely due to quarterback play. It’s not a good matchup at all for than trend to reverse, but it’s also hard to see Ridley at $7,500 on DK and not want to take shots. The field will be playing everyone else and if Ridley gets under 5%, he just makes too much sense as a GPP target. He would be the only receiver I’d look at given the defense Atlanta is facing.
Update – Bucs corner Carlton Davis popped up on Friday with a hamstring injury and that usually doesn’t bode well for someone playing on Sunday. I’m still not overjoyed with Ridley because Ryan has to get the ball to him, but the individual matchup would get a whole lot better.
TE – There is no getting around Kyle Pitts being a disappointment last week and I don’t feel a strong need to play him this week given our other options. Pitts had fantastic usage with 71% of the snaps, a route on 90% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs, and was split out wide or in the slot for the majority of the snaps. He drew a 26.7% target share which was in the top-five and it’s only a matter of time before he has a breakout game.
D/ST – Not a chance against Tompa Bay.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Pitts, Ridley
QB – Tom Brady continues to not age, throwing 50 passing attempts in the first game with four touchdowns and two pretty fluky interceptions. He had his receiving corps drop multiple passes so he should have cleared 400 yards and this Atlanta defense does not look like a unit that can mount resistance. They were 27th in DVOA against the pass, allowed 264 yards to Jalen Hurts, and only had one sack and QB knockdown. It’s a high price to pay for a quarterback with absolutely no rushing ability but Brady was second in air yards and has one of the most talented receiving trios in football.
RB – The Bucs taught us lessons everywhere in Week 1 because we don’t trust Bruce Arians with his running back rotation. Ronald Jones had one fumble and was banished to the Nether-Realm, never to be seen again in Week 1. Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette totally botched an easy catch that led to an interception for Brady. That makes no sense other than BA just hates RoJo. If you believe that Jones is the starter…I’ll sell you a bridge.
Having said all of that, this is the spot for RoJo to rip off 125+ yards and a touchdown because everyone is going to play Brady and the passing game (and they should). We saw Mile Sanders have some success and even though Jones has no role in the passing game, he could easily have 15 carries here. If he does, he could put up a big fantasy game but this is an MME play only. I have no interest in Uncle Lenny since it took Jones fumbling to get him on the field for 64% of the snaps. I’m not buying into his seven targets either, and the article from bucswire.usatoday.com illustrates exactly why.
“We don’t like to throw to backs if we don’t have to,” Arians said. “They’re check-down people. We don’t bring backs in here to throw them 100 passes. We’ve got enough guys outside to throw 100 passes to.”
WR – We can start off by saying I fear no corner from the Falcons group. A.J. Terrell, Isaiah Oliver, and Fabian Moreau aren’t going to slow down this Buccaneers receiving crew. Antonio Brown got the biggest highlight-reel play when he broke loose for a long bomb score but we have to point out his snap rate was only 64.6% and his target share was only 15.2%. AB can turn that into production, but I was hoping for more. He was still 12th in yards run per route so that is helpful.
Chris Godwin played the majority out of the slot which is what we expected and sucked up a 30.4% target share. He was flat out a monster and it would stand to reason he’s going to continue that trend this week. He’s the most expensive but he also deserves to be based on what we have seen, including his four RZ targets. What is the most interesting to me is the potential buy-low on Mike Evans. He was terrible on Thursday Night, getting mostly locked up by Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs. Evans was still on the field for 93% of the snaps but only saw six targets and none came in the RZ. If he’s ignored relative to the other two receivers, we need to really pay attention to that.
TE – Old man Rob Gronkowski is still out here getting it down, playing the seventh-most snaps, and running the fourth-most routes among tight ends. His eight targets were also the third-most and he was an absolute monster. Realistically, he should not be cheaper than Pitts and I don’t think this was just a fluky game. Sure, he won’t score two touchdowns every week but this offense is going to be impossible to defend. Gronk should see plenty of one-on-one chances and he’s still more than capable of taking advantage.
D/ST – Tampa is in the same sort of spot the Rams are. They are a great play by the metrics but they are so expensive that it’s hard to get on board. Matt Ryan was pressured over 30% of the time last week and Tampa has all the tools to do that again. It’s just hard to drop this salary on defense, which is crazy volatile.
Cash Plays – Brady, Godwin, Gronk
GPP Plays – AB, Evans, RoJo
QB – Ryan Tannehill….what happened? He was very #NotGood on Sunday, uncharacteristically turning the ball over three times and getting pressured 31% of the time. Then there is this – after sitting third in play-action attempts last year, Tannehill had exactly two on Sunday. That is not going to help this offense at all and if it was the same coaching staff, I’d brush it off. That was jarring to see with a new OC and while I certainly believe this was just a bad day at the office, for the most part, I’m not running to play Tannehill. I suspect he has to throw a lot in this game because the Tennessee defense is going to get scorched by the Seattle passing game.
RB – He started slowly last year and it shouldn’t be much different this year…but I’ll admit I’m a little bit spooked with Derrick Henry right now. He got 17 carries and six (!!) targets on 62% of the snaps in one of the worst game scripts he could have. Everything went wrong….but my fear is that could be an issue for most of the year. His offensive line got pushed around in a big way and the Seahawks held the Colts to just 90 rushing yards against the backs in Week 1. The largest fear is this Tennessee defense that got demolished by Kyler and the Cardinals cannot contain the Seahawks in Seattle and the script gets out of hand for Henry again. With plenty of other options, I’m not really looking at Henry this week.
WR – If Chester Rogers gets as many targets as Julio Jones again this week, it might be time for the Titans to switch their OC. Julio and A.J. Brown both played over 78% of the snaps and saw a RZ target each. It easily could have been a product of the offensive line play but AJB had a 1.48 yards per route tun, 58th in football. Julio was at 1.12, 74th in the NFL. That is simply criminal. This is a great bounce-back spot for both, and I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel saying that. Brown will likely see some of Tre Flowers while Julio will see D.J. Reed. Both allowed over a 1.50 FPPT and a passer rating over 81. Seeing as how the defense is not very likely to stop Seattle and we should see them continue to pass just a little bit more than 2020.
TE – Anthony Firkser played 38.7% of the snaps and while he drew four targets, that was only 11.4% of the target share and I’m not playing a tight end that doesn’t see the field over 40% of the time especially at $3,400.
D/ST – I’ll play the Jets before I try and go after the Seattle offense at home.
Cash Plays – Brown, Julio
GPP Plays – Henry, Tannehill
QB – I’ve definitely liked some quarterbacks so far but if folks let Russell Wilson be rostered around 5% again, it’s time to go back to the well. He flirted with 30 DK points and threw for four touchdowns on just 23 attempts for a 152.3 passer rating. That’s efficiency and we just saw a QB with similar traits destroy this Tennessee defense. They were 26th in DVOA against the pass and only generated a 14% pressure rate. That was a massive issue last year for the Titans and if you can’t get Russ off his spot, he’s going to positively shred you.
RB – I certainly don’t have any issues playing Chris Carson since he did exactly what was expected with 77% of the snaps and took 84% of the running back attempts. He also had three targets which aren’t bad considering Wilson only threw only 20 times and the Titans allowed almost 160 scrimmage yards to the backs in Week 1. Carson is just one of those guys at a mid-range salary that is totally fine and brings plenty of safety to the table. I just believe Russ can go nuclear again and would much rather just play the passing game and go with a Najee or another route over Carson.
WR – There are some great spots on this slate but one of them absolutely has to be the double-barrel stack of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Locket with Russ. Both only saw five targets last week which was slightly annoying but the hope here is Tannehill can mount more of a threat than Indy did last week. Lockett saw the majority of the air yard share at 51.9% which is a surprise compared to 2020. Typically, Metcalf is the downfield threat and he acquitted himself well for not seeing a single target in the first half. There wasn’t a corner for Tennessee that didn’t get scorched last week, including Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden who could be the primary defenders on Metcalf and Fulton. It truly doesn’t matter with Russ at the helm with these receivers.
TE – Gerald Everett scored the touchdown but Will Dissly played almost the same amount of snaps and had three targets to two for Everett. What I’m saying is this is another timeshare and the touchdown shouldn’t skew things for you. We can safely pass and find better options.
D/ST – If they were a little cheaper, I might be willing to take chances. As it stands, the Steelers, Bengals, and Bears all make more sense at the same salary tier. The Seahawks blitzed 25% of the time and got pressure on 31.8% of the plays last week with three sacks.
Cash Plays – Russ, Carson
GPP Plays – Metcalf, Lockett
QB – Let’s get this out of the way – this is almost certain to be the game of the week as far as fantasy goes. It checked in on Tuesday with the highest O/U on the board and the game as a whole is entirely too cheap. That goes for Dak Prescott who threw 58 passes on Thursday night and played out of his mind. There were some imperfect moments to be sure but to drop over 400 yards on Tampa is impressive no matter what. Now, the volume won’t remain the same at 58 attempts but Dak is throwing to two of the better receivers in football at a minimum. If they can get the run game going a little bit, that’s going to open up even more lanes. Don’t get me wrong, they should have thrown the ball all over the yard in Tampa. It was the right gameplay but a bit more balance can still help Dak. The Chargers faced a backup QB for a lot of the game so only allowing 135 passing yards means little to me.
RB – If we got points for pass protection, Ezekiel Elliott might be the RB1 right now because he was excellent protecting Dak in Week 1. We don’t but I don’t think we’re going to see nearly the same issues this week. To wit, the OC in Dallas called plenty of run plays last week –
It’s not going to be often that we catch Zeke at $6,200 and I very honestly think this is a strong mis-price. It’s an overreaction to Week 1’s stats and if Dallas calls that many run plays again (why wouldn’t they), Zeke has every chance to shatter this price tag. The targets weren’t there but he ran a route on over 70% of dropbacks. The matchup is in a totally different realm and Zeke is at least $1,000 too cheap this week. Dallas lost lineman La’el Collins but should get Zack Martin back, which is a trade-off I’ll take. If there’s a running back that can rival my love of Najee at the salary, it’s 1,000% Zeke Elliott.
WR – Another spot where we aren’t breaking news, but I don’t know how you can’t want to play CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper literally everywhere this week. DK made a big mistake in pricing both these receivers under $7,000 with Michael Gallup being inactive for the next couple of weeks. Only Darren Waller and Tyreek Hill came out of Week 1 with either more or the same amount of targets and both players exceeded 26 DK points. Lamb especially didn’t even play all that well with multiple drops and another pass that he would tell you he should catch. They just walked through one of the most difficult matchups on the board and their defense is down their best pass rusher. Dallas is going to need to score points and a lot of them. Both Asante Samuel and Michael Davis will be tasked with facing these two dynamic receivers and their stats look great from last week, but they aren’t facing Taylor Heinicke this week.
Update – Chris Harris played a good bit of slot corner for the Chargers last week and Lamb played in the slot 42%… but now Harris is out and Lamb could see more on the outside anyways with Gallup out. If you’re only playing one receiver, play Lamb in cash and Cooper in GPP.
TE – The loss of Gallup could put more production on Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin and Schultz seems to have the lead as far as fantasy production goes. He had six targets, played out of the slot 23% of the time, and saw a 30% target rate on his routes. Jarwin only saw an 18.2% rate on his routes and just a 7% target share and with the pricing so close, I’d play Schultz. Safety Derwin James does loom on the other side but the role is enough and it’s not like James will totally shadow Schultz either.
D/ST – DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory both missed Wednesday practice, Gregory with Covid. I wasn’t that interested given the Washington defense couldn’t do much with the Chargers offensive line, I’m certainly not going with Dallas if they’re missing pass rushers.
Cash Plays – Dak, Cooper, Lamb
GPP Plays – Zeke, Schultz
O – Chris Harris, CB
QB – So this might be one of the most fascinating stats to come from Week 1- Justin Herbert was only pressured 12.2% against Washington and that is remarkable. Only Matthew Stafford faced less heat and the Chargers were credited with at least six drops on Sunday that would have pushed the stat line for Herbert even further. Herbert was pressured almost 29% of the time last year and the Chargers went to work on the O-line for their young gunslinger and it paid off immediately. If they held Washington at bay, it’s hard to believe Dallas and their 6% pressure rate can get home. Herbert is not Brady but we could be seeing this Chargers offense take a major shift, one that would favor Herbert to clear 300 yards and multiple touchdowns every single week.
RB – In a visit from the topsy-turvy world, Austin Ekeler had zero targets in Week 1. That’s kind of crazy but let’s take a deeper look. First off, Ekeler only played 58% of the snaps and that’s not a huge surprise since he was banged up with a hamstring injury. He did have 15 carries and seven came in the red zone, which is great to see. It’s only one game but I wonder if we’re seeing a small change in the LA offense. With Herbert being pressured so much less, could we be seeing more downfield work to the receivers and less work for Ekeler? That’s not to say he won’t get targets, but perhaps he won’t be the PPR demon we all expected. It’s going to be fascinating to watch and I’m not sure we need to spend up for Ekeler if we don’t have that receiving floor. It is worth noting he didn’t have a catch in Week 1 last year, but I do think the offensive line play will be a factor in how this offense runs.
