NFL DFS GPP

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5

I’m not sure about you but I’m anxious to put Week 4 behind me. Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, and Odell Beckham were among the players that I loved last week and did absolutely nothing. That’s going to happen some weeks in football but I’m more than ready to get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5 and get back on track! 

Patriots at Texans, O/U of 39.5 (Patriots -8.5)

Patriots 

QB – In theory, Mac Jones is sort of in play but I’m not sure how you could feel confident about it. He is coming off arguably his best fantasy game with two touchdown passes and over 250 yards passing and that couldn’t quite get him to 18 DK points. While that is over 3x return, it also doesn’t keep up with the quarterback scale. You can find players in the $6,000 range that can go over 25 DK. WHat’s wild is seeing Houston sitting in eighth in DVOA against the pass but bottom 12 in yards allowed. They have already allowed four rushing touchdowns but that’s not something that Jones can take advantage of. Jones is sixth in attempts but I’m not sure we can expect that to continue and even then, he’s 32nd in FPPD at just 0.32. 

RB – Typically, Damien Harris is not going to be on our radars for DK because he has such a low receiving floor. He only has eight targets all season and that can be dicey on a PPR site. This game could be a strong exception since the Texans are heavy underdogs and have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards against backs so far this year and three touchdowns. Harris was averaging 15 attempts per game ahead of the Buccaneers game and we should learn to just not pay much attention to those for backs. Tampa’s run defense just doesn’t allow big games and teams are not running into the brick wall. The Texans are allowing 4.5 yards per carry so far and if Harris gets another 15+ carries, he has a good shot at a score (or two) and 80-100 rushing yards. I’m willing to pay $5,500 on DK for that potential even if Harris is a zero in the receiving game. I’m not sure if this game would be the script to try it, but it appeared that Brandon Bolden got the first shot at replacing James White. He played just 32% of the snaps (White played around 44%) and Bolden saw six targets (White was about 6.5) and Bolden is the minimum price. The White role has been valuable to Jones so as a GPP play, you can try it. I could also see this game being super low-scoring and played at a snail’s pace, limiting the need for Bolden. 

Update – I was as excited as you can get about Harris but the Patriots will be missing four offensive lineman. I’m not playing a limited running back in that scenario unless you play a bunch of lineups. If anything, I may be more willing to take a flier on Bolden (and Meyers aces a step up as well for PPR sites). If the run game doesn’t do well, the short passing with Bolden and Meyers becomes more important. Both tight ends take a small step up as well.

WR – The only receiver we should be slightly interested in for a full slate is Jakobi Meyers, who is still on the hunt for his first touchdown since college. Even still, he’s playing at the fifth-highest slot rate in football and we love that for rookie signal-callers, along with an aDOT of just 8.9 yards. On a site like DK, he’s far more valuable with a full PPR scoring system and he can still be useful even without a score. He’ll mostly see Desmond King when he’s in the slot, which used to be an issue. King has fallen off however and through nine targets, he’s allowed a 109.5 passer rating and a 1.91 FPPT. With no other receiver earning more than a 14.5% target share, I won’t go further than Meyers. 

TE – If we’re going to play a tight end, it seems like it has to be Hunter Henry over Jonnu Smith. I will grant you that Smith has five RZ targets as opposed to two for Henry, but Henry is playing over 73% of the snaps in this offense. The role seems to be expanding as we go with 11 of the 18 targets coming across the past two weeks. The Texans have scuffled against the position as well with three touchdowns allowed (tied for second-most) and sit in the bottom five in receptions and yardage. With Henry being under $4,000, he’s my preferred option out of the duo but both need a score to truly help your lineup. 

D/ST – In a vacuum, it’s pretty clear that the Patriots defense would be the best play on the slate. Houston has allowed a pressure rate of almost 29%, has seven turnovers, is 28th in points per game, and the Patriots have five takeaways with 10 sacks. Bill Belichick is going to eat this offense for breakfast. Having said all of that, it’s a very rare week where I want to shell out $4,900 for defense so they likely do not make my build. Even if we get strong running back value on the slate, I’d just as soon spend the savings elsewhere. 

Cash Plays – Meyers, Henry

GPP Plays – Jones, Harris, Bolden, Smith, D/ST

Texans 

QB – Davis Mills scored negative DK points last week and faces one of the best coaches in football history with a sterling track record against rookie quarterbacks. Moving on. 

RB – I will continue to not touch this three-headed monster of Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay. Ingram has had just 24 carries since 28 in Week 1, Johnson leads in targets but only has 10 total, and no player has played over 35% of the snaps. That’s just not helpful on an offense that is barely functioning with w quarterback that may not be ready for NFL action and has to go against Bill Belichick in New England. 

WR – This side is short and sweet as well because normally, we’d just say play Brandin Cooks and move on. He owns a 56.9% share of the air yards in the offense and has a 37.1% target share. However, I fully expect the Patriots to bracket him relentlessly since they always try and take out the opposing team’s number one option. They’re going to force Mills to come off his primary read and sort the field, which isn’t likely to end well. I won’t have a single Texan in any lineup this week and that’s an easy “stand” to make. 

TE – Both Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins have a target share under 10%, Akins has two RZ targets, and they both play over 56% of the snaps. When you’re tied to one of the worst quarterbacks on the slate, there’s no real reason to tread this low. 

D/ST – The Texans have generated six takeaways thus far and do draw a rookie quarterback themselves but it’s still hard to back them. They only blitz about 15% of the time and have one of the lowest pressure rates in the league hovering around 16.5%. Mac Jones has had some rookie moments to be sure but this is still a mismatch and I believe we can do better even in the punt territory. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays –None 

Lions at Vikings, O/U of 49.5 (Vikings -8.5)

Lions 

QB – If you’re playing Jared Goff, you’re banking on the Minnesota secondary to continue being not that great and him needing to sling it in the second half of the game. Goff is fifth in attempts and that’s a good thing because he only has seven touchdowns and is 23rd in FPPD. What does scare me is the Vikings can get pressure and Goff is 28th in pressured completion rate but he counters that with the third-highest catchable pass rate at 80.7%. He does stand out for his salary and is a large reason why I wouldn’t want to go with Mac Jones. The script here for Goff is much more conducive for him to eat up some garbage time points and he is averaging 20 DK points. You’d be happy with that at the salary and the ceiling has been above 30 DK this season. Minnesota is only 15th in DVOA against the pass and is in the bottom 12 in passing yards allowed. They’d be even lower if Baker Mayfield could hit a receiver. 

RB – Coach Dan Quinn said during the week that D’Andre Swift would be getting more work this week, so naturally Jamaal Williams had a 6-1 carry lead after one quarter of play last week. Williams also had a 14-12 lead in touches and to be fair, he ground out some good yardage on the ground but I just don’t get this split. You can still safely play Swift over Williams in GPP since Swift is co-leading this team in targets and is second in targets across the NFL. Really, he would have a good shot at the lead if not for a 19 target game from Najee Harris but I digress. The matchup is a little better as well with the Vikings allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and 20 receptions. I feel like if you play a couple of lineups per week, Swift is always in play at this price point since he has shown 4x ceiling and his defense is going to allow points. Minnesota has a much higher functioning offense than the Bears did last week and the Lions need to get this kid the ball to keep up. 

Update – The Lions could be without three offensive lineman as well, so keep an eye on that. I don’t think it has a super strong effect on Swift since we’re playing him more for passing value, but it’s still not ideal.

WR – The matchup is great for both Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus but neither has a target share over 14.1% this year and that is thin. Granted, you’re not paying up for them and we know for sure the Vikings corners can be had. Patrick Peterson would see more of Cephus and has gotten scorched for a 13.9 YPR and a 1.79 FPPT. The other side of the field features Bashaud Breeland and his 2.97 FPPT up against Raymond when he’s not in the slot about 30% of the time. Raymond has a few more targets but these two are similar with an aDOT within 0.2 yards and they both have three RZ targets. Cephus does lead in EZ targets and is cheaper, so that gives a slight edge but neither is a focal point in the passing game to this point. 

Update – I overlooked Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first run of the article. I apologize but he saw eight targets last week and produced 6/70. The Lions spent draft capital on him and they need a receiver to start being dependable in this corps. I would stop short of saying dependable yet, but it’s a good step in the right direction and they could be without a major target in this offense.

TE – It was another slow week for T.J. Hockenson with under 10 DK points but he is still tied with Swift in overall targets and RZ targets on this Lions offense. Only Darren Waller of the Raiders has more targets than Hock at the position so when we see him under $6,000, he is still very much in play. I have a difficult time seeing the Detroit defense slowing down the Vikings offense so we should expect a lot of passing from the Lions. Hockenson will be front and center and the Vikes have allowed the eighth-most yards in football to the position. That’s a little bit of a surprise with their personnel but that’s where we are four weeks in. Hock is a strong run-back option if you’re playing a Vikings stack this week like I have a strong interest in doing. 

Update – This felt like it sprung up out of nowhere. Hockenson is now potentially going to miss this game. He says he has a “chance” to play and that’s not exactly inspiring. If he’s out, I’d be more inclined to play Cephus or Raymond.

D/ST – The Lions were a very popular punt last week but the Vikings have only turned the ball over twice thus far and have allowed a pressure rate of about 27%. They’ve also only allowed seven sacks through four weeks while the Lions continue to lose key elements to the defense, this week being pass rusher Romeo Okwara. I wouldn’t go here myself. 

Cash Plays – Swift, Hockenson 

GPP Plays – St. Brown, Cephus, Raymond, Goff 

Vikings 

QB – Kirk Cousins got a garbage game out of the way and we can safely go right back after him against one of the most vulnerable defenses in football. Detroit is 30th in DVOA against the pass and don’t let the 1,070 yards allowed fool you. Detroit has faced the fewest appeasing attempts so far this year at just 101 and have already surrendered seven touchdowns. Despite the dud last week, Cousins is eighth in attempts, fifth in touchdown passes, 10th in yardage, and 17th in FPPD. The red “6th” in the matchup column is very misleading and I will be happy to play Cousins this week for certain. 

RB – We’ll need to talk during the week about this play. The cliff notes version is if Dalvin Cook is healthy and ready to roll, this is a total smash spot and I love him. If he’s out and Alexander Mattison is playing while Cook sits, this is a total smash spot and I love him. Cook didn’t play over 50% of the snaps last week and may have aggravated his ankle injury. If that’s the case, Mattison is a stone-cold lock in cash games and would honestly be hard to fade in GPP as well. Mattison went down in salary to just $5,500 despite sitting at $6,000 against the Seahawks and the slate releasing well after Cook may have been banged up. Let’s revisit but the Lions have given up the most touchdowns to running backs at nine total and over 540 scrimmage yards in addition to being ranked 26th in DVOA against the rush. 

Update – Cook has openly said he’s not 100% and only logged one limited practice this week. If he’s out, Mattison is a lock but if he plays…it gets difficult. I would just play Henry in cash and move on. Cook would be GPP only for me with the chance of re-injury.

WR – Justin Jefferson has been very solid through the season already and has a game of 29 DK under his belt and he really seems primed to do that again this week. He has a 42.8% share of the air yards and leads the team in targets at 37 which is 12th in the NFL. With the Lions being so short on corners, Amani Oruwariye is likely to be tasked with slowing him down and so far in 15 targets, he’s allowed a 2.27 FPPT and a 130.4 passer rating. He is the second-most expensive receiver on the slate but is potentially my favorite spend-up option. 

If you can’t fit Jefferson, it’s not a bad thing to settle for Adam Thielen although you’re likely to be much more dependent on the touchdowns there. He’s only seven PPR points behind JJ on the year despite having fewer receptions and yards because he’s scored one more touchdown. The targets are basically the same as well, Thielen just doesn’t get the same downfield looks with an 8.4 aDOT. Jefferson is clearly the alpha but I’d be happy to play either player in my lineup this week. Detroit is down to starting their third and fourth corners on the season. 

TE – Tyler Conklin continues to get significant burn in this offense with 76% of the snaps and a 14.4% target share, including a 20% share of the RZ targets. He’s doing this while not being in the top 10 in routes run and not playing hardly any in the slot, which is a compliment to him. With players like Jefferson, Cook, and Thielen on this side, Conklin is never going to be a popular option. He does represent a way to get different with a Vikings stack and if he scores, you’re likely to be pretty happy. Detroit is also in the bottom 10 in yards allowed so there’s a path for Conk to hit at this salary. 

D/ST – Minnesota represents one of the more stable options on the slate in my eyes. They aren’t crazy expensive at just $3,000 and they are tied for the third-most sacks so far with a 27.9% pressure rate. That’s with playing blitz only 21.1% of the time and even with a significant weakness in the secondary, it’s questionable if Detroit can take advantage. The two takeaways are not the most appealing stat ever but the price is solid and Goff has been sacked 10 times. 

Cash Plays – Jefferson, Mattison if no Cook, Cousins, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Cook if active, Thielen, Conklin

Saints at Washington, O/U of 44 (Saints -2) 

Saints 

QB – I’m not a Taysom Hill fan at all, but if you’re playing Jameis Winston to throw the ball 86 times through four games, there isn’t much point. Hill would at least run and add another dimension to the offense if they’re going to play so conservatively. Jameis is fifth in FPPD but it honestly doesn’t matter when you’re not dropping back ad you sit 29th in yards, 30th in air yards, and under 20th in yards and air yards per attempt. Washington sits 29th against the pass in DVOA but Winston is nothing more than a cheap GPP flier if you’re playing a bunch of lineups. I wish I had more confidence since they also are fifth-word in yards allowed and tied for second in touchdowns allowed. 

RB – *Sigh* I really wish I felt more confident in playing Alvin Kamara right now. This is one of the best backs in the entire league but he has 14 targets on the season. What are we doing?? He’s producing on the ground with over 74 yards rushing per game and he ran for 120 yards last week, which is great! He also didn’t score so you only got 15 DK points and at this salary, that really winds up hurting you more than anything else. While Washington has not been anything resembling the defense we thought, they have only allowed 327 yards so far on the ground but they are in the bottom 12 in DVOA. With the severe lack of targets, Kamara is much riskier at this point until we see something change. 

WR – Would I love to try and play a receiver here to take advantage of Washington’s secondary scuffling in the first four weeks? Yes, for sure. Then I look at the Saints receiving corps and realize that Deonte Harris leads with 15 targets, good for *checks notes*… 72nd in the NFL. That’s a Big Yikes and Marquez Callaway is sitting at 13. There is simply not any reliable volume to this passing offense right now and there are no signs of it changing. You have to have efficiency or some type of volume when chasing receiver plays and at these price points, I’ll play the Detroit receivers ahead of Harris or Callaway. I would side with Harris out of the two, but wouldn’t feel good about it. You’re hoping he breaks a long touchdown like Week 1 to pay off in any tangible way. 

TE – I will continue to not even look at Juwan Johnson, despite a touchdown last week. He has exactly 10 targets through four games and you can’t expect success with that amount of work. He’s run 38 routes on the season, 48th among tight ends. Do we need to say much more? 

D/ST – It was a letdown if you played the Saints last week as they didn’t do very much but they still remain a strong defense overall. The surprise is they have only registered six sacks but they mitigate that with eight takeaways already. With Washington only allowing four sacks on the year, this may not be the best matchup for New Orleans. You’re not wanting to rely on two turnovers per game with a pressure rate of just 23%. I would rather just play the Vikings. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – D/ST, Harris

Washington 

QB – I’m quite surprised to see Taylor Heinicke sitting sixth in FPPD after Week 4, but he’s playing fairly well. He’s definitely running to the good side of variance because he’s thrown 14 interceptable passes so far but he’s 12th in yards per attempt and has thrown eight touchdowns. His weapons are changing in this game but I don’t think that’s a total death sentence. Heinicke sits first in pressured completion rate with a 66.7% rate so while the Saints are sixth in DVOA against the pass, they can be had. I’m not making Heinicke a priority play by any stretch but he is under $6,000 and could get very overlooked. 

RB – It really seems like J.D. McKissic is taking a ton of targets away from Antonio Gibson but it’s only a 14-13 advantage for the former. However, it seems that the ceiling for Gibson’s touches is right about 15-18 touches and that’s fine, but you’re going to wish it was more. Gibson hasn’t hit 15 attempts since Week 1 and has a combined five receptions across the last three weeks. Now he walks into a very tough matchup with the Saints who have only allowed 203 yards rushing with two scores and rank inside the top-five in DVOA against the run. They are a little vulnerable through the air with 188 yards allowed (13th most) but playing McKissic is not the most fun proposition with a floor of around 3-5 touches. With the Saints not being a high-end offense at this juncture, Washington may not be in passing mode as much as we would think. 

Update – Gibson is playing with a stress fracture in his shin, which frankly sounds pretty awful. I’m not sure it changes anything, but you do wonder if that’s been part of the reason he’s not getting a ton of touches.

WR – Terry McLaurin is a fully grown man and continues to walk through any matchup put in front of him with a backup quarterback. He’s inside the top 10 in points per game, air yards share, yards, and touchdowns so far. He’s also 11th in yards per route and receptions so even though Marshon Lattimore waits on the other side, I’m not scared. Heinicke is throwing the ball regardless of anything else happening and Lattimore hasn’t been a total shutdown corner with a 1.67 FPPT and a 95.5 passer rating. 

I’m still very interested in Curtis Samuel. Washington was cautious with him to no shock to anyone as he only ran 16 routes. The good news is he drew four targets on 16 routes and now the Football Team will be without their starting tight end. He was in the slot about 32% of the time so he’ll be moving around and a 25% target rate is nothing to be sorry about. Knowing that Samuel is still minimum priced, he doesn’t need a lot to hit and we can only expect the workload to increase with a game under his belt and another week of practice. 

Update – Samuel only logged one limited practice this week, so I would back off taking a shot at Samuel.

TE – With the probable loss of Logan Thomas for this week, Ricky Seals-Jones is the only tight end on the Washington roster to catch a pass this season. He played 93% of the snaps but only saw four targets and that could decrease since Samuel should play more snaps in this upcoming week. As a tone minimum punt, he could make other things fir in the lineup but you have to understand under five DK points is the more likely outcome. New Orleans has only allowed 180 yards and no scores to the position as well, adding a layer of difficulty for Seals-Jones. 

Update – Thomas is indeed out.

D/ST – They have been really poor against the expectations but the price is still very eye-opening. They have a 27% pressure rate and run a blitz around 30% of the time. The takeaways and sacks have not been there with just two and seven respectively and that’s been the surprise. Winston has a 28% pressure rate with just seven sacks and the team has just three turnovers. However, at this salary, I have to admit some interest in Washington. New Orleans is a far cry from the explosive offense we’ve known for so long. 

Cash Plays – McLaurin

GPP Plays – Gibson, McKissic, Heinicke, Seals-Jones

Dolphins at Bucs, O/U of 48 (Bucs -10)

Dolphins 

QB – There are holes back end of the Tampa defense but I’m not sure I want to go after Jacoby Brissett here. He’s 29th in FPPD and only has two passing touchdowns across 119 attempts thus far. Now, the Bucs are tied for the most touchdown passes allowed, they are 31st in yards allowed and are 21st in DVOA against the pass. If Miami is smart, they’re just going to throw a ton because the run game is so unlikely to work. You could twist my arm into it but I remain slightly unconvinced that he has a worthwhile ceiling. 

RB – Can I just say “pass” and move on like a game show? No? Alright, fine. We’ve talked all year about not being able to run on Tampa and Miami has given us no reason to think they can buck the trend. Myles Gaskin is not even at 50% of the snaps anymore, nor is he getting RZ rushes with just one on the entire season. Malcolm Brown has seven attempts in the RZ and Gaskin only having a 10% share of the passing game isn’t enough to get me to bite at his price. In this matchup, I would greatly rather finding the $400 to play Harris from New England and be perfectly satisfied with that process. 

WR – With the news that Will Fuller is back to the IR with a finger injury, we get a little more safety in both Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker. We also know that the Tampa secondary is in tatters with Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis both missing, so this is clearly the Achilles heel for the defense. I’m still a little annoyed that Waddle is just the low aDOT player at 4.6 since he’s so shifty in the open field and has the speed that he does, but it is what it is at this point. He’s also only one target off the team lead so I can’t really argue too hard and he’s tied for the lead in RZ targets. Waddle could face Dee Delaney at this point who was undrafted in 2018. Parker could face Richard Sherman for some of the game and it’s not a harsh criticism since Sherman hasn’t played all year but he looked terrible Sunday night. Perhaps a full week gets him more up to speed but Miami is going to have to pass a lot and both receivers are well in play. Waddle is a player that is getting talked about for more chances to field punts and he’s going to have a breakout game sooner or later. 

TE – Mike Gesicki continues to be super affordable and also the usage continues to climb. He’s sixth in routes run, second in slot snaps, and seventh in target share among tight ends. On top of that, he’s third in air yards and second in air yards share, pointing at the type of role he has in the Miami offense these past couple of weeks. Gesicki has also skyrocketed to sixth in receptions and third in both completed and unrealized air yards. With the Buccaneers defense continuing to be elite against the run, he should have plenty of opportunities this week with the Dolphins needing to take to the air to move the sticks. All the metrics support Gesicki continuing to be a weapon, even with other receiving options. The Bucs have allowed three scores and the second-most receptions against the position as well. 

D/ST – I can’t really build the case here. I do get that the Dolphins have a pair of strong corners and in theory, could slow down the passing game, but I don’t expect Tampa to have two poor games in a row offensively. The Dolphins are getting a pressure rate approaching 26% but they only have seven sacks on the season and six takeaways. I don’t see a reason to challenge the Bucs offense. 

Cash Plays – Waddle, Gesicki 

GPP Plays – Parker, Brissett

Buccaneers 

QB – I guess age is catching up with Tom Brady since he didn’t throw a single touchdown pass in the last game. Of course, he would have had one had receivers not dropped at least one but I digress. Miami is 12th against the pass in DVOA and has only allowed seven touchdowns so far. Brady still leads in RZ attempts, is second in yards, first in air yards, and 16th in FPPD. When you lead in attempts, the FPPD isn’t as important and we all know that If you’d like to play Brady, you do so. What I may do is instead of trying to get the receiver right to pair with him is just to play the next man we’re going to talk about with added reception upside if Gio Bernard remains out. 

RB – It’s not exactly the most fun play on the slate, but Leonard Fournette really is likely too cheap given the share of the Tampa backfield he controls. He’s the clear option ahead of Ronald Jones at basically every level, the touchdown for Ronald Jones notwithstanding. Jones only had six touches while Fournette hogged 23 touches altogether and the (likely) continued absence of Gronk will help keep those targets secure. He has been game-script dependent with only seven touches when they got beat by the Rams but he’s had 15 in Weeks 2 and 4. A matchup with the Dolphins would certainly project to be a winning script through most of it and while we don’t love the fact that he only has seven RZ attempts, Miami has allowed the third-most rushing yards and over 650 scrimmage yards thus far. I think we can feel safe with 15 total touches for Fournette and the price doesn’t reflect being the lead back in one of the best offenses in the NFL. 

Update – Gio is questionable and trending towards playing which could take a small amount of stability away from Fournette. That does NOT mean I don’t really like him this week. He is still way, way too cheap.

WR – Taking a stab at which receiver has the best game is always going to be tough with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown all in the mix. AB is difficult to gauge especially since last week he played all of 51% of the snaps but had a whooping 11 targets. He’s playing very little in the slot and has a 25.6% target rate and the best guess would leave AB facing Byron Jones who has only allowed a 1.31 FPPT. Evan would primarily face Xavien Howard and despite being sixth in air yards, Evans has shown us he can disappear with the best of them. Howard has allowed a 1.74 FPPT and a 103.7 passer rating so he’s not been elite, but this is not an easy spot for Evans. The answer could just be Godwin since he plays almost every snap and runs the most out of the slot. He’s number one in routes run and 15th in yards and will face off against Nik Needham. I do want a piece of this offense but I would not play any receiver in cash unless they are projected to be overwhelming chalk. 

TE – If you’re going this route while Rob Gronkowski is still on the mend, Cameron Brate almost has to be your guy. He and O.J. Howard both played over 60% of the snaps but Brate was targeted six times to just one for Howard. That’s not exactly new either because Brate had a 6-2 lead in targets even with Gronk active so we just saw a continuation. Brate is a fine option and if you believe the boundary receivers are a bit more muted in this spot, he makes sense to stack with Godwin and take the path of least resistance when you stack with Brady. 

D/ST – If I’m in this range (and I won’t be), I’d just play the Patriots unit. Tampa has some injuries throughout their secondary that are helping drag down the performance a bit but they have six takeaways and seven sacks. They also run a blitz around 31% which is the fifth-highest in the league, which should lead to a couple of mistakes from the Miami offense. It’s just too hefty a price tag to be that interested. 

Cash Plays – Brady, Fournette

GPP Plays – Godwin, Brown, Evans, Brate 

Packers at Bengals, O/U of 51.5 (Packers -3.5)

Packers 

QB – I’m not particularly buying that the Bengals are going to stick at 11th in DVOA against the pass all year, so Aaron Rodgers has the green light and pretty much always does. It’s a bit crazy to see him just 21st in attempts on the season but with the injuries on defense, he could be in line for more work coming up. I will admit, some of his metrics do not look all that great. He is just 18th in yards per attempt, 26th in passing yards, and only 25th in completed air yards. The RZ work helps with the seventh-most attempts but the first four weeks have been slightly underwhelming from a passing perspective. He hasn’t passed 26.8 DK points yet and even then, that took four touchdown passes. If it were a player other than Rodgers, we’d be skeptical of the salary. 

RB – This isn’t a slight on him but I feel like I almost never get Aaron Jones correct. He’s just one of those guys that I don’t get along with but that’s just been my luck. I wouldn’t get too worked up about the split between Jones and A.J. Dillon last week. That game was pretty much out of reach by the third quarter (more on that later) so there was no real reason to load up Jones with a ton of work. Even then, he still had 18 total touches and he’s fourth in RZ attempts and he has six RZ targets (tied for the league lead) on top of that. He’s scored five times and while it’s a hair frustrating that four of them came in just one game, it’s hard to find many other players with his touchdown equity from week to week. The Bengals started to show one vulnerability on the ground last week and the Packers offense is far more advanced than the Jaguars. I give the Bengals credit for being a top 10 DVOA defense against the run, but that means very little when it comes to an elite option like Jones. 

WR – I’m annoyed that last week I had such large heart eyes for Davante Adams that I totally ignored Randall Cobb. Now, Adams got his normal 11 targets for over 31% of the share which is typically going to work out just like it always does. However, Cobb played 45% of the snaps which was the third most among receivers. Allen Lazard is just out there running cardio while Cobb saw six targets. He’s been running out of the slot over 70% of the time and that means he’s going to face Mike Hilton who has allowed an 82.6% catch rate and a 1.81 FPPT. I certainly wouldn’t expect him to replicate two scores but he is cheap for a larger role in the offense with no Marquez Valdes-Scantling. After Adams disappointed a hefty part of the field, he could be a strong spend-up option because no defense can truly contain him. It was just one of those games last week. 

TE – Robert Tonyan is simply not playable at this price tag for me. It was kind of nice to see him get seven targets in Week 4 after only seeing a combined eight during the first three weeks. However, he is strongly touchdown or nothing and he’s over $4,300. Even to be a contrarian, I don’t think there’s a strong case to be made that suddenly Tonyan is a stronger play than Gesicki for $100 more. Tonyan is 18th in routes and about the only path is he’ll see more targets with MVS out of the lineup. Even then, Marcedes Lewis had a higher aDOT this past week even on two targets so I’m just playing Gesicki and getting all those metrics as opposed to hoping Tonyan scores. 

