NFL

It’s the Super Bowl!!!

In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Update 1: The Chiefs have one of the highest RedZone trip % in the NFL. The Eagles have the best RZ D in the league. That is good for Harrison Butker.

Update 2: I am moving Kelce up a notch in the rankings above Smith.

Update 3: I am limiting KC receivers (not pass catchers) to two

Update 4: You can consider forcing a TE into your lineups if you need to shrink the player pool. I am going to attempt to be overweight.

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Running Back

• The Chiefs allowed the least number of fantasy points to running backs in the 2024 regular season (16.3) 
• They gave up nine rushing TDs, and no receiving TDs to the position
• In the playoffs, James Cooks and Joe Mixon combined for 3 rushing TDs against them, while neither back broke 100 yards
• They are ranked 9^th in DVOA against the rush 
• The takeaway here is the Chief’s run game is better than the public think

How do you not recommend playing Saquon Barkley in the Super Bowl? This dude has been the best RB in the league, and now gets the biggest game of his life in a very condensed Eagles offense.

The Chiefs are better against the run than people give them credit for, but Barkley is just too good to fade. There are only two ways you could fade him, on a very small number of your lineups. First, you have Jalen Hurts, and hope he vultures the goal line work. Second, you play the Chiefs D. 

Kenny Gainwell will be active, but he is just not a part of the offense, virtually all season. He will not be getting much run at all in the Super Bowl. 

Will Shipley is a fade. He had two big plays in a blowout last game, and his price shot up. No thanks. 

• Tier 1: Saquon Barkley
• Punt: Kenny Gainwell 

Wide Receiver

• The Chiefs gave up 33.5 fantasy points per game to the position, and 19 receiving TDs in the regular season.
• They are ranked 19^th in DVOA against the pass
• Rank 26^th vs WR1, 10^th against WR2, 12^th against WR3

DeVonta Smith is my favorite receiver in the game. He is going to run most (55%) of the slot routes for the Eagles and that has been the best spot to target the Chiefs. He will see Chamarri Conner for the majority of his routes. Conner allows the highest YPRC, out of any starting corner in the game (1.21). The next worst corner, Cooper DeJean, allows 0.92. for reference. The Chiefs are also ranked the worst (in the game) against the WR2, which in this case I am assigning to DeVonta Smith. 

A.J. Brown will be less of a priority, which doesn’t, mean he is a fade in making multiple entries. I think he is going to pull shadow coverage from Trent McDuffie, who only allows 0.70 YPRC, which is the second-best in the game behind Quinyon Mitchell. 

Those are really the only two receivers that are worth writing up. Jahan Dotson will be on the field more than half of the time, however, he is never more than a punt. At only $1,600 on DraftKings, you could do worse. 

Johnny Wilson will see a handful of snaps. Parris Campbell and Ainis Smith probably don’t see the field. 

• Tier 1: DeVonta Smith
• Tier 2: A.J. Brown
• Punt: Jahan Dotson
• Mega Punt: Johnny Wilson

Probably horrible punts who get you a zero: Ainis Smith, Parris Campbell

Tight End

• The Chiefs gave up 15.53 fantasy points per game to the tight end, in the regular season.
• They allowed 5 receiving TDs, in the regular season (less than I expected to see)
• They allowed the third most receptions while giving up the most yardage (1191) to the position.
• They rank 11^th in DVOA against TE.

DeVonta Smith is my favorite receiver on the Eagles, but Dallas Goedert is my favorite pass catcher. The Chiefs are not good against talented receiving tight ends. The numbers above prove it. Goedert is reasonably priced at only $5,800 on DraftKings, which is great for someone we know will get volume in a condensed offense. 

Grant Calcaterra is on the field a lot, but most of that is going to be for blocking assignments. He is $1,000 and might come down with a catch. I don’t mind him in the Milly Maker, but it is not a high-probability play. E.J. Jenkins is the only other active T.E. for the Eagles right now, and he is a fade. 

