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NFL Sports Betting – Playoff Bets for Championship Round Weekend

The four best teams in the NFL remain, and only two will survive after today’s games in the Conference Championship round. We’re coming off a heater, going 3-0-1 last week with game bets. The Commanders and Bills both came through as outright winners despite being underdogs. And the two finalists from 2023, the Eagles and Chiefs, came through as home favorites to potentially setup a rematch from a classic Super Bowl two years ago.

Looking at today we have been gifted with an inter-division matchup meaning teams will see each other for a 3rd time this season in Washington and Philadelphia. Out west, we get another classic matchup of Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. Those two have met three times in the playoffs with the Chiefs winning each. But the Bills have gotten closer each time, losing by 14, by 6 and by 3 points last year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-4-1 game bets / 6-4 prop bets)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3:00 PM EST)

I’ll start this by saying I am an Eagles fan. Which you probably all know by now. So I’m trying my best to pick with my head not my heart here.

With that being said, I respect the heck out of Washington (much like LA last week). They pose so many challenges especially at the QB position. Jayden Daniels is putting up the best rookie season for a QB that we’ve ever seen. And they’re on a heater right now, winning seven straight coming into today’s NFC Championship Game. On defense, while the Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA, they created five turnovers last week in Detroit. They are opportunistic and aggressive, often creating havoc in the backfield at the expense of coverage in the secondary. Dan Quinn knows he’s undersized and undermanned on the D-Line, but he has still found ways to create pressure and impact games defensively.

However, the Commanders magic must run out at some point. The only position on the field today that they can claim to be better is the QB. And while that’s the most important of all positions, football is a team sport. Jalen Hurts had a great week of practice, and his mobility looked good. As long as he’s a threat in the run game, Washington will have fits trying to stop this Eagles offense.

In their last meeting, the Eagles scored touchdowns on three of their first four drives. And several of those were with backup QB Kenny Pickett. It wasn’t until the Commanders stacked the box that they limited the Eagles running game and held them to four FG’s the rest of the way. Pickett wasn’t a threat to run or throw deep. Hurts is both of those. His health and ability to play his game is everything today for the Eagles offense.

Then there’s the fact that Washington is playing their 4th straight road games. Teams in this situation since 2000, with a fourth straight road game in the playoffs, are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Washington is also missing two key players in OL Sam Cosmi and DT Daron Payne. And I haven’t even mentioned the Eagles defense yet. They are ranked #1 overall and #2 in points allowed. This unit has not allowed more than 23 points in a game at home all season. And they allow just 16 points per game at the Linc.

If the Eagles can’t contain Daniels and Hurts can’t be a factor in the running game, then yes, the Commanders can and likely will pull this one out. But the talent advantage all over the field tells me those will be two very tall mountains to climb for Washington. The Eagles will wear down the Commanders and we’ll see Saquon break one late to seal the game. I think it’ll play much like their matchup back in Week 11 when the Eagles won 26-18. The Commanders had the lead in that game heading into the 4th Q. But the Eagles physicality broke through as they recorded three rushing TD’s in the final frame enroute to the victory.

PROP BETS:

TBD

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS (6:30 PM EST)

This game should be fantastic similar to last week’s great battle between Buffalo and Baltimore. There are so many storylines including the Chiefs quest to three-peat and the Bills trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years.

The Chiefs are 16-2 but have shown some vulnerability all season, winning an unprecedented 11 one-score games. In fact, Kansas City was 11-0 in games decided by 8 points or less. The mastery of Mahomes and Reid factored into that mark, but so did some luck like having Isaiah Likely’s toe just step out of bounds or seeing a chip shot FG by Denver get blocked as time expired. The fact is, this team knows how to win. And that’s even more so true in Kansas City where they are 10-0 this season.

The Bills on the other hand are the only team to beat Mahomes this season as the Chiefs only other loss came in Week 18 with Carson Wentz under center. Josh Allen is 4-4 in his career against the Chiefs and has had success in all those starts. The problem is he’s 0-3 in the playoffs, including 0-2 in Arrowhead.

As much as I think the Bills have the recipe and formula to beat the Chiefs. I tend to ask myself, and everyone else this. Who do you think wins if this is a close game? We’ve already laid out the remarkable number the Chiefs have in those situations. The Bills are just 5-3 in one-score games this year. It would take a significant call or some stroke of luck for the Bills to win this one. Which is something we can root for but I can’t let my wallet bet on. Until someone proves they can do it, I’m backing the Chiefs to march onto New Orleans for the Super Bowl.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

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2 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Conference Championship Games

Joe DiCarlo 2 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Then there were four. The most highly anticipated weekend in football has arrived next to the Super Bowl as the winners from each game will be headed to New Orleans. This weekend will also be the last multi-game slate of the season for DFS, so get your fill because the next ones will not be here until September. The best of the AFC and NFC collide on Sunday afternoon, so let’s get this breakdown started.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Saturday Afternoon.

Sunday Slate 1/26/25

Commanders @ Eagles (-5.5) (O/U 47.5)

We start in Philadelphia as one of these NFC East will decide who will represent the Conference in Super Bowl LIX as the Commanders battle the Eagles. The fairytale story continues for Washington led by rookie Jayden Daniels as they sit one win away from competing on the highest level in the NFL. But not if Nick Fangio and the Eagles’ defensive staff have anything to say about it, as he directs one of the most intense defenses in the league. You are the one to decide who comes out on top and start your lineups with guys from that team.

The day can very well belong to Washington although sitting as five-and-a-half-point underdogs on the road, as Jayden Daniels continues to be an enigma for defensive coordinators throughout the playoffs. I would not be shocked if the rookie pulled off another upset this season, as he leads his team into the endzone while not turning the ball over simultaneously. All of his teammates are fair game for lineups, including the running back position as Ekeler will see hurry-up and pass-catching third-down opportunities while Brian Robinson will get goalline touches. Tight end Zach Ertz will return to Philadelphia one more time and could be leaned on heavily by the rookie quarterback, especially if the Eagles decide to throw a spy on Daniels, Ertz may see passes over the top of the line of scrimmage. The only Commander I’m not feeling is Olamide Zaccheaus, the once-red-hot receiver was a solid option for Daniels. But after suffering a knee injury, the breakout of Dyami Brown, and the return of Jamison Crowder to the field, Zaccheaus will be off my radar.

The writing is on the wall in Philly, win at home and you’re back in the big dance for the second time in three years. The team has ridden the back of Saquon Barkley throughout the regular and post-season, so why would they look elsewhere to move the football? Barkley has rushed for over 2,000 yards on the year while adding over 300 yards in two playoff games and two touchdowns. I believe Sirianni will double down with their top free-agent pickup for one more round, as Washington has been gashed by opposing running backs all year allowing close to 140 yards rushing per game with 18 touchdowns. Saquon stacked with the Eagles’ defense will be a chalky move in DFS this week, but it will be good chalk to eat. Now if you can nail which receiver will hit when Hurts drops back to pass, that will move your lineups up the leaderboards. Their alpha AJ Brown has been very quiet this postseason, catching only three of ten targets for 24 yards, which is gross. His game logs will drive down his ownership in this matchup, so if you want an edge in GPPs, take a shot at the Eagles’ best option to throw to, and it will catapult your lineups if he does wake up from his slumber.

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dyami Brown, Dallas Goedert, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Eagles DST

Milly-Maker Punts: Jamison Crowder, John Bates

Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5) (U/O 47.5)

The nightcap will end up in Kansas City as the Bills will tackle the Chiefs for the third time in four post-season meetings and try to get over that hump to land their first Super Bowl visit in over thirty years. Buffalo owns the momentum coming into Sunday after defeating the Ravens, but Kansas City is the reigning champs. They’ve shown signs of weakness this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but somehow Pat Mahomes and the defense get the job done when the fourth quarter hits triple zero.

Buffalo has been here before in recent years, each time coming up short on the road in Kansas City. Can this be the year we finally see Josh Allen pull away from the dark clouds at Arrow Head? Many feel the Bills have a legit shot this year because of their recent success during the regular season in Kansas City and their opponents’ inability to move the football consistently.

I don’t have to hype up Allen for DFS, we already know to use him. The remaining Bills to decide are what we are here for. For the Bills to win, they’ll need to run on KC, so I love James Cook. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis have also been in the mix, but are much more of a gamble in lineups as the gamescript needs to favor them heavily. All eyes will be on Allen to take off with the football, not him, so he’ll see fewer defenders.

Khalil Shakir has been Allen’s rock to lean on for passing plays, he leads the team in targets with 113 through the playoffs. Everyone else, well they’re dart throws, as by their very affordable prices under $4K on DraftKings. I’m leaning toward Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox also since the Chiefs’ DVOA is 29th for the tight end position. Love Keon Coleman again this week, he was disappointed against Baltimore, but I smell another 2022 Gabe Davis type of performance from him up the pike.

I know the Chiefs barely squeaked by the Texans in the previous round, but you can never rule out the defending champs when there is a potential to make history by winning three consecutive Super Bowls. This is the second year in a row where we’ve seen them flip a switch in the playoffs to beat their opponents, and that’s built on experience and phenomenal coaching. The field will be all over Travis Kelce in tournaments, however not many will have the cojones to pair him with a $6K Patrick Mahomes. KC failed to convert plenty of third downs last week, which affected Mahomes’ volume, as well as all the penalty flags thrown at Houston…wink, wink.

So if you feel the Bills will put up some points this week then Mahomes will have a negative gamescript and be forced to put the ball in the air. Besides Kelce as far as targets, it will be whoever gets open for Mahomes. Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown have been quiet, but they’ll be on the field the most as usual. However, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster did see 67% of the snaps against Houston, so he could also be a factor in this game.

