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NFL Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Thursday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	SportsBook	Line	Unit Risk
Darnell Mooney O37.5 Rec Yds	FanDuel	-110	0.5

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?

Well, we finally have our first COVID outbreak of the 2020 NFL season and let me say I’m just happy they have found a way to continue playing. Even with everyone making fun of what was supposed to be a low scoring terrible Thursday Night Game with the Broncos and Jets, we have to remember that this season can be taken away from us at any point. This also means we should bet more games! It was interesting to break down where all the money was going last week and to see where the sharps were going and where the public was putting their confidence. So lets look at NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?

Make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports NFL Week 4 Betting Lines Show to make more money with us this weekend, sign up for a Win Daily Sports Betting Membership to cash every sport with us, and to find the best odds from the books in your state check out our NFL Odds page!

Cardinals (-3.5) at Panthers

Last week we saw the Panthers were getting over 6 points from a mediocre Chargers team starting a rookie QB, making it easy to understand why the public was putting more money on them. This week we see the Panthers at home against what seems to be a pretty good Cardinals team that lost a close one to the Lions last week.

The Panthers have been gashed on the ground this year and it seems a team like the Cardinals would be the perfect team to exploit that. A very good running back in Kenyon Drake, a solid back up with Chase Edmonds, and one of the quickest and shiftiest runners in Kyler Murray. With knowing this information it makes sense that over 73% of the bets coming in would be on the Cardinals -3.5, but you’d probably be curious as to why over 89% of the money is on the Panthers at +3.5.

Maybe it’s a team going West to East for a 1 o’clock game? Maybe some whales think that Teddy B will be able to show up Kyler? I’m not sure at all, but it definitely is something to monitor leading up to kick off. This could be a case of bettors wanting that number to come down to -3 or -2.5 to hammer the Cardinals on the way up.

Chargers at Bucs (-7)

There is something about this Bucs team that makes the public want to love them and Sharps betting against them. This week it’s the big money players and the Sharps (I’m sure there’s some cross over there) that are going to be against this Bucs team. Last week I didn’t think it made any sense to be on the Broncos especially when they were starting someone no named Drew Lock. Shoot, they almost lost to the Jets!

This week it makes a bit more sense though with the Chargers receiving 7 points. The Chargers will be starting a rookie QB, but it’s not quite Bill B back there scheming up the defense. Todd Bowles is no slouch, but we think Tom Brady we usually just assume. The Bucs have been looking better and better each start this season, but have been running into injury after injury.

Chris Godwin will be out this game and probably a few more this year, Mike Evans still doesn’t look fully healthy, and Leonard Fournette doesn’t look like he’ll be making a start either. On top of the injuries the Chargers defensive line is fantastic, while the Bucs offensive line is good at best.

It makes sense that a Tom Brady lead team going up against a rookie QB would lead to almost 70% of the bets to come in on the Bucs to win by 7, but as we said, the Sharps and big bettors would disagree. Over 70% of the money has been pouring in the on Chargers +7 this weekend!

Patriots at Chiefs (-7)

We saw a lot of money come in on the defending Super Bowl champs last week to cover the 3.5 points against the Ravens, and it worked like a charm. This week is a similar set up, but with a different coach on the sidelines. After dominating what most people thought was the best team in the NFL last week, the Chiefs opened as 8 point favorites against the Patriots.

Now we know this isn’t quite the same Pats team we’ve seen year in and year out. They had the most COVID opt outs, and, oh yeah, 2016 Cam Newton is playing for them this year.

This line quickly moved down to -7 and you can now get it at -6.5 at some books. Why the 1.5 point swing to the Pats? The big money seems to think that spread is too much to give Bill B. Over 75% of the money has been coming in on the Patriots to cover, but it should be interesting to say the least. We’re also seeing the Sharp money is coming in on the Chiefs to cover, so we have some clashing ideologies here. For what it’s worth, a little over 60% of bets place are on the Chiefs to cover.