D/ST – No, thank you. Not only have they missed linebacker Z’Darius Smith all year, but now they will be without elite CB Jaire Alexander. That’s not ideal against a passing game that appears to be finding their footing and on the road. As it stands, Green Bay is in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate and Cincy has only allowed a 21.7% pressure rate so far. 

Cash Plays – Adams, Jones

GPP Plays – Rodgers, Cobb

Bengals 

QB – Joe Burrow may be heating up with his best fantasy game of the year last week and the hope for fantasy is this game just goes up and down. Burrow has yet to throw more than 32 times in a game, which is…surprising, to say the least. In those attempts, he is fourth in yards per attempt and 12th in FPPD so if he starts to sling it more, lookout. Burrow is top 10 in deep-ball completion rate, pressured completion rate, and clean pocket completion rate so really the only metric missing right now is the volume. The Packers offense is more than capable of forcing a ceiling game from Burrow and I am very interested, especially if he gets one of his receivers back from injury. 

RB – People who had Joe Mixon on their teams last year are having flashbacks to Mixon being absent for most of the season. Coach Zac Taylor seems to think it’s day-to-day but we’ll see about that. If Mixon suits up, he appears to be fairly cheap since he is behind only Derrick Henry in carries through four weeks and the Packers ranked 25th in DVOA against the run. There is a small issue of Mixon only having nine targets through the season but he’s also barely over $6,000 on DK. If Mixon doesn’t make it for this game, Samaje Perine would appear to be the next man up as he played 28% of the snaps last week and had four touches. At the stone minimum, it would be hard not to make him a building block in cash because he would be borderline locked into 12-15 touches. That’s all we could ask for and the ceiling would be over 15 DK points. 

Update – It certainly appears that Mixon is going to be out but keep in mind Chris Evans. The Bengals staff says it will be a committee so I would be hesitant to go all in on Perine this week, even at the salary. I would expect Evans to be active in the passing game a little bit this week.

WR – We’ll have to circle back later in the week with the stats of Tee Higgins (who is a gift at $5,000 if healthy). If he makes it back, Cincinnati could have their full receiving trio back in action just in time to pick on a secondary that is likely to miss Jaire Alexander. While the volume hasn’t been there for the passing game yet, Rodgers and the Packers offense could force the issue here. If Higgins is out, Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase become even more priority plays as no receiver is over $5,800. Just remember that when Higgins played in Week 1 and 2, he led the team with 15 targets while Boyd had 13 and Chase had 11. Higgins would be very interesting in all formats if he’s active. 

TE – Whispers – I will not buy the C.J. Uzomah game, I will not buy the C.J. Uzomah game! He went nuts on Thursday night and I went back because I assumed I missed the signals that he was playing a larger role in the passing game with Higgins out. While he played plenty of snaps at 77%, he had one target in Week 3 and five combined in the first three games. We can safely say that his six targets on Thursday were the outlier to his season at this point. The 10.5% target share is indicative of his small role and he’s not in the top 12 in routes run. 

D/ST – As long as the Packers are relatively healthy, I will not challenge Aaron Rodgers and company. 

Cash Plays – Higgins, Burrow

GPP Plays – Chase, Perine, Boyd, Evans

Broncos at Steelers, O/U of 39.5 (Steelers -1)

Broncos 

QB – I will have no Drew Lock on this slate if he winds up being the starter. Pittsburgh might be 23rd in DVOA against the pass but Lock is just not a good quarterback and his salary saving won’t matter if he scores around 12 DK points. If Teddy Bridgewater makes it back, we can discuss it because that is a much better option. 

Update – I’m not playing him but Bridgewater making it back for this game raises all the pass catchers in the offense. I’m much more willing to play a Noah Fant, for instance.

RB – The split continues with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, to the point where it was legitimately 50/50 last week. Just as we discussed last week, they are close to not playable for the most part because you’d have to pick the right guy to break a long play or score. Williams has only hit double-digit DK points once and he scored and MG3 has done it twice with scores in each game. With Pittsburgh still being stingy on the ground with only 335 yards allowed and sixth in DVOA against the run, it’s hard to support either player. I’m still of the belief that Williams will have a breakout game at some point while he’s splitting with Gordon but predicting it is difficult. The RZ attempts are 11-8 for MG3 and the targets are 11-9 for Gordon so he has a slight edge in usage. Talent should win out at some point though for Williams even if we don’t know exactly when (and it may not be this year, in honesty). 

WR – We can look at Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick after a down game for the Broncos offense all around. Sutton especially has an appealing air yards share of almost 40% and even last week, it was 43% even if things didn’t quite connect. Perhaps his largest issue is the fact he has not had a good fantasy game outside of the Jacksonville game and that’s easier to write off as a fluke given opponent. I will point out that Joe Haden has a speed disadvantage and has allowed a 2.25 FPPT and a 13.6 YPR so this could be a quiet spot for Sutton to get right. For Patrick, he’ll be on the opposite side of Haden through most of the game and has a target share of 18% over the past two weeks, just two off the team lead in that time. He’s still fine but as with all of the other offensive pieces, I want Bridgewater in before taking the leap. 

TE – I won’t tell you not to play Noah Fant with how many injuries the skill players from Denver have suffered but he won’t be high on my list at this salary. He’s only ninth in routes, which is a surprise to me and his aDOT is 31st among tight ends, not ideal. What he does have going for him is he’s sixth in receptions and second in RZ targets, and that’s what you’re playing him for. I still feel like he’s a hair expensive but Fant is a mountain of the man and could be an issue for the Steelers linebackers. He is only one target off the lead for the Broncos but could be more of a cash play than a ceiling play. 

D/ST – The Broncos join the ranks of the Patriots and Bucs in that I LOVE the potential, but can’t pay that much. Denver has a pressure rate over 27% and 11 sacks while Pittsburgh has allowed 10 sacks and has proven that their offense is not functional at the NFL level. Until the Steelers make a quarterback change, the opposing defense is always in play. 

Cash Plays – Fant

GPP Plays – Sutton, Patrick 

Steelers 

QB – Everyone knows how I feel about Ben Roethlisberger at this point and he has a hip injury (insert the finger quotes) now on top of it. Denver is seventh in DVOA, has allowed the sixth-fewest yards, and has more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed. You can’t even make the argument it’s a strong matchup. 

RB – Somehow, someway, Najee Harris continues to produce for fantasy with at least 19 DK points in three straight games. A large part of that is because he is co-leading the Steelers with a 20.4% target share and his 35 targets lead all running backs. While his 19 target game certainly skews things, he is going to continue to get a boatload because his quarterback is done. He can’t make NFL-level throws at all and certainly not with consistency so Harris will have to be a large part of the offense. Denver represents a tough spot on paper since they have allowed just 247 scrimmage yards to backs and only one score. The DVOA backs it up as well as they sit in the top 10 and they almost held the Ravens under 100 rushing yards. hey will be on the road but they also should be able to fully commit to stopping the run and let their secondary handle the receivers in the offense. 

WR – With such awful quarterback play, the only player I’ll entertain is Diontae Johnson. He is a target magnet and even with questions about everything else, we can rely on this – 

He is somehow the WR8 in points per game this season, sits 16th in receptions, and seventh in target rate. Patrick Surtain has played pretty well with a 1.49 FPP and 57.7% completion rate allowed so far but Johnson is simply always open. I don’t think he’s a vital need nor do I believe this one to be a strong game stack but I don’t hate him as a one-off or mini-stack with a single Bronco. JuJu Smith-Schuster is currently the WR58 and Chase Claypool needed both Johnson and JuJu to miss time to be relevant. 

TE – An unappealing timeshare with two tight ends and a broken quarterback? Sounds terrible, to be honest. Eric Ebron and Pat Freiermuth have split snaps almost equally and even when the rookie gets an edge like last week’s 55%, he sees just one target. I’d just as soon play Seals-Jones from Washington. 

D/ST – This play will be a lot more appealing if Teddy Bridgewater can’t clear concussion protocol because Drew Lock just hasn’t proven to be very good. Pittsburgh is fifth in pressure rate even though their blitz rate has come down to just 16.1%. They have only generated three takeaways and that has been an issue, along with ranking 23rd in total DVOA. This will be dependent on the Broncos situation more than anything else. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Najee, Johnson 

Eagles at Panthers, O/U of 45.5 (Panthers -3.5)

Eagles 

QB – Carolina is a tough matchup as they sit fifth in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-fewest yards passing but with Jalen Hurts, that isn’t a deal-breaker. Hurts is 12th in attempts, ninth in yards, ninth in FPPD, ninth in play-action completion rate, and 12th in pressured completion rate. He does still have some struggles with just a 67.6% catchable pass rate but at least for fantasy, the rushing yards mitigate every flaw. He is second in carries, second in rushing yards, and averages over 56 rushing yards per game. Constant pressure from Carolina could lead to extra scrambles for Hurts and I will never have a problem playing a rushing quarterback. 

RB – I tried to get Miles Sanders right last week and that certainly did not happen with just 10 touches for 47 yards while Kenneth Gainwell had nine touches and turned that into 89 scrimmage yards and a score. While Gainwell is still only playing about 35% of the snaps, he’s carving out a meaningful role in the offense. Sanders has the easy edge in carries at 34-19 but Gainwell is tied for second on the Eagles in targets at 20. Gainwell also holds a 6-2 edge in RZ targets and only trails by two in RZ rushing attempts. I’m not exactly a huge fan of either, but for an $800 savings in GPP, you could argue that Gainwell is the better play. The receiving work makes it interesting but by no means is he a must-play. 

WR – We started to see the ceiling for Devonta Smith last week with 7/122 and he is still under $6,000 for this slate. Now, the matchup isn’t nearly as good as it was last week as the Panthers have given up under 500 yards passing against receivers. They have also faced the second-fewest attempts to the position which is noteworthy and they have allowed five touchdowns. Smith is ninth in air yards and fourth in unrealized air yards early on as well. Smith easily leads the Eagles with a 22.6% target share and could face off with Donte Jackson or C.J. Henderson. Both players are over a 1.80 FPPT and honestly, Smith is already so smooth in his routes that he’s a difficult cover. 

Jalen Reagor is still carrying a 14% target share and is capable of breaking a big play, especially if he gets Henderson who is still acclimating to his new team. Both Reagor and Quez Watkins can make things work with one play but also have a floor of zero with the other options involved in the offense. 

TE – It’s still a little weird to see Dallas Goedert trail Zach Ertz in targets at 19-16, but that’s how things have gone so far in this offense. Ertz also has the advantage in routes run (only by seven but it still counts), RZ targets by one, and EZ targets by one. With that being said, the salary difference feels a tad extreme. I grant you that Goedert has cleared at least 40 yards in three of four games and has two scores but Ertz has been over 33 yards in three of four and is only one touchdown behind. The Panthers have been middle of the pack against the position so I don’t feel a need outside of maybe part of a game stack, but Ertz at his salary would still be my choice. 

D/ST – Philly is just 24th in DVOA and only has eight sacks on the season. They also only have two takeaways and their blitz rate is way down as well. They are of the slightest interest if only because they’re super cheap but I’m not sure if there is a ton of upside, especially if Carolina is healthier this week. 

Cash Plays – Hurts, Smith 

GPP Plays – Ertz, Gainwell, Goedert, Sanders, Reagor 

Panthers 

QB – We’re not breaking new ground to say that Sam Darnold isn’t going to lead the league in rushing touchdowns for much longer but he’s also sixth in yards, 11th in yards per attempt, and 11th in FPPD. Darnold is far from perfect but remains fifth in pressured completion rate at 57.9%, a nice step up for him. Philly is down to 22nd in DVOA against the pass and has only forced one interception. The small turnover concerns that can creep in for Darnold seem to be muted in this one. He may not be my favorite target of the slate, but he remains a fine option. 

RB – It would be hard to ignore Christian McCaffrey at $8,700 against a team that has allowed the most rushing yards to backs this year at 509 and 24 receptions as well, injury concerns or not. I mean….when do you ever get CMC under $9,000 and in a cupcake matchup based on our seasonal data? He was in full pads Wednesday and Philly is 28th in DVOA. We’ll check back in later in the week but if CMC is ready to rock, this isn’t a question in my eyes. It really is that easy. 

Update – CMC is doubtful, which isn’t surprising even if it is a bummer. My view is Chubba Hubbard is viable, but keep an eye on Rodney Smith. He was brought off the practice squad and they used him in the passing game with five targets while playing 37% of the snaps. Hubbard played just 47% so if Smith is back on the squad, I’d pass on both.

WR – If CMC is back, that would make it more difficult to go after Robby Anderson again although we got the usage that we wanted last week. He had double-digit targets and an air yards share of over 40%, which will typically pay off. One player we don’t have concerns about is D.J. Moore, who has just been incredible so far. The ascension into the elite has been super fun to watch and he’s only 10th in routes, 10th in air yards, and 14th in yards per route. He’s the WR4 because he has the second-most receptions, fourth-most yards, three touchdowns, and the eighth-highest target share. I’m sure he will draw Darius Slay and Slay is playing well with a 1.43 FPPT and 57.9% catch rate. Trevon Diggs was playing well going into Week 4 and Moore still totally smashed, I expect no different here. Darnold absolutely loves him and only six players have more targets than Moore.

TE – The Tommy Tremble Gambit did not pan out last week with a resounding zero points. Ian Thomas had three targets but that was in a super negative game script and we’re better off leaving these players alone this week. 

D/ST – Carolina has been knocked down to fourth in total DVOA but they rank first in pressure rate, first in blitz rate, and second in sacks. What’s interesting is the pressure rate could wind up backfiring. Hurts has only been sacked eight times and leads the league in scramble plays. That could send him flying out of the pocket often in this game so I would probably pass on the Panthers defense in this spot. 

Cash Games – Moore

GPP Plays – Darnold, Anderson, Chubba if Smith is not elevated

Titans at Jaguars, O/U of 48.5 (Titans -4)

Titans 

QB – Let’s regroup on this one when we have an update on health. If the Tennessee offense is full steam, there’s little reason to not be interested in Ryan Tannehill. If he doesn’t have his receivers, it would be pretty easy to pass on him and go just about anyone else.

Update – He gets one receiver back which is plenty for this dreadful defense he’s taking on. He’s a play in any format in my opinion but you don’t need to go there for cash.  

RB – Derrick Henry didn’t disappoint last week with 177 total yards and a score for almost 30 DK points. The salary is deserving at this point with the most carries in the NFL and 14 receptions through four games with a total of four touchdowns. After a dud in Week 1, Henry has been above 22 DK in the rest of the season and it’s hard to project Jacksonville being the team to slow him down. You do have to give them some credit for facing the fifth-most attempts so far and yielding just 358 rushing yards to backs but they’ve also let up five touchdowns and sit just average in DVOA against the run. We need to see how the top tier of the position shakes out. If Cook and CMC are in, it becomes way more crowded and I think Henry becomes an elite GPP option. If both those players sit, Henry is likely the only back over $8,000 on DK that would carry much popularity and it becomes a much different landscape. 

WR – As of Wednesday, Julio Jones missed practice (sigh) but A.J. Brown was limited. While we don’t want to put much stock in Wednesday practice reports, Julio missed all of last week so it would have been nice to see him get back on the field. Brown seems like he has a good chance to make it back and if he has the receiving share to himself….ohhhhh baby. He would destroy this Jaguars secondary and I am 100% here for it. My early lean on the situation would be to either have Henry or AJB in my lineups for the majority of them in this spot. Julio has even up a 28.4% air yards share and an 18% target share and if that goes away, Brown would be in line to benefit. The Jags have allowed the third-most yards to receivers and AJB shouldn’t be under $7,000 if he’s alone this week 

Update – AJB is back, insert rocket ship emoji.

TE – This team was missing both of their top two receivers and no tight end exceeded five DK points. I’m not interested in Anthony Firkser and his 10.7% target share on just 49% of the snaps. 

D/ST – I’m pretty much repeating what I said last week – I’m not playing the Tennessee defense at this salary with a total of eight sacks and two takeaways all season. The Jaguars offense has not been good this year but saying the Titans have the upside to pay off a high salary doesn’t fit what we’ve seen on the field yet. 

Cash Plays – Henry, AJB

GPP Plays – Tannehill 

Jaguars 

QB – *whispers* I want to play Trevor Lawerence this week. Do not do that in cash but the Titans are sitting 25th in DVOA against the pass, have allowed the 10th most passing yards, and have an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio allowed. They just made Zach Wilson and the Jets took competent, which says a lot through the early portion of the season. Lawrence has not been great as he sits 28th in yards, 27th in RZ attempts, and 28th in QBR. However, he’s also ninth in air yards and fifth in deep ball completion rate, so he can connect deep down the field. We saw him look fairly comfortable for maybe the first time last Thursday night but this is a spot that can replicate that and Lawerence is cheap enough to take a risk on. 

RB – Hey look, James Robinson continues to be good at football! I know that Carlos Hyde was not active but J-Rob took 18 attempts and ground out 78 yards and scored twice. It was quite surprising to see him only get two targets but Jacksonville actually had a led for a large part of this game. That was something new but we’re looking at back-to-back weeks where Robinson has touched the ball at least 18 times and we should expect that trend to continue. Even Urban Meyer in all of his “wisdom” can’t shut the door on Robinson at this point. Tennessee is in the bottom-eight in DVOA against the run and I would stop short of calling Robinson a cash play just because of the Meyer factor and the risks associated with the Jaguars offense. Robinson should in theory play over 70% of the snaps and handle most of the work including a 14.3% target share. 

WR – At an early guess, Laviska Shenault could be a pretty chalky option in cash games with the loss of D.J. Chark for the season. I do get it to some extent but I will also throw a word of caution out there. Some I’ve seen are hanging on to his 13.0-yard aDOT and thinking his role has been unlocked. I would disagree because of his 95 air yards, 52 of them came in one play when Lawerence was scrambling. His other six targets have a combined 43 air yards, slightly over a 7.0 aDOT. His season number is 6.9 so don’t see what didn’t exactly happen because of one broken play. Chark still leaves a 27.5% share of the air yards and a 16.2% target share behind so there is work to go around. I’m not saying Viska is a bad play, I just don’t know if we should adjust expectations for the role on the field past extra targets. He could be moving out of the slot more as well. Jones had a rough game but still leads in RZ targets and he’ll see more work as well. This game could be a quiet shootout if Tennessee can keep up and there is no corner to worry about on the Tennessee side. 

TE – This is likely going to be my favorite cheap tight end as Dan Arnold played 32% in the Thursday night game despite not being on the team as of Monday morning. His two targets were 9% of the target share that night and he had two practices. Now he has a long week to get more of the offense under his belt and Jacksonville tight ends have a combined target share of about 26%. They are used in this offense without question. Since the Jags traded a top 10 pick to acquire Arnold, I expect him to continue to be a big part of the passing game, especially with the loss of Chark. 

D/ST – They have created one turnover all year and have just five sacks. Tennessee has allowed the most sacks in football at 17 but has also only allowed a 20.7% pressure rate. I’m not buying the Jags can get home although I suppose if the Titans are still short receivers we could revisit this as a punt. 

Cash Plays – Viska, Robinson, Jones

GPP Plays – Arnold (could be fine in cash too I think), Lawerence

Bears at Raiders, O/U of 44 (Raiders -5)

Bears 

QB – I’m almost not concerned if Andy Dalton or Justin Fields starts in this contest. The play calling was much better when Matt Nagy gave it up to Bill Lazor last week and Fields had more chances to show off his skills. That netted him under nine DK points. He only threw the ball 17 times and while the game script was a strong component in that low number, they have a solid if unspectacular defense and will want to lean on the run. Vegas is 16th in DVOA and even with some possible injuries to the secondary doesn’t exactly make me want to run to Fields. There has been a very little flash of upside to this point, even though I think he will be a very good NFL quarterback at some point. 

Update – Fields has been named the starter, which is the right move for the team. I’m still in no rush to get after him at this point. 

RB – It’s funny to me that DK made sure they priced Damien Williams close to David Montgomery in case Montgomery is out (and he is), but they left Mattison at $5,500. Assuming Williams plays in this game, he is a strong value. He will get the bulk of the work and is a capable NFL back, not to mention he was being used in the passing game as it was with 10 targets. Vegas is 18th in DVOA against the run and Williams is too cheap for the role he’ll be given. Khalil Herbert stands to get some work in this one as well but it’s much more of a question mark how much. If he gets 10-12 touches and it’s more of a split with Williams, that could be a bit interesting. We’ll monitor practice reports through the week to see where we end up here. Williams will likely be a chalky option if we don’t get a lot of running back value on the slate. 

WR – There is a small part of me that says Allen Robinson is one of the better GPP plays on the slate since he has been just a disaster to start the season. Trayvon Mullen is questionable, as is Damon Arnette. That would really thin out the corners for Vegas but there aren’t many metrics that look good for Robinson. He’s 60th in air yards, 64th in routes run, 85th in deep targets, and no higher than 55th in receptions or yards. I’m not sure they could look much worse. He only had three targets last week as well (although posting 9.3 DK on three targets is very solid). It would take some guts but at the same time, we’re not getting Robinson at $5,500 very often and Fields should have to throw more than 17 times this week. Don’t forget Darnell Mooney either since he has a 40.5% air yards share and Fields can throw a deep ball. The target share between these two are very close with Mooney edging him by just two. 

TE – The offense played a little better but Cole Kmet still only saw three targets last week and only has 15 on the season. That’s 15% which isn’t terrible but one RZ look at this point is not special, nor is sitting 26th in routes run. That’s simply not enough in a dysfunctional offense to rust and for $200 more, we can just play Arnold. 

D/ST – The Bears lead the league in sacks at 15 so right off the bat, they have to be of some small interest at just $3,200. The Raiders offensive line continues to be a little suspect as they have allowed 12 sacks on the season and the Bears have six takeaways this season as well. I don’t mind them since they sit eighth in DVOA total, but I do have some concerns against the receiving options for Vegas. If they go heavy pass in this game, the Bears force a mistake or two but are vulnerable over the top. 

Cash Plays – Williams 

GPP Plays –Mooney, A-Rob, Fields, D/ST 

Raiders

QB – The slate came out before Derek Carr had a down game and I can’t understand how a quarterback that had three straight weeks over 25 DK was listed at $6,100 on this slate. He’s second in attempts, first in deep attempts (with a developing elite deep threat), first in yards, second in air yards, and being 21st in FPPD doesn’t matter as much when you lead the league in attempts. With the exception of the Rams game, Chicago really hasn’t played a good quarterback to this juncture and Carr has higher upside than it would appear with the matchup on paper, especially at the salary. I don’t think he carries much popularity even at his very affordable salary. 

RB – Josh Jacobs didn’t do a whole lot in a dynamite spot last week but with the news Peyton Barber is out for the next few weeks with turf toe, Jacobs will see all the touches he can handle in this spot. Chicago has been stout against the run so far, sitting 12th in DVOA and allowing 397 yards on the ground. It was interesting to see Detroit gain some solid yards this past week and the Bears aren’t so good that you run away from this spot. The main issue with Jacobs is he’s mostly touchdown or bust. Sure, he had five receptions on Monday but that is beyond a rarity for him and even then…he didn’t exceed 10.7 DK points. If we’re playing a back that has low receiving upside and needs to score to pay off, I’m just playing Damien Harris in the much superior game script and for $400 less. 

Update – Aikem Hicks is out and he’s been one of the better run stoppers in football. That’s a solid boost for Jacobs.

WR – We’re going to talk about the target share in the past three weeks here in a minute, but we can look at both Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow as plays in this offense. If the alignments hold true, Ruggs could find himself on Kindle Vildor and he will victimize him for a long touchdown if that happens. Ruggs has elite speed in the NFL and even with a target share of just 15.5%, his aDOT is 17.8 yards. Vildor is giving up speed and he’s 121st in the league with a 17.6 YPR. All it will take is one time. 

Renfrow continues to roll in the slot over 57% of the time so far and that would leave him away from Jaylon Johnson and facing a lot of Duke Shelley. He’s only been targeted nine times but he’s allowed seven receptions and Renfrow is an important part of this offense. Let’s discuss what it’s looked like lately. 

TE – Is Darren Waller an awesome football player? You better believe it. Am I going to shell out $7,300 for him in this spot? Well…that’s a much more murky answer. Since his explosion in Week 1 on Monday Night Football, he has seen just seven targets in each of the next three games. That’s great, and Waller is first across the board among tight ends in routes, targets, target share, receptions, air yards, and he’s third in points per game. I’m just not sure I feel the need to spend up in this particular spot and if we have strong top-tier running back plays, that makes it even harder to justify. Believe me when I say it doesn’t hold a lot of weight based on who Chicago has played, but they have allowed just the seventh-fewest yards to tight ends. My only point is that since Week 1, Waller has a 19.3% target share and that’s the exact same as Renfrow and only one target ahead of Ruggs. Waller easily leads in RZ targets with four, but his price reflects he’s the clear alpha in the passing game and that hasn’t been the case for three of four games. 

D/ST – It seems like every time I watch the Raiders, they have a strong pass rush and they do have nine sacks. Chicago has given up 16 sacks already and has four turnovers so this really isn’t the worst mix ever. Vegas is just 16th in DVOA so they aren’t bottom of the barrel and even though they have issues, the sacks can lead to turnovers and they’re under $3,000. Let’s see who starts at quarterback. 

Cash Plays – Waller, Renfrow 

GPP Plays – Ruggs, Carr, D/ST 

Browns at Chargers, O/U of 46.5 (Chargers -2)

Browns 

QB – Past the fact he can’t hit open receivers, Baker Mayfield is 24th in RZ attempts, 26th in attempts, 22nd in yards, and 22nd in FPPD. The Browns are in the bottom five in attempts total and even when you try to point towards Baker is fourth in deep ball attempts, he’s 27th in deep-ball completion rate at just 28.6%. Perhaps the Chargers can force the Browns offense off-script but they are fourth in DVOA against the pass and Baker looks very unappealing all the way around. 

RB – It seems crazy to say (and maybe changes when Jarvis Landry comes back) but Kareem Hunt sure seems to be the safer option of Hunt or Nick Chubb. Hunt has 11 targets over the past two games and his target share is up to 13.6% while he’s trailing 69-43 in carries. Chubb is certainly the preferred option in the RZ by carries at a 16-8 edge, but it’s interesting to note that when the offense moves to inside the five-yard line, it’s only a 4-3 split for Chubb. That kind of continues to be an issue because Chubb has now gone scoreless since Week 2 and even with a touchdown, he’s been over 17 DK points just once this season. The Chargers have been a run funnel so far for the most part and still rank 25th in DVOA against the run. Just know that the Browns are not going to stop using a split backfield anytime soon. Since Chubb only has four targets on the season and is more expensive, Hunt continues to make more sense at the salary in my eyes. 

WR – I’m still not over the Odell Beckham game because it should have been massive. Beckham was open all game long and Baker just couldn’t get the job done. Since he has come back, Beckham has owned a 26.7% target share and a massive 47% air yards share. However, I’m not as keen on him this week with the secondary that the Chargers boast. They have corners like Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr. along with a safety like Derwin James. Chris Harris could be back as well which would be a big boost. With so many options to take away the clear-cut number one, I’ll pass on Beckham this week. The matchups are just the polar opposite. 

TE – Austin Hooper is a fine option but it’s hard to get excited about much more than that. Baker had a terrible game on Sunday and Hooper suffered as well, with just one catch on five targets. Hooper is up to a 14.8% target share but is a whopping 37th in routes run. The positive spin to that is he’s fourth in target rate at 31.4% but this also isn’t exactly the leading passing offense in the league. Hooper is just 21st in receptions so even though some metrics look great, it’s more because of the low volume of the passing game in general as Cleveland is 28th in attempts per game. 