The Chiefs’ backfield has also been dicey, but fairly priced for DFS. Kareem Hunt has been their new goalline back, so if I had to take my pick it would be him, especially after he hit paydirt last weekend. Andy Reid is a hot-hand kind of guy when it comes to carries, so if Isiah Pacheco returns to his usual form this week, he will put Kareem Hunt to bed. We’ve seen glimpses of Samaje Perine on third downs for Kansas City too, but he’s an extremely risky guy.

GPP: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, James Cook, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Keon Coleman, Isiah Pacheco

Milly-Maker Punts: Dawson Knox, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Samaje Perine, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Conference Championship Games! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Sports Betting – Playoff Bets for Divisional Round Weekend

Dave Gloeckner 2 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

The best weekend of football is here as we have the eight remaining teams left in the NFL Playoffs. The stories are endless as we have just two QB’s who have won a Super Bowl. But of the remaining six, there are MVP’s, ROY’s and loads of talent. Which shows each team has a chance to get to New Orleans and take claim to the throne as the NFL’s best team. The Wild Card Weekend was a roller coaster for us. The game bets went 2-4 but the prop bets went 4-2. The only reason I ended up on the plus side was due to a 5x bet on the Eagles. Some tailgate waters helped fuel that bravado. But we do need a better showing in the game bets this week to push us onto the plus side of the equation.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-4 game bets / 4-2 prop bets)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

The numbers are astounding for the Chiefs during the Divisional Round in the Patrick Mahomes era. They are 6-0 in this weekend’s games under their star QB. Mahomes has averaged over 300 yards per game and thrown for 16 TD’s to 0 INT’s in this round. And they are looking for their 7th straight trip to the conference championship which trails just the Patriots who went to eight straight during the 2011-2018 stretch. On the other side, Houston is 0-5 in Divisional Round games as they have never advanced to a Championship game. Additionally, they are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. Both marks make them standalone as they are the only team to never make a Championship game and never win a road playoff game.

And while I like to fade the public and zag when others zig, I saw how the Chiefs finished the regular season and know what type of animal they are in the playoffs. It’s almost like they slow-played their hand for 14 weeks and then started ramping up for the real season. Throwing out the Week 18 game when they rested the starters, the Chiefs ended the regular season 3-0 and covering all three of those games against the spread. They won those games by a collective score of 77 to 36.

And then there’s the Texans. I can’t erase the sights of CJ Stroud trying to throw the game away against LA only to see his defense bail them out. Houston won because they kept LA out of the endzone early (when the game was on the hinges) and then made them one-dimensional which created the turnover opportunities. They won’t get four INT’s today and they likely won’t get a defensive touchdown. For them to win, CJ Stroud will have to be great. And I’m just not sure he can be great enough to do that. The Texans were ranked 26th in offensive DVOA and was the second lowest scoring team of any playoff team at 21.9 ppg.

PROP BETS:

Nico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). This is a big number. But if you believe in my game script, the Texans will be down early and often. Setting up lots of throwing opportunities for Stroud to Collins. KC is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s and are top 12 against all other pass catchers.

Xavier Worthy over 4.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). In Worthy’s last three games, he’s ran for 50 yards on 8 carries. He’s had multiple carries in all three of those games. At this line, we likely just need one carry to get this number. But if we get two, he’s going well over this line. In the first matchup, Houston played 40% Cover 1. Something close to that will give HC Andy Reid the looks he likes to setup a jet sweep and block the outside zone coverage.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +9 at DETROIT LIONS

I love the Lions and still project them to be the NFC Champions this year. But this Washington Commanders team is playing with house money while Detroit has the most amount of pressure they’ve ever had. That, in and of itself, is a daunting task for a team that’s not used to playing the favorites role.

And that’s really part of this story. The Commanders played aggressive last weekend. Like they had nothing to lose. HC Dan Quinn went for it on 4th down on five occasions, converting three of those. And based on his aggression, the Commanders never punted last week. They either scored, or turned it over on downs, in their seven possessions. I expect more of the same from Quinn this week as he knows he has to score points to keep up with Detroit.

For the Lions, they welcome back David Montgomery which is a great sign. He is one of the leaders on their team and will surely give them a boost. But before last season, the Lions had not won a playoff game since 1991. In fact, they have just three playoff wins in franchise history in the modern Super Bowl era. While that’s not saying they can’t win today, it just highlights the extreme pressure this team has as it is the best one in franchise history.

I expect the Commanders to hang around long enough to give the Lions a scare. Tampa did so last year in this round as they were tied with Detroit heading into the 4th quarter.

PROP BETS:

Brian Robinson over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Commanders RB’s had 7 receptions last week against Tampa. And Robinson led the way with four. However, this week, Austin Ekeler has a reception prop of double Robinson’s. I’ll take the back that sees the field more to get over his reception prop. Detroit is 29th in the league in DVOA against RB’s in the passing game. If they decide to play the blitz heavy defense they did against Minnesota, Daniels will look for the quick check downs and not fall to the fate that Sam Darnold did.

Jameson Williams over 55.5 yards (-110 DK). The Lions can attack the Commanders defense any way they want. That’s primarily because of all the weapons at Detroit’s disposal. But it’s also because Washington is not very good defensively, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. With Lattimore back, I expect the Lions to exploit CB Mike Sainristill who allows 11.8 yards per catch (91st among DB’s) and has 13 missed tackles (ranked 205th among DB’s).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs LA RAMS

The Eagles were significantly better than the Rams in their first outing in LA. Philadelphia won that game by a score of 37-20. They dominated the game offensively and defensively. And despite what you saw from LA last week, they are not that much different than the first outing. The defensive pressure has improved but at the sake of the offense, which scored 20 or less in three of it’s last four games.

Then there’s the eye test. LA looked great against Minnesota. But we just saw the team that allowed just 9 points to the Vikings get completely throttled by the Commanders on Saturday. Yes, the Vikings were absolute frauds. While the Rams dominated the Vikings, that game showed more about Minnesota than it did LA.

The Eagles are better in every phase. Barring a crazy weather game or uncommon turnovers, the Eagles should dominate this game upfront which is where playoff games are won. While the weather is calling for snow, that should actually favor Philly as the offensive line should be able to plow over the smaller Rams defensive front opening up big holes for #26.

PROP BETS: TBD

BUFFALO BILLS +1.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is the hardest game of the weekend to handicap. These are two of the top teams in the NFL, and one will have to plan for Cancun weeks ahead of their preferred time. According to DVOA, these are the top 2 offenses in the NFL with Baltimore having a slight edge. Defensively, both teams rank in the top 11. Looking at the standings, both teams finished with a +157 point differential, which was the highest in the AFC and 3rd most in the NFL.

But in this matchup of even teams, I’m riding with the home boys in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a few things that I believe are motivational edges. First, they were embarrassed by the Ravens in prime time back in Week 4 losing by 25 points. Derrick Henry ran wild, accumulating 199 rushing yards on just 24 carries. But one thing to note is the Bills were without three starting defensive players in that game. Then there’s the weather factor as there will be snow, and it will be cold. The forecast is calling for single digit temperatures which Buffalo is well equipped for. The last playoff game that Baltimore played in Buffalo was also cold, and the Ravens scored just 3 points as they couldn’t adjust to the frigidness of western NY.

I also factor in Buffalo is 9-0 at home this year, with only 3 of those games being one score affairs. This team is built for this weather and they embrace their home field advantage. Lastly, the Ravens look like they will be without WR Zay Flowers. The lack of Flowers speed can allow Buffalo to creep the safeties up and help scheme against the powerful Ravens running game.

Baltimore is a great team but I’ve seen a few scattered results from them where they get away from who they are. I can easily see them winning but also realize they have some skeletons in their playoff closet too which could come creeping out again today.

PROP BETS: TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Divisional Round

Joe DiCarlo 2 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

And then there were eight. The Wild Card Round is in the books as we’re left with four games of some serious football to play, along with some cash to be made in GPPs. Whether you are playing all four games together, Saturday/Sunday only, or Showdown Slates, keep it locked here for your player pools and who to fade this weekend. Get different, but not cute. Only draft players will be on the field. Remember, It’s win or go home for the league so everybody will be rolling out their top players. However, I’ll also be throwing in my Milly Maker Punts for larger field tournaments that I like in each contest that will provide tremendous leverage from the field if they hit paydirt (Washington’s Dyami Brown was last week’s gem).

Saturday Slate 1/18/25

Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5) (U/O 41.5)

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs kick off the weekend by welcoming the fourth-seed Texans into Arrowhead Stadium. Vegas opened up with a large spread and a low total in this one, as they see the Chiefs’ defense putting CJ Stroud in a vise while the Texans will see a plethora of talent to face at the quarterback and receiver positions.

Get in on the biggest bargain of the slate by stacking up on Mahomes with his loaded receiver core and cash some tickets this weekend. It is downright disrespectful to see DraftKings put Mahomes at just $6K along with Kelce at $5K. We all saw the Chiefs turn up the volume come playoff time last season on their way to winning a second-straight SuperBowl, why not run it back? Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown are also too cheap. Although the Texans’ DVOA ranks 6th in the league to opposing receivers and quarterbacks, the amount of talent this defense will face will be the most they’ve seen in one game this season. I am not in on the Pacheco/Hunt experience of the Chiefs’ backfield, due to each eating from their plates as well as emphasizing paying up for running back for the slate.

Houston shocked the market with their defense shutting down Justin Herbert and the Chargers picking him off four times and awakening Joe Mixon from his fantasy slumber as he put together a decent 20-point performance in the opening round. Nico Collins also returned to greatness catching seven of eight targets for 122 yards and a score, but the well-rested Stevie Spag’s defense may throw some shade on the near 9-point road dogs. Kansas City took away Mixon and Collins in their first meeting this year back in Week 16 keeping them out of the endzone and far from reaching 100 yards rushing and receiving. If you’re looking for action in Houston, consider Dalton Schultz and John Metchie who are very low-priced and should not receive too much attention while on the field as the focus will surround Collins and Mixon.