Jaguars (+3) at Bengals

My goal with this article is to give you the 3 biggest discrepancies in terms of who the bets are on, and where the money is going. It’s fun to fade the public in most situations because they are routinely wrong. With that being said, I had to add in a 4th because it’s a doozy.

Everyone was on the Jags last week at -3 against the Dolphins and were shown up pretty quickly. It was as classic Fitzmagic game and he did not disappoint. So after being favored last week, the Jags are now back in their rightful place of being underdogs.

We also saw the Joe Burrow Bengals trek to Philadelphia, where only bad things happen, to tie the Eagles covering the spread in the process. But there was a funny thing happening after that Eagles Bengals game, other than everyone asking where Doug Peterson’s fearlessness went. With the outcome as a tie, many people were praising the Bengals for what they did and destroying the Eagles for what they did. But again, they tied.

So with positive public perception on their side, the Bengals go into this week as a team that we all thought looked good last week! Even though the Eagles are literally just as bad as they are, if not worse. The Jags will be coming off a bad loss, but 10 days rest.

With the Jags now getting those 3 points they gave last week, we have over 60% of the bets in their favor to cover the spread AND 99% of the money on them to cover. Now it’s not quite sharp money on the Jags, but with that much going in their direction Vegas is not moving this line. It opened at +3 to the Jags and looks to be staying there even with all the action on them. Sounds like Vegas thinks if they move off that magical number of 3 things will start to move against them….

Thanks for checking out NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money? If you’re looking to start making some money betting this NFL season, and every other sport for that matter, make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership where we post daily plays on spreads, totals, and player props. Make sure to follow me @MichaelRasile1 on Twitter and check out all the content over on the Win Daily Sports Show Podcast!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	SportsBook	Line	Unit Risk
Tim Patrick O29.5 Rec Yds	FanDuel	-110	0.5
Brett Rypien O204.5 P Yds	FanDuel	-110	1

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Week 4 100-1 Bet on Any Team

ddwessels@att.net 4 years ago

written by ddwessels@att.net

NFL Week 4 100-1 Bet on Any Team

DraftKings is coming in hot with their NFL Week 4 100-1 Bet on Any Team available for all new users to get excited for the rest of the NFL season! They’re putting their chips on the table saying you take whoever you want, put $1 down, and you get $100 back for your smarts.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Offer: BET $1 on any team to WIN $100

Bet Now: Click Here
Who: NEW Users Only
Available States: CO, PA, IN, IA, NJ, IL or WV

Come on, you’re confident in who is going to win one of these games, why would you not take the free month? Think of it as a survivor pool, just take whoever is playing the Jets or Giants at this point…

To score this super easy $100, all you have to do:

Click this link
Make a deposit of $5+ into your Sportsbook account
Visit the Sportsbook Promos/Rewards page and pick the game of their choosing by clicking the ‘BOOST THIS GAME’
Add that team’s money line to the betslip and applying the boost as your FIRST bet

Really though, just take whoever is going against a couple of the worst teams in the league. No need to get cute, this is a survivor pool with everyone still available. Also, we’re not even using the spread! So go and win yourself $100 easy so you can sit back and relax the rest of Sunday. You can also head over to the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership page and take that $100 and turn it into way more by tailing our picks!

NFL Week 4 100-1 Bet on Any Team

Make sure to follow me @MichaelRasile1 and us @WinDailySports!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ MNF AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week from the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … Let's continue to let her shine on Monday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit ou...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Week 3 Where did the Money Go?

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Week 3 Where did the Money Go?

Week 3 is almost in the books and the Win Daily Sports Family has been smashing again in betting and DFS! It was a fun week that had a lot of questionable decisions by sports bettors that lost them a LOT of money. There were also some great decisions, like taking the Colts -12, that made people look very smart, considering how bad the Jets look. Curious where did the money go in week 3? We have you covered.

