NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/22

We have another six game slate tonight, at least that’s what is scheduled. There are a few teams that are really at the outer limits of players on the roster to play a game so we will need to see how the day unfolds. It’s still a wild environment in the league but the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/22 is here to lay out the paths to green screens as things stand right now. 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Magic vs. Hawks 

Magic 

This will likely be the game that the field hones in on for the value plays on the night. For the Orlando side, they are still without a ton of players and both Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. are questionable. Even if they both play, Robin Lopez is still insanely cheap and his matchup got a lot easier. Over the past week, Lopez has a usage rate of 23.6% and 0.95 fantasy points per minute. We can also continue to turn to Chuma Okeke, Gary Harris, and Franz Wagner as that trio is all sitting at 0.99 fantasy points per minute or higher. These guys are on the court for 35 minutes a night right now and we just need the Anthony and Carter news to know how many Magic players to play. 

Hawks 

I referenced Lopez’s matchup being easier and that’s because Clint Capela has joined Trae Young and Danilo Gallinari in protocols. The main players to be looking at here are Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, and John Collins. There is also a possibility that we can punt with Lou Williams and Onyeka Okongwu but those will need to be backed by the model. Okongwu just came back from a shoulder injury but this is a high draft pick that should play a few more minutes tonight. 

Huerter and Collins are likely to be the main focus of the field as well because someone has to take over ball-handling duties and Collins isn’t fighting Capela for rebounds and paint opportunities. That could go to Delon Wright too but I feel less sure about that. One of the keys is going to be Bogdan Bogdanovic because he’s probable for this game but hasn’t played in about a month. He’s not likely to play a ton of minutes right away, so we could see Sweet Lou make an appearance. Regardless, they will be down to eight players that have played any type of meaningful minutes so far this year against a Magic team that is playing a lot of backups. 

Clippers vs. Kings 

Clippers

The Clips are basically healthy except for Marcus Morris and Isaiah Hartenstein are both out. With Paul George back, he is in play but was a little rusty in his first game back and did only play 30 minutes. I’ll never tell you to not play him, especially with facing the team that is top-five in pace and bottom-five in defensive rating. He has a 35.7% usage and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. Ivica Zubac is also in play since he’s in line for close to 30 minutes with no Hartenstein. He only played 27 minutes in the last game and still scored 35 DraftKings points. 

Kings 

Hello Tyrese Haliburton. We were just reminded about primary ball handlers against the Clippers when Dejounte Murray went bonkers and Haliburton has similar points per dollar upside. He’s not likely to triple-double but he’s logged a double-double of at least 10 assists and 21 points in all three games without De’Aaron Fox. As a side note, his points+assist prop is of great interest tonight as well. Since the Kings went sideways with their roster, Haliburton has 1.25 fantasy points per minute and he’s up to a 24.8% usage rate. 

The rest of Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, and Chimzie Metu are all in play but are starting to get a little pricey. For Hield, his true shooting is 71.6% in the past three games but his fantasy points per minute are still under .90. We could also get Richaun Holmes back in the mix so that could have a negative effect on Metu. Regardless, Haliburton is one of my favorite targets on the slate tonight. 

Teams to Target 

Raptors – It’s easier to say the names we know that will be active for Toronto as opposed to who’s out – 

OG Anunoby

Chris Boucher

Yuta Watanabe

Svi Mykhailiuk

Possibly Khem Birch 

That’s it, that’s the list. This would be the team that is in the most danger to get postponed if they do not get reinforcements for this contest. Let’s make sure this game is a full-go but there is massive value to be had. 

Cavaliers – This will be the first game they’ve played without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. I would assume that Kevin Love could slide into the starting lineup and through 116 minutes without those two on the floor, Love has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.49 fantasy points per minute. That’s a lot to expect but he’s only $5,700 and is in my pool. Lauri Markkanen is also there but I may just want to save the money and play Love. 

Studs 

Nikola Jokic, Paul George, Jrue Holiday, Tyrese Haliburton (lock for me)

Popular Teams 

Magic, Hawks, Raptors, Kings, maybe the Bucks and Cavs 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/19

We continue to forge ahead in the NBA and even last night was a challenge. A backbone of our lineups was ruled out around 15 minutes before his game started and that’s been about how everything has gone lately. We’re going to stick with the same format as last night and it’s another reminder to please join the Discord if you haven’t yet because that’s how we were able to get away from Jrue Holiday last night. We have nine games tonight and I’m sure there will be even more grenades to dodge in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/19 so let’s get rolling!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Nuggets vs. Nets 

Nuggets 

On the Denver side, there is not currently a lot to dissect past Nikola Jokic is going to be popular. We have plenty of value, the Nets have virtually nothing on the interior to slow him down, and he can rack up fantasy points in a hurry with nearly 1.80 fantasy points per minute. Jokic is second in post-up points per game on the season at 5.2. The spread is not up yet but that will be worth keeping an eye on with Brooklyn so short and on a back-to-back. 

Nets 

It almost seems unfair that the Nets have to play again and last night, all of David Duke, Kessler Edwards, Blake Griffin, Cam Thomas, and Patty Mills played a minimum of 32 minutes. Everyone that wasn’t named Griffin played over 35 and I’m not sure how they can do it again. Griffin and Mills are not spring chickens. Mills and Thomas both took at least 20 shots and it seems clear they would be the triggermen. With the perimeter defense of Denver not being all that great, that should be in line to repeat. The other trio all took at least 13 shots and I do wonder if Shaq Harrison, Langston Galloway, and James Ennis get more involved. If Mills and Blake see fewer minutes, they have to come from somewhere. As of tonight, my main three are Thomas, Duke, and Edwards. That trio is still plenty cheap to have meat on the bone to hit 40+ DraftKings points and be a value. 

Spurs vs. Kings 

Spurs 

Much like the Nuggets, the Spurs aren’t the main targets in this game because they have (knock on wood) not dealt very much with the protocols yet. Now, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are certainly in play. Sacramento plays a top-five pace and they are 29th in defensive rating. It’s a great spot for all three of those players and Murray should be on triple-double watch again. 

