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NFL DFS Double Ups

Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 8

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a full 13-game slate with a wide variety of totals. Due to a lot of work travel this week, this will be a very brief article in more of a cheatsheet format. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 8:
– Miami Dolphins (28)
– Baltimore Ravens (27)
– Kansas City Chiefs (26.5)
– Dallas Cowboys (26)
– Philadelphia Eagles (25.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc.

High-Priced

Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DK / $9,200 FD) – A pass-first offense against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Will Denver have enough fire power to keep this one close? I doubt it, but if they do, this is another great spot for Mahomes
Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – My top quarterback on the slate against a dreadful Washington defense. The rushing upside and red-zone rushing boosts his floor higher than anyone.
Dak Prescott ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) – More interested on DraftKings, but a nice value in the GPP space. The AETY Model loves Dak coming off of the bye against a weak Rams’ defensive unit.
Joe Burrow ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – Burrow fresh off a bye week against a pass-funnel defense at sub 5% ownership? Sign me all the way up. How is Dak more expensive?

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

Alvin Kamara ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)
D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) – Crazy affordable for one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. I’m a big fan of rolling out the Hurts-Swift-Brown double stack this week.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) – Cash game staple again this weekend. The usage is solid, yet confusing at times, but this is the most reliable “value” piece of the Chiefs’ offense.
Bijan Robinson ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – I wouldn’t be able to stomach it in single entry contests, but if you’re looking to get crazy different against what was once a stout run defense, I can’t imagine a severely discounted Bijan garners over 5-8% ownership. Excellent pivot if you’re fading the slate favorite, Breece Hall.
Breece Hall ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – Great price. Great matchup.
Dameon Pierce ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – GPP only, but the best matchup for opposing running backs. I’ll roll the dice in tournaments that Pierce is still the top runner in the Houston backfield.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt (DK Only), Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Tyreek Hill	Garrett Wilson	AJ Brown
Rashee Rice	AJ Brown	Brandon Aiyuk
Kadarius Toney	Ja’Maar Chase	Tyreek Hill
Cooper Kupp	Cooper Kupp	George Pickens
AJ Brown	Puka Nacua	Garrett Wilson
Puka Nacua	Tyreek Hill	Marquise Brown
Brandon Aiyuk	DeAndre Hopkins	Ja’Maar Chase
Ja’Maar Chase	Adam Thielen	Amari Cooper
Jaylen Waddle	George Pickens	DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins	Michael Pittman	Cooper Kupp

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,700 FD) – What else does he need to do to be priced up with Cooper Kupp?
Puka Nacua ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Love Cooper Kupp as well, but might as well take the discount with Puka. It appears this game is going to be under-owned.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – No one is going to pay this much for a less-than-stellar (fantasy points wise) CeeDee Lamb. One of the top GPP targets of mine this week against the Rams’ struggling secondary.
Chris Olave ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Our weekly pick on the Colts’ secondary play. Surprisingly, Olave’s usage in the slot is on the rise and this open up Michael Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) as a nice value target as well. Having said that, I’d still rather use Olave for the play-making upside when he is on the outside.
Garrett Wilson ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – My second favorite GPP play on the board. Perfect leverage against the chalky Breece Hall and a perfect matchup for Mr. Wilson.
Tee Higgins ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – GPP Only, but the AETY Model has a significant coverage advantage to Tee Higgins. At these prices, Higgins is a great value against a pass-funnel San Francisco defense.
Zay Flowers ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – Dumb price. Cash game staple at the least.
Nico Collins ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – DraftKings cash staple without Robert Woods.

Punt-Values:
Michael Gallup
Demario Douglas

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Christian Watson, Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Tank Dell, Romeo Doubs

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD) –It’s Travis Kelce. He’s by far and away the top tight-end on the slate per usual.
Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD) – Preferred him last week at the discount and the coverage advantage. Won’t talk you off playing a top-tier tight-end.
George Kittle ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD) – Great price and a nice coverage boost against the Steelers heavy Cover-1 usage.
Trey McBride ($2,800 DK / $4,700 FD) – Not a great matchup, but the popular punt-play with Ertz on IR.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Jalen Hurts
Isiah Pacecho
Breece Hall
Nico Collins
Zay Flowers

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Joe Burrow
Tee Higgins
Ja’Maar Chase
George Kittle

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 7

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 7 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 10-game slate with some disgustingly low totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD) – In all honesty, this is a gross slate with a wide variety of pay-up chalk, and value chalk. At the quarterback position, the AETY Model strongly feels the best way to move forward is to simply play the best player at the position one one of the best offenses on the slate who is projected for the most pass attempts and passing yards on the slate (also the only respectably high game total). If Patrick Mahomes comes in under 10% in ownership (currently projected for that 5-10% range), that will be a crime.

I will not be reinventing the wheel at the most important position in DFS this week.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Kadarius Toney
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett
Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $6,700 FD) – Quite affordable on FanDuel but certainly in play on DraftKings. If you’re looking to pay down at quarterback, it’s really only Stafford or Geno Smith in my opinion (maybe Watson in a GPP). Stafford has the second highest implied probability in the AETY Model to lead this slate in pass attempts (behind Mahomes) and should lean on his healthy receiving core with the massive question mark at the running back position this week. The Steelers secondary is not what it used to be.

Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
Bring-Back Options: George Pickens, Diontae Johnson
Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – On FanDuel, you probably just take the $300 savings and go to Stafford (if you’re paying down), but on DraftKings, Geno Smith is likely to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate. I’ll likely be a hard pass in NFL DFS GPP tournaments, but will give Geno a serious look in cash games. As mentioned last week, this Arizona Cardinal defense has fallen flat down to earth and bleeds production to any facet of the opposing offense.

Stack Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (FanDuel), Jordan Love, DeShaun Watson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,600 DK / $8,200 FD) – In GPP’s, I’ll likely be prioritizing a sub-10% owned, Austin Ekeler. It’s not a sexy matchup as the Chiefs have been incredibly stingy to opposing running backs this season, but Ekeler is not your standard running back. When looking at his actual route tree and projections from the AETY Model, Austin Ekeler is damn-near a wide receiver who happens to get 10-15 carries and goal-line work. At this price, there is a lot that can go against Ekeler’s chances at having a ceiling game, but on the other side of the Chargers’ offense is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. On a slate where 80% of the games have totals around 40-points or below, I will sleep just fine knowing I attacked the fastest pace game (by a wide margin) with the best offenses on the slate.
Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – It was very tough for me to include Josh Jacobs in this Week’s rundown, but it looks like he’ll be challenging Kenneth Walker for the highest owned running back on the slate. In GPP’s, I’d much rather PAY LESS for Bijan Robinson (that sounds weird to see Bijan cheaper than Jacobs). On the bright side, Jacobs is an absolute workhorse and very active in the passing game which will bode well as the Bears’ rank dead last in DVOA against opposing route running backs. I’ll only consider him in cash due to the ownership and my preference to Walker or Bijan in this price range for tournaments.
Kenneth Walker ($7,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Pricey as hell on FanDuel, but it looks like KW3 is going to be the only game in town out of Seattle’s backfield with rookie Zach Charbonnet doubtful to suit up. I always try to find a way to fade a 40% owned running back, but it’ll be incredibly difficult to do that this weekend. Walker is averaging over 18 DraftKings’ points-per-game as-is, and now gets one of the best matchups on the slate against the Cardinals and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). Surprisingly, the Seahawks also grade inside the top-10 in run blocking. It’s tough to find a reason to not play Walker everywhere.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – Unreal price on FanDuel, but certainly in play for DraftKings with the full-point PPR. I’m currently seeing ownership projections in the 25-35% range on BOTH NFL DFS outlets… we might as well ride the wave with Gibbs in our cash game lineups. Craig Reynolds is banged up, so we should get a nice day of work for the rookie… I don’t love that Dan Campbell said that, lol. There is just something about coach speak that rubs me the wrong way. Having said that, the weather in Baltimore will likely lead to more of an emphasis on the shorter passing routes where Gibbs thrives. This is still a run-first offense with or without Montgomery.
Isiah Pachecho ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’ll keep writing up Pacheco as long as his price continues to remain in that mid-tier (on DraftKings). FanDuel has noticed the uptick in usage and rightfully raised his price. Pachecho is starting to become the clear running back in Kansas City which is exactly what Andy Reid used to do with his RB depth chart. McKinnon will still be involved (especially with the red-zone route running), but Pacheco is a staple for 15+ touches on the best offense on this slate.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) – I prefer Stevenson on DraftKings of course, but he’s in play for GPP lineups on both outlets. Stevenson is going to be one of those mid-tier backs that gets completely ignored by the field as everyone prefers Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford, or pay-up to Pachecho. We know the Patriots are going to try to slow this pace down as much as possible and run the living hell out of the football. We still have to watch Ezekiel Elliott get work, but Stevenson is the preferred option in this backfield. On the PPR side of things, Stevenson averaged five and a half receptions per game against this Bills’ defense in 2022. He’s going to be a cheap source of 15+ touches with receiving upside.
Zach Evans ($4,000 DK / $4,800 FD) – If you need the free-square running back, no need to overthink this one. He likely won’t get the workload Hubbard did last week, but he’s likely the lead running back for an offense with a top-5 implied team total this week.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley (GPP Only), Bijan Robinson, Aaron Jones, James Cook, Brian Robinson Jr., Javonte Williams (sorry @Ghost), Jerome Ford

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Rashee Rice	Davante Adams	Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp	Stefon Diggs	DJ Moore
Kadarius Toney	Cooper Kupp	George Pickens
Stefon Diggs	DJ Moore	Marquise Brown
Puka Nacua	Keenan Allen	Stefon Diggs
Davante Adams	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Amari Cooper
Keenan Allen	Puka Nacua	Davante Adams
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Michael Pittman Jr.	Mike Evans
Mike Evans	George Pickens	DK Metcalf
Demario Douglas (my dude!!)	Marquise Brown	Tyler Lockett

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DK / $9,700 FD) – Everyone’s #1 wideout for the week is going to be Cooper Kupp. I have nothing negative to say about him and will lock him in to my cash game lineups. He’s always in play in any format for that matter.
Davante Adams ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – I’m AGAIN going to be extremely interested in Davante Adams. Coming off of two down games, Davante Adams gets one of the best matchups on the slate against a Bears’ defense that grades 30th in pass defense DVOA. There is not a corner or a combination of corners that can hang with Adams for Chicago. Squeaky wheel gets the grease!
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD) – Too cheap for someone with the ceiling of Metcalf against the Cardinals’ secondary. I worry about the back-and-forth potential in this game, but if there’s anyone who can go for 150 yards and two scores before half, it’s DK Metcalf.
DJ Moore ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – It’s gross and we all know it, but I’ll always feature the lead wide receiver against the Raiders…. the same reason we loved Bourne on the podcast and discord last week. Bagent is the definition of an unproven rookie, but he will lean on his “X” wideout from the jump. A true, 2-5% owned WR1 in a great matchup.
Amari Cooper ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Our classic spot for the outside receivers against the Colts. I certainly prefer Cooper if Watson does in fact return this week, but like Moore, no one will play this guy if a backup quarterback gets the start. He’s a great GPP play this week.
Terry McLaurin ($5,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – Dirt cheap price on DraftKings and likely half the ownership of Marquise Brown. In GPP contests, I love the idea of Terry McLaurin. Some of the easiest decisions in DFS is playing value-priced, WR1s against bad pass defenses (the Giants are 26th in pass defense DVOA).
Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – Classic spot every single week, lol. Which realistically should get us off of considering Marquise Brown… There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! For the price on DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats again for me this week in what should be another excellent gamescript for his path to 3-4x value in fantasy. The Seahawks almost exclusively run Cover-3 zone, and that is where Marquise Brown gets his volume.
Josh Palmer ($4,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – The highest owned wide receiver on the slate. On FanDuel, I’ll probably pass on that price-tag, but will lock him into our cash game lineup on DraftKings. You can play him tournaments (I probably will eat that chalk), but I love the idea of pivoting to a 2% owned, Romeo Doubs (the AETY Model’s #2 value at receiver) if you can afford it.
Rashee Rice ($4,700 DK / $5,600 FD) – Without Justin Watson, something has to give for a full-on Rashee Rice breakout. He’s literally first on this slate in targets per routes ran and should be able to abuse this Chargers’ secondary. The Chargers will show a good bit of Cover-2 (both man and zone) and then Cover-1 Man. Both of those coverages should lead to a significant advantage to both Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Let’s have a day, Rashee!