Week 3 Where did the Money Go: Totals

Texans at Steelers OVER 46.5

This one wasn’t quite in question, but it took a bit longer to get there than expected. The Steelers end up taking down the Texans who are now 0-3 on the season after playing what is probably the most difficult schedule so far.

The over finally hit with 6:24 left on the clock when James Conner rumbled his way in from 12 yards out. This play made the public very happy. With over 81% of the bets and 97% of the handle on the OVER, there was absolutely a collective sigh of relief.

This was a game that was bet around a bit. The line moved very quickly from the Steelers -6.5 to -4 and the total moved from 45 up to 46.5. Steelers covered and the over hit, but I’d be the first to say I didn’t think there would be that much action on this game.

With the Steelers defense looking the way it did, and the Texans offense looking like they could use a number one receiver, I found it interesting so much and so many people were on this game. Thankfully for the public, it all worked out.

Bengals at Eagles UNDER 47

Man oh man, what a bad beat! With the Eagles down 7 in the last 30 seconds of the game, Carson Wentz scrambles and dives for a touchdown tying it up 23 all. How perfect, all that needed to happen was for someone to score in OT and the OVER hits!

Over 87% of the Bets and 91% of the handle on the over were able to help drive this game from 45.5 to 47, a number that felt like it should hit. The Bengals offense has been looking good so far, their defense has not, and the Eagles defense hasn’t been much better.

After trading punts in the overtime session, the Eagles looked like they were going to lineup for a 55+ yard field goal to try and take the game, and hit the over, but instead had an offensive penalty. Then another. And punted the ball away to essentially end the game with 19 seconds left. YIKES! A lot of people didn’t get to cash their tickets because of this one.

Week 3 Where did the Money Go: Spreads

Jets at Colts (-12)

I guess unsurprisingly the number of bets placed on this game was about the same, 42% to the Jets and 58% to the Colts, each to cover. But the money on the Colts was significantly higher, with 86% favoring the Phillip Rivers led team. Now, this game did start -7 to the Colts before quickly moving to -11 and then ending at -12. So if you placed a bet on the Jets, I’m assuming you thought they were good enough to keep it within 10, or at least score at the end for a backdoor cover.

Nope. Not at all. Darnold threw two Pick Sixes, and the Jets offense racked up a total of 260 yards on their way to looking like probably the worst team in the league. I say probably for a reason though… The Jets offense looks bad and so does their defense, especially after trading away their best player in Jamal Adams, but I get now why he wanted to leave.

This game had the most money on one side, and that side was the clear winner and it wasn’t really ever in question. But even with as bad as the Jets were, there’s another New York Football team doing their best to lose people money, but we’ll get there in a second.

Bears at Falcons (-2.5)

To be a Falcons fan in 2020… my goodness. After last weeks debacle, how could it get any worse right? And man, these Bears just love taking it to the very end. One team can’t win, one team can’t lose. Why did we think the Falcons could cover this game?

The line opened at -3.5 to the Falcons and many people jumped on it there. This number started to come DOWN though with over 70% of the bets and 70% of the handle on the Falcons. That normally doesn’t happen, unless some very sharp money is coming in.

After being up 26-10 in the 4th quarter, Nick Foles led the Bears back from the dead for a 30-26 victory, covering the spread in the process. Sincerely, can it get any worse for the Falcons? Bears move to 3-0 and the Falcons to 0-3. To everyone who thought the Falcons could cover while being the favorite, sorry for your loss.

49ers (-3) at Giants

This was a smash spot for the Giants to get their first win of the year. The 49ers lost their top 2 running backs, quarterback, half their defensive line, and were already down a few more defensive and offensive starters. So naturally Nick Mullens threw for almost 350 yards and the 49ers held the Giants to under 250 total yards.