• Tier 1: Dallas Goedert
• Punt: Grant Calcaterra 

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

• The Eagles allowed the second least number of fantasy points to running backs in the 2024 regular season. 
• They gave up only 5 rushing TDs, and no receiving TDs to the position 
• They are ranked 2^nd in DVOA against the Rush

Kareem Hunt has been the lead back recently so I am going to have to assume he retains that role. Last week he got 58% of snaps, compared to Isiah Pacheco’s 29%. Hunt has also been trusted while converting, goal-line opportunities. 

The Eagles rush defense is elite. I would not be surprised if the Chiefs got no rushing scores. This makes me low on Hunt and Pacheco while giving me more confidence in playing Patrick Mahomes. If I have to choose one, it is going to be Hunt. 

Samaje Perine may get a target or two, making him viable in MME. We know Perine as a pass-catching back, but Hunt and Pacheco are as well, and Perine is third on the depth chart. 

• Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco
• Tier 3: Samaje Perine 

Wide Receiver

• The Eagles allowed 31.7 fantasy points per game, and 17 receiving TDs in the regular season
• PHI ranks 2^nd in DVOA against the pass
  • 23^rd against WR1, 1^st against WR2, 7^th against WR3
• The key takeaway, from personally speaking with Darius Slay this week at Super Bowl Media Day, is the Eagles are less equipped to stop a team that does not have a true “WR1”. He told WinDaily Sports that he prefers to cover someone he knows will get 10-12 targets, as opposed to not knowing where the ball is going. That is exactly what the Chiefs do.

This is the position that will win it or lose it for you. The Chiefs rotate through their receivers every week, which all appear to be matchup-dependent.

The only receiver you know will be on the field for the majority of the game is Xaiver Worthy. 

The batch of Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and DeAndre Hopkins will be the next most reliable. Last week Hopkins took a step back with only 18% of snaps, but I don’t trust that will carry over into the Super Bowl. 

Justin Watson will see the field for limited snaps, while Nikko Remigio may find himself on the field for a couple of plays. 

Xaiver Worthy is the Swiss army knife receiver. He moves around the field at basically an equal rate making nailing down a primary matchup impossible. Really what this means is the Chiefs will look to exploit what is working with him, which includes potentially a rush attempt or two. This makes him the top option. 

JuJu makes sense in that he is only $2,000 on DraftKings. Sometimes he is good, sometimes he does nothing. He at least has more speed than Hopkins at this point. He is solid for his value. 

Hollywood Brown will likely be the second-highest targeted receiver, but his price is $5,400. I am shying away from him in my main lineup, solely because we haven’t seen it yet with Mahomes, due to injury. Can he have a big enough game to make the optimal? Absolutely.

DeAndre Hopkins isn’t going to be stretching the field like we have seen in the past, or breaking a huge play. But, I like him a lot to score. He is probably my next favorite pass catcher on the Chiefs, behind Travis Kelce to get a touchdown. This is from a combination of people likely being down on him due to playing time last game and his elevated salary. He still has great hands, and if he gets the red zone target, he is coming down with it. 

Justin Watson would need a big splash play, which isn’t impossible, just unlikely. He should remain in your player pool for MME. 

• Tier 1: Xaiver Worthy
• Tier 2: Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Tier 3: Justin Watson
• Punt: Nikko Remigio

Tight End

• Eagles allowed the second least fantasy points to tight ends (9.3)
• They have allowed 5 receiving TDs to the position
• The Eagles allowed the least number of yards to the position (591), which is about half as much as the Chiefs.
• They rank 3^rd in DVOA against the position.
• It is worth noting Zach Ertz had a great game against them in the Conference Championship. 

The matchup is poor, but Travis Kelce is going to get his shots. I do think the salary is a bit high on DraftKings ($9,000). You are asking for a massive game going against the Eagles, who are elite against the position. Low double-digit points won’t cut it for Kelce. He is going to need 100+ or a TD. 