WR – You have your choice of runback in the passing game between Mike Williams and Keenan Allen and I will (not surprisingly) lean-to Allen. He continued to play at least 40% of his snaps in the slot and would leave him off Trevon Diggs, who just put Mike Evans on ice. Williams only played 5 snaps in the slot and is a clear boundary receiver while earning 12 targets last week. What I was honestly happy to see is Williams only ran 1.95 yards per route, which would give him a lot more stability week-to-week. It’s great to have deep ball ability but that only gets you so much. I’ll trade a 6.8 yards per target compared to 8.9 from last year if he’s going to see eight receptions. This is more matchup-based and Allen makes more sense against Jourdan Lewis. Both are very viable though if the Chargers’ offensive line continues to dominate. The deep GPP flier is Jalen Guyton who played over 65% of the snaps and saw five targets. He only had a 4.4 aDOT but he has the speed to go deep, especially if Diggs contains Williams.
TE – I had hopes for Donald Parham but he only ran 10 routes while Jared Cook saw eight targets, ran 28 routes, and played 42% from the slot. If Ekeler does see his target share drop, that has to be redistributed. I don’t believe it’s something we set in stone, but we saw Dallas struggle defending the tight end in a major way last week. In a game where we’re projecting shootout, Cook is a strong option in a game stack especially. As a one-off, I’m a little less enthused since we can play Fant or Higbee.
D/ST – This is one of the premier offensive games of the week and the Cowboys played well against one of the best defenses in football last week. We have better options.
Cash Plays – Herbert, Allen, Cook
GPP Plays – Ekeler, Williams
Justin Herbert, Najee Harris, Chris Carson, Noah Fant
Javonte Williams, Amari Cooper, Nyheim Hines, CeeDee Lamb (in all formats)
Cowboys/Chargers – You can stack this game all over the place and everyone is going to. I personally believe that you should have three players from this game in cash and then you can go higher in GPP. When stacking, keep in mind that it is chalky so find ways to be different. For example, you can play Herbert with Keenan Allen and then also Jared Cook or Austin Ekeler instead of Mike Williams. Perhaps you go Dak Prescott, both Cowboys receivers, Mike Williams, and then you play a combo of cheaper backs like Javonte Williams and Nyheim Hines to make it unique. I want a lot of pieces from this game, just be sure to attack it differently than Herbert/Allen/Lamb in GPP.
Seahawks/Titans – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett, Carson – Run Backs – Brown, Henry, Julio, Tannehill
49ers/Eagles – Hurts, Smith, Sanders, Goedert – Run Backs – Deebo, Kittle, Mitchell, Sermon
Vikings/Cardinals – Kyler, Hopkins – Run Backs – Jefferson, Thielen, Osborn, Cook – You can use Edmonds or A.J. Green but generally, I only want a single stack with Kyler and hope he runs for two and hits Hopkins for two.
These four would be the main games to focus on but there are two others that I believe we can target with the stacking strategy.
Rams/Colts – Stafford, Kupp, Higbee, Woods, Henderson – Run Backs – Hines, Taylor
Falcons/Bucs – Brady, Godwin, Evans, AB – Run Backs – Pitts, Ridley
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Welcome to Week 1and it is the best time of the year! Football is just around the corner and if you are new this season (or returning from last year), I want to say THANK YOU for reading. I know it’s a long article and you have a life. I genuinely appreciate you taking the time to read this one, as it’s my favorite article. We will always be updating this after it’s published every week to keep everything up and up. Without any further ado, let’s jump into the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 1 to find out who we like!
QB – For a player that finished the 2020 season sixth in passing touchdowns, eighth in yards, and seventh in air yards, nobody ever seems to really like Kirk Cousins. Cousins was third in yards per attempt and was only 14th in total attempts, showing some efficiency through the air. The Bengals finished last year 19th in passing yards allowed and 27th in passing DVOA, nothing impressive. The issue for gauging this season is the Bengals brought in (or got back from injury) four or five defensive starters. The top three corners are Mike Hilton, Trae Waynes, and Chidobe Awuzie and none of those players recorded a snap for the Bengals last season. If the trends from last season continue, Cousins shouldn’t face much pressure as the Bengals were bottom-three in the league in creating pressure. Cousins was second in clean completion rate at 81.7% so he’s fine if he is a somewhat pricey option on DK.
Update – Rookie lineman Christian Darrisaw is out and that’s not super helpful, but doesn’t take me off any Minnesota skill player.
RB – No other running back had more RZ touches than Dalvin Cook last year and his 312 carries for 1,557 yards were both second in the league. On top of that, he was 11th in routes run and ninth in target share among backs at 13.4%. Cincinnati was 21st in DVOA against the run in 2020 and they gave up almost 2,500 total yards. Only three teams allowed more rushing yards last season and Cook is one of the most reliable fantasy backs in football. His price tag is fair, even if I might prefer a few backs for a little less money. I won’t talk you off from Cook, that’s for sure.
WR – I’ve been a little hesitant buying all the way into Justin Jefferson this year but this passing tree is going to be pretty narrow. It’s Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Cook….and then those three guys all over again. After Jefferson’s breakout in Week 3 of last year, he was targeted at least eight times in eight of the next 113 games and didn’t dip below that mark in the final six contests. Jefferson was 16th in total targets but sixth in target share at 26.5% and eighth in air yards share at 37.1%. Other than being just 29th in RZ targets, Jefferson was excellent in almost every single other metric and that was despite being 38th in catchable rate. He was seventh in FPPR (fantasy points per route) and if he scores a few more touchdowns, he could be a top-five receiver. The matchup against Chidobe Awuzie isn’t a concern as he was 76th in FPPT (fantasy points per target) and allowed a 71.7% catch rate.
The rub with the touchdowns for Jefferson is Thielen is still there and he commanded 20 RZ targets, third-most in the league. Thielen converted for 14 touchdowns on a 25.2% target share and was 10th in air yards share, numbers that could stand up again this year (except he likely doesn’t score 14 times again). Thielen never left the field and played the third-highest snap share at 92.1%. He should face Mike Hilton for some of the game and that’s another non-worrisome matchup. Hilton played a good bit of slot for the Steelers last year and if the Bengals expand on his role of a 42.3% snap share, I’m not sure how well he holds up. Trae Waynes didn’t play virtually any slot last year and if he’s on Thielen, he allowed a 1.82 FPPT.
Update – Waynes is out for this game and Hilton likely sticks in the slot. Thielen will face Eli Apple, who couldn’t even stick with the Panthers last season. This stack with Jefferson, Thielen, and Cousins really is extremely appealing with a concentrated target share and a dynamite matchup.
TE – Oh look, a punt at the position! It’s becoming apparent that I’m either going a full punt, Pitts, or the elite route at this position. Irv Smith is gone for the season and while the Vikings did trade for Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin is still there and actually produced at the end of last year.
The Bengals were another team that struggled to contain the position last year with almost 15 DK points a game gave up and Smith and Kyle Rudolph combined for around a 22% target share last season. The passing game for the Vikings is going to be so condensed that Conklin is very much in the running for a punt option. I wonder if he even picks up some steam among the industry through the week.
D/ST – I really like the potential for Minny in this spot. The Bengals have not shown they can protect Joe Burrow consistently and the Vikings get Danielle Hunter back after he missed all of 2020. Hunter was third in sacks in 2019 and Burrow has not played more than a handful of snaps after blowing out his knee. They were poor in pressure rate at under 20% last year but they also blitzed only 26.9% of the time. The secondary wouldn’t allow risks through a good portion of the season but more experience now does help.
Update – Linebacker Anthony Barr is out. I’ve cooled on the Vikings defense a little because it just seems very easy to find an extra $300 for the Denver defense this week.
Cash Plays – Cook, Jefferson, Conklin
GPP Plays – Thielen, Cousins, D/ST
QB – I will have a bit of a hard time playing Joe Burrow on this slate. The camp reports have been all over the board and he’s only had a handful of snaps in the preseason after reconstructive knee surgery. It also doesn’t help Burrow that the Vikings will get a pass rusher, Danielle Hunter, back after he missed the entire year in 2020. The Cincinnati offensive line allowed Burrow to be pressured over 24% of the time and Burrow struggled mightily with a 25% completion rate under pressure. Burrow was also just 27th in FPPD (fantasy points per dropback), 26th in yards per attempt, and 22nd in air yards per game. That makes sense that if you can’t really protect the QB, he can’t let downfield routes develop. They did bring in Riley Reiff to play tackle but i’s stretch to say that solves everything. Minnesota finished 14th in DVOA against the pass last year without their best pass rusher and that makes Burrow deep GPP only for me.
RB – There are not many more polarizing players than Joe Mixon in the fantasy community. Some have sworn him off totally, others think he will smash this season. I’m somewhat in-between but he was averaging around 24 touches per game and that’s the kind of volume we love. Minnesota also had their struggles against the run last season, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards and finishing 30th in DVOA against the run. Mixon was ninth in snap share at 66% and he’s going to get opportunities as long as he’s on the field. He’s not super pricey and could fly under the radar here.
Update – He may not be near as under the radar as I thought. It seems the industry is happier to play him than I thought, so let’s monitor that through the week. I assumed with how some folks seemed to hate him, he’d not be super popular.
WR – This could be the wrong way to approach it, but Ja’Marr Chase is out of my pool until he has some sort of flash. I’m not down on him long-term, but he’s shaking off not playing football for a long period of time and that’s tougher to get behind. I’m focused on Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and the salary for Higgins is exceptionally low. The fact Higgins finished 67/908/6 with some of the quarterbacks the Bengals trotted out last year is incredible. He also ranks 16th in unrealized air yards, meaning there were a lot of plays left on the table last year. He’ll improve on his 74.5% snap rate this year and the Bashaud Breeland matchup works out as well. I grant you that Breeland played well with Kansas City last year but he did allow an 11.3 YPR last season and Higgins isn’t priced accurately at all in my opinion. He earned 107 targets as it was last year and that was with A.J. Green sucking up 104 targets himself.
Boyd is the quintessential slot receiver, sitting in that formation 76% of the time last year (fourth-most in the NFL). He only had a 21.9% target share but again, AJG is gone and Chase may not be there yet. It did lead Boyd to sit 16th in RZ targets and 20th in receptions last year. Despite only sitting 55th in yards per route, Boyd suffered through only 89 of his 110 targets being deemed catchable. The plan seems to be for Minnesota to put Mackensie Alexander in the slot as he played 54.1% of his snaps there last season. He only allowed 7.4 FPPG (fantasy points per game) which was the third-best in the league. With the volume Cincy is likely to pass, I’m not super worried about the matchup but I definitely prefer Higgins.
TE – C.J. Uzomah is back from injury but I’m struggling to find a reason to play him. The Bengals have three very legitimate receivers (Chase isn’t going to drop passes forever) and Mixon will be involved in the passing game. He did have an 11.7% target share in parts of two games but there’s no telling if that would have continued and that was before spending a high pick on Chase. We have better options even in this salary range.
D/ST – The Bengals only got a 19% pressure rate and were dead last in sacks last season. The remade secondary could help, but not enough that I’m willing to play them this week. I don’t see the big-play ability worth the risk.
Cash Plays – Higgins, Cook
GPP Plays Boyd, Chase
QB – This game is interesting because even though the O/U is the same as the Vikings game, I believe there is far more fantasy intrigue in this one. When you play Jalen Hurts, you’re not exactly going just after passing production more than the Konami code of his rushing ability. It’s hard to take anything concrete from his starts last year because the Eagles were a disaster and they have a new coaching staff. However, in the three games Hurts started and finished, he posted 106, 63, and 69 rushing yards and finished as a QB1 (no lower than QB12) every week. That included a boom game against the Cardinals when he was the highest-scoring quarterback on the week. In those games, he threw one touchdown in two of them. It shows just how valuable rushing yards can be. The Falcons did finish ninth in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks and 19th in DVOA against the pass and neglected to bring in any impact-free agents on that side of the ball. If he can improve on a 57.4% catchable pass rate, 64.9% clean completion rate, and a true completion rate of 58.8%, Hurts is going to be a weapon in fantasy. He’s a safe play with some upside to go with it seeing as how Atlanta allowed the most passing yards per game in 2020.
RB – I will be the first to tell you that I am not a Miles Sanders guy. He was only getting about 13 carries per game last season and four targets per game. While 17 potential touches aren’t terrible, he’s not coming cheaply either. Sanders played 12 games last year and was outside the top 15 at his position eight times, which isn’t the best rate for a back that’s $6,500. Atlanta was also surprisingly tough on backs last year, ranking sixth in DVOA against the run and allowing only the second-fewest rushing yards to backs. They were only one of five teams to allow less than 1,200 rushing yards.
Having said all of that, Sanders is still a strong pick. Why? Well, the first aspect is the offensive line is healthy where it was not last season. Secondly, new coach Nick Sirianni is talking about accentuating the strengths of the Hurts/Sanders pair. When they played together last season, Sanders averaged over 100 scrimmage yards and scored three touchdowns. While Sarianni has spoken about keeping Sanders fresh, I don’t think Boston Scott is the new Nyheim Hines, if we’re comparing the situation to Indy. That’s where Sarianni was the OC for the past three seasons and we should expect Sanders to get a healthy workload behind an offensive line that can still play at a high level.
WR – Most of the attention this year will go to Devonta Smith, and that happens when you win the Heisman Trophy and are a very high draft pick. What he lacks in size he makes up for in speed and route-running ability. He could see some of A.J. Terrell who had a rough rookie year last season. He can run with Smith as they both were at a 4.4-second 40-yard dash, but Terrell allowed 1.87 FPPT and a 108.4 passer rating. No corner allowed more yards than his 1,039 and Smith isn’t the only receiver with upside.
