NBA dfs

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13

If I could pick one word, to sum up, the slate to start with it would be “loaded”. On DK alone, 10 players are priced $9,500 or higher and that’s before we even get into game environments. There’s already one game with an O/U over 240 and there could be more. It’s crazy that the Kings and Hawks might not garner the attention it deserves because of other spots. Let’s dive into that and more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 and find the green screens! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 Injury Report

Pistons – Dennis Smith Jr. (O), Svi Mykhailiuk (traded to OKC)

Nets – Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin (O), TLC (Q)

Raptors – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby (O)

Wizards – Davis Bertans (Q)

Kings – Hassan Whiteside (O)

T-Wolves – D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley (O)

Pacers – Caris LeVert will make his debut tonight. I have (almost) no interest in playing him in cash and I’m going to avoid the Pacers in cash for the most part. Adding in a player of LeVert’s caliber will change things and that makes the floor for guys like Damontas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon a bit more unsure. 

Suns – Devin Booker (probable)

Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Gary Harris (Q), Paul Millsap could be a rest candidate 

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 Positions

Point Guard

Damian Lillard/Luka Doncic – Alright so I’m starting with a bit of a cheat but I think this choice is dependent on what site you play. Let’s start with DK because I would just side with Doncic. He’ll be back after missing the last game and in one game after the All-Star break, he reeled off another triple-double. Now he gets a Denver squad that is on a back-to-back and already struggles defensively. They are only 15th in defensive rating and Dallas is bottom-five themselves. Both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace but this one should be full of fireworks and the Luka versus Jokic late-night hammer is super appealing. 

On FD, Lillard offers a discount of $500 which isn’t enormous but needs to be noted. I’ll be interested to see what the projected ownership is on each site but I love Dame Time regardless. CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic remain sidelined and that means Dame is the offense. Given the Wolves are third in pace and bottom-six in defensive rating, you have to love that combo. Minnesota also allows over a 37% conversion rate from three-point land, another fit for Lillard. He’s averaging a 33.7% usage and a 1.44 FPPM without the other two players in the lineup in an elite spot. Did I mention he’s under $10,000?

Jrue Holiday ($6,500 DK/$6,100 FD) – I can understand that Holiday might seem sketchy, but the minutes are starting to come back. He played 25 last game and should be a solid bet for 28-30 tonight. Considering they face the Wizards and these teams rank first and sixth in pace, we have to have some interest all the way around. It also has to be mentioned that Holiday only played five fourth-quarter minutes last game due to the blowout nature of the game. That can be a concern here but the price is simply too low. He’s second in the league in steals per game and Russell Westbrook is top-five in turnovers. That’s a good mix for some easy bonus points and the 1.06 FPPM on the year is nothing to sneer at. 

Note – I’m kind of in a wait-and-see pattern for the lower end of point guard tonight. The player that sticks out the most right now is Jaylen Nowell. I’m trying to decide if that’s just chasing a monster game or if we’re onto something more of a sure thing. He’s gotten minutes since Malik Beasley got suspended, but the results are all over the place. Let’s see what the model says tomorrow. As of now, this looks like a great spend-up position. 

Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, Kyle Lowry 

Shooting Guard 

James Harden ($11,800 FD) – I don’t feel the strong need to pay for Harden tonight on DK with all the other options. On FD, it could be a different story. Nobody will trust Bradley Beal after two straight stinkers. There’s not another shooting guard over $8,000 on FD which means the field could take one of two paths. The first is they could just live further down in salary and pay up elsewhere and the second is they lock up Harden and take the sure thing. Yes, the Nets are big favorites against the Pistons. Just look through Harden’s game logs though. He is a lock for 30+ minutes in every game. Without Durant, Harden has a 1.52 FPPM and a 29.8% usage which is plenty in this spot.

Buddy Hield ($6,600 DK/$6,500 FD) – I’ve been playing Tyrese Haliburton more than Hield in cash this year but the prices have flipped too much on FD in my eyes. Hield is $800 cheaper and this man is chucking three’s anymore. In the last four games, Hield has attempted 51 threes and played at least 37 minutes. Both teams are in the bottom eight in defensive rating and Buddy is right about 38% from deep this year. We want access to this game in any way we can find them and Hield really fits the bill on FD especially. 