GPP: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Chiefs DST

Milly-Maker Punts: Justin Watson, Noah Gray, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Hutchinson, Irv Smith, Teegan Quitoriano

Commanders @ Lions (-9.5) (U/O 55.5)

Saturday Night features the highest total to hit the slate as the Cinderella Washington Commanders head into the Lion’s Den in Detroit to battle the best in the NFC. Can lightning strike twice for Jayden Daniels and Washington or will the team finally fall back down to Earth on the road against the most feared offenses in football? We’ll soon see the results and will highly be using this game heavily in our multi-game DFS contests.

Detroit has put it on tape this year as the top contender in the conference, and they do it by lighting up the scoreboard easily. They’ll also get David Montgomery back on the field ready for the playoffs after suffering a knee injury, but he shouldn’t affect Jahmyr Gibbs’ value on the slate after the monster games he’s had down the stretch as the bell cow. We’ll see him find the endzone in goal-line situations as it’s Gibbs’ job to lose as the Lions’ most versatile weapon on the field. Washington yields nearly 140 yards on the ground to their opponents. If looking to get different in contests, stack Goff with pass catchers like Amon-Ra, La Porta, Jameson Williams, and Tim Patrick as the field should swarm to own Gibbs.

The Commanders defied the odds sending Baker packing at home in the Wild Card, but the buck should stop in Detroit. That’s not to say Washington won’t score either as Jayden Daniels should land the Rookie OPOTY after his season and playoff run. His 104 QBR while being second in the league in rushing at the position in touchdowns (6) and yards per game (58) will place him in plenty of lineups facing a negative gamescript on the road. All of his receivers are viable especially Dyami Brown after his five receptions for 89 yards and a score against Tampa. Pivoting to Austin Ekeler or Brian Robinson at running back should separate you in many contests as your opponents in GPPs will stack the passing game for Washington.

GPP: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam La Porta, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson

Milly-Maker Punts: Tim Patrick, Brock Wright, Jamison Crowder, John Bates

Sunday Slate 1/19/25

Rams @ Eagles (-6) (U/O 47.5)

Sunday kicks off in Philadelphia for the second half of the Divisional Round as the Rams tackle the Eagles. LA’s disastrous fires around the city instilled a shot in the arm for the Rams this past Sunday in their decisive win against Minnesota, and they’ll aim to carry that momentum into Lincoln Financial Stadium. The Eagles also came out on top with a victory against the Packers, but it wasn’t pretty, as they leaned more on their defense which led to Jordan Love’s three picks. So far this week Sunday has some snow in the forecast with temperatures in the twenties, which may affect some of the scoring in this game.

The Rams’ defense also came up big this past Sunday, forcing Darnold to take nine sacks with two turnovers. The Eagles looked stale on offense, with Jalen Hurts still not 100 percent after suffering a concussion back in Week 16. I’m taking a shot on a cheaper defense of LA ($2,700) who have shown up strong in two of their last three games (23,14 FPTS.). Puka Nacua will face a tough matchup in Philly (4th in DVOA to opposing WRs), but he’s an elite talent and always a play in DFS. However, I prefer leaning toward running back Kyren Williams. His volume is through the roof in the backfield and heavily involved in the passing game. After watching Josh Jacobs breakthrough that Eagles’ front line last weekend, head coach Sean McVay could be rewinding some tape this week to get Williams into the same routine.

Philadelphia also utilized their defense to advance further into the playoffs and could very well need them to show up again to keep their championship hopes alive. LA came out guns blazing and could have the same hot start on Sunday unless the Eagles make some adjustments. Now LA is a dome team that is used to playing in a comfortable environment. Since they’ll be playing in 20-degree weather with real-feel temps at 15 and a chance of snow, I’ll also be using the Eagles’ defense for DFS.

Their offense was kicking rocks passed the Packers, literally from the leg of Jake Elliot’s five field goals on Sunday. To pay up for guys like Saquon and AJ Brown, who only had one catch in the Wild Card, would be pretty ballsy for DFS. However, I am interested in Jalen Hurts at just $6,800 on DraftKings. He showed us he’s still willing to use his legs at six yards per carry last week, and if the Rams are going to blitz as much as they did in Minnesota, we should see a strong performance from him. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are still a bargain and would make a nice underpriced stack alongside Hurts.

GPP: Jalen Hurts, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Rams DST, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Eagles DST, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Tyler Higbee, Rams DST

Milly-Maker Punts: Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, Jahan Dotson

Update: Snow in the forecast in Philadelphia

Ravens @ Bills (1.5) (U/O 51.5)

We wrap up the weekend with the most anticipated matchups on the slate as the Ravens head up north to battle the Bills. In their first meeting back in Week 4, Baltimore manhandled Buffalo 35-10 at home, however, the Bills will host this rematch in the playoffs. This game should see fireworks, with a total over 50 and a tight 1-point spread, and could be another snow game on the slate, Plug away on both sides of this contest for your lineups.

I will be jamming Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry into my builds this weekend, regardless of their salaries. The duo has combined for well over 3,000 yards rushing with 20 touchdowns and has been impossible to stop as the number-one-ranked rushing offense in the game. With all the success in the run game, Lamar’s pass attempts rarely hit over twenty, but when they decide to throw the ball downfield, it’s been all Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Rashod Bateman. Now that Zay Flowers has been labeled doubtful to play and more of a high-pace game, expect to see more of Justice Hill in the backfield too, especially if Buffalo puts them in a hole early.

It’s do-or-die again for one more year in Buffalo, and the weight will once again rest on Josh Allen’s shoulders. Allen is a lock at quarterback obviously, but to stack him with any of his receivers other than Khalil Shakir would be pretty risky because of his generosity with the football. He’s hit 13 different receivers this year for touchdowns, but Shakir leads the team in targets with 106 this season. Baltimore’s secondary will be put to the test, still at a DVOA of 27th to opposing receivers and quarterbacks, feel free to take a shot on anyone else lined up alongside Allen. Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Dalton Kincaid are some of the names who regularly see the field.

How about James Cook, is he a good play? He’ll be up against the top-run defense so it will be a leverage move to draft him in this matchup as he’ll see very little ownership. If this game does stay close, we can expect to see more of Cook and less of Ty Johnson, who has been culturing touchdown passes from the latter. If Allen exposes Baltimore’s weakness in its secondary, Cook may see fewer opponents in the box and produce a solid stat line.

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, James Cook, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper

Milly-Maker Punts: Isaiah Likely, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Justice Hill, Mack Hollins, Ty Johnson, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Divisional Round! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Divisional Round Weekend Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 2 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the divisional round of the NFL postseason. Both games should be competitive as the Texans visit the defending champions Chiefs and Washington takes a trip to Detroit to play the NFC’s top seed Lions.

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Jayden Daniels ($7000DK, $8200FD)

Starting with the favorite for the OROY and the highest-priced QB on the slate, Daniels is in a good spot against the Lions on Saturday. The Lions allowed the fifth most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (4404) and allowed the fourth most rushing yards (454). This game has the highest total (55.5) of all four divisional round games and for good reason as both offenses are great. I’m following the books here and backing Daniels as he will need to pass and run to keep Washington in the game and have an opportunity to upset the Lions.

Who to pair him with: Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown

Patrick Mahomes ($6000DK, $7700FD)

Although Mahomes didn’t have the best regular season, it is in the playoffs where he usually shines the brightest. Houston was good against quarterbacks in the regular season allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards (3749) and had the second-most interceptions with 19. While they have been good against quarterbacks, one of their worst games this season came against Mahomes last month where he threw for 260 yards and a touchdown while finishing with 23.7 DK. I like the price for Mahomes in this spot.

Who to pair him with: Xavier Worthy. Travis Kelce

Honorable Mentions: Jared Goff.

The RBs:

David Montgomery ($5700DK, $4000FD)

Not much to say here, Montgomery is one of the best running backs in the NFL and is coming into this game with no injury designation which means he should be healthy enough to see his usual workload. If he does get his usual workload (13.2 attempts) then he should be in for a big game as the Commanders are not good against the run. They have 18 running backs this season to reach the 50-yard mark, with 10 of those reaching 75+ and half reaching 100+. Montgomery will split time with Gibbs, who is also in play, but the Lions have proved that both can get enough touches to pay off.

Isiah Pacheco ($5500DK, $5800FD)

Staying in the midrange in salary for running backs, Pacheco is in a good spot against the Texans. Pacheco didn’t finish the regular season as strong as he would have hoped coming back from injury. In his five games since returning from injury he has 49 carries for 175 yards (3.5/carry). The Chiefs decided to let Hunt continue to see a significant workload, only finishing with 4 fewer carries than Pacheco in the five games they played together. But with three weeks of rest (KC rested their starters in Week 18) I think Pacheco should be back to the form he had before the injury.

Honorable Mentions: Jahmyr Gibbs. Joe Mixon. Brian Robinson Jr. Austin Ekeler.

The WRs:

Terry McLaurin ($6300DK, $7400FD)

As I mentioned above the Lions are allowing the fifth most passing yards to quarterbacks, 3147 of the yards they have allowed are from wide receivers which is the most allowed. McLaurin being the Commander’s top target should be able to take advantage of the secondary. He should see a healthy amount of Terrion Arnold who has been an ok corner this season allowing .26 FPRR and 1.26YPRR, McLaurin leads Washington in both categories with .48 FPRR and 2 YPRR. McLaurin has a 37.1% target share among Commander wide receivers and has accounted for 42.1% of the receiving yards for Washington receivers.