Figuring out who will get more run between Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins is going to be important. Reagor should have the leg up but Watkins has impressed all through the preseason. With two tight ends to utilize, I’m not sure how often Philly will be in 11 personnel this year but for now, I’d assume Reagor is getting the first crack opposite Smith. He’s still just 22 years old and Philly spent a first-round pick on him. What he does have going for him is he was 97th in catchable targets last year, just 37 targets. There were almost 500 air yards left unrealized and he could face corner Kendall Sheffield. That player gave up a 1.79 FPPT across 82 targets last year. We could see this one shootout in the dome and the entire passing game tree is very cheap on the Philly side.
TE – The Eagles played two tight ends at one of the highest rates in football last season at 35%, meaning they could do it again since Zach Ertz was not traded and Dallas Goedert is still there. I think he’s in a no man’s land for salary and I’m not really going to play him, but don’t be shocked by Ertz having a strong game here. This offense is going to be different than last season but Ertz still had the highest target share at 18.9% and he and the organization have mended fences. He was poor last year but only 58% of his targets were catchable, 40th at the tight end position. It’s not something that’s just going to transfer, but it should be noted Atlanta gave up 91 receptions to tight ends last year, tied for the second-most. Geodert had a 21.4% share of the RZ targets and is in play, but I’d rather go with the cheaper player.
D/ST – The defense might go overlooked, but there are times where defenses can be useful in shootout scripts because of sacks and turnovers. That is an area that Philly can do some damage as they ranked second in pressure rate last year and sacked the quarterback 49 times, third-most. They only generated 19 turnovers but if they can constantly harass Ryan, the Falcons offense can go off the rails.
Update – Starting strong safety Rodney McLeod is out, which only raises the potential for the Falcons pass catchers like Ridley and Pitts.
Cash Plays – Hurts, Sanders
GPP Plays – Ertz, Smith, Reagor, D/ST
QB – If this game does shoot out, Matt Ryan has some big-time potential as well at a very affordable price. Philly was 24th in DVOA against the pass last season and seemingly has been a pass funnel defense since…well, forever. Ryan is not going to help in the rushing department like Hurts will but he finished first in air yards, fourth in passing yards, and first in attempts last year. That is sure to dial back a little bit this season with a new coach in Arthur Smith, formerly of Tennessee. Sure, Coach Smith doesn’t have the luxury of Derrick Henry in the backfield on this team but I’m not banking on Ryan finishing first in passing attempts again this year. The largest obstacle for Ryan is the Philly pass rush. Last season, they were second in generating pressure at 27.9% in spite of being bottom-five in the blitz rate. Ryan was only 19th in pressured completion rate at 40.2% but the Falcons could be in more pass-heavy scripts than they would like this year. Both teams were inside the top-eight in pace last year (it’s worth noting that Philly was 17th in neutral scripts) and Ryan is at a very solid price in the dome.
RB – Figuring out Mike Davis is not going to be an easy task. He was the only show in town with Carolina through a lot of 2020 and he had three straight weeks of top 10 finishes after CMC got hurt. Then things went south, with only two finishes above RB20 in the next 10 games. He prepared a little bit differently for being the starter this offseason, but that’s still a red flag for me. We’re talking four strong games out of 13, not a high ratio. I will grant you that there’s realistically no depth behind him, but that was the case last year as well. Philly was 13th against the run last year in DVOA, which was a small step back for them. They still were inside the top 12 in rushing yards allowed and the eighth-fewest receptions. I’m not a huge believer in the talent so this play isn’t for me and now Wayne Gallman is in the backfield as well.
WR – This will make certain members of the Discord angry, but corner Darius Slay is going to get torn up by Calvin Ridley. Not only is Julio Jones elsewhere now, but Ridley was also a monster already last season. He was second in air yards share at 41.4%, first in total air yards, first in deep targets, second in RZ targets, fourth in receiving yards, ninth in touchdowns, and fourth in FPPG. Any other questions? This man is under $8,000. I’m not trying to say that Slay is a bad corner. He’s just not elite. Slay was targeted 103 times last year. NFL teams don’t go after elite corners like that and Slay allowed 76 receptions and a 104.6 passer rating. He is the third-highest salaried receiver but still feels like a bargain. Safety Anthony Harris is going to help over the top but that’s certainly not a reason to shy away.
I don’t exactly mind Russell Gage, but I think he’s solidly overpriced for being the third option in this passing game. We have a lot of other value receivers to go with that are under $5,000. Granted, PPR is his best format and he had a target share of over 18% but Kyle Pitts should bite into that and the 14 RZ and 10 EZ targets Gage had in 2020. The salary is just too much for me on this slate.
TE – Oh baby, it will be fun to play Kyle Pitts this season. This kid is not yet 21 years old and runs a 4.49 at 6’6″ and 245 pounds. That’s a Madden Create a Player and I could care less if he can block. That’s mostly what Hayden Hurst is for and you do not take Pitts at the fourth overall pick to block. Julio Jones accumulated 25% of the air yards last year and an 18% target share with eight EZ targets. Even if Pitts gets just a majority of that….he’s not priced accurately at $4,500. The linebackers of Philly are going to have their hands absolutely full in this matchup and I won’t be shocked if Pitts is routinely over $6,500 this season.
D/ST – They have a new DC in Dean Pees, but the only time his defenses have done well was in Baltimore when he had a talented roster to work with. That’s not exactly what he has in Atlanta and they only got to the quarterback 29 times. They did manage to hurry the quarterback 10.4% of the time, which was ninth in the league. That could easily backfire with Hurts taking off out of the pocket so I’m not playing the Falcons.
Cash Plays – Ryan, Ridley, Pitts
GPP Plays – Davis
QB – This game stands to be among the most popular on the slate and for good reason. We get a close spread, a high O/U, and both teams were in the top-five in the pace of play altogether and top-three in neutral game scripts. Anytime Kyler Murray is under $8,000 on DK, he feels like an absolute bargain. Kyler is one of the new breeds of quarterbacks that contributes on the ground and through the air, as he finished third in carries among his colleagues, fourth in RZ (red zone) carries, and second in rushing yards among quarterbacks. There may actually be even more rushing upside hidden in those numbers since there was a three-week stretch where he had an injured shoulder and rushed a combined 15 times. Murray combined for 94 total RZ opportunities with passing and rushing attempts and for context, Deshaun Watson led with 85 RZ pass attempts. Tennessee was 30th in DVOA against the pass last season and while they did add to their defensive front, the secondary remains a sharp concern. Kyler is likely my favorite high-end spend at the position.
RB – It’s possible that both Chase Edmonds and James Conner could both pay off the price tags in a shootout. I wonder if they will be more like the Edmonds/Kenyan Drake combo last season when Drake had 239 rushes and 56 of those came inside the red zone. Edmonds only had 97 and 13 which were both third on the team behind Kyler as well. Now, I think that gap closes and both Conner and Edmonds could be looking at 150-ish carries but Conner could still be the RZ back. Edmonds finished seventh in receptions among running backs but Conner is perfectly capable as a receiver as well. Tennessee was 16th in DVOA against the run and there should be plenty of opportunities in this game. I would slightly rather Edmonds, but we truly don’t know what the split is going to be.
WR – I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyler throw it at least 40 times in this one even though he only did it four times last season. The Cardinals secondary is going to have a real issue containing the Titans pass game and Deandre Hopkins is going to continue to be heavily targeted. He saw 160 last year which was second in the league and he was 10th in air yards. Nuk also finished second in receptions and yards so he’s well worth a spend in this game script. Tennessee brought in Janoris Jenkins who is a fine corner, but not one that can slow down Hopkins.
It appears that A.J. Green may well be the second receiver in Arizona and that is a valuable role. Green was third in unrealized air yards last year and only saw a 60.6% rate of catchable passes. The improvement in QB play and pace of this game should help and he’s a very cheap way to get exposure to this game environment. Don’t forget Christian Kirk either as he had a 16.3% target share so even if AJG takes the Larry Fitzgerald of 2020 share at 16.1%, Kirk will still see some volume. I’d likely side with Green, but let’s keep an eye on practice reports through the week.
TE – Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has had zero use for tight ends in his tenure and there is no reason to think that has changed this season.
D/ST – A team facing Julio, AJB, Henry, and Tannehill is not going to be attractive defensively probably all year long. Tennessee only took 25 sacks last year and turned it over 12 times, the second-fewest in the league.
Cash Plays – Kyler, Hopkins
GPP Plays – Edmonds, Conner, AJG
QB – Efficiency, thy name is Ryan Tannehill. Not many players can finish as the QB9 when they rank 18th in attempts and 15th in yards, but Tannehill threw 33 touchdowns and seventh in yards per attempt. There are maybe some hidden yards as Tannehill was ninth in air yards last year but 40th in deep-ball completion rate at 33.3%. A receiver like Julio Jones could help that metric an awful lot. Perhaps the worst thing I can say about Tannehill is his offensive coordinator from last season is gone and that isn’t the most helpful aspect. Tannehill was ninth in points per drop back and while I think it’s hard to mess up an offense that boasts Julio, A.J. Brown, and Derrick Henry, it has to be noted that the offense is different. Tannehill faces a strong pass-rushing duo of Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt, but he was 12th in completion rate under pressure in 2020. Arizona was ninth in both DVOA against the pass and pressure rate last year, but I still like Tannehill in a shootout-style game.
RB – Maybe this is a crazy take, but I’m typically not on Derrick Henry unless it’s a matchup that I simply can’t pass up. The guy is ridiculous and he’s coming off a season where he rushed for over 2,000 yards but he’s also approaching 700 carries across the past two seasons. That’s an awful lot, even for a cyborg-like Henry. He also has a super limited receiving upside with a total of 52 receptions across three seasons. Arizona was 10th in DVOA against the run and theoretically improved their defense this year with Watt. I’m not here to tell you that Henry is a terrible play, but I do think we can spend this high salary a bit more wisely. This game could be one that slants towards the passing game and a player like Alvin Kamara sitting there for $200 less with absurd reception potential is tough to pass up.
WR – The duo of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones should be able to get open at will in this game. The corners are Tay Gowan and Byron Murphy Jr. and they are flat out overmatched. Brown was the WR6 in points per game and his metrics are frightening. Consider he produced that despite ranking 28th in snap share, 58th in routes run, 29th in RZ targets, 31st in air yards, 27th in receptions, and just 14th in receiving yards. That’s absolutely crazy and Julio is easily the best receiver he’s ever played with. If some of the metrics go up for Brown, the sky is the limit. The metrics for Julio aren’t as important because he was injured so much last season. As long as he’s healthy, neither of those corners has anything for Julio. Let’s not forget, Tennessee lost almost 30% of their target share from 2020 in Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries. Even if they just crawl up to average in pass attempts from 30th last year, both of these receivers can have big games.
TE – Anthony Firkser has had some attention in the draft season because Jonnu Smith moved on to New England and some folks are buying the narrative that Arizona can’t defend the tight end. That was very true in 2019 when they were dead last against the position. However, in 2018 and 2020, they were inside the top six. There could be a valuable role if he just took the Jonnu Smith role since Smith had a 30.9% RZ share and 15.5% for the target share. However, last year’s team did not have Julio on it and they have a new OC. This isn’t a spot where the stats are sure to transfer over. I’m not particularly interested myself.
D/ST – Certainly not, with Arizona taking under 30 sacks last year and having playmakers at every level. Neither defense in this game has much reason to be played.
Cash Plays – Tannehill, AJB, Julio
GPP Plays – Henry
QB – I don’t think Trevor Lawerence is some spectacular value or anything like that, but playing against this Houston defense in your first game isn’t the worst draw. They were 29th in DVOA against the pass last season allowed the 10th most passing yards. They are in full tank mode so we shouldn’t expect much different this year. We obviously don’t have a lot to go off for Lawerence at the NFL level past the preseason, but the last time we saw him on the field he torched the Cowboys for 139 yards and two scores. There is no player to worry about behind him with Gardner Minshew being dealt to Philly, so Lawerence is going to be the man (as he always was going to be). This play is mostly picking on the Texans and believing in the talent that Lawerence has shown the past three seasons at Clemson.
RB – When I first saw that rookie Travis Etienne was injured and out for the year, I assumed James Robinson was going to be the chalk. That may well still be the case but J-Rob is at a fair price as opposed to super cheap. Last year saw him sit sixth in snap share, carries, and ninth in receptions. He was the only player in the Jacksonville backfield, basically. There is some perception that will be the case again, but I’m going to throw some cold water on that. The new coaching staff with Urban Meyer saw fit to spend a first-round pick on Etienne, despite all the other needs. Carlos Hyde was also brought in and I suspect he might share more work than most think. Through 66 snaps with Lawrence this preseason, Robinson has 33 snaps and Hyde has 28. Houston was 30th in DVOA against the run last year and surrendered the most rushing yards in the league. This is a strong matchup especially now that Jacksonville has a real quarterback at the helm, but I don’t know if J-Rob sees 20-22 touches. You could argue for Hyde in deep GPP at the minimum price for a running back.
WR – Just go ahead and pencil in Marvin Jones this week in the lineup This game is one between two bad defenses and could wind up high scoring, and Jones is going to be a security blanket for Lawerence. He played 89.6% of the snaps last year for Detroit, seventh-most in the NFL. Jones was also 16th in RZ targets and you can say what you want about Lawerence in his first game – he is better than the Detroit quarterbacks in 2020. Jones was at least 26th in FPPG, receptions, and yards last year. Every Houston corner gave up at least a 1.55 FPPT last year so regardless of who Jones has, he’s going to get it done. The salary does not make sense.