D/ST – The Browns are very cheap for what they have put on the field so far, ranking third in total DVOA, are fourth in pressure rate, have 14 sacks, and three turnovers. Now, the turnovers aren’t great but everything else is. The issue is the Chargers have only given up seven sacks on the season and have just four giveaways. I don’t love going against this skilled of an offense, but Cleveland is playing well and should still be over $3,000. 

Cash Plays – Hunt

GPP Plays – Chubb, OBJ, Hooper, D/ST 

Chargers 

QB – I was a little surprised to see Justin Herbert as only the QB14 on the year because it seems like he’s been so much better than that. Herbert is fourth in attempts, second in RZ attempts, eighth in yards, but he’s only 19th in FPPD. Perhaps it’s been more the eye test because Herbert is second in catchable pass rate and while this isn’t the easiest matchup ever, Cleveland is just 13th in DVOA against the pass. It’s a difficult offense to contain and as long as he’s under $7,000, I’m on board. The only small nitpick is there’s no rushing potential and when you get to this salary, you need the 300-yard bonus or three touchdowns to be very happy. 

RB – Austin Ekeler is coming off a monster game against the Raiders with two scores and well over 140 scrimmage yards. Cleveland has been good against the run at fourth in DVOA and allowing just the fifth-fewest rushing yards to the position. Having said that, Ekeler is attached to a great offense and has dual-threat chops as one of the better receiving backs in the league. I will never tell you don’t play him, even if we likely have much higher priorities in cash games this week. 

WR – This should be a fun matchup in real football as both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams look to bounce back from a terrible game each on Monday night. Williams would stand to get more of Denzel Ward who has allowed 14 receptions on 21 targets this year for a 1.80 FPPT and Allen will face a lot of the slot corner in Troy Hill. He’s only been targeted six times so far and is under 40 yards allowed. Allen has the clear target lead at 44-35 but Williams has the edge in aDOT at 10.2 against 8.4 and has more EZ targets at 5-3. Allen is still getting heavily targeted in the RZ as well though with eight so for right now, I’ll generally play the cheaper player. That’s Allen by a good bit and he avoids Ward more so it’s a relatively easy call. 

TE – I didn’t expect to see Jared Cook at 10th in receptions, 11th in yards, and eighth in routes run at this point of the season. he’s seen at least five targets in three of four games and should have had at least 50 yards or a touchdown in three of four as well, if not for a weird penalty in the Dallas game. Sitting third in targets in a Herbert-led offense is not a bad thing and Cook’s scary remains super reasonable. With so much focus on stopping the other components of this offense, Cook has had some strong opportunities and he’s third in both RZ and EZ targets on the season. For this salary, that is more than acceptable and the floor is about as stable as we can get. 

D/ST – I honestly can’t get there. The Browns might be the last team I’d want to face when you can’t stop the run and even though LA had some success against the Raiders, this is not the same style of the run game. Cleveland is going to punt them into submission and I don’t believe they let Baker screw his one up. The Chargers also only have three turnovers forced and have just nine sacks. 

Cash Plays – Ekeler, Allen, Herbert 

GPP Plays – Williams, Cook 

49ers at Cardinals, O/U of 49.5 (Cardinals -5.5)

49ers 

QB – If Trey Lance starts this week, you just lock him into cash and you build from there. Listen, he’s going to make mistakes and likely turn the ball over once or twice, and he may not be the most efficient quarterback ever in this game. Arizona is third in DVOA and has only allowed 955 yards through the air. You know what? Almost none of that matters. Lance rushed for 41 yards and a two-point conversion in just one half of football last week. His legs are an absolute difference-maker and he’s a threat to record a 100-yard rushing game. Whatever passing production you get from that point on is gravy. Even if you go conservative and say he only passes for 200 yards and one score, that’s 12 DK. Count in two turnovers and that knocks him down to 10 DK points. If he rushes for just 50 yards, you’re right around 15 DK which is plenty at the salary in cash games. The ceiling is wildly higher than that in a shootout script and I would be overweight in GPP almost certainly this week. 

Update – Lance is going to start but I’m going to backtrack my stance in being overweight in GPP. I allowed myself to get a little giddy because I’ve loved Lance and the fit in San Francisco since draft night. He looked a little rough and while I am more than comfortable to play him in cash, I’ll go with others in GPP in case he just scores 15-18 DK.

RB – Trey Sermon started to look a lot better this week and rolled up 89 yards rushing but I can’t help but think Elijah Mitchell is still the man in this backfield when he’s healthy. The team released backs from the practice squad which makes you think Mitchell is coming back. Whoever is the back gets a nice boost if Lance starts because all the RPO action in this offense is so much more effective than it is when Jimmy G is starting. Arizona is just 16th in DVOA against the run and the 49ers run game could really turn lethal with Lance. Let’s see if Mitchell can make it back for this one. 

WR – I looked like Brandon Aiyuk turned the corner in Week 3 and played over 80% of the snaps but he fell under 70% in Week 4 and only saw three targets. He only has 11 on the season and six came in one single game. He saw Deebo Samuel dominate again with a 30.7% target share and a 34.2% air yards share. Even if Lance is the starter, this offense knows how to get the ball in Deebo’s hands and I wouldn’t be that worried. Samuel is ninth in air yards share and sixth in target rate across all receivers, along with leading the league in yards. He’s accurately priced and mostly keeps to the outside, where he should find Byron Murphy. He has only allowed 13 receptions on 26 targets for a 89.4 passer rating, but the YPR is also 16.7. Deebo should be able to get behind the defense at least once or twice in this one and is very stackable. 

Update – Murphy is out for the Cardinals, which is a solid boost for Deebo and the passing game.

TE – It hasn’t fully translated but George Kittle is at least getting targets, with 20 over the past two weeks. It seems that game script has plenty to do with that because both those games have been losses and Kittle still isn’t inside the top 10 in routes run. He’s yet to find the paint but is fifth in receptions and fourth in yards in parts because his target rate is 29.6%. Even with the questionable quarterback play, Kittle is under $6,000 and the 49ers almost surely have to put up some points in this game. He still has zero RZ targets and that can only go on for so long. 

Update – Kittle is now listed as doubtful, which is less than ideal for Lance as well. Ross Dwelley is the backup but I’m playing Darnold for $200 more.

D/ST – I will not play defenses against the Cardinals until further notice. 

Cash Plays – Lance, Mitchell, Deebo

GPP Plays – Sermon

Cardinals 

QB – The 49ers are 18th in DVOA against the pass and have given up seven touchdowns to just one interception so far. Kyler Murray is the front runner for MVP at this point at the sportsbooks and is third in yards, second in yards per attempt, third in FPPD, and is top five among quarterbacks in rushing stats that matter. With no Mahomes on the slate, he’s the easy spend-up if you go that route and remains one of the safer options among all fantasy players. 

RB – Chase Edmonds always looks so appealing to play and there is some truth to it since he sits third in targets among all players on the Cardinals. He’s tied for third in targets among all running backs, which is a very valuable role when playing for one of the best offenses in football. What can be hard to square up is the fact that James Conner is seventh among backs in RZ carries at 14 and he’s cashed in the past two weeks with a total of four touchdowns. There are two factors to look at before getting excited for Conner in my eyes. The first is he’s had 34 of his 53 carries in the two games that have been blowouts. That suggests you better nail the game script because in the other two games that were more competitive, he only had a total of 20 touches and he’s wildly expensive for that. Second, living on two touchdown games at $5,600 seems awfully dangerous. I don’t think you should be running to play either exactly, but I’m taking Edmonds at the salaries and at least getting some style of floor. Edmonds has yet to score but has not dipped below 12.5 DK points. 

Update – Edmonds is questionable and if he’s out, Conner becomes a strong value.

WR – I’m not sure there is a more tilting receiving corps to figure out than this one. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and even Rondale Moore all have at least 18 targets this year. Oh, and then you have Edmonds and we still have a tight end to go. When we play this game for just one week, that is really not what we want to hear. With Hopkins priced like a WR1, I can’t justify paying for him right now with just a 19.4% target share and an air yards share of 26.1%. Let’s be honest, why do that when Green and Kirk have almost the exact same metrics? Green and Kirk move around as well with Kirk in the slot about half the time and Green in there over 20%. That means the matchups aren’t set in stone but if K’Waun Williams is out, Green could see a bunch of Dre Kirkpatrick. That would be an advantage for Green and Kirk would square off against Deommodore Lenoir to some extent. It’s still tough to worry about individual matchups when they move around so much. Given the salaries, I’d play Green ahead of Kirk and Hopkins would be third. I would go Justin Jefferson for $100 more almost every time. 

Update – Williams is out for the 49ers.

TE – Maxx Williams is in the same conversation as the rest of the pass-catchers in that his 12.4% target share looks relatively appealing, as does the 12th most receptions and yards. However, he only has one RZ target and the Cards with Kyler are spreading the ball around to everyone. No player is taking control of the passing game, which means it’s playing roulette trying to figure out who will have the big game this week. Williams is only 28th in routes run, which means he’s not available a whole lot but he is making the most of his chances at a 25.4% target rate. He’s very volatile and you need to look no further than Week 3 to see where the floor is with under five DK points on just three targets. 

D/ST – I actually would get this play. Even if Lance starts, he made some pretty tough plays that could have resulted in turnovers. The Cards are living on turnovers with nine forced because after Week 1, they haven’t got to the quarterback hardly at all. Arizona is sixth in total DVOA and the quarterback situation is in flux for the 49ers. I still prefer Minnesota but the Cards could get a pick-six relatively easily in this spot. 

Cash Plays – Kyler 

GPP Plays – Edmonds, Green, Kirk, Nuk, Williams 

Giants at Cowboys, O/U 52.5 (Cowboys -7)

Giants 

QB – Daniel Jones is…playing well? That seems like something that is wrong but he’s honestly been fairly solid as he’s seventh in yards, 10th in yards per attempt, 10th in FPPD, sixth in points per game, and he’s added the third-most rushing yards among quarterbacks as well. On top of all of that, he has committed only two turnovers which have always been a large issue. Now, there are warning signs like he’s only thrown four touchdowns to 10 passes that could have been intercepted and he’s still 26th in completion rate when pressured, so he’s been lucky. Dallas leads the league in takeaways so this could be a spot where things level out for Jones and I’m not willing to play him on the road. 

RB – It was a little bit surprising to see Saquon Barkley only record 18 touches last week with the Giants missing multiple key players on their offense. He made it work with a total of 126 scrimmage yards and two scores and really, that’s why you play him for. We don’t want Saquon to just get 20-22 carries up the gut, just like we talked about with Kamara. You have to let Saquon do work in space in the passing game and he has 11 receptions in the past two games combined. Dallas has been excellent on the ground with just 218 yards rushing allowed and they sit in the top half of the league in DVOA against the run. However, they struggle defending backs in the passing game. They have allowed the third-most yards and the most receptions, including 5/48 to some dude named Rodney Smith who was on the practice squad for the Panthers last week before Sunday. Saquon is back as a home run threat on the ground and he could come close to 2x on receiving work alone. 

WR – This section will need an update. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both missed practice on Wednesday, which would open up some potential for Kadarius Toney and maybe even John Ross. Toney would be the higher priority with a snap rate of almost 78% and he led the team in targets with nine. He actually looked strong with the ball in his hands and was a strong complement to Kenny Golladay. He would face off against Trevon Diggs but we saw last week Diggs is not a true shut down corner quite yet. I’d be much more inclined to play both players if we’re still missing Slayton and Shepard this week. 

Update – Toney and Ross are much more viable as Shepard and Slayton remain out. With Golladay getting Diggs, Toney and Ross are far easier plays. I don’t fully expect Golladay to get stonewalled, but Toney especially is interesting to me. He has been talked up all week by the coaching staff and they said he needs the ball more even when injuries are not a concern any longer.

TE – The good news is in his two games back from injury, Evan Engram has been targeted 12 times and he’s run 55 routes. The bad news is he’s turned seven receptions into just 48 yards, which is not super appealing with just one RZ target. If Shepard and Slayton make it back and Toney remains involved, it’s hard to have any confidence in this pick and we can find other directions. 

D/ST – The Cowboys have multiple ways to beat you, have only given up six sacks, only have three giveaways, and the Giants are sitting 27th in total DVOA. I can’t build the case here. 

Cash Plays – Saquon, Toney, Jones

GPP Plays – Ross, Engram

Cowboys 

QB – Dak Prescott has been a little hard to peg so far this year, at least fantasy-wise. He’s playing what is likely his best football ever with a passer rating of 116.9 and a completion rate over 75% but he hasn’t had to put the gas pedal to the floor past Week 1. Dak has not thrown more than 27 passes in the past three weeks and he’s sort of living on touchdowns with seven in the past two games. He’s only 20th in attempts and 13th in FPPD, not exactly the greatest marriage for fantasy purposes. New York is just 24th against the pass but Dallas has shown they will beat you in whichever way you prefer. The past three weeks it’s been more on the ground and if Dallas gets out in front with a much better than expected defense, Dak could sit under 30 attempts again. 

RB – I’ve been stumping for Ezekiel Elliott the past couple of weeks and the man has paid off with 17+ DK in three weeks straight and is suddenly fourth in the league in rushing yards, tied for the running back lead in rushing touchdowns, and is handling 61% of the running back attempts on the season. He’s also sixth in attempts so that helps mitigate the fact he only has 11 targets on the season. The Giants are ninth in yards allowed to backs this year and sit in the bottom 12 in DVOA. Now, you can argue that he’s no different than Chubb for Cleveland and you’re not far off. However, he is more involved in the passing game and his RZ attempt lead is 15-5, larger than Chubb as well. For whatever reason, I feel far better playing Zeke than I do Chubb. 

WR – Maybe the field is freaked out over the last couple of weeks for CeeDee Lamb considering he hasn’t recorded more than 9.5 DK in the past two weeks on a combined nine targets. However, the last two games weren’t the most competitive and this one could be with more attempts coming from Dallas. Lamb is just 41st in routes, 24th in receptions, 44th in yards per reception, and 22nd in yards. That is far from ideal but it’s really not in the best interest of Dallas to let Lamb and Amari Cooper not be involved for much longer like this. Lamb has only played in the slot 22% of the time and he would likely face Adoree’ Jackson but he’s only allowed a 1.16 FPPT so far. James Bradberry has not fared well this year with a 2.24 FPPT and a 131.8 passer rating. My only hesitation with Cooper is the hammy injury that bugged him last week but let’s see how that goes the rest of the week. 

Update – Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out, boosting the passing game for the Cowboys.

TE – The injury to Gallup duly noted, Dalton Schultz has been quite good for Dallas and fantasy so far. He has a 17.6% target share on the season and is tied for second in RZ targets with three. Some of his metrics look a little questionable as he’s only 26th in routes run and only has one deep target, but the 34.8% target rate is third among tight ends and he’s inside the top six in receptions, yards, touchdowns, YAC, and points per game. That’s an awful lot and you wonder if, in his third season, things are just clicking a little bit more for Schultz. He’s on the field for over 72% of the snaps and that’s never a bad thing and the salary is more than acceptable. If you don’t like Gesicki, Schultz is right there and the Giants already lead the league in touchdowns allowed against tight ends. 

D/ST – It needs to be noted that the Giants only have three turnovers on the season, a large shift for that offense. Still, Dallas is second in takeaways despite a pressure rate of just 22.2%. Daniel Jones has only taken eight sacks and has a pressure rate of just 21%, neither of which is all that bad. THey’re cheap and I’m fine with it and Dallas is 10th in DVOA on the young season. 

Cash Plays – Zeke

GPP Plays – Dak, Lamb, Cooper, Schultz 

Cash Core 4

Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, Trey Lance, Alexander Mattison

Note – I’m planning on Cook not playing. If Dalvin Cook is ACTIVE, Damien Williams slides in over Mattison.

GPP Core 4 

Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Kadarius Toney, Ezekiel Elliott

Stacks

Bengals/Packers – Burrow, Higgins, Chase, Boyd – Run Backs – Adams, Cobb, Jones, Rodgers

Titans/Jaguars – Henry, Brown, Tannehill – Run Backs – Lawerence (QB of choice), Jones, Arnold, Viska, J-Rob

Giants/Cowboys – Toney, Saquon, Jones, Golladay, Ross – Run Backs – Zeke, Lamb, Cooper, Schultz, Dak

Eagles/Panthers – Moore, Anderson, Darnold, possibly Chubba – Run Backs – Smith, Hurts, Ertz, Gainwell

49ers/Cardinals – Kyler, Conner if Edmonds is out, Green, Kirk, Nuk –Run Backs – Lance, Deebo, Mitchell

Vikings/Lions – Jefferson, Thielen, RB, Cousins Run Backs – Swift, Hockenson if active

Bucs/Dolphins – Brady, Godwin, AB, Fournette, Evans – Run Backs – Gesicki, Waddle, Parker

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport 

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

We are back in action for Week 4 and hopefully, you were able to survive in cash despite the Justin Fields grenade. It wasn’t easy but it was possible and part of that was the ability to late swap to Alexander Mattison. Always remember to leave your later player in the flex spot to give yourself the best chance! Let’s get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4 and figure out what paths to take for the green screens this week! 

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

Texans at Bills, O/U of 47 (Bills -16)

Texans 

QB – I didn’t think Davis Mills played that terrible on Thursday night but that only resulted in 10.7 DK points and this spot is no fun. Buffalo is second in DVOA in total and against the pass so even with a significantly negative game script, I just can’t see going here on a full slate. Mills has one talented receiver and that’s about it. I get that $4,900 is tempting but there’s very little trust there 

RB – We say all the time to not play Houston running backs and that remains the case. Buffalo has been a very difficult defense to play against and we’re still seeing a split backfield. Mark Ingram leads with 46 carries but don’t forget, he had 28 in Week 1. Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson have combined for 31 carries while no back has a target share over 6.9%. On a full slate, playing a back with no passing game upside as 17 point underdogs doesn’t seem to be the best path to take. 

WR – I’m not willing to go back to the Anthony Miller since it’s not a showdown slate so the only player worth considering is Brandin Cooks. The man is just unstoppable no matter who the quarterback is this season or any other season. He has the number one air yards share in the NFL at 57.8%, he’s third in receptions, third in yards, and second in yard per route. He’s been one of the most underrated receivers for years and is well worth the price. I will say that he will likely see plenty of Tre White who has only allowed a 1.3 FPP and a passer rating of just 77.8. I don’t exactly worry about it because the Texans don’t have many other reliable options. Cooks will see his targets no matter what. 

Update – I would still only play Cooks but the Buffalo secondary isn’t super healthy. Safety Jordan Poyer is out and corner Taron Johnson is questionable but was a DNP Thursday and Friday. Life could be worse for Cooks and his massive target share.

TE – With both Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown playing over 60% of the snaps and splitting 15 targets so far, we can’t use either. They are very cheap but we do have a punt special later on that I would “trust” more and I’m not going with a rookie quarterback in Buffalo and splitting work. 

D/ST – I will not be playing a defense that is basically a 17 point underdog. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Cooks 

Bills 

QB – Our man Jared has been on this as well, but we knew the big game was coming and he blew up this past week. Allen is fourth in attempts, fifth in air yards, third in RZ attempts, and third in deep attempts all while sitting first in RZ rush attempts as well. He’s kicked in 88 rushing yards and Houston being a surprising seventh in DVOA against the pass makes no never mind to me. They have allowed the 10th most passing yards with a 4:4 TD:INT ratio but Allen with a full complement of weapons is too much to ignore. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him very low in popularity since he sits right between Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray, who is in the game of the week most likely. 

RB – Zack Moss will get the attention from the Buffalo backfield but I remain a little bit skeptical. I grant you that Moss played a lot more snaps this week but the carries were still close with Moss holding a 13-11 edge there and a 3-2 edge in targets. However, just last week he didn’t see a 30% snap share and was inactive Week 1. Now, perhaps Moss got the message and has just simply raised his level of play and will continue to get over 15 touches in a high-powered offense. If that’s the case, he’s too cheap. However, Devin Singletary still had a lot of touches as well and if Moss doesn’t get a touchdown, you’re talking about 10 DK. A split backfield is going to be volatile to predict week to week and this game projects to get out of hand fast. 

WR – Stefon Diggs hasn’t had one of those games so far, but all the metrics point to it happening soon. Houston got smoked by D.J. Moore last week and this could be the week for Diggs. He’s first in air yards, eighth in air yards share, third in deep targets, and second in unrealized air yards at 271. In fairness to Diggs, only 68.8% of his targets have been catchable and if you play a lot in GPP, you have to keep going to the well. 

Manny Sanders and Cole Beasley could be a little popular, but just remember their production is coming while Diggs is not having great games yet. I certainly prefer Sanders since he’s still just $4,900 and has the more explosive role in the offense. He’s 15th in routes run and eighth in air yards, which makes his production volatile but the price is certainly right. Beasley is far more the cash-style play, living in the slot and having a 5.6 aDOT. He’s the safety valve in the offense along with the tight ends and backs and with the Bills being a top-five passing offense in volume, the work is certainly there week-to-week. Houston could also be without corner Terrance Mitchell and safety Justin Reid, which would just raise the ceiling of everyone involved. 

TE – Could we be seeing a mini breakout for Dawson Knox? It’s not impossible and he’s actually exceeded eight DK points in each contest so far. Carving out a 9.9% target share in this offense isn’t all that bad and it’s not like he’s seeing any type of special coverage with the other weapons around him. Knox is 11th in routes run and has 10 receptions already. I’m not trying to confuse him with reliable, but he’s also the TE8 right now and he’s barely over $3,500. Houston has also allowed the third-most receptions to the position thus far despite not playing one of the elite options in the league. 

D/ST – If I wanted to afford them, it would be great. Buffalo has generated six takeaways, nine sacks, and the second-most pressures in football. Compound that with seeing Houston give up over a 25% pressure rate and it’s a dynamite spot. The price tag will keep me out of the running for Buffalo’s defense on this slate as a rarely pay-up, even more so for the top salary. 

Cash Plays – Allen, Beasley, Knox

GPP Plays – Diggs, Sanders, Moss, D/ST 

Lions at Bears, O/U of 42 (Bears -3)

Lions

QB – Jared Goff came back down to Earth a little last week and that’s not the largest surprise ever. It says quite a bit that he’s sixth in attempts but 13th in yards and 26th in air yards. That’s not exactly what we’re looking for and he’s 25th in FPDB. Now we add the fact that Chicago is ninth in DVOA against the pass and is 13th in passing yards allowed. Past the matchup with the Rams, the Bears have only allowed two other passing touchdowns. It’s one thing to be interested in a couple of the skill players on the offense, but Goff is more than likely to end up around 16 DK points than anything else. 

RB – We’re three weeks into the season and I’m here to publicly apologize to D’Andre Swift. Before the season started, I wanted nothing to do with him and thought he’d be a huge bust at his ADP. I couldn’t have been more off base. Even though three weeks, I’ve played him one time I believe. That streak ends this week. The snaps and carries might be closer than we want with Jamaal Williams at 33-28 and Williams still sees the field at a 40% clip but Swift has eight RZ rushes and is second among running backs with 24 total targets. Only Najee Harris from Pittsburgh is higher and that’s only because he recorded 19 last week. Swift recorded 21 touches last week and turned them into 23.7 DK points. Snap rate doesn’t matter if you’re getting that many touches and lead your team in target share at 21%. The Bears have uncharacteristically allowed over 300 rushing yards to backs already and Swift is underpriced on DK where the scoring is full PPR. 

WR – The only two that we can look at here are Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond and I’m not sure that says a whole lot. Both players are under a 14% target share on the season and have three RZ targets combined. There’s a reason Swift has so many targets (outside of his talent) and neither player is over 136 receiving yards. I don’t believe Chicago feels the need to shadow with Jaylon Johnson but Cephus has only been in the slot about 7% of the time so he likely draws the brunt of Johnson. He’s only allowed six receptions on 16 targets and a 0.87 FPPT through three games and I’m not messing with that. Raymond has been in the slot about 25% of the time and would draw the much softer coverage. He’s cheap enough to consider for GPP but nothing more. 

TE – I did not expect that style of game from T.J. Hockenson as he was only targeted two times and managed 10 yards. He is still second in routes among tight ends, fifth in snaps, sixth in air yards and sixth in target share at 17.8%. Additionally, even after a dud, he’s third in receptions and sixth yards at the position. All of this is to say that bad games are going to happen but you shouldn’t view Hock any differently. The Bears have yet to allow 100 total yards to the position and it’s not the greatest matchup. I’ll likely go elsewhere but it has little to do with last week. 

D/ST – I honestly don’t hate this punt. Look, Detroit is not a good defense by about any measure. They have the sixth-fewest pressures but they do have eight sacks and we’ve outlined plenty of times the issues along the offensive line for Chicago and the offense in general. Last week saw Fields under pressure over 50% of the time. The three turnovers are nothing special but at such a low salary, we could do worse and just hope they get us 5-6 points. 

Cash Plays – Swift, Hockenson, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Raymond, Goff 

Bears 

QB – Just run away. Coach Matt Nagy has said that all three players are under consideration to start and I will have nothing to do with this circus act. I’m not here to tell you Justin Fields played well last week, but I’m not sure what you expect when your quarterback is getting pressured 55% of the time and no adjustments are made through the game. Detroit is not a good defense, but Nagy is not a good coach. If Andy Dalton plays, I could potentially get on board but it’s not a fun idea. 

Update – The starter will be a game time decision and I stand firm in the fact I don’t want to go here, but if Dalton starts I would be more inclined to play Monty or A-Rob in GPP. The industry (understandably) wants nothing to do with this offense so a player like Monty could wind up being a super strong GPP play.

RB – The theme with Chicago is going to continue because I just can’t possibly trust Matt Nagy’s “offense”. When it gets ripped to shreds by an ex-player (Dan Orlovsky) who was on an 0-16 NFL team as the worst game plan he’s ever seen, I’m paying attention. David Montgomery is the workhorse in this offense but after a strong start to the campaign, he’s not been over 11 DK points in part due to the dysfunction of the Bears all around. In theory, a player like Fields should have helped open up running lanes for Monty and made life easier. In reality, Nagy had the offense run five-man protections on the majority of their dropbacks and Cleveland feasted. This would check the box as a get-right spot because the Lions’ defense is not good but even a $5,800, Montgomery is only GPP for me and I would find the extra $400 for Swift on the other side of the game. 

WR – You know another way I can tell that a coach isn’t doing his job? Allen Robinson has 10 receptions for 86 yards TOTAL through three games. That is beyond egregious. He’s almost never below $6,000 and it’s hard to pass that price but my goodness is the trust level low. A-Rob is 63rd in air yards, 80th in yards per route, and 95th in yards per target. The plus side is he does still have a 25.3% target share and he has four RZ targets as well. With Detroit missing their top two corners right now, this should be a cakewalk matchup for Robinson. I can’t mess with Darnell Mooney with the offense in tatters, as it can’t even support Robinson at this juncture. 

TE – I remain steadfast that I’m not playing Bears right now, including Cole Kmet unless Andy Dalton is back. Dalton targets him seven times in Week 1 but overall, Kmet is 22nd in routes, 33rd in yards, and 12th in target share. There’s not a lot of meat on the bone, even in a great matchup. Detroit has allowed the third-most yards against the position so maybe you could twist my arm with Dalton. 