Caris LeVert ($3,900 FD) – So I said I had almost no interest and that is true on DK. On FD, I might well play LeVert since he’s SO cheap. I understand he hasn’t played with the Pacers and it’s a guess as to how he meshes in the first game. The price is just too low. He’s virtually minimum-price on FD. As long as we believe he plays 20 minutes, I’m likely in so that I can afford multiple studs at other spots. Think of it as LeVert and Lillard for $14,000 and suddenly that sounds pretty solid. 

Honorable Mention – Terry Rozier, Kevin Huerter, Gary Trent 

Small Forward 

Norman Powell ($7,300 DK/$7,600 FD) – Since spending up at small forward doesn’t get higher than this on FD, it could be a popular route. It’s hard to argue either because Powell has been a walking bucket in the four games the Raptors have battled Covid issues. He’s played at least 32 minutes and he’s hit 30 real points in three of four games. The only time he didn’t he still scored 25 so that’s very solid. Powell rocks a 26.6% usage rate over the past two weeks (four games) which is two percent higher than Kyle Lowry. Both teams are top 15 in pace this season and Powell should continue to be the primary scorer for Toronto. 

Gordon Hayward ($7,200 DK/$7,300 FD) – Since there are no expensive options, we can live a little higher at small forward tonight. Hayward and Powell could be a nice mini-stack since both teams play at a high pace and it’s not the Raptors defense is fearsome right now. Hayward’s ceiling isn’t as consistent as it was at the start of the season but the price is lower and he’s still getting a ton of minutes, 35+ when the game stays close. Even with LaMelo Ball having the team lead in FPPM, the 1.07 for Hayward is second and the usage rates are dead even at 24.5%. 

Danilo Gallinari ($5,700 DK/$4,700 FD) – I think there might be some momentum for Bogdan Bogdanovic since he’s much cheaper and playing 18-20 minutes coming back from his injury. Maybe it’s crazy but I feel like Gallo has the safer floor even from the points per dollar perspective. He’s back to playing about 30 minutes and we always love players against the Kings. The metric that really has my hopes up for Gallo is Sacramento gives up the second-highest field goal percentage from three. Even with all his struggles this season, Gallinari is shooting 39.5% from three-point land. This has the makings of a 6-9 game from him and he’ll be on his way. 

Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton

Power Forward 

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – You can say blowout concerns all you like and I understand why. I also don’t care that much because if Washington gets smacked, Giannis is going to be at the center of it. He only played 29 minutes against the Knicks and racked up 54 FD points with a triple-double to boot. If the NBA media didn’t have Giannis Fatigue, he’d be dead center in the MVP discussion right now. The 1.66 FPPM still is massive, as is the 33.4% usage rate. Washington has not a soul on the interior who can do anything but get out of the way. Giannis should have a field day and could be the stud the field anchors to in cash games. 

Chris Boucher ($6,600 DK/$6,700 FD) – Playing Boucher this season has been an adventure. He gets “Nick Nurse’d” some nights and gets very few minutes. Others he just struggles but this night has the earmarks of a massive day. For one, he’s logged 34 and 30 minutes the past two games in part because Toronto is short multiple star players. Charlotte has been vulnerable to big men all season long, ranking 17th in rebounding and 29th in paint points allowed. Boucher is at 4.9 paint touches per game but that should go up tonight and his 1.35 FPPM over the past four games is going to shine tonight. I’d be willing to play him as a center on DK as well. 

Mo Wagner ($3,900 FD) – This is strictly FD only and I have less than zero interest in playing him on DK. Washington needs some type of size to contend with Giannis and crew tonight. I expect Robin Lopez to get some run as well, but Wagner will play enough to consider sub-$4,000. Brook Lopez isn’t as good defensively as he has been in past years and he’s not the best rebounding center on a good day. Wagner can float with him towards the perimeter and I’m not expecting much, but the salary works with a high/low approach with Giannis if you choose. 

Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant (I could see the field being very high on him), Marvin Bagley

Center 

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,600 DK/$9,100 FD) – The FD price is eye-catching, to say the least. I understand that KAT has been a little rough results-wise the past couple of games but goodness. This seems aggressive as far as pricing him down. He still has a 1.39 FPPM on the season to go with a 27.6% usage and now he gets the Enes Kanter Defense on the other side. If I had to bet, I don’t think KAT will be popular in cash but he is a mis-priced player in my eyes. Let’s see what the ownership brings us before we decide. 