One of the reasons why I like Jones so much is because I think both D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault are sort of pricey. We honestly don’t know exactly how this offense will prioritize targets and I have very little trust in Urban Meyer and his staff. Jones having production behind him with trash quarterbacks and coming in $2,200 cheaper than Chark seems like a slam dunk. If there’s a player to pair up with Jones in a double stack (or potentially get off the chalk with Jones), it could well be Chark. He was 19th in air yards last year, fifth in deep targets with 29 and ninth in unrealized air yards. Chark only saw a 71% catchable rate, which was 90th in the league. Lawrence should help with those metrics and Chark does bring 4.3 speed. All it would take is one big play for him and Shenault should be working in the slot, which could rack up 5/50 with no real opposition.
TE – There is not a tight end of fantasy relevance on the Jaguars at this point. With three receivers and running backs getting targets, there’s not a case to be made for a play here.
D/ST – No thank you even though the Houston offense will likely not be good. The Jaguars are in the middle of an overhaul and finished with the fifth-lowest pressure rate last year. They only had 18 sacks which were the second-fewest and generated just 17 turnovers.
Cash Plays – Robinson, Jones Jr.
GPP Plays – Lawerence, Chark, Hyde
QB – Whoooo boy are the Texans going to be difficult to write about most of the way. Tyrod Taylor only had 30 attempts last season before a freak medical accident forced rookie Justin Herbert into the lineup on short notice. Taylor accomplished very little in his lone game last year on a much more talented offense. The best argument you can make is the game script, but if the Jags don’t get out ahead in this one it’s pretty difficult to see the upside for Taylor. We want quarterbacks that have a ton of upside, not just hitting a 2.5x on their salary. Even a player like Jameis Winston for $100 cheaper is much more appealing in my eyes.
RB – This is a super long article and I appreciate everyone reading so I’m going to do something I won’t normally do. Just say no to Texans’ running backs. Their head coach has openly said it’s an RBBC (running back by committee) with four players potentially involved. One of Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and maybe even Rex Burkhead could go for 3x. Having said that, there are zero reasons to chase this split in that offense. Michael did mean Mark Ingram, as he corrected himself in another tweet.
WR – The quality of quarterback play is certainly in question, but Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are in really interesting spots and are not expensive at all. Let’s talk about Cooks first since he is the clear alpha in the passing game and finished last year 18th in targets and 20th in target share. He had one of the quietest 81/1,150/6 seasons in memory and was the WR17 in PPG. The game scripts are likely to go negative most of the year for Houston, this week possibly included. Corner C.J. Henderson was rumored to be on the trade block already but he only allowed 36 receptions last year in an 80.3% snap share. Cooks won’t have a speed advantage as Henderson matches his 4.3 40-yard speed. He’s totally fine but I don’t think I’m going here unless it’s a game stack.
I actually prefer Collins as he should be the WR2 in this offense. This is a Stix Special has Nico has been his dude the entire offseason and we know to listen to Stix. The Texans cut Keke Coutee last week and that leaves Cooks, Collins, and Chris Conley as the top three receivers. Houston spent a top-100 pick on him in this past draft and the loss of Will Fuller, Coutee, and Randall Cobb combined for 57% of the air yards share and almost 50% of the target share. Collins just isn’t nearly expensive enough, regardless of where he’s going to line up and which corner he’s facing.
TE – Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I can actually see Jordan Akins being a dart play. Taylor has liked his tight ends throughout his career and there are a ton of 2020 targets no longer on the team (270, to be exact). Akins was at an 11.8% target share last year as it was and if they have to take to the air a lot, Cooks and Nico won’t get every target available. He’s far from a sure thing but he’s the type of stealth play that could be a difference-maker in GPP. Touchdowns are notoriously tricky to project year to year, but Jacksonville gave up 13 last year and that was the second-most. Even some improvement would mean 8-9 scores.
D/ST – They’re taking on a rookie quarterback and I couldn’t be less interested in a defense totally devoid of talent.
Cash Plays – Collins, Cooks
GPP Plays – Akins
QB – There are going to be weeks that I want to play Ben Roethlisberger, but this week is not likely to be one of them. The dislike for Big Ben has gone too far in seasonal drafting since he still threw 33 touchdowns and was 12th in points per game but the salary isn’t super low and the Bills were 12th in DVOA against the pass last season. Oh, by the way, the Bills spent their first two picks on pass rushers and get back Star Lotulelei after he sat out 2020. Big Ben was volume-dependent last season as he finished a terrible 39th in FPPD (fantasy points per dropback), 48th in deep-ball completion rate, and 32nd in clean completion rate. According to Ben, his lack of arm strength was not helped by doing so much rehab coming into the 2020 season. It does make sense, but I’m not willing to play him in Buffalo in this scenario. Buffalo blitzed at the eighth-highest rate last year and that could be a large issue for a re-made offensive line.
Update – Lotulelei is out with a calf injury, which does raise the passing game just a bit and helps out Najee Harris.
RB – It makes me impossibly sad to likely pass on Najee Harris in Week 1. To put it out there, I’m extremely high on the young man out of Alabama as I think he’s going to get a monster workload in this offense. Health permitting, I think we’re looking at over 300 carries and at least 45-50 receptions. However, I think the Steelers could struggle in this game with the new offensive line against the Buffalo defense, as stated in the Big Ben portion. The Bills were top 12 in DVOA against the run and 17th in rushing yards allowed. They weren’t exactly dominant but I’m not sure just how long the Steelers stay in this one to continue running the ball. They were not vulnerable through the air against running backs (although I think Najee is a mismatch out of the backfield) and it’s a high salary to pay if you’re not sure on the rushing yards. Get back to me next week against the Raiders at home because I’m likely smashing that button.
WR – Diontae Johnson is the most expensive Steelers receiver and maybe that’s exactly what he should be.
Big Ben absolutely loves Johnson and he finished sixth in the NFL in targets. He could actually avoid Tre White as the projected matchup could have him see Levi Wallace instead. I sort of hesitate with that since Pittsburgh has a new OC and they’re using motion more in the preseason. Wallace was strong last season across 76 targets as he only allowed an 81.2 passer rating and 1.52 FPPT, 23rd in the league. I think the Steelers trail a lot in this one so the matchup doesn’t give me much pause.
Everyone seems to be enamored with Chase Claypool, and that makes plenty of sense. His combo of speed and size are rare, but if he doesn’t play more than 63% of the snaps than he did in 2020, that’s going to be an issue. Pittsburgh didn’t run as many three-receiver sets as last year in the preseason which could be a small issue. They were at 75% last season and we could see them drop from that rate. I’d be surprised if Johnson or JuJu Smith-Schuster left the field very often. Claypool had a 16.7% target share last year while Johnson was at 22.9% and JuJu was at 19.6%. Pittsburgh values the blocking JuJu brings (and they should).
In this game, I think all three are viable but it is something we need to keep an eye on. Claypool would see the most of White at cornerback, but he’s a large mismatch as far as size. White also wasn’t as strong last year, ranking 67th last year in FPPT and he allowed a 64% catch rate. If JuJu plays from the slot as he did for most of last year, Taron Johnson is the matchup and he ranked 12th in FPPT and sixth in FPPG. I have them ranked Johnson, Claypool, then JuJu.
TE – This is a deep GPP special ONLY, but I’m actually more interested in rookie Pat Freiermuth in this setting. With the Steelers coming into the game as heavy underdogs, we can project they will have to pass a good deal. The rookie out of Penn State checks in at 6’5″ and Big Ben has talked about liking tall targets in the RZ basically his entire career. In the only action we saw from the veteran quarterback in the preseason, he found Freiermuth twice in the end zone for six. At the minimum price, it takes only one score to hit 3x and I think he’s going to play a significant role in the red zone. Eric Ebron is still there between the 20’s and his 91 targets last season are no joke, but it’s hard to project that again. Pittsburgh ideally doesn’t want to throw the ball 41 times a game and Ebron had a 14.9% target share, 15th among tight ends.
D/ST – Seeing as how I’m on record saying they’re going to get steamrolled, I will not look twice at them this week. They were an elite defense last year by about every metric we could look at but a lot has changed and the matchup is horrendous.
Cash Plays – Diontae
GPP Plays – Claypool, JuJu, Harris, Freiermuth
QB – Josh Allen has officially secured the bag this offseason, and good for him. If Kyler comes in as chalky, Allen could be a big-time pivot. Yes, Pittsburgh was one of the best defenses in football in 2020 …but this is not the same defense. They lost Bud Dupree, Steve Nelson, and Mike Hilton to start. Stalwarts Stephon Tuitt and T.J. Watt have yet to play or even practice as of Monday, August 30th. (Tuitt has since been placed on IR)
When these teams tangled last year, Allen was QB12 and he only had 28 rushing yards. The matchup is not that scary since Allen finished last season fifth in pass yards, sixth in attempts, fourth in RZ pass attempts (123 total opportunities), and 11th in FPPD. His 43% completion rate under pressure was just 24th, but the Pittsburgh defense could be severely hampered in that aspect in Week 1. Even if Allen sees a slight downtick in rushing attempts from his 102 last season, he’s going to still run a bit and his receiving corps is excellent. Buffalo has also given us hints to exactly what kind of offense they’re going to run –
RB – I may have questions about the Steelers’ defense, but I think they will still be above average in stopping the run. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are sharing this backfield and realistically, if Allen’s role doesn’t change, they’re only going to get a small share of RZ work. Last year, Allen had 24 carries, Moss had 28, and Singletary had 20. Allen had the lead closer to the goal line as well, so there seems to be a ceiling on these backs if things continue. That could be up in the air but I suspect that OC Brian Daboll attacks this defense through the air. Last year, Allen had 43 attempts against the Steelers which was his third-most of the season. With a firmly split backfield, a tougher matchup, and potentially limited touchdown opportunity, we can find better plays.
WR – I absolutely love Stefon Diggs this week. People may shy away with the red 9th next to his name for the matchup but I do not care. Diggs led the league in targets, receptions, and yards last year and we already talked about some of the issues for the Pittsburgh defense. Their secondary is far worse than it was last season, with Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick the lone strong players. I give credit to Haden that he finished last year in the top 25 in FPPT, FPPG, passer rating allowed, and catch rate allowed. He is still going to have his hands full and at age 32, I’m not sure how much longer he can play at this level.
Buffalo played 11 personnel with three receivers 71% of the time last year, which means that Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley should see the field an awful lot. Some combo of Cameron Sutton, Justin Layne, and James Pierre is going to be charged with keeping them contained. None of these players logged a snap rate over 38% last year and this is a distinct advantage for Buffalo. If they spread the field out and the Steelers can’t generate a pass rush, this secondary will get torched.
Update 1 – Emmanuel Sanders is questionable and if he’s out, we can bump up Beasley and especially Gabe Davis. Beasley wouldn’t move out of the slot so Davis would be on the boundary opposite of Haden quite often.
Update 2 – The Steelers did swing a trade to acquire corner Ahkello Witherspoon but he also played under 40% of snaps last year. It’s a steep learning curve to play in one week and the fact Seattle traded him with the corners they have…. shouldn’t scare anyone away from Buffalo receivers.
TE – I’m not looking this way since I’m far more interested in the receivers. Dawson Knox had a target share of just 9.4% last year and the Bills added Sanders to the receiving corps. Even if Manny Sanders just fills the 2020 John Brown role, Knox isn’t anything special. There are better options that are cheaper in my eyes.
D/ST – I think the offseason hate for Pittsburgh has gone a little far with Buffalo potentially being the chalk defense. By all means, play them in cash. They only got a 22.2% pressure rate and even with additional pass rushers added in the draft, Pittsburgh accentuates getting the ball out fast. They were the only team to not allow more than 20 sacks last year and only turned the ball over 18 times. Buffalo was excellent in turning the ball over at 26 but I’m not sure there’s a big ceiling.
Cash Plays – Allen, Diggs, D/ST
GPP Plays – Sanders, Beasley, Davis
QB – Jimmy Garoppolo will draw the start, but it’s only a matter of time before Trey Lance takes over. That might not happen full-time in this game, but the 49ers are already talking about specific packages for Lance. The highest upside spot for his playmaking ability is in the RZ, and that could really cap Jimmy G’s upside. Think of it like when Taysom Hill came in for the Saints and vultured a Drew Brees touchdown. San Fran shouldn’t have to keep their foot on the gas pedal in this game so I’m going to limit my exposure to this team, with one major exception.
RB – Is it too early to say that I really like Raheem Mostert on this slate? Yes, the 49ers drafted Trey Sermon and I expect this to be the typical Kyle Shanahan-style rotation at some point. What I don’t expect is that to happen this week because the 49ers cut Wayne Gallman and Jeff Wilson is on the PUP list. Their running backs heading into this game will be Mostert, Sermon, fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell, and Jamycal Hasty. Hasty had all of 39 carries last season so I fully expect Mostert to get the majority of work as one of the biggest favorites on the slate. He’s got 4.4 speed and the 49ers rattled off almost 120 rushing yards a game last year despite the litany of injuries on the offensive side. Detroit was bottom-five in DVOA against the run and allowed the fifth-most rushing yards. Mostert is way. Too. Cheap. He may only get 12-14 touches but that will be enough to carry value in my eyes.