Kings 

With much of the Kings roster still in protocols right now, they are going to be a popular team to choose players from. Tyrese Haliburton will headline the group as he played almost 38 minutes and his full skill-set was on display. He scored 21 points, dished 10 assists, and grabbed six rebounds. The shocking part was that came on a 19.6% usage while Harrison Barnes and Chimezie Metu both were over 23% in usage. The disappointment was Buddy Hield because he only took 10 shots. 10! I don’t think that sticks so he’s still in play but with the salaries, Haliburton and Metu would be the primary targets. 

Lakers vs. Bulls 

Lakers 

LA is coming off a game where the T-Wolves ran them off the court and they lost Anthony Davis for the next month. They are only sixth in the West and four games ahead of the last play-in spot. He’s not been the most consistent player this season, but it’s time for LeBron James to flex his muscles. When Davis is off the floor, James has 1.38 fantasy points per minute and a 29.9% usage rate while Russell Westbrook is over 29% and 1.16. If you’re not playing Jokic, James could be next on the list and I’m not really looking at the other Lakers since we have other teams that are shorthanded. 

Bulls 

Chicago is finally going to get some health back in the lineup as DeMar DeRozan is out of protocols while Zach LaVine is still out. In that scenario, DDR has a 36.3% usage and 1.33 fantasy points per minute and he’s not expected to face any restrictions coming back. Nikola Vucevic is also going to be an issue for the Lakers to defend with no AD and Vuc has 1.19 fantasy points per minute and 30.6% for the usage. He can pop out to the three-point line and he averages 5.3 paint touches. One of those two is in the running for a spend-up option tonight. 

Honorable Mention

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

The main piece to highlight from this game is Karl-Anthony Towns. As we sit Saturday night, KAT is one of my highest priorities on this slate. Since Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards, KAT has 1.55 fantasy points per minute and a usage pushing 34%. While he’s not a huge factor in the paint all the time, Dallas is 23rd and 24th in rebounds allowed in the paint and points. He’s going to be able to do whatever he’d like in this game. Luka Doncic is still out for Dallas, but Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Brunson are viable but about as expensive as they can get. 

Spend Up Options 

Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, LeBron James, Dejounte Murray, Dear DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic 

Value Options

Cam Thomas, David Duke Jr., Kessler Edwards, Chimezie Metu, whatever else comes up during the day

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/18

Well, that Friday in the NBA was out of this world. It was utter chaos throughout the entire day but Ghos and I are committed to bringing you guys the best content possible. In that vein, we’re going to try a different format temporarily until things settle down in the NBA. The league has made clear they want teams to sign players from the couch as opposed to moving games around, so we’re in it for the next little bit. For now, we’ll be highlighting game environments and situations to monitor. I simply cannot stress this enough – 

The Discord is the most vital piece of content right now and if you haven’t joined, please come in.

Even if you don’t want to send messages, that’s more than fine. The quickest way to get the news to you is the Discord right now. We can relay important news in seconds because oftentimes it comes in the hour or so leading up to lock. NBA DFS is unlike any other sport in that the injury reports change often, especially right now. We have a six-game slate tonight that is already jam-packed with news, so let’s ride with NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/18!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Magic vs. Nets 

Magic 

After losing Wendell Carter Jr. last night to a knee injury that looked significant, the Magic could really be struggling. They had to sign four G-League players yesterday just to get to tip-off, but they were without Cole Anthony. Assuming Anthony can play and no other player exits the protocols, Orlando would have Anthony, Chuma Okeke, Robin Lopez, Gary Harris, and Franz Wagner as the primary five players. Only three others (Hassani Gravett, Mychal Mulder, and B.J. Johnson) played over 20 minutes last night. Given the salaries involved, the entire starting five would be in play and strong targets. Okeke especially will be heavy chalk because he went for 50+ DraftKings points at 45% rostership last night. I would be looking to play a minimum of two Magic players and may go up to 3-4, pending the rest of the slate. These guys would be looking at nearly 40 minutes and Anthony should flirt with a 35% usage rate. Meanwhile, Wagner and Okeke should be taking 18+ shot attempts and the Brooklyn defense is going to be nonexistent with half their roster out for this game. 

Nets 

Let’s start with who we know is playing and those who are out. Kevin Durant and Patty Mills have been ruled out, which is somewhat surprising just with who is available for Brooklyn. Now, it’s possible that they know players could test out of the protocol and that would change the complexion of the roster. For now, Blake Griffin, Kessler Edwards, and Cam Thomas are the only three that have played minutes in the last game that do not carry an injury designation. With Durant out, Thomas could turn into the gunner here and just shoot whenever he has an opening. Nic Claxton and David Duke Jr. are questionable but it’s tough to see how they don’t play at this point. With the Magic legitimately rostering G-League players as well, we can target Thomas, Griffin, and Edwards for sure. Duke Jr. and Claxton would certainly fit in and it’s hard to even gauge the usage rates for anyone. Durant and James Harden run this team and the majority of these guys weren’t seeing the floor. One thing for sure is they will have extremely limited bodies to play and I believe we need a minimum of four players from this game. 

Knicks vs. Celtics 

Knicks

It could wind up being Miles McBride SZN in this game. Derrick Rose, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, and Quentin Grimes are either out or questionable. That would leave the Knicks with Julius Randle, Alec Burks, and Evan Fournier as the core three starters alongside the duo of Nerlens Noel and Mitchell Robinson. We know Thibs Gonna Thibs and he will run these guys into the ground. The starting five is likely to play a minimum of 35 minutes. Once again, the samples with even a couple of players out are so small it’s hard to read. Randle had over 42% usage but we’re talking about a sample under 20 minutes. For McBride, it’s 28.1% and these are mostly believable, even if they come down by 5% or so. McBride is so cheap that 30 minutes of even a 20% usage would make plenty of sense. Randle still comes off as expensive, and I think I’d mostly use New York for value and anchor to a different stud. Well, stud may be downgraded tonight since the elite salary range is so barren but the idea remains the same. 

Celtics 

Boston is down multiple rotation players with Al Horford and Dennis Schroeder being the players that log the most minutes. That meant Jayson Tatum played a whopping 42 minutes last night and Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown joined him with at least 33 minutes played. Schroeder would have a shot to play tonight because his illness was not Covid, but we’ll see if that happens or not. If he’s off the floor again, Tatum has a usage rate of 35.7% and 1.31 fantasy points per minute while Brown matches with a 32.8% usage in a much shorter sample. They are in flux but Tatum is under $10,000 and there is a strong chance Brown could sit on a back-to-back with only two games under his belt with the hamstring injury. It could be the Tatum show solo or with Schroeder as a sidekick, while Williams is a strong mid-range target at center. These two games could make up the bulk of the player pool with how thin the four teams could be. 