Xavier Worthy ($5200DK, $6400FD)

Worthy has felt like a steal for the Chiefs with the 28th pick. He has been involved in the passing and run game, having a carry in 12 games this season. He was successful in his first matchup against the Texans, finishing the game with 65 receiving yards, and a touchdown, and added 10 yards in the run game. He will be moved a lot during the game so while it looks like on paper he will see Stingley Jr who is the Texan’s best corner, he should have plenty of opportunities to have success.

Honorable Mentions: Nico Collins. Amon-Ra St.Brown. Jameson Williams. DeAndre Hopkins.

Value WRs: Olamide Zacchaeus. Dyami Brown. John Metchie. Justin Watson. Tim Patrick.

The TEs

Dalton Schultz ($3300DK, $5300FD)

It’s hard to pass on Schultz in this spot. He is priced as the lowest starting tight end but he is in the best spot out of the four. The Chiefs are allowing the most receiving yards to tight ends (1191) and are giving up the fourth most fantasy points. In the first meeting, Schultz had five receptions for 45 yards and a score. Schultz’s 45 receiving yards was the fifth-fewest they have allowed in a game as they have allowed 50+ yards in more than half of their games. At this price, I am locking in Schultz as my tight end in every lineup.

Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce. Sam LaPorta. Zach Ertz. Noah Gray. *I think all tight ends are in play for Saturday but Schultz would be my favorite.*

Drago’s Best Bets:

Washington Commanders +8.5 (-108) vs Detroit Lions
David Montgomery Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)/ 50+ (+105)/ 60+ (+155)
Kansas City Chiefs Alt Spread -6.5 (-161) vs Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)/ 50+ (+150)

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at h ttps://windailysports.com/nfl/

2 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Sports Betting – Playoff Bets for Wild Card Weekend

Dave Gloeckner 3 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

The day is finally here as 14 teams enter the NFL Playoffs with all the same goal, lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy come the night of February 9th. And what better way to celebrate the playoffs as a fan then have a little extra skin in the game. Which is exactly why we’re here. After a “mid” regular season where I finished 48-47-1, we’re looking to the end the year with a bang (similar to how we’ve nailed the College Football Bowl Season). So join us on this upcoming journey and tail, fade or pass. But either way get ready for the ride because these next 5 weeks will bring us some of the best football we’ve seen all year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS WILD CARD WEEKEND (2024 SEASON RECORD: 48-47-1, game bets only)

LA CHARGERS -2.5 at HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

If you’ve read my articles this year, then you understand that I like to fade heavy public interest in games. Typically, that is a winning strategy but this year it didn’t hit as often as we’d expect. So I adjusted late and bought into some of the games where there was heavy square money. The point of all that is what we’re seeing today in the Chargers and Texans game. Los Angeles is being picked to win by every NFL analyst whether on TV or the internet. And the window in Vegas is backing that as 72% of the bets and 71% of the money is on Jim Harbaugh’s team. And honestly, this is usually a zig when they zag spot for me, but today it’s not.

I just simply can’t ignore the Texans inefficiencies for most, if not all, of the season. Houston is the worst offensive team in the playoffs, and it’s not close. They rank 25th overall in offensive DVOA which puts them in the likes of New Orleans, Dallas, New York Giants and the Chicago Bears. Most of those teams will be picking in the top 10 of the draft and weren’t close to playoff football. From a pure statistics perspective, it wasn’t great either as the Texans racked up just 319.7 total yards per game which is good for 13th out of the 14 playoff teams (Pittsburgh only team worse at 319.4). Same goes with points scored as they averaged 21.9 points per game, also ranking 13th of the 14 playoff teams (LA Rams came in at 21.6 ppg).

A lot of the offensive issues were due to the injuries and an inconsistent QB and offensive line. Upfront, Houston ranked 19th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking. Because of that, the Texans allowed 54 sacks which was the third most in the NFL. At the helm, QB CJ Stroud took a step backwards in his sophomore season as he threw just 20 TD’s with 12 INT’s. The latter stat was tied for the 4th most in the NFL. The more concerning part is that Stroud was ranked 25th in QBR, with three rookie QB’s ranked higher as well as his fellow sophomore Bryce Young. A lot of that was due to teams bringing pressure against Stroud. The Texans were blitzed the 3rd most in the league but gave up the highest pressure rate at 27.2%.

While this has been all about the Texans, the point here is the Chargers have a much better offense than Houston. LA ended up ranking 13th in offensive DVOA and 11th in points per game. Their QB, Justin Herbert, threw just three interceptions all season as the Chargers turned the ball over just 9 times this season, 2nd fewest in the league. While Houston’s defense will keep them in the game, I trust Herbert and his corps of receivers much more. I think this is the day we see the Chargers actually win a close playoff game and set their sights to next week and a possible matchup with KC.

NOTE: I’m buying a half point here which brings the juice up to -125. Most books have not moved off the key number of 3.

PROP BETS: John Metchie III over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). The Chargers rank 30th in DVOA against WR2’s. By default, Metchie has been playing WR2 for Houston.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

We’re back to our regularly scheduled program. I’m backing a team the public has totally dismissed in the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ve talked prior about how good of an underdog Mike Tomlin is. In fact, he’s the second-best coach ATS (active) as an underdog hitting at a 64% rate with a 62-35-3 record. And if we follow this rivalry close enough, we know these games are always tight as nine of the last ten have been one score games (the last game is the only one that wasn’t but a Russel Wilson fumble at goal line was likely the reason why).

Then there’s the Lamar in the playoffs factor as the Ravens QB is just 2-4 in the playoffs. This includes a 1-3 record at home. None of those games were with the sledgehammer he has in the backfield this year in Derrick Henry. But there’s still a little playoff uncertainty from the two-time NFL MVP.

In the end, this is a divisional game that is between two hated rivals. No rah-rah speeches are needed and they have enough motivation just seeing the other teams jersey to be ready for this one. There is split action at the windows, with 49% of the money on Pittsburgh and 51% on Baltimore. There are some major trends that do point to Baltimore (home favorites of 9+ in Wild Card Round are 10-1 ATS in last 20 years) but I’m sticking with my intuition here and banking on the Steelers to have enough offense to make this one scary for the Ravens.

PROP BETS: George Pickens over 56.5 yards (-110 DK). The Ravens allow the most yards to WR1 on the season. And it’s by a wide margin. Pickens has been trash but he’s also into the trash talk. Look for the Steelers to get him going early and let the talking fuel his game. Pittsburgh’s only chance to win is to get Pickens involved early and often.

BUFFALO BILLS -9 vs DENVER BRONCOS

This game is very intriguing on many levels. First off, I saw a pre-draft interview recently where HC Sean Payton said Bo Nix had similar qualities to the person he’s opposing today, Josh Allen. It was high praise considering Josh Allen is one of the best players in the NFL. But Nix hasn’t disappointed his coach’s claims as he had a stellar rookie season throwing for over 3700 yards and registering 29 passing TD’s to just 12 interceptions. And the last number is the key as he threw 9 of those 12 INT’s in just four games. And ever since he started to get acclimated to the league, Denver has been on a tear as they’ve won five of their last seven games. The only two losses were in OT to the Bengals and by one score to the Chargers.

The Bills on the other hand have absorbed playoff failure time and time again. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 5-5 in the playoffs. And it hasn’t been his fault, necessarily, on why they find ways to lose. Allen has a 21 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. But it’s always something with Sean McDermott’s team. Last season was setup perfectly for them, bringing the Chiefs to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. However, they still found a way to lose. Fitting the narrative that the weight of the playoffs often consumes this team.

My biggest concern this year is the lack of weapons at Allen’s disposal. However, the good news is the Broncos can be exposed in the passing game without using the WR’s. Denver allows the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s and the 2nd most receiving TD’s. And DVOA has them as the 31st ranked pass D against backs. So watchout for a big game from James Cook. I also think this is a good spot for Allen. Denver thrives on creating pressure at the line and he’s one of the best at alluding it.

Additionally, the way to attack Buffalo is on the ground as the air as they rank 28th versus WR1 and 29th versus WR2 according to DVOA. But I just can’t trust a rookie QB enough to put my money behind them in a game where he will be relied on to make big plays. Denver will keep it close for a while but Buffalo pulls away late and covers the number.

PROP BETS: James Cook over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Broncos are so good against the pass on the perimeter that you have to check down to your outlets. Plus they love to send pressure, sending the blitz 29.5% (7th in league), that we could see two RB packages that allow one of them to get free in coverage.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES –5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

First off, this may come with some bias. So tread carefully and tail if you believe what I’m saying. But if you’ve followed me this year, I’m very reluctant to bet on the Birds. And when I do, I’ve been on the right side.

To me, the difference in this game is the Eagles defense. They are the #1 ranked unit as far as yards per game and the second-best team in points per game. The Packers are without their one receiver that can stretch defenses, as Christian Watson is out with an injured knee. This will allow the Eagles to stack the box and try to control the Packers running game. Which is the strength of this team.

We’ve also know the Packers are just 1-5 against NFC playoff teams with their lone win against the Rams. And now they’re dealing with a potential injury to their best defender (outside of Xavier McKinney) in Quay Walker. While Green Bay was the surprise team last year, I don’t see them having enough bullets in the chamber to threaten the Eagles D.

PROP BETS: Saquon Barkley over 20.5 rushing attempts (-110 DK). Jalen Hurts is returning from a concussion so I expect most of the RPO’s to go to Barkley. The other thing is, I see the Eagles having a lead and trying to bleed the clock by running Saquon.