Update: Coming around on Kelce more due to him seeing plenty of rookie coverage. I also expect Mahomes to have to get rid of the ball quick which helps him.

Noah Gray is the only other consideration and he is a solid punt. He is a talented TE and may benefit the most from two TE sets. When the Eagles are focused on Kelce, he should be able to make an impact. 

• Tier 1: Travis Kelce
• Tier 2: Noah Gray
• Fade: Peyton Hendershot 

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  Since the salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Barkley, Hurts
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Mahomes

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Mahomes, Barkley, Hurts
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Goedert, D. Smith
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Kelce, A.J. Brown, Worthy 
• Punt: Hollywood

Best Value: Goedert

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Saquon Barkley
• Jalen Hurts
• Dallas Goedert
• DeVonta Smith
• Travis Kelce
• Xaiver Worthy
• A.J. Brown
• Harrison Butker
• Kareem Hunt
• Hollywood Brown
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Jake Elliot
• Isiah Pacheco
• Justin Watson
• Chiefs D
• Eagles D
• Jahan Dotson
• Noah Gray

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Nikko Remigio
• Samaje Perine
• Kenny Gainwell
• Johnny Wilson
• Grant Calcaterra

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys – will probably fade them all)

• Carson Steele
• Will Shipley 
• Ainias Smith
• Peyton Hendershot
• Parris Campbell
• E.J. Jenkins

Best Rules for the slate:

• Highest exposed players: Goedert, Mahomes, D. Smith, Barkley
• Lock in at least one, Hurts, Barkley
  • If fading both you play the Chiefs D
• Play at least one
  • Hurts, Mahomes
• If playing Hurts, pair with at least one pass catcher
• If playing Mahomes pair with at least two pass catchers
• Play at least one
  • Goedert, Smith, Brown, Barkley 
  • If we get a high-scoring game, you are going to want at least two and add Hurts to that list.
  • Remember, this is a highly condensed offense which is great for showdown
• Play at least one KC pass-catcher
  • WR, TE, RB
• Don’t play a Kicker against your defense
• I am high on kickers in this game, over 50% of my lineups will have one
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 kicker
• Don’t play more than 1 defense
• Don’t play a CPT QB against a defense
• Don’t play a CPT RB against a defense
• Don’t play more than one RB per team, per lineup
• Don’t play more than one TE per team, per lineup
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys on the same lineup
• Don’t play more than 1, Brown, Watson
• Don’t play more than 1, Juju, Remigio
• Don’t play more than 1, Brown, Wilson
• Don’t play more than 1, D. Smith, Campbell
• Don’t play more than 1, Dotson, A.Smith
• Don’t play more than 1, Wilson, Campbell, A. Smith, Calcaterra, Jenkins, Gainwell, Shipley
• Don’t play more than 1, Perine, Watson, Remigio, Gray, Hendershot.

The Bills take on the Chiefs in Kansas City for a spot in the title game. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Buffalo Bills

Running Backs

• Kansas City is giving up 16.3 DK per game (Fewest).
• They have allowed 1197 rushing yards (3rd Fewest).
• They have allowed 413 receiving yards (4th Fewest).

I do not like the matchup the Bills running backs have against the Chiefs. KC was in the top five defensively against running backs in yards and fantasy points. KC is coming off giving up the most rushing yards to a running back, allowing 88 rushing yards to Mixon in the Divisional round. Coming into last week’s game the Chiefs had only allowed three running backs to reach the 70+ mark on the ground. In the first meeting between these teams James Cook led the Bill running backs with 20 rushing yards. The only saving grace for Cook that day in fantasy was that he scored twice through the ground. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson both had five carries but only managed to finish with 29 combined rushing yards. 

I am using Cook in a couple of lineups but he is not a priority for me as I think if the Bills want to win it will come down to Josh Allen and the passing game. As for Davis and Johnson, I like them but they are more punt plays that I’ll sprinkle in a couple of lines but they won’t be in my main lineup or single entries. 