Teams To Monitor 

Warriors 

They had suggested Steph Curry was going to sit the Pacers game earlier in the week. He was too close to breaking the 3-point record to actually do it, so there is the chance he could be out tonight. However, Golden State lost Jordan Poole to protocols so it’s unclear if they’ll sit Steph now. If they do, get ready for chalk Andrew Wiggins night, and honestly… I may play him without Poole and Curry if that turns out to be the case. Somehow, Wiggins only has 43 minutes on the court with those two off but he has a 33.6% usage rate and he’s under $7,000. 

Jazz 

They played last night so Mike Conley is a candidate to sit tonight since he played over 30 minutes last night. If he does, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, and Jordan Clarkson would be on the radar. When he’s off, Mitchell is at a 35% usage and 1.37 fantasy points per minute while Clarkson is almost at 27%. It does need to be said that Ingles has had a rough season to some extent and his fantasy points per minute are just 0.68 on a 50.4% true shooting rate. Still, $3,800 could be useful although I’d put all the other value ahead of him. 

Bucks 

If Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Bobby Portis all remain out, Jrue Holiday will continue to be a lock in my lineups. He went for over 40 real points last night and I tend to doubt DeMarcus Cousins plays tonight. That means Jordan Nwora, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton would be in line for close to 35 minutes or more. Even for a six-game slate, the player pool might be very condensed tonight. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/16

We are back to a small slate tonight with just four games but like Tuesday, there is one team that is going to be the focal point of our lineups once again. The Brooklyn Nets need to take up 2-4 spots in the lineup so we’ll be breaking them down and then a shorter positional breakdown. Let’s get to work to cover our bases in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/16 and forge the path the green screens once again! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Brooklyn Nets – The first move for tonight’s slate is to go put Kevin Durant in your lineups. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Lock him in and come back, then we’ll discuss everyone else. 

In the past two games without James Harden, Durant has scored over 70 DraftKings points and he’s played over 40 minutes. On the season without Harden, Durant has a 36% usage and 1.73 fantasy points per minute. It really is that simple, and Philly has nobody to defend him. With how shorthanded they are, Brooklyn will have no option to not play Durant for another 40 minutes. 

It would appear the trio of David Duke, Patty Mills, and Blake Griffin would be the next players in consideration. All three of these guys played 30 minutes or more and scored over 30 DraftKings points. Duke managed to eclipse 40 DK despite shooting just 4-13. Mills feels a little pricey in this one even though he took 20 shots, as he had to shoot 50% from deep to score 30 points. He did virtually nothing else and at $6,600, an off shooting night could destroy the lineup. 

The last trio of Nic Claxton, Kessler Edwards, and Cam Thomas gets tougher. Firstly, I am not very likely to use Claxton if Embiid plays for Philly in a back-to-back. Embiid could get him to foul right off the court, but if Biid sits that’s a different story. Edwards played 38 minutes to 22 for Thomas, but Edwards shot 7-12 while Thomas shot 2-10. If the shooting turns around, I don’t wonder if Thomas gets more minutes in this game but both seem very risky. 

Priority – Durant, Duke, Griffin, Thomas, Edwards, Mills, Claxton (unless Embiid sits)

Point Guard 

Derrick Rose ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD)

With Durant over $12,000, we need some cheaper players at each position and Rose is still affordable for his current role. As long as R.J. Barrett remains out, Rose should be in line for another 32 minutes with a 23.5% usage and 1.06 fantasy points per minute. We saw last night that Houston is miserable defensively and they play at the fastest pace in basketball. Rose has taken 16 and 13 field goal attempts in each of the past two games and the matchup is pristine with the minutes to back him. 

Honorable Mention 

Tyrese Maxey

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Cade Cunningham ($8,600 DK/$7,900 FD)

It’s a bit more likely to play him on FD as opposed to DK, but Cunningham is starting to be a little more consistent and the Pistons are still missing Jerami Grant. With him and Kelly Olynyk off the floor, Cunningham has a 31.7% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute with a 50.8% true shooting rate. It is only a 114-minute sample size, but this is a number one pick and the franchise player. His shot is still not trustworthy, so there is not a safety net at this salary. It’s possible to have big games against Malcolm Brogdon of the Pacers, just ask Jrue Holiday. 

Honorable Mention 

Bradley Beal

Value Spot 

Small Forward 

This will be one of – Durant, Duke, Kevin Knox, or Deni Avdija since Spencer Dinwiddie is expected to be out for the Wizards tonight. I’m not using anyone else as things stand because I’m not spending up here outside of Durant, so a cheaper option to offset his salary makes sense. 

Power Forward

Alperen Sengun ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)

With Christian Wood likely out again tonight, it’s Sengun Night Part 2: Revenge of the Goat. For some reason unknown to anyone with any amount of basketball IQ, Sengun played just 28 minutes last night and only had nine minutes through the first half. He did end up playing 28 minutes and this man went for 46.8 DK points. That’s the kind of rate that Jokic puts up. I’m not here to say that he’s locked in for 40 DraftKings again, but he’s still very affordable and he paid the field last night. Wood, Kevin Porter Jr., and Jalen Green are all still out. In that scenario, Sengun has played 199 minutes and has 1.20 fantasy points per minute and a 21.4% usage. Play the man. 