The line opened at -6.5 to the 49ers, which was still covered, but moved down to -3 as the week went on. The number of bets were split 50/50, but over 75% of the money was on the Giants to cover. And at 36-9, that clearly did not cover.

Sportsbooks were hoping the 49ers could cover with a second string team and that happened very quickly with the Giants not even able to score a touchdown. As I said with the Jets before, the Giants are also probably one of the worst teams in the league.

It was another fun day of football outside of the New York/Philadelphia area and we had money swing in both directions. Hopefully you enjoyed Week 3 Where did the money go? We’ll be crossing our fingers that the money will go more to the public next week! Make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership so you can be in the green every week and follow me on Twitter at @MichaelRasile1!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Week 3 Where’s the Money?

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

NFL Week 3 Where’s the Money?

We are almost one quarter of the way through the NFL season and if feels like it just started. Thankfully we have been winning over here at Win Daily Sports, so make sure to check out all the content we’ve been putting out! And definitely check out the NFL Week 3 Betting Lines podcast where we go over all of these games as well as the Win Daily Sports NFL Odds page where we have the best odds from the books in your state. But for NFL Week 3, Where’s the Money?

One important thing to look at when checking in on the current lines is where they were and how we got here. Seeing a line move significantly should be a good reason to perk up your ears and keep an eye on what’s going on. It’s normally one of two things: sharp money came in hard, or the public collectively thinks something. One of these is not like the other.

Now I’m not here to tell you to “fade the public” at all costs, but when your Uber Driver is telling you to buy Bitcoin, you should probably sell your Bitcoin.

Last night was a great example of paying attention. Everyone and their mother (hand up: me included) was taking the Jaguars because what they’ve looked like the first few weeks of the season. The line opened at -1 to -1.5 to the Jags and almost immediately moved to -3 Jags. The TOTAL shot up from 44 to 48. A lot of people were betting the Jags and the OVER, but that didn’t come to fruition. Over 70% of the bets (tickets placed) and the handle (amount of money) were on the Jags for that game, with everyone forgetting it’s still the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bucs at Broncos

This game has some interested numbers currently attached to it. The Bucs are Favored understandably against the Drew Lock-less Broncos, not to mention no Chris Harris or Von Miller. The line currently sits at -5.5 to the Bucs and has moved around a bit since opening.

Looking at where the money sits though is the interesting part. Number of bets being placed on the Bucs is much higher, 79%, but 97% of the money in coming in on the Broncos! This to me say Sharp Money and Big Money are in on Denver, while the public sees Tom Brady and that offense against a banged up team.

This doesn’t mean the Bucs will lose, or that the Broncos even cover, but it’s a good indication that Sharps believe there is some value in that that +5.5 to Denver and might be a place to look.

Packers at Saints

Aaron Rodgers is back and Drew Brees has one foot in his grave. This is what anyone on the TV will tell you, so you hear it and probably believe it at this point. Well, A-Rod never really went anywhere when he’s healthy and yes, Drew Brees doesn’t look great, but it was one game right?

This game currently sits at Saints -3 and after seeing what happened to them on Monday Night Football by being outright losers to the Raiders in Vegas, there may be cause for concern. There is also a lot of recency bias. The line opened at -6.5 to the Saints and has come down significantly.

While the two top wide receivers in the league should be showing out, it doesn’t look like we’ll get to see either of them on Sunday. The Saints run defense has been fantastic this year limiting Josh Jacobs and the Bucs running back room. It will be a hard road for Aaron Jones even as we have seen him balling out this year.

The public thinks the Packers do their thing and not lose by almost a full touchdown. Almost 70% of the bets are currently on the Packer in this case, but of course that’s only half the story. We currently are seeing Sharp Money and Big Money on the Saints and over 91% of the handle is flowing in that direction. Again, a cautionary tale on the Saints going on the road and losing a game we all thought they should win.