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

• The Chiefs have allowed 2359 yards to opposing wide receivers (6th Fewest).
• They are giving up 33.5 DK (13th Fewest).

On paper, Khalil Shakir has the best matchup. Shakir plays around 75% of his snaps out of the slot which means he will avoid having to go up against McDuffie who will be on Keon Coleman. Instead, Shakir should see either Chamarri Conner or Christian Roland-Wallace who both mainly play as the slot corners for the Chiefs. Both allow .35 FPRR and Roland-Wallace leads Kansas City in YPRR allowed with 1.38. Shakir will be one of my most used players for the Showdown and is my favorite Bills player, aside from Josh Allen.

As I mentioned above, Coleman should see a lot of Trent McDuffie who is the Chief’s best cover corner. McDuffie allows a Chiefs-low 15.4% target rate and is allowing .22 FPRR and .84 YPRR both are just slightly above Joshua William’s .19 and .8. With McDuffie and Williams both switching between the LCB and RCB spots, both Coleman and Cooper will have to deal with the two best corners which means I am slightly off both compared to Shakir.

Mack Hollins is a solid punt option for a showdown. He has the most snaps played in the playoffs for Bills wide receivers so far and has seen four targets which is only behind Shakir and Curtis Samuel in the two playoff games.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins

Fade/DeepPunt: Curtis Samuel

Tight End

• The Chiefs have given 1191 receiving yards to tight ends (Most).
• They are giving up 15.3 DK (4th Most).

I like both of the Bill’s tight ends in this game. Both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have seen five targets in the first two playoff games which is only behind Shakir’s 13. With Coleman and Cooper, or Hollins if he is in for either guy, having to deal with the best corners KC has to offer, the tight ends are in better positions. 

With Kansas being one of the worst defenses against tight ends, I will try to have at least one of Buffalo’s tight ends in every lineup where I am using Josh Allen.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

• Buffalo is giving up 26.2 DK per game (5th Most).
• They have allowed 1629 rushing yards (16th Most).
• They have allowed 750 receiving yards (Most in the NFL).

I am a big fan of both of KC’s top running backs, Pacheco and Hunt, but there is a lot of uncertainty at the position since the return of Pacheco late in the regular season. Since Pacheco’s return in week 13 against the Raiders both running backs have had 50+ rushing attempts.

Isiah Pacheco: 54 carries, 193 yards, No Touchdowns

Kareem Hunt: 53 carries, 195 yards, 3 Touchdowns

Above is the stat line for the two running backs since Week 13. They have similar numbers outside of the touchdowns, where Hunt has the clear advantage as he has been used near the goal line more than Pacheco. I think both of them are in play for Showdown, but I wouldn’t force them into lineups as I’d rather prioritize the Chief’s passing game.

Tier 2: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt

Wide Receiver

• The Bills have allowed 2519 yards to opposing wide receivers (16th Most).
• They are giving up 34.3 DK (14th Most).

The Chief wide receivers didn’t have the best divisional round with only Worthy having a reception (5) while the other receivers were kept off the stat sheet on only four combined targets. In the first meeting between these two sides, the wide receivers combined for 12 receptions for 136 yards and one touchdown. This game should be a back-and-forth shootout so I’m expecting the Kansas wide receivers to be heavily involved.

There are three main wide receivers to target for Showdown; Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown. Of those three the main wide receiver I am targeting is Worthy. He is used in both the rush and passing games so even if he is not catching the ball I expect some trick plays for him as a runner. 

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins

Punt: JuJu Smith-Schuster

Tight End

• The Bills have given 817 receiving yards to tight ends (16th Fewest).
• They are giving up 12.3 DK (16th Most).