Clint Capela ($7,500 DK/$8,300 FD) – I’m not sure there’s a better spot on paper for Capela than right here. It’s one of the reasons I don’t think KAT is needed at all. He can play fast so the pace in this game doesn’t concern me at all. Capela is still a monster in the paint with the second-most touches there per game. Only two players score more points in the paint than Capela and the Kings are 28th in that metric. They are also 25th in rebounding total, so I believe this is the chalk center play on potentially both sites. I love Jokic as much as anyone, but the FD price is exorbitant. Capela is $3,400 cheaper and flirted with 50 FD points on just nine real points last game. He has that style of upside tonight. 

Mason Plumlee ($6,200 DK/$6,100 FD) – The Return of the PlumDawg! He’s not a member of the cash article often but a spot against the Nets gets him on the radar. One thing to keep in mind is (so far) we don’t have the plug-and-play values. Last night, we all knew to play a bunch of Rockets. That team doesn’t exist yet for this slate, so playing multiple or even three studs is murky. 

Players like Plumlee might make an awful lot of sense at this price range and we always like big men against Brooklyn. PlumDawg is quietly 12th in paint touches this season and Brooklyn sits 20th in paint points allowed. On top of that, the 1.05 FPPM is outstanding for the 16.5% usage Plumlee has. These two teams played in February in which Plumlee dropped 51 FD points with a 14/12/7 line. Could he be a super sneaky triple-double candidate? That’s asking a lot but it’s not totally out of the question. 

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12

We’ve got seven games tonight so that in theory means less chaos than Thursday. Of course, that’s just a theory and may not hold up at all. We already know the Sixers will be short-handed tonight and they draw the GOAT opponent for fantasy production in the Wizards. Likely, at least two other teams are also going to feature shortened rotations so let’s dive into the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 and find the green screens! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 Injury Report

Sixers – Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons (O)

NOTE – Simmons does remain out but Embiid has a good chance to play. If he’s active, I would likely fade Tobias Harris (even though I do have him written up in case Biid sits) and focus on Embiid. He’s expensive, but the spot against the Wizards does not get better. On top of that, Embiid should be fairly rested and is looking for a potential MVP award this season.

Cavaliers – Larry Nance, Darius Garland (Q)

Pelicans – JJ Redick (Q)

Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap (Q), Gary Harris (O)

Magic – Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, James Ennis (Q), Cole Anthony (O), and Aaron Gordon wouldn’t be a surprise rest candidate 

Spurs – DeMar DeRozan (O)

Heat – Bam Adebayo (Q) 

Rockets – They could be without five or six players including John Wall, Victor Oladipo, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, and David Nwaba 

Lakers – Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 Positions

Point Guard

Dejounte Murray ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD) – You can play Russell Westbrook if you like and he should have an easier time without Biid and Simmons in for Philly. However, Murray will draw a good deal of attention in this position. With LMA and DDR both out and or not with the team anymore, Murray will take center stage in the Spurs’ offense. His usage is up over 25% and the FPPM is 1.19 across the sample of 266 minutes. Orlando might not be anything special in pace but they are bottom 10 in defensive rating. A player like Murray can fill the stat sheet across the board and the price is very fair. 

Malcolm Brogdon ($6,600 FD) – I’m only listing the FD price because I’m not terribly interested on DK. I’ll just play Murray for $500 less but the FD price is very appealing. It’s not often that we get Brogdon sub-$7,000 and I plan on taking advantage. The individual matchup against Dennis Schroder is very winnable. We do have to admit that the FPPM has slipped considerably to 1.08 but the usage is still massive at 27.4%. With Caris LeVert still not ready to make his Pacers debut, this offense runs through Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis. The Lakers are missing defensive anchor Anthony Davis and now Marc Gasol, making life a lot easier on opponents. Brogdon drives about 15 times per game and the path is there for a big game, especially at $6,600. 

Shake Milton ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – He didn’t start last night but I honestly am not bothered by that at all. He’s still going to see plenty of minutes and the Sixers are missing a TON of offensive firepower without Biid and Simmons. To wit, Shake has played 270 minutes without those two and has a usage rate of over 30%. That’s massive and even if that’s because he’s a bench player, all the better. Having that high of usage and a 1.11 FPPM is always going to play and even more so when the matchup is against Washington’s highest pace in the NBA. 

Honorable Mention – John Wall (could be without Dipo), Mike Conley, Michael Carter-Williams 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,700 DK) – I won’t really be playing him on FD and in honesty, I doubt he makes my cash lineup. Frankly, he just doesn’t draw enough attention to be popular most nights. Not having Simmons is a huge boost for a player like Beal. Simmons has a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. Beal should be able to have a field day against a Philly team that played last night. He scored a very disappointing 40 DK points last game but went 6-22 from the field and only scored 21 real points. That’s not happening again and he’s under $10,000 on DK. That’s enough for me. I think this game stays closer than say, the Utah game. Donovan Mitchell looks great in a pace-up spot but that could be a blowout scenario and I’d use him in GPP-only tonight. 