D/ST – Slightly expensive but they do at least have nine sacks and four turnovers on the season, and Detroit is allowing a 21.6% pressure rate on Goff. We know he can make mistakes in a hurry if the opposition gets home, so the potential for a defensive score is there. 

Cash Plays – D/ST

GPP Plays – Monty, A-Rob

Titans at Jets, O/U of 44 (Titans -7)

Titans 

QB – I’m not likely to go with the passing game on this team but Ryan Tannehill is far from a bad play. It has been a disappointing start for him to a large extent, sitting 20th in pass yards, 14th in air yards, and 23rd in FPDB. However, he is seventh in RZ attempts to this point of the year and still threw three touchdowns last week even though he lost one of his receivers very early. We’ve talked about the Jets being better than we thought as they only rank 18thin DVOA against the pass. They have also only allowed 700 passing yards so the metrics don’t say it’s a crazy good spot for Tannehill, but he’s still solid. 

RB – So this is just a total smash spot for Derrick Henry, who has more receptions than Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott coming into the week. That is NOT a sentence I figured on typing in Week 4 but that’s the reality. There’s now a bit more of a floor to Henry with a new offensive coordinator and the Titans could be without receiver A.J. Brown this week as well. The Jets are averaging almost 100 yards per game allowed on the ground so far and have allowed four rushing scores. I will say that’s not as bad as the Jets were pegged coming into the season and the 13th ranked DVOA against the run is stronger than we thought as well. Henry is still virtually assured 25-28 touches with a ceiling for more and there is even more safety than ever before with a small receiving floor. If the Tennessee defense forces a turnover or two, we could see Henry hit the paint three times this week. 

WR – We need to circle back at the end of the week. A.J. Brown is almost certain to miss this week but Julio Jones is in some danger of missing as well as he nurses a leg injury. If they are both out, we can turn to Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as potential salary savers. We do need to know the status of Brown and Julio and realistically, that just means Henry is getting 40 touches. 

Update – Goodness, the receiver room is hurt. Brown and Julio are both out, so now we can look at the pivots. For me, last week is what I want to take a look at. Brown was down early at 11% of the snaps and Julio only played 50% so I think that’s probably the best sample to all about. Westbrook-Ikhine led in snaps at 77.9% and had four targets while Chester Rogers played 41% and had two targets. The former also led in RZ targets at 2-1 and went 4/53/1 so I think he is the man we want in this situation. He would likely see some of Bryce Hall who has allowed a 1.63 FPPT through six targets. As much as Henry will carry this offense, they have to pass the ball a little bit and the savings make him less of a risk with plenty of upside. The Jets are also without safety Marcus Maye so their defense will suffer there as well.

TE – There is no right end worth fantasy consideration since even with Brown out most of last week, nobody stepped up in the passing game.

D/ST – To paraphrase what I told Brian and Ghost in our chat, I wouldn’t pay $3,900 for the Titans if they played Western San Jose State School of Agriculture and Technology. I’m aware of the Jets’ offensive issues and the fact they’ve allowed the most sacks on the year but the salary is a non-starter for me. If they were $2,900, they’d be my favorite defense. 

Update – Bud Dupree is out and that’s a big component to the pass rush, so it should in theory help the Jets.

Cash Plays – Henry, Westbrook-Ikhine

GPP Plays – Rogers

Jets 

QB – It’s only Week 4 but Zach Wilson is ranked 35th in FPDB. There are only 32 franchises in the NFL. He’s only thrown a catchable pass 45.7% of the time and is sitting 31st in true completion rate and is only 15th in attempts. The volume can’t make up for the horrid inefficiency so even though Tennessee is only 22nd in DVOA against the pass, I’m not ready to take the chance here. He could straight up kill your entire lineup. 

RB – If there was a time to try and play a Jets running back, it could be against the Titans and their 29th ranked DVOA against the run. I’m not saying I want to, but Michael Carter appears to be taking over with back-to-back weeks of double-digit touches. Carter had 11 and nine carries in the past two weeks, easily the most of any Jets back. There hasn’t been much production to speak of but the Patriots and Broncos defense are both worlds better than the Titans unit. Even against New England, Carter was able to generate 5.4 yards per carry so while it’s a thin play, I could see it. You’re just banking on Tennessee being that bad on the defensive side of the ball. There’s not a ton of cheap backs that I love so Carter would certainly make the GPP pool in lineups that I’m spending on the studs.

WR – Somebody say something about a Corey Davis revenge game? Kidding aside, Davis leads the Jets with 22 targets and has two EZ targets in the early season. The road has been tough the past two weeks but in honesty, the defenses faced have to be noted here. The Jets have faced three of the top eight defenses in total DVOAs so far and Davis paid off in Week 1 with two touchdowns. Now they finally get some relief as the Titans have allowed the third-most yards to receivers and six touchdowns, tied for the second-most. Janoris Jenkins and Kristian Fulton have both allowed at least a 1.42 FPPT and Jenkins especially has been terrible with an 80% catch rate and 117 passer rating allowed. If Jamison Crowder makes it back, you could potentially go that route since he should roll into the slot and make life easier on Wilson. There is a reason Braxton Berrios is right behind Davis in targets and has a 72.4% slot rate. We’ll see who’s healthy come Friday with Crowder and Elijah Moore both questionable. 

Update – Moore is out and Crowder looks like he’ll make his season debut, which makes him a fine GPP target but I’d be a little loathe to play him in cash.

TE – The only chance I will even consider this is if Tyler Kroft misses the game. Perhaps in that scenario, Ryan Griffin enters the fray, but if they are both active they just bit into the meager production they do have. 

D/ST – Derrick Henry might run for 400 yards, but if Brown and Julio are both out, you can make the case to punt. The Jets are 16th in DVOA overall and have six sacks. They do only have two turnovers but the price is still appealing. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Davis, Carter, Crowder

Chiefs at Eagles, O/U of 54 (Chiefs -7)

Chiefs 

QB – Philly is actually 13th in DVOA against the pass, which is strong for them in recent years but I’m not sweating that in the least with Patrick Mahomes. He has the second-most passing touchdowns, sits third in deep attempts, sixth in yards, and that’s all on just the 11th most attempts so far. When the only bad thing I can say about him is he’s thrown an interception per game, we’re pretty set. I believe he and one of his receiving options is one of the better stacking options on the entire slate, but we’ll get there. 

RB – Well, it looks like we’re back for another ride on the Clyde Edwards-Helaire Experience. After being very popular last week at $4,800 and scoring 20 DK, I would imagine the field will go right back to the well since he’s only $5,400 this week. Over the past couple of seasons, Philly has normally been a defense we avoided with running backs but not this year. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs and sit 22nd in DVOA. I sure wish CEH was getting more targets (only five on the entire season) but he still touched the ball 19 times last week. At that salary, it’s hard to turn away and he was actually chunking yards for the first time all year at a 5.9 YPC. This game is tied for the highest O/U and the Chiefs are seven-point favorites, even on the road. If nothing else, he’s likely a sample for cash games. 

WR – I’m sure Philly will try to stick Darius Slay on Tyreek Hill as much as they can since Slay can run with a 4.3 40-yard dash and he’s only allowed a 53.8% catch rate. However, he doesn’t travel into the slot and Hill has been in the slot at a 36.9% rate. Despite his past two sub-par starts, everything still looks good for him. He’s still third in air yards, he’s third in deep targets, the target share is over 25%, and the yards run per route is 16th. There is really nothing to fear with Hill, although I do prefer his running mate in this spot. 

Mecole Hardman doesn’t look nearly as pretty with just a 14.7% target share and only two deep targets, not to mention sitting 69th in air yards. If he’s not getting consistent deep balls, it’s going to be hard to get behind him as a play. The only reason we could be looking that route is if Slay is drawing Tyreek, Hardman would likely see Steven Nelson who has gotten scorched so far with a 2.27 FPPT, 135.1 passer rating, and a catch rate of almost 77%. 

TE – This is far from a hot take, but the Mahomes/Travis Kelce stack is among my favorite on the slate on the elite end of things. The Eagles linebackers are going to get positively shredded and they’ve already given up 20 receptions and two touchdowns along with 170 yards. Kelce just keeps on ticking with the fourth-most routes, the third-most air yards, second-highest target share, and he sits first in yards and receptions. His 24 DK points per game are more than every running back but Henry and tops all receivers except for Cooper Kupp on this particular slate. When we say he’s worth playing two tight ends, that’s what we’re talking about. 

D/ST – KC is dead last in DVOA, has just four sacks, and four turnovers forced. Even with a defensive touchdown, they only average four DK points per game. That’s a pass from me. 

Cash Plays – Mahomes, CEH, Kelce

GPP Plays – Reek, Hardman

Eagles 

QB – As bad as Jalen Hurts looked through portions of the game Monday night, he still scored 25 DK points and did it despite rushing for only 35 yards. Philly is a seven-point dog at home so we have a very negative script projected from Vegas and the Chiefs defense has been one of the worst through the early going. They are dead last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed 841 passing yards and seven total touchdowns. The rushing yardage against them is inflated because of Lamar Jackson, but Hurts is certainly capable of hurting them like that as well. Hurts is under $7,000 and well in play with the dual-threat capability. He is still seventh in FPDB and hasn’t even played well yet as he sits 23rd in true completion rate. 

RB – We always look for contrarian plays every week and Miles Sanders could be one of those guys this week. He legitimately disappeared on Monday Night Football since the Eagles ran one of the worst offensive game plans of the week and had two carries. TWO. He did tack on three receptions and generate over 50 yards on just five touches, which begs the question of why didn’t he get the ball more. One of the best ways to stop this KC offense is to not let it on the field. I believe the Eagles make a concentrated effort to feed Sanders the ball as the Chiefs are dead last in DVOA against the run and have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards already. On top of that, they’ve surrendered 125 yards through the air and five total touchdowns. This is the perfect spot for a boom game from Sanders. Kenneth Gainwell is more of an MME play because he should get 7-10 touches with a 12% target share and if he poaches a touchdown, you’re in business. 

WR – It was not a good night for the receivers in this offense, especially for Devonta Smith. He got handled by the Cowboys defense and even though he and Jalen Reagor are the only players with more than 11 targets on the season. Smith plays almost all of his snaps on the outside with just a 16% slot rate and he only has 11 receptions through three games. The target share isn’t in the top 30 among receivers and the same goes for Reagor. The only reason to play them is as a run-back option bit the matchups don’t scare me exactly. Both Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed both are over a 1.98 FPPT in their limited targets. The main takeaway is no corner should be feared, but the Eagles passing game just has not been great. 

TE – If I’m going to play one, it may as well be Zach Ertz at this point. The price difference is $1,300 but Ertz has the same amount of targets as Dallas Goedert on fewer snaps and Goedert only has one more RZ target. Goedert does have more receiving yardage but I’m not convinced it’s worth the pricing difference. Kansas City has shown vulnerability just about everywhere on defense, so I’m totally fine with either play but not going out of my way. Only five teams have given up more yards to the position so far. 

D/ST – The Chiefs do have six turnovers already but Mahomes has only been sacked four times. Even at $2,100, I’d play the Lions ahead of the Eagles because Kansas City is obviously far more of a threat to hang 35+ real points. 

Cash Plays – Hurts

GPP Plays – Sanders, Reagor, Smith, Ertz

Panthers at Cowboys, O/U of 50.5 (Cowboys -4)

Panthers 

QB – It’s amazing what can happen when you’re surrounded by competent people. Sam Darnold is fifth in true completion rate, ninth in passing yards, 10th in air yards, and 14th in FPDB. He’s probably not expensive enough quite yet and honestly, the matchup is tough to figure out. Dallas is 14th in DVOA and has been playing much better under coordinator Dan Quinn but at the same time, they are only four yards away from leading the league in passing yards allowed and have allowed the third-most touchdown passes. I’m not sold in cash with some injuries on this side of the ball, but he’s well in play for GPP as a cheap guy to add in more studs. 

Update – As the week has gone on, I’m cool with Darnold in cash and may even wind up playing hims myself.

RB – With CMC out for at least another week or two, all eyes will turn to Chubba Hubbard who turned 14 touches into 79 scrimmage yards. He also dropped a touchdown pass that didn’t matter for the game, but surely will not be looked kindly upon by the coaching staff. Hubbard was more than fine and he’ll likely be a chalk paring with CEH to spend up elsewhere. I do wonder if Royce Freeman gets more involved since the Panthers have a long week to game plan. Freeman had five carries on just a 15% snap rate and this is a spot where we should be monitoring practice and coach speak closely. We also need to recognize that Dallas is 12th in DVOA against the run. It’s a bit hard to gauge because they have only faced 30 rushing attempts on the season, the lowest in the NFL. 

WR – D.J. Moore has scored just one touchdown but he’s the WR10 so far. The breakout is real and he’s 10th in air yards, fifth in receptions, seventh in yards, and 18th in yards per route. His target share is the seventh-highest at 30.7% and he could see even more work without CMC. Trevon Diggs will have a serious test here and he’s been targeted 15 times but has only allowed a 1.49 FPPT. Diggs has played very well so far but the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most yards to the position. 

This is also a spot for Robby Anderson to pop off and I really like him as a GPP play. Let’s look at the factors. Nobody will want to play him with a very slow start to the season. That’s fair but the Panthers are without CMC and traded their starting tight end. Coach Matt Ruhle said they have to do a better job getting him involved. He has 121 unrealized air yards and if Diggs is busy, Anthony Brown should draw most of the coverage. That’s an exploitable spot as Brown has allowed a 15.3 YPR, a 2.27 FPPT, and a 132 passer rating. As of Friday, Moore is one of the most popular receivers on the slate and could provide incredible leverage on just one or two plays. Don’t confuse him with a cash game option, but this is the spot where it’s a perfect storm of factors that point towards a big game. 

TE – There is a reason that Carolina felt comfortable trading away Dan Arnold to the Jaguars this week. The first is simply gambling on the talent of C.J. Henderson from the Jags as he’s a top 10 draft pick at a difficult position to fill. Henderson and Jaycee Horn could potentially turn into a lockdown duo when Horn gets back if Henderson gets right. Anyways, let’s turn the page on the strong roster-building from Carolina and talk about Tommy Tremble. If he takes over the Arnold role of 10.9% target share and roughly 35% of the snaps, he’s a fascinating punt with no CMC in this offense. There’s plenty of chance that Tremble doesn’t do much or is a literal zero but he should take over the receiving tight end role and he had a rushing touchdown last week, which is an interesting wrinkle. The Panthers took him in the third round so they clearly like him and he’s a big target for Darnold to utilize. 

D/ST – The Panthers defense has been incredible but they suffered a couple of key injuries last week, could be breaking in a new corner, and face a dangerous Dallas offense. The price isn’t low enough to justify the risk. 

Cash Plays – Hubbard, Darnold, Moore 

GPP Plays – Anderson, Tremble 

Cowboys 

QB – Dak Prescott didn’t have to turn it loose very often Monday night with only 26 pass attempts, and that’s been about the only thing to complain about so far. After 58 attempts in Week 1, Dak has followed that up with 27 and 26 attempts the past two weeks. Dak is 10th in yards, and 11th in attempts, plus he’s fourth in RZ attempts so far through three weeks. The FPDB is only 22nd and that’s been a slight concern since the volume hasn’t matched anything else for the most part. The good news is he’s first in true completion rate and first in catchable pass rate as well. If he gets the correct game script, there is no reason to worry and we only have a four-point spread here. 

RB – Ezekiel Elliott may have been gifted a touchdown on Monday when CeeDee Lamb fell just short of the end zone, but Zeke was the workhorse and we may need to start treating him as such again. He’s ramped up his carries every week and three receptions is a season-high even when the Cowboys were up big fairly early. Tony Pollard still got 11 carries but Zeke had all five RZ attempts and that’s what we’re looking for. Now, the matchup is tough because Carolina has been the top-ranked DVOA defense through three weeks. They lead the league in rushing yards allowed at just 94 through three weeks and even with a weaker schedule, that is impressive. Having said that, Zeke is back to 18-20 touches, commanding the RZ work, and is $6,500. 

WR – Game script duly noted, it was a very disappointing night for CeeDee Lamb as he just missed a 45-yard touchdown and then did virtually nothing else. it was a bit shocking to see him only targeted three times and I think something that has been notable from the Cowboys offense so far is the flexibility they have shown. If they can run the ball effectively, they don’t hesitate. If they know that they can’t run the ball, Dak will throw it 55+ times and you know what? That is the exact way offenses should work but it can be a little tough for fantasy players. We have to be careful of that although Carolina has allowed nothing to backs so far so maybe Dak chucks with them missing Horn. Lamb is still moving around with 27.2% of his snaps in the slot so Donte Jackson wouldn’t be a concern, especially considering he’s allowed a 2.27 FPPT. 

That matchup also probably matters for Amari Cooper who may be an even better GPP target. Coop has done squat since Week 1 and is battling an injury, but he’s suffered through the same script concerns Lamb has. His target share is only 22.9% with the addition of Schultz and the backs in this passing game but the loss of Horn is a big deal and it’s a lot to ask Henderson to walk into a new system. I’m not totally bought into Carolina being a defensive juggernaut but I don’t think anyone is a cash play. 

TE – It seems like it’s a pretty large chase of a monster game, but you could legit do worse than Dalton Schultz. Through three games, he’s sixth in receptions and seventh in yards and he’s being targeted for a 31.5% target rate on his routes. He’s still not running a ton of routes at just 48 but with Gallup out, he seems to be filling the void a bit behind Cooper and Lamb. 

D/ST – The Dallas defense is playing worlds better than we thought, sitting 15th in DVOA overall, and is very affordable. After CMC left last week, the Carolina offense didn’t look like they were anything special either. If you believe the Diggs can contain Moore, they can probably find success in this spot. They lead the league in takeaways despite only having four sacks on the season so you can do worse in this range. 

Cash Plays – Zeke, Dak, Schultz

GPP Plays – Lamb, Cooper, D/ST 

Giants at Saints, O/U of 42 (Saints -7.5) 

Giants 

QB – It’s a little bit difficult to point to the thing that Daniel Jones does well for fantasy. He is third in rushing yards among quarterbacks but I can’t say that’s going to continue with total confidence. He’s 10th in FPDB but he only has two passing touchdowns, is 15th in yards, and 16th in attempts. Even once they hit the RZ, Jones is just 15th in attempts there and his four RZ carries don’t seem like they’ll stick while Saquon is back. Now kick in that New Orleans is the sixth-best DVOA defense against the pass and will be playing the first true home game in the dome this season and I won’t be playing Jones this week. 

RB – It’s not an easy matchup but Saquon Barkley is still under $7,000 and has to be considered. He touched the ball 22 times last week and six of those were receptions, which is more what we want anyway. He played over 80% of the snaps yet again and appears to be full over his ACL injury. Saquon is sixth in routes across all running backs, which is impressive considering how little he played in Week 1. He also has eight touches inside the RZ and even though the Saints are third in DVOA against the run, they’re allowing five receptions per game to the position as well. Saquon is the type of talent that can overcome a tough matchup. 

WR – I would have to assume very strongly that Kenny Golladay will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore and I just don’t want much to do with that. Golladay is not the type of receiver that I trust in tough matchups yet, nor do I trust Jones to get him the ball. He’s not traveling into the slot at all and that’s no surprise, so Lattimore and his 59.1 passer rating allowed and his 0.96 FPPT will go after Golladay. 

After that, we’re not sure yet. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were forced from last week’s game with hamstrings. We can talk about them if they’re in but if they are out, Collin Johnson could be interesting. He played almost half of the snaps and would up co-leading the team in targets. If Golladay is having a rough time, the ball has to go somewhere. Johnson, Barkley, and the tight end would be leading candidates. 

Update – Shepard and Slayton are both out so my attention turns to Johnson. I’ve seen some folks talk about Kadrius Toney and he did play a lot last week, with 65.7% of the snaps. His three targets combined for an aDOT of 3.0 yards and Johnson had an aDOT of 11.4 yards. Perhaps with the attention going towards the tight end, Johnson winds up being sneaky. To me, I’ll take the role of Johnson over Tonery and hoping he breaks a big play.

TE – It was a pretty encouraging start for Evan Engram in his first game of the season. He ran 26 routes and played 21 snaps in the slot, which was 56.8% of the time. He only caught two passes but he was targeted six times and the receiving corps could be battered in this game. We’ll need to circle back later in the week for clarity on the situation. 

D/ST – New York just really lacks playmakers on this side of the ball and are the bottom 12 in pressures, have three takeaways, and are 23rd in overall DVOA. The only way this play would pay off is if they got a full Jameis Meltdown. 

Cash Plays – Saquon, Engram

GPP Plays – Johnson, Toney

Saints 

QB – I honestly wish I knew what to do with Jameis Winston. The easy track is just to say skip him because he’s only thrown the ball 63 times this season, 30th in the league. That simply won’t cut it most weeks as the Saints have turned into a run-first team and leaning on the defense. He’s 30th in passing yards, 30th in air yards, and the touchdowns have saved him. He’s thrown seven but only two since Week 1. The Giants are 20th in DVOA against the pass and have given up the 12th most passing yards along with six touchdowns. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Jameis eclipse 18-20 DK, but I’m not terribly enthused to find out at this volume. 

RB – Alvin Kamara resides third in the NFL in carries, which is great but only has 10 receptions through three games which are not so great. Even without the receiving floor being what we’re accustomed to, Kamara is still in a very good spot. The Giants are 23rd in DVOA against the run and they have gotten smashed through the air against backs so far. Only the Seahawks have allowed more than the 202 yards receiving New York has allowed and they have allowed the sixth-most receptions. Kamara is still carrying the highest target share on the team at 26.9% and this could be the first game where we really see the dual-threat ability. I will point out that target share isn’t even five targets per game yet. He would be a fascinating pivot if Henry is the chalk at the position. 

Update – I’d give Kamara a slight downgrade since he will be without starting center in Erik McCoy and tackle Terron Armstead. The flip side is maybe they really get him going in the passing game this week.

WR – I’m not falling for the Marquez Callaway game. His touchdown was just a wild heave by Jameis that should have been picked off. He has all of seven receptions all season long, which is just way too thin to trust even at the salary. He’s 89th in routes, 72nd in targets, and 48th in target share. Let’s move on. It’s crazy how disgusting the Saints’ offense got for fantasy within the space of an offseason. The matchup is solid if he avoided James Bradberry but this still isn’t a spot to attack and we may have even better and cheaper value. 

TE – Adam Trautman has had two straight games with zero fantasy points and Juwan Johnson has scored just 3.3 DK over the past two games after his two-touchdown game in Week 1. 

D/ST – I absolutely love the play in a vacuum as the Saints blitz at a top 12 rate, have a top 10 pressure rate, and have seven takeaways. It’s really just a matter if they fit, and they will likely not make it in my builds since I never pay up for defenses. 

Cash Plays – Kamara

GPP Plays – Jameis, D/ST 

Browns at Vikings, O/U of 51.5 (Browns -2)

Browns 

QB – Maybe the Vikings can force the Browns out of their game plan here and how the ball a little more, but you had better hope that happens if you’re playing Baker Mayfield. He’s 28th in attempts, 16th in passing yards, 24th in air yards, 26th in RZ attempts, and 14th in true completion rate with only two touchdown passes all year. To Baker’s credit, he is 15th in FPDB but this is a run-first team when they play the style they want to. Mayfield is more important to real-life football than he is to fantasy football at this juncture. Minnesota sits 24th in DVOA and they have given up the fourth-mod passing yards so there is a scenario where Baker is well worth playing but I think we have better options. 

RB – Kareem Hunt tilted people that played Nick Chubb off the face of the planet last week, and it’s still the same story as it always is with Cleveland. Chubb is going to get the majority of the carries while Hunt gets 6-10 carries a week and the vast majority of the targets. The RZ work has been split so far with Chubb holding an 11-6 edge but you saw last week where the floor is for Chubb. He had no receptions and no touchdowns so his 84 rushing yards was all you got. With the Vikings ranked 27th in DVOA against the run, both players can be considered and with the receiving corps in tatters, you can argue Hunt has the safer floor. He could take a lot of work with no Jarvis Landry and it may not have been an accident he saw seven targets last week. 

WR – I’m going to let Ian (who is a great follow) handle this one – 

Beckham played 64% of the snaps, had a 49.2% air yards share, and nine targets in his first game back from an ACL tear. He’s under $6,000 and this game has one of the highest O/U on the slate, not to mention Jarvis Landry is still out with his MCL sprain. Let’s. Go. No other receiver had more than two targets last week and Beckham is going to get fed. 

TE – With a low-volume offense and multiple tight ends splitting snaps, it just seems like a terrible idea to play just about any of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. The first two have maintained a snap rate over 60% and Hooper is sporting a 14.3% target share to lead 10.4% from the other two. With Beckham back and Hunt involved in the passing game, you’re banking on a touchdown from Hooper. Even then, he scored and had all of 9.9 DK points last week. Playing Hooper means you think this game really gets up and down, which is a possibility. 

D/ST – Cleveland has a top 10 defense in DVOA but I have to be honest, I’m not that interested in going against this Vikings offense right now. They’ve only allowed five sacks and the Browns have only forced two turnovers. 

Cash Plays – Beckham, Hunt

GPP Plays – Chubb, Baker, Hooper 

Vikings 

QB – I said last week that Kirk Cousins is all steak, no sizzle and then he went and put up a casual 28 DK points. He was phenomenal with 323 yards and three touchdowns and that’s proof of how well he’s played so far. Cousins is seventh in yards, eighth in attempts, and 13th in FPDB while sitting sixth in points per game. He’s also second in true completion rate and has command of this Vikings offense. For what it’s worth, he is second in QBR and his true passer rating is 127.5. Cleveland is 10th in DVOA against the pass but the Vikings receivers offer a tough matchup for anyone and Cousins knows where to put the ball to take advantage. 

RB – We aren’t sure yet if Dalvin Cook makes it back for Week 4, but Alexander Mattison proved once again that the backfield is in capable hands if Cook misses. He gouged Seattle on almost every play to finish with 171 scrimmage yards and he put up 26 DK without the benefit of a touchdown. The Vikings used him in all facets of the game with 32 total touches, which is phenomenal. Cleveland has been tough against the run so far, ranking fourth in DVOA and only allowing 151 yards on the ground and 93 through the air. Both Cook and Mattison will likely be lower rostered, but I will prefer other players in each price range. 

Update – Cook is on track to make his return to the lineup this week.

WR – With the knowledge that Denzel Ward is on the other side but doesn’t shadow typically, that makes this spot interesting for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. They both only roll into the slot about 17% of the time so the focus is on the boundaries for both. It looks a little bit like last year if we’re being honest. JJ is fifth in routes, eighth in air yards share, 10th in both receptions and yards, but has two scores to four for Thielen. The latter is only 36th in yards so he’s being buoyed by the touchdowns, which has been happening since the start of last season. It should also be noted that as of the early going, Ward has not been that great with a 114.3 passer rating, a 1.77 FPPT, and a 76.9% catch rate across 13 targets. That’s not someone that I actively shy away from statistically. Troy Hill has been the slot corner for Cleveland and has been targeted all of once so I’m not actively going after K.J. Osborn since I don’t believe Cousins will support both receivers and both Osborn and the tight end. It will typically be one or the other. 

TE – Ty Conklin had himself a game last week instead of Osborn but we should likely be careful. Half of his 16 targets came just last week and we saw Cousins and company did whatever they wanted. Conklin is on the field all the time at 74% and has a 13.7% target share. He is also still 14th in routes and 16th in target rate, which is not spectacular. Conklin does have 13 receptions which are seventh in the league. He’s a fine option but if he’s popular, I’ll back off outside of possibly cash. 