WR – The passing game is somewhat difficult to project but we assume Brandon Aiyuk will have the most valuable role in the receiving corps. He was 16th in snaps share and earned 96 targets as a rookie, converting for 60/748/7. He only had a 72.9% catchable rate and to say the quarterback play was mostly poor is being generous. It’s duly noted that George Kittle missed a lot of time last season, but Aiyuk’s 14 RZ targets were inside the top 16 across all receivers. He should face Amani Oruwariye for a good portion of the game and he allowed 2.00 FPPT and the second-most yards at 1,015. The largest reason Aiyuk could flop is if the game script calls for minimal passing attempts.
Deebo Samuel played in just seven games with a 17.6% target share and the largest knock on him was the absolute lack of air yards. He had 44 targets with a total of 97 air yards. The aDOT was 2.6 yards, 109th in the league. As the third fiddle in the passing game (we think), he would have to see a change in role to make him extremely viable. Since he rarely went into the slot, corner Jeff Okudah will be working against him. Okudah was a rookie last year and allowed a 101.7 passer rating on a 56.7% snap share. I’ll take the cheaper Aiyuk. I strongly doubt this is the game where all three passing weapons hit value, leaving Deebo on the outside looking in.
TE – This is absolutely not a shot at George Kittle, but I don’t think he’s worth the salary on this slate. He’s one of my favorite players to watch because he has zero miedo (zero fear, Kittle is a big Pentagon Jr. fan of AEW fame) and plays like his hair is on fire. When he was active last year, Kittle had a 24% target share and a 26% share of the air yards. He was first in yards per route at 2.94, first in points per route, and was third in points per game. My only slight fear is how much they need him in this one. If the game stays close, Kittle could smash and is more appealing with no Darren Waller or Mark Andrews on the slate. However, I’m just going to find the money for other options this week.
D/ST – Out of general principle, I don’t like paying up for defense in any given week. There is every reason to think San Francisco improves on their 22.6% pressure rate and 30 sacks, considering the hurry rate was 11.2% and the blitz rate was the 10th highest in the league. They do have a new DC in DeMeco Ryans but he’s worked under Saleh and they get back players they lost to injury last year. Detroit projects to be one of the lowest-scoring offenses in football, so I get it if you go there. I just likely don’t.
Update – Tackle Javon Kinlaw and corner Emmanuel Moseley are both doubtful, which is just one more reason to not pay up for this defense.
Cash Picks – Mostert, Kittle, D/ST
GPP Picks – Aiyuk, Samuel
QB – There is no real reason to play Jared Goff in this game. The matchup is a nightmare since the 49ers were seventh in DVOA against the pass last season and only allowed the ninth-fewest DK points to quarterbacks last year. That was with significant injuries all the way across the board for that defense, including Nick Bosa. His lone weapons of any repute are T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift, and that is not enough to get him in my lineups. Goff was 40th in FPPD last season and that was with a vastly more talented offense around him and a better offensive coach in Sean McVay. I’m simply not interested here and would play Teddy Bridgewater ahead of him.
RB – I suppose you could make an argument for D’Andre Swift through his passing work if the Lions are down for most of this game, but Coach Dan Campbell was speaking about concerns with Swift’s conditioning less than 10 days before the season. That’s not what I want to hear when a back is $6,900 and has Jamaal Williams to share the load with. I’m not sitting here remotely telling you that Willams is as good as Swift, but the Lions will play both. The split is unknown since Swift was banged up through most of camp. San Francisco was 10th in DVOA against the run, a large concern as well.
Swift is a Rorschach test in many ways. One of the most important skills an analyst can have in my eyes is the ability to separate what they think should happen from what the coaches are telling us and putting on the field. Analysts all agree on the talent for Swift and what he brings to the field. I don’t think anyone can deny that. I mean, he chewed up 878 scrimmage yards last year on a 47.5% snap rate and 160 touches. The kid is fantastic. However, some will overlook everything else about the situation but talent cannot be our only factor. We can scream from the mountaintops that Swift should get 20+ touches a game. It doesn’t matter if the coach doesn’t agree, and I won’t pay nearly $7,000 this week in an awful matchup for Swift. There will be other weeks when we will hammer playing Swift.
Update – The Lions will be without tackle Taylor Decker and that hurts the entire offense.
WR – Typically, we’re going to want receivers that are big underdogs because the script would say that team is going to pass a lot. The Lions might be an exception since their corps is Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus….and then a mishmash of three or four other guys. The best bet would likely be rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown but it is guesswork right now. If we’re going after anyone, Williams would likely be the favorite since he is the alpha of the group. Considering all of these players would be no higher than second in the passing tree, I have to say I’m not interested. We have better values than just playing Williams hoping for garbage time production.
TE – It’s interesting to note that San Francisco dominated against tight ends in 2020. They were the only team to allow under 500 yards (the next best was Pittsburgh at 638), they allowed the fewest targets and receptions, and only the second-least touchdowns at four. That’s all fair, but someone has to catch the ball for the Lions and T.J. Hockenson is the leading option. Last year saw him finish fifth in targets, fourth in receptions, third in receiving yards, and the was with only scoring six times. Many think that he’s got another level and I tend to agree, but I’m not convinced this is where I want to test the theory. He’s fine, but that mid-range is just not where I’m living this week.
D/ST – Get used to this, but no. The Lions were dead last in pressure rate last year and had just 12 turnovers forced. I want no part of that against Shanahan and company.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Swift, Hockenson
QB – It’s sort of an odd salary tier for Russell Wilson. In a vacuum, I’d rather just spend a little more and play Josh Allen or Kyler Murray, while also recognizing there are options cheaper with the same upside. Indy was eighth in DVOA against the pass last year and gave up under 18 DK points per game, the 10th best in football. If last year’s trends continue, these two teams will not push the pace of play since they ranked 19th and 23rd. Wilson threw 40 touchdowns last year but was also just 15th in FPPD despite finishing in the top 10 in attempts, yards, air yards, RZ attempts, and deep attempts. What’s interesting is the Colts blitzed the second-fewest times in the league last year and Russ was fifth in clean completion percentage. You can argue that Indy didn’t need to blitz a ton because they still generated a pressure rate over 23%, but Wilson should be able to pick them apart if he has time in the pocket.
RB – On a points per game basis, Chris Carson has typically been a low-end RB1 and he’s not priced like that at all. Seattle is likely going to run the ball a little more than 25.6 times they did last year, so Carson should be around at least 15-17 carries a week. My fear is the Seahawks did keep five backs on the roster, so the caveat on Carson could be the passing work. He averaged almost four targets per game last year but that work could go toward Rashaad Penny or DeeJay Dallas this season. That could leave Carson as a two-down “thunder” back and Indy was top 10 in DVOA against the run while allowing the third-fewest rushing yards. Having players like Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner on your defense tends to help that, leaving Carson outside of my main targets list.
WR – Oh my goodness is this a dynamite spot for D.K. Metcalf. Let’s just talk about the 6’3″, 228-pound receiver who runs a 4.3 40 that is getting covered by either Xavier Rhodes or Rock-Ya Sin. Rhodes is 6’1″ and 210 and used to be able to run a 4.4 while Ya-Sin is giving up three inches, almost 40 pounds, and runs a 4.5 40. Guys, Metcalf is going to trounce these corners. Last year he was second in snap share, air yards, third in deep targets, 10th in RZ targets, sixth in yards, and sixth in unrealized air yards. He had 840 unrealized air yards, which is frankly terrifying. Only 76% of his targets were catchable, which was 60th. If that bumps up, Metcalf could easily go over 1,500 yards (he was at 1,303 last year). The elite tier of the wide receiver position is absolutely loaded this week.
Tyler Lockett was very hit or miss last year but he played the eighth-most slot snaps at 54.4%. That left him at fifth in routes run and he had a 24.6% target share, 15th in the league. Kenny Moore played slot 61.6% of the time last year and was targeted the fifth-most in the league at 112 times. He was honestly very stout with the fifth-best passer rating allowed and the 15th best FPPT at 1.48. Lockett is a player that I don’t actively worry about matchups, but I do prefer Metcalf for a few hundred more in salary. The fact Seattle only kept four receivers on the roster means these top two are not coming off the field.
Update – Kenny Moore is banged up and we’ll have to keep an eye on things through the week. If Moore is out, the double-stack becomes even more intriguing with the number of values we have across the board.
Update 2 – Rhodes is out of this game while Moore is in. Metcalf is going to go scorched Earth on Ya-Sin and I have Metcalf everywhere this week. He actually has taken over Stefon Diggs for my favorite receiver play.
TE – One of the more popular late picks on the draft at tight end is Gerald Everett. Seattle poached him from the division rival Rams and we know he will be atop the depth chart for the Seahawks. I mentioned earlier how Seattle only kept four receivers so Everett stands to get some work in this offense. It should be noted that after Metcalf and Lockett, the only other player with a double-digit target share in the offense was Carson. They had three tight ends split a target share totaling over 20% however and if Everett sits at even a 15% target share, that’s a valuable role. Those three players also accounted for 22 RZ targets, which also is good for Everett heading into the season.
D/ST – I truly don’t mind them as I think they could hold their own against the run and force Wentz to throw a little more. That wouldn’t be ideal for Indy since Wentz has had zero time to get acclimated to the offense. They blitzed at the 11th highest rate and got home 46 times with 22 turnovers forced. If it wasn’t for a couple of options I liked better at a cheaper salary, I could get on board.
Cash Plays – Russ
GPP Plays – Metcalf (I’d play him in cash but Diggs will be the field’s choice), Lockett, Carson, Everett, D/ST
QB – I suppose you can throw Carson Wentz in the mix of cheap plays that theoretically make some sense, but it’s a tough sell for me. He’s coming off an absolutely brutal season laden with turnovers and sacks. Of course, the change in scenery is a significant upgrade both in coaching and offensive line play in front of him. However, Wentz has had almost zero time to practice and no live game reps in a new offense against a defense that did improve as the year went on in 2020. Seattle was 20th in DVOA against the pass but just remember, they were on pace to give up a record amount of passing yards in the early part of the season. 20th is actually somewhat respectable from the hole they dug themselves. Seattle also created pressure over 24% of the time but that could be stalemated by Colt’s O-line. All in all, I don’t see the need or upside here.
RB – The price isn’t going to do you any favors, but Jonathan Taylor is so talented that I would consider him to some extent. It’s not the ideal spot if last year holds up as Seattle was seventh in DVOA against the run and they allowed only the fourth-fewest yards (on the third-fewest attempts). Nyheim Hines still very much will be involved as he had 153 touches last year and in honesty, that’s one of the biggest arguments against spending this much on JT. Every other back that is priced at least $8,000 is the clear-cut guy and while JT is very obviously going to out-touch Hines, you’re paying top dollar. One aspect we absolutely do not need this year is Hines taking 26 RZ rush attempts, five attempts inside the 10, and 12 RZ targets. Hines had 38 (don’t count the RZ and inside the 10 twice) opportunities in the RZ combined and JT had 52. I’m hoping that gap gets larger and Marlon Mack isn’t terribly involved. It’s a deep GPP play in my eyes.
WR – We’re simply not going to get many number one receivers as cheap as Michael Pittman. With the loss of T.Y. Hilton, Pittman has a clear path to be the alpha in the passing game. He was a breakout candidate to some and he only ran 351 routes last season, 70th in the league. All of his metrics are going to increase and we generally see the largest jump in production between the rookie and second year. The Seahawks don’t have a ton of quality corners and Pittman should see plenty of Tre Flowers, who sported a 75.3% catch rate and a 102.3 passer rating.
We can also consider Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal, who will have a larger role. The ball is going to be spread out and even though they only combined for about a 25% target share, Hilton was at 18.6% last year. There’s a good chunk of targets to go around and Campbell has a 4.3 40-yard dash out of the slot. The salary is the same but I slightly prefer Campbell.
Update – Guard Quenton Nelson is questionable for this game and if he’s out, I would only be looking at Pittman, Campbell, and maybe Hines for quick passes in this offense and likely only as a runback for Seattle.
TE – I’m not all that interested in either Jack Doyle or Mo Elie-Cox. They likely still split targets like they and Trey Burton did last year, meaning they all bit into each other’s potential. Burton is gone but the Colts will still be spreading the ball around a lot. We have better options than chasing tight ends that had a target share under 7.7% last season, even with Hilton out.
D/ST – The Colts have Leonard and Buckner, but they only blitzed 17.1% of the time last year, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. You have to give them credit for getting a quarterback hurry 11.1% of the time but if that falters without bringing the blitz, Wilson and the Seahawks receivers will torch them. I don’t exactly see them replicating 25 turnovers but they are cheap enough to consider in deep GPP settings.
Cash Plays – Pittman
GPP Plays – JT, Hines, D/ST
QB – Justin Herbert might be a fairly easy fade this week, but it has nothing to do with the rookie season he put up last year. Herbert was fourth in attempts, 10th in RZ attempts, sixth in yards, and seventh in points per game. Volume certainly helped since his FPPD was only 23rd but some of that can be attributed to finishing 29th in deep-ball completion rate and 17th in clean completion rate. He can improve on all of those and likely throw for more than 31 touchdowns, but Washington’s defense is very likely to be tough again. They were second in DVOA against the pass, generated the fifth-most sacks, and allowed just the third-fewest DK points to quarterbacks. They added Willam Jackson III to their secondary and boast Chase Young, one of the best young defenders in football. I believe we can make smarter plays than going after this defense.