Note – Beal popped up questionable as I finished writing him up because of course, he did. If he’s out, Westbrook just takes center stage and we’ll use the model for the secondary plays. 

Collin Sexton ($8,100 DK/$7,800 FD) – We play guards against the Pelicans and that goes double when they are ball-dominant guards like Sexton. I do have some sort of mental block when I see him over $8,000 on DK but the FD price is much more sensical. With Sexton, he’s an odd bird. The FPPM doesn’t look like anything crazy great at 0.98 but the usage is over 29%. He’s also shown ceiling with back-to-back 55+ DK point games before the break. He’s up to fifth in minutes per game on the season and that helps mitigate the FPPM. If there’s a slate to land on him for the ceiling play, this is one of them. 

Seth Curry ($5,000 FD) – Over on DK, I’d likely play someone like Derrick White since the Spurs will be short and he’s cheaper. Curry is a little pricey on DK at $5,600 but he’ll play over 30 minutes without fail. The Wizards are giving up the fourth-highest field goal percentage from deep and Sous Chef is shooting almost 45% from beyond the arc this season. He’s too cheap in a fast-paced game with added opportunity and he won’t be the last Sixers either. 

Honorable Mention – Victor Oladipo (I’d bet he has a high chance of sitting on a back-to-back), Lonnie Walker

Small Forward 

Jimmy Butler ($9,200 DK/$9,600 FD) – Most of you know that I’m not much for the narrative plays, but Jimmy Buckets back in Chicago is a big exception. He’s a former Bull and has played them four times with 63, 36, 50, and 43 DK point results. The 36 is noteworthy because Butler was with the Sixers at that point, so it was a crowded team. With this version of the Heat, he is the offense and that’s going to be more the case if Bam Adebayo continues to sit out. Without the big man, Buckets is sitting at a 28.7% usage and an outrageous 1.54 FPPM. He’s a triple-double threat most nights right now and there’s a bonus narrative. These two teams are only a couple of games apart in seeding in the East. The games are growing more important with each passing day and Butler will have the chip on his shoulder tonight. 

Micheal Porter Jr. ($6,700 FD) – The DK price has gotten out of control and we’ll have to see if the Nuggets get Green and/or Millsap back tonight. If they don’t, MPJ will be in line for about 30 minutes once again and the price is acceptable on FD since we need two. He’s worked himself up to a 1.02 FPPM when the Nuggets are on the short rotation, which isn’t too bad. Memphis is up to ninth in pace this year so that’s a big upgrade over 27th for the Nuggets. I’m never in love with MPJ in cash but he makes sense on FD, even if I’m likely to head further down the salary ladder tonight. 

Justise Winslow ($4,500 DK/$4,700 FD) – This is interesting because I’m looking at Kevin Porter o some degree as well. He made his debut last night for the Rockets but this is being written before that game tips so I’m unsure on his role yet. What we’re not unsure of is the role Winslow has on the Grizzlies squad. I know Grayson Allen could be back but that’s not going to totally kill the 24% usage rate Winslow has had off the bench so far. Memphis reportedly really likes him since coming over from Miami and wants to integrate him into this team. As long as that’s the case and he’s this cheap, we can continue to play him. 

Honorable Mention – LeBron James

Power Forward 

Domantas Sabonis ($9,800 DK/$9,000 FD) – There’s a red number on DK for the matchup tonight for Sabonis, but that’s very misleading. As I mentioned with Brogdon, the interior of the Lakers defense is extremely vulnerable right now and I’m here for it. Sabonis is fresh off a well-deserved All-Star Game and has a usage rate of just under 26% with a 1.27 FPPM. He also sports the seventh-most paint touches and the 10th most attempts in the paint. Add that to his fourth-most minutes per game and this is quietly a dynamite spot for the Pacers big man. He’s also more affordable after he was sitting in the five digits before the break, which is a nice bonus. 

Tobias Harris ($8,300 DK/$7,800 FD) – FD at least tried to price him up for tonight, unlike last night, so that’s noteworthy. Regardless, he gets the same Washington matchup we talked about in the Shake Milton blurb and the field will go right back to Harris. They should, considering his usage is 29.6% and the FPPM leads the team at 1.22. The Wizards are in the bottom five in defensive rating and there’s not much else to break down about why Harris will be very, very popular tonight. 