You don’t need me to tell you that Travis Kelce is a good play as he is Mahomes favorite target. But his backup is also very much in play for the showdown. Noah Gray has played at least 50% of the snaps in all but two games (45% and 49%) and has seen 50 targets this season. He is clearly behind Kelce on the depth chart but he has more receiving touchdowns which makes him very much playable.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Patrick Mahomes
• Travis Kelce
• Xavier Worthy
• Dalton Kincaid
• James Cook
• Khalil Shakir
• Keon Coleman
• Kareem Hunt
• Isiah Pacheco
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Dawson Knox

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Kansas D/ST
• Buffalo D/ST
• Tyler Bass
• Harrison Butker
• Amari Cooper
• Ty Johnson
• Mack Hollins
• Ray Davis
• Curtis Samuel
• Juju Smith-Schuster

Favorite props for the game:

• Dalton Kincaid Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-111)/ 40+ (+133)/ 50+ (+226)
• Buffalo Bills ML (+105)
• Xavier Worthy Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Divisional Round weekend concludes with a bang as the Ravens take on the Bills at Orchard Park in Buffalo, New York. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Baltimore Ravens

Running Backs

• Buffalo is giving up 26.2 DK per game (5th Most).
• They have allowed 1629 rushing yards (16th Most).
• They have allowed 750 receiving yards (Most in the NFL).

We are in the 20th week of the NFL season, so you do not need me to tell you that Derrick Henry is really good. Henry is one of the best plays on the slate. He ran for 199 yards and a touchdown, including an 87-yard rush, in the first meeting against the Bills. He is priced correctly on both sites, so while he is a priority, I wouldn’t force him into every lineup.

Justice Hill is my favorite value play on the slate. He is averaging just under three receptions per game and is taking on the Bills who allow the most receiving yards to running backs. I will have lineups with Henry and Hill in them as they offer different ways to attack this Bills defense.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Wide Receiver

• The Bills have allowed 2519 yards to opposing wide receivers (16th Most).
• They are giving up 34.3 DK (14th Most).

Before I write up the Ravens wideouts, I will say of the three positions this is the one I am using the fewest of. I prefer to prioritize the running backs and tight ends.

On paper, Nelson Agholor has the best matchup. Unfortunately, even with Flowers being out against the Steelers, Agholor only had one target as the Ravens WR2. At his price, he is still worth a shot as a value play.

Rashod Bateman is the Raven wide receiver that I would use if Flowers is out. His matchup against Rasul Douglas isn’t the best but it’s not the worst either. In his first matchup, he only had 1 target for 23 yards but with no Flowers, he should see a bigger workload. He’s had 19 targets in the past five weeks.

Tier 1: Rashod Bateman

Tier 2: Nelson Agholor

Fade/DeepPunt: Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker

Tight End

• The Bills have given 817 receiving yards to tight ends (16th Fewest).
• They are giving up 12.3 DK (16th Most).

I like both of the Raven’s tight ends in this game. With Flowers being listed as doubtful and unlikely to play, both tight ends should be two of the top three targets alongside Bateman in the passing game. Neither tight end did much in the first game against the Bills only combining for 1 reception for 23 yards on two targets. I am not worried about a repeat performance for this showdown.

Tier 1: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely

Buffalo Bills

Running Back

• Baltimore is giving up 19.5 DK per game (5th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1085 rushing yards (Fewest in the NFL).
• They have allowed 674 receiving yards (4th Most).

I am a big Cook fan, but this is not the ideal spot for him. Ravens are one of the best defenses in fantasy against running backs. He didn’t have much work in the first game as the game was out of hand late. I will use Cook in some lineups but he isn’t a priority for me. Outside of Cook, I don’t want to use any of the other Bills running backs. 

Tier 1: James Cook

FADE/Punt: Ray Davis. Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

• The Ravens have given up 2827 receiving yards to wide receivers (4th Most).
• They are giving up 37.4 DK to receivers (5th Most).

All three of the Bill’s top wide receivers are very much in play for the showdown. Of the three my favorite two are Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. There is not much to separate the Ravens corners, but of the three Brandon Stephens who will be on Coleman is the best to attack as he is allowing the most YPRR and is tied for most FPRR allowed.

Tier 1: Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Amari Cooper

Punt: Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel

Tight End

• The Ravens have given up 963 receiving yards to tight ends (9th Most).
• They are allowing 13.1 DK per game (13th Most).

I like both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid in this spot. Both saw three targets in the Wild Card game against the Broncos and both saw 29+ snaps (38%+). The Ravens have struggled to stop tight ends, allowing at least 50+ receiving yards to tight ends in 11 of their 18 games this season. In the first game against the Ravens, Kincaid had five receptions for 47 yards. 

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry
• Mark Andrews
• Dalton Kincaid
• James Cook
• Rashod Bateman
• Isaiah Likely
• Justice Hill
• Khalil Shakir
• Keon Coleman

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Ravens D/ST
• Buffalo D/ST
• Tyler Bass
• Dawson Knox
• Justin Tucker
• Amari Cooper
• Ty Johnson
• Mack Hollins
• Ray Davis
• Curtis Samuel
• Nelson Agholor
• Tylan Wallace

Favorite props for the game:

• Dalton Kincaid Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Justice Hill Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)/ 25+ (-105)/ 40+ (+265)

The Wild Card weekend continues with a bang as the Commanders take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Washington Commanders

Running Backs

• Tampa Bay is giving up 20.2 DK per game (8th Fewest).
• They have allowed 1238 rushing yards (4th Fewest).
• They have allowed 661 receiving yards (5th Most).

The main guy for the Commanders is Brian Robinson Jr who has been the leader in rushing attempts (187), yards (799), rushing touchdowns (8), and snaps played (505). When these two teams met in the opening weekend of the NFL season, Robinson had 40 rushing yards and was able to find the end zone, while also adding 49 yards receiving. The Bucs run defense has not given up 40 or more rushing yards in the last four games.

Austin Ekeler came back in Week 18 after missing the previous four games and led all running backs with 35 snaps played. I think he is in a great spot here against Tampa. They are allowing 38.9 receiving yards to opposing running backs, and Ekeler leads all Commander running backs with 366 receiving yards (30.5/game). I prefer BRob over Ekeler but I would not be against running both in a lineup or using Ekeler as a value play in a Washington passing attack lineup.

Tier 1: Brian Robinson Jr

Tier 2: Austin Ekeler

Punt/Fade: Jeremy McNichols

Wide Receiver

• The Bucs have allowed 2659 yards to opposing wide receivers (7th Most).
• They are giving up 37.3 DK (6th Most).

On paper, Olamide Zaccheus has the best matchup. He is coming off a decent game, but he has proven throughout the last four weeks that he will be involved in the Commander’s passing game. He should also be on the field for almost all offensive snaps. For a large portion of the game, he will be avoiding Jamel Dean, who is the Buc’s best cover corner.Dean should see Terry McLaurin for the majority of his routes. Terry is the Commander’s best receiver so having to go up against Dean shouldn’t impact his production too much.

After their top two guys, the Commanders have three receivers who have played significant snaps this season. Of the three, Jamison Crowder and Dyami Brown were the two that had the most success when they were in the game. Which ever of the two is in with Zaccheus and McLaurin should see the Buc’s worse corner, Tykee Smith. I won’t force either into my lineups but they are both in play as punts.

Tier 1: Olamide Zaccheus, Terry McLaurin

Tier 2: Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown

Fade/DeepPunt: Luke McCaffrey

Tight End

• The Bucs have given 1144 receiving yards to tight ends (2nd Most).
• They are giving up 14.6 DK (7th Most).

Zach Ertz is my favorite Commander’s Player for Showdown. Tampa has struggled to contain opposing tight ends, allowing 14 different tight ends to reach 40 receiving yards this season. In his first matchup against the Bucs Ertz had three receptions for 28 yards. At his price, you can easily fit him in almost every lineup.

John Bates and Ben Sinnott both play snaps every game but even though Tampa struggles against tight ends, neither endup on the game log most games so I am not using either unless it is in a 150max.

Tier 1: Zach Ertz

Punt/Fade: John Bates, Ben Sinnott 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Running Back

• Washington is giving up 23.1 DK per game (14th Most).
• They have allowed 1935 rushing yards (4th Most).
• They have allowed 387 receiving yards (Fewest).

I am locking in Bucky Irving into every lineup I can, he is my favorite Tampa Bay player on the slate. He is the top running back on the Bucs roster, leading the team with 1122 rushing yards and right rushing touchdowns. The Commanders are allowing the fourth most rushing yards to running backs and with how Irving closed this season he should be in for a big game. 

Last week in a must win game for the Bucs, Sean Tucker and Rachaad White played a combined 23 snaps and only had two total touches (both by Tucker). Based on that, I am not prioritizing either of these players and would only really use them as deep punts.

Tier 1: Bucky Irving

FADE/Punt: Sean Tucker, Rachaad White

Wide Receiver

• The Commanders have given up 2427 receiving yards to wide receivers (13th Fewest).
• They are giving up 32.7 DK to receivers (10th Fewest).

On paper, Mike Evans has the worst matchup. He is coming off a game where he broke 1000 receiving yards for the 11th straight year. He will be on the field for almost all offensive snaps. For a large portion of the game, he will have to take on Marshon Lattimore, who is the Commander’s best cover corner. These two have a lot of history so I expect both of them to play very physically but I am taking the future Hall of Fame wide receiver to get the better of the corner.

Their rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan has broken out the past five games where he has at least five targets and four receptions in all five games. He gets a much easier matchup than Evans, as he should see Mike Sainristil who has been the worst corner for the Commanders. Sainristil is allowing the most fantasy points (.27) and yards (1.21) per route run. Evans has the higher ceiling but I do like McMillan a lot so I’ll have at least one of them in every Tampa heavy lineup.

Sterling Sheppard is the WR3 for Tampa. He played 63% of the snaps in Tampa’s Week 18 win over the Saints and should see a similar snap percentage on Sunday against the Commanders. While he gets a good matchup against Noah Igbinoghene, I am not overly using Sheppard even at his price. He is clearly the third wide receiver and with Otton returning he becomes the fourth option. Use him if you need salary in a SE/3Max but reserver him for larger contests if you don’t need his savings.

Tier 1: Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan

Tier 2: Sterling Sheppard

Punt: Ryan Miller, Trey Palmer, Rakim Jarrett

Tight End

• The Commanders have given up 678 receiving yards to tight ends (5th Fewest).
• They are allowing 10.9 DK per game (10th Fewest).

Cade Otton is returning after missing the previous three games. He gets a tough matchup against a Commanders passing defense that has only allowed five tight ends to reach the 50 yard mark. In the first meeting Otton only had one receptionsfor five yards. I will still have some Otton in my lineups but I would rather prioritize using one of the receiver or Irving over Otton as well as using Ertz over him.

With how good the Commanders are I will not be using any other tight end other than Otton. 

Tier 1: Cade Otton

Tier 2: Payne Durham, Devin Culp

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

Flex Tier 1:

• Bucky Irving
• Zach Ertz
• Jayden Daniels
• Mike Evans
• Baker Mayfield
• Terry McLaurin
• Jalen McMillan
• Olamide Zaccheaus
• Austin Ekeler
• Chase McLaughlin
• Cade Otton
• Brian Robinson Jr
• Zane Gonzalez

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

• Tampa Bay D/ST
• Washington D/ST
• Rachaad White
• Sean Tucker
• Dyami Brown
• Jamison Crowder
• Jeremy McNichols
• Luke McCaffrey
• Rakim Jarrett

Favorite props for the game:

• Austin Ekeler Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)/ 25+ (-105)
• Bucky Irving Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-115)/ 90+ (-105)/ 100+ (+135)