TAMPA BAY BUCS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

We have another matchup of teams that met way back in Week 1. Whatever we can glean from that game, is likely moot for this one. Both teams are much different then they were in September. Jayden Daniels ended up with the 4th best QBR in the NFL. But his WBR of 35.7 in Week 1 was his 3rd worst total of the season. His progress is a huge reason why Washington is seeded 6th and finished with 12 wins. As for Tampa, they look different than what they were in September mainly because of their offensive adjustments. After losing Chris Godwin, this team went into young mode and focused on growing their young WR corps, like Jalen McMillan, and shifting their primary RB from Rachaad White to rookie Bucky Irving.

The reason why I lean towards the home team is because of Todd Bowles ability to confuse and frustrate QB’s. He has made a living on that and will try to show young Jayden Daniels a litany of looks he hasn’t yet seen. And Washington thrived against lesser competition but was just 1-4 against playoff teams, including 0-3 on the road.

PROP BETS: Bucky Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). Washington was 26th in run defense DVOA. And they allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. If they decide to stack the box, Baker will shred them. I think they play an aggressive D that tries to create havoc and will leave holes for big plays with Irving.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 at LA RAMS

I’m riding on the Vikings in this one as they were the better team all season. The Lions exposed QB Sam Darnold last week as he played his worst game of the season while facing intense pressure all evening. But the throws that he missed can be coached up. And the Vikings were in the game until midway through the 3rd quarter. While I do think Minnesota is slightly overrated, they are a better offensive team and defensive team than the Rams.

DEFENSE:

Minnesota: 5th in ppg (19.5),16th in yards per game (335.4), 2nd in DVOA

LA Rams: 17th in ppg (22.7), 26th in yards per game (353.1), 26th in DVOA

OFFENSE:

Minnesota: 9th in ppg (25.6), 12th in yards per game (349.4), 15th in DVOA

LA Rams: 20th in ppg (21.6), 15th in yards per game (331.4), 10th in DVOA

In all those stats, the Rams only have an edge in offensive DVOA, and it’s by the slightest of margins. While Stafford is the better QB, the Vikings are the overall better team and I see them playing inspired ball following their tough loss in Detroit and advancing to the Divisional Round with a win in LA, or Arizona against LA.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 3 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the first slate of the NFL postseason. Both games should be competitive as the Texans host the Chargers and AFC North rivals, Steelers and Ravens face off in Baltimore.
The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Lamar Jackson ($8000DK, $8700FD)

Jackson has been a top-two QB this season alongside Josh Allen, and he is very much in play on Saturday for the playoffs. In his two regular-season games against the Steelers, Jackson threw for 207 in each of them, three passing touchdowns, and added 133 yards and a score on the ground. In those two games, he averaged 18.7 points on DraftKings. The Steelers are the sixth-best defense (best on the slate) against quarterbacks in fantasy but with the success that Jackson has had against them, I am comfortable paying up for him in this spot.

Who to pair him with: Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely. Nelson Agholor

Justin Herbert ($6000DK, $7500FD)

I like Herbert’s matchup against the Texans on Saturday. Houston is allowing the 15th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (second most on the slate). The Chargers finished off the season with a lot more passing attempts with seven of Hebert’s 10 30+ passing attempt games coming over the past eight weeks. Over the past five weeks, Herbert has also thrown 43% of his touchdowns this season (10 of his 23). With the Texans allowing the third most passing touchdowns, if this trend continues for the Chargers then Hebert should be in for a big day.

Who to pair him with: Ladd McConkey. Derius Davis. Will Dissly.

Honorable Mentions: Cj Stroud. Russell Wilson

The RBs:

Derrick Henry ($8200DK, $9800FD)

Not much to say here, Henry was second in rushing yards and was tied with James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs with 16 rushing touchdowns for the league lead. In his two games against the Steelers this season Henry averaged 113.5 rushing yards and scored one rushing touchdown and added 27 receiving yards. Henry will always be in play no matter which defense he is playing against.

Joe Mixon ($7200DK, $7500FD)

I want to pair Mixon with Henry on the Saturday slate. With Stroud struggling this season and the Chargers being ranked the 10th-best defense against quarter backs, I expect Mixon to be heavily involved in both the passing and run game. The Chargers have been good against running backs, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points, but I have Houston winning this game thanks to a good game from Mixon.

Honorable Mentions: Jaylen Warren. Justice Hill. Najee Harris. JK Dobbins.

The WRs:

Ladd McConkey ($6800DK, $7500FD)

The Chargers found their franchise wide receiver with Ladd McConkey. He is having a great season as a rookie, and there is no reason to expect that to change on Saturday against the Texans. Working out of the slot, McConkey should avoid Derek Stingley who is the Texan’s best corner. McConkey has a 34.6% target share so he has been seeing the ball a lot, and is averaging 2.35 yards per route run. At his price, he is a hard player to pass on.

Rashod Bateman ($5000DK, $6000FD)

With no Zay Flowers for this game, Bateman gets the chance to be the WR1 for the Ravens. Bateman has seen 72 targets and has been able to turn that into 45 receptions, 756 yards, and nine touchdowns. The unfortunate part of being the number one target at the wide receiver spot for Bateman is that he will now see Joey Porter Jr for majority of the game who is the Steeler’s top guy. Porter Jr is allowing the fewest fantasy points per route run, but is allowing the most yards by a Steeler corner. With an increase in targets with no Flowers, Bateman should be able to work in space and find a solid amount of receptions against Porter Jr.

Honorable Mentions: Nico Collins. George Pickens. Quentin Johnston. Calvin Austin III

Value WRs: DJ Chark. Derius Davis. Nelson Agholor. Robert Woods.

The TEs

Mark Andrews ($6200 DK, $6200 FD)

As I mentioned above the Ravens will be without their top wide receiver, Zay Flowers. Andrews who started off the season slow seemed to pick it up as the season was ending. He has reached double-digit points in seven of his final eight games and is averaging 13.9 points in that span. The Steelers are allowing the 8th most fantasy points (14.4) and are tiedfor the second-most receptions allowed (106) to opposing tight ends. Andrews had only six receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in his first two games against the Steelers, but he is still the best tight end option on the slate.

Honorable Mentions: Isaiah Likely. Will Dissly. Pat Freiermuth. Dalton Schultz.

Drago’s Best Bets:

Texans ML (+136) vs Chargers
Ravens -8.5 (-112) vs Steelers
Quentin Johnston Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
CJ Stroud Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Rashod Bateman Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Justice Hill Over 29.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

3 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Wild Card Weekend

Joe DiCarlo 3 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Well, another NFL Season is in the books. 14 teams remain in contention for the Lombardy Trophy in New Orleans in just over a month from now. It’s win or go home as we enter the Wild Card round where we’ll only get six games sprinkled over the weekend until Monday Night. Here we will look at salaries and who to roster for DFS in each matchup, so let’s cut right to the meat and potatoes. We’ll only focus on GPP plays during the playoffs since the player pools have been cut down drastically allowing us better chances of taking down tournaments.

Saturday Slate 1/11/25

Chargers @ Texans (+3) (U/O 42.5)

The fourth and fifth seeds collide to kick off the playoffs in Texas as the Chargers play the Texans. LA is back to full strength with the return of running back JK Dobbins from IR. He looked spry in his first game back carrying the ball 18 times for 63 yards while adding three catches for 12. Meanwhile, the Texans ended their season on a high note against a cupcake matchup between the Titans, who allowed quarterback CJ Stroud to find the endzone on his first and only series in the finale of the season.

As home underdogs, Houston will face a Chargers defense that was ranked number one overall in points allowed for the season. They’ll face an uphill road to the endzone as they’ve been short-handed at receiver with no reliable other than Nico Collins. Texans’ running back Joe Mixon seems to have fallen off a cliff towards the end of the regular season, as he hasn’t seen over 100 yards rushing since Week 13 after starting on fire. However, the Chargers are a team that refuses their opponents to run the football, as their DVOA is 7th to opposing backs. Paying up for Nico Collins and Joe Mixon along with paying down for Stroud would be pretty risky in DFS this week, consider paying a reasonable salary at the tight end for Dalton Schultz ($3,600 on DK) to get different in GPPs.

LA enters the contest as a favorite to win on the road, thanks to their tight defense, play calling, and Justin Herbert returning to his gunslinger role while JK Dobbins was injured. Now that Dobbins appears to be back, the Chargers may have a lock into the Divisional Round if they can hold up defensively to a Texans’ team that has struggled to find the end zone recently. But with Dobbins back on the injury report with an ankle issue, Herbert may be asked once again to air it out. Houston’s DVOA ranks 20th through the passing game, so it’s an arrow in the right direction for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly. If you’re looking to pivot and get different in this matchup, Derius Davis at $3,300 will be on the field quite a bit as he replaces Josh Palmer at WR3, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three games.

GPP: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly, JK Dobbins (if healthy), Dalton Schultz, Derius Davis

Update: Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer still not practicing, DJ Chark is now a pivot at wide receiver

Steelers @ Ravens (-10) (U/O 43.5)

Next, we head over to the AFC North where the third and sixth seeds will battle it out as the Steelers take on the Ravens Saturday Night. It’ll be a cold night in Baltimore where two top defenses will go at it giving us a low 43-point total, but Pittsburgh’s puttering offense led by Russell Wilson ended up making them ten-point dogs on the road. The Ravens bring a lot to the table and have been lighting it up on both sides of the ball, forcing the Steelers to go big or go home this weekend.

Pittsburgh will face the number-one-ranked run defense in Baltimore, a team that has only allowed 80 yards rushing this season. This diminishes Najee Harris’ production but could elevate Jaylen Warren in the third-down role catching passes out of the flat. The Steelers in order to win will need to get the ball into the hands of their best player-George Pickens. Last week was a gross in the game against Cincinnati, with one catch for zero yards. He made a lot of fantasy managers, including myself very unhappy. Expect a bounce-back week in the Wild Card as Tomlin and Arthur Smith will scheme to have Russell Wilson get him the football against a Ravens’ secondary that has allowed over 4,100 passing yards in 2024.