Rudy Gay ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – It’s not often that we have two Spurs in cash but they’ll be missing two vital components to their lineup. Enter Gay, who sports a usage rate of 24.6% and a 1.03 FPPM. He played nearly 27 minutes last game and there’s no reason to not expect that again since DDR would be missing. The Magic are fourth in rebounding on the season and Gay is going to need to help on the glass as he averages over five boards per game. The price is getting up there to feel completely comfortable but this slate is a good spot to use him. 

Honorable Mention – Zion Williamson 

Center 

Nikola Vucevic ($10,300 DK/$9,900 FD) – I would be on Vuc if the Magic are still down multiple starters. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross sat yesterday and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Aaron Gordon sat tonight. He just missed weeks with an ankle injury. If that’s the case, Vucevic is going to have to carry this Magic squad and we did just see the ghost of Kristaps Porzingis go 28/14 on these Spurs. The price is high but that’s what happens when a player has a 34% usage and a 1.56 FPPM. Orlando needs him on the glass since San Antonio is 10th in rebounds and it’s a great spot for Vuc. 

Kelly Olynyk ($5,700 DK/$4,500 FD) – I would be a little surprised if Bam plays tonight for the Heat. I mean, he just had a long break and still couldn’t make it back last night. That means Kelly O should draw another start and against the Bulls, we should be super interested. I would go so far as to say he’s the chalk since the Bulls have such issues on the interior. He doesn’t look like anything special with Bam on the court since he has a 0.87 FPPM but that’s plenty for the price. Additionally, Chicago is average in rebounding and 29th in paint points allowed. This is a perfect spot and on FD he is far, far too cheap if Bam is out. 

Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic (more on DK), Rudy Gobert, Justin Patton

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Core Four Thursday 3/10

The NBA is back on Wednesday after a long All-Star Break but we only have two games tonight. Brian pointed it out in the awesome Picks and Pivots, but here’s a significant difference in the way Vegas views this game as the Wizards game sports a 237 over/under compared to just 222.5 for the Mavericks game. Additionally, it has a smaller spread of just three points so I’m focusing the majority of my lineup on that game for the Core Four Thursday 3/10!

Core Four Thursday 3/10

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member One 

Ja Morant ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – Buckle up for basically a full stack of this game. I’m not sure if I’m playing Luka at this juncture. He is projected to be the highest-rostered player on the slate but this slate also lacks a lot of real value. Instead, I’ll start with Ja in a better game environment. Morant has been a little tough to peg this season. The last two games before the break saw him score 35 real points and 50+ DK and one of them came against this Wizards team. In the previous three, he didn’t clear 36 DK so there’s volatility here. 

Still, this is an obvious ceiling spot. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and they have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. Russell Westbrook also leads the league in turnovers per game at 4.8 so Ja could get a couple of easy steals. He leads the team with nearly a 29% usage rate and here’s where it gets very interesting. Ja is second in frequency as the pick and roll ball handler. Washington gives up the fourth-most points per game to that play type. All of this adds up to an elite spot for Morant. 

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member Two

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100 DK/$7,000 FD) – My Name Is Jonas is back in the Core and the last game against Washington was pretty misleading. We look and see that he only had 35 DK and maybe you would think he’s overpriced. However, he hit a snag with fouls in the first half and scored just 10 DK points. That means the second half he hit 25 DK and that’s the kind of ceiling we’d be looking for. The big man leads the Grizzlies with a 1.25 FPPM and scores 1.04 points per possession as the pick and roll man. The Wizards give up 7.1 points per game to that play type, meaning not only are both JoVal and Morant great plays but they correlate well on top of it. Those two players carry the highest correlation on the Grizzlies. Add in that Washington is 26th in paint boards and points allowed while JoVal is fifth in paint touches means this is a smash spot from every facet. 

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member Three

Justise Winslow ($3,900 DK/$4,800 FD) – This will be the last Grizzlies player and if there’s a time to stack against the Wizards, it’s on a two-game slate with a big over/under. Winslow hasn’t been spectacular coming back from a major injury and is only playing about 20 minutes per night. That end isn’t ideal but the usage is. Across his 134 minutes of court time, Winslow has a 24.2% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM. That’s with an abysmal 41.7% true shooting rate, which isn’t surprising since he missed so much time. I’m more than willing to play someone that has that style of usage at this price and Grayson Allen still being out doesn’t hurt either. 