D/ST – The Vikes are tied for the fourth-most sacks and have benefited greatly from the return of Danielle Hunter in their pass rush. They also only have two takeaways but it is nice to see Baker has been sacked nine times already. Minnesota is 25th in DVOA on the whole so this is an unstable play, but the price isn’t bad. 

Cash Plays – Cousins, Cook

GPP Plays – Jefferson, Thielen, Conklin

Colts at Dolphins, O/U of 42.5 (Dolphins -2)

Colts 

QB – At the risk of cutting GravMatt in Discord deeply, Carson Wentz is just bad. I can’t slice it any other way. The offensive line and coaching in Indy were supposed to revive his career but he’s dealt with injuries again and he sits 29th in clean completion rate. He’s also 30th in catchable pass rate and 26th in FPDB. I’m struggling for reasons to play him when Miami is seventh in DVOA and has only given up five touchdown passes so far. 

RB – Another case of the secondary back outscoring the primary back so far, we’ve arrived at Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. It was very frustrating to see JT get just 10 carries on Sunday considering he ripped off 64 yards rushing and the game wasn’t crazily tilted at any point. Hines had the same amount of total touches at 11 but five of those were receptions and he scored the touchdown, which tilted the score easily towards him. This has to be the week for Taylor. Miami has allowed the third-most rushing yards on the season although they do rank 14th in DVOA against the run. Despite splitting the snaps, Taylor is 12th in carries and second in RZ touches and that’s going to pay off at some point. He’s also 16th in rushing yards overall and there are too many metrics that point to an explosion game sooner or later. 

Update – Quenton Nelson being out doesn’t help the offensive line although Marlon Mack being a scratch would theoretically help the floors for Taylor and Hines.

WR – Michael Pittman is well in play and has been great the past couple of weeks but we’re starting with Zach Pascal. He’s running the most slot snaps of any player in the NFL at 75.6% and running the 11th most routes. He is also third in RZ targets with three touchdowns. The Dolphins have split the slot with Nik Needham and Justin Coleman and both have a FPPT over 1.47 while Coleman is over 2.75. With Pittman having to deal with the duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, we could see work get funneled to Pascal just like we saw last week when Hunter Renfroe paid off for the Raiders. To his credit, Pittman has the sixth-highest air yards share and the seventh-most routes in the league. He’s had 12 targets in each of the past couple of games and has four RZ targets himself. Jones and Howard haven’t been total lockdown corners and Pittman’s best game came with Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the field. Both are in play, but I’ll take the savings on Pascal. 

TE – Jack Doyle is 12th in routes but only 14th in targets and 20th in receptions so far. He’s very cheap but this offense is pretty gross and I might rather play Tremble. Doyle is barely fourth on his own team in targets and his quarterback is one of the worst around. 

D/ST – Indy has only been 21st in DVOA in the first three weeks and has the fewest pressures in the league so far. The good thing is they have forced six takeaways and face a backup quarterback, so they’re still in play but not my favorite of the bunch. 

Cash Plays – Pascal, JT

GPP Plays – Pittman, Hines, D/ST 

Dolphins 

QB – It took 49 attempts but Jacoby Brissett clawed his way to 20.3 DK points last week and remains dirt cheap. While he’s a competent backup, I’m not sure how often we want to go to the well here. Brissett is only throwing for 4.3 yards per attempt, which is 30th and is 34th in FPDB. I grant you that it’s a smaller sample, but he had the full week to prepare and that’s not super encouraging. Miami isn’t going to want him to throw nearly 50 times per game. Indy has been a defense we have picked on with passing games and they are 21st in DVOA, but I’m not super thrilled with this selection. 

RB – There were some encouraging signs for Myles Gaskin as he carried the ball 13 times last week and had six targets. Normally I’d be quick to jump on that volume at $5,300 but he still saw Malcolm Brown usurp seven carries and he got two RZ carries while Gaskin had zero. On the season, Gaskin has just one RZ carry while Brown has four and that’s a huge roadblock to any type of ceiling. The Colts have been middling against the run so far but the DVOA looks stronger at 11th but they have given up 324 rushing yards. If Gaskin is just a between the 20’s player, we can find better options. Players like him need to be involved with all facets of the game. 

WR – There has to be a point where Jaylen Waddle uses his speed and YAC ability to break a big play, but in the meantime, he’s getting nine targets per game and running the 10th most routes per contest. Waddle is a great fit on DK because he’s fifth in receptions already. The low aDOT of 4.6 is helping since he’s catching nearly everything thrown his way. He leads the team in targets and brings a floor while we haven’t seen the ceiling yet with his explosiveness. Waddle is also playing 56% in the slot so the safety valve role works fine at this price tag. 

Choosing between DeVante Parker and Will Fuller is a little tougher as Fuller came back into the lineup and saw six targets on 61% of the snaps and the aDOT was 20.2 yards. I’d love to see Fuller get matched against Rock Ya-Sin with a massive speed advantage and he’s still super cheap. The role he had last week is encouraging as a deep threat while Parker is the safer bet, but likely with less of a ceiling. When things are going well, Fuller and Waddle are the 1-2 punch in this corps. 

TE – Can someone explain why Mike Gesick has run 87 routes but 44 came this week? Why suddenly is Gesicki used in the passing game when Tua is hurt? It’s almost like Miami wants Tua to fail and do things to openly sabotage him. Gesicki is an athletic freak and using him in this style while Tua is out after he only ran 43 routes combined the first two weeks just makes ZERO sense. It’s absolutely ridiculous. You’re supposed to put the young, inexperienced quarterback in positions to make the job easier, not harder. Anyways, if Gesicki is going to run that many routes and carry a 24% target rate while doing it he’s just far too cheap and Brissett has a history of liking his tight ends. I didn’t like him last week based on the usage that Miami showed us. It’s not chasing a big game when the usage backs everything up. 

D/ST – Miami is seventh in overall DVOA, has five turnovers, and is middle of the pack as far as pressures go. As long as Wentz is active on the other side, I’m fine with the opposing defense. He’s being pressured 32% of the time, which is top-four in the league. 

Cash Plays – Waddle, Gesicki

GPP Plays – Fuller, Brissett, D/ST 

Washington at Falcons, O/U of 47 (Washington -1)

Washington 

QB – We have to be careful where we’d want to play Taylor Heinicke because he’s going to be prone to games like last week when the matchup is tilted out of his favor. He saved his day with three total touchdowns but the completion rate was under 60% and he’s pretty lucky a running back housed a screen from a long distance. So far, the FPDB is actually stout at .63, which is ninth in the NFL. He is 10th in true completion rate and with Atlanta sitting 30th in DVOA and giving up an 8:0 TD:INT ratio, Heinicke isn’t the worst play at the position this week. 

RB – Note to Washington – throw the ball to Antonio Gibson. Even RG3 knows the score here – 

Gibson only had one other target the rest of the game, which is immensely frustrating. This game got ugly early so I’m not going to tag them for not giving him more than 12 carries, but that had better change this week. Atlanta has not shown much on either side of the ball, sitting 24th in DVOA and allowing almost 400 total scrimmage yards so far. Gibson is first in evaded tackles, 10th in rush yards, and 12th in receiving yards despite sitting 32nd in routes and 30th in receptions. Washington has to get the ball to him in space more often, especially with the inexperience they have at quarterback. I will continue to play Gibson over J.D. McKissic, regardless of the $1,100 gap in salary. 

WR – The only player I’m looking at on a full slate is Terry McLaurin who is in a much better spot than last week. The Atlanta defense as a whole has already allowed five touchdowns and 495 yards against receivers and aside from some sketchy quarterback play at times, there is still plenty to like. He’s 11th in target share at 28.1% and is 13th in receptions and only 18 of 25 targets have been catchable. McLaurin has 19 receptions so that tells you a lot and I’m sure the Falcons will want to pair him against A.J. Terrell as much as they can. He’s only been targeted four times so far and has yet to allow a single catch through three games, which is impressive. No other receiver is sitting above a 15.9% target share and Adam Humphries is tied with the tight end for second in targets on the team. 

Update – In a surprise, Curtis Samuel is active for this game after practicing all week in pads. I thought we might be able to go there for cash since he is the minimum salary but I’m a little leery after seeing Coach Rivera (congratulations to him on his one-year anniversary for being cancer free) say they’ll “sprinkle him in”. I’m still more than fine in GPP and I guess if the rest of the lineup is loaded….maybe cash. You have to know there’s a risk even at minimum.

TE – No other tight end runs more snaps out of the slot than Logan Thomas and he’s ninth in routes run. The 15.7% target share is eighth among tight ends and he’s accumulated three RZ targets as well. I feel like he’s a little expensive for the role and the quarterback throwing him the ball but the Falcons have already allowed three touchdowns against tight ends. We know more or less who Thomas is and he’s fine, but not anything more in my eyes. 

D/ST – They string of the last three weeks and the price has me not interested in Washington. They are 29th in DVOA, which is pretty shocking given what they have on that side of the ball and they’ve only forced two turnovers and have just six sacks (in fairness, they are tied for the second-most pressures in football). I just wish they were cheaper even against the Falcons. 

Cash Plays – Gibson, Thomas 

GPP Plays – McLaurin, Samuel, Heinicke, D/ST

Falcons 

QB – I think Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are competing to see who is more washed up at this point. Ryan is 29th in yards per attempt, 34th in air yards per attempt, 28th in air yards, and 28th in FPDB. It’s not looking like the best decision ever from the Falcons to pass on quarterback at the fourth pick in the draft. The only thing Ryan is still doing well is coming from play-action since he sits sixth in pass attempts from that play type and first in completion rate. Washington has been horrid defending the pass sitting at 29th in DVOA and allowing the fifth-most passing yards thus far. Ryan is at home and he’s cheap but the true upside seems a bit lacking. 

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson outscored Mike Davis for the second straight week and his role in the offense is becoming undeniable. He is only playing 35.9% of the snaps but he has 21 carries and is only one RZ carry behind Davis at 3-4. He also has 15 targets to 20 for Davis, but has been equal to Davis or has had more the past two weeks. Even his seasonal rate is a solid 12.4% target share and he’s third in receiving yards among backs and seventh in receptions. When Patterson is getting seven carries per game on top of that, this is a pretty cheap 12-14 touches and the Falcons are taking advantage of the skill set. Washington is not playing defense at the level we thought they would as they sit 20th in DVOA against the run. I also believe even though they’ve allowed just eight receptions to backs, that has been more about the teams they have faced than anything else. They got lucky that Austin Ekeler didn’t have a target in Week 1 and Saquon wasn’t up to speed Week 2. With the RZ work being very close, I prefer Patterson.

WR – Calvin Ridley has seen his price fall and even with the concerns with Ryan, I’m really looking at him in GPP. Let’s look deeper. Ridley is fifth in routes, third in RZ targets, third in air yards share, 10th in receptions, and has 157 unrealized air yards. It has to start converting at some point here and he’s being fed nearly 10 targets per game. He doesn’t head into the slot very much at just 9% so he’ll see both Kendall Fuller and William Jackson. Fuller has allowed a 1.71 FPPT and over 200 yards already while Jackson is faring better with a 1.06 FPPT. 

I just can’t buy into Olamide Zaccheaus even after a solid game because I can’t imagine he gets the same amount of work. As it was he was only third on the team with six and he converted his lone RZ target for a score. Normally, a 3/32 line won’t pay the bills and I’ll focus elsewhere. 

TE – Oh Kyle Pitts, why do you torture us? To be more accurate, why does your franchise insist on taking you fourth overall to not give you a target before the fourth quarter and just three overall? Pitts is sixth in slot snaps, eighth in air yards, eighth in yards, 12th in receptions, and ninth in target share at 15.2%. The issues include only sitting 26th in yards per route and 19th in yards per target. His usage is mostly all we could ask for and he’s the TE15…but he’s just not my favorite target in this offense and that goes for real life as well, apparently. 

D/ST – They’re in the bottom three in DVOA and have six sacks along with two takeaways. 

Cash Plays – Ridley 

GPP Plays – Pitts, Patterson, Davis 

Seahawks at 49ers, O/U of 51.5 (49ers -3)

Seahawks 

QB – Seeing the injury issues the 49ers had on Sunday night in their secondary has to make Russell Wilson salivate for this matchup. It still makes me sad that he’s 26th in pass attempts so far. How does Seattle not understand he’s their best shot with that atrocious defense on the other side of the ball? Despite being 26th in attempts, Russ is eighth in passing yards, first in yards per attempt, and fifth in touchdowns on only six RZ attempts. SIX. The most important part of the field but we’re going to give Russ two cracks at it per game. Alrighty then! When he’s kept clean, Russ is first in completion rate and he’s third in passer rating. San Fran is only 19th in DVOA and Wilson will likely be mostly ignored again. Give this guy more attempts! 

RB – I definitely feel concerned a little bit about Chris Carson and where the floor is for him. Perhaps I shouldn’t be because his receiving share really isn’t off base from last season. He’s 15th in carries on the season and fifth in rushing yards, both of which are solid starts. However, he has very little after that with just five targets on the season and he starts to need touchdowns to pay off in a major way. Consider Carson broke off a 30-yard touchdown run early in the game on Sunday but in a trailing game script, he played just 43% of the snaps. Last year saw Carson have an 8% target share and while this year is only at 7%, two targets a game don’t help the cause at this salary. The 49ers are 16th in DVOA and knowing Carson played so little last week when the game was trailing has to be considered. 

WR – DK Metcalf certainly feels too cheap yet again after he went for over 25 DK last week and the man might be the most unique blend of speed and size at the receiver position. Metcalf is still ninth in unrealized air yards but his 2.65 yards per route honestly helps his stability a little bit. Metcalf can stretch the field any time he pleases and he took over the target lead from Tyler Lockett at 25-20. Despite Lockett’s massive start, Metcalf is only 14.9 points behind in PPR and he could face Emmanuel Moseley. He’s 190 pounds and under six feet tall and DK will have an incredible physical mismatch. Lockett is sitting at a 22.5% slot rate and is 15th in air yards himself and we’ve seen the ceiling he carries. As long as the knee injury doesn’t hold him back, the possibility of corner K’Waun Williams won’t either. 

Update – Williams is out and corner Josh Norman is doubtful, not a good mix when facing these two receivers.

TE – Is Gerald Everett playable at his price? I suppose, but the 11.3% target share isn’t something monstrous. Everett has lined up in the slot for 31.4% of his snaps which is 12th but he’s also 21st in receptions and 25th in yards. He’s had exactly one RZ target which isn’t fun to see either so I’m likely going elsewhere. 

Update – Everett is out for Sunday, which could open up Will Dissly as a punt option. I’m not crazy about it, but it helps that the split of targets among both tight ends should funnel directly to Dissly. Then we’re talking about 5-7 targets at $2,600. 

D/ST – This defense has been an abject disaster, there’s no way I’m going here even against a very average quarterback. 

Cash Plays – Metcalf, Lockett, Russ, Carson 

GPP Plays – Dissly 

49ers 

QB – If you have to bring in the rookie quarterback when you’re close to the goal line and the plays are the most important, he should be getting more time anyways but I digress. In fairness, Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play nearly as poorly as the public would have you believe but he had multiple open receivers that he missed. He also had one of the more egregious twirling fumbles I’ve ever seen to gift the Packers a field goal (the 49ers last by two) and if Jimmy G can’t get it done here, he needs to get worried. Seattle has given up the seventh-most passing yards with no interceptions and is 24th in DVOA. San Francisco has a full complement of pass catchers and it’s put up or shut up time for Garoppolo. 

RB – I’m really hoping that Elijah Missile (credit to the Fantasy Footballers for that nickname) is back for this one. Trey Sermon scored a touchdown but my word did he look bad for the most part in that game. He had a dropped pass and looked apprehensive in almost everything he did which is understandable for a rookie. I’m not talking down on him but I would have to think that since Mitchell has shown he can produce, he’d go right back to the lead role and that would be insanely valuable this week. Seattle is 18th in DVOA but just got totally carved up by Mattison on the Vikings, to say nothing of Derrick Henry. Mitchell may not be at that level but has racked up 146 rushing yards on 36 carries so far and would be a very strong play at this price point against the team that has allowed 661 scrimmage yards to running backs so far, easily the most in football. 

Update – Mitchell remains questionable. If Mitchell can’t make this game…..a very crazy play is Kyle Juszczyk. Jus (the more times I have to spell his last name means I’m one time closer to making a mistake) played almost 70% of the snaps and had nine touches. He had more targets than Sermon and his five carries were half of 10 for Sermon. Jus also took two RZ targets, one behind Aiyuk for the team lead. We’re talking a strong path to under five DK points, but it’s at least on the board if Kittle is out as well.

WR – Let’s start off by saying the corners of Seattle like D.J. Reed and Tre Flowers don’t scare anyone. Flowers is getting smacked for a 2.39 FPPT and a 138.4 passer rating and Reed has a 1.71 FPPT mark with a 103.3 passer rating. Now that we’ve established that, let’s welcome Brandon Aiyuk back into the world of fantasy. He played 87.7% of the snaps and saw six targets, which was easily the best of the young season. He also had three EZ targets and the salary has not caught up at $5,000. I would prefer playing him as a run-back over Deebo Samuel at a $1,500 price difference. It’s going to be tough to support all three pass catchers in the offense every game, but if there’s a game to do it…this sure could be the one to do it. Deebo is still 10th in receptions and second in receiving yards, so it’s not like he is priced egregiously. It’s just that much easier to take the Aiyuk route and that likely leaves Deebo as an elite game stacking option. 

TE – When you have a quarterback who is limited like Jimmy G, you should want George Kittle out in the field all the time to catch passes, despite him being an incredible blocker. Kittle is 17th in routes run, which is frankly absurd. His target rate is 28.1% on his routes which is seventh and Kittle is fifth and third in receptions and yards, respectively. All of that is on just 64 routes through three games! The Niners trailed almost the entire game last week and he still wasn’t used enough, although 7/92 isn’t that bad. Kittle is under $6,000 in a high total game, and that’s pretty much all I need to hear. 

Update – Shanahan is saying that Kittle is not guaranteed to play on Sunday so we need to keep an eye on that.

D/ST – I’m not playing defense against Russ, especially when the secondary could be this battered. 

Cash Plays – Mitchell (if healthy), Aiyuk, Kittle (if healthy)

GPP Plays – Deebo, Jus

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 55 (Rams -4)

Cardinals 

QB – It was a funky game from Kyler Murray last game but I have absolutely no worries coming into this one. His history against the Rams is not great but things change so fast in the NFL. This offense is different with added weapons and the Rams are only 13th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is also extremely difficult to defend in general and has plenty of rushing upside regardless of the matchup. He’s third in passing yards, seventh in RZ attempts, just 17th in attempts, and second in FPDB because he has 70 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to go along with everything else. You can play him by himself or with any other passing option in this game as we try and find ways to get unique since this game should carry the most popularity. 

RB – James Conner stealing two touchdowns was annoying and it was going to happen at some point considering he has eight RZ carries to just three for Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds still has 31 carries to 35 for Conner and Edmonds has a 17.4% target share compared to just one lone target for Conner through three weeks. Two targets have come in the RZ so the gap in touches there is a little bit smaller as well. This game should feature plenty of passing from each team and the Rams are only 21st in DVOA against the run to this point. Combining that with them giving up 19 receptions to the backs, and Edmonds is still the better play in my eyes since the prices are so close together. 

WR – This is a spot where I absolutely don’t blame the Cardinals for doing it, but this receiving corps could be a real pain to project every week. All four of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green are all between a target share of 18% and 14%. The scary part is Nuk is third, and we still have Edmonds taking up targets as well. It makes the offense that much harder to defend but it’s almost like pulling straws to see who goes off every week. Jalen Ramsey typically doesn’t shadow but he can and I would expect him to have plenty of time on Hopkins. I don’t view him as the best spend in this game if he’s going to be hampered by a rib injury and sees one of the better corners in football. FWIW, he has yet to exceed 21 DK points in any of his four games against the Rams. 

So if we’re stacking, we have to go elsewhere in my eyes, and Green and Kirk are leading the pack. Green has four RZ targets and has been mostly on the outside and would have a big height advantage over Darious Williams and his 1.53 FPPT. Kirk has been in the slot about 60% of the time and sits 10th in yards per route at 3.37. Now, Ramsey has played plenty of slot corner at 53.7% so he could draw the worst matchup but I also have a hard time believing the Rams just give Hopkins a free run in this game. Moore is a super exciting player, but it was discouraging to see him fall under a 35% snaps rate last week and that’s a major red flag after almost 50% in Week 2. 

TE – I did get Maxx Williams right last week, meaning he did virtually nothing on just three targets. I stand firm in the fact Week 2 will likely be his best week of the year and seven of his 11 targets came in that week. He wouldn’t even be on the radar without that week. 

D/ST – Nope. 

Cash Plays – Kyler, Edmonds, Kirk, Green 

GPP Plays – Hopkins, Moore 

Rams 

QB – It’s kind of funny to see Matthew Stafford only 22nd in passing attempts because I definitely thought the Rams would be more pass-heavy with him. He’s turned that into the fifth-most pass yards, the sixth-most air yards, nine touchdowns, and the fifth-highest FPDB. Stafford is one of the (very) early front runners for MVP and the price is more than fair. 

RB – It appears that Darrell Henderson has a good shot to make it back this week and if he does, he could be a great pivot from the passing games in this contest. Henderson has exceeded 15 touches in each of his two starts so far and scored in each one. Being attached to one of the best passing attacks in football has privileges because, in two games, Henderson only saw a stacked front 20.7% of the time. Sony Michel could wind up being more involved since he had a whopping 23 touches without Henderson in but Henderson is still expected to be the lead back and is very cheap for this contest. Surprisingly, these teams are in the bottom 12 in the pace of play early on but the offensive firepower will make up for that. 

Update – Henderson is fully expected to play in this game and is a very affordable way to get into this game.

WR – Play Cooper Kupp. That is all. 

Alright, not really. You should play Kupp because he’s been amazing and leads the league in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and he’s third in yards per route run. His 35.5% target share is fourth and there’s not much left to say about him right now. 

Having said all that and believing it, Robert Woods continues to be a strong GPP option because he still has a 20% target share, four RZ targets, and three EZ targets. He will not continue to convert a little over half of his targets and while he may not be the alpha on the squad, his role is still valuable and as much as I love Kupp, he’s not scoring 30 DK every single week (I think). Robert Alford and Byron Murphy have both allowed either a 72% catch rate or a FPPT of 1.85, so we should have little concern there. Lastly, I would caution chasing the DeSean Jackson game. He was a monster but played just 32% of the snaps and actually had one fewer target than Van Jefferson. 

TE – Tyler Higbee continues to play a massive amount of snaps at 93.5% and he’s fourth in that stat. Higbee is also fifth in RZ targets and has a 12.9% target share on the season thus far. The Cards have allowed the second-fewest yards and only eight receptions against tight ends, but they haven’t exactly played strong options so that is less of a concern for me. Higbee is solid but he may need a touchdown to pay off in this game. 

D/ST – Also nope. 

Cash Plays – Kupp, Stafford, Higbee

GPP Plays – Woods, Jefferson, Henderson (or Michel if Henderson can’t make it)

Steelers at Packers, O/U of 46 (Packers -6.5)

Steelers 

QB – I’m going to be short and sweet here, and this sucks. Just watch Ben Roethlisberger after he “throws” this ball – 

Don’t play Big Ben. 

RB – We saw last week that Najee Harris is never fully out of play since the Pittsburgh offense can’t move the ball and he’s going to see just a ridiculous amount of targets. Having said that, it has to be talked about that Diontae Johnson was out and JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game having played not even 40% of the snaps. The Packers are vulnerable against the run ranking 28th in DVOA and they’ve allowed 353 scrimmage yards along with three touchdowns. This game projects to be a very negative game script for Pittsburgh so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Najee with another 10 carries and 6-8 receptions, regardless of who’s playing receiver. 

WR – The practice reports are crucial here because Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s status could make a massive difference. Johnson was limited on Wednesday so that’s a good sign and I’ll be interested if he’s active. Jaire Alexander doesn’t always shadow and Johnson has a massive 30.5% target share. He’s one of the sharpest route runners in football and will be almost guaranteed 10+ targets. 

JuJu did not practice but that doesn’t mean a lot at this point. He’s cheap enough to consider I guess but a 4.1 aDOT and the third-most targets are not a good mix. That’s not even mentioning that Harris will eat targets as well. Chase Claypool needed both receivers out to have a game worth fantasy consideration, and he would likely see some of Alexander with just an 11.6% slot rate. Claypool is fourth in unrealized air yards, but we can’t be confident that trend reverses. Let’s circle back on Friday to see who all will be in this game. 

Update – Diontae is expected to play and is line for at least 10 targets, no issues with playing him. He also may need to stretch the field a bit more because Claypool may miss this game. He went from limited on Thursday and DNP on Friday. JuJu is there but I almost never play him. Packers corner Kevin King is doubtful so that helps Diontae because he could see more of rookie Eric Stokes.

TE – Pat Freiermuth has clearly overtaken Eric Ebron in production at this position but I may not get too carried away here. He’s 30th in routes because the offensive line needs all the help it can get and he’s not even inside the top 20 in receptions or yards. Maybe if the receivers are out again, I’ll change my mind but I’m not there yet. The fact Claypool may not play could get the rookie a couple of more targets.

D/ST – Do we play defenses (even though T.J. Watt is back) against the Packers at home when they’re healthy? We do not, let’s keep going. 

Cash Plays – Harris, Johnson 

GPP Plays – JuJu, Freiermuth

Packers 

QB – I’m not sure Aaron Rodgers should be under $7,000 on DK this week at home against a reeling Steelers squad. They just let Joe Burrow throw for three touchdowns on just 18 pass attempts and they’re not going to have a single answer for the lead receiver in this game. What is kind of funny is the metrics for Rodgers don’t look as great as you would expect. He’s only 24th in attempts, 26th in passing yards, 22nd in air yards, and 17th in FPDB. Just remember, one of their games this year was one of the worst that Rodgers has ever played. That skews the numbers. He’s still seventh in RZ attempts and my only fear is they don’t need to pass a ton because the game is won early. Having said that, he could easily go for 275 yards or more and three touchdowns so I’m very interested. 

RB – I’ll be honest, it’s going to be difficult to not play Davante Adams at what amounts to the same exact price. However, I don’t think I’ll be alone in that thought process and Aaron Jones could well turn into an elite pivot. Pittsburgh does rank sixth in DVOA against the run so far but Joe Mixon found some success last week and the Packers are very unlikely to just abandon the run completely. In addition, only Henry and CMC have more RZ rushes than 13 for Jones and he’s tacked on five targets. That’s six RZ touches per game to this point which is the most among backs and if he finds the end zone instead of Adams, we know what the upside is and it is extreme. 

WR – I know it can be tough to narrow things down but Davante Adams has to be very high on the list of my favorite plays on the slate. He is unstoppable and past Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the secondary for Pittsburgh is not great. Adams is first in receptions, fourth in yards, seventh in yards per route, eighth in RZ targets, and second in target share at 37.4%. He should not be under $8,000 on the main slate for any reason. 

We can also continue to plays Marquez Valdes-Scantling since he only needs one big play to pay off and he’s number one in unrealized air yards. I can’t imagine that continues with Rodgers as his quarterback and only six of his 16 targets have been ruled catchable. Sometimes air yards can be a bit misleading because air yards don’t always translate to catchable passes. When there’s a poor quarterback, I’d be concerned. That’s about as far as possible from the case here. MVS also has three EZ targets, which lead the team right now. No other player outside of Jones has a target share over 6% so we can move on. 