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, Romeo Doubs, Kadarius Toney

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) –It’s Travis Kelce. He’s by far and away the top tight-end on the slate, but he’s priced like a top-tier wide receiver/running-back.
Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD) – A nice discount for an upper echelon tight-end on DraftKings. The Lions’ play nothing but zone defense and that is advantage to Mark Andrews. While the whole field goes to play Zay Flowers, I’m much more interested in pivoting to a 5% owned Mark Andrews.
Kyle Pitts ($4,000 DK / $5,600 FD) – Great price for a mid-tier wide receiver who gets the tight-end tag. I’m always annoyed with Jonnu Smith’s usgage, but these guys are both a focal point in the Falcons’ passing attack. I started looking at Pitts with the lens that he is just a cheap wide receiver with the world of upside. That mindset makes him MUCH easier to stomach when playing him on a weekly basis. Tampa plays a ton of Cover-3 and that’s where Pitts feasts.
Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DK Only) – The punt-chalk tight-end everyone is going to play this week. I’m fine with it for Packers’ stacks or cash game lineups. He’s getting a lot of work and should find plenty of holes in Denver’s Cover-3 and Cover-2 defenses.
Michael Mayer ($2,700 DK / $4,900 FD) – If you really need to go dumpster diving, Michael Mayer has taken the reigns as the TE1 in Las Vegas. His route participation has been on the steady incline over the past three weeks and should continue to fizzle out Austin Hooper. This game is gross, but Mayer has some serious touchdown upside against the Bears’ red-zone defense.
Trey McBride ($2,600 DK / $4,600 FD) – Even more gross than Michael Mayer, but the Cardinals are slowly unleashing their most talented pass-catcher on the team in Trey McBride. McBride’s sole job is to go out and run routes as the Cardinals are chasing points on a weekly basis. My concern with Mayer is that Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jakobi Meyers are all well ahead of him in the pecking order. Pair that with a likely negative gamescript for Mayer being “needed” against Chicago and it seems like McBride (if you’re completely punting tight-end) is a no-brainer in large field GPP contests only.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Marquise Brown
Isiah Pacecho
Josh Palmer
Cooper Kupp
Kenneth Walker

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Patrick Mahomes
Austin Ekeler
Rashee Rice
Trey McBride

2 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 6

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 11-game slate with some high totals that we will certainly want to keep an eye on for ownership/leverage/etc! If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a much higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) – There is significant blowout potential in this game against Carolina, but the Miami Dolphins offense is the best in the NFL and the targets from Tua Tagovailoa are so condensed, it makes the stacking choices very easy. Despite the risk of this game being over in the first half, the Miami passing attack has the highest ceiling on the slate.

Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert
Bring-Back Options: Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – The Colts’ secondary (especially on the outside) is a doormat that should lead to plenty of fantasy production for the condensed target share of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The thing I like most about this matchup with the Colts is that they do not generate much pressure (if at all) on opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence has struggled with pressure in his young career and we simply won’t see much of that on Sunday.

Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs
Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Burrow and the boys are most certainly back! We’re not reinventing the wheel this week in the QB player pool and I’m surprisingly quite comfortable with that. Seattle is the 5th worst pass defense on this slate (DVOA) and the Bengals’ passing attack is finally righting the ship. As long as the weather is respectable (could be quite windy and/or rainy), Joe Burrow and Ja’Maar Chase are right back in a fantasy firework type of environment.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase
Bring-Back Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker
Matthew Stafford ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) – As much as I want to fade the Stafford chalk, the AETY Model says he is the best points-per-dollar play on the board. The Arizona defense is coming back down to show their true colors and Stafford has his main man, Cooper Kupp, back in full action. This is the second worst pass defense (DVOA) on the slate and the oddsmakers must agree when they posted an opening 285 yard passing prop for Stafford (highest on the slate). The Rams offense plays a lot of no huddle and has a high passing rate over expectation… things we like to see when rostering a cheap quarterback in NFL DFS.

Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – You can certainly play any of the higher priced running backs (CMC, Bijan, Etienne, or Jacobs), but I’ll be using more value at the running back position to help build around the stud wideouts I want to prioritize. Kamara will likely be the highest I go in salary in my single entry GPP lineups. His usage has been through the roof (and I do worry that is coming down), but this is a game against a struggling Houston defense where the Saints will come to play.
Kenneth Walker ($6,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – Too expensive for me on FanDuel, but at 3-5% ownership, Kenneth walker is an excellent GPP pivot against a Bengals’ defense that grades second to last in run defense DVOA. He’s quite touchdown dependent, but he’s a big play waiting to happen at any moment. The Seattle offensive line should be able to have their way with the interior of the Bengals defensive line.
Raheem Mostert ($6,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – The nut-best running back matchup on the board. Sure, we can speculate that Jeff Wilson Jr. or Salvon Ahmed have an annoying role on Sunday, but I don’t want to overthink it… at least in our cash game lineups. Shout-out to FanDuel for getting the price correct.
Joe Mixon ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – There is nothing sexy about Joe Mixon but this guy doesn’t leave the field. His usage is fantastic and is one of the few running backs on this slate that has a path to 18+ touches on a weekly basis. This game is a relatively appealing one from a stacking standpoint and it appears Mixon’s ownership projections are in a free-fall as everyone runs back to Ja’Maar Chase. In tournaments, I can certainly get behind Mixon although we’re begging for some serious goal-line work.
D’Andre Swift ($6,100 DK / $7,200 FD) – He’s going to be extremely popular, but there are just too many good things going for D’Andre Swift and this offensive line (ranked third in run offense DVOA). This Jets’ defense can be ran on and they rank 23rd in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. Swift is the guy in the Eagles backfield whenever the game is in a neutral or one-score environment. It’s hard to pass on this value.
Chuba Hubbard ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – If you need the free-square running back, no need to overthink this one. Hubbard is obviously mis-priced due to a late injury keeping Sanders off the field in Week 6.

Honorable Mention: Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne Jr., Kyren Williams, Alexander Mattison (absolutely love this spot here, just a little concerned about Cam Akers getting a decent workload)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Tyreek Hill	Davante Adams	A.J. Brown
Cooper Kupp	Garrett Wilson	Brandon Aiyuk
Davante Adams	AJ Brown	Tyreek Hill
Brandon Aiyuk	Cooper Kupp	Davante Adams
Puka Nacua	Ja’Maar Chase	Mike Evans (Q)
AJ Brown	DJ Moore	DJ Moore
Mike Evans (Q)	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Garrett Wilson
Ja’Maar Chase	Puka Nacua	Chris Olave
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Michael Pittman Jr.	Amari Cooper
Marquise Brown	Tyreek Hill	Marquise Brown

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $8,700 FD) – My #1 wideout for the week is going to be Cooper Kupp. I saw enough last week that Kupp is good to go and will be the featured piece of this Rams’ passing attack. Puka Nacua is a stud, don’t get me wrong, but Nacua being on the field greatly helps Kupp. Let’s ride!
Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,300 FD) – For NFL DFS GPP lineups, I’m going to be extremely interested in Davante Adams. Coming off of a down game against his former team, Davante Williams gets’ a depleted Patriots’ secondary that features J.C. Jackson (who Davante Adams has torched throughout his short tenure in Las Vegas). At 5% ownership, I’ll be doing whatever I can to get exposure to Davante Adams against the Patriots’ Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense.
Calvin Ridley ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Taking outside receivers against the Colts’ secondary has become a staple in this article. The Colts will play a ton of Cover-3 and mix in some Cover-4, and that is where Calvin Ridley accels in terms of his targets per routes ran with Trevor Lawrence.

I won’t talk you off Christian Kirk ($5,400 DK / $6,600 FD) either. It’s very rare to see someone priced in the low $5K range with a receiving prop over 60-yards. Having said that, when price isn’t a factor, Ridley is my guy versus these coverage schemes.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Great price for a solid matchup to where Pittman has a significant size advantage and coverage upgrades. The Jaguars will show a ton of Cover-3 and Cover-1 defense with a good bit of blitz… All three of the above are advantage Michael Pittman Jr. At 5% ownership, Pittman is best left for GPP’s and/or game-stacks, but the price is lovely if you believe in Gardner Minshew.

Josh Downs ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) is also in a nice spot and the ownership will warrant serious consideration to your cash game lineup.
Jordan Addison ($5,700 DK / $6,700 FD) & K.J. Osborn ($4,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – Absolutely loved the 3% ownership smash we had on Jordan Addison last week! Nailed it. This week, this is an honorary write-up due to the matchup against the minor league secondary the Bears’ will trot out and the ownership for both Addison and Osborn. In tournaments, I’ll probably fade the whole situation and maybe pivot to Mattison, but I will not talk anyone off these receivers in this matchup.
Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! For the price on DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats.
Drake London ($4,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – London and this Atlanta passing game is finally come alive and the secondary for Washington is less than stellar, to say the least. Washington currently grades 28th in pass defense DVOA and will play a lot of Man-coverage with both single-high and two-high safeties. These are coverages where London has shined. At DraftKings specifically, this is a fantastic price for a true WR1 that no one will play… the only downside here is the potential lack of passing volume in the Falcons’ offense (but that is also factored into the price). No need to mention what the hell DJ Moore, AJ Brown, and Stefon Diggs just did to this secondary.
Salary Relief “Punt” Options: Kendrick Bourne, DJ Chark Jr., Robert Woods, Rondale Moore, Brandon Powell, Jamal Agnew

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, DJ Moore, Adam Thielen, Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett

Tight-Ends

Not a whole lot to discuss at the tight-end position this week. You’re either paying up for Hockenson, taking a mid-tier priced Evan Engram, our punting the position. I’ll simply make a list of those targets for the week.