RB – I can’t pound the table for him, but Austin Ekeler is one of my favorite backs in the league. It’s not a great matchup on paper as Washington is a stout defense, gave up just 61 receptions to running backs last year (fourth-fewest), and ranked 11th in DVOA against the run. Ekeler totaled 933 scrimmage yards in just 10 games last season and that included a game where he was clearly hobbled and gritting it out. In those 10 games, he racked up 54 receptions which were fifth among running backs and that is such a valuable skill set on DK since it is full PPR. He’s going to touch the ball 16-18 times a game but 5-6 of those are going to be receptions, raising his floor. He won’t be a huge factor on the goal line with just 17 RZ rush attempts last year but his receiving chops make up for that. He’s a super interesting pivot from Aaron Jones of the Packers, who we’ll talk about.
Update – I’m not going o mess with Ekeler, regardless if he plays. With hamstring injuries, he can attempt to play and tweak it further after a touch or two and be done for the day. With the tougher matchup looming, he’s easy to not force.
WR – Let’s start with the fact that this is not the best matchup the Chargers will get this year. Duly noted. Now let’s talk about the disrespect of Keenan Allen being priced under $7,000. Listen, Washington is going to be tough on receivers. They gave up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position last year. Washington also cut Jimmy Moreland and let Ronald Darby walk from the secondary, but signed William Jackson to fill the void, and the Jackson/Kendall Fuller combo at cornerback is stout. Allen moves around as he split between the slot and boundary almost evenly at 50% each. He also enjoyed the third-highest target rate on the routes he ran at 29.6%. One of the reasons I think he still gets fed even in this spot is he was only 58th in deep targets and 34th in air yards. With the vicious Washington pass rush, Herbert getting the ball out fast is imperative (even with a vastly improved O-line). Allen and Ekeler are going to both see a lot of volume, especially this week.
Since I’ve said that part, I’m not a huge fan of Mike Williams and a secondary player like rookie Joshua Palmer. I will have exposure to both during certain games and it was super interesting to hear Ekeler call attention to Palmer being a fantasy sleeper on a recent podcast. For those unaware, Ekeler is very into fantasy football so he gets it. I just don’t love the matchup and with Allen sitting at a bargain price, that would be the play in my eyes.
TE – The more recognizable name is Jared Cook, but I’ll pass on the veteran in favor of Donald Parham. He’s still just 24 years old and a monster of a man at 6’8″, 240 pounds. He has taken a ton of snaps with the first team all camp and OC Joe Lombardi has been impressed with his blocking, which will keep him on the field when it matters most. On just 10 receptions last year, he scored three times. If the deep ball is tough to find for the Chargers in this game, Parham could spend it working the intermediate portion of the field and pay off heavily.
D/ST – There is always a chance Fitzpatrick goes full FitzTragic and has multiple turnovers. The argument can be made for a GPP play since the Vikings could be popular and we haven’t gotten to my favorite choice. The 27 sacks last year were the eighth-fewest and the 19 turnovers were tied for the seventh-fewest. Past that, I don’t think we have a lot of reasons to go here.
Cash Plays – Ekeler, Allen
GPP Plays – Parham
QB – The price on Ryan Fitzpatrick is awfully tempting, to be honest. Right off the bat, receiver Terry McLaurin is better than any receiver he worked with in Miami last season. While he only played a partial season, he hit on the deep ball 56% of the time, seventh in the league. Scott Turner is the OC and in honesty, it’s hard to tell what this offense is going to be. Last year he had an absolute carousel at the quarterback position and FitzMagic came over from Miami, so we’re largely starting from scratch. What we do know is Fitzpatrick is willing to chuck no matter what. The Chargers were 17th in DVOA against the pass last year, blitzed at the lowest rate in the league, and had under 30 sacks. It’s not hard to see Fitzpatrick go for 20 DK here. The Chargers elected to overhaul their offensive line in free agency, meaning the defense is mostly relying on Joey Boas and Derwin James to be healthy and make the difference this year. Those are two great players but I don’t fear the defense as a whole.
RB – All aboard the Antonio Gibson RB1 train! He’s under $6,000 and even though his matchup is in the red on DK, that might be deceiving. The Chargers were 26th in DVOA against the run and allowed over 1,500 rushing yards to go along with 91 receptions to the backs (seventh-most). LA looked good against backs because they only allowed a total of 13 touchdowns to the position. That’s not a stat we can expect to repeat from year to year. Gibson and J.D. McKissic are the main cogs in this backfield and since Peyton Barber was cut, that opens up more goal-line work for Gibson. Last season, Barber had eight carries inside the 10 and 16 total attempts in the RZ. I don’t have reason to think McKissic is more involved in that area of the field as his role was the passing downs back in 2020. Now, I think Gibson earns more than an 8.9% target share this year so McKissic should come down from 19.2%. The bottom line is Gibson was 16th in FPPO (fantasy points per opportunity) in his rookie year transitioning to a full-time running back. The ceiling is sky-high and the price does not really reflect it.
WR – The Chargers were strong against receivers last year to be sure and that was without safety Derwin James. He’s back and healthy, but they have seen turnover at the cornerback position. Casey Hayward and Desmond King have both moved on, leaving the top two corners as Michael Davis and Chris Harris. Receiver Terry McLaurin is underpriced just like Keenan Allen and his 2020 season is slightly misleading. After Alex Smith took over at quarterback, Scary Terry only exceeded 90 air yards in a game twice as opposed to six of seven games before Smith played. Fitzmagic is going to reverse that trend and Washington could really hit the ground running on offense this year. McLaurin was a top-20 receiver with only four touchdowns and finishing outside the top-10 in receptions and yards. He’s still got a couple of levels to go as far as fantasy production.
I’m not that interested in Curtis Samuel and/or Dyami Brown for this week. Samuel hasn’t played all preseason and is just starting to practice this week. Brown is a rookie and is likely behind Adam Humphries to start the year, at least. Now, if Samuel sits this week we can revisit this but for now, I’m looking at McLaurin and nobody else from this receiving corps.
Update – Samuel has now hit the IR and even with the opening, I’m not sure I’d play Brown or Humphries in anything other than deeper GPP and MME formats. I think it just funnels more work to McLaurin, Thomas, and even Gibson. Brown is certainly the more explosive option but we don’t have a locked in role like we have with some other options this week.
TE – It was a banner season for Logan Thomas last year, finishing first in routes run and snaps share. That covered the fact he wasn’t super efficient with the 26th best points per route and 25th ranked points per target. Only two other tight ends had more than his 72 receptions, but now Washington has added Samuel to the mix. My biggest concern is Derwin James, who is excellent as a cover safety when he’s healthy. Way back in his rookie year of 2018, he was a big part of the reason the Chargers only gave up five touchdowns and just 74 receptions on 121 targets to the position. I’m not super interested in Thomas for this slate.
D/ST – They’re a fantastic unit overall with 23 turnovers forced, 47 sacks, they ranked third in total DVOA, and generated a pressure rate of almost 26%. The talent on the Chargers side is equal to the task though and I can see the game going a little low-scoring, but not totally relevant for fantasy scoring.
Cash Plays – Gibson, McLaurin
GPP Plays – Fitzpatrick
QB – This entire game is basically just throwing a lot of 2020 out the window. New York bottomed out and took Zach Wilson with the second pick in the draft and the rookie has looked the part through the preseason, mostly. He’s flashed his ability to make any throw you can want in the NFL but to quote Stix in the Discord chat – do we need to go with Wilson on the road in his first start? I can’t build a super compelling case for that. The Jets improved the offense as a whole with additions to the line and receiving corps but the range of outcomes for Wilson is pretty wide. Carolina was 23rd in DVOA against the pass last season but drafted Jaycee Horn and signed A.J. Bouye, which should certainly help improve the secondary.
RB – The hope that Michael Carter would break out in Week 1 is likely dead, leaving us with Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. Carter played into the fourth quarter in the preseason and had virtually zero first-team reps. The play here is Johnson, who has shown ability as a runner and receiver in (at least what we hope) is a functioning offense. It may not really be worth a whole lot, but he was listed as the top back on the Jets depth chart. Johnson only had a 22% snap share and had 253 scrimmage yards on just 70 touches. Carolina was 10th in DVOA against the run and they got hammered by running backs catching passes, giving up the third-most receptions and the 11th most yards. They absolutely overhauled this defense as much as you can in an offseason so I definitely don’t want to project the same finish. However, Johnson appears to be a strong value on the slate if spending down at the position.
WR – Corey Davis was peppered with targets in the preseason and the Jets gave him a solid amount of money to get him to New York. He is clearly the alpha in the passing game and although it’s not comparable with playing in Tennessee last year, Davis was sixth in points per route and 21st in points per target. Number one receivers don’t come super cheap very often and he’ll either face rookie Jaycee Horn or Donte Jackson. The latter allowed a 1.56 FPPT through 80 targets last year but only played about 58% of the snaps, so it could go higher with more playing time.
If Jamison Crowder is out, Elijah Moore would be very interesting as well. The rookie should play outside regardless but I can see Crowder being popular with Wilson. He didn’t play in the preseason so I wouldn’t expect Davis to continue to see around a 50% target share. Crowder was 24th in points per route last year so let’s see how it shakes out through the week.
Update – Oh boy. Not only is Crowder out but Keelan Cole is likely out as well. That leaves Davis and Moore as the clear one and two receivers in this offense and Moore is minimum price. I’m fully in for Moore and would play him in any format, but don’t forget how many targets Davis got in the preseason without Crowder and Moore. It was almost 50% of the throws Wilson made. Play whoever fits in the lineup this week as a runback for Panthers stacks and use one in cash (we’ll see who’s more popular).
TE – When we look for punt tight ends, we’re looking for players that can score a touchdown and catch 3-4 balls for a super low price. It sure looks like minimum-priced Tyler Kroft could fit the bill. Mike LaFleur is the OC for New York and he was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers. He’s been working under Kyle Shanahan for the last three seasons and they produced numbers from that position, many times even when they missed George Kittle. Kroft is about the lone man standing, he should see the field a lot and has a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road. For the price, I think you could do a LOT worse. I could find myself going this route in double tight end lineups, but we’ll get to that.
D/ST – They lost Carl Lawson before the season even started and the secondary is terrible. Robert Saleh is going to need any trick he has up his sleeve to keep this defense competitive and I don’t want to go here.
Cash Plays – Davis
GPP Plays – Johnson, Kroft, Moore/Crowder
QB – Sam Darnold is free of the tyranny that was Adam Gase as a coach and can finally start his NFL career. There’s no way to tell how much of the ineptitude shown by Darnold so far was Case-related or not, but I’m willing to give him a chance with a Joe Brady (OC) offense… at some point. Darnold has much better weapons around him than he ever has before and that’s a huge bonus, but Darnold was 56th in FPPD. That’s not a typo. He was also 33rd in points per game, 51st in deep-ball completion, and 43rd in the catchable pass rate. The only slight redeeming factor was he was seventh in clean completion rate. The Jets were 28th in DVOA against the pass but they had a doofus at defensive coordinator and new coach Robert Saleh was an excellent defensive mind. I’ll pass here outside of a game stack, but remain intrigued for later in the season.
RB – It’s Christian McCaffrey. Do we need to discuss this much further? He is the ultimate fantasy play every single week when he’s healthy and he’s under $10,000. I expect him to be chalky since there are so many values in Week 1 and would strongly suggest playing him in cash. In just three games last season, he had 17 receptions and six touchdowns with a snap share over 75% to lead running backs. You can always talk about different plays in GPP, but he’s the safest play on the board when he’s healthy.
WR – If Darnold can play passable quarterback, D.J. Moore could have a field day in this game. Yes, Robby Anderson is there and they both had a target share of over 24%, but they both had a target share over 24%. I think that drops a little bit because they lost Curtis Samuel but CMC is back and will command over 100 targets. Moore was eighth in unrealized air yards and still managed to finish ninth in receiving yards. Moore was 12th in yards per route and he should be able to torch Bryce Hall who surrendered a 1.80 FPPT last year and a 102.2 passer rating.
Carolina ran 11 personnel 57% of the time last year, which means both Anderson and rookie Terrace Marshall will see the field a bunch. Anderson outpaced Moore in receptions last year and had a 2.00 yards per route rate so both players are dangerous. The Jets corners are among the worst in the league and the Panthers have repeatedly said he’s going to have a significant role. He was extremely impressive in the preseason and bring 4.45 speed with an impressive frame. At stone minimum against a terrible secondary, Marshall is an excellent gamble to load up elsewhere.
TE – You could twist my arm and punt with the other starting tight end in this game, Dan Arnold. Carolina signed him in the offseason and he showed some chemistry with Darnold during the preseason. The largest argument against him is he would be fifth for targets after Moore, Anderson, Marshall, and of course CMC. Last year saw all tight ends combine for a 7.8% target share in this offense. New York stands to be very poor in the secondary again this year and allowed the most touchdowns and yards to tight ends last year. I would prefer Kroft, but Darnold could easily clip 10 points if he finds the paint.
D/ST – The Panthers continue to evolve on that side of the ball and got pressure 22.4% of the time last year while creating 22 turnovers. They do get a rookie quarterback on the road in his first start, which is somewhat appealing. I’d be way more inclined to take a chance if they weren’t $3,600.
Cash Plays – CMC, Moore
GPP Plays – Anderson, Marshall, Darnold
QB – As far as the talent around him, Teddy Bridgewater has some definite playmakers. He’s not the most inspiring player himself but he’s under $5,000 and that has to get our attention to some degree. There’s not a lot to love from last year as far as the metrics go, but he is in a new offense. Teddy B had a true completion rate of 75.9% last season, fourth in the league. He didn’t push the ball downfield a lot at just 13th in yards per attempt and he was 31st in FPPD. However, Bridgewater also threw just 15 touchdowns and that was a 3% TD rate, the lowest of his career. In 2019 with the Saints, he had a 4.6% rate and the Giants were 22nd in DVOA against the pass last year. He’s one of the cheaper options on the board for this week.