Honorable Mention 

Griffin

Value Spot 

Center 

Deandre Ayton/JaVale McGee – I don’t think Ayton sits out but the broadcast repeatedly said it was not the plan for Ayton to play 44 minutes. Maybe the Suns let him sit but even if they don’t, McGee is still in play because it could be more of a split

Myles Turner

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/15

There are 11 games scheduled tonight and the NBA continues to be a serious challenge right now. Nobody likes talking about it, but Covid is running through the league at a high rate. It’s frustrating, it’s making things difficult to figure out who’s needed in the lineups but that’s just the reality right now. Ghost and I would reiterate if you can’t be around for any portion of a slate, please just take the night off. Things are just changing so fast right now, so let’s get into what we know in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/15. 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Point Guard 

Trae Young ($10,700 DK/$10,100 FD) 

The salary is getting up there but it’s deserved considering Young has hit at least 55 DraftKings points for four straight games. The Magic are 13th in pace but they are 29th in defensive rating and they allow a 41% shooting rate to the pick-and-roll ball handler. Young is in that play type at the highest frequency in the league and he’s scoring the most points at 15.1. The next closest player is Luka at 12.6, so that’s a big split. Orlando is also 27th in points allowed in the paint, which gives Young plenty of assist chances. Young is fifth in points scored from drives to the basket as well. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DK/$8,600 FD)

The salary likely keeps him as a GPP target only but SGA could explode in this spot. He’s only 0.2 points behind the league lead for points scored per game in isolation and the Pelicans have only faced it the eighth-fewest frequency on the year. Lu Dort is out and when he’s off the floor, SGA is sitting on a 32% usage rate and 1.20 fantasy points per minute in 167 minutes. With the Pelicans ranking 26th in defensive rating, this is the best spot for SGA to put in 30 real points and flirt with 50+ fantasy points. 

Jrue Holiday ($7,500 DK/$8,000 FD) 

Let me be clear – if Khris Middleton is out for Milwaukee along with Giannis (protocols), Holiday is one of the highest priorities on the slate. It has only been a 138-minute sample, but Holiday has 1.39 fantasy points per minute and a 33.9% usage. He would be facing Malcolm Brogdon’s defense but the volume overcomes any concerns about that. Even if Middleton plays, it’s still 29.8% and 1.20 so there’s not a reason he can’t be a backbone of our lineups. I would fully expect him to be one of the higher rostered players on the evening. 

Honorable Mention 

Dejounte Murray (we’re going to have a talk if you don’t play him on FD)

Jalen Brunson 

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($8,500 DK/$8,200 FD) 

Call me a sucker but I’m hard-pressed to not look at Beal in this spot. Sacramento can’t defend a thing as they sit 27th in defensive rating and fifth in pace. That’s the perfect mix and Beal still has a 30.7% usage rate. The fantasy points per minute are just at 1.06 in part because the true shooting is just 52%, under his career rate. His 3-point shooting has been very poor at 26.8% on the season but Sacramento is 13th in FG% allowed from deep. Beal simply can’t continue to shoot like this from distance all season long and he’s been at 31.3% over the past five games. We could see flashes of last season’s Beal tonight as he’s still playing 36 minutes per night. 

Darius Garland ($7,900 DK/$7,500 FD) 

We always love teams against the Rockets since they lead the league in pace and that is a massive bump for Cleveland, who sits 21st in pace on the season. Houston is also in the bottom 10 in defensive rating so Garland should be able to pick on them. I like him as a double-double pick tonight and we can refer to the game against Sacramento two games ago to see his 50 DraftKings points upside. Garland scores 6.6 points from being the ball handler in the pick-and-roll and Houston allows the fourth-highest FG% against that play type. With 1.07 fantasy points per minute and a 26.8% on the season, Garland shouldn’t be under $8,000. 

Honorable Mention

Donovan Mitchell

Desmond Bane 

Value Spot

Small Forward 

Brandon Ingram ($9,100 DK/$8,800 FD)

The mini-stack between SGA and Ingram is very intriguing tonight. The Thunder are 19th in defensive rating and 16th in pace, which is a nice combo. Ingram leads the Pelicans with a 30% usage and 1.12 fantasy points per minute and he’s back to pushing 40 minutes when the games are competitive. With both teams being not very good, there’s a better chance for that to happen. Ingram is also third in points scored off screens this year and is shooting 51.1%. While that’s only two FGA per game, the Thunder allow the fifth-most points and the fourth-most field goal attempts. That can be an area that Ingram could really excel and with a lot of attention going to the Bucks, this mini-stack could combine for nearly 100 DraftKings points. 

Dillon Brooks ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD) 

The Trail Blazers played a hard-fought overtime game last night and now have to face the Grizzlies on a back-to-back. We should see plenty of scoring in this game as both teams are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating and Brooks flashed his upside last time out with 36 DK in just 27 minutes. Without Ja Morant this season, Brooks has a usage rate over 30% and you’re not finding that at this salary very often. Yes, he’s scoring dependent in a major way but the Blazers bleed points. 

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500 DK/$5,700 FD)

It’s yet to be seen if the field continues to flock to Brunson now that his salary is up where it should be, but Hardaway is going to be mostly ignored on this slate, I’m betting. Did you know that without Doncic on the floor, Hardaway has a higher usage rate than Brunson at 27.5% to 25.4%? The fantasy points per minute are nearly identical and THJ sits at 1.04. He’s going to do a lot less than Brunson if his shot isn’t falling but the Lakers continue to play at the second-fastest pace in the league and sit outside the top 10 in defensive rating. Hardaway can get hot from deep (he’s streaky and that helps explain 33.2% from deep this year) and the Lakers allow the sixth-most triples per game. This could be a sub-5% player that has the ability to post over 30 DraftKings points in a competitive game. 

Honorable Mention 

Middleton (if active a very appealing option)

Franz Wagner 

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

LeBron James/Anthony Davis 

I do want some type of exposure to this game on the Lakers side, as they have multiple role players missing in the Covid protocols. That leads me to think AD plays, and if he does it’s truly a smash spot. He’s in the top-six in paint points and touches while Dallas is 24th in points allowed in the paint. Davis is also 10th in free throw attempts per game so I can see him getting Kristaps Porzingis into foul trouble. If he can’t go, Bron is going to be very tempting. He’s playing so many minutes every night in part because the Lakers aren’t good enough to blow teams out. In the past two games without AD, he’s scored 59 and 67 DK points. Nobody on Dallas would be capable of sticking with him and with the game at 7:30, we should know before lock what the situation is. 

Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 DK/$9,000 FD)

The spot for Sabonis got so, so much better when Giannis got ruled out for this game and makes for a perfect correlation to the Bucks exposure we’ll want tonight. Despite the Pacers cutting his post touches from last year (not sure why that makes sense but I digress), Sabonis is still averaging the fourth-most points in the paint this year at 10.2. Milwaukee is second in paint points allowed but no Giannis changes that drastically. It’s also going to allow Sabonis to hit the glass more since Giannis is at 17.8 chances per night. Sabonis just under 20 chances per night with a conversion rate of 59.6%. He’s reportedly unhappy in Indiana and is trying to play his way out of there, and I’m here for it. 

Honorable Mention 

Porzingis

Larry Nance 

Value Spot

Center 

Nikola Jokic 

He doesn’t need to be talked about much at this point. *whispers* He’s not going to win MVP but he’s playing a lot better than last year when he won. Steph Curry and KD deserve to be ahead of him, but Denver might not win more than 15 games without him in their current state. He got ejected last game with about six minutes to go and Denver almost blew an 18 point lead. He’s going to smash this Minnesota interior defense. If you want to play him, enjoy your 60 DraftKings points. 

Bobby Portis ($7,200 DK/$7,700 FD) 

Portis is going to be a little easier to play on FD because of the positional flexibility. His moving to solely center on DK makes life difficult but I wonder if that pushes his rostership down. He sits at 1.17 fantasy points per minute without Giannis with a 25.2% usage rate and those rates are stagnant if Middleton is off the floor. My current plan is if Middleton plays, I’d want two of the main Bucks trio. If Middleton is out, I’ll make room for both Portis and Holiday and then let the model decide the next man in. 

Jakob Poeltl ($7,000 DK/$6,800 FD)

Poeltl is in the #FlowChart spot of Big Men vs. the Charlotte frontcourt, and the flow chart is nearly undefeated. I mean, Porzingis put up 50 DraftKings points in this spot. Poeltl averages 16.5 rebound chances per game with a 55% conversion rate and he’s in the top 12 in both paint touches and points scored. The Hornets are dead last in points and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint, and Poeltl is in line for a big double-double. 

Honorable Mention 

Clint Capela 

Andre Drummond (if Embiid is out, he’s $4,700 on DK)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/12

This slate only has five games on it and we’re going to change the approach just a little bit. There will still be a positional section, but I’m going to highlight two teams that are chalk on this slate and at least half the lineup should have players from the Dallas Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets. Let’s get into that and everything else on the slate in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/12 to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Brooklyn Nets – James Harden is Out 

The easiest play on the slate in the upper tier is Kevin Durant and I fully expect he’ll be the most popular. The difference between him and Harden is KD actually looks to be in top form while Harden is….well, not near that to be polite. Unless the form is round, then maybe (I’m chubby too, I’m not fat-shaming Harden. He’s just clearly not right). KD has a 35.9% usage rate and 1.66 fantasy points per minute when Harden is off the floor this year and Detroit just lost Jerami Grant to torn ligaments in his thumb. Good luck on guarding Durant, Pistons. 

Where things get interesting is the secondary Nets. I already have my heart set on Cam Thomas, the rookie guard who has started to get more minutes lately. When Durant sat out the game against the Houston Rockets, Thomas played 32 minutes and scored 23 DraftKings points while taking 15 shots. The minutes have been more stable for the last nine games and he’s hit double digits in real points five times. He’s been popping off some nights with Harden and KD active, so for $3,500, say less. I think the model will agree with me in the afternoon. 

I may wind up capping myself with those two players. Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, James Johnson, and Bruce Brown are all in the mix but flawed. For Mills, you are relying almost wholly on his shot. He leads the team in minutes without Harden this year but still only has a 19.6% usage rate and 0.80 fantasy points per minute. If I’m playing someone like that, Thomas is cheaper and I feel comfortable with the minutes. Detroit is tied for the second-highest FG% allowed from three, but Mills is not a strong priority right now. Aldridge’s price is just absurd to me as he needs to get close to 36 DraftKings points to hit 6x. With only 1.04 fantasy points per minute, it’s tough to see where that comes from. We’ll let the model dictate on Johnson and Brown but they are both under 0.80 fantasy points per minute on the season while missing Harden. 

Dallas Maverick – Luka Doncic is Out 

This situation is a little more cut and dry for me because it’s three players – Jalen Brunson, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr. After all, that trio carries the Mavericks when Luka is out. That’s my priority as well because Anthony Davis could sit for the Lakers and if that happens, I’d play Brunson and THJ and explore ways to pair Durant with LeBron James (not a lock but it’s possible). Brunson leads the team in court time without Luka and has a 25.8% usage rate with 1.06 fantasy points per minute, while KP is at almost 29% for his usage and 1.35 fantasy points per minute. Brunson is the ball distributor in the offense with a 37.1% assist are and his price is insulting for someone who needs to play 32 minutes or more. Luka also is the ball handler in the pick-and-roll at the fourth-highest frequency this year. The Thunder allows over 15 points per game to that play type. The pick-and-roll game with KP rolling to the bucket against the minimal resistance from OKC could be lethal tonight. THJ has the same fantasy points per minute as Brunson, and there will be more shots to go around for him. He has the lowest floor among the trio because if he’s not scoring, it’s going to be bad news. 

Point Guard 

Cole Anthony ($8,200 DK/$8,400 FD)

Anthony at what’s becoming a reasonable price for him against the Lakers, who play at the second-fastest pace and can’t guard the perimeter (looking at Russell Westbrook)? Sign me up. LA still is having some issues defensively even though they have climbed to 12th in defensive rating. Anthony is scoring over seven points per game in the pick-and-roll as the ball handler and he’s driving to the hoop almost 13 times per game. If Davis were to be out, that’s a big bonus for Anthony as well. Jalen Suggs being out has helped Anthony jump to new heights with a 28.9% usage and 1.20 fantasy points per minute. In this game environment, I will have serious interest. 

Honorable Mention 

Brunson/Thomas 

Shooting Guard 

Anfernee Simons ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD)

Looking for another very inexpensive guard? Hello, Anfernee Simons. With C.J. McCollum still out for sure and Damian Lillard questionable, Simons is going to be very popular. Even if Dame plays, Simons has been a strong fantasy producer with a 24.2% usage rate and 0.93 fantasy points per minute. With both off the court, the sample is very small at just 24 minutes. However, it’s tantalizing with a massive 36.9% usage rate and you simply can’t pass him up tonight. I believe the field starts with the Brunson/Simons combo at guard and that could help on the quest of potentially fitting KD/LeBron if it came to that. Oh, the Timberwolves play at the sixth-fastest pace and Patrick Beverly plays fake tough guy defense. 