Baltimore will continue to roll out the number-one rushing offense until it can be stopped, even against one of the most put-together defenses led by TJ Watt. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry continue to punish opposing tackles and linemen with their ability to run their RPO down their throats. When Baltimore does decide to throw the ball, it’s been all Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman towards the end of the regular season. Zay Flowers has not practiced this week after suffering a knee injury in the closing game against Cleveland, so expect more usage from Bateman and Andrews if Flowers sits out Saturday. Isaiah Likely and Tylan Wallace (73% of the snaps in Week 18) will also see a bump if Flowers is out, and provide some decent leverage in GPP tournaments if they land in the endzone.

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Baltimore DST, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Isaiah Likely, Tylan Wallace

Update: Zay Flowers is OUT

Sunday Slate 1/12/25

Broncos @ Bills (-8.5) (U/O 47.5)

Day two of the Wild Card Round of 2025 will kick off in Buffalo as the Bills host the Broncos. Rookie Bo Nix will lead his team across the country alongside head coach Sean Payton as huge underdogs on the road. The weather forecast will be cold, with a possibility of snow, which could affect the total if it does begin to fall. Josh Allen and the Bills will be well rested after sitting out most of Week 18 and should be ready to wipe the floor with Denver.

For DFS on the Broncos side, do not be so quick to take the discount at quarterback for Bo Nix. He had a huge Week 18 that propelled his team into the playoffs, but it was against a Chiefs’ defense that rested everybody. Asking a rookie to take on a juggernaut of defense on the road will be a big task, as the Bills will be ready to put on the pressure. Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims have been his top targets, grabbing six touchdowns combined in their last two games, so they should see plenty of attention. Devaughn Vele plays the most snaps next to Sutton and could have his own big day if the defense focuses on his teammates.

Buffalo, we know where our bagels are buttered for DFS, and it’s the NFL’s QB-1, Josh Allen. If you can fit him in a lineup that works for you, then roll with it. He’s the ultimate dual threat at quarterback, who loves to spread out the passing targets. It’s tough to pinpoint who will be on the receiving end for the Bills in every matchup, so for DFS it’s best to pay down on their receivers. Amari Cooper has fallen to $4,900 on DraftKings, not because of talent but for availability. He’s been away from the team attending to a family matter but will suit up and has been back to practice this week.

James Cook is a smart pivot if you feel like fading Allen because of the Broncos’ defense. The second-year back landed in the endzone 18 times this season and could see more visits on Sunday afternoon if the Broncos can contain the Bills’ passing game and deploy a spy on Allen. The Bills’ DST also makes a nice stack alongside Cook, especially if Denver’s offense cannot get off the ground and Cook gets extra reps to eat off the clock.

GPP: Josh Allen, James Cook, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Devaughn Vele, Khalil Shakir, Courtland Sutton

Packers @ Eagles (-4.5) (U/O 45.5)

We’ll head back over to the NFC for Sunday afternoon as the Packers take on the Eagles in Philadelphia. Both teams have suffered some injuries to the starting quarterback position to close out the regular season, yet both of them have been cleared to play are Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Starting either this week for DFS would be a high-risk, high reward if this game becomes a shootout.

The Eagles enter this game as nearly five-point favorites but have been very cautious with Jalen Hurts’ concussion he suffered back in Week 16. This being his first game in three weeks, I expect the staff to curb his rushing attempts and have Saquon Barkley shoulder the bulk of carries, who should be well-rested after sitting out last week. Paying up for AJ Brown who may see plenty of Jaire Alexander could also be risky, so consider DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert who are safely priced much less than Brown and could produce the same value.

Green Bay has ridden the coattails of Josh Jacobs all season long, as he was sixth in the league in carries and rushing yards, along with 16 total touchdowns. They’ve become a run-first offense even with all the talent they have in their receiving core. Philadelphia however, will be waiting in the wings for their approach, and their defense is second in DVOA to opposing running backs, allowing only 104 yards per game this season. The Pack will need to move the chains through the air, so a lot will rest on Love’s shoulders. They’ll be without Christian Watson, so the next man up will be Dontayvion Wicks, whose price on DraftKings is a mere $4,500. Tucker Kraft also gets an arrow up with the Watson injury.

Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Eagles DST

Commanders @ Bucs (-3) (U/O 50.5)

Here we land in the highest total of the weekend as the sixth-seeded Commanders go head-to-head with the third-seeded Bucs in sunny Florida. It will be a popular game, especially for DFS as we’ll see some players with reasonable salaries set to be in some smash-spots fantasy-wise. Vegas also sees it as a close game with only the standard 3-point spread so yes stack this game if you like, even in a Sat-Mon contest.

Jayden Daniels of the Commanders delivers for DFS from week to week, when will he come down to earth? I don’t see that happening until next season, since this Bucs’ defense has been walked all over. The second overall pick in this year’s draft will feast on a Tampa secondary ranked 29th in the league in passing yardage. His legs are his most dangerous weapons, racking up close to 900 yards with six rushing scores. Pair him with McLaurin or Olamide Zaccheaus, who has crushed his value in recent weeks posting 24 and 23.3 fantasy points. Even more value lies in the Washington offense with Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, both in the $4K range on DraftKings and perfectly fine in this game environment.

As much as I love Daniels in this spot, I love Mayfield just as much. He’s $700 cheaper than Daniels and because of the Bucs’ defense, he’ll be forced to carry the load once again. Now we all know Mike Evans has been his go-to guy, but he’ll face his arch nemesis at cornerback Marshon Lattimore for another tough battle. Evans has struggled over the years against Lattimore, catching for only a total of 40 yards with three catches in two separate games. Taking on Jalen McMillan or Cade Otton at a discount may be the safer way to stack Baker, but I will never tell you to not take a shot on the future Hall of Famer Mike Evans. Both backs are useful in Tampa with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, though the latter has taken over the backfield and would consider paying up for Irving who has seen a bigger role here in January (72% of the snaps in Week 18)

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler, Bucky Irving.

Monday Night 1/13/25

Vikings @ Rams (+1.5) (U/O 46.5)

Finally, to wrap up the Playoffs Weekend we get the Rams hosting the Vikings on Monday Night. Whether you’re playing a Showdown or a Multi-Day Tournament, you’ll want to find pieces of this game in your lineups. LA’s game will be played in Arizona because of the tragic fires, which may hype the Rams up or drag them down because of the recent events. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss to Detroit last Sunday Night and will be looking for a get-right spot in the postseason.

The Rams will be ready and rested after sitting out their main players in Week 18 to prepare for the playoffs. Hopefully, Matt Stafford can get back on track with a solid outing after being in a slump since Week 16. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass or passed for over 200 yards in his last three games, so wake up Matt. When he does complete passes, it’s been all Puca Nacua or dump-offs to Kyren Willams in the backfield, while Cooper Kupp has disappeared from the scheme. Until we see some light from Stafford, stick with Williams and Nacua in your mullti-slate lineups while in Showdowns prioritize Nacua against the 32nd in DVOA to opposing receivers in your Captain/MVP slot.

Sam Darnold caught a few lumps in the big Sunday Night closer in Detroit, which led the Vikings to become a road team possibly throughout their postseason. But that was one game, and let’s give credit where it is due. Minnesota is a great football team that has won 14 games, and they will show us why on Monday night. The weapons are all on hand for Darnold, which rejuvenated his career. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones are all able to make their marks in the postseason, especially against a Rams team that may be mentally exhausted from the fires in California

GPP: Puca Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Matt Stafford

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Wild Card Weekend! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

3 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets for 2024 Week Eighteen

Dave Gloeckner 3 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Happy New Years to the Win Daily family! I’m very much looking forward to the 2025 year with all of you as we continue to push out information to help us all “Win”. As we enter the final week of the regular season, I’m in need of a positive one to stay on the plus side of the marker for the season. What is unfortunate is there are not many games on the slate that have playoff meaning. But we still have some angles to attack including understanding motivation, bonuses, draft positioning, and backup player talent. We’ll start with the prime-time game on Saturday night and take it to Sunday’s thriller in Detroit to determine the #1 seed in the NFC.

NFL BETS WEEK 18 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 45-45-1, game bets only)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (SATURDAY 830PM)

The Steelers have experienced a rough taste of reality over the past three weeks. They were blown out by three of the best teams in the NFL in the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. All along, the Steelers weren’t truly a viable 10-3 team. They lack offensive firepower, and their defense has significant holes, especially in the back end as both Kansas City and Philadelphia torched the Steelers through the air. But there’s one thing that Mike Tomlin is, and that’s the ultimate underdog. He is 21-7-3 as a home underdog in his career, including two outright wins this season (Baltimore and NY Jets). And coming off a terrible three game stretch, combined with the home underdog status to an 8-8 team, should be enough motivation to get the troops fired up.

Additionally, as much as Cincy has everything to play for, their defense is still an issue. The Steelers scored 44 on the Bengals back in early December. Since week 1, every team has scored at least 20 points on the Bengals minus the Giants (31st in points per game) and Browns (32nd in points per game). Then there’s the kicking concern which reared it’s ugly head again last week when Cade York missed a short game-winning FG attempt. On the other side, Pittsburgh has one of the best in the game who rarely misses in his home stadium. Finally, over 63% of the bets and money is pouring in on Cincy as their offense and playoffs hopes attract public attention.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +6.5 vs LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers have everything to play for while the Raiders have everything to lose for. In LA, a win by the Chargers will lock them into the #5 seed and send them to Houston next weekend for a playoff meeting with the Texans. A loss would push them 1000+ miles more east to Baltimore. The much more preferable option is obviously the Texans who have limped to the AFC South title this season despite having a negative point differential (-9).