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member Four 

Bradley Beal/Russell Westbrook – I’m cheating a bit because I think there’s a split between these two players depending on the site you play. On FD, Westbrook is projected to be much higher rostered since he’s still under $10,000 there. Beal is the second-most expensive player on FD and will not likely be as popular or needed. These two have such a high usage rate that they can be played together. Both sit over 30% on the season and Westy is at a 1.41 FPPM despite the true shooting rate of 48.4%. Westbrook is still a threat to triple-double every single night right now and the Wizards are pushing for a playoff spot.

On DK, Beal makes a little more sense to my eyes since he’s cheaper. His true shooting is nearing 60% and his usage is spiked at 35.6%, which leads the league. He’ll actually be rostered tonight on a short slate but the NBA’s leading scorer is disrespected on a nightly basis for being rostered. Much like Ja and JoVal, Westy and Beal correlate very well together because they are the whole offense. Everything flows through them so my plan is to have exposure to both and play them together tonight in various lineups. I will likely be underweight on Luka and just hope this game goes nuts since I’m only playing GPP tonight. 

Core Four Thursday 3/4

You’re likely looking at the size of the slate and wondering why I’m not writing the cash article like normal. It’s not me being lazy but rather pragmatic. The slate before teams leave for the All-Star Break is volatile and I’m not sure I can stress that enough. We’re talking late scratches, lower minutes in a rotation, all that fun stuff. To me, I wouldn’t touch cash tonight as it’s not the best investment with the bankroll. I’m sticking to a light night in the bankroll, playing GPP’s, and following my Core Four Thursday 3/4 to try and find the green screens tonight! 

Core Four Thursday 3/4

Core Four Thursday 3/4 – Member One 

Paul George ($8,600 DK/$7,600 FD) – I’m going to assume that Kawhi Leonard is out tonight, as there’s no need for the Clippers to push him in this contest. On the flip side, Washington dug a big hole to start the season and can’t afford the luxury of giving away games by sitting Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. So that means game on and PG13 is going to be the focal point of the Clippers without Kawhi. He sports a 33.3% usage rate and a 1.26 FPPM without Kawhi. We all know Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and are 27th in defensive rating. The fact PG is too cheap with Kawhi in makes him a slam dunk if Kawhi is out. 

Core Four Thursday 3/4 – Member Two 

Julius Randle ($9,600 DK/$9,300 FD) – It’s March in the year 2021 and the Knicks are 0.5 games out of fourth place in the East. That’s right, the New York Knicks are right there for home-court advantage in round one of the postseason. Times are wild, friends. There’s some pull to go to Nikola Jokic or Giannis tonight and we’ll almost surely get value to go there if we want. Randle just saw this Pistons frontcourt and dropped over 50 DK and that’s well in the range tonight. The FD price is far too cheap while the DK is fair. I never thought I’d see Randle sitting at a 27.7% usage and a 1.31 FPPM for a playoff team, but here we are. 

Core Four Thursday 3/4 – Member Three

Kendrick Nunn ($5,700 DK/$5,800 FD) – I’ll change this if we need to but I would have to think Jimmy Butler doesn’t play tonight. He’s missed the past two games and why play him? Miami is right back in the thick of things so they can afford to not force Buckets to play. Well, we all know that we love guards against the Pelicans. We like them, even more, when New Orleans played last night and Nunn has the ability to torch them in this spot. We’re one game removed from Nunn scoring 24 real points against Atlanta. He took 15 shots and then 12 in the last game, only hitting three. I’m betting that doesn’t happen again. Nunn has a 23% usage without Butler and the ceiling is over 40 DK points. 

Core Four Thursday 3/4 – Member Four 

De’Aaron Fox ($8,900 DK/$5,800 FD) – I get it, this play doesn’t leave us a ton in salary but the value will come through the day. If by chance it doesn’t, we can make a change. Fox stands out as both of these teams are on a back-to-back and both run and gun. The Blazers and Kings are 28th and 30th in defensive rating on the season. Players from this game are priced pretty high but they should be. We need to get a piece of it somewhere and Fox is nearly $2,000 cheaper than Dame on both sites. I’d rather take my shots here since Fox averages a 29.8% usage and a 1.20 FPPM. The sky is the limit here. 

Thank you for reading my Core Four Thursday 3/4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3

As things stand right now, we have a big 10 game slate and we’re almost to the All-Star Break. We also could have a massive piece of injury news as Luka Doncic is listed as questionable, which opens up all sorts of avenues. Let’s dig into what we like and what we want to target in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 and find those green screens! 