T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Without Justin Jefferson, I truly believe Hockenson is the biggest benefactor on this offense. He is by far and away the highest floor tight-end on this slate and someone we should highly considering rostering while the field punts at the position.
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,500 FD)
Zach Ertz ($3,600 DK / $5,200 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
Logan Thomas ($3,500 DK / $5,400 FD)
Hayden Hurst ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD) – GPP’s only
Mike Gesicki ($2,600 DK / $4,700 FD) – Risky as all hell and NOT cash-viable. More of a breakdown on the 1st and Stix Podcast.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Raheem Mostert
Chuba Hubbard
Marquise Brown
Ja’Maar Chase
T.J. Hockenson

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Davante Adams
Drake London
Cooper Kupp

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 5

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 5 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 10-game slate with some high totals that we will certainly want to keep an eye on for ownership/leverage/etc! Overall, this will be a short article as I’m taking a very condensed stand on this slate.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. On a small-slate this week, some of the higher total games on the slate the field will love to target will be:

– New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5) / 49.5 Point Total
– Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Los Angeles Rams / 51 Point Total
– Kansas City Chiefs (-5) @ Minnesota Vikings / 53.5 Point Total

Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD) – On a slate with very little Quarterback value, I’m likely going to start my build with a star quarterback who has significant rushing upside. In terms of overall floor and ceiling, I don’t think anyone comes close to Jalen Hurts against the Rams defense that grades in the bottom seven on this slate in overall defense DVOA. Hurts is my overall QB1 on this slate (Mahomes is obviously right there) and will be my cash and GPP quarterback. If you do not wish to be that exposed to Hurts (especially in both formats), the Honorable Mention plays below are certainly worth a look.

Stack Options: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, D’Andre Swift, Dallas Goedert
Bring-Back Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, Kyren Williams

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes (probably my FanDuel cash quarterback), Anthony Richardson (cash-viable if the ownership is high), Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson (GPP Only)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD) – By far the top running back on this slate that has no McCaffrey, Pollard, Walker, Ekeler, etc. The Texans are 28th in run defense DVOA and 27th in DVOA against pass catching running backs. This offense runs through Bijan Robinson and the positive touchdown regression is going to come in a hurry. Let’s play the hell out of him before he gets priced up with Christian McCaffrey. The Falcons’ offensive line should reek havoc in this matchup!
Joe Mixon ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – With a lot of the public heading towards the value running backs in high-total games, Joe Mixon should slide under the radar in a fantastic matchup against the Cardinals 27th ranked run defense (DVOA). This is damn near must-win territory for the struggling Bengals and they will lean on Joe Mixon like they have all season (over 80% of the team’s rushing attempts). Usage is king at the running back position.
De’Von Achane ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – What else can we say about De’Von Achane? This dude is special and Mike McDaniel knows it. We love to see the production and the snap share continuously rise into a playable fantasy rate (over 60% in Week 4) and I’m sure the NFL DFS community will be all over him as well. DFS code would say that you want exposure to double-digit home-favorite running backs and that’s exactly what Achane offers us this week. I would expect to still see a lot of Mostert and perhaps some Ahmed, but Achane has to be their guy when they need a play to be made. Assuming his ownership is north of 20%, I’d lock Achane into your cash game lineups.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DK / $7,700 FD) – I left Swift out of the player pool last week and lucked out a bit that he didn’t have a bigger game. I was concerned with the blowout potential against the Commanders and what that would look like from a Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott perspective. This week, we shouldn’t have much blowout concern as the Eagles’ defense is starting to look human and the Rams’ offense can put up points. When the game is within two scores, the Eagles are leaning on D’Andre Swift for their running back touches. Assuming the public flocks to Achane in this price-range, D’Andre Swift may be an excellent GPP pivot in our NFL DFS contests this week. It’s never a bad idea to get exposure to the running back of the team with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ run defense is middle of the pack, but if you want cheap exposure to the lead running back of the highest team total on the slate, Pachecho is your guy. As we likely lock in Travis Kelce in our cash game lineup, I will likely only use Pacheco in GPP builds as we still have come concerns with Jerick McKinnon running routes in the red-zone.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, James Conner, Alexander Mattison

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, the WR pool is going to be tough to load up on, but there is a lot of value!

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders
Tyreek Hill	Justin Jefferson	A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown	Puka Nacua	Justin Jefferson
DeAndre Hopkins	Ja’Maar Chase	Tyreek Hill
Puka Nacua	A.J. Brown	Chris Olave
Justin Jefferson	Tyreek Hill	Puka Nacua
Nico Collins 🙂	Michael Pittman	Nico Collins
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Chris Olave	DeAndre Hopkins
Chris Olave	Garrett Wilson	Kendrick Bourne
JuJu Smith-Schuster (what?)	Marquise Brown	Tutu Atwell
Marquise Brown	Amon-Ra. St Brown	Marquise Brown

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate. Minimum of 60 routes ran to qualify.

A.J. Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – I have nothing bad to say about Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill (maybe gamescript for Tyreek Hill, but I’m reaching) for NFL DFS Week 5 lineups. If you can afford them and want to make them a priority play, I will not argue that. My #1 wideout for the week is going to be A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown came into this year as a notorious man-coverage beater (something Raheem Morris is surprisingly implementing a LOT this season) and someone I would always target against defenses with a high man-coverage rate.

2022 Stats vs. Man-Coverage:
– 1st in targets per game
– 1st in receiving yards per game
– 1st in receiving touchdowns per game

The truly impressive thing here is that A.J. Brown has now taken a MASSIVE leap forward in his success and involvement against zone-coverage (the Rams will also play a healthy bit of Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone)… see below. To top it all off, Brown is currently is 4th among ALL wide receivers in overall targets per routes ran.

2023 Stats vs. Cover-3 & Cover-4:
– 2nd in targets per game (trails Puka Nacua)
– Tied for 2nd in receptions per game (trails Puka Nacua and tied with Justin Jefferson)
– 5th in receiving yards per game
– Tied for 2nd in touchdowns per game

The dude is a fantasy and real-life superstar. He’s a full go for me in any format.
Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – Just way too cheap for a clear target-hog against a putrid defense. I don’t expect a world-beating type of game with this Jets’ offense and Zach Wilson especially, but on DraftKings specifically, this is a great price for the floor Wilson should offer cash game lineups.
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – Ridiculous pricing for Hopkins against this Colts’ secondary. He may not be 2023 Puka Nacua, but this passing game runs through DeAndre Hopkins and like Garrett Wilson, the floor is stupid high in comparison to the price on both NFL DFS outlets. Give D-Hop a serious look in all formats against whatever the Colts throw out in their secondary!
Jordan Addison ($5,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Obviously, if you can afford Justin Jefferson ($9,400 DK / $9,200 FD) in an expected shootout with a total over 50-points, you play him. I want to attack this game, but it’s going to take a lot of creativity in your build to do so. I’ll likely be getting my Vikings’ exposure via rookie, Jordan Addison. I can’t imagine anyone in the field plays him when he’s surrounded by cheaper/safer WR1s like Nico Collins and others in this article, so I’ll certainly give him a run in GPP contests. It’s certainly risky, but Jordan Addison should see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed in single man-coverage as the Chiefs’ secondary tries to bracket Justin Jefferson.

The anticipated coverage for Kansas City is going to be a lot of man coverage and a decent bit of Cover-4. Addison’s targets per routes ran against those coverages are much higher than his baseline target share. Lastly, despite a couple quiet outings, Addison is still 25th on this slate in air yards. He’s a big play waiting to happen in what could be a back-and-forth fantasy point explosion on all sides of spectrum.
Marquise Brown ($5,000 DK / $6,400 FD) – There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! I do like the Bengals here in a bounce-back and that should lead to another busy day for Hollywood in the passing game. He’s in play for all formats.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – As always, if you need a punt-play, the AETY Model and my (definitely biased) opinion loves Wan’Dale Robinson in what should be an extremely negative gamescript against the high-powered Miami Dolphins. We talked about it in Discord before Monday Night, but Wan’Dale is ramping up his usage and starting to return to being Daniel Jones’ guy (for whatever that is worth… the Giants are bad at football). In Week 4, Robinson was second in receiver routes ran and first in first reads from Daniel Jones by a wide margin, in a negative gamescript against the Seahawks. For the stone minimum and a great passing gamescript, Wan’Dale is viable in all formats (on DraftKings specifically).

Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, DeVonta Smith, Tutu Atwell, Zay Flowers (GPP), George Pickens, Adam Thielen (if Brian Branch is OUT), Rondale Moore OR Demario Douglas (GPP punt pivots if Wan’Dale is chalk)

Tight-Ends

Tight End Targets per Routes Ran

Travis Kelce

Sam LaPorta

Zach Ertz

Jonnu Smith??

T.J. Hockenson

Mark Andrews

Kylen Granson

Darren Waller

*Basic tight-end metric for this slate. Minimum 50 routes ran.

Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,789 FD???) – By far the TE1 on this slate and we all know it. The obvious pairing if you’re playing Patrick Mahomes in this shootout and a lock for our DraftKings cash games. I have no problem if you want to go double tight-end this week.
T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Excellent price (especially on FanDuel) for one of the biggest red-zone threats in the highest total game on the slate. For FanDuel cash game purposes, I’ll likely use Mahomes as my quarterback for Chiefs’ exposure and then use Hockenson for the tight-end spot on the other side of that game.
Tyler Higbee ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) – Like Logan Thomas last week (who missed a touchdown by one-yard), I’ll continue to go to tight-ends against the Eagles. The Eagles rank dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and that’s always nice because most teams are playing from behind from the jump against the Eagles. It’s a nice cheap bring-back if you’re playing Jalen Hurts, but Higbee is certainly viable as a one-off as well.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Jalen Hurts
De’Von Achane
DeAndre Hopkins
Travis Kelce
Wan’Dale Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Jordan Addison
D’Andre Swift
Isiah Pachecho
AJ Brown

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 4

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Hopefully not all of you rode the Desmond Ridder risk train with me last week, lol. We were close to having Kyle Pitts for a 70+ yard touchdown, but it is what it is. Let’s get back into things for Week 4!

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. This week, some of the higher total games on the slate the field will love to target will be:

– Miami @ Buffalo (-2.5) / 53.5 Point Total
– Denver Broncos (-3) @ Chicago Bears / 47 Point Total
– Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5) 49 Point Total
– Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) / 45 Point Total

Justin Herbert ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Herbert is back in the article… what a surprise! As long as Jimmy Garoppolo plays, Justin Herbert and this Chargers’ offense should be in store for a busy, busy day against the Raiders’ atrocious secondary and a pass defense that ranks 3rd to last on this slate (DVOA). If Jimmy is OUT, I’d likely limit my exposure to Herbert to cash games only.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Josh Kelley
Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – The Bills defense is tough, but it’s hard to avoid a 3-5% owned Tua in NFL DFS GPP contests. The Dolphins are healthy on offense with the return of Jaylen Waddle and they’re number one in total offense DVOA. It’s very possible this game is much slower than the public anticipates, but if it shoots-out, you know the stackable pieces to make a game-stack that can climb the leaderboards in a hurry.

Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis
Anthony Richardson ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – Richardson is back after missing last week’s game with a concussion and will likely lead the slate in QB ownership (he or Josh Allen). The AETY Model is right on market with Sportsbooks and has Richardson projected for 44 rushing yards, 209 passing yards, and 1.37 passing touchdowns. The passing touchdown number is a little light for my liking but Richardson offers us a significant higher floor than most due to the rushing ability and the elite no-huddle rate at which the Colts play.

Stack Options: Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Zack Moss
Bring-Back Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams
Russell Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – As mentioned on the 1st and Stix Podcast, the Bears’ secondary is absolutely decimated (Eddie Jackson, Jaylon Johnson, and Josh Blackwell are OUT) and is one we will continue to attack. Russ will likely be one of the more popular quarterback plays on DraftKings but he’s the top value on the AETY Model by a wide margin and offers us a lot of salary relief to get exposure to the studs we build our lineups around.

Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Marvin Mims Jr.
Bring-Back Options: DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Chase Claypool
Matt Stafford ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – GPP Only play, but I love this spot for Stafford and the passing game to leverage the ridiculous ownership on Kyren Williams. It should be one of the faster games on this slate as both teams rank inside the top-10 in pass attempts per game and top-15 in play clock remaining per play… In addition, the Colts will likely be without their best pass-rusher, DeForest Buckner.

Stack Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams
Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Zack Moss, Josh Downs

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Tony Pollard ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD)
James Cook ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – James Cook is going to come into this matchup around 5% ownership and offers us all a way to get significantly different in our GPP builds, in a game the public is going to want to stack. This is a leverage play off of all of that chalk in the low $6K range on DraftKings (Zack Moss, Kyren Williams, Alexander Mattison, Swift, etc.) and a plus-matchup against the Dolphins’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). I prefer the NFL DFS GPP pivot on DraftKings due to the pass-catching upside and unfortunate lack of goal-line work.
Kyren Williams ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – Play him in cash! 25% or greater ownership projection. Feel free to lock him in your GPP lineups as well if you love the situation, but he’ll be a fade for me in GPP builds and locked in cash.
Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Gamescript killed us last week so it is yet again, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). The price is absurd on both outlets and so will the ownership. Lock him in your cash game lineups and use the salary relief in GPPs if you need it.
Zack Moss ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – The usage for Zack Moss has been incredible and getting the dual-threat, Anthony Richardson back in the lineup should free up the running lanes for Mr. Moss against the Rams’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Like Kyren Williams, Zack Moss just doesn’t leave the field and that’s tough to pass up in NFL DFS lineups. I’ll likely ride Anthony Richardson in cash games and pivot to Zack Moss in GPP builds.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Alexander Mattison, D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Roschon Johnson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($9,200 DK / $9,600 FD) – What do you need me to say about Tyreek Hill? This guy is putting on an absolute clinic thus far as he enters this matchup (with no Jordan Poyer for the Bills) 4th in First Reads, 1st in Targets per Routes Ran, and 1st in Air Yards. This dude is a magician in any matchup, especially when it’s a projected higher scoring, back-and-forth battle.
Keenan Allen ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Keenan Allen HAS taken over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week as mentioned in last Sunday’s article. He’s going to be one of the highest owned wideouts on the slate and makes for a perfect cash game wide receiver and GPP viable, if Garoppolo goes.

Josh Palmer ($4,000 DK / $6,100 FD) is also an extreme value of the week and likely a staple for most of my lineups on DraftKings.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – The only downside here is the low total (41 points) and extremely slow pace. Other than that, this is the nut matchup for WR1s against the Titans’ secondary we discuss every week. As long as you trust Joe Burrow’s health, this is a lock and load situation for Ja’Maar Chase and the rest of this Bengals’ receiving core.
Puka Nacua ($6,700 DK) / ($7,500 FD) – Still way too cheap for someone with this type of target share in a fantastic matchup against the Colts’ secondary and a nice gamescript pivot around Kyren Williams chalk.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – 5% owned against a struggling, limited-talent defense. Pittman is Top-10 in 1st Read Leaders and Top-15 in Targets Per Routes Ran… If this game turns into a bit of a track meet, we may have a slate breaker on our hands.
Courtland Sutton ($5,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – As mentioned in the Wilson writeup, the Bears’ secondary is pure trash and this should be a coming out party for both Jerry Jeudy ($6,600 DK / $6,600 FD) and Courtland Sutton against the 31st ranked pass defense (DVOA) that plays a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Sutton) and Cover-3 (advantage Jeudy).
Adam Thielen ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Pure ownership play in cash games. I have literally zero interest in the “revenge” narrative for Adam Thielen in GPP lineups, but if 35% or more of the field is going to play him in cash, I’ll ride the train.
Calvin Austin ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – If you need a punt-play, the AETY Model seems to love this spot against a banged up Houston Texans’ secondary. Over the past two-weeks, Calvin Austin is clocking inside the top 15% of the league in Air-Yards. It’s a bit of a silly metric, but he’s starting to become a key contributor to the Steelers’ offense (for whatever that is worth).

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams (if Jimmy is IN), Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Gabe Davis, Jakobi Meyers, DJ Chark Jr, Kendrick Bourne, Quentin Johnston

Tight-Ends

George Kittle ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – Criminally low priced in a great matchup against a team that continues to struggle covering the tight-end. If Deebo and/or Aiyuk are limited in any fashion, Kittle should be a staple for 5 catches and 55+ receiving yards.
Jake Ferguson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If we’re not paying up for Kittle, Andrews, or Hockenson, we might as well punt down to a tight-end with significant red-zone upside. The Patriots will do their best to scheme away CeeDee Lamb and that should open up the middle of the field for Ferguson. It’s not a preferred play by any means, but this is what we get when we punt tight-end.
Pat Freiermuth ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Freiermuth is going to be the highest owned tight-end by a wide margin. I’ll 100% fade in GPP builds but lock him into your DraftKings cash lineups. On Fanduel, find the extra $800 for Kittle.
Logan Thomas ($3,100 DK / $5,000 FD) – In a negative gamescript, I’ll roll the dice on the returning big-bodied pass-catcher for the Washington Commanders. It’s a very light sample size, but the Eagles grade 32nd in DVOA against opposing tight-ends.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Zach Ertz

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Kyren Williams
Javonte Williams
Ja’Maar Chase
Pat Freiermuth
Josh Palmer

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Michael Pittman Jr.
James Cook
Tyreek Hill
Josh Palmer

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 3

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but again, we had a lot of success sneaking in the pay line in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 3.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, it will be very interesting to see where the field goes to open up value for the Chalk-City Shootout in Minnesota (54.5 point total… no other game is higher than 48.5).

Justin Herbert ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD) – Herbert seems to be a staple in this article week after week. This is by far the highest total on the slate and a game that should not disappoint from a fantasy perspective. With how much pressure the Vikings have been bringing this year and grading top-12 in Pass Defense DVOA, I’d say Herbert and his high ownership is probably best left for cash games (he struggles a bit against the blitz).

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley,
Bring-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Addison
Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD) – This is a full steam ahead play for Kirk Cousins against the Chargers’ dead last pass defense (DVOA). Pair that with the incredible passing rate over expectation for the Vikings and you’re bound to have fantastic fantasy production. The Vikings simply cannot run the football effectively and will continue to drop back and sling it. Cousins has a fantastic matchup at home here and will be a popular GPP and cash play for the DFS community.

Stack Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley
Trevor Lawrence ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Despite being almost a double-digit home favorite here against the Texans, Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the safest quarterbacks for me on this slate. The Texans will be without their top cover-cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr. and should abuse this defense as a whole for four quarters. The AETY Model has him as one of the top values at the quarterback position with a sexy cash-game floor of 255 passing yards and two touchdowns. Fire up Lawrence in all formats and expect a monster comeback performance after a let-down last week against a tough Chiefs’ defense.

Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk
Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods
DeShaun Watson ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a high total or an up-paced game environment at all, but Watson has the Tennessee Titans and that is always something we’re interested in attacking with a passing game. Watson is probably better off as a cash game play and offers a great floor with his running ability.
Desmond Ridder ($5,000 DK GPP Only) – Alright, the NFL DFS Puke Play of the Week! If you are looking for a way to afford some of these stud wide receivers in the higher total games, you’re going to need some salary relief. According the the AETY Model, the number one value at the quarterback position is Desmond Ridder. Keep in mind there is significant risk when rostering Ridder. You’re rostering the quarterback who is on the team that is second to last in the NFL in pass attempts per game… Arthur Smith wants to run the football at all costs.

On the bright-side, David Montgomery is likely missing this game with an injury and this Lions’ offense is going to need to beat Atlanta through the air. Atlanta is a pass funnel defense and I’m sure Ben Johnson is aware of that. These pass catchers for Detroit are healthy and should look to step on the gas from the get go and make Arthur Smith get out of his comfort zone to throw the football. On the other side of things, Arthur Smith should want to throw the football more against a depleted Lions’ secondary that already ranks 5th to last on this slate in pass defense DVOA. What Ridder does with his legs is just pure bonus points for us, but there should be a good floor here against a defense that runs a lot of man coverage with heavy blitz rates.

Stack Options: Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts
Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta, Jahmyr Gibbs

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff

NFL DFS Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Best running back on the slate and likely comes in extremely under-owned. I don’t want to prioritize running backs against the Lions’ but he’s arguably the best pass catcher on the team as well. There is nothing about Cordarrelle Patterson returning to the lineup that hinders my love for Bijan. Having said that, Tony Pollard ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD) would be the preferred option in cash game lineups.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Fantastic game environment for Etienne and the Jaguars here against the absolute worst rush defense in the NFL (32nd in run defense DVOA). The only downside here is how much we’ll see of Tank Bigsby in the red-zone, but Etienne will be extremely active in the passing game with Zay Jones likely out.
Kenneth Walker II ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – More of a cash play for me in terms of the high projected ownership, but Kenneth Walker is in a great matchup against the Panthers and their 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). I’ll likely just jam him in my cash lineup to follow the ownership crowd, but will avoid in GPPs due to the offensive line issues that were clearly a problem for the Seahawks last week in Detroit.
Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap price for a guy I’ve been waiting on for the first couple of weeks. It is now officially, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). After seeing him get back into form a bit in Week One and damn-near be the only ball-carrier for the Broncos in Week Two, it is time for Sean Payton to unleash Javonte Williams against the Dolphins’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA) in. The AETY Model grades the Denver Broncos running game against the Miami Dolphins’ run defense as the #1 positive matchup to attack. It’s still quite early and falling in love with 2023 models may be premature, but in GPP’s I’ll take the chance on a ridiculously affordable, dual-threat running back, in a great game environment with some humidity that should bode well for his previously injured knee.
Josh Kelley ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley is a lock for me in all formats. I do not care about his ownership as this matchup is perfect for the Chargers’ running game. The Vikings’ run defense against the Chargers’ ground game is the #2 mismatch on the AETY Model (behind the one listed above).
Jerome Ford ($4,800 DK / $5,600 FD) – If you need the “free-square” salary relief running back, Jerome Ford will surely be that guy this week. As we’ve mentioned the past two weeks, the running game matchup against the Titans’ is not a sexy one. Leave Ford to cash games only as he likely garners 35% or higher ownership in Week 3 NFL DFS.
Kendre Miller ($4,300 DK / $4,600 FD) – It sounds like Kendre Miller is going to be a full-go this week against the Packers’ weak run defense. I don’t fully trust that Miller gets a ton of snaps, but we know Pete Carmichael does not want to use a lot of Tony Jones Jr. This is Kendre Miller’s time to shine before Alvin Kamara returns next week.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Isiah Pacheco

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,700 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and will be locked in for all formats. The floor is simply too high. If you cannot afford him in cash games, use Kirk Cousins to get your exposure that way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – With everyone trying to pay up for Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to come into this week at 5-10% ownership. The upside here is fantastic as we mentioned the Lions likely lean on Jared Goff and this passing attack. The Falcons will play a ton of man coverage and that is where Jared Goff looks for Amon-Ra early and often (AETY Model projects a 36% target share against man coverage). Also, the matchup on the inside against Dee Alford is a fruitful one for Mr. St. Brown.
Keenan Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD) – Keenan Allen is legit taking over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week. This week, it’s a solid matchup in an extremely high total game… against a Vikings’ team that plays a ton of Cover-3 zone and has the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Advantage Keenan.
Calvin Ridley ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel, but certainly in play on DraftKings as well. If Zay Jones is out, Calvin Ridley’s usage will likely skyrocket against a Texans’ defense that is out their top cover cornerback. I love this spot for the Jaguars’ offense as a whole. Christian Kirk is also in a smash spot here on the inside of this depleted secondary.
Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK) / ($6,200 FD) – Your classic WR1 against the Tennessee Titans’ pass-funnel defense and Kristian Fulton. At the price, this should be a fine play in all formats though I would lean towards cash games with this slow paced game environment.