Honorable Mention 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Cade Cunningham 

Small Forward

Shaddiq Bey ($4,800 DK/$4,800 FD)

Technically he’s under the threshold but with no Jerami Grant for the Pistons, that opens up a lot. They are still missing Kelly Olynyk and without those two on the floor, Bey creeps up to a 21.5% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute. Grant was attempting over five attempts per game as a spot-up shooter and if Bey takes some of those chances, that’s a nice bonus. The Nets give up the second-lowest FG% to spot-up shooters but it can’t hold at 33.4% all year long. After shooting 38% from deep last year, Bey is at 30.8% so far but the ice from deep is thawing. Over the past four games, he’s taking six per game and shooting 41.7%. He’s too cheap for the situation and makes a nice run-back to our Nets. Tonight he could be Shaddiq BEY-BEY just like Adam Cole BAY-BAY!

Honorable Mention 

Norman Powell

THJ

Power Forward

This is the easiest position of the night to fill because we have Porzingis, Durant, Bey, and possibly LeBron. If Davis is out, not only do I want LeBron but I would become more interested in Wendell Carter Jr. since the paint would be far more vulnerable. I can’t see much of a reason to stray away from this grouping tonight, especially if THJ is being played at SF. 

Center 

Karl-Anthony Towns

Jonas Valanciunas

Value Spot

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/11

We have just six games tonight and there is already a litany of players ruled out. Before we get into the slate, I just want to extend a thank you to Ghost for covering the large slates this week. He’s a beast and it was a massive help to get NFL Game by Game out this week. Now let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/11 and figure out what paths we need to take to see green screens tonight! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Point Guard 

Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK/$6,700 FD) 

Lowry feels like he’s nearly a lock button on FanDuel but he is plenty appealing on each site. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain out for the Miami Heat and the veteran played 39 minutes in this past game. While Tyler Herro has the usage lead at 31.3% when the two main cogs are off the floor, the fantasy points per minute are nearly identical with Lowry sitting at 1.04. He has a 39.4% assist rate with both teams short-handed, we should expect another huge workload here. 

De’Anthony Melton ($5,100 DK/$5,800 FD)

I will likely have no less than three Memphis Grizzlies in my lineups tonight since they will be without Dillon Brooks again, who is in the Covid protocols. Considering Ja Morant is also still out, Memphis is down a lot of firepower right now. With those two off the court, Melton is second on the team with 1.15 fantasy points per minute and he’s going to play 30 minutes again. The salary difference between him and Tyus Jones likely makes Melton popular, but that’s more than fine for me. Houston plays at the fastest pace in the league and is on a back-to-back, making this a game to target with a bullet point. 

Honorable Mention 

Dejounte Murray 

Steph Curry (one lineup with him when he’s this close to the record for the narrative)

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

Darius Garland ($7,800 DK/$7,600 FD)

While the price may seem a bit high, let’s not pretend that there isn’t a ceiling for Garland to hit. Sacramento is a top-eight team in pace and cannot defend as they sit 26th in defensive rating. That’s always a wonderful combination for the opposition and Garland leads the Cavaliers in usage rate this year at 27.2%. His fantasy points per minute are 1.06 and he’s also leading in assist rate at 32.8%. Both teams played last night but the Cavs had the luxury of a blowout, so they didn’t need to run the starters as long. The Kings allow the third-most points to the pick-and-roll ball-handler on the season and Garland averages seven points scored per contest. 

Desmond Bane ($7,200 DK/$6,600 FD)

Part of me can’t believe we’re talking about Bane over $7,000 but he clearly deserves it with the situation at hand. We mentioned before that the Rockets play at a breakneck pace and the Grizzlies are 13th so the total is going to be high. Both teams are also in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and Bane has a 27.1% usage rate when Morant and Brooks aren’t on the floor. He’s also only at a true shooting rate of 48.6% so there is room for improvement. The Rockets allow the fourth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts and that’s in the wheelhouse for Bane. He’s shooting over 40% from beyond the arc and I’ll be betting his 3-point prop almost surely tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Zach LaVine (a bit pricey)

Derrick White

Value Spot 

Small Forward 

To be frank, this position is flat awful tonight. I’m already looking at eating it with just a punt play. Just look at DraftKings where after LaVine, the most expensive option is Jae’Sean Tate at $6,800. It’s ugly. I’m hoping for a value spot to open but one player I will point out is Garrison Matthews for the Rockets. It feels like he’s due to bite me but he’s been lethal from deep lately. Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green remain out for Houston, but the metrics still aren’t kind for Matthews with a 14.7% usage and 0.71 fantasy points per minute. The 3-point shot is the great equalizer at this salary on DraftKings and the Grizzlies have allowed the third-highest field goal rate from deep. If Matthews is the last man in, I can live with it. Hopefully, something pops up during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Harrison Barnes

Bojan Bogdanovic (these two tell you where we’re at for the position)

Value Spot

Power Forward 

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,500 DK/$6,600 FD)

This is not to say no other Grizzlies are in play, but JJJ will round out the players that have the most attention for me. He’s not been a Win Daily favorite in the past but he’s cut back on the fouls this season. Last season he average 5.9 per 36 minutes and this year it’s down to 4.5 which is significant. Triple J has also been a monster in this situation for Memphis with a 34.4% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute. and he can pop out to the 3-point line to hit that shot as well. The game environment does him a lot of favors and if he continues to stay out of foul trouble, he makes for a strong play tonight. 

This position is much like the SF position in that the options are slim to none. Jackson could wind up being stone chalk tonight. 

Honorable Mention

Draymond Green 

Evan Mobley (I prefer a center we’ll talk about)

Value Spot 

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($11,900 DK/$11,200 FD)

To the surprise of nobody, Jokic is in our crosshairs yet again. I mentioned this in the Discord but one of the reasons he’s an option every single game is the Denver Nuggets need him to do everything for their team. Michael Porter Jr. isn’t coming back until next season at the earliest. Jamal Murray is not close to returning yet. For Denver to have any hopes of clinging to the playoffs until Murray hits the floor, Joker has to be the entire team. That’s reflected by his 1.82 fantasy points per minute and 33.9% usage rate on the year. We just saw him drop a triple-double against this team and he can do that every night. San Antonio is 12th in points allowed in the paint but Jokic scores the second-most points in the post-up game and they can’t defend him down low. 