Update – MVS is out and Adams is just going to smash.

TE – Robert Tonyan is really in an odd spot as far as salary. There are multiple options that are cheaper than he is that I would rather play because Tonyan has been exactly what we thought he would be – touchdown or bust. He’s 30th in receptions and 31st in yardage while sitting 25th in routes. If we’re playing these types of tight ends, just play Gesicki and hope Miami keeps him running routes. 

D/ST – If you just despise the punt options, I guess you can go here even though Green Bay has just five sacks and is 26th in DVOA. The Steelers offense and the play of the quarterback and offensive line equal things out, however. 

Cash Plays – Adams, Rodgers, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Jones

Ravens at Broncos, O/U of 45 (Broncos -1)

Ravens 

QB – This is a pretty interesting spot for Lamar Jackson and one I believe gets very little attention. Nobody is going to play him with the options around him. If the Ravens can’t get much going through the air against the secondary of Denver, Lamar will have even more incentive to take off out of the pocket and that just raises the floor and ceiling. He’s already at 251 rushing yards on 35 carries, both easily the first among quarterbacks. Now you add in the 761 passing yards and it’s easy to see why he’s fourth in FPDB on the young season. Denver is fifth against the pass in DVOA and they are under 600 yards allowed. Don’t forget, they have faced Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawerence, and Zach Wilson so far. Lamar has his warts but he is far better than those players at this juncture. 

RB – I feel like we need an ESPN 30 For 30 short just to explain why on this good Earth Ty’Son Williams suddenly only had five carries while Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman combined for 10. A week after coach John Harbaugh was praised for making the correct decision to go for it on 4th down against the Chiefs, he turns around and lets this happen. Now they have to go into Denver and face the eighth-ranked DVOA defense against the run and I’m not going to chase much here. Williams is averaging 6.1 YPC to 3.5 for Murray and Freeman has only had five attempts so far. Williams has shown some issues with ball security and blitz pickups, but if that didn’t get him in hot water against KC I’m not sure why it would now. Baltimore’s run game can make bad matchups irrelevant, but it won’t matter for fantasy with this three-way split. 

WR – My word, it should have been a massive day for Marquise Brown last week with multiple drops that really hampered his day. He leads the team in targets, air yards, RZ targets, and EZ targets but this matchup is not going to be easy. This is a tougher spot as Kyle Fuller and Patrick Surtain are both under a 60% completion rate allowed and under a 1.80 FPPT. Denver is also inside the top 10 in yards allowed against receivers but the price is right for GPP contests. Sammy Watkins only has 12 receptions so far and he could wind up being the third option in this offense. I’d rather not attack the corners here and would just play the tight end. 

TE – Mark Andrews had the game that some of his metrics had pointed to since he’s been running the 10th most routes and he has the fifth-most air yards. He’s still looking for his first trip to the end zone but just sitting seventh and fourth in receptions and yards is enough for him to be the TE9 on the season. We all know that he won’t go very long without a score but it is odd to see him have no RZ targets thus far. Denver has allowed basically zero production against the position but we have to consider the schedule and Andrews is easily the best one they have faced so far. With the potential of the corners muting the receivers, Andrews could wind up being the best player from this team. 

D/ST – Denver has only turned the ball over twice and Baltimore has only got home five times while sitting 20th in DVOA. I want some upside at their salary and I’m not sure if they have it this week. 

Cash Plays – Andrews, Jackson 

GPP Plays – Brown 

Broncos 

QB – Teddy Bridgewater had his first dud of a game on the season but we kind of saw that coming. He only had to throw the ball 25 times and there were no touchdowns to be had so the score looks very poor. He’s still 11th in yards, seventh in air yards, eighth in YPA, and 18th in FPDB. Baltimore has been vulnerable against the pass so far and ranks 20th in DVOA along with the third-most passing yards allowed. I don’t have a giant need for Teddy B, but I expect a much better game from him this week. 

RB – Speaking of split backfields, here’s Denver and the duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I think Williams is the better player and he’s evaded 14 tackles already, good for fifth in the league. I give credit for MG3 breaking a big run in Week 1, but that has skewed many metrics toward him including rushing yards and YPC. Still, all of this is a theoretical exercise. This is how much weight my thoughts on the split matter – 

It doesn’t matter if I think Javonte is better because the Broncos are 3-0 and this duo is doing everything they’re asked to do. The coaching staff is absolutely not changing what is working right now since Denver is tied for seventh in rushing yards per game. Gordon has a small edge in RZ work, targets, and carries so even though the receiving corps is suddenly thinner than we thought, Gordon is likely the better play this week against Baltimore and the 10th ranked DVOA against the run. 

Update – Gordon has been limited all week and is questionable, which would be awesome for Williams but the jury is out on if MG3 plays.

WR – A strength of this team has turned thin awfully quick with Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick the final two players of fantasy relevance. The stats for Patrick don’t exactly speak to his role in this offense that he’s going to have now and the good news is he’s not moving from the slot to outside. Patrick was already playing on the outside which helps. He’s already second in receptions on the team with Sutton leading and Patrick has three RZ targets as well. Corners Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey are on the other side and Smith has only been targeted three times in his one game. Humphrey hasn’t been playing the slot as much since they are missing players and has been allowing a 2.00 FPPT so far across 21 targets. I prefer Patrick and the savings, but both players should start seeing 6-8 targets at a minimum this week. 

TE – The Broncos didn’t have to keep their foot on the gas last week and I hope that’s the only reason Noah Fant was targeted just three times in that game. With the loss of Jeudy and Hamler, this passing game is a lot more narrow than it was just three weeks ago. Hamler and Jeudy accounted for 17 targets in their partial games and Fant was already running the 12th most routes among tight ends. His target rate of 23.9% is almost guaranteed to go up from here on out and his salary is reasonable. I still would be careful after what Baltimore did against Hockenson last week. They have faced Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Hock so far so the production they have given up is likely not indicative of where they end the year at. 

D/ST – Likewise, I think the Broncos are too expensive for the matchup. This is a good defense, sitting fifth in DVOA overall, they have five takeaways, and they have eight sacks. Jackson has been sacked eight times but he can also escape like basically no other player in the league. I do like the secondary can likely stifle his receivers but the price is just too high for my builds. 

Cash Plays – Patrick, Fant, Sutton 

GPP Plays – Teddy B, MG3, Williams 

Cash Core 4

Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Evan Engram, Odell Beckham

GPP Core 4

Travis Kelce, Robby Anderson, Darrell Henderson, Devonta Smith

Stacks

Chiefs/Eagles – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, CEH – Run Backs – Smith, Sanders, Reagor, Hurts

Cards/Rams – Stafford, Kupp, Woods, Jefferson, Higbee – Run Backs – Kirk, Green, Edmonds, Nuk, Kyler

Seahawks/49ers – Russ, DK, Lockett, Dissly – Run Backs – Aiyuk, Samuel, RB (need clarity there), Kittle

Panthers/Cowboys – Darnold, Anderson, Moore, Hubbard, Tremble – Run Backs – Lamb, Cooper, Zeke, Schultz, Dak

Browns/Vikings – OBJ, Hunt, Chubb – Run Backs – Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, Conklin, Cousins

Steelers/Packers – Rodgers, Adams, Jones – Run Backs – Diontae, Freiermuth

Punts to Make Things Work – This is just my personal pool of players that I’m considering and I try to avoid using two in the same lineup

RB – Michael Carter, Cordarrelle Patterson and maybe Javonte Williams (Jus if Mitchell is out and you’re crazy)

WR – Curtis Samuel, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Collin Johnson, D-Jax

TE – Tommy Tremble or Will Dissly

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport 

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3

Week 2 reminded us of the volatility of the NFL as our cash games carried the banner. I want to talk about that real quick because I saw a lot of bankroll spent on GPP and not enough in cash. Always make sure if you hit cash games, you walk away with some profit even if your GPP (like mine) gets rocked. It’s a vital step in building bankroll. Now, let’s get rolling for the 13 game NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3 and figure out where our paths are going for all formats this week!

Washington at Buffalo, O/U of 45.5 (Bills -7.5)

Washington

QB – Washington didn’t have any fears with Taylor Heinicke at the helm because they had him throw 46 times compared to just 17 carries for their running back tandem. He completed over 73% of those attempts but his receivers worked hard to make that happen. His accuracy was very questionable as far as putting the ball in the right spot to help his receivers. There is definitely talent around him and he’s inside the top 12 in yards coming from play-action pass attempts. The larger issue is the Bills have only allowed the third-fewest yards and have a 1:1 TD:INT ratio this year. The schedule has been super soft but they sit third in DVOA, meaning I’ll find another cheap option. 

RB – It’s never a good thing to overreact in fantasy, especially when you see J.D. McKissic significantly out-produce Antonio Gibson. The funny thing is Gibson has 33 carries in two games to just five for McKissic so remember that Gibson is sitting inside the top 10 when it comes to carries in the NFL. They are both tied with seven targets which is a 10.7% target share each and Gibson didn’t seem to be much of an option for Heinicke. The young quarterback seemed intent to continue to throw hospital balls to receivers than check down to Gibson and take some free yards. Buffalo has been stout against the run game so far this year, only allowing 108 rushing yards through two games so far. They’ve also yet to allow a touchdown on the ground nor through the air so it’s not the best spot ever. He’s going to tempt me since he’s under $6,000 on DK but some more involvement in the passing game would be nice. 

WR – For at least one game, the fears of quarterback play with Terry McLaurin fell by the wayside. He walked right through a tough matchup in corner James Bradberry and went nuts for an 11/107/ line. He has yet to miss a snap on the season, has a 33.2% air yards share, and a commanding 27.7% target share. Nobody else on the team is higher than 15.4%. Tre White and company await on the other side and he’s not a high priority, but matchup has little to nothing to do with it. It has far more to do with the players around him in salary. Scary Terry is only 34th in air yards share but he’s fourth in receptions, a fine tradeoff since he can make so much happen with the ball in his hands. 

Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown are both much thinner options even though they have surpassed a 65% snap share this season. They are tied with 10 targets apiece and Humphries displayed a better connection with Heinicke on Thursday, catching seven of his eight targets but just for 45 yards. He’s running the majority out of the slot and is the safety blanket in the offense. His aDOT of 2.8 yards compared to 12.6 for Brown perfectly illustrates their roles and Humphries is the safer player. Having said that, neither is the strongest option on this slate. 

TE – We don’t get better than 100% of the snaps, which is what Logan Thomas played on Thursday night. He saw seven targets which is great but did finish third in targets on the team behind Terry McLaurin and Adam Humphries. He also wasn’t targeted in the RZ out of the four attempts Heinicke had in this game. The Bills haven’t faced a great tight end yet but have only allowed 90 yards and no touchdowns. Thomas is fine and he runs plenty of routes, but I don’t view him as anything else than a cash option as the “last man in” style player. 

D/ST – They are wildly cheap against an offense that hasn’t started clicking quite yet, but their play on Thursday night was not encouraging. They are getting pressure over a quarter of the time with six sacks but the secondary is still gelling a little bit and they only have two turnovers forced. Buffalo has allowed a pressure rate of just over 30% so far this year which is sixth-most so if you’re looking for a bargain, Washington at least has some talent and can disrupt a passing game. 

Cash Plays – McLaurin 

GPP Plays – Gibson, Brown, D/ST 

Bills 

QB – It was another tough week for Josh Allen and his completion rate was barely 50%. I grant you the Dolphins corners do present a challenge but this is certainly not the start anyone expected for Allen this season. He is still chucking it deep, sitting fifth in air yards on the season and that’s a good sign. It means there is still a lot of room to grow as far as production and honestly, after seeing Danny Dimes hurt this Washington defense I could see the explosion happening this week. Allen can stand up to a pass rush and Washington is flirting with allowing 300 yards per game. They also simply could not figure out Jones running the football and he almost had 100 yards rushing! It was the same style of play over and over and I think Allen hits 50 yards rushing without much of an issue this week. When a couple of deep passes connect, he’s going to go nuts and we’re not getting him at $7,000 very often. 

RB – Zack Moss made his return to the lineup on Sunday and recorded 10 touches but his fantasy value was inflated by two touchdowns. He had three attempts in the RZ, cashing in two and 12 of his 16 DK points came just from that. I’m saying that to illustrate the difficulty of picking between him and Devin Singletary because Singletary lapped Moss in snap percentage at 66% to 27%. The RZ attempts for Singletary were equal this week at three and the targets were only three to two in favor of Singletary. This might just come down to who scores each week but for right now, Singletary is in the lead in this committee for only $200 more. I don’t think either is any type of need in either format. 

WR – Stefon Diggs has had pretty much the exact same start to his season that Allen has had. He’s been good, but far from great with just 16 points in each contest so far. If you’re spending up, you want a lot more than that but the metrics are all encouraging for Diggs. He leads in target share at 28%, air yards share at 35.3%, and he has the most RZ and EZ targets on the team. It sort of feels like a matter of time here. Diggs has been playing more than 80% on the outside which means he should face William Jackson for a good portion of the game. Jackson has had a strong start to the season, allowing just a 1.25 FPPT but Diggs is one of the best in the league. 

Emmanuel Sanders continues to have a massive aDOT at 17.4 yards but the connection just hasn’t been there quite yet. He only has six receptions on 14 targets thus far but this could be the game where he pops off. If Jackson is concentrating on Diggs, Sanders is going to get rookie Benjamin St. Juste who has allowed a 12.1 YPR on eight receptions so far. Cole Beasley is still a little cheap, but not my favorite play. We saw Washington get smoked out of the slot by Sterling Shepard and that’s where the weakness is in the secondary. Beasley is totally fine on PPR sites since he still has a 21.8% target share on the season. What’s most surprising is Kendall Fuller has played almost 60% in the slot so far for Washington. It hasn’t gone well as he’s allowed a catch rate over 71% and a passer rating of 94. 

TE – Dawson Knox is a touchdown or bust player with only seven targets so far this year and under 60 yards receiving. He’s only been the fifth option in the passing game thus far and is playing under 70% of the snaps so far. He does at least split out into the slot or out wide around 50% of his snaps but the play is thin even at the price. With some of the other options at the position, it’s hard to dip down that low. 

D/ST – For the second straight week, Buffalo gets a backup quarterback but this week you have to pay for them. They have forced three turnovers on the season and have the second-most sacks at eight to go with their 33% pressure rate. They are also top-four in quarterback hurries so this is a unit that can get after the quarterback. If Heinicke continues to throw the ball high over the middle, it’s going to end poorly so if they fit, Buffalo is a strong option as they are also ranked second in total DVOA. 

Cash Plays – Allen, Diggs, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Sanders, Singletary

Bears at Browns, O/U of 45.5 (Browns -7)

QB – It sure looks like Justin Fields will be in line to start this week and I’m willing to start him. Before he got hurt, Tyrod Taylor was ripping this Cleveland defense apart and Fields had Allen Robinson drop a touchdown last week which would have made his line look far better. Will Fields be perfect? Absolutely not but he’ll have a full week to prepare and he rushed for 31 yards in just part of a game. I’ll grant you that they faced Patrick Mahomes but they rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and they have already given up five passing touchdowns and two on the ground. Fields has the rushing ability to make up for a turnover or two and he could approach 20 DK here. 

Update – Fields is officially the starter for Week 3 and will be my cash game quarterback

RB – It was a tough week statistically for David Montgomery last week with only 10.9 DK points but you have to love another 23 touches and trust that leads to better results. Now, it may not be the best matchup ever with Cleveland only giving up 117 rushing yards so far against running backs but you can easily argue that Monty will be the best one they have faced up to this point. We also simply do not get backs with this type of touch equity at this price and he has five RZ attempts as well. 

WR – There are really only two options for the Bears right now in Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, both of whom have played over 85% of the snaps. Mooney leads in air yards share at 37.5% but they are tied with 15 targets each to lead the team. What’s nice is Denzel Ward doesn’t typically shadow other receivers and A-Rob has kicked into the slot 36.6% of the time so far this year. The bad news for Robinson is he’s sitting 80th in yards run per route at 0.98. I wish he was running a more diverse set of routes, but Fields should be able to access the ceiling a little bit more than Dalton could. 

The same could be said for Mooney and he has the highest aDOT on the team. It’s only 8.6 yards but it’s still the team lead so that’s something. Mooney has been playing more outside than Robinson so far and that could leave him with a softer matchup in Greg Newsome. The Cleveland corner has played over 80% of the snaps and has only been targeted once, but I’d still rather face him than Ward. Mooney is really cheap and could fly under the radar. 

TE – I might be fine with Fields, but playing Cole Kmet isn’t all that appealing. He went from seven targets in Week 1 to just one last week even though he was still on the field a lot at 72% of the snaps. Kmet has run a route on 68% of the dropbacks for any Bears quarterback, which is encouraging and I don’t expect a one DK point as a result again. Even with the Browns facing Travis Kelce, they haven’t given up 100 yards to the position yet and only two touchdowns. If you play him, you’d have to hope that Fields leans on him in his first true start. 

D/ST – The Bears have been a strong unit to start the year, ranked ninth in total DVOA and they have a 21.3% pressure rate to go along with four turnovers forced. I think the issue here is Cleveland has not allowed just a 16.9% pressure rate and only four sacks on the season. They do have four turnovers but that is out of character and not a trend I think should continue. Chicago is at a reasonable price point but not my favorite option and they could be put on a short field or two if their rookie quarterback makes a mistake or two. 

Update – They could also be without Eddie Goldman and Tashaun Gipson so I’m even less interested.

Cash Plays – Montgomery, Robinson, Fields 

GPP Plays – Mooney, Kmet 

Browns 

QB – There is rarely a full slate where we’ll be playing Baker Mayfield in part because he is 28th in passing attempts. At some point, you need volume to get the job done or have strong rushing upside and neither is a calling card for Baker. It’s hard to quibble with 40/49 for over 530 yards considering his number one receiver hasn’t played a snap and another went down very early in Week 2. He’s a fine quarterback but he has all of one passing touchdown and he sits 30th in RZ passing attempts with just four. With Chicago sitting ninth in DVOA against the pass, there seems to be little reason to go after this spot. 

RB – I would imagine some of the lack of carries is due to a long 17 game season…but can we get some more work for Nick Chubb, please?? The man is ripping off six yards per carry across just 26 totes to this point. He’s already scored three times and while the YPC is far from everything, it already leads the NFL among players with more than 20 carries (Lamar Jackson is hot on the trail for that one). It can be difficult however to pay this salary for a player that has all of three targets on the year and has not had a role in this passing game dating back to last season if he’s getting 13 carries per game. As wildly efficient as Chubb has been so far, getting to 3x at $7,600 is highly difficult. Kareem Hunt is $2,000 cheaper but he’s not a player that I generally will chase when Chubb is still active. It’s not even the best matchup ever with the Bears giving up about 70 yards per game on the ground to backs. 

WR – It looks like Odell Beckham will be back this week and not a minute too soon. The Browns lost Jarvis Landry last week and the other receivers have combined for seven receptions so far. Last year saw Beckham play on the outside and that would lead him into Jaylon Johnson, who’s making a name for himself in a hurry. He’s been targeted 10 times so far and has only allowed three receptions for a 0.52 FPPT and a 34.5 passer rating allowed. Beckham is cheap, but I don’t think he’s needed and would just reserve him for GPP’s. 

We could maybe use Rashard Higgins who jumped up to 70% of the snaps after Landry left last week. The hope would be he slides into the slot now that Beckham is back and that would be a much softer matchup for him. There is no corner in the Bears secondary to fear outside of Johnson and we saw that last week. The Bears got hurt out of the slot by Tyler Boyd but we’re projecting that role. 

Update – OBJ is in, but be cautious. The team is openly saying they won’t have him just roll in and take every single snap. We thought he’d play two weeks ago so I’m not sold he’s that great of a play this week.

TE – All three of the Browns’ tight ends have played at least 41% of the snaps so far so while Austin Hooper has eight targets, so does David Njoku and Harrison Bryant is at six. Hooper and Njoku have two RZ targets each so there’s no real edge there and the only real edge might be Hooper has a 4.1 aDOT compared to Njoku’s 16.4 mark. Provided Beckham is back in action, I can’t say my interest is that high with a three-way split. I would likely just take Njoku since he saves a couple of bucks and has the same role in the RZ. 

D/ST – The Browns defense has been a disappointing unit so far, with only three sacks and a rank of 26th in total DVOA to this point. They have also only generated two turnovers and while Week 1 was easy to avoid, last week they seemed like a smash play and may have lucked out that Tyrod Taylor got hurt. The trust level isn’t exactly there, but Fields demonstrated he’s likely to make some brilliant plays and some not-so-brilliant plays as well. If Cleveland can’t at least be solid here, there’s a larger issue. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Chubb, Beckham, Baker, Hunt, Higgins

Colts at Titans, O/U of 48 (Titans -5.5)

Colts 

QB – We’ll need to update this section later in the week as we have no clarity on who’s playing. Carson Wentz is banged up again and may not be active. If Jacob Eason has to start, I’d want nothing to do with this offense. 

Update – Wentz practiced Wednesday, which makes me MUCH more comfortable with Taylor and more willing to run him back with a Tennessee receiver.

RB – One of these weeks, Jonathan Taylor is going to break through with multiple touchdowns and at least 80 yards rushing. Of his 32 carries so far this season, 12 have come in the RZ and that leads the NFL. Six of those 12 have come inside the five which to the surprise of nobody, leads the NFL. He’s under $7,000 and that really shouldn’t be the case. There is also a very strong case to be made he could be a pivot away from a very chalky back that sits at $6,500. The efficiency has not been there thus far with only 107 rushing yards on 32 attempts but Tennessee hasn’t totally shut down the ground game to this point. I’m not in love with him only getting 50% of the snaps so far this year and Nyheim Hines(I don’t want to talk about it) getting 41%. However, if JT is going to get that amount of work in the RZ and inside the five, the price justifies the risk. 

WR – It really seems like playing a Colts receiver is going to be a pain every week, as it might rotate with who plays well. Michael Pittman went full ham sandwich last week against the Rams secondary, which was super surprising. He has a 40.5% air yards share to go along with his team-leading 23.2% target share so it’s not a mystery of who the alpha is. It’s more if you can trust the quarterback to actually targets him because in Week 1, he only was targeted four times. Pittman likely would see Kristian Fulton who is allowing a 1.47 FPPT and an 11.7 YPT. 

Zach Pascal has been living on touchdowns with three already and he’s the slot receiver in this offense, running 74.8% of his snaps from the slot to lead the league. A full third of his receptions have gone for scores and he’s cashed in on all three of his EZ targets. If Wentz starts, I’d have some mild interest in GPP but that would be about it. 

TE – I suppose that if you were scraping the bottom, Jack Doyle makes some sense. He’s second in total targets and has a 14.7% target share, not exactly terrible even though the offense as a whole isn’t that great. He’s put significant distance between himself and Mo Alie-Cox who has only seen four targets to this point in the year. Tennessee’s stats against tight ends are irrelevant. They’ve given up all of three yards but they have faced literally nothing at the position. I’m not saying Doyle is special, but he’s easily the most involved tight end they have faced thus far. Don’t let the red “1st” dissuade you here. 

D/ST – The Colts are not a unit to use in this matchup in my eyes, as they only have a 16.7% pressure rate and have been sliced up by passing games so far. The pressure rate allowed by the Titans dropped down considerably in Week 2 and when they’re at their best, they don’t take sacks nor turn it over. Indy is also sitting just 26th in total DVOA, so there are not a lot of signs they’ll turn it around. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Taylor, Pittman, Pascal, Doyle 

Titans 

QB – I’ll let folks look at the stat line from Ryan Tannehill this past week and keep sleeping if they’d like. He had a clear touchdown taken away and one of his receivers had at least four drops in this game, yet still threw for 347 yards. The play-action pass was used more in this game as well at over 30% so that was great to see the Titans get back to what worked so well last season. Lo and behold, Tannehill climbed up to seventh in yards from play-action passing already, another great sign. It’s easier to just chalk Week 1 up to a fluke at that point. Indy is 29th in DVOA against the pass and has gotten scorched for 532 yards and six touchdowns already. The scary part about that is they’ve faced the second-fewest pass attempts at this point so if the volume comes up, the results could still get worse. 

RB – I’m running out of adjectives to describe the ManBeast know as Derrick Henry – 

That statistic defies logic. His salary is understandably high after smashing last week for over 50 DK points, and it will be tough to go for 3x…maybe. What has been fascinating so far this year is Henry has gotten receiving work with 10 targets and nine receptions. I’ll be the first to tell you that I dismissed the idea of Henry getting targets out of hand. He’s never had a track record of it, the team traded for Julio Jones, etc… but the facts remain he’s been much more involved. If he’s even getting trust 2-3 receptions per game that is honestly a big help. What is at least moderately interesting (to me, anyway) is to look at the other season when Todd Downing was an OC for the Raiders. 

It was 2017 so we’re talking four years now but an offense that had Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper threw to the running back 112 times out of 552 passing attempts. Granted, 81 of those targets went to DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard who have some passing chops. Marshawn Lynch saw 31 as well and considering Henry is on the field for over 70% of the snaps, he could really catch 35 passes or so. We’re not talking an apples-to-apples comparison but it’s possible that many in the industry (raises hand) underestimated Henry’s potential role in the passing game. 

WR – I’m not sure who Julio Jones made angry in another life that has made him never score a touchdown, but the man is cursed. Past his usual touchdown hijinks, Julio was back in full force Sunday, easily eclipsing 100 yards. He is still the second receiver in the offense so far since he trails A.J. Brown in targets and air yards. Julio does lead in receptions and yards so far but Brown holds the edge for EZ targets as well. They can be tough to separate since they’re at the same price point. Julio has played almost exclusively on the outside and would face Xavier Rhodes if he’s back in action. Brown would face off against T.J. Carrie for the most part and Carrie has allowed 21.8 YPR, a passer rating of 126, and a catch rate of 71%. I give the lean to Brown because he’s going to want to make up for the multiple drops he had last week and he should never, ever be this cheap.

TE – I don’t believe there is a high end of relevance for Tennessee. Anthony Firkser missed the last game and nobody had more than three targets. MyCole Pruitt and Geoff Swain both played over 62% of the snaps and they combined for five receptions and a total of 53 yards. If Firkser got all of the production, he could be somewhat interesting at $3,100 but with how many two tight end set they used, it wouldn’t be all Firkser. That’s not even mentioning the receiver corps, which has a 54% target share, and Henry’s 13.5% share as well. 

Update – Firkser is out but I still have no interest.

D/ST – Let’s see who starts at quarterback and circle back. Tennessee has managed to record five sacks but only has a 14.1% pressure rate, which is among the six lowest in football. They are also 30th in DVOA and if Wentz starts, I’ll pass. If not, we could be in business at $2,400 in a big way. 

Cash Plays – Henry, Tannehill, Brown, Julio

GPP Plays – D/ST (if Wentz sits)

Falcons at Giants, O/U of 47.5 (Giants -3)

Falcons 

QB – Maybe Matt Ryan isn’t quite dead yet. He threw three interceptions but still scored over 22 DK points and that would be a significant bargain at this salary. He’s eighth in attempts this season and even against the Giants, I don’t think the Falcons blow them out so we should expect another heavy dose of Ryan. The veteran also sits eighth in RZ attempts and New York is 23rd in DVOA with the eighth-most passing yards allowed. Ryan has some weapons that can help goose him to a solid fantasy day this week and the price is certainly right to roll the dice in some GPP lineups. 