What We Look For In Cash Games

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 Injury Report

Pacers – Jeremy Lamb, Doug McDermott (Q)

Sixers – Tobias Harris (Q)

Pistons – Jerami Grant (Q)

Raptors – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby (O)

Nets – KD (O), Jeff Green, TLC (Q)

Rockets – Christian Wood, David Nwaba (O), Eric Gordon, Danuel House (Q)

Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (O), Gordon Hayward, Cody Zeller (O)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Cam Reddish (Q)

Magic – Evan Fournier (Q), James Ennis (O)

Thunder – Hamidou Diallo, George Hill (O)

Mavericks – Luka, Willie Cauley-Stein (Q)

Lakers – Marc Gasol (O), Kyle Kuzma was out last night. LeBron James OUT.

Pelicans – Tyrese Haliburton, Hassan Whiteside (O), Buddy Hield (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 Positions

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,900 DK/$9,900 FD) – We all love the late-night hammer and Curry is under $10,000 on both sites. That’s good enough and the Blazers give up a three-point attempt almost 40% of the time. We then have the Narrative of Steph against Dame, as they share similar traits as players. Steph is all the way up to a 1.45 FPPM and a 31.5% usage rate on the season on top of everything else. Portland is 28th in defensive rating and a player of Curry’s caliber can light them up. Just look at what LaMelo Ball did last game when he dropped 60 DK. 

Kyle Lowry ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD) – I would think that Curry is going to be more of a GPP pick because the field will gravitate towards Lowry. Toronto is very short-handed tonight without FVV and Siakam on the offensive end, meaning Lowry has the entire offense on his shoulders. What’s interesting is the FPPM is relatively stagnant at 1.18 but the usage skyrockets by 8.2% to 29.5%. The true shooting is at 55.5% which isn’t that bad but the matchup against Dennis Smith and the Pistons backcourt is pristine. Lowry rocks an assist rate over 45% in this scenario and I would think is a bedrock of cash builds tonight. 

Dennis Schroeder ($5,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – With AD still out, Schroeder still should get plenty of love in this spot. He’s under $6,000 and draws one of the best matchups we get in the Sacramento Kings (+4). They still rank eighth in pace and dead last in defensive rating. With the Lakers all the way down at 23rd in pace, this is an elite spot for Schroeder to show off his scoring skills. LeBron James can’t do it all and now they are down Marc Gasol as well. That leaves Schroeder with a 24.6% usage and a 1.05 FPPM over 140 minutes, which is perfect against the Kings. Honorable Mention – Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, LaMelo Ball, Michael Carter-Williams 

Shooting Guard

James Harden ($11,000 DK/$11,200 FD) – There’s going to be a ton of value in this game with the Rockets short-handed and the Raptors, so don’t overthink this one. Play. James. Harden. It’s the first time he’s back in Houston after dogging his way out. He’s going to show off as much as he possibly can. If you’ve read my stuff for a while, you know narratives aren’t my thing at all. There are some that even I cannot ignore and this is it. I will be totally shocked if he’s not the biggest chalk on the slate. Unless he’s projected for zero ownership, he needs to be in the cash build end of the discussion in my eyes. 

Anthony Edwards ($6,900 DK/$6,400 FD) – Edwards is a fascinating candidate tonight. I believe I’d only play him in cash settings on FD since I need two. On DK, that price is scary but there’s a catch. He’s shot 24-64 over the past three games and not dipped below 35 DK. If Edwards hits a game where the shot really falls, he could shatter this price tag. The sheer volume of shots right now is impressive enough and the usage is up to 32.5% in the Wolves’ current situation. He’s going to have a monster game sooner or later and I’m here for it against the Hornets as both teams are in the top 12 in pace. 

DeAndre Bembry ($3,700 DK/$3,800 FD) – Writing the night before means this is a bit of a leap of faith. It should also be noted that Bembry is only SF on DK. Since the Raptors are so thin, Bembry will almost surely start and play big minutes. He has an 82-minute sample size in this current situation and also has a 0.95 FPPM. I’m not fully counting on that since the true shooting is over 73% but I’m approaching it in this way – Bembry + Harden should get you at least 80 fantasy points. That’s around a floor of 5.5x at their salaries with room for over 6x. That’s what we’re looking for every night. 

Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FD mostly), Terry Rozier (if Hayward is out), Gary Trent, Sterling Brown

Small Forward 

Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,300 FD) – So there are a couple of notes here. First, you can absolutely go with Brandon Ingram. He is in a smash spots, to say the least (we’ll get into the Pelicans spot in a minute) and Ingram is underpriced. Secondly, we’re starting with Powell because I believe he could be the chalkiest play of the slate and I won’t bring up the Raptors anymore. The other aspect here – with LeBron James OUT – it could push THT ($3.4K) into another chalky forward option.

Powell has played about 40 minutes with the current Raptors spot and he’s sporting a massive 33.2% usage rate. Someone other than Lowry has to score tonight and they should be neck and neck for being the primary scorer tonight. They’re both going to have a usage over 30% and you can easily play 2-3 Raptors in cash tonight. 

Note – We need some news with Luka before deciding what path to take for this position. Josh Richardson would be a smash play at just $4,600 on FD. Granted, the FPPM looks rough at just 0.61 but the usage is nearly 20% and the true shooting is pitiful at 44.2%. If Luka plays, we can just rock Powell and Ingram and potentially be done with things. 

Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier (if active), Malik Monk (if Hornets are down to 8-9 players)

Power Forward

Zion Williamson ($9,100 DK/$8,900 FD) – It can be argued that last game was the toughest spot Zion could have since he faced off against Rudy Gobert in the paint. All Zion did was hang 26/10/5 on him and the Jazz and the matchup gets way easier tonight. We pick on the Bulls constantly and Zion is up to over eight paint points per game. Chicago is 29th in paint points allowed and Zion should totally dominate inside. He and Ingram score roughly 50 of 115 Pelican points per night, meaning we can play them both as they both sit over a 27% usage rate on the year. The pace the Bulls play at will do nothing but help Zion go Hulk Smash tonight. 

Marvin Bagley ($6,600 DK/$6,200 FD) – I’m slightly gun shy on DK but the FD price is much more palatable. Luke Walton is a (to be polite) not great head coach and doesn’t always play Bagley as much as he should. When he does, Bagley typically smashes and this spot might be better than it appears. Not only is Anthony Davis not there to stop him, but Marc Gasol is out as well. I like Montrezl Harrell as a player but he’s not a defender to fear. Bagley continues to sport a 23.5% usage rate and a 1.05 FPPM, making him a nice play at an iffy position tonight. 

Nicholas Claxton ($3,300 DK/$4,100 FD) – I’ve taken to calling him Speedy Claxton in Discord after the Rob and Big episode where they name a turtle Speedy Claxton. He’s a C-only player on DK but is still near minimum price. that’s a mistake and Claxton was just under 18 minutes last game. If Jeff Green is in, maybe we back off here but Houston has no presence at the center position. Even in very limited minutes, Claxton could pile up the points in a hurry. He’s only played four games but has a 21% usage and a 1.25 FPPM. He’s well worth the small risk at this price if Green is out. Even if he’s in, I’m going to be tempted. 

Honorable Mention – Domantas Sabonis, Kristaps Porzingis (only if Luka is out for cash games), Draymond Green, Chris Boucher

Center 

Karl Anthony-Towns ($10,000 DK/$9,700 FD) – The cash move will very likely not be spending up at center but if we do, KAT is that man for me. He draws the Charolette frontcourt that we love to pick on and KAT is at a 1.44 FPPM right now. His usage continues to hover around 32% and the Hornets are 20th in rebounding and 28th in points allowed in the paint. This is a total smash spot for the big man, although as I mentioned I doubt we need him in cash games.

Al Horford ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD) – I will always be upfront and I’ll tell you right now, I hate playing Horford. He’s the definition of a boring play and I won’t use him unless I feel like I have to for cash. Just like KAT I have a feeling that’s not going to be the case tonight. The move is likely punting (we’re getting there) so Horford won’t fit. However, if the field does go to him it is a good spot. Dallas has little interior presence and no player on the Thunder has a higher FPPM than Horford’s 1.27. Even the usage rate is over 24% so he can be on the radar, but I’m not attached at all. 

Justin Patton ($4,000 DK/$3,800 FD) – After Powell, Lowry, and Harden, Patton will most likely be a top-five chalk play tonight. We actually could be looking at the Cash Core in those four players. Patton only has five games under his belt so far but in the past two games, he’s been on the court for 26 and 31 minutes. In that time, he’s produced at least 20 fantasy points and this is among the best spot he could have. Its centers against Brooklyn and Patton has a 0.84 FPPM so far. With the Nets 25th in paint points allowed, this is a phenomenal spot to play Patton and follow the field tonight. 

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Nikola Vucevic, Mason Plumlee, Wendell Carter

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!