Elijah Moore ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD) has a low-key fantastic matchup here as well against the Titans’ man-coverage.
Courtland Sutton ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – If this game turns into a shootout, Courtland Sutton should be in a great spot here on the outside against Eli Apple and Xavien Howard. It’s a bit tough to handicap this receiving core and the expected target shares, but the Dolphins will play a nice mix of man coverage and Cover-3 zone, which will keep both Sutton and Jeudy active in the pecking order.

Drake London ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) is also someone I like a great deal in that price-range… especially if you’re going to have the stones to play Desmond Ridder.
Braxton Berrios ($3,600 DK / $5,100 FD) – Assuming Jaylen Waddle is OUT, the DFS community will likely flock towards Braxton Berrios. The price is great and the matchup against Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis should give Berrios a lot of room to succeed in one of the best offenses in football. I prefer him as a cash game play but he’s fine for all NFL DFS formats if and only if Waddle is OUT.
Tank Dell ($3,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – Getting a cheap bring-back for the Texans in what should be a very negative gamescript makes a lot of sense here. Nico Collins is an absolute beast and I love to see it (one year after I play the hell out of him, lol), but for the savings, Tank Dell is very interesting. Tank Dell is the only wide receiver who is cheaper than $4K on DraftKings that is Top-25 on the slate in targets per routes ran and first read on quarterback drop-backs… Those are very telling metrics that Tank Dell is a focal point of this offense.
Justin Watson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you listened to the 1st and Stix Podcast for Week 3, first off… thank you! Second off, you were probably thrown way off-guard when I mentioned Justin Watson’s name. The stat was: of the top 35 players in air-yards, only three of them have not had a double-digit fantasy outing so far in 2023. Those three are Jonathan Mingo, Michael Wilson, and Justin Watson.

One of these things is not like the other… Mingo and Wilson are a part of horrid offenses. Justin Watson is a part of one of the best offenses in the NFL. If Kadarius Toney and Richie James are OUT, Justin Watson is my 1% owned GPP flyer of the week. He should absolutely break a deep ball or two against this practice-squad talent in the Bears’ secondary.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Jordan Addison, Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins (cash-viable at his ownership), Drake London, Elijah Moore, Robert Woods

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Ownership will be incredibly low for the best tight-end in football.

TJ Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Rather cheap exposure to one of the best weapons in the highest total game on the slate. The Chargers will run a healthy mix of Cover-3 and blitz which will open things up in the middle of the field for TJ Hockenson.
Sam LaPorta ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – Excellent price for a key pass-catcher on the Lions’ offense that is expected to pass the ball a lot. When the Falcons show blitz and some Cover-3 zone, that is where LaPorta should shine in this matchup.
Kyle Pitts ($3,900 DK Only) – It’s gross, but I need a cheap stack option with Desmond Ridder if I want to fill the rest of my roster with studs. Kyle Pitts isn’t getting a ton of love in this offense but is still second amongst NFL Tight-Ends in route participation. The Lions will play a ton of Cover-2 and man coverage which should open up the world for Kyle Pitts to run wild (if they pass the ball). The best cover safety for the Lions, Kerby Joseph, will likely miss this game after being carted off the field last week. C’mon, 1% Pitts!
Zach Ertz ($3,500 DK Only) – With the potential weather concerns in Washington, just take the affordable Zach Ertz who’s getting targeted at an elite clip. This will be another negative gamescript for the Arizona Cardinals.
Cole Turner ($2,700 DK / $4,600 FD) – Total punt play with Logan Thomas out (concussion). The weather is likely to be a mess in this Buffalo @ Washington game but at the prices, Kincaid and Turner are viable.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, Hayden Hurst

Defense / Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets (cash game lock at their ownership)
Carolina Panthers

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins
Josh Kelley
Keenan Allen
Zach Ertz
New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Desmond Ridder
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Javonte Williams
Kyle Pitts

2 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 2

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but we had a ton of success sweeping the board in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 2.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, I do love the top of the board and it will be tough to make a decision on where to go.

Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – Josh Allen laid an absolute egg on Monday Night Football. There is no other way to put it. The Jets’ defense is going to be one of the best defenses in all of football and it was Week One… let’s not jump the gun here. This is an absolute fantastic matchup against the Raiders’ defense we thought would have gotten destroyed by Russell Wilson and the Broncos (no comment on that game-plan and pace of play from Sean Payton). Josh Allen will be at home and ready to right the ship as he leads the Bills’ and their slate-leading implied team total (~28.5 points) right past one of the worst defenses in football.

It will be hard to not glue Josh Allen (or Stefon Diggs) into our cash game lineups and you’re obviously more than welcome to fire Josh Allen in NFL DFS GPP contests, but he will be popular in a tough gamescript to project.

Stack Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis
Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD) – Get ready to puke, but my 1% GPP ONLY play of the week (weather permitting) is going to be Justin Fields. Yes, the Vikings arguably pass more than anyone in the NFL, but this Bucs’ defense gave up over 270 passing yards to Kirk Cousins in ONE HALF. I mention that because we need any boost we can when trying to find an upside matchup for Justin Fields’ passing game. In addition, the Bucs will likely be missing one of their better defensive backs, Carlton Davis, and pass rushed Calijah Kancey.

On the not so gross side of things, we play Justin Fields for his rushing ability. Todd Bowles and the Bucs love to bring the blitz and that’s where Justin Fields historically loves to use his legs. In 2022, against teams that have a well above average blitz rate, Fields averaged over 100 rushing yards per game. If the weather stays respectable for a fantasy football environment, Justin Fields could break this slate wide open.

Stack Options: Cole Kmet, DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney
Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – A little bit of a bummer last week for Herbert but the rushing touchdown saved his fantasy day. The Titans’ defense is an absolute pass-funnel as expected and this will be a situation to attack on a weekly basis. Hell, Derek Carr torched them for over 300 yards. Look for Kellen Moore to really dial up a strong game-plan for the air attack, just like he did last season when the Cowboys went to Nashville to play the Titans pass-funnel defense and they threw the ball 41 times (8 more than their team average) despite never being behind in that game. Keep in mind, Tony Pollard was out that week, but from the looks of things, Austin Ekeler is doubtful to dress for this one as well.

With or without Ekeler, Herbert is a fantastic NFL DFS play on any given week, but this is almost a scream from the mountain-top type of play if Ekeler misses this one. Moore will lean on Herbert and this passing attack. At a current ownership projection around 5%, Herbert is a full-go in any format you wish to play.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Bring-Back Options: DeAndre Hopkins (D), Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks (if Hopkins OUT), Chig Okonkwo
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Pretty damn cheap on FanDuel, but always in play on DraftKings in a matchup against a depleted Ravens’ secondary. Top coverage defensive backs Marlon Humphrey is likely OUT and Marcus Williams will miss the majority of this season with a torn pec, leaving Brandon Stephens, Ronald Darby, and Rock Ya-Sin to try to cover Ja’Maar Chase and Tee Higgins. Good luck to the Ravens’ secondary.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins
Bring-Back Options: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson

NFL DFS Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,200 DK / $9,500 FD) – Best running back on the slate and you don’t need me to write about McCaffrey. Loved the usage last week even when that game was relatively out of reach for the Steelers.
Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – If you can’t afford McCaffrey or want to simply pivot to someone who the AETY Model is confident will have similar usage (if not more) to CMC’s last week in Pittsburgh, fire up Saquon Barkley against the worst team in football.
Derrick Henry ($7,400 DK / $8,300 FD) – I wouldn’t look a whole lot into Tyjae Spears snap count in Week 1. This offense still runs through Derrick Henry and this is a game Mike Vrabel and company are going to try their best to slow-down. If the Titans’ want to stay in this game, they’ll be giving Derrick Henry a ton of touches in a plus-matchup against the Chargers’ defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA in 2023 and 30th in 2022. We should continue to see some work in the passing game in Week 2 against the Chargers’ heavy blitz rate.

Due to the price and those around him, Henry is more of a tournament play for me in NFL DFS this weekend.
AJ Dillon ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD) – Similar situation to Josh Kelley below. It appears Aaron Jones is going to miss Sunday’s game in Atlanta so there is some clear value in this Green Bay running back spot.
Kenneth Walker III ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – It looks like the majority of the mid-tier running back ownership is going to flock towards Kenneth Walker. I’ll likely ride the ownership wave in cash games but give a serious look to others in that price range in tournaments as the Seahawks offensive line will be missing both Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas.

On the bright side, Walker was the only running back in Week 1 to rank inside the top ten in Team Rush Attempt Share and Team Route Participation. Sometimes, volume is really all we are looking for in the mid-tier.Pair that with a good bit of Cover-2, soft zone coverage by Detroit and we should have some strong running avenues.

*David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $6,300 FD) is a serviceable pivot if Walker’s ownership gets a bit out of control… Especially on FanDuel. Keep in mind, the Lions will be out two of their top linemen and this could open up the check-down game to Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 / $5,800 FD).
Josh Kelley ($5,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley becomes this week’s Jamaal Williams. Likely a full-go in cash games (if the ownership warrants it), but I’m still leaning towards this Chargers’ passing attack as mentioned above with Kellen Moore’s history of this situation.

Honorable Mention: Bijan Robinson (excellent GPP pivot), Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon, , Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce, Zack Moss, Rachaad White

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and criminally cheap on FanDuel. Like Tyreek Hill last week, Diggs is one of the few on this slate who’s a damn-near lock for a 30% (or greater) target share against a horrible Raiders’ defense we attacked last week. The difference in Diggs’ spot this week compared to Hill’s in Week 1 is the gamescript. My only concern here is the lack of back-and-forth nature that we saw in the high-total shootout last week in Los Angeles. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders keep up with a pissed off Bills team looking to make a statement at home.

As mentioned above, Stefon Diggs or Josh Allen will be a priority for me in my cash game lineup and Diggs may end up being a priority play for me in all formats.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD) & Tee Higgins ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Basically said it all in the Burrow write-up. The Ravens should offer up a lot of Cover-3 and some Cover-1 man and that is advantage to both Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase. Look for them both to splash in this matchup against a whatever is left of this Ravens’ secondary.
Mike Evans ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD) & Chris Godwin ($6,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – If you’re into this game as a sneaky GPP game-stack or mini-stack, the Bears’ will be starting a rookie cornerback in Tyrique Stevenson to run around with Mike Evans and likely another young backup in Josh Blackwell at nickel as Kyler Gordon was placed on IR. Currently, Josh Blackwell is highly questionable to play and that puts this Bears’ secondary in a very, very dark place.
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) & Deebo Samuel ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – I’ll be happy to ride the hot hand of Brandon Aiyuk on DraftKings at that price-tag and the red-zone blitz scheme the Rams will bring to the table. For cash games, Deebo Samuel is too cheap. This Rams’ defense cannot keep up with the 49ers and the sportsbooks seem to agree as the 49ers have the 3rd highest implied team-total on the slate.
Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,700 FD) – I always love Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD) do again this week, but the price and matchup for Mike Williams is too good to pass up this week with this pass-funnel defense that will land Mike Williams across from Kristian Fulton. Williams has about a half-foot height advantage and too much skillset for a guy like Fulton, especially in the red-zone when the Titans tend to lean towards man-coverage.

UPDATE: Both Amani Hooker and Kristian Fulton are out… Let’s eat!
Jahan Dotson ($4,900 DK Only) – A week after everyone plays him… let’s ride! Basically, just the same matchup Jakobi Meyers just exploded in as Patrick Surtain will put a curtain (hehe) on Terry McLaurin for most of this matchup. Truthfully, it broke my heart to watch by “bring-back” Davante Adams get bottled up all game last week on my Russ stacks, but watching Meyers destroy the rest of this Denver secondary got me excited for Dotson in Week 2.

The price is so cheap and the AETY Model grades him as one of the best mid-tier values on the DraftKings board. Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis are arguably one of the worst coverage-back duos in the NFL.
Treylon Burks ($4,700 DK / $5,400 FD) – As of now, it appears DeAndre Hopkins will be out with an injury so that opens up the world for a hopeful breakout, Treylon Burks. As long as you think the Chargers will be able to do whatever they please through the air on offense, Treylon Burks will be heavily involved in the Titans’ passing game after a Week 1 let-down. Regardless of that game, Burks still lead this team in routes ran… production will come.

UPDATE: Hopkins is a GO. Temper expectations for Burks but his ownership will be WAY down and still a fantastic game environment for a breakout game. Tournament play only.
Josh Reynolds ($3,700 DK / $5,900 FD) – I’d love to say DraftKings only on Josh Reynolds but I absolutely love the matchup for him and obviously the price on DraftKings. He is still in play on FanDuel in this matchup to take advantage of some dreadful coverage from the Seattle secondary. We’ll likely see a ton of Cover-3 zone and that is advantage to Josh Reynolds as he works Tre Brown and Coby Bryant all day long. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) will certainly get his, but for $3,700, Josh Reynolds and the savings will be a core-play for me in all formats on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown (always cash-viable), Calvin Ridley (cash-viable at this ownership), DK Metcalf, DJ Moore (he averages like 18 fantasy points per game against the Bucs), Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Jayden Reed

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

George Kittle ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – The targets and the routes were there for Kittle last week and I love that no one is interested in him this week. The Rams will play almost exclusively 2-high and Cover-4 zone defense with a solid blitz rate… that is advantage George Kittle and our boy Deebo Samuel. If I can’t get to the price-tag in NFL DFS, I’ll get my exposure through taking his over 38.5 receiving yards in the prop market.

Kittle gets in the box this week.

Cole Kmet ($4,400 DK / $5,200 FD) – Although Carlton Davis is OUT for Week 2 (and that opens things up for DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney), I’m still likely to use Cole Kmet as my preferred stacking option with Justin Fields. The Bucs’ defense will run a lot of Cover-3 and blitz a ton (especially in the red-zone)… that is advantage Cole Kmet. When teams ran a blitz (five or more pass-rushers) inside the 15-yard-line on Justin Fields in 2022, Cole Kmet was targeted on 50% of the routes than he ran. That is absurd.

In addition, three of Kmet’s seven touchdowns came in those situations. Let’s ball out, Cole (weather permitting)!
Chig Okonkwo ($3,300 DK / $4,700 FD) – Playing Okonkwo was something we invented last year at Win Daily (feel free to go fact check that) and I’m going to go back to that spot this weekend assuming that Hopkins is out. If Hopkins is in, it’s a slight downgrade to Okonkwo, but more-so Burks. The Chargers will play a man coverage with a mix of Cover-3 and a heavy blitz rate. Tim Kelly seemed to have let Chig loose last week as it was the first time in his career he surpassed a 70% route participation. The usage and a receiver and coverage setups that benefit Chiggy make him a fantastic value play on both NFL DFS outlets.

*Bonus TE TD Scorer: George Kittle (have to run it back after the Donald Parham hit!)

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Luke Musgrave

Defense / Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans (FanDuel)
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
New York Jets

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Josh Allen
AJ Dillon
Josh Kelley
Ja’Maar Chase
Josh Reynolds

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Justin Fields
Mike Williams
Derrick Henry
Cole Kmet and/or DJ Moore (chose your bring-back of Godwin/Evans if you wish)

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend: Stix Picks

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy Playoffs Week and small slate NFL DFS! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is going to be a little different than normal. I’ll simply list all of the players that I believe are “notable” players for this weekend’s slates of games and my thoughts on said players (price, ownership, etc.).

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $9,200 FD) – Allen is clearly the highest upside play on the slate with the rushing floor and red-zone rushing equity (in addition to a relatively healthy group of weapons and a fantastic matchup against Miami), but I don’t love the idea of paying a premium for Allen as a two-score, home favorite.
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Like Allen, Burrow is a tad too pricey for my liking (on FanDuel) in the lowest total game of the weekend. The AETY Model and Vegas player props do like to think Burrow is one of the more efficient quarterbacks on this slate with 280 passing yards and 2 touchdowns baked into the projections. If you’re playing NFL DFS cash games, he’s a fine play, but I’ll likely look elsewhere in GPP lineups as I really find it hard to believe Baltimore will push this pace with no Lamar Jackson.
Justin Herbert ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – Highest total game on the slate with a tight-spread… this should be an elite spot for Justin Herbert in a back and forth game against the Jaguars. I don’t love the fact that Mike Williams is out for this game (way to go, Staley… absolute moron playing your starters in a meaningless road game last week), but I do love the guaranteed volume of Herbert. Outside of Tom Brady, no one has the floor (in terms of pass attempts) that Herbert has this weekend.
Dak Prescott ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – Not super interested in Dak Prescott, but he will be the second lowest owned quarterback (not counting Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley) on the full-weekend slate. The Cowboys’ offense is healthy and you can get rather different in GPP builds if you start your full slate builds with Prescott.
Daniel Jones ($5,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – Stupid pricing on DraftKings and the high ownership will reflect that. There’s really nothing bad to say about Daniel Jones going up against the Vikings and their 26th ranked pass defense (DVOA). The rushing floor is up there with Josh Allen and we know Jones will be confident as he destroyed this Vikings’ secondary when they played just a few weeks ago. Likely my go-to quarterback despite the ownership on the full-slate.
Geno Smith ($5,600 DK / $6,900 FD) – On the Saturday only slate, I’ll be rostering Geno Smith (pray for me). I don’t love the spot for him, but I am not impressed with the secondary and pass defense overall of the San Francisco 49ers. Geno offers a lot of salary relief and gets me a unique build for this Saturday only slate that I’m very excited about. All we need from Geno Smith is 18+ fantasy points and we should have no issues getting that as he went for a modest 15 points in their last matchup with only one rush attempt. If we get some more rushing out of Geno, he’ll be a fantastic value play in Saturday-only, GPP lineups.

*Keep an eye on the weather and be ready to pivot if it doesn’t clear up.

The Leftovers: Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Tom Brady, Brock Purdy

NFL DFS Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DK / $9,800 FD) – Lock button for me on all slates this weekend. Double-digit home favorite against a Seattle defense that grades 25th in run defense DVOA and 30th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs.
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – I’m mainly interested in Ekeler on the Saturday only slate as it looks like the field is just going to choose one of McCaffrey or Ekeler (McCaffrey will be higher owned of the two). Literally there was a whole segment on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio this week on which one you choose for NFL DFS this weekend, lol. The whole public thinks you have to choose one…

I’m going to be different by playing them both (through some others in this article, it is possible). Ekeler has the highest implied odds of a touchdown for the weekend and gets a solid bump up in the passing work (which is already top-tier) according to the AETY Model. That is mainly because of the uptick in target share Ekeler received when Mike Williams missed multiple games this season and also due to the Jaguars’ tendency to play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense. Those coverages are where Ekeler gets the majority of his passing work.

Whether or not you can stomach the salary it takes to roster both CMC and Ekeler on Saturday is up to you… I will be doing so. For the record, I’m not saying it’s an optimal move, but as you know, I like to play different.
Saquon Barkley ($7,900 DK / $8,800 FD) – Great price for a true, three-down back who doesn’t leave the field. On the full slate, Barkley will get the nod over Ekeler for me as my preferred RB2.
Joe Mixon ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Likely only in play for me on the Sunday only slate but this is an excellent spot for Mixon as a two-score favorite at home. The passing game work has really skyrocketed the baseline projections for Mixon in the AETY Model and Baltimore gives up a healthy workload to running backs in the passing game. My only concern is the random Samaje Perine carries and potential goal-line vulture.
Dalvin Cook ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – Honestly, I have no interest in Dalvin Cook. I’ve come to the conclusion this inside-zone running scheme just isn’t a great fit for him. I’ve never gotten him right this season and won’t try to do so on a slate that is loaded with quality running backs.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – Great price. Great matchup.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,100 DK / $6,600 FD) – Incredible price for a guy that is going to get 18+ touches. Only downside here is the strength of this 49ers’ defense is their ability to stop the run. Overall, the most important thing for me when rostering a running back is the expected workload and Walker checks that box.
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD) – Without Mostert, he’s the only game in town and should be on the field for all three downs, which makes him rather gamescript proof. Personally, I want nothing to do with this Miami offense, but the savings and the high-floor in touches is worth noting.

The Leftovers: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD)
Ja’Maar Chase ($8,000 DK / $8,700 FD)
CeeDee Lamb ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD) – Likely a week where I just cannot get to CeeDee Lamb. Stefon Diggs is cheaper on DraftKings and Ja’Maar Chase is only $100 more.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – Despite the blowout potential, Diggs should absolutely feast in this matchup and has a great price-tag. He’s not a priority play for me as I don’t love the game environment Skylar Thompson is likely to bring, but he’s definitely worth rostering if you need the value for a WR1 or if you’re stacking the Bills.
Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – Lock button for me on all DraftKings NFL DFS slates this weekend. Jacksonville is a bit of a pass-funnel defense and Keenan Allen trails only Justin Jefferson for the most targets in the NFL since Week 12 (and not counting Week 18). The volume is too great to ignore on a full PPR NFL DFS outlet like DraftKings.
Mike Evans ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) & Chris Godwin ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – I will likely be fading this game for the most part, but I do love the matchup for Mike Evans on the outside of this Dallas secondary. Chris Godwin is always in play due to the PPR volume, but I’d heavily lean towards Mike Evans on Monday night.
DK Metcalf ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’m always a Metcalf first kind of guy, but this week I think you take whatever your build calls for. On FanDuel, I’m definitely prioritizing Metcalf at the cheaper price-tag, and on DraftKings (I still prefer Metcalf), the savings for Tyler Lockett is note-worthy.

For Metcalf, we will likely see a shadow by Charvarius Ward (they simply have to as Deommodore Lenoir is way too small and cannot keep up with Metcalf) but that does not worry me a whole lot, especially if Vegas is right on this gamescript (49ers getting ahead early and forcing Seattle to throw a lot). Lockett certainly has a better matchup on the inside of this 49ers’ secondary.
Christian Kirk ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – I have no interest in Kirk on Fanduel at that price, but on DraftKings, he’s going to be one of the highest owned wide receivers (especially on the Saturday only slate) and gets a nice coverage-scheme bump as the Chargers will blitz a lot and play a ton of Cover-1. I will likely be fading him on the Saturday only slate (due to paying up for Ekeler and McCaffrey together) but that definitely scares me.
Zay Jones ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD) – On the other hand is also in a decent spot but the Chargers’ secondary is nothing to take lightly. Zay is cheap enough for the volume to warrant a roster spot.