RB – We could have a full-time split between Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson but that could be more results-based. Davis still has played almost 70% of the snaps, has a 24-14 lead in rush attempts, and the lead in targets by one. It is interesting to note that Patterson has the lone carry inside the five-yard line and that Patterson has been more effective in the running game with 65 rush yards to 87 for Davis. Patterson has also lapped Davis in receiving yards at 58 to 25 so even though Davis is leading in playing time, Patterson has been extremely effective in his role thus far. New York has allowed the fifth-most yards on the ground and the seventh-most through the air. Even though Patterson isn’t playing a ton of snaps, he seems locked in for at least 10 touches, and at this salary….you could do worse. 

WR – Calvin Ridley hasn’t exactly had a massive start to the season but he still has a 50.6% share of the air yards and he leads in targets and EZ looks. He’s also second in routes run and 11th in unrealized air yards so a lot of his metrics would point to Ridley not being much different than he was last season, past the results. Ridley gets James Bradberry but we saw last week that while Bradberry is a quality corner, he’s not someone we have to fear. It’s only two games but he’s allowed a 2.32 FPPT and a passer rating of 138. It likely isn’t going to hurt Ridley that Russell Gage is going to miss this game with an ankle injury and he was playing about 60% of the snaps with nine targets through two weeks. Olamide Zaccheaus should replace Gage on the field, but the role has not been fantasy-relevant so far. 

TE – There is going to be a game where Kyle Pitts explodes because he saw 55% of his snaps either in the slot or out wide, he said he read coverages better in his second game, and he led the Falcons in targets last week. His air yards share is over 25.8% and he co-leads the team with two RZ targets. The utilization is exactly what we were hoping for when taking Pitts early in drafts and he’s under $5,000 again. The Giants have surrendered the sixth-most yards and two touchdowns against tight ends so far and have faced Logan Thomas and Noah Fant so far this year. Pitts is on his way to be the 1A in this offense and it’s a spot where we want to be ahead of the breakout. 

D/ST – You know your defense isn’t good when I don’t want to attack the Giants offense. Atlanta is sitting in the bottom 10 in pressure rate, has four sacks, 29th in total DVOA, and has forced exactly one turnover. New York has only turned it over once so far and is only allowing a 23.2% pressure rate. 

Cash Plays –Pitts, Ridley, Ryan 

GPP Plays – Patterson 

Giants 

QB – I have to give Daniel Jones some credit for producing for fantasy in two tougher spots. He’s exceeded 22 DK points in each game and while the rushing production isn’t likely to keep up this high, he’s always had some ability with his legs. I think it’s impressive that he only has one turnover on the season and if that aspect of his game gets under control, he could be more trustworthy heading forward. Maybe it’s not fair to say this right after facing Tom Brady, but the Falcons defense leads the league in touchdown passes allowed at eight and is one of seven teams without an interception so far this year. Atlanta is also 27th in DVOA and the passing game could be interesting since this next player will be extremely popular. 

RB – We talked about Jonathan Taylor being a pivot from a chalky player and I’ll be hard-pressed to believe that a $6,500 Saquon Barkley will not be chalk this week. He’ll now have a long week of recovery after two games in four days and we saw some encouraging signs in Week 2. He touched the ball 15 times and he played 84% of the snaps after sitting under 50% in Week 1. Barkley handled the vast majority of running back touches on top of that, which is great to see. Barkley hasn’t had a big game yet but this salary is just absurd in honesty on either site. It will help that Atlanta is already up to 13 receptions allowed to backs, tied for the fifth-most. If Barkley was fully healthy coming into the year, he’d never drop below around $8,000. Take advantage. 

WR – This receiver room is crowded but I’m only looking at one player for the most part. I think Sterling Shepard takes a small step backward with the return of their tight end as those targets will start to get split up. At the highest price point, I’d rather fade Shepard and go with Kenny Golladay. He’s been on the outside almost exclusively and he’s already 14th in air yards among receivers. That would put him mostly on A.J. Terrell, who has played extremely well so far with no receptions allowed on four targets so far. 

Update – Terrell is out for this game, and that really hampers the Falcons secondary. I’m far more interested in players like Slayton or Shepard if Golladay sits out (he remains very questionable). Slayton at $4,600 would ooze upside as he should have had two long touchdowns last week had he not dropped an easy one.

It can be a tough balance to strike because last year, Terrell had a really tough rookie season but he’s a high draft pick and could be getting better in a hurry. Still, Golladay was already yelling on the sidelines about the offense. The squeaky wheel tends to get the grease and this could be the first big game for Golladay in a Giants uniform. On paper, Darius Slayton has the better matchup against Fabian Moreau who has allowed a 77.7 completion rate, a 2.8 FPPT, ad two touchdowns. Slayton has been involved more than you would think with 13 total targets but the retiring tight end looms, as does Barkley being more involved in the offense. 

TE – It looks like Evan Engram will be back in action for this game and if he’s full go, he would be interesting. The price is right and Jones has shown he likes the intermediate area of the field. My guess would be Shepard sees the hit in target share as he and Engram would be the same style of a target. Atlanta has already allowed three touchdowns against tight ends and they’ve faced some good ones. The thing with Engram is at this salary, he doesn’t need to score. Let’s see how the week progresses but he had a 21% target share in 2020. I’m sure Golladay would bite into that but not enough to overlook $3,600. 

D/ST – The Giants are way too expensive for my blood for a team that only has three sacks and a pressure rate under 20%. They also sit in the bottom eight in total DVOA and I have no interest in this salary. 

Cash Plays – Barkley (Shepard would be here if Golladay is out)

GPP Plays – Slayton, Engram, Jones, Shepard 

Chargers at Chiefs, O/U of 55 (Chiefs -6.5)

Chargers

QB – Justin Herbert had to be one of the unluckiest quarterbacks on the week last week. He threw a pick in the EZ which was his own fault but he had two separate touchdowns come off the board due to penalties. hat would have left him flirting with 30 DK points instead of the 19.7 he ended at but regardless of that fact, 2021 has been excellent to start for Herbert. He’s averaging over 300 yards per game through the air and is fourth in passing yards on the third-most attempts. Herbert also sits eighth in air yards and sixth in yards from play-action passing on the most attempts. We love seeing offenses utilize play-action because it just opens everything up for the quarterback and makes their job easier. On top of all that, he’s second in RZ attempts which carry serious touchdown equity. The Chiefs are 25th in DVOA and are going to have a very difficult time containing this passing game. It’s one of the premier shootouts of the week and we should be very interested in stacking as much as we can. 

RB – If the trends from the first couple of weeks hold up, Austin Ekeler is in an amazing spot at a very affordable salary. At his best, he’s a cheaper version of Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in that he’ll have 8-12 rush attempts and then a boatload of receptions, just like Sunday. While I do think the improvements of the offensive line and usage of Mike Williams (more on that in a second) change the complexion of the offense, it was excellent to see Ekeler get nine targets and nine receptions last week. When we’re playing on a PPR scoring site like DK, I want my backs to get a ton of targets even at the expense of rushing attempts. It was against Baltimore, but Kansas City’s defense looked horrid against the run on Sunday night. Ekeler is one of the safest bets for 15+ touches on the board and is a great run-back option in Chiefs’ stacks due to his involvement in the passing game. 

WR – We heard a lot of noise in the offseason that Mike Williams would play a new role in the Joe Lombardi offense and that has been 1,000% true so far this season. He actually leads the team in targets by one but his aDOT has come down to 9.3 and he’s just so much more involved. Gone are the days where you hoped he caught a long ball or two if you played him and he’s deserving of his salary here. Williams should see plenty of Charvarius Ward and Williams has three inches and 20 pounds on the Chiefs corner. Ward has only been targeted five times but he’s allowed a touchdown already.

Update – Ward is questionable but hasn’t practiced all week, and Frank Clark is doubtful. This LA offense couldn’t ask for much of a better spot.

Keenan Allen still rotates into the sot 47.6% of the time and his target rate is more than secure with 21 already. Allen is in the top 10 in air yards and top 20 in yards run per route, a great combo when you’re getting the target volume that he does. L’Jarius Sneed would likely see the most of Allen and Sneed played well last year, but Allen moves around so much that he’s pretty much matchup proof. I’d let the popularity decide here who we should play. f Allen draws the most, we can be underweight on him and overweight on Williams. 

TE – As it stands, Jared Cook is third in target share in the Chargers offense but Ekeler is hot on his heels. He’s also under 60% of the snaps which doesn’t exactly help and neither does Williams emerging in his new role. His most realistic appeal is a cheap piece of a shootout game that had a touchdown taken away last week and he could be a way to get into this game at a less popular route. 

D/ST – We do not play defenses against Kansas City in Kansas City. 

Update – Lineman Joey Bosa hasn’t practiced all week and corner Chris Harris is already out. This game should have some serious fireworks. YOU NEED EXPOSURE to this game in all formats, realistically.

Cash Plays – Herbert, Allen, Ekeler, Williams 

GPP Plays – Cook 

Chiefs 

QB – It’s a rare player that can go for 343/3/1 on a 77% completion rate and you can safely say they didn’t play their best game. The interception from Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night helped doom the Chiefs and even though he made a couple of signature throws it was weird to see his receivers do a lot of the work as well. Baltimore really bottled up Mahomes and the deep ball ability, which at least has the possibility of happening again. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards on the season and that’s even with playing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. However, LAC ranks 18th in DVOA so by no means am I telling you to not play Mahomes. He’s fourth in passing yards and has six touchdown passes already. I will say if Herbert comes in at half the rostership, it could be an interesting pivot in this game. 

RB – Clyde Edwards-Helaire is priced next to Devin Singletary…and I don’t have an overwhelming need to go after him this week. He’s getting the snaps and the usage but he’s just not turning it into much of anything. CEH has almost 85% of the team’s rushing attempts by a running back and has 89 total rushing yards for a meager 3.3 YPC. There was hope that with the departure of Sammy Watkins, he could be a bigger part of the passing game but he has exactly three targets this year. That’s only two more than a devastating fumble that helped cost them the game in Baltimore and this could go one of two ways. I could see the general lack of efficiency and the fumble costing him playing time or I could see Andy Reid feeding him until he scores. If he’s very unpopular in comparison to the passing game, maybe we could pivot. Past that, I can’t say I’m in love here. 

WR – There are only two receivers with a target share over 10% right now and it’s Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, and Hardman only has eight receptions and 74 yards through two games. I have a feeling that Hill won’t see another game of just four targets anytime soon because the Chiefs offense just can’t function like that. Mahomes and the crew pulled out points in Baltimore, but make no mistake – this offense is Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. That’s it, that’s the list. Reek still has a target share of over 30% and his air yards share is over 40% as well, the 12th highest in the league. He’s seventh in yards per route run at 3.46 yards and this could be the bounce-back game. The Chargers have strong corners in Michael Davis, Chris Harris, and rookie Asante Samuel but none of those three run a sub 4.4 40-yard dash. I will continue to not be that interested in Hardman or anyone else in the corps. 

TE – It truly doesn’t seem like Travis Kelce is priced correctly with his upside and floor combo. He rarely leaves the field and has a 23.8% target share on the season with just a 14.3% air yards share. The air yards are low but he’s working the closest to the line of scrimmage for Mahomes, raising the reception floor. The Chargers have been good against the tight end but Kelce breaks all matchups and I would have no fears even with safety Derwin James back there. Kelce and Hill would be a rare combo of double run back if we go with Herbert/Williams or Allen, as an example.

D/ST – The Chiefs defense frankly looks terrible. They are 31st in DVOA all around and have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in football. Considering Herbert isn’t pressured more than 19% of the time, I can’t see the reason to go here. I doubt Herbert makes the same mistakes Lamar Jackson did last week. 

Cash Plays – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill

GPP Plays – CEH 

Bengals at Steelers, O/U of 43.5 (Steelers -3)

Bengals 

QB – I may not be in love with the pace the Bengals are playing at right now (27th in the NFL, which isn’t the most sensical approach with their personnel in my eyes), but I like Joe Burrow a little bit here. The Steelers’ defense is beaten up in a big way, and injuries to key players could really change this game. Pittsburgh is down to 19th in DVOA and that’s after playing so well against Buffalo in Week 1. Only four teams have allowed more passing yards than the Steelers right now and Coach Zac Taylor has to realize that’s the route to beat them and let Burrow throw more than the 27 and 30 attempts he’s had so far. I get that he’s coming off a major injury but the Bengals offense won’t hit a ceiling with Burrow sitting 22nd in passing attempts. This could be the spot where the volume rises and Burrow (and his receivers) are plenty cheap this week. 

RB – I actually think the Steelers lose this game at this juncture but I’m not convinced it would be on the back of Joe Mixon. He did get another 21 touches this past week and the Bengals are committed to him as their three-down workhorse, but the Steelers defense has still smothered the run game early in the season. They have yet to allow a score and have only surrendered 171 total scrimmage yards across two games. They did suffer plenty of injuries on the defensive side, including lineman Tyson Alualu and linebacker T.J. Watt. However, Watt’s absence will hurt the pass rush more than anything else and they have shown vulnerability through the air. I’ll take Cincinnati’s passing game in this one. 

WR – Based on alignments so far, Ja’Marr Chase would avoid a lot of Joe Haden (if he’s even active) and that’s a nice bonus for Chase. He’s leading the team in air yard share by a lot at 44.3% and is in the top 20 in yards run per route at 2.63. Sutton has allowed a 1.8 FPT, 118 passer rating, and a completion rate of 78.5%. That would mean Tee Higgins would face Haden if he plays but Higgins has one thing the other two receivers don’t so far – RZ and EZ targets, three and two respectively. He works the intermediate part of the field with a 9.2 aDOT and if the Steelers have issues getting to the passer, these receivers should have their way. That includes Tyler Boyd who is in the top-five in slot rate so far. Let’s see how the injury report shakes out for Pittsburgh but I’m really liking the cheap Bengals passing game cogs and would rank them right as their salary already does. 

Update – Higgins is not expected to play, and that is a major bump to Chase and Boyd. Taking a target leader away from an offense is a huge deal, and I’ll be playing Boyd in cash on GPP. I would also rank Chase slightly higher than Marquise Brown, who we’ll get to later.

TE – C.J. Uzomah is not be used in the offense as he’s played 73% of the snaps and has just four targets on the season. 

D/ST – This is potentially the salary saver at the position. The Steelers’ offensive line has allowed a 31.2% pressure rate and the Raiders hit the quarterback 10 times last week. The Bengals have six sacks already and the fourth-highest blitz rate in football. That could cause some serious issues for Pittsburgh and their offense looks painful at the moment. Cincinnati is surprisingly seventh in overall DVOA and they likely shouldn’t be this cheap. 

Cash Plays – Boyd, Chase, Burrow, D/ST

GPP Plays – Mixon

Steelers 

QB – We’re only two weeks in but it’s time to sound the alarm on Ben Roethlisberger and the majority of the Steelers offense. Big Ben looks 100% washed up and he just doesn’t have the physical tools needed to be an NFL quarterback consistently. I was ready to accept that last year was partly a product of intense rehab on the elbow but he didn’t have that this season and he won’t throw to the middle of the field at all over 10 yards. 

Most of the routes toward the boundary are jump balls to Chase Claypool and you can see it’s just not really there for Big Ben. He’s yet to exceed 15 DK points and there are at least seven options under $6,000 that I would rather play than Roethlisberger as he’s dealing with a pectoral injury on top of everything else. 

RB – This one hurts but I think we take our solid Najee Harris week from last week and feel lucky. I’m just not sure how much we can trust him in this dysfunctional offense. Not only does the quarterback look absolutely cooked, but the offensive line also isn’t doing him many favors. He’s in the 40’s among running backs in yards before contact, which is not great. It was encouraging to see him get five targets last week and that should be able to keep him somewhat afloat at this salary, but there are a lot of concerns around him. Cincinnati has allowed 16 receptions to running backs, already tied for the fourth-most so I don’t want to take Najee totally out of play. I just don’t believe he’s a strong cash play like I did last week. 

WR – The plays from this portion of the offense hinge on a lot of injury clarity right now. Diontae Johnson suffered a knee injury on the last play that he was on the field for no real reason and could miss this week. The quarterback could be out. If Johnson and Ben are in, Diontae is still a strong PPR option. He has a 30.6% target share, which really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Chase Claypool continues to be used as a “deep threat”, better known as Ben will just lob a frozen turkey 20 yards down the boundary and hope Claypool makes a play (and he hasn’t done it often thus far). That leaves JuJu Smith-Schuster as the short field target with a 4.5 aDOT and a target share of just 20.8%. That’s a fairly low-value role and in honesty, Adam Humphries is playing almost the same exact role for $3,700 compared to $6,000 for JuJu. I’m not interested unless Johnson doesn’t play. 

Update – Diontae is indeed out, and JuJu should see at least 10 targets. I’ll be totally honest that I don’t particularly care for him, so I have bias. I’m not paying $6,000 for 8/55/0 myself. There are far too many other receivers with more tangible upside. Ben is killing this offense, and that pains me to say it. James Washington could enter the discussion, but I’m not sure how we trust Ben to get him the ball.

TE – If you play anyone, it’s Pat Freiermuth ahead of Eric Ebron. The rookie has played a few more snaps at 54.4% but the target share just isn’t there yet. Freiermuth only has five targets on the season and Ebron is at four, both under 7%. Perhaps if Johnson is out, we can circle back. 

D/ST – Typically against the Bengals, I’d be in. Burrow is under pressure over 30% of the time but Pittsburgh is only blitzing 9.5% of the time and is ranked 14th in total DVOA, well below their standards. Missing multiple key pieces isn’t going to help them either. There is no chance I spend on them this week, as I would gladly play Buffalo. 

Update – Haden is ready to go, but rotational pass rusher Alex Highsmith is out and Watt is highly questionable.

Cash Plays – JuJu

GPP Plays – Harris, Claypool, D/ST 

Ravens at Lions, O/U of 49.5 (Ravens -9)

Ravens 

QB – I would likely just find $500 and play the highest salaried quarterback on the slate but Lamar Jackson is more than appealing as well. There’s even an opportunity to stack him, which is something we haven’t said very often since so much of Jackson’s appeal is his rushing numbers. He recovered from one hideous interception on Sunday night to post 37 DK points with over 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The Lions are now on a short week and have some injuries of their own in the secondary, missing at least Jeff Okudah. We should pay no attention to the fact they’ve given up seven rushing yards against quarterbacks because they have played statues so far. Jackson is an elite option on the slate as they rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run. Good luck stopping Jackson in this spot. 

RB – At least as it stands, Ty’Son Williams is still the lead back after having another week of double-digit carries and 48.6% of the snaps. If he just holds onto the ball, he has a touchdown last week to go with 13 carries, 77 yards on the ground, and two more targets (he caught both). The fact that he’s still under $6,000 makes him appealing since we could still be in line for 15 touches against a porous run defense and Williams is a cog in the NFL’s leading rushing attack. Philadelphia is second in rushing yards per game at 162 while Baltimore is at 220. Even with Jackson and Latavius Murray to compete with for carries, that’s an awful lot to go around. If Williams had scored, he’d be coming into this game averaging over 17 DK points through the first two contests. I’d rather pay the extra $500 even though Murray could certainly score as well with two touchdowns already on just 19 carries. Murray seems far more unstable and reliant on touchdowns. 

WR – I get the feeling that the second I want to buy into Marquise Brown that he could let me down, but he’s really coming on strong and playing the way he has been expected to since he was drafted. Over his last 10 games dating back to last year, he’s not dropped under 12.5 DK and he has six over 15.2 DK with three over 20. Listen, he’s not going to be a volume monster but his speed and playmaking with the ball make up for that. He has an air yards share of 39.3% and the target share is just under 30%. In addition, he’s been the man in the RZ with three targets there and three EZ targets as well. Sammy Watkins mirrors the air yards and target share but Hollywood has been the better player. Detroit is also already down two corners so even though I don’t expect 10+ targets, Hollywood should be able to break a big play or two here. 

TE – I don’t think many expected Mark Andrews to be third in targets through two weeks but that’s where the offense is. What has really hurt him so far this year is he has zero RZ and EZ targets. If he’s not going to be a priority in that portion of the field, it will be tough for him to have a good year and be worth playing most weeks. Now, it’s only been two weeks so you don’t want to totally overreact but Brown is playing like an alpha in a passing game right now. Baltimore is tied for the fourth-fewest pass attempts on the season and if Andrews is third in that attack with limited touchdown equity, it’s a disaster. 

D/ST – I don’t think we’ve seen Baltimore sitting in the bottom-three in pressure rate very often, but they are only at 11.8% so far this year. They’ve dialed back their blitz rate with the injuries they’ve had to deal with but if they can’t get home, it’s tough to do much else. They sit 23rd in total DVOA and they’re a fine option given the opponent, but not anything I’m jamming into the lineup. 

Cash Plays – Lamar, Brown, Williams

GPP Plays – Andrews, Watkins, Murray, D/ST 

Lions 

QB – Baltimore has given up the most passing yards in football but I’m more than nervous to play Jared Goff. When the protection is good and he can just distribute the ball, Goff can play well but when he’s getting pressured and off his spot, things tend to crumble for him in a hurry. Goff is 11th in air yards and I’ll bet that he makes a couple of big-time throws to beat the blitz for a big play or two. The Lions aren’t using play-action with just six attempts for Goff, which doesn’t make much sense considering their running backs. Goff has been much better for fantasy than some realized but I believe that hits a bump in the road this week, although the Ravens’ poor pressure rate has to be noted here. 

RB – This flies in the face of what we talked about with the Ravens, but I don’t love paying this salary for D’Andre Swift in what looks like a full-blown timeshare. Yes, Williams is in the exact same boat as Baltimore but he’s in the leading rushing attack in the NFL. Swift is not and he has split snaps with Jamaal Williams right about at 65% to 35% so far. I thought maybe Swift was being babied on Monday due to injury, but he played the garbage time series down by 18 with under three minutes to go. The Lions are just splitting touches in a big way right now. 

Even less encouraging for Swift is Williams has been seeing just as many touches. They both crushed in Week 1 but we saw what happened on Monday night and that was they just cannibalized each other. Even through injuries, Baltimore has been strong against the run with only 89 rushing yards allowed. They have been susceptible through the air so far with 12/112 but it would boil down to this – would I rather play Ty’Son in a smash spot with the chance at a touchdown or Swift and hope he catches a bunch of passes? For me, I’ll side with Ty’Son. I do have to add that Coach Dan Quinn went out of his way to say they need to have more passing plays for Swift, which is great to hear. I still side with Ty’Son but it’s an awful lot closer now. 

WR – I still lean heavily toward not playing any receiver, but if Tyrell Williams is out again, we can take a look at Quintez Cephus. He does have some regression red flags since he’s only playing 55.7% of the snaps and only has a 15.4% target share. However, he’s still under $4,000 and has found the EZ twice while flashing big-play ability here and there. Marlon Humphrey is not playing as much slot corner since the Ravens have had so many injuries and would see some of Cephus. Humphrey has had an adjustment period with a 1.9 FPPT and 149 yards allowed, which is out of character a little bit. If Williams is in, that changes some things. 

TE – One of the reasons Andrews has little interest for me is T.J. Hockenson is on the other side for $200 more. He’s second among tight ends in targets, co-leads in EZ targets, leads in receptions, and is the TE3 in PPR scoring. If you aren’t spending up on Kelce, Hock could be the next best option and I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up being a chalky cash tight end. Goff loves him and he’s a focal point in the passing game with some weaker receivers around him. The salary is a bargain. 

D/ST – Nope. 

Cash Plays – Hockenson

GPP Plays – Swift, Cephus, Goff, Williams 

Saints at Patriots, O/U of 42.5 (Patriots -2.5)

Saints 

QB – Jameis Winston is one of the easiest fades of the week in my eyes, not that it’s a hot take. “Bad Jameis” was in full effect in Week two with a 50% completion rate and two picks and was a stark reminder of how little New Orleans has on offense. I don’t expect Jameis to throw four picks like Zach Wilson did last week, but we know that Bill Belichick’s defenses force mistakes. With no realistic receiving threats, the New England game plan will almost certainly be to load up on Kamara and let Jameis make a bonehead throw or two. 

RB – So…that was quite the terrible game for Alvin Kamara on Sunday. He only managed to gain 30 total yards and this is not the spot that screams “get right”. New England has allowed 202 rushing yards but it does not appear that the Saints offense has much to offer outside of Kamara. The receiving corps is not giving them any production and past touchdowns for their tight ends in Week 1, this offense has not produced very much. Kamara has always been a focal point for opposing teams but this is a different level of the Saints not have a legitimate other threat in the offense. Bill Belichick always has a history of taking away the number one option and forcing you to take another route to win. New Orleans is not set up for that and even if they were, it leaves me very low on Kamara. 

WR – We’re just going to keep this short and say that no Saints receiver has given us any reason to play them so far. Marquez Callaway has been targeted all of six times so far and Deonte Harris is playing 45% of the snaps, which is the second-most among receivers on the team. Even at cheaper salaries, there’s no meat on the bone and Jameis can’t be trusted to get them the ball. 

TE – Aside from Juwan Johnson catching two touchdowns in Week 1, the Saints’ tight ends have done virtually nothing this season. Adam Trautman saw a 30% target share in Week 1 and then wasn’t targeted in Week 2. With the expectation of the Saints and Winston scuffling in New England, I’m not putting them in my player pool. 

D/ST – I’ll be happier if they get corner Marshon Lattimore back in action, but the Saints are a fine option. The Patriots’ offense has not been anything to be scared of at this point and New Orleans is a top-five defense in total DVOA. They also sit in the top 10 in pressure rate and have four turnovers forced already. 

Update – Lattimore and fellow defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson are in for this game.

Cash Plays – D/ST 

GPP Plays – Kamara 

Patriots 

QB – Likewise, an easy pass on Mac Jones on this side of the game. He’s only thrown one touchdown and this game is about tied for the lowest O/U of the week, not something we want a heavy piece of. Jones is barely averaging 230 passing yards on the season so far and even though New Orleans scuffled a little bit, they were missing two corners and the Carolina offense has far more skill position players that can actually do damage. Even at $5,100, we don’t need to go here. Just play Field and at least get some rushing upside for a safer floor. New Orleans is still a top 12 unit against the pass as far as DVOA goes on top of everything else. 

RB – We’re back to the normal Patriots backfield where Damien Harris and James White are splitting snaps and both have very distinct roles. Harris is the hammer back with 39 carries on the season and he’s eighth in rushing yards with a touchdown. He’s also being targeted at just a 6% target share while White is second on the team in targets at 13, two fewer than the team lead. White continues to be viable on PPR sites like DK and when we look at this matchup, he might have the better chance at a fantasy-relevant day. The Saints defense is tied for the sixth-most rushing attempts faced so far but have only given up the eighth-fewest yards. They sit at 124 yards given up on the ground and it’s been 85 yards through the air (duly noted that they faced CMC last week). I don’t need for either, but I can see White continuing to be a security blanket for Jones. 

WR – Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor continue to be fringe candidates and not much more. Meyers leads in targets and air yards but both of these players are under 95 yards receiving through two games. If the Saints are missing corners again, I’ll double back and reevaluate. If Lattimore and others are back, they’re an easy pass in this low total game. We have much better options elsewhere. 

TE – Hunter Henry is playing more of the snaps at 75% to 63% but Jonnu Smith has a small lead in targets at 10-7. That doesn’t mean I’m excited to play either of them since Henry is under a 10% target share and Smith has an aDOT of 2.5 yards. The presence of White really sucks a lot of potential out of the tight ends and until Jones is more reliable, it’s tough to go here. 