Chiefs at Ravens

In 2018 we were starting to get used to this Patrick Mahomes guy and all the magic he provides. Looking like they were going to lose, the Chiefs tied it late and won in overtime. Lamar Jackson is starting to make a name for himself.

In 2019, after both teams start 2-0 and easily look like two of the best teams in the AFC we get to see the new Ravens offense go up against the Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes has a lot of magic this time, but the Chiefs are up big. Ravens make a late push but end up falling by 5 points. Lamar Jackson wins the league MVP, while Mahomes takes Superbowl MVP honors.

In 2020, what do we expect to see? The line opened -2.5 to the Ravens and has creeped up over that magical number of 3 to -3.5. You may be saying “Superbowl champs are GETTING 3.5 points? How could I not take them?” Well, you share the same sentiment as the public does because currently 65% of the bets are on the Chiefs receiving those points.

With all that said, it is clear that the Big Money is in love with this Ravens team on Monday Night Football. 88% of the handle is currently in the Ravens favor with even our own Sia Nejad and Nick Bretwisch stating they think the Raven route the Chiefs. I’m personally staying away from this game because Mahomes has too much magic and I’m not about to bet against that.

Thanks for check out NFL Week 3 Where’s the Money? If you’re looking to start making some money betting this NFL season, and every other sport for that matter, make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership where we post daily plays on spreads, totals, and player props. Make sure to follow me @MichaelRasile1 on Twitter and check out all the content over on the Win Daily Sports Show Podcast!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

Jim Thomson 4 years ago

written by Jim Thomson

The AETY Model has started the season with a bang and a lot of profit. Let’s keep it rolling into Week 3 NFL Prop Bets.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	Sportsbook	Line	Unit Risk
James Robinson O15.5 Rec Yards	BetRivers	-112	0.5
Isaiah Ford O3.5 Rec	FanDuel	+118	1

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ MNF AETY Model Prop Lock

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

After a nice opening weekend of profit and another in Week 2, it’s time for the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model for NFL Prop Bets on Monday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the NFL Prop Bets the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 2 Plays

1-Unit – Bryan Edwards Over 30.5 Rec. Yds. (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors! Keep an eye on this article throughout the week as I’ll be adding more NFL Prop Bets as the model sees fit.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

ddwessels@att.net 5 years ago

written by ddwessels@att.net

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.

Michael’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Team Win Totals

Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.

Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.

Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.

Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.

49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.

Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.

Sia’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!

Week 1 Lines

Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1? This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1. Indy probably overvalued at this point.

Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line. Take it at 3 maybe. This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff. I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5. Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much. This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn. Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy. Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.

Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points. Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF. Too many weapons for Arizona. Game will be close enough.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place. Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints. Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd. Let’s see if the line moves. If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog. It’s a stay away for now.

Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay. Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5. Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.

Team Win Totals

Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule. Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles). 14-2 last year. Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU). Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU. Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).

Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division). People falling asleep on them. Great defensive front. They get their QB back. Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.

Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division. Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6. Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push. Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.

Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?). Under is a good bet here. Schedule is tough. Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.

Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it. Won 4 of last 5 games last year. 3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing. Pass rush should be good. Improved OLine. Good OC in Pat Shurmur. Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE. I believe in Drew Locke.

Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.

Super Bowl Winners

Ravens at 7 to 1 – Best team in the NFL. 14-2 last year. 4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric. Absolutely loaded up in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year). Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).

Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft. Defense is suspect but these are solid odds. I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.

Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB. Juju healthy. BigBen healthy. Stout defense. Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington). Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.

Division Winners

Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency. Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE. May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated. And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old. Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South. I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.

Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year. Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there. No help for ARod on offense. Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson. Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle. 15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s

Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did. Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.

Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team. Niners get almost everyone back. Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw. Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU. Team is loaded and getting value at +115. Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.

Jason’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Division Winners

Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.

Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.

Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.

Team Win Totals

Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5

Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9

I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!

Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!

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