The Leftovers: Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, Darius Slayton

The Value Wide Receivers

Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100 DK / $6,400 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings and likely my main pairing with Daniel Jones on the full weekend NFL DFS slate.
Richie James Jr. ($3,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – another solid value pairing on DraftKings for Daniel Jones. He’s also fine as a one-off “cheap volume” play.
DeAndre Carter ($3,600 DK / $5,700 FD) – In terms of the Saturday only slate, the popular cheap plays at the wide receiver position will be Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Jauan Jennings. When digging a bit deeper into this slate, DeAndre Carter became a “punt” play I cannot ignore. When Mike Williams was out (Weeks 8-13), DeAndre Carter ran the 12th most routes in the NFL! That is ahead of guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, etc. There’s nothing sexy about DeAndre Carter, but if the field is more inclined to play Jauan Jennings and Marvin Jones, I’ll take Carter who is going to run more routes on a team that passes it more than anyone on the Saturday NFL DFS slate.
Khalil Shakir ($3,000 DK / $4,700 FD) – McKenzie is likely OUT.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

George Kittle ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – Clear top-dog on this slate at the tight-end position. The Seahawks get absolutely torched by opposing tight-ends (they do get Ryan Neal back this week, which helps), grading 27th in pass defense DVOA against the tight-end. Pair that and Brock Purdy’s love for George Kittle and you likely have the TE1 on every slate this weekend.
Mark Andrews ($5,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Likely not getting to Andrews at all this weekend but the ownership is going to be low and he’s going to get 8+ targets as they play catchup to the Bengals. He’s in an excellent spot for GPP builds if you cannot afford Kittle.
T.J. Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – Priority play for me on the Sunday only slate. Hockenson gets so many damn targets and the Giants grade 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight-ends. I doubt we get the monster performance we got out of Hockenson in this previous matchup, but the floor is beautiful.
Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – I always adore Dalton Schultz and I love playing heavily-involved tight-ends against the Bucs. Schultz is the WR2 on Dallas but gets the tight-end eligibility in NFL DFS.
Cade Otton ($2,800 DK / $4,700 FD) – If you need a pure punt play on the full weekend slate, Cade Otton would be my recommendation. The volume and the matchup against Dallas are not sexy, but the price is low enough to where we roster him in hopes of a 4 reception and 40 yard type of game. Anything else is just icing on the cake.
Colby Parkinson ($2,500 DK ONLY) – It’s gross, but if you need $300 more in savings or prefer to take the route of Ekeler and CMC together on the Saturday only slate, Parkinson is somewhat in-play. Noah Fant is their pure route running tight-end and likely the better play, but with the significant discount Parkinson offers, I’m okay if you roll the dice with Parkinson. For whatever it’s worth, Parkinson has out-snapped and ran three more routes than Fant has over the past two weeks (which were must-win games for Seattle). The 49ers will run almost exclusively run zone (Cover-2, Cover-4, and Cover-3) and that’s when Geno targets these tight-ends a bit more than the baseline.

The Leftovers: Evan Engram, Daniel Bellinger, Gerald Everett, Noah Fant

The Fab Five (DK Saturday Only GPP)

Austin Ekeler
Christian McCaffrey
Keenan Allen
DeAndre Carter
Colby Parkinson

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 17: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

I hope everyone had an excellent holiday season and are ready for a big start of the 2023 calendar year with some NFL DFS! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Quick note regarding Quarterbacks: I’ll continue to attack the mid-tier range at the quarterback position for that value I’ve been discussing over the past month. It’s been working and this is a full slate with 13 games. There is a ton of value on this slate and the pay-up, Patrick Mahomes, is likely in a slower game environment that I will probably avoid. Justin Fields is always in-play and capable of breaking the slate on a 70-yard touchdown run, but I do worry about his health status and lack of designed runs we saw last week against Buffalo. Maybe that was just a fluke and Fields is a fantastic play this week in the highest total game on the slate, but I’m going to save money at the quarterback position again in Week 17 NFL DFS.

Aaron Rodgers ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – We’ve been picking on the Vikings’ secondary throughout this whole season and won’t stop now as we get Aaron Rodgers at home in a must-win game. If Christian Watson is out, that will hinder my love for Rodgers this week as they can simply lean heavily on the running game, but regardless, he’s in a beautiful matchup for a very affordable price. With 80% of the field likely to roster Jared Goff in cash games, I’ll leave Rodgers to the NFL DFS GPP player pool.
Deshaun Watson ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – If you’ve been following my articles lately, you know that I love playing these $5K price-range quarterbacks with rushing upside. Watson is finally priced below $6,000 (on DraftKings) and is going to be 1% owned in this Week 17 slate. As everyone looks to roster Aaron Rodgers, Mike White, and Jared Goff in this price range, the guy with the highest upside in Deshaun Watson is the forgotten man. Yes, he’s looked like garbage so far this season, but in NFL DFS GPP lineups, Deshaun Watson is one of the AETY Model’s favorite value and leverage plays on the slate at the quarterback position. The Commanders’ defense is solid, but they’re extremely beatable through the air and grade out as a top-10 adjusted-expected matchup for opposing rushing quarterbacks.
Jared Goff ($5,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’ll keep this one brief. Jared Goff is on fire in terms of fantasy points per game over the past five weeks and gets a cakewalk matchup at home against the Bears’ 29th ranked pass defense (DVOA). The Detroit Lions’ have the HIGHEST IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL on the slate, lol! I don’t know if I have ever typed those words in my life. In cash, you’re playing Jared Goff. In tournaments, Goff is still a fine play (just know you’ll need to get different elsewhere), but I’ll pivot to Rodgers or Watson in hopes that the Lions’ do most of their scoring on the ground with their three running backs.

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Mike White, Tom Brady

NFL DFS Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DK / $9,200 FD)
Dalvin Cook ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – I don’t think I’ve got Dalvin Cook right all season long, but I’ll go back to the well this week against the Packers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). This is going to be a highly competitive game with a lot of points scored (according to the AETY Model and Vegas totals), and the price is right here for a lead running back who hardly leaves the field. If the Vikings’ want to win this game, they’ll need to take advantage of the Packers’ inability to stop opposing running backs.
David Montgomery ($6,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – Montgomery is a GPP only play for me in Week 17 NFL DFS. We will see some Khalil Herbert like we did in the beginning of the season, but this offense runs through Justin Fields and David Montgomery. We’ll likely see a sub-5% ownership tag and that leverage Montgomery offers against Justin Fields’ chalk is always something noteworthy in a high-total game against a run defense that grades 26th in DVOA.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,800 DK / $7,000 FD) – Great price and a good matchup for a true three-down running back with 18+ touch equity. As long as Damien Harris is out, Stevenson is a cash game staple and fine for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Damien Harris will be active. Now off this situation as a whole.
Miles Sanders ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Like Dalvin Cook, I’ve never got Miles Sanders’ week right this season. At the price and the expected ownership (15-20%), Miles Sanders is perfect for your NFL DFS cash game lineups and is worthy of a GPP roster spot as the Eagles have the #1 DVOA advantage in terms of rushing attacks against a horrendous rushing defense.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – A double-digit home favorite at sub-5% ownership… GPP sex. The Denver Broncos run defense continues to plummet and Pachecho is hiding in-between all of the chalk value running backs. Let’s go.
Tyler Allgeier ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – It looks like the Falcons have given rookie Tyler Allgeier the keys to this offense as they start to slowly cut ties with Cordarrelle Patterson. At the price, Allgeier offers our lineup a ton of value and a safe bet for 15+ touches with significant touchdown equity. Allegeir is full-go for cash and GPP lineups in Week 17 NFL DFS.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,200 DK / $6,900 FD) – With no Antonio Gibson, lock in Brian Robinson for 18+ touches against the Browns’ 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). The AETY Model had a very hard time projecting the passing down work for this backfield now that Gibson is out, so it’s best to leave Brian Robinson to GPP lineups and just find $100 more for Tyler Allgeier if you need a cash game value running back.

*Update: Ownership now warrants a cash game roster spot for Brian Robinson Jr.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Cam Akers, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,500 DK / $9,200 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – Core play for me in all formats. I don’t really care what the ownership is. This is a prime matchup for any pass catcher against the Bears with an added bonus to those who line up in the slot.
Mike Evans ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Mike Evans historically dominates the Carolina Panthers and will enter this slate at 2-4% in ownership. Evans is one of my favorite NFL DFS GPP plays against a Panthers’ secondary who will be without their cover corner in Jaycee Horn. This is a must-win game for the Bucs’ and a perfect buy-low spot on the outside of this Carolina coverage for the struggling Mike Evans.
Amari Cooper ($5,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – As I love Deshaun Watson in GPP lineups this weekend, I obviously love his top target in Amari Cooper. With or without Benjamin St. Juste, this is a matchup Amari Cooper should thrive in and the AETY Model expects this one to go well over the total of 41 points. I wouldn’t say this is a sneaky shootout, but the value is there with everyone in the matchup priced down in all NFL DFS formats. Cooper is only of interest to me in my GPP builds.
Garrett Wilson ($5,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – Ridiculous pricing on DraftKings. Wilson is a clear $6K or more wide receiver on any given week, let alone the weeks where Mike White is playing quarterback. He’s an absolute cash game staple this week and a fine value piece for GPP lineups in a must-win game for the New York Jets.
Allen Lazard ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – With or without Christian Watson this week, Allen Lazard is in fantastic matchup against the Vikings’ pass funnel defense. The Vikings have been playing significantly more Cover-1 man defense and that’s where Rodgers loves to use the hot routes to his most trusted pass-catcher, Allen Lazard. As long as this game has good pace, Allen Lazard is one of the best pass-catching values on this slate and will be a core play for me in all formats.
Courtland Sutton ($5,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – The AETY Model LOVES this spot for Courtland Sutton but that scares me a bit as we haven’t really seen a big game from the big-bodied wideout in since Week 2, but he’s quietly gone for double-digit fantasy points in each of his past four games. The Chiefs’ secondary has been bleeding production to wideouts this season and based on the Vegas pre-match numbers, this is a perfect gamescript for Sutton and the Broncos pass catchers.

For whatever it’s worth, Sutton lead the Broncos with a 28% target share when Greg Dulcich was injured to begin the season. Now that he is on the IR, we should expect Sutton to move around the formation more and fill some of those “hybrid” routes that Dulcich was running. At 2-5% ownership and a valuable price-tag, Sutton is a GPP favorite of mine.
Drake London ($4,900 DK / $6,700 FD) – Simply too cheap for the expected volume. In cash, I’ll probably lean Allgeier over London, but if you need the savings, London is a perfect cash game play and someone I would also consider in NFL DFS GPP formats against this banged-up Arizona secondary.

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jakobi Meyers (20% ownership tag likely warrants a cash game roster spot), Romeo Doubs, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,100 DK / $8,300 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Broke the slate last week and is a fine play again this week in all formats. Over the past four weeks, Hockenson actually has six more targets than Travis Kelce. The volume is too good for the price.
Cole Kmet ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – Kmet is the only healthy pass-catcher on this Bears’ offense who poses a threat in fantasy football. He’s quietly lead this team in targets throughout the 2022 NFL season and should be heavily leaned on in the shootout at Detroit. The Lions grade 26th in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight-ends.

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, David Njoku, Tyler Conklin

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Jared Goff
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Garrett Wilson
Brian Robinson Jr.
San Francisco 49ers

UPDATE: I will unfortunately be out of town on Sunday morning and will miss the livestream so here is my NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Deshaun Watson
Isiah Pachecho
Amari Cooper
Courtland Sutton

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 15: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another fantastic week for the Win Daily family in Week 14! Our gross punt-play in GPPs of Russell Wilson paid off big time to offset the massive letdown from Dalvin Cook. Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 15 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hurts is the frontrunner for MVP (in my opinion) and playing at an elite level with both his arm and his legs. He’s the clear top-option at the quarterback position and his salary reflects that. The Bears’ are the walking wounded on both sides of the football and will offer little resistance to this Eagles offense as a whole. Hurts is an elite option for both NFL DFS cash and GPP tournaments.

Stack Options: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Cole Kmet, Naked (no run-back)
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Another week of picking on the Titans’ pass-funnel defense leads us to one of my favorite quarterbacks in all of football. Justin Herbert has averaged over 48 pass attempts per game in the last three weeks, lol! The volume and healthy wide receiving core leaves Herbert in the “nut” matchup for quarterbacks against the Titans’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). He is my overall best value/upside option for both cash games and GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett
Run-Back Options: Derrick Henry, Chig Okonkwo
Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Prescott is in another fantastic matchup this week and should be primed up to make a statement after a disaster of a game against the Houston Texans last week. The Jaguars defense is a bit-banged up and grade 30th in pass defense DVOA. My only concern with Prescott is the Cowboys’ red-zone offense is built around the running backs and are always a threat to steal the touchdown production, but that is football. The price is right with Prescott in this matchup and we may even get an additional boost with Tyron Smith expected to return from IR.

Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard
Run-Back Options: Christian Kirk
Tom Brady ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – The gross, value play of the week! The recent strategy of using these value quarterbacks to afford the top-tier studs in good game environments (Davante Adams and St. Brown in Week 13 / Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and St. Brown in Week 14) has been extremely successful for me the past two weeks and I’m going to continue to build that way. Sure, some of those studs above didn’t have smash games, but I’m getting 60+ points out of those combinations on a weekly basis that I can’t really get elsewhere.

Unlike my last two value quarterbacks for my NFL DFS GPP lineups (Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson), Tom Brady does not have a rushing floor that I used to support my rostering of Pickett and Wilson. Having said that, Tom Brady does have something no one on this slate has other than maybe Patrick Mahomes (likely not in this matchup against Houston) and Justin Herbert have… Volume.

If you’re telling me I’ll lose 20+ rushing yards when rostering Brady over the likes of Kenny Pickett or Russell Wilson, but gain 12+ pass attempts (picture below)… I think that is a fine wash, if not, advantage to Tom Brady. At $5,500 and $6,800 on FanDuel, we do not need Brady to be that good when we have that type of volume.

Yes, this offense has looked horrendous lately, but the Bengals will likely be without their best pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson and their top cover-corner, Mike Hilton. This situation would be absolute sex on the beach if Tristan Wirfs can suit up for the Bucs, but it doesn’t sound like that will be the case. I’ll take the savings and low ownership that Brady offers in hopes he can go for 18+ at home against a depleted Bengals’ defense.

Stack Options: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Julio Jones (punt-value if he plays)
Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon

The AETY Model Projects Brady for 44.9 Pass Attempts in Week 15

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – By far the safest running back on this slate going up against the Chargers’ run defense (25th in run defense DVOA). In terms of overall projected touches, Derrick Henry leads the AETY Model projections just in front of Josh Jacobs and James Conner. This is a fantastic matchup and a nice fantasy football environment in what should be an up-paced game in Los Angeles. Henry is a lock in cash games but potentially worthy of a fade in GPPs as he will likely be 40% owned… I’m not sure I have the stomach to fade him in any format.
Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Our concerns with Mixon sharing time with Samaje Perine were warranted last week as this was the first time all season Mixon fell below a 65% snap-share while healthy. Perine was not utilized much in the running game but he did get into the end-zone to upset all of the Mixon chalk fantasy players last week. NFL DFS is a game that we can really take advantage of people’s emotions and I’ll bet Mixon is sub-10% in ownership this week as everyone panics about Perine’s usage.

After re-watching that game, the Bengals left no doubt that Mixon is still their guy when they need to move the football on the ground. Yes, Perine will likely continue to have a solid role in the the passing-game work, but this offense targets the running backs in the passing game more than every team in the NFL besides the Chargers and the Buccaneers. There will be plenty to go around for Mixon.

Lastly, Vita Vea is set to miss another game this week for the Bucs and we saw how much this run defense struggles when he is away as the 49ers just rushed for over 7 yards per carry and 175 total rush yards on the Bucs last week. The Bengals grade 3rd overall in run offense DVOA making this a low-key great spot for Joe Mixon and the Bengals offense as a whole in your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go for a shootout!
Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Honestly, I was surprised to see Kamara show up as this strong of a play in the AETY Model, but without Mark Ingram, there is truly no one behind him. It was nice to also see that the prop market seems to agree this is a fantastic buy-low spot for Kamara as most sportsbooks opened Kamara’s all-purpose yard prop around 93 yards. The AETY Model projects him for 101 all-purpose yards and a significant implied probability of a touchdown. Kamara is in line for a large workload in a must-win game for the Saints against the Falcons 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Miles Sanders is underpriced for his elite upside he and this Eagles’ offense possess on a weekly basis, especially against the Bears 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Sanders has been on fire of late but we’ll always fear the threat of Jalen Hurts or one of these random backup running backs taking red-zone work away from him. Having said that, Sanders is coming off of the highest snap share he’s had since Week 5… maybe Nick Sirianni is finally unleashing Sanders. Maybe it was a fluke.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,900 DK / $7,600 FD) – A lead running back against the Houston Texans as a two-touchdown favorite. Yes, we’ll see Jerick McKinnon, but this should finally be the spot where we see Pachecho heavily utilized in the red-zone as the Chiefs kill the clock in what should be an absolute blowout.
Zonovan Knight ($5,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – In NFL DFS cash games, you can certainly go back to the well with Zonovan night on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I have no interest in that price. I’ll be fading Zonovan Knight and his 20% ownership tag in GPP contests as I really respect this Detroit Lions’ run defense lately. I tried to call their bluff last week with Dalvin Cook and I won’t make that mistake again… this Lions’ run defense is becoming a thing.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Ja’Maar Chase ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The Bucs secondary is in shambles and Jamel Dean is likely to miss this game. Ja’Maar Chase is the best wide receiver on this slate (honorable mention Davante Adams) and the AETY Model predicts this game to be a high-scoring affair.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,100 FD) – This is a fantastic matchup for Dak Prescott and an even better one for CeeDee Lamb. The Jaguars will mainly run a Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense and those are coverages CeeDee Lamb absolutely tears up and is targeted at a significantly higher clip than his already elite baseline. Jaguars’ slot-corner, Darious Williams is going to have his hands full.
Keenan Allen ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD) & Mike Williams ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – We all know Keenan Allen is back as he’s leading the NFL in routes ran over the past three weeks and he’s seen 28 targets in the past two weeks, lol. More importantly, Mike Williams looked 100% healthy and that is going to be a problem for the Titans’ secondary. Both of these wideouts being healthy is a nightmare for opposing secondaries, so we’re looking at a potential double-stack blowup. Mike Williams will tear apart the Titans’ when they run their Cover-1 man defense (they run that a lot) and Keenan Allen should find his way when they drop to Cover-3 zone. I love them both!
Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Godwin is one of four players in the NFL who have over 100 total targets over their past 10 games (Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams). The utilization is too great to ignore and now we get a cake matchup against the Bengals’ secondary who will be without their slot-corner, Mike Hilton. This is damn-near a must-win game for the Bucs and I’m expecting a shootout.
Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – If you’ve been following Win Daily for a while, you’ll know I do not play Trevor Lawrence against teams that blitz a lot and create a lot of pressure for opposing quarterbacks. However, these are games where I love to roster the Jaguars top pass catcher and slot-receiver, Christian Kirk in what should be a high-scoring football game. This is a GPP play only for your NFL DFS lineups, but the public is going to be off of Christian Kirk because of the matchup against the rookie star corner, DaRon Bland.

Yes, Bland is an absolute stud so far in his young career, but Kirk has had his way with elite slot-cornerbacks in Will Harris (DET), Bryce Callahan (LAC), and the best slot-corner in the NFL, L’Jarius Sneed (KC) where Christian Kirk turned in his best fantasy performance of the year (34.5 DraftKings points). The theme here is that Christian Kirk gets elite usage when he faces teams that blitz a lot, especially when those mix in a lot of Cover-2 zone as well.
Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – Another week of mis-priced Garrett Wilson (on DraftKings). Lock him up in your NFL DFS cash game lineups and he offers a significant floor/ceiling combination to consider in GPP builds. Keep in mind, he will be one of the highest owned receivers on the slate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – I prefer exposure to the running game, but at sub-10% ownership, Smith-Schuster is an excellent pivot away from Wilson chalk. This is a matchup JuJu Smith-Schuster should destroy against Houston’s defense that runs nothing but Cover-2 and some Cover-3. They also refuse to blitz the quarterback. All three situations lead to an increased target-share for the Chiefs’ top wideout.
Chris Moore ($4,200 DK / $6,000 FD) – Looks like the public is going to follow the Week 14 production for Chris Moore. It should be a nice gamescript here for the floor in NFL DFS cash games but I have zero interest in GPP builds.
Elijah Moore ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – All signs point to Corey Davis being OUT this week so we’ll simply use Elijah Moore as cheap exposure to a strong fantasy environment against the Lions’ secondary. Moore has 16 targets in the past two games and is 6th in the NFL in routes ran during that timeframe. We cannot say that about or anything close to that about any other wide receiver in that $3K price range. He’d be the Discord Diamond, but he won’t be 1% owned… and as of now, I do not have a 1% diamond this week.

*Moving off of Elijah Moore with Zach Wilson.

Discord Diamond is officially: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Discord for more details).

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Michael Gallup, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
Dalton Schultz ($4,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – The second top-option on this slate for the tight-end position but at a significant discount from Kelce. I’ve wrote enough about the Cowboys’ passing attack but I love this spot for Schultz as well, as he destroys Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone, just like CeeDee Lamb. Do I hear a double stack?
Greg Dulcich ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – I won’t get into all of the statistics from Brett Rypien’s sample size in the NFL, but I will summarize it: He abuses the tight-end! A week after Dulcich was a bit of a let-down and 35% owned in all formats, NO ONE will go back to him this week solely because of said let-down and no Russell Wilson. What happened to everyone picking on Arizona against tight-ends? They still rate 30th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and now we have a quarterback who will target him more than Wilson did. I don’t get why anyone would just cross his name off their tight-end list.
Chig Okonkwo ($3,100 DK / $5,100 FD) – It is absolutely disgusting to see all of the public now on the guy we invented weeks ago on the livestream, but as discussed last week, if Okonkwo had a big day against the Jaguars (we wished that he didn’t), he would be the stone chalk in Week 15 against the Chargers. Play him in cash. In GPPs, I guess it’s fine as long as Treylon Burks is out, but chalk, punt tight-ends never seem to end well. On the bright side, he is a stud and Derwin James is OUT for the Chargers.

Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Derrick Henry
Zonovan Knight
Justin Herbert
Chris Godwin
Denver Broncos

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