D/ST – I’d be tempted to break my rule of not paying so much for defense because the Patriots and Belichick should have a field day here. This isn’t a dangerous offense and they’re coming into New England against a defense ranked third in total DVOA, has five turnovers forced, and the sixth-highest pressure rate despite a bottom-eight blitz rate. Still, $4,100 is an awful lot, especially when powerful offenses are on a slate. 

Cash Plays – White 

GPP Plays – D/ST

Cardinals at Jaguars, O/U of 51.5 (Cardinals -7)

Cardinals 

QB – Kyler Murray is one of the most absurd football players in the league right now and I mean that in the best way possible – 

There is simply no defense against that and Murray is one of the safest players in all of fantasy with a ceiling that is nearly unrivaled. He has nine total touchdowns and 51 rushing yards and that second part might be the most encouraging thing to me – he’s been scoring over 34 points a game without big games on the ground. Imagine what’s going to happen when he has 100 rushing yards on top of everything else. Only one other quarterback has more passing yards and Jacksonville is 28th in DVOA. Even if the Cardinals blow them out of the water, it’s almost sure to be because Kyler is going full nuclear and he’s got a great chance to score the most points on the entire slate. 

RB – If we’re only looking at rushing and receiving yards, there is really no discussion between Chase Edmonds and James Conner. Not only has Edmonds out-gained him on the ground by 30 yards, but Conner also has yet to be targeted in the passing game and Edmonds has added 72 receiving yards for over 180 scrimmage yards so far this year with nine receptions. $5,700 is getting up there for Edmonds but he certainly should not be only $700 more than Conner. The difficulty with Edmonds is you almost have to bank on a longer touchdown since he contends with Murray and Conner in the RZ. Arizona has run the ball nine times in the RZ so far and Edmonds has two attempts and none inside the five. He’s also seen just one RZ target so while he’s clearly the back to play, the ceiling is likely only attainable with a splash play touchdown. Jacksonville could be the team to give that to him with almost 290 scrimmage yards allowed and three scores already. 

WR – With Jacksonville giving up almost 300 passing yards per game, there is a lot of yards to go around and I’m not sure playing Rondale Moore is really even chasing his big day at this point. His snaps have increased and he’s leading the team in targets even with DeAndre Hopkins still there and on just a total of 36.9% of the snaps. That has to be very notable and Moore is only $5,000. He should clear 50% of the snaps in this game and Kyler very obviously has strong chemistry with him. He leads the team in yards with just a 4.1 aDOT and even if you took the long touchdown away (you shouldn’t), he would still be third in yardage. Moore sticks in the slot almost 71% of the snaps and this passing game should do whatever it wants. 

Update – Hopkins didn’t practice all week but there’s been no indication he’ll actually sit. This game is a 1 PM start so we’ll know in plenty of time.

TE – Maybe I turn out to be dead wrong, but I can’t get behind Maxx Williams coming anywhere close to repeating last week. Seven of his eight targets on the season came last week and even though he’s playing 76.9% of the snaps, the Cardinals offense has just never used the tight end under Kliff Kingsbury. Williams literally did not have a reception in the week before and outside of “it’s Jacksonville”, I’m not all that excited about a player who could be a total zero here. 

D/ST – Somehow, the Jaguars have only given up two sacks but they have still turned the ball over five times already and this is a solid spot for Arizona. They should be up early and by a lot, allowing their defense to pin their ears back to build on their seven sacks. They could give up plenty of points but you’re hoping for 2-3 splash plays along the way. 

Cash Plays – Kyler, Moore, Hopkins

GPP Plays – Edmonds, D/ST 

Jaguars 

QB – Trevor Lawerence is going to be a very good quarterback at the NFL level but I’m really struggling to play him at this juncture. The offense isn’t exactly helping him out (we’ll get to that) and Arizona is eighth in DVOA. I am a little surprised to see his pressure rate is only at 18.2% because I honestly expected it to be higher. The volume is there with the seventh-most pass attempts but he’s 19th in completions and the learning curve has been steep so far with five interceptions. You could hang your hat on him leading the league in air yards but the risk is there. The Cards have only allowed the eighth-fewest yards and only four touchdown passes, so I believe we can do better even though Lawerence should face a negative game script as a 7.5 point underdog. 

RB – Week 2 was far more encouraging for James Robinson at least as far as usage because he played 73% of the snaps and out-carried Carlos Hyde 11-2. He’s also being utilized as a passing game option with nine targets on the season and he’s under $6,000. Robinson seeing well over double-digit touches is interesting but Arizona is 10th in DVOA against the run and that’s impressive seeing as how they have faced Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. Lawerence is using all three receivers more than Robinson so I do prefer other options at this same salary. 

WR – We suspected that Marvin Jones could be the best fantasy receiver on this team and so far, that’s been very accurate. He leads in targets, air yards share and is the only player on the team with RZ and EZ targets. Arizona corner Robert Alford likely draws the most of the coverage here. Alford has only been targeted nine times so far but has allowed six catches and a 1.26 FPPT. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a receiver get seven targets, two catches, and 1.7 DK points but congratulations Laviska Shenault. You did just that. D.J. Chark is still seeing plenty of targets and has a 13.9 aDOT but I’m not sure how comfortable you can feel playing a receiver with four receptions right now when he’s the most expensive receiver of the group. Just play Jones and call it a day here since he’s the clear best run-back option of this team. 

TE – I liked James O’Shaughnessy last week and he played all of 5% of the snaps before leaving with an ankle injury. Luke Farrell was the main player that stepped up as far as snaps with 64% but was also only targeted twice. That’s not a great sign and I feel we can do better than this. 

D/ST – Lol. 

Cash Plays – Jones

GPP Plays – Lawerence, Chark 

Jets at Broncos, O/U of 42 (Broncos -10)

Jets 

QB – We saw the dud coming from Zach Wilson a mile away last week but I’m not sure how much better this spot is for him. He and the Jets have to travel into Denver against a top 10 DVOA unit and a nasty pass rush. Wilson has been brought down 10 times already with a pressure rate of almost 40% so far this year. The Broncos haven’t even allowed 400 passing yards yet and they get to feast on a rookie for the second week in a row. 

RB – With coach Robert Saleh openly saying they will be riding the hot hand in an RBBC, it’s really hard to get behind Michael Carter even after 13 touches last week for over 10 DK points. 

That makes total sense for the Jets but it leaves us in a tough spot. If we “chase” Carter and he comes out and makes a mistake, he could get no work. On top of that, Denver has allowed the second-fewest rush yards to running backs so far and sit eighth in DVOA against the run. It’s another tough spot for the Jets offense and I’ll pass. 

Update – Coleman is out which on a different slate could make it interesting, but this isn’t the spot for it.

WR – With the instability at quarterback, I’m not certain we need to go this route. Corey Davis saw another five targets last week but went for just eight yards. Here’s the thing – he’s not even leading in targets in the offense right now. That would be Braxton Berrios, who has a 28.1% target share to this point. Yes, the Jets have been without Jamison Crowder and they would need to be again if you wanted to go with Berrios. He’s sitting tied for seventh in raw targets across the entire NFL. It’s not a large surprise to see Berrios playing 62% of his snaps from the slot and that would lead him into Bryce Callahan. It’s a tough matchup as Callahan has only allowed a 42% completion rate on just seven targets. It’s more noteworthy about the offense and how it’s running with a rookie quarterback. 

Update – Crowder is doubtful, so we should see the same passing offense we’ve been seeing with New York.

TE – There’s not a real reason to play Tyler Kroft or Ryan Griffin in this game. They both are playing snaps at over a 55% rate and Griffin has carved out a 12.5% target share but a rookie quarterback on the road that isn’t being protected well sounds like a poor idea, even at the salary. 

D/ST – Honestly, the Jets defense hasn’t played that poorly. They are 17th in total DVOA, have a 20.3% pressure rate, and have generated one turnover. Those aren’t great numbers but Saleh and company have this unit at least not getting walked up and down the field. The Broncos are quietly giving up a pressure rate over 32% so we could see at least a couple of sacks here with a 26.1% blitz rate. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Berrios, Davis

Broncos 

QB – Only three players have a better on-target rate than the 85.5% that Teddy Bridgewater sits at through two weeks. What is most impressive is the other three are above 18th in air yards this season while Teddy B is fourth, throwing for 10 yards per attempt. Only Russell Wilson is higher at 10.2 yards so Bridgewater is shedding his label of just a caretaker of the offense. Jacksonville is 28th in DVOA and they’ve allowed the seventh-most yards through two weeks. Bridgewater has the weapons to take advantage of the spot and he’s not been given the due respect for salary, sitting at just $5,800. Even without Jerry Jeudy, Bridgewater showed he has upside with 24 DK points last week. 

RB – It’s not that much different than the New York spot and it’s hard to pick between Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Gordon holds the slight edge in snaps but Williams has more carries at 27-24 and they are tied with four RZ targets a piece. Over half of Gordon’s 132 yards rushing came on a 70+ yard run and while I’m not a fan of taking away big plays…it’s noticeable two weeks into the season. Neither player is getting a ton of work in the passing game with five targets for Gordon and just two for Williams. That’s partly a product of Bridgewater being aggressive this year throwing the ball. I’m going to continue to play Williams to get ahead of his breakout week since he’s cheaper but he won’t be a core play this week. 

WR – Courtland Sutton seems a little pricey but he is coming off a 12 target game and he has the role that we love with a 20.9 aDOT. He also leads the Broncos in targets now and has one EZ target. Sutton leads the entire league in air yards and he’ll face a lot of Brandin Echols and even though he’s only been targeted seven times, he’s allowed a 71.4% completion rate thus far. Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler are a lot thinner plays because Patrick is living on touchdowns right now. After all, he only has seven receptions for 76 yards. That’s really not that special but he co-leads the team in RZ targets and Denver should be in there quite often. Hamler is also a deep threat at a 20.0 aDOT but only has four receptions. He’s going to have a game where he catches a bomb or two but predicting that is tough. I’d likely stick with Sutton, and then Patrick as a cheap touchdown player. 

TE – It was a good thing Noah Fant caught a touchdown last week because there wasn’t a lot else to love. With Sutton terrorizing the Jacksonville secondary, Fant only saw six targets for a paltry 33 yards. It’s a bit of a downer to see his aDOT at just 5.6 yards while Teddy is slinging it to other parts of the field. I mean, Sutton has an aDOT of 20.6 on one more target. Fant is a fine cash article that shouldn’t cripple you with three RZ targets, but I can’t see why I wouldn’t find $400 for Hockenson. 

D/ST – They’re in a complete smash spot but I cannot justify spending this amount. They would need to score over 15 DK points to make it worth it and that’s possible, it’s not the best use of salary. Denver is 10th in DVOA overall and the Jets are just a turnstile, letting Wilson get pressured on almost 40% of his dropbacks. Still, it’s only $800 less than say, Hockenson. It’s $1,300 less than Hollywood Brown. The odds are those players (and others in this range) are going to score a lot more points. 

Cash Plays – Teddy B, Fant, Sutton

GPP Plays – Patrick, Williams 

Dolphins at Raiders, O/U of 45 (Raiders -4)

Dolphins 

QB – I won’t be interested here regardless of Tua Tagovailoa playing or if Jacoby Brissett is in. If Tua tries to push through his rib injury, you could easily see him get pulled in the middle of the game if the pain becomes too much. The Vegas defense is 17th in DVOA but also has only given up two passing touchdowns with just one interception. You can build a case for Tua breaking out if he plays and he gets a receiver back but I’m hard-pressed to build the said case. Past the Saints/Patriots game and Jets/Broncos, this is the third-lowest O/U on the slate and there is good reason for that. 

Update – Tua has fractured ribs and is out. 

RB – Siri, show me a horrible situation for fantasy – 

The Raiders have given up plenty of production to running backs with three touchdowns given up and over 200 scrimmage yards. The downside is the split work and potentially a backup quarterback, making it even easier for the Raiders to focus on the run. I will note that this game was a blowout so maybe that had something to do with it but even still. 

WR – Will Fuller is back but now working with a backup quarterback so I’m not nearly as excited. We also still have Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker in this mix and while Brissett looked at Waddle plenty when he took over, this situation still seems sketchy. If I’m going anywhere, I would stick with Waddle. He’s playing an awful lot in the slot at 45.6% of the snaps and his 6.1 aDOT is more in line with what I would expect from Brissett. Waddle is also the only player in this receiving group with RZ targets at two. What I also like is Nate Hobbs has been the slot corner for the Raiders this season and he’s only been targeted five times, but he’s not forced an incompletion yet. 

TE – Mike Gesicki has struggled to make an impact without Fuller in the lineup so it’s hard to see it happening at this point. Gesicki has yet to climb over 53% of the snaps and only has been targeted for an 11.6% target share. That’s not terrible, but it’s not something to be excited about either. Another large issue is he’s yet to get an RZ target as well and he just doesn’t appear to be valued in the offense. 

D/ST – They are fine as the Raiders have allowed five sacks and a pressure rate of 28.7%, the ninth-highest in the league. Miami is also 11th in total DVOA and they bring the blitz at a 40.8% rate, confident in their corners to hold up. That has only resulted in two sacks so far but this could be a solid if an unspectacular spot for them. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Waddle, D/ST 

Raiders 

QB – It’s a tough matchup on paper but Derek Carr has been on fire to start the season with at least 382 passing yards in each game so far. He’s only thrown one interception and Carr is leading the league in passing yards by over 120 yards. It’s not like he’s squeaking by at this point. Carr is also second in air yards on the year so he’s being aggressive down the field. Even though some of his receiving options aren’t the best for fantasy, they stretch the field and it only takes one or two plays to rattle off a lot of yards. The lack of the run game is forcing the Raiders offense to be more aggressive since they are 31st in rushing yards per game. They have to move the ball somehow and Carr has been the center of it thus far. 

RB – It appears that Josh Jacobs is on high alert to not play in this game, which leaves the work to Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber. Drake had a significant edge in snaps last week at 71% but he only had seven carries compared to 13 for Barber on 28.7% of the snaps. It likely doesn’t help Barber that he got so many carries on so few snaps because it was easy to tell what was happening. I would much rather play Drake even with just 20 yards on 13 carries. He’s faced some tough defensive fronts and Drake has 11 targets already, the fourth-most on the team. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are in the top six in rushing yards allowed while Miami is in the bottom five, opening up some production on the ground for Drake (and Barber, though I’m not that interested). Miami is also 22nd in DVOA against the run so this is a pretty strong matchup for Vegas. 

Update – Jacobs is indeed doubtful for this one.

WR – I was going to be willing to take a chance on a cheap Henry Ruggs but he’s not all that cheap. He’s kicked into the slot 31% of the time, which would give him a better chance for a long touchdown avoiding Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Neither Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow has a target share of over 18% so far this year and it’s just not a good matchup at all. I’m not interested on such a large slate. 

TE – When a tight end owns a 29.2% target share and a 31.7% share of the air yards and isn’t $7,500, it should be noticeable. Darren Waller is in a great spot as Miami boasts their excellent corner duo and that could funnel even more work to Waller (like he needs the help). He’s priced like the WR4 on the slate and deserves to be so he’s in play in all formats and an elite option as well. He can be a little bring to write about because he’s the alpha in the passing game and you play him if you can. Maybe it’s a hot take but he’s my tight end of choice in any format outside of a Chiefs stack with Kelce. 

D/ST – If they get to face Brissett, sign me up if you can afford them. Vegas isn’t even blitzing at 4.9% but they have the fourth-highest pressure rate in football and five sacks. Let’s make sure who the Miami starter is before we get too excited. 

Update – Get excited, even though it’s not a discount rate. 

Cash Plays – Waller, D/ST, Carr

GPP Plays – Drake, Ruggs 

Seahawks at Vikings, O/U of 55.5 (Seahawks -1.5)

Seahawks 

QB – Russell Wilson continues to be one of the best options at his position with six touchdowns, no interceptions, and the eighth-most passing yards. Minnesota is 22nd in DVOA and just got shredded by Kyler and company, so I’m having a hard time thinking they can contain the passing game here. One of the only issues we can poke at with Wilson is he’s 27th in attempts and only has four RZ attempts. Just strictly from a volume standpoint, Wilson is not any different than Baker Mayfield. He just is far more efficient and has two of the better receivers in football to make the offense work. Russ has been mostly ignored compared to other elite options so far this year and if that continues, we can continue to take advantage. 

RB – It was a really good thing Chris Carson fell into the end zone a couple of times last week because he didn’t do very much on the ground. Carson only generated 31 yards on the ground on 13 carries and did not record a target, which is slightly concerning. Carson saw an 11.5% target share last year but through two weeks it’s down under 6% and frankly, no player outside of the two main receivers is doing very much so far. Minnesota is only 17th in DVOA against the run so far and has allowed over 200 rushing yards so it’s not a terrible spot at all. I’m just not in love with the general lack of targets at $6,400 but it is only two weeks into the season. You know he’s the RZ guy so I certainly don’t hate him, but would likely play him in cash only.

WR – It’s going to sound like a broken record but it’s D.K. Metcalf Week Part Three: Revenge of the Goat. I get it, he’s hurt us a little bit because he’s been solid but Tyler Lockett has had a 52.1% of the air yards share to just 33.6% for Metcalf. Lockett has gone bonkers the first two weeks and the targets and EZ targets are the exact same. You don’t get the role Metcalf has right now and not continue to not have explosion games. It just has to happen. Patrick Peterson got smacked by Metcalf last year in Arizona and that’s going to happen again. He’s giving up a 2.92 FPPT on five targets and 11.5 YPR. Lockett isn’t playing as much in the slot at just 24% and should see a lot of Bashaud Breeland who is also allowing a 2.89 FPPT. Good luck stopping these two receivers. 

TE – With all of the focus in this passing game going to Lockett and Metcalf, the duo of Gerald Everett and Will Dissly combined for exactly two targets. Everett is going to poach a touchdown now and then, but that’s going to be about it. He could be part of a game stack but that might be the extent I’m willing to go with it since he’s running under 20 routes per game. 

D/ST – I have no real interest as Minnesota has only allowed four sacks so far and has just one turnover. I would have strong concerns about the secondary holding up against this talented receiving corps and stopping one of the best backs in football. 

Cash Plays – Carson, Lockett

GPP Plays – Russ, Metcalf 

Vikings 

QB – Kirk Cousins is the no sizzle, all steak option since he’s thrown five touchdowns to no interceptions and is completing over 71% of his attempts so far. I wouldn’t have guessed that he’d be tied for eighth in attempts two weeks in and Seattle is 20th in DVOA and has the ninth-most yards allowed. He’s really not expensive enough and Seattle just had some issues with a pair of two strong receivers in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. 

RB – Seattle’s defense might still be having nightmares about facing Derrick Henry and facing Dalvin Cook isn’t going to make anything easier. Cook is averaging over 20 DK points per game so far and that is with just one touchdown on the season. Just like we thought, he’s owning the backfield with 89% of the running back attempts and he has a target share of over 12.5%. Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing yards and three touchdowns but even more interesting to me is they lead the league in receiving yards given up and receptions against the backs. Considering they are 20th in DVOA against the run and Cook is among the elite as far as receiving chops at the running back position, he is a fantastic play this week with the Vikings needing a win badly. 

Update – Cook hasn’t practiced all week, which is of note and possible concern. I tend to think he suits up with the Vikings at 0-2, but I would shy away in cash as we stand right now. If he sits, Alexander Mattison likely becomes one of the most popular plays on the slate.

WR – I wouldn’t have guessed that K.J. Osborn would have a higher air yards share than Adam Thielen two weeks into the season but that’s where we’re at. Now, that’s not to leave Justin Jefferson out in the cold because his air yards share is 47.9%, the eighth-highest in the league. He’s also eighth in unrealized air yards so he has some higher potential than he’s showed so far. The alignments this year would put him against Tre Flowers who has allowed a 2.6 FPPT while Thielen gets D.J. Reed who has only allowed a 9.8 YPR with no touchdowns yet. Osborn has been in the slot and would face Ugo Amadi and remains wildly cheap for 15 targets, a 22.8% air yards share, and a 71.5% snap rate. His snaps came down last week but they should be playing in another competitive game and if Cook is hurting, they could just put this on Cousins and the passing game.

TE – Tyler Conklin has only seen eight targets so far, good for fifth on the team and a 10.1% target share. He’s yet to get a look in the RZ or EZ and with a player like Thielen on the squad, that’s not in a big hurry to change. He’s running enough routes to be inside the top 12 but it’s not translating to much production yet. 

D/ST – I’m not banking on another defensive touchdown to help them this week although they do have eight sacks already, tied for the second-most. Russ has been brought down six times so far but only has a 20% pressure rate to go with one turnover. Minnesota is also just 21st in total DVOA so I’ll likely pass. 

Cash Plays – Cousins, Jefferson, Osborn 

GPP Plays – Thielen, Cook

Buccaneers at Rams, O/U of 55 (Bucs -1.5)

Buccaneers 

QB – Regardless of matchup, I’m not sure why Tom Brady saw his price decrease by $100 against the Rams this week. That makes little sense to me since he’s coming off another 30 DK point game. The Rams are 4th in DVOA but does it matter with the Bucs and Brady? Is there any matchup that would change your mind? LA can get pressure right up the middle with Aaron Donald and that has long been the surest way to get Brady rattle, but that’s easier said than done. Brady continues to release the ball among the quickest in the league. He also leads the league in RZ attempts at a whopping 19 so far this year. I don’t foresee Brady being a super popular option and that could be a fun late-day hammer. 

RB – Remember when Bruce Arians said that Ronald Jones was the starter coming into the week? I remember. I also see RoJo got six carries to 11 for Leonard Fournette and Uncle Lenny had four targets to three for RoJo as well. Fournette leads by a lot in carries, targets, and snaps so there is no reason to think it’s different this week until he makes a mistake and Arians flips out and benches him. That seems to be what happens all the time. As it stands, we have a clear-cut hierarchy in this backfield. The Rams have shown some vulnerability on the ground with 192 yards allowed and sitting 19th in DVOA against the run. 

WR – Arguably the largest piece of news on the slate to this point is Antonio Brown’s status for this game. He could potentially test negative twice before the game on Sunday for Covid, but that seems like a tight timeline. If he’s out, I thought Chris Godwin could become one of the best plays on the slate at his salary but let’s talk about it. Mike Evans doesn’t always have his best games against the best corners and while Jalen Ramsey doesn’t shadow fully but he’s one of the best and should see Evans often. So far this season, Ramsey has gone into the slot 50% of the time so he’s going to cover both receivers without a doubt. Ramsey has only allowed seven receptions for a 0.93 FPPT. Godwin has been in the slot 60% so far and the matchups are far from set in stone. I still love Godwin with a 23.5% target share and AB would vacate 12.3% of the target share and 28.4% of the air yards share. I would think Tyler Johnson could be the next man up with three targets on the season but we’re getting thin with the other options in the offense. 

TE – I need to get on the Rob Gronkowski diet or something because this guy has been a terror so far. He already has found the end zone four times and is third on the team in targets, ahead of AB. Gronkowski is also not leaving the field very much at an 84% snap share and he already has three RZ targets with two in the EZ. Only Godwin and AB have more receiving yards and in this offense, it’s impossible to cover all four options. He’s going to get plenty of opportunities and if Brady keeps chucking in the red zone, the touchdown equity is just sky-high. 

D/ST – I won’t be looking that way at all at this price point. Jared Goff doesn’t quarterback the Rams anymore. 

Update – Jason Pierre-Paul is ou for this one and that is a big hit for the pass rush for the Bucs.

Cash Plays – Brady, Gronkowski, Godwin 

GPP Plays – Evans, Johnson 

Rams 

QB – The best way to move the ball against the Bucs is through the air and Matthew Stafford could be in line for a big game. They have given up two 300-yard passers so far this year and Tampa is only 14th in DVOA. They are the only team to already face over 100 attempts and we don’t need to twist Sean McVay’s arm to throw the ball a lot. Stafford is only 23rd in attempts thus far but seventh in yards and they haven’t even opened up the offense yet with Stafford sitting 17th in air yards on the season. With Tampa already missing a very important corner, this is a strong spot for Stafford as far as volume. If the Rams move the ball, it’s going to be on Stafford’s right arm. We also have this gem from Jon Ledyard – 

RB – Darrell Henderson is highly questionable in this game which could open the door for Sony Michel, but regardless of who is starting, I’m not interested. Tampa continues to dominate on the ground with only 99 yards allowed and sitting fifth in DVOA. While they do have a weakness against pass-catching running backs, Henderson hasn’t been utilized a lot in that facet with just six targets. That is a 10.9% share which isn’t terrible but it’s not enough to play Henderson at $5,900. Michel has yet to see a target this year and he’s only played 17% of the snaps. This strikes me as a spot where the Rams just lean on the passing game and we can have other options. 

WR – Is Cooper Kupp going to continue to go off for 30+ points every game? No, but he’s still too cheap for this spot. He is just killing it with Stafford and has a 38.2% target share with a 36.2% air yards share. When he’s in the slot, he’s going to face Ross Cockrell and Kupp is going to eat him alive. Robert Woods gets the tougher matchup in Carlton Davis on the boundary around 80% of the time. Davis has been targeted 18 times already and has only allowed a 55% catch rate. I honestly think we see at least one more Kupp week of dominance in this matchup. Van Jefferson is on the field a whole lot with over 80% of the snaps and plays the boundary the most of anyone. I’m not sold on him because Jamel Dean can match his speed as they both are sub 4.4 in the 40-yard dash. 

Update – I’m actually walking back not being sold on Jefferson. They’re going to throw the ball so much and it only takes one play with him. If you stack up other expensive pieces, he’s a great cheap player to get in on this game.

TE – We talked last week about Tyler Higbee not leaving the field and running a ton of routes and even though he had just one measly reception this week, the usage was the same. He’s not missed a snap yet, he ran a route on all but six dropbacks for Stafford, and he was in the slot or out wide for over half his routes. Still….just one target. Tampa has given up the fifth-most yards to tight ends so far and they only faced Pitts in his second game as far as players of note. With Higbee being a giant flop last week, we could get a bounce-back game here. 

D/ST – You just don’t get enough of a discount to take the risk. The Rams could be suited to slow Brady down with pressure right up the middle with Donald and Ramsey perhaps taking away one portion of the field, but $3,500 isn’t worth it to find out. 

Cash Plays – Kupp, Stafford

GPP Plays – Higbee, Woods, Jefferson 

Cash Core 4 

Cooper Kupp, Saquon Barkley, Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin (provided Antonio Brown is out)

GPP Core 4 

A.J. Brown, Van Jefferson, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce

Stacks 

Chargers/Chiefs – Herbert/Ekeler/Williams/Allen – Run Backs – Kelce, Reek, CEH, Hardman (obviously Mahomes is in play but Herbert for almost $2,000 cheaper on DK makes life a lot easier)

Bucs/Rams – Stafford/Kupp/Jefferson/Woods/Higbee – Run Backs – Godwin/Gronkowski/Evans/Fournette/Brady

Seahawks/Vikings – Russ/Metcalf/Lockett/Carson – Run Backs – Jefferson/Thielen/Cook/Osborn

Large gap Between these three games and the others

Falcons/Giants – Ridley/Pitts/Davis/Patterson – Run Back – Danny Dimes/Slayton/Shepard/Golladay

Cardinals/Jaguars – Kyler/Moore/Nuk/Edmonds – Run Back – Marvin Jones

Ravens/Lions – Lamar/Hollywood/Andrews – Run Backs – Hockenson/Swift (I dig the Hollywood/Hock mini stack)

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport