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New York Mets

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 19)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Today we are back to having a split slate on a Wednesday. This article will be focused on the 8-game MLB DFS slate that starts at 7 pm EST. This slate has a real lack of high-end pitching, but it does have a bunch of mid-level pitching that has some extra upside. We also have some bats that should be in solid spots tonight.

Let’s dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Kansas City Royals

Although the Royals caused Tarik Skubal to have a negative outing yesterday, I’m still going to go right back to the well and attack them today. Skubal was cruising along until he completely imploded in the fourth inning. With Rodriguez being more of a seasoned vet, I don’t see the same thing happening two games in a row. Rodriguez has now been back for 2 starts.

In his first start, he was very blah as he finished with just 9 DK points. In outing number 2 we saw vintage ERod as he finished with 21 DK points. He’s amassed 14 K’s across the 2 starts and I don’t see any reason why he can’t get another 7 in this one. This is still a bad Royals team and one that we should feel comfortable attacking with a pitcher. I’m comfortable with ERod tonight.

Kent Maeda vs. Seattle Mariners

Really like this spot for Kent Maeda tonight. Bailey Ober was able to have a strong outing vs. this Mariners team tonight and Maeda is a bit more skilled than Ober. Especially from a K standpoint. Over the last month, Maeda has had a K rate of over 33%. He’s had at least 6 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings.

Against a Mariners team that is striking out 30% of the time since the All-Star break, Maeda has some strong upside and we could potentially see more of a ceiling-type game. There’s definitely some risk with Maeda as the Mariners have a strong lineup, but they strike out a ton and I’m going to chase the strikeouts tonight as we all know that strikeouts are King in MLB DFS.

Luis Castillo vs. Minnesota and Justin Verlander vs. Chicago White Sox are also in play. The pitching is not very deep tonight. I doubt I’ll stray from my top 2, but adding Castillo and Verlander to my player pool gives me some more options.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Ryne Nelson

This Braves lineup is just dominant. They scored a boatload of runs last night and will more than likely score more tonight vs. Ryne Nelson. They have a significant lead in home runs over the next team and they are 1 of just 4 teams that have scored over 500 runs this season. Few teams have the ability to put up runs like the Braves. It helps that they’ll be facing a pitcher in Ryne Nelson that has somewhat struggled over the last month.

Over his last 28 innings of work, he’s allowed 5 bombs and 10 barrels. Of the pitchers throwing tonight, no one has allowed more barrels than Nelson over the last month. From a priority standpoint, we’ll want to focus on the lefties first. They have a significantly higher ISO and wOBA than righties. That said, righties are also very much in play tonight.

We’ll want to get Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris into our lineups tonight. As I said above, lefties have crushed Nelson so far this season. They have a .243 ISO and a .379 wOBA. Both numbers are much higher than Nelson would like. Olson has been one of the better hitters in baseball this season and AA has looked like a genius for trading for him a couple of seasons ago. Against righties, Olson has a .430 wOBA and a .362 ISO. He’ll be a lock in my lineups tonight.

We can’t ignore Ronald Acuna or Austin Riley tonight. Riley finally broke out of his slump last night with 2 homers and 7 RBI. While I doubt we see a replication of that type of night, his bat looked solid and he should do well tonight.

New York Mets vs. Touki Toussaint

The Mets offense showed last night that they do have some upside when motivated as they scored 11 runs vs. Lucas Giolito and the White Sox pen. Tonight they’ll get an easier matchup vs. Touki Toussaint. While Touki hasn’t pitched that poorly this season, there’s a reason why he hasn’t pitched so sparingly in the Majors over the last few years and why he has bounced around from team to team. He’s just not that good.

He’s sporting a career ERA over 5 and an xFIP that is nearly identical. He’ll regress back to his career numbers and I expect that to happen tonight vs. a Mets team has does have some potential, even if their record doesn’t show it. Over the course of his career, lefties have been his weakness so we’ll want to prioritize them in our stack.

The 3 guys I’ll prioritize here will be Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil. McNeil has had a down year, but he did show some promise last night with a pair of RBI hits. If he can replicate that tonight, we’ll get someone that has upside at just $3.2k. This was last year’s NL batting champ at a severely reduced price. If last night triggered him, we’re getting a huge discount here.

Brandon Nimmo’s on-base numbers are down this year, but his power is up. I really like his price point of $4.1k tonight. Other bats to include here will be Francisco Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Brett Batty, and Daniel Vogelbach. My hope is that the Mets bats continue their momentum from last night.

Other stacks tonight are a complete game stack of the Reds/Giants game. Both sides could put up big numbers. I also really like the Cubs vs. Trevor Williams.

MLB DFS Summary

This is a tricky slate tonight. Pitching looks really tough and bats appear to be spread out. Pick your contests wisely.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 5)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Happy Hump Day! Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate brings us some strong matchups both on the mound and at bat. We a pitcher in Justin Steele with a beautiful matchup and we also have the Braves in another matchup where they should absolutely smash. Let’s see if those can be some building blocks for us today.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Steele vs. Milwaukee Brewers

If you’ve been following me this season, you know that I’ve been targeting lefties vs. the Brewers. Last time out, we went with Dick Mountain against them and he proceeded to turn back the clock and get 17 DK points at a $6.2k salary. Now Justin Steele is way more expensive than Hill was so he isn’t even remotely a value play, but he’s been pitching amazingly and this matchup screams ceiling-type game for the young Cubs hurler.

He’s coming off back-to-back 27 DK point outings. In those games, he combined to strike out 14 batters in 12 innings of work. I’ll take a more than 1:1 ratio every day of the week and with a matchup vs. a Brewers team striking out nearly 28% of the time vs lefties, there’s some serious K upside for Steele tonight.

Pablo Lopez vs. Kansas City Royals

We saw Kent Maeda have his way with the Royals yesterday, striking out 9 in 7 innings of work and allowing just 1 ER. With how well Lopez has been pitching, there’s no reason to think that he can’t come close to duplicating that. Over the last month, Lopez has a 31.5% k rate and a 71% first strike rate.

He’s been doing an amazing job staying ahead of hitters and that’s helped him get at least 20 DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s also been getting a 31% chase rate against hitters as well. Lopez should be able to return value tonight even though he’s priced over $10k. There’s little to this Royals lineup that scares me these days. Going double aces with Steele and Lopez is very much in play.

Other pitchers that will be in my player pool tonight will be Bobby Miller vs. the Pirates, Kodai Senga vs. Arizona, and Jose Berrios vs. Chicago. Berrios has been lights out since mid-May and should be able to do well vs. a team in the White Sox that is worlds better vs. lefties than righties.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Minnesota Twins vs. Alec Marsh

We don’t have much to go with Alec Marsh in the big leagues as he’s only made 1 start and that was against the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago. What we do know though is that he got absolutely shelled in that outing. In just 4 innings of work, Marsh gave up 2 homers and 5 ER. He also managed to give up 6 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 2.5.

I’m not going to sit here and compare the 2 offenses and they are in different leagues, but the Minnesota Twins have a very competent lineup and can put up runs in spurts with the best of them. Just yesterday they put up a 9 spot against this same Royals team. They should be able to put up a healthy amount of runs again today in a pristine matchup.

With this stack, I’m going to prioritize getting the big 4 into this lineup. That’s Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff. Each of them has been hitting the ball extremely well over the last week and with me, recency bias outtakes everything else. Kepler has been the best of the 4 as he has a 1.251 OPS over the last week. It’s great to finally see him putting it together on a more consistent basis. He’s also just $2.8k tonight. Makes paying up for Buxton and Correa that much easier.

Kiriloff is another key value piece here. He’s been extremely productive as he has 7 hits in his last 18 AB. Most importantly though, Kirilloff is only $2.7k on DK tonight and opens up just a ton of breathing room for us money-wise. Joey Gallo is also in play here, but he’s more reserved for GPP only.

New York Mets vs. Tommy Henry

It hasn’t been often of late that I’ve gotten to write up my New York Mets. That changes today. The Mets are coming into this one with their first 3-game winning streak since 1990. They are also undefeated so far in the month of July. This all after having one of their worst months of baseball in team history. The thing is the offense was rarely the reason for them losing. They were still able to put up some runs, the bullpen just couldn’t keep the lead.

They get a strong matchup tonight vs. Tommy Henry. Henry over the last has pitched to a 4.61 ERA and a nearly 5 xFIP. He’s been giving up bombs at a pretty quick pace, with 6 in his last 27 innings of work. We’ll want hitters from both sides of the plate here as Henry has struggled against both righties and lefties.

I’m starting my Mets stack with Francisco Lindor and Alvarez. The Francisco brothers! After struggling throughout the month of June, Alvarez has really come alive in July. He’s homered in 2 of his 3 games and stands a really solid chance of taking Henry deep tonight. Lindor for the most part has played extremely well since the birth of his most recent child. He’s already up to 17 homers this season and 55 RBI. He’s one of the top offensive SS in the league and should smash in this spot.

We’ll also want the polar bear, Pete Alonso. Things haven’t come overly easy for him recently, but against a bad pitcher like Henry he should do well. Other bats to include here will be Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and team MVP Tommy Pham.

As is always the case, the Braves are very much in play. Cal Quantrill has 3 straight negative point games. That’s pretty horrific. You know the normal plays here. I also like the Dodgers vs. Osvaldo Bido.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate of baseball. Some really good pitchers in great spots and some really clear spots for offense.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 9)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s full-slate Friday. Tonight we have a massive 13-game slate of MLB DFS. While this slate is lacking the top-tier aces, it does provide us with pitchers that have been pitching at or near ace level at non-ace level price. At first glance, this looks to be a fun slate with a healthy amount of options both on the pitching front and stacking front.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tyler Wells vs. Kansas City Royals

The Baltimore Orioles and Tyler Wells get to take on a bad Kansas City Royals team tonight. Wells for his part has been very good. Over the past month, Wells has an ERA of 3.49, while striking out nearly 35% of the batters he’s faced. He’s coming into this having been over 23 DK in 3 of his last 5 outings and hasn’t been in single digits since all the way back in April. He’s been one of the Orioles better this season and his price is just $8.3k tonight on DK.

He’ll face a Royals lineup that has a 26% K rate vs. righties this season and just a .150 ISO. Anything can happen on any given day, but I really like the spot for Wells tonight and he’ll be a lock in all of my lineups.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Seattle Mariners

Shohei Ohtani is coming into this one on the heels of one of his poorest performances in America. Last time out he faced the Astros and the start just didn’t go well. He allowed 5 ER in his 6 innings of work and struck out just 6. I’m going to give him a pass because it’s the Houston Astros and they are one of the top lineups in all of baseball.

Tonight he gets a much easier task as he’ll face off against a very disappointing Seattle Mariners lineup. This is a lineup that strikes out a ton which presents us with a ton of upside from Ohtani. The Mariners are striking out nearly 26% of the time vs. righties this season. Look for Ohtani to have a nice bounce-back game tonight and end up as one of the top-performing pitchers.

Other pitchers that have my interest tonight are going to be Marcus Stroman vs. San Francisco, Christian Javier vs. Cleveland, and Gerrit Cole vs. Boston. Going with a Stroman/Wells combo tonight very well could net you close to 50 points. At a combined $17k, you really can’t ask for more than that.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Dick Moutain – AKA Rich Hill

The New York Mets are coming off as disappointing of a series as they’ve had in a number of years. They blew 3-run leads in consecutive games. The good news for us is that this wasn’t related to their bats, but their pitching. Their bats have come alive as they just put 19 runs against a very good Atlanta Braves pitching staff.

They’ll have the luxury of facing off against a pitcher tonight that is about 5 years past his expiration date. Rich Hill is no longer the pitcher that he once was and the Mets should be able to get to him tonight. Hill has struggled against righties this season and the Mets will more than likely have 7-8 righties in the lineup tonight, well as long as Buck doesn’t play Daniel Vogelbach.

I’m going to start my Mets stack off with 2 of their youngsters, and that’s Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos. Alvarez in his short time in the big leagues is making a strong case for Rookie of the Year. He belted another 2 homers last night, bringing his season total to 11. He’s also up to 23 RBI on the year. The Mets haven’t had a backstop with this offensive prowess since the days of Mike Piazza.

I’m also willing to take a shot at Vientos. He did struggle last night, going 0-5 with 3 K’s. He should have an easier showing tonight vs. Hill and he was a lefty crusher in the minors. Both of these guys have home run potential tonight. I also want to add Francisco Lindor, Mark Canha, and Starling Marte to this stack. After starting out the season slow, Marte’s bat is really coming around and he should put up a big night vs. the aging veteran in Hill.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jordan Montgomery

We may start seeing the Reds in this stacking spot more often. They are no longer the punching bag that they were for the last few seasons. They have punch, they have spunk, and they have an attitude that says they just won’t give up in games. They’ll get to face off against a pitcher that is just 2-7 on the year and has struggled over the last month.

e’s pitched to an ERA of 5.76 over his last 25 innings of work. Montgomery has struggled vs. righties this season as they have a .351 wOBA vs. him and a .212 ISO. He’ll face a lineup that will consist of all righties tonight. That sets up extremely poorly for him.

We’ve seen so far what Elly De La Cruz can do as a lefty. Tonight we’ll see what he can do as a righty bat. If it’s anything like he’s done as a lefty, we’re in for a huge treat tonight! He’ll be a lock in my lineup when I stack the Reds and tonight will be no different.

I’ll look to build around him with guys like Matt McLain, Kevin Newman, and Spencer Steer. All 3 of these guys have crushed lefties this season. The only one of the 3 without a wOBA over .400 vs. lefties is Steer and he is at .392. We can also add guys like Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson to this stack. This is becoming a pretty lineup and one that we’ll want to use often, especially in matchups like they have tonight.

I also really like the Twins tonight vs. Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi hasn’t been overly sharp over the last month. Twins have a shot to put up a big number tonight. Other stacks I like are the Yankees vs. Whitlock, Pirates vs. Tylor Megill (game stack), and Dodgers vs. Ranger Suarez.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate. We finally have both options on the mound and for stacking.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 26)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Full Slate Friday as we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. With so many teams in action we’ll have a lot of different options both on the pitching front and stacking front. At first glance, this is shaping up to be an extremely fun-looking slate.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Oakland Athletics

Next up on the pick on Oakland train are the Houston Astros. While the Astros offense has been non-existent of late that’s of little concern to me here as we’ll be picking on them with the Astros rookie pitcher Hunter Brown. Brown has been extremely solid this season, pitching to a 3.20 ERA, and has 56 K’s in 50 innings of work.

Over his last 5 outings, Brown has reached at least 20 DK points in 3 of them. With a matchup today against a projected lineup that has a 25% k rate vs. righties this season, there’s definitely some upside for the young hurler. The projected lineup for the A’s tonight also has poor offensive metrics vs. righties, with just a .292 wOBA vs. them. I’ll be rocking Brown everywhere tonight.

Kevin Gausman vs. Minnesota Twins

Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His ERA for the year is just a shade north of 3 and he has 81 K’s compared to just 11 walks. Over his last 6 starts he’s been over 27.5 DK 4 times. The only struggles were against the Red Sox and Orioles. Even in that Orioles game, a top team in baseball, he was able to get 17 points.

He’ll face off against a Twins team that in all honesty has an average lineup. They are just 2 games over .500 playing in a division where they are the only team over .500. He’s at one of his lowest price points that we’ve seen over the last month at $10.3k. Because of that, I’m all over him tonight. Pairing him with Hunter Brown gives us a double aces combo this evening that has skies the limit potential.

Alex Wood vs. Milwaukee Brewers

This is a wild card pick for me tonight. Alex Wood hasn’t pitched overly well this season, but he also hasn’t pitched much as he’s made just 6 starts. This is more matchup based for me tonight. The Brewers have been dreadful vs. lefties this season. The projected lineup tonight has just a .293 wOBA and a .147 ISO vs. lefties. They also have a 26% k rate.

They’ve been attacked against lefties all season and tonight will be no different, even though it’s Alex Wood. He’s far from safe, but there’s definitely some upside tonight with Alex Wood and his $6.3k salary.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Brandon Pfaadt

The Red Sox get a strong matchup tonight vs. Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has made 4 starts in his big league career, with 3 of them being clunkers. Against the Rangers he gave up 7 in 4, against Miami he gave up 6 in 5, and against the Pirates, he gave up 3 in 5. The only game he really pitched well in was against an average Giants lineup.

Through his first 20 innings in the big leagues, Pfaadt has given up 7 homers and 10 barrels. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits as both sides of the plate have been hammering. He’s going to have his hands very full tonight against a very good Red Sox lineup, even though they’ve been quiet for the last week or so.

I’m striving for some power with this stack so I’m going to go with the 4 guys that have some really solid numbers vs. righties this season. Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Jarren Duran all have ISO’s over .200 this season and wOBA’s well into the mid .300’s. They are all set to have really solid days in what should on paper be a plus matchup.

I will add though that the Red Sox bats are mostly cold so this stack does come with a level of risk. That said, with how poorly that Pfaadt has mostly pitched in the bigs, this seems like a great get-right spot for most of these guys. If you want to go for value, guys like Valdez, Casas, and McGuire will get you that at the bottom of the lineup.

Washington Nationals vs. Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles has been a lister for quite some time. He’s a pitcher that has historically given up just a ton of home runs. This year has been no different for the journeyman. His 2.22 HR/9 is the highest that it has been in his entire career. He’s already given up 14 in just 56 innings of work. That’s compared to the 26 he gave up last year in nearly 180 innings of work. He’s struggling this season and we want to attack him as much as possible, even with an inferior Nationals lineup.

The first guy I’m going to here is going to be their leadoff hitter, Lane Thomas. Thomas had himself a really strong last week of baseball. Over his last 24 AB, he’s produced 9 hits, 2 of which left the ballpark. He also combined for 11 runs and RBI over that stretch. Another guy in this lineup that has had a solid stretch of baseball is Jeimer Candelario. He’s produced 7 hits in his last 24 AB and has a .846 OPS.

Other bats that I’ll have interest in this stack are going to be Dominic Smith, Joey Meneses, and Corey Dickerson. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but one of these guys is going deep vs. a pitcher that is giving up homers at an epic pace.

I don’t normally write up Coors lineups, but I really like the Mets tonight too. Yes, I’m a Mets fan but they showed their potential for run-scoring last night when they put 10 in rather poor hitting conditions. Pete Alonso seemingly homers every game as he’s up to 19 now. Seabold has given up worse numbers to righties this season so feel free to load up on Alonso, Alvarez, and hopefully Vientos if Buck puts him in there. Other stacks tonight are the Yankees vs. Joe Musgrove and Rangers vs. Grayson Rodriguez.

MLB DFS Summary

This is going to be a fun slate with lots of options on both fronts. There will be plenty of value to get double aces tonight as well.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 12)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We finally have ourselves a full slate of baseball on a Friday night. Tonight, we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS. Pitching-wise, we have a slate that is full of average to slightly above-average arms. There are few clear aces here so we’ll need to dig deep to find arms that will be able to fully take advantage of their spots. With that, we also have a bunch of bats in great spots making for a fun evening of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Oakland Athletics

Kodai Senga gets one of the better matchups on paper tonight. I’m going to completely ignore the number of runs that the A’s were able to put up against the Orioles because the Orioles’ pitching staff is going to be historically bad this season. Senga should be able to walk through this lineup with relative ease.

If you end up using Senga tonight and watch the game, you’ll want to skip the first inning. In both of his starts this season, he’s struggled in the first and then settled down nicely to win both. His ghost forkball is nearly unhittable and if it’s on tonight, he should be able to strike out a ton of A’s hitters. In my opinion, he’s the clear SP1 tonight.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a very strong lineup on paper. That said, they are also an extremely inconsistent lineup and one that wasn’t able to do anything last night vs. a far inferior pitcher in Spencer Turnbull. They showed last night that they can be had and next up to do it will be Drew Rasmussen.

Rasmussen is coming into this after back-to-back stellar outings. Through 2 starts, he’s sporting a nearly 36% K rate. Now the 2 starts were against the Nationals and the A’s, but he’s been spot-on with his pitches. Not only has he been striking out a ton of batters, but the batters that do make contact are not getting good wood on the pitches. Hitters this season have just a 15% hard-hit rate vs. him. He’s been great and he’ll continue to roll tonight vs. the Blue Jays

I know I normally stick with 3 aces, but after Rasmussen and Senga tonight, there’s not a single pitcher that I feel comfortable recommending. Each has a ton of risk or just isn’t very good. I’ll be rocking double aces tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. James Kaprielian

James Kaprielian is one of of my favorite pitchers to target when he’s on the mound. He’s someone that just gives up a ton of contact (83%), a ton of fly balls (47%), and a ton of hard hits (50%). The three of these things combined make for a pitcher that plays with fire and when you face a solid lineup like the Mets, it’s going to make for a very tough evening. While Kaprielian has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season, he’s been especially bad vs. lefties. Lefties have a .512 wOBA and a .480 ISO vs. him.

Knowing how bad Kap has been against lefties this season, that brings Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil into play. Nimmo, who has been an on-base machine this season, is fairly priced at $4k tonight. With the new rules in place this season, Nimmo has also started to run more, with 3 stolen bases.

Of the 3 lefties I mentioned, Lindor is really the one with the power. That said, I’m never going to chase homers in Oakland. Lindor can easily have a full stat-line though tonight. He’s not a lefty, but Pete Alonso is off to a red-hot start. He’s the one righty that I’d really be interested in here as he possesses enough power to make even the largest of ballparks seem small. The Mets are a full stack for me tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Mike Clevinger

This Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch and play in MLB DFS this season. Night in and night out, they’ll have players that can easily be the highest-scoring players on the night. Tonight they’ll get a nice matchup vs. a contact pitcher that gives up a ton of fly balls. On the year, Clevinger has a nearly 47% flyball rate and an 83% contact rate. Against an Orioles team that has a lot of pop, that’s going to make for a long (or short) night for Clevinger.

Any Orioles stack starts with Adley Rutschman. He’s someone that can go quiet at times, but he’s coming into this game right off a walk-off homer yesterday vs. the A’s. Rutschman is also someone that I really only target when he’s hitting from the left side. So far in his young career, he’s been a significantly better hitter from the left side.

Next up will be guys like Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Jorge Matteo, and Gunnar Henderson. Each of the guys has the ability to produce full stat lines and that’s what we look for in MLB DFS. Matteo will get you steals with a little power mixed in. Both Hays and Mountcastle have a ton of power and Henderson is a great young bat. This lineup has a ton of potential tonight in a soft matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jake Woodford

The Cardinals are currently a mess. They were shut out by Vincent Velasquez last night 5-0 and turn the ball over to Jake Woodford tonight. Woodford has not looked overly good so far this season. Through 2 starts, Woodford has an xFIP of 5.46 and an ERA of 9. He’s been getting hit extremely hard, with 5 barrels allowed in just 9 innings of work.

He’s also given up 4 homers in those 9 innings. Until he gets things right, he is someone we’ll want to attack. Although the Pirates aren’t someone I’d normally target on a large slate like this, I’m going double aces tonight and I need some value. The Pirates will provide that.

The main bat when it comes to the Pirates is Bryan Reynolds. He’s far from a value piece as he’s $5.9k tonight. If you can afford him, go for it. I’m more interested in the bottom of the lineup and guys like Carlos Santana, Ji-man Choi, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Rodolfo Castro. Each of them is under $4k. Santana has had a really solid week, with 6 wRC and a .993 OPS. He’s only $3.5k and gets the platoon advantage being that he’s a switch hitter.

Hayes is someone that is churning to break out. He has only 5 hits in his last 27 AB, but he’s had a 90% contact rate. If you put the ball in play 90% of the time as he does, good things will eventually come your way.

MLB DFS Summary

I’m going to keep things simple on this large slate. I’m going double aces and stacking 1 expensive stack with a cheap stack. Many of the hurlers on the mound today carry an inherent risk. I didn’t mention the Rays as a stack tonight because I think tonight is the night their streak ends. Berrios, although he has a high ERA, hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers indicate. He could easily shut them down tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 8)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

What a first day of the Wild Card it was. Phillies had a massive comeback and Mad Max had his worst playoff start of his career. Today’s a new day and hopefully we see some great action.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob Degrom vs. San Diego Padres

Although the Padres bats came alive yesterday, I don’t think it happens 2 days in a row. Mad Max clearly still has a hurt oblique as the spin rates on all of his pitches were down and down significantly. He had just a few swings and misses last night and was essentially throwing beachballs.

Today’s going to be different as Jacob Degrom toes the rubber for the Mets. Although he’s been giving up a few mistakes that have led to some homers against him, he still has a massive 42% K rate over the last month. The Padres are a team that struggles with fastballs. Degrom throws a bunch of them. He should be able to square this Wild Card matchup back up.

Triston McKenzie vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again. This Rays lineup just isn’t that good. Outside of Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, they have no serious weapons. Shane Bieber absolutely dominated the Rays yesterday and we should see McKenzie do it as well. McKenzie, in my opinion, is the ace in waiting in this rotation. He’s been solid over the last month of the season, having a WHIP of .88 and an ERA of just 1.91. He’s pitching really well right now and that should continue today.

Other pitchers that could do well today will be Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow. The only concern with Glasnow is that he has just 2 3-inning starts this season after coming back from TJ surgery. We can’t expect him to pitch much longer than a handful of innings.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Robbie Ray

I like the Blue Jays to get this series back to even today in a matchup vs. their old teammate in Robbie Ray. Ray had the finest year of his career while wearing the Blue and White of the Blue Jays. He has fond memories of pitching in Toronto, but those fond memories will be long in the rear-view mirror after he gets shelled today.

The Blue Jays were one of the better teams in the league this year vs. lefties and should be able to get to Ray today. Over the final month of the season, Ray was not overly sharp as he had 3 games giving up at least 4 ER, and his final start of the season he got rocked by the A’s. He should struggle vs. a really good Blue Jays lineup today.

Core: My core with the Blue Jays this afternoon will be Teoscar Hernandez, Whitt Merrifield, and George Springer. I’m going to prioritize getting these 3 guys into my lineups. All 3 smashed lefties over the final month of the season. Springer had a .360 ISO and a .383 wOBA while Hernandez had a .400 ISO and a .388 wOBA. Then there was Merrifield. Over the final month, he had a .444 ISO and a .481 wOBA vs. southpaws. He’s just $3.1k on DK and is a solid value.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Blue Jays bats I’ll look to today will be Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and Danny Jensen.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas

The Phillies bats woke up late in Game 1 and we should see that momentum carry over to game 2 for the series sweep today. I don’t think Mikolas is any more than an average pitcher. He has limited K upside and pitches to a ton of contact. Over the last month of the season, he had an 80% contact rate and just a 24.5% K rate. Most importantly though, hitters had 8 barrels and 4 homers against him over the 26 innings of work.

Core: My Phillies stack is going to start with Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. Schwarber has absolutely terrorized righties over the last month. He had a .492 ISO and a .468 wOBA. A leadoff homer from today isn’t out of the question.

Realmuto also finished the season strong vs. righties. Over the final month, he had a .300 ISO and a .380 wOBA. Mikolas is a pretty splits neutral player so Realmuto won’t be at a disadvantage.

Secondary/Value: I also Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Jean Segura. Look for this Phillies lineup to light up Mikolas today.

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like today will be the Mariners vs. Kevin Gausman and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Aaron Nola. If you want to get really crazy and you’re entering multiple lineups, stacking against Degrom can really set you apart today. He’s given up 6 homers over his last 28 innings of work. A ton of Ks too, but the homers are extremely troubling.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Playoffs? You want to talk about Playoffs? Yes! Yes, I do!. The 2022 MLB playoffs start today and as a Mets fan, I’m excited! MLB DFS is tough during the playoffs as we’re normally dealing with solid starting pitching and today’s pitching is quite good.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. San Diego Padres

While the Padres are a star-studded lineup, the Mets signed Max Scherzer to a massive deal in November for this very moment. He’s been one of the best pitchers of our generation and tonight is his chance to shine on the big New York stage. He’s coming into this having struggled in his last outing vs. the Braves, giving up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work.

Prior to that though he had been lights out, not allowing more than an ER in 4 consecutive starts. His K rate is nearly 31% over the last month, tops of any pitcher today. He’ll have his hands full tonight, but he’s the best pitcher on the slate. I’m locking him in as my SP1.

Shane Bieber vs. Tampa Bay Rays

We’ll see a substantial drop off in strikeouts from Scherzer to Shane Bieber, but Bieber gets the better matchup today. This isn’t the same Rays team of last year when they had the likes of Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows. Lowe’s on the IL and Meadows was shipped off to the Tigers. While it’s a solid lineup, it’s also one that has struggled vs. righties. Over the last month, they have just a .117 ISO, a .224 wOBA, and a nearly 32% K rate vs. righties. This is a really solid spot for Bieber today.

Zack Wheeler vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While my lean right now is to lock in Scherzer and Bieber, I may take a chance on Wheeler as well. He’s coming into this one fairly fresh as he’s only thrown 15 innings over the last month. And those 15 innings have been absolutely dominant. The competition in those last 3 starts wasn’t the toughest, but over them, he allowed just 1 run.

Although the matchup will be tough for him today against the Cardinals, the Cardinals haven’t really been crushing the ball over the last month against righties. Against righties, over the last month, they have just a .066 ISO. It’s only that high due to how well Pujols did coming down the stretch.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cleveland Guardians vs. Shane McClanahan

While I typically reserve using the Guardians against righties, they’re getting the pitcher today coming into the playoffs pitching the worst. McClanahan did not have a strong finish to the season. It could very well be due to the fact he’s never thrown this many innings. His 166 innings this year were the most he’s thrown in his young career, and by a lot.

Over the last month, McClanahan pitched to a 5.21 ERA and a matching xFIP. He was giving up more hard contact and more flyballs as the season ended. The hope is that it continues today and that the Guardians can take full advantage of his struggles.

Core: My core with the Guardians today will be Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez. Ramirez finished up the season strongly. He finished with a 5-game hitting streak, a streak that saw him get at least 18 DK points 3 times. Now he’s normally better as a lefty, but he’s the heart and soul of this franchise. If they’re going to advance to the NLDS, it will be on his back.

Next up is Gimenez. Gimenez has been one of their better hitters vs. lefties all year, and especially recently. Over the last month, Gimenez has a .410 wOBA vs. lefties in about 30 AB. McClanahan has been slightly worse against lefties this season, making this L/L matchup for Gimenez all the more sweeter.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Guardians bats we look to today will be Myles Straw and Gabriel Arias. Arias finished the season strong vs. lefties, with a .384 wOBA and a .273 ISO over since his call-up in late September.

New York Mets vs. Yu Darvish

After getting swept by the Braves, the Mets returned the favor to the Nationals. Their bates woke up during that series and they’ll hopefully continue with the momentum from the final series. The matchup will be tough for them against Yu Darvish, but the time to attack Darvish is when he’s on the road.

His ERA this season was a full run higher away from San Diego. It also helps that Darvish hasn’t exactly been Mr. October. In 7 career playoff starts, Darvish has a 5.18 ERA. Most of that was from when he struggled in the 2017 playoffs with the Dodgers.

Core: My Mets stack will start with Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso. Brandon Nimmo finished the season on fire. He had 6 hits in his final 8 AB and finished with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He’s reasonably priced today at $4.6k on DK.

After winning the 2022 NL Batting Title, McNeil will look to carry that over to the Wild Card round. McNeil also finished the season strong, with hits in 10 straight. In those 10 games, he had multi-hit games in all but 2 of them. He’s their best pure hitter and they’ll need his bat to keep going if they have any chance of making it to the Dodgers in the next round.

Secondary/Value: I also like Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach makes for a nice punt at 1B as he’s only $3.4k tonight and has power upside.

Seattle Mariners vs. Alek Manoah

Sorry Ghost, but I’m siding with the Mariners in this one. Although the ERA has been low for Manoah over the last month, the xFIP isn’t. Manoah’s xFIP is more than 3.5 runs higher than this 1.07 ERA over the last month. A lot of this is due to his disappearing K rate. Over the last month, Manoah has had just a 21% K rate, down significantly from the start of the year.

He also has a troubling 50% flyball rate over the last month. This is a strong Mariners and giving up that many flyballs can lead to some damage. Lefties are the way to really get Manoah. They have a higher slugging % and wOBA and 11 of the 16 homers he gave up this year were to lefties.

Core: When you stack the Mariners, it all starts at the top with presumed Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. What a year for the kid! He ended the season strong against righties, with a .421 ISO and a .535 wOBA over the last few weeks of the season. He’ll look to continue that momentum into this matchup vs. Manoah.

I’ll also build around Carlos Santana. He’s risky but also possesses some power from the left side. Although he doesn’t hit for average as a lefty, 16 of his 19 homers this season were as a lefty. At just $2.6k he’s a nice value with some upside.

Secondary/Value: Jarred Kelenic may also make my lineup today. He has a ton of risk, but at $2.4k I’m willing to eat that risk as he did start to show some power at the end of the year and fewer strikeouts.

MLB DFS Summary

I also like the Phillies vs. Quintana today.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 5)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Well, we’ve made it friends. Today is the final day of the regular season. If you’ve followed along this season, I thank you. It’s been a wild ride. We had some ups and downs, but most importantly we had some fun. All teams are in action today starting at 4 pm est. I suggest waiting until lineups are out to make any semblance of a lineup today. Things can get wonky as playoff teams don’t want to risk injury and non-playoff teams, welly they probably just aren’t that good.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Corbin Burnes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I doubt we get a full allotment of innings out of Burnes today as he’s already at a career-high 199 innings. That said, he’s the best pitcher on the mound tonight with a solid matchup. He’s also coming into this one off a dominant 8-inning, 7-strike-out performance against the Marlins. If we get a notice that he’s all systems go today, he’ll be my SP1 as he has a solid matchup today.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Oakland Athletics

Ohtani being nearly $11k on DK is a tough one. Does he pitch a full game? Do they pull him after 5? This time of the year it’s extremely tough to lock in expensive pitchers, but what a matchup he has today. Michael Lorenzen was able to strike out 7 Athletics in just 6 innings of work yesterday.

The A’s are a bad lineup and one that Ohtani can absolutely dominate. This is the same matchup he had a week ago that saw him strikeout 10 in a masterful performance. He’s only at 161 innings on the year, so it’s possible he has some extra string to play with today.

After these 2 today, it’s really a crapshoot. A case could be made for Clayton Kershaw, but I doubt he pitches more than a handful of innings. Yusei Kikuchi is in a solid matchup, but he’s only been pitching a few innings. Max Fried won’t go too long either against the Marlins, but he’s in a great spot.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Merrill Kelly

With this game being in Milwaukee, I suspect the Brewers will want to put their best foot forward for their fans after missing out on the playoffs. I’m sure the home crowd would be extremely disappointed if their stars sat so we should expect their regulars to get some meaningful innings today.

Although Kelly has pitched well this season, the last month has been horrific. Over the last month, Kelly has given up 11 homers and 15 barrels in just 29 innings of work. He’s coming off an appearance that saw him give up 8 ER to the Giants. We’ll want to attack Kelly with lefties. They have a .416 slugging % vs. him this season and 12 of the 21 homers he’s given up have been to lefties.

Core: My core this afternoon with the Brewers will be Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, and Kolten Wong. Tellez had a breakout season in 2022, hitting a career-high 34 homers and driving in a career-high 88 runs. Those good times should continue this afternoon in this matchup. Wong is another Brewers bat that in comparison to his years past, had a solid season.

Wong set a career-high in homers as well with 15 bombs this season. He’s been really strong vs. righties this season, with a .277 AVG and 14 bombs against them. He’s less than $4k today on DK and should return value here.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Brewers bats I like this afternoon will be Hunter Renfroe, my boy Jace Peterson, and Garrett Mitchell. Peterson helped me get a takedown earlier in the year, and he’ll help me again today. I use him at low ownerships against average righties and more often than not, it pays off.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jon Heasley

The Jon Heasley we’ve come to know returned last time out. After putting together back-to-back solid outings, he gave up 4 ER to the lowly Detroit Tigers in his last outing. He’ll have a much tougher task against a really solid Guardians lineup.

The way to dominate Heasley is with lefties. They have a slugging % over.500 and a wOBA of .373. 12 of the 19 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties. Thankfully this game is at home and the Guardians should play their regulars a bunch today in front of the home crowd.

Core: My Guardians’ core will consist of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor. While Steven Kwan won’t win the Rookie of the Year award, what a season he has had! He’s hitting .299 and could swipe base number 20 today. For a rookie, he’s shown an incredible eye with a .372 OBP. He won’t get us much power, but if he gets on, there’s a strong chance he’ll look to steal a base today.

Next up is JRam. Ramirez is currently stuck on 29 homers. A homer run today would give him 30 homers for the third time in his career. He’s already set a career-high with 124 RBI. He certainly did not take his foot off the pedal after signing that fat contract at the start of the year.

Secondary/Value: After my core, I’ll fill this stack out with guys like Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and Will Brennan. If Brennan makes the lineup today against a righty, he’ll be a lock for me.

New York Mets vs. Erick Fedde

You’ll notice a trend here, but I’m going to focus on home teams with my stacks today. And the Mets are no different. This will be the final regular season game at Citi and although they’ll host the Padres starting Friday, they’ll still want to put their best foot forward today for a dejected home crowd.

It also helps that they get a nice matchup vs. Fedde. Fedde has given up at least 3 runs in 4 straight games and should make it a fourth today. Fedde is giving up a slugging % over .400 to both sides of the plate so I won’t be too concerned with splits.

Core: My Mets core will start with Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor. If the Mets have any hopes of beating the Padres in round 1, they’ll need these 3 to be on fire. McNeil is currently leading the NL batting race, just a notch better than Freddie Freeman. The last time we saw a Met win the batting title was Jose Reyes in 2011. Reyes pulled himself out of the game after securing the title. It didn’t go over too well and I doubt we see McNeil pull the same shenanigans. He’s been the Mets’ best hitter all year and that will continue on the final day of the season.

What a season from Alonso! 131 RBI and 40 homers! He’ll look to cap off a solid 2022 season with a strong showing in front of the home crowd. Look for him to take Fedde Deep today.

Secondary/Value: I also like September Player of the Month Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Nimmo, Daniel Vogelbach, and Luis Guillorme. All Mets are pretty much in play today against a bad pitcher and bad bullpen. If Francisco Alvarez gets the start at DH today, he makes for a great punt at C.

MLB DFS Summary

Other attackable spots tonight are the Dodgers vs. Chad Kuhl, Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk, Cubs vs. Graham Ashcraft, and Mariners vs. Tyler Alexander. Lots of bats in play today.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight’s main slate is an 11-gamer that really only has 4 games that truly mean anything. With a Braves win or a Mets loss tonight, the Braves will clinch another NL East title <insert mopey face emoji>. The only other games that really mean anything at this point will be the Brewers vs. Arizona and Philly vs. Houston. The Brewers are in must-win territory at this point with the Phillies having a 2-game edge on the wild card.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Brandon Woodruff vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Coming off a 2 straight losses to the Miami Marlins, the Brewers turn the ball over to their ace in Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff is pitching as well as he’s ever pitched. Over his last 4 outings, Woodruff has struck out 42 hitters, while only giving up 4 ER. His 37% K rate over the last month far exceeds anyone else pitching tonight.

With him in a game that matters and their game starting earlier than the Phillies tonight, we can expect Woodruff to be one of the few pitchers that throw a full allotment of innings tonight. He is far and away the SP1 tonight.

George Kirby vs. Detroit Tigers

The last time George Kirby faced the Tigers he went 5 innings, striking out 5 and not allowing a run. My hope is that we see something similar out of him today. At this point of the season, we can’t expect any pitcher outside of the few that have anything to play for to go any longer than a handful of innings. With Kirby priced at $9k on DK, we’ll need him to go about 6 strong and get a handful of strikeouts.

Based on his history, that’s absolutely in play. Especially against a Tigers projected lineup that has just a .292 wOBA vs. righties over the last month. They’ve also hit for limited power with just a .135 ISO vs. them. This is a good spot for Kirby to make his final appearance before the playoffs start later this week.

Joe Musgrove vs. San Francisco Giants

Although the Padres did clinch a playoff spot yesterday, they can’t fully take their foot off the pedal just yet because they have just a one-game lead over the Phillies and can somewhat control their matchup in the first Wild Card round. Joe Musgrove doesn’t have massive K upside but he does have a respectable 25% K rate over the last month.

Facing off against a Giants team playing out the string, Musgrove should be able to dominate in this one. He’ll also be making his final tune-up for the playoffs. At just $8.7k tonight on DK, he’s fairly priced considering his ceiling. He’s reached 30 DK points twice over the last month or so, so there’s definitely some upside here.

At this point of the season, I don’t really trust any pitchers outside of Woodruff. Pitching right now is more of a crapshoot as there’s no reason to have pitchers go long, especially for teams already in the playoffs and those that have been eliminated.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Corey Abbott

Using the Mets after they just were swept by the Braves and all but losing their shot at the NL East feels a little dirty. Well, it feels a lot dirty. That said, they are still one of the few teams that have anything to play for tonight. While their chances at the NL East are about as slim as slim could be, tonight’s potentially the last game of the season that matters for them. I’m sure the flight home from Atlanta was an uncomfortable one for the Mets last night and I hope it was.

They get a great matchup against a pitcher in Corey Abbott that has struggled in his last couple of starts. Across both starts vs. the Braves, Abbott allowed 8 ER in just 9 innings of work. He allowed 3 homers also across those 2 games. With Abbott, we mostly want to focus on the lefties. Against Abbott this season, lefties have a .536 slugging % and a .387 wOBA. Those numbers get even more exaggerated when he’s on the road like he will be tonight.

Core: My core tonight with the Mets tonight will be Jeff McNeil and Eduardo Escobar. These 2 have essentially been the Mets’ best hitters in recent games, especially Jeff McNeil. McNeil is currently riding an 8-game hitting streak. Over those 8 games, he’s had multi-hit games in 7 of them. His season-long average is all the way up to .326, just a point behind Freddie Freeman for the lead in the NL. Escobar has also been swinging a hot stick for the Mets. He has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 4 games.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Mets I like here will be Brandon Nimmo (potentially his final Mets regular season homestand), Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach provided the majority of the Mets’ offense last night. Of the 3 hitters, he’s probably my favorite tonight as he’s the cheapest.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tommy Henry

The Brewers need a handful of prayers to make the playoffs. One of those prayers was answered with getting to face a beatable pitcher in Tommy Henry. Henry’s last 3 starts have been brutal. He’s given up 17 ER in just 17 innings of work. It doesn’t take a math degree to know that’s a bad ratio. Over his last 2 games, Henry has given up 6 homers. 6, not 5, not 4, not 3, 6! I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here. Both sides of the plate have been hitting him hard.

Core: My Brewers core will consist of Hunter Renfroe, , Willy Adames, and Andrew McCutchen. These 3 should be hitting at the top of the lineup tonight with a lefty on the mound. Renfroe has really solid vs. lefties over the last month, with a .167 ISO and .341 wOBA. He’s also been one of the more consistent Brewers hitters all year. They’ll need him to step up big time tonight.

Next up will be Willy Adames. Adames, while a little more of a K risk than Renfroe, also has a ton of upside tonight. He’s a little cold at the plate right now, and that happens with him from time to time, but a matchup with Henry is something that can really set him off.

Value: After my core, I’m going to lock in some value with this lineup. Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, and Tyrone Taylor are all incredibly cheap tonight and get the platoon advantage. All 3 are under $2.5k tonight, setting us up for a ton of salary relief in a plus environment. Taylor and Brosseau have both been crushing left-handed pitching over the last month and would be the priority here.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adrian Martinez

Other than padding stats and getting some playing time for the kids, the Angels have little to play for tonight. That said, they get a great matchup against a pitcher in Adrian Martinez that loves, and I mean loves giving up homers. Over his last 24 innings on the mound, Martinez has given up 7.

He also likes giving up hard contact as he’s given up 8 barrels also over that stretch. This is also a spot I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Righties have a .523 slugging % vs. him and lefties have a .481. Both sides can hit him hard.

Core: My Angels’ core will be the usual, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. They are both extremely expensive tonight at over $6k a piece. If I had to pick one, I’d go Trout here. In just 116 games, Trout has been able to put together another amazing season. He’s up to 39 homers and his next one will give him 40 for the third time in his career. It’s scary to think what he could do if he had a fully healthy season and a good lineup to hit in. Maybe next year, right?

Luis Rengifo could also be considered a core piece here. He’s shown some upside this season with 17 bombs. This is a spot where he could absolutely lead off the game with a homer.

Value: There’s also some really solid value in this lineup. Livan Soto is just $2.4k on DK and is coming off back-to-back 3 hit games. While 3 straight games with 3 hits may seem farfetched, he should do well tonight in this spot. Jo Adell is also hot at the plate and is just $2.6k. He’s hit safely in 4 of his last 6.

MLB DFS Summary

Other attackable spots tonight are the Rays vs. Dick Mountain, Blue Jays vs. Dean Kremer, and Dodgers vs. Jose Urena.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 10)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s finally happened! We finally have a full slate of baseball. A full slate means more opportunities to stack! Last night was one of the weirder nights in baseball as only 2 teams scored more than 3 runs. Hopefully today we’ll see more runs because let’s be real, baseball is way more fun when teams are crossing the plate!

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Daulton Jefferies

It pains me to do this, but the Phillies will be a regular of this article this year. They just have too potent of a lineup to ignore. There will be days, like when they face a Max Scherzer type, that they will be unplayable. But against a guy like Daulton Jefferies, they will always be in play.

Jefferies hasn’t pitched much at the major league level, just 17 innings to be exact. What he’s shown so far has not been great as he has a 5.36 xFIP. Even in AAA last year, Jefferies struggled. In 77 innings at AAA last year, Jefferies had a 4.94 xFIP and gave up 13 homers. This is going to be a tough task for him today. No other way to put it.

Jefferies main pitch is a sinker ball. We said it the other day and I’ll say it again today, the Phillies have two of the best in baseball in their lineup against sinkers. Both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber absolutely obliterate sinkers. If you can only afford 2 heavy hitters today, those are the guys you want.

Another important bat to this stack is Rhys Hoskins. After a down year in 2021, Hoskins has really started out strong this season. He’s already up to 4 hits in just 6 AB and has 3 RBI and 3 runs. Those three would be my core and then adding in Bryson Stott (check the lineup to make sure he plays) will help to stomach the amount of money you just shelled out for them. The A’s will be a team we pick on frequently, with both hitters and pitchers. Today we’ll certainly be picking on them with bats.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Bryse Wilson

Another team that will frequent this article is the St. Louis Cardinals. They have a stacked lineup again this season and with some of their youngsters having some more experience under their belt, they’ll be even scarier than last. The matchup for them today is another great one.

Bryse Wilson is not an intimidating pitcher, at all. Last season he pitched to an awful 5.10 xFIP, a number that is in line with his other chances in the big leagues. Lefties tend to get more loft against him, but he’s been pretty bad to both sides of the plate so we don’t need to shy away from anyone.

My core with the Cardinals starts with Nolan Arenado. He is off to a piping hot start to the year. Through his first 8 at bats, he has 5 hits and 5 RBI. His fly ball rate is also pushing 60%. He’s hitting the ball hard an in the air. There’s nothing with today’s matchup that indicates a slow down is about to happen.

Another important piece here is Dylan Carson leading off. While he hasn’t really broken out yet this year (it’s so early, I know), he’s been on base 3 times and has scored each time. Other people I’d look to here are Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, and Corey Dickerson. Honestly, this whole entire lineup is in play today so don’t shy away from anyone here when setting your MLB DFS lineups.

New York Mets vs. Erick Fedde

The Mets have started out 3-0 and there’s an excellent chance they make it a 4 game sweep of the Nationals today. They get a solid matchup with Fedde on the mound for the Nats. He was below average last season with a 4.42 xFIP. Batters had a 41% hard-hit rate against him so he’s going to give up some hard contact. While he doesn’t give up many flyballs, the flyballs that he does give up tend to leave the park. Of all the pitchers throwing today, he had one of the highest HR/FB ratios last season at 18.5%.

The two important pieces to me here are Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Let’s start with McNeil who is criminally underpriced today at just $3k on DK. He has started out the year extremely strong with 6 hits in his first 13 AB’s. He currently leads the Mets with a 4 wRC. His pricing hasn’t caught up to his production yet and we’ll need to take advantage of it as much as we can until it does.

Nimmo is also off to a solid start, with 4 hits in his first 9 AB’s. He’s still under $4k which makes the 2 of them an extremely cheap way to get some solid production. Outside of those 2, I’d also Cano, Alonso, and Canha. Marte is useable, but he’s the most expensive Mets player today and he’s shown the least production so far. Could today be the day he breaks out?

MLB DFS Summary

At long last, we finally have a full slate of games and I for one could not be more thankful. This is a fun slate today. Teams I didn’t write up that I also like are the Blue Jays vs. Howard and Rays vs. Wells. I’m hesitant to play the White Sox today vs. Skubal. He was a hit-or-miss pitcher last year who at times looked like he belonged in AA, but also at times looked like he could vie for the Cy Young. He’s a good pitcher and before i start stacking against him again this season, I want to see how he looks.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

3 years ago 0 comments

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