RB – I’m going to be somewhat tempted to play Javonte Williams at minimum price.
Understand, that is awfully risky. It was just odd to see the Broncos sit Williams and feature Melvin Gordon in the final preseason game. It’s typically the reverse of that but unless we get explicitly told Williams is the starter, playing him may not be prudent for Week 1. Both players almost have to see some work because they released Royce Freeman and have very little at running back after the Gordon and Williams pair. In 2020, Gordon was 11th in snap share, ninth in carries, and 25th in targets but we can’t project that style of workload again, obviously. The Giants were 15th in DVOA against the run and it’s just the absolute mystery here that has me not that interested. Gibson, Mostert, and even Mike Davis have more certainty for just a few hundred more in salary.
WR – The options here are certainly affordable and I’m a big Jerry Jeudy fan in general. The rookie was sixth in air yards in 2020, second in unrealized air yards, and seventh in deep targets. Perhaps Bridgewater isn’t the best quarterback to solve all of those issues, but 13th in yards per attempt isn’t a deal-breaker. The bottom line is Jeudy was 106th in catchable target rate last year, and Bridgewater is going to improve on that. Jeudy could also see Adoree’ Jackson as opposed to James Bradberry as far as cornerback matchup. He’s extremely cheap for this slate.
If Jeudy sees Jackson, Courtland Sutton will likely see Bradberry and he only allowed a 10.1 YPR, ninth-best in the NFL. The 1.66 FPPT isn’t that bad considering he was targeted over 100 times. Bradberry isn’t a corner I think we need to totally avoid, but Jeudy would have the better matchup through a lot of the game and is cheaper. If you’re playing a lot of lineups, you can throw a dart or two with K.J. Hamler. Denver played 11 personnel 66% of the time and Hamler was in the slot 60% of the time. He can burn and with all receiving options healthy, it takes one play for him to get loose.
Update – Corner Adoree’ Jackson is questionable and that would just open up Jeudy and Sutton even more.
TE – It’s tough to get a read on Noah Fant since he was hurt through a good part of last year and played hurt more than once. He still finished sixth in targets, seventh in receptions, and sixth in receiving yards. Three touchdowns will hopefully come up but with Sutton back, it is sort of a crowded offense. I’m not loving betting on the ceiling here with everyone healthy at this salary and I’d love to see him run more than the 13th most routes at his own position with just 12 RZ targets.
D/ST – We have arrived at my favorite choice of the slate. Denver added Von Miller back from injury and they STILL generated a 26.2% pressure rate and 42 sacks, the eighth-most in the NFL. They only forced a turnover 16 times but that’s going to change this season and Daniel Jones gives them a great opportunity to get started right. In 27 games, Jones has 45 turnovers. Giddy up!
Update – Pass rusher Bradley Chubb is questionable, but he’s not a deal breaker for me to play this defense.
Cash Plays – Jeudy, D/ST
GPP Plays – Sutton, Fant, Williams, MG3
QB – I have absolutely no interest in Daniel Jones on this slate. Denver was 11th in DVOA against the pass and Jones has been a turnover machine his entire career. The Broncos have an excellent secondary led by safety Justin Simmons while they added Kyle Fuller and Pat Surtain at the corner position. Add that to Bradley Chubb and Von Miller spearheading the pass rush, and Jones is in for a bad time. Denver was seventh I pressure rate last year and Jones was 32nd in catchable pass rate while ranking 53rd in FPPD. No thank you for this play. This is part of the reason that the total is the lowest on the slate.
RB – You’re not going to see me with Saquon Barkley exposure on this slate. He’s likely not going to be full tilt in Week 1 returning from an ACL tear, he’s almost $8,000, and Denver should be stout. They struggled last year defending the run, finishing 25th in DVOA but they also had injuries and other factors. Now that the defense is healthy, we should expect a bounce-back. As talented as Barkley is, there’s no need to pay for him if he’s on a pitch count.
WR – This whole situation is gross. Kenny Golladay hasn’t practiced all preseason with a hamstring issue. If he’s out, perhaps you could point to Sterling Shepard who would be the number one target but he’s not super cheap. Denver could also be one of the better secondaries in football with Kyle Fuller, rookie Patrick Surtain, and Ronald Darby all there. Oh, they also have an excellent safety in Justin Simmons so that unit is well-rounded. Throw in Daniel Jones being the quarterback and this spot is a pretty easy fade in my eyes.
TE – It seems like both Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are set to miss this game, which means we can move on to other situations. Kaden Smith should be the next man up but there are plenty of other choices.
D/ST – Bridgewater doesn’t turn the ball over a ton and I wouldn’t be suckered in by the fact Denver led the league in turnovers last year. It’s a totally different offense.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Shepard
Note – This game will no longer be played in New Orleans so it will be a neutral site game.
QB – We can finally just get into the season with Rodgers after the drama of the offseason and the reigning MVP smashed everything in sight last year. He was seventh in RZ attempts, passing yards, fourth in yards per attempt, and led the league in passing touchdowns. Therein lies the rub because he’s not super likely to throw 48 touchdowns again. His TD rate was 9.1% last year and the previous two seasons it was 4.6% and 4.2%. I’m not a math major, but the combined total is 8.8% so it almost has to come down this year. The narrative is he’s angry with Green Bay and could just go nuts in his final season with the Pack, but New Orleans could be a tough matchup (on paper). They were third in DVOA against the pass, gave up the fifth-fewest yards, and 28 touchdown passes. I’ll never tell you Rodgers is out of play, but he’s not likely to be the main target this week for me.
RB – So this is a fascinating spot. Aaron Jones is $6,800 and that is flat-out just a misprice for his role and talents. In 14 games last season, he had 248 touches and put up over 1,450 scrimmage yards while scoring 11 times. Jones was the RB4 and finished fourth in rushing yards, 10th in carries, ninth in targets, and 12th in RZ touches. There are factors that I feel should be noted, however. The first is the Packers are without center Corey Linsley (signed with the Chargers) and All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari (PUP list). I’m not saying that totally derails Jones, but it doesn’t help either. Also, don’t expect a workload all that different than last year, at least in my eyes. Some analysts think his ceiling is higher with Jamaal Williams in Detroit but second-year back A.J. Dillon is going to be involved in some capacity. Jones and the Packers’ offense isn’t one we freak out over as far as the matchup, but New Orleans did finish second in DVOA against the run, allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards, and third-fewest receiving yards. I still like Jones but there are alternatives for GPP to be sure.
WR – If anyone tells you not to play Davante Adams because of cornerback Marshon Lattimore or any other reason related to the Saints defense, just smile and nod and then slot Adams in as you always would. Adams led the NFL in yards per route, was fifth in catchable targets, first in points per route, and fourth in points per target. Oh, by the way, he also was first in RZ targets, target rate, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. There isn’t much to say as he produces like an elite running back at a discount salary.
I’ll be honest, I’m not likely to play any one of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. I suppose you can make the case for Cobb since Rodgers specifically called for the Packers to bring him back and few players are as petty as Rodgers. He could force an extra target or two that way. Still, Adams eats up SO much of this passing game and Jones will be involved as well. I don’t think we have to deal with a three-headed monster fighting for scraps with the values we have available.
TE – I can’t see myself playing Robert Tonyan all that much this season. He absolutely lived on touchdowns with 11 on just 52 receptions (on 59 targets, which is an absurd catch rate). The points per route at fourth and points per target at first look great, but he was 28th in snap share. We could see his touchdowns cut in half and that would really kill his appeal for fantasy. The salary on top of that leaves him outside of my pool.
D/ST – The Packers are a little pricey but they get a passing game that has the potential to really crater in this spot. Green Bay got 41 sacks off just a 21.1% pressure rate, which is honestly impressive. Winston has never been the most careful quarterback in history and could struggle to find anyone open. If they go under the radar, that will only raise my interest.
Update – Za’Darius Smith looks highly questionable, and that’s not going to help the linebacker corps nor the pass rush.
Cash Plays – Jones, Adams, Rodgers
GPP Plays – D/ST, Cobb
QB – The battle is over for the starting quarterback gig in New Orleans and Jameis Winston emerged victorious. That’s all well and good, but it’s also hard to believe that Taysom Hill won’t be involved in the RZ as usual. That’s going to probably lower the ceiling for Winston not to mention the fact that his receiving corps is not complete with Michael Thomas on the PUP list. Green Bay was just average in DVOA against the pass last year at 15th but they only allowed 23 touchdowns. We haven’t seen Winston throw more than 11 passes since 2019 so the projection isn’t exactly easy. You’re hoping that he pushes the ball downfield more than Drew Brees did last season. He was 68th in air yards per attempt and Winston should unlock that portion of the offense, even if we’re not sure what else he’s going to do.
RB – I’m just going to leave this right here –
Now, the quarterback plays a large part in this and we talked about Brees definitively not stretching the field. Winston always has but he’s saying the right things about not Turing the ball over and one way to do that is to throw it to Alvin Kamara and let him do the work. New Orleans is drastically short on trustworthy pass catchers, and Kamara is going to help fill that void. The Saints don’t force-feed him a lot of carries but that is honestly awesome for fantasy. Kamara averaged under 13 carries per game but he saw over five receptions per game. He was number one in FPPO, total touchdowns, target share, and yards per route run among running backs. He averaged over nine yards per reception so we want his touches to come through the air. He’s cheaper than Derrick Henry and Green Bay finished 18th in DVOA against the run, seventh in receptions allowed to running back, and third in receiving yards allowed. If you decide to spend up on multiple RB slots, Kamara is likely my number two behind CMC.
WR – Playing cash games this week? You should be and I want you to pause reading for one second and go ahead and slot Marquez Callaway into one of your receiver slots. He’s going to be stone chalk since Michael Thomas is on the PUP list and Callaway showed off in the preseason. He caught two touchdowns from Winston in the last game and the Saints have so few reliable receivers in this offense to start the season. So, lock him in for cash.
Now, are you playing GPP? You should be doing that also and I want you to make a note – aside from the GPP you play with your cash lineup (that’s a must every week) do not play Callaway. He will likely be at least 30% in GPP and we’re going to zig away from that. There is potential it bites us but here is my fear. I know New Orleans has no receivers. Green Bay knows they have no receivers. If they’re smart, corner Jaire Alexander will be on Callaway as much as possible. Alexander is one of the elite corners in the NFL and I avoid him with non-elite receivers. Alexander finished 2020 fourth in fantasy points per game, seventh in FPPT, sixth in points per coverage snap, ninth in catch rate allowed, and third in yards per target. If he shuts Callaway down, it won’t hurt in cash at 80% but you can vault 30% of the field in GPP. That will be my only exposure to the Saints receiving corps on this slate.
Update – Tre’Quan Smith is on the IR so the secondary receivers are Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Deonte Harris. In theory, you could say Harris is a dynamite pivot away from Callaway but we have so many values at the position I’d have a very tough time going that route.
TE – It would appear that popular sleeper Adam Trautman could be out for this game and past that, it’s a very uninteresting crew behind him. We’d be looking at Nick Vannett (maybe), Garrett Griffin, and Juwan Johnson who isn’t in the DK player pool.
Update – Trautman is active, but still not a player I’m chasing.
D/ST – Do we play defenses against Rodgers and the Pack? No, we do not. Yes, even when the offensive line isn’t in the best shape.
Cash Plays – Callaway, Kamara
GPP Plays – Winston
QB – He’s under $6,000 and in a game with a high total on a projected underdog script, but Baker Mayfield is an unstable play. Baker flashed ceiling last year at times but Cleveland also attempted the fifth-fewest passes in the league last year. Ideally, you want the Chiefs to jump up early to force more pass attempts. Even with a low-volume offense, Baker was 12th in RZ attempts and 10th in air yards. That came without Odell Beckham Jr. through most of the season. It was a weird year last season because Cleveland had a free week stretch in just terrible weather that really knocked Baker’s stats down a peg. The Chiefs did allow 29 touchdowns last season and were just 16th in DVOA against the pass, so it wouldn’t shock me if Baker went for over 20 DK.
RB – I feel like every single fantasy analyst has said this sentence during the offseason – Nick Chubb might be the best pure runner in the NFL, BUT…” and there is a reason for that. Chubb had a Henry-Esque 16 receptions last season and a 5.2% target share. That is scary for a back that is one of the larger underdogs on the slate since it could force Cleveland to throw more. He made up for it with yards and touchdowns, but Cleveland isn’t shy about using Kareem Hunt in the RZ. Duly noted that Hunt played 16 games to just 12 for Chubb, but Hunt had 39 RZ attempts to 35 for Chubb. Now, Chubb was seventh in GL (goal line) carries, he finished third in yards created per touch and 11th in FPPO. If trends hold, Hunt had around an 11% target share but remember that the Browns receiving corps was missing components. Kansas City was 31st in DVOA against the run, it’s just a question of touches for Chubb. Hunt would be the play if you’re projecting them to trail by seven points or more (which I’d lean towards).
Update – We’re in the trenches here as center JC Tretter is questionable on the Browns side and Frank Clark is questionable for the Chiefs. Those would be big losses for both squads, not to mention safety Tyrann Mathieu’s status with Covid. If Clark and Mathieu are out, the KC defense is extremely vulnerable. We need to monitor these players and see if we can’t get a read before lock.