Jarrett Allen ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD)

I love Allen tonight and he’s averaging a little over 30 minutes in back-to-back situations this season. He leads the league in paint touches at 12.9 and he’s second in points scored in the paint to go along with ranking in the top eight in rebound chances per game. Sacramento is 28th in rebounding in the paint and they rank sixth in points allowed in the paint. However, Richaun Holmes is still out. Who’s defending Allen tonight? Alex Len? Tristan Thompson? Please. Vernon Carey Jr. of the Hornets went 7/2/0 in jus 11 minutes last night. Cleveland is not playing Allen for 11 minutes tonight and he is going to wreck the interior of this defense. A bonus could be De’Aaron Fox takes the third-most field goal attempts from drives to the basket this season. Allen (and Mobley) are both in the top 20 in blocks per game with Mobley sitting seventh and Allen at 19th. 

Honorable Mention 

Joel Embiid 

Rudy Gobert 

Value Spot 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/09

After one of the most bizarre slates of the season so far, we thankfully have just three games to focus on tonight. That certainly helps make the choices far more condensed and we don’t have 26 teams to track this evening. We will need some more information on certain teams before we can full build but let’s talk about it in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/09 to find paths to green!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Should rest candidates, such as Mike Conley, end up missing tonight’s game for their respective teams, it will be a two-studded lineup for me, especially with the value we already have with San Antonio missing Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson.

Adam: That likely depends on the Utah Jazz, Philadelphia 76ers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Denver Nuggets. Those four teams played last night so they are prime suspects to sit someone. If they are all full strength, it could be more of a balanced slate.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Dejounte Murray. He’s averaging a near triple-double over his last 8 games with a 26.6% usage rate and logging over 35 minutes per contest. The 20.1/8.9/9.6 scoring line shows just how much he’s involved on the offensive side of the ball and on the glass, but he’s also been an All-NBA defender, as usual.

Adam: Nikola Jokic. He’s played three games in a back-to-back situation and he’s averaging 28.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. On the season with the players missing that Denver still is without, he has a 33.6% usage and 1.83 fantasy points per minute. The matchup against Jakob Poeltl of the Spurs doesn’t do anything to slow him down either.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Russell Westbrook. I’ll keep this one simple if LeBron and AD both play in this game, I won’t roster Russ.

Adam: The easy answer continues to be Russell Westbrook as long as the big three for LA is active. However, I’ll add Joel Embiid just because A. I prefer Jokic, B. It’s a tougher than average spot against the Jazz and C. Embiid has only played one back-to-back and he only played 30 minutes for a 19/9/3 line in that game.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: A Spurs mini-stack of Dejounte Murray and one of McDermott/Walker/Forbes/Young/Bates-Diop will be in the winning lineup. Check the model and use the appropriate value plays.

Adam: Joker and I believe we’ll get a value piece from one of the teams I mentioned above. If they do not, the Spurs are likely going to be without Keldon Johnson. If a player like Thad Young draws the start, that’s going to be hard to not look at considering he’s $3,300 on DraftKings.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Dejounte Murray and the Spurs take down Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in what will be their first meeting over the next three days, thanks to Murray’s 25-point triple-double.

Adam: Dejounte Murray and Jokic both have triple-doubles with Joker going for another 30+ points.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/07

Fortunately, the Hornets are not on the slate tonight so hopefully, we get a relatively normal slate. What does stand out is the number of big names on such a short slate but as of now, we have no value to jam them in. It should create an interesting dynamic so let’s answer some questions in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/07!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Unless more value plays open it throughout the day when injury reports get released, I’ll be going with one stud.

Adam: It doesn’t look like there is going to be an overwhelming amount of value, so it will likely be mostly balanced with just one stud player despite the star power on the slate. Of course, this is the NBA and that can change very quickly.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: I’ll let the field worry about which combination of Luka Doncic, James Harden, and Kevin Durant they want to play; give me Dejounte Murray against the Knicks on the second half of a back-to-back/

Adam: Lock is a difficult word on a slate that includes Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Anthony Davis, Jayson Tatum, and LeBron James. However, with every dollar in salary being important as we stand, playing Dejounte Murray at $9,500 is very appealing. Just from the fantasy points per minute respect, Murray is at 1.33. Harden and KD are at 1.32 and 1.34 and the only other player that is higher than Murray is Luka at 1.46. That extra $1,400 on DraftKings could be very important. Murray has only played one back-to-back so far but he played almost 35 minutes so that is not a concern.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Should both LeBron James and Anthony Davis play, there’s a 0% chance I roster Russell Westbrook tonight in any format.

Adam: Russell Westbrook. He’s the player that most “doesn’t belong” in the elite salary range as long as the big three for the Lakers is active. He hasn’t exceeded 47 DraftKings points in the past three games and I don’t believe any other player in this range has a floor of 28 DraftKings points in 36 minutes.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Dejounte Murray and Derrick Rose. With Tom Thibodeau reportedly looking to make changes to the Knicks lineup, I expect him to rely heavily on a player whom he had been with for six seasons in Chicago and now reunited in New York.

Adam: Malik Monk and Murray. For the Lakers, Carmelo Anthony is questionable which would help Monk a little bit as the Lakers would need that shooting even more. On a slate that is currently starved for value, Monk stands out a bit with 33 and 29 minutes in the past two games and Boston is ninth in the frequency of 3-point shots given up. Monk is shooting 36.8% but he’s been hot lately, 50% in the last four games.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Dejounte Murray leads the NBA slate in scoring.

Adam: Doncic and Harden have dueling triple-doubles with the Mavericks pulling out a close win and Harden not hitting value on his salary again.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/4

There are just six games tonight and lock is not until 8 PM, so be sure to note that when building your lineups. There are also a lot of teams on back-to-backs so it’s a really great idea to be around close to lock. That is always the case but it’s even more important tonight. Let’s get into the plays that look great as we stand in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/4 and find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

NOTE – We’ll discuss the Bucks without Giannis in the power forward slot instead of talking about them in each position. 