But I’m going to back the feisty Raiders in this one. While a loss would put them in the conversation for a top-5 pick, that doesn’t seem to be something that is on HC Antonio Pierce’s mind. The Raiders have won their last two games following a 10-game losing streak. The reinsertion of QB Aiden O’Connell has sparked that mini win streak. However, it’s also clear the Raiders aren’t willing to lay down for their coach and will play hard until the end. And if this is in fact Pierce’s last game, I’m certain he will do his best to win it to improve his resume.

While the Chargers have looked impressive in the past two weeks, I could also see them getting out to a lead and then benching people thus opening a back-door situation. Playing in Houston likely means an early Saturday game so getting some guys out early might be in the back of Harbaugh’s mind if he feels he has the game in hand.

Lastly, 19% of the bets and 7% of the money is coming in on Vegas. That is the lowest on the board today and feels like this is a spot where the real Vegas could cash in big.

CHICAGO BEARS +9.5 at GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers have won 11 straight games against their rivals from the south. It is the longest current winning streak that one team has over another in the NFL. And wouldn’t it be so Chicago if they snapped that streak today? It’s obviously a meaningless game for the Bears and one they should lose to improve their draft stock. With a win they would likely drop outside of the top 5.

On the other hand, Green Bay is already resting several defensive players. They can only improve their positioning in the NFC with a win if the Commanders lose. Otherwise, Green Bay is off to Philadelphia for the first round of the playoffs. There will likely be scoreboard watching in Lambeau and that will determine the fate of their star players like Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love and others. I see the Bears playing this one for momentum and pride, as in not to lose their 12th in a row to Green Bay. Give me Da Bears in a game they should play to do what they know best, lose. But will do what Da Bears do best, which is the opposite of what their fans want.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 at DETROIT LIONS

I love both teams as they’ve embattled injuries and played hard, solid football all season. Minnesota incurred an injury to their presumed starting QB, JJ McCarthy, in the preseason. And all they did was hand the keys to Sam Darnold and watch him drive this team to a top 10 offense in scoring and passing. Detroit has had to overcome significant injuries to both fronts, including their defensive star Aiden Hutchinson and heart-and-soul RB David Montgomery. But yet, they keep winning, and doing it in style.

But ultimately, I’m taking the healthier team tomorrow night in the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers, who have been in shambles for weeks, put up 475 yards of offense against the Lions last Monday Night. That included 400 yards of passing. We just stated how Minnesota has a top 5 passing offense which means we have a major issue for the Lions. If it wasn’t for two Brock Purdy INT’s, the Lions likely wouldn’t have held on last week.

And Minnesota has the top rush defense in the league which will give Detroit some issues in their offensive attack. I see the Vikings getting just enough stops, and scoring enough points, to win the biggest game of the weekend and get the much desired 1st round bye.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): NEW YORK JETS -1.5. Say goodbye to Aaron Rodgers for good! We will all be better off for it. But in classic Rodgers fashion, he’ll leave with a win and tell you how close they were this year and how good he is.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 18

Joe DiCarlo 3 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

And we’ve made it all the way to Week 18 to wrap up another exciting season for DFS in the NFL. Happy New Year everybody, now let’s bring in 2025 with some extra cash in your pockets. This breakdown will be a full 13-game banger, however, most of the league will be winding down as the playoff picture is all said and done with only a couple of teams playing for their lives in the postseason.

This will be a very challenging week for DFS, since so many starters may not even suit up, second and third-string skill-set players are who we’ll be targeting on teams with nothing on the table. Start your studs in the meaningful games, and if you’re left with some salary when your lineup is done, leave it be.

Sunday Main Slate 1/5/25

Panthers @ Falcons (-8.5) (O/U 47.5)

We kick off the regular season in Atlanta as the Falcons will host the Panthers in an NFC South battle. Atlanta will be paying close attention to the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game as they rest on the bench since their postseason fate rests in the hands of a beat-up Saints team to pull off the unthinkable upset. Carolina will have no reason even to play spoiler this weekend, yet will aim to go out guns blazing in an offense revitalized with Bryce Young.

I see Atlanta looking to close out the season strong in a juicy matchup this weekend. Michael Penix has looked cozy in this offense, nearly leading his team to victory in Washington losing in overtime. The worst-ranked defense that will be playing its third and fourth-stringers will help Penix thrive this weekend. Drake London and Bijan Robinson are also usable for DFS, as they’ve all scored alongside him in his two starts.

Young has finished out the end of the season strong. scoring 16 or more fantasy points in five of his last six starts. He’s got to thank veteran Adam Thielen and the coaching staff for the progress, as the veteran wideout caught three touchdowns in their last two games together. The Falcons offer a whopping 221 passing yards per game and are 29th in DVOA to opposing wideouts, Thielen is the only game in town for Carolina and safe for cash.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Adam Thielen

GPP: Michael Penix, Drake London, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette

Commanders @ Cowboys (+4) (O/U 44)

Washington heads over to Dallas to beat up on the Cowboys in a game where the Commanders will try to move up a notch in the playoff picture. Starters will be out there for Washington, and Dallas may be very short-handed at home to put up a fight. For DFS it would be safer to lean more on the Commanders’ side of the ball as they’ll have something to look forward to with a win as opposed to a Cowboys team that’s checked out for the year.

Cooper Rush is down to the bare bones in weaponry on the offense. The Cowboys are down to Jake Ferguson and Rico Dowdle as far as skills set pieces for Rush to utilize, and that’s scary. Start up that Commanders’ defense in your GPP or cash game lineups, and don’t try to be cute with using any Cowboys for lineups against a young and hungry Commanders squad.

We’ve loved Jayden Daniels all season so let’s go back to the well to close it out. Terry McLaurin was shut down by Atlanta corner AJ Terrell last week holding him to only one catch, so look for him to bounce back against the second-to-worst defense in Dallas. Brian Robinson, Zach Ertz, and Olamide Zaccheaus should also thrive in the season finale.

Cash: Jayden Daniels

GPP: Commanders DST, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz

Bears @ Packers (-9.5) (O/U 40.5)

Next. we head up north to a meaningless game for both sides as the Bears visit the Packers in Green Bay. Although the Packers have clinched a playoff spot, they lie in the NFC North which is dominated by the Lions and Vikings, and will be a road team regardless in the Wild Card Round next weekend. Chicago will look to end their year on a better note after losing 6-3 to Seattle last Thursday night.

In Green Bay, running back Emanuel Wilson seems like a solid play this week, with Josh Jacobs possibly getting some rest. He’ll face a Bears’ defense that allows over 133 yards rushing per game, and with third-stringer Chris Brooks banged up, Wilson could play 75% of the snaps. Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, Malik Heath, and tight end Luke Musgrave are also candidates to see some extra run this weekend as Green Bay could rest some other starters. All are GPP options.

The Bears will try to end their season at Lambeau on a high note so we can see plenty of Caleb Williams in the closer. As for his weapons, I can’t trust veterans Keenan Allen and DJ Moore to be on the field for the entire game, and the salary for DFS may be too high to soak up. Williams threw his first INT in eight games last week while ranking first in the league in deep ball attempts and second in air yards.

Cash: Dontayvion Wicks

GPP: Emanuel Wilson, Malik Heath, Bo Melton, Luke Musgrave, Caleb Williams

Jaguars @ Colts (-5) (U/O 45.5)

Over to the AFC South, we’ll check out two teams with zero to suit up for except pride and sweat as the Jags take on the Colts. Two terrible defenses will collide inside a dome and clear of any sort of winter weather, hence the 45-point total from Vegas is on the table.

Joe Flacco peppered Michael Pittman with ten targets against the Giants last week, catching nine of them for 109 yards and a touchdown. Jonathan Taylor also ruled the backfield in that same game without Anthony Richardson to vulture carries. Taylor ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Both can see the same production and volume this week against a horrid Jacksonville defense that will have a season to forget in 2024-25.

Jacksonville still has only one game in town, and as I mentioned in last week’s write-up, his name is Brian Thomas Jr. The rookie on the season has caught 80 receptions for 1779 yards and ten touchdowns, no matter who is under center. On a slate where not many studs are playable over $7K this week on DraftKings, he’s one to consider especially against a Colts’ secondary that was just torched by former LSU teammate Malik Nabers.

Cash: Brian Thomas, Jonathan Taylor

GPP: Michael Pittman

Bills @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 38)

We arrive into the AFC East between two teams already announcing they will be sitting key players come Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is locked into the second seed of the conference and is mentioning rolling out Josh Allen for a series and than sitting him in order to keep his consecutive start streak alive. However, New England is also planning to sit Drake Maye out possibly out of caution for injury, but speculation is dictating that the Patriots have their eyes on the number one pick in the draft secured with a loss.

In Buffalo, you’ll have to dig deep for pieces to start in DFS at receiver and tight end, but at running back you can bet your last dollar that the rookie Ray Davis will get all the work out of the backfield. The fourth-round pick out of Kentucky has been a favorite of the offense on the goal line, as he’s scored five touchdowns on the year. He’ll see a full plate this weekend as the Bills will sit James Cook to rest up for the postseason.

Whether Drake Maye gets the start or Jacoby Brisset, it’s not going to be pretty especially if the Pats are in tank mode for the number one overall pick this year. That Bills’ DST is only $3,100 on DraftKings and I have my eyes on it now that the speculation is out on the team’s possible plans to end the season.