WR – I’m going to be sorely tempted by Odell Beckham at this salary, but it should be noted that he hasn’t played at all in the preseason and the Browns could elect to be slightly cautious with him coming off an ACL injury. With Bashaud Breeland elsewhere, Charvarius Ward should step into a large role from his 63.7% snap share of 2020. He could draw the assignment of guarding OBJ and Ward was a mixed bag. He allowed a 14.7 YPR but also allowed just 0.31 points per coverage snap.
Jarvis Landry should shift back into the slot a little more than his 46.8% rate of 2020, but the man is just a quality receiver regardless of where he lines up. He was 16th in yards per route, which might surprise some folks who think he’s a one-trick pony. Landry was also 17th in points per route, so he was very productive on top of it. At worst, he should remain the 1A in the passing tree and it’s really just a pricing issue that would keep me away from him. For the MME crowd, Donovan Peoples-Jones has drawn some high praise in camp and played well in the preseason. Cleveland only ran 11 personnel 44% of the time last year (one of the lowest in the league) but they could be forced into a pass-heavy script here. If he gets a few more snaps at OBJ’s expense, he could be a sub-1% player that could pop. He could also record a zero, so be aware of the risk.
Update – So the Browns are being coy with OBJ and have not said he’s playing on Sunday. I tend to think that’s just smoke, but I don’t want to be wrong and leave myself high and dry. My plan is to play OBJ in my Chiefs stack as my runback option BUT I’m leaving $600 in my lineup. It’s not particularly hard to do and if I’m wrong and Beckham doesn’t play, I can pivot directly to Landry.
TE – Cleveland enjoys depth at the position, which is great for them but not so great for us. Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant all played at least 46% of the snaps last year and Hooper did have a 19% targets share which makes him the favorite. Just remember that Beckham missed a lot of time last year and that skews the target share. The Chiefs did struggle against the position last year and the linebackers do remain a weakness on this squad. Hooper has the best chance, but a player like Hockenson is only $900 more. Pitts is only $500 more and both should be much safer bets to be involved in the offense.
D/ST – Do we play against the Chiefs with a defense? Nope.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Chubb, Baker, OBJ, Landry
QB – Who doesn’t want to play Patrick Mahomes this week or any other week? You can’t go too wrong provided you have values in your lineup to pay up at the quarterback spot and Mahomes is just flat-out fun to play. He finished last season fifth in yards per attempt, fourth in yards, eighth in RZ attempts, fourth in passing touchdowns, and 14th in FPPD. Mahomes was also fifth in attempts and it’s funny that he was the QB2 but had five games outside the QB10 range. That tells you the ceiling he possessed in the other games and he could wind up being even more consistent this year. That’s a scary thought for everyone else. Cleveland was 26th in DVOA against the pass and despite having Myles Garrett on their defensive line, had a pressure rate under 22%. I’m certainly not buying that Jadeveon Clowney is a difference-maker at this point so Mahomes is his normal high-ceiling play.
RB – I’m not sure I can remember a rookie running back in an elite offense cast aside by so many after one season (that included no preseason to acclimate). Plenty of folks want nothing to do with Clyde Edwards-Helaire but he was still a top 20 back in points per game despite scoring just five times on 207 total touches. Did you know CEH accumulated over 1,000 scrimmage yards? He was inside the top 20 in both rushing and receiving yards and now gets a fresh start. Cleveland was just 19th in DVOA against the run last year although they did allow just the eighth-fewest rushing yards. I’ll be the first to tell you CEH may not be my favorite this week, but I think he has top 10 upside for the season and potentially Week 1. A re-made offensive line could help and if he improves as a second-year player, the breakout could be quick to follow.
WR – I’m not sure I want the headache of trying to figure out the WR2 on this team between Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle. I’d lean Hardman of the bunch, but I’m not in love. What I am sure of is Tyreek Hill is a monster of a fantasy receiver. Want some scary stats? Reek was just 21st in target rate on routes run, 22nd in overall target share, and 14th in routes run. He was also fourth in unrealized air yards, 85th in catchable target rate, and third in points per route. He was the WR2 in points per game and the ceiling hasn’t even been realized yet. So let me present a scenario – departed Sammy Watkins had a 14% target share last year. Instead of wondering who the WR2 is, what happens if Hill climbs from a 23.2% target share to 27% or 28%? What happens if he and Mahomes connect on a few more deep balls? Destruction. That’s what happens as Hill could wreck any corner in his path. Denzel Ward is a top corner in the game but the Hill-Mahomes connection can overcome any matchup.
TE – We will typically tell you to not play double tight end in a lineup, but there is an exception to that rule and his name is Travis Kelce. It’s not even about the ranks among tight ends for Kelce because he has FAR surpassed his position group. In 2020, Kelce scored 312 PPR points. Only THREE running backs and THREE receivers scored more points than that. Kelce is $8,300 but worth every single penny. Cleveland allowed the fifth-most yards, the third-most receptions, and 10 touchdowns to tight ends last year. It’s not like the matchup even matters for Kelce, but it could well be a strong one and he falls under the same question I asked for Hill. What happens if Kelce gets a bump in target share and air yards share? Nuclear upside at a reasonable price.
D/ST – Cleveland only allowed 26 sacks but the Chiefs defense is set up to play the pass, as much as they can be. They rely on big plays and pressure, as they got pressure over 24.5% of the time and got home 32 times. They had 22 takeaways and are at a reasonable price, but I do prefer the Vikings for the same price.
Cash Picks – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill
GPP Picks – CEH
QB – If the owner would just pipe down and let Tua Tagovailoa play, I think the kid could be a pretty solid NFL quarterback. I don’t know what the upside is for Stephen Ross “reportedly” saying that he wants Deshaun Watson, but I digress. It wasn’t a very strong rookie year but the returns have reportedly been better at camp and Tua has looked much better in the preseason thus far. Rookie Jaylen Waddle should help stretch the field for him after ranking 36th in air yards per attempt in his action last year. Will Fuller will do the same when he’s back in action but that’s not a factor this week. While I remain hopeful for Tua on the year, facing Bill Belichick in New England is not ideal. The front seven of the Patriots is nasty, adding Matthew Judon and welcoming back Dont’a Hightower after an opt-out in 2020. They will be missing top-tier corner Stephon Gilmore but I’m not ready to play Tua with no Fuller in this scenario. New England was 18th in DVOA against the pass this year and that will almost surely improve in 2021.
Update – Starting left tackle Austin Jackson is out for this game, and the Patriots defense has an easier path to control the line of scrimmage. I’m really not interested in Miami this week.
RB – I’m going to shut down any Myles Gaskin talk at least for this week. New England may have finished dead last in DVOA against the run last year and given up the seventh-most rushing yards, but I think Coach Belichick noticed. They spent like drunken sailors in free agency, adding Judon, Davon Godchaux (defensive tackle), Kyle Van Noy (linebacker), and Henry Anderson (DT as well). I simply do not believe that Belichick will allow this kind of defensive performance again. The talent combined with his coaching could make this one of the strongest front seven’s in football. Gaskin was mostly a volume play since he had the eighth-highest snap share but was 27th in FPPO. His third-ranked yards per route is interesting, but the matchup is going to be very difficult and Malcolm Brown could siphon some work this year.
WR – I am concerned with the front seven that New England has, but getting the ball into the hands of a playmaker like the electric Jaylen Waddle can help in a big way. The loss of Stephon Gilmore in the early part of the season leaves the cornerback depth a bit of a question mark for New England. Waddle will see either J.C. Jackson or Jalen Mills for most of his snaps. Jackson allowed a 1.91 FPPT across 93 targets and Mills ran a 4.6 forty compared to almost sub 4.3 for Waddle. I don’t think he’s a player that I’ll prioritize, but I won’t be surprised to see a splash play or two. DeVante Parker is in play to some extent as he should be the alpha while Will Fuller is suspended. I just don’t feel the need to spend that salary.
TE – Mike Gesicki is a favorite of the group and he’s an incredible athlete, but that doesn’t always translate to fantasy success. We love that he played the second-most slot snaps at the position, but he also played only the 27th most snaps overall. Gesicki was getting high-value targets, ranking third in deep targets, third in air yards, and second in average target distance. He was also third in unrealized air yards and 28th in catchable target rate so there’s some hidden production to be had. I’m not convinced it’s coming against the New England front seven and safeties, so I’ll just play Pitts at the exact same price. I suppose if Pitts is super popular, the pivot could be interesting.
D/ST – Mac Jones looked excellent in the preseason but this is a different story. Miami will have a tough time leading the league in turnovers like they did last year but they blitzed over 40% of the time and had 41 sacks. Jones is not fleet of foot (to be nice about it) and he’s likely to see defenses that he’s never seen before. The price is very solid even though they are on the road.
Cash Plays – D/ST
GPP Plays – Waddle, Tua, Gesicki
QB – It may not have been a surprise that Mac Jones was named the starter, but what is surprising is Cam Newton was cut and Jones is the guy this year. The two quarterbacks could not be more different in how they play the game. Jones hasn’t had rushing ability since the fourth grade while Cam was not the most accurate guy around. That’s going to make life difficult as far as talking about what kind of offense the Patriots will run because it will not be last year’s version. They brought in two new tight ends, drafted another back in the later rounds, and have a rookie at the helm. Miami was just about at a 25% pressure rate last season and was sixth against the pass in DVOA. I can’t take Jones out of play totally because he’s legitimately the cheapest starter on the board, but it’s not an easy spot. You have to hope the accuracy he showed from the preseason continues when the games count. If he gets to 16 DK, that’s going to be 4x and the Dolphins allowed 19.7 DK last season.
RB – Between Sony Michel getting traded and Cam Newton being released, Damien Harris has emerged as a value on this slate. Now, his upside is tied to the play of Mac Jones because if the rookie can’t move the offense, Harris can’t find the end zone. The flip side of that is Cam had 19 goal-line carries last year and 12 rushing touchdowns. If the majority of those come to Harris, he’s going to be in great shape. The flip side is he needs touchdowns for any type of ceiling because the man had five receptions last year. FIVE. He still was able to rack up 691 rushing yards on just 137 carries and was sixth in yards per carry at 5.04. Miami was 22nd against the run last year in DVOA and James White should continue to handle the bulk of the passing work. My largest fear is if the Patriots use rookie Rhamondre Stevenson at the goal line because they would kill Harris as well. New England is pretty tough to gauge that type of stuff, especially in a new offense so I’m not crazy excited for Harris but he has potential at this price.
WR – Let’s add up some factors here. First, we have a rookie making his first start in Jones. Second, the Dolphins have two of the better corners in football in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Howard only allowed a 51.4% passer rating, the best in football last season while allowing just 1.46 FPPT. Jones was a bit worse but still only allowed 12 FPPG, and I’m not sure the mix of Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor are the receivers to beat these corners. Additionally, the Patriots spent heavily on tight ends and we don’t know exactly how the targets will get distributed. There is not a strong case for a Patriots receiver this week.
Update – Agholor is trending towards being out and that has some folks starting to gravitate towards Meyers but give me Corey Davis 100 times out of 100 for $200 less. Meyers did play in the slot for almost 50% of his snaps but the offense will be different to some extent this year. Justin Coleman played mostly slot last year for Miami and he allowed a 1.77 FPPT but that’s not enough for me to jam in Meyers.
TE – With Hunter Henry missing the majority of the preseason (but expected to play in Week 1), I’d rather turn to Jonnu Smith if I played a Patriots tight end. I think we should expect an upgrade over ranking 26th in routes run, 17th in targets, and 17th in snap share. If that happens, he may be able to show off ranking sixth in points per route and fourth in points per target. The Dolphins were strong against the position last year, but I very much expect their receivers to struggle in their matchups. Mac Jones could turn to Jonnu and Henry more often than not here.
D/ST – They are too expensive for my blood. They do look like a very solid play overall and I can see this game being low-scoring, close to the vest. The Pats managed the fifth-highest pressure rate despite getting home just 24 times. If they get that pressure rate again, the sacks are going to come. They also could improve on the 22 turnovers last year but the price is a lot. I’d just play SF in this range.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Harris, Jones, Smith, D/ST
Jalen Hurts, Marquez Callaway, Kyle Pitts, Tee Higgins
D.K. Metcalf (I’d write him four times if I could), Raheem Mostert, Travis Kelce, Antonio Gibson (certainly cash viable too, especially on DK. The loss of Samuel could bump him another 2-3 receptions)
Chiefs – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill – Runback – OBJ, Hunt, or possibly Chubb
Seahawks – Russ, DK GOATcalf, Lockett Runback – Pittman, Hines, Campbell
Eagles – Hurts, Smith, Reagor or Ertz – Runback – Ridley or Pitts
Titans – Tannehill, A.J. Brown, Julio – Runback – Hopkins, Green, Edmonds (and Kyler is a monster play so feel free to interchange quarterbacks)
Bills – Allen, Diggs, Sanders/Davis (pending health) Runback – Johnson, Najee, JuJu, Claypool
Jaguars – Lawerence, Jones Jr., Chark, Shenault Runback – Cooks, Collins, Akins
Panthers – Darnold, CMC, Moore, Marshall, Anderson (pairing Darnold, CMC, and a pass catcher is likely not popular but has every chance of all three hitting) Runback – Davis, Moore
Vikings – Cousins, Jefferson, Cook, Thielen, Conklin – Runback – Boyd, Higgins, Chase, Mixon
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