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,500 DK/$10,500 FD)

The high end of point guard tonight has some seriously strong options but Doncic may be the best one. He’s coming from facing the 30th ranked defensive rating in the Pelicans last night to 29th tonight against the Grizzlies. Even if Kristaps Porzingis is back in action tonight (questionable), Luka is still sporting a 36.2% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute. The play-type data is excellent for Luka as well because he’s second in scoring as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, while Memphis is bottom 10 in points allowed and points per possession defending the ball handler. Doncic is in another smash spot tonight. 

Jordan Poole ($6,400 DK/$6,700 FD)

This is not to say that Steph Curry is likely to get shut down, but Dejounte Murray will draw the bulk of the defensive assignment. That could push a little more towards Poole tonight and he already has a 26% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute. Both Poole and Curry are in the top four in points scored off screens and shoot over 41.5%. San Antonio allows teams to shoot just under 40% and these players are both talented scorers. You can only play Poole in GPP and if your script includes Curry having a quiet game, but he could be a slate winner if he goes for 45-50 DraftKings points. 

Honorable Mention 

De’Aaron Fox 

Value Spot

Shooting Guard 

C.J. McCollum ($9,000 DK/$8,200 FD)

We already know that Anfernee Simons is out for the Trail Blazers, as is Damian Lillard. McCollum will need to do legitimately everything for the Blazers and in the 43-minute sample size this season, he has a 35.9% usage and 1.07 fantasy points per minute. That sounds very pedestrian but that’s with a 39.8% true shooting rate. I don’t need to tell you that McCollum is far more talented a shooter than that and even at $9,000, the usage is massive. Boston does not have the best perimeter defense and played last night, so McCollum could wind up being lower-rostered with Bucks chalk on the way. 

Tyler Herro ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD)

This is what Ghost wrote about Herro just yesterday – 

“With Jimmy Butler out for a few more games and Bam Adebayo out 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury, welcome to the Tyler Herro season. If you’ve been with us since he entered the NBA, you know how much I love his game, in addition to having a ton of preseason futures on him to win both Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player, which, I must say, are looking pretty good right now. Sporting a 29.6% usage rate on the season thus far, Herro sees that number increase to 32.6% with both Butler and Adebayo off the court, including a rise in FPPM from 1.07 to 1.18.“

The Heat face the Bucks this evening and no team allows more 3-point attempts than Milwaukee (although the Heat are close). Herro will need to continue to carry the offense in this one and in GPP, Duncan Robinson will have a ton of chances to get hot from deep. Just understand that the floor is under 10 DraftKings points. 

Honorable Mention 

Value Spot (Not likely moving from McCollum, Herro, or Middleton)

Small Forward 

Jayson Tatum ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD) 

The expectation would be that Jaylen Brown makes his return to the Celtics lineup tonight but even if he does, he hasn’t been playing that well. Tatum is still carrying the C’s as much as he can and he has a 32.4% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute. His true shooting is down a bit as well at just 50.2% but Portland can help that. They are in the bottom three in defensive rating and Tatum is fourth in points scored in isolation. Portland has defended that play type well so far but opponents have shot just 38.5%. That’s likely to go up and Tatum is under $10,000, which is a green light for me. 

Dillon Brooks ($6,900 DK/$6,000 FD)

Is it finally the night we get Brooks right? He’s been on the end of two blowouts so far but hopefully, the Mavericks are up to the task. He will likely be asked to try and stick with Luka to the best of his ability and let’s not forget his usage rate is over 32% when Ja Morant is off the floor. Brooks is going to have a game where he scores 25+ real points and doesn’t leave the floor very often. This game checks the boxes of him needing to mirror Luka’s minute and try to score along with him, and I’m very interested. 

Honorable Mention 

Paul George (especially FD)

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Heat have no Jimmy Butler and no Bam Adebayo, which greatly reduces their defensive capabilities. Giannis rested in the least game so he should be ready to roll tonight and he’s averaging 1.70 fantasy points per minute. Miami is only 17th in rebounding as it is, which won’t get better tonight. Giannis has 18.4 rebounding chances per night and there’s going to be nobody to stop him inside. The Heat are in the bottom five in defending the isolation play type and Giannis has scored the fourth-most points. On top of that, Giannis is shooting about 5% lower this year than last year, which means he still has room to improve. 

Well, that changed. Giannis is doubtful tonight and that means the trio of Bobby Portis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday can be the focal point of our lineups. The defense of the Heat is still vulnerable and they all have a usage rate of at least 24.6% (Middleton is at 36.7%) and the fantasy points per minute are at 1.25 for the latter two while Portis has 10.7 on the season. None of them are priced up to where they should be in this scenario and I will have at least two, possibly all three together. We’ll refer to the model to see which secondary player(s) get the biggest bump but Grayson Allen has my attention with the Heat allowing a 48.5% 3-point frequency. 

With the Bucks needing to be a priority and the other options that we can shuffle into this spot, Portis is likely going to be my guy here and either a value or a multi-position eligible player will be the main options. 

Honorable Mention 

Jaren Jackson Jr. 

Value Spot 

Center 

Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$9,200 FD)

Unless the Bulls roll into this contest short a player, my plan is not to pay up for Vuc on this slate. With 2-3 Bucks, it doesn’t appear to be the best spend because all of Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine hover around 1.15 fantasy points per minute and bite into the ceilings. Still, the Nets are on a back-to-back and they’re going to have a tough time defending him. Vucevic has almost six touches in the paint this year and he can go out to the 3-point line. Brooklyn has been better guarding the paint at seventh in points in the paint allowed, but they are 20th in paint rebounds. I won’t be surprised if he’s around 45 DraftKings points, but not much higher. 

Richaun Holmes ($6,000 DK/$6,800 FD)

The Kings could be without Harrison Barnes and Marvin Bagley tonight but even if they play, Holmes could be very sneaky tonight. Holmes averages 17.8 rebound chances per night and the Clippers are just 16th in rebounding total and 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint. He’s also ninth in paint touches and can keep up if the Clippers elect to go small. Holmes has an 18.6% usage and 1.13 fantasy points per minute so 30-32 minutes should pay off the price tag here.

Honorable Mention 

Jusuf Nurkic

Value Spot 

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