Cash: Bills DST

GPP: Ray Davis

Giants @ Eagles (-3) (O/U 38.5)

On to the NFC East in another matchup where nothing is at stake as the playoff-bound Eagles host the dreadful Giants in the season finale. Philadelphia announced this week they will rest their starters, which is somewhat of a bummer for us not to see the history of the rushing record possibly broken by Saquon Barkley. New York threw off the draft order entirely last week by dropping all the way to fourth by beating the Colts, which leads us to believe coach Brian Dabol is playing for his job.

With Jalen Hurts set to sit out another week, Kenny Pickett should draw another start, but nothing is set in stone according to head coach Nick Sirianni. As bad as that Giants defense is, it could be too risky to start Pickett along with some practice squad receivers for DFS this week. Running back Kenneth Gainwell will be the guy instead of Barkley, and against this Giants’ team that allows over 140 yards per game on the ground, I’ll gladly take a shot in one of my lineups.

Dabol is running scared for his job, and by no means does he care about the Giants’ position in the draft after Drew Lock and company put up 45 points on the Colts last weekend. Lock finally realizes where his bread is buttered, and that’s with Malik Nabers. The two connected for 171 yards and two touchdowns last week and is in line for even more work against an Eagles team that will be resting key players on defense.

Cash: Malik Nabers

GPP: Kenneth Gainwell

Saints @ Bucs (-13.5) (O/U 43.5)

Finally, we reach a game on the slate where a team has something at stake as the Saints visit the Bucs in Tampa. The spread says it all as Baker Mayfield and company will let it all hang out against a New Orleans defense that threw in the towel months ago. This game should see a ton of ownership, so get your cash game lineups ready to draft in this spot, as the Bucs need to win and get into the playoffs.

Everyone in orange uniforms is viable for DFS this week, especially Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. Not only are they one of the best quarterback/receiver combos in the league, they have some contract incentives coming their way if they perform well. If Mayfield can stay in the top ten in passer rating, touchdowns, yards per attempt, and completion percentage, he’ll rake in another $2.5 million on top of the $500K for making the playoffs. Evans will see an extra $3 Million for five catches and 85 yards which will put him at 70 receptions and 1,000 yards for the season. Evans will also hit a milestone of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons if he can hit the 85 mark.

As for New Orleans, although the Bucs have been thrown on all year long, it’s hard to trust Spencer Rattler. Let’s stick to the basics, use the Bucs’ DST, and get creative elsewhere on the slate. Tampa has way too much on the line and will be in shut-down mode as they strive to make the playoffs.

Cash: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans

GPP: Bucky Irving, Cade Otton (if healthy), Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, Bucs DST

Texans @ Titans (-1) (O/U 38.5)

We head to the AFC South for a game with no impact on the playoff race as Houston will head into Tennessee to end the season. The Texans have looked like a wounded duck closing into the postseason, losing 31-2 against Baltimore at home and dropping three of their last five games. Tennessee should provide a nice landing strip for the Texans offense to get back on track, as they’ll be taking a look at their bench players this week.

Houston has nothing to gain in Week 18, but their offense has been flat due to offensive line issues and injuries at receiver. Head coach DeMeco Ryans spoke this week on getting Diontae Johnson up to speed in the offensive scheme and ready for the playoffs. He’s a nice play for only $3,700 on DraftKings for a receiver that should see plenty of work from CJ Stroud or Davis Mills a week away from the postseason.

Since Houston has nothing to play for they’ll be sitting some key defensive players as well. It looks like Tony Pollard will be good to go as Tyjae Spears is doubtful to play in the Titans’ backfield. If Pollard can gather 83 yards rushing, there’ll be a $250K check waiting for him at the end of the year as a bonus for reaching 1,100 yards. If he plays, he’s a solid play at running back for cash.

Cash: Tony Pollard (if healthy)

GPP: Diontae Johnson

Niners @ Cardinals (-3) (O/U 44)

We’ll head over to the NFC West in a game where nothing really matters about the outcome of the contest as the Niners take on the Cardinals. Both teams will aim to put a stamp on closing out the season on a positive note for 2025. Not everyone will be suiting up, so here’s who to roster for DFS if you’re interested in this part of the afternoon slate:

Josh Dobbs will take under center for the banged-up Brock Purdy, which will be great news for running back Isaac Guerendo and tight end George Kittle if he’s good to go for Sunday. Dobbs’ tenure at quarterback over the course of his career has been very beneficial to his running backs and tight ends alongside him (TJ Hockenson ’23; Chig Okonkwo ’22; Trey McBride ’23; James Conner ’23). Both are GPP candidates and it’s safe to say they should play a decent amount of snaps in the finale. Ricky Pearsall had his rookie breakout game this past weekend against Detroit, blowing up for 141 yards from eight catches with a score. He should see plenty of work as the Niners have no reason to play their veterans.

For Arizona, James Conner will not make it to the last game of the year, and the last man standing in the backfield is former Jet great Michael Carter Jr. He’s a bargain at $4,700 on DraftKings with no one even sniffing a portion of the workload with Conner, Trey Benson, and Emari Demercado all unavailable at the position. Also, look for Kyler Murray and Trey McBride to build off of last week’s chemistry of 12REC/123YDS/1TD in a game to end the year on a good foot.

CASH: Michael Carter Jr., Ricky Pearsall

GPP: Josh Dobbs, Kyler Murray, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride

Chiefs @ Broncos (-10) (O/U 38.5)

The number-one seed in the AFC will roll out their bench this week in order to rest some starters in Denver as the Chiefs take on the Broncos. Kansas City has nothing to play for while the Broncos are yearning for a playoff spot with a win at home. Now that we have another team with some incentive to play, let’s check out who will be available for DFS.

Denver has it all laid out for them to enter the postseason as all they’ll need to do is knock off the Chiefs’ practice squad. Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims will all be sure things to roster this week, but their running back three-headed monster will continue to be a conundrum to decide on to start. Courtland Sutton needs 82 yards to reach the 1,065 mark which will earn him an extra $500K.

Carson Wentz returns under center for the first time since Week 18 of last season, and he won’t be alone as far as backups for Kansas City. Using any of the reigning champs’ second and third stringers could be risky for DFS, but if you really want a piece of this team, consider Justin Watson, Noah Gray, and Carson Steele to lead the backfield, along with dart throws like Justyn Ross at min-price to get different in your lineups.

CASH: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton

GPP: Carson Wentz, Marvin Mims, Carson Steele, Justin Watson, Noah Gray, Justyn Ross

Seahawks @ Rams (+3) (O/U 39.5)

The Seahawks will end their season on the road in LA to face off against the division-champion Rams, who’ll also be resting their starters. Quarterback Geno Smith will be on the field for some incentive motivation, so of all the well known players in this matchup, the Seattle side may be more useful in DFS going up against back ups on defense in LA.

Rams head coach Sean McVey spoke this week on resting his starters, with no desire to move up the ranks in playoff positioning at home. He also touted third-round pick running back Blake Corrum to see a heavy workload this weekend. Seattle allowed over 120 yards per game rushing with their starting defense, so Blake may have an even better matchup since Seattle will play their second and third-tier defense. Jimmy Garoppolo will fill in for Matt Stafford and will see the likes of Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington running routes. All are great GPP options.

Once Geno Smith reaches 184 passing yards, holds his completion percentage to or above 70%, and leads his team to a 10th win, he’ll be two million dollars richer on Sunday night. He’ll continue to look for wideout Jaxson Smith-Njigba to move the football, who could break Tyler Lockett’s all-time single-season record once he catches five receptions. Both make a ton of sense for lineups in a week that is full of question marks on who to start.

CASH: Blake Corrum, Geno Smith

GPP: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell

Chargers @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41.5)

LA heads across the state to battle Vegas in a game that they may want to win depending on the outcome of the Bengals/Steelers game. If Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati on Saturday than the Chargers can lock up the fifth seed with a win in Vegas.

Say the Bengals do in fact win, Justin Herbert, JK Dobbins, and Ladd McConkey will have a great matchup against the pitiful Raiders’ defense that will be showcasing their practice squad in the finale. Although if the opposite happens, be prepared to fade the Chargers’ studs as there will be no motivation to win.

Vegas will be on the field solely to elevate their rookie star tight end Brock Bowers to top up the rookie reception record in Week 18. The record was held by Puka Nacua, who set the reception record with 105. Bowers now has the record with 108 and will look to tack on some more receptions and keep that record longer for himself for years to come.

CASH: Brock Bowers

GPP: Justin Herbert, JK Dobbins, Ladd McConkey

Dolphins @ Jets (+1.5) (O/U 39.5)

Finally, to end the slate and the breakdown for the regular season we’ll see the Dolphins try to sneak into the playoffs against a Jets team that may see Aaron Rodgers play his last NFL game on Sunday. Miami locks up a Wild Card game if Denver loses to the Chiefs and they beat the Jets. They’ll need the win without some key players however, so let’s wrap this up and start building winning lineups.

Tyler Huntley will get the call once again for Miami in place of Tua Tagovailoa but may be without top weapons Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as they both enter the weekend with questionable tags. This will put all the work on De’Von Achane’s shoulders to carry the Dolphins into the playoffs if Denver fails to take out the Chiefs on Sunday. New York may be inclined to stack the box if Hill and Waddle are out, so the Jets DST for only $2,600 on DraftKings would be a roster-able defense.

Aaron Rodgers may be playing his final game for New York and possibly his career this Sunday. But he’s one touchdown pass away from history and joining the 500 club. The Dolphins will put on the heat and be very motivated to make the postseason, but if Denver ends up with a big lead in the second half over Kansas City, Miami may begin to pull its starters. Rodgers could see an easier path to history if Denver crushes the Dolphins’ hopes. Blinders will be on for Davantae Adams at receiver in the closer, especially after Garrett Wilson’s X account posts.

CASH: Jets DST

GPP: De’Von Achane, Davante Adams

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 18 and the NFL 2024 season! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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